Racing Insights, Thursday 01/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.55 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Roscommon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen
  • 5.50 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Fairyhouse
  • 6.50 Carlisle

If truth be told, I don't particularly like any of the 'free' races, so I'm going off piste by looking at the highest rated flat race of the day, the 4.20 Ripon, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Both Pisanello and Cockalorum won last time out and all bar Society Red and Baryshnikov have won at least one of their last six outings, although the latter ran really well to fin.sh third recently in a race we covered in this column. In his favour here, is that he's down in class, as is top weight Imperial Sands, but Cockalorum, Nigwa, Tarbaan and Society Red all step up in grade.

Cockalorum has been off the track the longest, but 42 days is hardly an eternity and shouldn't affect his running here. All bar Imperial Sands, Pisanello and Tarbaan have already scored over course and distance, but the latter has at least won at today's trip, whilst Instant Expert says that all bar Imperial Sands have won on good ground and that only half of the field have scored at Class 3...

...and the inference from above is that we should be focusing our efforts on this group...

...although Cockalorum's 0 from 9 at this grade is a concern, as is Pisanello's 0 from 4 at the trip. That concern re: Pisanello isn't really alleviated by place form either...

...but I won't rule him nor Cockalorum out at this stage. My five runners are spread across the stalls from box 1 to 7 for a track/trip that hasn't really suited those drawn highest...

...whilst the winners of those races above have tended to be those up with the pace...

So, the draw hasn't been too kind to Cockalorum/Nigwa there, but what about the pace? Are any of our five willing to set the fractions here? Well, we can only guess / make a reasoned assumption and to do this, we can look at the field's most recent four races...

...and that's better news for Cockalorum, but not great for Baryshnikov or Pisanello.

Summary

I shortlisted five and none really tick all the boxes for me here. In draw order...

Pisanello is up in class and weight and might get outpaced early on.

Baryshnikov might leave himself too much to do as he did earlier this week, but he did run well when he got going and is now down in class.

Tarbaan is neither here nor there on the above, but looks less exposed under these conditions, will like the ground and the trip and gets weight from most of his rivals. Mid draw & mid-pace, probably more a placer than a winner.

Cockalorum has a poor record at Class 3 and doesn't have the best draw and although he won last time out, is now up in class and weight

Nigwa is second on the shortlist's pace chart, but all three discarded horses will probably be ahead of him in the early stages, he has the worst of the draw of my shortlisted five and if he runs like he did last time, will have to pass most of the field to win.

Honestly, any of the five could win this. Its not a great race, but it's an evenly-matched open contest that even the three discards could run well in.

Do I want to back any of these to win? No, but if I wanted to put a couple of quid down for an interest, I think I'd back Tarbaan at 11/1 E/W and if pushed I'd say Baryshnikov or Pisanello, but without any real conviction.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Vitralite is of the most immediate interest, whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Brighton
  • 6.25 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 7.00 Ballinrobe
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

I suspect Vitralite will be very popular based on those Shortlist scores, but that might make him shorter than he should be and it might also up the door for some reasonably priced E/W bets in the 8.25 Nottingham, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on show here, but Vitralite is 113 in his last three outings. Eleven eleven won four starts ago, but the rest of the field are winless in five or more. Vitralite is, however, up in class here, as are Bobby Dassler, Eleven eleven, Pysanka, Long Call and Back from Dubai. The last of those stepping up in class is also making a debut for a new yard, as is Tipperary Moon.

Pysanka is running in a handicap for the second time and now wears a visor for the first time, as he seeks a first win. Fellow 4 yr old Marayel is the only class dropper after finishing third last time out, but that was 113 days ago and only Pysanka (131 days) has been off the track longer. The other nine have all raced in the last five weeks.

No previous course winners on display, but Vitralite, Under Fox, Eleven Eleven and Back from Dubai have all won at a similar trip, whilst Instant Expert backs this up and then tells us that there's not much winning form at either going nor class!

...and that we might need to consult place form in the hope of some positivity...

That's a little better but not great, fingers crossed that draw & pace can help us more!

Or perhaps not, for although those drawn highest haven't done brilliantly in similar races, there's not a massive draw bias here...

...as for pace, those races above have favoured those setting the pace...

...which based on recent outings might be good news for Bobby Dassler and possibly Back from Dubai...

...but there's not really much pace in the race.

Summary

This hasn't taken long, has it? Sadly, it's a far poorer race than I thought it might be and there's no mileage in wasting too much time on mediocrity.

Vitralite is probably the least poor runner in the race, so would be favourite almost by default, but he's 8lbs higher than his last win two starts ago and 4lbs higher than when beaten last time out at a lower class, so whilst he may well be the winner, I'm not backing him at 7/4. That's too short for me, but you make your own decisions about that.

