Tag Archive for: Cheltenham racecourse

Tix Picks, Saturday 14/12/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Cheltenham, Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newcastle, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

Things didn't exactly go to plan for me at Cheltenham on Friday, but my shortlists showed I was looking at the right horses, even if my final decision was a little off, so I'll head back to the good to soft ground at HQ undeterred for another crack starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Quantock Hills was second on debut at Wetherby two months ago but won next/last time out by seven lengths at Fontwell. This, however is a big step up in quality and more will be needed here. Moutarde also steps up in class after a 7 length success on his last run after finishing a distant 4th of 10 here at Cheltenham on his UK debut in a similar race to this one.

Total Look was a winner on the Flat over 1m2½f at Roscommon in May, before a runner-up finish over 1m4f at the same venue in mid-October. He then made a hurdles debut at Navan four weeks ago, where he travelled strongly and jumped well to win by half a length. His ground speed could hold the key. Small Fry is also quick across the ground having finished 121122 in six efforts on the Flat since mid-July. he has since tackled hurdles twice but after finishing a reasonable third at Fontwell was last home of 5 beaten by 28 lengths at Sandown earlier this month.

Ambiente Amigo gets weight all round here and won on hurdling debut at the end of October before finishing third of ten in a Listed race last time out. More than useful on the Flat too, she could be going places.

In a tricky race to call (8) Ambiente Amigo would be my first choice ahead of (3) Moutarde and (4) Total Look. Moutarde was actually 28/1 with Bet365 on Friday evening and that looks a very tempting E/W play.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Peaky Boy finished second and then first in two bumpers and is three from three over obstacles (2 x hrd & 1 x chs), all here at Cheltenham over 2m4½f. This trip will test him, but he always seems to have plenty in hand and the five-timer beckons. Transmission won his last hurdle race (over 3m1f) back in April and then was second here at Cheltenham over 3m½f on his chase debut October. He then stepped up a furlong this course and distance for his first win over fences four weeks ago and is only up 3lbs.

Haiti Couleurs won both of his last two over hurdles in the spring and would have own on chase debut at Chepstow in October but for a bad mistake at the last. He did, however, set the record straight with a 15 length success at Aintree five weeks ago and he's the one to beat here for me. Livin On Luco comes here off the back of a win at Newton Abbot when coming off a 207-day absence to make a debut over fences and a first handicap run.

I fancy (6) Haiti Couleurs to edge out (2) Peaky Boy here and I'll also take (9) Livin On Luco as the backup plan who might also be a nice E/W option at 25/1.

Leg 3 @ 1.13...Coco Mademoiselle was only beaten by a head on chase debut back in September, but ten lengths clear of Jesuitique back in fourth place who has since won a Class 2 handicap. Coco won her sole bumper prior to finishes of 212P12 over hurdles and this makes her my 'one to beat'. Autumn Return is two from three over fences so far but has had some fitness/injury issues this season. Was useful over hurdles, making the frame in 8 (4 wins) of 12 and if fit/ready could go well again here at a big price (22/1 E/W anyone?)

Realisation won over hurdles at Southwell this time last year but disappointed in two subsequent runs prior to a summer break, a wind op and a switch to fences that has seen her make the frame on both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a quarter first up and by a head last time out. Theonewedreamof was a winner over fences at Tipperary in July, but hasn't tackled a fence since and was well beaten on the Flat at Galway in August. Not one to write-off just yet, but I suspect she'll need the run here.

Bottom-weight Getbazoutofhere completes my shortlist and she seems to have come into her own over fences this year, finishing as runner-up at Exeter in April and winning at Hereford in may before a six month break. She then returned with another Hereford win and was a runner-up at Leicester 12 days ago and goes off the same mark here.

(2) Coco Mademoiselle is the one for me here and I think that (4) Autumn Return might defy the big odds, but I also can't ignore the form of (13) Getbazoutofhere, so they're my three for this one.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Ga Law won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in 2022 and was a runner-up in it four weeks ago for a third runner-up finish on the bounce (Gr2, C2 & C1) and was a course and distance winner here in a Class 1 handicap in late January. Le Patron was largely unimpressive on four starts over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences in the last 14 months finishing 1114P1 with a 3 from 3 record in handicap chases including defying a 260-day break to win at Newbury a fortnight ago and he could have more to give.

Fugitif likes it here at HQ, making the frame in 4 of 8 starts including 1 win which came in this very race last year. He's 1lb lower than that run now and ran well on his comeback run recently. Il Ridoto beat Ga Law to land the Gold Cup here last month and seemed to have plenty in hand and he was only a short head behind Fugitif in this race last year; went very close in this contest last year, so this trio are fairly evenly matched.

The last one I've got noted is Gemirande who comes here off the back of a good seven lengths success at Ascot three weeks ago. He ran so well for a horse not seen for seven months that the assessor has thumped him with an 8lb rise and this new mark of 136 might just be beyond him.

