So, that’s Cheltenham over come the weekend, but this Saturday there is still plenty of racing action as the ITV cameras head to Uttoxeterfor the Midlands National, plus they are also at Kempton for a jumps fixture.
As always, we’ve got all the trends and stats for all the LIVE ITV races – we hope they help pin-point a few winners.
Only 3 past runnings
Dan Skelton (twice) and Peter Bowen have won the race before
1 winning favourite
Dan Skelton has won the last two runnings
All winners carried between 11-2 and 11-10
All winners aged between 7-9 years-old
All winners priced 8/1 or shorter
Trainer James Owen has a 29% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 29% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Jack Tudor is just 2 from 56 over hurdles at the track
Only 3 previous runnings
Red Risk won the race last season
Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Kim Bailey have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
Two of the 3 winners carried between 10-6 and 10-11
Two of the 3 winners aged 6-7
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 21% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 27% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Emma Lavelle is just 1-34 (3%) with her hurdlers at the track
Jockey Jack Tudor is just 2 from 56 over hurdles at the track
3:00 – Jenningsbet Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV4
20/22– Aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Carried 10-12 or less
18/22 – Won by an Irish bred horse
17/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
14/22 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
14/22 – Carried 10-10 or less
12/22 – Officially rated 135 or less
13/22 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
12/22 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by David Pipe
3/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 of the last 15 winners aged 8 or 9
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 11/1
5 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
19/22 – Aged 8 or younger
18/22 – Carried 10-9 or more
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or less
14/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/22 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/22 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
13/22 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
13/22 – Placed last time out
12/22 – Aged 7 years-old
10/22 – Unplaced favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Harry Fry (4 of last 11 runnings)
3/22 – Winning favourites
3 previous runnings
Trainers Harry Derham, Nicky Henderson and L J Morgan have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
All winners carried between 11-6 and 11-8
All winners 5/1 or shorter
All winners aged between 6-8
Jockey Tom Bellamy is 7-32 (22%) riding over fences at the track
2:40 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m5f ITV4
2 past runnings
Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson have won the race before
Both winners aged 6-7
Both winners carried 11-2 to 11-4
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Martin Keighley has a 40% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary/Josh Moore are just 1 from 28 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Tom Bellamy is just 1-36 riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell is 2-3 (67%) riding over hurdles at the track
5 previous runnings
Teddy Blue won on this card 12 months ago
4 of the last 5 winners aged 7 (1) or 8 (3)
All 5 winners carried between 11-1 and 11-6
Paul Nicholls has trained 2 of the last 3 winners
Harry Cobden has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
3 of the last 5 winners aged 8
The last 3 favourites have won
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 22% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-12 12:30:042026-03-13 10:06:29Sat TV Trends: 14th March 2026
Friends of mine who go racing once or twice a year often ring me up beforehand asking for some ‘tips’, writes Dave Renham.
My initial reply is always the same, “what exactly do you mean by tips?”
And their answer is invariably the same, “winners Dave, I want to back as many winners as possible!”
“Ah!”, I reply, “then that’s a simple one – just back all the favourites”.
After my opening gambit I go on to explain the rationale behind such an apparently facetious answer: that in order to give them the best chance of backing as many winners as possible on the day, backing favourites is the way forward.
Of course, for serious punters the question would be different, as making money over the longer term is about finding value, not winners. If it was as simple as backing winners, we would all be backing the favourite and making lots of money. Favourites are like any other market position in that they can offer value, but of course that does not apply to all market leaders.
All-Weather Favourites Overall
In this article my quest is to find the groups of favourites that have offered value in the past, or those that have offered poor value. Poor value favourites give us two options essentially; we can lay them on the exchanges, or we can look for a viable option from the remaining runners.
The data for this article relates to UK AW Racing from 2018 to 2025 inclusive. Profits have been calculated to Befair Starting Price (BSP) with returns adjusted for 2% commission. I am using Betfair Exchange favourites (clear favourites only) for this so let me start by showing the results for all such AW market leaders in the eight-year study period:
Losses are quite modest at just under 3 pence in the £, so there looks to be hope when it comes to finding a positive favourite angle or two. In terms of the betting returns on favourites, here are the annual splits:
Last year actually would have turned a profit, but 2020, 2022 and 2023 all saw steeper losses of over 5p in £.
All-Weather Favourites by Race type
What about different race types? Firstly, let me share the handicap versus non-handicap figures for favs:
As we can see there have been slightly smaller losses in non-handicaps. Having said that non-handicap maiden favourites lost more than 5% due to 549 winners from 1267 (SR 43.3%) for a loss of £64.28 (ROI -5.1%). In fact, this is where my first two negative angles come in, namely 2yo only maidens and Class 2-4 maidens:
Once losses hit the 10%+ mark, I see that as a strong negative as far as favourites are concerned. Both these subsets siginificantly beyond that threshold; and, while on the 2yo maidens’ theme, 2yos making their career debuts that start favourite in all-weather maidens have done very poorly thanks to just 38 wins from 126 runners (SR 30.2%) for a loss of £34.66 (ROI -27.5%).
On a more positive note for 2yos, favourites in nursery handicaps have edged into overall profit thanks to 297 wins from 918 (SR 32.3%, +£28.44, ROI +3.2%). This could have been improved upon if we limit qualifiers to horses that had run at least once on the AW before. This cohort won 33.3% of time (232 wins from 697) for a profit of £51.04 (ROI +7.3%). We will of course have to wait for the summer to potentially exploit this in 2026.
One other race type to quickly mention is claiming races. Favourites have secured returns of over 11% in these races, but unfortunately such races on the sand are extremely rare these days. Last year (2025) for example saw just two such races. Hence, unless there is a change in policy it seems unlikely that we are going to get many claiming races to go at.
All-Weather Favourites by Course
Have favourites performed any better at some courses compared to others? Let’s see:
The Southwell stats are based on tapeta races, so only since the change of surface; it seemed to make no sense to combine the fibresand results with them as they are no longer relevant. Southwell’s stats are the worst for favourites with losses edging close to 6p in the £. Wolverhampton has been the happiest hunting ground for jollies closely followed by Kempton.
In terms of Wolverhampton favourites, a group that have performed well are those runners who won last time out on the AW but at a different track (e.g. at any of the other five UK AW tracks). This group recorded a £69.44 profit (ROI +12%) thanks to 239 winners from 581 (SR 28.9%).
All-Weather Favourites by Time of Year
I would like to talk about ‘time of year’ now and below are the win strike rates by quarter:
Favourites have had the best strike rate in the first three months of the year, and the remaining metrics correlate with that time being the best for favs:
As we can see, January to March favourites would have lost us less than a penny in the £ across over 7000 selections. I am assuming this has been the case because at that time of year 91% of all favourites had raced on the AW last time out, whereas from July to December for example this figure has been less than 60%. Hence, by the start of the first quarter (January) the focus is solely the AW with it being nearly two months into the AW season, and horses are starting to run regularly on an artificial surface rather than potentially switching back and forth from the turf. That would also explain the poorer returns in the final quarter. That is simply a hypothesis but there is a definite logic behind it.
Sticking with that first quarter, we have already seen that Wolverhampton market leaders have returned the smallest losses. If we restrict Wolves favourites to January, February and March only we see the following – 586 winners from 1604 runners (SR 36.5%) for a profit of £96.53 (ROI +6%).
All-Weather Favourites by Class of Race
A look at Race Class now. The splits are shown below:
The highest two classes of race have proved profitable, but what is more interesting perhaps has been the very poor performance of favourites in Class 3 races. The losses have been significant at over 13p in the £. Most Class 3 events were handicaps, and handicaps actually produced losses close 15p in the £.
My initial theory for why favourites performed poorly in this class was that is may just be down to variance, but I back checked the 2010 to 2017 Class 3 results and noted that they produced similar overall losses (11p in the £). I cannot come up with a logical reason why favourites have struggled in these particular races, but the long-term stats suggest that this has been the case.
All-Weather Favourites by Days since last run
Moving on to how long it has been since the horse last ran, and there have been a couple of timeframes that have proved profitable over the past eight years:
Hence favourites having a very recent run, or one coming back off a break of 5 months or more have performed above the norm.
All-Weather Favourites by Headgear
Personally I am a little sceptical when it comes to fancied runners wearing headgear and favourites have had a poor record wearing blinkers over this period. They scored 27.2% of the time (382 wins from 1405) for losses of £168.40 (ROI -12%). This performance was worse if we focus on handicaps only – 305 wins from 1203 runners for a loss of £164.90 (ROI -13.7%).