He's the form horse albeit at Class 6, Instant Expert didn't help us, nor did the draw, but pace pointed towards Bobby Dassler and Back from Dubai. Bobby Dassler is probably the main threat to Vitralite, but as the 5/1 second favourite, he's too short for me to go E/W. As for Back from Dubai, he'd be an unlikely winner, but is surely better than the eighth place finish on his last run for Roy Bowring. If Kevin Frost can get him running anywhere like he was at nearby Southwell over the winter and you've got an active Paddy Power account, then 14/1 E/W with 4 places might not be the worst bet you've ever made, but the smart money is here is the money you leave in your pocket and walk away.

It's more than fine to consider a race and then not have a bet, in fact we positively encourage it here at Geegeez.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.30 Leicester
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.00 Redcar
  • 4.25 Huntingdon
  • 4.30 Ballinrobe

...the best of which looks like being the 4.00 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think that it's a fairly tight call between five runners, but let's make out own mind up about a field that has two LTO winners in the shape of City Streak (the form horse here) and Pillar of Hope, whilst of their rivals only Cap Francais, Baryshnikov and bottom weight Highwaygrey are winless in at least five.

War In Heaven and City Streak both step up a class here, but Pillar of Hope and Highwaygrey and up two classes here, which can't be good for the latter on a losing run. Conversely, Oviedo is our sole 3yr old and sole class dropper; he's also on handicap debut here. His opening mark of 97 is probably fair, but the 14lb weight allowance should be more than useful here.

All bar Cap Francais, War In Heaven and Oviedo have already won at this trip, but only Pillar of Hope has a Redcar victory on his CV after winning over course and distance last September.

Eight of the nine runner hve already raced this season (inside 52 days), but it's possible that Kitsune Power might be in need of a run after an eight month break since trailing home last of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.

Elsewhere, according to Instant Expert, six of the field have already scored on good to firm ground and three are former Class 2 winners...

Baryshnikov looks vulnerable on good to firm ground, whilst Cap Francais' best work has been at Classes 3 & 4. Even before we look at place form, I prefer the look of others, especially with Cap's 0 from 6 return at the trip. The returning Kitsune Power is 6lbs higher than his last win and he floundered off this mark last time out.

Now for the place stats...

...which also do little for bottomweight Highwaygrey and I think I'm going to need persuasion on pace and draw to look twice at him, Baryshnikov, Cap Francais or Kitsune Power. Which brings us neatly to the draw and having looked at past similar contests, I'm not convinced that the draw alone could make or break a runner's chances...

.and that it is the following pace data that should define a contest here at Redcar...

Leader win more often (2.5 times the expected) and make the frame more often than the other three running styles. Prominent runners just about achieve par score, but anything further back in the pack is going to struggle. Cue 'feature of the day' the racecard pace tab...

...which suggests the pace in the race is going to come from the inside four stalls, particularly from War In Heaven.

Summary

War In Heaven is sure to try and win this from the front, but he's on a mark that's too high for him, he hasn't raced on turf since last September (10 starts ago) and has yet to win on the Flat and I doubt he's winning here. Next off the rank for pace is likely to be Pillar of Hope, who comes here in good nick and is only up 2lbs for a win last time out. That would normally stand him in good stead, but he did only win by a head and it was down at Class 4. His yard/jockey won this race last year, but they might have to settle for the places here.

Which brings us to City Streak, the form horse who has eight successive top 3 finishes over the last year and three weeks, including two wins from the last five and impressed last time out by managing to win at Chester, not only from stall 8 but also from a poor field position and I have to agree with the market, who have him as the 7/2 favourite to win. He'd be my pick here.

Pillar of Hope (above) has a great chance of making the frame, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me and I see challenges coming for him from the likes of Turntable and Oviedo with that weight allowance. The bookies have spotted Oviedo and have him at 4/1, so no E/W bet for me there either, but both Bet365 & 888Sport have Turntable at 11/1 and he might just be the E/W punt here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 York
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 3.55 Cartmel
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 4.40 Chester

So, I've seven races from the TJC report and six 'free' ones and no duplicates! In whuich case, I'll bow to class and go with the highest rated race of that baker's dozen and have a look at the the 3.30 Haydock, a 14-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here's how they line up...

Surprisingly for a Group 2 race, only one runner, Happy Romance, was a winner last time out, but Annaf is 3 from 5, Live In The Dream's last three results were 112, Mibaahy is 3 from 5, Raasel is 2 from 6, Royal Aclaim is 3 from 5, Sandbeck is 2 from 5 and 3 from 7, The Platinum Queen is 2 from 4 and 3 from 6 , whilst Dramatised is 2 from 3 and I think I already want to narrow the field down to this more manageable group of runners, as follows...

