Tag Archive for: trainer stats

Racing Insights, Wednesday 23/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Bath
  • 3.00 York
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 5.05 Bath
  • 5.10 Sligo

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year course form...

Of all the races above (free & TS report), the Great Voltigeur (3.00 York) is clearly the highest rated, but with just five going to post, I'll swerve that one. Sadly the rest of our highlighted races are at Class 4 and below, the most valuable of which is the race featuring in-form James Tate's 3yo gelding Endless Power, who runs in the 8.22 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Endless Power was a winner last time out, as was Starshiba, whilst Baileysgutfeeling, Two Tempting, Owl Island, Florida and Super Den have all won at least one of their last five races.

Four of these (Spinaround, Baileysgutfeeling, Owl Island and Florida) drop down a grade from Class 3 action with the latter having just a second handicap run, whilst First View is down two classes here. Featured runner and LTO winner Endless Power is the only class riser, as he makes a handicap debut on his step up from a Class 5 run four weeks ago.

Most of his rivals have also had a recent (last 45 days) run, but Spinaround has been off for almost ten weeks and Florida has been away almost fifteen weeks and might need a run. He's tongue tied for the first time here, whilst Baltimore Boy debuts in a visor and it's a first run in blinkers for Million Thanks.

First View and Super Den have both won over this course and distance in the past and Baileysgutfeeling, Starshiba, Ernie's Valentine and Florida have all scored on this track. Spinaround, Starshiba, Million Thanks and Endless Power are all former mile winners on other tracks.

Collateral/relative A/W form is displayed on Instant Expert, where First View would appear to be in his element...

...as his four-race A/W career reads 1121, all over course and distance with the defeat coming by just a head and his last run here saw him land a Class 2 contest off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so this track & trip specialist might be very dangerously weighted here if recapturing some old form. Spinaround, Baltimore Boy, Million Thanks and Venetian look most vulnerable albeit off small sample sizes and the only real concerns I have from the above are Starshiba's 1 from 7 on standard to slow and Two Tempting now being 7lbs higher than a course and distance win by a neck two starts ago.

The place stats don't actually help to clear things up. If anything they muddy the waters further by showing that this might well end up being rather competitive, see for yourself...

I think we'll put that to one side and have a look at our Draw Analyser of past similar races to see if any of these might have been handed an advantage by stall means of stall allocation...

...and whilst it's not the biggest draw bias you'll ever see, the inference is that you'd want to be in the lower half of the draw here, whilst our Pace Analyser says that those races above have benefited those most willing to set the tempo...

...so we're looking for runners keen to get on with things and this is how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...and I think that I want 2.50 to be my cut-off point here, especially as all those below that line have been held-up at least once in their last four outings. If I then order the top seven from that chart into draw order and over lay the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...where we've ended up with seven of the eight lowest drawn being the seven with the best pace profile from the race.

Summary

I'm happy at the way we've ended up with seven runners to consider from thirteen and the process is robust, but with the bookies only paying four places, I have to get rid of at least three and I think that Bottom weight and possible leader Venetian is the weakest of the seven. he has been well beaten in three of his last five runs (all defeats) since winning narrowly at Wolverhampton back in November 2022 and is still 2lbs higher than that win, so he's a no from me.

Of the rest, there's only really Million Thanks that I wouldn't be too keen on. He has won just one of sixteen to date and is on a run of thirteen defeats, six of which represent his entire A/W career, although he has been a course and distance runner-up twice this year. He has been beaten by 6 lengths or more in three of his last five, so he's out of my reckoning too.

Which leaves us with five runners for four places and I think all five have a good chance of making the frame. In card order and using Bet365's odds as of 5.10pm Tuesday (the only book open)...

...my initial response would be to (a) be a little disappointed that all my possibles are at the sharper end of the market and 9b0 place a small E/W bet on First View. He's down in class, scores well on Instant Expert and could be dangerous off today's mark.

The one that I think will win is Two Tempting, he's still progressing well and with a win and four runner-up finishes from his seven runs those season allied to finishes of 14221 in five handicap efforts over course and distance, he's sure to be there or thereabouts, so another small bet at a fair price of 9/2 is in order here. I've absolutely nothing against backing any of Owl Island, Florida or Endless Power for a place either, other than I'm not keen on going that short in the market for such a bet, but I'd not be surprised to see them in the frame.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Beverley
  • 5.25 Beverley
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following two yards in good recent form...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Of the nine races highlighted above the first of the free cards is for a Listed event, but I'm not wild about lightly raced 2yr olds, so next best is actually the 4.20 Beverley, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7½f on good to firm ground...

Reputation is considerably older than the rest of the field, but he is our sole LTO winner here, yet he might need the run after a break of almost a year. Autumn Festival, Metahorse, Craven and Ring of Gold all had top three finishes with the latter denoted as a fast finisher : perhaps he needs to get going sooner!

The top three in the weights (Autumn Festival, Mudamer and On The River) all drop down from a recent run at Class 3 and Mudamer is the only one of the three yet to win over course and distance. In fact none of the rest of the field have achieved this, but Beltane has at least woin here at Beverley over 1m½f back in June, two starts ago.

We know that Reputation has been away for a good while, but apart from Ron O's 103-day absence, the rest of the runners here have all raced in the last six weeks.

Instant Expert says that a few of these are shy of wins under expected conditions...

...although they do seem to have the knack of making the frame...

From those numbers above, I'd be a little concerned about Beltane's inability at Class 4 and the fact that Satin Snake just doesn't win on turf. Ron O is some 18lbs higher than his last/only turf win, but he has won the A/W recently off just 2lbs lower than today, whilst Craven would probably prefer the ground to be closer to good than it is to firm. Top weight Autumn Festival looks the one to beat on those figures above, but stall 11 of 11 might not be helpful, let's check...

The draw stats are actually a little misleading here, as if we split the field into thirds ie low, mid and high draw, then a high draw looks favourable...

...but stall by stall suggests that whilst stalls 9 & 10 have done well, those drawn 11 or 12 have struggled...

...and the PRB data suggests a lower draw is better...

I'm going to mark that as inconclusive and focus upon the pace data from those races above, as I've got it in my head that this is where the race will be won or lost and those races above have gone as follows...

...with front-running horses definitely the ones to be on and this focus on pace rather than draw is also reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, who will lead? Well, we don't actually know, but by looking at how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd probably want to be focusing on the upper half of that table.

