Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fakenham
  • 2.55 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Kempton
  • 7.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two runners to consider...

30-day form..

5-year course form...

...from which, the highest-rated race is the 2.55 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Rambuso Creek is our only LTO winner, but Magnificence, Fantasy Master, Punchbowl Flyer and bottom-weight Impressor all had top-3 finishes, In fact, Impressor has made the frame in 11 of his last 12 starts, winning four times. Only Came From The Dark and Punchbowl Flyer are winless in seven or more (12 & 18 actually!)

Spoof, Woolhampton and Punchbowl Flyer are the quickest turned back out after racing against each other nine days ago in a race I covered here at Windsor, which went like this...

...but their rivals have all raced inside the last 40 days, so all should be tuned up for this. Those three from the Windsor race all now drop down a class, as do Came From The Dark and Strong Johnson, but Magnificence, Rambuso Creek and the consistent Impressor all all up a level.

Only Magnificence and Punchbowl Flyer have yet to win over this trip, whilst only Spoof and Fantasy Master have won here at Nottingham with both having scored over course and distance. Mind you, the latter has had a fair few cracks at this venue, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Spoof, Punchbowl Flyer and Impressor would be most at home with the underfoot conditions. Spoof, however, has a poor win record at Class 3, as do Fantasy Master and Ey Up It's Maggie, but none of this field have exactly set the world alight in this grade. Fantasy Master leads Spoof 3-1 in terms of track wins, but has suffered ten defeats here and he's hardly the master over 5f and nor is Woolhampton. With so little green above, I think we need to check place form from those races...

...which don't really aid the Class 3 claims of Spoof or Fantasy Master, whilst Punchbowl Flyer looks a win or nothing type at this level. Fantasy Master's course form, however, looks pretty good now with him making the frame in 4 of his 10 defeats to go with his 3 wins.

I generally don't expect to see much of a pace bias in a medium-sized field over a straight sprint and despite having to make some logical tweaks to the parameters to get a workable data-set, I still think that's there's no huge bias here either...

Yes, those drawn centrally have the slight upper hand in terms of wins, but has the same number of placed runners as the low draw. If anything, I'd say the higher drawn runners had whatever slight advantage there might be to be had. All that said, it's still a sprint and it's usually a case of fastest away has the best chance of making the frame and you can't win if you're not in the frame and if we look back those 90-odd races above, we see...

...that leaders make the frame most often and also go on to win a larger chunk of the races, which might be good news for both Impressor and Punchbowl Flyer from oposite ends of the draw, if they run like they ran last time out...

Obviously there's no guarantees that will happen, of course, but Punchbowl Flyer has lost 18 races in a row and almost broke that run by switching to front-running last time out when only beaten late on by a fairly short favourite. What I'm more certain of, is that Woolhampton, Came From The Dark and Rambuso Creek lack early pace and this could be an issue for them.

Summary

Punchbowl Flyer is on a long losing run, but ran really well last time out. He loves heavy ground, he's down in class and now runs off a dangerously low mark of 76. He's on my shortlist here along with former course and distance winner Fantasy Master, who might not have a great record at Class 3, but has a win and three places from just five efforts at Class 2. He loves it here at Nottingham and should be in the shake-up today.

These are the two I like best here and I suspect there'll not be much between them, but if pushed I'd take the 11/2 Punchbowl Flyer to just about beat the 7/1 Fantasy Master, who is pretty close to E/W territory for me., whilst I wouldn't be too surprised if the similarly 7/1 priced Spoof ran a big race here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I'm Spartacus, Goobinator and Cold Henry would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 12.20 Curragh
  • 2.25 Bangor
  • 3.30 Bangor
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

And from the two Newcastle races from the free list and the three highlighted shortlist races, we've got Class 4 and Class 5 flat handicaps and A/W handicaps at Class 5 and Class 6 plus a Class 5 Novice race. These are hardly the best races, but I'll go with the highest rated, which sees Goobinator line up in the 2.17 Catterick, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 1m4f on heavy ground...

GOOBINATOR won back to back 2m½f handicaps on quicker ground than this back in July/September 2021 and hasn't raced since finishing 5th of 12 over 2m½f at Haydock 17 months ago, so might well need the run here. He's 1 from 1 over 1m4f, but most of his running is done over 2m to 2m1f and I fear this might be too sharp for him today, but he is down two classes from that last run.

REEL ROSIE stayed on really well to land a heavy ground 1m2½f handicap at Chester at the end of September, but was well beaten on soft ground next/last time out a fortnight ago. She's relatively untested on ground worse than good (1 win from 3) with most of her racing (12 starts) on good or good to firm ground. Only female in the race.

DARK JEDI won over today's trip at Ripon back in 2021, but is winless in fourteen starts since landing a Class 2, heavy ground 1m6½f handicap at Doncaster just over a year ago. He now runs off a mark some 16lbs lower than that win and could well be dangerously handicapped here, although he's only a pound lower than when a runner-up beaten by 6.5 lengths over this course and distance 10 days ago, struggling late on.

ANIMATO was a runner-up over this trip at Pontefract three starts ago and was third of nine at York last time out over an extended 2m on soft ground. He's back down in trip here and takes a drop in class whilst wearing a visor for the first time

GENESIUS won over this trip at Thirsk on soft ground just over four months ago and has made the first three home on each of his last three outings, including once over course and distance. He wasn't well positioned at Wolverhampton last time out and had to squeeze through a gap to run on for third, going down by a length and a quarter. Would have been closer with a clearer run.

