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Last week Geegeez added Betfair Starting Price (BSP) to numerous areas of the site, writes Dave Renham. For me as a researcher and writer this is fantastic news. As we know, most punters do not bet at Industry SP (ISP) anymore. Some still stick solely with traditional bookmakers, but to improve their bottom line they will use Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) where available, as well as early or ante post prices. Some will use the Exchanges, primarily Betfair, with BSP one option to be utilised. Others will try and exploit both the bookmakers and the Exchanges to hopefully gain maximum advantage.
In my personal betting I use BSP for around 40% of all my horse racing win bets, so when researching ideas it is very useful for me to see the BSP profit and loss column.
For this article I am going to examine data from UK racing over the last two full years (2023 and 2024). In the overall findings I will be including all race codes, i.e. flat, all-weather (AW) and National Hunt (NH). For BSP profits/losses I will be using 2% commission which is what we, at Geegeez, are using in our calculations.
When we compare ISP to BSP there is no contest – BSP wins hands down. To give an example, if we look at horses priced between 5/1 (6.0) and 6/1 (7.0) combining all race codes in the UK over the designated time frame we see the following:
To BSP a profit of £226.24 to £1 level stakes would have been achieved compared with an £1826 loss if backing to Industry SP. That is some eye-watering difference. Just imagine if we were using £20 stakes and not £1 ones!
Before delving into BSP in more detail I do want to talk very quickly about Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG). This option is still available with 12 main bookmakers on most UK races each day. Essentially this option is a no brainer for those betting with standard bookies. When using BOG, it gives punters the chance to take an early price, but if the starting price (SP) is higher, we get paid out at the higher odds. I am in the process of doing some initial research into potential BOG strategies and at this early stage it seems there is a sweet spot in terms of price – or at least the early price. Early prices around the 5/1 (6.0) to 7/1 (8.0) mark seem to offer the best value long term for BOG bettors. I will need to dig much deeper, but I am fairly confident I am in the right early price ballpark to utilise BOG to its max.
There can be issues though with BOG betting such as limits on stakes and occasionally the BOG option will not be available – normally for those people that are winning consistently using it. Working out potential BOG profit and loss figures based on past prices is not always clearcut because of these aforementioned issues. However, I do hope to be sharing some research on this at some point in the future.
Back to main focus of this piece. Earlier I mentioned that the calculations in terms of Betfair commission across the Geegeez site is 2%. For those who currently 5% and are regular bettors on the machine, then log in to your Betfair account and choose the 'Basic' plan on this page. Once this is done, you'll pay 2% only on net winning Exchange bets.
Paying 2% commission on winning bets rather than 5% commission is clearly preferably but I want to illustrate this numerically by using real data to see what a difference it can make long term. Let me compare the BSP profits (to £1 level stakes) of all horses that had an Industry Starting Price of 13/2 in terms of 2% commission versus 5% commission.
Over this two-year period the difference would have been £116.89. To £20 stakes the difference would be a very significant £2337.80. In the table below I will share some other ISPs in terms of this 2% v 5% difference:
A palpable difference across the board and, for 8/1 shots, as with the 13/2 shots, a loss with 5% commission has been turned into a healthy profit when applying a 2% commission.
My next piece of digging is in connection with the ISP and the average BSP price for that specific price – comparing the difference between the two. The first graph compares a selection of ISPs under 10/1 (11.0) with their BSP average counterparts. The graph uses decimal odds for ease of comparison:
Hence an Even money shot at ISP (2.0) has paid 2.14 on average at BSP (before commission); a 9/1 (10.0) shot has averaged at 12.61. It is just another indication of why ISP on its own is outdated for any serious punter.
Let me now look at a selection of some bigger ISP prices ranging from 11.0 (10/1) to 41.0 (40/1):
As the ISP prices goes to 20/1 (21.0) or bigger the gap to BSP starts to increase considerably. Once we get to 40/1 (41.0) the BSP average is moving closer to double that of ISP. I have always been a fan of backing big-priced outsiders because if I can find a horse with a percentage win chance akin to its likely ISP then I have excellent value.
My next comparison is with average BSP prices for handicaps versus non-handicaps at various ISPs. I wonder how many of us have assumed the average prices would be basically identical – well, within a hundredth of a point or two over two years’ worth of day at least. This is indeed the case for an ISP of Evens (2.0) where the difference is 0.02 of a point (2.13 versus 2.15), but as the prices get bigger, the gaps between the two start to increase. Once again, I’ll share two graphs, the first focusing on an ISP of 9/1 (10.0) or less:
The average non-handicap BSP is higher across the board than the handicap one with the difference between the two gradually increasing as the prices get higher.
Now I would like to examine the bigger prices:
With the bigger prices we see a similar pattern with the non-handicap BSP averages higher than the handicap ones and the gaps between the two once again increase as the ISPs get bigger. Looking at the ISP 40/1 (41.0) comparison we can see the gap between the two prices is close to 10 points (77.34 versus 67.87).
I believe the reason we have these differences, and such differences are more pertinent to these bigger prices, is due to the shape of some non-handicap markets. I am talking primarily about non-handicap markets with a very short-priced favourite. Here is an example of such a race. It was the 6.30 at Southwell on 8th October 2024. It was a 5 runner 2yo novice race (non-handicap). Here is the result with the relevant ISPs and BSPs:
With a very short odds favourite in Shah at 2/13 (1.15) if we look at all the other BSP prices they are bigger than their non-handicap average price. The table below helps to illustrate this further:
Not only was the BSP comfortably above the average for all four of these runners, in the case of the two biggest priced runners, Something Splendid and Divot, the difference was huge (80 v 47.36 and 328 v 142.53). Of course, such huge outsiders in a race with a super-hot jolly win very rarely but when they do the BSP rewards handsomely.
In my two-year research time frame, there have been 64 races with a favourite priced 2/13 or shorter and 61 of those were non-handicap races. Therefore, having this type of market shape for handicaps is extremely uncommon. Hence, these higher priced outliers in terms of BSP will occur much more in non-handicaps, helping to push the average BSP upwards. Now my guess is that this is not the only reason for the big differences between the average BSP prices of bigger priced runners in non-handicaps versus handicaps, but more on that later.
Continuing the bigger priced theme as well as comparing handicap results to non-handicap ones, let me look at some more BSP data comparing strike rates and BSP returns. In the table below I have split ISPs into three groups – prices from 33/1 to 50/1 (34.0 to 51.0), 66/1 to 80/1 (67.0 to 81.0) and 100/1+ (101.0+).
When looking at horses priced 34.0 to 51.01 the win strike rates imply a small edge to non-handicappers and the returns show a clear advantage to that cohort, too. Once we get to 67.0 to 80.0 though, the strike rates have flip-flopped with handicappers winning nearly twice as often (albeit still very rarely) and with a huge disparity in the ROIs of around 35p in the £ in favour of said handicappers. This disparity just gets bigger once we hit those 101.0 or bigger shots. Although these 101.0+ handicappers have won on average just one race in every 175 they have seen a return of over 60p in the £ to BSP. Non-handicappers in this price bracket have won on average one race in 833 losing 45p in the £.
There are two reasons for sharing this handicap / non-handicap BSP data for bigger price runners, and I would like to clarify that it is not to suggest that we back all 100/1+ handicappers! The first reason is to show that with bigger priced runners the type of race does make a difference, as does the ISP or the likely ISP, in terms of win chance, likely BSP and potential returns. Secondly, this table might help to explain an additional reason for something I was discussing earlier in relation to why the average price of outsiders on Betfair is bigger for non-handicappers than for handicappers.
At this juncture it should be noted that BSP does not beat ISP 100% of the time. However, a BSP ‘win’ does occur 97.5% of the time (and therefore ISP has ‘won’ 2.5% of the time). It is this 2.5% subset of runners I want to look at next.
Given that we know the Betfair market is about as efficient as a betting market can get, when the ISP is higher than its Betfair equivalent, the expectation would be that this industry price ought to be very close to its ‘true’ price.
4486 horses had an ISP higher than their BSP during the two years in review, and if we had backed them at ISP, a profit of £241.69 (ROI +5.4%) would have been achieved. To BSP these runners would have lost us £77.63 (ROI -1.7%).
Of course, we don’t know the BSP or the ISP before the race starts, so you’d be forgiven for thinking this is a pointless piece of intel. However, for those punters who back late on Betfair, literally seconds before the ‘off’, knowing about this unusual state of affairs could offer a potential strategy.
The prices available very late on Betfair are going to be close to the eventual BSP, especially at the front end of the market. Technically, then, a strategy that may offer an edge would be to have both a Betfair live screen along with a couple of bookmaker live screens open on your computer, coupled with a live racing feed. If, a few seconds before the start of the race, the live Betfair price on a horse is lower than an available live bookmaker price, then back the horse with the bookmaker.
The chances are, regardless of the final ISP, that this will beat BSP with the price taken, or at least effectively beaten it after commission is considered. Not all of us have the time to watch live races on a daily basis and employ such a strategy but for those who do, I would be interested to see how this idea panned out over time.
Finally in this article, I want to examine the results when we use a BSP to ISP odds ratio. What I mean by that is if a horse has a BSP of 3.0 and the ISP was 3.0 the ratio would 1.0. If the BSP was 9.8 and the ISP was 7.0 the ratio would be 1.4 (9.8/7.0). I wanted to see if we could find anything useful out of looking at such ratios. To do this I have used ranges for the ratio and the table below shows my findings:
As expected, the strike rates tend to move in a positive direction as we move down the groups. In terms of returns, horses that have a BSP/ISP ratio of 1.01 to 1.24 have offered the best value. This again helps to illustrate how efficient the Betfair market is, especially at the front end of the market.
*
That’s all for this week. Any price-based research has flaws because as I have stated earlier, we do not know pre-race what the ISP or BSP will be. However, this type of overview analysis is important to understand. For those who never or rarely bet on Betfair I hope this article is enlightening. For those who do, then there should be plenty of new information and stats to be aware of which have the potential to improve one’s bottom line.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/linechart.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-04-08 16:34:012025-04-09 07:52:10Comparing Starting Price with Betfair SP
Before we enter dream world proper, for a few hundred yards of Saturday’s four miles and two and a half furlongs of the Randox Grand National, my own silly dream tip looked almost a possibility, writes Tony Stafford.