A(nother) tough one to call here, with all five more than capable, but I'm going to go with the closely matched trio of (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Six are set to run; I'll split the field in half and look at three runners...

(1) Master Chewy fell at Sandown a week ago and also fell here in a Grade 1 four starts ago, but has proven over the last fourteen months that when staying upright he always gives you a run for your money finishing 1221424, with a grade 2 win last Christmas in that line-up.

(2) Libberty Hunter might need the run after eight months off, but has finished 1123 in his four starts over the last twelve months, including a Class 3 win and a Class 1 runner-up here at Cheltenham

(5) Issar D'Airy probably has something to find on the two above, but was a good second of eight at Ascot in a Class 1 handicap in early November which shows that on his day he's very capable. he just needs more days like that!

I'll take all three to be sure!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...This race really ought to be all about Skyjack Hijack, who after finishing 7th of 11 on debut at Aintree just over a year ago has made the frame in all nine starts and has won each of his last six. He likes to set the tempo of the race, hurdles and a good change of pace and stays beyond 3m on heavy ground, so no stamina issues.

Of the challengers Clondaw General won an Irish PTP, was sold for £150k afterwards and then went on to win a 4-runner novice hurdle at Worcester in October. Has done nothing wrong so far, but this is much tougher. Jet Blue makes a UK debut after 14 races in France, winning four times up to 2m2f. Like many French imports, soft underfoot conditions don't pose a threat, but the trip might.

Western Knight has already proven to be better over hurdles than in bumpers, having won both efforts over obstacles so far, including getting home by a head over 2m6f in a Class 2 race last time out. he doesn't do things easily but is very game and will battle until the end.

(2) Skyjack Hijack has to be the pick here, but I'm also having (3) Western Knight and (5) Clondaw General in a belts and braces approach to the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (8) Ambiente Amigo, (3) Moutarde & (4) Total Look

Leg 2: (6) Haiti Couleurs, (2) Peaky Boy & (9) Livin On Luco

Leg 3: (2) Coco Mademoiselle, (4) Autumn Return & (13) Getbazoutofhere

Leg 4: (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto

Leg 5: (1) Master Chewy, (2) Libberty Hunter & (5) Issar D'Airy

Leg 6: (2) Skyjack Hijack, (3) Western Knight & (5) Clondaw General

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


I'm out of the house incredibly early on Saturday morning and therefore had to compile this late on Friday night, so fingers crossed for no withdrawals. 

Good Luck and have a great weekend,
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 13/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Bangor, Cheltenham, Cork, Doncaster, Dundalk & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a bumper £100,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

The card at Cheltenham looks a tricky one, but with at least £100k up for grabs, we have to at least have a try. The going is expected to be good to soft for the card which begins with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Country Mile won his sole bumper and on his hurdling debut before a solid third behind a 7/4 favourite in a Grade 2 contest last time out. A mistake at the last contributed to a three-length defeat, but he was 17 lengths clear of the next horse. This is a big drop in class. Palacio steps up in class after being somewhat of a surprise winner (20/1) at Chepstow in October, where he made all on soft ground. This looks a tougher assignment.

Wingmen makes a UK debut after winning two of three bumpers and his sole run over hurdles, all in Ireland. He does like to get on with things, so I expect him to provide early company for Palacio who might then feel the heat. That's Nice won a 3m PTP back in February and a 2m3f hurdle contest at Warwick three weeks ago, so comes here defending her 100% record. She got a good ride last time out, winning more comfortably than 1.5 lengths might suggest and there's probably plenty more to come from her, especially as the runner-up won a Listed race last week and the third placed horse who was 21 lengths back has made the frame again.

That's Nice would be my pick to win here ahead of Country Mile with Wingmen preferred to Palacio, but to be safe, I'll only leave Palacio out.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Ballymackie looks out of his depth here, but you could make a case for any/all of the other four starting with Springwell Bay who was a Class 2 winner and Grade 2 placer over hurdles and landed a Listed race at Chepstow in October on his chase debut. He didn't manage to see 3m1f out here at Cheltenham last time out, going off too hard, so the drop in trip might help. Money doesn't always guarantee success but connections bought Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euro after he won a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas and then reappeared 340 days later to win comfortably on chase/yard/UK debut at Carlisle 12 days ago and for me, he's the one to beat.

Deafening Silence won over hurdles at Class 3 and also at Grade 2 last winter before a 351 day break from racing. He returned to action at Haydock three weeks ago and ran creditably in defeat on his chase bow, but this looks a tougher challenge. Jango Baie makes a chase debut today after finishing on the first two home in all five starts over hurdles. A winner at Class 3 and then Grade 1, he was then the runner-up in a Listed race, a Grade 2 and a big-field Class 1 handicap. He has stacks of potential, but hasn't publicly tackled a fence and hasn't been seen for eight months.

