It's less than two weeks until the tapes rise on the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and, while the Grade 1 action features the very best British and Irish (as well as a soupcon of French) National Hunt horses, it is the handicaps where the biggest scores are often made.
The potential for a windfall is created by deep fields in terms of both quantity and quality: landing on the right one is usually tough. In what follows, then, I'll attempt to focus the lens on areas of punting potential based on recent history. In plain English, I'll share some stats that might find a winner or two in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps.
As a starting point, my mate Ben Aitken (at Narrowing The Field) has kindly given permission for me to share a subset of the excellent research he's put together in a free guide he calls the 'Cheat Sheet'. You can download the full report (it's short but punchy, not unlike me!) here: Grab Ben's CheltFest Handicap Cheat Sheet >>
Ben's research covers the winners and places at the most recent five Festivals, and I'll use the same period for my contributions. I'll suffix Ben's with (NTF).
Handicap Hurdles
First off, we'll look at the handicap hurdles as a collective, excepting the Fred Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. That leaves the Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe: four races times five years equals 20 handicap hurdle winners and 80 placed horses. Those wins and places were drawn from 478 individual runners.
The first thing to note is that 14 of the 20 winners were trained in Ireland, as were 47 of the placed horses. That majority of both major and minor spoils was accumulated from a minority of the total runners (70% winners, 59% placed horses, from 44% of the runners).
However, the volume of Irish representation has increased notably in just those few years as the chart below illustrates:
In 2018 and 2019, there were 34 and 35 raiders respectively; last year, there were 61. Expect another glut of Irish-trained handicap hurdle challengers in 2023.
Some features of non-juvenile handicap hurdle winners in the past five years are as follows:
- All 20 had had ten or fewer handicap hurdle runs, representing 100% of the winners (and 95% of the placed horses) from 90% of the runners (NTF)
- All 20 (100%) winners - and 91% of the placers - had last run between 18 and 98 days ago, from 87% of the runners. Obviously, those numbers are conveniently precise but a recent run or much more than three months away is not a positive. That said, the places are pretty much in line with numerical representation (NTF)
- 19/20 (95%) had no more than one prior handicap hurdle win, from 77% of the runners. 86% of the placed horses also met this criterion (NTF)
Other notable snippets include:
- 4 of 20 winners (17 placers) were making their handicap debut (20% of the winners, 21% of the places, from 16% of the runners). While 'cap debs have slightly outpunched their numbers, they've been expensive to follow, losing 45.75 points at SP (-59% ROI - ouch!). The four winners included State Man, Galopin Des Champs and Saint Roi, all subsequent G1 winners.
- 9 of 20 winners (33 placers) ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 (or a Grade A or B handicap) last time, out of 140 qualifiers (45% winners, 41% placers, from 29% of the runners). They returned +88 at starting price.
- Focusing only on horses that ran 123 in 'actual' G1 and G2 races last time, they accounted for 5 of 20 winners and 10 placers from just 24 runners. That's 25% of the winners and 12.5% of the placers, from just 5% of the runners. And they were wildly profitable to follow, too: +127 at SP, and each way betting returned +170 for £1 e/w on each - a total that excludes 25/1 and 33/1 6th places, which many bookmakers would have paid down to.
- 13 of 36 female runners have finished in the top five, including four winners. The four winners were good enough for +43 after paying for the 32 'win only' losers. £1 e/w at standard four place terms would have returned £60.25 with 25% of the 36 females hitting the first four. The four fifth placed females included three at 20/1 and one at 25/1.
- Two of the six UK-trained non-novice handicap hurdle winners (Ch'tibello 12/1 and William Henry 28/1) were making their first start after wind surgery from a cohort of 13 runners. The other eleven finished 10th or worse! 🤷♀️
- Only one of the 20 races (5%) was won by a horse aged nine or above, seven placing (9%). 77 (16% of) runners were of that level of maturity.
Handicap Chases
As with the handicap hurdles, there were until recently five handicap chases, one of which was a novice handicap chase. That has been usurped by the Mares' Chase - pause for your own personal interjection here - leaving a quartet comprised of the Ultima, Grand Annual, Kim Muir and Festival Plate. Here are a few handicap chase snippets, some care of (NTF).
There were 409 runners in those 20 handicap chases, no dead heats so 20 winners, and 79 placed horses.
- All 20 had finished top 3 in at least one of their previous three starts, as had 70 of 79 placed horses (100% of the winners, 89% of the placers, from 83% of the runners) (NTF)
- 19/20 had previously run at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level (95% winners, 84% placers, from 74% of the runners) (NTF)
Whereas Irish-trained horses won 14/20 in the handicap hurdle section (excluding Fred Winter), it is UK-trained horses that have won 14/20 in the handicap chase division, including a clean sweep in 2022. The six Irish-trained winners in the last five years were all single figure prices, four of them favourite and four trained by Gordon Elliot (or his in absentia proxy, Denise Foster). Irish-trained horses sent off at a double-figure price were 0/54, just three places, in the 20 races in question. (However, they did enjoy greater success in the five years prior).
Conversely, last year's quartet of UK winners were priced at 10/1, 22/1, 28/1 and 40/1!
Willie Mullins rarely saddles a handicap chaser at the Festival, the eight he has done since 2018 failing to make the frame between them.
Handicap chase win and place rates were almost identical for horses wearing headgear compared with those that were not. Likewise, largely, age was not a factor, though the 11- and 12-year-olds placed a little higher than expectation (and won three times) from 30 runners.
Horses that failed to complete last time, or were beaten 30+ lengths, won twice (10% of the winners) and placed 15 times (19% of placers) from 107 runners (26% of runners). The win component saw a circa 80% negative ROI. Oof.
Conversely, last time out winners, or horses beaten two lengths or less, won eight times and placed 26 times from 116 starters (40% of the winners, 33% of the placers, from 28% of the runners). The 169 point profit (142% ROI) at Betfair SP was due entirely to the magnificent but sadly ill-fated Croco Bay's 179/1 winning exchange return.
*
There are lies, damned lies, and Festival handicap stats, so please consider the above with caution aforethought. Plots, back class, and luck in transit are all notable imponderables in the punting puzzle. The flip side is that, typically, we'll be getting a square price about any horse we identify that hits its mark, win or place.
Good luck,
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/mullins_elliott_fists-1.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-03-02 11:32:582023-03-03 09:40:11A Data Driven Look at Cheltenham Festival Handicaps
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
2.50 Taunton
3.00 Ludlow
4.45 Ludlow
4.55 Clonmel
...and purely based on feature of the day, Instant Expert, I'm going to look at the 3.00 Ludlow, a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles on good ground where the Instant Expert looks like this...
...suggesting a two-way battle between the two at the top of the weights, although Java Point (who won this race last year) would prefer it a little softer. He does however, have a good place record on good ground, so it's not a case of him not acting on it...
...and again it's the top two generating the most interest, so let's look at the card...
Quoi de Neuf and top weight Hidden Heroics both won last time out and the latter is three from four and seeks a hat-trick here, whilst only Flagrant Delitiep is without a win in five. Quoi du Neuf actually won over hurdles last time so, he's a class and 4lbs higher than that win, but Fuji Flight is down a class and Java Point's sixth place finish a month ago was in a Class 1 handicap. He's the only course and distance winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, Quoi de Neuf has won a 2m5½f hurdle contest here, Hidden Heroics won over 3m½f at Exeter whilst Fuji Flight has chase successes at both 2m7½f and 3m1f. Top weight and 'form' horse Hidden Heroics runs for the first time in twelve weeks, but the others have all raced in the last month or so.
HIDDEN HEROICS had two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four over hurdles and is now two from two over fences winning by 23 and 45 lengths over longer trips than this, suggesting an 8lb hike in weight might not anchor him.
JAVA POINT has finished 21311326 in handicap chases so far and the only blot on that run was the unoplaced effort LTO, but that was in a tough £57k Class 1 contest. Has made the frame in a pair of Class 2's this year so far, so this is easier on paper, but he hasn't won in 11 months and is still 2lbs higher than that win on April Fool's Day.
LE CAMELEON is three from eight over fences in the last thirteen months, but since his last win (Warwick, 5 months ago) he fell at Fontwell and was 7th of 12 at Chepstow and last of five at Taunton. Still 1lb higher than that win and now asked to go further than ever before.
FUJI FLIGHT won two on the bounce around this time last year, but that moved his mark from 122 to 132 which held him back for a while, but he took advantage of a ratings drop to 128 to finish 3rd at Uttoxeter recently with a 5lb claimer on his back. No claimer today, but another pound off from the assessor puts him back to his last winning mark, so he'd hope to be competitive.
