Tag Archive for: Southwell

Roving Reports: Compare and Contrast

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First of all, an apology; it's been well over two months since the last of these course missives which is very slack of me, writes David Massey. So I'd like to apologise to Geegeez readers for this tardiness, and to our dear leader, Matt, who I bumped into at the recent HWPA awards. It was good to see the Racing Post win an award or two, they barely win anything, do they? Anyway, I was two seats down from Jeremy Kyle and you'll be delighted to hear he's every bit as entertaining away from the telly as off it. Read what you like into that.

The reason for all this dither and delay, as Boris might have said before he vanished, is simple. I am, of course, in the process of setting up and getting Trackside off the ground alongside my new work-wife Vicki and, frankly, she's very demanding. (Not like that, you filthy lot. Get your minds out the gutter.) The last three months have been something of a whirlwind - if I'm not at a fixture doing paddock reporting then there's notes to type up, or Vicki's cracking the admin whip at me, which is very disconcerting.

I'm not really very business minded, see. A couple of weeks ago a well-known bookmaker's rep offered me a fresh account in exchange for the Trackside services. I was all for it - who wouldn't be, eh? - before Vicki stepped in at the last minute and demanded a five-figure sum instead. See what I mean? I was ready to trade for some magic beans but no, she is insistent people pay actual money for our services. Spoils all my fun, she does.

Anyway, you don't want to know all about that. I'll deal with her as we go along. What you want to know about is where I've been and what I've seen.

Well, as I suspected might be the case, leaving the rails behind and seeing more of the actual courses does offer pause for reflection. I've been to Cheltenham twice already this year, for the October and November meetings. On the plus side, getting your 10,000 steps a day in is easy, but getting around, less so.

It's very much the Insta generation at Cheltenham these days, I'm finding. A race will be in progress but that's taking second place to showing others what a great time you're having by constantly taking selfies, ideally with the course in the background. We're told they're engaging with it all, but the number of times I hear people cheering for a number, not a name, rather suggests otherwise. Perhaps I'm old and wizened (no, really) but if you're gonna shout for something, shout for your horse, or the jockey, not the saddlecloth.

In the interests of some balance, I do think the Invades student days, which seem to be very well run, are a good thing. If you get 5000 students in and take a 10% retention rate, that's 500 you've got coming back another day when it isn't a student day. That's how we build the future, I think.

I contrast that to Wetherby and Charlie Hall Chase Day. Whilst they were in the paddock and walking round for the main event,  they were showing the big race from Down Royal on the screen next to the parade ring. Every pair of eyes was transfixed as little Hewick led them a merry dance, cat-like at every fence, and by the time we have reached two out, the crowd at Wetherby was clearly on his side. Envoi Allen joins him at the last but like the terrier he is he won't lie down, and he's getting every encouragement from Yorkshire to stick his head back in front. The disappointment when he fails by half a length to get back up can literally be heard in a collective sigh from the crowd, but that's swiftly followed by people chattering to each other about what a great race they've just witnessed. Engagement? By the truckload, if you ask me.

Anyway, wasn't it great to see The Real Whacker bounce back to form? He looked an absolute picture beforehand, the best I'd seen him for some while. I suspect there's another big race in him before the season is out.

We've even had a glimpse of the Insta mob at Southwell this autumn. No, really. We had a Ladies Evening there on a Saturday night a few weeks back and the fairly youngish crowd were in full selfie mode. One young lady had a £2 bet, came back up ten minutes later and asked if she'd won. I told her the race hadn't started yet. "OH, WHY DOES HORSE RACING TAKE SO LONG?" she exclaimed. I told her she should be here on a Monday night in January when time literally goes backwards. You have a few races, think it's about half seven, look at your watch and realise it's only just gone five. Now those are long.

I've had my first visit to Ludlow this season too. Like Fakenham, Ludlow is hours from anywhere in the UK and you stumble on the track almost by accident if you take the back way via Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympic Games. (Yes it is, Google it.) The first you know about it is when the car suddenly starts going sideways. There's nothing wrong with your car, you're merely driving over one of the huge mats they have on the road crossings, and the vehicle turns into a giant steerable crab. Great fun. If you've not been to Ludlow, you should - decent racing, good grub you aren't charged a fortune for, one of the best rooftop views in the game, and a blue phone booth with The Rules Of Racing in it. It's worth the long drive. Just don't do that and then Fakenham the next day.

The good lady and I have also made our yearly excursion to the West Country to enjoy the Haldon Gold Cup/Badger Beer double-header. It was a real shame Exeter's card cut up so badly on the day but we did get to see one of our favourite horses in training, the wonderful JPR One, win the big race. He's just a gorgeous horse to look at, always full of enthusiasm for the game, and he does look to have come on again physically from last year. He ran again at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and was far from disgraced in finishing third to Jonbon, and with Djelo, second at Exeter, winning the Peterborough Chase the next day, that looks a solid piece of form now.

The drive to Wincanton on the Saturday takes us through one of the best-named villages in England, the wonderful Queen Camel. I'm fairly sure I've backed a few of those this year. When I'm in charge of things mares handicap hurdles will become consigned to history. The last time I backed a winner in one of those contests I got paid in tanners, I swear.

Anyway, we were also at Sandown at the weekend and my word, was it ever cold and windy. I'm amazed the Saturday fixture was on. Outside our hotel that morning was a sign advertising a steak house. Only thing was the steakhouse was about half a mile away, so far had the sign been blown in the night. Foolishly I'd left my Equidry coat at home but Vicki was wearing hers - a present for her birthday the day before - although she hadn't worked out how the zip worked. She might have a sharp business mind but she's useless with fasteners. Can't have everything. I think our big takeaway from the day was how very quiet Jonbon was before the Tingle Creek, a contrast to his usual exuberant self. It didn't stop him, though. Is he growing up a bit? On this, you'd have to say yes.

It's looking like a quiet week ahead with Leicester underwater already, although I'll be at Warwick on Thursday before moving on to Cheltenham for the weekend. Vicki is staying at home, which is bad news for her if I'm offered a new betting account at any point over those three days. Ah, she won't even know. Anyone want a bobble hat?

Say hello if you see me anywhere, won't you?

 - DM

Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases

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A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.

Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.

Introduction

Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable. 

The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.

The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases

It is time to start the countdown:

10. Kempton 7f

Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.

Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:

 

 

An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.