The 13-year-old Celebre d’Allen had jumped into the lead at the third fence from home apparently still going and above all jumping well. All those safely negotiated jumps (57 before Saturday and another 30 now) were apparently combining to make the impossible come true.
Admittedly, the Irish and especially Willie Mullins hordes were grouping, but Michael Nolan turned into the final short straight – there’s also an elbow of course, in the lead. Then, the few agonising strides to the penultimate fence were enough for the bubble to burst, but what a showing, Celebre giving his everything.
That 150/1 last Monday had only been trimmed by a relatively small margin to 125/1 and a friend got me at least double the 150/1 on Betfair, admittedly for peanuts. Then the old legs tired, the Philip Hobbs/ Johnson White Aintree warrior and phenomenon ran out of puff and pulled up on the run-in.
His implosion left the way clear for a Willie Mullins 1-2-3 and for good measure 5-7. It was led off by Nick Rockett (33/1), last year’s winner I Am Maximus (7/1, 2nd favourite) and Grangeclare West, also 33/1. The Trifecta paid £6,850 for a £1 stake.
Had the one UK-trained horse to finish in the first nine, the Josh Guerriero/Oliver Greenall 13/2 favourite Iroko (4th, in the McManus colours) and Henry de Bromhead’s Senior Chief (40/1 in sixth place) behaved themselves, this would have been a superdoopafecta (super is 4) to eclipse the 42-year-old feat of Michael Dickinson’s Famous Five in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
I suggested to one trainer yesterday that I thought this, as it stood, beat the Tricky Dicky achievement. He wasn’t so sure, saying: “Mullins has 300 horses to work with. The Dickinsons had probably around 50, so for Michael to sort them out to do what they did in a highly competitive 11-horse field was incredible”.
Three hundred to pick from is one thing. To get the right five, mostly high in the handicap, was amazing. Several post-race questions immediately came to mind, firstly how could a horse trained by the master and fresh from winning successively the Thyestes Chase, for many years one of the prime trials in Ireland for Aintree, and then the Bobbyjo Chase, be allowed to start at 33/1? Crazy, why didn’t we find it instead of messing around with 150/1 13-year-olds?
There is no question that Walk In the Park, listed as “private” as regards his fee at Coolmore’s Grange Stud since relocating there in 2016 from France, where his last fee was €1,500, is still the most coveted stallion of jumps horses. He sired the eight-year-old Nick Rockett – the only one of the 34 in the field by him.
Several times over the winter, before and after the publication of the weights, I’ve been moved to question how home trainers can ever get their horses into the race. There were a few more than expected this time, but apart from Iroko, only Twig (10th), Beauport (12th), Horantzau d’Airy (13th), Bravemansgame (15th) and Chantry House, last of 16 to get round, completed the course.
When you think Twig never got into the heat of the action and was more than 40 lengths behind the winner, yet miles in front of the other four to survive, you can see the problem.
It’s no longer the fences. Only two fell in the hunter chase on Thursday and there were no fallers in the Topham on Friday, both admittedly over almost a full circuit less than the big race. Twenty-three got round in the Topham and on the fast ground it was a thriller all the way to the line as Mullins/McManus’ Gentleman De Mee got up near the post. Six pulled up and one unseated.
Apart from the big race, Mullins’ 30 runners over the three days yielded eight wins, only one of which, Green Splendour (100/30) completing a double from the big race for Willie’s son Patrick in the finale, started favourite. Indeed, only three of his horses on the week were market leaders. It must have been unique when none of his four winners that led off Thursday’s card started favourite.
Dan Skelton also provided three favourites, in his case from 19 runners over the three days, but a single win has meant his lead over Mullins in the trainers’ title race, once around £1.5 million, has been cut to not much more than 100 grand.
The five Mullins Grand National runners nicked, thanks principally to Nick Rockett, £860k. Not a bad day’s work.
Mullins has already stated that he will have a go at retaining his title and, knowing his voracious, if genial nature, he’s odds on to do it.
You might not have noticed, but there was another big-money card going on over in Dubai on Saturday. No doubt Frankie Dettori was aware of the sudden burst of “where did it all go wrong” stories in the UK press and social media over his filing for bankruptcy.
Also, I’m sure the HMRC executives that have pursued the claim might have been watching – do they do a two- or three-day week these days and Saturdays are no doubt sacrosanct? They might have been getting excited and checking whether Dubai earnings are retrievable by UK authorities as Frankie’s 40/1 mount, the US-trained Mixto, went for home with a good lead in the Dubai World Cup.
Then, irritatingly for the veteran Italian, along came another US-trained and fellow 5yo, Hit Show, for Brad Cox and rider Florent Geroux to steal the £5.5 million first prize. Hot favourite at 4/9 was Forever Young who pretty much plodded home for third. Frankie must be content with his share of the £1.9 million second spot, adding to the chunk of the £443k of the Godolphin Mile he won on Raging Torrent for US trainer Doug O’Neill.
While there seems to have been fewer UK horses running there this year – I haven’t done an analysis to check that - Jamie Osborne has been as busy in the desert state as ever in 2025. He went close with daughter Saffie to winning the UAE Derby, their Heart Of Honor being nosed out by Japanese-trained Admire Daytona. No doubt Jamie will have the Kentucky Derby on his mind for this horse who so clearly enjoys the dirt.
The most handsome earner for the UK though was, unsurprisingly, William Haggas. His Majloom, albeit Maktoum-owned, a 33/1 shot ridden by Tom Marquand, collected £400k for finishing 3rd to another Japanese winner, Soul Rush, who caught and passed 2/5 shot Romantic Warrior on the line in a finish of seven-year-olds for the ten-furlong Dubai Turf.
Meanwhile, back home in Japan there was a £1.5 million winner’s pot for a ten-furlong Group 1 race on the turf. Bellagio Opera was the winner. If you doubted the strength of the racing and also the breeding programmes that are the base line for Japanese racing, all 15 of the runners were domestic-bred and only two of their sires were bred anywhere but in Japan. It’s been a long-term programme and overseas wins show just how well it is working and will continue to do so.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Willie_Patrick_Mullins_NickRockett_GrandNational2025.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-04-07 07:36:542025-04-07 17:47:13Monday Musings: Willie Do It Again?
It's the changing of the seasons, a time for spring cleaning and refreshing the house. And, this year, that extends to chez geegeez, too. You may have noticed a few changes already, including on this page, in terms of the look and feel of things. There's much more of that in the pipeline for the coming days and weeks.
But today I want to share an update that is more than just cosmetic. Indeed, it feels like building an extension on the side of the house - after a fashion, at least. Yes, finally, we have added Betfair data to our racecards, form tools and reports. The video below illustrates what we've added, where you'll find it, and how to use it. I very much recommend you have a gander.
Betfair data is visible to all paid plan users, whether Lite or Gold. To see what else we have, and to upgrade your account, click here.
There is also an updated User Guide, which you can review here.
I really hope you enjoy the new data as much as I have been.
Matt
p.s. As is often the case with new releases, there are a few odds and ends to sweep up afterwards. We're aware that the 'tomorrow' report content is not yet on site - it will be later this afternoon.
p.p.s. In the video, I've referred to 2% commission on Betfair. In order to ensure you're paying this minimum level, log in to your Betfair account and go to this page. Choose the 'Basic' plan (probably the panel on the right of the page). That's it, you'll now pay 2% only on net winning exchange bets.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/betfairodds.png4731543Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-04-02 12:58:492025-04-02 13:00:02A Major New Site Update
Two years ago, I wrote an article looking at some past races in the month of April, writes Dave Renham. At the beginning of that piece, which you can review here, I looked briefly at the performance of favourites. I established then that favourites at this early stage of the season seemed to have struggled a little when compared to other times of the year, but in terms of the stats shared I barely scratched the surface. And so, in this piece, I want to delve considerably deeper and cover a broad array of factors to give Geegeez readers the best possible overview of the ‘jolly’ at this time of the year.
Introduction
The article looks at favourites in turf flat racing only during the month of April and covers the period from 2018 to 2024 (there was no racing in April 2020 due to Covid). Profits and losses have been computed to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) with any winning commission accounted for in the calculations.
Let me start by sharing the overall figures for all favourites in April. For the record these include clear and joint favourites:
We see a strike rate of just under 30% with losses of between eight and nine pence in the £. Let’s see how these results stack up compared with other months of the year.
Monthly Comparison of Favourite Performance
Firstly, let’s compare the win strike rates (I have ignored March and November due to limited data):
As the graph shows April and October have the lowest strike rates while the remaining months all hit 32% and above. Part, but not all, of this is a function of field size, with the average UK flat turf field being 8.51 runners in July compared with 9.35 in April.
How do the profit and loss figures compare in terms of returns? Let’s see:
The returns for April favourites are comfortably the worst full month of the season, with at the other end of the spectrum July showing a small profit; May and September are within a smidge of breaking even. The A/E indices paint a similar picture as the table shows:
As can be seen, the April figure is the only one below 0.90 showing positive correlation with the ROI%s. Meanwhile, the highest, July (0.97), also correlates well. When I compared the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for flat turf favourites between April and July, April scored 0.71, July 0.74.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Race type
The next port of call is to examine race types. I have decided to split these into age group race types. Hence, I am comparing 2yo non-handicaps with 3yo only non-handicaps, mixed age non-handicaps, 3yo handicaps and mixed age handicaps. For mixed age races I have combined 3yo+, 4yo+, 3-4yo, and any other such derivative. [There are no 2yo handicaps in April.]
The non-handicap figures are quite similar in terms of returns and A/E indices, but the handicap results are poles apart. 3yo only handicap favourites have performed well above expectations, making a tidy profit with excellent figures across the board. Backing them would have secured a BSP in all years bar one.