That said, I think he makes more appeal than Deafening Silence, whilst Springwell Bay might pose the biggest challenge to Caldwell Potter.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Now we move from 4/5 runners to 15! My (in card order) shortlist starts with Valgrand who drops two classes for his handicap debut having won a Grade 2 race over course and distance in October and was a runner-up here over 2m5f last time out. The drop in trip will be appreciated. Willmount returns to action for the first time in almost a year since failing to justify favouritism in the Challow (Gr 1) at Newbury last December when pulled up three out. he makes a similar drop in class today and could well be involved if race ready, as he was 3 from 3 prior to that last run. To Chase A Dream has yet to finish outside the first two home in seven starts over hurdles, having been a runner-up in each of his first four and then winning his last three. Has had the benefit of two recent Class 3 handicap runs and should be in the mix again today, despite a 7lb penalty.

Tintintin won an 18-runner Class 3 handicap here over course and distance off just 4lbs lower back in April and followed that up with a good 3rd of 17 at Class 1 (Swinton) at Haydock in his season finale. He ran to a similar standard last time out, when 4th of 15 in the Class 1 Greatwood Handicap over course and distance four weeks ago too. Wreckless Eric completes the list off the back of a Class 3 handicap course and distance win four weeks ago. He fell when challenging 2 out at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance in October but his overall record reads 211F1, having gone down by less than a length on debut. He's up 8lbs here though and that might slow his progress.

All five are more than capable of making the frame, but my preference would be Valgrand and To Chase A Dream with Tintintin possibly the best of the rest.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...My initial thoughts were that this might be two-horse shootout between Chianti Classico and King Turgeon and it appears that the bookies agree.

Chianti Classico is 112141 over fences, all at 3m+ with a Class 1 win at Ascot last time out on seasonal reappearance. He's up 5lbs for that, but was comfortable in victory and should be the one to beat today. King Turgeon has made the frame in 6 of 13 over fences, winning four times, but it has taken a while for him to get the hang of things on a regular basis, but has finished 2U11 in his last four, winning both of this season's starts. He is up in class here, though.

Ballygrifincottage is one of those 'there or thereabouts' types who always get mentioned in running but don't go on to win. It's now more than two years since he last won, but has a second, a third and a fourth within his last five outings, although he was a faller here at the fourth fence last time out and will probably be behind the two horses above and also Java Point who ran really well to finish second of eleven here over 3m1½f four weeks ago. That was his first run for seven months so he's entitled to come on for that effort, but he is up in class here.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Shakem Up'arry was well beaten in the Topham last time out eight months ago and hasn't raced since, but did win twice over course and distance in his previous two runs, both in Class 1 handicaps, so he's down in class here and his yard is in great form with 11 placers (4 winners) from their last 13 runners. Shan Blue certainly isn't the Shan Blue of 2021/22 when a consistent Grade race competitor but does still tend to be in the mix if completing the race as a last seven form line reading 2PPP334 would testify. Not my idea of a winner here (winless in 12 races/4 years) but in with a shout of the places.

Numitor has won two of his last four Class 2 handicaps, including last time out at Wincanton on his return from a five-month break. He's only up 3lbs for his first visit to HQ and has every chance of going well again today, as does Copperhead who was only beaten a length and three quarters at Sandown five weeks ago having arrived there on the back of a hat-trick.

I think the above four are much of a muchness if truth be told and I suspect/hope they'll be battling for the minor place money behind bottom-weight Torn And Frayed who runs off the same mark as when a course and distance winner in a Grade 3 handicap here in January of 2002. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, of course, but has a comfortable winner at Warwick last time off 6lbs lower and a similar run should be enough.

It's Torn And Frayed for me here and of the other four, I'll think I'll take a bit of a punt on Shakem Up'arry's fitness and a return to form for Copperhead.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And a nice 16-runner Cross Country Chase to round things off!

Delta Work was the winner of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham festival in both 2022 and 2023 but bypassed it this year for a crack at the Grand National, where he was a gallant runner-up off just 2lbs lower than today. Stumptown comes here on a hat-trick and has won three times and finished third once in six starts this year. He ahs won over fences and also in the cross country at Punchestown and is probably my one to beat.

Latenightpass won this race last year off 4lbs lower, so is of obvious interest even if his recent results aren't as good as his connections would have hoped for. He was 12th in the Grand National, having gone well for long periods until headed at the last and will prefer this trip. Arizona Cardinal started the year with three straight wins, culminating in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April. He probably needed the run at Chepstow recently and has had a third wind op since that run two months ago, which is a bit of a worry.

Mister Coffey might be a strange one to conclude my shortlist, as he's still a 14-race maiden over fences. In fairness, though, we're looking for placers and he has made the frame in 8 of those 14 defeats and was a runner over this course and distance last time out, despite coming off a nine-month break. He always gives his best, as shown by a 1/1 record in bumpers and making the frame in 5 of 6 over hurdles.

