Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24

Saturday's racing comes from Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newbury & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury in addition to a guarantee of £50k at Newcastle...

I do like to be in for a penny, in for a pound, so let's head for the soft ground at Newbury for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.07...The bookies seem to think that this is a four-horse race and I'd be inclined to agree with them.

(1) Sansrisk comes here seeking a hurdles hat-trick having won a Grade 3 race at Down Royal at the start of the month. That race probably wasn't the best Gr 3 you'll see, but she does technically drop in class here and is clearly in good nick. Had a win and a place in her last two bumpers before that pair of hurdles wins too and her jockey is flying right now, making the frame in 36 (50.7%) of his 71 rides over the last month, winning 18 times (25.4%)

(2) Listentoyourheart also comes here seeking a hat-trick of her own after wins at Classes 4 and 2. She also had a win and two silvers from four bumpers and was a very creditable 5th of 16 in a Grade 2 bumper at this year's Aintree Festival. Her most recent win was over today's course and distance and she loos like a horse on the rise.

(4) Jubilee Alpha was a runner-up in that Aintree bumper above three lengths ahead of Listentoyourheart, which suggests that she might go well here today, but we'd have to take both her fitness and her hurdling on trust as she hasn't raced since then, nor has she raced over hurdles, as her only other previous run was a two-length success in a Class 5 bumper at Wincanton ten months ago. Mind you, she's trained by Paul Nicholls, so you know she'll have been well schooled.

(9) Walkadina completes the shortlist here and comes here off the back of both a recent run and a win over hurdles, achieved in an easy 13 lengths success at Uttoxeter four weeks ago despite not having raced for 191 days. It wasn't a great race (Class 4), but the distant runner-up has since won by 11 lengths at the same grade.

Walkadina has every right to improve for her last run, but I feel that she's starting from a lower point than the other three I mentioned, so she's the one to miss out, sadly.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...This looks like a race likely to be dominated by the top half of the card and top weight (1) Fidelio Vallis comes here off the back of a win last time out and a last four form form line reading 2241 since moving to his current yard, all of which is good, but he hasn't raced since winning on New Year's Day and is up 6lbs for that four length success. (2) Le Milos races off a mark 2lbs lower than when he won a Class 1 handicap at this meeting back in 2022, which at the time was his fourth win in five races. A hike in weight put paid to further wins and he has finished 2030075 since, but now finally drops back to a weight we know he can win off, if the old ability is still there.

(3) Twinjets started his chase career this time last year with a decent third of nine at Ascot followed up by a win at Doncaster in December. He looked like needing the run after 288 days off when 5th of 11 at Chepstow last month, but was unlucky to bump into a progressive type last out, finishing second here at Newbury over 2m4f and I suspect the step back up in trip will help. (4) Inch House finished 431 over hurdles before showing a similar progression over fences last year season finishing 3112 before a couple of disappointments. He was only 4th of 5, beaten by 57 lengths here at Newbury over 2m7½f in February and then fell at the first fence at Ayr in April and hasn't been seen since, moving yards during the layoff. Has ability for sure, but probably neds a run to get the confidence back.

(5) Highstakesplayer is a consistent sort having made the frame in 11 of his 16 (3 x NHF, 7 x hrds & 6 x chs) outings, but his chase form is easily the best of the three codes with results reading 111P12 with that run probably his best, finishing as a three length runner-up in a decent Class 1 handicap at Ascot four weeks ago. That was his first run for 194 days, so he should strip fitter for that and he now drops in class. He's only up a pound for that run and has to be considered, as does (6) Genois who generally tends to be there or thereabouts, making the frame in 10 of 19 starts so far, culminating in a Class handicap win at Wetherby at the start of the month despite the 2m3½f trip probably being a bit too sharp for him. He beat the runner-up Galop de Chasse by three lengths that day and that horse was a decent enough third of nine here yesterday.

You can make a case for any of those, but my 1-2-3 would be (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...(1) Califet En Vol made the frame in a five-length defeat on debut in an Ayr bumper in April and then went back to the shed for 205 days before reappearing for a hurdling debut at Kempton 19 days ago, where he absolutely breezed up, winning over today's trip by some fifteen lengths and looks to be another talent off the Nicky Henderson conveyor belt.

(4) The New Lion also only has two runs under his belt and his yard have high hopes for him after a 5.5 length win in a bumper at Market Rasen back in April was eventually followed up 202 days later with a win on hurdle debut at Chepstow a month ago, where he won by five lengths pulling further clear as the line approached. Since that run, the eighth-placed horse has finished 3rd of 8 back over that Chepstow course and distance and the horse in ninth was a 13 length winner at Hereford 18 days ago.

(5) French Ship finished 421 in bumpers, was second on hurdles debut and then won an eleven-runner Class 4 maiden at Chepstow earlier in the month, beating Let It Rain by just over two lengths. These two were some 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse who beat the fourth by 13 lengths. The third has since been a runner-up at Doncaster, whilst Let It Rain won at Wetherby three days ago and whilst all this is good, my preferred option is to take (4) The New Lion to beat (1) Califet En Vol here

Leg 4 @ 1.54...(5) Impose Toi is a model of consistency, making the frame in all seven starts to date, winning a pair of Class 4 handicaps and at Class 3 along the way. He was unlucky not to land a big Class 1 handicap at Ascot last December when he hit the penultimate hurdle and lost ground, resulting in him going down by just a neck and he was a decent 3rd of 19 at Kempton last time in this grade.

