The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
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- 2.05 Cork
- 2.45 Lingfield
- 4.00 Ripon
- 5.50 Carlisle
...where the 'best' of the three UK races (on paper, at least) would seem to be the 4.00 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...
INTERNATIONAL GIRL won her over course and distance three starts and two months ago and despite only finishing 7th of 14 last time out, was within 4 lengths of the winner at a higher grade than this and now drops in class.
TWELFTH KNIGHT was a course and distance winner here almost a year ago, but has failed to make the frame in any of his six outings since, including four here at Ripon, of which three were over today's trip, so he's now 6lbs below his last winning mark.
FORTAMOUR has only won five of his last thirty-nine races, but all five wins came over course and distance, the latest being in April and he has finished 4th of 13, 3rd of 9 and 3rd of 12 since but remains 5lbs higher than that last win and a step up in class here isn't likely to be helpful.
KINGS MERCHANT also steps up a class after a career-best effort to win last time out for a second win in three starts. He's now 3lbs higher than that win by a short-head at Doncaster 11 days ago, so might find this tougher up in class and weight on his Ripon debut.
MATTICE has won just once (at Redcar) in fourteen attempts at 6f, but has won here at Ripon over 5f as recently as may this year. Has had mixed results since then (4th of 21, 14th of 16, 4th of 13, 11th of 18 and 7th of 11) so a good run is only as likely as a poor one from this inconsistent runner.
BAY BREEZE is four from ten over course and distance and won this race last year off a mark some 11lbs higher than today. He was a decent 4th of 21 at York last time out and he has been eased by 1lb for his return to his favoured track and trip. Having not scored since last year's renewal, he'd not be winning out of turn, although he is back up in class today.
Twelfth Knight is probably/possibly the marginal pick of the pack when it comes to the 2yr win records on Instant Expert, but it's a fairly low bar that has been set...
...Bay Breeze would probably prefer a bot more cut in the ground whilst Fortamour and Mattice have both struggled to win at this trip of late, but both have reasonable enough place stats...
...to suggest they might get involved. These place stats don't really rule any of them out of the equation, although Twelfth Knight does seem to be a win or bust type at this trip and whilst their records at this trip have improved via the place stats, there are now doubts over Fortamour and Mattice in Class 3 company, especially with the former being rated 5lbs higher than his last win.
The draw stats for previous similar races suggest that those drawn lowest have fared best...
...so that could be good for Bay Breeze and Twelfth Knight over a track and trip that have certainly benefited those willing to set the pace...
...and when we combine draw with pace, we get the following heat map...
...which not only suggests that the pace of the race has more bearing on the result than the draw does (which stands to reason over a straight 6f), it also says that Bay Breeze could get away with not being the front-runner thanks to getting the plum draw, but Kings Merchant in stall 6 could do with getting a wriggle on! He'll probably race quite prominently, but looking at this field's most recent efforts, he might well find himself in mid-division behind the two lowest drawn runners...
Summary
I'd expect Kings Merchant to be very popular based on him winning two of his last three, but he only narrowly won last time out and is now up in class and weight. This means he might have to play second fiddle to course and dsitance specialist Bay Breeze, who'll have the rail to guide him and the benefit of receiving weight all round.
The bookies (as of 6pm Sunday) disagree with me, of course..
...but that 12/1 about Twelfth Knight is very interesting from a possible E/W angle.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