 

9. Lingfield 6f

Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:


 

Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.

At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.

 

8. Chelmsford 1m

This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs): 

 

 

As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.

 

7. Kempton 6f

Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.

 


 

Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.

 

6. Chelmsford 6f

The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 

 

These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.

Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.

 

5. Wolverhampton 5f

The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:

 


 

This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:

 

 

Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.

In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.

 

4. Chelmsford 7f

The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:

 


 

Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.

It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:

 


 

Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:

 

 

 

Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:

 

 

The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.

 

3. Southwell 5f

This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:

 


 

A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:

 


 

The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.

It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!

 

2. Chelmsford 5f

The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 


 

The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.

In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.

 

1. Lingfield 5f

Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:

 


 

If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.

Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:

 

 

 

Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.

 

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Conclusion

The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.

Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.

As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.

For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.

Until next time...

- DR

 

Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez

In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.

And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.

- Matt

Tix Picks, Tuesday 12/11/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hereford, Huntingdon, Lingfield & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Southwell having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on standard going tapeta...

5.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Blenheim Lad comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins over course and distance in September/October and although up 6lbs here should be winning again here, especially as there's not much else to write about when it comes to the form of his rivals.

None of the seven made the frame last time out, none have won any of their last seven races, but Alex The Great has finished second and fourth in his last two and Gentle Fire was a runner-up two starts ago and now makes a yard debut for Tony Carroll, who also trains Alex The Great.

The pace/draw heat map looks like this...

...and Instant Expert like this...

...so I'm going with (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

5.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 7f...

Rotation won a seller back in July but has struggled since, Seed Investor was 3rd of 11 at Catterick 24 days ago and We've Got This has three top-four finishes from his four starts (2934). Isla Bella makes an A/W debut and although last home of nine at Thirsk most recently, she did win at Brighton in May and was a Class 3 runner-up at York on her subsequent outing.

Zadkiel has been third in each of his last two starts and both Sherlock and Realise The Dream were third last time out too, but bottom weight Whizz By comes here off the back of a fairly comfortable win over course and distance on handicap debut just under three weeks ago and looks the one to beat.

Isla Bella looks like setting the tempo of the race here...

...so although she's going to be a big price, I'm going to add (5) Isla Bella to my ticket builder along with form picks (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Novak comes here off the back of three placed (312) runs in tight finishes and was only beaten by a neck over course and distance last time out, whilst three of his stablemates all won last week. Ideal Guest has two wins and a place from his last five starts and Monopolise looked quite comfortable when winning at Kempton by the thick end of two lengths eight days ago.

Ideal Guest and Monopolise also feature in the front half of the pace averages...

...which also suggests bold efforts from Royal Parade and Mark's Choice, but the former has only made the frame in 2 of 10 A/W starts (0 wins) and whilst the latter made the frame in back to back 7f Tapeta handicaps (1 over C&D) last November, he hasn't raced since finishing 10th of 12 at Newcastle 11 months ago!

So from that pace graphic, I'll discard those two and keep the two form picks along with Novak...

6.30 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies novice over 6f...

Cressida Wildes has already made the frame in three of her last four starts, only missing out when beaten by less than two lengths in a Listed race at Newbury in August and she has been a Class 2 runner-up and it is hoped that her first-time cheekpieces do the business for her here. Marvelously has steadily improved and was third over course and distance last time out, whilst Nazuki hit the ground running here (also over this trip) when a runner-up on debut almost four weeks ago.

This trio look the pick on form from those who've already had race experience, whilst of the debutants, Nakaaha is the most interesting. She's by Bated Breath and her dam was a winner at both 1m2f and 1m4f. This 2yo cost 80,000 gns as a foal and then 62,000 gns as a yearling and represents a yard in good nick with a healthy record at this venue...

This quartet are my shortlist and the one I'll omit is Marvelously.

7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Dutch Kingdom has won two of his last three including by 2.5 lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out and he'll seek to improve upon an already impressive 38% win and 59% place strike rate on the A/W. Secret Guest now returns to the A/W after a decent Flat campaign (placed in three of his last four) and finished 42621 on the Tapeta last winter. He was badly hampered at York in a big-field handicap last time out, but his prior run when beaten by a neck at Ripon (6f, Class 2) was excellent.

City House has made the frame in two of his last three also and Completely Random has made the frame (1 win) on both Tapeta outings to date and has made the frame in three of his last five runs, whilst Cajetan completes my 'form shortlist', having won two of his five starts this year. Those two wins are his entire A/W career and both came over 6f on tapeta, albeit at Newcastle rather than here.

There's not much in the way of pace here and Dutch Kingdom might be afforded an easy lead...

and in a tricky contest, he's on my ticket builder along with A/W 100%-er Cajetan and Completely Random who also seems to like the Tapeta.

7.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Lion Of War was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last five, Cruyff Turn won three starts ago whilst Chalk Mountain has 5 wins, 4 seconds and a third from his last ten A/W handicaps (1st and 2nd in two runs here, both over 7f). Shaw Park was a runner-up here over 7f last time out, but the one to beat looks like being Qazaq who brings a 2 from 2 record to the table after a 7f win at Chelmsford last December and a subsequent 7f win by 6 lengths at Kempton three weeks ago, despite not having raced for ten months! He was impressive that day and if he comes on for the run, the others might need binoculars to watch him finish.

A high draw is preferable here...

...as is early pace...

...so we're definitely having Qazaq!

Chalk Mountain does seem the most likely challenger based on form, draw, pace and consistency...

Lion Of War probably edges third pick for me. he has just two A/W runs under his belt to date and was only two necks away from winning at Kempton last time out finishing third in a tight 14-runner handicap with the runner-up going on to finish second again next time out over this course and distance despite stepping up in class . His other A/W run was on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June '22 and he landed a 7f Novice race by some ten lengths eased down.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

Leg 2: (5) Isla Bella, (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

Leg 3: (2) Novak, (3) Ideal Guest & (4) Monopolise

Leg 4: (3) Cressida Wildes, (6) Nakaaha & (7) Nazuki

Leg 5: (1) Dutch Kingdom, (6) Completely Random & (8) Cajetan

Leg 6: (1) Lion Of War, (6) Qazaq & (8) Chalk Mountain

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tricky day today, but good luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 31/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chelmsford, Newcastle, Stratford & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Southwell, where the tapeta is said to be 'standard', so let's look at the first six of a bumper none race card that begins with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m3f...