QUOI DE NEUF has won just one of ten over fences and that was on 9th December 2021, but did win by ten lengths at Ludlow over hurdles just eight days ago ending a run of seven defeats (5 over fences). Now 4lbs higher than that hurdles success and up in class.
FLAGRANT DELITIEP has 3 wins and 4 furher places from 15 over fences, which is reasonable enough, but virtually all his good from comes at Wincanton and over 2m4f-2m5f and since winning at Wincanton a year ago, he has been beaten by 45L, been pulled up and then beaten by 27, 15, 33 and 16 lengths.
Recent pace profiles suggest that the in-form Hidden Heroics might try to win this from the front, whilst Fuji Flight is a confirmed hold-up horse...
...but the leader might not have it all his own way, as only Java Point of the others doesn't have a tendency to take races on early and even when he won this race last year, he raced in snatches. Past similar small field contests here at Ludlow have gone the way of those setting the pace...
...so not entirely great for Java Point and not good at all for Fuji Point.
Summary
There's no getting away from Hidden Heroics. He's in great form, scores well on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race. Yes, he's up 8lbs, but he did win by 45 lengths despite jumping to the right on a left-handed track. They go right handed here, so that might also help. He has to be the one to beat and the only surprise approaching 5pm is that he's not shorter than his current 13/8 price with Bet365.
We're not getting rich backing him at that price, though so we might need an E/W bet or one for forecast/exacta and from the other five, I really don't like Flagrant Delitiep for lots of reasons above and I'm not over enamoured with Le Cameleon, leaving me with three to choose from...
Java Point won this race last year and is running OK this year, he scored well on IE too but might get left for pace and would prefer the ground to be softer. Fuji Flight isn't in the best of form, didn't score too well on IE and as the only hold-up type could have too much to do later in the contest. That said, he gets the trip, he's on a workable mark and is down in class, whilst Quoi de Neuf will be up with the pace, but just doesn't win/place often enough over fences.
There's probably not much between the three and the tentative pick as my runner-up goes to last year's winner Java Point. He just seems to edge the others on all bar pace, but his yard know what's required here and the market know he's proven over track and trip, typified by his 4/1 ticket. I'm not really into backing the top two in the market, but there are times when it's the right thing and I think that's the case here.
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
...have highlighted a handful of trainers in good 30-day form but just one other runner elsewhere...
As you can see, the Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball is absolutely flying right now and he sends three runners to Wincanton, but the racing on Wednesday as whole is pretty poor and I'd be wary of putting too much cash at risk anywhere.
But for this column, the show must go on, so I've just selected a competitive-looking A/W sprint with a few relatively in-form runners competing to land the near-£8,000 prize for the 2.30 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed 6f on standard polytrack...
Expert Agent, Two Desserts, Daytona Lady and Rossmore nation all won last time out, whilst Girlswannahavefun and Talamanca both won two starts ago. the latter also won five starts ago, but Beautiful Sunshine and Muy Muy Guapo are both 4-race maidens, but BS has been a runner-up in three of his four starts. Bottom weight Rossmore Nation is the only class mover, stepping up one grade.
Two Desserts makes a handicap debut and Muy Muy Guapo has a second bite of the cherry. Half of these (Expert Agent, Daytona Lady, Talamanca and Rossmore Nation) have already won over 6f, but none of the field have won here at Lingfield. Mind you, only three have been here and two have made the frame.
Talamanca runs for the first time since mid-October and Expert Agent has had an eight-week break, but the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 40 days with Rossmore Nation's win last Tuesday the most recent of all runs. In addition to our four (3 on A/W) 6f winners, we have four winners on standard going and four Class 5 A/W winners and a couple of runners quite heavily penalised for their LTO wins...
Talamanca looks the most unsuccessful exposed horse there and with a 0 from 6 record on the A/W, you've got to think that this is a pipe-opener after a long break so he can be ready for the Flat season with him being 3 from 3 over 6f on turf. One of the two fillies, Daytona lady looks best on those numbers and I'm not too keen on the three with lines of red. of the five with green, Expert Agent and Rossmore Nation will find this tougher than their LTO wins now that they're up 8lbs and 6lbs respectively and with Rossmore Nation also up in class, he'll need to be on his A-game.
He's drawn in stall 8, which in fairness, doesn't have a great record in such contests...
...but considering it's a short race with a bend, there's not as much of a bias as you might expect and stalls 4 & 5 where you might think would be a good starting point, haven't been great either. If you could cherry pick, you'd want box 2 where Two Desserts will come from. he's also likely to want to get out sharpish, if recent efforts are to be relied upon...
...and those races above have lended themselves to early pace...
...which makes this pace/draw heatmap unsurprisingly lop-sided...
...and with our field's average pace scores overlaid...
...you'd probably want to be on Two Desserts and/or Talamanca.
Summary
Looking back to pace/draw with are so important in these non-straight sprints, it was Two Desserts and Talamanca ho caught the eye, but the latter is coming back from a 133-day absence, hasn't run on the A/W for over six months and his record in this sphere reads no win, two places from six efforts. Two Desserts, on the other hand, is in good form and won last time out. He's unexposed, isn't too harshly treated on handicap debut and should go really well at a big-looking 15/2 with Bet365, ideal for an E/W bet if nothing else.
Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes Expert Agent (who won easily LTO) and Rossmore Nation to be heavily involved. Both are likely to go off sub-5/1 and if running like he did last time, Expert Agent could well be the one to beat, even from an indifferent pace/draw perspective.
It is almost that time! For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham.
In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into. Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed.
My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc. At the end I will delve briefly into Grade 1 contests only. In terms of profit and loss, I am going to use Betfair Starting Price, and take into account commission on potential profits.
Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races
Since 2016 there have been 28 races in total at each year's Cheltenham Festival and that will be the same in 2023: four days with seven races on each day, and a rich variety of different race types and distances.
Market Factors
Let's first examine the results by market price. Although I am quoting profits/losses to BSP, the market price bands I am examining are based on Industry SPs. This is simply because we have more defined prices for this group:
The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%).
Despite these relatively positive figures, there are strong fluctuations year on year as the graph below shows.
As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure. Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss. Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size. However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band.
Performance of Favourites at the Cheltenham Festival (2008-2022)
A look at favourites next. Taking all favourites as a group (clear and joint favourites), they have secured 113 wins from 443 races (SR 25.5%). However, backing all of them would have returned £43.12 less than staked, equating to a loss of nearly 10 pence in the £. Before ‘binning’ favourites as a betting option though, let me share the stats comparing clear favourites with joint favourites:
There is quite a difference here! Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival. AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off.
For favourite fans here are a few profitable angles in relation to clear market leaders:
The best figures come from horses aged 7 to 9: we do need to be careful bracketing runners by age, in case there is back-fitting in play. However, this age bracket of runner is around the optimum age for high level jump racing and much is known about such runners. By that I mean we usually have detailed form lines for runners within this age bracket. Of course there are races at the festival where 7 to 9yos do not take part, but in the races they do, if any clear favourite is in this age band, I believe it demands close scrutiny.
We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well. If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%). The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland.
The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4.
Last Time Out (LTO) performance
Cheltenham Festival Performance by LTO finishing position (2008-2022)
Onto last time out factors now with my initial focus being on where a horse finished in its most recent race:
Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures. As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last day winners. This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.
Earlier I noted that LTO winners that went on to head the market at the festival have proved profitable. What about other areas?
Performance of LTO winners by Gender of Horse
I want to share some gender data with you in terms of the gender of horse. Male LTO winners make up around 90% of all such runners, but female LTO winners have comfortably outperformed their male counterparts at the festival in terms of strike rate:
194 female LTO winners have run at the festival with 31 winning. Not only that, if you had backed all of them ‘blind’ they would have secured you a profit of £116.24 (ROI 59.2%). If sticking to solely mixed sex races (races open to both sexes) the stats, albeit from a small sample, are even more impressive: 13 wins from 69 (SR 18.8%) for a profit of £116.14 (ROI +168.3%). Indeed, looking at the last three festivals (2020, 2021 and 2022) LTO winning female horses running in mixed sex races have won 8 races from just 20 runners!
Performance of LTO winners by LTO Race Class
Time to examine whether the class of race that the horse won last time out makes a difference... and it certainly seems to!
Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £).
LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%). Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £).
