Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.35 Ayr
  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.10 Ayr
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following qualifier...

And with TS report qualifier Enemy At The Gate running in one of our featured races, let's head North for the 2.10 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and with more rain expected, it's difficult to expect it to be any quicker come race time. Here's the card...

Mount Melleray returns to action some 24 months after his last start, so he might well need the run here, as all his opponents have raced in the last four weeks with only Ballin Bay emerging as a winner.

He had Enemy At The Gate a length and a half behind him as runner-up that day, whilst Cream of the West and Here Comes McCoy both finished third on their last outings, the latter doing so for the third time in a row but he did win six races ago.

HERE COMES MCCOY has finished third of seven in all three starts over hurdles since unseating his rider on chase debut last New Year's Eve when trying to refuse to jump the first fence. His recent form over these smaller obstacles reads 216333 and he should be in the mix here, but will need to step forward.

MOUNT MELLERAY hasn't been seen since October 2022 and is a 13-race maiden. On the positive side, he has finished in the first three home seven times from his last ten outings and drops a class here. Likely to need a run or two.

CORAL BLUE won three times over hurdles last season, including over 2m4½f here at Ayr on his penultimate run of the campaign. He recently returned from an eight month break at Newcastle, when 9th of 12, beaten by 33 lengths over 2m1f and looking like he needed the run. Should come on for having had the outing, but will need improvement to win here.

NOWINITTOWINIT won back to back hurdles races at Perth in April/May before a six month break. He returned at Musselburgh recently and was beaten by 33 lengths. Now wears a tongue tie for the first time.

BALLIN BAY made steady progress over hurdles (finishing 6643) before getting off the mark at Kelso last time out, beating the re-opposing Enemy At The Gate by a length and a half. That run came after a 229-day absence, so there's every chance he has more to offer.

ENEMY AT THE GATE is a ten-race (2 x NHF, 8 x hrds) maiden, but has ran creditably in defeat of late, finishing 2342 in his last four with runner-up defeats of 0.75 and 1.5 lengths. He was beaten by Ballin Bay last time out, but is now 3lbs better off, so should give another good account of himself here.

CREAM OF THE WEST has yet to make the frame in three starts under Rules, but came closest last time out, when third of six, beaten by less than four lengths on heavy ground at Hexham on his return from a seven-month break. You'd expect him to be able to build upon that, but an opening mark of 97 on handicap debut is hardly lenient.

Instant Expert isn't as useful here as it normally is, but does suggest that but for probably needing the run, this race might have been well suited for Mount Melleray to make the frame...

Here Comes McCoy is sure to like the ground, as should Enemy At the Gate but he has struggled in this grade so far. Coral Blue is our sole track winner and gets this trip readily. Featured runner Enemy At The Gate has fared well in defeat over this distance too.

Looking back over previous similar races here at Ayr, we see that the further forward a horse has raced, the better the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win...

...and if we compare that data with our field's running styles in their last three outings (one runner only has three to compare, you see)...

...that would suggest that Cream of the West, Here Comes McCoy and Nowinittowinit might have a job on their hands.

Summary

Ballin Bay beat Enemy At The Gate last time out and even though he's worse off at the weights, I still think he'll maintain the advantage with the benefit of that run under his belt. Mount Melleray scored well on Instant Expert (place) and is likely to be up with the pace, but I just think he'll need the run here.

Coral Blue is a former course and distance winner, but would need to step up to win here and whilst he has every chance of making the frame, I don't think he's as good as Ballin Bay, so almost by default, Ballin Bay is my pick here.

He's currently (4.55pm) priced at 10/3 with bet365, as is Enemy At The Gate and they're probably very closely matched. Coral Blue is interestingly the 8/1 outsider and with bet365 paying three places, he might well be a useful E/W selection.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Queen of Ipanema must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Fakenham
  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 2.50 Wincanton

I do like to try and marry the daily feature with the free list where possible and today we're able to do so with Pilsdon Pen, who runs in the 2.50 Wincanton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over an extended 2m4f on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places...

Pilsdon Pen won here over course and distance last time out, making him the only one to have won his last outing. Hall Lane was a runner-up, whilst Harjo also made the frame, although he has yet to win any of his six races under Rules. Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen have all won two of their last seven, Hall Lane won five starts ago and Walk In The Wild won seven races back; he now sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Hall Lane and Pilsdon Pen both ran 26 days ago and their rivals have all raced in the last two months. Midnight Midge and Harlem Soul drop down a class here and Walk In the Wild steps up a level. Harjo is the only one of the six yet to win over a similar trip and three of his rivals (Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen) have won over course and distance, which leads us nicely into Instant Expert...

