The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 4.40 Lingfield
- 5.40 Windsor
- 5.48 Roscommon
- 6.18 Roscommon
Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...
Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.
His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...
In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...
...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.
As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...
.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...
...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...
If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...
...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.
Summary
Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.
Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.
If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!
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