Tix Picks, Monday 16/12/24

Monday's racing comes from Naas, Plumpton, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Wolverhampton...

...and I'll take a look at Plumpton where the going is expected to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Epic West was an easy 7.5 length winner on debut at Carlisle four weeks ago on soft ground and should go well again dropped back slightly in trip for a yard with a 31% win and 59% place strike rate with runners on their second start. Touquet has won over course and distance and is two from four so far with a 1 from 2 record in bumpers and also the same over hurdles after winning first time out in each sphere. Each time, though, a step up to Class 2 was too much and he's back down in class today with his yard having a good record here (21 wins and 9 further places from 59 over the last five years)

Andashan makes a hurdling debut here and has a win and a place from two bumpers; winning a Class 4 on debut and then an excellent third of twenty at Class 2 last time out. Down in class today and his yard won this race last year. Westerton completes my shortlist even though he has yet to transfer his Flat ability over to hurdles. He made the frame in six of twelve on the Flat, winning at Class 2. He handles soft ground well, but just hasn't quite made it over hurdles yet. He was, however, only beaten by less than five lengths on his last effort and wears blinkers today.

I do think that Westerton has more to offer, but he's not at the level of the other three, who I'll be putting on the ticket builder ie (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...Just five go to post and I'm not keen about Hugo's New Horse, so I'll pick from four...

Dubrovnik Harry last tackled a fence in November 2022 when 3rd of 9 at Exeter, beaten by 13 lengths as a 7/4 fav. Hasn't raced anywhere since early February either, but was a good 3rd of 14 in a Class 1 handicap hurdle. Alien Storm has only won twice in seventeen starts, but both wins have come here at Plumpton in a 2m hurdle (Oct '22) and a 2m1f chase in September of this year. Has finished third in both starts since that last win and is at least race-ready.

D'Jo Dela Barriere only won one of six PTP races, but those races have given him jumping experience and he was 4th of 10 on chase debut back in May and comes here off the back of a facile 13 length success in a Novice Hurdle at Hereford when making all five weeks ago. This is tougher, but he's clearly fit. Diplomatic Ash unseated his rider on chase debut at Kempton after being badly hampered at just the second fence, but ran creditably next/last time out when 4th of 11, beaten by 8 lengths at Lingfield five weeks ago. There's scope for improvement, I think, but he's going to need it to win this one.

It's (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm for me in this one.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...This looks a weak affair and only three horses spark any interest for me...

(1) Bold Recruit is no stranger to receiving place money, after finishing as runner-up in all three starts under Rules having also finished third and second in a pair of PTP races earlier this year. (4) Ken Roy has also run to a fairly consistent level in three starts so far, finishing third in a pair of Class 4 bumpers, before a 7-length defeat at Class 3 on hurdles debut last month. he's down in class here and his yard have a good record at this venue.

Both of the above runners are in good nick right now, but (3) Jail No Bail hasn't been seen for a week shy of thirteen months, so we'll have to take his fitness on trust (mind you, the Honeyball string are usually well tuned). He was a solid third of none at Wincanton on soft ground when last seen and gets both this trip and also soft ground.

I might as well take all three here.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Lady Balko won last time out, scoring by over six lengths at this track/trip eased down after making all on just her second crack at fences. Her hurdling form in 2024 read 211122 before the switch to fences and a 9lb rise might not stop her here. Northern Poet has won three of eight over fences, having completed a hat-trick in the spring of 2023. More 'recently' he was a solid 5th of 20 at Cheltenham (Class 3) in April and then second of four here over course and distance behind Copperhead, who has since finished 1122, all at Class 2, which bodes well and he ahs ahd wind surgery during his layoff.

Village Master had a modest three race hurdles 'career' last season finishing 577 to acquire/earn a handicap rating of just 78 prior to a switch to fences, where he went on to win his first five on the bounce in a nine-week spell, closing the season out with a win at Fontwell off a mark of 110! He never got going at all at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance, but should come on for the run. Sadler's Bay returned form a ten month break to finish a decent third of ten on soft ground, even though the trip was probably too short for him. That took his run of chase results to 42233 and although I don't expect him to win here, he will win a chase somewhere with that level of consistency.

(1) Lady Balko should be winning this ahead of (4) Village Master with little to choose between my other pair.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...Macari was disappointing over course and distance here a fortnight ago, only managing 5th of 11, 24 lengths off the winner, which was a surprise after finishing second of seven over this same track/trip four weeks earlier, going down by only half a length after a mistake at the last cost him the race. Prior to those races, he'd had a good summer (23221) in Flat handicaps, so he should be quick between hurdles and takes a drop in class here. Tara Iti has raced twice since a five month summer break and has been the runner-up in both (2m sellers). She has only been beaten by 1.25 and 4.5 lengths respectively, but the trip seemed too sharp and the extra 5f could help here.

Whynotnowroy ended last season with handicap hurdle results reading 2431, culminating in a 6.5 length win over 2m6f at Fontwell in early May ahead of a break of more than six lengths. He re-emerged to finish second of ten over that same Fontwell track/trip and should come on for the run off the same mark. Mutley Crew was game when getting off the mark on his handicap debut over 2m3½f on soft ground at Fontwell in October, when he had to dig deep to pull away by three lengths in the closing half furlong. The extra furlong and a half should help here, but he is up 6lbs for that win.

I can/could make a case for all four, but Tara Iti makes less appeal than the other three, so I'll take (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...Just six are set to run in our finale and I think the top half of the card is where it's at...

(1) Hidalgo Des Bordes has finished 173 over fences so far and ran creditably up in trip to this distance last time out and has been eased a pound. Hasn't raced for 204 days, though, during which time he has had a wind operation.

(2) I Shut That d'Or was a course and distance winner here in early November and followed that up by finishing as a half-length runner-up at Wincanton last time out having conceded 24lbs to the winner.

(3) Mutual Respect has been running consistently well since the summer of 2023, finishing 1238112 with that 8th of 13 at Worcester excusable in September this year, as it came off a 348-day break. He runs off the same mark as his last run, which is only 2lbs higher than his win two starts ago and the only question about him is whether he handles the step up from 2m1½f to 2m4f.

I'll be taking all three from this one, though.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan

Leg 2: (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm

Leg 3: (1) Bold Recruit, (3) Jail No Bail & (4) Ken Roy

Leg 4: (1) Lady Balko & (4) Village Master

Leg 5: (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew

Leg 6: (1) Hidalgo Des Bordes, (2) I Shut That d'Or & (3) Mutual Respect

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24