Handicaps for mixed age runners in contrast have seen the poorest results by some way. The vast majority of these races are 4yo+ contests at this time of year and, intriguingly, horses aged 4 have the worst record when starting as the market leader. 4yo favourites in 4yo+ handicaps have won just 21.1% of the time (86 wins from 408) for a BSP loss of £103.19 (ROI -25.3%); A/E 0.71.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Race Class
I want now to see if the class of race makes any difference at this time of the year. Now, the majority of races in April are Class 4 or lower, but it is still worth sharing the splits:
Class 2 and 3 races have been the poorest for the jollies albeit from modest sample sizes. Interestingly, non-handicap Class 2 and 3 events have been the worst of all for favourites with losses of nearly 26 pence in the £. In terms of value, Class 6 races have offered favourites the best returns although we are still in the negative zone. In these contests backing favourites would have lost just under 3 pence for every £1 staked.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Sex
The sex of a horse is something I always check when researching any area, and it transpires that there is quite a difference in performance between male and female favourites at this time of the year. Female favourites have won nearly 3% more races than male favourites, and losses for females stand at 2p in the £ compared with 10p for males. There is a big difference, too, in their A/E indices as the bar chart below shows:
Female favourites have been far better value than their male counterparts in April going back to 2018. Indeed, in mixed sex races female market leaders have edged into the black thanks to 79 wins from 251 runners (SR 31.3%) for a small £5.30 profit (ROI +2.1%); A/E 1.02.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Days since last run
This is the first of the last time out (LTO) factors I plan to look at. Due to how the numbers have panned out I divided runners into three distinct groups: horses that are returning to the track within a month (1 to 30 days), horses that have been off the track for over a month but less than five months (31 to 150 days), and horses returning after five months or more (151 days+). These, granted somewhat arbitrary, splits make for interesting reading:
Horses that were off the track for five months or more (151+ days) and started favourite have performed the best by some considerable margin. Horses which were fit from a recent run (1-30 days) are next best, but their record - losing more than 10% at BSP - is modest at best. Runners returning to the racecourse after a break between 31 and 150 days have a quite dreadful record with losses not far off 30p in the £.
Focusing on the 151+ days cohort their record has been very good when contesting a handicap, winning 103 races from 353 (SR 28.9%) for a profit of £40.59 (ROI +11.5%).
They even made a fair profit to Industry SP of £23.72 (ROI +6.7%). Essentially, don’t be put off by any favourite returning to the track after a long break.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by LTO Race Code
I want to look at the splits now in connection with which race code the last run was be it turf flat, all-weather or National Hunt. Here are the findings:
There have not been many horses that have switched from a National Hunt race last time, but the small group of qualifiers made a profit. As regards a run on the turf (flat) or the all-weather LTO, clearly a turf run has been preferable. Turf and NH race last time out win rates are almost exactly the same whereas April turf favourites that ran on the AW last time won at a much lesser clip.
These data correlate to some extent to the DSLR (days since last run) data shared earlier because combining days off the track of 31 to 150 days with a run on the all-weather LTO produced these dismal findings for favourite backers – 58 wins from 249 (SR 23.3%) for a BSP loss of £74.57 (ROI -30%).
Flat Turf Favourite Performance in April by Day of the week
I am moving away from LTO factors for this next area to share my findings for favourites on different days of the week. We know the quality of meetings varies from day to day so will that make any difference to the performance of favourites during April? Below is a graph illustrating the Return on Investment percentages across the seven days:
Traditionally, racing at the beginning of the week (Monday and Tuesday) offers more modest fare and favourites have really struggled at this time of year on these two days. Contrast that to the performance of the market leaders on what is usually the most competitive day of the week, Saturday where such runners have made a profit of close to 10 pence in the £.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Class Change
My next stop is to look at favourites and class change. Let’s go straight to the splits:
Favourites raised in grade have the best record, with the highest win rate and A/E index, as well as edging into profit... just. Favourites dropped in class have produced the poorest returns and the lowest A/E index. As a whole, these stats suggest strongly that we should prefer to back a favourite that is taking a step up in class.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Position LTO
A look now at where a horse finished on its last run. I have combined LTO positions to give better sample sizes:
We have the usual sliding scale in terms of win strike rate as we would expect. Last time winners that started favourite performed above the norm and in fact made a small profit. At the other end of the spectrum favourites that finished sixth or worse LTO have performed quite poorly.
Earlier it was noted that female horses had performed well when favourite. If we look at female favourites that won LTO we see some excellent figures – 39 wins from 98 (SR 39.8%) for a healthy profit of £23.88 (ROI +24.3%). One final LTO winning stat links back to class change and horses upped in class after a victory have produced a strike rate of close to 38% (81 wins from 214) and a profit of £36.49 (ROI +17.1%).
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Going
A look at underfoot conditions now. I have split the favourite results into two looking at good or softer conditions versus good or firmer. There is a slight difference between the two as the table shows:
It appears that favourites in April have an improved winning chance with firmer conditions underfoot. Such runners are ahead in all three of the main metrics of strike rate, ROI% and A/E index.
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Market position Early Morning Odds
In some recent articles I have looked at market movements combining Early odds, Opening Show and SP. Here I want to examine favouritism status in the Early Morning markets for this April group of SP favourites. I have split these early morning market positions into three: horses that were clear favourite when the early odds came out, horses that were joint favourites and horses that were not favourite. Here is what I found:
56% of SP favourites were also clear favourite in the early morning odds published by the bookmakers. However, despite predictably enjoying the best strike rate they still returned losses of close to 11p in the £. Joint favourites early had the worst record, albeit from a smallish sample; while horses that became favourite later in the day (the original ‘not favourite’ group) provided the best outcome from a return’s perspective (they also had the highest A/E index).
Flat Turf Fav Performance in April by Trainer
The last main area I want to look at is trainers, although sample sizes for the majority of them is too small to glean anything useful. Therefore, I have restricted the list to those that have saddled at least 40 UK turf flat favourites in the month of April between 2018 and 2024. The list is ordered alphabetically:
Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian stand out based on all the metrics. Both have produced returns in excess of 20p in the £ and this is impressive. The Gosden stable and David O’Meara have also nudged into profit. On the other side of the coin, Andrew Balding and Kevin Ryan struggled relatively.
Conclusions
Despite turf flat favourites performing below the norm in April there have been several positive findings. Female favourites in mixed sex races, favourites in 3yo handicaps, favourites upped in class, LTO winners sent off favourite, and favourites off the track for five months or more have all produced positive returns.
There have also been some strong negatives which hopefully will help steer us away from potentially bad value favourites.
I have one more positive stat to share and that relates to horses that were favourite last time out. This cohort has won 196 races from 511 qualifiers (SR 38.4%) for a profit of £62.65 (ROI +12.3%); A/E 1.06.
For those of us that will be backing some favourites this month I am hopeful the above will point us in the right direction.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Beverley_Uphill_Finish.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-03-31 08:38:172025-03-31 08:38:17Favourites on the Flat in April
How do you like a fairy tale, writes Tony Stafford. As so many English trainers have noted, the inflexible rules concerning the Grand National weights do not allow such potential winners as Midlands Grand National hero Mr Vango from giving Sara Bradstock the chance to join her late father John Oaksey with a place in Aintree history. Next year his adjusted rating will ensure he gets in.
Saturday’s race has the usual proliferation of multiple trainer entries, but it’s not just Willie Mullins with seven that takes up a fair proportion of the 34 available places. Shock horror, Paul Nicholls, still complaining that people were doubting him after a poor, by his standards, season until Caldwell Potter’s Cheltenham Festival success, has five.
Other UK handlers were calling for something I’ve been advocating for years – a maximum for any trainer. Looks like only the multiple champions of Ireland and the UK would be the sufferers if that came to pass.
True, there’s a few more of Gordon Elliott’s lower down if they get past the safe 34, which in itself has been a hindrance to the reputation of the great race. The not so Grand National is like a park race, but as I said at the start, how would you fancy a little flutter on a 13-year-old not guaranteed a run? It is a 150/1 shot to be fair and money-back, no run too.
The relatively new Philip Hobbs / Johnson White team has a horse in Celebre d’Allen here that in four of his last seven has run at Aintree. His sole spin over the Mildmay course in October 2023 resulted in a 16-length victory in a veterans’ chase under claimer Lizzie Gale.
He’s also run three times over the National fences, in successive Topham Trophies over 2m5f, finishing eighth in 2023 and a staying on fourth last year only two lengths behind the eventual winner.
In between he was also fourth in the 3m2f Becher Chase in December 2023, tiring in the heavy ground. The fact he has successfully jumped round Auteuil for Louisa Carberry and started life after her with a hat-trick over hurdles for Hobbs, twice on heavy ground at Haydock, suggest he is the sort of adaptable horse that might suit the once supreme test.
Fewer than ever horses are nudged out at either the five-day (later today) or Thursday’s 48-hour stage, but the Hobbs policy of not harming his 145 rating after Bangor has a fair chance of proving to have been a wise one.
One name that appears on his form lines is Inothewayurthinkin, the horse that would have been the shortest priced ever favourite for the race had he not been taken out a few days after his epic Gold Cup victory.
Celebre d’Allen suffered his single non-completion in the Kim Muir of 2024, won so spectacularly by J P McManus’ horse, who came from a long way back to beat the brave Git Maker at his leisure a year ago.
His in-running comment for that race reads, “hampered by faller and unseated at the 17th”. He does tend to be ridden with restraint as was the case at Bangor, when Callum Pritchard rode him, and it would be great if Ben Pauling’s promising young conditional could get a mount in the big race.
The analysis of that race in the Racing Post confirmed what his overall card suggests: he goes well fresh. Five months since the last run might be stretching it a bit, but with the likelihood of multiple places for each-way bets, the fact he’s cleared 57 National fences without a hitch should be worth clinging onto.
For the win, though, what a story if Shark Hanlon and Hewick can take the prize. Gordon Elliott, Tony Martin and Charles Byrnes have all returned from bans in recent times unashamedly continuing their business of winning big races so why not John Joseph?
He entrusted his stable to Tara Lee Cogan during the rap over the knuckles – not much more than that in reality - for his transgression and no doubt had a fair degree of influence on Hewick’s preparation which resulted in a couple of unplaced runs.
Back with the licence, the flame-haired massive presence that is the Shark, was soon in business in a conditions hurdle at Thurles late last month, Hewick winning as he liked by five lengths.
Gavin Sheehan is lined up for the mount on the 2023 King George winner – he beat Nicholls’ Bravemansgame that day by close to a couple of lengths – and will have that Nicholls horse among the 33 he will need to beat, on 7lb worse terms.