With a 67% place strike rate from 21 career races, Mister Coffey is an ideal placepot pick behind Stumptown, whilst of the others, I might just take a chance on top weight Delta Work.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) That's Nice, (1) Country Mile & (3) Wingmen

Leg 2: (2) Caldwell Potter, (1) Springwell Bay & (5) Jango Baie

Leg 3: (1) Valgrand, (6) To Chase A Dream & (8) Tintintin

Leg 4: (1) Chianti Classico, (5) King Turgeon & (6) Java Point

Leg 5: (10) Torn And Frayed, (3) Shakem Up'arry & (9) Copperhead

Leg 6: (4) Stumptown, (12) Mister Coffey & (1) Delta Work

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Cheltenham
  • 2.52 Beverley
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Cheltenham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

To be honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the seven races above, mainly to a lack of experienced horses, so I've decided to focus on what looks a fairly open race with E/W possibilities at Jumps HQ. The race in question is the 2.40 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f (16 fences) on good/good to soft ground...

Our sole LTO winner is Scarface and he comes here seeking a hat-trick having won three of his last four. Elsewhere only Do Your Job and Our Jet made the frame, both finishing third in 8-runner contests. Most of the field have won at least one of their last six outings, but Il Ridoto and In Excelsis Deo have both lost seven on the bounce.

Seven of the twelve runners were in Class 1 action last out, but in-form Scarface steps up from Class 2, as does LTO placer Do Your Job, whilst Presentandcounting, Idalko Bihoue and Our Jet all move from Class 3, which makes life tough here, especially if you've been off the track for 200 days like Presentandcounting has!

He's not the only one who might be in need of a run, as Idalko Bihoue, Final Orders and Hang In There also return from breaks of 113, 151 and 171 days respectively. The rest of the field have raced at least once in 2024, although Our Jet hasn't been seen for twelve weeks and Sail Away has had a two-month rest. The other half of the field have all been in action in the last five weeks.

Sail Away and In Excelsis Deo are the only runners yet to win over this kind of trip and although Hang In There (2m½f hurdle) and Idalko Bihoue (2m4f chase) are both former Cheltenham winners, only Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed have scored over course and distance...

Instant Expert's overview of the field's chasing form over the last two years...

...suggests that Il Ridoto has failed to take the several chances offered to him at this class/track/trip, whilst Do Your Job would probably want more rain to fall. That said he's also 0/5 at Class 1, as is Torn And Frayed. Hang In There is interesting on going/trip, as is Scarface (a former Class 1 winner). The bookies will all pay at least four places on this race, so we should look at the place stats from the same races as above...

...which would seem to rule out the likes of Final Orders, In Excelsis Deo, Presentandcounting, Do Your Job and Torn And Frayed, suggesting that I focus on these seven runners all rated 5-8lbs higher than their last win...

...and I should probably remove Idalko Bihoue as the weakest of the seven, especially as he's been away for a while and is up two classes.

In the past, middle distance chases here at Cheltenham with medium-sized fields on good/good to soft ground have rewarded those brave enough to take the race on and set the tempo...

...with leaders claiming 32.65% of the wins and 20.42% of the places from just 12.23% of the runners, which looks like good news for Scarface, Gemirande and Our Jet from the six runners I'm still looking at...

...although I suspect that Idalko Bihoue might also want to get involved early doors.

Summary

Instant Expert helped me cut the field from twelve to six and whilst I personally think that Il Ridoto should be the horse to beat here, I fear that if he continues to race towards the back of the field, he'll struggle to make up ground although he did make the frame on three successive occasions over the winter by racing prominently/leading, so maybe his team will revert to those tactics. If that happens, then he'd be the one to beat and whilst his 11/2 ticket (as of 3pm Tuesday) is a fair price, it's essentially a punt on which tactics you think his team will employ.

Should he go on to win/place, then there are still three places (or more if you use SkyBet!) to aim for and with the market currently looking like this...

...the in-form Scarface looks a decent E/W option to Il Ridoto. Gemirande and Our Jet would be more speculative suggestions here, but I think both are better than those odds might suggest and both are capable of putting in a big run.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 6.15 Southwell

...and I suppose it would be rude of me to ignore the Festival completely this week, so why don't I cast my amateur eye (plenty of pro analysis elsewhere on Geegeez!) over the 3.30 Cheltenham? 12 runners are set to go to post for the Grade 1 PP Stayers Hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft/heavy ground with more rain expected...

Crambo, Noble Yeats, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo all won last time out, whilst Asterion Forlonge and Paisley Park were both runners-up. Paisley Park has actually been a runner-up in each of his last three and most recently here over course and distance in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle, half a length being Noble Yeats, but is now 6lbs better off. Flooring Porter (winner of this race is 2021 & 2022) and Janidil also made the frame last time around, whilst Buddy One is the only runner here who didn't complete his last race, being pulled up before the last in Leopardstown's Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle.

