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Placepot Pointers – Sunday December 3

LEICESTER – DECEMBER 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £32.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Coolanly), 4 (High Noon) & 10 (Vinndication)

Leg 2 (1.10): 2 (Octagon) & 4 (Clock On Tom)

Leg 3 (1.45): 3 (Fox Appeal), 5 (Astracad) & 6 (Grandads Horse)

Leg 4 (2.15): 2 (Oregan Gold), 6 (Belgammois) & 7 (Win Place And Sho)

Leg 5 (2.50): 3 (Grand Coureur) & 8 (Larkhall)

Leg 6 (3.20): 10 (Mahlerdramatic), 1 (Megabucks) & 3 (Western Wave)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals, whereby the declaration of just two vintage representatives is baffling to say the least!  Both COOLANLY and HIGH NOON are included in my Placepot mix as you might imagine.  If the vintage raiders fail to deliver the goods this time around, VINNDICATION could prove to be the joker in the pack following a half decent Ludlow victory on debut in a bumper event.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race via 16 renewals during the last 18 years. 13 of the 17 jollies have finished in the frame.  All 16 winners started at odds of 17/2 or less during the study period.

 

1.10: Seven-year-olds have won six of the thirteen renewals during the last fifteen years, whilst ten of the last eleven winners having carried a maximum burden of 11-3.  Last year’s 5/1 winner (Trapper Peak) was the only vintage raider (as highlighted at the time) and though three relevant declarations are in place today, OCTAGON should prove to be the pick, albeit he carries two pounds more than the ideal burden according to the trends.   Course winner CLOCK ON TOM could be the forecast call if that’s the way you want to play the contest.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the study period.  11 of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Clock On Tom (good to soft)

 

1.45:  Leicester can feel a little aggrieved that this new event for veterans has attracted just six runners, far fewer than is normally the case in these popular races.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that FOX APPEAL, GRANDADS HORSE and ASTRACAD can keep us on track regarding our favourite wager.  ASTRACAD has a decent pull in the weights against The Romford Pele on recent Aintree form, whilst that latter named raider has hardly been the most consistent of individuals down the years, albeit he won on debut for a new yard the last day.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

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2.15: If you had to pick out one race which could upset the Placepot applecart on Sunday, this would be the one.  Speculative selections have to be considered and OREGAN GOLD is the first name on the team sheet, whilst 28/1 chance BELGAMMOIS in not entirely ruled out of the equation.  A more logical winner in the line up is WIN PLACE AND SHO from my viewpoint.  Let’s hope that my ‘speculation’ is rewarded!
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a toteplacepot position when finished second behind the 6/1 winner, before last year’s 7/2 favourite prevailed.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Catching Time (heavy)

 

2.50:  The last two winners of the penultimate leg have won at 25/1 and 20/1 and though LARKHALL will not be that type of price this afternoon, James Bowen’s mount can give each way investors a decent run for their money at around the 9/1 mark.  That said, GRAND COUREUR has realistic claims of being the first favourite to oblige in this event at the sixth time of asking.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions having finished second in their respective events.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/6—Bally Lagan (good)

1/3—Fingers Crossed (heavy)

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

1/5—Larkhill (good to firm)

 

3.20: Bookmakers must be rubbing their hands this morning in anticipation of a potentially lucrative ‘getting out stakes’ in which punters will probably need more than their fair share to successfully name the winner.  I can only become interested from a Placepot perspective, offering MAHLERDRAMATIC, MEGABUCKS and WESTERN WAVE against the field.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Sunday – followed by their stats at the track this season and Profits/losses to level stakes:

No trainer has more than two runners on today’s card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: Meeting abandoned

Placepot Pointers – Monday 13th November

KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £164.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Mr Whipped) & 2 (Irish Prophecy)

Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Eyesopenwideawake), 6 (Aficonado) & 7 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Secret Investor), 1 (Black Mischief) & 5 (Earth Storm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Give Me A Copper) & 2 (Three Ways)

Leg 5 (2.55): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 6 (Maestro Royal) & 1 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Whisper) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Although only 49 runners made the final cut, this is still 12 more than there were declared for the meeting last year!  Aside from the main meetings, there is something about Kempton Park that does not attract that many trainers, aside from the usual suspects!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that yesterday’s Sandown winner IRISH PROPHECY was still in the mix at the time of writing (4.00 this morning) and given his effortless stroll on Sunday, I guess there is a chance that Emma Lavelle’s Azamour gelding will turn up for the gig.  Either way, I’m not sure if an enquiry has been announced to look into that event yesterday as some senior jockeys were guilty of letting the odds on favourite get an incredibly easy lead from the outset whereby there never seemed a chance that any one of his rivals could possibly catch the market leader.  ASHKOUL ran off a mark of 94 on the level on one occasion, a rating that would put him in with a chance here, though we have to take his ‘timber-topping’ on trust on his debut at this discipline.  Whatever his future, the chances are that the Skelton team will have to play second fiddle to MR WHIPPED here (and Emma’s raider for that matter) if Nicky Henderson’s Beneficial gelding is as good as the jungle drums suggest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Irish Prophecy (good)

 

1.20: This is arguably the hardest puzzle to solve on the card and with little in the way of history to help us out, I’m hoping that EYESOPENWIDEAWAKE can build on his summer success now taking to fences.  If Harry Whittington’s raider gets his own way out in front, Harry Bannister’s mount might prove difficult to catch at a venue which suits such tactics.  Harry (Whittington) has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect, with connections possibly (I repeat possibly) having most to fear from AFICIONADO and BAD BOY DU POULDU in a tricky event to evaluate.  Favorito Buck’s will probably attract more Placepot units than he is entitled to via the Paul Nicholls factor whereby there is little value in adding the Ditcheat representative into the equation.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader finished last of the three finishers in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this contest with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted via eight of the fourteen declarations.  Plenty of in-form trainers are involved in the contest and my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of SECRET INVESTOR, BLACK MISCHIEF and EARTH STORM.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.

 

2.25: There is no point beating about the bush in this oh so disappointing affair by informing that both horses will be added into the permutation, especially after GIVE ME A COPPER blotted his copybook at Kelso last time out.  That said, the Paul Nicholls raider has plenty in hand over THREE WAYS according to official figures whereby an error free round would surely be enough to seal the prize.  The early signs suggest that the trade press quote of 4/11 is not short enough, with 1/4 being the likely SP of the projected winner.  If the odds do not look that different to the untrained eye, I’m duty bound to inform that the differential is equivalent to a horse being backed from 9/1 to 5/1.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.55: MAESTRO ROYAL represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last seven runners in the race to winning effect.  Another horse that could outrun his odds is THE LAST SAMURI for a couple of reasons.  Kim Bailey saddled the winner of this event last year, whilst Kim has greeted four of his last seven runners in the enclosure reserved for winners.  Add the fact that just five race has passed since THE LAST SAMURI was made one of the 8/1 joint faviourites for the Grand National in 2016 whereby you start to think that 20/1 in this grade/company looks reasonably interesting.  For the record, the nine-year-old (tackling timber instead of the huge Aintree fences) has gained six of his eight wins between November and January.  More logical minds might home in on the chance of WHO DARES WINS who is one of Alan King’s better dual purpose horses and is fit from a profitable campaign on the level.

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Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last eleven years, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3.  ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—The Last Samurai (good to soft)

 

3.30: Nicky Henderson (WHISPER) leads Paul Nicholls (CLAN DES OBEAUX) 3-2 via the last nine renewals of this event and the figures suggest that Nicky can extend the lead in this Graduation event.  Only Might Bite has beaten Whisper via his last four assignments, form which was well and truly franked at Sandown yesterday.  Whisper beat Clan Des Obeaux by half a length at Cheltenham back in January and is five pounds better off into the bargain, which would not be the case in a handicap event!

