Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
1.00 Southwell
1.35 Southwell
2.15 Gowran Park
4.10 Wincanton
..from which I'm going to look at the 1.35 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard tapeta...
...which is likely, to all intents and purposes, to develop into a 4-horse race between the top four on the card.
They're the 'form' horses here with Brave Emperor winning his last three, Gincident his last two and Dagmar Run/Mohatu following up wins with runner-up finishes. That said, Naomi's Charm won two starts ago and Look back Smiling has made the frame in each of his last two, making Shot of Love the weakest on form.
All seven are up at least one class from LTO with Gincident, Shot Of Love and Look Back Smiling up two levels, whilst Shot of Love joins the top three on the card in having just a second handicap run. Mohatu and Gincident have both won over a mile, but Naomi's Charm is a course and distance winner.
Brave Emperor completed his hat-trick almost 11 weeks now, but the rest of the field have been away for less than three weeks.
The above says 1 course winner (C&D), 3 distance winners and Instant Expert says (overall) four winners on standard going and one at Class 3...
...and despite the lack of data, Brave Emperor would be the standout here with Naomi's Charm let down by her 1/4 on standard going. Mind you, she's 0/3 on std-slow! As on previous occasions that I've covered Southwell for this piece, we have to have the new track caveat ie we don't have masses of pace/draw data for the new surface, but we'll do our best with what we do have, starting with the draw...
There's not a lot in it from such a small sample size, but if pushed I'd probably want to be in stalls 3-6 to give me the best chance of making the frame, which only really benefits Dagmar Run from our 'favoured four', whilst the pace stats from those races, as is often the case here, tend to favour those racing furthest forward...
and when we look at how this field has raced recently...
...I'd guess that Naomi's Charm and Brave Emperor will set the pace with Mohatu having to pass runners to get involved.
Summary
There's not much to talk about from the above, sadly, but I think the best horses get their own way in these small fields and that it really becomes a test of who is best on the day. I stick with the assertion that the top four on the card get home first and based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, then the 3/1 2nd fav Brave Emperor would be the one to beat. Mohatu looks plenty short at 7/4 if he runs from a hold-up position, but should have enough to make the frame.
If either of two fail to fire, then I've a slight preference for Dagmar Run at 5's over Gincident at 7/2 with the latter up two classes. Could be a decent little race, this one.
Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.
Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.
In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...
...have actually generated just one UK qualifier as follows...
30 day form...
...and as the in-form Bolsover Bill runs in a 'free' race, it makes sense for me to take a quick look at the 2.45 Catterick, where I suspect he'll be well fancied to land this 10-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over the thick end of 2m3½f on soft ground...
As seen on the TS report graphic above, Bolsover Bill is in great form and seeks a 4-timer here, but Roccowithlove also won last time out , whilst both McGarry and Ribeye have wins in the recent form line. Dogem by Design looks the weakest on form.
Dogem was pulled up after losing touch LTO and has been beaten by 38, 43 and 74 lengths in his other three UK starts and at 3lbs out of the handicap, I'm happy to cross him off my list on his chasing debut.
The majority of this field all raced at this Class 5 level last time, but three of them drop down a grade; the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector along with last year's winner of this race, Relkadam.
That win last year of 8lbs higher than today makes Relkadam one of just two previous course and distance winners, along with featured runner, Bolsover Bill. The only other course or distance success from this bunch was Roccowithlove's win here over 3m1½f thirteen days ago for his first chase success.
I've already discounted Dogem By Design and at 63 days, he's been off the track the longest with the others all having raced in the last month; Relkadam and Roccowithlove have been sighted in the last fortnight.
Dogem by Design is on his second handicap and we've some new headgear on show as the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector are first-time wearers of a visor and a hood respectively.
As stated above, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) on show here and we've three winners at 2m2f to 2m4f. We also have four NH winners on soft ground and six with at least one previous Class 5 success, according to Instant Expert...
...which as you might have expected at Class 5 is awash with red! Bolsover Bill and Roccowithlove are the two obvious standouts and warning bells have started to ring about En Meme Temps (going/trip), Relkadam (going/trip, although he won this last year) and Ribeye (class), but it's highly possible that some of these might appear in a better light on place form...
Hmmm, yes, a little but Ribeye's time is up for today, I fear. A win and two places from sixteen career starts doesn't fill me with confidence about his chances on chase debut, so he's now a discard too and if we've now just got the top eight, I have some concerns about McGarry on soft ground with showers forecasted.
I know from looking at Bolsover Bill's recent wins that he likes to set the tempo of the race, but here's how his rivals have approached their last four outings too...
...suggesting that top weight Crack du Ninian might well keep him company up top, whilst Where's Hector and Dogem by Design look like they'll be held up, as might last year's winner, Relkadam who actually raced in mid-division for that race. Our Pace Analyser for this race...
...says that hold-up horses are likely to struggle to win/place and that horses on the sharp end of proceedings fare best of all.
Summary
It's hard to ignore the claims of featured horse Bolsover Bill, isn't it? He's in great form, his yard's in good form, he scores well on Instant Expert and on pace. He's also 2 from 2 under today's jockey and if we return briefly to Instant Expert and look just at chase form...
...he has to be the one, doesn't he? I know he's up 10lbs for a pair of convincing victories, but I think there might be well be a fair bit more to come for this 6 yr old. Nobody's getting rich off his 11/4 early price from Bet365, but I actually thought he might be a bit shorter.
That early market has McGarry at the same price, but a lack of chasing experience and his poor soft ground form make that price a bit skinny in my opinion and I think Roccowithlove might pose a threat. he's 11/2, which isn't long enough for an E/W bet in my opinion, whilst it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever if Relkadam put another big run in and at 8/1 he could be an E/W possible, especially if your bookie pays four places.
Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!
Sadly due to postponement of so much racing, there are no qualifiers this Tuesday. We do still, however, have our daily list of 'free' racecards, but that has also been badly affected...
12.40 Down Royal
1.00 Exeter
1.25 Leicester
6.00 Southwell
...leaving us with a 20-runner maiden hurdle and an A/W maiden! Neither appeal to me to be honest and with just one mainland UK meeting set to go ahead, I'll swerve the maiden and take a look what should be the best on the card, the 7.00 Southwell. It's a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...
My initial thoughts were that it's a 3-horse race between (in card order) Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler, but let's see what we can find.
Vespasian won five starts ago and has made the frame in his last two starts without winning, but Hiya Maite, Kim Wexler and Murbih all have a win and a runner-up finish from their last two with Kim Wexler our only LTO winner. All of that trio step up in class today with the latter pair (Kim Wexler and Murbih) up two classes and Hiya Maite up one.
The top three on the card are winless in 11, 10 and 7 races respectively, but Tolstoy drops in class here and has been noted as a fast finisher. All bar Strong Johnson have raced in the last four weeks, but he has been off for just over 15 weeks, during which he has moved yards and had a wind operation. Aside from the bottom three on the card who are all course and distance winners, he's the only other to have won at this 5f trip and none of the top four on the card have won at Southwell.
Strong Johnson is also the only one yet to win on the A/W, he's one of four previous Class 3 winners and one of two never to have raced here at Southwell before, according to Instant Expert...
...whilst those numbers filtered into A/W runs only look like this...
Murbih is the interesting one to emerge from Instant Expert and he's in decent form as noted at the top of the piece. He has made the frame in half of his 10 A/W starts, winning twice overall and finishing 30312 in five visits here. he receives weight all round and is currently making more appeal to me than Vespasian.
Southwell's tapeta is still fairly 'new' and as such we don't have as much pace/draw data as we do for other tracks, but what little we do have on the draw surprised me a little initially...
Stall by stall analysis doesn't reflect such a great high to low bias, though...
And that's reassuring to me, as I believe there shouldn't really be much in the draw over a straight 5f and that it's the way you approach the race that is key. Most (not all) 5f sprints favour those setting the pace and in that small sample above it has certainly been the case...
...and the resultant pace/draw heat map suggests that mid to highly-drawn leaders have the best chance...
*the high draw mid-div 100% record is from 1 horse
So, let's check the field's most recent outing to try to work out who might set the pace...
...and it certainly looks like they'll be hard at it from the start.
Kim Wexler & Strong Johnson are in stalls 3 & 4 with Murbih in 5 and Vespasian widest in 7. Vespasian probably edges it here, but other aspects of the toolkit analysis suggest Murbih would be a better bet of the two.
Summary
I started out with Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler uppermost in my mind, but I've arrived at a point here I think Murbih would be a better option than Vespasian. This means That I'm going to rule both out, because I don't think Murbih beats Kim Wexler. They were first and second home here over course and distance with Kim Wexler prevailing by a length and a half off equal weights. Murbih has been raised a pound for that run and KW is up 5lbs but now has an in-form 5lb claimer in the saddle, so I think the race's only mare still holds Murbih.