You would say, though, that of the pair, Hewick has shown no sign of deterioration in a far-reaching programme involving (earlier) winning the American Grand National (over hurdles) at Far Hills and running second to the very smart Losange Bleu in the French Champion Hurdle over more than three miles. Bravemansgame has looked a fair bit short of that level in the interim.
I was confident that Vanillier, second to Corach Rambler in the 2023 Grand National, would win the Cross Country race at the Festival this month and if he hadn’t gone straight on at the Grand National-style Canal Turn replica at Cheltenham first time round, he probably would have, rather than finishing third behind his Gavin Cromwell stable companion Stumptown.
For me then it’s Hewick, Vanillier, with a dream 150/1 saver – indeed lifesaver if he wins! – on Celebre d’Allen.
**
I’m not done yet with the 2025 Horses in Training Book. Had it been published a little later, one immediate correction would not have been necessary. It lists Raphael E Freire as operating from Felstead Court, in Folly Road, Lambourn. His 25 listed horses are all owned by Amo Racing.
Freire had his first victory of 2025 with 6/4 favourite Diablo Rojo at Lingfield a week ago, when his true location was revealed as recently retired Sir Michael Stoute’s former yard, Freemason Lodge, off the Bury Road in Newmarket.
I visited Roger Varian’s yard earlier this year and the signs of building as you come along the track off the Bury Road with Freemason Lodge on the left and Varian’s Carlburg Stables up ahead, was intensive. Obviously, everything was readied for Raphael in time for the turf season.
Indeed, he saddled on Saturday Mr Professor, last year’s winner of the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster, but Amo stable rider David Egan could get him no nearer than 13th of the 22 runners in a repeat bid. Freire moved alongside Mr Professor’s previous trainer Dominic Ffrench-Davies in the summer last year having waited for some time for his visa to come through. He’s Brazilian and cut his training teeth in Norway.
On joining the team, he had special involvement with the ever-expanding intake of juveniles. Genial Dom, meanwhile, has gone the way of many previous Kia Joorabchian trainers. He hasn’t a single Amo horse, although Raphael, to his credit, has left a couple of three-year-olds with Dominic. They are twice-raced Flor Do Rio and Mum’s Called, a filly that last went through the ring for 1,000gns.
Ffrench-Davies has three two-year-olds listed in his care. They cost 28,000, 7,000 and 1,500. Last year he had more than 60 in training at the start of the season, now it’s 30, but, knowing Dom, he’ll still be smiling and doing a great job for his mix of smaller owners and syndicates.
Raphael Escobar (that’s what the E stands for) Freire doesn’t have all the Amo horses. They got off the mark at the first time of asking in Saturday’s Brocklesby Stakes, when the 3/1 favourite Norman’s Cay won for the Richard Hannon team.
Norman’s Cay wasn’t listed among any of the 91 juveniles in Hannon’s 202-strong squad in HIT 2025. It’s impossible to know from the book how many others he has in his care for Amo as no owner’s name is listed by Hannon, but after this instant success for the 60k buy from the Somerville Yearling sale (the first of the season last autumn) at Tattersalls, there might be a few more going down to Herridge before long.
I had to have a second look at the result. I see Exclamation finished third for Grace Harris as a 40/1 shot. The previous Exclamation was also by this one’s sire, Acclamation, except they were foaled 18 years apart. The 2005 Exclamation won the £189k Tattersalls October Auction Stakes at Newmarket for Raymond Tooth, but my fondest memory was when, as a four-year-old, he took part in a memorable gallop at Brian Meehan’s stable.
That Thursday morning, before we tucked into the sausages, bacon and the rest, four horses lined up for a gallop that was meant to cement top 2008 juvenile Crowded House as the real deal for the new season’s Classics.
Exclamation and the three-year-old Nasri were also in the line-up, and they finished second and third with Crowded House a poor last of four.
The easy winner of the gallop was Delegator and Mrs Poilin Good’s colt was available at 33/1 for the 2,000 Guineas that morning. I call a pal to get on but neglected to avail myself of the place option. He finished second at Newmarket – to Sea The Stars.
That brilliant John Oxx-trained colt went on to win the Derby (from Fame And Glory); the Coral-Eclipse (beating Rip Van Winkle), Juddmonte (Mastercraftsman), Irish Champion (Fame and Glory again) and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Youmzain).
To think I had 33/1 about him at Newmarket and didn’t bother to back him each-way, never mind lay anything off the horse that started 3/1 favourite for that Classic!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Celebre_DAllen_Bangor.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-03-31 07:17:462025-03-31 07:17:46Monday Musings: A National Cause Celebre?
The excitement of a new flat turf season is upon us once more, as we look forward to the Brocklesby, the Spring Mile and of course the Lincoln tomorrow at Doncaster. But that buzz can quickly give way to head scratching as we start to ponder which horses that have been absent for most of 200 days might be fit enough on this first spin of the year.
Here are two or three thoughts that might help with sorting the not today's from the ready's in our quest for some extra, erm, readies...
Trainer Form
How can we know if a horse is fit? Some talk about trainer form, either historical at this time of year or recent in the past few days; and it's not unreasonable to think in those terms. But a hitch at home - say a gallop getting washed away, or a problem with a high pollen crop in a nearby field - can upend history and delay a trainer's team for a few weeks.
Meanwhile, recent form cases are often built on the basis of just one or two runners which, while better than zero, is a very flimsy sample size.
Combining the two may be better than relying individually on either; and trying to squeeze a bit more meaning out of small samples by using percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) rather than win, or even place, strike rates seems sensible, too.
Here's a list of trainers who traditionally hit the turf flat season running: this group has 50+ UK flat turf runners in March/April across the past four seasons and an Impact Value of 1.25 or higher, and they're ordered by win strike rate.
Early Season Trainers: those who hit the ground running
It's no surprise to see Charlie Appleby at the top of the pile. We can either disregard Mark Johnston or consider combining son Charlie's form into the mix - personally, I'll ignore that row. William Haggas and Charlie Hills appear to be fast starters and potentially offer a small bit of value; whereas the quick from the blocks efforts of Team Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute are undone for us punters by typically short prices when they've won.
Further down the list may be where the more interesting characters hang out. The likes of Eve Johnson Houghton and Ben Haslam and Jack Channon are worth drilling into a bit further.
This second table is taken from the Trainer Statistics 14 Day report, with 5+ runs and a PRB of more than 0.55.
Trainers in recent good form and with runners at Doncaster
There is no crossover between the tables; no trainer appears in both tables. Karl Burke was just off the 14 day table, with a very good PRB of 0.55; and Julie Camacho was just off the early season four-year form table with an IV of 1.24. Burke has six runners at Donny on opening day, all fancied, and Camacho has just Lattam in the Lincoln, also well enough found in the early market.
You can draw your own inferences from the tables, but a couple of observations from me:
- Keep an eye on the runners from the Haggas yard tomorrow. Are they well supported? Did they run with credit, even if not winning?
- Ditto Charlie Hills. (fwiw - nothing at all - my one token interest in the Lincoln is on his 33/1 rag, Galeron, so I'll be watching keenly enough)
- We know horses from the Clive Cox, Marco Botti and Jennie Candlish yards are running very well at the moment
- A few other names on that list - Kevin Frost, Richard Hughes and your pick from the rest - are worth noting, too.
Here's another way of looking at trainer form...
Slow starters and expensive from an ROI perspective
This table comprises eight trainers who tend to start on the turf slowly. They all have a pretty painful ROI, too, with the possible exception of Phil Kirby. Tim Easterby has actually saddled 26 flat winners on the turf in March or April since 2021, but they've come at the expense of 423 non-winners. And an ROI of -51%!
These are all good trainers, but for differing reasons they tend to fare poorly in the early weeks of the flat turf season. (Note, any one of them could have a magnificent month, caveat emptor, small samples, etc).
Here's the 14 day trainer form table similarly flipped on its head and sorted by percentage of rivals beaten (PRB), lowest at the top:
Recent middling form
Are these trainers to avoid? Probably not, at least not solely on the basis of the table above. But theirs might be horses to have a question mark against unless you really like the rest of the profile. Again, I'm not saying they can't win - duh - but I am suggesting I'll personally be a little less forgiving when trying to frame a case for any of these.
In summary, trainer form is much more nuanced than "Charlie Farley had a winner yesterday so he's in form". Combining longer-term early season performance with recent evidence based on PRB might be a good way to get a better handle on the subject.
Price Movement
A much shorter section here. How can we know if a horse is expected to run well? Look for the blue on the odds grids! This is actually not a terrible strategy in general, but at this time of the year - when punters not connected to stables must take fitness on trust - the markets are a really helpful barometer.
The problem with betting 'blue' horses is that by definition we've already missed the price. Furthermore, it is often the case that such horses drift back out again closer to the off - those subsequent drifts do not stop horses winning!
I religiously check the odds grids at this time of year, especially for less obvious horses which I then try to 'reverse engineer' a form case around.
The Geegeez ODDS tab only starts to show blue (shortening) and pink (drifting) from 9am on race day. We deliberately ignore the cheap moves overnight, before BOG (for those who can get it) comes in and at a time when a very small amount of money can move a horse's price materially. You can still see that price movement on our grids by clicking the little coloured chart icon:
That will open a window displaying either a table or graph (it remembers which one you last looked at), as follows:
Table view of odds movement since first show the night before
Note that we also don't clutter up the table with millions of rows showing tiny odds moves back and forth - who needs or wants that? Instead, we publish a couple of overnight price rows, then a morning (7am) row, and then hourly from 9am, and then every 15 minutes from one hour before race time when prices may fluctuate more meaningfully and frequently.
In my opinion, that's a much better digest of the price movement of a horse or race, and a lot easier to absorb.
Here's the graph view:
Odds chart, configurable to view all or some runners; and best or average price change
There's a bit more going on here with various configuration options. You can vary the start of the time period, choose average odds or best available, and add/remove horses from the view. Hovering over any line on the chart will display the odds for all chart lines (runners) at that point in time.
It's really useful and, if you're not currently using this tab, I'd recommend you start doing so.
What else?
What else should we consider at this time of year perhaps more so than generally? Well, one to think about is the influence of draw and run style. I've written about this ad nauseum, as has Dave Renham. You can check out much of our work by typing 'draw' or 'pace' or 'run style' into the search box on this page.
