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Royal Ascot 2025: Day 2 Preview, Tips

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It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.

The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.

Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?

In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.

An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.

The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.

Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.

Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.

Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.

The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.

While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.

Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.

In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.

Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.

True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.

Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!

Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.

 

3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.

Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.

The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.

Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.

Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).

So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.

Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.

Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.

Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.

The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.

I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...

Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here. 

She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly,  so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present. 

Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off. 

One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer. 

Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead. 

Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1

 

4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.

Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.

He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.

Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.

Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.

Win: Los Angeles
Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)

 

5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

Market factors

Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.

 

Weight

In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.

 

Age

4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.

5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.

6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.

4yos clearly have the best record.

 

Draw

The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Stalls PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 0.44 0.44
6 to 10 0.47 0.53
11 to 15 0.52 0.59
16 to 20 0.59 0.63
21 to 25 0.48 0.53
26 to 30 0.49 0.51

 

It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.

 

Run Style

I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.40 0.44
Prominent 0.42 0.45
Mid Division 0.53 0.57
Held up 0.57 0.60

 

7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.

 

Recent form trends

11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.

Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.

 

Analysis

I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.

My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.

Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive.  He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.

Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.

For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.

La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.

Epictetus -  He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.

 

Suggestion

Half stake on

Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1

Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on

La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w

Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.

 

5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.

Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed

Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.

The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.

Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.

The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.

From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.

SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)

 

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Victor Value

The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.

Trends to Note

The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:

The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.

Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.

Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.

Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.

Contenders:

Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.

Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.

Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.

Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.

First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.

Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.

Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.

Windsor Castle Verdict:

Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.

Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.

Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)

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Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

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Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

And so to the most international race meeting in the British calendar, Royal Ascot. The 2025 edition looks as star-studded as ever and continues to bask in its royal patronage, one of the features of the opening day named in honour of our current reigning monarch.

For the most part there's quantity as well as quality, which doubtless means winner-finding will be tough; but in what follows, I've assembled some of the sharpest quills in the inkpot for, primarily, your entertainment and enlightenment. Naturally, a winner or three will not be unwelcome.

Side note: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Tuesday trends page here, and my Day 1 Tix Picks here.

A quick note that our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race (*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Dave Renham

I have the honour of kicking off Royal Ascot 2025 for the Geegeez tipping team solet’s see if we can start off on the right foot.

Queen Anne Trends

I'll start by looking at some race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-old and up mile Group 1 contest:

Age

4yos recorded 11 wins from 81 runners (13.6%); 31% placed.

5yo took 3 wins from 59 runners (5.1%); 24% placed.

6yo and up hadjust 1 win from 37 runners ( 2.7%); 11% placed.

Based on these figures, 4yos have been by far the dominant group from a win perspective and, to a lesser extent, a placed perspective.

Market factors

9 wins for favourites

Horses priced 6/4 or shorter were 8 wins from 10

However, since 2018 there have been three big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and one at 14/1.

Course form

Course winners secured 9 wins from 58 runners (15.5%) with 34.5% placed.

Those without a course win had 6 wins from 119 runners (5%) with 19% placed.

A win at the course has definitely been a positive over the past 15 years.

Position LTO

9 winner also won LTO from 48 runners (18.8%).

Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO were 6 from 129 (4.7%).

LTO winners performed well from a smallish sample.

Course LTO

9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from  67 runners (13.4%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years.

Race Class LTO

13 of the 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided 55% of the total runners in the race and just under 87% of the winners.

Career win percentage

Horses with a career win percentage of 60% or more provided 8 winners from just 21 runners (38.1%) for a BSP profit of £34.62 (ROI +164.9%).

Queen Anne Preview

The first four home in the Lockinge - Lead Artist (1st), Dancing Gemini (2nd), Rosallion (3rd) and Notable Speech (4th) - reoppose here. In that race the first two home had the benefit of a previous run, while the third and fourth were making their seasonal debut.

Logic dictates that both Rosallion and Notable Speech will come on for that run and the trainers of both have made comments in the press to that effect. Also, I felt that Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini had the run of that race, always being up with the pace.

There are potentially two ways to approach the Queen Anne – one is playing the win market, the other looking for an each way runner at a price. In terms of the win strategy, the first one I’m drawn to consider is ROSALLION. He heads the market and looks a worthy favourite to me. Two from two at Ascot, including a win last year at the Royal meeting in the St James’s Palace, he is also the only one of four horses mentioned so far to have a career win record of over 60%. He ticks most of the trends except for winning LTO, and is also the joint highest rated in the race on official ratings.

Notable Speech is the other joint top rated in terms of ORs and he is a bigger price than Rosallion. Third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile suggests he has the class to go close, but the issue for me is his Ascot run last year in the St James’s Palace where he was a well beaten 7th. As illustrated earlier, course winners tend to out-perform non-course winners.

I am expecting Dancing Gemini to reverse form with Lead Artist and if this was being run anywhere else, I would be very interested in his chance. However, in two runs at Ascot Roger Teal's four-year-old has been some way beliw his best, albeit one of those runs was only his second career start. He does seem to have improved his form this season, but that Ascot runs are a concern.

Sardinian Warrior is 4 from 6 in his career so that is positive on the trends. He won here earlier this year in the Listed Queen Anne trial (Paradise Stakes) and followed that up with a decent second in France in soft ground over 9f. Back to a mile here, he has sound claims.

For each way players it is possible to make a case for Lake Forest, and to a lesser extent Carl Spackler and Diego Velazquez.