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher, Sandbeck wears cheekpieces for just the second time and The Platinum Queen runs for Roger Varian for the first time since leaving Richard Fahey. All nine runners have won over this trip at least once before with both Raasel and Sandbeck scoring over course and dsitance.

Five of the nine have already had a run in the last five weeks, but it's a seasonal re-appearance for The Platinum Queen, Dramatised, Mitbaahy and Royal Aclaim, who have been off the track for 204, 204, 237 and 258 days respectively. Raasel is the oldest of this group at 6yrs of age, whilst The Platinum Queen and Dramatised are both 3 yr olds.

Instant Expert tells me that six of the nine have won on good to firm ground already and that five are previous Class 1 winners on turf. We also see that aside from the course and distance winners, two others have been to Haydock before and that Annaf's previous success over 5f wasn't on grass...

With one win and six unplaced efforts from seven runs on good to firm, I fear this might be too quick for Happy Romance, whose best form is on good/good to soft ground. Mitbaahy has at least made the frame in two of three defeats on this going. As for class, Annaf is unplaced in both C1 outings and Sandbeck is unplaced in all three and this is shown in the place stats as follows...

And at this point, I'm now discarding Annaf, Happy Romance and Sandbeck to leave me with the following in draw order...

I actually think that any of these are more than capable of making the frame here and with most bookies paying four places (Sky pay 5, of course!), I'm hoping to find an E/W bet or two from this group, odds permitting. I've re-arranged the half dozen into draw order, in case past similar contests here at Haydock have favoured a particular part of the draw, so let's check. I opened up the field size and the going parameters to give me more data to work with, but in these, as expected, there's no huge draw bias in a straight 5f here...

...which means that pace may well hold the key as it often does in these sprints. This is how this group have raced in their last four outings...

...and if repeated here, I'd expect The Platinum Queen and Live In The Dream to be contesting things from the start with the likes of Mitbaahy being waited with. If we then look at those races I used for the draw stats, you'll see that Mitbaahy's approach might not be the best here, as hold-up horses fare considerably worse than the other three racing styles...

And at this point, I'd probably omit Mitbaahy from my thoughts.

Summary

I've fairly crudely reduced a 14-runner field quickly down to five that I think could make the frame. I'm not really comfortable with large fields and this is my usual MO in these cases. I'm well aware that I may well have overlooked a winner or placer in the process, but you choose your method in this game!

It's only at this point that I look at the market and this is what I see...

The Platinum Queen 4/1
Dramatised
Royal Aclaim 13/2
Live In the Dream 13/2
Raasel 14/1

Sadly, I've got four of the top five in the market (I've only missed Twilight Calls), but Raasel is interesting at 14's. He won a Listed race here over course and distance this time last year and followed it up with a group 3 success at Sandown five weeks later before coming within a neck of landing the Gr2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in late July. He wasn't in the frame in two subsequent Gr1 contests as he closed out his season.

He didn't run on turf again until earlier this month when a decent fourth of fourteen in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and there's every chance he could match or better that result here, so I'm on at 14/1 E/W with Bet365.

As for the winner, I think it might come down to the two longer-priced runners Royal Aclaim and Live In the Dream. The latter will be tough to catch if away sharply and almost stole the palace House from the front on ground that might have been a little soft for him, whilst Royal Aclaim caught the eye as a 3yr old, especially when winning a Listed race at York and if she's race ready, then she's unexposed and might surprise a few of these.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 7.15 Limerick
  • 8.25 Pontefract
  • 8.30 Curragh
  • 8.40 Worcester

...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...

It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.

The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.

Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.

Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.

Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...

Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.

Overall place form looks like this...

and taking flat races in isolation...

From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...

...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...

...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...

...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...

Summary

I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.

Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.

All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.

The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.

No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.

Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.50 Wolverhampton
  • 5.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Limerick
  • 7.42 Sandown
  • 8.52 Chelmsford

The Sandown race is the only UK flat race on that list and it's also by far the highest rated. Sadly it is a small field and the bookies already think that it's a two-horse race at best including a pretty short favourite, but they're not always right, are they? I'm not saying that I won't end up agreeing with them, but if one of the two market leaders falter, then there's the chance of a decent-priced E/W placer in the 7.42 Sandown, a six-runner, Group 3, 4yo+ Flat contest over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

CASH has only raced four times to date and was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance in the Gr3 Classic trial 13 months ago. Came back from a five month break three weeks ago to run second in an Ascot Listed race, three quarters of a length behind Chindit, who was then second in last weekend's Gr1 Lockinge.

CHICHESTER won a Class 2 race at Newcastle back in January and has been a runner-up in two races since. He looks a useful performer at that level, but this is big step up in quality, although he has won over this trip.

