Tix Picks, Friday 13/12/24

Friday's racing comes from Bangor, Cheltenham, Cork, Doncaster, Dundalk & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a bumper £100,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

The card at Cheltenham looks a tricky one, but with at least £100k up for grabs, we have to at least have a try. The going is expected to be good to soft for the card which begins with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Country Mile won his sole bumper and on his hurdling debut before a solid third behind a 7/4 favourite in a Grade 2 contest last time out. A mistake at the last contributed to a three-length defeat, but he was 17 lengths clear of the next horse. This is a big drop in class. Palacio steps up in class after being somewhat of a surprise winner (20/1) at Chepstow in October, where he made all on soft ground. This looks a tougher assignment.

Wingmen makes a UK debut after winning two of three bumpers and his sole run over hurdles, all in Ireland. He does like to get on with things, so I expect him to provide early company for Palacio who might then feel the heat. That's Nice won a 3m PTP back in February and a 2m3f hurdle contest at Warwick three weeks ago, so comes here defending her 100% record. She got a good ride last time out, winning more comfortably than 1.5 lengths might suggest and there's probably plenty more to come from her, especially as the runner-up won a Listed race last week and the third placed horse who was 21 lengths back has made the frame again.

That's Nice would be my pick to win here ahead of Country Mile with Wingmen preferred to Palacio, but to be safe, I'll only leave Palacio out.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Ballymackie looks out of his depth here, but you could make a case for any/all of the other four starting with Springwell Bay who was a Class 2 winner and Grade 2 placer over hurdles and landed a Listed race at Chepstow in October on his chase debut. He didn't manage to see 3m1f out here at Cheltenham last time out, going off too hard, so the drop in trip might help. Money doesn't always guarantee success but connections bought Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euro after he won a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas and then reappeared 340 days later to win comfortably on chase/yard/UK debut at Carlisle 12 days ago and for me, he's the one to beat.

Deafening Silence won over hurdles at Class 3 and also at Grade 2 last winter before a 351 day break from racing. He returned to action at Haydock three weeks ago and ran creditably in defeat on his chase bow, but this looks a tougher challenge. Jango Baie makes a chase debut today after finishing on the first two home in all five starts over hurdles. A winner at Class 3 and then Grade 1, he was then the runner-up in a Listed race, a Grade 2 and a big-field Class 1 handicap. He has stacks of potential, but hasn't publicly tackled a fence and hasn't been seen for eight months.

That said, I think he makes more appeal than Deafening Silence, whilst Springwell Bay might pose the biggest challenge to Caldwell Potter.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Now we move from 4/5 runners to 15! My (in card order) shortlist starts with Valgrand who drops two classes for his handicap debut having won a Grade 2 race over course and distance in October and was a runner-up here over 2m5f last time out. The drop in trip will be appreciated. Willmount returns to action for the first time in almost a year since failing to justify favouritism in the Challow (Gr 1) at Newbury last December when pulled up three out. he makes a similar drop in class today and could well be involved if race ready, as he was 3 from 3 prior to that last run. To Chase A Dream has yet to finish outside the first two home in seven starts over hurdles, having been a runner-up in each of his first four and then winning his last three. Has had the benefit of two recent Class 3 handicap runs and should be in the mix again today, despite a 7lb penalty.

Tintintin won an 18-runner Class 3 handicap here over course and distance off just 4lbs lower back in April and followed that up with a good 3rd of 17 at Class 1 (Swinton) at Haydock in his season finale. He ran to a similar standard last time out, when 4th of 15 in the Class 1 Greatwood Handicap over course and distance four weeks ago too. Wreckless Eric completes the list off the back of a Class 3 handicap course and distance win four weeks ago. He fell when challenging 2 out at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance in October but his overall record reads 211F1, having gone down by less than a length on debut. He's up 8lbs here though and that might slow his progress.

All five are more than capable of making the frame, but my preference would be Valgrand and To Chase A Dream with Tintintin possibly the best of the rest.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...My initial thoughts were that this might be two-horse shootout between Chianti Classico and King Turgeon and it appears that the bookies agree.