All horses will carry 11st 10lbs here, but the assessors have the field rated 10lbs from top to bottom with Teahupoo's OR of 162 the highest, 3lbs better than Sire du Berlais with Noble Yeats rated at 'just' 152.

We know that Flooring Porter won this race in 2021 and 2022, but we've four other course and distance winners in the race in the shape of last year's winner Sire du Berlais, Noble Yeats (from LTO), Buddy One and Paisley Park. Dashel Drasher (2m4½f hurdle) and Sir Gerhard (2m½f NHF & 2m5f hurdle) have also won on this track, whilst only Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Sir Gerhard are yet to win over a similar trip in UK/Ireland.

Instant Expert suggests that both Dashel Drasher and paisley park have struggled to win races at this class and/or trip over the last couple of years, but that most of the field have had some joy on soft or heavy ground...

...whilst it's 3 years since Janidil last tackled a hurdle when beaten by 11 lengths as 5th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett here in the 2020 Festival.

As you'd expect from such a high class field, the place stats from those races above don't help me towards a winner or an E/W bet...

...but they do lead me to write Home By The Lee off at this stage.

The place data for similar contests here at HQ say that the further forward a horse runs, the greater its chances of making the frame, but that most runners come from off the pace, having raced in mid-division...

...which based on the field's last couple of outings suggests that whilst Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter, Home By the Lee, Buddy One & Noble Yeats might well be ideally positioned to make the frame (4 places generally, 5 at SkyBet, of course!)

...they're probably susceptible to a late run for the win from one or more of Asterion Forlonge, Paisley Park, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo.

Summary

My personal shortlist for the race wasn't too far away from the names taken from the pace chart above and consisted of Asterion Forlonge, Crambo, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park, Sire du Berlais and Teahupoo. This meant that Asterion Forlonge, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park and Teahupoo featured on both lists.

So, whilst I'd love to able to prove why Sire du Berlais might still have something to offer, I can't justify it if we're only going off the data above (no room for sentiment, eh?)

Of the five left under consideration, Teahupoo is probably the best horse in the race, but 7/4 is no kind of money for me to be involved with. I do like Noble Yeats, based on his course and distance win here last time out, but he only narrowly defeated Paisley Park that day and the latter isn't carrying a penalty this time. Asterion Forlonge's only Grade 1 win came four years ago, but he does make the frame regularly at this level, whilst Flooring Porter knows exactly what's needed here.

In the end, Teahupoo probably wins this, but based on the 5.45pm market...

...I'd still be interested in Flooring Porter, Paisley Park and Asterion Forlonge as E/W possibles with Noble Yeats just a tad too short, unless he drifts. Don't forget, it's 5 places if you can get on with SkyBet!

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Newbury
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.39 Kelso
  • 4.29 Kelso
  • 4.45 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

There's a card full of Class 2 races at Jumps HQ and whilst there are more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, I'm going to see if I can highlight any potential E/W bets (Bookies are paying 4 & 5 places) in the 2.25 Cheltenham, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1f (+88yds) on good/good to soft ground...

If we start with what the card tells us, we see that Quick Draw and Whacker Clan both won last time out and that Twig comes here seeking a hat-trick. He, like bottom-weight Swapped, has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings, whilst top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has twelve consecutive top-three finishes including seven wins, whereas Mister Fogpatches is winless in eleven and Yes Indeed is an eight-race maiden.

Hidden Heroics has had wind surgery since he last ran some 162 days ago, whilst Wayfinder has been off for 229 days and has also undergone a wind op during that time. Lord Accord won this race last year and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but Kinondo Kwetu, Twig, Brief Times, Undersupervision, Wayfinder, Snapped and Hidden Heroics have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere with the latter named being the only other previous Cheltenham winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap novice chase over 3m2f last December, as included below in Instant Expert...

Top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has never been to HQ before, but ticks plenty of boxes otherwise in a promising-looking graphic with quite a bit of green championing the causes of Twig, Lord Accord, Hidden Heroics, Wayfinder and Swapped. The Wolf is the one who looks least suited by expected conditions and we know that Yes Indeed has failed to win all eight career starts, but the graphic below says he does have some place form at least...

...but he's still way down my list of possibles that continues to be headed by Kinindo Kwetu. He tends to bide his time in mid-division to come for a late run and if we look at how the entire field have approached their last few races, I suspect the early pace will come from the likes of Hidden Heroics, Whacker Clan and Swapped...

There's no out and out hold-up horse on that graphic, but deeper digging says that those two recent prominent runs from The Wolf are out of character and he usually races in the rear, so he and Mister Fogpatches will probably be the early back-markers over a course and distance that doesn't really have a huge course bias...

...as we've all watched numerous Cheltenham Festival 3m+ chases and seen winners from the front, middle and back. Cheltenham is a true test in my opinion and those best suited to conditions are the ones who tend to do best.