...where Hall Lane and Harjo look inexperienced, Midnight Midge looks like he might struggle, but Harlem Soul, Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild all looking well suited by conditions, especially Harlem Soul. A quick look at the place data from those above races doesn't suggest that Midnight Midge has been unlucky...

...but Hall Lane & Harjo's sole efforts carry promise. Our Pace Analyser suggests that we might want be on a horse keen to get on with things...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...would steer you more towards Walk In The Wild and Harjo as opposed to Harlem Soul and Hall Lane. The ground is soft in places and we should note that only Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild have any soft ground form.

Summary

I don't much like Midnight Midge from Instant Expert and Harlem Soul has been beaten by 68 and 34 lengths in his two starts this term. Hall Lane was second on his chase debut recently despite coming off the back of a 228-day absence and he had Prairie Wolf half a length behind him in third and this horse won a 12-runner, Class 4, 2m4½f handicap chase on good to soft ground at Doncaster last Friday, so that's promising, if he comes on for having had a run and if the form holds out.

Harjo has yet to win under Rules and although third LTO, he was beaten by some fourteen lengths on what was his chasing debut and 14 lengths is a big improvement to find especially as the runner-up that day has been well beaten twice since. Shortlisted horse Pilsdon Pen would be expected to go well again on soft-ish ground, but he's up 6lbs here in a tougher race than last time and can't call upon the services of regular rider Rex Dingle either. Walk In The Wild does have some soft ground form, will be up with the leaders and should be suited by conditions, whereas last time out he was undone by a longer trip on heavy ground.

It's a tricky/competitive race to call here (I wish I'd done the 5.00 Wolverhampton race now!) and none of these tick all the boxes. You could make a case for most if not all of them, but my mind tells me that Walk In The Wild's early (Hills at 3.50pm) 13/2 price offers me a bit more value than the 15/8 about Pilsdon Pen, who's definitely going to be involved.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.20 Taunton
  • 2.20 Naas
  • 3.40 Warwick
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!).  My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.45 Hexham
  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Exeter
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

Aside from a solitary Listed race at Kempton, the highest rated races in the UK on Wednesday are five Class 3 affairs. Our ten UK races above include four of those five Class 3 races and the most valuable of them is the 2.00 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard going polytrack...

Intervention was a winner here over 7f a week ago and having won at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier, now arrives her seeking a hat-trick of wins as he drops in trip. None of his rivals here even made the frame on their last outings, but Gulliver, Navello, Expert Agent, Count Otto, Buccabay and sole mare Cuban Breeze have all at least won inside their last six.

Five of the field are class movers today, as both Gulliver and Rousing Encore drop down from Class 2 after being well beaten, whilst Buccabay, Count Otto and Expert Agent all step up from Class 4, despite failing to shine last time out. The latter, Expert Agent, makes a yard debut for Stuart Williams, having left Kevin Foy during the eight weeks since his last run. Bosh is noted on the card as a fast finisher, but having lost his last eight races, he might be better off setting for home sooner!

Rocking Ends has been off the track for over five months and might well need the run, whilst most of the field have raced in the last month or so with Count Otto, Expert Agent, Rousing Encore and Bosh coming back after 6 to 10 weeks off.

Way To Dubai and Navello are the only ones yet to win at this trip, whilst Expert Agent and Count Otto are both course and distance winners. Rocking Ends (5f), Gulliver (7f) and Intervention (7f) have also tasted victory here at Lingfield, as shown by Instant Expert...

...which suggests Gulliver, Expert Agent, Count Otto and Intervention might be some of the main contenders to win here and the latter has made the frame in similar conditions on many occasions...

...as has Count Otto without being quite a prolific from a strike rate perspective.

Of the four who caught the eye from the win graphic, we have runners in stalls 1, 2, 7 and 12 of 12, so the pace/draw stats could make interesting reading, starting as usual with the details from our draw analyser...

...where over the last 150 or so similar contests, the best draw has been the low to mid-range with stalls 1 to 5 performing best according to the PRB3 graph...

...although stalls 6 & 7 still have a rating of 0.500 or higher. This would suggest that Gulliver and Intervention would have a slight advantage over Count Otto with Expert Agent the least well drawn, but not out of it by any means, as over 6f here at Lingfield much will depend on the approach taken to the race and our pace analyser says...

...that the further forward a horse has raced in those 150+ contests above, the greater the chance of a win/place. If we then look at the field's most recent efforts...