Summary

So, we're looking for those in the upper half of the pace chart who should enjoy conditions here and who also come here in some semblance of reasonable form.

Beltane looks like the pace-maker, he gets good to firm ground and has two wins and two places from his last five runs, so plenty of positives there. he hasn't got a great record at Class 4, but that's probably why he's 13/2 from Bet365 (the only book open at 3.50pm Tuesday), but he'd be in my top three for this one, as would On The River, who'll also be up with the pace.

He has won four of his last seven and won here over course and distance two starts ago. He's good at Class 4 and at this venue, he's down in class but would probably prefer the ground to be softer. The doubts over the ground are again reflected in his price, as he too is priced at 13/2 in the early market.

My final one for the frame is probably top weight Autumn Festival, he's also likely to be up with the pace, scored really well on Instant Expert (especially for a place) and is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark. He has made the frame in two of his last three starts, both at Class 3; he's down in class here and a pound lighter than LTO and at 8/1 would be my E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Pontefract
  • 3.30 Brighton
  • 3.50 Pontefract
  • 6.40 Sligo
  • 7.50 Yarmouth

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the 'best' of those races above appears to be the stayers' handicap at Ponty, the 3.50 Pontefract. it's an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 2m1 on good ground...

None of trhese even managed to make the frame last time out, which is a little disconcerting, but all bar Ashington have won at least once in their last five starts and he does at least drop down a level here, whilst the bottom two on the card, Giovanni Change and Ironopolis are both down two classes.

Ironopolis is also the sole 3yo in the field, so he'll get a 13lb weight allowance here, but he'll probably need it as I see him as the weakest runner in the field. We've no new equipment being used and no yard movements and all of them have raced in the last 11-45 days, so we should have no fitness issues either.

Only Yorkindness and Flint Hill have won over this trip before and they've done it here at Pontefract, whilst Champagne City (2m2f), Carrigillihy (1m4f) and Giovanni Change (2m5½f) have also all won at this venue.

Instant Expert suggests that Champagne City should have conditions to suit, but that Carrigillihy is the track specialist...

...but his record at class 4 looks almost as poor as Flint Hill's. The latter also hasn't fared well on good ground with El Borracho also having issues winning on good.

The draw stats would initially tend to suggest that those drawn lowest have an advantage, but (i) it's a very small sample size, (ii) the data is skewed by stall 1 winning nearly a third of the races in the sample and (iii) I'm really not convinced the draw can make you lose an 8-runner race over 2m1f, but here's the data anyway...

...and I suspect that pace might have a bigger bearing on the result. That small sample of races above have been won as follows...

...suggesting those racing further forward have just put targets on their backs and that the hold-up horses have been left with too much to do, so it we could get a runner with an average pace score around the 2.00 mark, we might have something, so so let's check the field's most recent outings...

...which doesn't really clarify the issue too much, but if we ignore Carrigillihy's last effort where he led and faded badly, he does tend to run to that 2.00/mid-division position.

Summary

Carrigillihy's record around this track is excellent and he's probably got the ideal pace profile to win here again, but he's a 5/2 favourite who has a career record of 1 win and 1 place from 14 attempts at Class 4. He's also 0 from 7 beyond his preferred trip of 1m4f (where he is 5 from 17) and is up in trip here.

I suspect he's going to be there or thereabouts and could well win, but 5/2 is way too short for my liking. I did actually like El Borracho initially, but he's likely to do too much too soon and whilst he could be good for a place, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me. The one who might well outrun his odds and make the frame as an E/W possible is the 11/1 outsider Champagne City. Conditions look ideal for him and he's only 2lbs higher than when winning here over 2m2f back in April.

I won't be digging too deeply into my pockets for the bet, but I'd hope for a decent effort from him.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.55 Redcar
  • 6.40 Galway
  • 7.15 Galway
  • 7.27 Sandown
  • 8.12 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with two of the in-form yards above both having a runner in the same race from our daily free list, it makes sense to see how Balboa and Roost might get on against six other runners in the 7.27 Sandown, a Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on good to soft ground, The track is already softer in places and more rain is forecast for this group...

Kyle of Lochalsh and Alhambra Palace were both last time winners, whilst top-weight and sole female in the race Grand Providence seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins. Elsewhere Cavern Club and Enochdhu both won four starts ago, but Royal Deeside and our two featured runners, Roost and Balboa, are all five-race maidens.

Royal Deeside also runs for the second time in handicap company and Roost runs for the first time since being gelded during a 78-day absence : all his rivals have raced in the last month or so. Kyle of Lochalsh is the only class mover here, stepping up one level after getting off the mark at Newbury three weeks ago and bottom weight/featured horse Balboa makes a yard debut for Milton Harris almost three weeks after finishing 5th of 11 over course and distance on the last of his five (all unplaced) runs for Jamie Osborne.

The field have only won 8 of their combined 47 outings (17% SR) with no course nor distance wins, but they have made the frame on 15 (31.9%) of their runs to date, so we might glean a little more from the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from a win perspective...

The field haven't raced in the wet too often, but both Alhambra Palace and Cavern Club have shown some ability to deal with good to soft ground, whilst Roost and Enochdhu probably won't mind if more rain does come. The latter, however, has yet to make the frame in five starts at Class 4, wheras Cavern Club has a win and two places from his five efforts. No course or distance winners, of course, but Kyle of Lochalsh did win over 1m5½f at Newbury last time out and if conditions make this a slog, then Grand Providence's win over 2m½f on her last start might well come in to play.

Cavern Club wouldn't be an obvious pick here, but his place stats are decent enough and he's drawn in stall 1 giving him the rail to help keep him straight. Somewhat surprisingly, albeit off a really small data sample, there's actually a hint of a draw bias at play here, with low draws (especially stalls 1 & 2) doing better than expected...

...although I do still think that a horse's chances of winning a race over 1m6f shouldn't really be decided by which of eight stalls he/she breaks from and that race tactics aka pace would be more of a determining factor and if I look back at that small sample of races above, it looks like those runners who race prominently just off the leader(s) would be the type of horse you'd want to be with...

...and based on the way this relatively inexperienced field have approached their races so far, I'd expect Enochdhu and Balboa to set the pace here wit the likes of Roost, Kyle of Lochalsh and Grand Providence being the stalking horses waiting to pick them off...

Summary

I suspect this race will run to form and that the three LTO winners will be the ones to focus on here. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, I'd had no odds available to discuss, but I'd imagine that Alhambra Palace might well go off quite short without offering too much value and that the one to side with could be Kyle of Lochalsh. He's drawn low, will race prominently, should get the trip and won well last time out. Hopefully I can get somewhere near the 5/1 mark about him when the markets open.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/07/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Bath
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 5.55 Bath
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 8.10 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated plenty of runners from a couple of in-form yards and have also picked out a trainer with a good long-term track record...

 

It's a pretty poor day of racing if truth be told with 5 UK courses holding 31 races with none rated any higher than Class 4. Thankfully one of those appears on our list of free races, so let's have a look at the 8.10 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

A pretty inexperienced bunch here, as you might expect from a group of 3 yr olds. They've raced a total of 46 times so far, making the frame on 14 occasions (30.4%) and winning 7 times (15.2%). Gozo, Stage Show and Zodiac Star are still maidens after 6, 6 and 4 attempts respectively, from which Stage Show has never even made the frame.

Conversely, Morcar won last time out and Gallant Lion comes in search of a hat-trick after wins at Brighton and Newbury in the past month. Two of the maidens, Zodiac Star & Gozo should be assisted by dropping down towo classes here, the third maiden, Stage Show, actually steps up a grade here, as do our two LTO winners, Morcar and Gallant Lion.

Dumfires drops down a class for what will be his second handicap run, as it will also be for Golspie and LTO winner Morcar, whilst Zodiac Star makes a handicap debut here and wears a hood for the first time, whilst Golspie sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Six of the nine runners have already won at least one race (only Gallant Lion has won twice!), but none have won here at Sandown before (Dancing In Paris & Stage Show are the only ones to have raced here), but both of Gallant Lion's victories have been over today's trip, as was Morcar's success LTO.

Dumfries might well need a run after a break of almost 16 weeks, but the remainder of the field have all seen action in the last six weeks with both Gozo and Gallant Lion having raced in the last fortnight. In addition to the other facts, Instant Expert tells us that six of the field have raced on good ground before, generating two wins, whilst Golspie is the only one of the six previous Class 4 flat runners to have won at this grade...

None of these have really raced enough to give too many causes for concern, but the fact that Stage Show has yet to make the frame after six efforts has to be noted. Dancing In Paris has a weak record at Class 4, but does like good ground and the vast majority of the field should be fine with the trip. Dancing In Paris is now 9lbs higher than his last win and is only rated 1lb lower than his last run, which saw him beaten by more than ten lengths, so that's got to raise doubts here. Morcar and Gallant Lion are up 8lbs and 7lbs respectively for their LTO wins, but both (especially Morcar) won relatively comfortably, so might not yet be anchored by the weight.

It would be easy to assume from the draw sectors, that those drawn highest would have a distinct advantage here...

...but I'd temper those thoughts by (a) pointing to the place stats, which are pretty consistent across the board, (b) showing you the stall-by-stall data, which looks a bit skewed in places and (c) reproducing the PRB3 data...

There may well be a bit of a flat spot around the data for stalls 4 & 5 that is overcompensated by the number of wins from stalls 6 & 7, but I'm not entirely convinced the draw is going to make or break a runner's chances here over 1m2f on good ground. That can't necessarily be said for race/race tactics, as there's a clear template for how to win such races...

...and that involves getting out quickly and leading. The way this field have raced in their relatively short careers would tend to suggest that Gallant Lion might struggle to land the hat-trick here...

Summary

Despite the pace chart above, I do think that the LTO winners Gallant Lion and Morcar are the horses to beat here and it's no surprise to see them installed as early (3.40pm) 3/1 joint favourites. Morcar won far more comfortably than Gallant Lion last time out and does appear to have a better pace profile, so if pushed to pick between the two, I'd be looking for Morcar to just edge Gallant Lion out.

Referring back to the pace chart, all Band of Steel's decent efforts have been on the A/W, he has shown little on turf and Dancing In Paris is too high in the weights, as I suggested earlier. Zodiac Star, however, might well improve for a step up in trip and he is down two classes here and might well be of E/W interest, especially as he's effectively 4lbs lower than LTO. You can get 10/1 about him at the moment and that might not be a bad shout. Similar applies to Golspie at 14's, he won on his debut and is very lightly raced. There's a touch of the unknowns about him, but he wouldn't have to do too much to get involved here in what looks a mediocre field.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/07/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 6.40 Bath
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only generated the following runner for me to consider...

That said, Dalby Forest does run in one of our free races, so let's focus upon that 5.40 Lingfield race. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground. The track is firm in places, but with rain forecast, I'd imagine it'll remain good to firm for these runners...

...from which we have no LTO winners, but with a three race form line of 212, Skallywag Bay brings the best results to the table. She has won two of her last six plus those two runner-up finishes, Dalby Forest has a win and a place from his last three, Dynamite Katie has a win and a place from her last five and Betweenthesticks won seven races ago. Lipsink, Just That Lord and So Smart are winless in their last 10, 7 and 9 races respectively, but the latter has at least made the frame in three of his five runs this season.

Both Skallywag Bay and Dnamic Katie step up one class here, whilst it's a yard debut for bottom weight and oldest (10 yo now!) runner Just That Lord, who might well need the run after an 11-month absence. Featured horse Dalby Forest hasn't raced for four months, but the remainder of the field have all had at least one outing in the last four weeks.

None of these have won at Lingfield before, mind you only two of them (Dalby Forest & Just That Lord) have raced on this turf strip, visiting here just once each (Dalby Forest did at least make the frame when third of nine over 6f on his sole Flat run to date, back in May 2022!). The trip, however, shouldn't be an issue as all bar Dynamic Katie are past 5f winners (her win was over 7f at Dundalk), although Skallywag Bay's 5f win was on the A/W here three weeks ago.

We have two fillies in the race, Skallywag Bay and Dynamic Katie and they are two of our three 3yo runners (Betweenthesticks being the other) who receive a very handy 5lb weight for age allowance here, which could be crucial over a fast 5f. Instant Expert doesn't really paint a great picture of this field from a Flat win perspective...

...and whilst I don't know a great deal about these runners, I am aware that some of them have consistently come close to winning those races above...

...where So Smart catches the eye with some consistent performances under expected conditions. Sadly his recent run of making the frame in three from five this season isn't bringing his mark down to a winning one and he's up a pound here after a half length defeat last time out, pushing his OR back to 6lbs higher than his last win, but those numbers above suggest he's due to go well yet again.

He is, of course, drawn widest of all seven and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f on quick ground, there has been an advantage from being drawn highest...

...suggesting that he and Lipsink might well be best suited by occupying stalls 6 & 7. The Pace Analysis of those races speaks for itself...

...although the resultant pace/draw heat map might spring a shock by suggesting that it is the low-drawn leaders who fare best of all...

I think this implies that the pace aspect of the contest might well be important than the draw and this ties in with my own thoughts. There really shouldn't be much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight sprint, but early pace quite often wins the race. It takes a super effort to come from off the pace over a quick five furlongs and if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, this could be a right tear-up...

Summary

I don't think the pace and/or draw stats are going to help us much here. There shouldn't be an advantage from any part of the draw and the inference from the draw data is they're all inclined to 'go for it'. The vulnerable ones could well be Dalby Forest and Just That Lord after long lay-offs and they might need the run, which is always conducive to going well in a burn-up.

Skallywag Bay is in the best form and gets a useful 5lb weight allowance, which might well make her the one to beat here, but is she a 6/4 or 13/8 shot? Probably not. I'm not saying she can't or shouldn't win this, but I'd not want to back her at those odds. Next best on my reckoning is So Smart, whose consistency might be the key here, he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn and has been knocking on the door this season. Odds of 7/2 aren't overly generous, but are at least fair, so I'll have a couple of quid there.

Some firms will pay three places and Lipsink will be popular, based on his instant Expert data, but I think that former Class 3 winner Betweenthesticks has the potential to make the frame here, especially as he too gets that 5lb allowance and his 5lb claimer has ridden him to victory twice already. 6/1 or even 13/2 would normally be a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but if you're getting three places in a seven-horse race, that's acceptable.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/07/23

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Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!

But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.35 Tipperary
  • 4.42 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Bath
  • 7.35 Bath
  • 7.45 Tipperary

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners to consider...

...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...

Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.

Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.

Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.

None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...

...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...

In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.

We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...

Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...

Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.

Summary

Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.

As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.58 Worcester
  • 3.28 Worcester
  • 4.28 Worcester
  • 5.30 Naas
  • 7.00 Naas
  • 7.20 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

Both my TS qualifiers list and the selection of 'free' races are heavily Worcester-oriented, so we'll go there for the highest rated contest on the card, the 4.28 Worcester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Plenty of these have some good results in their more recent form line; Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge both won last time out, whilst Clear The Runway is 5 from 7, 6 from 9 and 7 from 11! Accidental Rebel is 4 from 6, Solo Saxophone is 2 from 5 and Finisk River has won four of his last six. Merry Berry is 4 from 5 and Jamacho is 3 from 5, 4 from 8 and 5 from 10. Conversely Luttrell Lad is winless in his last dozen outings and Celestial Horizon has lost his last eight, beating just nine runners across those races in which he failed complete four times!

Those two on the cold list are amongst just four runners (with Clear The Runway & Eritage) who ran at this grade last time out, as Solo Saxophone, Finisk River, Merry Berry and Jamacho all step up from Class 3, whilst our two LTO winners, Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge are up from Class 4 here. Accidental Rebel, however, drops down from a heavy defeat in a Group 2 race at Kelso back in March, although he did win in that grade two starts ago.

He hasn't raced for 116 days now and whilst he might well need the run, he hasn't been away as long as the likes of Finisk River, Eritage and Merry Berry, whose layoffs are 214, 312 and 382 days respectively. This quartet aside, the field have all raced in the last six weeks and this will be Everyonesgame's handicap debut after Class 4 wins in a maiden and a novice event in April & May of this year.

Luttrell Lad has already won here at Worcester in a 2m hurdle, Jamacho has won over hurdles twice here at 2m½f, whilst Clear The Runway landed a Class 2, 2m1f chase here back in October. He has also won over today's trip elsewhere, as have Eritage, Everyonesgame and Merry Berry, whilst Accidental Rebel, Solo Saxophone and Finisk River have all scored over track and trip, leaving just Celestial Horizon and Galata Bridge to have won neither!

Instant Expert says the entire field have at least one good ground hurdle/bumper win to their names and that two of them have already won at Class 2. We already know that Accidental Rebel is a former Class 1 winner, but so is Celestial Horizon...

Solo Saxophone and Accidental Rebel look well suited here with the latter really coming to the fore in handicap hurdles...

...but he is 10lbs higher than his last win, which could prove problematical and three of his four career wins have been at Class 4.

The recent pace profiles for this field are interesting, as it looks like we might well have four of them battling it out for the lead, whilst the rest sit off and watch until later...

Merry Berry likes good ground and has a decent record over this trip, so if this track/trip suits front-runners, then she might well be in luck. And having consulted our Pace Analyser...

...that leading quartet are likely to be of great interest.

Summary

Before I looked closely at the race, I liked Galata Bridge. Good ground suits him, he gets on well with today's jockey and he won nicely last time out, but he's up in weight, trip and class here, so I'll be leaving him alone. If Accidental Rebel runs like two starts ago and not like LTO, then he'd be difficult to beat, but at a best price of 5/1, there's not much value there for me and the same applies to the 6/1 offered about Merry Berry. She's suited by going, trip and pace, but I'd want to back her E/W and 6's are a bit short for that purpose.

Should the mare drift, then she'd be a valid E/W proposition, but until then I think Solo Saxophone is the one to do that. He has good numbers across Instant Expert, will be up with the pace and was sharpened up on the Flat recently. He'd need plenty of luck to win this, but at 11/1 is a solid E/W chance.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Worcester
  • 5.35 Ascot
  • 6.25 Wexford
  • 6.35 Ripon
  • 8.28 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Adrian Keatley's horses have had a good month winning 7 of 16 handicaps and he has two runners at Ripon, where he has had 5 winners and 4 furthers placers from 13 handicap runs in the last year. One of those two runners, Dungart Glory, runs in one of our daily 'free' races, so it makes sense (to me, at least!) to tie the daily free feature in with the free race list and take a look at the 6.35 Ripon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed it stays that way), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a righthanded 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

There's not much recent winning form amongst this group with only Gareeb's win three starts ago and Emily's Eclipse's win four races ago the only successes in the field's last five outings. Anjo Bonita, however, might well be an 8-race maiden but she has made the first three home in each of her last seven outings. Khinjani has placed in her last three and Bloomwithgrace came within three quarters of a length of breaking her own duck last time out.

That narrow defeat for Bloomwithgrace was at the class above this race, so she could benefit from the drop, as might Anjo Bonita, whilst Gareeb was last seen at Class 3, although she was last home of eleven some 21 lengths adrift.

The three 'form' horses, Bloomwithgrace, Khinjani and Anjo Bonita are all unexposed in handicap company, as the latter makes a hcp debut here and it's just the second crack for the other pair. Elsewhere, Emily's Eclips wears first-time cheekpieces, whilst it's just the second run in a visor for Kittykarma.

Our featured horse, Dungar Glory, not only concedes weight all round, but has to contend with a layoff of over five months since she was last home of 8 at Wolverhampton in early January, whilst the vast majority of her rivals have all raced in the last month apart from Emily's Eclipse who might also need the run after an eleven week break.

Dungar Glory is, however, the only one of the eight to have previously won here at Ripon, having scored over a mile back in August 2022 and none of the field have won at today's trip. Mind you, the field only share four wins between them with Dungar Glory successful at 7f and a mile, Emily's Eclipse scored over 7½f and Gareeb's win three starts/two months ago was also over a mile, albeit on Southwell's tapeta.

The fact that the field are a combined 4 from 64 (6.25% SR), we're probably better switching straight to the place stats on Instant Expert, as they have at least made the frame in 29 (45.3%) of those 64 outings...

...where the ones catching the eye most are...

...with those drawn at either end (Emily's Eclipse & Dungar Glory) looking the weakest of that half dozen. I've only omitted crossed off the runners in stalls 1 and 5 so far, so the full draw stats for similar contests might help us narrow the field down further, as our Draw Analyser suggests those drawn more centrally have fared the best...

...but with the ground being quicker in places and the horses having 10 furlongs to undo the effect of the draw, it might well be running styles/tactics that decide this one and our Pace Analyser is pretty clear cut on this...

Those up with the pace win 2.25 times more often than those in mid-division or further back and leaders are easily best placed to make the frame. That's not to say you can't win/place from off the pace here, but based on the field's recent outings...

...you'd want to be more Anjo Bonita than Emily's Escape, I'd guess.

Summary

Anjo Bonita has been knocking on the door (3222322) for about eight months now and a drop in class will help her here. She's not badly treated at the weights for her handicap debut and she'd be the one I'd fancy from this group. She's the pace angle in the race and might well prove difficult to reel in. Bloomwithgrace is the one most likely to give chase and that should help her to make the frame, whilst the other form horse Khinjani has two prominent runs from her last three and could be the other placer here.

I had no prices to work with at 4.35pm on Tuesday, so any decision on bets would have to wait, but I'd be looking at Anjo Bonita to win here (5/1 or 11/2 would be nice, but I doubt I'll get it) ahead of Bloomwithgrace and/or Khinjani. I suspect that pair might even be shorter than Anjo, so I doubt there'll be an E/W play for me.

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Curragh
  • 7.10 Ripon
  • 8.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

The best of the free/TS report races seems to be the one featuring William Haggas' Ecucator on the All-Weather and whilst the field is a bit bigger than I'm generally comfortable with, there's always the prospect of a decent E/W bet with most bookies paying 4 places (Sky go 5, of course!) in the 8.25 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Second Slip is our only LTO winner, but he hasn't raced in over 21months and might be a little rusty here, as might Winterwatch, Enthrallment, Graphite and Moving Lights after respective breaks of 231, 244, 247 and 312 days, as they take on nine others who have all been seen in the last six weeks.

Form-wise, Educator, Tashi, Winterwatch, Enthrallment and Dal Mallart all made the frame on their last outing, whilst of the 14-strong field only Savvy Knight and Tashi are winless in seven (or 11 in Tashi's case!)

Ten of the field ran at this level when last seen with Dal Mallart stepping up from Class 4 and top-weight Stay Well, Moving Light and Celtic Art all coming down from Class 2. Second Slip had wind surgery during his long lay-off and now ears a tongue-tie for the first time and this will be Enthrallment's first run for Kevin de Foy after leaving Ireland and Dermot Weld behind.

Winterwatch has won here over two miles (on his last A/W run) and over this trip at Catterick, whilst Second Slip, Graphite Savvy Knight, Celtic Art and Neandra also have 1m4f successes under their belts, whilst our two other former course winners, Stay Well and Moving Light have both scored here over track & trip.

Instant Expert then adds to those stats by showing that nine have already raced on standard to slow surfaces, producing wins for four of them and we also have six Class 3 winners on Flat/AW...

The top two on the card are the ones initially catching the eye here, but Winterwatch's two going wins is interesting too and I suspect we'll learn more from the place data...

...from which, I think I want to focus on...

I'm aware that such a brutal cut early on might have cost me the winner or a placer, but in these bigger fields, I only really want horses with relevant past form. This six are spread across the track in stalls 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 & 12 on a track/trip with no huge discernible draw bias...

...although some of the lower drawn horses have fared best...

...which would be better news for Stay Well than it would be for say, Winterwatch.  And as regard for pace, there's very little between the six based on their last four outings...

.and with the whole field's pace scores looking like this...

...we're likely to get a falsely-run race over a course and distance where those brave enough to take it on have done well in the past...

Summary

I pick these races 'blind' and do the analysis as I go along, so I never know where we're going to end up and here we've ended up in the state of inconclusive!  The only LTO winner hasn't run for ages and most of these have a fairly recent win. Instant Expert gave me a shortlist of six based on place form and pace/draw didn't really help us at, so in these cases, you either walk away (smart move) or you use that unquantifiable extra factor : 'gut feeling'

My gut feeling tells me that I want to be with Stay Well and Winterwatch depending on price and that Moving Light from the Shortlist might go off and set the pace and hope to hold on for a top four finish. I'll be back later (just after 3pm now)when there are some odds to look at.

Now approaching 4.30pm and we've got odds from Hills, who have installed Stay Well as the 9/2 favourite and whilst I think he could be the one, I'm not really interested at that price. Winterwatch and Moving Light, however, are at 9's and 12's respectively and could be the E/W play(s) here.

Educator from the TS report is 2nd fav, but has never raced on the A/W, so 11/2 is a bit short there for me, but 8/1 is interesting about the LTO winner Second Slip. Yeah, he's been away for a good while, but his A/W form reads 3121 so he could be another candidate for the frame.

This race could get very interesting in the closing stages, but it's not one to hang your hat (or your wallet!) on.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/05/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 York
  • 4.20 Newton Abbot
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 6.20 Cork
  • 8.10 Bath
  • 8.30 Perth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Depending on your viewpoint, it's unfortunate that I can't tie the 'free' races up with the daily feature or it's good news that the two have thrown up lots of races for me to look at. And being a glass half-full kind of bloke, like I'm sure you are, I'm taking it that I've got thirteen UK races listed above, from which the 3.40 York is clearly the best on paper, but has very little data for me to share with you.

So, aside from that Group 3 race I've swerved, I'm left with a host of Class 4 or worse races, but they'll all have a winner, so let's see if we can crack the most valuable of them, the 2.05 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m2½f on good to soft ground...

The two form horses here are Monjules and Inferno Sacree who are 3 from 5 and 4 from 5 respectively, whilst featured horse Polyphonic and Swinging London have both been runners-up in each of their last two starts, but the former is winless in seven now and others on losing runs are Atholl Street at eight defeats and the 12-race maiden Fongs Way, who now makes a yard debut and UK debut since a move to Jimmy Frost (who doesn't have a great record here!).

Elsewhere Polyphonic makes just a second handicap appearance and Swinging London is in first-time cheekpieces. Top weight The Pink'n is down a class here, as are the in-form Inferno Sacree and the cold Atholl Street, but our other form horse, Monjules is up two grades here from a Flat outing but his last effort over hurdles was in this grade. He's one of just four to have won at a similar trip to this one, along with Polyphonic, Inferno Sacree (almost inevitably) and The Pink'n, who is also our only previous course winner, courtesy of a Class 3, 2m1f hurdle success almost 4 yrs ago.

Swinging London returns from a short eight-week break, but all of his rivals have raced in the last month, except Fongs Way, who hasn't been seen since he was pulled up at Cork five months ago. Other stats, taken from Instant Expert, show that just four of this field have won a NH race on good to soft ground and that five of them are previous Class 4 winners...

Not a great deal to shout about here, but Monjules, Inferno Sacree & Polyphonic do spark a little interest but Swinging London looks like he might struggle and The Plimsoll Line has toiled at this level. Place stats...

...are more encouraging for a decent Class 4 battle with so many of this field having good place numbers, but Inferno Sacree is a glaring exception, although he did win at Class 3 last time out. Winless in six efforts at this level, Swinging London has consistently made the frame, only missing out once, so he might well be a place option again here.

Pace data from past races here at Newton Abbot suggest that the further forward a horse races, the better its chances of winning...

...and this is sure to suit the front-running Inferno Sacree, based on his recent efforts...

Summary

Aside from having failed to make the frame in five previous runs at this level, Inferno Sacree ticks all the boxes for me here today. He's in great form, he won at a higher class last time out and now drops down again. Yes, he's up in the weights again, but he's won four of his last five with winning margins of 20, 5.5, 9.5 and 8.5 lengths, so will take some stopping. He has won at this trip, he has won on good to soft and is likely to lead on a front-runners' track. He's generally available at 9/2, which is more than fair.

Elsewhere, the other market principals, Monjules (3/1), Swinging London (4/1) and Polyphonic (4/1) should all run their races and end up there or thereabouts, but pace/form suggests Monjules should win that particular battle. I don't really have an E/W play here, as I thought The Pink'n was the best of those priced at 8's or bigger, but I'd want more than 8/1 for him from a hold-up position. The Plimsoll Line has an outside chance of hanging on to a place in the capable hands of Rex Dingle, but again I'd want more than 8's about him.

So for me, it's Inferno Sacree to make all and beat the chasing Monjules with Swinging London and Polyphonic battling to rein The Plimsoll Line in.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/05/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Kelso
  • 2.40 Chester
  • 4.55 Chester
  • 6.15 Fontwell Park
  • 8.15 Fontwell Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...giving me five 'free' races and four TS report races to choose from. Of these nine, the 2.40 Chester Listed contest is clearly the best on paper, but there's not a great deal of data for me to work with there. After that I'm left with a bunch of Class 4 and Class 5 races, so I'll remain at Chester for the most valuable of the eight, the 4.55 Chester, a 14-runner (a few more than I prefer!), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to soft ground...

Just one of the fourteen, Roundhay Park, won last time out and he's two from five. Maysong and Melly's Flyer both won two races ago, whilst Hodler, Roman Dragon, Gorak and He's A Gentleman have all won at least once in their last five.

The top three in the weights are ll drawn in the car park (more on that shortly) and all are down in class; Another Batt and Roman Dragon are down one class, as is Devasboy whilst Hodler drops down from Class 2, just like Maysong & Roudemental. LTO winner Roundhay Park is up 7lbs and one grade.

Ten of the field have raced in the last three weeks and both Roudemental (39 days) and San Isidro (62d) shouldn't have got too rusty, but Paws For Thought and Roman Dragon might well need a run after breaks of 197 and 221 days respectively.

We have six previous course winners in the shape of Another Batt, Roman Dragon and Devasboy over 7½f, 6f and 7½f whilst Roundhay Park, Paws For Thought & Broken Spear are all former course and distance winners. Only Roman Dragon, Roudemental, San Isidro and He's A Gentleman have yet to score over this trip.

Aside from these stats, our trusted Instant Expert feature points out just four previous good to soft winners, but also that only four have failed to win a Class 4 race...

As with many Class 4 contests, Instant Expert doesn't necessarily point you directly towards a horse to back with there being far more red than green, but it can steer you away from some possibly unlikely winners. Roundhay Park loves good to soft ground, but Paws For Thought and Maysong are a combined 1 from 14 on this going and Oso Rapido's 0 from 5 isn't great either. Paws has won 2 of 6 at Class 4, though and Roman Dragon has gone well at this level too. Strugglers in this grade are Maysong, Broken Spear, Melly's Flyer, Devasboy and He's A Gentleman, whilst none of the field have acquitted themselves particularly well over the trip.

The above is all form, so what I like to do next with these big field is look at Flat Handicap place form, which looks like this...

...and at this point, I'm only really interested in green and amber scores ie...

...and then I'm happy to discard any runner not featuring above, leaving me with (in draw order)...

