Tix Picks, Saturday 14/12/24

Saturday's racing comes from Cheltenham, Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newcastle, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

Things didn't exactly go to plan for me at Cheltenham on Friday, but my shortlists showed I was looking at the right horses, even if my final decision was a little off, so I'll head back to the good to soft ground at HQ undeterred for another crack starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Quantock Hills was second on debut at Wetherby two months ago but won next/last time out by seven lengths at Fontwell. This, however is a big step up in quality and more will be needed here. Moutarde also steps up in class after a 7 length success on his last run after finishing a distant 4th of 10 here at Cheltenham on his UK debut in a similar race to this one.

Total Look was a winner on the Flat over 1m2½f at Roscommon in May, before a runner-up finish over 1m4f at the same venue in mid-October. He then made a hurdles debut at Navan four weeks ago, where he travelled strongly and jumped well to win by half a length. His ground speed could hold the key. Small Fry is also quick across the ground having finished 121122 in six efforts on the Flat since mid-July. he has since tackled hurdles twice but after finishing a reasonable third at Fontwell was last home of 5 beaten by 28 lengths at Sandown earlier this month.

Ambiente Amigo gets weight all round here and won on hurdling debut at the end of October before finishing third of ten in a Listed race last time out. More than useful on the Flat too, she could be going places.

In a tricky race to call (8) Ambiente Amigo would be my first choice ahead of (3) Moutarde and (4) Total Look. Moutarde was actually 28/1 with Bet365 on Friday evening and that looks a very tempting E/W play.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Peaky Boy finished second and then first in two bumpers and is three from three over obstacles (2 x hrd & 1 x chs), all here at Cheltenham over 2m4½f. This trip will test him, but he always seems to have plenty in hand and the five-timer beckons. Transmission won his last hurdle race (over 3m1f) back in April and then was second here at Cheltenham over 3m½f on his chase debut October. He then stepped up a furlong this course and distance for his first win over fences four weeks ago and is only up 3lbs.

Haiti Couleurs won both of his last two over hurdles in the spring and would have own on chase debut at Chepstow in October but for a bad mistake at the last. He did, however, set the record straight with a 15 length success at Aintree five weeks ago and he's the one to beat here for me. Livin On Luco comes here off the back of a win at Newton Abbot when coming off a 207-day absence to make a debut over fences and a first handicap run.

I fancy (6) Haiti Couleurs to edge out (2) Peaky Boy here and I'll also take (9) Livin On Luco as the backup plan who might also be a nice E/W option at 25/1.

Leg 3 @ 1.13...Coco Mademoiselle was only beaten by a head on chase debut back in September, but ten lengths clear of Jesuitique back in fourth place who has since won a Class 2 handicap. Coco won her sole bumper prior to finishes of 212P12 over hurdles and this makes her my 'one to beat'. Autumn Return is two from three over fences so far but has had some fitness/injury issues this season. Was useful over hurdles, making the frame in 8 (4 wins) of 12 and if fit/ready could go well again here at a big price (22/1 E/W anyone?)

Realisation won over hurdles at Southwell this time last year but disappointed in two subsequent runs prior to a summer break, a wind op and a switch to fences that has seen her make the frame on both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a quarter first up and by a head last time out. Theonewedreamof was a winner over fences at Tipperary in July, but hasn't tackled a fence since and was well beaten on the Flat at Galway in August. Not one to write-off just yet, but I suspect she'll need the run here.

Bottom-weight Getbazoutofhere completes my shortlist and she seems to have come into her own over fences this year, finishing as runner-up at Exeter in April and winning at Hereford in may before a six month break. She then returned with another Hereford win and was a runner-up at Leicester 12 days ago and goes off the same mark here.

(2) Coco Mademoiselle is the one for me here and I think that (4) Autumn Return might defy the big odds, but I also can't ignore the form of (13) Getbazoutofhere, so they're my three for this one.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Ga Law won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in 2022 and was a runner-up in it four weeks ago for a third runner-up finish on the bounce (Gr2, C2 & C1) and was a course and distance winner here in a Class 1 handicap in late January. Le Patron was largely unimpressive on four starts over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences in the last 14 months finishing 1114P1 with a 3 from 3 record in handicap chases including defying a 260-day break to win at Newbury a fortnight ago and he could have more to give.

Fugitif likes it here at HQ, making the frame in 4 of 8 starts including 1 win which came in this very race last year. He's 1lb lower than that run now and ran well on his comeback run recently. Il Ridoto beat Ga Law to land the Gold Cup here last month and seemed to have plenty in hand and he was only a short head behind Fugitif in this race last year; went very close in this contest last year, so this trio are fairly evenly matched.

The last one I've got noted is Gemirande who comes here off the back of a good seven lengths success at Ascot three weeks ago. He ran so well for a horse not seen for seven months that the assessor has thumped him with an 8lb rise and this new mark of 136 might just be beyond him.

A(nother) tough one to call here, with all five more than capable, but I'm going to go with the closely matched trio of (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Six are set to run; I'll split the field in half and look at three runners...

(1) Master Chewy fell at Sandown a week ago and also fell here in a Grade 1 four starts ago, but has proven over the last fourteen months that when staying upright he always gives you a run for your money finishing 1221424, with a grade 2 win last Christmas in that line-up.

(2) Libberty Hunter might need the run after eight months off, but has finished 1123 in his four starts over the last twelve months, including a Class 3 win and a Class 1 runner-up here at Cheltenham

(5) Issar D'Airy probably has something to find on the two above, but was a good second of eight at Ascot in a Class 1 handicap in early November which shows that on his day he's very capable. he just needs more days like that!

I'll take all three to be sure!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...This race really ought to be all about Skyjack Hijack, who after finishing 7th of 11 on debut at Aintree just over a year ago has made the frame in all nine starts and has won each of his last six. He likes to set the tempo of the race, hurdles and a good change of pace and stays beyond 3m on heavy ground, so no stamina issues.

Of the challengers Clondaw General won an Irish PTP, was sold for £150k afterwards and then went on to win a 4-runner novice hurdle at Worcester in October. Has done nothing wrong so far, but this is much tougher. Jet Blue makes a UK debut after 14 races in France, winning four times up to 2m2f. Like many French imports, soft underfoot conditions don't pose a threat, but the trip might.

Western Knight has already proven to be better over hurdles than in bumpers, having won both efforts over obstacles so far, including getting home by a head over 2m6f in a Class 2 race last time out. he doesn't do things easily but is very game and will battle until the end.

(2) Skyjack Hijack has to be the pick here, but I'm also having (3) Western Knight and (5) Clondaw General in a belts and braces approach to the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (8) Ambiente Amigo, (3) Moutarde & (4) Total Look

Leg 2: (6) Haiti Couleurs, (2) Peaky Boy & (9) Livin On Luco

Leg 3: (2) Coco Mademoiselle, (4) Autumn Return & (13) Getbazoutofhere

Leg 4: (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto

Leg 5: (1) Master Chewy, (2) Libberty Hunter & (5) Issar D'Airy

Leg 6: (2) Skyjack Hijack, (3) Western Knight & (5) Clondaw General

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

I'm out of the house incredibly early on Saturday morning and therefore had to compile this late on Friday night, so fingers crossed for no withdrawals. 

Good Luck and have a great weekend,
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24