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Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...

After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.

Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.

1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!

Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.

So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...

Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.

Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.

But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.

Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.

Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.

But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.

He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.

If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.

Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.

Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.

The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.

William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.

We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.

Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.

There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection

More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.

 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.

Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.

 

Matt's Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.

You can find Tix here.

There are guaranteed £750,000 daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny.

Each day of the Cheltenham Festival, you can win £100 in our best stake-to-return Tix competition. Check out the Tix comp rules here >

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2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.

And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.

So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.

And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.

Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?

I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?

Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.

More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.

Arkle Recent Winners

Arkle Pace Projection

Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.

Arkle Chase Selection

In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!

Suggestion: No bet.

Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.

Check out Tix here >

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2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.

This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.

Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.

Time to dig into other past trends.

23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.

From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.

56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.

Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.

Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.

Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.

The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.

The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.

Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.

While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.

The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.

Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.

My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.

Ultima Recent Winners

Ultima Pace Projection

An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.

 

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2 

Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.

Check out Tix here >

 

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3.20 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.

All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.

The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.

Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.

Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.

Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.

July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.

July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.

The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.

Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.

Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.

Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.

Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.

Check out Tix here >

 

4.00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.

The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.

The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!

Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.

State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.

It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.

Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.

This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.

Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.

The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.

Champion Hurdle Recent Winners

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.

Champion Hurdle Selection

A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.

No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.

Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.

Matt's Tix Pix: Bank on Connie

Check out Tix here >

 

**

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.

One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.

Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).

Murcia has a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.

Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.

Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically.  It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.

Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do.  However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.

The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.

This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.

Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial. 

Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners

Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection

Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)

Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!

Check out Tix here >

*

5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.

Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.

He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.

Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.

The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only  a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.

As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.

November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

National Hunt Chase Selection

The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.

Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1

*

Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!

Stay lucky
Matt

Monday Musings: Preview Season is Over

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I went to a very swish Cheltenham Preview Night in the Bleeding Heart Restaurant, a stone’s throw, as they used to say, from Farringdon Station in London on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford. I had the good fortune to have been invited by a friend and so well was my attendance anticipated, I was designated Malcolm Caine plus 1.

I got there far too early, but then hourly trains do not leave too much flexibility. I hadn’t previously met either Joe Beevers or Neil Channing, the guys who formed Betting Emporium in 2013. They were brought together by their joint love (and success) as professional gamblers and poker players. Not only did they share a birthday, December 9, but in the same year too.

The food was great – as I hoped it would be – although I cannot vouch for the dessert as I had to leave to get my train home. I wonder if Malcolm, or one of the trio of Patrick Neville/Dylan Cunha owners (among them Seamus, adjacent to me, who accepted the white wine that was surplus to my requirements). I wonder also if any of the trio nabbed my crème brulee, Malcolm wouldn’t have – he hates it.

The guest star on my (our) table was compere for the night, Sean Boyce of Sky Sports Racing, a superb, knowledgeable link between the other experts Lydia Hislop and commentator and, so it appears, a real shrewdie-dudie punter in Richard Hoiles, and Channing of course. Looking at Sean, I still wonder why he added that beard to what close up is revealed as a very youthful visage. Maybe he wanted the aura that people think age can add. I can assure him, stay young as long as you can, mate.

I did check with Malcolm, best known Cheltenham-wise as one of the owners and in whose colours 2009 Triumph Hurdle winner Zaynar ran. 2009? That’s nothing, I had one of the favourites in the same race in my colours 23 years earlier: Tangognat ran a shocker on the fast ground that day in 1986.

Arriving early as I did, before the maybe 80 or so all very much close to being punting pros by the sound of the knowledge that emanated from all parts of the basement room throughout the evening, Joe Beevers was the only non-staff member in view. Joe, an amiable chap, tested my suitability for future employment by asking me to join him. I had to allot a pen and the cheat sheet leaving room for notes on each of the races of the week, either on the seat or between the cutlery on each place setting. I elected for the table given my proclivity for sitting first and looking afterwards.

Neil Channing came in soon after. So often had I either seen his punting-wise contributions to Nick Luck’s Sunday show on Racing TV, or heard about them, that it was great to meet the man. In much of my life, I had marvelled that I had never met this person or that, often to be disarmed by their recollection of a specific occasion that I had completely forgotten about. Maybe when I get the results of my recent MRI scan on what used to be my brain, that would give a clue to my sporadic memory.

Neil – can I call you Neil after one meeting, if in fact it was our first? – he thought probably not but couldn’t place when one might have occurred. I’ll see if the hospital can fit him in on a quiet day, presumably after the Festival, on which we were supposed to be concentrating fully.

The Judi Dench reference came out when I or he got round to York as a place he had visited. He and his wife have been living a mildly nomadic existence over the last couple of years, not in the houseboat I was anticipating, rather in Airbnbs.

He and Mrs Neil enjoyed York and I said that I’ve been lucky enough to stay there several times courtesy of former Hackney Councillors Jim and Mary Cannon, in their four-storey “mansion”, compared to Hackney anyway, around the corner from where Dame Judi went to school. I told Neil that and he said Dame Judi also has a birthday on December 9. Small world.

Neil then threw in that Eddie the Shoe (Fremantle) had last summer chosen York to spend the latest of his numerous romantic liaisons – the previous ones presumably not quite surviving his mania for Fulham Football Club. Eddie was one of the earlier regular casual subs on my desk at the Daily Telegraph in the days when I was Racing Editor – thus 1979-1990, exactly duplicating Margaret Thatcher’s time as Prime Minister.

Another aside – my birth-twins story beats yours, chaps. I shared at school a birthday with a boy called Tony Zahl. Not only was he born on March 4, 1946, and had the same first name as mine, he was even in the same house at Central Foundation school, 1.3 miles east along Clerkenwell Road at the Old Street/City Road junction.

Tony, more recently known as Peters, had two good friends, brothers Steve and Kevin Howard. Many years after our school days, we bumped into each other at a racecourse and as Tony’s love of going racing waned, Steve and Kevin became close friends, even staging two Cheltenham Preview nights in Billericay. Steve found a couple of “last-ditch” mortgages for me, Kevin provided the shellfish for our regular Friday of Cheltenham – once I’d left the DT – betting sprees in the Chequers pub in Billericay.

I digress, as I expect you noticed.

For most of the time during the analysis of the major races of the week – I was off before we got to the events where maybe the odd GB-trained horse might take a hand - I marvelled at the knowledge spontaneously exhibited all around the room.

Malcolm had another edge on me there as among the minor partners in Zaynar was Michael Buckley, and my friend had spoken to him recently. He elicited from him the news that Constitution Hill “has never been better!”

Not only is Lydia Hislop fantastic in her role, often (what delight) in tandem with Ruby Walsh, she too has an encyclopaedic knowledge, and impressive memory to go with it. Who would have believed that from his little office just off from Arsenal’s old Stadium in Highbury, Mark Popham could have launched the careers of Lydia and Rishi Persad, not to mention Ed Prosser, horse sales reporter for the Racing Post for many years and then the UK representative for Keeneland sales? I can imagine worse jobs than that considering I went there 40 or 50 times in my journalistic and owner representation years.

Next to Lydia on her table was one more proper expert, Paul Jones, another whom I’d never met. As promised last week, editor Matt Bisogno gave me Gary Wiltshire’s book, “Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle”, sub-titled “confessions of an on-course bookie” which Paul Jones co-wrote.

I’ve known Gary for most of those ever-stretching decades and still run into him when I go to Chelmsford, maybe a far cry from Dettori Day and Gary’s calling card £1.4 million loss, but it’s still part of the same stretch fabric.

Paul Jones inserted his two-penn’orth through the evening, and like everyone of this hand-picked gathering, he was totally clued up.

In between one of the small intervals I asked him: “Are you the Paul Jones that co-wrote Gary Wiltshire’s book?” Then we were away. I must say, I didn’t get sent the first one either and haven’t read it. I do feel it’s good that Paul came out flat about his involvement and you can see a journalist’s hand in the deal. What I didn’t like was when prices of odds-on shots are listed as 1/2 on – rather than 2/1 on or plain 1/2 as I’m sure the star of the book would say and has said every day of his colourful life.

If you are looking for lots of pictures, forget it. The type face is unspectacular but easily readable. Go get one, he’s 70 now, with his share of health issues, some not unconnected of course to his once weighing in at 37 stone! The belly on the telly as the Sun branded him in those days. The book is published by Weatherbys Ltd and at £19.95 it’s a good read.

I started this piece about the only preview night I’d been to this year, because many in which I’ve been involved were on the Monday night before each Cheltenham meeting at the Bedfordshire Racing Club. We had most of the runners by then and the club’s long-time president, Howard Wright, always declared it “The best of the previews” – his words not mine! We went back all that time since 1979 when I invited him to come as my Deputy Racing Editor at the Daily Telegraph.

Such was his obvious ability that he moved on to bigger things at the Racing Post and was still connected with that paper when, sadly, he died last year. He filled the Sean Boyce role, with me, Ian Wassell of Corals, and BHA two-mile hurdles handicapper David Dickinson as the usual panellists.

David, it seems, was one of Gary Wiltshire’s best friends and once he left the BHA Gary relates that he was free to bet again. Like Neil Channing, Lydia Hislop and the rest from Saturday night, he knows his way around the Betting Jungle. It may be a Jungle, but it was fun reading about Gary’s life and how he’s survived it so spectacularly for such a long time. For me, though, Saturday night was as much about remembering Howard as anything else.

 - TS

How to play the Cheltenham Festival Placepot

/in /by

With four days of fierce sport at the Cheltenham Festival looming in the headlights, and much of the form study complete, now is a great time to think about strategy.

Availing of any bookmaker concessions to which you're still entitled is a no-brainer, and the best I'm aware of to date on that score is the tote's "money back as a free bet if second", which will be honoured on all 28 Festival races. Allied to their guarantee to at least match the industry starting price, it's one I'll be using with some regularity through the week.

The other tote angle I'll be playing all week is swinging at the massive placepot pools - £750,000 guaranteed daily, but likely to be closer to a million quid is my guess. And possibly also a crack at Tuesday's jackpot.

To help think about how to play the Cheltenham Festival placepot, let's start at the beginning...

Getting set up

The first thing you need is a tote account. You'll need that to get the free bet if second concession as well, of course. Most readers will already have a tote account but if you don't yet, you can get yours here. You'll probably be offered some other sweetener(s) to open and play on that account, but obviously always check the terms and conditions.

Once you've got your tote account, it's time to know a bit about the way it tends to shake down in CheltenhamPlacepotLand (that's not a real place, obviously).

The Shape of Cheltenham Placepot Dividends

The nature of the Festival is that some days feel harder to bet than others; and that's mainly, as evidenced by the tables below, because some days are harder to bet than others.

This first table shows the pool size and declared placepot dividend for each of the last twelve Cheltenham Festivals. I've colour coded the 'dividend' column where red is a skinny one and green is a big fat juicy (and almost certainly nigh on impossible to hit) payout.

 

 

Realistically, you'd have needed a crystal ball or a very, very, very lucky Mr Felt Tippy to find a placed horse six times in some of those Friday sequences. At the other end of the spectrum, there have been plenty of meh divvies. The sweet spot of gettable and worth getting is in the yellow coloured blocks. Happily, there are lots of those.

Yearly breakdown

In the next two tables, I've broken down these data into Festival years and Festival days. Years first.

 

 

Last year was a flattish one for dividends, the average and median closely aligned at a little north of a hundred quid. But the year before, 2023, saw a median of seven grand. (For the non-maths buffs, the mean average is the sum of the four days' dividends divided by four whereas the median is the middle value of the four days' dividends when placed in order - because there isn't a middle number in four days we take the average of the middle two values. Hopefully that makes vague sense at least.)

There has been the odd flat year from a median perspective, but eight of the twelve years rounded out above £200; and in a quarter of the years the median was better than a thousand of your English pounds (or Irish Euros - you can play those, too, don't you know).

Which day is hardest?

Let's look at the individual days now. There have been a few changes to the race programme this year, both in terms of race conditions and sequence, the impact of which cannot be known at this stage. If the changes have served their purpose, field sizes will be bigger, and the implication is that finding placed horses may be slightly more challenging - and therefore dividends may be commensurately higher. That's the theory at least.

Here's how the dozen years looked on a day to day basis:

 

 

The means are all over the place due to some massively outlying dividends. Tuesday has a £91,000 for a £1 return on its dance card, for example; that's why median is so useful. We can see that, with a median of just £42, Tuesday is typically the 'easiest' day to hit the placepot.

Following that median column down shows a sliding scale of difficulty through the week, culminating in what I like to call "give back Friday", which of course very much presumes you've anything to return at the end of Thursday!

Anyway, those are the numbers. Tuesday may be a day to go narrow, Wednesday and Thursday are days to sharpen the quill, and Friday might be a day to be lucky rather than good.

Bonus Bunce #1

Value is the name of the game, however you play it. If you play for fun, you'll stretch the fun out for longer if you get value. If you play for funds, you don't need me to tell you about the absolutely necessity of getting value. Me? I'm in for both, and seeing as you're reading this, I'd wager you are, too.

So here are two slices of bonus bunce coming your way this week. Three if you count the tote win 'money back as a free bet if second' concession. I keep mentioning it because it's really very good. Anyway, I digress.

The first bonus chip is Tix, a piece of software I developed with Nige, the guy who built most of the geegeez website, that does smart (and less smart if you prefer) staking on multi-race bets like the placepot. Tix saves, literally, hours of faff if you want to cover the most likely permutations without shelling out a gazillion escudos. And - here's where the bonus comes in - winning tickets get paid 5% extra.

If five percent doesn't sound that much, keep in mind that at the end of the punting year it's comfortably the difference between winning and losing overall for a big chunk of the type of literate racing players found ambling across the verdant plains of a site like this one.

In plain English, if you're playing placepot and you're not staking optimally and you're not getting extra money when you win, you're doing it wrong. Don't do it wrong.

Tix is easy to use and if you have a tote account, you've got all you need to get started with it.

1 If you need to, get your tote account from this link

2 Then watch the two minute Tix explainer video here

3 When you're ready to play, go to the app here

4 Put your top fancies in the 'A' column, with lesser hopes on 'B' and perhaps 'C'

5 Cheer them home

6 Get 105% of the dividend on your winners

Bonus Bunce #2

As well as the above, Tix players will be automatically entered into a competition where one (or more) lucky 'potters will share £100 each day. The winner(s) will be the person who gets the highest stake-to-return multiple. For example, if your ticket cost was £2.40 and the return was £240, your stake to return multiple would be 100 (£2.40 x 100 = £240).

We'll do all the sums so you don't need to worry about that. Just know that I chose this approach because it makes it accessible to all players, whether you stake a couple of pounds (or less) or hundreds. We all bet differently and to different stakes, and that should never matter. So the stake to return method makes it a game for everyone to play.

A couple of admin lines on the comp:

  1. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
  2. Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
  3. The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
  4. Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

 

Please do enter if you're into placepots, jackpots, quadpots and the like. Your first spin on Tix might be a bit confusing but you'll very quickly get the hang of it. And if you want to simply play the same bet you always do - but with 5% extra when you win, and the chance to cop £100 in the competition - just put all of your picks in the 'A' column, and choose 'x1' on the 'TICKETS' tab - see below.

 

 

 

It's simple once you know how. You can play for a little as penny stakes, so feel free to have a practice run today. Here's the link to TIX again.

If you have any questions, just drop them in the comments below and I'll do my best to answer.

Now, let's get this party started - good luck!

Matt

2025 Cheltenham Festival Prep

/in , /by

The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...

Daily Festival Previews

We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!

What else?

As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.

Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.

Offers Galore

There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.

Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.

Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.

N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.

 

 

Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.

William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.

And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.

Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.

Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!

If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:

 

 

We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.

What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.

Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:

Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50

Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42

Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180

Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18

In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.

But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.

A couple of rules.

  1. In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
  2. Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
  3. The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
  4. Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

What now?

Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.

I can't wait to get started!

Matt

Looking at Past Cheltenham Festival Trends

/in , /by

As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.

Introduction

From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.

For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:

2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2005-14

5 winning favourites from 10.

9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).

 

Last Race Factors: 2005-14

7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).

All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).

All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).

 

Other Factors: 2005-14

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).

 

Conclusion: 2005-14

During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.

It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.

 

*

 

Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.

2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2015-24

5 winning favourites from 10.

Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).

 

Last Race Factors: 2015-24

Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).

Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).

All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).

 

Othere Factors: 2015-24

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).

 

Conclusion: 2015-2024

During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.

Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.

 

*

 

The Gold Cup Comparison

Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).

Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:

 

 

This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.

15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:

 

 

These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.

Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.

A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.

Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.

The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.

A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.

There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.

The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.

One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!

From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:

 

 

Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.

Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.

 

**

 

I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).

Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.

Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.

 

 

The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.

 

Champion Hurdle

The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.

As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:

 

 

The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.

The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:

 

 

This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.

Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.

- DR

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night 2025 Notes

/in , /by

In front of a full house of keen racing fans, London Racing Club's brains trust assembled.

They were Lydia Hislop (LH), Matt Tombs (MT), Jamie Benson (JB), and maintaining order, Lee Mottershead (LM).

What follows are the notes I managed to make from their thoughts.

Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

  • LH: Kopek des Bordes (KdB) will have to replicate his last race form. Bit edgy, and Supreme a test of temperament. By far the best horse in the field on what we've seen. Karbau is talented, each way or without favourite.

  • MT: KdB at DRF was a 'wow' race but a little worried about the preliminaries at Cheltenham. Won’t shorten much in the minutes before the race so that’s the time to bet him. Workahead e/w: Don't know his level of form but his last race has worked out, he did it well and is unexposed.

  • JB: At the prices want to take on KdB.  Workahead Christmas form looks strong.

Arkle

  • MT: Majborough "most likely winner of the week." Might be a very small field.
  • JB: Maj looks "bar a fall."
  • LH: Maj very likely winner. L'Eau de Sud opposable. Second best form is Touch Me Not if he runs here. Would quite like to see Only By Night in here, too.

Mares' Hurdle

  • MT: "My source has been backing Lossiemouth for Mares ante post". But what sort of form is she in after that fall last time? If she doesn't run, I'm against Jade de Grugy. Instead, split stakes between Golden Ace (Kingwell form is good) and Kala Conti. They went quickly last time, and KC, close to the pace, hung tough conceding weight to July Flower.
  • LH: Lossie is miles clear on form. JdG is a player. KC ran great against the pace at DRF and is perhaps the value.

Champion Hurdle

  • LH: Brilliant race prospect. Constitution Hill cannot be "better than ever", but his near best might be enough. Brighterdaysahead will be a tough challenger, might drift on the day, and she’s backable if she does.
  • JB: Constitution Hill is "your absolute made in a test tube" Champion Hurdler. Price would dictate whether CH or BDA is the bet.
  • MT: Believe Nicky Henderson will have left plenty to work on and expect CH to improve notably. The "vibes" feels like he's back close to his best. You can have close to Evens and that might look a very big price teatime on Tuesday.

"Shoulder Races"

  • JB: Fred Winter - Outforastroll/Holy See race is high-class form, interesting; Murcia also interesting here. Ultima - Farouk d'Alene (100/1 shot), small throwaway bet. NH Chase - Will Do weighted to go well and this should suit.
  • LH: Ultima - Farouk d'Alene does have latent ability, but Whistle Stop Tour from Lucinda Russell factory. Novice, strong stayer, form solid. No view in Fred Winter but like Gericault Roque in the NH Chase.

Wednesday

Turners Novices' Hurdle

  • MT: Turn of foot usually needed rather than stamina, but theory might not hold up this year. Potters Charm form may not be strong enough. Suspect Final Demand might gun forward. Think Irish form is stronger than the British. The New Lion form might be overrated. Perhaps The Yellow Clay is the one: felt he quickened and then got tired at Naas last time.
  • LH: Really like Final Demand, but a quick ground steadily run Turners might not suit ideally. Good stayer. In steadily run race, TNL a better option but TYC is a value play against both.
  • JB: TYC pick of top three, but James's Gate, rated 135, would normally be exploited by Martin Brassil in a handicap. Bit of a tip perhaps.

Brown Advisory

  • JB: Taking on Ballyburn and Dancing City with Croke Park. Dual Grade 1 winner, outpaced over 2m5f last time.
  • MT: Don’t think Ballyburn will stay, he's opposable - DC very likeable but might be vulnerable to a better turn of foot. Betterdaysahead will be annoying if he wins. At big prices, Gorgeous Tom is interesting, as to a lesser degree is Asian Master stepping up a mile in trip.
  • LH: On instinct, thought Ballyburn might be a very good 3-miler. Ground might not be that testing and Wednesday likely to be quickest turf. Poor value but likely winner. Elsewhere, Betterdaysahead is a proper stayer. Can see Gorgeous Tom argument.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC)

  • MT: Jonbon good enough to win a CC but overall not sure. Feel he’s 3 or 4lb less good at Cheltenham. Deep enough race - Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Solness. Last named is fascinating, could be "this year’s Flooring Porter". Was going quick at DRF and quickened again when MN came to him. Against MN. 40/1 NRNB Qulixios thumped MN first time up this season; if he turns up he's got a win chance, never mind e/w.
  • LH: Jonbon is at his absolute peak this season. I don't buy the theory that he needs to go right-handed; rather, I feel that's a function of most of the British two-mile Grade 1's being run on right-handed tracks. So it's coincidence. His Cheltenham runs can all be excused: too aggressively ridden vs. Constitution Hill in the Supreme; beaten by an on-song El Fabiolo in Arkle (but he’s gone on from his novice form and El Fab hasn’t); seasonal debuts for Shloer so unlikely at peak (though his 2023 win is not far off his upper efforts); and in a holding pattern when a nervier type than he is now in rerouted 2024 Clarence House when also ridden sub-optimally by new rider. Lots of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase and I don't really want to bet him (or lay him!) Gaelic Warrior might have an issue in his throat (rumour) but would need it wet anyway. Found A Fifty might be overpriced. Suited to quickish ground. Energumene might be a backable price on the day with so many naysayers on the circuit.
  • JB: MN looks reasonable on his Supreme win. Blood Destiny crying out for a fast run two mile race.

Cross Country Chase

  • MT: Believe top weights will continue to dominate as they did when the race was a limited handicap previously. Galvin looks a fantastic bet. "Feel he should almost be an even money job"!

"Shoulders"

  • LH: Touch Me Not - Grand Annual.
  • JB: The Other Mozzie - Grand Annual. Bet of the Day is Colonel Mustard at 33/1 in Coral Cup.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase

  • LH: Il Est Francais will take them along, Protektorat in second, but it's a deeper race this year than last when Protek won.
  • MT: Could make a case for Djelo.

Stayers' Hurdle

  • JB: Most vulnerable favourite of the shorties is Teahupoo. Ga Law could run well at a massive price.
  • LH: It's become trendy to knock Teahupoo. Might end up a fair price. Expecting ground to be softer than predicted (watering).
  • MT: Traditionally a Teahupoo fan. But got a bit twitchy since. If he drifts, he might be a bet, but he’s short enough at the moment. Lucky Place is an improving 6yo with form that has worked out well. Just about the only progressive horse in the race. Looks very solid e/w.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Nine Graces, Kim Muir - "Bet of the Day." Idem in the Pertemps worth a look.
  • MT: FeetofaDancer in Pertemps has a similar look to Paul Nolan's winner, Mrs Milner.
  • LH: Git Maker and Aworkinprogress interesting wherever they run. Galileo Dame in the Dawn Run if she goes there. Also Air Of Entitlement in that race might be ovoerpriced.

Friday

Gold Cup

  • LH: Galopin Des Champs just wins, doesn't he? Can win off any pace, on any ground. Monty's Star has upside: improved from a moderate start to season and given an end-to-end gallop he’s interesting. Don’t think Banbridge will stay.
  • MT: Think GDC will win, really hope he wins. But if there’s one horse who might do him for speed, it’s Banbridge, who definitely has a squeak. Want GDC to have a race rather than a procession. If Monty's shortens in the betting, that could be noteworthy e/w.

Triumph Hurdle

  • JB: East India Dock is hard to oppose. Nicky Henderson saying Palladium and Lulamba are tough to separate. So Palladium might be value. Slight worry that EID may not find enough up the hill.
  • MT: EID is miles the best horse on form and is overpriced even at 2/1. But how good are the Irish juveniles? 9 of the last 12 Triumph winners came from Dublin Racing Festival Spring Juvenile, only three won there. From that race, Hello Neighbour is 5/1, Galileo Dame 16/1 but there's not that much between them.
  • LH: "Palladium jumps like an entire!" EID has by far the best form and should be shorter.

Albert Bartlett

  • LH: Not got handle on this race. Wingmen seems fairly solid. TYC credible if he came here.
  • JB: Wingmen been crying out for a lead and this is exactly the sort of race he wants.
  • MT: Jet Blue won the best UK trial. Could drift and would be backable if he did. Argento Boy is a "now" horse. Has been a bit clueless but won easily last time in a nothing race. Paul Townend could pick this lad over Jasmin de Vaux.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Woodhooh- Martin Pipe, happy Kopek de Mee goes here because he makes the price on anything else you fancy! Kargese - County, needs faster pace, which she’ll get here. Dangerous off 145.
  • LH: Strong on Kargese in County.
  • MT: Really like Woodhooh. Also Lark In The Mornin in County. Ryehill (Hunter Chase) is a big horse, makes mistakes but has bundles of talent.

NAPS / CHARITY BETS

  • JB: E/W Colonel Mustard - Coral Cup
  • LH: Whistle Stop Tour - Ultima
  • LM: Absurde - County
  • MT: Galvin - Cross Country

Monday Musings: Dirt

/in /by

We all expect there to be a minimal European presence these days in the dirt races on the Breeders’ Cup cards every November as the stark difference between the two forms of the sport in the United States becomes ever more obvious, writes Tony Stafford.

Aidan O’Brien’s attempts to secure dual and enhanced appeal for his potential stallions over the years have come pretty much to naught even if Giant’s Causeway’s honourable second place to Tiznow – when was it? wow, 25 years ago - had been the marker that kept him trying until City Of Troy’s unplaced effort last November.

It can be done, as Romantic Warrior’s near miss in the Saudi Cup and its £8 million first prize showed last weekend. And I think that if it’s going to be any European stable that tries seriously in the future, it will almost certainly be the Simon and Ed Crisford team.

I doubt it will be Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. I had two preconceptions in my mind before settling down to pen these words. First, that the UK stables have been finding the allure (and money) of the Dubai Carnival meeting less and less compelling. And secondly, that Godolphin still like to have their dirt runners on the main Meydan cards.

Yet when I looked more closely there were ten UK-based trainers, not counting Appleby or the Crisfords, who are regarded as locals in action this past weekend on the Super Saturday card in its traditional spot, three weeks ahead of the World Cup.

Pride of place had to go to George Scott, reinvented winner-wise in 2024 and now showing the kind of promise he always exhibited in his younger days. He initially worked with Michael Bell and, after a short time in the US assisting Simon Callaghan, then came back to help Lady Jane Cecil upon Sir Henry’s sad passing.

Scott’s own marital breakdown inevitably caused a slowdown in his career, but he now boasts a yard full of exciting horses and big owners. In West Acre he has charge of a 3yo sprinter that can top the charts in his category in Europe this year.

Life and luck are all about timing. Between West Acre’s second and third runs in his two-year-old season, back in October, West Acre changed from a joint-ownership between Michael Blencowe and Valmont, the latter having in the past couple of seasons become a major ownership force in UK racing, to the outright possession of Mr Blencowe.

He won easily a few days later at Southwell after which he was shipped out for the Carnival. Following an initial second place, he broke the five-furlong course record in a Group 2 last month and then was not far behind time-wise on Saturday.

He was the 4/7 favourite for the £183k to the winner Grade 2 Nad El Sheba Turf Sprint against 14 opponents, among them last year’s winner Frost At Dawn. Her trainer, William Knight, plus Robert Cowell, Dylan Cunha, Archie Watson and the Crisfords were all represented. It was no contest though as Callum Shepherd brought the favourite through for a regulation win in the final furlong.

 

 

Nearest UK connection was Cover Up, no, not the revered (to me) extreme stayer of Sir Michael Stoute’s who extricated me from a hole at Royal Ascot one day almost a quarter-century ago. This Cover Up picked up 30k for Simon and son Ed, while two of Jamie Osborne’s contingent each collected a similar place prize in other turf races.

I began by illustrating the limit of ambition of European horses in dirt races in the US, even where the money is at its most lavish. I wasn’t expecting to find that no Godolphin horse, trained either by Charlie Appleby or Saeed Bin Suroor - the latter having no representation at all on the card - ran in any of the three dirt races.

They were left largely to the home team, with Bhupat Seemar the leading domestic player nowadays, collecting two of the trio. The one European dirt success came from 33/1 shot Fort Payne, handled by French-based Nicolas Caullery. World Cup night will have the customary top US and Japanese involvement, no doubt, especially in the World Cup itself.

Further emphasising the stark disparity, Godolphin had odds-on shots in all the turf races apart from West Acre’s five-furlong contest. Respectively they went off at 1/12, 10/11, 8/13 and 4/9. All those races were won by Appleby, although the 10/11 shot First Conquest and Mickael Barzalona were only third to the other Godolphin runner, Nations Pride ridden by William Buick.

Buick cleaned up on the day with four wins and a share of his horses’ tally of more than half a million quid. Charlie had some not-inconsiderable place money further to boost his earnings on the day. That is assuming that their already platinum-plated winter contracts are assessed financially in the same way as they are back in Newmarket through the summer.

If you aren’t too familiar with the names Nations Pride and later winner Silver Knott it’s unsurprising as both spent all of 2024 and, in the case of Silver Knott, 2023, plundering riches on the other side of the Atlantic. Godolphin’s management knows that the level of older Graded US turf horses is way below similar Group class contests, in the UK particularly.

 An increasing number of horses in the Godolphin blue are keeping the cash registers flowing and multiplying Appleby and Buick’s transatlantic flights, in the comfort of their private jets of course, through the year. Nations Pride, winner of the Arlington Million last year at its new home of Colonial Downs, will be back in three weeks with the target of the Dubai Turf. I bet Charlie would have preferred not to have to face Romantic Warrior on that day, but the Hong Kong champion is aiming there, realistically so.

What of the day’s opening 1/12 shot? Mountain Breeze, easy winner of the Jumairah 1,000 Guineas, last raced in the UK at Newmarket in August when no match for Lake Victoria. The Aidan O’Brien filly completed her unbeaten five-timer at the Breeders’ Cup in November and it will be interesting to see whether Appleby challenges her and the other strong candidates Ballydoyle have lined up for the first UK Classic of 2025.

A couple of weekends ago, Via Sistina, making her return after a break since her latest success in November, turned out for a 7f Grade 2 contest at Randwick racecourse in Sydney and finished only third, albeit just one length and a nose behind Chris Waller stablemates Fangirl and Lindermann.

The Waller trio were back on parade over one mile of the same track on Saturday for the Grade I Verry Elleegant Stakes and the market bet heavily on Via Sistina. The former George Boughey trainee had already recouped all and more of the 2.7 million gns that Australian interests had paid for her late in 2023 and the success story rolls on.

This time, reunited with regular partner James McDonald (Kerrin McEvoy stood in last time), she got the better of Fangirl by a neck with Lindermann a nose behind in third. The £287k brought her overall earnings to more than £4.8 million, of which only around £100k was accrued in the time she was owned by Becky Hillen, the late David Wintle’s daughter.

Dave was a big pal of Gary Wiltshire, and the larger-than-life bookmaker has a life story out. I’ve no idea what it’s called as the Editor was anxious to save the bother (and cost) of parcelling it up and sending it. I will have to wait until we meet hopefully later this week. When I see it, I’ll let you now, especially how he managed to recover from his wipeout on Frankie Dettori’s seven-out-of-seven day at Ascot all those years ago.

- TS

Specific Course/Distance Analysis: Lingfield 1m2f

/in /by

I am a great believer in specialising when it comes to betting on horse racing, writes Dave Renham. When I ran my tipping service back in the early 2000s, I focused solely on five- and six-furlong handicaps. At the time I was doing a huge amount of research into draw bias, and it was when there was still a strong edge to be had over some course and distance combinations.

 

Introduction

Draw biases tend to be more prevalent over shorter distances hence the 6f cut-off point in terms of my tips. Focusing on a specific pool of races also meant I got to know many of the horses inside out, as sprint handicappers tend to run regularly during the year. Therefore, when I began to analyse a race I would have a solid knowledge of many, if not all, of the horses. Over time I started to spot other key patterns which would aid my selection process.

In this article I am going to look at one specific all-weather course and distance (C&D), making a deep dive into the plethora of related facts and figures. One could argue that looking for patterns for races from a specific C&D is a type of trends-based approach; I would agree. Trends, as a route into the horse racing puzzle, is much more fashionable than it was 30 years ago. Now we see 10-year race trends regularly in newspapers, and of course they've recently been added to the racecards here on Geegeez (as well as editorially more long-term for the big races, thanks to Andy Newton's contributions).

As I said, at the beginning of this year a TRENDS tab was added to the racecards which displays a range of information about the most recent renewals of the relevant race. Obviously not all races go back ten years, but it is a really useful addition to an already outstanding racecard. Essentially, then, this article could be considered a C&D trends piece looking at hundreds of races rather than just ten.

I am going to focus on handicap races only, ignoring nurseries (two-year-old handicaps) with data taken from 2018 to 2024, seven years' worth. Profits will be calculated to Befair Starting Price (BSP) with returns adjusted for commission. Looking at the results from a specific course and distance should hopefully give us good insight and potentially an edge over fellow punters in such races. For this article, I have chosen Lingfield over 1m2f.

Choosing a C&D on the all-weather means we are guaranteed plenty of qualifying races each year and Lingfield still hosts such races in the summer alongside flat turf contests. Indeed, there are three planned AW meetings in June in the height of the turf season and probably a couple of meetings where turf and AW racing is combined at the course. One or more 1m2f handicaps occur at most meetings.

This 10-furlong trip at Lingfield is not one I have looked at in depth before, mainly due to the fact that personally I still focus on shorter distance races when betting ‘on the level’. So, let’s find out more!

 

Betting market

I'll start with the betting market. The prices shown are to Industry SP, and the splits are shown below:

 

 

The value has been with horses sent off at industry SP's of between 13/2 and 12/1 with a solid overall profit to BSP. In fact, this group also snuck into Industry SP profit, too, albeit only just. Shorter priced runners have performed quite poorly and, looking specifically at favourites, they have lost over 14p in the £ to BSP. That compares very badly against the average for all-weather favourites at all courses in handicaps which stands at just over 6p in the £ during this time frame.

If I adjust the price groups slightly to create fewer price bands, we can see more clearly where the ‘value’ has been on the following graph which tracks A/E indices:

 

 

The graph also helps to confirm the earlier table's findings whereby the bigger price runners (14/1 or bigger) have been exceptionally poor value.

 

Position Last Time Out

Let's now see if the finishing position last time out (LTO) has offered any useful pointers:

 

 

In the time frame from 2018 to 2024 horses that finished first or second LTO have a good record when racing over 1m2f at Lingfield. The strike rate for both LTO winners and LTO runners-up are above the norm, as are the A/E indices. For both of them to be in BSP profit is impressive. When analysing 1m2f handicaps at Lingfield it makes sense to give this subset of runners at least a second glance.

Sticking with LTO winners/runners-up, those that raced at Lingfield LTO have the highest strike rate, at 24.5% (61 wins from 249), showing a BSP profit of £37.62 (ROI +15.1%). These runners would have secured a profit in five of the seven years.

 

Course LTO

We have seen already that a LTO run at Lingfield was a plus if the horse finished in the first two on that prior start. So what about when we look at all horses? How do the stats for LTO course stack up? To give a fairer picture I have restricted the qualifiers to horses priced 12/1 or less. This avoids the BSP bottom line being potentially skewed by huge priced winners. The table below shows the splits:

 

 

No course stands out as a super negative for the LTO run. The LTO Newcastle and Southwell results have been good albeit from modest samples. It is not a surprise that the most runners in Lingfield 10f handicaps also ran at Lingfield last time out; however, for that cohort to be (marginally) profitable from over 600 qualifiers is noteworthy.

 

Sex of horse

Anybody who has read previous articles penned by me on all-weather racing will know that males tend to outperform females in this code from a win rate perspective. That is the case again here as the table below shows:

 

 

Despite the SR% edge though, female runners have provided better returns. However, this is mainly due to two winning fillies going in at BSP odds of 110.0 and 145.1. If we restrict the results as before to horses with an SP of 12/1 or shorter we see the following:

 

 

Males have outpointed their female counterparts across the board here with a higher win percentage, bigger profits and a much higher A/E index. All in all, I would prefer the horse I was backing to be male over this C&D. One final stat worth sharing before moving on is that females aged five or older have struggled even within this price bracket. They secured just 18 wins from 160 runners (SR 11.3%) for a BSP loss of £38.26 (ROI -23.9%).

 

Class change from last race

Let's next examine whether a change in the class of the race has made a difference. Below I share the win strike rates for each group: those who have dropped in class from LTO, those that are racing in the same class, and those that have been upped in class:

 

 

Horses that have been upped in class have the best strike rate by far and they also have the highest A/E index across the three groups at 1.02. Horses dropped in class have an A/E index of 0.90, while those racing in the same class are at 0.80.

Horses upped in class have also made a decent profit to BSP of £122.76 which equates to a return of over 28 pence in the £. If we restrict these 'up in class' runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter to avoid potentially skewed results, they have still returned over 25p in the £. The evidence has a clear winner here.

 

Distance change from last race

Does the distance raced LTO have a bearing on results when running in a handicap over 1m2f at Lingfield? Let’s take a look:

 

 

Horses keeping to the same distance as last time out looks to be a positive. In fact, if we again use the same odds restriction (SP 12/1 or less) the LTO same distance subset have provided 149 winners from 812 runners (SR 18.3%) for a profit at Betfair SP of £83.49 (ROI +10.3%).

One very strong negative stat to share is that horses dropped in trip by more than two furlongs have won just 4.1% of the time (6 wins from 145) for huge losses of £110.16 (ROI -76%).

 

Course form

Does past course form count for anything? Well, if we compare previous course winners versus non-course winners there does seem to be a difference. In terms of win strike rate course winners have won 13.6% of the time compared to 9.8% for horses that have yet to win at the course. The A/E indices correlate with these figures as the bar chart below shows:

 

 

Now the ‘non-course winners’ group does involve a proportion of horses that have yet to run at Lingfield before. However, the A/E index for non-course winners that have raced at the track before is actually lower than the overall figure standing at just 0.79. Therefore, previous course winners have a definite edge over those that have yet to win at the Surrey venue.

 

Draw bias

Over longer distances the draw often becomes irrelevant, but it is always best to check some data rather than assume that is the case. The optimum draw position here seems to be from stall 5 to 7. This group of stalls has provided a strike rate of 13.4% with an A/E index standing at a very decent 1.03. Compare this to horses drawn 8 or higher whose strike rate is only 7.3% and the A/E is 0.71. The lowest draws meanwhile (1 to 4) have secured a strike rate of 11% with an A/E index of 0.82.

The chart below shows PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbouring stalls), which corroborates the A/E narrative around stalls 5-7 (and indeed 8) being favoured.

 

 

As can be seen from the course map below, the mile and a quarter start is close to the winning line and thus presents only a short run to the first turn. This may explain why high draws are significantly unfavoured, with middle drawn horses perhaps able to find and hold a position close to the lead without using up too much energy so to do.

 

 

Although the draw is not perceived by many to be that important over this C&D, the numbers seem to suggest that higher draws (8+) are somewhat of a negative, with an ideal berth being five to seven stalls off the inside rail.

 

Run Style bias

In many previous articles I have shown the importance of run style. Run style can have a big say in shorter distance races on the flat/AW where front runners/early leaders often have an edge. Let's see whether there is any run style bias over 1m2f at Lingfield? Firstly, let us look at the win percentages for each group. Because each run style group has a different number of runners, we essentially use a wins to runs ratio to calculate the win% rate:

 

 

Front runners do not enjoy an edge here and are in fact only the third best group in terms of win ratio. It seems that a position close to the pace or in midfield is best. The percentages for win and placed runners also suggest prominent runners are the best group, and by a more significant margin.

 

 

These two sets of percentages are suggesting that a prominent sit is best over this C&D with a spot in mid-division more preferable than taking the early lead or being near or at the back early. It should be noted that combining the run style with the positive draw section of stalls 5 to 7 we get the following splits:

 

 

Hence if drawn in one of the favoured stalls - five, six or seven - it is definitely advantageous to race prominently or mid-division. This is further demonstrated in the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) draw / run style heat map below:

 

 

Key takeaways

Below is a summary of the main findings from this delve into Lingfield 1m2f handicaps:

1. SP price range of 13/2 to 12/1 has been positive. Favourites have offered bad value. Horses 14/1 or higher have performed very poorly

2. LTO winners / runners-up have a very good record

3. Male runners priced 12/1 or shorter outperform their female counterparts

4. Horses upped in class have done best

5. Horses racing over the same distance to LTO are the best LTO distance group to concentrate on, especially if priced 12/1 or less

6. Past course winners have a definite edge over horses that have yet to win at the track

7. Horses drawn 5 to 7 have outperformed those drawn lower or higher

8. Prominent racers/mid division have a better record than holdups / front runners.

 

**

Undertaking this type of specific course and distance research can throw up some excellent insights to potentially aid the selection and betting process. If you have a specific C&D you'd like to see some key stats for, please drop a note in the comment section. I will do my best to do some initial digging.

- DR

Monday Musings: Romantic

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It’s official – well almost, the best flat racehorse in the world is a seven-year-old gelding, writes Tony Stafford. True, Romantic Warrior didn’t win the Saudi Cup in Riyadh on Saturday, but he made the high-class Japanese dirt specialist Forever Young pull out all the stops, only getting overhauled in the last 25 yards and losing out by a neck.

The top of the 2024 International Racehorse Ratings was a tie between multiple Group 1 Derby and Irish Derby winner City Of Troy from Aidan O’Brien and the appearing-from-nowhere Laurel River, given an equal figure of 128 after an 8.5 length demolition of the Dubai World Cup field on dirt as long ago as last March.

The Juddmonte-owned Laurel River hadn’t appeared again until being defeated at odds of 4/11 in a Group 3 race back at Meydan where he is now trained by Bhupat Seemar, having started his career in California with three wins for Bob Baffert. He had been an intended starter for the Saudi Cup but was ruled out by injury.

The dangers of allotting such a high score on a single run – true, he had won his previous race at the Dubai Carnival by 6.5 lengths, but that was still only enough to merit a 115 rating – are obvious. In the World Cup, his nearest finisher, staying on all the way home, was the veteran Japanese horse Ushba Tesoro, a regular in Far and Middle Eastern major middle-distance races. He turned up once more on Saturday in the Saudi Cup and the now eight-year-old again put in his best work late in the piece to finish third, albeit ten-and-a-half lengths adrift of the top two.

Forever Young started the 11/8 favourite on Saturday, having gone to the track eight times in his life, each one on dirt. He had been the unlucky member of the trio that crossed the line noses apart in the Kentucky Derby in May, having been interfered with; and again had to give best, this time to Derby second Sierra Leone, when that Coolmore-owned colt won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn on Forever Young's only other start in the USA. Before Saturday, he'd won all six of his other races.

Those runs gave Yoshito Yahagi's colt an international rating of 121, joint 24th and 4lb lower than Hong Kong-trained Romantic Warrior (125) in joint fifth. The amazing thing about the runner-up, a son of UK-based veteran sire Acclamation and a 300,000gns yearling buy from Corduff Stud at the Tattersalls Yearling sales six years ago, was that this was his first race on dirt after all 23 previous appearances (19 wins) had been on turf.

James McDonald, his regular partner, always finds time away from his Australian commitments – no wonder – to go wherever Romantic Warrior takes him. The only regret for him was that the neck, possibly because he took up the running too far from home and travelled five wide at the top of the straight, made a difference of £5.2 million to the horse’s owner Peter Lau Pak Fai, and maybe half a million for his rider’s share, to McDonald.

 

https://youtu.be/wD848csjW30?si=bacAfJir3FqdJbXJ

 

He didn’t let it get him down though, for having pocketed the best part of 300k there, he was at it again in Hong Kong yesterday, picking up the 720k first prize on Voyage Bubble for a virtual stroll around Sha Tin in the Hong Kong Gold Cup. In the words of the immortal Derek Thompson, he won “as an odds-on <7/20> favourite should”.

It made quite a difference to Romantic Warrior’s earnings. Before Saturday I believe, although the internet resolutely refused to give me up to date figures of before the race, showing horses of lesser prizemoney on top, he was already the highest-earning racehorse of all time. The £18.1 million he had collected from 18 wins, three second places and two (honestly!) fourth spots eclipsed whatever any horse, such as fellow Hong Kong champion Golden Sixty, had compiled. I couldn’t find anywhere that confirmed it.

He isn’t just a one-trick Sha Tin pony either, with Group 1 wins at Moonee Valley in Australia, Tokyo last summer and a cantering warm-up for Saturday across the Gulf at Meydan last month. He’s surely at the top of the earnings tree now, up to £20.9 million and change. It would have become an almost unfathomable £26.1 million if Forever Young hadn’t produced that battling late rally under his Japanese rider Ryusei Sakai.

The case for calling him the best in the world, if only for versatility and adaptability at such a late stage in his career, is made easier by comparing the inability of top-ranked City Of Troy to adapt to dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year at Del Mar. There, he was 13 lengths behind Sierra Leone and ten adrift of Forever Young.

It’s a moot point whether Laurel River’s 128 keeps him ahead of either Forever Young or Romantic Warrior on their form via Ushba Tesoro in Riyadh. I’d love the big three to meet later in the year, maybe in the Dubai World Cup next month, when I’d be siding with Romantic Warrior to clock up another few million of those other sheikhs’ money.

*

The weekend’s (Friday and Saturday) domestic racing was dominated by Ben Pauling and his stable jockey Ben Jones, with two wins on Friday at Warwick, where Jones added a third for an outside stable, and a 200/1 hat-trick together at Kempton on Saturday.

Pauling fancied all of those winners bar one, understandably so as Mambonumberfive, overnight a 20/1 shot for the Adonis Hurdle, had pulled up on his recent hurdles debut and was faced by the Prix du Jockey Club fifth and King Edward VII fourth, the 111-rated on the flat Mondo Man, trained by Gary and Josh Moore.

Mondo Man had cost €520,000, whereas Mambonumberfive was a “cheapie” at only €450 grand! After three non-wins in decent juvenile hurdles for Francois Nicolle, that initial pulled up in the Cheltenham race won so decisively by East India Dock didn’t enhance the trainer’s expectations.

But now we saw the true potential of this giant of a horse of whom Ben Pauling said in the morning “he doesn’t strike me as a juvenile type - he’s one for next season”. Mambonumberfive confounded that negativity with a one-length verdict over Toby Lawes’ St Pancras, the favourite half a length further away in third. Ben Jones reported that Mambonumberfive had been less than perfect over the first three hurdles but got the hang of it in time to get the best of a tight finish.

Mondo Man’s connections reckoned the ground was softer than ideal for the gelded son of Mondialiste, but the effort was still creditable. In between the pair came St Pancras who had picked up the 24k first prize for his Scottish Triumph Hurdle victory at Musselburgh last time and earned another 17 grand here. He was conceding the 5lb penalty to his much more expensive opponents.

A 95,000gns Tatts buy in the autumn out of the Martyn Meade stable, the 86-rated flat performer is almost halfway to recouping the investment of Andrew and Sarah Wates in the colours of Andrew’s 1996 Grand National winner Rough Quest. I expect it will take the two French recruits rather longer to get that far!

With an easy win earlier from the hitherto luckless Bad in a chase handicap (geegeez syndicate-owned Sure Touch running a nice race in fourth) and a more mettle-testing success for Our Boy Stan in the concluding bumper, Pauling had the perfect send-off for his short drive along the A308 to Twickenham where England edged out Scotland in a Calcutta Cup thriller.

That wasn’t a bad weekend as the trainer took his tally to 55 wins for the season and more than 900k in stakes. Ben is 260k adrift of last season’s best and with the major money on offer at the big spring festivals to aim at and ammunition to target them, he must be hopeful that he can push the envelope that little bit further.

- TS

More on Price Movement in NH Markets, Part 2

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Last week I wrote the first of two articles looking at price movements from Opening Show odds to SP in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. This is the follow-up piece expanding on that initial research. As before, the data has been taken from the last five full years, covering 2020 to 2024. I have used William Hill bookmaker prices, and I will use ‘OS’ to denote the Opening Show odds.

To begin, I would like to look at differing race types. Specifically, I want to compare chases with hurdles to see what percentage of these runners shortened in price, lengthened in price (drifted), or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their SP.

 

 

As the graph indicates, there was a bigger percentage of drifters in hurdle races compared to chases, and hence fewer hurdlers shortened in price compared to chasers. If we look at non-handicap hurdle races versus handicap hurdle races it can be seen that in non-handicaps 49.4% of all runners drifted, whereas in handicaps the figure stands at 46.2%. Interestingly, this percentage ‘swing’ is reversed when we look at non-handicap chases versus handicap chases. The splits this time see more drifters in handicap chases (44.7%) compared to 41.1% for non-handicap chases. This is a good example of where we can see the importance of digging down into the long grass. We saw this in the first article when noting the differences between certain courses, in the splits for class of Race, and in how the OS odds affect the likely direction of any potential price movement.

I also looked at bumper (NH Flat) races where 47.9% of runners drifted from OS to SP compared with 38% that shortened (just 14.1% remained the same price).

Next, I would like to see there is anything material in terms of day of the week. I am going to concentrate solely on the percentage of drifters on each of the seven days my suspicion being that Saturday will have the lowest percentage, due to having stronger markets. Let’s see:

 

 

Saturday does indeed have the lowest figure which correlates with the race class and course data shared in part one last week. Saturdays tend to have better races when the day is viewed as a whole, and more of the top tier courses are in action on this day of the week, too.

In that prior piece it was noted that Cheltenham was the racecourse that had the smallest percentage of drifters out of all the courses. With the Cheltenham Festival roughly three weeks away, I thought it might be helpful to see what the splits are in terms of runners that shortened in price, lengthened in price or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their final Starting Price Odds at the Festival. Here they are:

 

 

This is quite a change from what we have seen so far. Horses remaining the same price from OS to SP have occurred more than either of the other groups. Horses that lengthened in price have a figure 16% lower than when looking at NH races as a whole. I had expected the percentage figure for drifters to be somewhat lower than the norm due to the strength of the Festival markets, but I had not anticipated as much as 16%. I also did not expect the 'stayed same price' group to come out clearly ahead of the others. It has made me think that maybe I write an article where I do a deeper dive into the Cheltenham Festival in terms of price movements, incorporating early morning odds moves too. More of that to come perhaps.

Time to switch attention now to some trainer data. To begin with here are the trainers with the highest percentage of runners that have shortened in price between OS and the ‘off’. To qualify a trainer must have had at least 200 runners during the period of study:

 

 

13 of the 20 trainers have higher percentages for shorteners than for drifters. When I looked at flat trainer data back in the Autumn only two trainers managed that feat. Four of the ‘big guns’ - Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton - are absent from the list, so what about them? Here are their splits coupled with a selection of some other familiar names not seen as yet (again the table is ordered by % of shorteners):

 

 

It is quite interesting to see Skelton, Nicholls and Henderson with the smallest percentages for horses that have shortened in price from OS to SP. It is also interesting when we compare their shorteners with their drifters in terms of value by using the A/E index. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For all three there has been far better value in their runners that were backed in between OS and SP compared to those that drifted. Indeed, you would have made a tiny profit to BSP on all Paul Nicholls runners that shortened in price from OS to SP.

In terms of negatives beware Henderson drifters in chases: of the 283 chasers that drifted 43 won (SR 15.2%) but they accrued losses of £58.26 (ROI -20.6%) to BSP. In addition, Henderson non-handicappers (any NH race type) that drifted have also proved to be poor value losing over 18p in the £.

As far as Paul Nicholls is concerned a drifter is a bad sign if ridden by stable jockey Harry Cobden. Although just over 20% of them have still won, backing all 834 qualifiers would have seen a loss to BSP of £184.51 (ROI -22.1%). Conversely, drifters from the Nicholls yard not ridden by Cobden have won more often (21.5%) and proved profitable to BSP to the tune of £108.80 (ROI +19.3%). These runners would secured a blind profit to Industry SP of around 6p in the £ as well. Meanwhile, if a Dan Skelton runner drifts at Cheltenham, beware, as only four of the 87 have won for losses of over 66p in the £.

My final piece of ‘drifting’ data for these three trainers comes in the form of their record in Class 1 races when this occurs. Their results are shown below:

 

 

Henderson’s record is modest but not terrible, but for the other two the figures are very poor. I would not be keen in the near future to back a Skelton or Nicholls drifter in a Class 1 event.

Sticking with these trainers and Class 1 events, let us see their performance when their runners shorten in price before the ‘off’. Unsurprisingly, we see a contrasting picture to the earlier one:

 

 

All three have edged into profit with solid figures across the board. Clearly, for these three trainers in top level races the strength of their runners in the market just prior to the off is very important.

Olly Murphy is another trainer who has a couple of stats worth mentioning. Interestingly, his drifters have won almost as often as those that have shortened in price – 18.2% versus 20.6%. Given those numbers, it won't shock to learn that his drifters made a positive return of 5p in the £ whereas his shorteners lost 20p in the £ (to BSP). Sticking with those runners that have shortened in price, when they started favourite they broke even. When they were not favourite losses have been 27p in the £.

Lastly in this piece, I want to focus on Irish maestro Willie Mullins as there are a few useful titbits when it comes to his stats. There are three powerful stats of which we ought to be aware:

1. Any Mullins drifter at the Cheltenham Festival is not a good sign. 100 horses have drifted from OS to SP at the March showpiece of which only 11 won (SR 11%) for a BSP loss of £43.36 (ROI -43.4%).

2. Don’t be lured in by bigger-priced runners from Mullins ‘being backed’. Horses that shortened in price from an OS of 18/1 or bigger are 0 from 54.

3. When one of Mullins' horses shortens in price from OS to SP take note of the jockey. The table below shows why we want Paul Townend on board:

 

**

This article has highlighted some interesting patterns in terms of how the market moves during that brief period between the opening show and the start of the race. I think some of the trainer data for Messrs Henderson, Nicholls, Skelton, Murphy and Mullins could prove really useful and help to point us in the right direction when contemplating the timing / placing of our bets.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Levelling Up

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Much was made when the entries came out of this year’s alleged “levelling up” of the respective teams for the Randox Grand National, writes Tony Stafford. Home stables, tired of the now routine grab of almost all of the £1 million prize money by the Irish, had entered close to half (37 of the 87 still engaged) so would have better chances to keep the prizes at home, went the thinking.

Fat chance. Nowadays only 34 can run, making the task of breaking into that portion guaranteed a place in the starting lineup almost impossible. Of last year’s field of 32 (two cried off with vet’s certificates on the day of the race), only eight were UK trained. In contrast, Willie Mullins ran eight on his own, and Gordon Elliott seven.  Three each from those all-powerful stables started at 40/1 and bigger and they all pulled up. The Mullins trio of pullers-up were 100/1, 40/1 and 125/1: Elliott’s were 125/1, 50/1 and 100/1.

No hopers maybe and, just as possibly, their respective owners fancied an afternoon at Aintree and the privilege of being looked after by the redoubtable, nay vivacious, redhead Siobhan Doolan in the owners’ dining room! More likely, their main purpose was to eliminate as many potential UK threats to the big two stables as they possibly could.

With just shy of 50 per cent of the field, it was hard to imagine their failing to get among the big prizes and so they did. Mullins won it with I Am Maximus in the JP McManus colours, and Elliott was second and fourth with old-timers Delta Work and Galvin.

Their compatriot, Henry de Bromhead, had three runners, and two of the first six home in third-placed Minella Indo, the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, and Ain’t That A Shame, sixth for amateur-riding owner David Maxwell. Only the Maxwell horse does not have the Aintree ticket this time, but the Irish top quartet from last year do. Christian Williams’ fifth-placed Kitty’s Light does not have the entry.

At nine, I Am Maximus will be the baby of the returning team, and he is up 8lb to a top-weighted 167. Second and third are now age 12, and the fourth is an 11-year-old. They aren’t for moving anytime soon.

Two Venetia Williams horses are the sole UK interlopers in the top ten in the weights. Both Royale Pagaille, the second top-weight, and L’Homme Presse ran on Saturday and neither showed the sort of form needed to be feasible contenders at Aintree or, more immediately, in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Royale Pagaille has a fantastic record at Haydock but, predictably, asking him to give almost two stone to some tough staying handicappers in the Grand National Trial over 3m4f there proved too demanding a task. He faded out of contention behind an impressive winner in Nicky Richards’ Famous Bridge, who does have the Aintree entry, as does runner-up Apple Away and fourth-placed Git Maker.

Famous Bridge had been loping along easily in the same race 12 months earlier, when unseating his rider Sean Quinlan six fences from home. The race was won by Gavin Cromwell’s Yeah Man. He returned aiming at the follow-up but this time it was he that didn’t get round.

Royal Pagaille’s intervention in this race had a significant difference to Famous Bridge’s chances, even if he was running off only a 1lb lower handicap mark. Last year, Famous Bridge carried 11st4lb, now he was 16lb lower on 10st2lb. Checking back, he had never carried less than 11st in any of his last ten races over the previous two years! Going as far as three-and-a-half miles, that surely would make a massive difference and so it proved.

So is Nicky Richards planning ahead to the big day in April? Hardly. On 136, Famous Bridge is number 80, five places lower than Lucinda Russell’s mare Apple Away. To complete the trio of unrealistic Grand National candidates from this so-called Trial, Jamie Snowden’s Git Maker in a closing fourth, is number 84.

Famous Bridge did well to collect the £57k first prize. Yeah Man, rated 144 and who unseated on Saturday, is number 61 for the big race. The lowest mark to get in last year was 146. It could happen, but Gavin Cromwell is almost sure to have his sights lowered, maybe to a Cheltenham handicap with the Irish Grand National even more a possible destination.

The other Venetia star L’Homme Presse did his Gold Cup aspirations no favours with an abject performance in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. Jumping out to the left from an early stage, he was soon pulled up by Charlie Deutsch as the Paul Nicholls-trained Pic D’Orhy won in trademark all-the-way style.

Nicholls showed his emotion, first cheering the horse and Harry Cobden home with his inimitable energy. Then, when interviewed later, he showed how much he was relieved at this first Grade 1 success for his stable since Pic D’Orhy won the same race 12 months ago. Don’t worry Paul, nobody thinks you’re anything but a fantastic trainer. What do they say, form is temporary, class is permanent?

Anyway, the Irish do not intend relinquishing the £500,000 top Grand National prize lightly and it seems more inevitable by the day that JP McManus will be making it Grand National win number four.

He has the first three in the betting with Inothewayurthinkin on top at 8/1 for Cromwell, and last year’s winner second in at 12’s. Slightly from left field is third favourite Iroko, trained in the UK by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero; he gets in fine as he’s number 27 on the list.

His latest fourth place in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham last month attracted the attention of the stewards who interviewed Jonjo O’Neill, his rider, afterwards and then issued a lengthy report of his comments. Reading between the lines, it doesn’t seem that they were totally convinced by what he told them, and the 14/1 price about the horse, a seven-year-old as is Inothewayurthinkin, reflects the market’s fear of a McManus “plunge”, if he still bothers plunging that is.

Nicky Richards has been recovering well from the riding accident which caused such serious injuries last year, and his horses have been providing the ideal tonic. As well as the valuable prize so deservedly collected by Famous Bridge in the revered Hemmings racing colours, he has also been having a great time with previously unraced bumper horses.

He even asked me to mention a couple of weeks ago to the boss of the geegeez.co.uk team that he had some horses available for syndication and that surely Geegeez needed a representation in the north of the country! Sorry Nicky, no joy on that one.

It seems that Thursday’s debut bumper winner Upon Tweed had been the subject of considerable interest, and he says, “I’m not sure I’ll be training him for much longer. I’ll never stop being amazed how much money agents seem to have to bid on behalf of wealthy people for prospective jumping horses, but they do!”

At the other end of the scale, the latest Tattersalls Online sale last week proved little short of a total washout. Two or three sequences of around ten horses at a time did not receive a suitable bid between them when the closing time for their sale came up with a few minutes’ space in between them. I made it that only 53 of 137 lots changed hands and many of these at bargain basement levels. The whole sale might have struggled to match what Upon Tweed eventually goes for when that piece of horse trading concludes.

Richards' accident last year is testimony to the inherent dangers of riding racehorses. Yesterday’s news that Michael O’Sullivan, at 24 one of the most promising jump jockeys in Ireland, had died following his fall in a race at Thurles last week, shocked the racing community there and here in the UK, too.

Racing families are uniquely resilient, but such terrible accidents are a constant reminder that the ambulances, doctors and vets that attend every race in the principal racing countries are not in any way arbitrary but rather absolutely essential.

- TS

Roving Reports: Data Driven Drizzle

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It's a wet and cold Monday morning here in Nottingham, writes David Massey, and the news has just been announced that it's been the warmest January since they started measuring such things, which apparently was in 1919. As a slave to the data then of course - of course! - I believe the science when it tells me as such. It's just that the places I seem to have visited during that most miserable of months have managed to dodge any semblance of sunshine, as demonstrated by the fact I don't recall any tracks I attended having to miss out obstacles because of low sun.

I tell a lie - Doncaster on a Friday. Ah yes, I remember it well now. The warmth on the back of my neck as I wrote my notes about the brave and talented warriors about to contest the 0-100 handicap hurdle. A brief glimpse of potential spring, snatched away not two days later as I tried to make my way around a flooded Herefordshire.

Yes, I did one of my bi-annual excursions to the Welsh borders at the end of last month. After making a day trip to Cheltenham on the Saturday and remarking how much the water had receded around the Evesham area since my last visit, by the time Monday came back around it was starting to rise again, and quickly. I stayed in Worcester, by the cricket ground, on the Sunday night (although I didn't realise this until first light Monday morning, when the first thing I saw on opening the curtains was the Basil d'Oliveira Stand) and no sooner had I arrived there than the words "precautionary inspection" were uttered at Hereford, along with the phrase "cautiously optimistic". As I've said before, any clerk of the course using the word "optimistic" in an update should be fined five grand, and ten if they precede it with "cautiously". The BHA could, however, use that money to pay for trainer interviews, where famous Berkshire handler Willie Runnem-Ornot can tell us his horse has had a setback for the Cheltenham Festival, but he's "cautiously optimistic" he can get him back on track if Kempton will let the lad have a gallop round next Tuesday when there's no press about. That'll be two grand please. Cash in a brown envelope? Yes, that’ll do fine, thanks for coming along.

And so, early Monday, Hereford bites the dust, and I'm left in a hotel room in Worcester with little to do but look at an empty Graeme Hick stand and nowhere much to go. I'm tempted to hoik it up to Monmore Greyhounds for their afternoon meeting, but my next stop is Ross-on-Wye, in readiness for Chepstow on Tuesday, and I'd be heading the wrong way. I decide instead to do the sensible thing, and just do some pre-emptive Cheltenham writing whilst drinking more hotel coffee than is probably good for me.

The rain is still falling as I set off for Ross. A wise man would have gone back to the motorway at this point and stayed on the main roads but I'm a romantic idiot with time on my hands and decided to go the scenic route using the back roads. I'm glad I did, in some ways - stunning vistas as I drive in the shadow of the Malvern Hills and I also trundle past someone's training establishment - I still haven't worked out who it was - through one of the villages.

Then, about four or five miles out of Ross, there's trouble. I'm in a village where the only way through it is via a bridge, and that's flooded, badly. I stop and try to work out the situation. Gamble, drive through and potentially flood the engine, or (according to Google Maps) track back almost eight miles and add another half an hour to my journey time? I didn't need to wait long for an answer. A lorry goes past me and through the flood. It's deep, too deep. This is confirmed by a Range Rover who does the same, and barely gets through it. For once, common sense kicks in and I turn around. The Malverns look as lovely as they did twenty minutes ago from the reverse angle.

You know that feeling you get sometimes when you arrive somewhere and think "I've been here before, but I can't quite remember when?" - I get that as I pull up in Ross at my Premier Inn. I know I've been here, but I can't quite remember when, or why. Then it dawns on me. I came here once with a good friend a long, long time ago on the way back from our one and only trip to Ffos Las. We had dinner in the Beefeater next door and then a night of great sex in the hotel. Well, that's my recollection of things. She says we just had a poorly-cooked steak and the only pudding I got was sticky toffee before we hit the M50 half an hour later. I think she's probably right. I suspect I've let my imagination get the better of me. It was about ten years ago, after all. Anyway, I'm here again, and I ask the receptionist to book me into the (now) Travellers Rest next door for dinner.

"You'll have a job. The place closed months ago. It's derelict and being knocked down." That's the end of that, then. Serves them right for undercooking my steak.

There's a precautionary inspection at Chepstow tomorrow now. This journey could be a fairly expensive busted flush. However, some light emerges at the end of the tunnel, and for once it isn't an oncoming train.

To amuse myself whilst writing I've had an each-way Yankee at Plumpton and after a 25-1 winner (in a four-horse race too, all to win!) along with another winner and place it's looking pretty good. I'm offered a decent cash out. I never cash out. Never. But... the cash out would cover the price of the trip, and if Chepstow bit the dust tomorrow, it wouldn't matter too much. For the second time in a day, I do the sensible thing and cash out. Do I need to tell you what happened to the fourth selection? Of course I don't. It won half the track. The only consolation being I did have a few quid on as a single. Still, a bit gutting, although I remind myself the whole trip is now paid for if it all goes blank tomorrow. And as the rain falls down on a humdrum town, as The Smiths warbled back in 1984, it has to be said that looks a very likely scenario.

Tuesday morning. Miracle of miracles, Chepstow is somehow on. I'm actually going to get some racing.

I'm going with my friend Alex who I haven't seen in years. She awards herself the title of "Assistant Media Bitch" for the day, which not only suits her well, but could catch on elsewhere, I reckon. I know a few that would fit that title perfectly. Anyway, we have a cracking day, the highlight of which - for her - was making Richard Hoiles a cup of tea. "It won't get any better than that today", she excitedly shrieks. I manage to find a couple of losers before Royal Jewel digs me out, and then Lagertha is something of a paddock standout in the Mares Novice. It'll be a winning day, which is always nice. I don't have a penny on Jo Lescribaa but I'm delighted for my friend Andy who has a interest in her, and all in all it's been a really enjoyable trip despite the grim weather. Better still, it has rekindled Alex's love for a day at the races. She hasn't been for some time - "the game isn't the same as it was", she says, but I hope she will go racing, at least in midweek when it's a bit quieter, again in the near future. The drive home is a long one, but a call in at the ever-lovely Gloucester Services breaks it up.

Back to the present day. The app on my phone now tells me "Rain coming in under an hour." Any chance of a look at that weather data again, please? It's Leicester on Thursday and Haydock on Saturday for me this week. The Trackside bobble hat will be on, I can assure you. Say hello if you see me, or if it's as warm as the data says, Stop Me and Buy One. Either way, have a great week.

- DM

More on Price Movement in NH Markets, Part 1

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Back in October I wrote an article that examined some betting market data whereby I investigated patterns of price movement from early morning odds to SP in UK NH racing. I felt now was good time to revisit the idea but switch attention to movement between opening show and SP.

This is first of a two-parter with data taken from the last five full years covering 2020 to 2024. I have used William Hill bookmaker prices and, for the remainder of this article, I will use ‘OS’ to stand for the Opening Show Odds.

As I mentioned in earlier work, the OS for most races occurs around 10-15 minutes before the race is due to start. Each horse will have its opening price and then, as money is wagered in the period before the race starts, the prices will begin to fluctuate. Some will go up, some down, some will end up the same price as they started. Price changes are also driven by what happens on the betting exchanges.

As I did for the previous research let me start by sharing the figures for all runners over this time frame to see what percentage shortened in price, lengthened in price (often known as drifting), or stayed the same when comparing their OS to their final Starting Price Odds (SP).

 

 

 

These percentage splits are very close to those I found for flat racing with far more horses lengthening / drifting in price than shortening in price. Once again, the smallest percentage figure occurred with horses staying the same price.

Market movement during this short period before the start of the race is a good indicator of a horse's chance of winning as the graph below shows when we examine the win strike rates of the three groups:

 

 

 

Horses that shorten in price have won more frequently, edging towards twice as often as those that drift. In terms of returns, to Industry SP horses that have lengthened in price (drifters) would have lost you a hefty 30p in the £, while those that have shortened in price would have lost you around 15p in the £. To BSP the gap is much reduced with an 8.6% loss for drifters and a 5.6% loss for ‘shorteners’.

Let me now share the yearly percentage of runners splits for the three groups in terms of comparing their OS odds to their SP odds:

 

 

As we might have hoped the splits have been similar year on year. Readers may notice that 2020 is slightly out of kilter, but my guess is that Covid was a key reason behind this. No spectators at racecourses for around eight months in 2020 meant we had an unusual situation come Opening Show with no oncourse bookmakers taking money. It is also the case that, since Covid and 2020, the starting price is framed more significantly around off-course liabilities than on-course, reflecting where the majority of betting action happens nowadays.

For the next part of this piece, I would like to focus on the percentage of horses that lengthened / drifted in price showing a course-by-course comparison. The courses are ordered highest percentage to lowest. As a reminder, the overall figure for all courses was 46.5%:

 

 

I have highlighted in red those courses that had the smallest percentage of drifters and what immediately stands out is that these tracks are universally considered to be top tracks. In fact, if we look at the list of courses that have held the most Graded races over the past five seasons we see the following:

 

 

These same seven courses showed the lowest percentages for drifters. I suspect there are two main reasons for this. Firstly, stronger markets exist at these courses – more money is wagered (off course, on the exchanges, and on course); and, secondly, there tends to be better overall knowledge of the horses that race at these tracks due to the average class level, making early markets more efficient / accurate.

Thinking about class of race, based on my second theory noted above, we might hope that if we look at the percentage of runner splits within each class, the higher classes of race would see a smaller gap between horses that shorten in price from OS to SP compared with those that lengthen/drift.

I have lumped Class 6 races in with Class 5 purely because there are very few Class 6 races in National Hunt racing. In addition, I have added an extra column which shows the percentage difference between horses that have shortened compared with those that have drifted. Here are my findings:

 

 

As hoped, the theory has held, with the highest class of race (Class 1) seeing by far the smallest gap between shorteners and drifters of 5.3%. As can be seen, once we get to Class 4, the gap extends to 16.7% for Class 4 races and 14.9% for Class 5/6 races. Hence, for those of us who may still take a bookmaker’s price between OS and the start of the race, the stats for Race Class and the previous course ones should help inform us more accurately about the chance of our selection drifting or shortening in the ten minutes or so before the race. For punters, having the overall stats gives us a good 'feel', but breaking things down into subcategories can offer more knowledge and understanding of how prices may move.

My focus now is to look at price movement from Opening Show to SP within different price bands. The figures are split by percentage of qualifying runners:

 

 

These price bands are based on huge sample sizes so we can be confident that these types of figures are likely to be replicated in the future. Possibly the most eye-catching percentages are those for bigger priced runners. Once we get to an Opening Show of 18/1 or more, over 50% of such runners have drifted in price. There also seems to be no difference to the overall norm when it comes to those priced up between 9/2 and 6/1. The percentages between shorteners and drifters are close to parity with a slight edge to shorteners. To see this more clearly let me graph the comparison:

 

 

The graph clearly shows this ‘close to parity’ situation with the 9/2 and 6/1 Opening Odds price band. Expanding this slightly, it also shows that the percentages are closest from 100/30 to 8/1 compared with everything else. We knew already that drifters occur more often than shorteners but seeing these price splits offers further appreciation of how likely a horse may be to shorten or drift. Looking back at the flat article I wrote we witnessed a similar pattern in terms of how the overall graph looks.

To conclude, understanding how a betting market may evolve from Opening Show to SP is an area that is rarely analysed. There are some parallel patterns with the flat findings I previously shared, as you might expect. In many ways this is a positive as it provides greater confidence that OS to SP prices will continue to move in similar ways in the next few years.

My next article will be a follow up to this one, and will look at some additional areas such as race type and trainers. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Remembering the Aga Khan

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The news that H H the Aga Khan, head of the Nizari Ismaili Muslim sect, had died last week thrust me back more than 30 years, writes Tony Stafford. At the time I was scrabbling around trying to buy cheap horses, usually those that didn’t reach their reserves at the conclusion of the Tattersalls’ Horses in Training sale.

In those days, my targets were Cheveley Park Stud, usually well-bred fillies that didn’t measure up to their demanding requirements and would go privately for £500, or the Aga Khan detritus that it would be too costly to send back to either France or Ireland with nobody other than me wanting them. To be fair, the Cheveley Park ones were rarely much good!

I say detritus, but M. Drion, the Aga Khan’s manager, called them “boucher” (butcher) horses, so if I didn’t step in, they would be destined for the dinner tables of continental Europe. Once or twice, both targeted operations even gave them away.

While not a freebie, one such was Karaylar, a son of the Aga Khan’s Derby winner Kahyasi out of a mare by brilliant broodmare sire Habitat. He had been with John Oxx in Ireland, but the trainer of Sinndar, another Derby winner for the owner, hadn’t managed to get him on the track.

I spoke to His Highness by telephone having got the number from M. Drion. He agreed £500 and the cash was duly handed over. He called him a “boucher” horse, too!

At the time, I was regularly passing on my “finds” to Northumberland owner David Batey. In a few years he had done so well that he had a video made up of his “first” 25 winners. Most had cost buttons whereas only the last, bought from Brian Meehan as a 2yo at Doncaster sales for £14,000, was not my discovery. The winners had all been trained by my friend Wilf Storey.

I can only imagine the rage building up in the mercurial owner as 3yo Karaylar ran last of 11 first time on the flat and then, in the always well-populated novice hurdles in the north at the time, 16th of 20, 15th of 20 and, to finish the job, 19th of 21.

That brought him an initial mark of 64. Wilf and I always in our deliberations used to reckon on one run to confirm the rating and then go to work. Fourth in his first handicap, he then won a John Wade-sponsored selling handicap hurdle, at Sedgefield. That was a qualifier for the final also at Sedgefield on a Friday night early in May.

I can remember exactly where I watched it but have no idea where I had been earlier for me to be in that place. It was a betting shop in Bishop’s Stortford town centre. Karaylar started the 9/4 favourite and in a field of 16 won as he liked by five lengths under Richie McGrath, who had also been on him for the previous win.

What marked that race as special was its prize - £7,000, for a seller! Just a four-year-old, we thought Karaylar was going places – he did, rapidly downhill, never winning another race.

Mr Batey was also the beneficiary of another Wilf winner ridden by McGrath in his 7lb claiming days. That was Cheltenham Festival long-distance hurdle scorer Great Easeby, bought unraced for 2k from the owner-breeder Robert Sangster. A son of Caerleon, he was acquired in a very comfortable negotiation, sent to Wilf and won seven races between the flat and jumps.

Our association (not with Wilf) suddenly ended allegedly because the owner found out I had made a small profit on one of the deals. His success rate dropped almost to nothing once he stopped sending horses to Grange Farm, Muggleswick.

*

The Aga Khan was the third member of his family to make a massive impact on thoroughbred racing and, equally, breeding. His grandfather, also the Aga Khan, owned the famous flying filly Mumtaz Mahal in the 1920s and was prominent in racing until his death in 1957.

His son Prince Aly Khan kept the family horse racing business going, while at the same living a film star lifestyle,  especially when he married the actress Rita Hayworth. He died in a car crash, having already been passed over for the title of Aga Khan by his father who thought his son Prince Karim, as he was, would be a more suitable leader. For almost seven decades, he fulfilled the role with great skill and was reckoned as long ago as 2014 to having a fortune of $13 billion by Vanity Fair.

For racing fans, his green and red colours have been a constant even though he had refused to have them trained in the UK for a long time, relying on Ireland and France. He had countless champions in his time; for me, though, it’s always been Karaylar!

*

How frustrating that a week after the Dublin Racing Festival, one of the two biggest stars of the UK team shaping up to see off the Irish challenge at Cheltenham was unable to run in his warm-up race.

Sir Gino, flawless over hurdles, the latest time when deputising for the country’s number one, Constitution Hill, in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and then spectacularly proficient first time over fences at Kempton over Christmas was the absentee. Many had travelled expecting to see him at Newbury, but a cut leg ruled him out of the Game Spirit Chase.

The Nicky Henderson horse was forced to miss the Triumph Hurdle at last year’s Festival and now will be going into the Arkle Challenge Trophy – if he gets there, that is – with only one run over fences behind him, unless Nicky sends him either to Kempton or Bangor as has been mooted.

Of course, waiting to pounce is Willie Mullins with his smart 5yo Majborough, winner of that Triumph Hurdle and unbeaten since in his two runs over fences. He looked last week in winning the Irish Arkle Novice Chase at Leopardstown that he still had a bit to learn about jumping fences. When Sir Gino won at Kempton, you could have thought you were watching a horse that had won ten races over fences, let alone had never run over them before. After all, it was Ballyburn that he was putting back in his box, a horse who all through last season and again at the Dublin Festival, looked like a future Gold Cup winner.

Henderson did have something to smile about on the Newbury card, the mare Joyeuse cantering away with the William Hill Handicap Hurdle and its £87k first prize in the colours of J P McManus. Only a 9/2 shot, the success was therefore expected in some parts but a glance at her earlier career did not present her with the most obvious of chances.

She won her only race in France, a 1m4f AQPS maiden as a 3yo by three parts of a length. The venue? Another of those French tracks where they probably mark out the rails the night before. For the record it was at Paray-le-Mondial, a track and indeed town I’d never heard of; but, in fairness, even those venues that race only once a year are always immaculately presented. Paray-le-Mondial is in the east of France, for the record, about 80 miles northnorthwest of Lyon.

The run was enough to secure a price of €235,000 soon after from the all-seeing McManus talent-scouting operation. Henderson took his time before sending her out for the first run from Lambourn, at Taunton in January last year and she won by half a length.

Two placed efforts in just over three weeks in November and December earned her an initial handicap rating of 123. The way she accelerated away – once favourite Secret Squirrel fell when still right in the argument at the last flight, suggested she wouldn’t have been far away off 143!

The McManus team from Ireland and the UK will be feared as usual next month but a quirk of the altered regulations for Cheltenham’s handicaps means Joyeuse is ineligible for any of them, and she isn’t a novice either. Aintree here she comes, no doubt.

 - TS

‘SR’ Ratings on the All-Weather

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There are numerous reasons why the only racecards I use are the Geegeez Gold ones, writes Dave Renham. There are several useful tabs on the racecard, three of which I always look at first: Pace, Instant Expert and Profiler. For flat and all-weather racing I will also look at the Draw tab.

Each of these tabs offers me useful and diverse information, all at simply the click of a button. In under two minutes I can decide about whether the race in question is one that merits more of my time. If it does, then I will delve into the Full Form tab to build up a bigger overall picture for myself. If I get to the stage where there looks to be a horse or horses that I may be interested in betting on, the next thing I will look at is the SR column in the main Racecard.

The number in that column is a ratings figure derived from Dr Peter May’s research. I have always had huge respect for Peter, and I will always consider his ratings when analysing a race. Having Peter’s ratings is another bonus when it comes to using the Geegeez Gold cards. And for today’s article it is Peter’s SR ratings that I am going to take a deep dive into.

Matt wrote an article in September 2023 looking at the performance of the ratings in National Hunt racing. In that piece he explained that Peter’s ratings are not strictly ‘Speed’ ratings. He wrote,

Peter's numbers are derived from a neural network: he's been doing artificial intelligence (AI) since long before it became fashionable. And they're much more than a measure of speed; they include a number of form considerations making them a sort of composite of, in Racing Post terms, RPR (Racing Post Rating) and TS (Topspeed) - both of which we also publish on geegeez.” Hence Peter’s ratings are unique.

My focus for this article is all-weather racing. I have looked at a five-year time frame from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2024. When I refer to the ratings from now on, I will call them SR Ratings as that is how they appear on the geegeez racecards.

I have spoken to many people who have compiled ratings in the past, be they speed or ability ratings, and in every case the win rate was the key to judging the effectiveness of their ratings. The top-rated runner should have the highest win percentage, the second highest should win next most often, and so on, gradually reducing for the other runners. Obviously, it is hoped the top-rated runner is the best performer in terms of betting returns, too; however, it is important to point out that regardless of how good a set of ratings is, we cannot generally expect the top-rated runner to secure a blind profit over thousands of races. That's not the case with Racing Post Ratings, Timeform Ratings or any other public rating. Despite that, such figures are an excellent guide to which subset of horses can normally be considered contenders.

Let’s start with looking at the win percentages (strike rates) for different SR-rated runners. This covers all races on the all-weather over the five year period of study. The horizontal axis is labelled from 1 and represents the top-rated runner, 2 the second-top rated, and so on:

 

 

The win strike rate for top-rated runners is close to one win in five which is thoroughly decent, and the top three rated horses win almost half (48%) of races. The percentages correlate positively with the rated positions showing a sliding scale that we would hope for. If we look at the Each Way (win & placed) strike rates, we see a similar pattern:

 

 

The top-rated runner is comfortably clear once more, and the sliding scale is replicated showing positive correlation with the win only figures.

In terms of returns to Industry SP, the top-rated runner has performed the best although overall losses stand at 15 pence in the £. However, to Betfair SP losses stand at under 2p in the £. This is impressive considering there are around 13,000 top-rated runners in this sample.

Let me now split the races into handicaps versus non-handicaps and compare with win strike rates for the top-rated and the second rated runners:

 

 

As we can see, in non-handicaps the top-rated runner is well clear of the second rated, while in handicaps the gap is much smaller. This was to be expected, given the relatively competitive nature of handicaps compared with non-handicaps, but again it is good to see it in black and white - or should I say orange and blue!

I would like to now analyse the BSP returns of the top-rated horse in different race types. These have been split into 2yo non-handicaps, 2yo handicaps, 3yo non-handicaps, 3yo handicaps, all age non-handicaps, and all age handicaps. The graph below shows the Betfair SP return on investment percentages (BSP ROI%) for each race grouping:

 

 

Three of the six groupings (2yo non-handicaps, 2yo handicaps, 3yo handicaps) saw the top-rated secure a blind profit which is impressive stuff. All age non-handicaps showed the worst returns, still only losing 6p in the £.

Using the Query Tool on Geegeez I decided to compare the performance of AW favourites, split into those that were also top-rated on the SR Ratings versus those that were not top-rated. Here are the findings:

 

 

The Win PL (profit/loss) and ROI (return on investment) columns have been calculated to Industry SP, and we have a clear winner. In addition, the strike rate is more than six percentage points higher.

When calculating to BSP there is a similar difference between the two:

 

 

Thus, if we back favourites on the all-weather, having them top-rated on SR Ratings would have improved our bottom line. Yes, SR top-rated runners when favourite still made a loss to BSP, but it was limited to only 2p in the £ over five years. A pretty good starting point for further research.

We see a similar pattern when we look at horses second in the betting comparing their record when SR top-rated or not. Here are those splits:

 

 

Again, these are calculated to Industry SP but a clear difference, equating to around 8p in the £, can be seen. To BSP, SR top-rated horses that started second favourite secured a profit of around 4p in the £.

I would now like to look at top-rated runners in all age handicaps in more detail. The reason is that all age handicaps make up around 70% of UK all-weather races, a striking statistic. Also, from a personal perspective, these are my favourite races to bet in. I am hoping that getting a better feel for the top-rated runner has the potential to inform some of our future betting decisions.

Below is a table showing the most positive results from a BSP returns perspective in all age handicaps:

 

 

As a fan of sprint handicaps this makes very pleasing reading. The minimum distance has been a strong positive for top-rated runners in these all age handicaps. The lower weighted top-rated runners have also performed well. It should be noted that this is based on the card weight of the horse and does not consider jockey claims. A quick return is often seen as a positive and, although they tend to be overbet these days, that has not seemingly been an issue when they have been SR top-rated runners. Horses that have yet to win at the course have also snuck into profit possibly due to course winners being overbet meaning the non-winners have been slightly underbet.

I would like to finish by combining top-rated runners with Run Style/Pace. Of course, the run style figures are only known after the race is in progress but the figures follow a familiar pattern we have seen before:

 

The Win PL and the ROI can be considered to be ‘projected’ returns to Industry SP, because as we know we cannot predict 100% how the run style for each horse within each race will unfold. But if we can find a top-rated runner that is a strong candidate for leading early, then this would potentially be a decent betting opportunity. For the record, front running top-rated runners offer slightly better returns in handicaps compared to non-handicaps.

**

At the beginning of this article, I was praising the virtues of the Geegeez Gold racecards. At the end of that opening paragraph I mentioned that having Peter May’s ratings (SR) was a bonus; I hope after reading this article you will agree with me and feel better equipped to tackle the all-weather, particularly under certain highlighted circumstances, going forward.

- DR

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