However,  Docklands, who I believe is best on fast ground, has some appeal based on his price. On official ratings he has a bit to find, but he was the lowest rated runner in this race last year when finishing second of 13. His record at Ascot is excellent with two firsts, three seconds and one third from six starts, and his PRB at the course stands at 0.94. I think he is a 6 to 8lb better horse here at Ascot. He was second to Sardinian Warrior in that trial here in April, beaten half a length, and is around 25/1 compared with Sardinian Warrior at around 7/1. At the time of writing, he is 25/1 with a few firms who are offering 4 places, which looks real value to me. Crack Australian jockey Mark Zahra gets the ride: he's inexperienced at the track but a top rider in his country with two of the three Melbourne Cups since 2022 to his name.

This is a cracking race to start the meeting off with very few runners that could comfortably be written off.

Suggestion:

1pt win  Rosallion at 11/4

0.25pts each way Docklands 25/1, 4 places

 

3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

It's great to be back on the team again and, just like 12 months ago, I'll be covering four of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot.

I know it’s heresy for jumps fans, but Royal Ascot beats Cheltenham for me: it’s more competitive, it’s global, and it doesn’t need “Festival” added on — it’s the original.

The Group 2 Coventry Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s most prestigious juvenile races and often a launchpad to Group 1 glory. First run in 1890, it’s been a nursery for top-level sprinters and milers.

Recent winners include:

Bradsell (2022) – Went on to win the King’s Stand/Charles III (2023) and Nunthorpe Stakes (2024)

Caravaggio (2016) – Won the Commonwealth Cup the following year

Dawn Approach (2012) – Unbeaten as a juvenile and won the 2,000 Guineas in 2013.

Henrythenavigator (2007) – Won the following year’s 2,000 Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes.

Coventry Stakes Trends

While field size and inexperience make it look wide open, punters have generally had the edge in the race. That has changed a bit with the 150/1 shock of Nando Parrado in 2020 and Rashabar’s 80/1 win last year. But before that, in the 12 renewals from 2008 to 2019, horses sent off at 12/1 or bigger were acombined 1 winner from 155, 7 places.

15 of the last 17 winners won on their previous start. The two exceptions? Nando Parrado and Rashabar.

Another good angle: winners since 2008 were all 9/1 or shorter on their most recent start. Those returned 10/1+ were 0 from 50, with just 1 place.

Is there a draw bias? Not really. Winners have come from across the track. Stall 1 is 0 from 10, 3 places over the past 10 years, but stalls 2 and 3 have both produced winners so that's nothing to be concerned about. More generally over six furlongs on quick ground/big fields, there's a pretty even distribution of winners and placed horses.

Coventry Stakes Contenders

Here's a summary of the Coventry Stakes key contenders.

Postmodern – Overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Yarmouth last month. Visually impressive and a comfortable winner. He looks a good juvenile prospect and is effective on quick ground.

Military Code – The unbeaten son of Wootton Bassett made it 2-2 over 5f when winning a novice here 38 days ago. The step up to 6f should unlock further improvement.

No Albert Einstein, the early hot ante post favourite, means Aidan O’Brien relies on Gstaad and Warsaw. Gstaad came home well when making a winning debut at Navan (6f) last time. He beat a better fancied stablemate that day and is open to further improvement with racing. Warsaw has just had the one run, which was a winning one, also at Navan (5f), 10 days ago. Like Warsaw, he’s sure to improve but Ryan Moore has opted for Gstaad. Has Ryan chosen the right one? He usually does in this race but I wouldn’t be so sure; regardless, I am not convinced either will be in the winner’s enclosure.

Power Blue – Was only beaten ¾ of a length by Albert Einstein in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. Given the latter was 6/4 for the Coventry when he became a non-runner, and the form looks strong, the 16/1 available at the time of writing makes him look overpriced.

American Gulf – A Class 4 novice winner at Windsor on debut and could hardly have been more impressive, a performance backed up by the clock. Oisin Murphy, who won on him at Windsor, stays in the saddle. There should be plenty more to come from him with racing. Trainer and owner had the third in 2022, and have had seven of 18 finish top five in Royal Ascot juvenile races since they scored in the 2013 Chesham with Berkshire.

Underwriter – Won well on debut on quick ground at Ayr. Retained jockey James Doyle rides favourite Postmodern, but Colin Keane is an excellent deputy. Archie Watson knows how to prepare one for the race having trained Bradsell (2022 winner) and lost out by a nose with Electrolyte 12 months ago. That was agony for me as I had tipped him here. Underwriter is open to as much improvement as any in the line-up and I’m expecting a big run from the colt.

Kolkata Knight – Looked professional and was backed when winning on debut at Hamilton. Open to further improvement and could outrun big odds for a trainer - Tom Dascombe - who has enjoyed previous Royal Ascot success, including a juvenile winner in the Queen Mary Stakes.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

Postmodern was an impressive debut winner and is firmly in the 'could be anything' category. That sentiment applies to Underwriter, in the same ownership, and he looks the better value of the pair given his trainer’s fine record in the race.

Neither of the Aidan O’Brien pair of Gstaad and Warsaw have got my pulse racing, but the trainer has won ten Coventry Stakes so we still need to respect his runners.

Military Code is unbeaten and improving and can get into the money, but I fancy there are better prospects in the line-up. Power Blue’s form with Albert Einstein stacks up well and he looks overpriced on that run. The market has seemingly ignored his form and he’s a tempting pick.

