Racing Insights, Thursday 26/10/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

• 3.05 Lingfield
• 3.20 Carlisle
• 4.50 Southwell
• 5.11 Ludlow
• 5.30 Wolverhampton

The highest rated of those four that have survived the weather is the 3.20 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

Only three of this field, Malangen, Thereisnodoubt and Well Educated have had the benefit of a relatively recent run, but the rest of the field have been out of action for 124 to 598 days. Thereisnodoubt is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Well Educated and Russian Virtue were both in the frame on their last outings.

Well Educated, however, is the only runner in the field without a win in their last three races, as he has been beaten in each of his last eight starts since a purple patch from April to October last year which saw him finish 1213111, elevating his mark from 98 to 118. He now runs off 100, so it's form rather than weight keeping him out of the winners' enclosure, I'd have thought.

That last win of his was in this very race making him the sole course (and course/distance) winner in this field, whilst all bar Gardener, Golden Glance and Holly have scored over a similar trip elsewhere. Of that trio yet to win at the trip, Gardener and Golden Glance now run in a handicap for only the second time and the latter drops two classes to run here, whilst the former is up a level, as are Grain D'Oudairies (handicap debut today), Russian Virtue and LTO heavy-ground winner Thereisnodoubt.

Thereisnodoubt has actually won 3 times from 8 starts on heavy ground and has made the frame in 2 of his 5 defeats, but Instant Expert suggests today's going might not be soft enough for him...

...and Voix de Reve also looks unsuited by the underfoot conditions. Russian Virtue looks to be the one who'll relish good to soft/soft ground the most with a 50% win record, but Moonlight Glory will prefer it to dry a little whilst Malangen would want more rain. Well Educated's sole Class 3 win came in this race last year and Malangen is winless in five, but most of them to have tackled the trip have done OK. Only Well Educated runs off a lower mark than their last handicap success.

The place stats to go with those races above look like this...

...where quite a few of them will want the ground to soften up further and on the basis of the above, Russian Virtue has to be of interest for the frame whilst Voix du Reve looks the weakest.

Previous similar races in the past here at Carlisle have seen those setting the pace do quite well, but they have sometimes been vulnerable to being picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners in the past...

...but anywhere in the upper reaches of the pace chart would be a good starting point in my opinion and based on the field's recent runs...

...LTO winner Thereisnodoubt looks set to contest the early lead with Gardener, whilst the hold-up tactics generally employed by Voix du Reve would appear to be yet another nail in the coffin for his chances of winning here.

Summary

If we start with the pace chart, Thereisnodoubt won last time out and has had a recent run. He'd definitely prefer softer ground, but it has been wet in the North again today. Gardener was well beaten on his handicap debut nine months ago and hasn't been seen since.

Jante Law is certain to need a run after 598 days off, I know he won his penultimate outing, but that was some 30 months ago, having unseated his rider on his sole run last year. Malangen is a consistent enough sort off marks in the high 80's to low/mid 90's, but looks to be carrying too much here off 100.

Grain D'Oudairies won on hurdles debut, before tiring late on in a 2m3½f contest here at Carlisle back in April. The drop in trip should help him and after just three career outings (1 x NHF, 2 x Hrd), he's certainly unexposed and Well Educated won this race last last year from his usual mid-division/prominent running position. He was in great form this time last year, but had toiled since then until a drop in mark of late saw him make the frame at Bangor and Cartmel in August.

Of those mentioned above, I'm not really interested in Gardener, Jante Law or Malangen, but that still leaves three under consideration plus Russian Virtue due to his Instant Expert scores.

I do like Thereisnodoubt, but I've concerns about the going and a 4lb rise in weight and with that in mind, I don't think 11/2 offers much value. Grain D'Oudairies is the current favourite at 10/3 with Bet365 (just 11/4 with Hills) and whilst he might well be the one to beat, he's unproven and the price is too skinny for me.

As for Russian Virtue and Well Educated, they are both currently available at 12's and I think that a small E/W bet on either (or both) would be my way forward here. I'm not convinced either have what's needed to win this, but both are more than capable of making the frame, especially with Betfred, Coral & Sky paying four places.

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• Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24
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