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won seven of the eight renewals thus far, with eight of the ten market leaders securing Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Monday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:

4 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/8 – Slight profit) & 52/194 – loss of 4 points

4—Paul Nicholls (5/7 +2) & 32/146 – loss of 9 points

3—Gary Moore (0/6) & 5/83 – loss of 47 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/6) & 8/90 – loss of 63 points

2—Kim Bailey (0/1) & 5/48 – loss of 7 points

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – Slight loss) & 10/53 – loss of 20 points

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) & 8/45 +46

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) & 9/65 – loss of 35 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) & 4/29 – loss of 16 points

2—Harry Whittinghton (1/2 +4) & 3/14 +7

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 5th November

CARLISLE –   NOVEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £143.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Count Meribel) & 3 (Aloomomo)

Leg 2 (1.30): 9 (Just Minded), 6 (Solstice Star) & 11 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Versifier), 8 (Castletown) & 5 (Chozen)

Leg 4 (2.30): 12 (Cadeau George), 4 (Blameitalonmyroots), 2 (Abracadabra Sivola) & 10 (Waldorf Salad)

Leg 5 (3.05): 9 (Westend Story) & 3 (One For Harry)

Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Belami Des Pictons), & 2 (Waiting Patiently)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of this event though that said, six-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form as the world could see when landing the one-two result in the ‘Charlie Hall’ at Wetherby yesterday.  The penalty for winning here at Carlisle recently will make life tougher for Nigel’s COUNT MERIBEL from a win perspective but the five-year-old’s Placepot chance is there for all to see following a string of fine efforts leading up to his success.  Warren Greatrex is just getting his team back into top gear and ALOOMOMO can also be expected to figure prominently in grade/company.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another.  Thirteen of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Count Meribel (soft)

 

1.30: This is ‘Trevor Hemming country’ and the famous green, yellow and white colours will be carried by Sue Smith’s JUST MINDED, the trainer having saddled plenty of winners at this corresponding meeting down the years.  Mick Channon has saddled 24 consecutive losers now and though I don’t expect MISTER WHITAKER to end the barren spell from a win perspective necessarily, Mick’s five-year-old (the youngest runner in the race) should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  Trainer Martin Keighley will still be ‘dining out’ after his Cheltenham double last weekend and stable staff could have another reason to celebrate with inmate SOLSTICE STAR boasting claims, especially with Richard Johnson booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 11/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s 11/4 market sneaked into the money via a bronze medal effort.

Record of the courses winners in the field:

1/1—Central Flame (soft)

1/1—Just Minded (good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals thus far whilst horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured twelve of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the six winners. Although potentially 16 ounces under the weight barriers via a jockey claim here, there will be worse outsiders on the card than five-year-old VERSIFIER from my viewpoint, with trainer Oliver Sherwood having saddled three winners at this meeting during the last five years.  Other five and six years to consider include CASTLETOWN and CHOZEN.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/5, 7/4 & 3/1**) winners.

 

2.30: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whereby eleven of the fifteen runners could be eliminated if you take the stats at face value.  Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record having secured four of the last eight contests.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of CADEAU GEORGE, BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and ABRACADABRA SIVOLA.  This is such a tough race to call however, that I am adding WALDORF SALAD into the mix, especially having landed yesterday’s Wetherby dividend which boosted the coffers.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years. Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Russe Blanc (soft)

 

3.05: ONE FOR HARRY won the first two (of three) renewals of this event but was missing from the declarations twelve months ago.  Trainer Nicky Richards secured a 12/1 double at Wetherby on Friday, now saddling three runners here at his local track on Sunday.  Nicky’s ONE FOR HARRY has secured six of his seven victories thus far between the months of November and January (inclusive) and from a Placepot perspective at least, I feel obliged to include Adam Nicol’s mount into the mix.  There is potential for suggesting that WESTEND STORY could be ‘thrown in’ on his handicap debut, despite having flattered to deceive for some time now following a great effort in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham festival last year.  SKY KHAN could outrun his odds by squeezing into the frame at a decent price.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, stats which include one (9/4) gold medallist.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

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2/6—One For Harry (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Although only four runners have been declared for the Placepot finale, it’s difficult to leave any one of these contenders out of the overnight mix, especially with two biggest priced runners hailing from top stables up here in the north.  That said, BELAMI DES PICTONS is well in according to the official figures, though WAITING PATIENTLY could prove to be a tough nut to crack, especially under his preferred (soft) conditions.  The fact that Malcolm Jefferson’s latter named raider is asked to give ‘Belami’ six pounds should bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had secured Placepot positions (one winner) before last year’s 2/5 favourite was beaten in a two horse race.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Baywing (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Sunday alongside stats for this season at the track with profit/loss figures to level stakes accrued:

4 runners—Sue Smith (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

3—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)

3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/2)

3—Rebecca Menzies (0/3)

3—Nicky Richards (1/2 +3)

3—Lucinda Russell (0/5)

3—Venetia Williams (1/3 +2)

2—Mick Channon (No previous runners this season)

2—Keith Dalgleish (No previous runners this season)

2—Alex Hales (No previous runners this season)

2—Lisa Harrison (0/2)

2—Martin Keighley (No previous runners this season)

2—Donald McCain (2/14 – loss of 1 point)

2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners this season)

2—Dianne Sayer (No previous runners this season)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)

2—Oliver Sherwood (No previous runners this season)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 – Slight profit)

2—Tom Vaughan (1/3 – loss of 1 point)

2—John Wainwright (No previous runners this season)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £18.10 – 9 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £363.80 (3 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 10 (St John’s), 9 (Sgroppino) & 3 (Creswell Legend)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Flashjack) & 3 (Seven Kingdoms)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Darebin), 3 (Kapstadt) & 4 (Going For Broke)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Drinks Interval), 6 (Majestic Moll) & 2 (Skewiff)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Lined With Silver), 3 (Grand Coureur) & 6 (Monderon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Banditry) & 4 (Captain Felix)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Ludlow five year record relating to this corresponding meeting:

36 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £632.14

Highest dividend: £2,234.80 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £91.80 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Evan Williams (2/1*, 13/8* & 10/11*) – 2 runners today:

St John’s (1.55) & Skewiff (3.35)

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday, notwithstanding a half decent card at Wincanton.  In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country.  Evan Williams is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this race to date whereby ST JOHN’S is offered up against shorter priced horses in the field, the pick of which (from a value for money perspective) might prove to be SGROPPINO and CRESWELL LEGEND.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured five gold medals and one of the silver variety, with just one market leader missing out on a Placepot position thus far.

 

2.30: Only eight seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process, vintage representatives having won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the fourteen available Placepot positions and with FLASHJACK boasting ticks in both of the trend boxes representing the successful partnership of Daly/Johnson down the years, Henry’s raider is the call.  Hoping (against hope perhaps) that the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, I’m opting for SEVEN KINGDOMS as the main threat, with the David Dennis representative at home under these conditions which has been noted by overnight exchange players.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other three market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.00: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a six strong ‘short field’ event.  This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card.  Gary Moore has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect, securing 35 points of level stake profit into the bargain!  Gary has offered the green light to DAREBIN with an obvious chance, though there are plenty of other pointers in a fascinating contest.  Ian Williams (KAPSTADT) is another trainer on the crest of a wave with three of his last four runners having won, with the relevant beaten horse having been sent off as a 66/1 chance.  Overnight money has arrived for GOING FOR BROKE and I will offer up this trio against the other three contenders. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before the last two (4/9 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eleven available Placepot positions.  DRINKS INTERVAL and MAJESTIC MOLL are marginally preferred to fellow vintage representative SKEWIFF this time around, though all three contenders find a place in my permutation.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.

 

4.05: With so much to do to set up a busy weekend of fixtures, something has to give and on this occasion, I have to offer this amateur rider event short shrift. Thankfully, there has been interest in three horses overnight, namely LINED WITH SILVER, GRAND COUREUR and MONDERON.

Favourite factor: Two of five favourites to date (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (4/1) winner.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Show’s Over

 

4.35: Ian Williams (BANDITRY) has saddled a winner from two runners in this event during its brief history and his five-year-old Iffraaj gelding should secure a Placepot position at the very least in this grade/company.  BANDITRY makes his handicap debut here following a decent victory on this type of ground at Southwell the last day.  It’s always good to see horses coming into the NH sector who were still progressing on the flat and his last official mark of 94 on the level suggests that he should be able to compete in half decent races in this discipline.  Fellow last time out winners CAPTAIN FELIX and EXCELLENT TEAM should prove to be the main beneficiaries if Ian’s raider fails to impress.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 11/4 & 5/6 via three renewals.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Peruvian Bleu (2 x good)

1/2—Excellent Team (good to firm)

1/3—King Alfonso (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Alexandra Dunn (3/16 – loss of 2 points)

3—Robin Dickin (2/50 – loss of 16 points)

2—Henry Daly (17/90 – loss of 19 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (23/94 – loss of 8 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (5/51 – loss of 29 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/28 – loss of 9 points)

2—Dan Skelton (20/81 – loss of 5 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (3/23 – loss of 8 points)

2—Tom Vaughan (8/66 +9)

2—Evan Williams (36/213 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ian Wiillims (12/55 - +4)

2—Nick Williams (3/19 – loss of 7 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £61.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £345.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £60.60 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 19th October

CARLISLE – OCTOBER 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £135.80 (6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Barrys Jack), 4 (Celtic Flames) & 10 (Wazowski)

Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Apollo Creed) & 3 (Count Mirabel)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Carrigdhoun), 2 (Ballyben) & 4 (Vic De Touzain)

Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Colt Lightning) & 1 (Bel De Rio)

Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Miss Mash), 7 (Sapphire Noire) & 6 (Cowslip)

Leg 6 (4.50): 9 (Beau Bay), 2 (Dubai Angel) & 1 (Report To Base)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: All eight of Sue Smith’s runners finished out of the frame at Wetherby yesterday (exact science) whereby I will swerve her runners on the card this afternoon until she finds a winner, let alone a placed horse.  Leaving her Market Rasen winner Flemerina aside accordingly, I am left with the likes of BARRYS JACK, CELTIC FLAMES and WAZOWSKI for representation in today’s opening Placepot teaser.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites to date have snared Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/4—Hartside (good to soft)

 

2.45: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4/2 via just the six contests thus far and the vintage looks well represented here with APOLLO CREED and COUNT MIRABEL having been declared.  Evan Williams saddles three runners at the track via a recent 4/9 ratio and APOLLO CREED is marginally preferred accordingly.  Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled the beaten (4/5) favourite in the race twelve months ago, albeit only a neck separated the front two at the line.  Nigel is not one to ‘go quietly’ however, and has come back for a tilt at the prize with COUNT MIRABEL who looks sure to go close.  All nine of the Rebecca Curtis runners have been beaten this month, though the declaration of Absolute Power still catches the eye as the first of two runners on the card for the popular trainer, a venue she has swerved for over five years.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have scored at 11/8-11/10-5/6-1/4, with five of the six claiming Placepot positions.

 

3.15: The radar suggests that Carlisle might miss the worst of the weather (the floodgates are supposedly going to open here for the day here in Bristol anytime now) which should bring some relief to connections of the defending champion CARRIGHOUN whose four victories at the course have been gained under good to soft conditions.  The reverse weather scenario would have pleased Venetia Williams (VIC DE TOUZAIN) and Malcolm Jefferson (BALLYBEN) though there still be enough moisture in the turf to suit their respective raiders.

Favourite factor: The three market leaders have failed to reach the frame in what was the Placepot finale last year.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Ballyben (soft)

2/3—Palm Grey (good & soft)

4/8—Carrigdhioun (4 x good to soft)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals and yet only

a lone 100/1 chance represented the vintage twelve months ago.  Thankfully trainers have come to their senses this time around, with the Placepot chances (at the very least) of COLT LIGHTNING and BAL DE RIO there for all to see.  Tom Lacey has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect whereby the pair are listed in order of preference.  CESAR COLLONGES could also reward each way investors in a race that should not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 during which time, three market leaders have prevailed.

 

4.20: There will be worse 12/1 chances on the card than COWSLIP I’ll wager, with the C/D winner having gained her success under these conditions, albeit that victory was recorded two and a half years ago.  I’m still adding Donald McCain’s Tobougg mare into the Placepot equation alongside more obvious winners such as SAPPHIRE NOIRE (take a look at Nigel Hawke’s record at the foot of the analysis) and MISS MASH who has attracted overnight money.  The latter named (Richard Johnson partnered) Henry Daly raider represents a yard which boasts 3/7 at the track in recent season and is Henry’s only runner in Cumbria this afternoon.  Bet3675 offer 6/1 about Henry’s raider which will not last long from my viewpoint. This is an intriguing ‘dead eight’ event which will destroy many a Placepot dream this afternoon I fancy.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Carlisle card.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Cowslip (soft)

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4.50: Four time winner BEAU BAY can’t have the ground too soft and with the turf having been well and truly turned over by the time flag fall arrives in this event, Richard Johnson looks to have another decent chance on the card.  DUBAI ANGEL has recorded a soft ground victory at the track which makes Malcolm Jefferson’s representative a real threat, whilst REPORT TO BASE won at the first time of asking at Uttoxeter last season, a track which also offers sport this afternoon. A fabulous Placepot finale in the Class 3 sector.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have won at 6/4 and Evens, though the other two market leaders both finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Dubai Angel (soft)

2/2—Derinother Yam (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Thursday – followed by trainer stats for the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Donald McCain (33/167 – loss of 33 points)

4—Sue Smith (14/92 – loss of 14 points)

3—Stuart Crawford (6/16 – loss of four points)

3—Rose Dobbin (6/56 – loss of 47 points)

3—Evan Williams (4/9 – Slight profit)

2—Rebecca Curtis (No previous runners)

2—Brian Ellison (6/41 – loss of 15 points)

2—Micky Hammond (6/84 – loss of51 points)

2—Nigel Hawke (8.20 +9)

2—Malcolm Jefferson (9/38 – loss of 1 point)

2—Tom Lacey (0/3)

2—Kerry Lee (0/5)

2—Barry Murtagh (0/33)

2—Nicky Richards (16/72 +16)

2—Martin Todhunter (2/62 – loss of 40 points)

2—Nigel Twiston Davies (2/12 – loss of 4 points)

2—Venetia Williams (7/26 +12)

2—Peter Winks (2/8 +1)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Brighton: £10.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 placed

Newcastle: £305.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £52.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th September

BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £138.00 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (1.35): 4 (Edge), 3 (Oceanus) & 1 (Saint Helena)

Leg 2 (2.10): 8 (Tesorina) & 2 (Poetic Affair)

Leg 3 (2.40): 4 (Tifi), 7 (Lady Morel) & 2 (Baltic Prince)

Leg 4 (3.10): 1 (Papou Tony), 6 (Touch Of Color) & 4 (The Special One)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Highly Sprung), 3 (Ladweb) & 2 (Marie Of Lyon)

Leg 6 (4.15): 8 (Lord E) & 9 (Esspeegee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.35: Horses carrying at least nine stones have secured 13 of the 18 available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include five of the six winners which were returned at 10/1-8/1-9/2-3/1**-11/4.  Eight of the twelve horses are eliminated via the stats, figures which include one runner who drops into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap via a jockey claim.  EDGE, OCEANUS and SAINT HELENA are the trio making most appeal at the time of writing though from a win perspective, no horse jumps off the page.  If pushed, I would nominate Saint Helena as the each way call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via six renewals (one winner at 11/4).

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/4--Edge (good)

4/18—Port Lairge (2 x good – good - heavy)

1/3—Tojosimbre (good to firm)

 

2.10: We have already lost two of the nine declarations whereby a ‘short field’ race is set before us in a race which was difficult to assess, even before the withdrawals reader their ugly heads.  TESORINA is the tentative call over Mark Johnston’s Poet’s Voice newcomer POETIC AFFAIR. For new readers, it might be worth informing that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include one (6/5**) winner.

 

2.40: Perhaps I am guilty of being cynical, but why is it that a nine runner race is diluted down to seven before the ink has time to dry on the (2.10) page, yet a 15 runner event like this one remains ‘intact’ overnight? I must start ‘getting out’ more!  Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. The recent Chepstow winner TIFI is the only horse with ticks in both of the trend boxes.  LADY MOREL and BALTIC PRINCE are added into the equation via the weight trend.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

2/2—Tigerfish (good & good to firm)

1/3—Lady Morel (good)

 

3.10: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. In contrast to the first heat of this event, five four-year-olds qualify via the trends, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PAPOU TONY, TOUCH OF COLOR and THE SPECIAL ONE, the trio being listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—The Special One (good to firm)

1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

3/24—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

 

3.45: Mark Johnston’s second (and final) runner on the card is HIGHLY SPRUNG, the trainer boasting a fine record here at Brighton as you can see in the relevant part of the analysis below.  I would not be at all surprised if the remaining quotes of 6/1 about Mark’s Zebedee gelding is gobbled up before the shops open on Monday morning.  LADWEB and MARIE OF LYON are others to take into consideration.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (via five renewals) have finished in the money, including two successful (3/1** & 2/1) favourites.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Ladweb (good)

1/1—Fang (good)

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4/24—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to soft – good to firm)

 

4.15:  Seven of the nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden on nine stones, stats which eliminate eight of the fourteen declarations if we include jockey claims.  LORD E and ESSPEEGEE are consistent types in terms of being in the thick of things as jockeys raise their whips, albeit their 20 aggregate assignments on the level have yet to produce a victory between them.  That all changed for LORD E the last day over hurdles however, whereby Gary Moore’s three-year-old is challenging for a place in my permutation, despite being dropped below the weight barrier by Hector Crouch’s claim.  ESSPEEGEE is marginally preferred to Altaira with just two Placepot positions up for grabs to complete my permutation.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame to date via nine renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1--Kilim (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5—Scott Dixon (2/7 +16)