All-Weather Favourites by Draw
I wondered how well favourites fared from the poorest draws, although I knew that data for specific course and distance combinations was going to be limited. What I wanted to know is how favourites fared when berthed in one of the three widest draws at Kempton over 6f, Wolves over 5f and Chelmsford over 5f. I currently perceive these three track/trip combos to offer the strongest AW biases - and, from a positive perspective, to inside draws, I should add. I looked at handicaps only as they offer the most robust results as far as draw data is concerned.
We're dealing with small samples here as I had anticipated, but all three confirm that favourites really struggled.
One other draw bias which I looked at was Kempton over 7f, but my reading of that bias is that horses need to be drawn very wide (in double figure stalls) to be really disadvantaged there. Hence, I looked at the performance of favourites from the three widest draws over 7f at Kempton with the caveat that the draw must be a double figure one. With such restrictions there were only 30 horses that were favourite under those circumstances, but they did struggle with only 5 winning and losses were steep at 46p in the £.
All-Weather Favourites by Trainer
Finally I wanted to see which trainers have done well with favourites and which ones have not. Firstly, let me share a chart of the trainers whose A/E index (based on BSP) is 1.15 or higher. This type of figure suggests their favourites have been very good value. To qualify, a trainer must have had at least 75 horses that started as favourite.
It is nice to see some different trainers appearing and indeed it makes sense that less familiar names would show up when looking in such an obvious place as market leaders. Jim Goldie tops the chart with an outstanding 1.50 A/E index and all seven on the chart have unsurprisingly been blindly profitable as the table below shows:
Not all trainers have done well when saddling the market leader, though. The table below shows the handlers that had recorded losses of more than 25p in the £ (again 75 runs minimum to qualify).
The most interesting name in the list for me is Charlie Johnston; his father Mark had a very good record with favourites at the start of this time frame. From 2018 to when he retired at the end of 2022 his record with favourites read an impressive 144 winners from 331 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £54.25 (ROI +16.4%), A/E(BSP) 1.13. There has been a clear change in success for favourites since Charlie took over, perhaps as a result of a different focus or training modus operandi.
Conclusion
This article has highlighted plenty of positives and negatives. I have put the main ones in the table below as a type of ‘ready reckoner’. I have excluded the trainers as their tables are nearby and easy to access.
I hope this article will prove useful over the rest of the AW season as well as the remainder of 2026 as a whole. Obviously, we cannot always tell who is going to be favourite, especially in very competitive races. However, if we are able to back as close to the off as possible then we should know the favourite pre-race around 95% of the time.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/hammergun2.jpg389830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2026-01-13 15:44:062026-01-13 15:44:06A Look at Favourites in All-Weather Races
Amid all the thrilling performances over the Christmas period so far, I cannot shake from my consciousness Ben Pauling’s Mambonumberfive, writes Tony Stafford. I must confess I hated the song of that name when it was popular – maybe I’ll be a bit more charitable after Kempton on Saturday.
Using times as a guide to merit in jump racing is never foolproof, but when successive races on the same card, distance and discipline are concerned, you have a chance of getting a reasonable line to the form.
On Saturday at Kempton – shamefully destined soon to be another housing estate it seems – both Ben Pauling’s Mambonumberfive in the Wayward Lad Novices Chase and Dan Skelton’s Thistle Ask, top-weight in the Desert Orchid Handicap Chase, both Grade 2 events, immediately afterwards were easy winners. The time of the former at 4.47 seconds faster than the standard for the two miles at Kempton, was 0.42 seconds better than Thistle Art’s demolition job in the handicap.
Dan Skelton is considering the Queen Mother Champion Chase for his eight-year-old, winner of five of six chases, the last four all by at least a margin of seven lengths since Skelton took him over from the retired James Ewart this season. He won off 115 first time for Dan and was already up to 146 on Saturday, with a hike guaranteed well into the 150’s when the new ratings come out tomorrow.
This was a race where the pace was unrelenting – three horses goading each other at the front until Harry Skelton pushed the button and sent Thistle Ask away from the rest of the seven-horse field. He seemed to be quickening throughout the race, gathering pace once more as they approached the first of three fences in the straight.
Thistle Ask will be a nine-year-old if he lines up for the Champion Chase, but you need to have an attacking mindset if you want to see off Willie Mullins.
Despite all this, Ben Pauling, a day on from the emotion of The Jukebox Man, Harry Redknapp and all that, unearthed a chaser I contend of equal potential to his stable star.
When Mambonumberfive went through the Arqana sale ring last year for €450k, the obvious question about the three-year-old’s qualification for such a lofty price was, “how?”
He had been unable to win in three tries in juvenile hurdles at Auteuil for French jumps training ace Francois Nicolle with the final effort in June 2024, a month before his sale, being a second to Double-Green homebred Raffles Dolce Vita.
That horse has failed to win again in seven tries, latterly when switched to Ireland. His latest effort was a fourth of six to Gordon Elliott’s Romeo Coolio, beaten 31 lengths, at Fairyhouse late last month. His chance was mirrored by the starting price, 125/1!
While his stock plummeted, Mambonumberfive has flourished under Pauling, initially in three tries over hurdles, winning the second, a Grade 2 novice at Kempton, then switching as a four-year-old to chasing this autumn.
A horse of impressive size and scope, he immediately took to this new role, winning with a sustained finishing effort at Aintree and trumping that with a comfortable two-length defeat of Mighty Bandit at Newbury.
From novice handicaps, Ben switched him to this weight-for-age Grade 2 race against his elders. Five runners here and for most of the two miles Ben Jones allowed him to sit at the back, with a couple of slight errors confirming that position.
Then, as they turned for home, you could see him making quick progress, and by the second last he had got to the front. From the final fence he was travelling so well that he had put seven lengths between himself and runner-up Hansard, a solid performer for Gary and Josh Moore. From last place four from home to seven lengths clear and careering away at the line. All as a four-year-old, although he will be five on Thursday!
You’d have to give him a chance in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham as he clearly handles going left-handed as well as Saturday’s romp the other way round, but it might be less certain that Cheltenham would suit him as well as Aintree with the long straight there to get him organised for that charge to the line.
The amazing elements for me about Saturday were less that he was quicker than a possible Queen Mother contender having loitered at the back of his field for so long, against the sustained gallop of Thistle Ask’s race, but that he could manage it with so little previous experience of chasing behind him.
If his enormous talent was evident, his stablemate The Jukebox Man exhibited the one attribute that apart from natural ability is most elusive in racehorses, courage and determination not to be beaten.
I well remember how in 2009 when Punjabi won his Champion Hurdle for Raymond Tooth and Nicky Henderson, he was in the middle of a three-horse thrust up the Cheltenham hill between Celestial Halo and Binocular, grittily holding on to the narrow lead he and Barry Geraghty had taken at the final flight.
Here, though, The Jukebox Man did even better as he was overtaken by last year’s King George VI Chase winner Banbridge at that point in the race. It seemed inevitable that he would succumb to that Joseph O’Brien horse’s speed from the last and that of the joint favourites, Willie Mullins’ Gaelic Warrior and Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie who were also bang there; but he would have none of it.
As four horses strained for the line, suddenly in the dying strides, The Jukebox Man, in the middle under Ben Jones, had his head down at the crucial time, winning by noses from Banbridge and Gaelic Warrior with Jango Baie half a length away. It was a race that racing needed and if you listened to the ITV commentators, a win in the Harry Redknapp colours that was “great for racing”.
It was great for Harry Redknapp and the two Bens certainly, but here was a man in his late 70s, however well known to the public, winning a race. Would his win inspire young racegoers to take more of an interest in the sport? That seems fanciful. Big days, be they at Kempton and Chepstow, where we got a great home win for the Rebecca Curtis/Sean Bowen horse Haiti Couleurs in the Coral Welsh Grand National, inevitably engender great enthusiasm for the young people that attend.
I remember last autumn suggesting that Champions Day at Ascot had many more younger attendees than I’d ever recalled at any meeting, something Grand National winning rider Graham Thorner also noticed that day. Getting them to come back for say, an all-weather card at Kempton, is another matter. I wonder who would get their many all-weather fixtures if the sale did go through.
Kempton was one of the many tracks near London, including Newmarket, my dad took me to from about the age of eight. I’d become much more interested in racing by 1961 at age 15. I recall one Easter we watched the Kempton Guineas trials from the stand at the top of the straight, where they now keep the course equipment.