So that's Kim Wexler in my top 2 along with Hiya Maite, who is also in good form, only up one class as opposed to KW's two, he scored well on Instant Expert and is drawn high. The only possible issues are that he's 7lbs higher than his win two starts ago and that he might struggle for position with at least three or four getting first run on him.
Should be an interesting tussle, but I think 5/1 about Kim Wexler is a tidy price. Murbih is 15/2 with bet365 and they're paying three places, so he could be worth considering from an E/W perspective.
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
2.00 Ffos Las
3.30 Ffos Las
5.10 Southwell
6.30 Wolverhampton
...from which we'll look at the 3.30 Ffos Las, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m4f on soft (heavy in places) ground...
FORM : No Tackle won last time out, whilst Rocky Man and Equinus were both runners-up. Emmpressive Lady, Jimmy Jimmy and Sabbathcial all failed to complete. In addition to our sole LTO winner, four others (Emmpressive Lady, Rocky Man, New Found Fame and Sabbathical) have all won at least one of their most recent outings. Jimmy Jimmy has failed to finish four of his last five!
CLASS : Pileon, Whitehotchillifili & Gladiateur Allen are all down a class, whilst Equinus and No Tackle are up one grade with Sabbathical stepping up two classes.
WHAT'S NEW/DIFFERENT? : Both of those stepping up one class (Equinus and No Tackle) are on handicap debut, whilst New Found Fame is having a second attempt. Jimmy Jimmy makes both a yard and UK debut after recently leaving Gordon Elliott.
Emmpressive Lady is one of just two (Whitehotchillifili the other) mares in the race and she's running for the first time since a wind op, whilst LTO winner No Tackle wears a tongue tie for the first time.
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Master Debonair, Equinus and Blacko hve won at a similar trip to this one, but top weight and class dropper Pileon is the only one to have won here, landing a 2m5f contest in January 2020.
LAST RUN : Emmpressive Lady's wind op took place during her 341 days off track, but all her rivals have been seen in the past two months with Gladiateur Allen turned back out quickest at 16 days.
Instant Expert highlights our sole course winner and the nine to have won at a similar trip noted above, but also shows that all bar one have won on soft/heavy ground, but that only three have won a Class 3 NH contest, yet four (Pileon, Emmpressive Lady, Master Debonair & Gladiateur Allen) have won at Class 2!
There's quite a bit of red on there, but much of it off small numbers of runs in fairness. Whitehotchillifili's 1 from 7 at the trip might need looking at, as might Gladiateur Allen's 1 from 8 and Sabbathical's 1 from 7, but the latter's 2 from 21 on soft/heavy is more of a concern, to be honest followed by his 0 from 8 at this track. Along with Jimmy Jimmy, who can't seem to get round I'd suggest that Sabbathical is amongst the weakest here and I'm discarding the pair.
The top four on the card have multiple wins on this going and Emmpressive Lady's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 is probably the pick of the pack. Overall, if we then switch our focus to place form, Rocky Man would seem best suited all round...
...and based just on the above place form, I'd going to cross Master Debonair & Blacko off for having no green and also Equinus for a lack of relevant experience : he's had three runs, all at 2m at lower grades and has yet to win. He's on handicap debut and might well need the benefit of a debut.
All of which leaves me with seven to consider and this is how they've approached their last four races...
That data suggests that Rocky Man and New Found Fame are likely to be waited with in a race, where the mare Whitehotchillifili is the one most likely to set the pace. Past similar races here haven't been kind to hold-up horses...
This actually poses a problem for me, as I think that Rocky Man might be the 'best' horse in the race, but closer inspection says he was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out , failing to make up enough ground from a hold-up position and losing by two lengths. A repeat of that run doesn't necessarily make him win this one and a 2lb rise in weight after not winning mighty well make him go down again.
Summary
I expected to be making a case for Rocky Man here and he might well go on to win, but I'm concerned about him trying to make up ground in the mud off a higher weight than last time out. That said, if there was a bit of juice in the price, he still might not have been a bad bet, but as a 15/8 or 2/1 fav, he's not for me. I think the two that fascinate me most are the mares, Emmpressive Lady and Whitehotchiilifili, particularly the latter.
The Lady has admittedly been off track for just over 11 months, but has had a wind op in that time. She was also pulled up LTO, but that was a 3m2½f affair on soft ground at Hereford, where she ran out of steam 3 out, just 3 days after winning over 2m7½f at a higher grade. This is much shorter and she'd won her previous two before that race and had actually won four and finished as a runner-up once in the seven races prior to that PU run LTO. She's currently 10/1 with bet365 paying four places and that mightn't be a bad shout.
As for Whitehot, she's a bit shorter at 15/2 but could also make the first four home, based on past place form. She has made the frame in 9 of 21, including 7 of 16 on soft/heavy. She has won a Listed race in the past and was beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 race at Ascot a year ago.
Another cold day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...
...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which were set to be...
12.40 Ascot
1.30 Haydock
2.12 Lingfield
3.00 Ascot
4.20 Taunton
6.30 Wolverhampton
Seeing as we've already lost Ascot and Taunton and there are doubts over Haydock and Southwell, I'm going to hang fire and wait until Saturday morning before adding my preview.
As those of us up in the North West expected, we lost Haydock too, leaving me with two 'free' races and two possibles from the TJC Report. The best (on paper, at least) of those four races is the one featuring the Haggas/Marquand combo above, the 2.47 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack. It's the Winter Oaks and is worth over £50k and we do have a short-priced fav, but let's see how Morgan Fairy might get on against these...
I normally do my piece before the markets have fully formed, but today I can see the full picture and the betting seems to spilt the field into two halves...
...and my own figures also have the same spilt, where I'm expecting Al Agaila, Purple Ribbon, Morgan Fairy and Makinmedoit as the ones to focus on, but I'm going to see if a case can be made for a longer-priced E/W punt.
The Flying Ginger is the only one of the field without a win in her most recent form line and I'm going to dismiss her straight from the start because she's not in great form, her yard isn't firing right now, she's up two classes and runs from 6lbs out of the handicap. That's probably as many negatives as one needs!
As for the others, all have at least one win from five, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila have two and the latter is one of three (with Morgan Fairy & Aiming High) who won last time out. Fetured horse, Morgan Fairy is up one class here whilst At A Pinch and Aiming High are up two and three grades respectively. Top weight, Purple Ribbon, however was a runner-up, beaten by just a neck in a Listed race whern last seen.
The fav, Al Agaila, won on handicap debut last time out, landing the Winter Oaks Trial here over course and distance with the re-opposing Makinmedoit & Tequilamockingbird separated by a short head, some 2.5 lengths behind the winner. All three of those horses have now won over this course and distance.
At A Pinch makes a handicap debut here and she's the only one without a win at track or trip and hasn't raced on the Flat/AW for fifteen months, which will make this tough. After the three C&D winners, only Morgan Fairy has won at this venue, getting home by a neck over a mile on New Year's Eve.
All eight have run in the last eight weeks with just The Flying Ginger and Aiming High with a run in 2023. This pair are the only two yet to win on standard going, half of the field are previous Class 2 winners and we've already talked about course/distance winners. Instant Expert brings all this data together in a simple-to-view graphic...
As per the market and my own figures, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila feature strongly. Purple Ribbon has little experience and is without a Class 2 run, but did come very close to landing a Listed race last time out. Morgan Fairy tackles an A/W 1m2f for the first time here after running mainly over a mile, so may have to dig deep.
Of the lesser favoured half of the field, Tequilamockingbird is the one most likely to "win" that race on these figures. She has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 A/W starts, finishing 113 in her three visits to Lingfield all over course and distance.
She's drawn in stall 6, one place inside Makinmedoit, whilst the other three principals have bagged the inside three berths over a course and distance that would initially appear to favour those drawn lowest...
...but stall-by-stall data suggests that it's not quite that clear-cut...
...and I personally, wouldn't be too concerned which of the eight stalls my runner emerged from to be honest. Ideally, stalls 2 or 3 would be great, but even box 8 has won as often as #3. The Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map would tend to suggest tht this race could be won/lost by where in the field a horse positions itself..
..as aside from low drawn leaders, prominent runners are the most successful irrespective of draw and this is backed up by the pace stats for those 130+ races above...
These say to that a hold-up runner represents your worst chance of getting any money back from an E/W perspective and the win chance is almost as poor as those in mid-division. Mid-div horses do make the frame almost as often as prominent runners, but I think you're going to want a runner in the front half of the pack and based on this field's most recent runs...
...that's yet another tick for Al Agaila, but interestingly both Purple Ribbon and Makinmedoit are hold-up types. The latter, of course was second to the fav here LTO from that hold-up position, so it might not necessarily rule her out, especially as she's now 10lbs better off!
So, from my original four Al Agaila is the low drawn leader we looked for, Morgan Fairy is likely to be prominent, as also possible E/W punt Tequilamockingbird should be.