CLAYMORE had a good 21/22 campaign, winning at Class 4 on debut and then was a runner-up and a winner at Group 3 in April/June of last year, before only managing to finish 4th of 5 in the group 2 York Stakes ten months ago. He hasn't raced since then and may well need the run. His win in Ascot's Hampton Court Stakes was over today's trip, though.

DESERT CROWN comes here having won all three career starts. He landed a Class 4 maiden at Nottingham on his only run as a 2yr old, before landing the Gr2 Dante and the Epsom Derby last season. I don't personally think last year's Derby has worked out well for subsequent winners, but if this one is ready to go first up after virtually a year off, then he's likely to be the one to catch.

HUKUM was also last seen landing a Group 1 prize at Epsom back in June 2022, as he came home almost 4.5 lengths clear in the Coronation Cup. He's a fabulous horse who has won 8 of his last 12 starts, but has had a serious leg injury and might well find 1m2f a bit sharp here, with most of his best form coming at 1m4f to 1m6f

SOLID STONE won back to back Group 3 contests in August/September 2021 before a 230-day break. He came off that break to win first time out in the Gr2 Huxley Stakes at Chester just over a year ago, but failed to kick on in three races since and may well need a run after another break. This trainer/jockey combo won this race last season, but stablemate Desert Crown must be the yard number 1 here, even if Solid Stone is the only former course winner on display.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert and it adds the following those details above...

Whilst that doesn't necessarily provide us with a winner, it does give me added confidence when I say that this shouldn't be Chichester's day. He has only won 2 of 19 on turf and both were on quicker ground than this, he probably wants a shorter trip too. Cash also has a fair swathe of red, but off just 1 or 2 races, I'll not write him off just yet.

With a small field over a non-sprint trip, I wouldn't expect any real draw bias here and whilst the stats might initially look like high draws have the best of it, the raw data tells another story in my eyes...

We're looking at six runners, so I'd take the data for stalls 6 & 7 as one entity with a win ratio of 17.39% and a place return of 30.43%, which would suggest that there's not a great deal of difference is the stats for stalls 1, 3, 4 and 6. In such cases, we have to treat the figures for stalls 2 and 5 to be anomalous, as there's no plausible reason for it being down to the draw. The race could however, hinge on how the race unfolds and based on the field's most recent outings...

...I'd say that Claymore is our likely leader with Solid Stone and Hukum the ones to chase him early. All eyes will be on Desert Crown, who will probably let that trio have a scrap early doors before attempting to put the race to bed later on. Cash and Chichester look like being waited with and the last two winners of this race both came from a hold-up position.

Summary

It's hard to see Desert Crown not winning here, based on his short career so far. The only potential problem is the fact that he hasn't raced for some considerable time. That said three of his rivals are also coming off a break. My pockets aren't deep enough, however to back him at best-price 4/7 to make it worth my while, so no win bet for me.

Of the rest, I think Hukum is the best horse, but I'm not keen on him here after a lengthy absence whilst quite seriously injured. The trip is probably too short for him and I think that 7/2 is far too skinny. I hope I'm wrong and that he goes well, because I do like him, but can't take him at those odds.

I've already ruled Chichester out, Solid Stone disappointed in his last three unplaced runs, so it's the front-running Claymore or hold-up type Cash from here. Claymore might well do too much up front in the early could end up feeling the effects of a ten-month break, but Cash has raced recently, is in good form and will be held-up like the last two winners. He's also likely to get towed into the race by Desert Crown, so I'm going Cash at 8/1 E/W plus the forecast with Desert Crown.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 2.20 Ayr
  • 3.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.50 Warwick
  • 7.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated runners based on short-term trainer form for me to consider...

...and of the five 'free' races and the three TS report races, Glorious Zoff runs in the highest rated, the 3.50 Warwick, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Disappointingly for a twelve-runner Class 3 field, only bottom weight Izayte won last time out, but Sea The Clouds has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four outings. Chaos Control won two starts ago, Postmark won three back and Hurricane Ali ago. The other seven runners are winless in five or more runs.

Only four of these raced at this level last time with plenty moving class here. Hurricane Ail & Chaos Control are both down two classes after runs at Class 1 (hcp) and Grade 1 respectively, whilst Glorious Zoff drops down from Class 2. We also have five runners stepping up from Class 4; Mascat, Sea The Clouds, Coolnaugh Haze, Postmark and Izayte.

Glorious Zoff runs for the first time since wind surgery and it's handicap debut day for both Chaos Control and Postmark, whilst it's Sea The Clouds second attempt at landing a handicap. Mascat has been off track the longest at 195 days during which he left Joe Tizzard's yard for new handler Syd Hosie. Two others, For Pleasure (114d) and Sea The Clouds (184d), are also coming off lengthy breaks to challenge those who have already been in action since the start of April.