GASTRONOMY is a ten-race maiden who has made the frame just once and was last of 5 in a 1m6f, soft-ground handicap at this course just over five weeks ago. He has been eased three more pounds (now 10lbs lower than April!) here and wears a tongue tie for the first time, but I fear he'll need more help than that.

Instant Expert says...

...that half of the field are untried on heavy ground, but Reel Rosie & Dark Jedi have won on it. Goobinator is the pick of the pack at this grade, but four of them do have reasonable records. Dark Jedi probably has the best overall make-up based on place stats, but his actual win record a this trip is a concern.

To get enough workable data from the draw analyser, I've had to open up the parameters somewhat, but in a logical manner and whilst there's not a huge pace bias (as you'd expect over such a trip with a small field)...

...those drawn highest have had a slight advantage, although I suspect race tactics aka pace will be the deciding feature here, so let's check the pace analyser for those races above...

Leaders do as well as expected (A/E = 1.00), but the prominent runner looks the one to be on, possibly picking the winner off late on. What is clear is that a prominent runner is more than twice as likely to win than a runner from further back. The way these runners have approached their most recent outings...

...suggests that Reel Rosie might well be afforded a soft/easy lead with the rest of the field fairly well bunched together, but if we apply our field's draw and running styles to out pace/draw heat map...

...it looks like the three main protagonists might be Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi.

Summary

From the pace/draw heat map above we had Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi and the latter was the pick of the bunch on Instant Expert. He might well be on a long losing run, but ran well last time out and is off a dangerous mark. this looks a poor contest that shouldn't take too much winning, so I'll side with Dark Jedi here. He's the current 5/2 fav with Hills and that's probably fair.

The only runner higher than Reel Rosie's 7/1 ticket is the 20/1 Gastronomy and I don't really fancy either for a place, as I think the bookies have it right when they say it'll be tight between Genesius (7/2) and Animato (4/1) and this ties in well with our pace/draw heat map.

Racing Insights, Monday 30/10/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.15 Huntingdon
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 1.45 Galway
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 4.20 Leicester

...and the 'best' on paper of the trio of UK races above, looks like being the middle one, the 3.35 Huntingdon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

General Medrano and In The Air both won last time out and Rose Sea Has and Generous Day were both runners-up, although both have won one of their last five, whilst Sea Prince and Out On The Tear are winless in five and six respectively.

None of these ran at this grade last time out with all bar Sea Prince (who drops down from Class 2) stepping up a class from Class 4. There's no new headgear on show and no horses have moved yards recently. General Medrano and Rose Sea Has both have the benefit of a run three weeks ago, finishing 1st and 2nd nine lengths apart at Uttoxeter. Sea Prince ran two months ago, but the other three have all been off the track for over five months.

Relevant NH & specific chase form is highlighted via Instant Expert...

Despite, there being a fair bit of red on the going column, most of these do have some form on good to soft. Rose Sea Has appears to have struggled at Class 3, but all do have some wins/places at similar trips to this one. If we drill down to just chase form...

...we obviously have less data to work with and Rose Sea Has' Class 3 form is repeated here, but he'll be fine on good to soft ground. Out On The Tear is well suited by the trip, especially from a place perspective.

Monday's free feature is the PACE tab and our pace analyser tool says that horses who lead in small field, short distance Huntingdon chases are the ones to be with...

and by clicking the PACE tab, we can see how these horses have raced in their last four outings...

...it looks like the pace is going to come from Rose Sea Has, Generous Day and Sea Prince.

Summary

The odds on favourite General Medrano looks like being the horse to beat based on the way he comfortably won on his chasing debut three weeks ago, beating Rose Sea Has by nine lengths. The latter is now 9lbs better off with the winner and a similar run from him could get him closer this time.

The only other one with a relatively recent run is Sea Prince and although he drops in class here, he hasn't been in the best of form and I'm wary of backing the other trio who might well need the run.

General Medrano may well be the one to beat, but odds of 10/11 don't float my boat as my pockets aren't deep enough to make a bet worthwhile, so if I was to have a bet here, it'd be a small E/W play on Rose Sea Has, who trades at 15/2 in the very early market.

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Newbury
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.39 Kelso
  • 4.29 Kelso
  • 4.45 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

There's a card full of Class 2 races at Jumps HQ and whilst there are more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, I'm going to see if I can highlight any potential E/W bets (Bookies are paying 4 & 5 places) in the 2.25 Cheltenham, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1f (+88yds) on good/good to soft ground...

If we start with what the card tells us, we see that Quick Draw and Whacker Clan both won last time out and that Twig comes here seeking a hat-trick. He, like bottom-weight Swapped, has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings, whilst top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has twelve consecutive top-three finishes including seven wins, whereas Mister Fogpatches is winless in eleven and Yes Indeed is an eight-race maiden.

Hidden Heroics has had wind surgery since he last ran some 162 days ago, whilst Wayfinder has been off for 229 days and has also undergone a wind op during that time. Lord Accord won this race last year and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but Kinondo Kwetu, Twig, Brief Times, Undersupervision, Wayfinder, Snapped and Hidden Heroics have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere with the latter named being the only other previous Cheltenham winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap novice chase over 3m2f last December, as included below in Instant Expert...