Performance of LTO winners by LTO Course
The next question I will try and address is, does the track at which the horse ran LTO make a difference? One might expect that horses that ran at a top track last time would outperform those that didn’t. The table below looks at any course that has sent 75 or more runners next time out to the Cheltenham Festival. I have ordered it by win strike rate:
What immediately resonates is the record of Irish tracks: the top four in the list are all Irish tracks and runners from all four (Thurles, Leopardstown, Naas and Navan) have secured decent profits at the festival to BSP. Irish tracks also take positions 6 and 7, giving them six of the first seven spots in the list. Focusing on those top four courses, here is win strike rate breakdown by 5-year groups:
The last decade has seen a notable uptick in performance which mirrors the type of pattern we saw earlier in terms of the increasing number of Irish runners that have started clear favourite. In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin. Of course, we know about the dominance of Irish winners at recent Festivals but there is still plenty on which to chew in relation to possible value edges.
Before moving on, any system punters out there may want to consider an angle based on last time out runners from these four Irish tracks. It combines some positives we have already noted and is as follows:
LTO run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles
LTO run in Graded / Listed Race
Finished in first three LTO
The results were:
Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.
Sceptics will naturally be highlighting the fact that this system idea is back-fitted, and to a great extent they would be right. However, the rules are simple, logical, and there are not many of them, all of which is positive from a system building perspective.
I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one.
Irish runners versus UK runners
We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. Hence there definitely has been a strong Irish bias.
Below is a breakdown of the records of all UK trainers versus all Irish trainers:
Looking at this, we can the Irish bias in all its glory. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they've enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.
In recent years their stranglehold has got stronger and stronger. Below shows the number of Irish wins by 5-year groups:
These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%. So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. That, obviously, is a potent combination.
Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates.
The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Will they be able to get any closer this year? Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more.
Grade 1 Races
For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).
The betting market comes under the spotlight first.
Market Factors in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races
I have split the prices as I did earlier in the article and here are the Grade 1 only figures:
The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly. Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant.
If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
LTO performance in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races
One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out. Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%). Meanwhile, last day winners have secured 141 wins from 1200 runners (SR 11.8%). They, too, made a loss but nowhere near as severe, at -£50.53 (ROI -4.2%).
LTO Race Class
A look next at race class on their previous start (all Cheltenham Grade 1 runners).
There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect. Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record.
If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest.
LTO course
In terms of the course Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival entries ran at last time, Irish courses have again outperformed UK ones. This time around I have grouped all courses in each country for the comparison:
It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.
Gender of Horse (LTO winners only)
We saw earlier that LTO winners that were female had a better strike rate than males, as well as proving profitable. Focusing on Grade 1 races only, this pattern is replicated once more:
A strike rate of close to 1 in 5 is excellent and female LTO winners have secured a profit in Grade 1 races of £66.94 (ROI +85.8%). Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity.
Irish runners versus UK runners
It is abundantly clear from what we have seen to date that, in general, Irish-trained runners outperform those trained in the UK at the Cheltenham Festival. From the LTO course (by country) figures we can see that this is also the case in Grade 1 races (as most of the runners that ran in Ireland last time are Irish-based). What I would like to share is the number of Irish wins in Grade 1 races broken down by year:
The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more. Indeed, in the last two years we have witnessed double figure victories and, considering there were only 14 Grade 1 races in each of 2021 and 2022, this is mightily impressive (or concerning, if you're a British-based racing administrator, trainer or owner). To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.
Key Takeaways
Before winding down, here are some of the key stats I suggest you keep in mind:
The betting market is a good guide. Clear favourites are reasonable value in all races including Grade 1 contests. Focusing attention on horses priced 6/1 or shorter should give a sporting chance of making a profit. In Grade 1 races avoiding horses priced 14/1 or bigger will usually save you some cash.
Irish runners are likely to outperform their UK counterparts. This is especially probable in Grade 1 races. The trainers Henry de Bromhead, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have good records with favourites.
Female horses have a good record when following up a win last time. This is true even in Grade 1 contests.
A prep run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles has provided good profits over the past 15 years.
Last time out Grade 1 winners are generally decent value.
In Grade 1 races it looks best to avoid horses that finished 5th or worse in their final prep.
Hopefully this article has offered some good general guidance to follow, with the hope that it will find a winner or two along the way. This is my last article before Cheltenham, so good luck, and I'll see you on the other side with some early thoughts for the 2023 flat campaign!
- Dave R
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CheltenhamFestival_JLT_2019.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-02-27 17:08:462023-02-28 14:02:38Cheltenham Festival: The 15 year View
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where the 2.15 Catterick race might worth a second look.
As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
3.15 Catterick
3.45 Catterick
7.00 Southwell
As it happens, that 2.15 race only has three runners, so I'll leave that alone to focus upon the 7.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...
Top weight Alexander James is winless in eight starts but drops two classes to run here and has already scored over course and distance, albeit on his debut almost four years ago on the old polytrack surface. Yard also runs Plastic Paddy here.
Tropez Power won over C&D three starts ago and has made the frame in each of his last two, catching the eye as a fast finisher just failing by three quarters of a length LTO.
Plastic Paddy is the only LTO winner on the field and is raised 4lbs for that win over this trip on Newcastle's Tapeta. He's a five time winner over this trip and should go well again.
Chief's Will has also won over C&D, getting home by a head two starts ago. He was raised 2lbs for that run, but still came within three quarters of a length of catching Plastic Paddy LTO. Has unfortunately been raised 2lbs in defeat, which makes life tougher here.
Soames Forsyte was a runner-up at Southwell LTO, when a head behind Chief's Will here over C&D and he's now 2lbs better off with the winner as he makes a yard debut for his third handler inside a year. He's up in class today and wears a hood for the first time, as he hopes to finally get off the mark at the seventh time of asking.
Candy Warhol makes a handicap debut here just four days after finishing fourth of eight at Wolverhampton, having weakened late on after being headed after 7f. He makes a course debut here and isn't leniently treated off 74.
Mykonos St John is Candy Warhol's stablemate and he also ran just four days ago when last home of nine in a sixteenth successive defeat since winning here over 7f just over a year ago. He's now 4lbs lower than that win, but recent form is appalling (14/15, 7/9, 6/7, 14/14, 9/9) and provides no inspiration.
Bottom weight Local Bay, however, has been going really well, winning here at Southwell in back to back Class 6, 7f handicaps earlier this month, before stepping up a class to run 2nd of 11 (beaten by a head) at Wolverhampton four days ago. He's up in class again, but has been eased a pound by the assessor and whilst this is the toughest race to date, he really is in good nick and has won over this trip on Newcastle's tapeta.
So, we've five course winners and six distance winners, but Instant Expert can tell us more about going, class and weight...
Tropez Power is the clear eye-catcher here with a full line of green with Local Bay looking decent too and I've no real issues with any of them on the going, the two reds are from just two outings each. The field doesn't initially looked to have done too well at Class 4 on the A/W, but Tropez Power is 2 from 5, which is good and aside from Plastic Paddy, who I'll come to shortly, the other six runners have only had ten Class 4 runs, so it's probably too early to say they're all not good enough!
As for Plastic Paddy, yes he's only 1 from 9 at this grade, but his win was last time out and he has made the frame in three of the nine. He also has the worst record here at Southwell but that just strikes me as quirky with him having three wins three further places from eleven tapeta runs including his 0/4 here. It's surely only a matter of time before the penny drops. Trip-wise, Chief's Will is the odd one out with just one win from seven, but that win was here over C&D two starts ago and he was only narrowly defeated LTO.
The tapeta surface here at Southwell is still relatively new, so we don't have hundreds of races worth of data to fall back upon, but what 2022 and 2023 have shown us in terms of draw and pace is...
...that although it's looks like a high draw is most advantageous, you'd probably want to be in the 3 to 7 middle section, but the bias isn't massive at all. You can understand stalls 1 and 2 being slightly worse off with a tight left hand bend, but the emphasis here is on pace/race tactics...
...where it pays to get out quickly and stay out. Leaders win almost as often as mid-division runners and hold-up horses combined, whilst prominent runners make the frame most often. It might be a simple inference, but perhaps it's a case of leaders winning and those chasing staying close to them and filling the places? As for the pace/draw combinations, mid-drawn leaders who can almost cut across the bend fare considerably better than the others...
We can then refer back to our race draw and the fields most recent outings via our pace tab...