Glorious Zoff and top weight J'ai Froid are the only two yet to win at a similar trip to this one, but the latter is at least one of just two former Warwick winners, having scored here in a Class 3 handciap hurdle over 3m2f on soft ground back in March 2021. The only track winner is bottom weight Izayte who won here over course and distance three weeks ago off 6lbs and one class lower than today to get off the mark at the eighth time of asking.

Instant Expert adds to those stats by informing us of four previous Class 3 NH winners and also tells us that four of this field have yet to win on good ground...

For Pleasure actually won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2020, before making the frame in a Grade 1 at the 2021 Cheltenham festival, but has been in steady decline since, as shown by the fact that he's now some 21lbs lower than his last winning mark. Most of this field have handled good ground well enough, but Glorious Zoff is 0 from 5, the same as Coolnaugh Haze's record at Class 3. For Pleasure has failed to make the frame in three visits to Warwick and has a really poor record at this trip.

Finest View has some good numbers despite not winning for a year, but there's not much winning form on offer here. Hopefully the place stats will tell us more...

There's definitely a bit more consistency there, but Glorious Zoff is still poor on good ground and For Pleasure doesn't like the trip, but overall the ones who look best from a placing perspective are...

...not withstanding the fact that Mascat hasn't raced for over six months and is still 8lbs higher than his last win seven starts ago. His record over hurdles, however, reads 13812 and according to recent outings, I'd not be surprised if he wasn't setting the tempo of the race from the front here with natural front-runner For Pleasure...

...and leaders have an excellent win record here over this going, course and distance...

...whilst prominent runners also have a great chance of running on for a place, which is good news for Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

Summary

The four that I'm most interested in here are Mascat, Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze. And I think Chaos Control is the most likely to succeed. He wasn't disgraced at all when 6th of 11 in the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree last month and did win by 22 lengths at Market Rasen two starts ago. He looks like he might well be leniently treated here off an opening mark of 123.

The other trio are all more than capable of making the frame and with most bookies paying four places, they'd certainly be of interest from an E/W perspective. Sadly no odds were available at 4pm, so I had to revisit the piece later to check prices. Chaos Control was never long enough for me to go E/W, but I took 4-place E/W options about Mascat, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would all be worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 3.23 Brighton
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton
  • 4.30 Huntingdon
  • 7.50 Hexham
  • 8.20 Hexham

It's not often that we get a horse scoring 15 on TS featuring in one of our 'free' races, but they've aligned here and whilst it's not the best race we'll ever look at, we really should look at Major Gatsby and the 3.23 Brighton,  an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good firm ground...

It's not unusual for a Class 6 field to contain no LTO winners and that's sadly the case here, but Fieldsman was a runner-up just 11 days ago, whilst both Mount Mogan and Amathus both finished third most recently inside the last three weeks. As for 'recent' wins, only joint top weight King of War, Shalfa and Diamond Cottage have scored in their last five outings.

Only River Wharfe, Fieldsman, Diamond Cottage and Sir Sedric raced (and were beaten, of course) at this lowly grade last time out, as the other seven all drop down from Class 5 and for bottom weight Dazzerling, this is is his first run for Phil McEntee, having left Laura Mongan's yard in the last three weeks. He also wears a hood for the first time, whilst Spirit Warning is in first-time blinkers and Sir Sedric will wear cheekpieces for the first time. In fact only Fieldsman runs with no headgear/equipment at all!

Whilst Major Gatsby was our featured runner from The Shortlist, he's not the only former course and distance winner on display here. As it happens, only Mount Mogan, Spirit Warning, Sir Sedric and Dazzerling have yet to win over this track and trip, but all bar Dazzerling have at least scored over 7f elsewhere.

We've a big spread of age/weight here today as the 11yr old Fieldsman takes on four 4 yr olds (top three in the weights and the bottom weight) in a field where King of War and Major Gatsby are rated some 18lbs better than Dazzerling.

Major Gatsby, however, might well need a run after a break of almost 20 weeks as he now tackles a group of horses where most of them have raced in the last four weeks, apart from Sir Sedric and Spirit Warning who return from absences of 101 and 354 days respectively and the latter could certainly be excused for a bit of rustiness.

More stats are available to us when we click the Instant Expert tab, such as seven past good to firm winners and one tackling the going for the first time as well as seven (not the same seven!) Class 6 winners. We also have one Class 2 winner, three at Class 3, three at Class 4 and six Class 5 winners...

...and in a pretty open but fairly mediocre contest, it is indeed Major Gatsby who catches the eye on the win stats, but without any real standout star above, we might need the place stats to help us whittle the field down...

and fragmented by column...