The horse he’d backed in the 1000 Trial was in front passing us and I was shocked when it didn’t make the frame. That was three from home, though, and a long way out for a mile race! Even so, I thought I knew a bit more about the game than he did – not that ever in my life I’ve matched his facility for successful punting for small stakes.
One day in my teens, I had brought a girl friend to the flat in the afternoon with both my parents out at work, expecting a clear couple of hours. We were in the early throes of getting involved when I heard the front door opening. With a face like thunder, he took one look at the slight clothing disarray, went into his bedroom and within minutes had gone out again.
When mum arrived from work, she told me he went to Kempton, no doubt on the Fallowfield & Britten coach from Clapton Pond <Prince Monolulu, the famed so-called tipster who peed on my shoe at the halfway stop on the way to Newmarket one time, would always be on board>. When he came home, the girlfriend long gone, again I was greeted with a frosty silence as my mum looked on sympathetically.
The following night he went to Hackney dogs, his regular venue while I continued my apprenticeship in punting by going off with my mates to my favoured Thursday night track, Clapton. Slightly closer to home I always got back before him, and the difference in mood was soon evident.
He said, “I went to Kempton last night and had the Tote Treble <a regular bet in the second, fourth and sixth races of ten shillings, 50p in those days>. It Paid £98.18 shillings. Then tonight I had the Trifecta <first three home> at the dogs. It paid £123,15s,3d. <12 pence to the shilling>” He was always a lucky punter and couldn’t wait to tell me, whatever his feelings otherwise.
I never found out what happened to his last bet – he dropped dead in the William Hill betting shop (now closed) at Hackney Wick, 100 yards from his house and the ticket was never found. He was 82 and left me the heritage of Arsenal, cricket at the Oval and racing. What more did an eight-year-old need to set him up for life?
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Banbridge_KingGeorgeVChase_Kempton2024.jpg318830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-12-29 08:24:042025-12-29 08:24:04Monday Musings: On Legacies…
Andrew Balding’s Five Ways proved his promise with a tough success in the Unibet Sirenia Stakes at Kempton.
The Kameko colt has been shaping up well as the season has progressed and got off the mark by a decent margin last time out to earn a step up to Group Three level.
Under Jason Watson and at a price of 4-1, he proved the water was not too deep, prevailing by a nose over the six-furlong trip.
Balding said: “He has always been good in his homework, and we thought it was worth a go. He was bred by John Hobby, who has been a good friend of my parents for many years, and he has had horses at Kingsclere for a lot of years, so it is fantastic for him. He is by Kameko as well, so it is good for the whole team.
“We were disappointed with him the first time out (fourth), but we felt the ground was a bit loose that day and he got wheel spinning a bit, and he probably needed the run, but it was more like it at Salisbury last time out.
“He will stay further in time. We will see if we go again this year, but he is a lovely horse for the future. He has always shown a high level of ability.
“Today was the plan. The Mill Reef would have come too soon for him so we will see how we go.”
Highclere Thoroughbred Racing’s Drama did them proud again when regsitering back-to-back victories in the Unibet London Sprint Series Final.
Twelve months after taking the £80,000 contest under Tom Marquand, the gelding did so again under Oisin Murphy with a 3-1 success for trainer James Ferguson.
Harry Herbert, racing manager of Highclere, said: “He loves this track. He is just an extraordinary horse.
“It is horses for courses and it is Drama for Kempton Park as that is his deal. To win this race two years running is absolutely fantastic.
“Well done to James Ferguson, and all his team, and the birthday boy Oisin, and a wonderful group of Highclere owners who have had such fun with him.
“We had to go through the pain barrier of some turf races that don’t suit, but this race had a big red circle around it.
“I really take my hat off to James. To produce him to do what he did last year from much higher in the weights today was wonderful. It is a big pay day for the syndicate, so happy days.”
Sky Safari showed a commendable attitude to maintain her unbeaten record on the all-weather when winning the Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap.
James Fanshawe’s 5-2 favourite was ridden by Murphy to a neck victory as one of four wins across the card for the rider as he celebrated his 30th birthday.
Tom Fanshawe, assistant to his father, said: “She is now four out of four on the all-weather and she showed a really good attitude out there today. It has been a really good family to our stable and her half-brother won earlier in the week.
“I think we all thought Ed’s (Dunlop) horse (Superposition) had slipped the field. She had to be brave to battle back in a strongly run race against battle hardened horses.
“She settled pretty well today as her family are quite forward going and Oisin felt she wasn’t over racing.
“If she continued to settle as well as she did today then she could get a mile and a quarter, but I imagine we will keep her at a mile for now.
“Oisin was very complimentary about her. He said there is a good deal of improvement left in her. Where her ceiling is I don’t know.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2.81305400-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-09-06 16:57:092025-09-06 16:57:09Five Ways shades Sirenia Stakes success for Andrew Balding
Kalpana is not certain to run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after suffering a surprise defeat at the hands of Giavellotto in the Unibet September Stakes at Kempton.
Andrew Balding’s charge had been vying for favouritism in next month’s ParisLongchamp feature after a campaign that had seen her place in three Group One contests, including when beaten just a length by Calandagan in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on her latest start.
Kalpana was dropped to Group Three company on the Kempton all-weather in search of a confidence-boosting victory and while the 1-2 favourite appeared to be travelling well coming into the final couple of furlongs, Giavellotto ultimately found plenty for pressure and came home a length-and-a-half winner.
Paddy Power pushed Kalpana out to 12-1 from 6-1 favourite for the Arc and while Balding expects the Juddmonte-owned filly to improve for the outing, a return to Ascot for Champions Day has now entered the equation.
Turned AWAY 💪
Giavellotto sees off the challenge from Kalpana to land the September Stakes @kemptonparkrace.
The odds-on fav had every chance but just couldn't get by.
Balding said: “It is disappointing not to win, but I think the horse that beat us is very good. As you can, hear she is having a proper blow and hopefully that will put her spot on for whatever we are doing.
“She had a couple of weeks easy, and she will come on for that. I felt like we had done enough work, but the trouble is we are not using grass gallops at the moment. The all-weather is much easier and it is harder to get work into horses like her.
“We didn’t want it to be a falsely-run race, and it wasn’t. They went a nice even pace, and she had every chance, but a good horse has beaten her, and she will come on for the run.
“She is in the Arc and the Fillies & Mares at Ascot, but it is really where the powers that be want to go.
“This was a prep, and that (Arc) was always the plan, but we will have to see how the field develops.”
Giavellotto (9-4) was having his first start since finishing third in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June and just his second run of the year having contest the Sheema Classic at Meydan back in April.
His trainer Marco Botti said: “We didn’t run in the Princess of Wales’s at Newmarket as sadly his scope wasn’t right a few days beforehand. With these kind of horses, you don’t want to risk anything.
“He is still lightly-raced for an older horse and there is definitely still more mileage on the clock.
“Watching it I thought it was a bit different to how it was going to happen. I thought Kalpana would have raced in front of us.
“The plan was to follow her and see if we were good enough to beat her. Oisin thought the pace was even and not very strong, so he sat second.
“He idled a little bit in front. He just does enough. He is not a horse that would just quicken away.
“Oisin said when they turned into the straight and he was winding him up and going through the gears that he responded really well.
“He said every time the filly got to him, he found an extra gear. It was a great performance. We always knew he was a good horse. He just needs things to go right for him. I’m delighted with that.”
Giavellotto was a surprise victor over Kalpana at Kempton (Mike Egerton/PA)
Giavellotto was cut to 33-1 from 66s for the Arc by Paddy Power but Botti fears the French ground will not suit and has a defence of his Hong Kong Vase title at Sha Tin in December as his top priority.
He added: “Sadly in Europe there wouldn’t be many options for him now. We have said soft ground is not for him.
“I don’t see much for him in those couple of months before Hong Kong and we don’t really want to jeopardise our chances for that. Wasting a run on soft ground wouldn’t be ideal.
“He has an entry in the Arc. I’m sure the owners will say we have beaten the favourite so why don’t we take our chance, but personally I think the ground will be too soft for him.
“I would only run him in it on good ground, but that is very unlikely to happen as Longchamp has often been soft ground in October. At that level he needs good ground.
“We will leave it closer to the time and see what the weather does.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2.77864403-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-09-06 14:24:532025-09-06 14:40:27Kalpana not a certain Arc contender after Kempton defeat
Kalpana’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hopes sustained a blow as Giavellotto inflicted a surprise defeat on the odds-on favourite in the Unibet September Stakes at Kempton.