Achillea won over 1m2f at Chelmsford four weeks ago, but the 4yo Caramay is the form horse coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton in early September and then here over today's course and distance a fortnight ago, taking her form this year to 152611 since returning from a seven-month break.

D Day Arvalenreena has made the frame in four of her last five, Aim For The Moon has a win and a place from her last five, Carpathian's last five include a win and two places and Fillyfudge's last four 1434 and with Shady Bay finishing third on her second outing, you can make a case for most of these, but Caramay has the best A/W stats...

...whilst Fillyfudge's early pace might well propel her into the frame today if she can hold on...

...but I suspect she'll have to play second (or third best) to the likes of fast-finishing Caramay and LTO winner Achillea

 

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

Ten run, four are on debut, two make just a second appearance and the other four have raced twice each with the filly Kimeko Glory the only one to have made the frame, when third of nine over 1m½f at Wolverhampton five weeks ago. Minelone also makes some appeal after not being disgraced over 7f on debut also at Wolverhampton six weeks ago, coming home fourth of ten and should come on for the experience and I think that this pair will be involved again today.

Of the debutants, Rogue Officer might be the one to take note of, he's a son of Soldiers Call, a half-brother to several winners including Misleading Promise, Return To Dubai and Frutireu and he's out of Nurse Nightingale, who made the frame in seven of her own ten A/W starts.

Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

The second division of the above race gives us even less to go on! Only three have raced before and none of them have really impressed, so the chances are that the debutants will beat them.

Empress Matilda's dam won three times and was a runner-up twice from six starts at 6f and 7f including wins at a Group 2 & 3 and a Gr 1 silver. She's a half-sister to Saint Lawrence, who won a 7f Listed race and her yard's (Roger Varian) debutants are flying right now, plus they have a stack of stats to back them up...

Tattie Bogle is a half-brother to winners including Column, Teaser and Tartlette, with the former a winner on the All-Weather. The Johnston yard have a good record at this venue and Tattier Bogle could easily get amongst the money here, as could Lightupyourlife, whose dam was a winner up to 7.5f. This Kodiac filly cost 37,000 Euros as a yearling and is a half sister to A/W winner Livinthelife, who has won up to 1m1f.

Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo maiden over 1m...

A modest looking contest that shouldn't take much winning and the obvious starting point would have to be Spetses who was beaten by less than two lengths on debut four weeks ago, finishing second of ten behind a horse that already had a win under his belt and we already highlighted his yard's form in the race above.

And if Spetses is an obvious candidate for the win, then you have to say that Rogue State is the ideal suggestion to make the frame, having finished third in all six career starts to date. She gets weight from most of her rivals and will wear a tongue-tie for the first time today.

As for a third pick, none of the others with race experience excite me, so it could fall to debutant Sedbury. This Pearl Secret colt is a brother to 1m-1½m winner Goldsborough and a half-brother to both 6f winner Canadian Royal & 1m-1½m winner My Boy Sepoy and hails from a yard with a good record at this track...

Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Three runners, How Impressive, Harvard Sound and It Just Takes Time come here on hat-tricks, so at least two will see their winning streak end. Chuzzlewit is the only runner without a win in the last six starts, having lost his last eight, but he was third of twelve at Ayr last time out. Silver Samurai was also third last time out, whilst Street Kid and Lattaash have both made the frame in each of their last two runs, with Noodle Mission's form this year reading 31211216 with the step up to Class 2 LTO just a bit too much and this course/distance winner now steps back down in class. Bottom weight Chalk Mountain was also sixth last time out, ending a run of three straight A/W victories, but that has moved his mark from 68 to 82 and that might be his ceiling for now.

Our pace analyser for this race looks like this...

...which suggests that the following half dozen runners might be better suited...

...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist would be...

...and in a race where you can make claims for plenty of these, I'm taking a simplistic approach with the three that feature on both graphics above ie (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run

Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Baltic seemed to struggle on the heavy ground at Newmarket last time out, coming home last of eight and ending a 5-race winning streak that included two handicap wins on the Tapeta at Newcastle, so he's have every chance back on the A/W.

Saratoga Gold hasn't won any of his last thirteen races since a win at Kempton almost 15 months ago and probably comes here in the worst form of the four runners.

Berkshire Sundance won well at Kempton in September 2023 before taking almost a year off and on his return at Chester last month he got upset in the stalls, reared at the start and jockey Jason Watson. Oisin Murphy had ridden him to victory at Kempton and returned to the saddle at Salisbury last time out, where the pair won again.

Le Rouge Chinois could only manage to finish 8th of 9 over this course and distance a fortnight ago, which was a disappointment considering he had the run of the run from the front end. he faded badly late on and was eventually over 13 lengths off the pace.

On form alone, you'd want to be with Baltic and Berkshire Sundance and it's the former who has the best A/W stats over the last couple of years and is only 4lbs higher than his last win...

...and with him looking likely to stalk Le Rouge Chinois in the early stages, Baltic would the one I'd back to win this if I was looking for a winner...

That said, Berkshire Sunrise is likely to go off at odds on, so I'd be foolish to ignore his claims too.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Achillea, (5) Fillyfudge & (6) Caramay

Leg 2: (4) Minelone, (5) Rogue Officer & (8) Kimeko Glory

Leg 3: (5) Tattie Bogle, (6) Empress Matilda & (7) Lightupyourlife

Leg 4: (3) Spetses, (5) Sedbury & (7) Rogue State

Leg 5: (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run

Leg 6: (1) Baltic & (5) Berkshire Sunrise

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone, see you tomorrow!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Huntingdon, Leicester & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.

Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...

whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...

...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...

...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.

(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.

Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.

Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...

All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.

Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.

Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.

Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!

She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...

...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!

The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.

She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...

I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here

Leg 5 @ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...

... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f

And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.

There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...

..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman

Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto

Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah

Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, good luck!

Chris

Roving Reports: Chasing the Easter Money

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It’s a busy time for bookmakers, is Easter, with a whole raft of meetings both Flat and Jumps to attend, although the early news on Saturday is not great, writes David Massey. Not only has Musselburgh bitten the dust after an early morning deluge, but for the Midlands bookmakers, the point-to-point at Sandon, near Stafford, has also been called off. That’s usually a really well-attended event, and will be a big miss for them. There will be no chance to see Eddie Redmayne, and his dogs, there this year. 