5—Julia Feilden (2/17 – loss of 11 points)

4—Tony Carroll (1/34 – loss of 30 points)

4—Daniel Steele (0/4)

3—Lee Carter (0/3)

3—John Gallagher (2/16 – loss of 3 points)

3—Gary Moore (8/38 +44)

2—Michael Blanshard (0/1)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners this season)

2—Ed De Giles (1/10 +5)

2—Mark Gillard (0/4)

2—Rae Guest (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Richard Hannon (7/26 +18)

2—Shaun Harris (1/1 +7)

2—Mark Johnston (7/17 +5)

2—Sylvester Kirk (3/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Phil McEntee (0/13)

2—Tony Newcombe (0/4)

2—Jonathan Portman (1/5 +3)

2—Brendan Powell (0/2)

2—John Spearing (1/4 +2)

2—Ali Stronge (1/4 +5)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

2—Adam West (0/3)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £85.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Worcester: £126.70 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £30.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £231.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Shabaaby), 3 (Deamons Rock), 4 (John Kirkup) & 1 (Beatbox Rhythm)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Guzman), 5 (Crownthorpe) & 2 (Nobleman’s Nest)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Final Venture) & 2 (Desert Law)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Off Art) & 4 (Hitman)

Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Lahore) & 1 (Hyde Park)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Sunbal), 1 (Mount Logan), 5 (Mirage Dancer) & 2 (Red Verdon)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: It remains to be seen what influence the weather has at Doncaster today but in the meantime on the projected soft ground, this is the first of two four runner (win only) contests on Town Moor this afternoon.  Such events tend to produce good Placepot dividends though one is needed on the opening day of the meeting for speculative investors as the last three pots have produced an average divi of just £209.03, which for a top meeting on the racing calendar does not read well.  That comment understates my thoughts, especially with the ‘past veterans’ race to negotiate half way through the Placepot card.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting the ground is responsible (as much as anything else) for yours truly including all four runners in the first race before retiring to the bar.  If pushed to make a selection I guess I would go with last time out soft ground winner Shabaaby, but all three rivals have genuine claims for one reason or another.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have prevailed (though only four of the last sixteen), whilst eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

2.50: 12 of the most recent 18 available win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more, statistics which include four (25/1-9/2-9/2-9/4) of the seven winners of late.  Unfortunately, only Ventura Quest qualifies via the weight trend this time around and with Mark Johnston’s raider having shown a distinct liking for faster ground thus far, I have to swerve the trend on this occasion.  Richard Fahey (saddled last year’s winning favourite) has thrown a spanner in the works having declared three horses and it’s worth noting that GUZMAN was coming in for some support at the time of writing.  Stable companion CROWNTHORPE looks the stronger option on paper though with Paul Hanagan riding the first named representative, I’m struggling to split the pair.  NOBLEMAN’S NEST won his inly race to date (via just three assignments) on the one occasion that the Poet’s Voice raider has contested a race with moisture in the ground (good to soft) which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (9/2, 3/1 & 13/8) winners.

 

 

3.20: 16 of the last 17 winners of this Listed event have carried weights of 9-7 or more which eliminated the bottom three (of six runners in total) from my enquiries.  FINAL VENTURE and DESERT LAW are my tentative selections in a race in which I have cut my own throat to a fashion (no applause please) as I have limited myself to just two ‘selections’, having opted for all four runners in the ‘win only’ races on the Placepot card.  Thesme finished second in the race last year and I guess he might have figured in my mix but for my preference to go for broke in the win only events, notwithstanding the fact that Nigel Tinkler’s raider sits (marginally) the wrong side of the weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst 14 of the 22 market leaders reached the frame during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/5—Desert Law (good)

 

3.50: Regular readers will know that I am not a great fan of novelty races (unless I select a winner!) in the middle of a meeting when toteplacepot bets are affected.  This sport is (or should be) about fitness of horse and rider and there has to be a doubt about the 100% fitness of some of the retired pilots on this occasion. Little wonder that I am (along with plenty of readers I’ll wager) critical of the powers that be that are (supposedly) in charge of the sport.  That said, we appear to have an edge on our side as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, whereby HITMAN could represent some each way value.  However, Tim Easterby appears to have found an opportunity for OFF ART to record his first win since the Magna Carta was signed many years ago!  Tim has enjoyed his share of success at this meeting down the years, most notably of course when Bollin Eric won the St Leger for the north back in 2002.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (all winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/7—Off Art (good to soft)

 

4.20: Seven of the ten winners to date have carried 9-3 or less whereby the chance of LAHORE is respected, especially as Roger Varian’s Elusive Quality colt is the only one of the projected leading fancies to be maintaining its overnight price of 3/1 at the time of writing.  We have to take a chance that Roger’s dual winner will act on the ground but then again, that’s what the sport of kings is all about.  There is no ‘community chest’ to draw from in this pastime unfortunately!  HYDE PARK could hardly be class as a prolific winner, though his two victories have come towards the back end of the season in the past and I cannot help but notice that Frankie Dettori’s mount is John Gosden’s only runner on the card.  The weight stats are against HYDE PARK but possibly not from a Placepot perspective.  The reserve nomination is awarded to NIGHT CIRCUS representing Charlie Appleby’s in form team.

Favourite factor: Four of the thirteen market leaders (via ten renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Hyde Park (good)

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1/1—Lahore (good to firm)

 

 

4.50: I think I have made my intentions clear throughout the analysis that I would be including all four runners in my Placepot mix in the final leg of our favourite wager.  Yes, Mount Logan won the race last year but this ground could be the ‘leveller’ that brings about a different result on this occasion though obviously, I am not willing to omit Roger Varian’s six-year-old from the equation.  Favourites have a good record in the race as has Mount Logan (see both sets of stats below) but small fields have a habit of producing surprise results and a win for any of his three rivals could rubber stamp a decent Placepot return.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, the four market leaders which failed to win all missed out on Placepot positions.  It's also worth pointing out that although favourites have a good record, two of the last seven winners scored at 22/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Mount Logan (good & good to soft)

1/1—Mirage Dancer (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (4/69 – loss of 32 points)

3—Clive Cox (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

3—Michael Dods (0/18)

3—Richard Hannon (8/52 – loss of 4 points)

3—Paul Midgley (2/16 +11)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/4)

2—Karl Burke (loss of 14 points)

2—Ruth Carr (1/18 – loss of 11 points)

2—Simon Crisford (2/6 +1)

2—Scott Dixon (0/19)

2—Michael Mullineaux (1/5 +8)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/21 – loss of 17 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/22 – loss of 6 points)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £426.00 – 8 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £322.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £97.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday August 29

EPSOM - AUGUST 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £60.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Seaella), 8 (Lexington Grace) & 4 (Ruysch)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Lynwood Gold) & 6 (We Know)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Highland Acclaim), 2 (Reputation) & 1 (Coronation Day)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Coral Sea) & 8 (Favourite Royal)

Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Let’s Be Happy), 5 (Challow) & 6 (Ode To Glory)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Marrakib), 6 (Oh It’s Saucepot) & 8 (Av A Word)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: SEAELLA appears to be the safest option, especially from a Placepot perspective when so few horses are attracting money at the time of writing.  I understand that potential investors could be sceptical of backing John Quinn’s raider from a win perspective given her defeat at odds of 4/5 last time out.  That said, the memory of her York victory remains locked into what passes as a brain relating to this columnist and providing John’s Canford Cliffs filly handles the Epsom gradients, Jason Hart’s mount is taken to finish in the money at the very least.  LEXINGTON GRACE and RUYSCH are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Two of the eight renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst six of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  The six beaten favourites all failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

2.35: LYNWOOD GOLD and WE KNOW were holding their positions in the market (as others drifted) as dawn broke over the city of Bristol this morning which I am taking as a positive factor in a race in which support for horses later this morning could dictate the way the race pans out.  You have that advantage over yours truly of course, whereby I am leaving that scenario with you, suggesting that you keep your eyes peeled and act accordingly when contemplating your Placepot permutation leading up to the opening contest at 2.00.  If you look at the ‘favourite factor’ below, you will appreciate my comments.

Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last thirteen years have scored at 9/1 or less, whilst five market leaders have prevailed during the study period.