American Gulf impressed me when winning on debut and he’s another where we're guessing at how much more is under the bonnet. I like the fact that Osin Murphy stays in the saddle and he’s a playable price at 12/1.

Coventry Stakes Selection

American Gulf: 1pt win – 10/1

Underwriter: 1pt win – 12/1

3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

With a big field declared for the King Charles III (formerly the King’s Stand), pace and draw are likely to be a decisive factor in the way the race develops. Traditionally that means that the higher numbers (stands side) are favoured, but the best of the pace appears to be in the middle, suggesting that the high-draw bias could be diluted to some extent. That said, I’d still rather be very high than very low.

Believing ran a stormer last year from stall 1, so while that is arguably the worst of the draw, she has proven she can overcome that obstacle to be competitive, and she looked at least as good as ever when winning the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time by ½ length from Win Carnelian and Regional. She was a little frustrating last season but seemed to get some bad luck with draws and is sure to be competitive for her new connections.

Asfoora is the defending champion, and the seven-year-old mare won at Morphettville in April before finishing seventh over 6f there last time. She showed last year that 5f on an English track suits her better than 6f in Australia, so merits respect in her bid to win this again for the Aussies. Her age would normally be a concern as few top-class mares retain their ability for as long as she has, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration. She got her eye in last year with a spin in the Temple Stakes before coming here, but she’s been in action recently enough to think that fitness won’t be a concern and she’s drawn between the more obvious pace angles in the race.

REGIONAL comes here after an excellent third, beaten little more than half a length in the Al Quoz Sprint won by Believing, and he has fared better with the draw than her this time. Berthed in 17 and with pace on his inside, he’s in a similar position to last year when he was beaten a length by Asfoora - the Australian mare exited 17 that day and Regional was close by in stall 15. Looking at the shape of the contest, I would argue that his draw is almost perfect, both in terms of historical perspective and where the pace is likely to be concentrated here: it looks to be immediately to the left, with Frost At Dawn in 15 as likely a leader as any, and those drawn 9 through 12 all having shown a tendency to push the pace.

He will hopefully have enough cover without having to fight for room, and he is ideally suited by 5f on quick ground as he showed when second last year. His form figures at this trip on good or faster turf are 21152 and the only unplaced effort came when beaten 2½ lengths in the 2023 Nunthorpe, his first run at Group 1 level.

The other one worthy of a mention is Night Raider, who blazed away in the Duke Of York last time but couldn’t last out the 6f trip there. He’s likely to be at his best on turf at this trip given a sound surface, and he’s the pick of those who will go forward from a single-figure draw. Stall 7 looks far from insurmountable and he can lead his group for some way, although he may just find a couple too strong at the finish.

Recommended: Back Regional e/w at 7/1

Exotics: Include Regional/Asfoora/Believing/Night Raider in exacta/trifecta permutations.

 

4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A small but well formed septet head to post for the one mile St James's Palace Stakes, typically a clash of the 2000 Guineas winners from across Europe. And so it is that we welcome said Classic scorers from the English, Irish and French versions, including a grudge rematch (of sorts) from Newmarket. Let's put some names to faces.

Cast your mind back - not far - to the opening Saturday of May and the 2000 Guineas. On that day, Field Of Gold was only 15/8 to fill one of the remaining empty spaces on the senior member of Team Gosden's lustrous palmarès. Godolphin's Ruling Court got first run and scampered clear under Buick; Field Of Gold, and Kieran Shoemark, were blindsided, flatfooted and, arguably - at least according to the trainer - outwitted.

The runner-up rattled home late, but too late, and was beaten a half length at the line. Too bad, said Johnny G, and it was the end for Shoemark. Harsh it might have been but in stepped Colin Keane, subsequently announced as first choice rider for Juddmonte, Field Of Gold's ownership entity, for the Curragh gig in the Irish 2000. Keane made no mistake - and nor should he in what was a slightly thinner looking affair, albeit that some of those inflated juvenile ratings were still suggesting otherwise.

This, then, can be seen as a decider, Ruling Court having snubbed his Derby invite at the eleventh hour as conditions went against him (and, perhaps, as connections realised that they were needlessly blotting a top Darley stallion prospect's copybook in a race that annually crowns Coolmore National Hunt daddy's). If Ruling Court had run at Epsom, there would surely not have been time to prepare him for this job a mere 11 days later. The Downs' loss is the Heath's gain.

As mentioned, this is no two horse race. There are 28 equine legs entered, and at least twelve of them are strong contenders; let's address the mystery four, which belong to Poules d'Essai des Poulains (or French 2000 Guineas, if you prefer) winner, Henri Matisse. To Juddmonte and Godolphin we add Coolmore's lads. Henri was a very good juvenile, running second in the G1 National Stakes before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and he's trained on well, collecting a trial at Leopardstown en route to Paris and the Poulains.

A feature of this fella's performances is his ability to quicken. He was more than six lengths back at Del Mar before rattling home; and he ran two sub-11 second furlongs in the last three-eighths of the French Guineas.

The other four in the field should be discussed for all that my feeling is that a seven-runner race where they bet 25/1 bar three offers little of note outside win only wagering.