Top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has never been to HQ before, but ticks plenty of boxes otherwise in a promising-looking graphic with quite a bit of green championing the causes of Twig, Lord Accord, Hidden Heroics, Wayfinder and Swapped. The Wolf is the one who looks least suited by expected conditions and we know that Yes Indeed has failed to win all eight career starts, but the graphic below says he does have some place form at least...

...but he's still way down my list of possibles that continues to be headed by Kinindo Kwetu. He tends to bide his time in mid-division to come for a late run and if we look at how the entire field have approached their last few races, I suspect the early pace will come from the likes of Hidden Heroics, Whacker Clan and Swapped...

There's no out and out hold-up horse on that graphic, but deeper digging says that those two recent prominent runs from The Wolf are out of character and he usually races in the rear, so he and Mister Fogpatches will probably be the early back-markers over a course and distance that doesn't really have a huge course bias...

...as we've all watched numerous Cheltenham Festival 3m+ chases and seen winners from the front, middle and back. Cheltenham is a true test in my opinion and those best suited to conditions are the ones who tend to do best.

Summary

With the lack of a draw in NH racing and little pace bias to work from, we revert back to form and ability/suitability to the task and the ones ticking the boxes for me in that respect are Kinondo Kwetu, Twig and Quick Draw with honourable mentions for the likes of Swapped.

In a big field like this, I tend to either not get involved or just look for some E/W action and with all bookies paying at least four places (5 at PP/Sky!), there should be some scope for us here. To be honest, I'd be happy to back all four on an E/W basis if the price was right.

Quick Draw is borderline at 15/2, but Kinondo Kwetu and Twig are priced at 12's and 9's respectively and this pair have got great chances in my eyes.

Swapped is completely unfancied by the market and you can get 33/1 for 5 places and whilst this is a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, his form over fences (21112) is excellent and he receives weight all round. It'd be a bit of a shock if he won, but he could well take a top five position if things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/10/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier, who'll hope to be on the right track (sorry!)...

...this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 3.55 Cheltenham
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 5.05 Cheltenham
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

My sole H4C report qualifier looks like being involved in a fairly competitive affair despite the low standard, so let's take a look at On The Right Track and the 7.15 Wolverhampton. It's a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners here, but featured runner On The Right Track has made the frame in three of his last four and is the only runner to have won any of their last seven starts (aside from Ezmerellda, who has only raced five times so far, failing to place in any). Elsewhere Doublethetrouble and Lord Torranga have been knocking on the door with a string of runner-up finishes, whilst Zivaniya also made the frame on his last outing.

He now drops down from Class 5, as do On The Right Track, Haven Lady and Eagle's Realm with bottom-weight Northern Rose dropping two classes for her second run in a handicap. She's one of four (Zivaniya, Ezmerellda & Corsican Caper being the other) three year olds in the field and they all receive a 7lb weight allowance for their age.

The majority of the field are wearing some form of headgear/equipment, but this is a first time in cheekpieces for the in-form Lord Torranaga who, like On The Right Track and Kittens Dream, is a former Wolverhampton winner with the latter being our only previous course and distance winner, although Lord Torranaga has won over 1m6f at Catterick.

No excuses for fitness today, as all have had at least two weeks rest, but none should be rusty either, as they've all raced in the last four weeks, whilst relative past form (courtesy of Instant Expert, of course) looks like this...

...which On The Track aside is a pretty bleak picture. Kittens Dream and Havens Lady have had the most attempts to put numbers on the board, but both seem totally unsuited to this task ahead, so I'm crossing their names off straightaway from a win perspective. The above graphic pretty much speaks for it self, but I should add that despite a 0 from 8 record at Class 6 on the A/W, Lord Torranaga has three wins and two further places from nine at Class 5 and as you'll now see below, has a 50% place strike rate in those eight Class 6 defeats...

...and he now looks a viable rival to On The Right Track. They'll race fairly close together in stalls 6 and 8 of 10 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn highest in the past...

..but those races haven't been particularly kind to front-runners...

...which looks like being another blow to Haven Lady's chances if the last three races are anything to go by...

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the draw stats, the two I'd want to be with would be On The Right Track, who is proven at this venue, and Lord Torranaga who has been banging on the door for some time. The pace stats have done little to dissuade me from this position and I'm sticking with those two.

I suspect there'll be very little between them and I'd expect both to be priced around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark in a fairly open market and if pushed to pick a winner, I'm going to marginally side with my H4C report runner On the Right Track.

Without any prices to go at, it's hard to suggest an E/W punt, but I'd expect Doublethetrouble to continue his recent fine form and be the main danger to the other two.

Racing Insights, Thursday 26/10/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.05 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.11 Ludlow
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The highest rated of those four that have survived the weather is the 3.20 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

Only three of this field, Malangen, Thereisnodoubt and Well Educated have had the benefit of a relatively recent run, but the rest of the field have been out of action for 124 to 598 days. Thereisnodoubt is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Well Educated and Russian Virtue were both in the frame on their last outings.

Well Educated, however, is the only runner in the field without a win in their last three races, as he has been beaten in each of his last eight starts since a purple patch from April to October last year which saw him finish 1213111, elevating his mark from 98 to 118. He now runs off 100, so it's form rather than weight keeping him out of the winners' enclosure, I'd have thought.