If we hen applied the green = 3pts and amber = 1pt rule from the Shortlist criteria, then we'd have Dazzling and Shalfa on a maximum of 12pts, followed by King of War on 10pts. next best on the list would then be Fieldsman, Major Gatsby and River Wharfe each with 8pts and having featured on all four columns. I think that these are the ones to focus on now. This half dozen are drawn no higher than stall 9 (2, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9) with most of them in the higher half of the draw over a course and distance  where the draw stats wouldn't necessarily be enough to rule any of them out...

...although stall 6 (Fieldsman) seems an anomaly with such a poor return. The key to winning at Brighton has often been about getting your nose in front and staying there...

...with leaders almost twice as likely as prominent/hold-up types to win. Again, I'd be wary of suggesting mid-division horses can't win, but their record is pretty poor from both a win and place perspective and I'd want my runner to be in the forward half of the field, which is where you're likely to find Shalfa and Fieldsman...

and my shortlisted six from pace/draw combined...

Summary

I narrowed the field down to six and then based initially on pace and then by the pace/draw combination, I think that I'd want Shalfa, Fieldsman and King of War as my three for the frame in a very open-looking race. I could easily have the first three home, but I could also have none in the frame and as such, it's case of keeping stakes very low.

My three are relatively generously priced at 8/1, 5/1 and 16/1 respectively and on that basis, I'd take E/W options about Shalfa at 8's and King of War at 16's and if you've still got an active SkyBet account, they're paying four places.

Good luck!

 

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.40 Carlisle
  • 5.25 Roscommon
  • 5.45 Market Rasen
  • 6.25 Roscommon
  • 8.05 Windsor
  • 8.45 Market Rasen

...the best of which, on paper, are a couple of Class 4 contests ie typical Monday fayre. The Carlisle Class 4 contest only has seven runners and won't provide much scope for E/W punters, whilst the Market Rasen offering is a 5-runner maiden! With that and today's feature in mind, I'll drop down a class and head for the 8.05 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to form ground...

It's a busy-looking racecard so let's quickly assess the information in front of us before moving on. Form-wise, just Hurtle was able to win last time out, but Overactive, City Cyclone and Mirabello Bay did manage to finish third and the latter had won three of his previous four outings, whilst Bulldog Spirit is the only runner in the race with a previous win, having scored at Newcastle on his debut in September of last year.

It's a fairly inexperienced field with just 42 career starts, of which Mirabello Bay is responsible for 14! This general inexperience manifests itself by the lack of wins and in the facts that Rule Of Thumb and Bulldog Spirit both only have one previous handicap run each and that Overactive, City Cyclone, Brave Knight and Kyle of Lochalsh are all on handicap debuts here.

Rule of Thumb drops in class here, whilst Mirabello Bay's LTo win was at Class 6 and he's up in both class and weight, although by just 1lb and he has already won at Class 5, as Instant Expert will testify shortly.

Most of the field have raced in the last two months or so, but it's a seasonal reappearance for Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and Brave Knight after lay-offs of 151, 230 and 251 days respectively, so they'd be excused for needing a run here.

Only Mirabello Bay has raced here at Windsor before, but has failed to make the frame in two starts, but he's also the only one to have run at a similar trip to this one, having won over 1m4f two starts ago.

I think the lack of experience may well have affected the assessor's judgement as the entire field only has a 4lb spread from highest to lowest rated, so so of these might well have been treated leniently or harshly depending upon your viewpoint. This inexperience is also reflected in the relevant stats shown on Instant Expert...

Not much to go on here, admittedly, but our three previous winners have all won at this grade, Hurtle has at least made the frame on good to firm ground and there's not really much to add to that, so let's quickly move on to see who might have the best of the draw over a course and distance that has tended to suit those drawn highest for win purposes, but there seems to be no bias at all when it comes to making the frame...

Those win stats will be better news for the likes of Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and possibly Rule of Thumb than it will over their rivals, but I suspect much will depend on how the field approach the contest, which is where feature of the day, PACE, comes into its own, because we know that those races above have favoured horses racing in a prominent position, just off the leader(s)...

Aside from this advantage for prominent runners, there's not much to split the other three running styles from either a win or a place perspective. We can also use our pace stats to make an educated guess at how these runners will approach this race, by looking at how they've tended to race in their most recent outings as follows...

A couple of them aren't entirely consistent in the early days of their career, but I'd expect City Cyclone to be setting the pace and Mirabello Bay to be the early back marker. Brave Knight will probably also be towards the rear, whilst Bulldog Spirit is likely to be prominent. Both Overactive and Kyle of Lochalsh led in their last races, which was a new tactic for them, but it didn't produce a better run than their previous efforts, so they might not race as freely this time.

Summary

Based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, of the past winners, I think the more experienced and most successful Mirabello Bay would be the one to choose for my shortlist, joined by the pace of City Cyclone and possibly Kyle of Lochalsh, whose yard have a great record at this track and have won this particular race several times in the past.

