Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24

Saturday's racing comes from Catterick, Leicester, Leopardstown, Limerick, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

...and with so much money at stake at Newbury, I really should make that my focus today for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...Spring Note is two from over this track/trip over here including a win in this race last year and has also scored at 2m3f here, but was pulled up before the last here four weeks ago on her seasonal bow. Should come on for the run and the drop back to a favoured trip and down in class. Break My Soul is one of those ideal placepot types with six places from her seven starts to date. Was beaten by just a nose at a higher grade at Ascot two starts ago and jockey bookings suggest she's the yard no. 1 ahead of Spring Note above. First time hood today too.

Panic Attack went really well at Ludlow earlier this month, finishing third on yard debut for Dan Skelton in a Class 2 handicap, despite coming off a break of over 21 months, going down by just over two lengths staying on. Down in class, she could go well here if feeling no ill effects from the comeback run. Sunset Marquesa is lightly raced, but won a Class 4 bumper on debut and made the frame in three Listed bumpers. Was a runner-up on hurdles debut after an eight month break and then won by 11 lengths at Uttoxeter next/last time out. Up in class here, but shows promise and a mark of 114 isn't punitive.

Tour Ovalie has three wins and three places from her eight handicap starts and is 311 this season. She's down in class here, but up another 6lbs for her latest run/win. That said she's still only 13lbs higher than her opening mark from March, so she might not yet be in the handicapper's grip.

All five are more than capable of winning/placing here, but I'm going with (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie.

Leg 2 @ 12.37...Koapey has knocked on the door on both starts to date, finishing as runner-up in a bumper and in a 2m hurdle, both at Ffos Las and he travelled well in both races. The winner of the hurdle contest has made the frame again since, so today could be Koapey's day. La Marquise might however be the one to beat here. She won two of three bumpers before finishing third in a grade 2 one at the Aintree Festival this year. She then took 196 days off but came back in late October to win on her hurdles debut despite being badly hampered and she should come on for the experience.

Wotter Trotter has just one run to date, but showed signs of potential/promise when only beaten by 4.5 lengths on debut at Huntingdon three weeks ago. His jumping was decent enough and he finished well to come home fourth of the ten runners. Bottom weight Star Time gets chunks of weight all round as this 3yo makes a hurdling debut off the back of two Flat wins over 1m2f and 1m4f. This form should help scoot between hurdles, so it's just a case of how he jumps. He's worth considering at what should be a decent price.

(4) Koapey and (8) La Marquise seem to pick themselves, so I think I'll take (11) Star Time as the backup for a bit of value.

Leg 3 @ 1.12...Skycutter is 221 since returning from a 207-day break in early November and beat the re-opposing The Good Doctor by a length and a half last time out. he's up 5lbs for that win but is going really well right now, whilst the runner-up, The Good Doctor, was a further 15 lengths clear of the pack that day on what was his first run for over seven months and was his chase debut. There's more to come from this one and he's 3lbs better off with Skycutter today.

No Risk With Lou has a win and a place from three starts since being fitted with a hood and being ridden more patiently. This former front-runner has been held up in rear on those three races but there's a danger of him getting left adrift here with four of his rivals usually happy to crack on. The Famous Five won a pair of Class 4 handicaps at the end of last season before a 252 day break. He was 7th of 13 at Class 1 on his return and not disgraced in a 12 length defeat and the horses in 9th, 11th and 12th that day have all raced and won since, including Ooh Betty (12th) who scored as recently as yesterday in a race we covered.

(1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five would be my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Go To War looks the yard pick of the two Nicky Henderson runners and he has finished 3112 in his last four starts, going down by just over four lengths at Huntingdon last time out on his return from more than eight months of the track, so he should be ready for this. Mr Bramley was the runner-up in the last two of three bumper runs and has made the frame in all four starts over hurdles, finishing 1131 and was a ready 6.5 length winner at Wetherby a month ago despite just coming back from seven months off.

Mr Hope Street is also in great form with a last five form line reading 11211 with wins at 2m4f to 3m and the defeat was by just half a length on his return from five months off. A mark of 124 is an 8lb rise, but that might not anchor him just yet. Getalead has finished 11815 so far this term and 1115 under today's jockey, 7lb claimer Gearoid Harney. He weakened quite badly off this mark last time out and it may be that he's either in the assessor's hands or he just needs a bit of a break as this will be a sixth race in nine weeks.

I'll leave Getalead out, despite his obvious ability and stick with the more in-form trio of (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street.

Leg 5 @ 2.20...Surrey Quest is rated some 11lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ended last season by getting beaten on the nod in the Class 1 Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. He was then rested for seven months before coming back to achieve another Class 1 runner-up spot, this time at Cheltenham over a trip similar to this one. A good run is expected, but a mark of 139 leaves little room for error. Henry's Friend won at this meeting last year before going on to win at Class 3 and Grade 2 on his next two outings. Hasn't been the same in his two runs this season so far, but battled hard in a 7.5 length defeat over course and distance in the Class 1 Coral Gold Cup last time out and now drops in class.

Brave Kingdom is lightly raced, but is solidly if unspectacularly consistent. He won his sole bumper way back in February 2021 and then finished 131 in his three efforts over hurdles, all inside the last eight weeks of 2021. He was then off track for almost 23 months before winning on chase debut at Plumpton in November of last year. he won again next time out a month later, but was pulled up on his last start in a Grade 2 at Ascot and is of obvious interest with an overall 5 from 7 record and a history of running well after a break. Inch House clearly has potential as results of 4313112 from his first seven starts would show, culminating in a Class runner-up finish last New Year's Day at Cheltenham. Conversely, he ran poorly in two subsequent runs last season and was pulled up here at Newbury last time out on his seasonal reappearance/yard debut. Cheekpieces are applied today and we'll wonder which Inch House turns up.

Hoe Joly Smoke made the frame in the four of the five hurdle races he completed, but didn't manage to win any (23P32) and was a runner-up on chase debut at Uttoxeter in mid-October before going on to break his duck with a soft ground win over 3m½f at Sandown three weeks ago. He's up 7lbs for that win, but still lurks dangerously down near the foot of the weights (gets 12lbs off Surrey Quest for example) and probably/hopefully has more to give.

Surrey Quest's weight means I'll reluctantly omit him from my bet builder and Inch House's inconsistency rules him out for me, leaving me with (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke for this one.

Leg 6 @ 2.55...Bill Joyce has proven tough to beat so far, aside from a poor run in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He had won both his previous bumpers quite comfortably and was was rested for eight months after the defeat. Since then he is two from two over hurdles and landed a Grade 2 at Sandown three weeks ago. Regent's Stroll has yet to taste defeat, winning two bumpers and his hurdles debut. That last run was here at Newbury a month ago where he defied a bad mistake two out to win by almost ten lengths. Significantly up in class and trip here, but the potential is clear to see.

The New Lion also has a similar three from three record after winning a bumper in April and hurdles successes over 2m4f at Chepstow two months ago and here over course and distance a month back. This trip clearly holds no threat to him, but like Regent's Stroll, he also faces a step up in class. Any of the three could win this and they'll probably head the market too, so I'm going to take all three ie (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion in a safety-first approach and if you asked me for a winner, I'd probably go with Bill Joyce, who has won a Grade 2 over a similar trip and who'll probably offer most value.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie

Leg 2: (4) Koapey, (8) La Marquise & (11) Star Time

Leg 3: (1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five

Leg 4: (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street

Leg 5: (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke

Leg 6: (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24