Summary

With the lack of a draw in NH racing and little pace bias to work from, we revert back to form and ability/suitability to the task and the ones ticking the boxes for me in that respect are Kinondo Kwetu, Twig and Quick Draw with honourable mentions for the likes of Swapped.

In a big field like this, I tend to either not get involved or just look for some E/W action and with all bookies paying at least four places (5 at PP/Sky!), there should be some scope for us here. To be honest, I'd be happy to back all four on an E/W basis if the price was right.

Quick Draw is borderline at 15/2, but Kinondo Kwetu and Twig are priced at 12's and 9's respectively and this pair have got great chances in my eyes.

Swapped is completely unfancied by the market and you can get 33/1 for 5 places and whilst this is a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, his form over fences (21112) is excellent and he receives weight all round. It'd be a bit of a shock if he won, but he could well take a top five position if things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/04/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Cheltenham
  • 4.30 Ripon
  • 4.35 Tramore
  • 5.05 Ripon

And it's back to Jumps HQ for another chase for this column, but this time the 4.25 Cheltenham is a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Mares/ handicap chase, taking in 13 fences over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Hawthorn Cottage was the only one of the six to taste victory last time out and she's two from five. Pink Legend has a win and a place from her last two, Doyannie has a win and two places from her last three, but Fortunes Melody and Lost Connections are winless in six and seven races respectively. The former, however, is a regular placer but the latter is a seven-race maiden, who now runs from 19lbs out of the handicap. Doyannie runs from 12lbs out of the handicap and I'd say that rules both of them out of this one.

Of the remaining four, none raced at this grade last time out, as Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage step up a level from Class 4, whilst Royale Margaux was fourth of nine at Class 2 and Pink Legend was a placer in a Grade 2, having previously won a Listed event. All bar Royale Margaux have won in the UK at this type of trip, whilst both Pink Legend and Hawthorn Cottage have already won here at Cheltenham (2m4½f chase and 2m1f bumper respectively).

All four have been seen inside the last five weeks and there's nothing new to report about them re: headgear or yard changes etc, but I can add that Instant Expert says that four of the field have a good ground UK chase win, but only one has won at Class 3...

...but that doesn't count Pink Legend's three Class 1 wins or the fact that both her and Fortunes melody have also won at Class 2. Royale Margaux is 0 from 3 here in the UK, but did win 7 of 13 in France including a Listed chase and hurdles wins at Listed & Grade 1!

That would suggest she's definitely got something about her, but it just hasn't quite worked out yet for her since leaving David Cottin's yard in France for Tom Symonds' Herefordshire base. Her pace profile (below) also raises the possibility that the yard haven't really decided on what tactics would work best for her either...

This indecisiveness, allied to the fact that front-runners have excelled in similar past races...

...could make this another frustrating afternoon for her and her team, as Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage look set to fight it out.

Summary

If we are to focus on those three pace-setters (Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage), this is probably Pink Legend's race to win/lose. Down two classes from a solid Grade 2 third place at last month's Festival, the drop in trip will help, as will the non-appearance of a couple of quality Irish mares.

I'm not a big fan of backing short-priced favourites and 6/4 looks a bit skinny, but she should be winning this relatively easily. As for the runner-up or forecast horses, I'd say that Fortunes Melody was better treated at the weights than Hawthorn Cottage, who'd probably want some rain to come anyway.

So, it's the 6/4 Pink Legend to beat the 5/1 Fortunes Melody for me, based on the stats above, but if Royale Margaux decides to go with the pace, she could do very well too.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 19/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 2.50 Beverley
  • 7.15 Gowran park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form

30-day form

Course 1-year form

Course 5-year form

and with the in-form Garry Moore, as featured on my 14-day form report from Trainer Stats, having a runner in the first of our 'free' races and that race being a Class 1 affair, it makes sense for me to look at the 1.30 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase (16 fences) over a left handed 2m4½f on good ground that will be softer in places...

FORM : Herbiers won last time out, Gemirande is two from four, Heltenhm has won three on the spin and Presentandcounting is three from four and 4 wins (+2 places) from his last six. Cilaos Emery, Captain Tom Cat and Deyrann de Carjac are winless in 7, 7 and 15 races respectively.

CLASS : Only five of these (Caribean Boy, Coole Cody, Gemirande, Presentandcounting & Deyrann de Carjac) ran at Class 1 last time out, as Cilaos Emery, Heltenham, Super Six, Captain Tom Cat & Zhiguli all raced at Class 2 with Herbiers & Unanswered Prayers now both stepping up two classes.

ANYTHING NEW? Cilaos Emery runs in a handicap for only the second time and wears a first-time tongue tie, whilst Caribean Boy runs for the first time since a wind op.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar top weight Cilaos Emery have won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Coole Cody and Unanswered Prayers are both former course and distance winners and Captain Tom Cat has won a 2m5½f hurdle here at HQ.