Summary
I started with four 'most likelys' and I think they're still exactly that, but it's very hard to get away from the 10/11 favourite Al Agaila. My pockets aren't deep enough to have a large enough bet to make it worthwhile, but if I did then she'd be the one here for me. That said, Makinmedoit is now 10lbs better than her runner-up run LTO which should get her much closer to the fav (on paper), although you suspect there's far more to come from the winner.
At 9/1, though, Makinmedoit wouldn't be a bad E/W prospect and at as big as 16's in places, nor would Teqiulamockingbird. I still think Purple Ribbon and Morgan fairy will run well, but they're not my idea of a winner in this race and aren't long enough for me to back E/W.
Whatever happens, it has the makings of a decent contest.
Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive and as such, have produced two qualifiers...
Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, but this selection has been decimated by the current cold snap, leaving us with...
2.20 Southwell
5.45 Newcastle
The latter of those two looks the better contest on paper, so let's have a quick look at the 5.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f...
Bert Kibbler is the only one to have won last time out and he comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins at Southwell. Bellagio Man has made the frame in each of his last seven, including runner-up finishes in each of his last three outings. Modular Magic was also a runner-up LTO.
The bottom three on the card, Bert Kibbler, Modular Magic and Primo's Comet are all up a class, but top weight Papa Don't Preach drops in from from finishing 3rd of 6 at Class 3.
Maritime Rules is the only one yet to win at either trip or track, whilst Motawaazy and Primo's Comet have acheived both here at Newcastle. Bellagio Man's win over 6f here in November makes him the only other course winner, but he's the only other non-winner at 5f. Mind you he's only had one attempt!
Hat-trick seeking Bert Kibbler is not only up in class, but it's also his first run in just over a year, which might be problematical. Maritime Rules has had a seven-week break, but the remainder have all raced in the last three weeks with Papa Don't Preach, Motawaazy and Modular Magic all sighted inside the last week.
We already know that we've three course winners and seven distance winners, but Instant Expert tells me that we've five winners on Std/Slow and two winners on the A/W at this grade...
Motawaazy and Bert Kibbler catch the eye in a largely uninspiring set of figures. Perhaps place data might clarify a few things...
Well, it certainly helps me to eliminate Papa Don't Preach, Dusky Prince and Primo's Comet from my calculations on the basis that if you're scoring red for places, how likely are you to win? Bellagio Man may be 0/9 at this level, but with 7 placed finishes, he's certainly not discounted, especially with a full line of green. After taking those three runners out, my field looks like this in draw order...
...and as you can see, I've removed the two widest drawn runners, which according to our draw analyser, might not be the wisest decision...
..but it does boost the cause of Bert Kibbler in #7, I suppose and if he runs like he was doing last winter, he's the most likely to try to make all here...
...with Instant Expert place eyecatcher Bellagio Man the one to bring up the rear in the early stages. Let's now assess those races from the draw analyser for pace...
...and they're saying that Bert Kibbler's approach should work here, as the further back you race, the harder it is to win, as it is with most 5f contests.
The pace/draw heat map should therefore highlight a high drawn leader as a runner of serious interest...
...and it would suggest that Bert Kibbler is very well positioned.
Summary
Here I have a problem, the pace/draw heatmap is so stacked in Bert Kibbler's favour that it's hard to ignore, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 Tapeta runs over 5f and he does come here on a hat-trick. But there's bad news too, he hasn't raced for just over a year and he's up 8lbs and up in class, so he'd more likely be one for the places if he's not quite race sharp.
The other side of the coin is that I think Modular Magic and Bellagio Man are the best runners in the race (so does the market, sadly), but both are poorly drawn. The former will be closer to the pace than the latter, but the latter's consistency on the A/W is brilliant.
The truth is that I don't know who I think wins this, but if Modular Magic returns to front-running, he could shade it seeing as he lost by a short-head over course and distance a week ago after being unusually held up. He's currently 5/2, Bellagio Man is 9/2 and Bert Kibbler is 6/1. From a value perspective, you'd want the latter to win, but I just can't call it. I think that these are your placers, but none are long enough for me to back E/W, so I'll sit this one out.
Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, thanks to the weather have been reduced to...
1.55 Wolverhampton
7.30 Kempton
...and as a Class 2 Conditions Stakes should be better than a Class 5 fillies' maiden, we're off to the 7.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2 contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...
We should start with the elephant in the room, the faact that Annaf is very likely to go off as an odd-on favourite and he and Kiwano both won last time out, but Haziym and Tone The Barone are winless in at least five. Tinker Toy has a win and two runner-up finishes from his last four, whilst Aramis Grey goes one better with two wins and two runner-up spots.
Annaf is noted as a fast finisher and at just 5 days since his last run, he's the one who has had the least rest. Kiwano has also raced this year, but all six have been seen in the last month. Kiwano now steps up in class after his win 12 days ago.
Tinker Toy is the only one yet to win at the trip, whilst both Kiwano and Aramis Grey have both won over course and distance. It's not a handicap, of course, but based on official ratings vs weight, Tinker Toy is best off by a pound with Kiwano worst off.
Feature of the day, Instant Expert, is another positive vote for our fav...
Tone The Barone has proven himself in this grade and Kiwano is 2 from 2 here, whilst Aramis Grey's two wins and two runner-up finishes on this track isn't too shabby. She's 2 from 3 over course and distance whilst Kiwano has over 6f and 7f. The mare is, of course, very good over this trip. What the above doesn't tell you is that she has 6 wins and 7 further places from 17 under today's jockey.
She's drawn in stall 1 here with the fav in stall 4 and our draw analyser suggests the mare has the better of the two draws, but maybe not as good as Tinker Toy in box 2...
That said, it's a 6f sprint around a bend on the A/W and I've a feeling that Aramis Grey won't be the first to the turn based on this field's recent outings...
There's no automatic lead-out horse, but Kiwano is the one I'd expect to set the pace over a track and trip where, in fairness, only mid-division horses have struggled...
...which is probably the first negative for Annaf here.
Summary
Annaf should be winning this and if you've deep pockets, you could make some money but at the stakes I play at, odds of 10/11 don't excite me and to be honest I didn't think it was that clear-cut, 11/8 or 6/4 might be a fairer price. However, that means some of the others might be longer than expected.
If Annaf is set aside as a likely winner, I'll also set aside Tone The Barone and Haziym from my calculations. The former is winless in six and hasn't even looked like making the frame, plus he's on track debut here, whilst the latter was a well-beaten last of seven on his UK debut on Boxing Day.
This leaves me with three for one place and there's not much to separate the three, but 7/2 shot Tinker Toy is probably better over 7f and hasn't yet won on poly track, 4/1 priced Kiwano has a good record here at Kempton but is worst off at the weights by some margin, whilst the 9/1 price about Aramis Grey looks quite big to me. She's proven at the track, trip (track & trip!) and going, gets on great with her jockey and is in decent form (1122) giving her a reasonable shot at making the frame.
Our free feature for Wednesday is the Trainer Stats (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
We also have our usual smattering of free fully functional racecards, but after Newbury's cancellation they just cover...
...have sadly generated no horses to look at, so my dislike of Irish racing leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 6.45 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...
Finery & Falesia Beach both won LTO and Cailin Saoirse made the frame, beaten by just two necks. She has, however, won two of her last four, butr the rest of the field is winless in five.
Divine Connection and Cailin Saoirse both step up from Class 6, whilst Finery and Theotherside step down from classes 4 and 3 respectively. Falesia Beach wears blinkers for the first time and the entire field has raced in the last six weeks with four of them (Finery, Queen of Burgundy, Divine Connection & Cailin Saoirse) already 'out' this year.
Instant Expert, our collateral form tool, says that all bar Theotherside and Grey Belle have won the A/W previously and of the five past A/W winners, three have won at Class 5, two have won here at Southwell and all five have scored over this trip. Theotherside does have a Class 5 win on turf, but Grey Belle's sole career win from fourteen starts was over a mile on turf...
LTO winner Finery's last seven runs have been on the A/W and she has 3 wins and 2 places from those efforts over the last four months and she's one of just two course and distance winners, the other being Falesia Beach. Finery is up 5lbs for last Tuesday's comfortable C&D success, but she clearly looks the one to beat on both recent form and Instant Expert. Theotherside has struggled here at Southwell, Grey Belle just doesn't win often enough and Divine Connection has too many going/distance failures to her name for my liking.
We have limited draw/pace data for Southwell with the tapeta track being little more than a year old, so we've made some minor tweaks to the filter parameters to get some data to work with as follows...
The basic premise here is that the higher the draw the better for win purposes with mid-draws best for places, but a quick look at stall-by-stall data...
...suggests there's not much in it and the stall 3-6 grouping has fared best. With regards to pace, again we've used the same parameters and again, there's not a great deal in it...
