Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24

Tuesday's racing comes from Clonmel, Lingfield, Southwell & Newcastle.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

And despite the larger pot being offered at Newcastle, I'm reminded that most people prefer the NH to the A/W at this time of year, so we're off to Southwell for the following six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.15...Jaramillo won by 12 lengths over hurdles at 2m4f at Sedgefield in September and was a half length runner-up back over the same course and distance last time out off 9lbs higher and if taking to fences should go well. Theformismighty was an Irish PTP winner and a 15 length winner over hurdles at Market Rasen three starts ago. Finished a solid 4th of 14 on chase debut five weeks ago, beaten by less than six lengths and looks a real player down in class.

Yes Day has made the frame in five of eight starts to date, including a 3rd of 8 on chase debut at Warwick four weeks ago, despite coming off a 222 day absence. The trip is no issue, as he actually stays 3m and he should come on for the run. Awaythelad finished 211 over hurdles in December/January last season before a step up in class/weight stopped him progressing in the spring. He took 203 days off and reappeared to make a good chase debut at Lingfield three weeks ago, where he was 3rd of 11, beaten by just five lengths and the two horses from that race (6th & 8th) who have ran again both made the frame next time out.

Kaituna River completes my shortlist for this one and he's a former Irish PTP winner who has finished 6313 in his four hurdles runs to date, so he comes here in good nick for his chase debut. I'm not sure he has what it takes to win this race just yet, but if transferring his form to fences, could well. His jumping seemed sound in his PTP effort.

The two I like best here are (5) Awaythelad and (3) Theformismighty and any of the other three above could quite well make the frame, so I'll take a chance with (7) Kaituna River for some potential value.

Leg 2 @ 12.45...This isn't a particularly strong race as you'll see by the quality of the ones that I expect to fare better than the others!

Neigh Botha's last seven runs started and ended with course and distance wins; over fences last June and over hurdles a week ago with results of 3P343 in between the two. He reverts back to fences off the same mark as last week's hurdles success and a similar run here should be more than plenty. Extraordinary Man is probably next best, despite a shocking 1 from 20 career record. That said, his sole win was over fences at Hereford eleven months after a 156-day absence. This year, he started again at Hereford and was a solid 4th of 12 after 287 days off and a wind op. His last five read 122P4 and he should come on for the run.

Abaya Du Mathan runs for the 89th time and has a reasonable 12.5% strike rate during his career, making the frame in 40 of 88 races (45.5%). he was a course and distance winner back in January, won at Warwick in April and comes here off the back of two fourth placed finishes. He's no spring chicken at the age of 12 but could be involved off the same mark as his last win. Bottom-weight Haafback is interesting after two poor bumpers (9th of 13 and 9th of 10) were followed by only one decent effort over hurdles (P9920) and after finishing last of eleven at Stratford on his fifth attempt, he went back to the shed for six months. He came back at Ludlow as a 2m chaser almost four weeks ago and pretty much made all to win at the first crack and the experience should benefit him.

Of the four, I think I'll omit the old boy Abaya Du Mathan and use (7) Haafback as my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (2) Extraordinary Man.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Berkenshtaaap won a 3m PTP in ireland and was then sold for £45,000 and now makes a yard debut for Olly Murphy, whosr bumper runners have a 21.6% win and 49.4% place strike rate and have 4 wins & 6 places from 21 here at Southwell. Clearisthewater needed three cracks at PTP racing to get off the mark and although not ripping trees up just yet and ran pretty well in a pair of UK bumpers so far. Yard is in good nick and the horse does at least have experience on his side.

Hestina Hill is an interesting debutant for the Skelton yard. He's by Kingston Hill and out of Hestina who won three times over hurdles for this yard and also twice over 1m4f on the Flat. The horse has already been gelded and has had a wind op. Star Artist is a half brother to Urban Artist, a 3-time winner at 1m3f/1m4f and in a couple of bumpers. he ran to a reasonable level on debut at Huntingdon nine months ago, finishing fourth and beaten by less than six lengths and should go well again here.

Of these four, I prefer (1) Berkenshtaaap and (7) Star Artist in equal measures, as will the market probably and I think that whilst Clearisthewater has the ability to outrun a big price (20/1 E/W might not be a bad side bet), (3) Hestina Hill might be a better Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Not a great deal to go off here of course, but I've spilt the field in two to concentrate on this half...

Inishnabro is a half-brother to a pair of winning hurdlers and won a PTP by 10 lengths in April. He didn't get near the winner on his hurdles debut three weeks ago, going down by 12L, but he ran well enough to be second of the twelve runners and the fourth placed horse won here over course and distance a week ago. Jordans Cross won his sole PTP by five lengths in March and only went down by half a length on his debut under Rules when a runner-up in a Chepstow bumper four weeks ago.