 

3.10: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3 (top priced winner of 8/1) and the trio which make the most appeal via this year‘s six ‘qualifiers‘ are HIGHLAND ACCLAIM, REPUTATION and CORONATION DAY. The trio are listed in order of preference, given the course record of Highland Acclaim.  With so few horses on the card having won here at Epsom, his 2/3 record at the track is a strong positive factor, especially as both victories have been gained under the same projected (good) ground conditions.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following eight renewals, whilst four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Reputation (good)

2/3—Highland Acclaim (2 x good)

 

3.45: Three-year-olds have won all three renewals to date, with just two vintage representatives having been declared this time around, namely CORAL SEA and FAVOURITE ROYAL. I believe that the 10/3 quote this morning about CORAL SEA will remain in place throughout the day and should that be the case, we can remain optimistic about her Placepot claims.  The 16/1 shout about FAVOURITE ROYAL is worth some (minimum stake) interest given that she has the look of a potential seven furlong specialist from my viewpoint, even though her lone victory to date was posted over an additional furlong.  I’m hoping for a strong pace here which would bring about her best chance of rewarding win and place investors.  FLYBOY is the fairly obvious alternative option I guess.

Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished third of seven in a 'short field' contest.  The following 5/2 market leader fared a little better by finishing second in another short field contest before last year’s market leader duly obliged at odds of 11/4.  New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to races with five/six/seven runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Coral Sea (good to soft)

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2/13—Swiss cross (2 x good)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with vintage representatives around the 11/8 mark before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  I have little (or no) hesitancy is offering up the trio against the remaining four contenders, listed in marginal order of preference as LET’S BE HAPPY, CHALLOW and ODE TO GLORY.

Favourite factor: A top priced winner of 7/1 has emerged via seven renewals thus far, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 4/9) market leaders.

 

4.50: Nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-5 or more and with David O’Meara back saddling winners on a fairly regular basis, MARRAKIB (subject of some support overnight – the only runner on the card to do so) is the win and place call. OH IT’S SAUCEPOT deserves her place at the head of the market as Chris Wall’s Sir Percy filly steps up in trip seeking her hat trick, whilst AV A WORD will not be on offer at 13/2 as the trade press quote indicated overnight. Coral have Daniel Kubler’s raider as short as 10/3, which suggests that the phones will be ring in Paddy Power offices both sides of the Irish Sea this morning, with their (each way) offer of 5/1 standing out from the crowd.  I would suggest that an SP of around 4/1 will be returned - win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—The Gay Cavalier (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Tuesday – followed by their recent ratios:

4 runners—Mick Channon (0/8 – Sunday/Monday)

4—Richard Fahey (2/7 yesterday)

3—Mark Johnston (0/9 – Sunday/Monday)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/21 since August 18)

2—Charlie Hills (1/22 since August 25)

2—Sylvester Kirk (1/17 since August 15)

2—David O’Meara (4/21 since August 26)

2—John Quinn (2/9 since August 25)

2—Mark Usher (1/9 since August 16)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Carlisle: £143.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £792.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2017

Bank Holiday Monday's Result :

4.05 Cartmel : Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG - 3rd at 9/2 : Held up in rear, headway after 14th, no impression last, went 3rd towards finish...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossall @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

An opening mark of 76 looks very workable to me about this 2yr old who has shown improvement in each of his three starts to date, finishing as a runner-up over 5f last time out.

That run was at Thirsk 24 days ago and he now drops in class for his handicap debut and becomes of further interest to me, as his trainer Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down one grade are 48/354 (13.6% SR) for 165.3pts (+46.7% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, with those returning from a short break of 16 to 25 days winning 16 of 101 (15.8%) and making 56.1pts (+55.5%) in the process.

Today's jockey Paul Mulrennan is Rossall's only rider to date, so they've already begun to forge an understanding and Paul comes here aiming to add to his tally of 8 Carlisle wins already this season. Those eight wins have come from just 30 rides (26.7% SR) and have rewarded followers with profits of 20.9pts at an ROI of 69.5%. And, from those 30 rides, he is 5/10 (50%) for 21.5pts (+215%) on horses trained by Michael Dods!

And finally, Paul Mulrennan is one of the few jockeys you can regularly trust to get a favourite over the line, as he's been profitable to follow on favs in each of the past eight seasons, winning 192 times on 500 favourites (38.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 72.2pts (+14.4% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 104/308 (33.8%) for 57.3pts (+18.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 93/222 (41.9%) for 43.8pts (+19.7%)
  • and here at Carlisle : 12/31 (38.7%) for 4.95pts (+16%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rossall @ 3/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.45pm on Monday, although there was some 10/3 BOG at Ladbrokes.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday August 23rd

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £51.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (Edward Lewis), 5 (Orion’s Bow), 2 (Moviestar) & 4 (Line Of Reason)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Dee Ex Bee), 5 (Fleet Review) & 8 (Lansky)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cracksman) & 8 (Venice Beach)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Churchill) & 3 (Ulysses)

Leg 5 (4.15): 15 (Theydon Grey), 10 (My Reward) & 11 (Oceane)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Zap), 6 (Green Fortune) & 13 (Areen Faisal)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Seven of the eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 in the opening event, whilst high numbers have generally been favoured when the ground is riding on the fast side.  Only seven of the 20 declarations qualify via the weigh trend this time around.  With conditions (hopefully) set to favour the top stalls early at the meeting at the very least, the likes of EDWARD LEWIS, ORION’S BOW and MOVIESTAR post ticks in both of the relevant boxes, with LINE OF REASON (trap 3) added into the mix as last year’s gold medallist broke from stall five.  Paul Midgley (LINE OF REASON) has saddled three horses to finish in the frame on day one of the meeting during the last six years and on each occasion, the Placepot positions were claimed in this event.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):

5-2-19-4 (20 ran-good to firm)

5-3-7-6 (20 ran-good to soft)

15-8-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10-5 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-18-13-15 (19 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

15-16-8 (15 ran-good)

18-13-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/6—Moviestar (soft)

1/3—Gracious John (good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good)

2/5—Thesme (2 x good)

3/15—Hoof It (good to firm)

1/8—Robot Boy (good)

1/3—Shamson (good)

 

2.25: Trainer Mark Johnston (DEE EX BEE) is looking to win the race for the fourth time, albeit his last winner was recorded way back in 2004 which for a trainer of Mark's distinction, is somewhat surprising.  Aidan O'Brien's two victories in the contest emerged way before Mark's last gold medallist whereby FLEET REVIEW would not be winning out of turn. Both trainers are saddling their fair share of winners just now, though they can hardly the match the recent Jeremy Noseda ratio of 4/5, his loser having finished second behind a Sir Michael Stoute hot-pot on Monday.  Jeremy saddles LANSKY with win and place claims after a debut success at Winsdor though as a son of Dark Angel, some more showers would not have gone amiss for connections of this ‘Dewhurst’ entry. Accordingly, DEE EX BEE and FLEET REVIEW are marginally preferred from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to firm)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-7-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

9-3 (7 ran-good)

7-10-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-4 (7 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (6 ran-good)

7-2-3 (9 ran-good)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

2-4 (5 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-4-6 (9 ran-good)

Record of the course winners in the 'Acomb':

1/1—Ulshaw Bridge (good)

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1/1—Wells Farhh Go (good to soft)

 

3.00: Aidan O’Brien (whose previous – only - success in this event was gained back in 2003 with Powerscourt before last year’s victory with Idaho) confuses matters given that the popular Irish trainer saddles three of the eight runners (three of seven the previous year without success), with the Chester Vase bronze winner VENICE BEACH expected to lead his two stable companions home on this occasion.  Whether any of Aidan's runners will be able to cope with CRACKSMAN is debateable however, with John Gosden’s Frankel colt gaining the bronze medal at Epsom before going one better to snare silver at Curragh in the two Derby events at the tracks this year.  CRACKSMAN surely deserves to get his first Group race under his belt here.

Favourite factor: 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 14 of the last 20 renewals of the 'Juddmonte' between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 10-4 in the process.  This is the race in which Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard in the inaugural year of 1972.  Since then the 45 renewals have produced the following vintage trends; 3YO: 15 wins--4YO: 21 wins--5YO: 9 wins.  That said, the three-year-olds might gain the day on this occasion with BARNEY ROY and CHURCHILL having been declared, though Sir Michael Stoute will be just as confident as the other connections I’ll wager, having offered the green light to his four-year-old representative ULYSSES who is seemingly still progressing from race to race. ULYSSES ran out of gas at Ascot in the ‘King George’ last time out whereby this drop back in trip will suit.  If you fancy the main protagonists to be thwarted, CLIFFS OF MOHER and SHUTTER SPEED (could have done with more juice in the ground) appear to be the pick of the opposition.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders have won this event during the last 19 years alongside a joint favourite. 14 of the 20 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Every winner during the previous 11 years had been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, before Arabian Queen scored at 50/1 to inflict one of just two defeats during the career of Golden Horn (4/9) in the contest two years ago.