DAYS SINCE RUN : Presentandcounting last raced 194 days ago, whilst Caribean Boy and Deyrann de Carjac return from breaks of 81 and 108 days with the remainder of the field having run in the last 10 weeks. Captain Tom Cat's runner-up finish LTO was just nine days ago!

Elsewhere, Instant Expert tells me that Heltenham, Super Six and Zhiguli have yet to win a good ground chase and that only four of the field have landed a Class 1 pot over fences...

Others to note are Deyrann de Carjac's poor return at Class/Course.Distance and Caribean Boy's low success at Class 1. Plenty of these are racing off marks 10 to 18lbs lower than their last win, but that's a sign of poorly they have been running of late, although Presentandcounting is in great form over hurdles right now, but runs some 13lbs lower than his last chase win, suggesting he could go well if converting that form to the bigger obstacles. Conversely, form horse Heltenham is up 11lbs for his latest win, making him some 27lbs higher than before his three-race winning streak.

Heltenham and Presentandcounting couldn't approach their races any more differently than they do, though. The former is likely to leave a run for the line until fairly into procedings, whilst Presentandcounting loves to race from the front as does another in-form runner, Gemirande...

...and with the likes of Coole Cody, Unanswered Prayers, Cilaos Emery & Captain Tom Cat also showing a fondness for front running, there could be some fireworks early doors in a contest that has favoured those racing further forward than mid-division...

Summary

I think that Heltenham might well be the best horse in the race on a level playing field, but he'll find it tougher here up in class, up 11lbs and racing from the back of the field with a strong pace ahead of him. That doesn't mean he can't win, of course, but at odds of around 3/1, I'd be reluctant to chance my money.

However, two other form horses do like to race prominently and as such Gemirande might be a better value win bet at 6/1 after only missing out by a head in the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out, whilst if Presentandcounting can transfer some of his hurdles form to these larger obstacles, then his 16/1 ticket could be a decent E/W option, especially if you've got accounts with SkyBet and/or Unibet, as they're paying five places!

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/03/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 6.50 Dundalk
  • 7.50 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

And I think we'll head back to the Festival, where I can't promise another successful tricast/trifecta, but I'll do my best to unravel the 3.30 Cheltenham, an 11-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ stayers' hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft ground that will be better in places...

The obvious form horse here is Blazing Khal, who has won his last five and both Home By The Lee & Teahupoo come here seeking hat-tricks. Gold Tweet won the Cleeve hurdle on UK debut last time out and Henri le Farceur now makes his UK debut after landing a French Grade 2 hurdle on his last run. Yet despite eight top three finishes from his last eleven runs, Ashdale Bob hasn't won any of them.

None of these have raced in the last month with Klassical Dream and Henri le Farceur both coming off 100days+ layoffs. It's not a handicap, so they'll all carry 11st10lbs, but based on official ratings, that puts Teahupoo best off, a pound clear of Flooring Porter (seeking to win this for the third year in a row) and Klassical Dream.

Ashdale Bob, Dashel Drasher & Henri le Farceur are yet to win over a similar trip, but DD has at least won at Cheltenham before (2m4½f) and Klassical Dream has won here over 2m½f, but is three from four at 2m7½f/3m elsewhere. Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Gold Tweet, Paisley Park and Sire du Berlais have all won over course and distance with Gold Tweet's win in the Cleeve Hurdle ten weeks ago the most recent.

As for class and going, we have Instant Expert on hand...

I'm immediately going to say no to Ashdale Bob on form, going, class and distance, whilst Dashel Drasher is weak on class too, as is Home by the Lee (trip an issue too) and Sire du Berlais has poor soft ground form, hasn't the best Class 1 record and essentially just doesn't win often enough. He owes his yard/owner nothing, but I can't see him figuring here. All of which sounds a bit brutal, but I'm now just considering...

The pace profile for similar past races...

...says that those setting the pace are quite often a target for the others to aim at, as is often the case here at Cheltenham and based on the field's recent runs...

...you'd say Flooring Porter was at the most risk, but the caveat here is that he has made all to win this race in each of the last two years, so I wouldn't be ruling him or any of my five out on pace just yet, meaning we'll need a closer look at them...

BLAZING KHAL took five goes to get off the mark in bumpers, but is foru from four since, winning a couple of grade 2 races here in the process in 2021. Returned from 14 months off to win another gr2 at Navan last month, but this is his his toughest task yet, running at Gr1 for the first time.

FLOORING PORTER knows his way around this track/trip after tapes to post wins in this very race in each of the last two renewals. His preparations haven't gone as well this time around and the standard looks higher here, but he'll be in the mix.

GOLD TWEET ran well in france before coming to the UK for the C&D Cleeve Hurdle almost seven weeks where he relished trip and the soft ground. Still unexposed at the trip and should go well again, even if this is a stronger field.