Marco Botti’s globetrotting chestnut has not been seen since finishing third in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June, and looked to have stiff task on his hands when facing Andrew Balding’s ante-post favourite for the Arc.
Kalpana landed the Group Three by nearly five lengths last term and was the 1-2 market leader to retain her title, but Giavellotto was always travelling strongly under Oisin Murphy as the 9-4 second favourite.
At the business end of the contest Kalpana did threaten to challenge for a stride or two, but Giavellotto found plenty under pressure and she could not prevent him from crossing the line a length and a half ahead.
“Credit to Oisin, he went from plan A to B as we thought we were going to sit behind Kalpana,” Botti told Racing TV.
“I thought that was what was going to happen, they had a pacemaker and we were going to follow her through and see if we were good enough to challenge her in the last furlong.
“Oisin had to go to plan B, he sat second and the pace wasn’t very strong. He picked up well in the straight and every time Kalpana got to his girths, he just found a little bit more.
“I think it’s a good performance and I’m really pleased to see him back at this level.
“He is a fighter. He’s a horse that’s probably never really got the credit for what he’s done.”
Giavellotto was cut to 33-1 from 66s for the Arc by Paddy Power, who also pushed out Kalpana to 12-1 from 6-1 favourite for next month’s ParisLongchamp highlight.
Botti added: “We just have to consider now where we go next, we’ve always said Hong Kong is the main target because the ground is going to be against us for the next couple of months.
“I wouldn’t be worried if I had to just keep him well and fresh for Hong Kong.
“He is entered in the Arc but I must admit I have never thought the race would suit him because most of the time it is run on easy ground.
“I think that will be the case and therefore it is too risky, we know he doesn’t want anything softer than good.
“Champions Day is definitely a no, I wouldn’t compromise our chances on Hong Kong for a race on soft ground.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2.72243959-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-09-06 13:23:542025-09-06 13:23:54Giavellotto surprises hot favourite Kalpana in September Stakes
Connections of Kalpana admit their Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite faces a far from straightforward task in her bid for back-to-back victories Saturday’s Unibet September Stakes at Kempton.
Andrew Balding’s filly landed this Group Three prize en-route to success on Qipco Champions Day last season and while she has failed to get her head in front since, she has performed admirably to secure podium finishes in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, the Pretty Polly Stakes and the King George this term.
With the four-year-old being targeted at Europe’s premier middle-distance contest at ParisLongchamp in just over four weeks’ time, owners Juddmonte have warned she is not at concert pitch for Saturday’s assignment in Sunbury and in Hong Kong Vase winner Giavellotto she faces a serious rival.
“Hopefully she’s in good form and Andrew is happy with her, but it is a prep for the Arc and I think Andrew stated the other day that while she’s fit and well, she’s not been trained for this race,” said Juddmonte’s European racing manager Barry Mahon.
“It’s a stepping-stone towards the Arc and she had a hard race in the King George. She’s in good form and we’re hopeful that she’ll run a good race, but we have an eye on October and that’s the big day.
“In some years you can turn up for this race and it could be a 115-rated horse against plenty of 90-rated horses, but this year it’s definitely not that. Giavellotto is a top-class horse, he’s showed that season in, season out for the last few and he’ll be a tough nut (to crack).
“As long as our filly can run a good race and she shows she’s in good form, we’ll be happy and we’ll kick on to Longchamp.”
Trainer Andrew Balding is hoping to saddle Kalpana in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Mike Egerton/PA)
Balding is keeping his fingers crossed Kalpana can secure a confidence-boosting victory.
“They have been three really good runs this year, but she is yet to win a race and it would be nice to get the ball rolling and get back on track with a win to tee us nicely up for Paris in October,” said the Kingsclere handler.
“The Arc is one of the most important races in the calendar. Juddmonte were lucky enough to win it last year (with Bluestocking), and they have won it twice with Enable, along with plenty of other good horses, so they are no stranger to success in it, but I’ve never had a runner in the race.
“It is a privilege to train for them, and you have always got a chance of getting a good one as they breed such good horses.
“However, we still have plenty of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but the first step is Kempton Park at the weekend.”
Giavellotto has not been seen in competitive action since finishing third behind Jan Brueghel and Calandagan in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in early June.
His trainer Marco Botti said: “He’s been in good order and when we looked at the time of year and the ground is probably going to be on the easy side, which is not what he wants, we thought we’d take our chance in the September Stakes.
“He actually ran once at Kempton and won as a two-year-old and he’s also won at Newcastle, so he’s two from two on the all-weather.
“We obviously missed the Princess of Wales’s Stakes (at Newmarket in July) because he had a bad scope, so we just gave him a little bit more time as our main target is still Hong Kong and it’s a long season.
“I would say he should be pretty for fit for the race on Saturday and he’s shown his best form when he runs fresh anyway, so that’s definitely not a concern.”
Giavellotto has been an excellent servant to Marco Botti (Joe Giddens/PA)
On the prospect of facing Kalpana, the Newmarket-based Italian added: “She’s a very good filly and in the past this has been a good prep race for the Arc, so I can see why they’re taking that route.
“But we’re looking forward to seeing our horse back in action and we can make a plan then where we run next. He might or might not run again before Hong Kong. We have entered him in the Arc, but I never really felt he would get his ground in France at that time of the year.
“We’ll take it a step at a time, but it wouldn’t be worry me if after this race we keep him fresh and well for Hong Kong. All those things will be considered after the race.”
The Unibet Sirenia Stakes is the other Group Three on the card with a 10-strong field headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained Beckford’s Folly, who has won two of his three starts so far.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2.77864397-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-09-05 13:07:232025-09-05 13:07:23Kalpana takes September Stakes step to ultimate Arc aim
Kalpana will bid to strengthen her position as ante-post favourite for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with a first victory of the season in the Unibet September Stakes at Kempton on Saturday.
Although winless in three starts this season for trainer Andrew Balding, the Juddmonte-owned filly has performed admirably in defeat, finishing third on her Tattersalls Gold Cup reappearance before filling the runner-up spot in both the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland the King George at Ascot.
Connections considered a pre-Arc trip to Paris for this weekend’s Prix Vermeille, but ultimately decided to stay at home for a Group Three contest Kalpana won 12 months ago en-route to a first Group One success on Champions Day at Ascot.
Balding said: “Kalpana is very much on course for the September Stakes. She won the race last year, so we know that the track and trip suits her well.
“She put in a stellar performance during her last run and hopefully this will be a stepping-stone towards ParisLongchamp in October.
“We just thought she hasn’t won a race this year, and as we have taken her to Ireland twice this year, we thought finding something closer to home would be a better prep rather than running in another Group One before the Arc.
“We felt at the time that the King George took a bit more out of her than her other races and that is why we took away any temptation to run at York straight away and decided to wait for this.
“She has had a nice break since Ascot and this is very much a prep race so she will come on for the run, but she seems in great form.”
Kalpana is one of 13 entries for the September Stakes and may not have things entirely her own way, with several talent horses among the potential opposition.
Marco Botti could saddle his Hong Kong Vase-winning stable star Giavellotto, who was last seen finishing third in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in early June, while Charlie Appleby’s Arabian Crown got his career back on track with a Listed win at Windsor recently and could step back up in class.
Other potential runners include John and Thady Gosden’s pair of Military Academy and Palladium and the Willie Mullins-trained Absurde.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2.77864475-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-09-01 14:59:232025-09-01 14:59:23Kalpana out for repeat success in September Stakes
Kalpana is set to tune up for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with a run in the September Stakes at Kempton.
Enable used the Group Three as a stepping stone when successful in Paris in 2018 and she also won the Kempton contest on her penultimate outing for the same owners, Juddmonte.
Trainer Andrew Balding and racing manager Barry Mahon were choosing between Kempton and France for the Prix Vermeille after her meritorious King George run and have decided to stay closer to home.
Mahon said: “We’ve decided she’s going to go to Kempton for the September Stakes I think.
“The timing suits, she hasn’t won a race this year so I think Andrew is keen to get her head in front.
“She’s already travelled to Ireland twice and she’ll have to travel to France in October, so the attraction of staying at home is more alluring.
“The Yorkshire Oaks was never in the mix, we said after the King George that she’d had a couple of tough races and she’d freshen up.
“It was between the September Stakes or the Vermeille and we’re leaning towards the September at this stage.”
Reflecting on Minnie Hauk’s victory in the Yorkshire Oaks, he said: “The winner is class, she’s a class filly and even though there were only four runners it was a very good race.