Specifically for tomorrow's big mile handicaps, the Lincoln and Spring Mile, the draw chart looks like this (16+ runners, between good and soft, handicaps):
Doncaster 1m handicaps, 16+ runners good, good to soft or soft, 2009+
The main blue line represents PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediately neighbouring stalls - so, for stall 3, it's the average PRB of stalls 2, 3 and 4). This is a way to flatten out any daft-looking outliers and attempt to make things vaguely meaningful.
50%, or 0.500, is a figure meaning runners from a stall were beaten by as many rivals as they beat; so more than 50% is positive, less than 50% is negative. Positive meaning can start to be implied at around 55% (depending on the size of the sample) and negative at around 45%.
What is noteworthy from this chart, then, is that virtually the entire line exists between 0.45 and 0.55. One might argue that close to either rail is a positive - as it often is at many courses in huge field straight track races - and that right in the middle is no man's land. Having said that, here are the winning stall numbers of the Lincoln and Spring Mile since 2013, in numerical order:
You can win from anywhere, but the middle third has had the toughest time of it overall.
At this time of year more generally, keep an eye on any potential changes to draw biases: there can be a small edge before the market fully catches on. For example, when Chester introduced a false rail on the bend into the straight it reduced (though failed to eliminate) the inside draw bias. That was an opportunity to get solid value on wider berthed horses whose win chance was a little underestimated. It still is to a small degree but, like everything in the dog eat dog world of punting, the market corrects soon enough.
Keep an eye out for the next material change.
And finally...
I had hoped to share a major new addition ahead of the start of the flat season, but it's not quite ready. We should have it online next week and, without explicitly stating what it is, here's a sneak preview - you'll be able to figure it out!
Good luck with your flat season play. Obviously, geegeez has you increasingly well covered - check out our brand new whizzy bangy sales letter if you're not yet on board and see if there's anything that can maybe help you (hint: there is!).
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Migration_Lincoln2023.png318830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-28 10:27:532025-03-28 12:20:01How to Play the Early Days of the Flat Season
How ironic! As Gary Wiltshire, against all the odds, financial and physiological, makes it into his 70’s almost thirty years after being blown out of the water by Frankie Dettori’s seven-out-of-seven through-the-card feat at Ascot in 1996, his Italian nemesis is suing for bankruptcy.
Despite alleged earnings in the UK of £15 million, (and the rest! some might say) the former multiple UK champion jockey has now relocated to collect dollars from his share of rides and prizemoney, first in California and now in Florida. Meanwhile, a reassuringly relaxed Gary sits quietly in a comfy chair at Chelmsford races, doing what he’s always done, taking people’s bets and paying out with a smile when they win.
Everyone at the races knows Gary. You could hardly miss 37 stone of humanity in one body. Not that he’s that big anymore, just a cuddly 25 stone or so – maybe?
The inevitable question anyone marching up to him for the first time over the past 29 years has been about that day at Ascot and the £1.4 million it cost him. As he says: “Leaving me with two grand in my back pocket”. Those 10XL suits do have large pockets all round!
I was close to the action that day at Ascot when the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Fujiyama Crest had made all the running in the concluding Gordon Carter Handicap under 9st10lb, holding on by a neck from the Pat Eddery-ridden Northern Fleet, trained by Guy Harwood to whom he was conceding 18lb.
Seven out seven meant I would have to write an extra short chapter about the day, ascribing it to the jockey whose book, A Year in the Life of Frankie Dettori, was already in type. Not the computerised stuff you could change with a few taps on a keyboard as now, but real hot metal in lines of type.
We did it. Frankie “wrote” the additional words as he had the rest of the book. I got a mention along with other acknowledgments and that was that. To think a multiple champion, Mr Racing in the UK for so many years, could ever go skint. But then again, a similar fate has recently befallen Tour de France and Olymics cycling hero Sir Bradley Wiggins so, without being careful, even the heaviest earners in sport or elsewhere can be vulnerable.
Gary Wiltshire operates to a much more prosaic set of rules. “You owe money, you pay it back.” What isn’t generally known and certainly wasn’t to me, was that he hadn’t been struggling with the Dettori running-up liabilities as others were spectacularly so on the day, which I had always assumed he had.
The facts were these. True, Frankie had won all six races beforehand, but Gary hadn’t been drawn in to any significant degree. But, being a bookie second and a risk-taker first, he thought the top-weight should have been a 16/1 chance in the finale that day, as he had been overnight. The running-up situation meant he opened in the market at a very cramped 4/1. Let Gary tell the tale from there.
“I was looking at Fujiyama Crest and reckoned he was the 16/1 chance that he had been in the morning. I was convinced this visored horse would not win, especially under a big weight after his bad run when last but one in the Northumberland Plate.
“When the market opened, Fujiyama Crest was 4/1. Whereas the other layers were going 4/1, I shouted out 9/2. Ralphy Leveridge of Coral wasted no time with £40,000 at 9/2. Bet. ‘What price Fujiyama Crest now Gal?’ 4/1. ‘Twenty to win eighty.’ Bet. I shouted 7/2 ‘Forty to win 140.’ Then I took another fifty grand at 3/1. I was never going silly on the odds as I was shouting just the next price up, only the amount I was taking.
“And then of all people Stephen Little asked for £20k to £55k at 11/4 at which point I asked: ‘What the hell are you doing, Stephen, you should be laying this!’ He was known for cycling in to work, so much so that he called his book ‘From Bicycle to Bentley.’ I wanted to call him to say ‘get on yer bike’ but the bet was struck and he just walked away. When I got round to paying him, he even charged me £4.60 for his stamped-addressed envelopes on his statements. He was a very good bookmaker.
“I couldn’t stop myself and it kept going on and on. Had the race been delayed for even five minutes, I dread to think how much more I would have done. I wasn’t financed by anyone, contrary to some suggestions, I was just playing with my own money.”
Gary ended up in a bit of a haze, but one of the funniest moments in the book came a little later that evening. He drove straight on from Ascot to Milton Keynes dogs – the non-stop betting merry-go-round continued for Gary. As he arrived just before the second race, his son Nicky told him. “Dad, we’ve made a bad start – we lost £17 on the first race!”
Perhaps the most appealing part of his story was how quickly he earned the money to pay back every penny of the £1.4 million – all the result of a wrong opinion and nobody else’s fault. Others would do well not to try to blame their advisers for their downfall.
Gary speaks very highly of Fred Done of Betfred and the ubiquitous Barry Hearn and how their connections with him, providing him with regular work, kept him going so well for so long.
Of course, this book is not just about Dettori Day. Wiltshire’s 50-year career has spanned the racecourse, greyhound tracks, point-to-points, the flaps, major sports arenas, especially darts, and even a fishing lake where he conducted his business, often as the sole bookie (groan - Ed.).
The book will appeal to punters with a strong sense of nostalgia (true for me, along with neuralgia!). Its readers who wish to be transported to the time when the betting ring (alas no more) was the beating heart of the racecourse will get their wish granted. It’s a warts-and-all follow up to his first book Winning It Back, published in 2011. I’ll have to find a copy after reading its highly entertaining successor.
It’s a slight stretch to call someone from Islington an Eastender, but then Dagenham-born Terry Ramsden also describes himself thus, so we’ll allow him that one (just). <Even Hackney doesn’t really count Gary.>
As co-author, the vastly-experienced Paul Jones says: “In these 15 chapters, there is tale after tale, broken down into a series of five or six betting-related stories” – most with a near life-or-death (or rather penury) potential outcome. “Read this entertaining book and be prepared for more than a few surprises”.
You’re not wrong there, Paul.
Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle, confessions of an on-course Bookie, Gary Wiltshire with Paul Jones. Published by Weatherbys Limited in conjunction with Gary Wiltshire, £19.95.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/fiftyyears_GaryWiltshire.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-03-26 09:49:482025-03-26 09:49:48Book Review: Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle
After the thrills and many spills of the Cheltenham Festival attention now turns to the start of the turf flat season, writes Dave Renham. Saturday 29th March is the starting date this year and the crowds will descend on Doncaster for a card that includes the first big handicap of the season, the Lincoln. In this article I am going to look at some early season trainer form and trends. Data are taken from 2019 to 2025, although in 2020 there was no flat racing in the early part of the season due to Covid.
Selected Trainers: First Ten Runs
We see in the racing press plenty of stats connected with a trainer’s recent form, be it the last seven, 14 or 30 days, or their last ‘x’ number of runs. For some punters this information is really important and forms an integral part of their selection process. With that in mind, one question I am keen to address in this article is connected with recent trainer form. I want to try and establish whether the first few runs of the season from a particular stable is indicative of how their runners perform up to the end of April. Also, I will be looking at whether a similar level of performance each year is achieved by trainers up to the end of the first full month of the season. I just would like to clarify that the data shared in this piece has been collated starting from the day of the first turf flat meeting through to the 30th April in each season.
In order to make this piece manageable I have decided to focus on a selected group of trainers who tend to have a good number of entries in the early weeks of the season. This includes some of the big guns, namely Charlie Appleby, William Haggas and John/Thady Gosden.
My starting point was to work out the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for each trainer over their first ten runs of each season. I felt that using the PRBs would be the most accurate way of determining how well a stable was performing over those ten runs. Clearly, I could have used win strike rate but over such a small sample size we could potentially get a blurred picture of how well the horses are actually running. Here are my findings.
N.B. I have combined the figures for the Johnston stable although of course Charlie Johnston is now in sole charge:
Early Season Trainer Form: Selected trainers' PRB figures
Before doing a comparison with their records up to the end of April for each year, the table does highlight that we cannot guarantee exactly how well each stable will get out of the blocks each season. Taking Richard Hannon as one example, in 2023 his first ten runners of the turf season hit a PRB of only 0.46, but last year in 2024 it was up at a huge 0.83. Likewise, the Johnston stable has seen wide variances with three PRBs below 0.35 and two hitting 0.65 and above. Now of course ten runs is a small sample but by using PRBs it does give us a better idea of the very early form of a specific stable compared with other metrics. I believe the numbers shared in this table also help to highlight that each year is different and even if stables traditionally start the season quickly, there will be years that for whatever reason things will progress more slowly. And of course, vice versa.
