Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Saturday 19/10/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ascot, Catterick, Stratford & Wolverhampton.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

It's an absolutely huge pot on offer at Ascot, but there other writers on Geegeez to write about Champions' Day whilst I stay in my lane with my bread and butter at tracks like Wolverhampton, where the tapeta is unsurprisingly standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.27, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

Simiyann has finished 212 in his last three, won here 12 days ago and was only beaten by half a length two days ago. Grand Duchess Olga also has a win and two places from her last three (133), whilst Daaris has made the first three home in nine of his last eleven without managing to win any.

Trojan Truth has two wins and an LTO runner-up finish from his last five, whilst Baileys Warrior has a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four and it is this group of five who have been the most consistent over the last couple of years...

We're not going to get much help from the draw over such a long trip and most of this field have pretty similar pace profiles, so we're going to lean on recent form and gut feeling here. Former course winner (1) Simiyann brings the best recent form to the table and (6) Baileys Warrior is the only previous course and distance winner, so I'll take both of those as most likely to go on and win here. Winning isn't something that (3) Daaris does often but he barely runs a bad race and tends to always be involved at the finish, so I'll add him at the expense of Grand Duchess Olga.

Leg 2 @ 5.00, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 1m1½f...

A pretty modest looking field that looks like a two-horse race between Corundum and Show Biz Kid. The former struggled at a higher grade last time out, but no drops back in class to the level that he was only beaten by a length and a half at Southwell on early September, which is probably the best run of any of this group.

Show Biz Kid was also a decent third at Nottingham last time out when just over a length and a half behind Phoenix Passion and a neck behind Drink Dry; this pair have both gone on to win since has has ther horse in sixth place. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't been seen since that run 136 days ago during which time he has been gelded and moved yards.

That said, it's still (1) Corundum and (2) Show Biz Kid here for me and the rest are much of a muchness.

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

We'renotreallyhere has a win and three places from his last six, Apache Canyon has been third in each of his last three and gets a 4lbs weight for age allowance. Harbour Vision was a runner-up two starts ago, Jez Bomb also gets that 4lbs allowance and has two wins and three places from his last eight starts, whilst fellow 3yo and eight-race maiden Miss Dandylion has been third four times.

Instant Expert highlights the following on 2yr place form...

...whilst over a course and distance that rewards front-runners, Harbour Vision and We'renotreallyhere might be the ones the others have to chase...

(6) Harbour Vision is a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year off a mark four pounds higher than today, he's running well, has good 2yr figures above and will be upfront here, so I'll take him along with fellow front-runner (4) We'renotreallyhere. (8) Jez Bomb brings the best recent form to the table today and he completes my selections for this one.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

None of these even made the frame last time out, but the 'form' horse must be course and distance winner Monsieur Patat with his three wins and two places in five races before going down by just over a length and a half at Kempton last time out in a race so competitive that the first eight home of the thirteen runners were only a length and three quarters apart and although the race lacks genuine early pace, he's one of those most likely to be at the head of affairs...

...alongside fellow course and distance winner Guiteau. Both of these also caught my eye on Instant Expert...

...as did Twilight Dancer to a lesser degree. She failed to see the mile out at Lingfield five weeks ago fading out of contention in the final 100yds, but was a decent second at the same track over 7f nine days earlier. Back in April, she actually made all to win over 7f at Brighton, where pace is essential, so that early speed is definitely in her locker. She's 6lbs lower than that win today so (4) Twilight Dancer joins (2) Monsieur Patat and (3) Guiteau on my Tix ticket builder.

Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Rosenzoo looks a better horse on the A/W than he does on turf where he has been last home of five and last of six on his last two attempts compared with finishes of 122 from his three visits to Wolverhampton, going down by just a head last time out. Warren Hill wasn't seen at this best at Windsor on his last run, but had previously caught the eye when winning there over 1m2f on her penultimate outing. She missed the break, but ran on strongly to win by a length and a quarter with seemingly plenty in the tank.

Handicap debutant Monsieur Fudge is interesting after a couple of solid efforts making the frame at both Newmarket and Salisbury a year apart and a similar run puts him in contention here. I mentioned Drink Dry earlier in this piece after his runner-up finish at Nottingham in June. He then won at Beverley and was a decent third at Sandown last time out. This quartet would be my form shortlist, whilst the pace averages here are headed by three of this group...

I don't think there's a huge advantage to be gleaned from the draw, but the central area (stalls 4 to 7) seem the best place to be...

...which is where Rosenzoo finds himself, whilst my other three possibles are out in 9, 10 & 11 of 11 stalls! (7) Rosenzoo ticks most boxes here for me and I think that the 4yo filly (1) Warren Hill might actually be the best horse in the race irrespective of today's result, so I'm taking those two. It's then a tricky call between the other two, but I'm going to take a punt on the unexposed handicap debutant (4) Monsieur Fudge, who might improve past Drink Dry here.

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Salamanca Lad has won three times from his last seven outings, making the frame in two of the four defeats and can still go well of an unchanged mark of 78. Visibility won here over course and distance twelve days ago after two narrow defeats in third place at this track but at a furlong shorter. getting beat so close over the shorter trip and needing all of today's distance to get home last time out suggests he might need a bit further, but he's bang in form and loves it here at Wolverhampton.

Elsewhere Rocket Warrior has two wins and two places from his last six, Local Bay has four wins and two places from his last nine, Charlies Choice has five top-three finishes (2 wins) from his last seven and Secret World has made the frame in three of his last four.

Three of the six mentioned above head the pace averages...

...with (4) Salamanca Lad likely to try and nick the race from the off and both he and (3) Rocket Warrior are drawn in that stalls 4 to 7 range I mentioned in the previous race, so I'll take both of these based on form, draw and pace.

My other four shortlisted runners look like this on Instant Expert...



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...so there's a case to be made for any of them, but I just feel that (7) Visibility brings the best recent form to the table and he really loves it here at Wolverhampton.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Simiyann, (3) Daaris & (6) Baileys Warrior

Leg 2: (1) Corundum & (2) Show Biz Kid

Leg 3: (4) We'renotreallyhere, (6) Harbour Vision & (8) Jez Bomb

Leg 4: (2) Monsieur Patat, (3) Guiteau & (4) Twilight Dancer

Leg 5: (1) Warren Hill, (4) Monsieur Fudge & (7) Rosenzoo

Leg 6: (3) Rocket Warrior, (4) Salamanca Lad & (7) Visibility

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck and I hope you have a great weekend. No column Monday, I'm afraid, I'm tied up with hospital appointments with my elderly mother-in-law, so I'll see you next Tuesday.

Chris

 

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