“Wherever the winner goes in the autumn, she’s going to be difficult to beat.
“The Arc is an open race and we’re in there with a chance as one of the favourites, it’s nice to have a contender.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2.77864475-1-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-08-23 15:52:132025-08-23 15:52:13Kalpana team favouring September Stakes date ahead of Arc bid
George Scott has earmarked Kempton’s Unibet September Stakes for Isle Of Jura’s long-awaited comeback, with his stable star pleasing the Newmarket handler since returning to work.
A stand-out performer for the Eve Lodge team, he is unbeaten in his last five after building on his money-spinning success in Bahrain back on home soil, but he has been on the sidelines since registering a memorable victory in last year’s Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.
However, anticipation is now building that the long road to recovery is coming to an end, with Scott optimistic the five-year-old will be ready for action on the Sunbury all-weather on September 6.
Scott said: “He’s great and back in fast work and I think we can slightly begin to dream he will be back again as he’s taken some very significant steps forwards and is in great shape. His issue is handling great and it is really exciting.
“He’s going to go to the September Stakes, that will be his race and fits well with my plan to go for the Bahrain International.
“At least now we can be optimistic and start to make these plans and look forward to getting him back. We’ve jumped a lot of hurdles now and it would just be very unlucky if we didn’t see him in the September Stakes, he’s really doing well.
“He will have been off the track for a long time by the time we get to the September Stakes so in my head I will be thinking anything there is a bonus, but he’s a special racehorse to us.”
Trainer George Scott has his stable star to look forward to (David Davies/PA)
If all goes to plan for the Victorious Racing-owned Isle Of Jura in his Kempton return, then he will swiftly be on his travels in search of further riches in the Middle East, with Scott planning an ambitious winter programme.
Scott added: “He’ll spend his winter abroad and I imagine he will go to Bahrain and then move onto something like the Jebel Hatta (Meydan) and the Neom Turf Cup (Riyadh) and then back to Dubai for World Cup night, but that is a long way off.
“There’s unbelievable money in these races abroad and he loves fast ground and flat tracks so it just makes perfect sense.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2.76613716-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-08-04 09:08:012025-08-04 09:08:01Isle Of Jura pencilled in for September Stakes return
Well, Christmas and the New Year holidays are well and truly over, writes David Massey, and with the decorations stuffed back into the garage, the last of the Wensleydale and water biscuits demolished and just the awfulness of the Bounties left in the Celebrations tub (sorry Lydia, but it’s true) it’s time to go back to work.
Or at least it would be if the weather wasn’t playing havoc with my schedule this week. Leicester, which was the first port of call on Tuesday, bit the dust at the weekend and I’m not holding out a lot of hope for the nominated replacement fixture, Doncaster on Friday. Warwick on Saturday has to be in the balance, too, with the course waterlogged; and that in turn means they can’t get the frost sheets down for later in the week. I fear it may be a week at home, which in turn means the good lady will find lots of dreadful jobs for me to do. Anyone any good at hanging pictures up?
At least we got through Christmas with no abandonments and thank the Lord we did, with the good lady and myself taking in Kempton on Boxing Day and staying over for the Friday meeting before heading off to Challow Day at Newbury. She’d never been to King George Day before and so, despite a stupidly early get-up of 7am, we set off for what we hoped was a Bank Holiday weekend of tremendous sport.
The one really good thing about the Christmas period, when you do a lot of driving as part of your job, is the total lack of traffic on the road. It felt like it was at least ten minutes after leaving our house before we came across another vehicle. Why can’t it be like this all the time? Oh, how my life would be easier. No more bottlenecks in the roadworks on the A1 going to Wetherby. Goodbye, shocking jams near Heathrow that take me forty minutes to navigate on the way to Sandown. And farewell 50mph M1 roadworks near Northampton… actually, no. Those swines would still be there. Forever.
We arrived at Kempton in plenty of time – early, in fact, even after a Boxing Day Maccies breakfast stop at Watford Gap, a service station I frequently can’t find my way out of – and the Christmas spirit was already evident. After grabbing a coffee and catching up with my friend Anna from Sheffield, also at KG Day for the first time, I found my work partner Vicki and we set about how we were going to tackle the day.
The racing, I have to say, was superb. The Jukebox Man did not disappoint, looking every inch the chasing star I really hope he is. Constitution Hill, whilst not back to his best yet, was at least taking a step towards it in the Christmas Hurdle (and yes, he will come on for that). The wonderful Banbridge proved myself and others wrong by staying the three miles well and picking up a brave but tired Il Est Francais after the last. I was equally delighted to see L’Homme Presse finish third on his seasonal debut for Andy Edwards, and he tells me he's come out of the race well.
After the last we head to Addlestone, which is where we are staying for the next couple of nights. The good lady has booked us into a local Thai restaurant early evening for food, an excellent choice. We are greeted with a cheery “Merry Christmas!” by a Thai lady as we enter. I wish her a Merry Christmas back, thinking she was a member of staff. It turns out she wasn’t, merely a customer that had been enjoying herself in a local hostelry or two for the afternoon and wanted to carry that enjoyment on here. She entertained us by (loudly) singing along to all the easy-listening versions of classic pop songs the restaurant were playing – her rendition of Coldplay’s “Yellow” a personal highlight – until she’d entertained us for long enough and decided to go back to the pub. “If you ever come to Woking, I’ll take care of you!” she shouted as she left, something I wasn’t sure was a promise of hospitality or a threat. We finished our meal in peace and went back to the hotel for a quiet night.
Kempton Day 2. Breakfast in the superb Bread & Roses, which I can highly recommend if you’re ever in the area, is followed by a blissful 17-minute drive to the course. Although not before I’ve filled up with petrol, which has me muttering “how much?” as even the prices at the local supermarkets are considerably higher than they are in the Midlands. Can’t eat value, goes the old racing saying, but I can’t even put it in the tank down here.
With time to kill at the track, I try my hand at a Crystal Maze-like box that is one of the on-course attractions set up by Ladbrokes on the day. Those of you of a certain vintage will remember the endgame of The Crystal Maze: what remained of the team of accountants/nurses/architects by this point were locked into a huge glass dome before they turned the fans on, and all the pretty gold and silver tickets flew around their heads. The aim was to get 100 Gold tokens to win the big prize (“The pony-trekking holiday in Ullswater will be MINE!”) which they failed to do with alarming regularity. This was similar, but with flying foam balls. I scored 30 in my allotted 30 seconds in the box, which I thought was pretty good, but the bloke after me, who couldn’t have been much more than five foot tall, scored an impressive 38. Lower centre of gravity, I told myself. Yes, it was that, and not the fact I’m old and creaking, that was the difference. Let’s move on.
The highlight of the day’s racing was, without doubt, Sir Gino, who looked superb before the Wayward Lad and, as he danced around Kempton’s tight turns attracting oohs and aaahs from the knowledgeable crowd as he put in spectacular leaps at some of his fences, you did get the feeling you were watching a new chasing star being born. From a punting perspective, by far the better day of the two for me, with both Della Casa Lunga and Ooh Betty getting me back in front over the two days.
With the Italian restaurant cancelling my reservation for no good reason, food that night is nothing more than a raid on the local Waitrose and back to the hotel but the peace of the evening is rudely shattered by the fire alarm going off. We’re all outside – I say all, there couldn’t have been more than forty of us – debating whether this is someone having a fag in one of the rooms or whether local kids are mucking around, when I realise I’ve left my coat in the room and am now freezing cold. It takes 40 minutes to sort the mess out, but thankfully it’s a false alarm, and nothing worse than us missing an Only Connect Christmas Special has happened. However, the alarm periodically goes off for a few seconds at a time and we wonder whether we are going to get through the night without another visit to the car park.
The episode takes me back to a time when that happened in a Travelodge in (I think) Leatherhead a few years ago. We were all outside in the cold when a lady offered me her dressing gown. That was weird enough, but literally getting propositioned by her not long after put the tin hat on things. (No, I didn’t, behave yourselves. I’m better than that. Not much, but I am.)
As things turned out, it was a Silent Night, with the alarm behaving itself and we get a decent kip. A final Builder’s Breakfast at Bread & Roses (the scales were not kind to me next morning) and we are on the road to Newbury.
Now, Newbury is one of those tracks that seems to split opinion. Vicki loves the place, but she’s crackers, and I’m with the majority that find the place hard going these days. I have to say that the new pre-parade ring is very good, though, and a real boon for those wanting to get an early look.