...and the lack of major bias for draw or pace is reflected by how much green there is on the pace/draw heat map...
Our field's last four outings have been run as follows...
...suggesting that Finery and Queen of Burgundy from stalls 2 and 6 might be the ones setting the fractions with Cailin Saoirse the likely back marker and when we put those average pace scores and the draw onto the heat map...
...the four most likely to succeed would appear to be Finery, Falesia Beach, Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection
Summary
I'm of the opinion that in relatively small fields with little/no bias for draw and/or pace, then the best horses generally win and the two to beat here should be Finery and Falesia Beach and probably in that order.
That then leaves Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection to fight it out for a place and heat map aside, the latter really doesn't tick any boxes.
Sadly the market has the same 1-2-3 as we've arrived at and they're best priced at 9/4, 7/2 and 4/1 respectively.
Fontwell was a washout on Monday, so figures crossed for some action on Tuesday where our free GOLD offering is the Shortlist, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that the Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
This usually brief report looks like this for Tuesday with a couple of races of interest...
...and this free list is complemented by the following 'races of the day'...
2.50 Clonmel
3.00 Chepstow
7.00 Southwell
8.30 Southwell
And I suppose with two of the three Shortlist horses running in a 'free' race, I should be focusing on the 3.00 Chepstow, where Emmpressive Lady and Come On Gruff will take on eight others in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3½f on soft (heavy in places) ground...
None of these managed to win last time out, but Come On Gruff did at least make the frame, beaten by little more than half a length after a three mile slog at Kempton. Conversely Emmpressive Lady was the only one of these to fail get round on their recent outings, although she had entered that race seeking a hat-trick. Come On Gruff won three and five starts back and New Found Fame won four back on debut, but the rest of the field are winless in five.
He now makes just a second handicap appearance, as does top-weight Iamastar who is sporting first-time cheekpieces and a tongue tie after being well beaten on his UK debut two months ago at this grade. Speaking of class, Gladiateur Allen , Kateson & Ballyellis all drop a class, whilst Come On Gruff moves the other way from Class 4.
Most of this field have won over a similar trio with top-weight Iamastar and bottom-weight Blacko the two exceptions, but only Kateson has won here at Chepstow, having prevailed over 2m4f some 50 months ago.
Eight of the field have raced in the last eight weeks, but Emmpressive Lady's last outing was eleven months ago, whilst Ballyellis hasn't been sighted since August 2021. The 10 yr old could be excused for being a bit rusty, but he did win over 2m at Fakenham 22 months ago coming off a break of 14 months, so his layoff might not be the negative you'd expect and with two wins and a place from four on soft ground, he might be a surprise contender here.
The Instant Expert stats for this field show that all bar Iamastar have at least one win on soft/heavy ground, we've got half a dozen previous Class 3 winners and as per above 8 distance winners, but just to have won here at Chepstow...
The stats suggest that Emmpressive Lady & Alnadam are proven in the mud and the former probably makes most appeal of all ten on that graphic which also highlights that the bottom four in the weights all now carry at least 10lbs less than their last win over hurdles, whilst both Come On Gruff and Alnadam are rated at least half a stone higher than their last wins.
Our pace analyser says that leaders make the frame more than any other approach, but they are often beaten by prominent runners sitting in behind them primed for a run...
...as 42% of placed prominent runners go on to win, but only 18.2% of leaders hang on. One in three mid-divisional running placers have gone on to win, which is better than the 29.2% of hold-up horses. As we log each UK run, we can now see how this field have approached their last four races...
And based on the above, I'd expect Kateson & Blacko to set the pace with Ballyellis & Come On Gruff the prominent chasers. Mid-division is where we'll probably see Alnadam, Emmpressive Lady and Gladiateur Allen with New Found Fame & Forecast our hold-up horses. I've purposely left Iamastar out of those assumptions, as I don't know enough about his running style to formualte an assumption.
Summary
After the above, I fully expected Come On Gruff to be the favourite at around 5/2, which he is at 4.30pm with Bet365, meaning that Hills' 10/3 might offer some good value at the sharp end of the market. He's in decent enough form, scores well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race and I'd expect him to be the one they all need to beat. Our other Shortlist runner, the only mare in the race, Emmpressive Lady, will need to come from a bit further back but I'd expect her to be involved late on and should be good enough for a place, but I'd need more than the current 11/2 to tempt me into an E/W flutter there.
If there was to be an E/W option, then Alnadam at 17/2 might provide it. He hasn't tackled hurdles since winning over this trip at Hereford 22 months ago on soft ground and has spent that time getting beaten over fences, but he now reverts to the smaller hurdles 8lbs higher than that win, but some 2lbs lower than his most recent win (over fences 11 months ago).
The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...
1.10 Hereford
1.20 Punchestown
2.30 Fontwell
3.40 Hereford
And as that list contains an Irish race and two UK novices events, my dislike of both leads me to the 2.30 Fontwell. It might well be low on numbers and there may well be a very short priced fav, but we might get a nice placer for the forecast, it's not a bad standard of race and it's a stayers' contest on tricky ground (a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on heavy ground) as follows...
Coolvalla is four from five and comes here on the back of three straight wins. Premier D'Troice was placed LTO but Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both failed to complete, whilst Echo Watt is the only one without a win in their last five runs (eleven to be precise!).
Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both raced at this grade three weeks ago, but Coolvalla & Premier D'Troice are up one class with Echo Watt up two levels. All five ran 21 or 26 days ago.
All bar bottom-weight Echo Watt have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst all bar Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have won here at Fontwell with both Premier D'Troice & Coolvalla successful over course and distance, a feat achieved by the latter LTO and three starts back.
Instant Expert highlights these and other stats...
As you can see, all have won on heavy ground, which is a start and the top two on the card seem to make most appeal here. Likely short-priced fav Coolvalla is only 1/4 on heavy, but has also won three of four on soft. Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have both struggled at this grade and are probably Class 4 horses at best.
COOLVALLA won just once from six races over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences, winning all three efforts culminating in a 19 lengths course and distance rout on Boxing Day. He has been stung with an 11lb rise as shown above, but I doubt that's enough to anchor him.
PREMIER D'TROICE was a runner up here over C&D back in May before scoring over this trip at Uttoxeter six weeks alter. Has struggled in a couple of races off 7/8lbs higher, but was third last time out off a mark of 117 (3 higher than his last win) and now eased another couple of pounds, could go well again.
PUTDECASHONTHEDASH hasn't raced much of late and last won almost a year when landing a Class 4 chase over this trip on good ground at Plumpton. He was then off the track for ten months and was pulled up on his return at Wincanton in early December. His only outing since then was on Boxing Day back at Wincanton where he fell halfway through the race.
ALMINAR was a surprising winner at Ffos Las two months ago when landing a 3m soft ground Class 4 chase despite not having raced for 17 months, but hasn't backed that run up in two starts since. He was 7th of 11, beaten by 31 lengths at Exeter and was subsequently puled up at Wincanton on Boxing Day in the same race that Putdecashonthedash was a faller.
ECHO WATT was a runner-up here in early November, 7 lengths behind Coolvalla, on his return from a nine month break, but unseated his rider next time out in what was the first of three Class 5 2m6½f/2m7½f chases at Lingfield. The middle race saw him second of twelve, beaten by nearly six lengths and most recently he was fourth of ten, more than twenty five lengths adrift. Up two classes and 3½f here on the back of eleven defeats, he'd be an unlikely winner for me even if he is now 27lbs better of with the fav.
Today's feature is, of course, pace and based upon a system of 1 = held-up, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led or was one of the leaders, this is how the field have raced in their last four respective starts...
Coolvalla's last three are his entire chase career and with a 3 and a 4 in there, I'd expect him to be prominent here, Premier D'Troice is essentially a hold-up horse, Putdecashonthedash will want to set the pace with Echo Watt racing prominently and Alminar little further back but ahead of Premier D'Troice. I know I've made a couple of assumptions/surmisations there, but I'd expect them to head out in this order... 4 : Putdecashonthedash / Coolvalla 3 : Echo Watt 2 : Alminar 1 : Premier D'Troice
...that leaders fare much better than any other running style with hold-up horses having a good place record.
Summary
The pace analyser points to a leader winning the race and with Putdecashonthedash inspiring very little confidence from recent runs, that leaves us with the fav Coolvalla. And if the hold-up horses make the frame in these small fields, then that points towards Premier D'Troice, but does that fit in with the rest of my quick analysis?
Well, yes! They bring the best form to the table, scored best on Instant Expert, they're the two C&D winners and carry the least amounts of doubts of the five at play here.
I don't however, see Premier beating the fav, so in my eyes, it's the 4/6 Coolvalla beating the 7/1 Premier D'Troice. I don't like backing odd-on jollies, but that's up to you. I do like playing the exacta/forecast type of bets and at 7/1 in a five-horse race, Premier D'Troice could be an attractive E/W proposition.