Record of course winners in the 'Juddmonte' field:

1/1—My Dream Boat (good to soft)

1/1—Shutter Speed (soft)

 

4.15: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the eight contests thus far, with THEYDON GREY deserving top billing, the four-year-old coming to the gig on a four timer.  Georgia Cox’s mount receives the benefit of the five pound claimer in the saddle who remains great value for the allowance.  Throw in the fact that William Haggas is by far the most successful trainer at the meeting during the last six years (sixteen winners) and THEYDON GREY jumps off the page.  MY REWARD cannot be overlooked given his record of two gold medals and one of the silver variety in races contested over two miles or more, whilst last year’s winner OCEANE completes my trio against the field.   Trainer Alan King looks to have mapped this race out for his five-year-old gelding again, given that OCEANE is only one pound ‘wrong’ compared to twelve months ago taking the official rating and weight into consideration.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include two (9/2 & 5/2) winners.

Course winners in the marathon contest:

2/5—Yorkidding (good)

1/1—Saigon City (good to firm)

1/5—Shrewd (good)

1/1—Magic Cirsle (good)

1/2—Oceane (good to firm)

1/2—Edge Of Sanity (good to firm)

3/4—Theydon Grey (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.55: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of the race and comes to the party on a hat trick this time around. Stable companion AREEN FAISAL will be preferred my many of Richard’s supporters with Paul Hanagan doing the steering, but has Richard demanded the services of a claimer in order for ZAP to run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap?  GREEN FORTUNE is the other William Haggas runner on the card and with Willie being one of four trainers who has saddled three winners on the first day of the meeting during the last six years, his Sayif colt boasts definite claims. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to KILAGIA who represents Mark Johnston who probably deserves to win the race having saddled the second (20/1), third (10/1) and fourth (50/1) placed runners twelve months ago!

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via 15 renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Six of the last nine winners have scored at 33/1-33/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.

Course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Zap (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

8 runners—Mark Johnston (1/23 – loss of 12 points)

6—Aidan O’Brien (0/1)

4—Richard Fahey (3/81 – loss of 62 points)

4—David O’Meara (4/54 - +18)

3—Andrew Balding (3/8 - +27)

3—Tim Easterby (8/49 - +41)

3—Richard Hannon (0/13)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/29 – loss of 21 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (3/13 - +13)

2—Mick Channon (0/9)

2—Roger Charlton (0/2)

2—Clive Cox (0/1)

2—Michael Easterby (0/8)

2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 3 points)

2—William Haggas (11/27 - +31)

2—Charlie Hills (0/9)

2—Iain Jardine (1/7 - +14)

2—Paul Midgley (1/17 – loss of 2 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/10)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £168.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £39.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Kempton: £185.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £226.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 9 (Bihindi) & 1 (Arden Pearl)

Leg 2 (5.45): 3 (Funky Footsteps), 4 (Raj Balaraaj) & 1 (Choral Clan)

Leg 3 (6.15): 6 (Sir Plato) & 4 (Prost)

Leg 4 (6.45): 5 (Handytalk), 4 (Ice Age) & 7 (Major Pusey)

Leg 5 (7.15): 6 (Sea Tide) & 11 (Superioritycomplex)

Leg 6 (7.45): 7 (St Andrews), 3 (Medalla De Oro) & 6 (Tynecastle Park)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: I’m often telling you to be wary of what you read and/or hear and this opening event is a case in point.  The trade press have this down as a new race.  It is not a new race and that has nothing to do with the ‘novice scenario’ which I have referred to many times.  High in numbers but low on potential winners, this race will not require a great deal of winning.  ARDEN PEARL and (particularly) BIHINDI should get us safely through the opening leg, though I would not entertain the race aside from our favourite wager.  Money for Rupert’s Lass would add interest to proceedings, though there was none in evidence at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (11/10) winner.  Last year’s 33/1 winner was accompanied by a 25/1 placed horse; mind how you tread!

 

5.45: For all that it is difficult to know why there has been overnight support for CHORAL CLAN, I feel duty bound to report the move whereby it looks as though you can ignore the 16/1 trade press quote about Brendan Powell’s top weight.  Perhaps potential investors have lost confidence in the other entries (it would not be difficult) and though there was some each way value to be obtained about Brendan’s Oratorio gelding, FUNKY FOOTSTEPS and RAJ BALARAAJ should provide the winner between them.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite finished nearer last than first in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

6.15: Spare a though for the horse box drivers now and then, particularly those associated with Rod Millman’s yard down in Devon, who often have long journeys to make with few local course around from a flat venue perspective.  Rod’s yard is not far from Tiverton and any NH runners in his yard could ply their trade locally at several tracks, which is not the case on the level.  Three-year-old SIR PLATO represents Rod here, one of two runners on the card for the trainer whereby at least the two thoroughbreds can have some ‘horsy chat’ en route.  Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, despite the fact that vintage were not represented five years ago. PROST is the other junior declaration this evening in a ‘short field’ event.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 23 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/3—Sir Plato (good to firm – good – good to soft)

 

6.45: Four-year-olds have won the last four renewals, with Rod Millman’s other runner on the card (HANDYTALK) being one of four vintage representatives this time around.  HANDYTALK is assured his position in my Placepot mix alongside Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider ICE AGE, who represents the trainer who secured a massive 645/1 double on the corresponding card last year.  You can forget the 9/1 trade press quote about Ice Age who is likelier to off at around 5/1.  John Gallagher secured a Goodwood contest last week with Quench Dolly and his raider MAJOR PUSEY completes my trio against the other seven contenders in this event.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners), with other gold medallists recorded have been recorded at 25/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1-8/1-7/1-13/2-3/1.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Little Palaver (good to firm)

1/5—Ice Age (good to firm)

1/5—Handytalk (good)

1/6—Clear Spring (good)

1/3—Major Pusey (good to soft)

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1/2—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

1/3—King Of Spain (good)

 

7.15: SEA TIDE has been the subject of overnight support and it is not difficult to see why Hugo Palmer’s Champs Elesees filly has attracted money after a fine seasonal debut at Nottingham.  I guess that SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX is the logical danger, though there will be worse outsiders on the card than STRUCK BY THE MOON I’ll wager.  Charlie Hills (saddled three consecutive winners towards the back end of last week) was obviously sweet on his Fastnet Rock filly last year as market support came in for the 4/1 chance on her only start to date.

Favourite factor: I’m not sure why the trade press has the two races which are confined to fillies described as new races on the card; because they are not new events.  For the record, market leaders have secured three of the last five renewals.

 

7.45: There has been some money for Tynecastle Park, though more logical winners in the contest include ST ANDREWS and MEDALLA DE ORO from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Richard Hughes (4/34 – loss of 8 points)

2—George Baker (0/5)

2—Michael Bell (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

2—John Bridger (1/16 – loss of 78 points)

2—Clive Cox (6/19 – Profit of 20 points)

2—David Evans (4/48 – loss of 8 points)

2—Peter Hedger (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Rod Millman (4/19 – slight loss)

2—William Muir (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ian Williams (1/4 – Profit of 6 points)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £300.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Salisbury: £48.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £229.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 14

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £4,871.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Fawaareq), 8 (Parfait), 7 (Swift Approval) & 17 (Ripoli)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Clemmie) & 8 (Out Of The Flames)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Titi Makfi), 7 (Monticello) & 9 (Oasis Charm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wuheida) & 5 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Gold Town), 2 (Starlight Mystery), 11 (Merchant Marine) & 9 (Arabian Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Being There) & 10 (Rastrelli)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Course winners are few and far between in the other races at Newmarket today but three of the six relevant runners here are worth a second glance.  PARFAIT is the most obvious contender I guess for John Gosden, though all eight of his runners were beaten at the venue yesterday on a day in which the trainer has done well in recent years.  PARFAIT cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, though I am wondering if any value for money long since disappeared relating to William Buick’s mount.  FAWEEREQ boasts a 2/2 ratio and having won under opposite conditions whereby connections have no worries on account of the ground.  SWIFT APPROVAL beat just nine rivals in the contest last year when trained by Kevin Ryan, though he has yet to prove himself for the Stuart Williams team.  That said, Stuart saddled a winner here yesterday and the trainer has never been frightened of running horses that are seemingly up against superior rivals.  Running off the same mark as last year, SWIFT APPROVAL is arguably worth a small saver at around the 20/1 mark.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RIPOLI I’ll wager, even though Sylvester Kirk’s four time A/W winner has yet to open his account on turf.  The strength of his three Kempton wins make the current 25/1 mark look attractive from an each way perspective.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date won its respective contest at 5/1 before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Makzeem (good to soft)

2/2—Fawaareq (good to firm & soft)

1/4—Gunmetal (good to soft)

