Tix Picks, Saturday 21/12/24

Sorry, guys! No Tix Picks on Friday, as I spent much of the morning at the emergency dentist, but I'm back now with my final pre-Christmas tilt at the placepot.

Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Hereford, Newcastle, Thurles & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a massive £150,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

...and it would be just rude of me not try and take aim at the big pot at Ascot, where the going is set to be good to soft for our six races, kicking off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Thank You Ma'am is still a maiden after 11 starts, but is of interest for Tix Picks, as he has made the frame eight times, including being second home in six of ten over hurdles, which is what has happened in all three starts this season. I suspect he'll be on the premises once more today. Circuit Breaker won on bumper debut and also by 16 lengths on hurdles debut (over 2m5f) at Kempton. 1m7½f was probably far too sharp for him last time out and he's of more interest back up in trip and also down two classes for his hurdling handicap debut.

Just Lucky Sivola won on bumper debut just over a year and in two hurdle contests this season (both last month) was beaten by a neck on his first attempt and then won by a short head next/last time out. An opening mark of 113 for his handicap debut gives him a great chance here. Golden Ambition is in the process of having a good season over hurdles. He was second of ten on his seasonal reappearance and in two runs since, he has won by five lengths over 2m6½f on soft ground and by four lengths over 2m7f on good ground. Trip/going should pose no threat here and another good run is on the cards.

Of these four, (3) Just Lucky Sivola is the one I like best and I'll also take (2) Circuit Breaker and (4) Golden Ambition as the backups.

Leg 2 @ 1.15...I narrowed it down to three last night starting with (in card order!) (4) Kotmask whose chase form this year reads 11F3432 and both runs this season after a six-month break have been here at Ascot finishing third in a Class 1 handicap and ten he was a Class 2 runner-up off today's mark, which puts him right in the mix, as do his past efforts on good to soft and soft ground.

(5) Prince Quali had finished 2211 in his four UK handicap chases (Jan to April this year) before an eight month break. Will have needed the run at Newbury three weeks ago, but still managed to finish third of ten and he should come on for that run. (6) Scarface is trained by Joe Tizzard who won this race last year and looks to have a good chance again this time with a runner who was second of nine in a similar contest at Newbury three weeks ago off today's mark. He has already won Class 1 and Class 2 handicap chases this year and is dangerous off a mark just 5lbs higher than that Class 1 success and he's 4lbs lower than when third of twelve in a Cheltenham Grade 2 contest back in April.

I'm just going to take all three here, but if pushed for a 1-2-3, I'd probably go Scarface - Kotmask - Prince Quali.

Leg 3 @ 1.50...Just four are set to run here and the one I like best would have to be (3) Iroko who is 1522 over fences after a good spell over hurdles where he was 3 from 3 in handicaps and third of fifteen in a Grade 1 race here at Ascot. As for his chasing results, he won at Class 3 on debut and ended last season with a a runner-up finish in another Grade 1 at Aintree (Mildmay). He made a seasonal bow at Haydock four weeks ago, beaten by just half a length at this class/trip and should come on for the run.

Of the other trio, (1) Fil Dor is probably the hardest to back even though he 'won' a Listed race last time out. Truth is that it was a 2-horse affair ran at a dawdle, so it offers no help to us and prior to that run, he had lost eight on the bounce and he's not helped at the weights here either.

(2) Jungle Boogie won his sole bumper by just over 3 lengths and his sole hurdle outing by 30 (yes, 30!) lengths before finishing 1416 over fences. He didn't see 3m2½f when 6th of 11 in the Gr 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last run in March, but had won a Grade 3 at Tramore on New Year's Day. My main concern is that he has been off the track for some time (281 days) now, as has (4) James Du Berlais who was a faller at Punchestown when last seen almost eight months ago. He was, however, second of twenty-four in the Class 1 Topham handicap at the Aintree Festival and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

I wouldn't normally take three runners from a four horse contest, but I'm struggling to split Jungle Boogie and James du Berlais as my backup to Fil Dor, so I'll just take both in a safety first approach.