That last win of his was in this very race making him the sole course (and course/distance) winner in this field, whilst all bar Gardener, Golden Glance and Holly have scored over a similar trip elsewhere. Of that trio yet to win at the trip, Gardener and Golden Glance now run in a handicap for only the second time and the latter drops two classes to run here, whilst the former is up a level, as are Grain D'Oudairies (handicap debut today), Russian Virtue and LTO heavy-ground winner Thereisnodoubt.

Thereisnodoubt has actually won 3 times from 8 starts on heavy ground and has made the frame in 2 of his 5 defeats, but Instant Expert suggests today's going might not be soft enough for him...

...and Voix de Reve also looks unsuited by the underfoot conditions. Russian Virtue looks to be the one who'll relish good to soft/soft ground the most with a 50% win record, but Moonlight Glory will prefer it to dry a little whilst Malangen would want more rain. Well Educated's sole Class 3 win came in this race last year and Malangen is winless in five, but most of them to have tackled the trip have done OK. Only Well Educated runs off a lower mark than their last handicap success.

The place stats to go with those races above look like this...

...where quite a few of them will want the ground to soften up further and on the basis of the above, Russian Virtue has to be of interest for the frame whilst Voix du Reve looks the weakest.

Previous similar races in the past here at Carlisle have seen those setting the pace do quite well, but they have sometimes been vulnerable to being picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners in the past...

...but anywhere in the upper reaches of the pace chart would be a good starting point in my opinion and based on the field's recent runs...

...LTO winner Thereisnodoubt looks set to contest the early lead with Gardener, whilst the hold-up tactics generally employed by Voix du Reve would appear to be yet another nail in the coffin for his chances of winning here.

Summary

If we start with the pace chart, Thereisnodoubt won last time out and has had a recent run. He'd definitely prefer softer ground, but it has been wet in the North again today. Gardener was well beaten on his handicap debut nine months ago and hasn't been seen since.

Jante Law is certain to need a run after 598 days off, I know he won his penultimate outing, but that was some 30 months ago, having unseated his rider on his sole run last year. Malangen is a consistent enough sort off marks in the high 80's to low/mid 90's, but looks to be carrying too much here off 100.

Grain D'Oudairies won on hurdles debut, before tiring late on in a 2m3½f contest here at Carlisle back in April. The drop in trip should help him and after just three career outings (1 x NHF, 2 x Hrd), he's certainly unexposed and Well Educated won this race last last year from his usual mid-division/prominent running position. He was in great form this time last year, but had toiled since then until a drop in mark of late saw him make the frame at Bangor and Cartmel in August.

Of those mentioned above, I'm not really interested in Gardener, Jante Law or Malangen, but that still leaves three under consideration plus Russian Virtue due to his Instant Expert scores.

I do like Thereisnodoubt, but I've concerns about the going and a 4lb rise in weight and with that in mind, I don't think 11/2 offers much value. Grain D'Oudairies is the current favourite at 10/3 with Bet365 (just 11/4 with Hills) and whilst he might well be the one to beat, he's unproven and the price is too skinny for me.

As for Russian Virtue and Well Educated, they are both currently available at 12's and I think that a small E/W bet on either (or both) would be my way forward here. I'm not convinced either have what's needed to win this, but both are more than capable of making the frame, especially with Betfred, Coral & Sky paying four places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Worcester
  • 3.45 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.28 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted Charlie Appleby's record at HQ over the last 5 years and he runs a trio there on Wednesday...

...of which one runs in one of our free races, so let's have a closer look at Mountain Song and the 4.10 Newmarket in general. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat race over a straight mile on soft ground...

Karmology is our sole LTO winner and she's unbeaten in her two starts so far. Zouzanna (a winner in two of her last five), Orzo (won on debut), Prisha (won two starts ago) and Bint Al Daar ( a win and three places from her last five) were all in the frame on their last outings; Rocha Do Leao is the only one yet to win.

Many of these are short on handicap experience and this is just a second effort for both Rocha Do Leao and Prisha, whilst it's handicap debut day for Orzo and hat-trick seeking Karmology. Just two of this field, Morning Poem and Orzo are older than 3 yrs old, so they're technically 3lbs worse off at the weights and the former is now blinkered for the first time, but she does drop down a class here.

She's the only class dropper, as Rocha Do Leao, Prisha and Bint Al Daar all step up a level, whilst Karmology and Orzo are both up two classes. The latter is one of just two (along with Rocha Do Leao) yet to win over a mile. We've no previous course winners, but the field haven't been here that often. Most of them have had an outing in the last month or so and Prisha raced just over seven weeks ago, but featured runner Mountain Song has been off the track for nearly fifteen weeks and Orzo might well beed the run after a 28-week break.

Past form under today's conditions is brought to you by Instant Expert, as usual...

That was always going to look a little sparse with nine runners sharing just fifty-four previous outings, but it's good to see that Choisya has a Class 3 Flat win and she gets the trip. She is, however, 6lbs above her last winning mark and Morning Poem is 7lbs above here. No real causes for alarm here, but Bint Al Daar's record over the trip isn't the best, but the graphic below suggests that she's a regular placer...

...and aside from not having raced in this grade, her place credentials are the best on offer as her Flat form reads 3361322. She did win over a mile here on the July course in August, but is now 8lbs higher that that win, which is probably why she's not winning! Her soft ground form might well be the key here, though. She'll run from stall 3 of 9 here and over a straight mile, you wouldn't expect much of a draw bias, but previous similar races seem to have favoured those drawn higher...