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following for me to consider...
...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
12.35 Lingfield
1.45 Lingfield
1.57 Wetherby
2.32 Wetherby
2.40 Kempton
The sharper-eyed amongst will have noticed that one runner from my TJC Report goes in one of our free races, which means I should take a look at that race. I wouldn't normally go anywhere near this kind of race normally (too many runners!), but shall we see if we can quickly identify a possible E/W bet or two in the Lanzarote? That's the 2.40 Kempton on your cards and it's a 20-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground. Our selection from the TJC Report won the race last year for the same trainer/jockey combo and here's how they line up...
FORM : Scarface comes here on a hat-trick but Red Risk, Quinta do Mar, Fifty Ball, Green Glory, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee all won last time out and the last three on that have won two of their last three, whilst Whizz Kid and Hermes Boy are both winless in five.
CLASS : Ten of these (Pentland Hills, last year's winner Cobblers Dream, Quinta Do Mar, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Outlaw Peter, Up for Parol, Dubrovnik Harry, Rathmacknee & Hermes Boy) all move up one class and Mark of Gold steps up two levels, but top weight Camprond and Stag Horn both drop down from Class 1 (Gr2 and Gr1 respectively), leaving just seven who ran at this grade LTO.
ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : No new headgear or any wind ops, but Pentland Hills, West Balboa & Green Glory make just their second handicap starts, whilst class dropper Stag Horn & Outlaw Peter are both on handicap debut.
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Last year's winner (obviously!) Cobblers Dream has won over course and distance, as has Outlaw Peter, but we've no other Kempton winners. However Red Risk, Stag Horn, Harbour Lake, Shantou Express, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Rathmacknee and Scarface have all scored over similar trip to this 2m5f one.
LAST RACE : At 276, 281 and 293 days respectively, Up For Parol, Stag Horn and Fifty Ball all return from at least nine months 'rest'. Outlaw Peter was last seen ten weeks ago, but the remainder have all raced in the last two months with Hermes Boy out as recently as a fortnight ago as a Uttoxeter runner-up on New Year's Eve.
AGE : Petit Tonnerre is the 'baby' of the pack, taking on 5 x 6yos, 9 x 7yos and 5 x 8yos in a race that 6yos have fared best in over the last 25 years.
In addition to the course/distance winners above, eleven of these have won on soft ground already and five have won at this grade, as documented here by Instant Expert...
...where Stag Horn looks pretty well suited by conditions. Pentland Hills, Up for Parol and Hermes Boy don't have great soft ground form and Red Risk has a poor record at Class 2 with Whizz Kid also 0/4 at this level. Quinta Do Mar doesn't look like he'll be suited by the race either, but most of these to have tackled the trip have done well enough.
The report about last year's race said of the winners, Cobblers Dream..."prominent, led before 2 out, ridden after 2 out, not fluent last, stayed on strongly run-in ..." as he won by 5.5 lengths and although the sample size is fairly small, I'd suggest that such an approach is going to pan out better than being held up...
...which based on their most recent outings...
...probably doesn't bode well for all those from Mark of Gold downwards, excepting perhaps Cobblers Dream and Harbour Lake.
Summary
It's a pretty open-looking race to be fair, but the standouts are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee on form. Cobblers Dream and Outlaw Peter have won over course and distance and Stag Horn caught the eye on Instant Expert. I also want to be in the upper half of the pace chart and based on everything above, the ones that interest me most are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn.
I think all five have a decent chance of making the frame, whilst Outlaw Peter might not be a bad win shout at 7/1 and with most bookies paying six places (Sky pay seven!), you could make a pretty good E/W case for Scarface, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn at odds of 20/1, 18/1, 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
...have yielded the following trio of qualifiers for Friday...
...and I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
2.40 Lingfield
3.00 Huntingdon
3.30 Huntingdon
3.55 Dundalk
4.00 Huntingdon
Three on the bounce from Huntingdon hardly seems random, but that's the luck of the draw and I think I'm going to shun the free races to look at the two H4C report horses in the 3.40 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...
No LTO winners here, but Rikona won two starts ago and was a runner-up on her last outing. Sundayinmay was also a recent runner-up, as she has been three times in her last five contests. Elsewhere no real form to consider.
D Day Odette has made the frame just once in her eight winless race career and she now drops in class to run here, but both Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa step up a level. Connections of another 8-race maiden, Thefastnthecurious, will hope that a first-time visor helps their mare make the frame for the first on the A/W after three failures to date.
Yet despite the field's apparent poor form and lack of wins, three of the seven (Rikona, Midgetonamission and Miss Elsa) have all scored over course and distance, whilst Sundayinmay is two from three over a mile and a half on this track. Star from Afarhh, like the two maidens mentioned above, has failed to win at either track or trip.
She (Star) has been off the track the longest of this group, but at 37 days since her last run, the lay-off shouldn't really matter. Only Rikona has raced in 2023, finishing half a length behind the winner over 1m3f at Southwell on New Year's Day. She's one of four 4 yr olds in the race with Miss Elsa the "veteran" at seven!
With this field having a combined win & place percentages of 11.48% and 31.97% respectively (39 places including 14 wins from a combined 122 starts), I'm not to hopeful of gleaning much from Instant Expert, but you never know until you look...
We're obviously only going to get reds from the two maidens at the top of the card and most of these have toiled at Class 5, but Miss Elsa has respectable figures at least, especially just on the All-Weather and at 16lbs lower than her last win, might be well weighted here. The two runners drawn lowest have the best records here at Lingfield. With the lack of much data action above, I think I should see if the overall & A/W place figures can help us...
...where Rikona looks a very strong candidate to make the frame here, as do Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa. Midgetonamission loves it here at Lingfield and gets the trip readily, but all her form is at Class 6. It's interesting (to me, anyway) that the two that look best on that last graphic are drawn at polar opposites in the stalls in berths 1 and 7, so it's time to consult the draw analyser to see which, if any, of them might be best suited. My usual caveat is in place, of course, that over 10f, the draw should have the same effect as over 5f, but let's check that draw analyser...
And aside from what looks an anomalous set of figures for stall 4 (poor Star from Afarhh), my caveat seems to be pretty accurate. Yes high draws do better than low draws, but if you look at the actual data, there's really very little in it...
The Pace Analyser, however, does give us more to work with from those races above...
...showing a pretty clear advantage to biding one's time in mid-division. We log how every horse runs in the UK and we can show you the last four outings for each of these seven runners and it's a score of around 2 we're looking for. Higher is OK, but hold-up horses haven't done well at all..
...and we've got a mixed bag here. Miss Elsa likes to race prominently, but tends not to lead. Rikona's best form has come from a hold-up position. I'd expect Thefastnthecurious to be fairly advanced in the field with Miss Elsa. Sundayinmay and D Day Odette look like our mid-div runners we were looking for and although Star from Afarrh led last time out, I suspect she'll be held up with Midgetonamission.
There's a fair bit of conjecture and interpretation there, admittedly, but I think Sundayinmay just about shades the pace verdict, as she marginally did on draw. We can combine the draw & pace data to form our unique Geegeez heat maps as follow...
...where mid to high drawn mid div runners win most often closely followed by the high drawn leaders, whilst the high drawn mid-div runners & leaders again score well on places. Based on what we've seen above, here's how I think the race might unfold in draw order...
In truth, I think it's going to be a falsely-run race with nobody really wanting to take it on and that would just play into the hands of the 'better' runners here. A few of these might be better off breaking out and having a go at it, most are expected to lose anyway.
Summary
For me the two best runners in the race are Rikona and Sundayinmay, sadly the bookies (as of 4.50pm) agree with me and have them as 11/8 and 5/2 market principals and it's probably an indictment of how poor the race is when the top weight and 8-race maiden (D Day Odette) is next in line at 4/1. If any were to emerge from the pack to challenge the favourites, then Midgetonamission certainly loves it here and at 18/1 with both Hills & Bet365 paying three places, she might be worth a couple of pennies as an E/W interest.
The 1-2, however, should be Rikona and Sundayinmay and I think I'd like the latter from the H4C report to beat the former.
Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards. The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.
The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all. And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...
12.15 Clonmel
2.50 Catterick
3.35 Newcastle
3.55 Catterick
As ever, I do like to look at the extremes of racing and that leads me to the 2.50 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on heavy ground...
None of these come here off the back of a winning run, but Bushypark and the sole mare in the race, Legend's Ryde, did at least make the frame whilst Burbank, Cyclop & Sam's Adventure all failed to finish. Burbank and legend's Ryde are the only two with a 'recent' win. Burbank and Sam's Adventure both now drop down from Class 2 and the latter now wears a first-time visor, whilst Cyclop's last outing was in a Class 1 handicap.
Bushypark was a runner-up last Saturday after having been pulled up in all four runs in 2022 and he's back out just five days later. That said, all his rivals have raced in the last six weeks. The mare Legend's Ryde is the 'baby' of the field at the age of eight, whilst Cyclops, the sole distance winner is now the ripe old age of 12.