Law Of The Sea brings plenty of race experience to the table as a former Class 2 stayer on the Flat, but has yet to impress over hurdles. That said, his second effort (5th of 14) at Chepstow five weeks ago was better than his opening effort at Uttoxeter three weeks earlier and similar improvement gives him a chance of making the frame. Le Fauve is possibly/probably the one to beat here. Yet to win a race, but has finished in the frame on three of four starts over hurdles (3523), all in better races than this ie 3rd on debut in an Aintree Listed race, 5th at Grade 2 (Cheltenham) before a Class 3 second and a solid 3rd of 11 at Chepstow eight weeks ago despite coming off a break of 224 days.

Sun Art ran well enough on debut, finish in midfield of a 12-runner bumper at Worcester just seven weeks ago and followed that up by finishing third of twelve on hurdles debut at Market Rasen almost three weeks ago, a place and 1.5 lengths behind the re-opposing Inishnabro and a short head in front of last week's winner Achille Des Rocs. he's probably held by Inishnabro on that run, but shoud still put a decent effort in.

I could easily take all five, but my preferred approach would be (4) Jordans Cross & (6) Le Fauve against the field with (3) Inishnabro a marginal pick over the other two. As an aside, Inishnabro, Sun Art and Law Of The Sea should all be at very backable E/W odds as I expect the market will be keen on Jordans Cross & Le Fauve.

Leg 5 @ 2.15...If anything, the second division of the above race looks weaker than the first to the extent that I was looking at Ben Pauling's newcomer Bank On Frank as a likely placer based on the form of the field. Sadly, he doesn't run and my shortlist is down to two, possibly three runners...

I suspect this is a two-way battle between the top two on the card Daytime Dreaming and Disguisedlimit. Daytime Dreaming was second on his sole PTP outing nine months ago and made a promising start under Rules when 4th of 10 over hurdles at Uttoxeter just over six weeks ago. That looked a tougher/deeper race than this one and the winner, runner-up, third and fifth from that race have all re-appeared to make the frame since.

Disguisedlimit was a five length winner on his sole PTP effort back in April and finished third of ten over hurdles at Chepstow almost two months ago on his Rules debut. he looked unsettled that day and despite leading until 3 out faded out of contention to finish 44 lengths behind the winner. He'll wear a hood here to help settle him and the runner-up from that race has since won by 29 lengths at Market Rasen.

I'm just going to take this pair, but if you wanted a longshot, then Portcammon might (or might not!) be better than a price higher than 20/1 would suggest. He won a bumper on debut for Willie Mullins in August 2023 and was 4th in another a year later before finishing 7th of 20 on his hurdles debut. All of which seemed reasonable if slow progress, but that was his last run for the Mullins yard and he didn't shine on his debut for new handlers when beaten by 57 lengths at Newbury four weeks ago, so his price will reflect his lack of reliability, but this is a poor race, so who knows?

Leg 6 @ 2.45...Craven Bay is 1121 since moving to his current yard and stepping up to trips beyond 3m. he does carry a 7lb penalty for a win at Kempton eight days ago, but he seemed comfortable when scoring by the best part of four lengths so should be in the mix once more. Space Voyage finished 14111 from June '22 to April '23 and then seemed to labour off higher marks up in class before a drop to a rating of 117 saw her win by a neck at Perth in April. She was then 5th of 14 at Aintree before a six month break. Her return just over three weeks ago was a 7.5 length defeat in mid-field of a 12-runner Wincanton contest, but she is now back on her last winning mark.

Toonagh Warrior is a consistent placer over hurdles, making the frame in 6 of 10 starts, including last time out, when beaten here at Southwell over a trip half a mile shorter than today. He's never been asked to go beyond 2m4½f but always gives it his all, rarely runs a bad race and finished 3212 in the last quarter of 2023, so goes well at this time of year. Form horse Mr Hope Street is another tackling 3m+ for the first time, but his form over 2m4f/2m5f in his last three outings reads 112 and was only denied a hat-trick at Carlisle last time out by half a length as he came back from a five month break. Those last three runs were much better than his 2m/2m1f form (457508) and he may well be that another step up in trip is the way forward.

Tzarmix completes my shortlist today and he's one of those consistent but not quite there types. I don't think he's that far away from putting some good runs together and he did win and place at 2m4f/2m5½f in the spring of 2023 before seeming to lose his way in handicaps off marks around 115/116, but he did go well last time out after dropping to a mark of 107 and was a solid 3rd of 11 at Wetherby seven weeks ago. More improvement is needed off that same mark here, but he does get weight from most of the field.

And I think I'll have (1) Craven Bay & (6) Mr Hope Street as my two main picks from this one with with consistent perma-placer (3) Toonagh Warrior the backup plan.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (5) Awaythelad, (3) Theformismighty & (7) Kaituna River

Leg 2: (1) Neigh Botha. (2) Extraordinary Man & (7) Haafback

Leg 3: (1) Berkenshtaaap, (7) Star Artist & (3) Hestina Hill

Leg 4: (4) Jordans Cross, (6) Le Fauve & (3) Inishnabro

Leg 5: (2) Daytime Dreaming & (3) Disguisedlimit

Leg 6: (1) Craven Bay, (6) Mr Hope Street & (3) Toonagh Warrior

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24