This matters not to us, as we’re off to Haydock for their family fun day. The weather looks mixed, to say the least, and it’s grey and damp as we set off. By the time we get there, however, the sun is trying to break through and things look brighter, literally. 

Other meetings being off means more bookmakers than there were last year at Haydock; four more, in fact, and this means betting on two lines rather than the one we were in last year. (The line takes 17 bookmakers.) When all the punters are in front of you, business is better; if you’re on the front line, you run the risk of a bookmaker betting behind you, and taking a share of your business. Such is the bookmaking life. 

We know what today will be like - all small money, lots of bets on “named” horses (it cannot be coincidence that one of the best backed horses all day with us is called Holly) and now the sun is fully out, we should have a decent day. 

Quiet to get going, as ever, and putting the forecast up for the four-runner first event is a waste of time. Nobody has a clue what it is, and nobody asks. I’d have been better putting the weather forecast up. It might have been more informative. 

As stated, the aforementioned Holly is an each-way disaster in the second race for us, and with the favourite, Brentford Hope, winning it’s a losing race. Secret Trix is much better in the next, but there’s a dinosaur show on for the kids, and business isn’t as strong. 

There are often dinosaurs in the betting ring - most of them will take your bets with a smile - but these two are bigger than the norm. One is a T-Rex and the other one isn’t. Some of the younger kids find it all a bit much. If you’ve bought “crying children” at 15 at the start of the day, go collect. 

Numitor is actually an okay result but Daly Tiger finishing third knocks a fair bit of the place money out. I go to get the coffees and offer up a loyalty card. Despite buying three drinks, it’s only stamped once. “One stamp per visit”, we are told. I shake my head. Come racing. 

Duke Of Deception is a good result but the enormous gamble on One Big Bang is joined in by a fair proportion of the crowd, and that’s not. Said crowd ebbs away pretty quickly after the sixth, with tired and emotional children in tow, carrying their dinosaur merchandise. Elleon wins the last, a good result, and it’s time to go home, although somehow I manage to join the wrong lane at the Haydock Island roundabout and end up taking a three-mile detour to get myself on the M6. 

Sunday sees me at Southwell, and in truth there’s little to say. Southwell are only allowing 100 public in, on top of owners, trainers and annual members, with the downstairs grandstand still out of operation. There’s only three bookmakers in the ring, and one on the rail, and whilst there’s enough business for the four, there’s only just enough. It’s families again, although with a cold, grey day, most are in the warmth upstairs, bar one family determined to stick it out on a couple of picnic tables. There’s an ice-cream van on the premises, but you wouldn’t want a share in it today. Results are irrelevant with the business - at least for four races - when suddenly a big punter appears, wanting a grand each-way Squeaker. He gets laid, and the business, rather than going back to the machine, is shared around the books. Squeaker looks beat at halfway but rattles home and is beaten under a length. He’s copped the each-way money for him, at least. He doesn’t bet the next but smashes into Brother Dave in the penultimate, and when that cops, it looks bleak. We get a bit back off him in the last but we’ve stood all day for very little. And it’s freezing. 

On to Huntingdon on Monday. This is more like it. My first McDonalds of any description for 41 days (not that I’m counting, you never do when you’re on a diet, do you?) is a Bacon Roll and Hash Brown as we make our way down the A14. God, I’d forgotten how good a bacon roll tastes. Everyone knows calories don’t count on Bank Holidays. Just for once, the Shredded Wheat can be passed over. 

After a rainy start, the sun really does come shining through - I contemplated sun cream at one point, no, honestly - and a good crowd are still piling in as the first goes off. If the money was small at Haydock, it’s positively minute here, with about 50% of the bets either £2 win or £1 e/w. Families having five or six bets, novices placing their first ever bets, mums taking advice from their kids, they’re all here today. Two families, from Cambridge, apparently remember my face from last year and have their knicker each-way bets with me all day. “You were very polite”, they tell me. That’s the game on these days - price is irrelevant, customer service everything. This is proven by the very first bet I take - £10 on Annie Day at 10-1 in the first race, when next door to me is 11s. Smile, be nice, have a joke. It works. 

However, I’ve got a problem. Two, to be precise. Because the firm have no fewer then seven pitches running between Huntingdon and the other half of the crew at Fakenham, it means that bits of kit that wouldn’t normally be used are wheeled out today. The laptop I’m using was the very one that Noah used to count the animals onto the Ark two-by-two with. The light board is old too, and for some reason, the bottom half of it isn’t working, which is far from ideal. The laptop crashes, at various inconvenient points throughout the afternoon, no fewer than eight times, and each time I have to restart everything. At the end of the day, I reckon that’s probably cost me a monkey’s worth of business. The temptation to launch the damned thing into the bin at close of play is great, but it’s not my equipment...

This is doubly frustrating with results as good as they are: not a winning favourite in sight until the last two races, by which time business has notably dropped off anyway, with many families off home after the sixth. We’ve won and won well on the day, and although the urge to double-dip at Maccy D’s on the way home is great, I resist. Just. 

And so finally, to Pontefract. I’m not working, just a day out. It normally takes me an hour and 10 minutes from my house to get to the track, so I leave in good time. Or so I thought. 

I drive into the track as they are going into the stalls for the first. The M1 was bad, the A1 worse, and finally Pontefract town centre itself appeared to be at a standstill. The nearer I got to the track, the further away I got, time wise, according to Google Maps. That’s never a good thing. So as you can imagine, I’ve fallen out with myself before I’m even parked up, and when the only parking space left appears to be in the middle of a lake of a puddle, the appeal of turning the car around and going home is strong. 

But I'm glad I didn’t, as it was quite an enjoyable day overall, bumping into a few old friends, backing a winner, then giving most of it back, and probably seeing a future winner in Vallamorey. However, if anyone wants to pop round and clean my car in readiness for Aintree next week (when it’ll DEFINITELY get dirty again) then don’t let me stop you...

- DM

Roving Report: It’s beginning to look a lot like Fakers

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December’s a quiet time, isn’t it? Not a lot going on, not much to do, writes David Massey. Not from a racing point of view, anyway. The days are short, which means earlier start times, which means getting up at the crack of dawn to get there, which means an early night the evening before, and usually abstaining from the bottles and bottles of Christmas booze you’ve bought for the festive period. Unless you want to work on the pitch with a sore head all day. And I don’t. 

