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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3

Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1

Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)

Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential.  This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing.  Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.

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Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions.  There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future.  It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings.  SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths.  The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see.  That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

1/4—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event.  Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on.  IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again.  Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago.  Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.  12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.

 

3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap.  AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)

1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year.  I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list.  Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:

1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)

 

4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY.  That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

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Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

201: £53.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.8% units went through – 8/1 & 1/2*

Race 2: 27.1% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 -16/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

Race 5: 87.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/4* - 6/1

Race 6: 54.3% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 11/4 – 16/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 3 (Heartwarming) & 9 (Satisfying)

Leg 2 (6.25): 7 (Manor Park), 2 (Sharja Silk) & 1 (Ghostwatch)

Leg 3 (7.00): 6 (George Villiers) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (7.35): 7 (Jack Regan), 3 (Infastructure) & 2 (Corgi)

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Leg 5 (8.05): 1 (Cross Counter) & 4 (Al Muffrih)

Leg 6 (8.40): 11 (Railport Dolly), 13 (Chantresse) & 5 (Fondest)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.55: To commence, I should point out that there are no course winners at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought I had forgotten to include the service today!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that it’s worth noting that HEARTWARMING was withdrawn from a race at Nottingham at the back end of last month on account of the soft ground, despite having been backed on the exchanges prior to being taken out of the contest.  Clive Cox looks sure to go ahead with his Showcasing filly here as she has no other entries at the time of writing, notwithstanding tonight’s ground which should just about be perfect for racing on the level.  SATISFYING is the only rival to be standing up against the projected favourite on the exchanges, with just threepenny and sixpenny bits around for ZAPLA.  That said, that is more than is being spent on Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubawi filly Vivionn who will surely need a distance of ground before beginning to show the best of her potential.  Against that however, we should observe that the dam (Giant’s Play) was only beaten ‘three parts’ at the first time of asking on Kempton’s all weather surface.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/3 favourite was beaten when securing a Placepot position, flanked by horses which were returned at 8/1 and 5/1.

 

6.25: A ‘dual purpose’ trainer (Anthony Honeyball) won the first running of this event twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Alan King to follow suit, with Alan proving so successful with three-year-old stayers in the making these last few years.  Alan saddles MANOR PARK here with his progressive Medicean gelding now stepping up two and a half furlong in trip, whereby nothing can be taken as read prior to flag fall.  Alan has proved himself to be a good judge at this level however and Martin Harley’s mount should be the one in the field to bustle up Charlie Appleby’s projected market leader GHOSTWATCH.  Not the only horse to have endured traffic problems at Chester last time out, GHOSTWATCH has been made favourite on three of his four assignments to date, only scoring on one occasion thus far.  The other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly is SHARJA SILK who was doing all his best work at the finish over twelve furlongs at Ascot the last day.  The additional quarter of a mile should certainly suit Roger Varian’s Dubawi colt.

Favourite factor: Last year’s biggest favourite casualty on the Placepot front occurred when the 6/5 jolly failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame in this event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

7.00: Although there is some each way support for BAMBASTIC coming in as light begins to appear in the sky over Bristol this morning, this race should chiefly concern GEORGE VILLIERS and MASHAHEER in a contest which is likely to produce several future winners (well worth recording).  The main pair are marginally listed in order of preference, though the market has already spoken up in favour of the latter named William Haggas representative.  That said, there was plenty of like about the win of GEORGE VILLIERS back in November at Kempton when shrugging off as many as seven rivals who all had chances in the last furlong.  ‘George’ led a long way from home and despite looking vulnerable when racing well wide of the far rail after the ‘cut away’, the Dubawi gelding showed great determination with the jockey not having to go for everything close home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished nearer last than first (ninth of eleven contenders) when over 76% of the remaining Placepot units in leg three went up in smoke.

 

7.35: I tend to find that I have better luck with Amanda Perrett’s runners at each way prices whereby I am overlooking the chance of Desert Path in favour of JACK REGAN, INFASTRUCTURE and CORGI in a typically fascinating Sandown event.  There is no surprise that this race has already lost its original ‘dead eight’ stats as Sandown hosts more six/seven runners races (under both codes) than any other track in the land, or so my experience tells me, invariably leading to great Placepot puzzles on the majority of occasions.

Favourite factor: Over half of the live units made it through to the penultimate leg twelve months ago, despite the (9/4) market leader finishing out with the washing.  The fact that the second and third favourites filled another ‘short field frame’ helped the majority of ‘Potters’ out twelve months ago.