Chianti Classico is 112141 over fences, all at 3m+ with a Class 1 win at Ascot last time out on seasonal reappearance. He's up 5lbs for that, but was comfortable in victory and should be the one to beat today. King Turgeon has made the frame in 6 of 13 over fences, winning four times, but it has taken a while for him to get the hang of things on a regular basis, but has finished 2U11 in his last four, winning both of this season's starts. He is up in class here, though.

Ballygrifincottage is one of those 'there or thereabouts' types who always get mentioned in running but don't go on to win. It's now more than two years since he last won, but has a second, a third and a fourth within his last five outings, although he was a faller here at the fourth fence last time out and will probably be behind the two horses above and also Java Point who ran really well to finish second of eleven here over 3m1½f four weeks ago. That was his first run for seven months so he's entitled to come on for that effort, but he is up in class here.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Shakem Up'arry was well beaten in the Topham last time out eight months ago and hasn't raced since, but did win twice over course and distance in his previous two runs, both in Class 1 handicaps, so he's down in class here and his yard is in great form with 11 placers (4 winners) from their last 13 runners. Shan Blue certainly isn't the Shan Blue of 2021/22 when a consistent Grade race competitor but does still tend to be in the mix if completing the race as a last seven form line reading 2PPP334 would testify. Not my idea of a winner here (winless in 12 races/4 years) but in with a shout of the places.

Numitor has won two of his last four Class 2 handicaps, including last time out at Wincanton on his return from a five-month break. He's only up 3lbs for his first visit to HQ and has every chance of going well again today, as does Copperhead who was only beaten a length and three quarters at Sandown five weeks ago having arrived there on the back of a hat-trick.

I think the above four are much of a muchness if truth be told and I suspect/hope they'll be battling for the minor place money behind bottom-weight Torn And Frayed who runs off the same mark as when a course and distance winner in a Grade 3 handicap here in January of 2002. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, of course, but has a comfortable winner at Warwick last time off 6lbs lower and a similar run should be enough.

It's Torn And Frayed for me here and of the other four, I'll think I'll take a bit of a punt on Shakem Up'arry's fitness and a return to form for Copperhead.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And a nice 16-runner Cross Country Chase to round things off!

Delta Work was the winner of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham festival in both 2022 and 2023 but bypassed it this year for a crack at the Grand National, where he was a gallant runner-up off just 2lbs lower than today. Stumptown comes here on a hat-trick and has won three times and finished third once in six starts this year. He ahs won over fences and also in the cross country at Punchestown and is probably my one to beat.

Latenightpass won this race last year off 4lbs lower, so is of obvious interest even if his recent results aren't as good as his connections would have hoped for. He was 12th in the Grand National, having gone well for long periods until headed at the last and will prefer this trip. Arizona Cardinal started the year with three straight wins, culminating in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April. He probably needed the run at Chepstow recently and has had a third wind op since that run two months ago, which is a bit of a worry.

Mister Coffey might be a strange one to conclude my shortlist, as he's still a 14-race maiden over fences. In fairness, though, we're looking for placers and he has made the frame in 8 of those 14 defeats and was a runner over this course and distance last time out, despite coming off a nine-month break. He always gives his best, as shown by a 1/1 record in bumpers and making the frame in 5 of 6 over hurdles.

With a 67% place strike rate from 21 career races, Mister Coffey is an ideal placepot pick behind Stumptown, whilst of the others, I might just take a chance on top weight Delta Work.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) That's Nice, (1) Country Mile & (3) Wingmen

Leg 2: (2) Caldwell Potter, (1) Springwell Bay & (5) Jango Baie

Leg 3: (1) Valgrand, (6) To Chase A Dream & (8) Tintintin

Leg 4: (1) Chianti Classico, (5) King Turgeon & (6) Java Point

Leg 5: (10) Torn And Frayed, (3) Shakem Up'arry & (9) Copperhead

Leg 6: (4) Stumptown, (12) Mister Coffey & (1) Delta Work

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24