Rashabar showed a liking for this track when winning last year's Coventry. He proved that was no fluke by finishing very close seconds in two Group 1's later that season, and has again run well - although less eye-catchingly - in a brace of defeats this term. The latter, when five lengths behind Field Of Gold at the Curragh, gives him plenty to find; but this turning track might help him narrow the gap: he's looked like a doubtful stayer at a mile to my eye.

Officer's form heretofore is a stone below the top ones but the case for him is that he is less exposed and was certainly unlucky to some degree in the Irish 2000. Sent off only a 9/2 shot there, more was expected; but Moore has deserted and this looks a tough ask for the Ballydoyle second string. Their third dart is the maiden winner - at the fifth time of asking if you don't mind - First Wave. My assumption is that his is a pacemaking role.

That leaves a second Juddmonte runner, Windlord, beaten eight lengths in that Curragh Classic and surely also setting things up tempo-wise for his teammate.

Cast assembled, how does this act play out? It seems, on paper at least, to be run at a reasonable clip, with both Windlord and First Wave presumed hares. As always in such scenarios, though, there is the danger that the main trio mark each other and ignore the front end sizzle. That could lead to potential traffic problems, even in a small field (nothing more annoying as a punter!), and a dash for the line.

My suspicion is that the one most compromised in that situation would be odds-on jolly Field Of Gold, who has seemed to need a moment to get rolling, and he's opposable on that basis. If there is a genuine even tempo and he gets clear passage, he'll probably win; but I don't want to wager that where I'm getting less back in premium than I've shelled out in policy.

I've got a bit of a problem with Ruling Court as well. His mile form is top notch, as you'd expect for a Newmarket Guineas winner. But he was being trained to run a mile and a half at Epsom; that's a different regime, emphasising relaxing and stretching out over the greater speed requirements of top division miling. As with the favourite, I don't feel that's fully factored into his early quotes south of 3/1 for all that he's about as far from a shock winner as you'll get.

Which brings me to HENRI MATISSE. I'm not sure he's the best horse in the race - indeed, I think he's likely not (at this stage anyway) - but I do feel he's the most adaptable, and likely to handle the setup however it plays. And he has Ryan Moore steering. Nearly 5/1 looked very fair and 4/1 is still playable.

The rest don't really count but, for prayer mat punters, I could see Rashabar being closest to the front end nutjobs and making a bold dash for glory. It's far from 25/1 that he's on the lead at some point in the final quarter, before probably getting mown down by one or more of the trio atop the markets. Perhaps it's not Rash to include him 'underneath' in exactas and/or trifectas.

Suggestion: Try Henri Matisse at around 4/1 win only.

 

5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Ascot Stakes Trends

All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 11 times in their career (NH & Flat)
All of the last 17 winners carried 8-13 or more(before jockey claims)
All of the last 18 winners had raced 3 or fewer times that turf flat Season
All of the last 13 winners were rated 88-100
13 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 60 days (NH & Flat) – exception 2020 (covid)
13 of the last 15 renewals have been won by NH/Dual Trainers
17 of the last 18 winners had been rested at least 16 days (NH & Flat)
17 of the last 18 winners had their last run in a class 2-4 race (NH & Flat)
13 of the last 18 winners finished top 4 on their last run (NH & Flat)
11 of the last 15 winners were aged 5-7yo (exceptions 1x4yo, 2x8yo & 9yo)
Last 4yo winner before 2024 was in 2009
All 14 horses to have run on the All Weather last time were beaten. 2 placed.

Ascot Stakes Preview

A 0-100 handicap, a maximum field of 20 runners, and two and a half miles of stamina-sapping Berkshire turf that brings the National Hunt boys out to play at the Royal meeting. In fact 13 of the last 15 winners were trained by NH or dual purpose trainers. The flat boys and girls have had the odd winner here and there over the century, and have struck back recently having won two of the last three renewals, but on the whole it usually pays to stick with those trainers holding a jumps licence.

Despite the dominance of the NH horses it is interesting that only 8 of the last 28 winners had their last run over jumps with the other 20 having had their prep on the flat (what is more important to note is that all 25 runners since 1998 to have had their last run on the all-weather have been beaten). All 31 runners that last ran in a class 5 or 6 race and all 28 runners that last raced over 3 miles or further have been beaten also but age seems to be irrelevant with all age groups winning this century from 4-9yo (last year's 4yo winner was the first of that age group since 2009 but 7 of the 9 winners from 1998-2006 were 4yo).

The Irish challenge is strong this year with most of the top stables represented by at least one runner and, looking through the field, the eye is immediately drawn to the Willie Mullins-trained Triumph Hurdle winner PONIROS (East India Dock third) who sits right at the bottom of the weights and has William Buick on board (jockey has won 2 of the last 4 renewals). I sense this has been the plan with him ever since he rounded off his short jumps campaign with a second in the 4yo hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, and the master trainer has kept his horse fresh and penalty-free by not taking in the Chester Cup.

Mullins himself has won this race four times since 2012 and had three runners-up since 2019. He's particularly adept with horses in the bottom half of the handicap with a recent record of those carrying 9-06 or less at 10/1 or under of 2710314222. Poniros showed himself a top class juvenile hurdler but he also had some pretty decent flat handicap form last season including running second to Queens Gambit in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last May and being sent off favourite for the Cambridgeshire late in the season after finishing third in a big handicap at Ascot. He was a no show in the Cambridgeshire, looking like a horse needing a longer trip, and subsequently left Ralph Beckett to join Mullins.