1/1—Swift Approval (good to firm)

1/1—Parfait (good)

2/5—Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ is the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and saddling the Queen Mary bronze medallist OUT OF THE FLAMES gives Richard a sporting chance of landing another victory on behalf of the stable.  Time could prove that finishing three lengths adrift of Heartache at Royal Ascot was a fine effort.  William Buick was quoted as saying that Heartache was a ‘class apart’ from the other juvenile winners at Ascot this year and OUT OF THE FLAMES could add weight to William’s argument.  CLEMMIE disappointed at Ascot a few weeks back but came bouncing back to form via a Group 3 victory and this one grade hike might not be beyond Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly.  Roly Poly took a similar route to the circle reserved for the winner in last year’s race for the yard and lightning could strike twice this afternoon to leave Irish eyes smiling.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst 15/22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has won the last four renewals and in TITI MAKFI and MONTCELLO, Mark has definite claims of saddling his sixth winner of the race within the last 11 years.  The pair are listed in order of preference, though there may not be a great deal of daylight between the stable companions at the jamstick.  If Mark is to be denied another success, OASIS CHARM could prove to be the joker in the pack with Charlie Appleby’s team in great form just now.  That said, when are Charlie’s runners anything but prominent on the racecourse?  The weight concession is against Leshlaa who is overlooked accordingly, though I still expect to Godolphin raider to run well.

Favourite factor: 10 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last 10 gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Group 1 event and the junior course winners look to have a firm grip on the contest this time around.  ROLY POLY is as tough as teak and not many fillies would want to get into street battle with Aidan O’Brien’s raider who won the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on the corresponding card twelve months ago.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi filly WUHEIDA could yet be anything, given that she is a winner of her two races to date, her second success coming in the Group 1 ‘Marcel Boussac’ last back end.  If she can turn Roly Poly over here on her seasonal debut, the sky could literally be the limit for William Buick’s mount.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Falmouth Stakes:

1/1—Roly Poly (good to firm)

1/1—Wuheida (good to firm)

 

4.10: Six of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chances of GOLD TOWN and SRTARLIGHT MYSTERY from the 'inferior' sector of the weights, especially as more recent renewals have gone the way of horses higher up the handicap.  Indeed, three of the last four winners have carried 9-5 or more which supports my argument in nominating the top pair in my Placepot mix.  Ralph Beckett saddled last year’s winner and his Epaulette colt MERCHANT MARINE in not without place claims, arguably alongside ARABIAN JAZZ.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the 14 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Although market leaders have won six of the twelve renewals to date, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.

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4.45:  Six of the last 13 renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  From a Placepot perspective, Charlie Appleby looks to have this contested all wrapped with a pretty bow given that BEING THERE will surely take a great deal of kicking out of the frame following a highly promising debut.  Add his expensive breeze-up newcomer RASTRELLI into the equation and we should be able to spend the rest of the afternoon in the bar.  Perhaps later in the day you could look up the film Being There and finish off Friday by watching the truly superb performance of Peter Sellers in a captivating movie (imo).

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13/24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 116 representatives during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday + ‘scoresheet’ from Day 1 at Newmarket July meeting!

7 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/6 on the 1st day at 7/2 & 9/2 = 23/1 double)

6—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Charlie Hills (0/2)

4—Mark Johnston (1/4 - winner at 8/1)

3—John Gosden (0/8)

3—John Quinn (No runners yesterday)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

3—Stuart Williams (winner at 7/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (No runners yesterday)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Simon Crisford (No runners yesterday)

2—Luca Cumani (No runners yesterday)

2—Robert Cowell (0/1)

2—Jim Goldie (No runners yesterday)

2—William Haggas (No runners yesterday)

2—Stan Moore (No runners yesterday)

2—Jeremy Noseda (No runners yesterday)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Ian Williams (No winners yesterday)

1 runner today—Andrew Balding (1/2 yesterday - winner at 7/1)

1 runner today—Brian Meehan (1/2 yesterday – winner at 7/2

+ 25 different other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £152.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chepstow: £4,779.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Musselburgh: £276.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £573.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 8

SANDOWN - JULY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £481.00 (9 favourites 2 winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 10 (Ariena), 6 (Mojito) & 8 (Almoreb)

Leg 2 (1.50): 9 (Battaash), 11 (Tis Marvellous) & 3 (Goldream)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Greenside), 5 (Blair House), 12 (Sir Roderic) & 13 (El Hayem)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Queen Of Time) & 6 (Standing Rock)

Leg 5 (3.35): 5 (Barney Roy) & 6 (Cliffs Of Moher)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Fun Mac), 4 (Montaly) & 3 (High Jinx)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: I'm starting 'Eclipse Day' in positive mode by informing that six favourites have won this event during the last fourteen years which is a great ratio in this sector of the sport.  'Team Hannon' have saddled three of the last eleven winners and ALMOREB is the stable contender with genuine claims this time around.  That said, Richard’s Raven’s Pass colt has yet to race on ground this fast, a scenario which might let in the likes of ARIENA and MOJITO.

Favourite factor:  Six favourites have scored via seventeen renewals to date.  13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last fifteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less which is almost unprecedented in the world of three-year-old handicaps.

 

2.00: Three-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals with vintage representatives are around the 11/4 mark to improve the ratio this time around.  The pick of the relevant trio will hopefully prove to be course and distance winner BATTAASH, with Charlie Hills seemingly having ‘the gift’ in terms of handling sprinters to winning effect at a decent level.  Landing a Listed contest in good style last time under similar conditions, the hike up to Group 3 class may not be beyond Charlie’s Dark Angel gelding.  Connections might have most to fear from fellow three-year-old raider TIS MARVELLOUS and GOLDREAM at the business end of proceedings, especially as they are also well enough drawn to win if at the top of their respective games.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have scored during the last 21 years, whilst 14 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the second race: 

1/3--Willyttheconqueror (good to soft)

1/1—Battaash (good to firm)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals and it comes as no surprise to witness 7/17 declarations hailing from the vintage, stats which equate to odds of around 11/8 for the trend to be extended. The pick of the relevant horses here include SIR RODERIC and EL HAYEM, especially as horses carrying a maximum burden of 9-2 have won six of the last eight contests.  Both horses could represent value for money, with 20/1 & 10/1 freely available at the time of writing respectively.  Further up the handicap, the chances for GREENSIDE and BLAIR HOUSE are there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card: 

1/2—Gm Hopkins (good)

1/2—Greenside (good to firm)

1/2—Manson (good to firm)

2/8—Secret Art (good & soft)

2/4—Sir Roderic (good & good to soft)

 

3.00: QUEEN OF TIME might have been a little too far out of her ground to win the Listed Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and in this smaller field, James Doyle should be able to pick his spot for his Harbour Watch filly to pounce at the right time.  STANDING ROCK could literally be ‘anything’ having scored on debut and this race will tell us much more about John Gosden’s Fastnet Rock filly.  Ryan Moore’s mount was an exceptionally late May foal, whereby it came as no surprise for John Gosden to bide his time with what looks a useful prospect.

Favourite factor:  Six of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (four winners), though the shortest priced market leader (10/11) finished out of the money eleven years ago.

 

3.35: Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners of the ‘Eclipse’ during the last fifteen years with two horses representing the wizard on this occasion. It's worth noting however the slightly negative recent figures of Aidan's team in recent years which suggests that BARNEY ROY might only need to stay this stiff ten furlong trip to take the spoils.  A brilliant winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, connections still believe that ‘Roy’ could have won the 2000 Guineas in a truly run classic and what we would be saying about the Hannon horse if that scenario has been in place coming into this all aged contest.  The problem of course is that Aidan has a proven stayer at the head of the market, with CLIFFS OF MOHER of finding only one too good for him in the Epsom Derby.  EMINENT has always been held in the highest regard by connections, whilst the pick of the outsiders could prove to be SALOUEN at around the 50/1 mark.

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Record of the course winners in the ‘Eclipse’: 

1/1—Decorated Knight (good)

1/1—Ulysses (good)

 

4.10: Six-year-olds have won five of the last twelve renewals of the Placepot finale with this year's vintage representatives at 5/2 to improve the ratio before form is taken into account.  FUN MAC and MONTALY are the relevant horses on this occasion and they will be joined by HIGH JINX to complete my Placepot permutation in an attempt to claim three of the last four pots.  Tim Easterby scored with a 50/1 chance on Thursday but Ryan Moore’s mount (HIGH JINX) will start at a fraction of that price in the ‘lucky last’ on Saturday.

