The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 3.18 Chepstow
- 4.00 Carlisle
- 4.45 Kilbeggan
- 7.45 Kilbeggan
The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...
Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.
Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...
...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...
...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...
If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...
...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...
We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...
...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.
Summary
There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.
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