As the pace of the race seems to carry more weight than the draw, I'm going to make this a five-horse race, omitting Tropez Power, Soames Forsyte and Mykonos St John. I do like Tropez Power , as he is a decent sort and will win races, but he's up in weight after a defeat and is likely to be one of the back makers, so I've reluctantly ruled him out. Of the remaining five, Alexander James is winless in sixteen and Candy Warhol looks up against it off an opening mark of 74 after four modest outings.
Summary
The three I like best of the field here are Plastic Paddy, Chief's Will and Local Bay. The first two on that list were only separated by 0.75 lengths recently and with Chief's Will better off at the weights now, slightly better drawn and more likely to lead, there's every chance of him reversing those placings. Local Bay is in great form too and should get a good tow into the race from Chief's Will on his immediate inside and we good have a cracking, tight contest.
Any of the three could well win and if pushed, I'd possibly side with Local Bay at 4/1. Plastic Paddy is 7/2 but Chief's Will might have been underestimated by a 6/1 ticket. Sadly that's not long enough for me as an E/W bet and I can't seem to shake off the thought of Tropez Power defying the pace/draw to get up late on.
We make one of the racecards tools free to all each day and on Mondays the freebie is PACE, an often over-looked facet of UK betting, but if you know how horses are likely to approach a race, you've a better chance of working whether they're going to be in with a shout of winning. We log the pace of every horse in every race and we show their last four outings under the pace tab on our racecards. We think pace is so important that we open the pace tab up to all readers for all races not once, but twice a week.
That's right, the pace tab is freely available on Sundays and Mondays, including our daily 'races of the day', which for Monday are...
3.50 Ayr
4.25 Ayr
5.30 Wolverhampton
And I'm going to look at the last of those three, because the pace-map looks like this...
...and I'm going to try and see if attempting to make all is the right approach to winning the 5.30 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap (amateur jockeys) over a left=handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...
Super Den is clearly the 'form' horse here, having won his last two and with three wins/two places from his last five. We've no other LTO winners here, but top weight The Menstone Gem and Dream Harder are both two from five, whilst May Night is the only other runner in the field with a 'recent' win.
We've lots of class movers here, as only four of these (The Menstone Gem, Society Red, Visibilty and Sir Plato) ran at Class 4 LTO. Four (Precision Storm, Dream Harder, May Night and They Don't Know) drop in from Class 3, but Super Den is up a class and bottom-weight Taqwaa is up two from Class 6.
Sir Plato is making a yard debut today, as he runs for the first time since mid-November, but aside from The Memstone Gem's near three month break and the 33 days since Society red's last outing, the other seven have all raced in the last seventeen days with Visibility out as recently as Friday here at Wolverhampton.
He was only 4th of 7 here on Friday, but Visibility is a former course and distance winner, as are Precision Storm, Dream Harder and Society Red. The only other course winner, May Night, scored here over both 7f and 1m½f, whilst elsewhere The Memstone Gem has won over 1,1f at Newmarket and over 1m2f at Newcastle.
Today's free feature is, of course, pace and I'll add some meat shortly to the bones of the pace map I posted at the start, but I wanted to add that Precision Storm, May Night and Super Den have all been denoted as fast finishers. We know how our course, distance and C&D winners, but Instant Expert also gives us the lowdown on going, class and weights v last win...
...where fast-finishing May Night would be a definite eye-catcher on a slightly slower surface, although he has also won on the rarely seen Standard to Fast here at Wolverhampton! Society Red's numbers are pretty consistent and Dream Harder would make even more appeal at Class 5, where he's 3 from 6. I'm concerned about Precision Storm's 1/13 at C4, he's also better a grade lower. Visibility likes it here and gets the trip, but would also suit being a class lower, whilst They Don't Know and Taqwaa are 0/15 and 0/10 respectively on the All-Weather!
Sir Plato is a whopping 12lbs higher than his sole A/W win from six attempts, way back in March 2017 and is still 8lbs higher than his most recent turf win seven starts ago and Society red is now 6lbs lower than his C&D win her a year ago, but has won off today's mark on turf since then. The others are 4-6lbs higher than their own last A/W wins.
And now back to the pace map that we started with, but with runner's names and individual pace scores from their last four outings...
...where it's top weight The Memstone Gem who'll probably attempt to make all from stall 3. To work out whether this is a good or bad tactic, let's consider which pace tactics have worked best here previously, which draw(s) are the best (if any) and how the pace and draw have worked together, starting with past race pace profiles...
...which suggest that those who lead do well, which is good news for The Memstone Gem on the face of it, but the truth is that there's not that much in it, as long as you're not on a hold-up type. The chances of winning or placing do diminish the further back you race, but the differences between leading and running in mid-division are negligible here, so let's see if there's a draw bias to be had from those 160+ races above...
Based on these numbers, the place to be drawn is anywhere from stalls 3 to 7, which would be good news (on paper, at least) for the likes of The Memstone Gem, Precision Storm, Sir Plato, Visibility and Taqwaa, so you'd now be expecting The Memstone Gem fondness of leading allied to his draw to give him a great chance here and the pace/draw heat map says that he is in a really good place to be...
...but a fair distance shy of the success achieved by high-drawn mid-divisional runners and by overlaying this field's draw and recent pace averages, we can see if anyone fits that bill...
...and this suggests a trio of May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know has having the best of it.
Summary
May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know come out best on pace/draw with The Memstone Gem handily placed too. The latter is the likely pace-setter here and his chances of success will rest upon how much daylight he can put between himself and the pack early doors, but he's currently 9/1 with Hills and wouldn't be a terrible E/W option, especially as his form on Tapeta reads 12213.
As for the high-drawn mid-dvisional trio, They Don't Know is least likely to be involved because although he has a 40% place strike rate on the A/W, he's still winless in 15 in this sphere and hasn't made the frame in three tapeta outings. May Night also looks a reasonable E/W bet at 8/1 a fortnight after finishing less than a length and a half further back than Precision Storm over this course and distance at a higher grade. Precision Storm is the 3/1 favourite here, but May Night runs off the same mark as LTO whilst the fav is up 2lbs and there's a good chance of the placings being reversed.
Which leaves us with Super Den, who has been in cracking form on the A/W this winter finishing 13211 and although he's up in trip, class and weight, he certainly looked like having plenty ion hand when scoring by two and a quarter lengths last time out, suggesting a 5lb rise might not yet be enough to anchor him. He's by no means a cert here, but a 4/1 pricetag looks fair if nothing else.
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 5-year course form filter as follows...
...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
1.35 Fairyhouse
1.57 Chepstow
2.05 Lingfield
3.07 Chepstow
5.10 Chelmsford
5.20 Kempton
Jockey Stan Sheppard has a good record on Tom Lacey's horses at Chepstow and they team up in just one handicap on Saturday, a race that also happens to be on the free list. Now, it's a bigger field than I'm generally comfortable with (12 is my usual limit), but let's see how Operation Manna might get on in the 3.07 Chepstow and whether there's also an E/W bet or two to be had from this 15-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap hurdle. The trip should be just over 2m7½f, but a 200 yard rail movement has extended it to 3m½f on good to soft ground that is quicker in places and is being watered to stop it turning "good"...
FORM : Ballybegg, Kings Keeper, Top of the Bill and The Kniphand all won last time out. Operation Manna is three from five and Kings Keeper/Top of the Bill/Take Your Time/The Kniphand are all two from five with the latter on a hat-trick. Surrey Quest/Bells of Peterboro/My Bobby Dazzler/Thanksforthehelp are all winless in five. LTO winner Ballybegg has failed to complete three of five and Southfield Harvest/Take Your Time have two incomplete runs.
CLASS : Bells of Peterboro is down one and Bear Ghylls, Ballybegg, Southfield Harvest, Kings Keeper, Surrey Quest, Take Your Time, My Bobby Dazzler and Thanksforthehelp are all up one class. Top of the Bill, The Kniphand and Operation Manna are all up two classes with just three (Jon Snow, Galileo Silver & Dubrovnik Harry) running at this Class 2 last time.
WHAT'S NEW : Top weight Jon Snow makes a handicap debut on his first start for George Baker, Bear Ghylls is in first-time cheekpieces as are Surrey Quest & Thanksforthehelp (who runs for the first time since wind surgery) whilst Southfield Harvest is blinkered for the first time
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Southfield Harvest (2m bumper) and Operation Manna (2m4f hurdle) are former course winners and Jon Snow, Galileo Silver, Southfield Harvest & The Kniphand have all won over a similar trip to this one whilst Bells of Peterboro, Toip of the Bill and Take Your Time are all former course and distance winners.