...but I still suspect that pace will be the key here and those races above have been won by a bigger percentage of front-runners/leaders than any other running style...

...although horses racing in mid-division seem to come strong late on to make the frame. This apparent bias towards those willing to take it on early looks like good news for three or four of this field based on recent outings...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with the ideal scenario being the high-drawn leader. Choisya and Karmology look like being the front runners and although stalls 5 and 6 aren't exactly high, the latter is only one berth away from the optimum combination.

Summary

I'll be honest and admit that I'm still a little sceptical about draw bias on a straight track and I'll virtually always veer towards pace as my helper in these situations and as the graphic above shows, there are four best suited by the pace here; Karmology, Choisya, Mountain Song and Orzo and they occupy stalls 4 to 7, so at least none are exactly drawn low.

It's these four that I want as my shortlist, even if Bint Al Daar's place record is excellent. I don't fancy her to win here and at 7/1 I can't back her E/W, although I would be tempted if she drifts.

As for the winner here, Karmology is the horse in form and whilst it's easy to just back the 7/2 fav, I do think she'll go on to win this. the others in that trio are priced at 6/1, 11/2 and 6/1, so that shows how tight this might be and I won't be backing any of them E/W. Again, like Bint Al Daar, I want at least 8's to get involved.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.30 Exeter
  • 3.10 Hereford
  • 4.00 Exeter
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And as one of my runners from The Shortlist is in one of our free races, I think we should look at Ajp Kingdom and his rivals in the 4.00 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m7f on good ground...

Bottom weight Oceanline and The Imposter both won last time out and the latter has won his last three and has six wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both three-race maidens, whilst Royal Pretender and Moka de Vassy are winless in eight and ten races respectively; the former does place regularly though, but the latter is now 0 from 10!

Plenty of these are moving class here with Itso Fury, Go Chique, Ajp Kingdom and Brave Starlight all dropping in from Class 2, whilst the ten-race maiden Moka de Vassy, Goshhowposh and the form horse The Impostor all step up from Class 4.

Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both making handicap debuts here today after breaks of 297 and 144 days respectively, but others are returning from layoffs too, as Exmoor Forest, Itso Fury, The Imposter and Royal Pretender have been rested for 165, 199, 20 and 325 days themselves. The other five in the race have all been out in the last six weeks, though.

None of the field have won here at Exeter before, but only three have been here in a total of five races and whilst we also have no 2m7f winners, Ajp Kingdom, Gentleman Valley, Go Chique and The Imposter have all won at both 2m7½f and 3m.

Instant Expert says that this bunch haven't fared too well at this grade and we already know about the lack of course wins...

...but if we're looking at going and distance, then Itso Fury, Gentleman Valley and Ajp Kingdom are the eyecatchers with honourable mentions for Go Chique and The Imposter. Royal Pretender has failed to win any of eight starts at Class 3, but he hasn't struggled in all of them, as the place stats will show...

...in fact his place credentials look pretty good there and he's probably second best on numbers behind Itso Fury.

When it comes to judging the pace of the contest, previous similar races here at Exeter haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

...but thankfully none of these are out and out hold-up types, according to their last few runs...

I'd expect The Imposter and Ajp Kingdom to try to control the race from the front, but they probably won't be able to break clear from a group where all runners bar Goshhowposh have led/ran prominently in at least one of their last four outings and I think we're going to have a fairly tight bunch travelling together.

Summary

This looks a really tight/open race with plenty holding chances. So much so that the early Hills prices for this race only ranged from 6/1 to 12/1 for the whole field and it looks a tough one to call. Personally, I like The Imposter's form and he's very game, I also like the way Itso Fury scored well in the analysis, whilst Ajp Kingdom's place on The Shortlist must stand him in good stead.

Gentleman Valley also scored well on Instant Expert and E/W bettors have done well out of Royal Pretender, who has placed in 8 of his 13 starts over hurdles.

You really could make a case for most of these to put a decent effort in, but the five above would be the ones that interest me most. If pushed to pick a winner, I think I'd go with Itso Fury at 6/1 ahead of he similarly priced The Imposter. As you know I only like to play the E/W markets if I can get 8/1 or bigger, but both Gentleman Valley and Royal Pretender are offered at 10's, so they're options, especially with Betfred, Coral & Skybet all paying four places.

That said, it's not a race to put too much money on, but it could be an interesting watch.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 23/10/23

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It was a good end to the week with the 11/2 Vintage Clarets winning for us at Catterick and with our E/W pick Glorious Angel finishing second, I'm glad a few of you got on. Those who also followed my suggestion that Count D'Orsay could also make the frame were rewarded with a 3rd place run at 16/1. Thanks to all of you who emailed to say that like me, you backed all three and had a nice payout. The tricast was a huge 700/1, but sadly I wasn't on that!

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.00 Pontefract
  • 2.55 Windsor
  • 5.15 Plumpton
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 6.40 Wolverhampton

...from which we're staying on the Flat where we've racing's extremes in terms of going and trip for the 2.55 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Our sole LTO winner Spoof has won 3 of his last 8, Korker won two starts ago, Chipstead won six ago and Executive Decision is two from four, but unplaced in her last two. Navello also failed to place in his last two, but is two from five, whilst Woolhampton has placed but not won in each of her last three, but did win six races ago. Crimson Sand has been a runner-up in three of seven but hasn't won in 13, whilst bottom weight Punchbowl Flyer brings the worst form to the table, having failed to make the frame in his last 17 races since winning at Windsor way back in June 2021!