Feature of the day is Instant Expert, so let's look at this field's overall NH form and also just chase stats...
Generally Burbank and Thunderosa haven't gone well in the mud and the latter is probably the weakest runner in the race and hasn't really impressed at in making the frame just once in ten starts over fences. Four of these are Class 3 winners, although it has taken Cyclops thirty races to amass just three wins, but he is also the only distance winner in the field. Only Thunderosa has raced here previously.
Onto chase form...
...which looks a little more promising from a going/class perspective, but no real stand-out candidate. Thunderosa still looks the weakest, as he did when last home of four here on New Year's Day. He was held up in rear that day and never landed a blow in a near-40 length defeat. Those tactics were unusual for a horse who normally races towards the head of affairs as shown on our pace logs...
...and if reverts to his usual tactics, he could well keep Bushypark company in the early stages of a race on a track that hasn't been too kind to hold-up horses in staying chases in the mud...
...but those leading the way have thrived and I suspect this will help Bushypark more than Thunderosa who has yet to prove himself as a stayer.
Summary
The one I initially like here is Legend's Ryde. She ran well at Cheltenham last out and was third of six in a Listed race in November. She likes the mud and gets on really well with jockey Gavin Sheehan and with three wins/two further places from nine over fences, she's a good benchmark for this field.
My doubts about her stem from the fact that she's only gone beyond three miles on four occasions and has never raced further than her 3m2½f win at Fontwell last March. I've had a quick look at the market and I can't back her at 3/1, it's just too short for me with those doubts about the trip.
The other one posing a conundrum is 5/2 favourite Bushypark. He won over hurdles in Feb'21 and then next time out, but over fences nearly ten months later off a mark of 132. He was raised to 137 and toiled, going down by almost 90 lengths at the end of 2021.
He was then pulled up in all four runs last year, but was then a runner-up at Newcastle last week, only headed late on in a 1.5 length defeat. He's unexposed (3 starts inc 1 win) over fences and is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark and if in the same mood as last week, should be the one to beat. 5/2 is a bit skinny, but i think that's down to a lack of real opposition.
The Breeders' Cup action on the tracks at Keeneland was, barring the high class procession of Flightline in the Classic, fiercely contested and highly emotionally charged. So, too, was betting the races; and, for this punter at least, it was a white knuckle roller coaster of a weekend. Allow me to elaborate...
A feature of playing big meetings is the availability of futures - or ante post, if you prefer - markets: more generous prices offered ahead of time when there is less certainty about which horses will run, what form they will be in, and how the races will set up. In the days leading up to the event, I had what the latest markets suggested was a solid value book and, importantly, had largely dodged the dreaded no shows.
Alas, that luck didn't hold with Laurel River getting scratched from the Dirt Mile the day before. 7/1 about a 3/1 shot is decent; 7/1 about a non-runner is, well, not decent. That's the futures game in a nutshell right there.
To Friday, and five two-year-old contests, three of them on the turf. How would the Europeans fare? And how would the portfolio hold up?! The opening Juvenile Turf Sprint would offer a tentative answer to both questions.
Love Reigns had been available at 8/1 a few days prior to race day - highlighted in this post as a likely shortener - and was sent off the 3.14/1 favourite for Wesley Ward, seeking a fourth straight win in the race; it's only been on the card for five years! That one broke only OK but couldn't run with the British speedsters who, led by Mischief Magic, finished 1-2-4-5. I'd had little bets on a few US horses (they'd won all four prior renewals) and they're mostly still running... I did nick a couple of quid with Dramatised's fine run but neither she nor any other was a match for Charlie Appleby's colt.
Next came the Juvenile Fillies and a contention that the Alcibiades, run over the same course and distance four weeks prior, was the key race. There, Wonder Wheel beat Chop Chop by a rapidly diminishing nose, with Raging Sea third. Chop Chop was the bet and 6/1 was secured (having flagged her at 8's and been too tardy to actually get any of that). She went off a little bigger than 9/4 but had no chance, getting a five wide transit throughout and eased off in the straight, with Wonder Wheel winning again and Raging Sea again finishing third. The winner was impressive under different tactics - she was supposed to be front rank but missed the bus! - and would probably have won anyway.
Staying with the two-year-old fillies but on the grass now, in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, it was time for Europe to try to win their third renewal on the occasion of the fifteenth running. Not a strong record, but Aidan O'Brien had peppered the target in spite of never having won the race. I'd fielded against the British and Irish, with their very poor race record, and had some fancy prices about a clutch of American runners. It was money back on G Laurie after she scratched the day before; and I was cheering 20/1 Free Look or 40/1 Pleasant Passage to get in front.
We all know what Meditate did: she was much the best and dominated in the straight. But with 13/2 or so Pleasant Passage running second, and 15/2 Free Look less than a length behind her in fifth, it was another close but no cigar event for this punter.
After two second places at decent prices, and a favourite taken at 6/1 who was the 'right answer with the wrong trip', it wasn't going especially well. And it would be going worse after the Juvenile...
In that penultimate Breeders' Cup Friday race, I'd played a 'no brainer' double finishing in the Mile with Modern Games and starting with Bob Baffert's Cave Rock. I feared the inside drawn Hurricane J as a pace spoiler and, as it turned out, was right to because that one ensured Cave Rock - sent off just less than 1/2 - did a tap more than ideal in chasing the lead. As they entered the straight, up loomed east coast champ Forte to run the jolly down.
Another second and it was starting to smart. At least this time, I picked up a few shekels for the place part on National Treasure, the second of four horses flagged in the 'bet these now' post from a week or so prior. He returned 8/1 and only 1/2 for the 'show' (i.e. to finish 3rd or better).
Finally on the opening day we had the Juvenile Turf, with the raiders bidding for a clean sweep on the sod and me bidding to get things back on track. This time I'd swung at an Appleby - not the only one across the weekend as will become apparent - in the form of progressive Autumn Stakes winner Silver Knott. In my quest for value, I'd merely supplanted big prices on this occasion, with the exception of 8/1 win only on Silver K.
Naturally, he found just a dash of traffic in his daring rail run while Victoria Road charmed himself through the eye of a needle between horses to prevail by a nose. The four remaining plays in the race, three of them over-staked most likely, are currently asking for directions to the jam stick somewhere towards the end of the back straight.
At the end of day one with the UK books I'd staked £586 and returned a skimpy £129.48. Meanwhile, in tote action, I had bought a $500 betting voucher and converted that into $708 by close of play, mainly thanks to a patriotic (of sorts) $20 exacta Victoria Road over Silver Knott; so a little more than £250 down overall on Friday. Far from a drama at this point, and I at least had some betting tokens for day two, as well as an equally healthy looking portfolio for the Saturday.
*
Breeders' Cup Saturday is a goliath of a race day: nine main event races bookended by two or three undercard heats make for an eleven or, as in this case, twelve race card. Even just focusing on the Cup stuff, which was the case for me, is a momentous undertaking. I was up early - everyone needed to be with a first post time of 10.30am - and had scribbled my tote plays into a notebook.
These are them, and I placed them all prior to the first race, something I've never done before and which turned out to be a godsend.
Total stakes were $1173 rather than $965 due to a) backing Cody's Wish for fifty bucks, and b) immediately recycling the return on that on two losers in the FM Turf. Sigh. Anyway, we're getting ahead of ourselves.
Saturday's curtain raiser was the Filly and Mare Sprint, a race in which I've had plenty of success backing bombs down the years and, with a ton of early speed in the pre-entries, I was excited to swing big again. But, when first Letruska and then Hot Peppers - both out and out need the lead types - were scratched, it notably diluted the front end heat. We still had Slammed, Lady Rocket and Echo Zulu, each of which had led or been within half a length at the first call in three of their last four starts, so the bomb play remained viable to some degree.
The whole position hung on a contention that favoured Midnight Olive might i) be over-estimated and ii) burn herself out chasing a too hot tempo. Long story slightly shorter, it just didn't play out that way: the first half went in 22.10, 44.89, which is quick enough; but the speed held up and Olive showed plenty of class to win by daylight.
Tote tickets with big-priced deep closers on top went on the spike. As did my only ante post play, on the sole Japanese runner, Chain Of Love, who, after a taking late rally both in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and in Japan last time, showed absolutely nada here. The other two deep closers - Obligatory and Chi Town Lady - did what they do but always at a respectful distance (respectively 14.5 and 16 lengths off the front at the first call!)
Having projected the opener completely wrong, I then managed to totally overlook Caravel, winner of the Turf Sprint, when doing form previews of 'all' runners. This was a potent combination of embarrassing and annoying, not that she'd have featured highly on my shortlist save for the good looking track and trip win last time out. I certainly wouldn't have played her 'on top', so that's something, I guess.