 

8.05: Another classic encounter of the Sandown kind, albeit I am playing on words to a fashion with CROSS COUNTER making plenty of appeal given the ‘8.6’ quote on the exchanges overnight.  What has to be taken into account however, is that Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old is asked to give seven pounds to AL MUFFRIH whereby the top weight will only be backed by yours truly from a win and a Placepot perspective.  10-1 is a heavy burden for one so young, which is why I will probably pass up the each way option as I cannot believe that William Buick will be hard on the Teofilo gelding if his chance of winning the race has gone.  I can’t help myself putting Charlie’s raider in the mix though, alongside the Sea The Stars foal AL MUFFRIH.  Elwazir also has plenty of scope for improvement holding definite Placepot claims.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

8.40: Only three-year-olds can be seriously taken into account in these mixed vintage handicaps at this time of year, especially in the case of a ‘fillies’ only event.  CHANTRESSE is a northern challenger to consider here (see favourite stats below) given that the somewhat unusual nine furlong trip could play to her strengths.  RAILPORT DOLLY is another in the field that could benefit for this type of distance, whilst the Placepot chance for FONDEST is there for all to see, albeit the slightly cramped 9/4-5/2 odds on offer at the time of writing dilute confidence in backing the James Fanshawe raider, albeit the trainer has been back among the winners of late after a lean period.  Just one winner in May via 35 runners should emphasize my point.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (northern trained) 9/4 favourite duly obliged for the Mark Johnston team and plenty of Mark’s followers.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

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7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 17th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 36.5% units went through – 13/2 – 9/1 – 11/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 65.9% of the remaining units when through – 7/2* - 9/2 – 5/1

Race 3: 52.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 5/4*

Race 4: 59.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 10/3*

Race 5: 61.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*

Race 6: 89.2% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/4** - 7/4**

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Elhafei) & 2 (Aurum)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Jaawaal), 11 (Porth Swtan) & 7 (History Writer)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Jackstar), 7 (Van Beethoven) & 8 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Symbolization) & 1 (Purser)

Leg 5 (4.10): 10 (Frank Bidge), 6 (Plutonian), 7 (Almoreb) & 1 (Fire Brigade)

Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Msayyan) & 2 (Kew Gardens)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

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1.50: John Gosden has saddled the last three renewals of this event when represented whereby the chance for ELHAFEI is there for all to see, especially for people like yours truly who are besotted by statistics!  John has saddled five winners at this meeting during the last two years and there is every chance that the trend could be extended at the first time of asking in 2018.  That said, Charlie Appleby has declared his late May foal AURUM (Exceed And Excel colt) and with Charlie currently boasting ‘recent’ stats of 15/31, William Buick’s mount has to be taken seriously.  Giving racecourse experience away plus an additional two months in age might prove be a tough ask however, despite the confidence on the exchanges in the dead of night.  If you want to take on the likely market leaders, Robsdelight looks to be an above average type from the Gay Kelleway yard.  Ibraz is a likely improver following a half decent debut effort on the other side of the heath at Newmarket last July.

Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame.  That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2.  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

2.25: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, the ‘Alex Scott’ event for three-year-olds. PORTH SWTAN is well exposed compared to every other runner in the contest though with the Charlie Hills yard in fine form at present, that experience is offered as a positive factor rather than a negative one.  That said, John Gosden (see stats in the opening event) saddles JAAWAAL with obvious claims, whilst David Menuisier’s Canford Cliffs colt HISTORY WRITER ran well in a warm race at Sandown last year.  Global Art was weak in the market at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame.  That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2.  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less

 

3.00: I Am A Dreamer is as weak as a kitten on the exchanges overnight and yet punters have not been readily queuing up to hammer into Aidan O’Brien’s Scat Daddy newcomer VAN BEETHOVEN at the time of writing.  I’m wondering if the fact that Aidan’s last twelve runners have been beaten has anything to do with that scenario, given that four favourites were included in those recent results, notwithstanding that all twelve started at a top price of 5/1.  Either way, YNYS MON and JACKSATE enter my Placepot equation as value for money types as I investigate the ‘exchanges’ later this morning.

Favourite factor: Both renewals have been won by (7/2 & 4/9) market leaders thus far.

 

3.35: Kevin Ryan has already saddled three turf winner this term (from eight runners) whereby plenty of respect is offered to inmate Stormbringer who was ‘only’ a 16/1 chance in the ‘Gimcrack’ last year following a facile victory at Redcar at the second time of asking.  This looks a tough heat however with both SYMBOLIZATION and PURSER having been declared by the powerful respective yards of Charlie Appleby and John Gosden who have been saddling winners for fun of late.  I’m not going to choose between the pair this time around as much might have been left to work on by one or t’other for later in the season.  Suffice to say that even if that were true, both horses could be a cut above this opposition.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.

