Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/05/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 York
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 3.55 Cartmel
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 4.40 Chester

So, I've seven races from the TJC report and six 'free' ones and no duplicates! In whuich case, I'll bow to class and go with the highest rated race of that baker's dozen and have a look at the the 3.30 Haydock, a 14-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here's how they line up...

Surprisingly for a Group 2 race, only one runner, Happy Romance, was a winner last time out, but Annaf is 3 from 5, Live In The Dream's last three results were 112, Mibaahy is 3 from 5, Raasel is 2 from 6, Royal Aclaim is 3 from 5, Sandbeck is 2 from 5 and 3 from 7, The Platinum Queen is 2 from 4 and 3 from 6 , whilst Dramatised is 2 from 3 and I think I already want to narrow the field down to this more manageable group of runners, as follows...

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher, Sandbeck wears cheekpieces for just the second time and The Platinum Queen runs for Roger Varian for the first time since leaving Richard Fahey. All nine runners have won over this trip at least once before with both Raasel and Sandbeck scoring over course and dsitance.

Five of the nine have already had a run in the last five weeks, but it's a seasonal re-appearance for The Platinum Queen, Dramatised, Mitbaahy and Royal Aclaim, who have been off the track for 204, 204, 237 and 258 days respectively. Raasel is the oldest of this group at 6yrs of age, whilst The Platinum Queen and Dramatised are both 3 yr olds.

Instant Expert tells me that six of the nine have won on good to firm ground already and that five are previous Class 1 winners on turf. We also see that aside from the course and distance winners, two others have been to Haydock before and that Annaf's previous success over 5f wasn't on grass...

With one win and six unplaced efforts from seven runs on good to firm, I fear this might be too quick for Happy Romance, whose best form is on good/good to soft ground. Mitbaahy has at least made the frame in two of three defeats on this going. As for class, Annaf is unplaced in both C1 outings and Sandbeck is unplaced in all three and this is shown in the place stats as follows...

And at this point, I'm now discarding Annaf, Happy Romance and Sandbeck to leave me with the following in draw order...

I actually think that any of these are more than capable of making the frame here and with most bookies paying four places (Sky pay 5, of course!), I'm hoping to find an E/W bet or two from this group, odds permitting. I've re-arranged the half dozen into draw order, in case past similar contests here at Haydock have favoured a particular part of the draw, so let's check. I opened up the field size and the going parameters to give me more data to work with, but in these, as expected, there's no huge draw bias in a straight 5f here...

...which means that pace may well hold the key as it often does in these sprints. This is how this group have raced in their last four outings...

...and if repeated here, I'd expect The Platinum Queen and Live In The Dream to be contesting things from the start with the likes of Mitbaahy being waited with. If we then look at those races I used for the draw stats, you'll see that Mitbaahy's approach might not be the best here, as hold-up horses fare considerably worse than the other three racing styles...

And at this point, I'd probably omit Mitbaahy from my thoughts.

Summary

I've fairly crudely reduced a 14-runner field quickly down to five that I think could make the frame. I'm not really comfortable with large fields and this is my usual MO in these cases. I'm well aware that I may well have overlooked a winner or placer in the process, but you choose your method in this game!

It's only at this point that I look at the market and this is what I see...

The Platinum Queen 4/1
Dramatised
Royal Aclaim 13/2
Live In the Dream 13/2
Raasel 14/1

Sadly, I've got four of the top five in the market (I've only missed Twilight Calls), but Raasel is interesting at 14's. He won a Listed race here over course and distance this time last year and followed it up with a group 3 success at Sandown five weeks later before coming within a neck of landing the Gr2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in late July. He wasn't in the frame in two subsequent Gr1 contests as he closed out his season.

He didn't run on turf again until earlier this month when a decent fourth of fourteen in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and there's every chance he could match or better that result here, so I'm on at 14/1 E/W with Bet365.

As for the winner, I think it might come down to the two longer-priced runners Royal Aclaim and Live In the Dream. The latter will be tough to catch if away sharply and almost stole the palace House from the front on ground that might have been a little soft for him, whilst Royal Aclaim caught the eye as a 3yr old, especially when winning a Listed race at York and if she's race ready, then she's unexposed and might surprise a few of these.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.