This is supposed to be a day off with the good lady for me, with Vicki doing the donkey work for Trackside today, but it isn’t long before I’m roped back in as the favourite for the second is taken back to the pre-parade. “Get in there and see what the problem is, will ya?” she says, literally pushing me that way in the process. I do as I’m told, obviously, and it turns out they’re having issues with the tongue-tie, which gets a report. The horse ends up well beaten.
The Good Doctor, on which I’ve had a decent bet in the next, isn’t quite good enough, as it turns out, with The Famous Five having his measure by a short-head. The wife has backed the winner, too, a double kick in the Norbits, but Henry’s Friend prevailing an hour later ensures I won’t go home potless on the day.
The Challow is a cracker, with The New Lion looking every inch the top-class hurdler (and future chaser) he promised to be beforehand. He’s too good for them, far too good. Did I foresee him being sold within a week? Using the Yates' celebrations after as a guide, I did not.
It’s getting dark, and our Bank Holiday Bonanza Of Racing is coming to a close. With still little traffic on the roads, we head home via the M40 and A43. We’re within a couple of miles of the now defunct Towcester Racecourse at one point. Oh, how I wish that was still open. Finding slow horses is something I can do…
The M1 Northampton roadworks haven’t gone away. You can’t have everything, I suppose. Home for seven, and a chance to catch up with that missing Only Connect. I reckon we could do a racing version, if we put our minds to it. I’ve got some time on my hands this week now. I’ll have a think and get back to you in the next missive.
See you on a racecourse soon!
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Banbridge_KingGeorgeVChase_Kempton2024.jpg318830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2025-01-07 13:56:232025-01-07 13:56:23Roving Reports: Reflections from the Festivities
It has been a while since I looked at all-weather draw biases so with plenty more racing on those surfaces to come this winter it seemed a good time to revisit the stats, writes Dave Renham.
Introduction
When I think about draw biases in turf racing, they tend to be far less predictable or consistent than draw biases on the all-weather (AW). There are a few reasons why this tends to be the case:
1. Some turf courses are increasing the number of meetings and they move rails to alter where the horses run. This can nullify or even change a draw bias.
2. The positioning of the stalls can change at some courses altering the track location that the horses are running from each draw. For example, on a straight track a horse could be drawn 1 when the stalls are positioned far side and be next to the far rail, but if the stalls on are the stands’ side the horse drawn 1 could be out in the middle of the course. Hence, if we hypothetically assume that the ground next to the far rail is quicker than the ground down the centre, then a horse drawn 1 could have a big advantage if the stalls are placed far side. Conversely if the stalls are stands' side, then the horse drawn 1 does not have this advantage. Moreover, running against a rail is generally more of an advantage than running in the middle of the track.
3. Turf courses use watering which potentially can change the going on certain parts of a track: that may then have an impact on any bias.
As far as the AW is concerned, these three reasons are not much of an issue. At AW courses the rails are fixed so moving them is not an option, and the position of the stalls doesn’t change either. Also, the going tends to be very similar on all-weather – the surface they race on is clearly the same each time, and whether it rides ‘standard’ or slower than ‘standard’ depends on the specific course surface, any additional harrowing undertaken and possibly the weather conditions.
The table below shows the percentage of races at each course in the past three years that has ridden either ‘standard’ or ‘standard to slow’. Those are the only two going descriptions we have had since the start of 2022.
As can be seen most of the courses primarily race on ‘standard’ going. At Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton they rarely race on slower going. Kempton has raced on ‘standard to slow’ at every meeting over the past three years (indeed every meeting since 11th July 2018 - when does that become the new 'standard'? - Ed.), while Southwell sees slower ground about one meeting in five.
Newcastle is the course where there is the most even split with just under two-thirds of meetings having raced on ‘standard’, the other third on ‘standard to slow’. It should be noted that between the months of June and September around 60% of the Newcastle meetings have been on ‘standard to slow’, so one could logically surmise that either drier or warmer weather has the most impact in terms of the going there. All the course data points to the fact that how an AW course rides is rarely affected by significant changes in going.
In addition to all of the above, four of the six UK AW tracks see all races run around a bend. This can help in terms of consistency when it comes to the draw. Running around a bend means horses running closest to the rail having to run a shorter distance, thus on round courses lower draws tend to have an edge because they are drawn closer to the inside.
This introduction has made the hypothetical case for more consistent draw bias on the artifical surfaces, so let us see if this has actually been the case. The draw data I have collated goes back to the start of 2017 with the focus on 8+ runner handicaps, which are the best races to analyse when it comes to the draw. I will be looking at four course/distance combinations in detail, arguably the four strongest AW draw biases, starting with the minimum trip at Chelmsford.
Chelmsford 5f
The 5f distance at Chelmsford should favour lower draws because the bend they run starts little more than a furlong into the race and then sweeps round for two further furlongs until they turn into the straight. The racecourse map is shown below:
Let us look at the draw splits for the whole-time frame in terms of win percentages within each third of the draw:
As expected, lower draws have an edge over middle drawn runners, who in turn enjoy an advantage over high draw runners. If there was no bias all these figures should be close to the 33.3% mark. The lower the draw the better with horses drawn 1 winning 31 races (18.3% of all races), horses drawn 2 winning 24 (14.2%). Combined, the two lowest draws have won 55 races, compared with the two highest drawn horses in each race who have collectively won 22 between them.
This suggests that horses drawn in the lowest two stalls are 2.5 times more likely to win than those drawn in the highest two stalls. This disparity increases when the number of runners increases, peaking at 4.3 times more likely when the field size is 11 or 12. It should also be noted that horses drawn 1 have made a profit to SP and BSP, as have those drawn 2. The profits are very small to SP, but with 169 runs for each stall position this suggests there is some value backing these two draws.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) there is positive correlation with the win data with low on 0.54, middle 0.52 and high down at 0.45.
If we now look at the record of the lowest third of the draw by individual year we might expect to see big fluctuations, due mainly to small sample sizes and standard variances. To counter that, I have grouped the annual data in a slightly different way using a method I first saw in Nick Mordin’s excellent book, Winning Without Thinking. He looked at data in batches / groups of years, which is a good way to compare things more effectively due to more reliable sample sizes. You can also see patterns changing more easily – if indeed they do change. He used five-year batches; I’m going to look at four-year batches. Below is a graph comparing the win percentage for the lowest third of the draw using the batch/group method:
The bias has remained fairly consistent with all four-year batches showing 40%+ figures. The graph suggests that there may be a slight strengthening of the bias over the last eight years but, regardless of whether that is true, it is clear I hope that this bias is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Before moving on, there seems to be a draw bias ‘cut off point’ at stall 7. Specifically, horses drawn 7 or lower have won 144 races from 1183 runners (SR 12.2%). Those drawn 8 or higher have won 25 races from 424 runners (SR 5.9%). In addition, over this track and trip, horses drawn 11 or 12 (the maximum field size is 12) are 1 win from 50 (SR 2%).
My betting strategy as regards the draw over 5f at Chelmsford is to primarily focus on horses drawn 1 and 2, but I am prepared to look at horses drawn as high as 7. Those drawn 8 or higher will get a line through them unless they have several strong factors to bring to the table.
Chelmsford 6f
Remaining at Chelmsford we move up a furlong to six. With the bend being an additional furlong away from the start, one would expect that the low draw bias might be less potent than it is over 5f. Let’s look at the win percentages by third of draw first:
As expected the edge for low draws is less strong and, also, high draws have fared much better at this trip in terms of wins compared with 5f. However, in Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) terms the figures are more akin to the 5f cohort, especially looking at the low third and the high third. The PRB for low draws stands at 0.55 (0.54 over 5f), middle lies on 0.49 (0.52 over 5f) and high at 0.46 (0.45 over 5f). These figures suggest low’s advantage over high is similar to that of the minimum distance. The win & placed figures are also very similar when comparing the draw thirds over the two distances. Essentially, I would say that from a win perspective, the bias is less strong over six furlongs while in terms of getting placed it is similar.
It should also be noted that the maximum field size over 6f is 14, two more than over five furlongs. It is rare that 13 or 14 runners come to post here but, for the record, no horse drawn 13 or 14 won in the eight-year period from 38 runners to try.
Looking through the value lens, however, using A/E indices, higher draws have scored best. Their figure of 0.92 is well above the low figure of 0.81 and middle one of 0.82. Perhaps bookmakers and punters perceive the bias to be stronger than it is at this distance.