In the end, as well as ante post plays Arrest Me Red (ran fine, not good enough) and a double kicking off with Golden Pal (dreadfully dull effort), I added a few day of race darts including the Appleby duo and a defensive play on Flotus at about a million to one on the board. Also limped in with a very narrow Pick 4 guess. Limped back out again about 55.77 seconds later - in fairness, so did most other people who probably staked more into that pool than me.
Chazza's Creative Force closed well into third without ever threatening the (pretty impressive) winner; Emaraaty Ana ran another stormer in second and Highfield Princess performed perfectly well in fourth. The $100 US tote chip on her was lost but she was, like most of my tickets, value when comparing available odds.
The Turf Sprint was the only grass race won by the home team all weekend as it transpired, British runners finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in what was still a strong non-winning display.
"System going well, send more money" was the summary at this point. And, in the Dirt Mile, some respite. A lazy, chalky bullseye on story horse Cody's Wish - see below - was a relative shot in the arm to at least stem the flow: nice little cocktail of mixed metaphor there...
There's no doubt Flightline delivered the most powerful racing performance of the weekend. But was there anything better than this?
Cody's Wish was given a measured ride to out-finish the extremely busy and admirably tough Cyberknife who went down fighting. I'd had a good looking investment on late nonner, Laurel River, and my wise guy exacta selections - one of which was the other horse I backed in Britain, Simplification - took the wrong course, or something.
Check out Cody's on the jockey cam
Onwards, as is relentlessly the case through the top class nonet of wagering conundrums (wasn't sure if it should be 'conundra', so googled and discovered a very fun - if utterly nerdy - answer here) on day 2 at BC.
[Aside: Six-eight Friday/Saturday would work so much better, but we don't really need another juvenile race - dirt sprint?! - which would only make it seven-nine in any case; and moving one of the older horse Saturday races would be incongruent, so guess we're staying like this for now]
It was the Filly & Mare Turf next with its host of Euro entries. I was as cool as a refrigerated cucumber on the chances of the Ballydoyle 'T' brace, Tuesday and Toy, but all around the vibes - ah, yes, the vibes - were strong, especially about the Oaks winner. My contention had been she wasn't needing a bigger than quarter mile drop in trip; the counter - made by, clearly, smarter judges than me - was that she was crying out for it. Turned out she was. Luckily for me, one of the shroods was Neil, with whom I'd chewed the form cud for much of the weekend. His bet of the day, I couldn't ignore her, especially at 6/1 in a place.
It is, as they say, far better to be lucky than good. Having been neither heretofore, I borrowed someone else's good for ten minutes and caught some luck.
In point of fact, I'd been good enough to back second-placed In Italian each way at 7/1 - she went off 3/1 - and lucky enough that she made all bar the last fifty yards of the running. But the same tote board tempted me into a rapid release of my Cody coin, first with $100 on Nashwa at 4/1 (her price then proceeded to crash to a little better than 5/2, at which she'd have been no bet) and then $50 Above The Curve who ran no race this time. In the finish, with a $5 exacta returning $110, this was slightly better than a scratch race overall. But, left to my own devices, it would have been a car crash. Jeez.
The middle leg on Saturday, race five, was the Sprint, and the first of two coronations. Or so we/I thought. Jackie's Warrior had been much the best in the division all season, figured to get an easy lead, had had legit excuses (stamina, injury) when failing at odds on the past two Breeders' Cups, and, well, he'd just win, wouldn't he?
One of my learnings from the weekend - which I should already know - is that, when it looks like one horse will get a soft lead, it's information that every rider in the race will be aware of; as such, the chance of such an eventuality diminishes, and the price needs to reflect that scope for something different to play out. 4/5 is not a price that permits much uncertainty at all, and so my third - and, mercifully, final - punchy short odds double was waved adios as the #7 horse, Super Ocho, two boxes inside Jackie's Warrior, dished it up to the champ-elect on the front end through five of the six eighths of a mile. Then along came the big improver this season, Elite Power, with a strong finish to roll on by. JW was sufficiently cooked that the octogenarian (OK, unfair, he's eight, not 80) C Z Warrior also shuffled his Zimmer frame past in the final strides.
This was a hideous bet for me, coupling a non-runner and a pair of shorties both of whom failed to make the place position let alone the win. The first two home were nowhere on my exotics either so, head shaking like a sideways Churchill pooch, we pushed on pronto.
Well into the second half, then, and I've yet to have a winning opinion of my own. I was feeling pretty down in the chops by this point, and I didn't really have anything to cheer in the Mile after Cave Rock had done for my value double with Modern Games. I'd backed Annapolis at 10's because I felt he had to be shorter by the off, and I had some tote action firmly centred on Modern G. I meant to back Ivar but didn't, which would have been annoying assuming the books had paid four places and a relief if they paid three. And I played a bit of Order of Australia and Kinross at his ridiculous US tote price of 9.39/1: I didn't like him at 3/1 back home but this was a bit insulting.
More losers, more self-flagellation and wagering-wise I was in what felt like as big a hole in a couple of days as I'd been since some reckless punting ventures of many moons ago. I'd done about $750 on the tote to this point, but had $250 left of those wagers placed before racing; but my ante post book was in tatters: £1300 staked, £600 returned. Writing that now, it's not nearly as terrible as I'd perceived, but when you're caught up in a really fast-moving moment like Breeders' Cup Saturday lucid thinking can fail even the best of us - and certainly me.
There were three races left and I needed a minor miracle to get out breathing, or so I thought without the benefit of the bean counting in the stanza above. It was the Distaff next, and I'd made a stinky each way play on Malathaat at 3/1 () believing that the eight pre-entries would reduce to seven with one filly claiming first preference elsewhere. If ever a bet deserved to get whacked, it was this one. But, with so many on the spike that arguably deserved better, the perversity of the betting deities was on show yet again.
In the best finish of the meeting - a three-way shootout separated by nostrils - Malathaat just edged Blue Stripe with Clairiere rounding out the podium positions. The winner paid 2.88/1 compared to my 3/1. I mean, I'd take it if you offered me it on every 3/1 ticket struck, but... With a couple of place bob on Clairiere each way at 14/5, too, this felt massive. Again, it felt bigger than it was. Such can be the heightened sensitivity of a marathon punting sesh.
Additionally, I had taken a couple of wimpy Pick 3's starting in the Distaff, rolling through the Turf and ending in the Classic. This is the losing $1 version, and I played a $3 version with the same horses in legs 1 and 2, and the big guy in the Classic.
In fairness, they may have been narrow but they left well touted Nest off the Distaff leg, and that helped. If not yet quite back in the game, it was at least looking a little less like a motorway pile up and veering towards a shattered headlight, to continue with the utterly unsuitable vehicular metaphor.
But then came something approaching divine intervention in the Breeders' Cup Turf. I knew from midsummer I wanted to be with Charlie in anything beyond a mile on the lawns, and I'd seen a quote mid-September that Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance were slated to get on the 'plane. In their final preps, both took the eye in differing ways: Nations battered his rivals at Aqueduct while Rebel's showed a rarely-seen-in-distance-racers turn of pace before flattening (or maybe idling) in a German Group 1; he still won there. Both were 12/1. Well, I went and backed 'em though I wasn't allowed much. Fair enough, I suppose. A week before, I had a bit of a saver on War Like Goddess, and before racing began I'd played boldly in exactas and trifectas with four Euro horses, the Appleby pair as 'A' picks on top.
It went really rather better than anything to that point. And thank crikey for that.
After drawing £720 I was now in front on the ante post book, a scarcely plausible position from just an hour ago. As well as that, I'd cashed a $10 exacta with Rebel's Romance on top of Stone Age, another horse I was against when doing the form but drawn to by 'the vibes'. The exacta paid $69.87 for a dollar, so $698.70 for ten. I'd played some $5 trifectas with Charlie over Aidan/Charlie over Aidan/Charlie. Not quite, but could conceivably have put the Goddess underneath: it came up $175.27 for each 50 cent unit. Woulda coulda shoulda.
Emotions were up and up by now. Some people say you shouldn't get emotional when betting, but not me. I want to be moved by both the action and the outcome. I want to feel good and, yes, I want to feel bad; that's the game: we need the bad beats to give us emotional context for when it goes our way, to elevate the sense of joy, relief, excitement, vindication. That's why we bet. It's why I bet at any rate. Those who use an algo to nick a few quid... well good luck to them but what a soulless existence.
Here's the Rebel, reprising that late gear change and getting me boisterous in the process:
And so to the climax of the meeting, the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a fella named Flightline. I had those two Pick 3's live into the Classic and there's little doubt the dollar versions were going to pay more than the three buck single through the jolly. I did also have a couple of weirdo bits and pieces staked a while back, including a non-runner, a forgotten Ky Derby winner, and some smaller staked each way filth; but I was only rooting for one man here, Flavien Prat, Flightline's jockey.
