YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £51.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York:
Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (Edward Lewis), 5 (Orion’s Bow), 2 (Moviestar) & 4 (Line Of Reason)
Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Dee Ex Bee), 5 (Fleet Review) & 8 (Lansky)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cracksman) & 8 (Venice Beach)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Churchill) & 3 (Ulysses)
Leg 5 (4.15): 15 (Theydon Grey), 10 (My Reward) & 11 (Oceane)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Zap), 6 (Green Fortune) & 13 (Areen Faisal)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Seven of the eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 in the opening event, whilst high numbers have generally been favoured when the ground is riding on the fast side. Only seven of the 20 declarations qualify via the weigh trend this time around. With conditions (hopefully) set to favour the top stalls early at the meeting at the very least, the likes of EDWARD LEWIS, ORION’S BOW and MOVIESTAR post ticks in both of the relevant boxes, with LINE OF REASON (trap 3) added into the mix as last year’s gold medallist broke from stall five. Paul Midgley (LINE OF REASON) has saddled three horses to finish in the frame on day one of the meeting during the last six years and on each occasion, the Placepot positions were claimed in this event.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.
Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):
5-2-19-4 (20 ran-good to firm)
5-3-7-6 (20 ran-good to soft)
15-8-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10-5 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-18-13-15 (19 ran-good to firm)
3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
15-16-8 (15 ran-good)
18-13-3 (17 ran-good to firm)
Record of course winners in the opening event:
2/10—Out Do (2 x good)
1/3—Gracious John (good)
1/13—Line Of Reason (good)
2/5—Thesme (2 x good)
3/15—Hoof It (good to firm)
1/8—Robot Boy (good)
2.25: Trainer Mark Johnston (DEE EX BEE) is looking to win the race for the fourth time, albeit his last winner was recorded way back in 2004 which for a trainer of Mark's distinction, is somewhat surprising. Aidan O'Brien's two victories in the contest emerged way before Mark's last gold medallist whereby FLEET REVIEW would not be winning out of turn. Both trainers are saddling their fair share of winners just now, though they can hardly the match the recent Jeremy Noseda ratio of 4/5, his loser having finished second behind a Sir Michael Stoute hot-pot on Monday. Jeremy saddles LANSKY with win and place claims after a debut success at Winsdor though as a son of Dark Angel, some more showers would not have gone amiss for connections of this ‘Dewhurst’ entry. Accordingly, DEE EX BEE and FLEET REVIEW are marginally preferred from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
6-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5-8 (10 ran-good to soft)
8-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-good to firm)
3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)
2-7-11 (13 ran-good to soft)
9-3 (7 ran-good)
7-10-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
9-4 (7 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-good to soft)
6-8-5 (8 ran-good)
5-1 (7 ran-good)
6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (6 ran-good)
7-2-3 (9 ran-good)
1-3 (5 ran-good)
2-4 (5 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
8-4-6 (9 ran-good)
Record of the course winners in the 'Acomb':
1/1—Ulshaw Bridge (good)
1/1—Wells Farhh Go (good to soft)
3.00: Aidan O’Brien (whose previous – only - success in this event was gained back in 2003 with Powerscourt before last year’s victory with Idaho) confuses matters given that the popular Irish trainer saddles three of the eight runners (three of seven the previous year without success), with the Chester Vase bronze winner VENICE BEACH expected to lead his two stable companions home on this occasion. Whether any of Aidan's runners will be able to cope with CRACKSMAN is debateable however, with John Gosden’s Frankel colt gaining the bronze medal at Epsom before going one better to snare silver at Curragh in the two Derby events at the tracks this year. CRACKSMAN surely deserves to get his first Group race under his belt here.
Favourite factor: 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.
3.35: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 14 of the last 20 renewals of the 'Juddmonte' between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 10-4 in the process. This is the race in which Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard in the inaugural year of 1972. Since then the 45 renewals have produced the following vintage trends; 3YO: 15 wins--4YO: 21 wins--5YO: 9 wins. That said, the three-year-olds might gain the day on this occasion with BARNEY ROY and CHURCHILL having been declared, though Sir Michael Stoute will be just as confident as the other connections I’ll wager, having offered the green light to his four-year-old representative ULYSSES who is seemingly still progressing from race to race. ULYSSES ran out of gas at Ascot in the ‘King George’ last time out whereby this drop back in trip will suit. If you fancy the main protagonists to be thwarted, CLIFFS OF MOHER and SHUTTER SPEED (could have done with more juice in the ground) appear to be the pick of the opposition.
Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders have won this event during the last 19 years alongside a joint favourite. 14 of the 20 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Every winner during the previous 11 years had been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, before Arabian Queen scored at 50/1 to inflict one of just two defeats during the career of Golden Horn (4/9) in the contest two years ago.
Record of course winners in the 'Juddmonte' field:
1/1—My Dream Boat (good to soft)
1/1—Shutter Speed (soft)
4.15: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the eight contests thus far, with THEYDON GREY deserving top billing, the four-year-old coming to the gig on a four timer. Georgia Cox’s mount receives the benefit of the five pound claimer in the saddle who remains great value for the allowance. Throw in the fact that William Haggas is by far the most successful trainer at the meeting during the last six years (sixteen winners) and THEYDON GREY jumps off the page. MY REWARD cannot be overlooked given his record of two gold medals and one of the silver variety in races contested over two miles or more, whilst last year’s winner OCEANE completes my trio against the field. Trainer Alan King looks to have mapped this race out for his five-year-old gelding again, given that OCEANE is only one pound ‘wrong’ compared to twelve months ago taking the official rating and weight into consideration.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include two (9/2 & 5/2) winners.
Course winners in the marathon contest:
1/1—Saigon City (good to firm)
1/1—Magic Cirsle (good)
1/2—Oceane (good to firm)
1/2—Edge Of Sanity (good to firm)
3/4—Theydon Grey (2 x good to firm & good)
4.55: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less. Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of the race and comes to the party on a hat trick this time around. Stable companion AREEN FAISAL will be preferred my many of Richard’s supporters with Paul Hanagan doing the steering, but has Richard demanded the services of a claimer in order for ZAP to run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap? GREEN FORTUNE is the other William Haggas runner on the card and with Willie being one of four trainers who has saddled three winners on the first day of the meeting during the last six years, his Sayif colt boasts definite claims. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to KILAGIA who represents Mark Johnston who probably deserves to win the race having saddled the second (20/1), third (10/1) and fourth (50/1) placed runners twelve months ago!
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via 15 renewals of this two-year-old handicap. Six of the last nine winners have scored at 33/1-33/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.
Course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Zap (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
8 runners—Mark Johnston (1/23 – loss of 12 points)
6—Aidan O’Brien (0/1)
4—Richard Fahey (3/81 – loss of 62 points)
4—David O’Meara (4/54 - +18)
3—Andrew Balding (3/8 - +27)
3—Tim Easterby (8/49 - +41)
3—Richard Hannon (0/13)
3—Kevin Ryan (2/29 – loss of 21 points)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (3/13 - +13)
2—Mick Channon (0/9)
2—Roger Charlton (0/2)
2—Clive Cox (0/1)
2—Michael Easterby (0/8)
2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 3 points)
2—William Haggas (11/27 - +31)
2—Charlie Hills (0/9)
2—Iain Jardine (1/7 - +14)
2—Paul Midgley (1/17 – loss of 2 points)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/10)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
83 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Carlisle: £168.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Worcester: £39.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Kempton: £185.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced