Tag Archive for: trainer stats

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/01/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 3.50 Fairyhouse
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

None of those UK races above are any better than Class 4, mind you there's only one race tomorrow that is, so we're going to look at it! It's the 3.10 Chepstow, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Minella Blueway won last time out after finishing third then second in his other outings under Rules and now makes a handicap debut carrying bottom weight. Lowry's Bar makes a second handicap outing as he attempts to defend his perfect three from three record over hurdles, whilst Wild Max comes here on a hat-trick, having won three of his last four, albeit all over fences. He hasn't raced for 572 days and it's 667 days since he tackled a hurdle, so he might well need the run here. Elsewhere Pentland Hills is two from six and Uncle Bert is two from seven but Espoir de Romay and Ree Okka are winless in nine and seven respectively.

We know Wild Max has been away for a good while, bu the others have all raced at least once in the last four to eight weeks and both Espoir de Romay and Uncle Bert drop down a class today with Minella Blueway going the opposite direction.

Pentland Hills and Wild Max have both yet to win at track and/or trip, but Espoir de Romay and Uncle Beret have both already won over similar distances. Lowry's Bar's second run/win over hurdles was here over 2m½f back in November, whilst the bottom two in the weights, Ree Okka and Minella Blueway are both course and distance winners, the latter doing so last time out four weeks ago, for which he is raised 3lbs as you'll see below on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that most of these will be at home on the soft ground. Pentland Hills is some 11lbs below his last winning mark and ran really well over this trip to defy a 336-day absence to finish second at Doncaster last time out. He was beaten by less than 2 lengths that day and although up 2lbs for that run, the booking of a 10lb claimer makes him really dangerously weighted. He normally races quite prominently (was hampered by a faller at the second two starts ago, though) and looks like being one of the main chasers behind confirmed front-runner Wild Max...

...if 'recent' efforts are anything to go by, that is. There's always the possibility of the field letting Wild Max have an easy lead in the expectation that he'll fold late on after such a long absence and our Pace Analyser does suggest that those racing prominently would fare best from a win perspective...

Summary

Personally I think this will boil down to form and become a contest between Lowry's Bar and Minella Blueway. The former is up 6lbs and up 4f in trip, whilst the latter won here over course and distance. He's also up in weight, but only by 3lbs and is up in class, but did canter home with plenty in hand from 2 out on his way to an 11-length win and although I expect it to be tight, I'll take Minella Blueway to beat Lowry's Bar here.

We're not getting rich taking a 3/1 shot to beat a 2/1 favourite, sadly, but that's how I see it. Of the rest, I agree with the market, as I see the 9/2 3rd fav Pentland Hills as the danger off a low weight and after a good comeback run.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/01/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.50 Newbury
  • 2.10 Southwell
  • 3.05 Newbury
  • 3.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated some runners from in-form yards to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Sadly, the weather is playing havoc with racing again, so I'm going ignore all those races above and focus upon the All-Weather action. Sadly that's just a mix of Class 5/6 racing, but the most valuable of them is the 3.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a  straight mile on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners on display, which isn't unusual at Class 6, but Cheese The One was a one-length runner-up here over 7f on her last run just under a fortnight ago. Most of the field are winless in at least seven races, but Intoxicata won seven races ago and has placed in five of her six defeats since then, so she's still going relatively well.
The other 'recent' winner is Child Of Lir, who won five races ago, but at 75 days off is the longest rested of this group. Possible Ambition returns from a break of almost six weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last fortnight with the bottom three on the card all featuring in the same 7f contest here 13 days ago...

All eight raced at Class 6 last time out and we've no new headgear/equipment or changes of yards to report. Intoxicata, Indrapura Star and Heartlander have yet to win at either track or trip, but Cheese The One won here over 6f back in September 2022, whilst Possible Ambition, Reclaim Victory, Child of Lir and Pop Favorite have all scored over course and distance, as shown in a pretty sorry looking Instant Expert...

...where Child of Lir's sole career win (Class 5, course and distance here last September) provides the only bit of green. Intoxicata has a few Class 6 A/W wins on standard going and is largely untested at track/trip and Pop Favorite has a reasonable record, but I'm hoping to glean a little more from the place stats...

Those who follow this column will know that any red on the place stats for going/class/course/distance are a no-no for me when nit comes to looking for a winner, but I'm happy to ignore Intoxicata's sole track effort and Child of Lir's two Class 6 defeats in the knowledge that he did win over this course and distance at Class 5, but I'll be discounting Possible Ambition, Cheese The One, Indrapura Star and Heartlander from my win considerations. I know the last pair haven't had many chances, but they were both well behind Cheese The One last time out and if I can't back CTO, I can't back the other two!

This leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 6 over a course and distance that shows little draw bias, which is what I'd expect over a straight mile on an artificial surface...

The Pace Analysis from those races does however give us something to work with, as those racing prominently or setting the pace have done a little better than those positioned further back in the pack...

Sadly, we don't seem to have a front-runner in our field, but Intoxicata, Child of Lir and Cheese The One all raced prominently last time out...

...so it's quite possible they'll set the tempo here.

Summary

Off what limited evidence we have above, the one I like best is Intoxicata in a pretty open-looking contest. She's consistent (2 wins and 6 places from her last 10), she survived the Instant Expert cut and is expected to be up with the pace. I wrote this piece earlier than usual on Tuesday, so I've no prices to work from, but I'd take her at hopefully 10/3 or bigger here.

Cheese The One ran well here last time out and should relish the extra furlong and be involved again, but she's going to be far too short for an E/W play and I could make a case for most of the others to make the frame, but that defeats the object of the column, I suppose.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/01/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.20 Doncaster
  • 12.50 Doncaster
  • 2.50 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll have a look at Tom Lacey's 7 yr old gelding Cruz Control in the 2.00 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively 2m5f after rail movements on good to soft that might be a little softer in places...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket, but let's take a closer look at the information available to us starting with recent form, where in the absence of an LTO winner, the runner-up finishes by the horses already mentioned are the best recent results.

Both horses have won two of their last seven, as have Hitching Jacking, Nothin To Ask and Getway Luv, whilst One Fine Man is three from seven and Demachine & Ubetya are both 1 from 7, with only Dreams of Home winless, although he did win 8 and 9 races ago and he was actually 6 from 11 prior to his last seven runs/defeats.

Joint top weight Demachine drops two classes here after three unplaced Class 1 efforts and Nothin To Ask is down one class, whilst it's a first run in new equipment for both Hitching Jacking (cheekpieces) and featured runner, Cruz Control (tongue tie).

Demachine is also the only one without a run on the last nine weeks or so, as he returns from a nine month absence, so it's possible he's going to need the run today but he has at least won a race over a similar trip to this one with only Dreams of Home, One Fine Man and Getaway Luv yet to do so, but only Nothin To Ask has won here at Doncaster before, having landed a Class 3, 2m3f, handicap novice chase here back in November 2022, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where only Ubetya's record at the trip looks a cause for concern. Dreams of Home's poor run of form is highlighted by him now being 11lbs lower in the ratings than his last win.

In the past, this type of race has suited the front-running types...

...which, based on this field's most recent efforts would appear to be yet more good news for the in-form featured runner Cruz Control...

...but not quite so good for rival Raffle Ticket.

Summary

Short, but hopefully sweet today. I started with the initial thought that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket and no other horse has really forced themselves into that equation. Both are in good form, of course and both look a better standard than the others, but Cruz Control's front-running could be the difference here.

In which case, I'll take the 3/1 (Hills, as of 3.50pm) Cruz Control to beat the 13/2 (almost E/W territory!) Raffle Ticket.

Demachine might well be the best of the rest dropping in class, but I think 10/3 is pretty short about a horse with no run in nine months, no win since May '22 and just the one win since the end of November 2020! I don't think there's an E/W bet for me here, but current 18/1 outsider One Fine Man could outrun his odds, having finished 21137 in his five starts over fences in 2023.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/01/24

Happy Belated New Year everyone, I hope you all had a very merry Christmas and a good New Year's Eve/Day, I know I did!

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have sadly highlighted no qualifiers. Thankfully, in addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.20 Ffos Las
  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 7.00 Kempton

Ffos Las has unfortunately been abandoned, as has the card at Huntingdon, leaving Kempton as the sole meeting. Our 'free' race on that card is actually the joint highest rated and joint highest prize on the card, so we'll stick with the 7.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's an inexperienced field with just 41 races between them. The most experienced (Bulldog Drummond) has raced 10 times to date, but all have at least three outings under their belts. My initial thoughts were that this might be a two-horse race between Engineer and the afore-mentioned Bulldog Drummond but let's see what the card tells us...

Bulldog Drummond was the only one to win last time out and only Engineer and Ippotheos have won a race prior to this one. Engineer has mad the frame in all three outings, Gaiden has been a back to back runner-up and both Flag Carrier and Persian Blue were in the frame on their last outings.

All bar Gaiden, the fast-finishing () Ippotheos and Flag Carrier are stepping up from Class 5 and it will be handicap debut day for Engineer, Cast No Shadow and Persian Blue, whilst Ippotheos and Flag Carrier both run in handicap company for just the second time. Persian Blue wears a tongue tie for the first and she is the quickest turned back out, just seven days after finishing third at Wolverhampton. Engineer has been off track the longest, but seven weeks is hardly a long break from action and the other eight have all been seen in the last 13-26 days.

Only three of the field have raced here before, making the frame four times from five combined runs but no wins. Our three previous winners, Engineer, Ippotheos & Bulldog Drummond have all won at this trip, though...

With so little winning form from this bunch, I've also included the place stats and they do suggest that the upper half/five on the card would be the place to focus with Engineer the standout. Ippotheos might find this tough at 11lbs higher than his sole win, but he does have a 7lb claimer on board to help in that respect. Bulldog Drummond and Flag Carrier both have much better place stats than their win records on the A/W.

The draw stats from previous similar contests show that the lower a horse has been drawn here, the greater the chances of making the frame and ultimately winning...

...which is another boost to the claims of Engineer, but not great for Flag Carrier.

Those 70 or so races above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those who race prominently or lead and based on this field's last three runs (some only have three!)...

...that's another tick in the box for Engineer. There's also some encouragement for Flag Carrier from his wide draw, whilst it may well be Cast No Shadow who sets the early pace. He has failed to hold on in his last two, both over 5f, so I suspect the extra furlong here makes life even tougher.

Summary

When I first looked at the card, I thought it might be a two-horse race between Engineer and Bulldog Drummond, but I'm much keener on the former now I've had a closer look and  the 7/2 (Hills at 3.40pm) Engineer is the one for me. Bulldog will run his race and make a late dash for the line, as will the fast-finishing Ippotheos, but they might encounter traffic. That said, neither are backable IMO as E/W options at their current odds of 4/1 & 6/1 respectively.

If Ippotheos drifted from 6's and/or Flag Carrier was longer than the current 13/2, then they might be the ones for E/W consideration, but for now, I'll just stick with Engineer.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/12/2023

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.45 Hexham
  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Exeter
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

Aside from a solitary Listed race at Kempton, the highest rated races in the UK on Wednesday are five Class 3 affairs. Our ten UK races above include four of those five Class 3 races and the most valuable of them is the 2.00 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard going polytrack...

Intervention was a winner here over 7f a week ago and having won at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier, now arrives her seeking a hat-trick of wins as he drops in trip. None of his rivals here even made the frame on their last outings, but Gulliver, Navello, Expert Agent, Count Otto, Buccabay and sole mare Cuban Breeze have all at least won inside their last six.

Five of the field are class movers today, as both Gulliver and Rousing Encore drop down from Class 2 after being well beaten, whilst Buccabay, Count Otto and Expert Agent all step up from Class 4, despite failing to shine last time out. The latter, Expert Agent, makes a yard debut for Stuart Williams, having left Kevin Foy during the eight weeks since his last run. Bosh is noted on the card as a fast finisher, but having lost his last eight races, he might be better off setting for home sooner!

Rocking Ends has been off the track for over five months and might well need the run, whilst most of the field have raced in the last month or so with Count Otto, Expert Agent, Rousing Encore and Bosh coming back after 6 to 10 weeks off.

Way To Dubai and Navello are the only ones yet to win at this trip, whilst Expert Agent and Count Otto are both course and distance winners. Rocking Ends (5f), Gulliver (7f) and Intervention (7f) have also tasted victory here at Lingfield, as shown by Instant Expert...

...which suggests Gulliver, Expert Agent, Count Otto and Intervention might be some of the main contenders to win here and the latter has made the frame in similar conditions on many occasions...

...as has Count Otto without being quite a prolific from a strike rate perspective.

Of the four who caught the eye from the win graphic, we have runners in stalls 1, 2, 7 and 12 of 12, so the pace/draw stats could make interesting reading, starting as usual with the details from our draw analyser...

...where over the last 150 or so similar contests, the best draw has been the low to mid-range with stalls 1 to 5 performing best according to the PRB3 graph...

...although stalls 6 & 7 still have a rating of 0.500 or higher. This would suggest that Gulliver and Intervention would have a slight advantage over Count Otto with Expert Agent the least well drawn, but not out of it by any means, as over 6f here at Lingfield much will depend on the approach taken to the race and our pace analyser says...

...that the further forward a horse has raced in those 150+ contests above, the greater the chance of a win/place. If we then look at the field's most recent efforts...

...I'd expect Buccabay and Rocking Ends to be up with the early pace with both Intervention and Cuban Breeze for company. Expert Agent ran prominently last time out, as he did when landing back to back course and distance wins in the spring, so I'd expect him to be further forward here too. Gulliver looks like having to pass the entire field to win here and I'm not sure he's that good. I know he won four races ago, but that win came after 28 successive defeats over a 35 month period, so he's hardly reliable.

Summary

Intervention is the one for me (and probably many others) here and whilst he's at the top of the market, I think his current (5.55pm) 9/2 odds are more than fair and I'd expect him to land the hat-trick here. Expert Agent (5/1)and Buccabay (13/2) might well be the ones to chase him home, but if I was to have a longer priced E/W pick, it would probably be the 10/1 Cuban Breeze, especially with firms paying four places. She's running pretty well right now on polytrack (213 in her last three), gets weight all round and if starting well, could surprise a few from a wider draw.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Kelso
  • 2.00 Hereford
  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 3.55 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...

Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.

Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.

All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.

Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...

...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.

Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.

Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.

With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...

...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.

He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...

...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...

...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.

Summary

My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.

Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.

He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Ffos Las
  • 2.30 Hexham
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners of potential interest...

Both the 'free' list and the TS report have a Class 2 race amongst them, but the A/W option has more runners than the chase, so we're off to the 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W sprint handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Chipstead is the only one of the field to have made the frame last time out, having finished third of eight on heavy ground at Windsor a month ago. He's also the only entire horse in the filed, since Clarendon House has been gelded since his last run twenty weeks ago, but we do have a 3 yr old filly in the shape of Glorious Angel.

Despite no LTO winner, only Clarendon House, May Sonic and Mondammej come here on a string of seven or more consecutive defeats (7, 7, and 27 to be precise) and the latter won't be helped by stepping up a class, as does Alligator Alley.

Bottom weight Strong Johnson actually steps up two classes, but the filly, Glorious Angel, ran in a Listed race at Newcastle recently after three successive runner-up finishes at 5f and she's now down in trip and class here.

We know that Clarendon House might need a run after twenty weeks off and Rocket Rodney's four month break might also pose problems, but the rest of the field have raced in the last month with Strong Johnson spotted at Newcastle last Friday!

All nine runners have won at least once over today's trip and both Alligator Alley and Mondammej are former course and distance winners. In fact, the latter won this race two years ago, but hasn't won any of twenty-seven races since, which is why Instant Expert below shows him racing off a mark 11lbs lower than his last win...

...where the two former C&D winners, Alligator Alley & Mondammej look best suited, but don't forget to factor in the latter's recent poor form. There's no data above for the two returning from a break, as both Clarendon House and Rocket Rodney are making A/W debuts here. The subsequent pace stats from those races above again paint Mondammej in a favourable light...

...and it's worth noting that although his last win was 2 days shy of 2 years ago, his 2-year place stats look like this...

...suggesting that whilst he'd be a surprising winner, he could well make the frame. His cause, however, won't be helped by being drawn in stall 8...

...over a course and distance where the first five stalls seem to be the place to be...

That said, a wide draw isn't necessarily a lost cause, if he can get out quickly...

...and this is backed up by our pace/draw heat map. which also offers a little surprise with the draw...

Sadly for Mondammej, that's where the good news quickly starts and finishes, as his last four outings suggest that he's going to be well down the pecking order for early pace...

...and that we should be looking at the top end of this chart for our 'most likelys' and if we put them in draw order, look at their last three runs and place them onto the heat map, we get...

...with the feeling that Chipstead gets to the bend first followed by Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley hoping the bend keeps him ahead of Clarendon House.

Summary

Based on the pace/draw situation, the two I like most here are Chipstead and Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley looking a danger to them. The latter was the pick of the pack on Instant Expert, too, so these are my shortlisted three for the frame.

Had this not been Chipstead's tapeta debut, then I'd have been backing him at 13/2 (Hills, only price on offer at 4.15pm) and that's a little shorter than I normally place E/W bets at, but your cutoff might be different. I think he holds the filly, Glorious Angel, at bay but she's not a bad bet for the places and at 7/1, you could be tempted there too.

As for Alligator Alley, he ran better than the bare result suggested at Newcastle recently, he's a former course and distance winner and has won four of his last seven on tapeta making him my pick here. his 4/1 ticket isn't massively generous, but probably worth taking.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fakenham
  • 2.55 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Kempton
  • 7.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two runners to consider...

30-day form..

5-year course form...

...from which, the highest-rated race is the 2.55 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Rambuso Creek is our only LTO winner, but Magnificence, Fantasy Master, Punchbowl Flyer and bottom-weight Impressor all had top-3 finishes, In fact, Impressor has made the frame in 11 of his last 12 starts, winning four times. Only Came From The Dark and Punchbowl Flyer are winless in seven or more (12 & 18 actually!)

Spoof, Woolhampton and Punchbowl Flyer are the quickest turned back out after racing against each other nine days ago in a race I covered here at Windsor, which went like this...

...but their rivals have all raced inside the last 40 days, so all should be tuned up for this. Those three from the Windsor race all now drop down a class, as do Came From The Dark and Strong Johnson, but Magnificence, Rambuso Creek and the consistent Impressor all all up a level.

Only Magnificence and Punchbowl Flyer have yet to win over this trip, whilst only Spoof and Fantasy Master have won here at Nottingham with both having scored over course and distance. Mind you, the latter has had a fair few cracks at this venue, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Spoof, Punchbowl Flyer and Impressor would be most at home with the underfoot conditions. Spoof, however, has a poor win record at Class 3, as do Fantasy Master and Ey Up It's Maggie, but none of this field have exactly set the world alight in this grade. Fantasy Master leads Spoof 3-1 in terms of track wins, but has suffered ten defeats here and he's hardly the master over 5f and nor is Woolhampton. With so little green above, I think we need to check place form from those races...

...which don't really aid the Class 3 claims of Spoof or Fantasy Master, whilst Punchbowl Flyer looks a win or nothing type at this level. Fantasy Master's course form, however, looks pretty good now with him making the frame in 4 of his 10 defeats to go with his 3 wins.

I generally don't expect to see much of a pace bias in a medium-sized field over a straight sprint and despite having to make some logical tweaks to the parameters to get a workable data-set, I still think that's there's no huge bias here either...

Yes, those drawn centrally have the slight upper hand in terms of wins, but has the same number of placed runners as the low draw. If anything, I'd say the higher drawn runners had whatever slight advantage there might be to be had. All that said, it's still a sprint and it's usually a case of fastest away has the best chance of making the frame and you can't win if you're not in the frame and if we look back those 90-odd races above, we see...

...that leaders make the frame most often and also go on to win a larger chunk of the races, which might be good news for both Impressor and Punchbowl Flyer from oposite ends of the draw, if they run like they ran last time out...

Obviously there's no guarantees that will happen, of course, but Punchbowl Flyer has lost 18 races in a row and almost broke that run by switching to front-running last time out when only beaten late on by a fairly short favourite. What I'm more certain of, is that Woolhampton, Came From The Dark and Rambuso Creek lack early pace and this could be an issue for them.

Summary

Punchbowl Flyer is on a long losing run, but ran really well last time out. He loves heavy ground, he's down in class and now runs off a dangerously low mark of 76. He's on my shortlist here along with former course and distance winner Fantasy Master, who might not have a great record at Class 3, but has a win and three places from just five efforts at Class 2. He loves it here at Nottingham and should be in the shake-up today.

These are the two I like best here and I suspect there'll not be much between them, but if pushed I'd take the 11/2 Punchbowl Flyer to just about beat the 7/1 Fantasy Master, who is pretty close to E/W territory for me., whilst I wouldn't be too surprised if the similarly 7/1 priced Spoof ran a big race here.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/10/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Worcester
  • 3.45 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.28 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted Charlie Appleby's record at HQ over the last 5 years and he runs a trio there on Wednesday...

...of which one runs in one of our free races, so let's have a closer look at Mountain Song and the 4.10 Newmarket in general. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat race over a straight mile on soft ground...

Karmology is our sole LTO winner and she's unbeaten in her two starts so far. Zouzanna (a winner in two of her last five), Orzo (won on debut), Prisha (won two starts ago) and Bint Al Daar ( a win and three places from her last five) were all in the frame on their last outings; Rocha Do Leao is the only one yet to win.

Many of these are short on handicap experience and this is just a second effort for both Rocha Do Leao and Prisha, whilst it's handicap debut day for Orzo and hat-trick seeking Karmology. Just two of this field, Morning Poem and Orzo are older than 3 yrs old, so they're technically 3lbs worse off at the weights and the former is now blinkered for the first time, but she does drop down a class here.

She's the only class dropper, as Rocha Do Leao, Prisha and Bint Al Daar all step up a level, whilst Karmology and Orzo are both up two classes. The latter is one of just two (along with Rocha Do Leao) yet to win over a mile. We've no previous course winners, but the field haven't been here that often. Most of them have had an outing in the last month or so and Prisha raced just over seven weeks ago, but featured runner Mountain Song has been off the track for nearly fifteen weeks and Orzo might well beed the run after a 28-week break.

Past form under today's conditions is brought to you by Instant Expert, as usual...

That was always going to look a little sparse with nine runners sharing just fifty-four previous outings, but it's good to see that Choisya has a Class 3 Flat win and she gets the trip. She is, however, 6lbs above her last winning mark and Morning Poem is 7lbs above here. No real causes for alarm here, but Bint Al Daar's record over the trip isn't the best, but the graphic below suggests that she's a regular placer...

...and aside from not having raced in this grade, her place credentials are the best on offer as her Flat form reads 3361322. She did win over a mile here on the July course in August, but is now 8lbs higher that that win, which is probably why she's not winning! Her soft ground form might well be the key here, though. She'll run from stall 3 of 9 here and over a straight mile, you wouldn't expect much of a draw bias, but previous similar races seem to have favoured those drawn higher...

...but I still suspect that pace will be the key here and those races above have been won by a bigger percentage of front-runners/leaders than any other running style...

...although horses racing in mid-division seem to come strong late on to make the frame. This apparent bias towards those willing to take it on early looks like good news for three or four of this field based on recent outings...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with the ideal scenario being the high-drawn leader. Choisya and Karmology look like being the front runners and although stalls 5 and 6 aren't exactly high, the latter is only one berth away from the optimum combination.

Summary

I'll be honest and admit that I'm still a little sceptical about draw bias on a straight track and I'll virtually always veer towards pace as my helper in these situations and as the graphic above shows, there are four best suited by the pace here; Karmology, Choisya, Mountain Song and Orzo and they occupy stalls 4 to 7, so at least none are exactly drawn low.

It's these four that I want as my shortlist, even if Bint Al Daar's place record is excellent. I don't fancy her to win here and at 7/1 I can't back her E/W, although I would be tempted if she drifts.

As for the winner here, Karmology is the horse in form and whilst it's easy to just back the 7/2 fav, I do think she'll go on to win this. the others in that trio are priced at 6/1, 11/2 and 6/1, so that shows how tight this might be and I won't be backing any of them E/W. Again, like Bint Al Daar, I want at least 8's to get involved.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/10/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Ludlow
  • 4.57 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Sedgefield
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following on 14-day form...

and for 30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all the races listed above from both the 'free' list and the report qualifiers, the highest rated is the 5.05 Ludlow, where the in-form Twiston-Davies yard send Topofthecotswolds to take on 5 rivals in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles on good ground...

BACK ON THE LASH was third in a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham last November, before winning there over the cross country fences in January. Was subsequently pulled up at this year's Festival there and also in the Grand National at Aintree since but he's now down two classes and back to his last winning mark after a six month break. He's 3 from 3 here at Ludlow including a win over course and distance.

LE CAMELEON won a Class 3 handicap chase here over course and distance in March and was then third here a month later before signing off with another similar result at Kempton. Has been off for nearly six months and has undergone wind surgery in that time, but won this time last year after an equally long absence..

QUICK DRAW also comes back from a six month break and was in fine form last winter finishing 211P3, a poor run at Kempton aside. Yet to win over this trip over fences, but did so over hurdles at Uttoxeter in December 2021. Yard and jockey have good records here.

TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS hasn't won any of seven outings since scoring here over 3m2f almost a year ago, but hadn't been running terribly before finishing last of six, beaten by 40 lengths at Worcester last month which is a worry. That said, yard and jockey are both in good form and that last win here was off a mark 2lbs higher than his current one and he does drop in class.

JUDGE EARLE is the veteran of the field at 11 yrs of age and was in good form in the summer finishing 112 during July/August. Sadly that took his mark from 105 to 125 and that looked too much for him as he was only 4th of 6 last time out. He's eased a pound here, but needs more help that that in my opinion. Won over this trip at Uttoxeter and now visits Ludlow for the first time.

VOLCANO is 6 from 26 over fences, which is reasonable enough, but 5 of those wins came from 6 outings at Warwick leaving him just 1 from 20 elsewhere! That 1 win did, however, come from 7 previous visits here at Ludlow over course and distance almost three years ago. Hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Ffos Las six months ago and will probably need the run as all six career wins have come within 23 days of his previous run.

Instant Expert suggests Back On The Lash will be best suited by forecasted conditions...

...whilst featured runner Topofthecotswolds has really good place form...

If the field's past few races are anything to go by, then I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters...

...which, based on past races here at Ludlow, would seem to represent their best chances of doing well today...

Summary

Pacemakers do well here at Ludlow and I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters. Sadly the latter looks like he's too high in the weights to win and the latter saves his best form for Warwick and will probably also need the run.

Next in line on the pace chart is Back On The Lash, who is down in class and back on his last winning mark. He scored best on Instant Expert too and he'll be well poised to take over from the leaders as they tire. We're not getting rich here, but at 3/1 (Bet365) Back On The Lash would be my pick of the pack.

Le Cameleon returns from a break and wind surgery and I tend not to back horses immediately after wind ops, which leaves me with Topofthecotswolds and Quick Draw.

The latter has excellent place stats over similar conditions, but is still higher than his last winning mark and hasn't been in great form of alter, despite how well his yard are going. Quick Draw, however, was going well at the end of his last campaign and his yard/jockey fare well at this venue. There might not be much to choose between this pair in the end, but the latter is the 9/4 fav with Hills. Bet365 offer 11/1 about Topofthecotswolds and whilst he might need things to fall his way to make the frame, that might not be a bad E/W bet for small change.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/10/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Bangor
  • 2.20 Catterick
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 4.25 Navan
  • 5.12 Nottingham

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

14-day form

course 5-year form

Of all those races above, the one featuring Charlie Appleby's Mischief Magic is the highest-rated, so we're going to look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 2, A/W 3yo + contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out and only Aramis Grey had a top three finish, but all bar Desert Cop, Baldomero and Misty Grey have at least one win in their recent form lines. Brad The Brief and featured runner Mischief Magic have the benefit of dropping down from runs at Listed class and Group 1 respectively and the latter is a former Group 3 winner.

He hasn't raced for almost 15 weeks, but Baldomero has been off for nearly 18 weeks and Never Just A Dream hasn't been seen of eight months and would probably need the run. As well as dropping in class, Brad The Brief wears cheekpieces for the first time and Mischief Magic runs for the first time since being gelded.

All bar Baldomero have won at this trip already, but he has at least won here at Kempton (Class 2, 1m2f, 17 months ago), whilst Desert Cop, Aramis Grey and Mischief Magic are all course and distance winners, as shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Baldomero might well be outclassed based on a 1 in 10 record at C2 and that Aramis Grey (1/7) might also struggle. From the above, Desert Cop, Mischief Magic and Never Just A Dream are the eye-catchers.

The draw stats from similar past races have suggested that a low draw is preferable...

...along with a willingness to get on with things...

...which looks like more good news for Never Just A Dream...

If we combine the pace & draw stats, we get the following pace/draw heat map...

...where Never Just A Dream would sit in the Mid/Led 15.52% sector, which is probably as good as we're getting for this field...

Summary

Never Just A Dream should be my pick here based purely on the above and at 11/1, he'd make a decent E/W bet. He scores well on Instant Expert, has the best pace profile in the race and is drawn close enough to the lower end to not be adrift, but he hasn't raced since appearing at Meydan eight months ago and tackles polytrack for the first time. Those two negatives even outweigh the booking of James Doyle and stops me from backing him to win.

I suspect the winner will be our featured runner, Mischief Magic. Charlie Appleby's horses are flying right now and this horse is the class horses in the race. He's a former Group 3 winner who drops down from Group 1 to run here, he's easily the highest rated and has won over course and distance. His jockey/trainer combined to win this race two years ago and I expect them to land it again this year.

Sadly, we're not getting rich here, though, as Mischief Magic is currently Even money with Hills (only book open right now). I expected him to be short, but not this short, I was rather hoping for around 6/4, but you can't always get what you want!

Brad the Brief also drops in class and should go well, but 7/2 isn't E/W territory for me.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/09/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Sligo
  • 3.40 Goodwood
  • 5.02 Redcar
  • 7.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, so I'm going to take a look at the 3.40 Goodwood, an 8-runner, 3yo+, Listed flat race over a right-handed 1m2f on soft/heavy ground...

Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca both won their last outings, but both are coming back from lengthy absences of 152 and 325 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards from Aidan O'Brien to Freddie & Martyn Meade. My Prospero was a runner-up last time out and all bar Rousay have at least one win in their last five starts, but she has been beaten in each of her last seven since a Listed win 13 months ago.

All bar There's The Door and Bill Silvers raced at Class 1 last time around, but this pair step up 1 and 3 classes respectively and the latter is making little appeal so far! Aside from Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca coming off breaks, the rest of the field have allr aced in the last two months and the two coming off breaks are the only ones yet to win at this trip.

Three horses have won at this venue before and all three (King of Conquest, Savvy Victory & There's The Door) are former course and distance winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where off admittedly small sample sizes, King of Conquest and There's The Door are the eyecatchers. Rousay looks weak at course/distance and Savvy Victory has struggled to win Class 1 contests with a 1 in 7 record. He has only made the frame on one of his six defeats at C1 too, as seen in these place stats...

...where again King of Conquest and There's The Door score well, as do My Prospero and Persist. My Prospero's record at Class 1 reads 133442 with a Listed success and two narrow defeats when third home at Gr 1. He was a runner-up beaten by just half a length in a Gr 2 at York last time out and sets the standard on form here. He's drawn in the high third of the draw today over a track/trip/going that hasn't actually shown much of a draw bias...

...so none of this field should feel they're already at a disadvantage based on which stall they've been allocated, but the pace profiling does have a bearing on the outcome, as those races above have favoured runners willing to take it on early...

...essentially suggesting that the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of success and that's repeated in the place data too; those racing prominently or leading have bagged 55.74% of the places from just 45.28% of the runners, which is 23% more than expected.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be a front-runner in this pack, although King of Conquest set the pace when wining at Newmarket in May (four races back)...

...and we may end up with a falsely run race, which would play into the hands of the better quality runners.

Summary

Based on past exploits, My Prospero has to be the one to beat. His Class 1 form is excellent and ran really well last time out. His pace profile suggests he's going to be handily placed to keep an eye on what's going on around him and if he 'gets' the soft/heavy ground, should be landing this one. The problem for me is that he's 8/13 and 8/15 with the two firms showing prices and that's way too short for me for a horse with no heavy ground experience and just one outing on soft.

That's not to say he won't 'get' the ground and go on to win, of course, but I see little value in the odds available. A positive side to such a short fav is that we might get better E/w prices about others and the one I fancy as the main challenge has to be King of Conquest. He ticked the Instant Expert box and might well set the tempo here and he's currently 13/2, which is a little longer than I thought he'd be, if truth be told.

That's still a little on the short side for an E/W bet, though, so if you wanted to look further down the card/odds, bottom weight There's The Door might be the one at 20/1!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/09/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.55 Sandown
  • 3.45 Yarmouth
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted one trainer in short-term form...

14-day form...

...but as In The Trenches runs in one of our 'free' races, I really should take a look at the 4.50 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

Star Ahoy and Born Ruler both won their last starts and the latter has two wins and two places from his last five. Miss Dolly Rocker won her penultimate race and has made the frame in all seven career outings. Featured horse In The Trenches is a four-race maiden, whilst Miller Spirit is 0 from 5.

A few of these are short of handicap experience with Goldsborough, Ashtanga, In The Trenches and Miss Dolly Rocker all having just their second crack, whilst LTO winner Star Ahoy is a handicap debutant today and like In The Trenches and bottom weight Outgun he steps up a class here.

New Dayrell and Miss Dolly Rocker both drop a class, but Goldsborough is down teo levels and sports a hood for the first time, Miller Spirit makes a debut in cheekpieces.

Both Born Ruler and New Dayrell have already won over course and distance, whilst Star Ahoy and Miss Dolly Rocker have won over 1m2f at Pontefract and Nottingham respectively. Born Ruler's win over track and trip was just five days ago and he's turned back out quickest here, but most of the field have raced in the last seven weeks. Star Ahoy has been off for ten weeks whilst Ashtanga/In The Trenches haven't been seen since early June and may need the run.

Born Ruler has never raced on good to soft, but his LTO win over course and distance gives him plenty of green on Instant Expert, albeit off just the one run under these conditions...

He does, however, bear a 6lb penalty for last week's win and New Dayrell is still 4lbs higher than his last win, three starts ago, despite being eased a couple of pounds today. His last two efforts off 79 were fairly lacklustre. We already knew that Miller Spirit was a 5-race maiden, so the above line of red was no surprise, but despite all his races being over similar trips to today, we can now see that he hasn't even made the frame yet...

...making him the first to be cut from my considerations even before we consider whether the draw will have much impact.

Our draw analyser would initially suggest that those drawn lowest would be best placed here...

...but when I look at the actual stall-by-stall data, I'm not entirely convinced that the bias is as strong as above...

...as the data has been skewed by what can only be an anomalous 0 from 37 for stall 6. There's no rhyme nor reason for one stall to have struggled like that and if we look at the PRB3 figures, stall 8 (Born Ruler) is deemed to be the best place to run from...

...so for me, the draw stats can only be described as inconclusive, which then places greater emphasis (and a hope for some help!) on the pace data, where our pace analyser says that this type of race can be won from anywhere in the pack, but that leaders fare best and the further forward you race, the better the chance of making the frame...

...which based on recent efforts suggests another big run from the ever-consistent Miss Dolly Rocker, who seeks to make it 8 places from 8 starts...

Summary

The one I liked best here was Born Ruler; he's in great form and has won recently over course and distance and the manner of his win last week suggested that he had plenty in hand. That said, this ground is softer than he has faced before and he is up 6lbs, which makes life tougher. In all likelihood, he's the one to beat here, but there's not a great deal of value/scope in Hill's early (4.30pm) 9/4 price tag. Ideally, I'd have managed to another half point from them, but maybe other firms will be a little more generous.

The softer conditions won't affect Miss Dolly Rocker, though; she was a good to soft ground runner-up last time out when unlucky to bump into a horse winning for the fourth time in eight starts. She drops in class here and will aim to add to a soft ground win two starts ago. She hasn't been out of the frame in any of her seven career outings and I fancy that to become eight here and at attractive odds of 13/2, I think she's worth a quid or two.

The frame should then be completed by the LTO winner, Star Ahoy, who currently shows at 4/1. He narrowly won over this trip last time out on ground that was a little softer than good and although up in class and weight, should still be on the premises. I can't back him at 4's, of course, but he should go well without the pressure of my money on his back!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/09/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 2.05 Carlisle
  • 3.05 Tramore
  • 4.10 Uttoxeter
  • 4.40 Punchestown
  • 7.45 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner and that's based on course 5-year handicap form...

The highest rated of the UK races above is the sole jumps contest, so we're off to Staffordshire for the 4.10 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good to soft/soft ground...

Enthused won last time out and has two wins and four places from his last six outings, whilst Simply Red has three wins and two places from her last seven, including winning her last two races. Prince Escalus is 2 from 7 and Call Me Rocky is 2 from 4, but Hurricane Ali and Boom Boom Boom are winless in their last eight and seven respectively.

Most of the field have raced in the last 6-38 days, but Rathmacknee and top-weight Prince Escalus might be excused forneeding the run after breaks of 138 & 164 days, although the latter has finished 1314 after breaks of 110-272 days!

Prince Escalus is one of just two runners not stepping up in class today, Boom Boom Boom being the other and whilst half of the field are up from Class 3, LTO winners Simply Red and Enthused are up two classes.

The latter is however one of two (along with Hurricane Ali) to have already scored over course and distance, whilst all bar Rathmacknee (yard debut today) and Boom Boom Boom have won over a similar trip elsewhere and those course/distance wins are shown below in Instant Expert below, but it's hardly an inspiring graphic...

There has been some limited success on this going, but the four to have tackled Class 2 racing are a combined 0 from 12. We knew we had two course winners and four to have prevailed over this trip. With regards to Class, it might be worth pointing out that four of these have won at Class 3; Glorious Zoff (1 from 5), Hurricane Ali (2/12), Prince Escalus (4/8) and Rathmacknee (1/4), with the Prince having the best record.

The place stats to go with the above graphic look like this...

...where again Prince Escalus looks good at Class 3, but the likes of Boom Boom Boom, Call Me Rocky and Rathmacknee look very vulnerable and I'd probably discount them at this point.

The pace data for similar past races suggests that horses willing to set the pace are rewarded more often than those who don't...

...which would, when looking at the field's more recent efforts, seem to be another tick against the name of Prince Escalus...

...whilst just over the last two races, we end up with the Prince and the two form horses...

...and I think that these are the trio I'd want to be focusing on for this one.

Summary

The likelihood is that despite stepping up two classes, Simply Red & Enthused are likely to be too good for Prince Escalus.

He does go well after a break, but it's always a worry when a horse might need a run. Off a mark on 132, he's some 10lbs higher than his last hurdles win, but his last two wins over fences were off 133 & 134, so this mark isn't beyond him. I'm not sure that he can beat the other two, but at 10/1, I'd be happy to back him each way.

The early market can't split the other pair as 3/1 jt favs and there probably won't be much between them, but if pushed for a winner, I'd probably just side with the course and distance winner Enthused.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/09/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 4.39 Hexham
  • 4.50 Lingfield
  • 5.04 Cork
  • 5.39 Cork
  • 7.18 Hexham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

It's a pretty sire looking day of racing on Wednesday if truth be told. There are 36 UK races across six meetings and the 'best' on offer is half a dozen Class 4 encounters; one of which containing a runner from the TS report, so we're going to have a quick (and it will be quick) look at Nicky Richards' Kajaki and the other horses in the 5.45 Hexham, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f (near enough 2m5f after rail movements) on good ground...

No LTO winners here, but Copper Beach and Malangen made the frame. Belvedere Blast was pulled up, but had won his previous three outings, whilst only Dallas des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main have lost each of their last five.

Top weight Punxsutawney Phil steps up a class here, but both City Derby & Calum Gilhooley are down one level, whilst Belvedere blast & Dallas Des Pictons are aided by a double drop in class.

Four of the field ran 46 days ago and the remainder have all been seen in the last 11 to 33 days, so no fitness excuses here for a field in which only Onward Route, Cousu Main and Calum Gilhooley are yet to win at a similar trip, whilst three horses (Belvedere Blast, Fenna's Loss & Onward Route) have all won here previously; the former over 2m½f and the other pair are course and distance winners.

And now over to Instant Expert...

...where aside from a poor win record at Class 4, Belvedere Blast looks useful. Fenna's Loss, Calum Gilhooley and Kajaki look consistent enough and my main concerns are about Punxsutawney Phil & City Derby on good grounds, Belverdere Blast, Onward Route, Copper Beach, Cousu Main and Malangen at Class 4, Dallas Des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main at the trip plus Copper Beach & City Derby for being considerably higher in the weights than their last winning marks.

Past races here at Hexham have suggested that the further forward a horse runs, the greater chance of making the frame and prominent/leading runners also stand the best chance(s) of winning...

...which based on the field's last few runs...

...would steer you towards the top four on that list and then also possibly the next three for a chance of making the frame. To be honest this race doesn't particularly lend itself too well to finding a winner, although Belvedere Blast was in great form prior to being pulled up last time out. He scored well enough on Instant Expert and is likely to be up with the pace, but before I make a decision, I want to go back to Instant Expert and look at the place stats...

...and the standouts there would seem to be Copper Beach, Belvedere Blast and Onward Route.

Summary

In a tricky/unappealing race, I think I like Belvedere Blast most, but wouldn't want to put too much money down. Only Hills were open at 4.40pm and they were offering 5/1, which isn't generous but probably about right.

Copper Beach & Onward Route both looked good on place stats and the former is another 5/1 shot who might end up being the main challenger to the selection. As for Onward Route, he's a bit hit and miss, but there's definitely a placer in there if he's in the right shape/mood, but I think I'd want at least 12/1 before risking any of my cash and he's currently only 10's.

Onward Route was widely available at 12/1 on Wednesday morning, and had been 16/1 with PP/Betfair for a while.



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