I’ll be doing Kempton Silver Ring next week. It’ll be the first time I’ve ever worked a pitch on King George Day, so that’ll be exciting. What’s less exciting is the 5.45am alarm call to get there in time. I’ll let you know how that goes in my next missive. 

Southwell being as it is at the moment - no public, and there won’t be any for the near future, either - means my services are not always currently required at my local. It’s very quiet there, and for a recent meeting that kicked off around 11.20am, we were actually able to count the people attending (around 50) as we sat upstairs, keeping warm. 

I have, at least, had more time on my hands to go racing and get some notes down. Last week I went to Leicester, to have a look to see how Apple Away was progressing. I don’t mind a trip to Leicester, although for a track that’s only 35 miles from me, it seems to take ages to get there. Once you come off the M1, you’re in a world of pain; Fosse Park retail traffic to start with, then a whole series of traffic lights, bottlenecks and roundabouts before you get to the track. There’s not a lot to look at, either; no rolling Cotswolds to keep you calm, merely a series of Chinese takeaways, tanning salons, and Betfreds. 

The one thing I do miss about Leicester is Reg’s Beef Rolls. An absolute must in the winter months, lovely tender beef mopped up in gravy in a massive bap, all for the bargain price of a fiver. There was always a queue. 

That aside, Leicester is a perfectly nice day out. Apple Away was very good, and looks to be improving. Come the end of the day I had a little chat with Jonjo O’Neill about his in the last. Talking to Jonjo always brings a smile to your face. He gives nothing away. 

“Did you find a reason why he ran so poorly at Newbury, Jonjo?”

Jonjo looks at the horse, looks at me, and looks at the horse again. 

“Which one is this?” he says to the lass, pointing at it. I burst out laughing. 

“It’s Regal Blue”, she says. “Nothing came to light.”

“I don’t think he liked Newbury much”, says Jonjo. “Anyway, he’ll win today.” 

I’m just confused and laughing. Forty seconds ago he didn’t know which horse it was! 

He actually ran a good race, finishing third and running much better. I think he’ll win one soon. 

It was also a great pleasure to meet Malcolm Heyhoe and his partner at Leicester, both there for a day out. I’m sure older readers will remember Malcolm’s columns in the Guardian and Weekender, among others; we had a lovely chat and it turns out Malcolm’s a fan of these Geegeez scribblings. I look forward to bumping into them again in the near future.

Next stop was Cheltenham, at the weekend. On Friday I was free, so was able to do some useful paddock notes and enjoy myself, but Saturday I’d already committed to working on the rails. I found myself next to the ever-jovial Pinno, who had clearly been working on the joint I was on on the Friday. There’s always an easy way to tell; Pinno is the most untidy bookie you’ll come across. All of the previous day’s ripped-up tickets and newspaper were still in the hod, now wet from a bit of rain, and you have to clear them out before you can start. One of these days I’ll charge him for cleaning services. He always calls me “Davey Boy”; “what do you like here, Davey Boy?”, “can we get this jolly beat, Davey Boy?”, “not a lot of business about, Davey Boy”, that sort of thing. I like working next to him, he’s always good fun. 

Saturday was not busy. I was taking in the region of 600-700 a race on the rail, steady but nothing outstanding, The biggest bet I took all day was a 1000-200 Nurse Susan in the last, which won, and that sort of tells you how the whole day went. Over the 14 races on the Friday and Saturday, there were eight winning favourites and the biggest priced winner was 9-1 (Madara, I even managed to take a 900-100 that as well), and not many books were smiling as they headed to the car parks at four o’clock.  

And finally, lovely Fakenham on Tuesday. Sadly for me, my lift bailed after he’d seen the weather forecast of rain all day, so I had to drive myself on the 250-mile round trip. It’s a good job I actually like driving! 

I always keep Google Maps on to update me of any potential issues and one cropped up on the A17 near Sleaford. A lorry had come off the road and gone over into an embankment; it was lucky there was a large hedge there or he’d have gone fully over. I just about managed to creep by the accident, only to hear on the radio ten minutes later the road had been closed. That would have been game over as far as getting to Fakenham went. I often see accidents like that while on my travels and am always grateful not to be in them. 

Around 9.40 I was getting peckish and fancied a bacon sandwich, so was pleased to spy a “Hot Food Next Layby” sign near Sleaford. However, on pulling up the guy had already packed up and was preparing to tow his wares away! Either he’d had a jackpot morning or people don’t eat bacon sandwiches on the road after half nine anymore, it seems. A couple of miles down the road was “Michelles” in another layby, and she did provide an excellent bacon roll. All’s well that ends well, and I’m back on the road with a decent cup of tea to boot. 

At Fakenham, I’m working with the lovely Julie for the S&D firm and we have a fun afternoon, despite the rain. Plenty of locals have turned up and although it’s mainly small money, it’s busy enough, and the firm wins nicely on the day. Just as well, as my petrol expenses, having driven myself, are on the high side. Plus the bacon roll. The rest of the firm are off to the local Wetherspoons for their dinner, whereas I have the three-hour drive home.

The sky is a beautiful red and, as it starts to turn dark to the west and the light disappears, the colours begin to clash and I manage to get a picture as the last of the daylight goes.

I haven’t got an arty bone in my body, but I do like the snap I managed to take. I hope you do too.

On that note, I’d like to wish all Geegeez readers a merry (and profitable) Christmas and a Happy New Year!

See you all in 2024! 

- Dave M

Roving Reports: Southwell, but not as we know it

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The news that Southwell was going to return after the autumn flooding recently was music to my ears, as I’d been missing those visits to my local course, writes David Massey. (I know there’s a track in Nottingham, and yes, I live in Nottingham, but I have always considered Southwell to be my local. Not least because there’s jump racing there, and is actually easier to get to.)

I’d popped down to the track a couple of times whilst the flooding was going on and had spoken to manager Mark Clayton on the first of them. Mark is positivity itself, he can find the good in pretty much any situation, but even he seemed quite down and it was obvious we weren’t going to be back to “normal” for some time. It would appear, from recent chat about the subject, that the general public aren’t going to be back until after Christmas, with anything at ground level unusable and the upstairs areas can only take so many people safely. So, for the time being, it’s owners, trainers and annual members only, with some temporary structures being used for the weighing room, jockeys’ changing rooms, etc.