...I'd expect Buccabay and Rocking Ends to be up with the early pace with both Intervention and Cuban Breeze for company. Expert Agent ran prominently last time out, as he did when landing back to back course and distance wins in the spring, so I'd expect him to be further forward here too. Gulliver looks like having to pass the entire field to win here and I'm not sure he's that good. I know he won four races ago, but that win came after 28 successive defeats over a 35 month period, so he's hardly reliable.

Summary

Intervention is the one for me (and probably many others) here and whilst he's at the top of the market, I think his current (5.55pm) 9/2 odds are more than fair and I'd expect him to land the hat-trick here. Expert Agent (5/1)and Buccabay (13/2) might well be the ones to chase him home, but if I was to have a longer priced E/W pick, it would probably be the 10/1 Cuban Breeze, especially with firms paying four places. She's running pretty well right now on polytrack (213 in her last three), gets weight all round and if starting well, could surprise a few from a wider draw.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 2.52 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.45 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/12/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce five qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And from all of which, I'd say the best of the above races (on paper at any rate) for me to look at was the 3.00 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three miles on soft ground...

Huelgoat, Not Sure and Robyndzone all won last time out, whilst My Silver Lining and Animal were both runners- up. Only Planned Paradise is winless in six or more (nine to be precise!). Kapcorse has been off the track for 225 days now and might well need the run, although he does drop in class here. All his rivals have, however, had at least one run in the last month.

Via Dolorosa makes a yard debut for Sophie Leech and is up a class, as are Not Sure, Robyndzone and Animal, whilst top-weight Collectors Item wears cheekpieces for the first time. None of the field have won here at Sandown before, mind you just four have been here for a collective total of five runs with just one placed finish (Planned Paradise). As for the trip, that's a different story, as all bar Jet Plane, Huelgoat, Kapcorse and Planned Paradise have scored over s similar trip, and those who have won over fences at this distance are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where bottom-weight Planned Paradise looks arguably least suited to the task and Via Dolorosa might well be out of his depth at Class 3 from a win perspective, but he has made the frame in four of seven at this level...

...where Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone makes most appeal to me.

The pace stats from previous similar races look like this...

...an whilst there's not a great deal of data to work with, I think it's fair to suggest you want to be on a progressive type rather than one who is waited with. Based on their most recent outings...

...that would seem to steer us towards Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining.

Summary

Huelgoat, Not Sure, Robyndzone, My Silver Lining and Animal bring the best recent form to the table.
Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone mades most appeal to me from Instant Expert.
Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining were the takeaways from the pace stats.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining feature in all three lists and I fancy them to both make the frame here and possibly be the first two home. Of the others, Robyndzone also features three times, whilst Not Sure and Midnight Mary both feature twice.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining are currently (8.50pm UK time, 4.50pm here) both priced at 5/1. Not Sure is also 5/1 and that's too short for an E/W play for me, as is the 15/2 about Midnight Mary; she's a consistent placer, but I think the assessor has her held right now and I'd be wanting double digit odds about her.

I can, however, get 10's about Robyndzone, so he might not be a bad E/W bet after all.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

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Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/12/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Smith and Gincident would be of the most obvious immediate interest to me. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Southwell
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

I'll swerve Southwell for fear of a second successive abandonment for us and I'll head for the race starring Gincident, which is the highest rated of the races above. It is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

...and our ever informative cards show...

FORM : No LTO winners, but Woodstock City, Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl were placed, but the latter is winless in his recent form-line, as is Young Fire. Woodstock City, Queen of Ipanema, Gincident and Visibility have all won two from their last six.

CLASS : Talis Evolvere, Chantico and Young Fire all step up a class, whilst bottom-weight and fast-finishing Visibility is up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW? : Sceptic and Chantico both make debuts for their new yards and the former runs for the first time since wind surgery and the latter is denoted as a fast finisher. Woodstock City runs in handicap company for the first time and also makes a UK debut after 2 wins and 4 third places from ten runs in France.

LAST SEEN? : Most of these have had a run in the last four weeks, but Scepic has been off for eleven weeks and Woodstock City for three months. However, that's nothing compared to the layoffs of Chantico (227d) and Queen of Ipanema (242d) and this pair might well be feeling it in the closing stages if they go off quickly.

COURSE/DISTANCE WINS : Queen of Ipanema has won here over 1m1½f and 1m4f, but Gincident, Young Fire and Visibility are all former course and distance winners and all these course wins are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where, as you'd expect from The Shortlist, Gincident looks very well suited to the task in hand as do to a lesser extent, Sceptic and Queen of Ipanema. Young Fire looks like a blowout after plenty of attempts to get it right here, but Visibility looks interesting if not earth-shattering.

