Tix Picks, Monday 16/09/24

Hope you all had a great weekend. I certainly enjoyed taking Sunday off, but we now go again, as Monday's placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Thirsk, Windsor & Worcester...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

From which, I've decided to tackle the first six races at Windsor, where the going is expected to be good to soft for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

None of these won their last race, but Harrys Halo and Lahina Bay were both runners-up and the former has made the frame in four of his last six starts. The latter is a former course and distance winner, as are Punchbowl Flyer & Vape and it's Harrys Halo, Lahina Bay & Vape who score best on Instant Expert...

...whilst pace/draw...

...give Vape a huge chance here. My three horse shortlist here would then be (1) Harrys Halo, (6) Lahina Bay and (7) Vape. Lahina Bay looks worst off on pace and I don't want to take three runners here, so I'll leave her out. (5) Punchbowl Flyer is a danger too and might fit your perms if you're going deeper than I am!

Leg 2 : 2.07 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes over 5f

The top four on the card are the ones with the experience and of the four (Amestris, Aviation Time, Seraphim Angel & OverSpiced), only Aviation Time is yet town over 5f, but she did finish third at both Class 2 and in a Listed race earlier this year and drops three classes here. Amestris actually drops four classes here after a three length defeat in a Listed race. Without diving too deeply into the race, I can see this contest quite possibly being a match between this pair and I’ll just a safety-first approach with (1) Amestris and (2) Aviation Time.

Leg 3 : 2.37 Windsor, a 14-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Stakes over 1m

Thyer won last time out, but hasn’t raced since that win 54 weeks ago during which time he has moved yards. Noisy Jazz and Run Away both own on debut before finishing 6th next/last time out at higher grades than this.

None of the others have won a race, whilst Muhib and Tex are making debuts here. Breathless Spirit was a runner-up beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

Stalls 5 to 8 seem to be the best place to run from here (Muhib, Breathless Spirit, Saved Lizzie, Tex)

...whilst Noisy Jazz has set the pace in each of her two starts to date and that could be fruitful here at Windsor...

So from all this, I prefer (4) Noisy Jazz of the three previous winners, as she is the only Class 4 winner in the field and she's likely to be upfront from an early point. Of those with experience, I'd take (9) Breathless Spirit based on his near miss at Chelmsford last month and the fact that he is drawn in that central 5-8 area and of those with little/no previous experience, (10) Muhib is an interesting sort. He's with one of the elite yards and they've bided their time with him, he's by Too Darn Hot out of Hameem, who won 4 of 13 herself and made the frame in 5 of her 9 defeats.

Leg 4 : 3.12 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m3½f

(2) Morcar was a winner here over 1m2f for a second win in four starts when last seen four weeks ago, but steps up in trip, is 7lbs higher today and would probably want quicker ground, but he remains of interest for a place. (1) Mighty Bandit and course winner (3) Fast Steps have both won relatively recently, whilst (5) The Whipmaster is a former course and distance winner, although that was 15 months ago and he’s 0 from 9 since and steps up in class here.

These four are likely to be racing front rank today, if their recent efforts are anything to go by…

…and I think that I'd be happy to stick with the top three on the card here.

Leg 5 : 3.42 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f

A tricky looking one to call here with form claims held by many. (1) Party Island has two wins two thirds from his last six, (2) Macari was a runner-up six days ago, course winner (6) New Kings Road has finished 123 in his last three, (10) Darysina Gold has finished 2212 in her last four and bottom weight (13) Idyllic is the only LTO winner in the field and has finished 2331 in her last four.

Idyllic is, however, up in class today, but both Party Island and New Kings Road drop down from Class 4, whilst from a status perspective, Macari’s claims are boosted by the fact that since 2009, trainer Sheena West is 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) with four further placers from runners in Windsor handicaps who are her only runner at the track that day.

Not usually my thing, but in such an open contest, I’m taking all five from the well!

Leg 6 : 4.12 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m

My initial thoughts here were that in card order, course and distance winner (2) Daisy Roots (121 in her last three), (5) Absolutely Buzzing (LTO winner) and (9) Judge Frank (also won LTO) would be amongst those favoured to do well, but I suspect they’ll also be the first three in the market, which isn’t ideal.

(11) Oriental Spirit and (12) Roman Spring were both runners-up last time, though and the former is noted as a fast finisher. Absolutely Buzzing and Judge Frank are two of five three year olds getting a 4lbs weight allowance.

Pace is often the key to going well here at Windsor and based on the field’s last four races, both Daisy Roots and Roman Spring appear in the first three…

...whilst Judge Frank is likely to race prominently too and he's very conveniently drawn in the central area that seems to do well over a mile here. If truth be told, it might be a bit of a stretch for either or both Roman Spring and/or Oriental Spirit to run two good races in a row, but they do look dangerous and I don't really want to leave any of the top three out from the last leg, in case we're still in with a chance of winning something. I am reluctantly going to take five shots again, but if I was to leave one out, it would probably be Absolutely Buzzing.

All of which gives me an overall (late race heavy) selection of...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1 & 2

Leg 3: horses 4, 9 & 10

Leg 4: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 6, 10 & 13

Leg 6: horses 2, 5, 9, 11 & 12

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck however you play this one, I'm off to see some monkeys!
Chris.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24