LAST RUN : Take Your Time has had a 12-week rest, Top weight Jon Snow has been off nearly five months and it has been eight months since Galileo Silver was last seen. He was in fine form, though when signing off with a run reading 11P2212. The rest of this field have all raced at least once in the last two months, but all have had a fortnight or more to get over their latest effort.
Suitability for expected conditions is quickly and easily shown via Instant Expert...
There's not actually masses of experience of these conditions when all is said and done with Bells of Peterboro's eleven attempts at similar trips the most we've got in any section. Some have, of course, fared better than others and Top of the Bill is probably the eye-catcher on wins to runs. I suspect that many of these will look better if we just considered place form...
...which might help to form an E/W bet later. Weight might be an issue for many of these with seven of them carrying 6-9lbs more than their last win with one at +4lbs and another at +5lbs. Take Your Time, however is now 3lbs lower and represents a yard that won this race in 2021 (& 2016), whilst last year's race was won by the trainer of Top of the Bill and The Kniphand.
Past large field races over this going/course/distance have favoured those brave enough to attempt to set the pace and those keeping handy to the pace have also done well here...
...which based on the more recent efforts from this field...
...suggests we might well have a proper battle on our hands with so many of these preferring to race prominently with only Top of the Bill and out and out hold-up horse.
Summary
The Kniphand looks like the 'form' horse here and he's two from two at the trip, he's going to be up with the pace and despite being raised another 7lbs here for his most recent win, that might not be enough to arrest his progress. He's still unexposed after five starts and there's probably more to come from him. He'd be the one to beat in my book, but 5/1 in a 15-runner race hardly sets the pulse racing.
Of the rest, there are a few that I like the look of ie Dubrovnik Harry, Bells of Peterboro, Galileo Silver, feature horse Operation Manna, Kings Keeper and Top of The Bill. In a race where the bookies are paying four places, I'd not be surprised if the four placers are in those seven I've listed, but I wouldn't back The Kniphand or Operation Manna at just 5/1 and I'd be concerned about Top of the Bill trying to come from the back of the pack, if there was plenty of early pace.
This leaves me with possible E/W bets. I'm not sure which Dubrovnik Harry turns up here, though. If he races prominently, he would be a decent pick at 11's, but he has been held up in two of his last three and I wouldn't want that here. Kings Keeper has never been beyond 2m4.5f and although he stayed on well last time out, he's up in class, trip and 6lbs, so I' want more than 17/2 about him.
And so, almost by default, we're at the 12/1 Bells of Peterboro and the 9/1 Galileo Silver. Both will be up with the pace and both are attractively enough priced for an E/W bet. Bells wasn't disgraced last time out and this former course and distance winner now drops in class. He had a full line of green on the place side of Instant Expert and could well be worth a 12/1 play. The fly in the ointment with Galileo Silver is a 224-day absence, but he was in great form last winter and travels/jumps well. He has finished fourth and second after breaks of 187 & 190 days respectively, so the lay-off might not be an issue and a 9/1 bet might just see a small profit from the race.
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
1.20 Lingfield
3.15 Exeter
4.30 Dundalk
5.15 Warwick
5.45 Wolverhampton
...and as and as Raddon Top's handicap record at Exeter reads 1112 over hurdles followed by 31 over fences, I think we should see if he has any chance of making the frame in Friday's Devon National. That's the 3.15 Exeter on your cards and it's a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed trek of just over 3m6½f on good ground...
Django is our only LTO winner, but featured horse Raddon Top and favori de Sivola both won their penultimate races, whilst Coup de Pinceau and Premier D'Troice won 3 and 5 races back respectively. Copperhead, on the other hand, has failed to make the frame in ten starts over the last three years and only completed five of those runs since a 72-day hat-trick in the winter of 19/20.
Six of these ran at Class 3 on their most recent outing, we have no class droppers, but Samuel Jackson (3rd LTO), Gwencily Berbas/Premier D'Troice/The Macon Lugnatic (all 5th LTO) step up from Class 4. Six of the field have already won at this track, but Gazette Bourgeoise and Django are a combined 0 from 3 here with Premier D'Troice and The Macon Lugnatic making their Exeter debuts.
The only three to have won at this trip have all won over course and distance; Favori de Sivola, Samuel Jackson and Gwencily Berbas, as featured runner Raddon Top has only won here at 2m6f, 2m7½f and 3m½f (over hurdles) and once over fences at 3m and has never raced beyond 3m2f.
Favori de Sivola has had a short six and a half breather since his last run and top weight Coup de Pinceau runs for the first time in almost four months, but the other eight have all been seen in the last four weeks.
We know about course/distance form, but the rest of this field's chasing stats are covered by Instant Expert...
...where Favori de Sivola looks particularly strong. Samuel Jackson's numbers are very good too and Raddon Top only tackled a fence for the first time on New Year's Day. The negatives here are Gwencily Berbas' record at class & going and Premier D'Troice at this level. I mentioned the desperate 3-year form of Copperhead, which explains his 18lbs drop from his last winning mark and it's an even worse tale for Gwencily Berbas who is 1 from 24 since winning at Roscommon in June 2017, whilst The Macon Lugnatic has yet to make the frame in eight starts over fences, so I'll just be looking at these from now...
The ground here at Exeter is quicker than the usual soft/heavy conditions for this race (2013 was the last good ground contest), but that doesn't mean that stamina and race tactics are less important than usual and our pace analyser suggests that those willing to do the hard work upfront do tend to get rewarded...
...BUT if they don't hang on for the win, they end up out of the frame, swallowed up by the prominent pursuers and based on this field's recent outings...
...I'd expect Samuel Jackson and Favori De Sivola to provide the early running with the likes of Gazette Bourgeoise, Coup de Pinceau and Raddon Top ready to pounce. Raddon Top's runs here at Exeter have tended to be more prominent than at other venues and this has proved successful, as he's 4 from 6 with 2 places in handicaps here from a career record of 4 wins from 13. Also worth noting that he's 4 from 8 under today's jockey.
Five of the six left 'in' after Instant expert were the first five on that pace graphic and Django, the odd one out, does tend to run from the back of the field which makes him vulnerable here.
Summary
I think I'll omit Django from the post-Instant Expert half dozen to leave me with half of the field and of the quintet Gazette Bourgeoise and Coup de Pinceau looked the weakest on IE. The latter is more of a placer than a winner and the former is entitled to need a run after another layoff which, almost by default leaves me with featured H4C report horse Raddon Top and the two pacesetters Favori de Sivola and Samuel Jackson.
Raddon Top is the course specialist, of course, but this is almost 6f further than he's ever raced before, but has been in decent form. Samuel Jackson hasn't won any of eight starts since his last win two years ago, but that win was in this race in 2021 and he's 4lbs lighter here and has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst Favori de Sivola is two from three here and won over course and distance two starts ago and I think we might have an interesting contest on our hands.
I completed the above just before 3pm when Samuel Jackson was 8/1 with Bet365, but sadly he's now as short as 9/2 with Stoke's benefactors and my top three are now the three market principals which is more than a tad annoying as the value in advising an E/W bet on Samuel Jackson has now gone. I'm not sure he's quite there to beat Favori de Sivola and with Raddon Top untested/not proven at the trip, my pick of the trio would have to be Favori, who currently (4.15pm) trades at 5/1 with Hills.
Those wanting an E/W play might struggle with six of the ten priced shorter than 8/1!
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
2.05 Sedgefield
2.15 Huntingdon
3.40 Thurles
4.25 Sedgefield
..from which I'm going to look at the 4.25 Sedgefield, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...
None of these managed a win last time out, but both Legendary Day and Start In Front were runners-up and now make a handicap debut over hurdles, as does Bertie's Wish. These three are also the only ones with a recent win to their name and they along with Lord Caprio bring the best form to the table. Plenty of these are running at a different class to LTO with only Bertie's Wish, Start In Front and They Call Me Pete having raced at Class 4 last time and the latter makes just a second handicap start. He'll wear first-time cheekpieces here, whilst it's also Bertie's Wish's first time in a hood.
Of the class movers, top weight and 12 yr old veteran Glimpse of Gold is the only class dropper after failing to complete his at two starts. The rest of the field (Legendary Day, Lord Caprio, North Parade & Golden Town) all step up from Class 5. They Call Me Pete is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one, whilst five of the pack (Legendary Day, Bertie's Wish, Lord Caprio, North Parade & Golden Town) have done it here at Sedgefield.