The obvious pick would be Mirabello Bay with his 4 wins and 2 places from 14 starts, including 3 wins and 2 places from his last six, but closer analysis of his form shows that those six runs were all on the A/W and that his last run on turf was here at Windsor when third of seven over 1m2f last October. That was his sixth run on turf and his other five results read 77656, so he's not suddenly as hot as he might appear.

City Cyclone has ran well in both starts this season, finishing third on both occasions and of the four horses that beat him in those races, two won next time out, one made the frame and one has yet to re-appear, so those third places might have decent efforts and if afforded an easy lead here, he could go well again.

Kyle of Lochalsh is admittedly a bit of a "what-if" type of selection, it took him a while to get going last time out, but seemed to be getting the hang of it in the closing stages and his yard have done well here/in this race in the past.

To be honest, it's not really a race I'd ant to invest heavily in, if at all, but if push came to shove, I think that this trio would represent my best chance of filling the frame. As for a winner, there's nothing jumping out, but City Cyclone could well be the one, if allowed to set the tempo. Mirabello Bay might have got used to losing now, too!

I wrote the above just after 3pm on Sunday with only Bet365's odds available. To put money down on them, I'd want at least 8/1 for any of them as an E/W bet and only City Cyclone offered that opportunity at 9/1, so that's my tentative selection for (very) small stakes.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 3.15 Newbury
  • 5.00 Downpatrick
  • 5.26 Newbury
  • 7.40 Aintree
  • 7.45 Downpatrick

The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I'm heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers' contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of 'Grand National' proportions, but it's a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground...

Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.

Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today's mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.

A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.

Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,

Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.

Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts...

...whilst place form looks like this...

The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.

The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out...

...with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I'd expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.

Summary

The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they'd be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today's mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.

Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I'd be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I'll wait that out.

For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14's, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.

Chris

Please Note, I'm away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I'll be back Sunday for Monday's racing.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.30 Salisbury
  • 2.25 York
  • 4.35 Perth
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 6.55 Newmarket

And clearly the best of those is on the Knavesmire, so let's focus upon the 2.25 York, an 8-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 2 flat contest over a left-handed 1m2.3f on good ground...

As you'd expect from a race of this magnitude, the field have won plenty of races between them and both Aristia and Free Wind won last time out, the latter coming here looking for a fourth win on the bounce with only Rogue Millennium winless in five.

Sea Silk Road has been flagged as a fast finisher and there's no new headgear or equipment on show. Rogue Millennium last raced just 18 days ago, but all of her rivals are running for the first time in at least 215 days with Free Wind not having been seen for almost 11 months since winning the Lancashire Oaks. That was also off a lengthy break, meaning that this will be only her second run in over 600 days!

Toskana Belle has won three of her six starts in Europe prior to this UK debut, but her wins were over 8f, 9f and 11f, making her the only one without a win at 1m2f, whilst the two course winners, Aristia and State Occasion have both triumphed over course and distance in July 2021 and August 2022 respectively, the former in a Listed race.

All bar Aristia & Toskana Belle will carry 9st 2lbs here, making Free Wind some 6lbs to 12lbs 'well-in' on her rivals based on OR/handicap marks and with the Gosden/Dettori partnership behind her, she couldn't be in better hands as she seeks a hat-trick of Group 2 wins.

Instant Expert doesn't carry overseas form, so it doesn't show that Toskana Belle is 3 from 3 on good ground and has 2 wins & 2 further places at Class 1. She hasn't tackled this track or trip yet, but here's how her rivals stack up...

The huge swathes of green were to be expected, but let's have a quick look at those with less than ideal scores by bringing up the place stats...

Poptronic's best form has been on the Tapeta tracks at Newcastle & Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue MIllennium's two career wins (from seven starts) have been on quicker ground than this and as for State Occasion's record at Class 1, she was 4th of 10 in as Listed race at Dundalk last September and 8th of 13 in a Newmarket Group 3 a fortnight later and hasn't been seen since. She finished 211 in a trio of Class 2 races prior to those defeats and that's probably her level.

Our 100% placers Free Wind and Sea Silk Road are drawn in stalls 6 and 3 respectively here and the last five renewals of this race have been won by horses coming out of the first two stalls, but more generally here at York over this going/trip, there's not a huge draw bias...

...although there is a suggestion that stalls 7 & 8 might be the place to be, which would be good for the likes of Toskana Belle and Rogue Millennium if the race was run to suit them, of course. Those races aboive also don't have a huge pace bias either, but leaders have come out worse than any other running style...

...which might not be the best news for the likes of Aristia and Free Wind, as this group's last four outings suggest that this pair might be the ones having to set the tempo in what might be a falsely run race...