Leg 4 @ 2.25...Beauport tackles hurdles for the first time since April 2022 when a decent fourth of twenty-one in a Grade 3 at Aintree which followed results of 31312221. He hasn't been as consistent over fences, but has won at Class 2, Class 1 and a Listed race and won by 31 lengths last time out. At what is likely to be a big price, he might be an E/W outsider to consider, as he stays all day.

Strong Leader has made the frame in 9 of 13 starts to date and has won 6 times, including last season's Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle and then a Grade 2 at Newbury next/last time out three weeks ago despite coming off a break of 230 days. Going and trip are no concern here and he'd be my likely winner. The Wallpark is interesting today at the highest level he has raced at, but he comes here off the back of four straight wins, including a Listed race at Galway in August. This will be tougher for him, but you can't knock his form and he did beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner (Beacon Edge) by over nine lengths last time out.

Kateira was almost five lengths behind Beacon Edge in that Grade 2 race (at Wetherby) above, so I suppose that puts her behind The Wallpark here, but she herself has won two of her last three at Class 1 and then a Listed race most recently and with a 70% hurdling place strike rate (5 wins and 2 places from 10), she's an ideal placepot horse and probably a good E/W option to boot.

(7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark & (10) Kateira would by my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...Trelawne won over 2m7½f at Uttoxeter on his last hurdles run (March '23) and then over 2m4f at Carlisle on chase debut 232 days later. Since then he has been a grade 2 runner-up at Wetherby in January and won a 2m5½f handicap at Haydock four weeks ago after a break of 256 days. He likes this softer ground and should come on for his recent run.

Victtorino is only 1lb higher than when winning this race last year and comes here off the back of a good run on his season opener at Newbury. He hasn't been on a track for nine months but was a good 3rd of 13 in a 3m2f Class 1 handicap worth £142k to the winner and he'd be entitled to strip fitter today. Heloy Delabarriere is very interesting on his UK debut despite having gone twelve races without a win, but he has been second or third in seven of them, including two runs at Gr 3 and one at Gr 1 in his last three outings. if he runs to those levels here, he's definitely one to consider, although I'd have liked him to have had a prior UK run.

The Changing Man completes my shortlist of the back of a 1.25 length defeat as a runner-up of thirteen in a 2m7½f Class 1 handicap chase at Newcastle three weeks ago. The bare result and small margin of defeat speak for themselves, but if you consider that the third-placed horse was a further 16 lengths back, you see how well he ran and he'd be a contender here.

I'm going to omit the French raider, as I'd like to see him in the UK and over fences before committing, so I'll take (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man here.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...Be Aware is 12222 in his short career (all over hurdles) so far. he ended last season with a half length defeat in a 20-runner Class 2 handicap at Sandown and was then the runner-up in the 15-runner Class 1 Greatwood handicap at Cheltenham next/last time out after 204 days off the track, but again was only half a length off the winner. Dysart Enos was third in the Greatwood, three lengths behind Be Aware, despite going off as the 85/40 favourite. That defeat, as creditable as it was, was the the first time she'd been beaten after six straight wins to start her career and she's a Listed & Grade 2 winner in bumpers. She's 3lbs better off with be Aware here too.

Kabral Du Mathan steps up in class here, but has won both starts to date, landing a Class 2 contest in mid-January and then a Class 3 on handicap debut four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a ten month break. This might be too strong for him, but the potential is there, as it might well be for Black Hawk Eagle who won on Boxing Day last year and again in late January. His two runs this season have seen him 3rd of 10 at Ffos Las and 2nd of 5 at Huntingdon and whilst this the toughest race he'll have faced, he's in good heart.

Black Hawk Eagle is probably the weaker of the four shortlisted runners, so I'll be putting (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan onto my Tix ticket builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Circuit Breaker, (3) Just Lucky Sivola and (4) Golden Ambition

Leg 2: (4) Kotmask, (5) Prince Quali and (6) Scarface

Leg 3: (2) Jungle Boogie, (3) Iroko and (4) James Du Berlais

Leg 4: (7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark and (10) Kateira

Leg 5: (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man

Leg 6: (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone and I hope you all have a fantastic Christmas.
I'll see you on the other side!

Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24