I'm really confident of a big effort from this 4yo with the only caveat being that he probably won't want the ground too firm. I'm just hoping the Ascot watering policy will ensure they have taken the sting out of the turf and that enables him to run to his best.

As the ground could majorly affect the chances of my main bet I'm also going to have a small each way bet on the Harry Eustace 7yo DIVINE COMEDY who was runner up in this race last year under a 5lb claimer from just a 2lb lower mark. He began this season with a short head second to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham and the winner did that form no harm when running second to Illinois in the Ormonde Stakes and then winning a York Listed race from Absurde under a 5lb penalty. Divine Comedy followed up that run with a close third in the Sagaro Stakes before running down the field in the Chester Cup. Dropped 2lb since then he looks a massive price for a horse who has already shown he handles conditions and has begun this season in great form in a better class of race. His trainer has two winners, two seconds and a third from just eight Royal Ascot runners to date.

Ascot Stakes Selection

Try PONIROS at 11/2 and/or DIVINE COMEDY e/w at 25/1 or bigger

P.S. One final thing. Win, lose or draw it's always worth noting that if any of the runners from this race turn up again later in the week for the Queen Alexandra Stakes (final race on Saturday) then they deserve the utmost respect. In truth, not many try it these days but, since 1998, of the 17 to have attempted the double four have won, including two of the three Ascot Stakes winners that turned out quickly, and another four made the frame (at odds of up to 20/1). That's a place percentage of 47% and backing them all showed a Level Stakes Win Profit of +13.25pts thanks to winners at 11/4, 11/2, 6/1 and 12/1.

 

 

5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Formerly a handicap the Wolferton became a conditions race in 2018, although that has done little to improve its scrutability with three of the last four winners returning 14/1 or bigger. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 20 entries. Both are represented this year.

Let's first look at the race setup. There is a draw bias in big fields on fast ground on the turning ten-furlong course. In the chart below, focused on PRB3, a smoothed metric showing the percentage of horses beaten by a stall and its immediate neighbours, we can see that the dark blue line - representing the race conditions (field size, going, all races) - is above the 50% lighter blue line up to around stall eight. In a field of 16, the implication is that it's harder to run well from wide.

 

Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias

Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias

 

The lower half of that image is a heat map overlaying run style onto draw thirds. It tells us that early speed is often cheap speed, and that the optimal position is low to middle with a midfield sit in the early part of the race. Einstein is not required for us to also figure out that luck will also be needed by those adopting such a passage. Perhaps we're starting to see why big-priced winners are a feature of the Wolferton...

On Official Ratings just 4lb separates all bar one of the 16 runners, further attesting to the trickiness of the race. Still, with older horses and a big field, we can probably put a few profile elements into play. Below are the geegeez.co.uk Instant Expert grids for, first, placed performance, and then win only. There's a sea of green on the place, implying lots of these are well enough suited by conditions.

 

 

The grid is ordered by current odds at time of writing; and the well touted Sons And Lovers is one I'm personally fielding against. The form of his run behind Los Angeles has been trumpeted but it's worth noting he only had two behind him there - and one of those was a 100/1 shot. He's failed to make the frame in six races at the trip and in eight races in Pattern company so, while he might perform better from stall 1 and with Grandmaster Moore in the driver's seat, he just doesn't look particularly solid.

Enfjaar heads the betting parade. He has an ostensibly good draw in 2, is trained by that man Varian and this is his trip. Highly progressive in handicaps last term, including in the hurly burly of big fields, he's sure to step forward a bundle from his prep in the Brigadier Gerard. A player, no doubt, but skinny enough in the book.

Haatem has a tidy line of green on the place, and plenty of green and amber on the win view (see below). He has a blank for the trip because he's stepping up from mile races; his pedigree (Phoenix Of Spain out of a Cape Cross mare) offers hope that he'll stay without being conclusive. He was classy enough to run second to Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas last season before taking the 7f Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting, and is another that can be expected to bound forward from his seasonal bow. Still, Jersey Stakes hardly screams a horse wanting a mile and a quarter.

 

 

Richard Fahey sends Ecureuil Secret and bids to become the fourth Yorkshire-based trainer to win the Wolferton after Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby and Mark Johnston. A four-year-old son of Wootton Bassett, he's been hyper consistent on both sides of the English Channel, and won an Epsom handicap by fully four lengths last time. He's a handy racer, making all that last day, and might just be a sitting duck in this deeper and classier contest.

Godolphin's Military Order looks better on the all-weather, or at least softer turf, and he's readily (and perhaps recklessly) overlooked; while the likes of King's Gambit and Liberty Lane both have it all to do from their wide posts. Each has form claims but getting a run might not be easy.

Let's revisit the heat map, this time with the runners, and their draws and recent run style preferences, overlaid. I've used some very high tech (!) coloured squares to highlight various things. First, those high numbers might have it to do. Second, low to middle looks good - but probably only if not too close to the pace (even allowing for the fact the race doesn't look swamped with early speed).

The Fahey horse will probably go on, and I'd imagine that Haatem - with his unproven stamina - might be ridden more patiently. Doha and Galen are others expected to be to the fore.

 

 

James Owen is winning everywhere just now but it will be a rabbit from a hat job if he can get the stayer Ambiente Friendly to win at this range. He could potentially also go forward in a bid to make it a truer test of stamina: if it's tactical he's surely got little chance.