The race had a clear shape to it - as clear as any race can given the comments made in the Sprint section above - and this one went with the script: Life Is Good, an extremely classy if one-dimensional front end brute, surged on with Flightline tailgating on the snaff. At the top of the stretch, with Irad Ortiz throwing the lot at Life Is Good, Prat asked his lad to lengthen: the verdict was instant.
Flightline bounded away, Life Is Good a fading shape in the rear view mirrors; the gallant trailblazer eventually eased out to fifth place, surpassed in the final quarter by all of Olympiad, Taiba and Rich Strike respectively. The final margin of victory was eight and a quarter lengths, taking Flightline's six-race career aggregate winning margin to 71 lengths! It's just a shame we won't see any more of him as he feels like he's only really getting started.
Epicenter, second betting choice, unfortunately sustained an injury, which has been successfully operated on since and, though he has been retired from racing, the prognosis is good that this super-consistent three-year-old - winner of the Grade 1 Travers and second in two Triple Crown races including the Kentucky Derby - will be able to take up stallion duties in due course.
After the Turf, I was able to watch this almost exclusively as a sporting event rather than a wagering one, and that was just great. I cashed the Pick 3, which didn't pay much ($123) but was a welcome contribution to the bottom line. In terms of that bottom line, buying a voucher and then keeping most winning tickets until the end (I did cash and 're-invest' the Cody chip) makes it easy to track profit and loss. I bought a $500 voucher on Friday, topped it up with $300 before racing on Saturday and didn't pay with 'folding' for a bet thereafter. So the $868 and pennies I cashed the winning tickets in for after the last represented a most improbable - and waffery-thin - positive outcome. Likewise on the UK books P&L:
Having published detailed thoughts on every race here, it was more the ignominy of sending so many geegeez readers inadvertently in the wrong direction that smarted most. Obviously, I bet within my parameters of comfort - though Saturday did take me away from the centre of that zone - but what is never comfortable for me is when I have publicly shared the name of a horse I think is worth betting: it's pressure I can't handle, truth be told. With luck, at least some of you will have found a way to the pay window through the weekend. [Regardless of how the results go, it's always the same - large - amount of labour to work through the form. Sometimes the effort is rewarded, often now. That's how it is, eh?]
I very much hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup show, especially the brilliant performances by the Euro squad - not just the winners but 'we' laid siege to the places as well - and that boyo in the Classic.
Matt
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post script
A few things I learned, or about which I was reminded:
Short-priced horses habitually get beaten at the Breeders' Cup because the races are so deep. Doubling them up doesn't really make sense. [Note to self]
European horses seem to love Keeneland: they're 12/20 in the three Breeders' Cups here, the 6/7 this year bettering 4/7 in 2020 and 2/6 in 2015.
Betting race to race is emotionally challenging. The very best thing I did was to strike the majority of bets before the first. Whilst conceding the chance to scout the prices pre-race, it took emotion out of the thought process (but not the race watching process), leading to more reasoned wagers.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially in pursuit of a late night weekend winner!
**
COMPETITION TIME
I managed to bring a few souvenirs back with me and thought they'd make a nice raffle prize. As they say across the pond, here's what I got...
Click on the image to view full size
- Programmes from both Friday's and Saturday's meetings
- A Daily Racing Form for Friday's card
- Some Kentucky 'horse country' brochures
- A Breeders' Cup lanyard
- A Breeders' Cup tote bag
- Uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline
Plus three runners up prizes of an uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline
To be in with a chance to win, simply go here and enter your name and email. These details will ONLY be used to contact you for postal address if you're a winner. One entry per person. Duplicate entries will be disqualified. Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MischiefMagic_JTS.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-11-08 09:51:262023-09-11 18:32:35Betting the Breeders’ Cup Rollercoaster
This time next week the first five, of fourteen, Breeders' Cup races will be upon us. Friday is juvenile day, with nine older horse Championship races following on Saturday, and the action - both on track and in the betting - will be feverish.
One of the beauties of the Breeders' Cup is the convergence of US and European (and sometimes Japanese and South American) form, and the differences of opinion that British and American bettors have. With that in mind, what follows are four horses that look likely to shorten from their current prices and represent a bit of value a week from now.
Love Reigns (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
Wesley Ward has won this for the past three years and has just a single runner this time around. He puts his faith in Love Reigns, a fast starter who won over course and distance on her debut. She was a fine fourth to re-opposing Dramatised at Royal Ascot but didn't quite see out that demanding straight five with an uphill finish. Since returning to America, she's won again over the turning five and half furlong range in spite of taking a lead to the first turn.
All four winners of the Juvenile Turf Sprint have led all the way and, while she does face a couple of possible pace contenders in The Platinum Queen and Tyler's Tribe, she is likely to be very popular with the American betting public.
The Platinum Queen represents Britain and she's a fast filly, as demonstrated by her win in the Prix de l'Abbaye in receipt of chunks of weight against elders; but she has never raced around a turn before and that's a different ball game. It doesn't mean she can't handle a turn but her current price implies she definitely will. She only definitely might!
8/1 Love Reigns looks on the big side.
National Treasure (Juvenile)
Love him or hate him, Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on the juvenile colt dirt division, and is doubly represented here. He saddles the strong favourite, Cave Rock, who is unbeaten in three and stretched out to this trip for a comfortable five length Grade 1 win last time. And he also saddles the less exposed National Treasure, who chased Cave Rock home in that G1, the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.
There is a good chance that Cave Rock is just much the best, but even then something has to finish second and third, and National Treasure's Beyer speed figure is already the clear second pick in the race. He is entitled to improve on what will only be his third career start and was able to rate the pace set by Cave Rock meaning he's versatile in terms of run style. A horse called Hurricane J is unlikely to trouble the judge but he could be a pace spoiler for the favourite early on, and we don't know how the Baffert beast will cope with early contention: it might weaken his ability in the stretch.
Regardless, National Treasure looks over-priced in an each way context at 12/1 in a place.
Malathaat (Distaff)
Malathaat is only 3/1 but she perhaps deserves to be favourite for the Distaff. She's a dual Grade 1 scorer this season, has the highest speed figure in the field (jointly with Clairiere) and has never been out of the first three in seven tries at the nine furlong trip. She's unbeaten in three at host track Keeneland, including two at the trip, one of which was last time out by more than five lengths in a Grade 1. A half length third in last year's race, she's upped her game a length since then and - if she doesn't get too far back early in what might not be an especially rapidly run race - is the one to beat.
She's available at 3/1 with three places each way with one firm, even though of the eight pre-entries is already stated as having her first preference in another race.
Taiba (Classic)
This could simply be the Flightline show, that unbeaten colt recording some off the scale numbers this season in totally savaging his rivals. And I hope it will be just that, because he might be the best since Secretariat, which is to say the best for fifty years. His win in the Pacific Classic last time was preposterous: it was his first try at the Classic trip of ten furlongs and stamina was supposedly a doubt. He won that Grade 1 by 19 1/4 lengths with the Dubai World Cup winner in second and another seven lengths back to a legit G1 horse in third!
He's an absolute monster but... he has been fragile, as his five race - all carefully spaced apart - career implies. And his trainer, John Sadler, has had some shocking fortune in the Breeders' Cup: having saddled bundles of fancied horses, his sole triumph from 54 BC starters is the 2018 Classic winner, Accelerate. This will be Flightline's second venture outside southern California, an Achilles heel for many of his trainer's Breeders' Cup runners in the past. He was his least assured - though still much the best - on his previous foray out of state, in the Met Mile at Belmont. In fairness, it's unlikely even Sadler's bad ju-ju will stop this lad; but, again, something has to run second and third.
In that context, Taiba, another out of the Baffert barn, looks likely to shorten. A three-year-old unraced at two, Taiba is by rock hard Classic winner Gun Runner, and his sole heavy defeat was in the massive field Kentucky Derby. He was also a head second in the G1 Haskell before stepping forward to win by three lengths in the Penn Derby, a favoured Baffert Classic prep.
His price - 12/1 - is made mainly by Flightline of course, but also by a horse called Life Is Good, a need-the-lead speedball who has only raced beyond nine furlongs once, when failing to get home in the Dubai World Cup at this mile and a quarter range. In fairness, he's tough on the lead but I imagine he will be wilting in the stretch.
Epicenter - conditioned by Gun Runner's trainer, Steve Asmussen - looks more legitimate for the frame. He's a strong stayer and will be unhurried while the fireworks are lit ahead of him; but he cannot fill out second and third spots, and he's more exposed than Taiba (ten lifetime starts vs five). It doesn't look an especially deep Classic beyond those mentioned so, while there's an absolute superstar in there, 12/1 Taiba looks an each way multiple play on a potential shortener.
Good luck.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/gunrunner.jpg431830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-10-28 08:31:442022-10-28 16:24:06Breeders’ Cup 2022: Four to back now
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