It's a little over three months since Lord Caprio was seen on a racecourse and Glimpse of Gold hasn't run since New Year's Day, but the others have all been out in the last two to four weeks. So far, my instincts are suggesting I spilt the pack and side with the three handicap debutants plus Lord Caprio, but time will tell. Feature of the Day is, of course, Instant Expert, so let's what that tells us about this field...
And it's a mixed bag, isn't it? The four I was interested in have good numbers off small sample sizes, Glimpse of Gold has a wealth of experience and has won his fair share of races and They Call Me Pete has yet to make the frame in five (1 x NHF, 4 x hrds) starts. North Parade has won here over course and distance almost a year ago, but that was the exception to his normal results and a 1 from 12 record at the trip isn't good at all, nor is the fact that he has failed to complete four of seven runs since the start of 2022.
As for bottom weight and another 12 yo veteran, Golden Town, it doesn't look great at all. Yes, he has made the frame in just a third of his 53 career outings, but he's only won 4 of 47 NH contests and hasn't made the frame in any of his last eleven starts going back to 2nd June 2021, when second at the yard's favoured track, Cartmel. At this point, Golden Town looks the weakest contender despite receiving weight all round.
The pace stats from these runners' most recent outings suggest that my preferred quartet will be spread through the pack...
...as Start In Front likes to do exactly that, but will probably have company early on from Glimpse of Gold and North Parade. Legendary Day is likely to race in midfield with Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio our back markers and the analysis from past contests says that it's not easy to win or even make the frame from the back...
...so that's not ideal for the likes of Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio.
Summary
Quite early on, I felt that the three handicap debutants (Legendary Day, Start In Front and Bertie's Wish) plus Lord Caprio made up the half of the field I'd want to be with. Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio were the weaker pair on Instant Expert and also look troubled by the pace perspective, so I'm going to say their chances are much diminished and if they're battling it out for third place, that would be great.
As for the Legendary Day vs Start In Front conundrum, I don't think there's that much between them, but as Start In Front has a better pace profile for this race, gets nearly a stone from the other and is attractively priced, then an 11/2 bet on Start In Front could be the way forward.
Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.
Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.
In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...
...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see how trainers Henry Daly and Venetia Williams get on again each other in the first of their two duels, as a small but competitive field is assembled for the 3.45 Ludlow, a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (amateur jockeys) over a right handed three miles on good ground...
HEAD TO THE STARS has only won 3 of 22 over fences to date, but that includes 3 from 10 here at Ludlow and more specifically 3 from 8 over course and distance, but hasn't performed well since a runner-up finish here almost a year. He was beaten here by 27 lengths in late March and beaten by 34 lengths at Aintree in mid-May. After a break, he hit the 2nd fence at Aintree and unseated at the third in mid-November and made a bad mistake here almost seven weeks ago and finished th of 6. Conditions will suit him, but he needs to pick his jumping back up.
ONE TRUE KING won a bumper here on debut just over three years ago, won over 2m7f at Market Rasen (hurdles) and over 2m6½f in a Class 3 chase at the same venue last September, but has struggled since, going down by 49, 46, 21 and 21 lengths. His last run was just four days ago in a Class 1 race at Ascot, so he's down two classes here, but possibly still too high in the weights.
THE BIG LENSE ran his best race for some time when a runner-up over 2m4f at Leicester last time out, but since winning over 3m1f at Kilbeggan in July 2021, his record at this kind of trip reads FPP and he has failed to complete five of his last ten outings.
COO STAR SIVOLA certainly isn't the same horse that won the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018 but did run well back at HQ in April 2021, when only a length and a half behind the winner of a Class 2, 3m2f chase. He was then off track for 20 months, during which time he moved yards, but has shown very little in two starts for Venetia Williams, going down by 64 lengths in November and by 35 lengths last month, but down in class and weight here, could he have one more decent run in him?
VOLCANO was a runner-up here over course and distance two starts/nine weeks ago when held off by just a neck well clear of the rest of the field and ran better than the bare result suggests last time out. He was, indeed, only 5th of 13 and beaten by some 16 lengths but was running from 10lbs out of the weightin a Class 1 handicap. He's that 10lbs better off here and down two classes, so could be the one to beat.
SEIGNEUR DES AS has yet to win in the UK after 2 efforts over hurdles and 3 over fences and he was 0 from 8 in France, but ran his best race to date last time out. He was rununing for the first time since a wind op and managed to finish 2nd of 4, denied on the line by a nose when 6lb out of the weights. He's 3lbs out here, but that should hap him be more competitive and another decent effort is expected.
Composite relevant chase form is highlighted by Instant Expert...
...where doubts are raised about Head To The Stars on good ground, as he'd definitely prefer it softer, but is excellent here at Ludlow. The Big Lense hasn't won at the trip yet, but he is 1 from 4 at 3m1f, but is much better at 2m4f and Volcano's record at Class 3 isn't great, but he's too good for Class 4, he's in decent form and will have no issues with the trip.
Small fields can be a bit cagey when it comes to pace, but if they all run as they have been doing of late...
...I'd suggest that Volcano will be the one leading them along with possibly/probably Coo Star Sivola next in line. The rest of the field generally seem content to sit things out until later, but I think such tactics might well play into Volcano's hands...
Summary
I've liked Volcano all the way through the process and there's only his poor record at this grade that could possibly be an issue. That said, he's in great form and is too good for Class 4. Only Hills have priced this up, but he's available at 10/3 and that's fair enough, I think. 11/4 or 3/1 is where I'd have been, so he's the one I'd prefer to be with at the expense of Seigneur D'As who is ready to win, but always seems to find one (or more) just too good on the day.
Mind you, any of these could win here, but the lack of pace amongst the pack might be their undoing, unless one of them is brave is enough to put it to Volcano.
Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!
And this how TS looks this for this Tuesday...
We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...
2.15 Market Rasen
4.15 Market Rasen
6.00 Southwell
The first four races on TS are of obvious interest and from those and the trio of 'free' races, I've decided to focus on the 2.15 Market Rasen, which on paper is the highest rated of the seven, despite only being an 8-runner, Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ mares over a right-handed 2m4½f on good ground, that is softer in places...
My initial thoughts were that this would be pretty competitive with any of five in with a decent shout, but that I wasn't over keen on the top two in the weights (Bon Retour & Could Be trouble) or bottom weight Ravenscar, but I'm not ruling anything out so soon!
Notnowlinda and Windtothelightningboth won last time out, but all bar Could Be Trouble have won at least one of their last three (CBT won seven starts ago). Top weight Bon Retour is the only class mover dropping down a level after a 17 length defeat earlier in the month.
Four of the field (Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda, Let's Go To Vegas & Windtothelightning) make a handicap debut here in a contest where only Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda and Ravenscar have yet to win over a similar trip. Our sole course winner, Let's Go To Vegas scored over 2m5½f on debut in November prior to a runner-up finish next/last time out and all of this field have been seen in the last eight weeks.
Instant Expert shows us the field's performances under similar conditions and it loos promising, albeit off fairly small sample sizes in some cases (two of these have only five races under their belts and two are making just their third starts)...
And those two graphics would lend more confidence to my initial feeling about this being a five-horse race. Of these five, past efforts suggest that Presenting A Queen is the likely pace-maker with Phillapa Sue the hold-up type...
...although Notnowlinda might want to get involved early too. The Pace Analysis of past similar contests suggests that Phillapa Sue is likely to struggle from the back of the field...
...and if we eliminate her from our calculations, we're left with just four of our original eight runners.
Summary
Having halved the field, let's take a quick look at each of the remaining quartet, who are all on handicap debut...
PRESENTING A QUEEN was a winner in each of her first three starts (2 x NHF and a 2m4f hurdle), but has been beaten by 16 and 10 lengths in two efforts since, albeit at 2m7½f and 2m5f. She's down in trip here, which might help, but she carries most weight of the four.
NOTNOWLINDA actually won a three mile Irish PTP before tackling a pair of bumpers, where she was third twice last winter. Since then she has won two of three over hurdles, but both wins were over 2m and her attempt at 2m4f saw her beaten by 24 lengths, but that was at Class 2.
LETS GO TO VEGAS raced in two Irish PTP races last March, falling on debut but finishing second three weeks later prior to an eight month break and a win on her hurdling debut here over course and distance. She ran to a similar standard next/last time out, but was a runner-up at Huntingdon behind an impressive 8/15 favourite from the Skelton yard.