Wathnan are an emerging force in ownership and they've targeted this meeting the past couple of seasons. Four horses carry their silks in this, including the aforementioned Haatem - the mount of retained rider James Doyle - and the wide-drawn King's Gambit. Their other pair are perhaps the more interesting ones. Haunted Dream is a big price and has done most of his recent racing in the Emirates, his last run there being a fourth of ten in the uber-valuable Neom Cup (£960,000 to the winner) in Saudi Arabia. Mikael Barzalona will probably ride him cold at the back of the field and have licence to thrill (or frustrate) with the route he plots, and he's kind of interesting from a throwaway dart perspective.

More obvious is Torito, representing that five-time winning and five-time placing axis of the Clarehaven Gosdens. He gets a plum draw, has an optimal running style and was third in the race last year when perhaps given too much to do. Colin Keane takes the reins so, while fitness must be taken on trust on this first start since last year's race, the fact he's here and is the sole Gosden entry in a race they've farmed offers plenty of hope.

It's a fascinating race but not an easy one to unravel - and I'm not inclined to play at short as a consequence. Enfjaar has an obvious chance but is commensurately well found in the markets; Haatem has stamina to prove and is too short in that context (though a steadily run race might aid his chance); and I have reservations about the next four in the market. Those reservations extend to Torito and to Haunted Dream, but a combination of the available odds and the perceived run of the race mean I'll split my stakes between them, and between the win and place pools.

Suggestion: Back either Torito e/w at 11/1 and/or Haunted Dream e/w at 14/1 or bigger.

*

6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by David Massey

Last year - 16 runners, first four drawn 14-16-12-13

2023 - 16 runners first four 7-10-3-13 (Vauban, would have won from Car Park 6, frankly)

2022 - 16 runners, first four 7-9-14-5

2021 - 15 runners, first four 9-4-3-1

French Master is the correct favourite for this. He looked in need of the run first time up (and still showed signs of greenness) at Newmarket and was still only beaten by El Cordobes (who was the paddock pick) and then last time out, despite constantly coming on and off the bridle and racing less than economically, was a neck too good for Story Horse. He's up 4lb for that but frankly was value for an awful lot more, and he looks a class stayer in the making. He’s still learning his trade and that, to a certain extent is the concern here - that he finds the occasion a bit too much at present - but I’ve little doubt he’ll be a lot higher than a 100-rated horse by the end of the season. On go the blinkers, which is hardly a surprise after Goodwood, either. 

Caballo De Mar has been a favourite of mine for some time, a Trackside success story as he was flagged up early last year as one that would keep improving as he went up in trip. All he’s done is progress, and I loved the way he fought them off at Haydock last time, going to the front a full three furlongs out and just galloping his rivals into submission. He’s up another 4lb for that (which he needed in order to get a run here) but this extreme stamina test will suit him well and he might not have finished improving yet. He's a horse that simply tries hard and knows how to win, which is half the battle with stayers. Drawn in the middle in stall 9, which has thrown the winner up recently (and a place), he’ll do nicely for me here. 

My Mate Mozzie was third in the race last year and is following a similar pattern en route as then: last season it was Cheltenham, this time around Aintree, as a prep, and on neither occasion did he cover himself in glory, so I’d not be worrying about that too much. Gavin Cromwell has enlisted the services of the excellent Warren Fentiman to take 5lb off his back and there are pros and cons regarding that (last five runnings have all been won by professional jockeys). He’s one to consider as an each-way poke with extra places, for all that he doesn’t actually get his head in front that often - just one win from eleven flat starts, but six places as well. He's certainly one to include in exactas and trifectas, as he’s more likely to be there at the business end of proceedings than a few of his opponents. 

Willie Mullins has won this for the last two years and he runs Charlus, who is impossible to weigh up (for me, anyway). Three times a winner for Jean-Claude Rouget at trips up to 10f, he won a maiden hurdle for Mullins on his first start at Naas back in January before, perhaps unsurprisingly, finding the Triumph Hurdle a step too far on his only other hurdles start. His breeding sends out some mixed messages as to whether he’ll stay or not, although the dam being a half-sister to the very useful Drill Sergeant, who many will remember as a tough, staying sort for Mark Jonhston back in the day, gives plenty of hope; and the booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a huge plus. But look, those bookmaker chaps are already reaching for the tin hats, putting Charlus towards the head of the market, so it’s not as if he’s sneaking one in under the radar here. It may also be that stall 1 is not the best of draws for him either.

Suggestion: Back Caballo De Mar e/w at 6/1 with all the extra places

Monday Musings: Debut Trouble and Double Bubble

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Having cringed five days earlier at the sparse crowds on the Hill at Epsom for Saturday’s Derby, I would have thought taking care of potential money-spending clients would be at the forefront of all racecourses’ actions nowadays, writes Tony Stafford.

Yet on Thursday at Newbury, where there was a 1.30 start, for some reason the course management decreed that until 12.30 they (probably regarded as the enemy until that moment) would not pass.

It could be of course that racecourses’ race day insurance might not kick in until an hour before the first race; but if that’s right, then it’s something they ought to address.

Luckily the owners’ car park is but a stone’s throw from the entrance to the very posh owners’ facility, so once denied admission at 11.50 – I got there quicker than expected as the long-standing and lengthy 50 m.p.h. stretches on the northern part of the M25 and also some more on the M4 had magically disappeared since the start of my house arrest for the previous three weeks.