Punchbowl Flyer's seemingly lost cause won't be helped by having to step up a class here as does LTO winner Spoof, nor will a two class rise help Crimson Sand's prospects, but the top two in the weights, the in-form Korker and Chipstead, both drop down from Listed class, where they were second (beaten by a neck) and fifth (3L) behind Emaraaty Ana at Ascot sixteen days ago in a race I covered here. So, they both ran 16 days ago and all bar Navello (44 days) and Crimson Sand (189 days) of this field have been in action this month; the latter might well need the run and is probably another nail in the coffin for his chances.

All bar Executive Decision and Punchbowl Flyer have already won over today's trip, but the latter's three wins from 4 over 6f on this track make him, just one of two course winners alongside Spoof who has three wins and three places from nine efforts over course and distance and those course wins are highlighted in Instant Expert...

...where he certainly looks the one to beat, although class-dropping Chipstead has good numbers too. Punchbowl Flyer looks interesting on that graphic, especially off a mark 22lbs below his last win, but as I pointed out earlier, that win was in June 2021 and he hasn't even made the frame in 17 races since. Speaking of making the frame, here's the place data from those races above...

...which pushes the place claims of Chipstead even more. Woolhampton is an interesting sort with a terrible win record across the board under today's conditions, but a regular placer, She has only won one of seventeen on the Flat, but has made the frame on eight occasions. There's no reason to suggest she can't place again here, but I'm wary of backing 1 in 17 types to go on to win. She is drawn lowest of all in stall 1, though and based on past races here at Windsor, that represents her best chances of success today...

...although I wouldn't ever rule any horse out of it based purely on the draw over a straight run. You'll notice that I've had to make some logical tweaks to the parameters above in order to get myself a workable sample size, so we do need to take the data with an element of trust, but if we proceed as it stands, the lower draw looks favourable. That said, it's a straight five and I'm convinced that feature of the day, PACE, should take centre stage, so let's see how those nearly 100 races were won...

...and that's pretty conclusive to me. You need to get out quick and stay out, coming from off the pace is tricky here at Windsor, especially in tricky conditions and the above data is verified by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at how this field have approached their last few outings and overlay this data onto the heat map, we get something like this...

...which sadly displays a distinct lack of early pace. However only Spoof has avoided being a hold-up horse of late and Chipstead and Crimson Sand were both prominent last time out.

Summary

Spoof is the course (course & distance specialist) and doesn't tend to be held up, so he's in the frame here. I also think that he's one of the better horses here. Chipstead is interesting from a place perspective and has scored well through my analysis, but doesn't win here in my eyes, as he's held by Korker from last time, which puts Korker on my possibles list too!

I actually prefer Korker to Spoof in terms of quality and the assessor rates him as 9lbs better too, but he's carrying 9-9 on heavy ground, has never run on heavy before and if he's coming from off the pace, it could be tough. I'd rather Korker beat Spoof, but I fear they'll finish the other way around. Either way, I agree with the early market that these two are the ones to beat at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively. Spoof is the course and distance specialist and is proven on heavy ground. he won last time out and he's my marginal pick at 3's today. (I think!)

Eleswhere, Chipstead is only 5/1, so I won't be going E/W there and with only Navello (9/1), Punchbowl Flyer (22/1) and Crimson Sand (28/1) longer than 6/1, there's not much scope for an E/W option for me. Navello would be the one, but I think I'd be wanting at least 12 to 14's if not bigger!

Racing Insights, Saturday 21/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated these qualifiers for me to consider...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 3.35 Newton Abbot
  • 4.08 Market Rasen
  • 4.21 Limerick
  • 4.45 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...and I think we'll have a look at Bergerac and the 3.40 Catterick today. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

The top two in the weights, Vintage Clarets and Wen Moon, both won last time out and Glorious Angel was a runner-up (in a race we covered here on Insights), but Vintage Clarets win was at this grade, whilst the other two are both up a class, as are Strong Johnson, Never Dark, Copper Knight, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay!

Manila Scouse and Bergerac did run at Class 2 last time though, but bottom weight Zargun is up two classes despite not winning any of his last 16 outings; Bergerac and Count D'Orsay are winless in eight and nine respectively.

All of these have had at least one run in the last four weeks with most having raced last Friday at York finishing 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th, whilst Bergerac was withdrawn...

Zargun may well be out of form right now, but he won this race two years ago, making him one of four course and distance winners along with Manila Scouse, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay, who won this race four years ago. None of the others have won here at Catterick, but all bar Bergerac have won over today's trip; his 'best' form has been over 6f so far and his failures at 5f are highlighted by Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Wen Moon and Never Dark will be much more at home on soft ground than the likes of Manila Scouse and Zargun, whilst most of these have toiled in this grade. Copper Knight is easily the most experienced here and has clocked up 10 wins from his 58 efforts at Class 2, which is a respectable 17.24% SR. Aside from Wen Moon's small number of qualifying runs above, there's not a great deal to shout about here, so let's check the place stats from those races...

...where Wen Moon and Manila Scouse have the best numbers and with no green for place form in any of going, class, course or distance, I'm happy to discount the claims of Bergerac, Never Dark, Copper Knight and Strong Johnson, who come from stalls 4, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias at all, it favours those drawn lowest!

