Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/01/24
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.35 Fairyhouse
- 3.50 Fairyhouse
- 6.30 Kempton
- 7.00 Kempton
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have generated the following runners for me to consider...
None of those UK races above are any better than Class 4, mind you there's only one race tomorrow that is, so we're going to look at it! It's the 3.10 Chepstow, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...
Minella Blueway won last time out after finishing third then second in his other outings under Rules and now makes a handicap debut carrying bottom weight. Lowry's Bar makes a second handicap outing as he attempts to defend his perfect three from three record over hurdles, whilst Wild Max comes here on a hat-trick, having won three of his last four, albeit all over fences. He hasn't raced for 572 days and it's 667 days since he tackled a hurdle, so he might well need the run here. Elsewhere Pentland Hills is two from six and Uncle Bert is two from seven but Espoir de Romay and Ree Okka are winless in nine and seven respectively.
We know Wild Max has been away for a good while, bu the others have all raced at least once in the last four to eight weeks and both Espoir de Romay and Uncle Bert drop down a class today with Minella Blueway going the opposite direction.
Pentland Hills and Wild Max have both yet to win at track and/or trip, but Espoir de Romay and Uncle Beret have both already won over similar distances. Lowry's Bar's second run/win over hurdles was here over 2m½f back in November, whilst the bottom two in the weights, Ree Okka and Minella Blueway are both course and distance winners, the latter doing so last time out four weeks ago, for which he is raised 3lbs as you'll see below on Instant Expert...
...which suggests that most of these will be at home on the soft ground. Pentland Hills is some 11lbs below his last winning mark and ran really well over this trip to defy a 336-day absence to finish second at Doncaster last time out. He was beaten by less than 2 lengths that day and although up 2lbs for that run, the booking of a 10lb claimer makes him really dangerously weighted. He normally races quite prominently (was hampered by a faller at the second two starts ago, though) and looks like being one of the main chasers behind confirmed front-runner Wild Max...
...if 'recent' efforts are anything to go by, that is. There's always the possibility of the field letting Wild Max have an easy lead in the expectation that he'll fold late on after such a long absence and our Pace Analyser does suggest that those racing prominently would fare best from a win perspective...
Summary
Personally I think this will boil down to form and become a contest between Lowry's Bar and Minella Blueway. The former is up 6lbs and up 4f in trip, whilst the latter won here over course and distance. He's also up in weight, but only by 3lbs and is up in class, but did canter home with plenty in hand from 2 out on his way to an 11-length win and although I expect it to be tight, I'll take Minella Blueway to beat Lowry's Bar here.
We're not getting rich taking a 3/1 shot to beat a 2/1 favourite, sadly, but that's how I see it. Of the rest, I agree with the market, as I see the 9/2 3rd fav Pentland Hills as the danger off a low weight and after a good comeback run.