Those changing rooms must have been very cold on the first night back. With 119 runners on a nine-race card and temperatures in the minuses, five bookmakers turned up expecting a crowd of around, well, let’s say estimates varied from 120-350. They were all hopeful there would be enough business for five books but they were wrong.

After five races two of the quintet decided enough was enough and packed up. For the remaining three there was just about enough business left, but it was becoming clear that, even with 100+ runners, two books would be plenty. We scraped by without too much mishap but as was pointed out, on nights like this you’re asking for trouble as a bookmaker. With all respect to the annual members, most only have small bets (one or two occasionally have a decent wager) so all you’ll take as an on-track bookmaker is live money from owners in low-grade handicaps for the majority of the time. You’re almost asking for a kicking.

If that was bad business, then unfortunately the jumps meeting that followed on Tuesday was worse. With just a third of Friday’s runners, we were always going to be well down on owners - although one positive you can take is that the jumps boys do like a bet. You’re more likely to field money for more than one runner, which is obviously a help, but there was no volume at all. From Pick 1 in the ring I took 47 bets, equating to eight bets a race. Business dwindled away as the afternoon progressed, with owners not hanging around after their horses had run. The rail pitch did better - the current one-way system in place means that the rail is the first bookmaker you come across - but all the same, it’s clear it is going to be a long, hard winter for whatever bookmakers turn up there, particularly with the Christmas fixtures, usually such a moneyspinner, now looking dead in the water.

The other positive, I suppose, is that the betting shop, situated on the first floor, is closed for the foreseeable and so betting the away meetings in the afternoon becomes a little more lucrative. Before you say “yes, but everyone has phones, they’ll just use those, won’t they?” you’d be surprised how many medium-to-large sized backers simply can’t get on with the online firms (or perhaps you wouldn’t be? We’ve all had those emails with “Your Account” as the subject matter, after all…) and have returned to the tracks to punt. Most have a share in something running, too, or know someone that does, and so can get themselves in without any hassle.

So Southwell is Schroedinger’s course at the moment - it’s back, but it’s not really back, not how you’d like it anyway.

However, one thing that’s made me a very happy man is that on the first meeting back I got to meet the legendary Michael Dickinson. Michael, apart from being one of the greatest trainers of a racehorse of all time, invented Tapeta, in case you weren’t aware (and is still made by Michael Dickinson Inc) and has come over to give his advice when Southwell have had issues with the surface in the past. He was there to get jockey feedback and make sure all was well with the surface, which it was. We had a chat about some of his wonderful horses, with Silver Buck top of my list. He still delights in telling people about all the 12 Boxing Day winners he had in 1982, and of course the first five home in the Gold Cup. There weren’t many at Southwell that night but he still had a captive audience, with everyone keen to say hello and get an autograph from the great man.

I’d have to say the bloke has barely aged in the last thirty years. He’s like Benjamin Button, physically younger the older he gets. Perhaps he rubs Tapeta on his face every night. Maybe that’s the secret.

I’ve still got two Tupperware containers full of Fibresand in the garage from when they dug it all up for the Tapeta. I wonder if that would work…

- DM

Roving Reports: Here, There and Everywhere

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I was going to write the next part of the blog after Aintree, as I was expecting that to be the next time anything even remotely exciting was going to happen, but last week turned into a busier week than I expected it to, writes David Massey.

It started on Sunday, at Garthorpe Point-To-Point. Having been denied my point fix when Revesby was called off during the cold snap this winter, I was determined to go, particularly as the weather forecast was favourable.

If you've never been pointing, you ought to give it a go. Don't worry about getting lost on the way there - once you're within ten miles of the track, you can follow any dirty 4x4 or Land Rover and be pretty sure you'll end up in the right spot. Tweed is a given, even on a warm day, and if you've a dog, so much the better.

There's a good crowd, maybe somewhere between 800-1000 is my best guess, and they are treated to some close finishes. Sadly none of them involve the horses I back during the afternoon, and my best result is the lamb and mint burger (local farm, naturally) for a fiver which is so tasty, I end up taking a pack of four home. Buy local, buy British, go pointing!

Having done the lot in, I nearly bag a pheasant on the way home. He darts out from a field and runs right in front of the car. How I missed him I'll never know. I see him running off in the rear view mirror, seemingly unaware of his near-death experience. Suffice to say, he's been a sight luckier than I have today.

Monday sees me back on the S&D team at Southwell and that too is reasonably well attended. Fixtures between Cheltenham and Aintree normally see attendances go down, as once the euphoria of Cheltenham is over, people tend to wait for Aintree or switch their attentions to the Flat, and the midweek fixtures are particularly hard hit. However, Southwell bucks the trend, and after I do the punters panel with Steven Powell before racing and give Rostello (11/2) in the first, we've a few more happy punters at my joint. As ever, our regular punters get BOG, and it matters not whether you're having £2 on or £200, they all get it. Plenty of books will give you benefits if you become a regular with them, whether that be BOG or next price up.

Joe Dadancer is my nap on the preview and his win gets me some of the Garthorpe losses back. I like him a lot, it'll be interesting to see where he turns up next.

Market Rasen on the Wednesday is my next port of call. The usual A46 (Northern version) bottlenecks around Newark aren't as bad as normal and I've time for a coffee on the way up. This is a mistake, as for the last ten miles to the track I'm bursting for the toilet. Let that be a lesson to you all. Get to the track first, then have a beverage.

The ground is supposed to be on the soft side, but as I drive into the grassy car park and the back end of my Auris steps out in an Ari Vatanen moment (Google, young 'un) I have my suspicions it may be worse than that. After they come back from the first with plenty of dirt on them, I go back through the card and start laying anything that doesn't want the mud. It's a successful ploy, and it also leads me to back the no-hoper Leskinfere at 10 on Betfair three places. When he rolls in a distant third the Garthorpe losses are but a memory. I celebrate with a chocolate biscuit (the best ones are wrapped in foil, another little tip for you there...) and a strong tea.

Thursday sees me at Warwick, which I wasn't intending doing but I need to pick some bookmaking kit up for Stratford on Sunday and the bookmaker I'm working for will be at Warwick, so it makes sense to meet there and collect it rather than run around like an idiot on Saturday. It's a beautiful day and the sun makes me think Spring is finally here. I shall discover later in the week this is not the case.