 

4.10: Six time winner FRANK BRIDGE is three from four on good to soft ground and with Eve Johnson Houghton among the winners of late, Charles Bishop’s mount is the each way call in the contest, hoping that trap four does not count against the five-year-old.  PLUTONIAN, ALMORAB and FIRE BRIGADE are added into the Placepot mix though coming from a top stall number of seven between them, I’m hoping that the ground is fair on both sides of the course.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured the bronze medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Fire Brigade (soft)

1/3—Red Tea (good)

1/4—Secret Art (good to soft)

 

4.45: Eleven of the last twelve winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of MSAYYAN and KEW GARDENS this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference given the slight worry of the O’Brien horses at this early stage of the season as outlined in a race earlier on the card. That and the fact that John Gosden (MSAYYAN) has saddled two of the last three winners of this Listed event.  If the trend of shorter priced winning horses is broken this time around, Dark Acclaim could prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one favourites have secured Placepot positions in the last eighteen years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Kew Gardens (good)

 

 

Record of the two course winners in the 7th (on Placepot) race on the card:

2/7—Accession (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Medeival (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 8th April

EXETER – APRIL 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £36.20 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 70.5% units went through – 3/1, 11/4* & 7/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 & 5/2 (Evens)

Race 3: 59.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4*, 8/1 & 6/1

Race 4: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*

Race 5: 53.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2* & 8/1

Race 6: 34.7% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1, 20/1 & 9/2** (9/2**)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 5 (Under the Woods) & 7 (Oh Dear Oh Dear)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Show On The Road), 5 (I See You Well) & 7 (Doc Carver)

Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Duhallow Lad), 3 (Caspar King) & 4 (The Gipper)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Alberto’s Dream) & 2 (The Kings Writ)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Gonnabegood), 5 (Shoofly Milly), 13 (Kayf Tiger) & 3 (Mister Drifter)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Colt Lightning) & 5 (Plantagenet)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

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2.05: It should be a case of UNDER THE WOODS running a race in his own time when securing the contest, though you might have read similar words to your cost down the years.  Thankfully the favourite will not attract a working man’s wager so not too many fingers would be burned if the Evan Williams raider fails to run to the best of his form.  Should that be the case, OH DEAR OH DEAR is offered up as the insurance call.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 market leader found one too good when secured a Placepot position.

 

2.35: It’s interesting to note that Philip Hobbs has put Michael Nolan up again on SHOW ON THE ROAD, given that Richard Johnson rides at the meeting.  It’s good to see young pilots given their chance and hopefully the Flemensfirth heavy ground course winner will go close again today.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of I SEE YOU WELL (fair each way chance – ignore the 14/1 trade press quote) and DOC CARVER.  Lord Napier is a worthy favourite but the current odds make no appeal whereby I’m hoping that the Bowen raider finishes out of the frame.

Favourite factor: Last year’s even money favourite let supporters down from a win perspective and from a Placepot perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Show On The Road (heavy)

3/6—Trans Express (2 x sot & good)

 

3.10: Two outsiders have come in for some support overnight, with course winner CASPAR KING marginally preferred to THE GIPPER of the pair.  Whether either horse will be able to keep tabs on DUHALLOW LAD at the business end of proceedings is another matter entirely.  It will be interesting to see if the support continues through the day, whilst the latter named Alan Jones representative was very impressive when scoring the last day.  Towcester can be one of most stamina sapping courses in the land. The Bay Birch won there on heavy ground just ten days ago and the race might have left its mark, as will the fifteen pound hike in his handicap mark.  Major Hindrance would be considered as the reserve nomination accordingly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

1/1—Major Hindrance (heavy)

1/1—Caspar King (soft)

 

3.40: Although the other five runners are not on offer at huge prices this morning, it seems that only THE KINGS WRIT is capable of stopping ALBERTO’S DREAM from securing a nap hand (five-timer), especially as trainer Tom Lacey cannot do a thing wrong just now.  Tom has saddled six of his last eight runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 18 points of level stake profit for good measure.  ALBERTO’S DREAM will not enhance the LSP a great deal today but that said, Tommy O’Brien should complete his hat trick aboard the nine-year-old gelding in this grade/company.  GENERAL GIRLING is expected to lead the others home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader found the 7/2 third favourite too strong when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first two horses home qualify relating to each way bets and Placepot ‘success’.

 

4.15: Jeremy Scott has quietly declared a couple of horses here and the wily trainer might have plenty to shout about as the race becomes competitive with GONNABEGOOD possibly leading SHOOFLY MILLY home on this occasion.  Not to be left out of the equation, David Pipe has also spied a chance for MISTER DRIFTER me thinks in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than KAYF TIGER I’ll wager if you’re chasing losses, though that is something I cannot condone.  As a wise man once told me, the last race is the first race tomorrow; in other words, there is no such thing as the ‘last race’.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two contests) have claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/2—De Bene Esse (heavy)

1/6—Steel Express (heavy)

1/9—Shoofly Millie (soft)

1/5—Gonnabegood (soft)

 

4.45: COLT LIGHTNING is the other Tom Lacey runner on the card and for well documented reasons about the trainer being in such great form, Sean Bowen’s mount in the first name on the team sheet.  PLANTAGENET is expected to reward each way supporters in the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite snared the silver medal in a non Placepot event at the back end of the card.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/11—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