“Great”, I thought, “that’s plenty of time to get a cup of coffee and study the card.” The horse I’d come to watch wasn’t in until the second race at 2.05 so I might even take advantage of the lunch that’s offered, although with everyone going in at the same time, it would be a bit of a scramble.

One hot choice, pork sausages, so any one unable to partake on religious grounds, would be left with the cold buffet. No such restrictions for me and the sausages were great. I digress.

At 11.50, the promised rain was coming down nicely enough to turn the going from good to firm to good, good to soft in places, allowing the trainer’s assistant associated with “our” horse, a 120k debutant, another possible factor to add to the legion of pre- and post-race book of excuses for a first outing.

After a couple of minutes standing behind the gaggle of already almost-drowning pensioners that comprise many midweek attendees, I had a brainwave, following a couple of others with rudimentary knowledge of the track. “There’s a bar in the hotel, and if that’s no good, there’s always the Lodge”, they offered. The Lodge is where stable lads can stay overnight.

No go at the hotel and around the corner we were very welcome to go into the Lodge, but on race days their bar isn’t open. I slunk back to sit in the car for half an hour.

By the time I did return to the entrance somebody must have taken mercy on the drowned veterans and a few were already in the bar, including my old mate Mike “Chunky” Allen, a fixture at Newbury and Windsor especially, who surprised me with the announcement that it was 20 years since he had left British Airways from his job as Cabin Services Director.

He always used to tell me about all the people in racing he’d managed to get upgrades from coach to first over many years and, from memory, Paul Webber was one of his regular beneficiaries.

I was going on a long-distance trip with my then wife sometime in the 1990s, to the US if I recall. He told me the name of the man who would be CSD on the flight and said: “When you go into the plane, ask for him. I’ve told him about you and he’ll put you in Business Class at a minimum or with luck, First Class.”

Come the day, with my wife saying don’t be silly, we’ll sit in our seats, I wasn’t for turning. The man was standing at the point where passengers would turn left or right. I asked whether he was our man. He said: “Yes”. I said: “Oh good, Mike Allen told me you would look after us.” He gave me a quizzical look and said: “Mike Allen? Never heard of him!” We turned right with one embarrassed husband and an “I told you so” companion.

Last Thursday, I retold the tale with Mike and a witness and Chunky said, “That’s right, I only worked with him for 38 years!”

I thought it would be only fair to buy him what he was drinking as his small house white wine was soon to disappear at the bottom of his tiny glass. I ordered the same again and a non-alcoholic beer for me. I had a longish drive home so you can’t be too careful these days - £12. Good job he didn’t have a large one!

In a field of eight, of course “our horse” was the one doing all the shouting in the pre-parade and, by the time we went into the paddock proper and met the assistant trainer, he added to that obvious negative news with, “Not only that but he’s got his old man out.” A more prosaic description than the coy “rather colty” version beloved of broadcast paddock commentators, you might say.

This juvenile had been, we understood, very forward from day one, had done plenty of galloping and a video of his last piece of work was most encouraging. It’s not my horse, but I attempted to keep the conversation as light as possible as there was, apart from my friend, another partner and his father there. I said, “I saw that gallop, he looked good, unless he was working with a tree.”

Anyway the eight eventually set off on the six and a half furlongs of Newbury and he was slowly away, then dropped further back immediately. On return after the race, his jockey said, “I’d gone 20 yards and he started shouting and it wasn’t until the last furlong that he seemed to get the hang of things.”

He advised patience at least to see his next run as he did keep on well up to the line, improving the distance behind the other two stragglers if not his actual position. Trainer’s assistant said the jockey couldn’t pull him up for ages after the line, so that’s a comfort and I had already taken that reassurance on the eye first time round. I hope my friend and the other owners get some enjoyment. Promise on the gallops can so quickly evaporate with one or two poor displays on the track.

*

I know it’s Royal Ascot this week. I am going to manage only three days, but the early morning work I do for the revamped From The Stables service where around 20 trainers offer their thoughts to me every day means it’s going to be hellish if the roads are difficult.

On Saturday, there were initially 30 horses (in the end quite a few came out) to wade through to find a nap which would appear in the William Hill Radio Naps table.

In the five years I’ve been doing the job – pushed my way when the Editor of this site recommended me when asked his opinion of who might fill a vacancy – we’ve won the competition three times (out of ten goes combined, for the NH and Flat seasons).

Doing my regular call around on Saturday, I spoke to Roger Teal. I very much fancied his horse Hucklesbrook at York as I had done a few weeks earlier at Leicester where he won at 9/1. That day, I forgot to email the tip through and was given a 2/7 shot from the regular substitute provider when mine is a no-show for any reason.

Anyway, Roger told me he was in a rush as his horsebox had broken down on the way and he was waiting for a replacement to bring the horse to run in the valuable featured three-year-old sprint, worth £64k to the winner.

All was well, Hucklesbrook getting there safely and then, ridden by Joanna Mason, winning very authoritatively at 16/1. Roger Teal is a much-underrated trainer (although in fairness, so many of them are). I would love him to win the Queen Anne Stakes, the meeting curtain-raiser of a wonderful Tuesday card, with Dancing Gemini.

To have a 16/1 nap go in was great, but under a new regime instigated only last month and containing an inflex of talented trainers, we now offer a nap, next best and third choice along with an each-way outsider.

