Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Friday 27/12/24

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas, we had a quiet (but still enjoyable) one.

Friday's racing comes from Chepstow, Kempton, Leopardstown, Limerick, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £75,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton bettered only by the £100k guaranteed at Chepstow...

I really should tackle one of those bigger pots, so I'll ease myself back into 'work mode' with a trip to Kempton for six races on good to soft ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45...Inappropriate made the frame in six of ten on the Flat, winning twice in his last three efforts before landing a 2m Class 2 race at Newcastle on hurdling debut eight weeks ago and looks like having more to give. Lucky Bere landed two Flat races over 1m4f on heavy ground in France earlier this year and ran well enough to finish second behind a 4/7 fav over this course and distance on his UK/hurdles/yard debut two months ago.

Midnight Rumble had a win and three silvers from his last five starts on the Flat and whilst this is a big step up in trip on hurdle debut, he could still go well for a yard in good form. Nardaran has only raced once to date, finishing third at Saint Cloud on very soft ground. He now makes a UK/hurdles/yard debut for Paul Nicholls who won this race in 2021 and speaks highly of the horse.

Kinetic took a while to get going on hurdles debut at Newbury nine days ago after having won 4 of 20 on the Flat/AW. She made mistakes early and had a lot of ground to make and although only 4th of 9, was doing her better work late on and could improve for the run. Of these five (and in card order), I'm taking (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2 @ 1.20...West Balboa has made the frame in 7 of 11 (4 wins) over hurdles and although well beaten in two Listed races ( 1 hurdle, 1 chase) so far this term, was a decent 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap over this trip at Aintree in April. Della Casa Lunga finished as runner-up in a Listed race here a month ago and the drop in class is sure to help her. She did win over this trip as recently as four starts ago, when over 8 lengths clear at Ludlow.

Royale Margaux is somehow still a maiden after 13 starts ( 9 x chase, 4 x hurdle), but was second at Ascot beaten by just 2.5 lengths on November and then 4th of 12 in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (3.75 lengths down) a fortnight ago, so she's definitely in good nick. That Ascot run was not only her best performance to date, but also the only time she has gone beyond 2m5f, so this trip might suit her better. Larchmont Lass finished 24145 over hurdles last season but win on her reappearance at Wincanton in early November and backed that up with a third place on heavy ground at Sandown three weeks ago. Her two wins have been at 2m6f, so she should also relish the extra yardage today.

No actual standouts here for me, but I'll take (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass in card order.

Leg 3 @ 1.55...This really should be a two-horse race between (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino and I'll put both on my bet builder.

Ballyburn has only failed to win once to date and that was when a runner-up in a 24-horse contest on hurdles debut just over a year ago. Since then, he has landed three Grade 1 hurdles and was a 13-length winner on his chase debut at Punchestown five weeks ago when coming back off a 204-day break. Sir Gino is five from five over hurdles so far, winning a pair of Grade 1 contests either side of a 233-day absence in his last two starts. If he takes to fences as he has done to hurdles, he could be a real prospect.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...Edwardstone has made the frame in more than half of his 32 career starts with a very record of 10 wins from 29 over hurdles/fences. He has fallen in two of his last four, but won a Grade 2 at Newbury in February and was only beaten by just over two lengths at that level in November at Cheltenham. Boothill was a Class 2 and a Class 1 handicap winner last season and was a 1.5 length runner-up to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, which is no disgrace of course. He's currently 5lbs higher than his last win, but this looks weaker than his last race.

Martator is in prime form, winning each of his last five and is 2 from 2 this season after returning from a six month break. A big hike in his mark here, but you can't argue with his attitude. Soul Icon struggled at Grade 1 last time out, but had finished as the runner-up in each of his previous five races, including a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest either side of a 112-day break. Not ideal that he's 4lbs out of the handicap here, but should still run his race.

In card order, it's (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator here for me.

Leg 5 @ 3.08...Highstakesplayer finished 3112 in his last four over hurdles and has four wins and a runner-up finish from seven over fences, including a 2 from 2 record over course and distance. Down in class here but needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Newbury last time out. Frero Banbou ended a run of 17 defeats when winning off a falling mark of 127 at Newcastle in a Class 1 handicap over this trip last time out. His previous win in January 2022 was off today's 134, so he might not be weighted out of this and he drops two classes.

Golden Son won here over 2m4f ten months ago, but has failed to shine in three outings since, finishing 6th of 7 and then falling in his final two runs of last season and he was last home of nine (40 lengths down) at Newbury on his seasonal bow. Has ability and is down in class, but not reliable enough yet after just seven starts. Dreaming Blue, however, is definitely going in the right direction. He has made the frame in 7 of 15 chases, winning four times and comes here on a run reading 1131. He's up against better horses here but did win quite comfortably over 3m1½f last time out.

It's going to be (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue for me from this one.

Leg 6 @ 3.38...Valgrand didn't seem at his best when only 10th of 14 (20 lengths down) on handicap debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, but having finished 1112 in his other four runs over hurdles (the last two at Grade 2), I'd not be writing him off just yet. Aucunrisque is 331 in his three Class 3 handicap hurdle outings this season and although he's up 4lbs to a mark of 133 has every chance here, especially as he won a Class 1 handicap at Newbury off 138 last year.

Willmount is very lightly raced, but won both of his bumpers in 2023. He then won on hurdles debut after a 250-day absence in November 2023, but was pulled up in a Grade 1 almost a year ago and subsequently fell next/last time out at Cheltenham a fortnight as he reappeared from 349 days off. You'd expect Nicky Henderson to be working on his hurdling and his bumper form shows he has enough ground speed, but he does need to jump better. Ooh Betty didn't show much when 12th of 13 in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but had finished in the first three home in 10 of her previous 11, so she has every right to go well again back down in class. She won a similar event to this on her seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago which was her fifth win in ten starts and she's not out of this.

I can make a case for all four and at the risk of going against the market, I feel that the likely fav Willmount has most to prove over hurdles, so I'm siding with (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...



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Leg 1: (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2: (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass

Leg 3: (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino

Leg 4: (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator

Leg 5: (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue

Leg 6: (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

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