Sadly for me and my reckoning, that's not the case...

...but that doesn't mean we can't still be on the right track. At the end of the day, it's a 5f dash over a straight track and there really shouldn't be massive advantages from a particular stall and it's generally pace that wins the race over the minimum trip and here at Catterick, those 30-odd races above back up my theory...

...and this is backed up by the three best pace/draw combo positions all being taken by horses who led...

...and based on recent performances, this could mean another big run from Glorious Angel. She was in a race we covered last week and was only headed very late on, going down by a neck and looking at her last four runs, I suspect she'll attempt to make all here again...

...which gives us the following heat map...

Summary

From our pace/draw heat map, Glorious Angel looks to have a great chance of at least making the frame and at an early price of 9/1, I'd be inclined to have a small E/W bet on her. She has been the runner-up in three of her last five, but is on a long losing run, so for me Wen Moon and Vintage Claret are the ones to beat.

The latter doesn't look too good on that heat map, but raced prominently last time and beat Wen Moon by a neck in a big-field £30k handicap at York. He's actually 3lbs better off with the runner-up here, so with a similar approach in this race, I'd take the 4/1 Vintage Clarets to beat the 3/1 Wen Moon.

Glorious Angel is the E/W pick, of course, but Count D'Orsay might well be dangerously overpriced at 12/1 and with quite a few firms paying four places...

 

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Thursday 19/10/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 3.55 Brighton
  • 4.20 Wincanton
  • 4.45 Carlisle
  • 5.10 Thurles

...and the highest rated of the four UK races is the 3.35 Carlisle, 12-runners, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m½f on good ground...

Wasdell Dundalk is the only runner in the field to have won last time out and he comes here on the back of three straight wins over a similar trip to this one (all at Perth). Guetapan Collonges, The Kniphand and Ned tanner have all also won at least two of their last five outings, whilst only Morning Spirit is without a win in five.

Only Silver in Disguise and Ned Tanner ran at Class 3 last time around as Morning Spirit, The Kniphand, Dallas des Pictons and in-form Wasdell Dundalk all drop down a class, whilst joint top weights Gueatpan Collonges and Mexico both drop two classes, as does Your Own Story. Conversely Giovanni Change, East Street and bottom weight Court Dreaming are all up one class.

Most of the field are running after four to seven months off the track, but Wasdell Dundalk, Dallas des Pictons and Giovanni Change have been seen more recently at 22, 29 and 71 days respectively.

All bar Mexico, Giovanni Change and Ned tanner have won over a similar trip, whilst Morning Spirit and Court Dreaming have both won over course and distance. Your Own Story has also won here at Carlisle in the past, landing a 3m1½f Novice Hurdle in March '22.

Other relative/collateral form is shown here in Instant Expert...

...where the in-form and class-dropping Wasdell Dundalk catches the eye, especially as only he and Guetapan Collonges have won at Class 2. He is, of course, up 6lbs for his most recent win, but he did win by 14 lengths without exerting himself and the runner-up has made the frame at Class 2 again since. The place stats from those races above look like this...

...with honourable mentions going to Your Own Story and Ned Tanner amongst others. Wasdell Dundalk's last three runs/wins have come from racing further down the field and if this group race as they have done in their last few outings, then I suspect that the early pace would come from Giovanni Change and Dallas des Pictons...

...and that probably represents their best chance of getting something from the races, as past similar contests here suited front-running types...

Summary

His recent pace profile suggests he might struggle here, but everything else points to Wasdell Dundalk for me. He's in-form, down in class, hasn't been massively punished for a cosy win three weeks ago, won't need the run to clear his pipes and was the standout on Instant Expert. 1 in 16 hold-up horses win here at Carlisle, he might just be that one and at an early price of 7/1, he'd be the one for me. In fact that's almost E/W odds territory and with most firms paying four places, you could well play it safe.

As for an E/W bet for four places, I'd want a double-digit odds runner and that currently only gives me five runners to go at, but of the five longest-priced runners, the 10/1 Ned Tanner would be the one I think could make the frame.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 16/10/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.45 Windsor
  • 3.50 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Musselburgh
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

The highest rated of the UK races above also has an interesting pace profile, so that's where I'm headed. The race itself is the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good/good to soft ground. The card looks like this...

...whilst the average pace profile of the runners based on their last four outings suggests that Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 might well set the tempo of the contest...

The latter of that pair is the only LTO winner in the field, having finally got her nose in front after three successive runner-up finishes. She'd actually made the frame in seven of eight races before that resounding six length victory at Carlisle a month ago, making her the form horse in the pack. Elsewhere, only Glorious Angel and Rock Melody are winless in seven or more, whilst Sibyl Charm is a five-race maiden.

That said, it won't be as easy for Mubhijah here, as she's up two classes here, whilst Shades of Summer, Mersea and Lady Mojito all step up one level. Conversely, the top two in the weights, Kitai and Glorious Angel both drop down a class and bottom weight Biplane is down two classes after running in a Listed event at Redcar nine days ago. That gap from her last race is the same as Mersea's nine-day break and they're the two turned back out quickest.

Most of the field have, in fairness, raced in the last month or so, but Lady Mojito has been off for two months and Sibyl Charm hasn't raced for almost fifteen weeks, during which she has moved from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard and now makes a debut for Iain Jardine, whilst Rock Melody wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Sibyl Charm is, of course, still a maiden so obviously has no wins at neither trip nor track and Kitai, Mubhijah and Mersea have also yet to win over this distance, whilst Rock Melody is the sole previous Musselburgh winner, having raced here five times already, all over 5f, finishing 43112.

