Tuesday's racing comes from Catterick, Newcastle & Wincanton.
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Today's pools
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...
We've not played the A/W for a while and the biggest guaranteed pot is to be found at Newcastle, where the tapeta is deemed as standard for our six races which kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 3.23...Sol Cayo has barely raced since winning over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton more than two years ago, but was second here over course and distance last time out (October) on his only A/W outing since that win and is still 7lbs lower than the win. Orange N Blue makes just a sixth career start today and runs for the first time since the end of January. He finished third in each of his last two outings, so if race-fit could be involved here dropping back 2f.
Orbital, on the other hand, has been busier, running ten times in the last eight months, winning two of eight on the A/W and finishing 12252 in his last five, going down by just a neck over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Life On The Rocks completes my shortlist in the hops that he finally transfers some of this summer's turf form to the A/W. From mid-May onwards he finished 1114331 on turf, but hasn't got close in three A/W outings since, but did finish third of eleven here over course and distance in April.
Life On The Rocks seems the likely to make the frame of those four and I'll take the other three forward ie (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital
Leg 2 @ 3.55...Wee Fat Mac won this race last year off the same mark (63) as today and despite being winless in 16 races since, he has raced pretty well in defeat, making the frame ten times and is probably the one to beat in a modest-looking contest. Show Me Show Me is also a former course and distance winner, who wasn't beaten by far in a tight C&D contest here five days ago just getting edged out late on off today's mark of 59. Oriental Prince wears a hood for the first time today after going off too quickly in a six length defeat over 6f here eleven days ago. He had gone down by just three quarters of a length over that 6f trip here on his previous run and that's the level he needs to get back to as he drops in trip.
Henery Hawk has failed to finish in the first three home in any of twelve starts since winning back to back races over this track/trip in February. Sadly for him, that moved his mark from 54 to 63 and then to 68, which was too much for him. If ready for a return to the A/W for the first time since July, he could be dangerously weighted off a mark of just 50. Stablemate Pockley is also on a barren run of 14 races outside of the first three home since a narrow runner-up defeat over 6f here in March, but ran pretty well here last time out going down by just a length and a half despite only managing to be fifth of twelve runners. He receives weight all round, but needs to start better.
All things considered, it's (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk for me.
Leg 3 @ 4.30...Volenti has finished 32121 in his last five, all here at Newcastle with the last three all over today's course and distance. His mark only moved up 5lbs during that sequence, but he'll need to work a bit harder today up another 5lbs. Odd Socks Havana hasn't quite got back to the form he showed earlier in the year when finishing 36234112 here over course and distance, but he's now 3lbs lower than that last runner-up finish from May and just 2lbs higher than his last win and can call upon the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser for further help with the weight.
Commander Crouch probably wasn't suited by a turgid 7f race here six weeks ago when making a debut for his new handler. There was no pace around that day and he was outpaced in the sprint tot he line. They should go off quicker here today and the extra furlong should also help. Jujubella is a lightly -raced (six starts) 3yo filly, whose two UK/yard outings to date have seen her finish 4th of 10 and 3rd of 12 over this course and distance, the latest being a 4.5 length defeat behind the above-mentioned Volenti, but she's 5lbs better off here and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, so could/should get closer if all goes to plan
Martin's Brig is another out of form sort with good past efforts, having made the frame in 7 of 16 over C&D, winning twice, the last of which was in late June six races ago off a mark of 53, before a subsequent 3rd of 13 a month later off 56, so today's mark of 50 could be a dangerous career-low.
Plenty with chances here, but it's (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig for me.
Leg 4 @ 5.00...This really should be all about Longhaired General, assuming he takes to the A/W surface. That said is yard & rider are both in good nick and they've a good record together at this venue. The horse has made the frame in each of his last three (223) on turf, including an excellent run in a Class 3 handicap at Thirsk two starts ago.
The challenge(s), if any are likely to come from Lechuga Lad, Steps In Time and/or Sorontar, I think. Lechuga Lad's yard are in good form and this race debutant comes from a dam who won over two miles and is a half-sister to Wickwing who has won over 10/11f in Italy.
Steps In Time's form of making the frame in both career starts so far could be a little misleading. Yes, he was ahead of six runners when 3rd of 9 over 1m½f at Wolverhampton earlier this month, but he was well beaten by nine lengths, so would need more here. Sorontar has been raised a pound since his last run, but he was only beaten by three quarters of a length as a runner-up at Wolverhampton last time out, staying on well over 1m½f and although this is a step up in class, it doesn't look a strong race.
(4) Longhaired General would be the one to go with here, but I'll also take (2) Steps In Time and (5) Sorontar as backups
Leg 5 @ 5.30...Jkr Cobbler is 211 in his last three outings, all here over class, course and distance in the last eight weeks. This will be tougher off 3lbs higher but he's in with a shout of the hat-trick, for sure. Panama City has made the frame in six of ten starts on the A/W, winning four times, including here at Newcastle over a mile a fortnight ago on his last run. He had to dig deep that day, so the drop back to 7f could help as he's also up 3lbs.
Pallas Lord is no mug, but has struggled since returning to action in October after almost six months off. His mark has dropped of course as a result as hee sekks to recapture the form that saw him finish 212111421 here at Newcastle in the first three months of the year. Rebeccas Girl was a comfortable winner when 3 lengths clear of the field over course and distance 11 days ago. She was up 5lbs and a furlong back here just three days later and was a runner-up headed very late on. Back down in trip, she's probably the one to beat here.
And from those, it's (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl for me.
Leg 6 @ 6.00...Dark Kestrel has made the frame in 7 of 15 on the A/W, but was slow away at Chelmsford last time out, which is usually fatal to one's chances and he ended up 4th of 8. Prior to that, he had finished 4313 in four runs on tapeta with a course and distance win here in late October, so he's not out of this. El Bufalo produced his best effort to date when beaten by less than a length at Chelmsford 12 days ago, only being headed in the closing stages. He did also win a 5f maiden on the tapeta at Wolverhampton this time last year.
Paddy's Day is one of those 'nearly' horses who always seem to run their best race, but don't quite do enough to win. He has made the frame in six of twelve on the A/W, but hasn't won any of 13 Flat/AW races since a course and distance win here over 13 months ago. That said, his A/W form since that win reads 42232, so you know he's going to be in the mix again even if he is up another 2lbs for not winning!
Mondammej won over 5f in a Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton on 23rd November 2021 off a mark of 97 and subsequently lost 40 races on the bounce, making the frame just seven times! He had a wind op recently and then returned to the winner's enclosure for the first time in exactly three years when winning here over course and distance on the 23rd November off a mark of 68 and has since won again over course and distance off 70 and seeks a 24-day hat-trick today. The Ridler is winless in sixteen races, so not quite at Mondammej levels just yet and he was a runner-up here over 6f last time out, headed late on and should benefit from a drop in trip.
I can see (6) Mondammej competing the hat-trick here today, but I'm also taking (1) Dark Kestrel and (3) Paddy's Day to complete my tickets.
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital
Leg 2: (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk
Leg 3: (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig
Leg 4: (2) Steps In Time, (4) Longhaired General & (5) Sorontar
Leg 5: (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl
Leg 6: (1) Dark Kestrel, (3) Paddy's Day & (6) Mondammej
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck, everyone!
Chris
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