(8) Inthewaterside is another consistent sort, whose only failure to make the frame in his seven outings was a five length defeat in this grade at Ascot a year ago. Since that run, he won a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield, was a Class 2 runner-up at Ascot in mid-February and was a solid third of nineteen in a Class 1 handicap at this year's Aintree Festival five lengths behind Kateira who won a Listed race last week. Has had a wind op whilst away from the track and I expect more this season from this one.

(9) Issam is a danger here back up in trip after a creditable 4th of 10 over 2m at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago. This trip should really suit him better as his form over 2m3f to 2m4f reads 2131201. His mark of 129 might not leave much room for error, as his last win was only by a length and a quarter off 125 at a lower class than this, so he'd need things to fall his way, but he should still be in the hunt for a place.

(11) Guard The Moon completes my shortlist as yet another consistent progressive type who always seems to be on the premises. he won two of his three bumper outings and has finished 322112 over hurdles, winning at both Classes 4 and 3. He stepped up to Class 2for the first time at Aintree three weeks ago and went really well for most of the race before being headed between the penultimate and last hurdles, eventually finishing second of nine, 2.5 lengths behind Harbour Lake who went well again three days ago. 3m1f at Aintree seemed to stretch Guard The Moon and the drop back in trip should be a bonus here.

All four stand a really good chance of at least a place, but they can't all finish in the first three and whilst there's not much between them, I'm omitting Issam.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...(1) Salver won his first four over hurdles including a Grade 2 at Chepstow last Christmas and was a decent third of twelve in this year's Gr1 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Hasn't been seen since, so might need the run, but if ready, should go well. (3) Our Champ has won two of his last four, both in Class 2 handicaps, the latest just four weeks ago at Ascot, so he's in good nick. He is up 5lbs to a career-high mark, but he might not quite be done yet.

(4) Jeriko Du Reponet can be hit (3 from 3 to start his career) or miss (pulled up in each of his last/subsequent two), but on his day he's a smart hurdler who won a Grade 2 at Doncaster back in January. In his defence the two pull-ups were (i) at the Cheltenham Festival in a grade 1 and (ii) over fences at Sandown three weeks ago after eight months off track. I suspect that effort over fences was just to get some yards into his legs and open the airways and he could/should do better here.

(5) Queens Gamble is in sparking form, after two wins and a place from four bumpers, this 6yo mare is 3 from 3 over hurdles and was a Listed class winner at Taunton last time out. The only thing that might be an issue is race fitness, as she hasn't raced since that win at Taunton some eleven months ago. (7) Ooh Betty completes my shortlist for this one, even though I could have suggested another few! She's another 6yo mare in good form who from this time of year last year finished 11232 over hurdles with a a Listed class runner-up finish at Cheltenham in April ending her season. She returned to action after 206 days off to land a Class 3 handicap at Sandown three weeks ago and despite a 6lbs rise, should go well again today.

Easy to say back all of them, but my preference would be for (5) Queens Gamble to take this. I'm happy tog take a chance on getting the right version of (4) Jeriko Du Reponet and the value play is (3) Our Champ who for me is very viable 20/1 E/W option in a race paying four places for thirteen runners.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...It's a really open looking race and I think I'll take two of those towards the sharp end of the market and two longer priced chances. The two from the top would be (3) Senior Chief and (12) Victtorino. The former has made the frame in 9 of 10 starts and won a Class 2 handicap in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham last month off the back of a seven month break, whilst the latter was very good this time last year and I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. He returned from a 223-day absence to win a Class 1 handicap at Ascot in November, before repeating the feat seven weeks later over the same course and distance and if he starts this season (after 263 days off) in the same vein, he might be tough to ignore.

My two longer shots at this would be (5) Colonel Harry and (1) Sam Brown. The Colonel represents last year's winning trainer and jockey and has a similar kind of profile to stablemate Datsalrightgino. he was a Listed class runner-up at Carlisle four weeks ago off the back of a seven month break and was Grade 2 winner over fences at Wetherby back in January, so clearly has something about him, whilst Sam Brown is a bit more of a left-field outside the box pick. He's the 12 yr old top weight with stacks of experience. he has won here before, relishes the softer ground, has won at both Gr 1 and Gr 2 and was only beaten by less than five lengths at Grade 2 last time out. That was at Wetherby four weeks ago coming off a six month break and ther might just be one (or two) big run left in the old boy.

I'm going to take all four in a belt and braces approach!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Listentoyourheart, (1) Sansrisk & (4) Jubilee Alpha

Leg 2: (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois

Leg 3: (4) The New Lion & (1) Califet En Vol

Leg 4: (5) Impose Toi, (8) Inthewaterside & (11) Guard The Moon

Leg 5: (5) Queens Gamble, (4) Jeriko Du Reponet & (3) Our Champ

Leg 6: (3) Senior Chief, (5) Colonel Harry, (12) Victtorino & (1) Sam Brown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

The best of luck to you all and I hope you have a great weekend.
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24