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Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 25th March

DONCASTER – MARCH 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £160.00 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 54.0% units went through – 28/1, 10/1, 7/2* & 8/1

Race 2: 59.9% of the remaining units when through – 15/8*, 25/1 & 11/4

Race 3: 75.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7*, 9/2 & 25/1

Race 4: 19.9% of the remaining units went through – 33/1, 13/2**, 16/1 & 20/1 (13/2**)

Race 5: 34.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 50/1

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1, 14/1, 8/1 & 9/1 (9/2)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 8 (Right Action), 11 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Colonel Frank) & 7 (Lost At Sea)

Leg 2 (3.00): 2 (First Contact) & 12 (Stealth)

Leg 3 (3.35): 7 (Explain), 9 (Dark Defender), 11 (Private Matter) & 8 (Mobsta)

Leg 4 (4.10): 5 (Royal Line) & 1 (Great Hall)

Leg 5 (4.45): 8 (Archippos), 10 (Music Seeker) & 3 (Tuff Rock)

Leg 6 (5.20): 3 (Broderie) & 7 (Dr Richard Kimble)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this opening event (was also responsible for the runner up last year at 10/1) and the quintet were all four-year-olds which makes for interesting reading.  Richard has declared four horses on this occasion, with his lone four-year-old raider RIGHT ACTION taken to lead his stablemates home, as was the case twelve months ago. Four-year-olds have won five of the last six contests for good measure, whereby my short listed trio to accompany Right Action comprises of KNOW YOUR LIMIT, COLONEL FRANK and LOST AT SEA.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 15 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Right Touch (good to soft)

1/5—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/9—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/2—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/13—Khelman (heavy)

2/2—Act Echo (good to firm & good to soft)

 

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3.00: We can only suppose that PREVENT will turn out to be an above average type, especially in the excellent care of Ralph Beckett and his team.  As for now, I expect the experience already gained by the likes of STEALTH and (particularly) FIRST CONTACT might prove too much for the Poet’s Voice gelding at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals between them, including twelve of the last thirteen contests. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last eight renewals, whilst the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Putting the stats into the deep far fryer produces names such as EXPLAIN, DARK DEFENDER and PRIVATE MATTER.  MOBSTA is a regular at this opening weekend of the season and Mick Channon’s raider should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1—33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):

8-15-13-14 (22 ran –good)

21-1-5-18 (20 ran-soft)

3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)

6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)

15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

2/4—Naadirr (2 x good)

1/4—Captain Colby (good)

2/7—Mobsta (2 x soft)

 

4.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and vintage representatives are 6/4 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. John Gosden has declared vintage representative ROYAL LINE who might have GREAT HALL to beat here, with Mick Quinn’s eight-year-old always seemingly that bit better with some juice in the ground.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other nine market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last fourteen years.

 

4.45: Last year’s winner ARCHIPPOS returns to defend his crown and with Phil Kirby’s team in fine form just now (five of his last thirteen runners have won), the five-year-old is the first name on the team sheet.  Joining him there are MUSIC SEEKER and TUFF ROCK, especially as four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals of this event.  MUSIC SEEKER won at the first time of asking last year on soft ground, whereby Declan Carroll’s representative could be the value for money call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/1**) winner.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Archippos (good)

1/3—Mutarakez (good to soft)

 

5.20: Mark Johnston has won two of the last three renewals in which his stable was represented whereby the chance of DR RICHARD KIMBLE is greatly respected.  That said, Mark’s Lawman gelding might need every pound of the ten he receives from BRODERIE with Charlie Appleby sending out winners for fun of late.  Talking of in-form trainers, Phil Kirby has to be mentioned in dispatches whereby Rayna’s World could outrun his odds.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders have won two of the seven renewals to date, with five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Three of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, though four renewals have slipped by since a market leader scored.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

ASCOT ON SUNDAY – IF YOU’RE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING: 

Last year’s dividend: 132.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.9% units went through – 3/1*, 33/1 & 13/2

Race 2: 42.1% of the remaining units when through – 9/1, 7/2 & 7/2 (3/1)

Race 3: 35.6% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 (win only – 5/4*)

Race 4: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 12/1, 5/1 & 10/1 (9/2)

Race 6: 44.3% of the units secured the dividend – 11/1, 7/2** & 8/1 (7/2**)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 18th March

Awaiting news from the racecourses this morning before deciding which venue to opt for, if any racing is possible today - latest update on conditions:

FFOS LAS: There is a two inch covering of snow here in Bristol this morning and the white stuff is scheduled to continue until lunchtime - no inspection was planned but you can understand my position, not wanting to commit until I know that the course has not been blitzed overnight.

CARLISLE: Inspection planned for 8.00 - The temperature is not expected to rise above two degrees at the track today; an obvious worry.