The corresponding place data from those races above looks like this...

...with only Young Fire and Visibility looking suspect. Young Fire does, of course, occupy stall 1, so let's check our Draw Analyser to see if that's usually a help or a hindrance...

Well, it appears that there's a very slight advantage to having a higher draw, but those drawn lowest make the frame more often, but again the advantage is very slight, so I'm going to say that none of these should lose this race purely because if which stall they emerge from.

The likelihood is that much will depend on how they emerge from those stalls and how they proceed to make their way home and our Pace Analyser suggests that you want to be on a prominent/leading runner...

...and the lack of obvious pace in this pack (based on their recent outings) might give an easy opening to Urban Sprawl...

He's not a front-runner by any means, of course, but regularly races prominently and regularly makes the frame by doing so.

Summary

Whilst winless in twelve (seven on the Flat followed by five on the A/W), Urban Sprawl's last five results (all on A/W) read 33243 and was a good third on his Wolverhampton debut last time out. He drops back a furlong here and I fancy him to make the frame again here.

That said, he's probably not the winner (he tends not to be) and that's more likely to be Talis Evolvere who ran weel to finish second over 7f here last time out, having led early on, but was outpaced in the later sprint for the line. The extra yardage should help here.

Unsurprisingly, these two head the market, but they're probably the best two in the race. My longshot who might outrun his odds is Young Fire, who looks better than an 18/1 shot and if a few falter, he could make the frame here.

Racing Insights, Monday 04/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.45 Plumpton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...none of which I fancy, sadly, so I'm going to look at the highest rated and most valuable race of the day, the 2.45 Plumpton, a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f (but nearer to 2m5½f after a 174yds rail adjustment) on good to soft ground...

The Height of Fame and A Tickatickatiming both won last time out and the latter has won to of her last four. All the Glory was a runner-up most recently and has won two from six with three runner-up finishes, so she's pretty consistent. Ilovethenightlife was pulled up on her last run but has won two from four. Iorens and Pretending are both winless over hurdles after four and six efforts respectively whilst Belles Benefit has won just once in nineteen attempts.

Belles Benefit's cause probably won't be helped by stepping up two classes either, as The Height of Fame, Pretending, All The Glory & A Tickatickatiming all step up one level with the last-named duo making their handicap debuts here. Top weight Ilovethenightlife actually drops down a class, leaving Iorens as the only one to have raced at this grade last time out, but that was some 277 days and she might well now need the run, especially as the others have all raced in the last seven weeks (five of them in the last two to four weeks).

A Tickatickatiming won here LTO over 2m four weeks ago and she's 2 from 3 here and is the only previous course winner in the field, whilst Ilovethenightlife's 2m5f win at Newbury and The Height of Fame's multiple 2m5½f successes are the only ones we've seen at this kind of trip. Instant Expert has these and other relevant stats, of course...

...where the standout stat is The Height of Fame's suitability for the trip. As mentioned, A Tickatickatiming goes weel here and has also won her sole effort on good to soft ground, unlike All The Glory who is only 1 from 8. Belles Benefit's win record at 2m4f to 2m6f is very poor and the following place stats aren't that encouraging for her either...

They do, however, present a very case for All The Glory making the frame even if her win records aren't good.

Today's feature is the PACE side of the equation and our Pace Analyser tells us we'd be best suited by backing a front-runner or prominent type...

Ideally we want a horse who scores 3 or more on our pace profiling and thankfully, by clicking the pace tab, we can see how this field usually runs and we have four horses with at least three scores of 3 or more in their last four outings...

...and these four would be the ones I'd look at firstly. That said, I don't think Belles Benefit is going to have much chance here, so I'd be taking All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame as my three against the field.

Summary

From All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame that I've taken from the pace stats, All The Glory has the best place record under these conditions, but doesn't win often enough. That said, she's available at 13/2 and that's a decent E/W option in my opinion, especially if your bookie is paying three places.

As for a winner, I think The Height of Fame edges it via a superior record at today's type of trip and she's currently the 3/1 fav. I'd expect her to beat A Tickatickatiming, whose own 5/1 ticket isn't long enough for me to consider an E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Kelso
  • 2.00 Hereford
  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 3.55 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...

Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.

Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.

All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.

Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...

...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.

Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.

Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.

With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...

...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.

He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...

...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...

...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.

Summary

My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.

Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.

He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.

Summary

From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.