Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24

Monday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Newcastle & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've got soft ground (of course!) at both NH venues, but with Musselburgh having some really small fields, let's head to not-so-leafy Lingfield for these six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...This really should be all about Willie Mullins' (1) Full Confession, an Irish PTP winner, who easily landed a Fairyhouse bumper on his debut under Rules four weeks ago. He carries a penalty for that win, but it's hard to see him not winning. Next best might well be debutant (5) Wild Goose who is a half-brother to Black Poppy who has 4 wins and 5 places from 15 over hurdles and won a Class 1 handicap at Haydock last year. The yard has a strike rate of over 18% in bumpers since 2017 with over 42% of those runners making the frame.

(6) Celtic Queen showed some promise when a runner-up on debut in a Hereford bumper four weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length at 18/1 and she's sure to be much shorter here with that run under her belt. It probably wasn't the strongest of races, but you can only compete with what's put in with you and the experience would have been vital.

You could just put Full Confession on your tickets here and be done with it, but I'll still take the other two as back-ups, just in case!

Leg 2 @ 1.00...With the bottom three on the card all running from outside of the handicap, I'm going to focus on the top five...

Mumbles had been running consistently well over hurdles for some time (3421214), mainly on soft and heavy ground, before taking a 224-day break. He returned to action at Ffos Las four weeks ago and was a decent runner-up on his chase debut and should improve for that run. Iskar d'Airy got off the mark at the tenth time of asking last time out, so he knows how to win, but hasn't raced since that win 610 days ago, makes a chasing debut today and is unproven on soft ground.

John W Creasy is a twelve-race maiden after one bumper run, eight hurdle races and three chases. He seemed to have got the hang of chasing when a reasonable 5th of 12 at Exeter in October, but was pulled up last time out. Maybe the huge drop in trip will help today? Rock On Tommy makes a third appearance over fences, more than 2yrs 4 months since his last one, but comes here off the back of a trio of good efforts over hurdles (324) and goes off a mark 8lbs lower than his last chase run and 9lbs lower than his last hurdle win.

Robins Field has yet to win after 18 (6 x hrd, 12 x chs) outings, but has been the runner-up in four of his six outings in 2024, including last time out at Cartmel on soft ground and maybe he's just destined to always be the bridesmaid?

(1) Mumbles makes most appeal to me here today with persistent runner-up (5) Robins Field probably likely to reprise that role. (4) Rock On Tommy might be the 'best of the rest'.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Only six go to post now for this, but it still looks pretty competitive with the likely winner for me being (1) Diva Luna who makes a hurdling debut after a pair of soft ground bumper wins. She won a Listed event at Market Rasen on debut in February and followed that up with a Grade 2 at the Aintree Festival and I'm confident that her yard will have schooled her well.

(4) Jasmine d'Airy won a Tipperary bumper by six lengths on debut back in May and subsequently changed hands for £120,000. That kind of money doesn't guarantee success, but it shows she's highly rated. (5) Metkayina was fourth behind Diva Luna in that Aintree bumper above, having won at Ludlow on her previous outing. She's had the benefit of both a recent run and a hurdles debut, when second of six here at Lingfield over 2m3½f, a length and a quarter behind It's Hard To Know, who has won again since.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Northern Air who has finished as runner-up in both races over hurdles so far and although beaten by nine lengths at Ayr last time out should still go well here.

This, however, should be all about (1) Diva Luna and I'd expect her to win comfortably here with (5) Metkayina the biggest challenge. If you're taking three from this one, then I suspect that (4) Jasmine D'Airy might just have too much for Northern Air.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...(2) Kado De Joie has won two of his last five including last time out at Fontwell coming off a six month break and whilst he's up 5lbs for that win, he should come on for having had the run. (3) Peking Opera won a Listed race on the Flat and also competed Groups 1, 2 & 3 in that sphere, so he shouldn't lack for speed between the flights here. he did win over hurdles at Sandown in February before reverting back to the Flat for the summer and possibly needed a 'sighter' back over hurdles last time out when furth back at Sandown a month ago.

(4) Golden Maverick never really got involved last time out finishing 12th of 15 at Cheltenham coming back from a six month break, but prior to that break, had finished in the frame in all five starts (23112) over hurdles and it's not inconceivable that he goes better today. he was also useful on the Flat, making the frame in 7 of 11, winning four times and he handles soft ground well enough, as does bottom weight (8) Followango whose hurdles form to date consists of five races on soft or heavy ground with results of 32232 after winning a heavy ground bumper by 19 lengths on debut at Ffos Las 13 months ago. She unseated her rider last time out at Ffos Las, but that was her chase debut on quicker ground and came after six months off track, so we should see a different version of her here.

I can make a case for all four, but I'm only takin three and I think I'll omit Peking Opera.

Leg 5 @ 2.30...When I took a cursory look last night, only three of the twelve runners really interested and sadly my preferred option (Pedley Wood) was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with two from eleven and they are...

(2) Icaque de l'Isle has surprisingly yet to get off the mark after ten attempts, but hasn't been running badly and has been in the first three home on five occasions (which is all we need here today!) He's down in class here, jockey Harry Bannister is riding well and the horse is used to soft ground. He should be in the first three home, as will hopefully be (3) Shot Boii who has had a reasonable 2024 over fences finishing 12342P83. Of that run, he was pulled up at Southwell in April on his sixth start in less than 16 weeks, so he might have already been done for the season. He was eighth of thirteen at Ffos Las after a 201-day absence and was then back to his usual level last time out. He's two from five here at Lingfield, gets the trip and the going and also drops in class.

In the absence of my preferred runner, I'm adding (8) Twilight Glory to the ticket builder, after he ran really well to finish third of ten at Warwick recently coming off a break of 195 days and he did win twice on heavy ground last season.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And I've also lost my number one pick (King William Rufus) for the finale, which will hopefully hand the race to (2) Dominic's Fault who was unlucky to go down by just a short-head over 2m4f at Carlisle last time out, having not raced for 254 days. He was third here over course and distance in February and won on heavy ground at Leicester and with the benefit of a recent run allied to a drop back in trip, he should be on the premises again today.

The big challenge is expected to come from (9) Star Of Affinity who came back from his own summer break to win over 2m1f at Exeter in October and he followed that up with a two length defeat as a runner-up at Ascot last time out. He was headed before the last that day over 2m3½f and he too should improve for the drop back in trip.

It really should be a two-horse affair here and I'm going to leave it as that.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Full Confession, (5) Wild Goose & (6) Celtic Queen

Leg 2: (1) Mumbles, (5) Robins Field & (4) Rock On Tommy

Leg 3: (1) Diva Luna, (5) Metkayina & (4) Jasmine D'Airy

Leg 4: (2) Kado De Joie, (4) Golden Maverick & (8) Followango

Leg 5: (2) Icaque de l'Isle, (3) Shot Boii & (8) Twilight Glory

Leg 6: (2) Dominic's Fault & (9) Star Of Affinity

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24