BAD NEWS - BOTH MEETINGS ABANDONED

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th March

CARLISLE – MARCH 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £48.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Sory), 3 (Frightened Rabbit) & 5 (Once An Angel)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Pinch Of Ginger) & 2 (Asking Questions)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Instingtive), 2 (Shanaway) & 1 (Budarri)

Leg 4 (3.55): 2 (Major Hindrance), 4 (Never Up) & 5 (Grove Silver)

Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Louse Talk)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Cultram Abbey), 2 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 4 (Killer Crow)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: 34.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £27.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £44.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Apologies for the late/brief offering due to illness.  Hopefully back with you tomorrow - firing on all cylinders.

Placepot Pointers – Monday 19th February

CARLISLE – FEBRUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £51.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Truckers Lodge), 2 (Henry’s Joy) & 1 (Ballinslea Bridge)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Copper West), 9 (Dakota Grey) & 5 (Take A Break)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Swing Hard) & 3 (Granville Island)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Slanelough) & 5 (Blottos)

Leg 5 (4.05): 9 (Haul Us In), 8 (Point N Shoot) & 6 (Pinch Of Ginger)

Leg 6 (4.44): 1 (Chidswell) & 5 (Bako De Le Saulaie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Tom George has only saddled two horses here at Carlisle during the last five years (both beaten) yet Tom has declared three runners on today’s card.  TRUCKERS LODGE is the first inmate on parade and there is every chance that Tom’s beaten (Wetherby) favourite can make amends here with (seemingly) HENRY’S JOY and BALLINSLEA BRIDGE to beat.  The latter named raider is Olly Murphy’s first ever runner at the Cumbrian venue.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come into the race on a hat trick, albeit the last two favourites were the only gold medallists via six renewals to date.  From a win perspective, it’s worth noting that two 4/9 chances in the race have been beaten.  The last five favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.30: COPPER WEST is the second Tom George runner on the card and his Placepot chance is there for all to see in this grade/company.  DAKOTA GREY and TAKE A BREAK are offer up as potential each way alternative options.  Micky Hammond (Dakota Grey) has his team in fine order, whilst Nigel Hawke secured a double on last year’s corresponding card and there will be worse outsiders at Carlisle than Take A Break from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: There is just one successful (11/4) favourite to report via six contests to date, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Course winners in the second race:

1/2—Cesar Collonges (soft)

2/2—Barrys Jack (soft & heavy)

2/12—Pistol (2 x heavy)

1/4—Dakota Grey (heavy)

1/16—Snowed In (soft)

 

3.00: There are stats and there are statistics but whichever way you want to load the dice, it’s impossible to ignore Sue Smith’s record in the event.  Sue has saddled the winner of this race four times and the only time she suffered defeat was when her 16/1 chance was beaten five years ago.  Sue’s stats of 1/14 at the track this season dilutes interest to a fashion but even so, dual course and distance winner (on soft and heavy ground) SWING HARD has to be the call.  Five of the six winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, which also brings recent heavy ground winners GRANVILLE ISLAND and UNTTIL WINNING into the equation.

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Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won the last two renewals, the previous four favourites all finished out with the washing.

Course winner in the field:

2/4—Swing Hard (soft & heavy)

 

3.35: Four of the last five winners have carried 11-2 or more which bodes well for the chance of course winner SLANELOUGH, especially as Rose Dobbin has saddled three of her nine runners at Carlisle this season to winning effect.  BLOTTOS carries the popular white, yellow and green colours of Trevor Hemmings and with Sue Smith currently enjoying a 33% strike rate via her last eight winners, plenty of ‘locals’ will be cheering the six-year-old on.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 13/8) market leaders.  That said the last four contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.  The statisticians among you will offer the positive point that favourite backers remain over 11 points up to level stakes thus far.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Slanelough (soft)

3/4—Lord Bullin (3 x good to soft)

 

4.05: The top three horses in the handicap have lost their way in recent times whereby HAUL US IN, POINT N SHOOT and PINCH OF GINGER look safer Placepot options on this occasion.  That said, nothing could prize money from my wallet/pocket to have a bet in the race from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Just one the three favourites secured a Placepot position by winning its respective event at odds of 15/8.

 

4.40: It’s not too often that Nicky Richards allows a Carlisle meeting to drift by without saddling a gold medallist and in CHIDSWELL, Nicky has a decent chance of greeting his nine-year-old in the area reserved for the winner in the unsaddling enclosure.  Arguably, it’s BAKO DE LE SAULAIE who could turn out to be the joker in the pack as far as Nicky and his team is concerned.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Never Up.

