Tix Picks, Thursday 31/10/24 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chelmsford, Newcastle, Stratford & Southwell.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Southwell, where the tapeta is said to be 'standard', so let's look at the first six of a bumper none race card that begins with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m3f...

Achillea won over 1m2f at Chelmsford four weeks ago, but the 4yo Caramay is the form horse coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton in early September and then here over today's course and distance a fortnight ago, taking her form this year to 152611 since returning from a seven-month break.

D Day Arvalenreena has made the frame in four of her last five, Aim For The Moon has a win and a place from her last five, Carpathian's last five include a win and two places and Fillyfudge's last four 1434 and with Shady Bay finishing third on her second outing, you can make a case for most of these, but Caramay has the best A/W stats...

...whilst Fillyfudge's early pace might well propel her into the frame today if she can hold on...

...but I suspect she'll have to play second (or third best) to the likes of fast-finishing Caramay and LTO winner Achillea

Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

Ten run, four are on debut, two make just a second appearance and the other four have raced twice each with the filly Kimeko Glory the only one to have made the frame, when third of nine over 1m½f at Wolverhampton five weeks ago. Minelone also makes some appeal after not being disgraced over 7f on debut also at Wolverhampton six weeks ago, coming home fourth of ten and should come on for the experience and I think that this pair will be involved again today.

Of the debutants, Rogue Officer might be the one to take note of, he's a son of Soldiers Call, a half-brother to several winners including Misleading Promise, Return To Dubai and Frutireu and he's out of Nurse Nightingale, who made the frame in seven of her own ten A/W starts.

Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

The second division of the above race gives us even less to go on! Only three have raced before and none of them have really impressed, so the chances are that the debutants will beat them.

Empress Matilda's dam won three times and was a runner-up twice from six starts at 6f and 7f including wins at a Group 2 & 3 and a Gr 1 silver. She's a half-sister to Saint Lawrence, who won a 7f Listed race and her yard's (Roger Varian) debutants are flying right now, plus they have a stack of stats to back them up...

Tattie Bogle is a half-brother to winners including Column, Teaser and Tartlette, with the former a winner on the All-Weather. The Johnston yard have a good record at this venue and Tattier Bogle could easily get amongst the money here, as could Lightupyourlife, whose dam was a winner up to 7.5f. This Kodiac filly cost 37,000 Euros as a yearling and is a half sister to A/W winner Livinthelife, who has won up to 1m1f.

Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo maiden over 1m...

A modest looking contest that shouldn't take much winning and the obvious starting point would have to be Spetses who was beaten by less than two lengths on debut four weeks ago, finishing second of ten behind a horse that already had a win under his belt and we already highlighted his yard's form in the race above.

And if Spetses is an obvious candidate for the win, then you have to say that Rogue State is the ideal suggestion to make the frame, having finished third in all six career starts to date. She gets weight from most of her rivals and will wear a tongue-tie for the first time today.

As for a third pick, none of the others with race experience excite me, so it could fall to debutant Sedbury. This Pearl Secret colt is a brother to 1m-1½m winner Goldsborough and a half-brother to both 6f winner Canadian Royal & 1m-1½m winner My Boy Sepoy and hails from a yard with a good record at this track...

Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Three runners, How Impressive, Harvard Sound and It Just Takes Time come here on hat-tricks, so at least two will see their winning streak end. Chuzzlewit is the only runner without a win in the last six starts, having lost his last eight, but he was third of twelve at Ayr last time out. Silver Samurai was also third last time out, whilst Street Kid and Lattaash have both made the frame in each of their last two runs, with Noodle Mission's form this year reading 31211216 with the step up to Class 2 LTO just a bit too much and this course/distance winner now steps back down in class. Bottom weight Chalk Mountain was also sixth last time out, ending a run of three straight A/W victories, but that has moved his mark from 68 to 82 and that might be his ceiling for now.

Our pace analyser for this race looks like this...

...which suggests that the following half dozen runners might be better suited...

...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist would be...

...and in a race where you can make claims for plenty of these, I'm taking a simplistic approach with the three that feature on both graphics above ie (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run

Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Baltic seemed to struggle on the heavy ground at Newmarket last time out, coming home last of eight and ending a 5-race winning streak that included two handicap wins on the Tapeta at Newcastle, so he's have every chance back on the A/W.

Saratoga Gold hasn't won any of his last thirteen races since a win at Kempton almost 15 months ago and probably comes here in the worst form of the four runners.

Berkshire Sundance won well at Kempton in September 2023 before taking almost a year off and on his return at Chester last month he got upset in the stalls, reared at the start and jockey Jason Watson. Oisin Murphy had ridden him to victory at Kempton and returned to the saddle at Salisbury last time out, where the pair won again.

Le Rouge Chinois could only manage to finish 8th of 9 over this course and distance a fortnight ago, which was a disappointment considering he had the run of the run from the front end. he faded badly late on and was eventually over 13 lengths off the pace.

On form alone, you'd want to be with Baltic and Berkshire Sundance and it's the former who has the best A/W stats over the last couple of years and is only 4lbs higher than his last win...

...and with him looking likely to stalk Le Rouge Chinois in the early stages, Baltic would the one I'd back to win this if I was looking for a winner...