One of the regular Midlands bookmakers is missing from the fixture, and indeed all Midlands fixtures for the foreseeable. Swannbet, better known as Graham and Natalie to me, will sadly not been seen for a while as Graham, we find out, has cancer. I send him a message to wish him well and hope we will see him back in his rightful place in the ring before much longer. Sport is important, but it pales into insignificance at times, and today feels like one of those times.

Punting wise on the day, it's pretty much straight across for me with three bets that aren't sighted but I do have a few bob on Mr Palmtree on Betfair, as he looks in superb condition. Sadly I give too much back in running but he does at least ensure the day isn't a disaster. On the way home the police are holding traffic on the M69 due to a bad crash near Leicester; annoying as that is, when you pass the accident and see the mangled wrecks the cars are, you always thank your lucky stars it isn't you caught up in it. A 20 minute delay is neither here nor there compared to our health.

Next morning I get a call from Jason on the S&D firm. "Don't suppose you can work Sunday at Ascot, can you?" I'm not keen, if I'm honest, but Jason is desperate for a worker (most of them are on holiday, it turns out) so I'm happy to oblige this once. I'm already booked to work Stratford on Saturday, so it makes sense to stay over and travel onto Ascot Sunday morning.

I do love working Stratford. I think it's just about my favourite track to work. Always a decent atmosphere and as I've said before, the whole crowd seems to have a bet. It's only small money but you feel busy and you can make a book. However, my hearing seems to be getting worse; I was convinced one bloke asked me for two pounds on something, but when he gets a ruck of nifties from his pocket it's clear he's asked me for two grand. I lay him a monkey of it and tell him if he wants more, go and see my boss. He gets on, but his pick loses. He's back again next race, has a grand on the jolly, and watches that finish tailed off too. We don't see him again.

Both results and business are good and there's a little top-up on wages at the end of the day. Pays for the evening meal, and after a poor night's sleep (I never sleep well away from home) it's off to Ascot.

I get there early as I want to do a bit of work in the press room in the morning. Perhaps unsurprisingly the place is somewhat deserted, but that does mean when lunch comes out (chicken, veg, roasties and Yorkshires) there's plenty to go around. That's very welcome as when I go down to the ring to work, it's absolutely Baltic.

The main stand is basically causing a split between the front and back of the place. Round the back, by the paddock, there's barely a breath of wind, the sun is radiating heat and people are outside drinking and eating. Out front, in the wind and shade, there are polar bears running around wearing anoraks, it's that cold.

It's a family fun day at Ascot so you know what that means. Small money, lots of it, and rather than a fiver I make sure my minimum bet for the day is £2. That works, but it also means I'm out of change by Race 2.

Next door to me is Steve Bailey, aka Stevie Stretch. Steve, like me, enjoys these family days and is happy to show the kids how things work (all within the 18-plus boundaries, of course). Two mums are by his joint with three young kids, the youngest of which keeps touching all Steve's change. And like most kids, the more he tells her not to touch it, the more she touches it. I sneak up behind them, gesturing to Steve to be quiet, before sticking my head in and saying, in a stern voice, "I hope nobody is touching the change over here." You've never seen a kid put her arms by her sides so quickly.

Do you remember me telling you on a previous blog how, on these days when you're dealing with mainly novice punters, how they work their way from the top of the board to the bottom? As such, Blueking D'Oreaux, number 1 on the race card and top of the lightboard, is a real punters result on a day like today. Loads have had their £2.50 and fiver each-ways on; the other joint has taken a £100 win bet at 40-1. There's some serious concern we might run out of money, for all that's obviously a good result. I scrape together what I can spare for Jason's four-grand payout and it leaves me with about £300 after we've paid out. I need a result in the next to get the cash flow back up; Black Gerry provides respite, although I'm delighted for the lady who had a tenner each-way as her grandad, Gerry, had passed away earlier in the week, she tells me.

My only bet of the day, Charging Point, looks like winning coming to the last but gets it all wrong and I have to settle for the place money. I swear it's getting colder and by the time we get to the last the place has emptied quite a lot. Get paid, pack up and go home. On the way back I call into Toddington Services for food, sadly I'm in there the same time as about 500 jubilant Bolton supporters on their way back from Wembley after winning the Papa Johns Trophy earlier. So, fast food it ain't, with a 40 minute wait for a Chicken Royale and a drink. On the way back to the car I hear my name called; it is none other than Laura Morgan, trainer of Charging Point. "Caught you in the act", she says, referring to my unhealthy meal. I tell her I thought her horse was unlucky and she agrees. "He's off for a break now", she tells me. And I'm off home, getting back about 8.30pm, with an aching back and legs. Standing around in the wind all day really takes it out of you. Especially at my age...

- DM

Roving Reports: Lucky Man

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"You're a lucky man, you."

"How do you mean?"

"You get to go racing most days, and when you're not going racing, you're writing about going racing. Most blokes I know would swap with you in an instant."

Thus went a conversation with a friend whilst at Cheltenham recently. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that, on a gorgeous warm, sunny Monday evening by the Thames, drinking a beer whilst I peruse some lovely-looking 2yos in the paddock at Windsor, that what I do for a living doesn't have its advantages.

However, it isn't all sweetness and light, and the flip side of the coin that has a Monday Windsor as heads, is a Market Rasen Thursday in winter as tails.

Such a Thursday came to pass last week when I'm booked in to do paddock notes. A gander at the weather forecast the night before looks bleak; when the area you're working in can't been seen on the national map for the sea of blue on top of it, you know the waterproofs are needed.

Those, plus the woolly hat and boots, are packed as I set off through the driving rain Thursday morning. You'll be delighted to hear that Rasen is not three-and-a-half hours away from my house, but a mere ninety minutes. Once you're past the A46 bottleneck at Newark (the only place name in England that's an anagram of w****r - one to amuse your friends with down the pub) it's all plain sailing.

When I arrive in the grassy car park at Rasen, there's a brief second where, as I turn into my space, the car has a little sideways wobble. It's already getting very wet. Nevertheless, equipped in full rain gear, I'm ready to face the elements.

Better still, we're now told the rain will have passed over by 1pm, and then it'll brighten up. As they come out for the first at about ten past twelve, it doesn't feel like it's about to suddenly dry up; indeed it appears to be raining harder. I start to take notes.

One o'clock comes and goes, and the sky is as slate grey as when I arrived. This isn't drying up any time soon. Huge puddles are starting to appear in the parade ring and by the winners enclosure. By the time we get to race 3 we need an inspection to see if we can carry on, as there's standing water everywhere. The jockeys say it's fine and so the horses come out for the next.

