Tix Picks, Thursday 19/12/24
Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Exeter, Ffos Las & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
What is Tix?
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...
...and we'll follow the money to Essex for six races on the standard polytrack at Chelmsford beginning with...
Leg 1 @ 4.10...Blue Lakota seems to have got the hang of things recently, finishing 221 in three handicap starts on the A/W so far after showing very little in three turf novice races. Was more than four lengths clear at Newcastle last time out and should be the one to beat here. Bank On Kent has also been solid in nurseries, although not to the same extent. He's now a 9-race maiden, but has finished in the first three in three of six handicaps and was less than two lengths down when third of seven over course and distance last time out.
Frankies Dream ran better than sixth of seven might suggest at Wolverhampton four weeks ago. Truth is that he was only beaten by a length and a half after a slow start in a tight race. He'll wear a hood today and that will hopefully help him get away a bit sharper. Mister Coco Fizz also ran in that same race at Wolverhampton and also started slowly, but managed to finish as runner-up, beaten by just a short head, just failing to reel the winner in. He started slowly again at Lingfield next/last time out and you just can't get away with that here at Chelmsford. He makes a yard debut in a first-time tongue tie today and hopefully the new handlers will have worked on his starts!
My 1-2 here would be (1) Blue Lakota and (2) Bank On Kent, to which I'll add (6) Mister Coco Fizz
Leg 2 @ 4.40...Preanka was withdrawn early this morning, reducing my over night shortlist to just three runners here. (6) Antalya was a solid third of fourteen on debut here five weeks ago, overcoming a wide draw (stall 12) to grab a place late on. Drawn better today and dropping down a furlong, she should be in the mix again. (10) Sixteen One was unlucky to be touched off by a head at Leicester on debut back in July and didn't seem to stay 7f out at Lingfield three months ago. She had enough about her for the market to deem her as favourite and she's a half-sister to Silent Move who is a 3-time Class 4 winner over 7f/1m.
(12) Sunlit Uplands was also poorly drawn on her only previous run to date when sent off at 8/1 from stall 11 of 11 over this course and distance seven weeks ago. She made steady progress after a shaky start and despite having to switch out late on, still managed to finish second just a short head behind the winner. A similar run probably wins this race today and she'd be my first choice, but I'm taking all three shortlisted runners from this one.
Leg 3 @ 5.10...Brightandbeautiful has been slowly improving and although she was fairly well beaten at Southwell last time out, she did manage to make the frame at 100/1 on a 10-runner contest. She'll go off much shorter here and could well place again today. Crest Of Light put his indifferent maiden/novice form behind him when finishing second of seven over a mile at Southwell on handicap debut nine days ago, going down by just three quarters of a length, having been headed inside the final furlong, so the drop back in trip might just help him go one better.
Thiscouldbefun is still a maiden after 8 starts, but her A/W form reads 363, all in handicaps, one on Tapeta, one on soft ground and then on polytrack last time out when beaten by just over two lengths in a 1m Class 4 handicap at Kempton. A drop in trip and class are positives here and she should be involved. Rotation is one of just two former winners in this field, having won a 6f seller at Leicester in July. His most recent effort same him finish 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton over 6f, doing his best work late on. He was only beaten by two lengths in the end and he'll probably relish the extra furlong here. Chuti Manika was third day and has raced into third again since.
(6) Crest Of Light is my first choice here and although I've little to separate the other three on my notes, I'll also take (2) Brightandbeautiful and (8) Rotation at the expense of Thiscouldbefun here.
Leg 4 @ 5.40...A decent size field (13 runners) for this, which is good to see, but it's surely a two-horse race between (1) Port Light and (2) Rajeko in card order?
Port Light won a Class 5, 1m maiden at Southwell on debut and was more comfortable than the margin of a neck might seem on paper. He carries a penalty for that win, of course and isn't ideally drawn in stall 13 of 13, but the manner of his debut run suggests there's more to come. Rajeko also won on debut, landing a Class 4 Novice race over 6f at Windsor back in June, also staying on to won by a neck. He has failed to make the frame in two starts since, but defeats at Group 2 & 3 aren't that relevant to his chances in a Class 4 Novice, but suffice to say he was only three lengths down in the Gr 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, half a length behind Aomori City who has since won a Group 2 and lost a Group 1 by less than four lengths.