Favourite factor: Six of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday:

5 runners—David Simcock

4—John Gosden

4—Richard Hannon

3—Henry Candy

3—Clive Cox

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Andrew Balding

2—Roger Charlton

2—David Elsworth

2—William Haggas

2—Charlie Hills

2—Mark Johnston

2—Sylvester Kirk

2—Hughie Morrison

2—Aidan O’Brien

2—Hugo Palmer

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £66.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £522.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £159.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Leicester: £203.20 – 9 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 6 unplaced

Nottingham: £79.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday June 28

SALISBURY – JUNE 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £106.50 (7 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 placed)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Aljellaby), 5 (Christopher Wood) & 11 (Macaque)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Pettochside), 4 (Satchville Flyer) & 3 (Inibaah)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (Onenightinparadise), 2 Another Day Of Sun) & 3 (Wildnightinvegas)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Great Sound) & 3 (Stone The Crows)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Swahbuckle), 6 (Hatsaway) & 7 (Rosa Demascina)

Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Sir Roderic) & 4 (Storm Rock)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10:  Word of warning today; ground conditions softening all the time I would wager given the amount of rain which has fallen in Bristol (an hour or so away from Salisbury) this morning. Best of the shorter priced runners: ALJELLABY - Pick of the each way contenders: CHRISTOPHER WOOD - Outsider to consider: MACAQUE

Favourite factor: 12 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: Best of the shorter priced runners: PETTOCHSIDE - Pick of the each way contenders: SATCHVILLE FLYER - Outsider to consider: INTIBAAH

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have snared toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include four (7/2, 3/1, 11/4 and 5/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/7—Waseem Faris (good to firm)

1/1—Pettochside (soft)

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

 

3.10: Best of the shorter priced runners: ONENIGHTINPARADISE - Pick of the each way contenders: ANOTHER DAY OF SUN - Outsider to consider: WILDNIGHTINVEGAS

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  12 of the 15 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other three contests.

 

3.40: Nine of the 16 winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include six of the last ten gold medallists. Best of the shorter priced runners: GREAT SOUND - Pick of the each way contenders: STONE THE CROWS

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 11 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged three years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Stone The Crows (firm)

1/1—Seafarer (good to firm)

 

4.10: The last ten winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against two of the three horses at the top of the weight, with the other reprieved via a jockey allowance.  Best of the shorter priced runners: SWASHBUCKLE - Pick of the each way contenders: HATSAWAY - Outsider to consider: ROSA DEMASCINA

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites (via eleven renewals) to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

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1/1—Hatsaway (soft)

1/8—Cotton Club (good to firm)

 

4.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last twelve renewals of this contest whilst nine of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5.  STORM ROCK is the only player with ticks in both boxes in the last leg of our favourite wager, though with four-year-olds having secured four of the last five renewals, the chances of SIR RODERIC and WIND IN MY SAILS are respected. The ground could be quite soft by the time this event is contested, condition that would not worry the connection of either STORM ROCK or SIR RODERIC.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Storm Rock (soft)

1/1—Takatul (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Salisbury card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Rod Millman (2/15 – loss of 2 points)

3—Andrew Balding (2/13 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Mick Channon (0/12)

3—David Evans (0/10)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/3)

2—George Baker (No previous runners)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

2—Peter Chapple Hyam (0/1)

2—Charlie Hills (1/4 – Slight profit)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (3/25 – loss of 12 points)

2—Mark Johnston (1/1 – Profit of 16 points)

2—Alan King (0/1)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/2 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Pat Phelan (No previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £760.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Carlisle: £251.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £32.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £109.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday June 19

WINDSOR – JUNE 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 3 (Hope Is High) & 4 (Powered)

Leg 2 (6.15): 3 (Expecting), 4 (Gotti) & 2 (Demons Rock)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Shovel It On), 8 (Tie Em Up Tel) & 1 (Bumble Beeze)

Leg 4 (7.15): 6 (Handytalk), 4 (King Of Spin) & 2 (Cool Bahamian)

Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (Manton Grange), 9 (Shifting Star) & 8 (Tarseekh)

Leg 6 (8.15): 7 (Percy B Shelley) & 8 (Prerogative)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Please scroll down to the foot of the page for overviews + more Royal Ascot stats (for Tuesday)

 

5.45: T'was good to get back to winning ways via yesterday's Salisbury Placepot, especially with the big Royal Aascot meeting drawing ever nearer.  Upwards and onward by informing that four of the five winners have carried 9-1 or more in the first race at Windsor which eliminates the bottom two horses in the list if you take the stats seriously, as does this self confessed ‘anorak’.  HOPE IS HIGH is sent out again just five days after winning at Yarmouth, though Silvestre De Sousa was winning on just about everything he rode at the time which tempers enthusiasm to a fashion here with a different pilot in the plate.  That said, John Berry should be congratulated for finding another winning opportunity for his four-year-old raider, vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick.  Another four-year-old is (seemingly) the obvious danger, namely POWERED who should also figure prominently in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders (one gold and two silver medallists) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/8--Moonjaned (good to firm & soft)

2/5--Shirataki (good to firm & soft)

 

6.20: DEMONS ROCK enters my last (two-year-old) last chance saloon from a win perspective, given that excuses could have been made on the last two (of three) assignments thus far.  His Placepot chance is there for all to see from a decent draw, though EXPECTING and GOTTI could well thwart the Tom Dascombe raider as far as win money is concerned.  Both horses showed enough ability at the first time of asking to suggest that a small race should be there for the taking before too long, though their wide stall positions offer no assistance whatsoever.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader found one too good when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

6.45: David Evans has won five of the last six renewals and with four of the ten entries in David’s care, the stable is 6/4 to land a five-timer in the contest before the form book is evaluated.  SHOVEL IT ON and TIE EM UP TELL look sure to be there or thereabouts at the furlong marker, possibly alongside BUMBLE BEEZE who could turn out to be the joker in the pack if David and his team are to be denied their nap hand in the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last 13 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 12 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last eleven gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  13/14 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.15: All eleven winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of HANDYTALK, KING OF SPIN and COOL BAHMAIN. All three horses are saddled by in form trainers (Rod Millman, Richard Hughes and Eve Johnson Houghton respectively), whilst the last six gold medallists have carried 8-13 or more.  All three horses qualify via the weight trends.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed toteplacepot positions via eight contests at the time.  The last three renewals reverted to type as two of the three market leaders have finished out with the washing (no further winners).

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Pretty Bubbles (good to firm)

1/2—King Of Spin (good)

1/6--Ginzan (good to soft)

1/4—Handy Talk (good)

1/7—Whitecrest (heavy)

1/2—Picket Line (good)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eleven renewals thus far, yet only two trainers (of nine in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with the pair of vintage representatives coming to the party on a four-timer on this occasion.  I opted for last year’s 10/1 winner twelve months ago, though I am afraid that MANTON GRANGE will be chalked up at much shorter odds this time around.  George Baker’s soft ground Leicester winner will have different conditions here but with the yard in fine form (four of the last fifteen have won), MANTON GRANGE is the first name on the team sheet.  Fellow four-year-old TARSEEKH could outrun his odds, though a more realistic danger from a win perspective is SHIFTING STAR, who was second in the race last year off a two pound higher mark.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Ten of the eleven winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst seven of the eleven market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

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Record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/5—Ogbourne Downs (2 x good)

3/19—Shifting Star (2 x good to soft & good)

 

8.15: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last twelve renewals which is par for the course in these mixed vintage maiden events.  Although I would not have a bet from a win perspective in the contest, there seems little point in dallying around from a Placepot viewpoint with PERCY B SHELLEY and PREROGATIVE having been declared, especially with so much Royal Ascot work still to be completed!  

Favourite factor: Six recent market leaders have prevailed, though those results are evened out by the fact that three double priced gold medallists have emerged at 50/1-16/1-12/1 down the years. Nine of the fifteen favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Monday followed by this year’s ratios at the track:

9 runners—David Evans (1/29 – loss of 18 points)

2—John Berry (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (No previous runners at Windsor this season)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/9)

2—Charlie Fellowes (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Richard Hannon (5/22 – loss of 6 points)

2—Charlie Hills (1/9 – loss of 3 points)

2—Richard Hughes (1/18 – loss of 8 points)

2—Rod Millman (3/12 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Stan Moore (0/4)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Jonathan Portman (0/12)

2—Brendan Powell (1/7 – Profit of 6 points)

2—John Spearing 0/1)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview: 

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £50.40 (8 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Nottingham: £121.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

Wetherby (flat): This appears to be a mix fixture on the calendar

 

Another Royal Ascot 'whetting' exercise (relating to Tuesday's card via a six year study period):

39 favourites have evolved - 13 winners

29/36 winners were returned in single figures - the other seven gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 12/1 & 20/1