Whilst this is a 3yo+ race, only three of the field (Shades of Summer, Rock Melody & Biplane) are actually older than three and as a result are 2lbs worse off at the weights, due to the 3yo weight for age allowance afforded to the other half dozen.

Instant Expert says that none of these are perfect standout candidates, but that Kitai might well enjoy the expected conditions...

...although she is 5lbs higher than her last win. Glorious Angel seems to have struggled to win on similar going with a similar story for Rock Melody on both Class and trip, whilst the place data for the field looks like this...

...where I still have concerns about both Glorious Angel and Rock Melody over today's trip. The former is expected to be one of the pacemakers according tot he average pace profile I posted earlier and she's drawn low here in stall 2, but I don't expect her draw to give her any advantage or disadvantage, based on how over 100 past similar contests have gone...

...which leads us back to where we started and the daily feature, the Pace tab. I showed you that the average pace profile over four races for this field looked like this...

...and that prediction is based on the following...

...and those individual races suggest that both Lady Mojito and Sibyl Charm might actually race a little further back than their average indicated, giving the top two on the chart an almost free run early on, so let's check how those 100+ races (that we used for the draw stats) above have gone re: pace...

...and that's pretty clear, isn't it?

Summary

Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 look like being handed a soft early opportunity to dictate events from the front and the latter is definitely the form horse irrespective of a two-step up in class and Mubhijah would be my one to beat here. I'm not surprised that she's the early 5/2 favourite. That price isn't particularly generous, but it's probably about right, all things considered.

Glorious Angel should be able to hang on for a place, but at 11/2 isn't the kind of price I place E/W bets at, but I expect her to be in the mix. Elsewhere I like the look of Kitai and Mersea and with them being priced up at 4/1 and 9/1 with Hills, the latter would be the one I'd consider for a small E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Ludlow
  • 4.57 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Sedgefield
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following on 14-day form...

and for 30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all the races listed above from both the 'free' list and the report qualifiers, the highest rated is the 5.05 Ludlow, where the in-form Twiston-Davies yard send Topofthecotswolds to take on 5 rivals in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles on good ground...

BACK ON THE LASH was third in a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham last November, before winning there over the cross country fences in January. Was subsequently pulled up at this year's Festival there and also in the Grand National at Aintree since but he's now down two classes and back to his last winning mark after a six month break. He's 3 from 3 here at Ludlow including a win over course and distance.

LE CAMELEON won a Class 3 handicap chase here over course and distance in March and was then third here a month later before signing off with another similar result at Kempton. Has been off for nearly six months and has undergone wind surgery in that time, but won this time last year after an equally long absence..

QUICK DRAW also comes back from a six month break and was in fine form last winter finishing 211P3, a poor run at Kempton aside. Yet to win over this trip over fences, but did so over hurdles at Uttoxeter in December 2021. Yard and jockey have good records here.

TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS hasn't won any of seven outings since scoring here over 3m2f almost a year ago, but hadn't been running terribly before finishing last of six, beaten by 40 lengths at Worcester last month which is a worry. That said, yard and jockey are both in good form and that last win here was off a mark 2lbs higher than his current one and he does drop in class.

JUDGE EARLE is the veteran of the field at 11 yrs of age and was in good form in the summer finishing 112 during July/August. Sadly that took his mark from 105 to 125 and that looked too much for him as he was only 4th of 6 last time out. He's eased a pound here, but needs more help that that in my opinion. Won over this trip at Uttoxeter and now visits Ludlow for the first time.

VOLCANO is 6 from 26 over fences, which is reasonable enough, but 5 of those wins came from 6 outings at Warwick leaving him just 1 from 20 elsewhere! That 1 win did, however, come from 7 previous visits here at Ludlow over course and distance almost three years ago. Hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Ffos Las six months ago and will probably need the run as all six career wins have come within 23 days of his previous run.

Instant Expert suggests Back On The Lash will be best suited by forecasted conditions...

...whilst featured runner Topofthecotswolds has really good place form...

If the field's past few races are anything to go by, then I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters...

...which, based on past races here at Ludlow, would seem to represent their best chances of doing well today...

Summary

Pacemakers do well here at Ludlow and I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters. Sadly the latter looks like he's too high in the weights to win and the latter saves his best form for Warwick and will probably also need the run.

Next in line on the pace chart is Back On The Lash, who is down in class and back on his last winning mark. He scored best on Instant Expert too and he'll be well poised to take over from the leaders as they tire. We're not getting rich here, but at 3/1 (Bet365) Back On The Lash would be my pick of the pack.

Le Cameleon returns from a break and wind surgery and I tend not to back horses immediately after wind ops, which leaves me with Topofthecotswolds and Quick Draw.

The latter has excellent place stats over similar conditions, but is still higher than his last winning mark and hasn't been in great form of alter, despite how well his yard are going. Quick Draw, however, was going well at the end of his last campaign and his yard/jockey fare well at this venue. There might not be much to choose between this pair in the end, but the latter is the 9/4 fav with Hills. Bet365 offer 11/1 about Topofthecotswolds and whilst he might need things to fall his way to make the frame, that might not be a bad E/W bet for small change.