Favourite factor: The last two (6/4 & 3/1) favourites having finished down the field following the success of the inaugural 4/1 market leader in 2015.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Un Guet Apens (2 x soft)

1/1—Never Up (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Monday – followed by their stats this season at the track (in brackets) + five year ratios & profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Brian Ellison (2/7 – loss of 2 points) – 8/48 – loss of 17

4—Sue Smith (1/14 – loss of 8) – 15/106 – loss of 22

3—Tom George (0/1) – 0/2

3—Nigel Hawke (0/2) – 8/22 +7

3—Lucinda Russell (1/13 – loss of 10) – 9/154 – loss of 99

2—Nick Alexander (0/8) – 1/71 – loss of 28

2—Jenny Candlish (0/9) – 8/66 – loss of 28)

2—Susan Corbett (1/7 +4) – 2/27 - +5

2—Rose Dobbin (3/9 +9) – 9/65 – loss of 17

2—Ann Hamilton (1/3 – loss of 1) – 2/18 – loss of 8)

2—Micky Hammond (1/13 – loss of 4) – 6/95 – loss of 62

2—Donald McCain (3/25 +21) – 35/188 – loss of 22

2—Olly Murphy (First ever runners at Carlisle)

2—Nicky Richards (2/7 +1) – 18/79 +18

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday December 3

LEICESTER – DECEMBER 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £32.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Coolanly), 4 (High Noon) & 10 (Vinndication)

Leg 2 (1.10): 2 (Octagon) & 4 (Clock On Tom)

Leg 3 (1.45): 3 (Fox Appeal), 5 (Astracad) & 6 (Grandads Horse)

Leg 4 (2.15): 2 (Oregan Gold), 6 (Belgammois) & 7 (Win Place And Sho)

Leg 5 (2.50): 3 (Grand Coureur) & 8 (Larkhall)

Leg 6 (3.20): 10 (Mahlerdramatic), 1 (Megabucks) & 3 (Western Wave)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals, whereby the declaration of just two vintage representatives is baffling to say the least!  Both COOLANLY and HIGH NOON are included in my Placepot mix as you might imagine.  If the vintage raiders fail to deliver the goods this time around, VINNDICATION could prove to be the joker in the pack following a half decent Ludlow victory on debut in a bumper event.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race via 16 renewals during the last 18 years. 13 of the 17 jollies have finished in the frame.  All 16 winners started at odds of 17/2 or less during the study period.

 

1.10: Seven-year-olds have won six of the thirteen renewals during the last fifteen years, whilst ten of the last eleven winners having carried a maximum burden of 11-3.  Last year’s 5/1 winner (Trapper Peak) was the only vintage raider (as highlighted at the time) and though three relevant declarations are in place today, OCTAGON should prove to be the pick, albeit he carries two pounds more than the ideal burden according to the trends.   Course winner CLOCK ON TOM could be the forecast call if that’s the way you want to play the contest.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the study period.  11 of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

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Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Clock On Tom (good to soft)

 

1.45:  Leicester can feel a little aggrieved that this new event for veterans has attracted just six runners, far fewer than is normally the case in these popular races.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that FOX APPEAL, GRANDADS HORSE and ASTRACAD can keep us on track regarding our favourite wager.  ASTRACAD has a decent pull in the weights against The Romford Pele on recent Aintree form, whilst that latter named raider has hardly been the most consistent of individuals down the years, albeit he won on debut for a new yard the last day.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

2.15: If you had to pick out one race which could upset the Placepot applecart on Sunday, this would be the one.  Speculative selections have to be considered and OREGAN GOLD is the first name on the team sheet, whilst 28/1 chance BELGAMMOIS in not entirely ruled out of the equation.  A more logical winner in the line up is WIN PLACE AND SHO from my viewpoint.  Let’s hope that my ‘speculation’ is rewarded!
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a toteplacepot position when finished second behind the 6/1 winner, before last year’s 7/2 favourite prevailed.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Catching Time (heavy)

 

2.50:  The last two winners of the penultimate leg have won at 25/1 and 20/1 and though LARKHALL will not be that type of price this afternoon, James Bowen’s mount can give each way investors a decent run for their money at around the 9/1 mark.  That said, GRAND COUREUR has realistic claims of being the first favourite to oblige in this event at the sixth time of asking.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions having finished second in their respective events.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/6—Bally Lagan (good)

1/3—Fingers Crossed (heavy)

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

1/5—Larkhill (good to firm)

 

3.20: Bookmakers must be rubbing their hands this morning in anticipation of a potentially lucrative ‘getting out stakes’ in which punters will probably need more than their fair share to successfully name the winner.  I can only become interested from a Placepot perspective, offering MAHLERDRAMATIC, MEGABUCKS and WESTERN WAVE against the field.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Sunday – followed by their stats at the track this season and Profits/losses to level stakes:

No trainer has more than two runners on today’s card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: Meeting abandoned

Placepot Pointers – Monday 13th November

KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £164.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Mr Whipped) & 2 (Irish Prophecy)

Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Eyesopenwideawake), 6 (Aficonado) & 7 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Secret Investor), 1 (Black Mischief) & 5 (Earth Storm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Give Me A Copper) & 2 (Three Ways)

Leg 5 (2.55): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 6 (Maestro Royal) & 1 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Whisper) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Although only 49 runners made the final cut, this is still 12 more than there were declared for the meeting last year!  Aside from the main meetings, there is something about Kempton Park that does not attract that many trainers, aside from the usual suspects!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that yesterday’s Sandown winner IRISH PROPHECY was still in the mix at the time of writing (4.00 this morning) and given his effortless stroll on Sunday, I guess there is a chance that Emma Lavelle’s Azamour gelding will turn up for the gig.  Either way, I’m not sure if an enquiry has been announced to look into that event yesterday as some senior jockeys were guilty of letting the odds on favourite get an incredibly easy lead from the outset whereby there never seemed a chance that any one of his rivals could possibly catch the market leader.  ASHKOUL ran off a mark of 94 on the level on one occasion, a rating that would put him in with a chance here, though we have to take his ‘timber-topping’ on trust on his debut at this discipline.  Whatever his future, the chances are that the Skelton team will have to play second fiddle to MR WHIPPED here (and Emma’s raider for that matter) if Nicky Henderson’s Beneficial gelding is as good as the jungle drums suggest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Irish Prophecy (good)

 

1.20: This is arguably the hardest puzzle to solve on the card and with little in the way of history to help us out, I’m hoping that EYESOPENWIDEAWAKE can build on his summer success now taking to fences.  If Harry Whittington’s raider gets his own way out in front, Harry Bannister’s mount might prove difficult to catch at a venue which suits such tactics.  Harry (Whittington) has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect, with connections possibly (I repeat possibly) having most to fear from AFICIONADO and BAD BOY DU POULDU in a tricky event to evaluate.  Favorito Buck’s will probably attract more Placepot units than he is entitled to via the Paul Nicholls factor whereby there is little value in adding the Ditcheat representative into the equation.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader finished last of the three finishers in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this contest with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted via eight of the fourteen declarations.  Plenty of in-form trainers are involved in the contest and my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of SECRET INVESTOR, BLACK MISCHIEF and EARTH STORM.

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Favourite factor:  Seven of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.

 

2.25: There is no point beating about the bush in this oh so disappointing affair by informing that both horses will be added into the permutation, especially after GIVE ME A COPPER blotted his copybook at Kelso last time out.  That said, the Paul Nicholls raider has plenty in hand over THREE WAYS according to official figures whereby an error free round would surely be enough to seal the prize.  The early signs suggest that the trade press quote of 4/11 is not short enough, with 1/4 being the likely SP of the projected winner.  If the odds do not look that different to the untrained eye, I’m duty bound to inform that the differential is equivalent to a horse being backed from 9/1 to 5/1.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.55: MAESTRO ROYAL represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last seven runners in the race to winning effect.  Another horse that could outrun his odds is THE LAST SAMURI for a couple of reasons.  Kim Bailey saddled the winner of this event last year, whilst Kim has greeted four of his last seven runners in the enclosure reserved for winners.  Add the fact that just five race has passed since THE LAST SAMURI was made one of the 8/1 joint faviourites for the Grand National in 2016 whereby you start to think that 20/1 in this grade/company looks reasonably interesting.  For the record, the nine-year-old (tackling timber instead of the huge Aintree fences) has gained six of his eight wins between November and January.  More logical minds might home in on the chance of WHO DARES WINS who is one of Alan King’s better dual purpose horses and is fit from a profitable campaign on the level.

Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last eleven years, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3.  ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—The Last Samurai (good to soft)

 

3.30: Nicky Henderson (WHISPER) leads Paul Nicholls (CLAN DES OBEAUX) 3-2 via the last nine renewals of this event and the figures suggest that Nicky can extend the lead in this Graduation event.  Only Might Bite has beaten Whisper via his last four assignments, form which was well and truly franked at Sandown yesterday.  Whisper beat Clan Des Obeaux by half a length at Cheltenham back in January and is five pounds better off into the bargain, which would not be the case in a handicap event!

