The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
2.33 Cork
4.53 Cork
5.20 Ayr
5.28 Cork
7.30 Windsor
Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...
As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...
.with our field's last four runs looking like this...
Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...
And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...
Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.
All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.
All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.
Instant Expert says...
...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...
...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...
...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...
Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...
...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.
Summary
I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.
Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.
Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.
Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.
Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.
Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
4.10 Southwell
6.45 Windsor
7.00 Musselburgh
7.15 Windsor
...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...
Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).
Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.
The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.
Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...
...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...
...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.
As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...
...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...
Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...
...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.
Summary
Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.
Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.
The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...
3.40 Carlisle
5.25 Roscommon
5.45 Market Rasen
6.25 Roscommon
8.05 Windsor
8.45 Market Rasen
...the best of which, on paper, are a couple of Class 4 contests ie typical Monday fayre. The Carlisle Class 4 contest only has seven runners and won't provide much scope for E/W punters, whilst the Market Rasen offering is a 5-runner maiden! With that and today's feature in mind, I'll drop down a class and head for the 8.05 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to form ground...
It's a busy-looking racecard so let's quickly assess the information in front of us before moving on. Form-wise, just Hurtle was able to win last time out, but Overactive, City Cyclone and Mirabello Bay did manage to finish third and the latter had won three of his previous four outings, whilst Bulldog Spirit is the only runner in the race with a previous win, having scored at Newcastle on his debut in September of last year.
It's a fairly inexperienced field with just 42 career starts, of which Mirabello Bay is responsible for 14! This general inexperience manifests itself by the lack of wins and in the facts that Rule Of Thumb and Bulldog Spirit both only have one previous handicap run each and that Overactive, City Cyclone, Brave Knight and Kyle of Lochalsh are all on handicap debuts here.
Rule of Thumb drops in class here, whilst Mirabello Bay's LTo win was at Class 6 and he's up in both class and weight, although by just 1lb and he has already won at Class 5, as Instant Expert will testify shortly.
Most of the field have raced in the last two months or so, but it's a seasonal reappearance for Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and Brave Knight after lay-offs of 151, 230 and 251 days respectively, so they'd be excused for needing a run here.
Only Mirabello Bay has raced here at Windsor before, but has failed to make the frame in two starts, but he's also the only one to have run at a similar trip to this one, having won over 1m4f two starts ago.
I think the lack of experience may well have affected the assessor's judgement as the entire field only has a 4lb spread from highest to lowest rated, so so of these might well have been treated leniently or harshly depending upon your viewpoint. This inexperience is also reflected in the relevant stats shown on Instant Expert...
Not much to go on here, admittedly, but our three previous winners have all won at this grade, Hurtle has at least made the frame on good to firm ground and there's not really much to add to that, so let's quickly move on to see who might have the best of the draw over a course and distance that has tended to suit those drawn highest for win purposes, but there seems to be no bias at all when it comes to making the frame...
Those win stats will be better news for the likes of Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and possibly Rule of Thumb than it will over their rivals, but I suspect much will depend on how the field approach the contest, which is where feature of the day, PACE, comes into its own, because we know that those races above have favoured horses racing in a prominent position, just off the leader(s)...
Aside from this advantage for prominent runners, there's not much to split the other three running styles from either a win or a place perspective. We can also use our pace stats to make an educated guess at how these runners will approach this race, by looking at how they've tended to race in their most recent outings as follows...
A couple of them aren't entirely consistent in the early days of their career, but I'd expect City Cyclone to be setting the pace and Mirabello Bay to be the early back marker. Brave Knight will probably also be towards the rear, whilst Bulldog Spirit is likely to be prominent. Both Overactive and Kyle of Lochalsh led in their last races, which was a new tactic for them, but it didn't produce a better run than their previous efforts, so they might not race as freely this time.
Summary
Based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, of the past winners, I think the more experienced and most successful Mirabello Bay would be the one to choose for my shortlist, joined by the pace of City Cyclone and possibly Kyle of Lochalsh, whose yard have a great record at this track and have won this particular race several times in the past.
The obvious pick would be Mirabello Bay with his 4 wins and 2 places from 14 starts, including 3 wins and 2 places from his last six, but closer analysis of his form shows that those six runs were all on the A/W and that his last run on turf was here at Windsor when third of seven over 1m2f last October. That was his sixth run on turf and his other five results read 77656, so he's not suddenly as hot as he might appear.
City Cyclone has ran well in both starts this season, finishing third on both occasions and of the four horses that beat him in those races, two won next time out, one made the frame and one has yet to re-appear, so those third places might have decent efforts and if afforded an easy lead here, he could go well again.
Kyle of Lochalsh is admittedly a bit of a "what-if" type of selection, it took him a while to get going last time out, but seemed to be getting the hang of it in the closing stages and his yard have done well here/in this race in the past.
To be honest, it's not really a race I'd ant to invest heavily in, if at all, but if push came to shove, I think that this trio would represent my best chance of filling the frame. As for a winner, there's nothing jumping out, but City Cyclone could well be the one, if allowed to set the tempo. Mirabello Bay might have got used to losing now, too!