My betting strategy as regards the draw over 6f at Chelmsford is to only rule out horses drawn 13 or 14. Hence for most races that means I would not be put off by any draw position. Indeed, as the A/E indices showed there is probably value looking higher than lower. [In fact, run style is arguably much more material at this course and distance - see this article (from late 2021), partially replicated below.
Kempton 6f
Traditionally this range at Kempton has produced the strongest and most consistent draw bias on the AW. For years low draws have held sway. There is a similarly strong bias over 5f, but qualifying races are rare with only three in the past three years (that trio were won by horses drawn 1, 1 and 2). Let us look at the win percentage splits for each third of the draw going back to 2017:
Low draws have won 46.5% of all races which is the biggest percentage for any all-weather course and distance combination using the 8+ runner handicaps condition. Additionally, the number of races during this time frame was 400 so a strong sample size. Backing horses drawn 3 or 4 would have yielded a profit to BSP of 10p in the £. In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) these figure correlate positively showing that clear edge to lower drawn runners:
The low to high comparison of 0.57 to 0.42 further illustrates the strength of this bias. From a punting perspective low draws offer the best value as well, with an A/E index of 0.93 compared with 0.88 for middle draws and a lowly 0.68 for high.
Earlier I discussed a Nick Mordin idea of grouping data in yearly batches to give more accurate comparisons over different time frames / years. As I did with Chelmsford over 5f earlier, here are the four-year win percentages over 6f at Kempton for the lowest third of the draw using this grouping method:
As can be seen this bias has remained consistently strong over the whole of the eight-year time frame. I also used this idea for the PRBs, across all three sections of the draw, and we see excellent consistency once more.
Before moving on, it should be noted once more that the low draw bias increases as field size increases. The maximum field size is 12 and looking solely at races contested by 11 or 12 runners, the lowest third of the draw won more than half (52.2%) of the races with a PRB of 0.59; the highest third won just a sixth of the time with a PRB of 0.41.
Wolverhampton 5f
The fourth and final course/distance combination takes us to Wolverhampton and their minimum trip. Let's start with a look at the draw splits based on win percentage by third of the draw:
The implication is again of a decent low draw bias, with a repeat of the pattern seen above in terms of the lower the better. The PRB figures correlate positively with the win percentage splits as the graph below illustrates:
All things considered one would much rather be drawn low than high.
Let us now compare 2017-2020 with 2021-2024 rather than the 4-yearly groupings I used earlier. I am doing this for two reasons: one, to mix the article up a bit; and two, to clearly highlight the more recent struggles of higher draws. This would have been shown using the earlier Mordin method, too, just so readers know I’m not moving the goalposts in any way:
The chart illustrates how higher draws have diminished nearly 8% in terms of win success across the two four-yearly time frames. This is quite a steep decline but it is not easy to understand why. One reason may be because the average price of the highest three drawn runners has been slightly higher in the 2021-2024 period compared with 2017-2020. However, the average price difference is negligible really and it could be a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' due to this bias being subsumed in the market, so perhaps something else is going on. Maybe it is down to statistical variance? It is impossible to say.
My final graph this week shows the win success rate of each individual stall / draw position at Wolverhampton over 5f.
This presents a clear indication that stall 4 is probably the cut-off point for top bias. In fact, if you had backed stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 blind over the eight-year review period you would have ended up with a profit to BSP of £102.79 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a 7p in the £ return.
Summary
To conclude, the draw biases shown have been highly consistent especially in terms of the strongest stall positions which, in each case, has been the lowest drawn third.
Wolverhampton 5f has been less consistent with its high draw data, but overall, the draw biases at these four track/range combos have virtually remained the same throughout the eight-year period. In addition, there is no reason to suggest this might change any time soon (although markets are likely to eventually further cotton on and adjust prices accordingly).
Finally, and the most important thing from a punter’s perspective, low draws continue to offer the best value at each of Chelmsford 5f, Kempton 6f and Wolverhampton 5f, while fielding against the bias with higher draws over 6f at Chelmsford - especially with runners capable of a forward run style - looks the way to go.
A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.
Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.
Introduction
Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.
The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.
The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:
Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.
Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases
It is time to start the countdown:
10. Kempton 7f
Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.
Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:
An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.
9. Lingfield 6f
Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:
Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.
At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.
8. Chelmsford 1m
This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs):
As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.
7. Kempton 6f
Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.
Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.
6. Chelmsford 6f
The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.
Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.
5. Wolverhampton 5f
The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:
This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:
Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.
In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.
4. Chelmsford 7f
The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:
Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.
It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:
Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:
The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.
3. Southwell 5f
This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:
A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:
The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.
It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!
2. Chelmsford 5f
The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.
1. Lingfield 5f
Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:
If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.
Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:
Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.
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Conclusion
The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.
Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.
As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.
For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.
Until next time...
- DR
Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez
In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.
And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-12-04 09:16:202024-12-04 09:16:20Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
If I'm honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the meetings today, but the biggest pot is at Kempton, where the polytrack will be standard to slow for our six races that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 4.13, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...
Freak Encounter and Keep Singing were fourth and seventh in a heavy ground race that I covered yesterday at Leicester and I'm not sure if they'll run here or not, but if they do I'd expect the former to beat the latter. and Freak Encounter's recent form suggest he could make the frame here in a poorer race than yesterday.
Montbeliarde was a runner-up here at Kempton over 7f in August and would have been much closer than his five length defeat at Salisbury last time out had he not been badly hampered inside the final furlong.
Stat-wise, the Osborne's (Freak Encounter) do well here at Kempton...
...as do the team behind Spirit Lead Me who drops two classes...
...so I'll side with (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter here and hope the latter turns out.
Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...
D Day Harley R was a decent third at Leicester last time out and in first-time cheekpieces could get closer to getting off the mark here. Corpus Juris has been solid/consistent to date and despite failing to win any of seven starts, he tends not to get beaten by far, whilst Good Call was third in that Leicester race featuring the two runners from the above race. She could go well here too, but like the pair in the previous race, isn't guaranteed to turn up. She's the stablemate of Keep Singing, so I suspect we'll either see both or we'll see none.
There's not a great deal of pace in the contest, although Corpus Juris made the running in two of his last four and Good Call does like to race prominently...
D Day Harley R's team have a good record here at Kempton...
...and Corpus Juris' stable aren't averse to quickly turning horses around...
...giving me (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call here again in the hope that the latter runs.
Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...
Only six of the thirteen runners have raced previously and of those Hott Shott (a win and a place from three starts) and Eupator (third on debut a fortnight ago) have run best so far.
Hott Shott is actually down four classes after finishing fifth (5 lengths down) in the Group 3 Solario at Sandown last time out and a similar run here should actually be more than enough to get back to winning ways and his yard have had a decent year here at Kempton...
The obvious call here would be to take both (1) Hott Shott and (4) Eupator here, whilst of the debutants, you've always got to fear Godolphin runners trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick anyway, but the relevant stats at play here for (8) Montezuma are very eye-catching...
...(1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma is the play for me here.
Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Maiden over 7f...
Dark Lyric was a runner-up over 1m here last month, virtually making all and having been caught really late on despite being a length clear with half a furlong to run, so the drop back in trip gives her a real chance of winning today. Faro di Notte didn't really get going on soft ground at Sandown last time out, but had made the frame in three races on the bounce prior to that effort and if running to those levels could be involved here if handling the switch to the A/W.
First Kiss was a solid third of ten here over course and distance in a Class 4 Novice event almost a year ago, but then didn't race again until ten months later. There a combination of the lay-off, a step up in trip and a step up in class all probably contributed to her finishing last of nine, but she should come on for that run, she's back down in trip and down two classes here and I suspect/hope we see a different horse today and she is backed by a host of data...
Of those with race experience, they'd be my shortlist, whilst the breeding of newcomer Born To Lead will interest people too, although his yard's record with debutants isn't the best...
...so I'll stick with (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss here.
Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 2, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...
Another race full of debutants (8 of the 13 runners have yet to race!) and of those with experience Darn Hot Mystery, Cartwheel and Rosso Levanto would be the three most likely to go well here after their runs so far.
Darn Hot Mystery was 3rd of 14 over course and distance here on debut two months ago and followed that up by finishing 2nd of 7 at Lingfield a month ago, beaten by just a short head when caught pretty much on the line. The third placed horse has made the frame again since and Zizi, who was fifth, has won at Wolverhampton recently.
Cartwheel plugged on well to finish third of nine at Beverley on debut four weeks ago and the runner-up has since re-appeared to win at Wolverhampton whilst Rosso Levanto was also third on debut eight days ago battling through the mud at Leicester in a four length defeat. She led for much of that race and was only headed inside the last of the 8.5 furlongs, so the drop back in trip on slightly easier going might help.