Both of these go on my ticket, of course. Of the others, (4) English Lady is the sole winner, whilst (8) Ravens King has place form.
English Lady overcame a slow start to win a 14-runner maiden here at Chelmsford over 7f on debut five weeks ago and whilst this is a tougher race over further and carrying a penalty, she does at least have experience of winning a race. Ravens King is possibly slightly flattered by the bare result of third of ten runners in a Class 5, 1m maiden at Lingfield on his sole outing 16 days ago. The truth is that he was 11 lengths behind the first two home and only a similar distance clear of the horse back in 9th place. That said, you can only compete against what's in the race with you and he beat 7 of 9 opponents and the runner-up has been a Class 3 runner-up since.
Despite all that, I prefer English Lady as my backup.
Leg 5 @ 6.10...Kessaar Power wasn't great here over course and distance last time out, but had been a runner-up in each of his two previous outings (both here) and was a C&D winner in late October and if setting that last run aside, could well be the one to beat. Kitaro Kich is still a maiden after thirteen attempts, but produced what is probably his best effort to date when fourth of eleven here a fortnight ago. He was bumped early and got carried right in the closing stages but was staying on and could well get closer back up in trip.
Glencalvie won over course and distance back in February and also over this trip at Yarmouth in April and although not in the best of form of late, this looks a fairly poor race. so he's not out of it entirely. Reel Power made good progress in the summer of 2023, winning over a mile at Brighton before finishing second of twelve in a Windsor handicap. He was then off the track for 400 days and looked rusty on his return finishing last of ten back at Brighton over 1m2f in October, but was a very creditable third of ten over a mile at Kempton next/last time out, beaten by just a length and three quarters in a race where the horses placed 1st, 5th and 6th have all raced and won since.
My 1-2 here would be (1) Kessaar Power & (7) Reel Power and I think I marginally prefer (2) Kitaro Kich over Glencalvie. That said, the latter might well go off at a big price and with bookies paying four places here, he could still be a viable E/W bet.
Leg 6 @ 6.40...Bo Taifan won over C&D 7 starts/3 months ago and alonst took advantage of a falling mark when second of ten at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He was headed close to the line and was beaten by just half a length. Dubai Harbour went one better and won at Lingfield last time out, getting home by a neck holding on gamely over 1m2f. he's up 2lbs for that win, but will appreciate the drop back in trip.
Reverberation is the veteran of some 90 previous races but still looks in good nick at 9yo, coming here off the back of finishing 3rd of 13 over 1m2f at this track a week ago in a race he incidentally won last year and whilst not getting any younger, has a win and five places from nine starts this year. Rising Force was 3rd of 12 over C&D in mid-November and backed that up with a C&D win by more than two lengths last time out. He won pulling clear, so there was probably more to come, suggesting that a 5lb rise might not stop him.
Forever Proud completes my shortlist and she has made the frame in 7 of 15 this year so far, winning twice. She faded late on over 1m2f here a fortnight ago, but was 3rd of 11 on her last run over today's trip, whilst her last win came off a mark 2lbs higher than today.
Five to consider, but my 1-2-3 is going to be (6) Rising Force, (2) Dubai Harbour & (5) Reverberation.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Blue Lakota, (2) Bank On Kent & (6) Mister Coco Fizz
Leg 2: (6) Antalya, (10) Sixteen One & (12) Sunlit Uplands
Leg 3: (2) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Crest Of Light & (8) Rotation
Leg 4: (1) Port Light, (2) Rajeko & (4) English Lady
Leg 5: (1) Kessaar Power, (2) Kitaro Kich & (7) Reel Power
Leg 6: (2) Dubai Harbour, (5) Reverberation & (6) Rising Force
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck!
Chris
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