I wrote the above just after 3pm on Sunday with only Bet365's odds available. To put money down on them, I'd want at least 8/1 for any of them as an E/W bet and only City Cyclone offered that opportunity at 9/1, so that's my tentative selection for (very) small stakes.
4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
We start with the race card snippet...
A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.
I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...
...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...
21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners
I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...
...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...
8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...
...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SotDimage.jpg320830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-07-20 07:03:242020-07-20 07:37:54Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...
Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.
14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.
Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...
11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle
...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-07-06 07:17:462020-07-06 07:55:00Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020
3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction)WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...
...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...
...that number 1...
To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.
So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...
all came in handicaps
2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners
Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...
4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill
...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).
The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...
The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...
...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...
17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle
...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-06-29 07:12:012020-06-29 08:31:59Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.
Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.
Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.
Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.
Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...
...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...
those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)
...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/stat_of_the_day_white_letters-e1460311997762.jpg319830Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngChris Worrall2020-06-22 07:12:042020-06-22 07:50:51Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020
I was toying with a couple of subjects on which to base the content of this article, writes Jon Shenton, when I read a highly enjoyable edition of David Probert’s thoughts on this very site, which you can find here.
My eye was drawn to the section on Windsor. It’s a course that historically I’ve had a patchy record when betting, so, inspired by Mr Probert’s words, I elected to dive into the deep Windsor / Thames waters to try and find some data driven treasure.
The course is a staple of the flat season: with its regular Monday slot in the calendar it forms an important part of the campaign due to the high volume of meetings and central location for many trainers. For the army of 9-to-5'ers like myself it also offers a chance to kick back and watch some racing due to the usual evening nature of the meet.
The fate of the favourites
Whilst researching, the first factor that made me sit up and take notice was the performance of the jollies. Using geegeez Query Tool (odds SP rank = 1, races from 2012 season onwards) the below table shows the tracks with the best performance by favourites ranked by A/E.
The numbers are certainly of interest regarding the Berkshire course. Surprisingly, backing the horse (or horses if joint favourites) at the top of the market in every single race during the last seven years would have returned a 4% profit, with close to a 37% strike rate.
It’s one thing understanding that favourites generally do well but why is that the case? Sadly, I have no answer, only several hypotheses. The evening nature of the meeting gives punters longer to study? The clientele who frequent the meeting are casual punters who back proportionately more outsiders, therefore boosting the value at the shorter end of the market? The “vibes” behind the fancied runners are stronger at the track? Or maybe the nature of the track plays to form more than others. It’s difficult to pinpoint specifics; the volume of data does make it hard to ignore however.
Before delving into further detail (and as a bit of public service) here is the view of UK tracks which have the worst performing jollies over the same time period.
Earlier I raised a potential hypothesis in relation to the time of the meeting being a factor, more study time effectively meaning the market becomes more efficient. It doesn’t feel like it could be a credible factor? Well, data talk! If we take our info and analyse it by meeting time, there is perhaps a surprising outcome (using horseracebase for this aspect).
Favourites prevail 4.5% more often at evening meetings than at afternoon fixtures! An 8.3% ROI has been attained during the later meetings, opposed to small loss during the earlier timeslots.
In truth, I’m not sure what to do with this intel, and it could obviously be mere happenstance, but thought it to be a worthwhile detour and if you have any theories please do share them in the comments. I did check other courses with a significant number of night meetings and the difference was certainly less noticeable than for this track. Perhaps this is evidence of potentially reading too much into data with no sound reason behind it.
Parking the time of day theme, for now at least, and getting back to evaluating the market leaders in Windsor races, I next assessed the age of the protagonists. This starts to paint a picture of where additional focus may be a rewarding exercise.
Two-year-old favourites at Windsor
The younger end of the age spectrum appears to be the area to concentrate on; it’s certainly where there is a greater demonstrable value. Again, we’re into conjecture about why that may be the case but, equally, the data are clear and compelling.
Starting with the 2YO group first, a logical extension would be to analyse the data based on the experience of the horse through checking the number of previous runs.
According to the info a first time out horse which is sent off favourite is worth taking on, generally speaking. The numbers are undoubtedly inferior to the animals that have at least a modicum of racecourse experience. Removing the debut runners, we’re left with 120 wins from 223 runs, A/E of 1.22 and a return of 24.4% on funds invested.
The table above shows the consistent out-turn of this angle. It’s not my usual hunting ground but I have to say I’m extremely interested in seeing how this one pans out over the glorious British Summer.
Suggestion: back all 2YO favourites at Windsor if they have had previous racecourse experience
Before moving on, there is one potential fly in the ointment. Knowing which horse will be at the head of the market at post time is not an exact science. Realistically, having to take the rough with the smooth (unless you have the luxury to back at the last possible moment) will be the nature of an angle such as this. In other words, there will inevitably be a few winners missed. However, particularly with BOG, there will be plenty of returns at prices better than SP, or at least you’d hope so. Swings and roundabouts.
Three-year-old favourites at Windsor
Moving on to the 3YO Classic generation, there is a clear distinction between handicap and non-handicap races.
That’s a stellar win rate for the non-handicaps at around 44%. However, market expectations are higher leading to an A/E performance of just 1.02 and there is only a single point of SP profit from the 206 runners. As a result, it’s a tough gig attempting to find value there, albeit winners will be plentiful. The market appears to be exceptionally efficient.
However, the handicaps offer a degree of hope, an A/E of 1.09 and 14% return are reasonable if sustainable.
It seems highly plausible that an unexposed 3YO favourite against potential older rivals in a 3YO+ race may perform better than a favourite running against the same unexposed rivals in a 3YO only race. Therefore, a check on the performance by age restriction of the race would make sense.
Sure enough, the numbers support this theory. Again, a potentially reasonable angle with a high strike rate and, in the context of betting on horses, relatively low risk. I’m less sure about the 3YO only races but it’s a matter of personal taste.
Suggestion: back 3YO favourites at Windsor in 3YO+ Handicap races
Windsor Trainers
Departing from the favourite theme there are several stables that seem to be synonymous with strong Windsor form.
The data above show the top eight yards using runners with a maximum SP of 20/1. The A/E is ahead of the market for all of them at greater than 1. Having said that, and frankly speaking, the only two that really appeal in terms of further analysis are Ed Walker and Roger Varian. The IV’s (Impact Value, a measure of how much more often than the group - trainers at Windsor, in this case - perform as a whole, where a figure greater than 1 is better than standard) for both are very strong. The rest of the cast are probably worth another check at some stage but time (and word count) precludes such deliberations today.
Firstly, there is something rather remarkable regarding Ed Walker’s runners:
That’s a striking difference in performance based on SP. Not a single winner at 13/2 or greater from 43 darts thrown.
To check if this is happenstance or a general trait of the stable it’s best to compare the performance by SP for all runners (not just Windsor) for the yard. Evaluating all runs from Walker;
3 victories have been notched from a total of 342 attempts at 18/1 or greater (A/E of 0.27)
31/839 at 8/1 or larger (A/E 0.59).
These numbers indicate that the Ed Walker stable tends to know what chance its runners have, and should be noted for the “don’t back without support” list.
Thus, in general a supported runner representing Ed Walker at Windsor is a serious proposition (this article and data does not include the most recent winner from the yard on Monday 29th April, He’s Amazing at 5/1).
Suggestion: back Ed Walker horses running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less
Secondly, Roger Varian is clearly an elite trainer whose horses often appear to be in the winner's enclosure on a hazy summer evening. His performance is solid all-round, arguably aside from his 2YO’s who seem a little under-powered at 2/14. Taking those out of the equation we again have a similar story to Walker in terms of supported animals delivering much better performance than the relatively neglected entrants.
Same rules apply...
Suggestion: back Roger Varian horses aged 3 or greater running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less
There is a cautionary note however in the case of Varian: 2018 returned one victor from nine attempts, a much lower number of winners and runners than previous years. It may be that Roger V has targeted other races/courses in recent times so monitoring of the situation will be required.
Windsor Jockeys
Reading though Mr Probert’s blog it certainly helps pinpoint the value of having the right pilot on board. I have very few jockey angles, my primary belief being that factors such as horse and trainer ability (or patterns) have much more weight in assessing the likely outcome of a race. However, perhaps there is untapped potential to consider here.
The table below shows a Famous Five using the same criteria (races from 2012 at 20/1 SP or less), again sorted by A/E.
The top two, Harry Bentley and Andrea Atzeni, stand head and shoulders apart, the IV’s are impressive but so are all the other numbers. Atzeni is allied to the Varian operation which accounts for 16 of his 44 wins (51 runs, IV 3.22).
Finding variables to sharpen the focus is difficult though given that so many of the inputs to a horse's performance are non-jockey related. You could argue that a pilot’s performance could vary depending on ground, race distance, pace, and/or number of runners, but Atzeni is strong across all factors. There is no real angle beyond taking an Atzeni-ridden runner very seriously.
With regards to Harry Bentley, it’s more straightforward to find opportunities. The below graph offers interesting insight, namely that races over shorter distances are less productive, at least in terms of A/E and IV.
At races over the minimum trip through to 6 furlongs Bentley is only 4/49 with an A/E of less than 0.5. The results at distances at a mile or greater are a polar opposite: 22/59, A/E 1.93, IV 3.44 and ROI of 113%
That will do as a nice micro to test.
Suggestion: back horses where Harry Bentley is the jockey at Windsor at distances of 8 furlongs or greater (SP 20/1 or less)
That about wraps it up for this edition. I plan to dive into some other UK courses over the coming weeks and months which I hope will be of interest (and potentially utility). I did plan to evaluate pace/draw, course experience and other factors but lost the battle with time on this occasion.
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