...as the half of the field I want to be with. Obvious concerns here about Devasboy at this grade and Roundhay Park at the trip, whilst Broken Spear looks to have scored best ahead of Paws For Thought. I've arranged them in draw order, because it's Chester and "you can't win from out wide over 7f at Chester" or can you?

Well, you can, but it doesn't happen often...

...and those drawn higher than than stall 10 in those races are 0 from 38, which doesn't bode well for Hodler or Maysong...

As for pace, the 'bias' isn't as huge as that with the draw, but there's a definite advantage to be gained from being up with the pace. Logic alone should tell you that it's hard to pass 13 others from the back on a course that's tight and constantly turning, but these are the numbers to back up that theory...


So ideally we want a low-drawn prominent runner or leader, according to those figures, yet taken in combination with the draw, the low bias over-rides everything!

This, however, is how our runners have approached their most recent contests...

...with Paws For Thought looing the likeliest of my seven.

Summary

This looks a decent contest despite only being a Class 4 race and it's looking like Paws For Thought for me. he was a runner-up last time out, he scores well on Instant Expert for places in Flat handicaps, is drawn in the lower half of the draw and likes to get on with things early doors. The only potential problem is the 197 day lay-off prior to a run on a tight track like this, but he won here at Chester over 6f on the 5th May 2021 after 193 days off and was a runner-up beaten by a short head here over 7f, headed at the post over this trip on May 5th last year after a break of 179 days, so the MO is clear.

He's 9/2 with Bet365 and that's just about acceptable to me, I'd have preferred 5/1 or 11/2 and he might drift, but 9/2 is about OK. As for the placers, the bookies pay four here (Sky actually go to 5th) and I'd be looking inside of Paws For Thought for any possible E/W bet or horses for forecast/tricast etc purposes.

I like Oso Rapido, but he hasn't been in the best of form. Mind you, 16/1 is a decent price for E/W purposes based on his stats. Broken Spear will be there or thereabouts, but 5/1 is no E/W price for me and I've already mentally ruled Devasboy out. It's going to be tough for those drawn wider than Paws, so I'm going to leave it there.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/04/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Nottngham
  • 4.25 Nottngham
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 7.15 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners for me to consider...

...but as I don't really do the Flat in April nor Irish racing at the best of times, I'm self-restricted to picking a race from either Kempton's A/W card or the jumps meeting at Southwell and it's to the former I go, as the 7.30 race featuring Ivan Furtado's Moai is the highest rated of the race I have TS report qualifiers in. In fairness, I'm fairly sure that Moai stands little/no chance of winning the 7.30 Kempton, but hopefully there's still a bet for us from this 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

My starting point is always the card itself as it gives us an easy/gentle introduction to the runners and the five aspects I consider first are...

FORM : Arctician is the sole LTO winner and comes here on a hat-trick, having made the frame twice before a pair of wins. Golden Sands and Intercessor both won two starts ago and both have made the frame in three of their last four with the latter winning twice. Tollard Royal, Darwell Lion and Fantasy believer are the only others with a win in their last five outings, as all three won five starts ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers here, as one (Golden Sands) steps up a class, whilst six (Spinaround, Rhythm n Rock, Darwell Lion, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Cliffs of Capri) all drop down one level, whilst one (Spirit of the Bay) raced two grades higher at class 2 LTO.

WHAT'S NEW? : Featured horse Moai wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst Longlai makes a first run for Michael Wigham's yard after leaving Richard Hannon, having won just two of fifteen.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar five (Spinaround, Darwell Lion, Moai, Longlai & Intercessor) have already won here at Kempton, whilst all bar the in-form Arctician have won over a one mile trip. Six of the field (Tollard Royal, Rhythm n Rock, Spirit of the Bay, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Golden Sands) are former course and distance winners.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Six of these (Cliffs of Capri, Darwell Lion, Arctician, Moai, Fantasy Believer and Spinaround) have all raced inside the last four weeks. Golden Sands has been off for six weeks and Hieronymous for almost two months, but five of these (Rhythm n Rock, Intercessor, Spirit of the Bay, Tollard Royal & Longlai) migfht well need the run after layoffs ranging from 145 to 279 days.

The above helps me build a pros and cons list for each runner and then I check their performance on similar going/class/weight via INSTANT EXPERT...

...which based on win stats would appear to favour runners 2 to 8. Arctician seems to have struggled on the slower A/W track here at Kempton, whilst Golden Sands' numbers are at least not in the red and it may well be this inside-drawn runner might be more of a placer than a winner, so let's check the place stats too...

...where again the top half of the field (2 to 7 actually) look strongest, but Arctician's Kempton numbers do include 4 places from 7 and Golden Sands looks well set for a decent run under these conditions, but will stall 1 be a help or a hindrance, as my next port of call is...

THE DRAW : where there appears to be a definite advantage in being drawn low if you look at the graph, but the actual numbers aren't really that far apart...

...and whilst those drawn closest to the rail might well have that advantage on paper, it's likely to boil down to how they use their stalls position and that's why we need to consider...

PACE : with those races above favouring those racing furthest forward...

Based on this field's most recent outings, Golden Sands and Intercessor look like being the ones trying to blast out (from stalls 1 and 13 respectively!) early to vy for the lead with Moai, Spirit of the Bay and Cliffs of Capri the early back markers...

Now although a low draw and a leading position are the two generally favoured options, the HEAT MAP says that high drawn leaders have gone best of all here. This is possibly due to those drawn lowest getting cramped for room on the turn, but they have still won more than their fair share here...

And when we apply that heat map to out racecard in draw order, the two front-runners at either end of the draw come up very favourably indeed...

Summary

I think that the top two in the market, Tollard Royal (best priced 5/2 at 5pm) and the 5/1 Arctician are probably the best runners in the race and if I was to suggest one of those, it'd be the in-form Arctician. The fav could well need a run after 204 days off track and it has been 18 months since an A/W run and that might just be the difference. Both are drawn in the same draw sector with similar pace profiles, so I'd be siding with the longer-priced form horse today.

I'm not massively confident, mind, so it'd be small stakes on Arctician and I'm more interested in the two pace horses from each end of the stalls. They're sure to go off quickly and might well grab themselves a decent, soft lead early doors. Both are in decent nick, both are priced attractively at 18/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair paying four places. so both Golden Sands and Intercessor could be decent E/W bets here. The latter has, of course been off the track for nearly six months, so that might reduce his chances, but he has previously won after a 353-day break and both of these receive weight from the rest of the field.

As for feature horse, Moai, not finishing last would be an achievement here!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/03/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.25 Warwick
  • 4.10 Haydock
  • 4.25 Ffos Las

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have generated the following...

...with both Your Own Story & the veteran Le Coeur Net running in one of our free races. Your Own Story's race look a better one on paper, so let's head towards the 4.10 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 3m4½f on soft ground...

Featured horse Your Own Story is the one of the ten to have won last time out, but all bar Shanty Alley, Equus Dreamer and Juge Et Parti have won at least once in their last five outings with No Cruise yet winning two of five and The Questioner two of three. Burbank, however has failed to complete the last three, Sam's Adventure hasn't finished his last two, Shanty Alley has two incompletes from five as does Fortified Bay.

In-form The Questioner is up in class here, but Shanty Alley, Sam's Adventure, Rath An Iuir and No Cruise Yet all drop down a level. Sam's Adventure is turned back out after just three days, as he unseated at the first at Carlisle, whilst Equus Dreamer's ten week break is the longest of the ten runners.

No Cruise Yet is the only one of the ten to have won over a similar trip to this, achieved via a course and distance win here three starts ago, whilst Sam's Adventure's 3m2f chase success in December 2019 is the only other Haydock win mustered by this field. Mind you, four of them have never even tackled a fence here, as shown by Instant Expert...

 

...where class dropper No Cruise Yet is the obvious eyecatcher, even at 7lbs above his last win. Fortified bay has some good numbers, but struggled off today's mark LTO and I should mention The Questioner, who has no relevant chase form under these conditions, but is unexposed after just two runs over fences. He won on debut, landing a 3m2f contest at Doncaster, which earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 103 from which he duly finished third in the 3m6½f North Wales National at Bangor 12 days ago, going down by just four lengths, suggesting today's trip shouldn't be an issue and he's a soft ground winner over hurdles.

Based on similar recent races here at Haydock, you'd want to be on a horse that's up with the pace...

...and based on this field's last few outings...

...that's more good news for No Cruise Yet and Fortified Bay.

Summary

The bookies have Your Own Story (5/2) No Cruise Yet (4/1) and The Questioner (5/1) as the market principals and that's probably fair as they're the best three in the race in my opinion. That said, it's rare that the top three in the market are the first three home, so if one was to falter, that might open the door for Fortified Bay as an E/W bet, who might well outrun his 16/1 ticket (as of 6.30pm) and could be worth a quid or two, especially if your bookie pays four places.

As for the winner? It's No Cruise Yet for me at 4/1, he's in good form, scored best on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/03/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fontwell
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.20 Catterick
  • 5.35 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated the following runners on 3o-day form for me to consider...

...and of the free races and those appearing on my TS report, the 3.10 Fontwell looks the best on paper. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m 3f 67yds (after +18yd rail movement) on good ground that will be softer in places...

Bottom-weight Lifetime Legend was a seven-length winner at Catterick eight days ago and Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Kotmask and Pearly Island all had top three finishes last time out. Forever Blessed and Maclaine were both unplaced on handicap debuts LTO and now have a second crack with the latter having had wind surgery, whilst Guernesey makes a yard debut for Team Tizzard.

Pyramid Place's third place run three weekas ago was at Class 2, so he should appreciate a class drop, but Kotmask, Runswick Bay and Maclaine all step up one level from Class 4, whilst Lifetime Legend's LTO win was at Class 5. The card says that Krypton Gold is up three classes but that's from a run on the A/W, his last hurdles contest was at this level.

Forever Blessed has had a 15-week break and Runswick Bay has been off for ten weeks, but the rest have all raced in the last two months with Lifetime Legend's win eight days ago the most recent run of them all. We've no course and ditance winners, but those who have won here are Kotmask and Maclaine who have both won 2m2f hurdles here. Elsewhere, Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Runswick Bay, Pearly Island and Lifetime Legend have all been successful over similar trips to this one, whilst Instant Expert has the details re: going and class form...

...and it's a fairly uninspiring picture, I think I need to see place results before commenting further!

That looks much better, but Pearly Island looks very weak on both going and trip, Guernesey doesn't look as bad as on win form, but I'd like to focus on runners 3 to 6 here ie

Of these four...

PYRAMID PLACE has made the frame in 9 of 17 over hurdles, winning four times and has finished 3213 in his last four. He was raised 4lbs for his last win and despite a step up in class, only went down by two lengths at Wetherby recently. Down in class off the same has to put him in with a shout.

KRYPTON GOLD ran over 1m4f on the A/W most recently and that's not relly relevant to his chances here. His record over hurdles over the last year or so is very consistent finishing 21322235 with that last run being marred by a bad mistake two out when challenging. He doesn't win often enough and is probably as high in the weights as he can afford, but definite place potential.

KOTMASK might well be the one to beat here, he's unexposed after just seven starts from which he has made the frame four times, including two wins from his first two outings. He then found handicap racing a little tougher, but he has improved race by race, finishing 432 in his last three and he looks well placed for a big run here.

RUNSWICK BAY is arguably the weakest of this quartet, but has still placed in three of six over hurdles. part of the issue here is that since 6th April 2021, he has only raced three times (all over fences) and just twice since winning at Ludlow 17 months ago. He was off for over a year aftere that win and was beaten by 15 lengths on his comeback and was then pulled up when last seen on Boxing Day. No run for ten weeks now and hasn't tackled a hurdle in almost two years, he's hard to fancy up in class.

This type of race has been won in the past by those preferring to be further forward...

...and although there's no real pace in this field (suggesting a potential for a falsely run affair), Kotmask would be best suited of my highlighted quartet based on recent exploits...

...and it might well be left to Maclaine to set the fractions, whilst the other three I highlighted will all have work to do, if there is any pace.

Summary

After Instant Expert, I highlighted a 4-runner segment and i think that this is where I want to be with this group. I'd exclude Runswick Bay for reasons that should be obvious now and I'd probably have perennial placer Krypton Gold as least likely of my 1-2-3, leaving me to choose between Kotmask and Pyramid Place, with the former edging it on the pace aspect.

Kotmask is currently the 4/1 second favourite with Hills (only book open at 3.40pm), half a point longer than Pyramid Place and although two others are priced at 4/1 and 5/1, I think it's between these two here, meaning a small reverse forecast might pay off.

As for Krypton Gold, he's no stranger to making the frame and at 9/1, might well be the E/W play.