The rain gets harder still. My notes are nothing but a soggy mush, unreadable. I can definitely feel damp patches under the waterproofs. I take refuge under a bookmaker's umbrella as another inspection is announced.

The rain is pouring off every roof you can see and it comes down harder still. A decision is taken that the horses won't now use the flooded parade ring and will go straight to the start, which makes my reason for actually being at the track, to look at them in the paddock, non-existent.

I don't care whether it's raceable or not, it's now clear we shouldn't be here. Everywhere is becoming flooded. I'm told to go home, but the exit itself is just a lake. "Go up the middle", the security guard tells me. I do, and my boot immediately goes underwater. By the time I get to the car I'm soaked, head to toe. I can actually wring my socks out. I have no choice but to get the lot off and drive home in a t-shirt and, thankfully, a pair of dry trainers that are in the boot more by luck than anything else.

Needless to say the car spins and skids its way out of the car park and by the time I get to Middle Rasen, the next village along, the road is barely passable. It takes me over two hours to get back. Steady as she goes, captain.

There has to come a point in a race meeting when it rains so heavily and for so long that what happens on the track is secondary. Customer safety must take priority, not just at the track but in the surrounding areas, too. I don't believe that happened here and I'm glad I went when I did. The meeting was abandoned about 15 minutes after I left, unsurprisingly, but for me it went on a race too long.

That's the worst thing that's befallen me since my last missive. In other, better news, I've worked at Southwell a couple of times, once actually to help host a box for the first time and once on a pitch. The box was a strange experience, as I've not done it before; but it went well and people seemed to enjoy themselves, despite the fact my tips, by and large, ran slower then treacle. Saying that, the nap won at 13-8, so some redemption.

However, the day I worked the pitch was unbelievable. I have no idea where they came from, but we had punters - good punters - having absolute chunks on. On my pitch alone I took the following: a £1000 bet Khabib in the second, a £1000 bet (and a £400) Western Beat in the fifth, and a £500 Dancinginthewoods in the next, all of which are beaten. In terms of turnover we take almost five times what we'd normally take, seemingly from a few just out to have a tilt at the ring without any great inside knowledge.

It's good to see a few of the Southwell regulars in attendance. We workmen have nicknames for a few of them: "price-pincher", for whom the price has "just gone" almost every time he has a bet, and he'll try and pinch the bigger price; "DFS", who has a jacket that looks like it was once part of a sofa; "Nemesis", named not after the Alton Towers rollercoaster but due to the fact he's almost unbeatable, usually coming in very late with his bet; the self-explanatory "ice-cream man", and a couple of lads we call "The Professionals". They're not, but they like to think they are.

The last port of call this week is Wetherby. It rains heavily on the morning of racing.

When the first thing you're asked by the car park attendant, on arrival is, "how good is your car at getting out of mud?", then you know it's been a close call getting the meeting on. Mud, glorious mud. It's literally everywhere and the heavy duty boots are out again. Sun's out now though, and there's a rainbow. All I need to do now is find the pot of gold at the end of it. I'll take four winners on a Yankee if that's not possible.

There's no pot of gold, barely even a sliver of silver as the afternoon progresses, and the only bright spot is the excellent piece of lemon drizzle from the coffee shop. Thankfully, the car gets out of the car park in one piece and the best decision I make is to go down the M1 rather than the A1 back home, as it turns out the latter is blocked. Seems I can back the winner of a two-horse race!

It's Newbury and the not-the-Hennessy this weekend for me, working for the MT firm in the ring. I'll let you know how that goes next time. In the meantime, I'm just setting the alarm for the 6am start. Remind me again how lucky I am...

- DM

Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps

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In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.

For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At www.geegeez.co.uk there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.

The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 325 1812 17.9 1.75
Prominent (3) 523 4448 11.8 1.15
Mid Division (2) 155 2003 7.7 0.79
Held Up (1) 357 4886 7.3 0.72

 

These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:

 

Pace comment 6f 5f   6f 5f
  SR% SR%   IV IV
Led (4) 17.9 22.3   1.75 2.04
Prominent (3) 11.8 12.5   1.15 1.15
Mid Division (2) 7.7 6.5   0.79 0.62
Held Up (1) 7.3 6.7   0.72 0.61

 

Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.

The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:

6 to 8 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 536 104 19.4 1.41
Prominent (3) 1093 167 15.28 1.11
Mid Division (2) 304 27 8.88 0.66
Held Up (1) 988 107 10.83 0.79

 

9 to 10 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 548 100 18.25 1.73
Prominent (3) 1351 163 12.07 1.15
Mid Division (2) 549 43 7.83 0.74
Held Up (1) 1477 113 7.65 0.73

 

11 or more runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 728 121 16.62 1.98
Prominent (3) 2004 193 9.63 1.14
Mid Division (2) 1150 85 7.39 0.88
Held Up (1) 2421 137 5.66 0.67

 

The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.

The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.

Chelmsford

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 58 278 20.9 1.97
Prominent (3) 71 562 12.6 1.19
Mid Division (2) 31 422 7.3 0.71
Held Up (1) 44 671 6.6 0.62

 

Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.

It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.

The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.

 

Kempton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 72 388 18.6 1.85
Prominent (3) 107 938 11.4 1.14
Mid Division (2) 41 542 7.6 0.78
Held Up (1) 84 1123 7.5 0.75

 

The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.

In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).

 

Lingfield

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 68 297 22.9 2.07
Prominent (3) 76 590 12.9 1.16
Mid Division (2) 32 380 8.4 0.79
Held Up (1) 50 745 6.7 0.61

 

The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.

 

Newcastle

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 23 143 16.1 1.74
Prominent (3) 34 394 8.6 0.94
Mid Division (2) 17 197 8.6 0.97
Held Up (1) 40 485 8.2 0.89

 

Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.

 

Southwell

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 33 166 19.9 1.85
Prominent (3) 102 690 14.8 1.38
Mid Division (2) 7 124 5.6 0.57
Held Up (1) 17 491 3.5 0.32

 

A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.

 

Wolverhampton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 71 540 13.1 1.33
Prominent (3) 133 1274 10.4 1.06
Mid Division (2) 27 338 8.0 0.87
Held Up (1) 122 1371 8.9 0.9

 

Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.

*

Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.

Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:

 

Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...

- Dave Renham