Selected Trainers: To End of April
Let's now take a look at the annual PRBs for each trainer covering the start of the turf flat up to the end of April. Essentially, for most years this equates to roughly the first five weeks of the season.
Early season trainer form: up to end April annually
As might be expected, fluctuations year by year in the PRBs are now less pronounced due to the much bigger datasets, although two of Charlie Appleby’s figures differ quite markedly - from 0.81 in 2022 down to 0.63 in 2024. Likewise, the Gosden stable saw a big difference between their 2019 figure of 0.71 and their 2023 one of 0.51.
Now that we have these two sets of figures we can try to address the earlier question of whether the first few runs of the season from a particular yard are indicative of how their runners will perform up to the end of April. In order to do this, I have picked out some of the trainers to analyse in more detail.
Specific Trainers: Early Season Form
Charlie Appleby
If we look at Charlie Appleby’s performance with his first ten runners in 2019, 2022 and 2024 we can see he has quite well aligned PRB figures (0.62, 0.64 and 0.66). In 2019 and 2024 he maintained a similar level of performance up to the end of April hitting 0.66 and 0.63. However, in 2022, his PRB figure for the longer timeframe soared to 0.81. That year he had 23 winners from 55 runners up to April 30th equating to a strike rate of just under 42%. From those similar starting PRBs in 2019 and 2024 he managed a longer-term strike rate of 29.2% and 29% respectively. It is difficult to say why those early five or so weeks of 2022 panned out so well for the stable compared with 2019 and 2024 when they started off in the same vein. It perhaps underlines how challenging it can be to predict future trainer form based on a smallish sample of runs.
Mick Appleby
Next for the microscope is Mick Appleby. The graph below shows the comparison:
Mick Appleby: early season form, 2019-2024
The graph shows that Appleby has been consistent in terms of overall performance in the weeks up to April 30th (the orange line) - four of the five years saw PRB figures within a very small band ranging from 0.44 to 0.46. In 2022 he did have a better overall start to the season hitting 0.53 over those first few weeks, and that year he had started fast with a 0.63 figure for his first ten runners. The 2023 season saw an even better start with a 0.66 10-run figure, but that form tailed off quickly ending up at 0.46 for the longer time frame. Looking at this data tells me that the first ten runs of the year for Mick Appleby would not necessarily have given us a good guide to how the next few weeks would have panned out for his runners.
Going back to his PRB figures for all runs up to 30th April, despite having similar ones, the correlation with the win strike rates is not completely ‘positive’ as the graph below shows:
Mick Appleby: early season win strike rate comparison
Yes, the best year was 2022, (16.1%), which correlates with the highest PRB figure of 0.53, but there is a big variance between 2019’s strike rate of 14.3% compared with 2023’s 3.2% figure. This is despite having very similar PRB figures in those two years (0.44 and 0.46 respectively).
As with all metrics, any single one does not necessarily give us the best picture. Clearly in 2019 and 2023 the Appleby runners were generally running at the same level overall – the PRB figures show that. However, in terms of winning races 2019 saw many more winners than 2023.
This type of number crunching is an excellent reminder of why racing can be difficult to profit from. Let’s imagine for example we back 20 horses to win in one month, if all of them run really well but all finish second, we still would have lost all 20 bets.
Andrew Balding
Next is Andrew Balding. Again, I have graphed the comparison between the PRB of the first ten runners with that of all runners to the end of April each year.
Andrew Balding early season form: comparison of first 10 runs with all to end April
2021, 2022 and 2023 mirrored each other with both the 10-run PRBs and the all runs to end of April PRBs very close together. In 2019 and 2024 we saw a similar pattern, with the stable flying out of the blocks in those first 10 runs and then slipping back to more normalised figures based on a larger sample.
When looking at those early weeks of the season up to the end of April, Balding does tend to perform at a similar level year on year. If we look at his win strike rate from the start of the season up to the end of April, we can see that in four of the five years they were between 17 and 19%:
There is positive correlation between the PRB figures and the win strike rate in those four years. We saw earlier with Mick Appleby that we don’t always get that positive correlation, and for Balding the 2022 figures paint a similar story. That year saw a lower strike rate despite a similar PRB figure to other years. This highlights once again why it is a good idea, where possible, to look at more than one metric when analysing a set of results in order to get a broader and better overview.
Tim Easterby
Tim Easterby has a lot of runners but his overall strike rate year on year is quite low, both early in the season and taking the season as a whole. Hence his first 10-run PRB figures are the lowest of the trainers mentioned taking the five years as a whole. 2022 saw a poorer start than usual but, by the end of April, he had pulled back to very similar five-week figures as achieved in other years.
Looking at his PRBs for those early weeks up to the end of April, we can see that there is only 0.04 between the highest and lowest ones. Essentially, at the beginning of the season, Easterby has followed a similar pattern every year with similar outcomes. Not surprisingly his win strike rate up to the end of April each year has been low as the table shows:
Tim Easterby early season win strike rate
Personally, I rarely back Tim Easterby horses even if they appear to have ticks in several boxes. For me, finding good value in his team is tricky. On the plus side, his patterns of performance rarely surprise us.
William Haggas
William Haggas has had very consistent longer-term PRB figures (up to the end of April) ranging from 0.60 to 0.67 over the five different years. His PRBs for the first ten runs are more varied as we would expect given the smaller sample size. However, it seems that, year on year, runners from the Haggas stable perform in a similar fashion. Again though, the win percentages up to the 30th of April have varied much more as the table shows:
William Haggas early season metrics
As we can see, the two highest PRB figures of 0.67 in 2019 and 0.64 in 2023 did not produce the two highest win rates. In fact, they produced the lowest win rates by some margin. 2019 was definitely unlucky for Haggas in those first few weeks as they had 12 second places from their 42 runners that year. Against that, Haggas had only six winners hence the 14.3% strike rate. We talk about luck in racing, and regardless of how good a punter one is, luck and variance are ever-present, sometimes massively.
I would not worry too much about what sort of numbers Haggas posts after his first ten runners this season. We can be fairly confident that his team over the first month or so will run to a similar level to previous years. Whether they win at around 27% or 14% I cannot say, but for readers that back any of his, let’s hope it is nearer 27!
Richard Hannon
For Richard Hannon I want to compare the two sets of PRB figures side by side as I did for Mick Appleby and Andrew Balding.
Richard Hannon early season PRB figures
The orange line represents the longer-term figures up to the end of April and, aside from the 0.47 figure for 2022, the rest lie between 0.51 and 0.59 showing that Hannon's runners perform at roughly the same type of level at this stage of the season year on year.
What I find interesting is the difference between the first 10-run figures for 2023 and 2024, which was huge. 2024 was his best start at a massive 0.83 PRB, 2023 was his worst at just 0.46. However, by the end of the first month although 2024 ended up ‘better’ in PRB terms, the gap was quite small at 0.06 (0.57 v 0.51). Indeed, looking at the win percentages for these two years there was less than 2% in it. 2023 saw a 10%-win rate, 2024 stood at 11.8%.
This is another reminder that looking at a handful of races may not be as important or as useful as some punters/pundits may think; and I am not just talking about the first ten starts of the year. It is essentially the same thing when looking at any 7-day trainer form snapshot throughout the season when a trainer has had ten runners or so during that period. Is that really a reliable enough sample on which to judge how the next few weeks are going to go for the yard in question?
Charlie Johnston
The final yard I want to look in more detail at is that of Charlie Johnston (and its recent incarnations), formerly run solely by father Mark, then by Mark and his son Charlie, and since 2023 by Charlie on his own. Here are the two sets of PRBs:
Charlie Johnston / Johnston yard early season form
I mentioned earlier the huge variances in their opening 10-run figures (the blue line), but despite that the longer term PRBs are all in the same ballpark lying between 0.50 and 0.57. I don’t think the performance of the first ten runners will be that relevant again this year when it comes to predicting what will happen in the subsequent weeks to the end of April. However, we can be fairly sure how they will perform over the longer five-week time frame.
*
Selected Trainers: Win Strike Rates to end April Annually
To finish off let me share the win strike rates for all trainers for each of the five years based on their runners from the start of the turf season to the end of April:
Selected trainers: early season win strike rates 2019-2024
These percentages can vary markedly year on year, as I meantioned earlier when looking at the performance of the Haggas yard. Luck plays its part for all trainers every year, be it good luck or bad. A few bobs of the head in a finish can make a big difference to the win rate; hopefully Geegeez members will be on the right end of tight finishes more often than not!
That is almost it for this week but for before closing I will put my head on the block and predict the win strike rates and PRBs for all of the stables mentioned in this article from the start of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting this year to the end of April. Here goes:
Projected early season win percent and PRB figures for selected trainers
Hopefully, most of these projections will be close to their mark.
Until next time,
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/charlieappleby2-1.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-03-26 05:29:552025-03-26 08:53:01Early Flat Season Trainer Form
We’re in that fallow period between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree’s Grand National meeting, writes Tony Stafford. Not much happens although this time round my wish to see a horse go off odds on for the National early next month will not happen. Inothewayurthinkin was taken out of the race last week.
No doubt JP McManus thinks his other 7yo, Iroko, trained by Josh Guerriero and Oliver Greenall, can do the job in the Gold Cup winner’s place. That seems to be the wayhesthinkin, and with another five also potentially in the eventual line-up, it could be one more for the man whose support for racing and trainers in his native Ireland and the UK knows almost no bounds.
He has last year’s winner I Am Maximus at the top of the weights for Willie Mullins and, a bit lower down, Perceval Legallois, trained by Inothewayurthinkin’s handler Gavin Cromwell.
Gavin has played an almost classical National hand with this eight-year-old, picking up the 27-runner Paddy Power (formerly Leopardstown Chase) over 3m over Christmas and then snaffling another big pot on the same track in a hurdle race over 3m at the Dublin Racing Festival in early February.
Had that been a chase it would have put him into the stratosphere but, like Iroko (10st11lb), he has a nice racing weight at 10st12lb. You wouldn’t put it past JP to win the race yet again with one of these or the trio lower down the betting lists.
What did happen for me though was the always welcome arrival of the new version of Horses In Training. The 2025 book, sent kindly by Sir Rupert Mackeson of Marlborough Books and Prints, arrived a nice few days earlier than last year.
One would expect the horse population to have fallen in these troubled times as well as trainers giving up. The front cover says 522 trainers (538 in 2024) and 17,681 horses, down from 17,906, are listed, so not all doom and gloom by any means. Especially when you consider none of the massive Richard Fahey team gets a mention.
That’s also the case with several teams’ juveniles who aren’t listed, such as John and Thady Gosden’s, so the actual number will be well over 18,000. At an average of maybe between a minimum £350 a week to train the horses and, at the elite stables, nearer £700, plus Vat, and Newmarket (and other, as well as private) gallops fees, it’s remarkable how well the figures have stood up.
The Guerriero/Greenall stable houses two McManus horses other than Iroko, in Jagwar and My Noble Lord. Jagwar was the 3/1 favourite when bolting up in the Trust A Trader Plate, a 20-runner handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. My Noble Lord, a hat-trick scorer to end his three-year-old career with Michael Bell, struck first time of asking over hurdles but has been plodding along nicely enough at a level since then. No doubt there are bigger fish to fry with him. We know JP has plenty of patience.
The double Gs – with apologies to the Double Greens, messrs Munir and Souede – have 108 horses listed at their Stockton Hall Farm near Malpas in Cheshire, only two more than last year. Others have enjoyed spectacular increases, none more so than James Owen.
In the 2024 book, Owen had 31 horses under his control, five of them owned by the Gredley Family, including Burdett Road, also a Michael Bell graduate. He had already won his first two hurdle races for Owen and was a prime candidate at the time for a Triumph Hurdle challenge, but injury ruled that out.
He has bounced back very well to win the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and then, earlier this month, he took advantage of the general carnage of the Champion Hurdle to finish second to Golden Ace, picking up £97k for his efforts.
Later in the meeting, on Bill Gredley’s 92nd birthday, East India Dock, developed by James Fanshawe, was a hot favourite for this year’s Triumph but was beaten in a tight finish by 100/1 shot Poniros, on debut, and Lulamba.
Bell and Fanshawe, respectively with five each last year for the family, are down in numbers but do retain an involvement. Ambiente Friendly, last year’s Derby second to City Of Troy, has moved from Fanshawe to Owen, symptomatic of the way his stable strength has soared thanks to his remarkable achievements so far.
Taking out a licence for the first time in 2023, Owen didn’t have a winner until the 2023/24 jumps season when he had 38 winners. He’s up to 54 this season.
On the flat, again, there were no winners in 2023, but last year exploded to 63 victories with another 24 already in the AW phase of the 2025 campaign. My pal Mick Godderidge is happy that his syndicate horse Carlton has provided two each either side of the New Year over Chelmsford’s 1m6f.
This year’s book shows that Owen’s team has multiplied exactly four-fold. The Gredley family had five listed including of course Burdett Road, but it was probably Owen’s exploits with a later arrival, the Kameko colt Wimbledon Hawkeye, that got Bill and son Tim sitting up and paying proper attention, prompting them to go all-in.
Wimbledon Hawkeye made a winning start at Kempton in late May, then after a couple of placed efforts at Group level, won the Royal Lodge (Group 2) at Newmarket. He finished off with a third place in the Wiliam Hill Futurity, a race his sire won before collecting the following year’s 2000 Guineas.
So, from having a smattering of mainly jumps horses for them in his Green Ridge stables along the Hamilton Road, now James Owen has seven older horses, including last year’s Derby runner-up. He can add to that ten three-year-olds an, astonishingly, 29 juveniles for the family. That makes it 46 of the 124 in his yard. Some compliment, but at the same time some responsibility for the former point-to-point and Arab racing trainer. Phew!
You don’t like to focus on trainers going In the other direction but I was so heartened to see after a few absences, the return to the pages of Brian Meehan’s team. The Sam Sangster Manton Thoroughbreds have been a constant over the past few years and Brian and Sam’s sales partnership has found gold many times at value prices. Brian fought back in 2024 and 2025 and now has 43 animals listed, 22 of them juveniles.
Last year, the exploits of his three-year-olds Jayarebe and Kathmandu, second in the French 1,000 Guineas, thrust him back in the headlines and it was cruel when Jayarebe collapsed and died after finishing a close seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf race at Del Mar. He would have had a big season in front of him as Brian had been careful not to over-race him.
That was the race Meehan had won twice previously as a trainer, including for Jayarebe’s owner Iraj Parvizi with Dangerous Midge. Parvizi renewed his acquaintance with the stable when Sam Sangster Bloodstock paid Euro 180,000 at the 2022 Arqana October Yearling sale.
Jayarebe was one of two Group 2 winners for the stable at Royal Ascot last year, the other being the juvenile Rashabar. He won the Coventry Stakes on the unfavoured far side of the track when the next nine home in a 22-horse field all came down the stands rails.
He ended his season with a staying-on neck second to the Aidan O’Brien colt Camille Pissarro in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere Stakes over seven furlongs on Arc day at Longchamp. He will no doubt be campaigned for the races this year that Isaac Shelby contested as a three-year-old in 2023, when he won the Greenham Stakes and finished second in the French 2000 Guineas.
His owners, Wathnan Racing, have retained him for breeding and he stands this year at Newsells Park Stud in Hertfordshire at a fee of £7,000.
There are so many trainers and so many good young people on the way up too. I used to see young Jack Morland at Brian’s Thursday work mornings when his father was a prominent member of the earliest Manton Thoroughbreds syndicates. Jack has made a good start and lists 15 horses in his care, with Sam Sangster the owner of the previously unraced four-year-old Farrh filly Nature’s Charm.
Sam also has a foothold in his nephew Ollie Sangster’s stable. Robert Sangster’s grandson has 59 horses under his care at his much-improved and sympathetically developed yard at Manton, just a few hundred yards from Meehan’s stables. Surprisingly, only ten juveniles are listed, but no doubt there will be some more waiting to come in from his good breeders’ connections when ready and, like everyone else, the breeze-ups at Newmarket, Doncaster, Ireland and France offer the potential for more arrivals. Let’s wish them all continued success in 2025.
-TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Greenall_Guerriero.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-03-24 05:38:212025-03-28 10:28:30Monday Musings: Horses In Training
With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
The Cheltenham Festival 2025 was, as always, a glorious assault on the senses and a searching test of constitution across four days. The thrilling sport has been covered in detail elsewhere on site and so in this post I'll ask and answer this: 28 races later, how did it go from a wagering standpoint?
The tl;dr is "pretty bad", and now, if you're not from the TikTok generation, allow me to flesh out that two word 'too long, didn't read' summary.
I've been tracking my P&L publicly for many a moon, very definitely not because I enjoy basking in the glory: there is rarely much of that even in positive ledger years. No, it relates more to 'walking the talk'. I set up geegeez.co.uk as a site for racing punters because I am a racing punter. I didn't like the tools available at the time (or the price of those that were half decent) so I built my own. The bare-faced arrogance (and, yes, stupidity) of it!
As ever, it bears repeating at the outset that the numbers are completely irrelevant. Lots of people bet more, lots of people bet less. We are, or should be, all be betting within our means and that's the only context we each need to be personally accountable against. I'll never have a life-changing Cheltenham at either end of the profitability spectrum, and that's perfectly fine.
But the cerebral challenge and the ongoing engagement of the ups and downs as an ante post portfolio is assembled are, for me, life-changing on a day to day, week to week, basis. Most people in our special little world get that, most outside of it don't. How lucky we are to have these little endorphin hits that punctuate the year-long Cheltenham narrative and enrich in a small but meaningful way our general existence? Even when the results are shitty!
Because here's another thing: it doesn't matter how good or bad we are at punting. Luck, and variance, will at times make us look better or worse than our reality, whatever that is.
When Majborough walked through the second last; when first Constitution Hill and then State Man, five lengths clear at the final flight, fell; when Jonbon thought there were no fences in the back straight; when Ballyburn did... well I'm not actually sure what Ballyburn did; when the Aintree-bound non-staying too-old Bob Olinger turned up at Cheltenham and defied his years to outstay the champion; when the 'unbeatable' top two in the Triumph market got chinned by a 100/1 shot that's never jumped a hurdle in public; and when the invincible Galopin Des Champs got hammered by a supplemented interloper in the Gold Cup...
Individually we might - indeed, should - expect these things to happen. But, in concert, they were akin to a wagering - and, for those more, and at the same time less, fortunate than us, ownership - black swan event. But these micro disasters (when horse and rider return unscathed) are the very reason we can get a bet on at the Festival. In spite of the one-eyed half-cooked dogma of most of the preview circuit, there are no certainties here. And hallelujah to that. Except when I've backed them, obvs.
Here's how those horses sent off at 11/4 or shorter at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival fared:
The record of short priced favourites (11/4 or shorter) at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival
As can be seen from the summary at the bottom of that image, five of 20 won for an ROI loss of worse than 40% at starting price (the red line denotes the odds-on / odds-against watershed: just two of seven odds-on shots won).
Feel free to grimace at your own dropped pies there. And, once you've done that, you may indulge in a bit of good old fashioned schadenfreude at my expense. Here we go...
So the question now is, "what will I do differently next time?"
And the answer is, pretty much nothing. The game is all about beating the odds: if you can find a way to consistently beat starting price (or, more accurately, exchange starting price) with your wagers, you will win. Period. That's the simple mathematical universal truth, and it's one that every ante post player knows.
25/1 Majborough sent off 1/2 means a 4% chance became a 67% one. But not 100%. There are none of those, as we were so ruthlessly reminded last week.
The record of horses priced 11/4 or shorter at the Cheltenham Festival 2021 to 2025
Beating the odds is the name of the game. We all have specialisms and weaknesses within that framework. My Achilles heel is a desire for 'action' which manifests in too many bets in races where I already know I don't know (the handicaps and Champion Bumper most notably). But paying the 'stupid tax' to get that action is an acceptable price for me; I generally hope to claw back action losses from the Graded races.
And if I don't, so what?
It's never going to make me rich or poor. Some years I'll be a little richer, and some - like this one - I'll be a bit poorer. But every year I get to engage with a fantastic sporting spectacle, and to marvel at the brilliance of the horses and riders and trainers - and the dedication of myriad staff, and to take the value test.
