Tix Picks, Monday 28/10/24
Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Leicester, Newcastle, Redcar & Southwell.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
So let's follow the money and head to Newcastle, where the Tapeta is expected to ride standard to slow for our races that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 3.35, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...
Bulldog Spirit and Unique Spirit both finished as runners-up on their last outings with the former winning three starts ago and the latter finishing 3212 in his last four (all over course and distance) and as one of just two (along with bottom weight Catalan King) 3 yr olds in the race gets a very useful 8lbs weight allowance here. Aside from these two, the rest of the field are winless in their last six starts although Weddell Sea has been a runner-up in two of his last three and three of his last five. Zephlyn could also go well here, having finished 2444 in his last four, all at 2m-2m2f and not beaten by more than 3.5 lengths in any of them and his record over course and distance reads 2312.
Bulldog Spirit and Zephlyn also both drop in class here, whilst Weddell Sea, Zephlyn and Unique Spirit seem best suited by conditions...
Over a trip of 2m+, no runner in a 9-horse field should be losing the race because of the draw, but the pace angle is a different matter and with those racing further back in the pack faring best here over this course and distance, that's a positive for..
A quick look back at who I've mentioned positively above brings me to select (3) Weddell Sea, (6) Zephlyn & (7) Unique Spirit with Bulldog Spirit possibly unlucky to miss out.
Leg 2 @ 4.10, a 6-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...
Only six go to post here and the early market suggests that only Percy Willis is out of the running on his return from a 121-day absence, even if he did win here over course and distance seven starts and seven months ago.
Of the others, Princess Niyla was a runner-up ten days ago, Molinari has made the frame in two of his last three, Laudable has been running well for the last three months (31112422) albeit mainly at Class 6 and bottom weight Annandale won well at Ayr 18 days ago beating the re-opposing Laudable by a length and a half.
Laudable is a pound better off today and 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser has some good numbers...
The race seems to lack any real pace, so it might be left to Princess Niyla to set the tempo, which could make her a target here...
...but if it is falsely run, that will suit the 'finishers' Molinari and Annandale, so I'm taking the bottom half of the card, (4) Molinari, (5) Laudable & (6) Annandale here.
Leg 3 @ 4.40, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...
This looks like a two-horse race here between Kisdon Force and Space Trooper with the former the most obvious pick. He was third of nine on debut 18 days ago and then a runner-up beaten by just a head over course and distance 10 days ago. Space Trooper was third of seven at Chelmsford on debut in mid-September, but failed to land a blow at Windsor next/last time out a fortnight ago. That said, he was racing over 5f on heavy ground, finishing last of three beaten by just over two lengths. We should see more of him back up in trip and away from the mud, but he'd be second pick here.
Rajawail has made the frame just once in eight starts and was 7th of 8 here at Newcastle over a mile last time out. She was 17.5 lengths off the pace and that was on the 4th January; this will be just her second outing in over 13 months, so out of form and rusty isn't an attractive proposition, whilst Three Sixty makes just her third career start, having been 9th of 11 over 6f at Redcar fourteen months ago and then last home of eight tailed off here over course and distance 10 days ago.
(1) Kisdon Force should be enough here, but we'll take (2) Space Trooper as back-up, just in case.
Leg 4 @ 5.15, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...
Daughter of Frankel, Maissara, drops in class for her handicap bow after consistent finishes of 443 and was only beaten by a length on her A/W debut last time out, so might have been underestimated off an opening mark of 73. Ziggy's Ariel and Chuti Manika have both already won races (both scored three races ago) and the latter drops in trip here. Fallen Soldier was a runner-up at Thirsk six weeks ago, but he's up in class today.
Our place pace/draw heat map suggests these runners might go well...
...with low-drawn Chuti Manika likely to get first run, pursued by the four widest drawn runners. To be honest, (2) Maissara aside, this group look quite evenly matched, so I'll take (3) Chuti Manika on pace/draw and the fact he has won a race as an alternative. Elsewhere, (4) Cracking Man is interesting, he shows well on pace/draw above, drops three classes for his second handicap run, has been gelded since that handicap debut and has some stats to back him up...
...so he completes my trio of picks.
Leg 5 @ 5.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
Water of Leith looks the form horse here, finishing 1931 in his last four, although he is up 4lbs for that win at Ayr almost six weeks ago. Dark Kestrel was third at Southwell recently and A Girl Named Ivy won at Pontefract over 6f in August and at Ayr in May off the back of an 11-month break.
Stat-wise, Water of Leith's yard do well with LTO winners too...
...whilst Instant Expert highlights Dark Kestrel (trip) and the bottom half of the card generally...
Early pace is often the key here over 5f at Newcastle, as it is at most tracks, if truth be told and it looks like the tempo is likely to be set by Herakles and A Girl Named Ivy
...and Herakles is a former course and distance winner off just 2lbs lower than today's mark and of the two front-runners, he's probably a safer bet as A Girl Named Ivy has no previous Tapeta experience, so (9) Herakles joins in-form (5) Water of Leith on my ticket builder and I think I'll supplement them with (3) Dark Kestrel who runs off the same mark as his last win and has been eased a pound from his third place finish last time out.
Leg 6 @ 6.15, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
A pretty open-looking sprint is our final race here and a few come to this one in good nick. Spirit of Applause has finished 1032 in his last four and was only caught late on over 6f at Southwell last time, going down by a neck, so the drop in trip might help. Leodis Dream was a course and distance winner by a length and a half 25 days ago and both the 3rd and 6th placed runners have won since, whilst the 4th placed horse ahs made the frame. Zuffolo has won two of his last four, including LTO at Redcar six weeks ago, whilst Gustav Graves is turned back out just a week after finishing third of nine over this trip at Wolverhampton and he's probably the stand-out under today's conditions...
Cotai Vision has done well over this trip and her 'recent' form reads 22227, but she hasn't raced since early August and the last of those runner-up finishes was nine months ago, so there's a chance that she could tire before the line today, especially as she's likely to try and burst out early...
...leaving her very susceptible to being rushed out of it by Leodis Dream and Zuffolo, who both featured in my 'form' preview earlier. I can't ignore Gustav Graves' two-year record under these conditions and Spirit of Applause probably brings the best form to the table, so if we're still in with 'live' tickets at this point, I'm not missing out by omitting the wrong one, so I'll take all four ie (1) Spirit Applause, (5) Leodis Dream, (7) Zuffolo & (8) Gustav Graves in a safety-first approach here.
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (3) Weddell Sea, (6) Zephlyn & (7) Unique Spirit
Leg 2: (4) Molinari, (5) Laudable & (6) Annandale
Leg 3: (1) Kisdon Force & (2) Space Trooper
Leg 4: (2) Maissara, (3) Chuti Manika & (4) Cracking Man
Leg 5: (3) Dark Kestrel, (5) Water of Leith & (9) Herakles
Leg 6: (1) Spirit Applause, (5) Leodis Dream, (7) Zuffolo & (8) Gustav Graves
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Best of Luck, hoping your Monday is a happy one!
Chris
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