PAISLEY PARK isn't the horse that won seven on the bounce from Oct '18 to Jan '20, including the 2019 version of this race, but is still a formidable opponent. Has been there or thereabouts again of late, but was almost 10 lengths behind Gold Tweet last time out and with that winner looking capable of more, that possibly rules this runner out.

TEAHUPOO has won a Gr1 and Gr2 in his last two outings, demonstrating his stamina at the trip and on heavy ground and for me, he's probably the one to beat, having beaten Honeysuckle by almsot three lengths in December despite conceding 7lbs.

Summary

You can make a case for all of the five I've still got left in at the moment , but with four places up for grabs, I'm leaving Paisley Park out, as at 11yo, he's just not quite up with the others from which I like Teahupoo the best. Teahupoo is the 10/3 jt fav with Blazing Khal right now with Flooring Porter and Gold Tweet best priced at 11/2 and 11/1 respectively, so I'd be hoping for Teahupoo to win and Gold Tweet would be my E/W option.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/03/23

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Tuesday is the day many of you have been waiting almost a year for, as it heralds the opening of this year's Cheltenham Festival, which my colleagues have covered at length elsewhere on the site.

For the purpose of my humble daily column, The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's heavily Cheltenham-weighted Shortlist...

...although Tom Creen and Trac look worth a second glance at Sedgefield, as does Devil's Angel at Newcastle.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

...and although I don't generally cover Festival races with them already being 'done' by my colleagues, it would seem remiss of me not to consider the chances of four runners from TS in the first of our free races, the 2.10 Cheltenham, which is a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ novice chase (13 fences) over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

The general feeling here is that this will be a 2-horse contest between El Fabiolo and Jonbon and I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case. I expect the bookies to have them both around the 6/4 mark, which means that we're not getting rich from singles or forecasts, but it does open up the possibility of an E/W bet.

I'm going to set the two prinicpals to one side for now and focus upon the other seven to see who might be worth looking at to make up the places for that E/W bet or for your tricast/trifecta selections, starting with their last runs which saw Ballybreeze and Effernock Fizz come home as winners, whilst Ha D'Or was a 2-length runner-up at Grade 3. And although Ballybreeze did win on chase debut last time out, it was 20 weeks ago and in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 100, so not only might he need the run, he's up three classes and Straw Fan Jack / Effernock Fizz are both up two.

Most of these have raced in the last five weeks or so, but Hollow Games has been off for 11 weeks and Straw Fan Jack for over 15 weeks, so like Ballybreeze, they might not be quite 'race-fit'. Every single runner in this field ahs won over a similar trip tot his one, yet only two of the seven past Cheltenham runners have actually won here; Saint Roi won a Grade 3 2m1f hurdle here at 2020's Festival, Straw Fan Jack won a Class 2 Novice chase over course and distance as recently as October and neither El Fabiolo nor Ha D'Or have visited HQ before.

We've also got the 'complication' of softer than usual ground for the start of the Festival and Instant Expert shows us who has done well/badly on soft ground as well as other useful stats...

Red marks against Ballybreeze, Ha D'Or and Effernock Fizz on soft ground and that latter pair have hardly excelled in Class 1 company, whilst Ha D'Or's record at the trip is also poor.

Pace always plays a big part here at Cheltenham and many runners either go off too quickly and get swallowed up later on or they hang too far off the pace and struggle to make up ground on that long energy-sapping incline before the finish. This is shown to some degree in the follow short distance chase stats from previous meetings...

...where hold-up horses have really taken the brunt of it. Ideally for an E/W runners we want an average pace score of around 2.00 to 3.00 and here's our field's last four runs...

And at this point, I'd have concerns about Dysart Dynamo and Ha D'Or on pace. Pace is also against Ballybreeze, as is the rise in class and his layoff since his last run, whilst Effernock Fizz also faces a rise in class and a poor pace profile. Straw Fan Jack also comes off a lay-off and is up in class, whilst Hollow Games may also need a run, meaning that only Saint Roi has avoided any negatives in the process so far.

He did unseat his rider last time out, but in his penultimate start he did land a Grade 1 contest. That was Hollow Games' last appearance and he was 22 lengths further back. All things considered, I'm having Saint Roi as 'best of the rest'

Summary

We fairly quickly got to Saint Roi being our outlier and at 9/1 with bet365, looks a useful third choice in the race. As for our two at the top of the market, there won't be much in it, but El Fabiolo is rated 3lbs better than Jonbon who in turn scored better on Instant Expert. As for pace, El Fabiolo edges here, as Jonbon might get sucked into an early battle and when the two met at Aintree last year Jonbon only prevailed by a neck, despite El Fabiolo being hampered and then making a mistake.

There won't be much in it, wouldn't a dead heat be exciting? But if push comes to shove, I'm going El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Saint Roi.