There's not a great deal jumping out from the racecard trainer/jockey stats aside from poor records with debutants for the yards running Lieutenant Lily, Prima Diva, Rye & Annsar, so a safety first/better the devil you know approach from me and the coward's way out with (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto here.
Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Handicap over 1m3f...
This is probably the most open and possibly the best race of the six we're covering, despite it only being a Class 5 handicap, as you can find positives about all of them...
Ellexis won last time out, but hasn't raced for nine months, Speriamo won two starts ago and was a runner-up last time out, whilst Loving Look has five top-three finishes (1 win) from her six starts to date. True Wisdom was a runner-up on her penultimate outing, Miss Bielsa returns from a four month-break after a win and a place from her first three runs and although Salamanca City was only 6th of 8 on soft ground at Leicester five weeks ago, she had finished 3221 in her previous four handicap outings.
Placeholder has two wins and a place from her six starts so far (2 from 4 on the A/W), nine-race maiden Bas Bleu has finished in the first three home in all but one of her last seven starts and handicap debutant Ever Hopefull has been third in each of her last two with bottom weight Alvesta probably the weakest in the field, but even she has four top-three placings from her last ten starts.
Most of the field drop in class today, which might put Ellexis, Ever Hopefull and Alvesta at a slight disadvantage. As for relevant past form, the place stats on Instant Expert highlight...
True Wisdom is interesting here with a good draw and he also heads the average pace scores after these efforts...
...and as I think he might be better than an 8/1 shot, (4) True Wisdom goes on my Tix Ticket Builder along with (3) Loving Look who brings arguably the best recent form to the table, having won here over 1m4f on her last A/W outing and another who looks like she might be better than her current odds is (2) Speriamo; she won over 1m2f at Chelmsford in mid-September and still had enough in the tank to get within half a length of winning again over the same trip at Newmarket two days later. Chorus was a neck further back in third that day and she has since won a Class 2 handicap over 1m4f, so 12/1 about Speriamo looks big to me and I'll probably also have an E/W bet on her here.
*
All of which gave me...
Leg 1: (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter [Freak Encounter was withdrawn, so I added (5) Beauhaather as a last-minute replacement on the back of a promising effort over C&D LTO]
Leg 2: (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call
Leg 3: (1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma
Leg 4: (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss
Leg 5: (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto
It's been a while since my last missive, mainly because after the last one the good lady and myself took ourselves off to St Ives to celebrate her milestone birthday, writes Dave Massey. You'll not want to hear stories about me traipsing around the coast, visiting art galleries and generally making out I'm far more cultured than I actually am; what you want to know is where I've been racing since I got back.
It started with my first visit to Plumpton this season, that coming on the Bob Champion Charity Raceday, a meeting I do try and get down to each year. Plumpton, like Fakenham, is one of those well-run country tracks where after about four visits, you know the crowd that go there on first-name terms. I love the place, full of genuine race enthusiasts that have their favourites. You can pretty much guarantee a roar going up every time a Chris Gordon or Gary Moore horse hits the front in the closing stages. The former had one winner on the day, the latter two, and I doubt very much that the bookmakers walked away winning.
I'm staying in a hotel in Horsham for a couple of nights, as Kempton and Fontwell are also on the agenda in the next two days. After a long drive down I'm really tired and fall asleep about half ten, only to be woken up around 12.45am as the fire alarm goes off. I'm on the top floor, right at the rear of the hotel, so quickly put trousers and a t-shirt on, grab the phone and wallet and get out as swiftly as possible.
However, I didn't put socks and shoes on, and am stood outside without either. What happens next is bizarre, to say the least; the potted version is a German woman took pity on me, gave me her dressing gown, chatted to me for 15 minutes before asking me my star sign to see if we'd be compatible, and then gave me her room number. I'm not making this up. I mean, I couldn't have looked any worse - disheveled without footwear in the early hours, hair all over the place, yet here we are. After being allowed back into the hotel (no fire, a sensor issue) you'll be pleased to hear, dear reader, I retired to my own room.
Tuesday. I decide, as I'm fairly near, to have an hour at Hove greyhounds before I set off for Kempton. It's depressing to tell you that there couldn't have been a dozen punters there. The place had all the atmosphere of a crypt. It's saying something when the evening Kempton meeting felt busy by comparison. Such a shame, as Hove used to be a really busy little place, even the afternoon meetings drawing enough to make playing the Tote worthwhile. No longer.
A change of plan. I'm supposed to be going to Fontwell on the Wednesday, but I've a share in one running at Worcester and the card, with three novice hurdles and a bumper, looks more appealing. So I set off from Horsham around 7.45 am in bright sunshine, but by the time I get to Worcester around 11.30 it's cold and cloudy and the wind is blowing.
My fallouts with the car park attendants at Worcester have been many over time, but on this occasion all goes smoothly and before you know it, I'm enjoying an early lunch. There aren't many bets to be had on the card, although I do like the giant (and wonderfully named, Trumpton fans) Cuthbert Dibble in the bumper and try a little each-way investment. Third place gets me a small profit back but he's definitely one you want to be taking forward. Lovely big chasing type, he'll do well once he sees some obstacles.
Sadly Blue Suede Shoes, the horse I've a small share in, doesn't complete and leaves us scratching our heads. Too green, or just not a racehorse? I've no doubt her next couple of runs will reveal a lot more.
Thursday. Southwell sees rain, lots of it. It's the usual crowd, and as they don't want to hang around outside between races, it is decided we will all bet to 15 minutes. This means no prices until fifteen minutes before the off, with all the books going up at the same time. This not only gives you time to get a cup of tea and a loo visit between races, but it gives a chance for the market to form properly.
So we open up fifteen minutes before the first. There is one, sole, woman punter in the ring. None of us are in a rush to get her business.
She comes over to me, and looks at the board. To the astonishment of us all, she announces...
"£300 number one, and £100 ew number three."
We all stand there, open-mouthed. What just happened there, then?
It turns out she's one of a party upstairs who have all chipped a fair amount of money into a pot and are basically betting whatever the majority go with. Number 1 wins, and she draws £1300 off us as a start. £300 is invested back and they keep a grand. Sadly for them, they barely back another winner and by the time the last comes around, funds have dwindled.
However, there's a twist. They have their last £300 as a £150 each-way bet on Superstar DJ at 28-1. When it romps home, you can hear the screams a mile away. Over £5k to draw. You have never seen a happier bunch of ladies and we're delighted to pay them out.
And so to the end of the week, and a return to the home of National Hunt. Yes, Cheltenham is back, and I'm working on the rails both days.
The Friday is a quiet day, despite plenty of runners, and there are few big bets flying around. The biggest I take is a £300 Music Drive in the novice hurdle at 13-8, but that stays in the satchel as Mofasa, who looked really well going to post, comes out on top despite a mistake at the last.
The rain just keeps a-fallin' even with the forecasts saying that it ought to have stopped around lunchtime; but Cheltenham, as we know from Champion Chase Day this year, has its own micro-climate and trying to guess the weather here is a game in itself. Two slip up on the Flat in the last and we all agree it's probably a good job there's no more racing on the day.
Saturday is busier. Some old familiar faces in the crowd including Cheltenham member Bridget, who always has her fiver with me. Good judge too, is Bridget, and after she's backed Shearer in the first I remark to her it's always the same old faces in the payout queue!
Things really get going in the handicap chase that follows but Lord Accord is an absolute skinner on my side of the book. Not one single person has backed it with me which, for a Cheltenham handicap, is remarkable. A total payout of £115 on the race on my side, with just the places to reimburse.
That means I can crack on with the next and here comes the money for Pied Piper. Plenty of £200 and £400 bets and they don't have much worry as he quickens clear after the last to win. This payout is bigger, but it's nowhere near as big as it is for Dad's Lad in the next.
Dad's Lad is one of those horses that the public latch on to in a big way. One in three bets I take is on the Mullins charge. The writing is on the wall from some way out as he cruises into contention and, although the winning margin is under a length, the result never really seemed in doubt. £3k to pay out and a bad result.
And of course, the tenners and twenties merchants all back the outsider of three in the novice chase, so Chemical Energy is no good either. Encanto Bruno wins the last as favourite and that puts the nail in the coffin for many of the books. The dark is already descending as we pack away; it's time to head home...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Cheltenham_Rails_Bookmakers.jpg320826David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-10-26 08:37:472022-11-30 15:51:22Roving Reports: To Cheltenham, eventually
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