WINDTOTHELIGHTNING also comers here after a PTP runner-up finish and two hurdles runs where she has finished 3rd of 7, beaten by little more than 2 lengths on debut and then an impressive 12 length success at Sedgefield over 2m4f three weeks ago where she stayed on well to go clear late on despite a couple of mistakes. A similar effort and a clear round here puts her in the driving seat.
That's my four in racecard order and I think I've got keener about each one the further down the list I've gone and I've got Windtothelightning edging out Let's Go To Vegas with Notnowlinda battling with Presenting A Queen for the bronze medal. In racecard order, this quartet are best-priced at 6/1, 7/1, 7/2 & 5/2 and I'm not really surprised that Windtothelightning is favourite here. If she stays out of trouble and jumps cleanly she should win. Elsewhere, if either of the two 'outsiders' get much bigger than 7's then they might make for a nice E/W option.
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
3.15 Carlisle
4.45 Lingfield
5.00 Newcastle
...from which I'm heading North East for a quick look at the 5.00 Newcastle, a six-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f on standard tapeta...
VICTORY MARCH has failed to make the frame in three starts this year after winning each of his last three in 2022 and finishing 1212111 in his last seven of that year. That run of form took his mark from 53 to 80 and he now looks too high in the weights to win. He is, however, down in class and has won two of three previous efforts over course and distance.
BUXTED TOO looks the form horse here, finishing 3111 in four starts this year, winning three times at 1m4f/1m4½f after a third over 1m2f. The mniddle of those three wins was here over course and distance and although he's up 3lbs for hi last win, he is down in class and will probably be the one to beat.
GREEN PLANET is a 13-race maiden across five spheres (1 x NHF, 1 x chs, 6 x hrds, 2 x flat and 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced on the Flat for 21 months nor on the A/W for 23 months, but his A/W form does read 223. That said, he really looks up against it here on his yard debut for Jedd O'Keeffe.
CASA LUNA is also a maiden, but after just three unplaced (4th of 9, 3rd of 7 & 3rd of 6) runs on polytrack. She's also making her yard (and handicap) debut here for Philip Kirby off an opening mark of 71, which seems neither generous or onerous if truth be told. She was well beaten over a mile and also over 1m4f, but was only beaten by just over half a length at Chelmsford over 1m2f on her second outing and that might be her trip. Others make a better case here.
TYPEWRITTEN is the third of the trio making starts for new handlers today and she comes here after a pair of placed (2 x 3rd of 10) finishes in Class 5 A/W handicaps over 1m6f and then 2m½f on tapeta at Southwell and Wolverhampton. This grey mare now drops back in trip, but she has raced ten times (3 wins and 3 places) over 1m4f, so that drop shouldn't be an issue and I'd expect her to go well.
JUBILEE GIRL has just six races under her belt and having finished 544 in three runs on turf last summer to acquire a handicap mark of 65, she took six months off prior to an A/W campaign this winter starting with a pipe opener over 1m2f here at Newcastle on Jan 13th. She then won over 1m3f at Southwell eight days later, before going down to the re-opposing Buxted Too here over C&D 13 days later (17 days ago) She was a runner-up that day, beaten by just a length. Jubilee Girl is now 5lbs better than Buxted Too, so there's every chance she could overturn the deficit, especially if she's handily placed late on as she's marked on the card as a fast finisher.
At this point Buxted Too and Jubilee girl seem the pair to focus on and this is backed by Instant Expert, albeit off small amounts of data...
Now these two couldn't be drawn any further apart here, but regular readers of my 'stuff' know that I don't always place huge importance on the draw when you've got a small field over a trip longer than a mile, but there are exceptions to every rule and the stats suggest that a mid-to-high draw here is better than being drawn low...
...which is advantage Buxted Too over Jubilee Girl and if we run those same races above through our Pace Analyser...
...we find that those who have been waited with are the ones to be on and that unsurprisingly the next graphic, the pace/draw heat map, shows a strong bias to mid-t0-high drawn hold up types...
If we the revert back to our draw and our two initially favoured runners, Jubilee Girl's best chance from Stall 1 would appear to come from a prominent running style, whilst wider out, Buxted Too would be advised to tuck in towards the back.
But how do we know how they'll run? Well, sadly, we don't! But because we log every runner's racing style, we can often build up a fairly clear picture of how they might run. We allocate a score of 1 to a hold-up run, 2 denotes mid-division positioning with 3 for a prominent run. Leaders get 4 (surprise, surprise) and here's how the field have raced in their last four (last three for Casa Luna, of course) outings...
...and this suggests that both Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl like to race in a prominent position and that it's Victory March and/or Typewritten who will be the back marker(s). The latter, typewritten was interesting from my write-ups above, when I said I'd expect her to go well and from an ideal Pace/Draw setup, she should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl.
Summary
I've just said that Typewritten should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl and that's exactly how I see it, but to get involved she'll need one of that pair to run poorly. She's currently a 6/1 shot, which isn't quite long enough for my liking as an E/W play when there are only two places paid, because I can't see her beating both of the favoured pair. However, if a 25% profit from the race is enough for you, than a 6/1 E/W bet on Typewritten might suit you.
As for the winner, Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl are best priced at 15/8 and 7/2, but I don't think those odds reflect their respective chances and I'd have expected something closer to 9/4 vs 11/4 when you consider than Jubilee Girl is 5lbs better off than a one length defeat and I think that she would be the value play here at 7/2 with Bet365. (forecasts and reverse forecasts, too?)
Another blustery day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...
...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are set to be...
1.20 Ascot
2.40 Haydock
3.27 Gowran Park
3.50 Haydock
5.30 Newcastle
Neither of my TJC Report runners appear to be in particularly good form, so I'm going to stay relatively close (approx 30 mile SW) from (my) home for a crack at the 3.50 Haydock, a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m4f on good to soft ground...
This looks (on paper, at least) a really open/competitive affair, a thought backed up be the fact that Hills (only book open at 3pm) had the first eleven in the betting split by just 5pts from 5/1 to 10/1! with Courtland the 18/1 outsider and the bottom weight 8 yr old does look the weakest to me too in a field where only Evander and If Not For Dylan won last time out, but the former hasn't raced for 689 days since scoring at Ludlow and the latter is up a class here, as is Garincha, whilst our two other class movers, Golden Whisky & Quid Pro Quo drop one and two classes respectively with the latter making a handicap debut 99 days after his last run where he was last of seven in a Cheltenham Grade 2.
Regarding form, only High Moon (placed in his last two) is without a win in five, although he did win six back almost a year ago. We know that Quid Pro Quo is on handicap debut already, but the card also says that Maypole Class has had wind surgery sometime in the last seven weeks and we're also told that the returning Evander has changed yards, but that's not quite true, it's more of a licencee name change with Josh Guerriero joining Oliver Greenall as joint-trainer during Evander's hiatus.
Garincha is the youngest here at 7yo, some 4 yrs younger than Magic Dancer and they are both among the ten in this race to have already won at a similar trip (Super Six & Courtland being the odd ones out), but only The Paddy Pie is a former Haydock winner, having won and placed in two efforts over course and distance. We know that Quid Pro Quo (99 days) and Evander (689d) have both been off for over three months, but the rest of the field have all raced inside two months, but seem spilt into two date ranges...
17-20 days off : Enzo D'Airy, Super Six, The Paddy Pie, High Moon, If Not For Dylan 48-59 days off : Golden Whisky, Magic Dancer, Maypole Class, Garincha, Courtland
We know that most of these should get the trip but only one has won here (only four have raced here), but Instant Expert can tell us more...
Golden Whisky has struggled in this grade at 1 from 11, but does have a win and a place from four at Class 2. Magic Dancer's 1/13 on good to soft is mainly hurdling form, he has one placed finish from three over fences. Enzo D'Airy is one from three over fences at this trip, but Maypole Class is probably a Class 4 runner. I'm a little surprised at The Paddy Pie's 1 from 9 on good to soft when his record is better on both Good and on Soft, so there's no reason why the ground should be an issue for him.
If we then consider the pace profiles of these runners, based on their last three or four outings, we see at least two definite groups forming, those that want to get on with it early doors and those that don't...
I'm not sure how Courtland will approach this to be honest, he tends to race prominently, but might inadvertently find himself back in mid-division if the six ranked above him all decide to make a go of it. What do I expect is that the ones towards the rear of the field will be the bottom four on that list.
Unfortunately there aren't many similar races to this in the Haydock programme and even with an expanded filter, we don't get much data from a search, but this is what we do see...
