Tix Picks, Wednesday 16/10/24
Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Nottingham, Wetherby & Worcester.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
If I'm honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the meetings today, but the biggest pot is at Kempton, where the polytrack will be standard to slow for our six races that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 4.13, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...
Freak Encounter and Keep Singing were fourth and seventh in a heavy ground race that I covered yesterday at Leicester and I'm not sure if they'll run here or not, but if they do I'd expect the former to beat the latter. and Freak Encounter's recent form suggest he could make the frame here in a poorer race than yesterday.
Montbeliarde was a runner-up here at Kempton over 7f in August and would have been much closer than his five length defeat at Salisbury last time out had he not been badly hampered inside the final furlong.
Stat-wise, the Osborne's (Freak Encounter) do well here at Kempton...
...as do the team behind Spirit Lead Me who drops two classes...
...so I'll side with (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter here and hope the latter turns out.
Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 2yo Nursery over 1m...
D Day Harley R was a decent third at Leicester last time out and in first-time cheekpieces could get closer to getting off the mark here. Corpus Juris has been solid/consistent to date and despite failing to win any of seven starts, he tends not to get beaten by far, whilst Good Call was third in that Leicester race featuring the two runners from the above race. She could go well here too, but like the pair in the previous race, isn't guaranteed to turn up. She's the stablemate of Keep Singing, so I suspect we'll either see both or we'll see none.
There's not a great deal of pace in the contest, although Corpus Juris made the running in two of his last four and Good Call does like to race prominently...
D Day Harley R's team have a good record here at Kempton...
...and Corpus Juris' stable aren't averse to quickly turning horses around...
...giving me (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call here again in the hope that the latter runs.
Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...
Only six of the thirteen runners have raced previously and of those Hott Shott (a win and a place from three starts) and Eupator (third on debut a fortnight ago) have run best so far.
Hott Shott is actually down four classes after finishing fifth (5 lengths down) in the Group 3 Solario at Sandown last time out and a similar run here should actually be more than enough to get back to winning ways and his yard have had a decent year here at Kempton...
The obvious call here would be to take both (1) Hott Shott and (4) Eupator here, whilst of the debutants, you've always got to fear Godolphin runners trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick anyway, but the relevant stats at play here for (8) Montezuma are very eye-catching...
...(1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma is the play for me here.
Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Maiden over 7f...
Dark Lyric was a runner-up over 1m here last month, virtually making all and having been caught really late on despite being a length clear with half a furlong to run, so the drop back in trip gives her a real chance of winning today. Faro di Notte didn't really get going on soft ground at Sandown last time out, but had made the frame in three races on the bounce prior to that effort and if running to those levels could be involved here if handling the switch to the A/W.
First Kiss was a solid third of ten here over course and distance in a Class 4 Novice event almost a year ago, but then didn't race again until ten months later. There a combination of the lay-off, a step up in trip and a step up in class all probably contributed to her finishing last of nine, but she should come on for that run, she's back down in trip and down two classes here and I suspect/hope we see a different horse today and she is backed by a host of data...
Of those with race experience, they'd be my shortlist, whilst the breeding of newcomer Born To Lead will interest people too, although his yard's record with debutants isn't the best...
...so I'll stick with (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss here.
Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 2, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...
Another race full of debutants (8 of the 13 runners have yet to race!) and of those with experience Darn Hot Mystery, Cartwheel and Rosso Levanto would be the three most likely to go well here after their runs so far.
Darn Hot Mystery was 3rd of 14 over course and distance here on debut two months ago and followed that up by finishing 2nd of 7 at Lingfield a month ago, beaten by just a short head when caught pretty much on the line. The third placed horse has made the frame again since and Zizi, who was fifth, has won at Wolverhampton recently.
Cartwheel plugged on well to finish third of nine at Beverley on debut four weeks ago and the runner-up has since re-appeared to win at Wolverhampton whilst Rosso Levanto was also third on debut eight days ago battling through the mud at Leicester in a four length defeat. She led for much of that race and was only headed inside the last of the 8.5 furlongs, so the drop back in trip on slightly easier going might help.
There's not a great deal jumping out from the racecard trainer/jockey stats aside from poor records with debutants for the yards running Lieutenant Lily, Prima Diva, Rye & Annsar, so a safety first/better the devil you know approach from me and the coward's way out with (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto here.
Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Fillies Handicap over 1m3f...
This is probably the most open and possibly the best race of the six we're covering, despite it only being a Class 5 handicap, as you can find positives about all of them...
Ellexis won last time out, but hasn't raced for nine months, Speriamo won two starts ago and was a runner-up last time out, whilst Loving Look has five top-three finishes (1 win) from her six starts to date. True Wisdom was a runner-up on her penultimate outing, Miss Bielsa returns from a four month-break after a win and a place from her first three runs and although Salamanca City was only 6th of 8 on soft ground at Leicester five weeks ago, she had finished 3221 in her previous four handicap outings.
Placeholder has two wins and a place from her six starts so far (2 from 4 on the A/W), nine-race maiden Bas Bleu has finished in the first three home in all but one of her last seven starts and handicap debutant Ever Hopefull has been third in each of her last two with bottom weight Alvesta probably the weakest in the field, but even she has four top-three placings from her last ten starts.
Most of the field drop in class today, which might put Ellexis, Ever Hopefull and Alvesta at a slight disadvantage. As for relevant past form, the place stats on Instant Expert highlight...
True Wisdom is interesting here with a good draw and he also heads the average pace scores after these efforts...
...and as I think he might be better than an 8/1 shot, (4) True Wisdom goes on my Tix Ticket Builder along with (3) Loving Look who brings arguably the best recent form to the table, having won here over 1m4f on her last A/W outing and another who looks like she might be better than her current odds is (2) Speriamo; she won over 1m2f at Chelmsford in mid-September and still had enough in the tank to get within half a length of winning again over the same trip at Newmarket two days later. Chorus was a neck further back in third that day and she has since won a Class 2 handicap over 1m4f, so 12/1 about Speriamo looks big to me and I'll probably also have an E/W bet on her here.
*
All of which gave me...
Leg 1: (3) Montbeliarde, (4) Spirit Lead Me & (9) Freak Encounter [Freak Encounter was withdrawn, so I added (5) Beauhaather as a last-minute replacement on the back of a promising effort over C&D LTO]
Leg 2: (2) D Day Harley R, (4) Corpus Juris & (8) Good Call
Leg 3: (1) Hott Shott, (4) Eupator & (8) Montezuma
Leg 4: (2) Dark Lyric, (4) Faro di Notte & (6) First Kiss
Leg 5: (4) Darn Hot Mystery, (12) Cartwheel & (14) Rosso Levanto
Leg 6: (2) Speriamo, (3) Loving Look & (4) True Wisdom
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
As ever, the very best of luck, I fear I might need it today!
Chris
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