The Cheltenham Festival is a tiny microcosm of a punting year, but the keenness of focus makes people arrive at disproportionate and often plain wrong judgement calls on their betting approach.
The best thing to do, in my opinion anyway, is to helicopter out and ask questions about whether you found value. And, more fundamentally than that, whether the whole process of looking in the big book of form and wiling away carefree hours trying to locate an angle, an edge, a horse, generated the most important value proposition of all: a bit of fun, and an escape from some of the humdrum of life.
If the answer to that is yes, then you, like me, were a winner before the Festival even started.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.75609212-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-17 10:16:402025-03-17 10:19:21My 2025 Cheltenham Festival Betting P&L
Make no mistake. It was another Cheltenham bloodbath for the UK horses. Even if the first day’s four wins offered a crumb of comfort. It was only four beats three because once Constitution Hill fell halfway round in the Champion Hurdle, it needed another catastrophe from State Man to gift the race to Golden Ace.
Fair play to Jeremy Scott, having the audacity to run the seven-year-old mare Golden Ace against the stars. She had won five of her seven starts over hurdles yet, on 144, she languished 31lb lower on official ratings behind Constitution Hill; 24 lb behind State Man, from both of whom she was receiving 7lb; and 19lb behind fellow mare Betterdaysahead.
As well as Jeremy Scott’s enterprise in running her here rather in the mares’ race (at her owner’s behest, according to the soundbites) where she would have encountered (and likely been put in her place) by the peerless Lossiemouth, the UK also picked up, via the James Owen-trained Burdett Road, a touch short of £100k for second. He was a 66/1 shot with no-hoper Winter Fog, presumably there to pick up a few quid place money for the voracious, but very pleasantly so, Willie Mullins. His third place earned just short of 50 grand, amounting to a quarter of all his earnings in 26 races.
The one-two-three were respectively 25/1, 66/1 and 150/1 and if you expected a bumper payout on the Tricast, using the old multiplier formula, you would have been disappointed. It was not much more than 4000/1, ten times the Exacta, but then the firms these days are too cute to resort to outdated models for payouts.
It was a week when the “certainties” by and large proved anything but. Even before Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle, another of the meeting’s “knocking” bets, Majborough, came unstuck in the Arkle Chase. The potential for a proper race and one that would possibly have been the highlight of the meeting evaporated when Sir Gino was scratched, leaving Majborough as the two-to-one on favourite on the day, the same price as Constitution Hill would be later.
Majborough threw away his chance with a couple of major errors and some lesser ones. Jango Baie, for the Henderson/de Boinville team, stepped in for early meeting confidence, soon to be punctured by the Champion Hurdle misadventure.
Another odds-on saviour for the bookmakers was Jonbon in the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Day Two. One awful mistake left him with too much ground to make up and the way he did try to retrieve it still left many believing his status as the best two-mile chaser in training hadn’t been deposed. I would question that because of the terrific performance of Barry Connell’s Marine Nationale.
Marine Nationale had won the opening race at the 2023 Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, ridden by the late Michael O’Sullivan, and this year that race was renamed in his honour. Emotional and its variants are words over-used in sports writing, but there was fully deserved and deeply felt emotion aplenty all around Cheltenham, re-doubled when Jazzie Matty, Michael’s winner in the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle that same day in 2023, also repeated a win, this time for Cian Collins rather than Gordon Elliott, in the Grand Annual.
I was talking to Brian Meehan the other day. He told me he was a second cousin to the brilliant young jockey and says his relative’s death had been the “most awful news we’ve had around the racing world for many years. He was so young and it happened in a flash. It was a sad, sad day.”
I’m sorry, I can’t be dealing with the “looking down on us” attitude, in full flow in relation to the late John Hales after the Sir Alex Ferguson mob had their big win at the meeting with Caldwell Potter which made all impressively from the front in the Grade 2 Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase under Harry Cobden.
That brought a £64k win prize to be shared among such luminaries as Sir Alex, the late Mr Hales’s estate, Fred Done et al.
If a race is worth £64k to the winner, possibly £55k will go to the owners. Caldwell Potter was bought out of the Gordon Elliott stable last year for €740k. He would need to win another ten at a similar level to get close to the purchase price and there’s nothing in the way of stud fees to be derived from him, so it’s prizemoney or bust.
Such is the tangled logic of racing – probably derived from football where £20 million players can be described as “for nothing” – that listening on the car radio that day, as I had an important errand to fulfil, I heard at least two otherwise sane individuals declaring him “well worth the money”. Not if it was yours, mate!
The James Owen/Gredley team, delighted with Burdett Road’s effort, went into Friday’s Triumph Hurdle on father-figure Bill’s 92nd birthday – so he’s even older than me, just! – with high hopes for East India Dock.
True, he had a smart domestic opponent in the Henderson-trained and twice-raced unbeaten ex-French Lulamba to beat, but he seemed to have the rest covered. Especially so as Willie Mullins had not revealed any of this season’s expensive French intake worth much more than a hill of beans, as they used to say. Still 5/4 did look a trifle short.
But when Willie doesn’t have obvious quality, as with Fact To File, maybe the most impressive by the Thursday of the week, he can always call on quantity. In the old days, before the insidious opportunity of the Fred Winter, all the good juveniles went for the Triumph and the last thing that could have happened would have been a newcomer getting into the race.
But so limited are the expectations, particularly of the home team, that Mullins (a) could be allowed to run 11 in one race, something I abhor, and (b) could saddle three of them for the first time over jumps.
Much was made of the 100/1 win of Poniros, a 200,000gns buy out of the Ralph Beckett stable from where it ran in the colours of Amo Racing. Here it sported the blue of Tony Bloom, owner of Brighton and Hove Albion FC. Nobody I spoke to beforehand dreamt he was worth the buying price. In the words of the radio commentators from the day before, he was “a snip” or “a gift”. Time will tell but he picked up East India Dock at the last and kept going better than Lulamba on his way to ten wins on the week for his trainer.
There is method in his madness. Last year, Mullins had the Triumph one-two with Majborough and Kargese. Before the Triumph, the filly Kargese already had a rating of 141. She went on to be second to Sir Gino at Aintree and won the Grade 1 juvenile at Punchestown. Her form this season amounted to one run in the UK, a promising second to Take No Chances, who had been an excellent third to Lossiemouth on the meeting’s opening day when her rating of 140 looked idiotically low. That run showed it should have been much nearer 150.
What was Kargese’s mark on Friday? You’ve got it, still 141 after her second in the Triumph and at Aintree, a Grade 1 win at Punchestown and a solid first run back in the UK.
There was an equally give-away mark in the meeting finale, the race that finally got Gordon Elliott off the mark after a frustrating week. Wodhooh, winner of all six of her races over jumps, using some soft touches over here on the way, and hardly harming her mark, also ran off 141 in the Martin Pipe. Again, she should have been nearer 150. Our horses win a race or two and go up in lumps, their Irish counterparts get a much easier ride. We mustn’t upset them!
One race that Mullins would have expected to win was a third Gold Cup, but Galopin Des Champs was rendered statuesque from the last fence by Inothewayurthinkin. Much was made of the 25 grand it cost JP McManus to supplement the Gavin Cromwell-trained seven-year-old – a fiver to you or me? He was rated 17lb his rival’s inferior but beat him six lengths at levels. The Grand National looks a formality with its much more park-like nature these days, assuming this effort hasn’t left its mark. I hope he runs again, I’d love to see an odds-on shot in the Grand National!
The other Mullins shock was Ballyburn in the three-mile Brown Advisory Novice Chase on Wednesday. The 8/13 chance had drawn admirers from friends and family far and wide, such was the anticipation. Instead of winning, though, he trailed home in fifth after a poor round of jumping. Mullins’ scatter-gun approach paid off here, too, Lecky Watson at 20/1 doing the honours.
*
There was other racing going on elsewhere last week, and Hughie Morrison was apoplectic at the non-publicised so-called rule from the BHB that when only three are declared for a race at the 48-hour stage, that race is abandoned. He had his improving chaser Filanderer in at Doncaster on Friday and soon after the 10 a.m. Wednesday deadline, was told just that. Eight grand in prizemoney swallowed up into the money machine that is BHA administration.
On Sunday, two of the chases at the Market Rasen meeting attracted a deadline total of four runners each. By the time they were listed on Saturday, already one had come out of each race. Hughie asks, “Why weren’t they abandoned at that stage. Another race last week went ahead with a final field of three. I would like to know, whether this so-called BHA policy has ever been notified to trainers, or is it just another example of their total disregard for owners and trainers’ rights!”
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...
No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.
You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.
Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).
She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.
Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.
Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.
Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.
As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.
What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.
Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.
Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.
Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.
We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.
If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).
Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.
Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.
In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148. The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.
This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.
A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.
Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.
A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky
A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]
After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.
Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.
Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.
That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.
Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.
Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.
Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.
D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.
Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.
Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.
A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?
This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.
The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.
First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.
French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.
Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.
Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.
The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.
Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.
Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.
Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.
Ryanair Chase Selection
A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.
Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.
Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.
This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.
Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).
If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.
It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.
This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.
In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.
Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.
Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.
The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.
The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.
Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.
An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.
Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.
Festival Plate Selection
I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.
Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by David Massey.
I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest.
And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.)
The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this.
He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go.
He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease.
And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez?
I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now.
Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same.
I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.
Kim Muir Selection
Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-12 12:28:392025-03-12 18:22:20Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.
That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.
Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.
The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.
Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.
Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.
Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.
Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.
This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.
Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.
Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.
Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.
Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.
23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).
All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.
Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.
Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.
Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.
Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B
The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.
It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.
Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.
Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.
He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.
At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.
And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
Coral Cup Recent Winners
Coral Cup Pace Map
Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.
Coral Cup Selection
Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouthcould give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.
Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.
The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.
The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.
In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.
As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.
In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.
The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.
Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.
Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.
The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.
The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.
In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.
Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.
We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.
On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.
El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!
It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.
Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).
After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.
Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.
A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.
Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.
Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.
Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.
Champion Chase Selection
There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.
Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.
A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.
Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.
Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.
Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.
JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.
Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.
Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?
Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.
Grand Annual Selection
The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Lawor Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.
Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.
Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.
Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.
Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.
Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.
Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.
At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).
Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.
Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.
As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.
The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 14:47:362025-03-11 09:05:49Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
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