...where the out and out leaders (Evander/High Moon, perhaps?) end up getting beaten by those just in behind, which could bode well for The Paddy Pie, Enzo D'Airy, Super Six and Golden Whisky. Hold-up horses have struggled, which suggests a tough day for Quid Pro Quo, Maypole Class and Garincha, but If Not For Dylan won last time out after a change in tactics from hold-up to prominence. That was his first win in seven, since winning from an advanced position at Perth, so I suspect he might have more of a go at it today.
Summary
It could well turn out to be cracking race and it looks super competitive, so the smart advice is to walk away, put the kettle on or grab a beer and just sit and watch it. That said, I know some of you can't/won't do that, so to take the piece to a conclusion, I think I'd want to be with the likes of Enzo D'Airy on form/Instant Expert/pace, Super Six for his consistency and pace profile and also If Not For Dylan on form and possible pace.
These three are currently trading at 5/1, 15/2 and 9/1 with Hills who are paying four places here, so If Not For Dylan might not be a bad E/W bet at 9's.
Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive but have still produced four qualifiers...
Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
1.50 Lingfield
3.20 Lingfield
3.55 Dundalk
4.40 Fakenham
6.00 Dundalk
The second of those 'free' races has a runner from the H4C report, so why do we have a see how Starshiba might get on in the 3.20 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...
We'll start with Starshiba's record at this venue which reads 3113137 including 1137 over course and distance. As for the field as a whole, only Unforgotten won last time out and comes here seeking a hat-trick on just his second start in a handicap. He's only had four runs so far, finishing 2211 including 211 at this track/trip, making him the 'form' horse, but only Farasi Lane is winless in five.
Larado is the only one to have raced at this Class 3 least time around, as sole class-dropper Darwell Lion ran at Class 2, whilst Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion, Farasi Lane, Starshiba and Enough Already all step up from Class 4, but bottom weight Brunel Charm was well beaten in a Kempton Class 5. That was just over four months ago and aside from Darwell Lion's 52-day rest and Lord Rapscallion's run four weeks ago, the rest of the field have all seen action this month already.
Larado has won over 1m½f and Brunel Charm over 7f, but they are a combined 0 from 20 at today's trip, whilst the others have all won at the trip. Brunel Charm has at least won on this track over 7f and Brunel Charm scored over 1m2f, whilst Darwell Lion, Unforgotten and Starshiba, are all course and distance winners as shown here...
...where my early concerns centre around Larado (Going/Distance), Farasi Lane (Weight), Enough Already (Going/Distance) and Brunel Charm (Going/Distance) and their numbers on the place stats do little to inspire confidence either...
And if I was to omit those four from my thoughts for now, I'd be left with runners in stalls 3, 6, 7 & 8, so i'm hoping that if there's a draw bias here, it's in the favour of those drawn highest! There isn't a huge advantage to be gained, but given a choice based on the following stats...
...I'd prefer not to be where Darwell Lion is drawn, although closer inspection shows that stall 3 is actually the best of the low draws and has figures not too dissimilar to those drawn highest...
...so I wouldn't rule him out just yet. And whilst there's little to separate them on the draw off over 450 races, there's certainly a pace bias at play with front-runners doing best of all...
...where the basic/general premise is that the further forward you race, the better the chance you have of making the frame and ultimately going on to win, which based on this field's last four runs will suit Unforgotten more than the others...
Of the four we were looking at, Darwell Lion and Starshiba really look up against it from a hold-up position, but all Starshiba's wins/good form here at Lingfield have come from the back, so it's not impossible, but ideally you're a high drawn front runner...
Summary
After shedding half of the field at the Instant Expert phase, I was left with Darwell Lion, Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion and Starshiba, from which Darwell Lion looks the weakest carrying top weight in poor form and running from the back of the field, so he'll not make my final three.
Of the three, Unforgotten has the best pace/draw profile, he scored well on Instant Expert and brings the best form (2211) to the table and I'd be very surprised if he didn't win this relatively comfortably off a mark just 4lbs higher than his course and distance win a fortnight ago. That was his first run for almost 23 months and it took a while for him to get going, but was quite cosy in the end and should come on for the run. Starshiba was 3.25 lengths further back that day and is now 5lbs better off with the winner, so you'd hope/expect him to get a bit nearer this time.
As for Lord Rapscallion, he steps up in class and up to a mile for the first time, but looks the type who seems to find a bit more when needed as typified by back to back wins by a shorthead at Chelmsford in December, doing all his best work late on. He would seem to be the weaker of this trio, but I wouldn't rule out his chances of making the frame.
Sadly, the bookies are also very keen on Unforgotten and he's just the wrong side of even money with both firms currently open for this race (Hills & Bet365) and both go 15/2 about the other pair. I'd expect more money to come for the fav and that might make bothStarshiba and Lord Rapscallion more attractive as E/W propositions.
Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
2.15 Clonmel
2.45 Newcastle
4.45 Sandown
6.00 Chelmsford
And of the three UK races, the last seems to have more for us in terms of Instant Expert, if not quality. It's the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...
Old-timer Muscika was a winner last time out, as was Thismydream, whilst Magical Max, Bezzas Lad and Jupiter Express were all in the frame. El Hombre won three starts back, ad did Jupiter Express and Bezza's Lad is 212 in his last three, but half of the field (Magical Max, Bang On the Bell, Desert Boots, Mustaffiz and Autumn Flight) are winless on their visible form line.
Both Bang On The Bell and LTO winner Muscika drop in class today, but the bottom four on the card (Jupiter Express, Desert Boots, Mustaffiz and Autumn Flight) are up one grade. All bar Bang On The Bell (2 months off) have raced in the last six weeks with both Desert Boots and Autumn Flight turned back out fairly quickly after just six and three days rest respectively.
Both Muscika and El Hombre are former course and distance winners (the former is 2 from 3 over C&D), whilst Autumn Flight has won here over his preferred 5f, but did win over today's trip at Bath. Magical Max, Bang On The Bell, Bezza's Lad and Desert Boots have also scored elsewhere over today's trip.
So, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) and all bar three with a 6f win, but it's time to check in with feature of the day Instant Expert for the going/class/weight stats...
Autumn Flight is two from six at this track, but it's all over 5f and his going, class and distance stats are very poor. The top half of the field looks the stronger with Muscika probably standing out, but there's a lot of red going on in that graphic, so maybe the IE place stats will yield more for us...
Well, it doesn't really solve the "who to back?" conundrum, but it does highlight Mustaffiz's deficiencies and the depth of Muscika's experience and he has to be a contender dropping in class after an LTO win without a change in his "mark". He made virtually all to win as he does normally other than two starts ago when he was inexplicably tardy in getting going, resulting in his worst run for some time.
One suspects, however, based on the field's recent outings that he won't have it all his own way up front, if the following is anything to go by...
There may well be a battle for the lead early doors, but I'm fairly sure that Desert Boots will sit that out and I'm even more sure that that isn't generally a great tactic here at Chelmsford over 6f, but let's look at facts rather than opinions, courtesy of the Geegeez Pace Analyser...
And this shows that leaders win 1.41 times more often than prominent runners, who in turn win 1.51 times more often than in mid-division who win a staggering 2.56 times more often hold-up horses. Hold-ups are almost 5.5 times less likely to win than leaders and whilst that gap isn't as wide on the place results, leaders still make the frame more often than the others and this inferred pace bias is far more important than the draw here, as shown by the Draw Analyser...
...which is pretty inconclusive, but the pace/draw heat map is centred around leaders with any running style and high drawn prominence...
Summary
Working backwards from that pace/draw heat map and the pace stats, I want to be working with the four most likely to contest the lead ie Jupiter Express, Thismydream, Muscika and Bezza's Lad, but adding Magical Max to the mix. He's drawn high and likes to race prominently.
If I'm working with this half of the field, I think Magical Max and Thismydream would be the weaker picks, Thismydream did indeed win LTO, but it was a Novice event and his first ever win coming at the 23rd attempt and he's now 4lb higher than his last handicap run where he was only fourth of seven. Magical Max is on a 10-race losing run, since scoring on his First two career outings and although second on his A/W debut over this course and distance six weeks ago, he's inexperienced in this sphere and the loss of his claimer jockey effectively makes him 3lbs worse off than a defeat to El Hombre.
Which leaves us with the 3/1 fav Jupiter Express, 6/1 shot and Bezza's Lad and my preference the 4/1 Muscika. All have a great chance of winning this and all look suited by the pace profile required here, but Muscika caught the eye in Instant Expert, comes here in form and escapes a penalty for an LTO win, thus possibly offering the best value for money of the trio.
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