Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/06/24

Jabaara is 2 from 6 on the Flat and carries a 3lb penalty for winning a similar listed race at Musselburgh at the start of the month, whilst Key To Cotai also won her last start, albeit a 19-runner, Class 4 handicap just over seven weeks ago. Gaiety Musical was a runner-up (also at Class 4) on debut three weeks ago and Navassa Island was also in the frame, finishing third of thirteen in a 5½f Listed race at Cork just over six weeks ago. The inexperienced Gaiety Musical is the only one without a career win or a win inside seven starts.

So, we already know that both Gaiety Musical and Key To Cotai are making the big step up from Class 4 to Listed class and now we see that the fast-finisher Tierney also makes the same step, despite finishing 8th of 9, beaten by 7 lengths over 6f last time out; which makes this tough! Ahlain also steps up in class, having finished third of five at Class 2 in April and she now runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery.

Star Music was last home of 16 in the 1000 Guineas just over seven weeks ago on her last run for Richard Hughes, she now wears a hood for the first as she makes a yard debut for James Tate, eased in class. None of the field have raced here at Carlisle before but all bar Gaiety Musical (obviously), Heritage House, Navassa Island and Tierney have already won over 7f...

Top-weight Jabaara looks to be the standout on wins on Instant Expert, but there's not actually a great deal of data to work with if truth be told. Most of them have won on similar ground, but Navassa Island is 0 from 6 at Class 1 and has a poor return over this trip, as do Lexington Belle and Heritage House, but Navassa Island might have been unlucky because she's a regular placer...

...having made the frame in five of her eight starts, including two Group 3 places and two Listed places, so she might be there or thereabouts if she handles the step up in trip to 7f. Key To Cotai also has good numbers, but it looks like the game's up today for Heritage House with the worst results in this field.

Top weight Jabaara is drawn widest of all in stall nine and that has been a problem in similar races here at Carlisle in the past, although if truth be told, I don't think that there's a hugely discernible draw bias...

...with stalls one to eight all having pretty similar records and it might well be race tactics aka pace that decides this one. Those 50-odd races featured above have been tough for hold-up horses with the uphill finish making it difficult to peg back those ahead...

...but the other three running styles have all won plenty of races, but the further forward a horse has raced, the greater has been the chance of a win or a place, which based on this field's most recent efforts...

...suggests that there might well be three of them battling for the early lead. The problem here, of course, is that that might all do too much too soon to grab the early lead, making themselves vulnerable to likes of regular placer Navassa Island and LTO Listed winner Jabaara, even if the pace/draw heat map does support those willing to lead...

Summary

Despite some of the above suggesting a contrary view to mine, I'm fairly certain that this ends up a Jabaara/Navassa Island 1-2 with the form horse beating the perennial placer and I'm not surprised that they're the top two in the market at Evens and 9/2 respectively*

Key To Cotai was next in the betting at 6/1, but she might find the step up in class tough to deal with and if I was tempted to look for an E/W bet, the 9/1 Star Music might be the one. She has been last home in both 2024 starts, but in her defence those races were the Gr3 Fred Darling and the Gr1 1000 Guineas! She's had a change of yard/scenery and will be hooded here, so could end up being the best of the rest; she's certainly got that potential.