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won seven of the eight renewals thus far, with eight of the ten market leaders securing Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Monday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:

4 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/8 – Slight profit) & 52/194 – loss of 4 points

4—Paul Nicholls (5/7 +2) & 32/146 – loss of 9 points

3—Gary Moore (0/6) & 5/83 – loss of 47 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/6) & 8/90 – loss of 63 points

2—Kim Bailey (0/1) & 5/48 – loss of 7 points

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – Slight loss) & 10/53 – loss of 20 points

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) & 8/45 +46

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) & 9/65 – loss of 35 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) & 4/29 – loss of 16 points

2—Harry Whittinghton (1/2 +4) & 3/14 +7

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 5th November

CARLISLE –   NOVEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £143.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Count Meribel) & 3 (Aloomomo)

Leg 2 (1.30): 9 (Just Minded), 6 (Solstice Star) & 11 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Versifier), 8 (Castletown) & 5 (Chozen)

Leg 4 (2.30): 12 (Cadeau George), 4 (Blameitalonmyroots), 2 (Abracadabra Sivola) & 10 (Waldorf Salad)

Leg 5 (3.05): 9 (Westend Story) & 3 (One For Harry)

Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Belami Des Pictons), & 2 (Waiting Patiently)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of this event though that said, six-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form as the world could see when landing the one-two result in the ‘Charlie Hall’ at Wetherby yesterday.  The penalty for winning here at Carlisle recently will make life tougher for Nigel’s COUNT MERIBEL from a win perspective but the five-year-old’s Placepot chance is there for all to see following a string of fine efforts leading up to his success.  Warren Greatrex is just getting his team back into top gear and ALOOMOMO can also be expected to figure prominently in grade/company.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another.  Thirteen of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Count Meribel (soft)

 

1.30: This is ‘Trevor Hemming country’ and the famous green, yellow and white colours will be carried by Sue Smith’s JUST MINDED, the trainer having saddled plenty of winners at this corresponding meeting down the years.  Mick Channon has saddled 24 consecutive losers now and though I don’t expect MISTER WHITAKER to end the barren spell from a win perspective necessarily, Mick’s five-year-old (the youngest runner in the race) should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  Trainer Martin Keighley will still be ‘dining out’ after his Cheltenham double last weekend and stable staff could have another reason to celebrate with inmate SOLSTICE STAR boasting claims, especially with Richard Johnson booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 11/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s 11/4 market sneaked into the money via a bronze medal effort.

Record of the courses winners in the field:

1/1—Central Flame (soft)

1/1—Just Minded (good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals thus far whilst horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured twelve of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the six winners. Although potentially 16 ounces under the weight barriers via a jockey claim here, there will be worse outsiders on the card than five-year-old VERSIFIER from my viewpoint, with trainer Oliver Sherwood having saddled three winners at this meeting during the last five years.  Other five and six years to consider include CASTLETOWN and CHOZEN.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/5, 7/4 & 3/1**) winners.

 

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2.30: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whereby eleven of the fifteen runners could be eliminated if you take the stats at face value.  Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record having secured four of the last eight contests.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of CADEAU GEORGE, BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and ABRACADABRA SIVOLA.  This is such a tough race to call however, that I am adding WALDORF SALAD into the mix, especially having landed yesterday’s Wetherby dividend which boosted the coffers.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years. Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Russe Blanc (soft)

 

3.05: ONE FOR HARRY won the first two (of three) renewals of this event but was missing from the declarations twelve months ago.  Trainer Nicky Richards secured a 12/1 double at Wetherby on Friday, now saddling three runners here at his local track on Sunday.  Nicky’s ONE FOR HARRY has secured six of his seven victories thus far between the months of November and January (inclusive) and from a Placepot perspective at least, I feel obliged to include Adam Nicol’s mount into the mix.  There is potential for suggesting that WESTEND STORY could be ‘thrown in’ on his handicap debut, despite having flattered to deceive for some time now following a great effort in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham festival last year.  SKY KHAN could outrun his odds by squeezing into the frame at a decent price.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, stats which include one (9/4) gold medallist.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

2/6—One For Harry (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Although only four runners have been declared for the Placepot finale, it’s difficult to leave any one of these contenders out of the overnight mix, especially with two biggest priced runners hailing from top stables up here in the north.  That said, BELAMI DES PICTONS is well in according to the official figures, though WAITING PATIENTLY could prove to be a tough nut to crack, especially under his preferred (soft) conditions.  The fact that Malcolm Jefferson’s latter named raider is asked to give ‘Belami’ six pounds should bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had secured Placepot positions (one winner) before last year’s 2/5 favourite was beaten in a two horse race.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Baywing (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Sunday alongside stats for this season at the track with profit/loss figures to level stakes accrued:

4 runners—Sue Smith (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

3—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)

3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/2)

3—Rebecca Menzies (0/3)

3—Nicky Richards (1/2 +3)

3—Lucinda Russell (0/5)

3—Venetia Williams (1/3 +2)

2—Mick Channon (No previous runners this season)

2—Keith Dalgleish (No previous runners this season)

2—Alex Hales (No previous runners this season)

2—Lisa Harrison (0/2)

2—Martin Keighley (No previous runners this season)

2—Donald McCain (2/14 – loss of 1 point)

2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners this season)

2—Dianne Sayer (No previous runners this season)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)

2—Oliver Sherwood (No previous runners this season)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 – Slight profit)

2—Tom Vaughan (1/3 – loss of 1 point)

2—John Wainwright (No previous runners this season)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £18.10 – 9 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced