Tix Picks, Saturday 02/11/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ascot, Ayr, Newmarket, Southwell & Wetherby

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And despite a truly terrible day on Friday, I feel compelled to have another go at the day's biggest pot, which therefore takes us to Ascot for six races on good ground starting with...

Race 1 at 12.55, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f...

Don't Tell Su was 5th of 15 on debut in a bumper at Warwick at the end of 2022 and has finished 123212 since, Katate Dori drops in class after four third placed finishes on the bounce, Hell Hound won at Southwell in early June and ran a commendable third of eleven on his seasonal reappearance at this grade four weeks ago.

Easter Icon won on handicap debut at Fontwell at the end of August, whilst Star of Affinity defied a five-month break to win at Exeter just over three weeks ago. Ballytechno also won last time out, landing a Class 4 maiden at Huntingdon 25 days ago and my Instant Expert ones to consider would be...

Previous past races have suited prominent/front running types, which should benefit...

...and with this pair being on my preview and the Instant Expert graphic, they both go on my ticket builder, to which I'll add Hell Hound, who was far from disgraced on his hat-trick attempt last time out, finishing third after a four month layoff. The horse in fourth that day has since finished second at Plumpton, whilst the horse in eighth has returned to Fontwell and won.

Race 2 at 1.30, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Novice Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

Bhaloo brings the best form to the table and if converting that hurdling form to the larger obstacles should go well here, whilst Samarrive was second of flour here, beaten by less than two lengths over course and distance last time out. That was almost a year ago, but did come off the back of a seven month break, so he does go well first up and has a win and four places from his last six starts.

Bottom weight Leader In The Park looks the better of the two Ben Pauling runners and drops in class for his chase debut. He did win his sole PTP outing by 56 lengths and cost his owners £250k and an opening mark of 121 might prove to be very lenient.

Bad is an 8-race maiden and What path is winless in ten, so I'll disregard that pair and of the other trio, I think I have a marginal preference for (3) Bhaloo & (5) Leader In The Park over Samarrive, especially Ben Pauling's record here...

Race 3 at 2.05, a 10-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

Master Chewy has made the frame in 5 of 7 over fences and was a runner-up beaten by just a head at grade 1 last time out, Malystic is 10 yrs old but hasn't given up just yet, placing in each of his last three and also went down by a head as runner-up last time out, but he is up in class here, as is Matterhorn whose run of four successive chase wins from his first four attempts was ended when pulled up at Newton Abbot in August.

Saint Segal would be an unlikely winner after eight losses on the bounce, but always tends to be there or thereabouts (50% place strike rate from 16 starts!) and was third in this race last year off 2lbs higher than today. Martator has yet to finish out of the first three in eight efforts over fences and comes here off the back of three straight wins, including one over course and distance, whilst bottom weight Frere D'Armes looks like getting back to his old form after making the frame in his last two outings, going down by just a length at Kempton a fortnight ago. This is tougher from out of the handicap though and here's how all six have fared under these conditions over the last couple of years from both a win and a place perspective...

...and with the pace chart also favouring (4) Matterhorn and (7) Martator...

...I'll take this pair along with (1) Master Chewy, who I think is probably the 'best' horse in the race and backed up by a couple of interesting stats...

Race 4 at 2.35, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f...

Illegal D'Ainay won a Class 4 maiden hurdle last time out but steps up in class after six months off, Beylerbeyi also won last time out, but that was a 1m1½f A/W handicap at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, also at Class 4 and after 22 races on the Flat/AW at that trip or shorter now starts a hurdling career.

Clap Of Thunder made his hurdles bow at Chepstow three weeks ago after a 194-day absence and was a modest 4th of 11, but should improve for the run. Tackletommywoo has been third on both bumper starts before today, but the one to beat here has to be Tripoli Flyer, if he overcomes a near 7 month layoff on his hurdles debut. He landed a £21k Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January before a one-length defeat as runner-up to stablemate Horaces Pearl (who was completing a hat-trick) in a Grade 2, 18-runner bumper worth £28k at the Liverpool Festival. Anything like that will be more than good enough here.

(7) Tripoli Flyer is the obvious pick here, especially with his jockey's record at this venue...

...and I'll supplement that pick by also taking a chance on (1) Illegal D'Ainay.

NOTE Tripoli Flyer was withdrawn whilst I was writing the column, so I added Clap of Thunder at the last minute.

Race 5 at 3.15, a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f...

In card order, I'd narrowed the field down to six runners using my own ratings and race parameters ie (1) Our Champ, (3) Fiercely Proud, (5) Afadil, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul and I'm going to focus on these.

Our Champ probably needed the run at Market Rasen LTO after 164 days off, but did win a Class 2 handicap at Plumpton back in March. Fiercely Proud hasn't raced since going down by 9 lengths at Sandown on April, but showed enough ability to be a Grade 2 runner-up two starts ago.

Afadil looked rusty when returning from five months off at Chepstow last month, but he did finish 331 from late November last year after an indifferent seasonal reappearance and was only beaten by 4 lengths when 5th of 17 in a Class 1 handicap at the Cheltenham Festival this year before finishing 3rd of 19 at the Liverpool Festival and 4th of 15 in the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April, beaten by just a length having been carried right by the third placed horse. It was a cracking run after two big races in the previous five weeks and if getting close to last spring's form would be a real danger here.

Secret Squirrel rarely runs a bit bad race and can be forgiven a 7 length defeat last time out having finished 1112241 in his other career outings. He made a mistake at the last at Sandown when last seen and would have been much closer otherwise, so he has a live chance here, especially after winning off the back of a 220-day absence last November.

Tapley has made the frame in 11 of 17 (64.7%) over hurdles, winning four times including last time out at Plumpton a fortnight ago. That was only at Class 4, but was also his comeback run after 163 days off following a 2nd of 15 in a Class 1 handicap at Haydock and his record over the last year reads 134213421.

Break My Soul will step up two classes here as she seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins over hurdles after scoring at Chepstow and Fontwell. She was third of nine at Newbury on her only handicap run and was third of eleven at that same venue on her sole Class 2 contest when making her debut a tear ago. Her entire career form reads 32311 and she did win an 11-runner contest at Chepstow by 25 lengths two starts ago.

Instant Expert for this half dozen looks like this...

and their 'recent' pace scores are as follows...

Now, I really like Afadil as a horse, but if I'm following the process, he's the weakest on both IE and pace and as much as I think Fiercely Proud has a great chance here, he doesn't score as well as the others on both counts either. I also have some reservations about his temperament, he had to be withdrawn at Cheltenham last week after unseating his jockey and getting loose. If he behaves himself and gets away with the others, he could well win, but I'm not convinced he won't play up, so I'll reluctantly omit him and take the other four; (1) Our Champ, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul

Race 6 at 3.45, an 11-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f...

(1) Chianti Classico was 1121 in 3m/3m1f chases last season culminating in a Class 1 handicap win at the Cheltenham Festival before tackling a Grade 1 at Aintree. That proved to be a bit strong for him, but he ran with credit, going down by 8 lengths. (8) Neon Moon ended last season by winning at Newbury and then finishing third of eight at Kempton before taking 159 days off. He then reappeared at Chepstow three weeks ago and despite running from 4lbs out of the handicap, managed to win by a length and a half.

(9) Highstakesplayer ended his hurdles campaign by finishing 3112. Since then his chase record reads 111P1 and although not seen since April, he won in February after 458 days off and also in October 2022 after 227 days off, (10) Mylesfromwicklow likes to lead from the front and has made the frame in six of eight (2 wins) over fences and was only beaten by a length and a half last time out, whilst (11) Hidden Depths has won three of his last five and has been kept running throughout the British 'summer'. he comes here seeking a hat-trick, but this does represent a fairly big step up in class.

Neon Moon doesn't look quite as good as the others on both Instant Expert and the pace profile, whilst Hidden Depth also struggles from a pace perspective and might well be out of his depth (sorry!) with the rise in class...

...leaving me with (1) Chianti Classico, (9) Highstakesplayer & (10) Mylesfromwicklow for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Don't Tell Su, (2) Katate Dori & (7) Hell Hound

Leg 2: (3) Bhaloo & (5) Leader In The Park

Leg 3: (1) Master Chewy, (4) Matterhorn and (7) Martator

Leg 4: (1) Illegal D'Ainay & (7) Tripoli Flyer (3) Clap Of Thunder

Leg 5: (1) Our Champ, (8) Secret Squirrel, (9) Tapley and (11) Break My Soul

Leg 6: (1) Chianti Classico, (9) Highstakesplayer & (10) Mylesfromwicklow

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone and I hope you all have a great weekend!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24