That said, the pace/draw heat map gives pretty much most running style/draw combos a chance of success, so it might just boil down to a class of the cream rising to the top.

Summary

Sometimes we have little pace, draw or heat map bias to work with and in those cases, I tend to revert to recent form via the formline on the card and also historical data via Instant Expert and having done so, I'm not surprised that Free Wind is the early 11/8 favourite. She's clearly the one to beat here and the question really is whether you think 11/8 offers any value at all. Personally, I thought she might have been 6/4 or 7/4 early doors, but I wouldn't be surprised to her price shorten. Make of that what you will.

LTO winner Aristia has won over track and trip before and I'd expect her and possibly Sea Silk Road to be the ones chasing the fav home, but you'd probably guess that from the fact they're next best in the market at 5/1 and 11/2. In fairness, the top 3 in the market do sometimes finish 1-2-3 and I'd not be hugely surprised if that happened here, but if you were looking for something a bit longer at an E/W price, you can get 8's about the French filly, Toskana Belle.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 York
  • 4.20 Newton Abbot
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 6.20 Cork
  • 8.10 Bath
  • 8.30 Perth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Depending on your viewpoint, it's unfortunate that I can't tie the 'free' races up with the daily feature or it's good news that the two have thrown up lots of races for me to look at. And being a glass half-full kind of bloke, like I'm sure you are, I'm taking it that I've got thirteen UK races listed above, from which the 3.40 York is clearly the best on paper, but has very little data for me to share with you.

So, aside from that Group 3 race I've swerved, I'm left with a host of Class 4 or worse races, but they'll all have a winner, so let's see if we can crack the most valuable of them, the 2.05 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m2½f on good to soft ground...

The two form horses here are Monjules and Inferno Sacree who are 3 from 5 and 4 from 5 respectively, whilst featured horse Polyphonic and Swinging London have both been runners-up in each of their last two starts, but the former is winless in seven now and others on losing runs are Atholl Street at eight defeats and the 12-race maiden Fongs Way, who now makes a yard debut and UK debut since a move to Jimmy Frost (who doesn't have a great record here!).

Elsewhere Polyphonic makes just a second handicap appearance and Swinging London is in first-time cheekpieces. Top weight The Pink'n is down a class here, as are the in-form Inferno Sacree and the cold Atholl Street, but our other form horse, Monjules is up two grades here from a Flat outing but his last effort over hurdles was in this grade. He's one of just four to have won at a similar trip to this one, along with Polyphonic, Inferno Sacree (almost inevitably) and The Pink'n, who is also our only previous course winner, courtesy of a Class 3, 2m1f hurdle success almost 4 yrs ago.

Swinging London returns from a short eight-week break, but all of his rivals have raced in the last month, except Fongs Way, who hasn't been seen since he was pulled up at Cork five months ago. Other stats, taken from Instant Expert, show that just four of this field have won a NH race on good to soft ground and that five of them are previous Class 4 winners...

Not a great deal to shout about here, but Monjules, Inferno Sacree & Polyphonic do spark a little interest but Swinging London looks like he might struggle and The Plimsoll Line has toiled at this level. Place stats...

...are more encouraging for a decent Class 4 battle with so many of this field having good place numbers, but Inferno Sacree is a glaring exception, although he did win at Class 3 last time out. Winless in six efforts at this level, Swinging London has consistently made the frame, only missing out once, so he might well be a place option again here.

Pace data from past races here at Newton Abbot suggest that the further forward a horse races, the better its chances of winning...

...and this is sure to suit the front-running Inferno Sacree, based on his recent efforts...

Summary

Aside from having failed to make the frame in five previous runs at this level, Inferno Sacree ticks all the boxes for me here today. He's in great form, he won at a higher class last time out and now drops down again. Yes, he's up in the weights again, but he's won four of his last five with winning margins of 20, 5.5, 9.5 and 8.5 lengths, so will take some stopping. He has won at this trip, he has won on good to soft and is likely to lead on a front-runners' track. He's generally available at 9/2, which is more than fair.

Elsewhere, the other market principals, Monjules (3/1), Swinging London (4/1) and Polyphonic (4/1) should all run their races and end up there or thereabouts, but pace/form suggests Monjules should win that particular battle. I don't really have an E/W play here, as I thought The Pink'n was the best of those priced at 8's or bigger, but I'd want more than 8/1 for him from a hold-up position. The Plimsoll Line has an outside chance of hanging on to a place in the capable hands of Rex Dingle, but again I'd want more than 8's about him.

So for me, it's Inferno Sacree to make all and beat the chasing Monjules with Swinging London and Polyphonic battling to rein The Plimsoll Line in.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.55 Killarney
  • 8.35 Windsor
  • 8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.

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