The NB, Ben Brookhouse’s My Dream World, had earlier won the Queen Mother Cup for lady amateur riders at 4/1 so an 84/1 double was in place. It is now no longer a secret that winning rider Megan Jordan, partnering a 13th career winner, weighs six cases and two bottles of champagne. At around £50 a pop that’s three and a half grand’s worth. Good for her.

I was getting excited after Hucklesbrook, but then the third choice, Jamie Snowden’s 9/4 shot Hope Rising, turned round just as her field was sent off for a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter, losing a good ten lengths according to the course commentator.

Gavin Sheehan soon got her rolling and she quickly went through the field and into the lead. Jumping well, she seemed to be going better than the hot favourite in the race, but those earlier exertions taxed her stamina and she had to be content with an honourable second place. That treble would have been 272/1!

Later, the day’s each-way outsider, Hughie Morrison’s Mighty Real, a 12/1 shot at Leicester, came with a dangerous-looking run but had to be content with third of eight. If, a word we use too often in racing and I suppose in life generally, things had gone right, it would have been somewhere close to a 3,600/1 payout. Of course, I didn’t have a penny on, but I’m glad to say, plenty of the members did!

You can take a three week trial of From The Stables, using the coupon code ‘geegeez’, here.

 

Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races

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There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.

Introduction

There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:

 

 

As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.

In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank

Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.

 

 

These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.

Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot

Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.

 

 

There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:

 

 

During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.

Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks

If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:

 

 

The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).

Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.

It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position

The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):

 

 

The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.

It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).

 

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class

Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.

LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:

 

 

As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).

The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:

 

 

These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:

 

 

Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.

Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers

The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:

 

 

It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:

 

 

William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places,  as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.

By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.

Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.

Summary

The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.

In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.

A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.

Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.

- DR

Monday Musings: Aidan’s Hat-Trick Heroics

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So Aidan and the boys won the Betfred-sponsored Coronation Cup, Oaks and Derby last weekend, picking up around £1.5 million in the process, writes Tony Stafford. Lambourn, the well-backed third favourite on Derby Day, far out-performed his much more talked-about stable companions The Lion In Winter and short-priced favourite Delacroix in almost a repetition of Serpentine’s all-the-way easy victory under Emmet McNamara at the height of Covid five years ago.

Ryan Moore had selected Delacroix from the gang of trials winners rather than Chester Vase hero Lambourn and, in retrospect, it was maybe a little strange as Aidan always sends his best candidates to Chester, its timing best suiting Epsom.

People may question the suitability of a one-mile always-turning circuit as a recipe for revealing Epsom Classic talent, but I know Henry Cecil always reckoned that a big horse would be fine around the Roodeye if he was well-balanced. Lambourn certainly is.

He was picked up almost by default by Wayne Lordan, the apparent third string – Colin Keane, the regular Irish champion was on Dante flop The Lion In Winter. But the stamina Lambourn showed in winning the Chester Vase (just beyond 1m4f) last month convinced Wayne to go hard in the first furlong out of the stalls – to wake his mount up as much as anything – as he knew, unlike many in the field, his mount would not fail through lack of staying power.

Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy last year were fully expected winners but two other runnings in the last decade have gone to perceived third or higher strings. Wings Of Eagle, the fifth choice in terms of expectations in 2017 was a 40/1 shot when Padraig Beggy guided him home.

Beggy has been rarely seen since on the racecourse, but he did return to Epsom two years later to partner outsider Sovereign as a pacemaker in the Derby and finished tenth. He then rode him as a 25/1 outsider in the Irish Derby and won it!

McNamara might not have seen much riding action after Serpentine’s triumph, but it’s hardly surprising as he had been combining his riding with studying at Griffith College, Dublin. He graduated from there in 2018 with first-class honours in accountancy and finance in 2018 and works in that capacity in the Coolmore operation. Talk about top-class staff!

Moved across to Ballydoyle when David Wachman, John Magnier’s son-in-law, stopped training to take a behind the scenes role in the Coolmore machine, Lordan was third string to Ryan Moore and Seamie Heffernan until that veteran left the team a couple of years or so ago.

Lordan, one of those outdated characters, a true lightweight, had a serious injury during the 2023 Irish Derby which took eight months to overcome. As he said after Saturday’s triumph, he has a wonderful job. It was only a neck that denied him the Oaks-Derby double when Moore’s mount Minnie Hauk just edged out he and Whirl after another flawless front-running ride around Epsom’s tricky 1m4f course the previous afternoon, showing what jewels are available to the Coolmore number two on which to demonstrate his skills.

The modest Mr Lordan affirmed that he will have been in for work at 7 a.m. as usual yesterday and after no drunken celebratory stupor. Like the trainer he’s a teetotaller.

Aidan O’Brien has now won the Derby and Oaks eleven times each and, for good measure, ten Coronation Cups after Friday’s determined triumph for Jan Brueghel over the odds-on French four-year-old Calandagan. The Francis-Henri Graffard-trained horse was adding to his string of half-hearted second places (now four in a row) behind a typically tough O’Brien stayer.

In all, it’s 47 UK Classics from the 139 that have been contested since his first winning attempt in the 1,000 Guineas in 1998. That’s around 33 per cent. At least everyone else has been able to share the remaining two-thirds although, as time goes on, the dominance if anything is strengthening.

Aidan’s 22 Epsom Classics have all come this century, thus 22 of the 52 to have been run, or 42%! When Michael Tabor and Mrs Sue Magnier add their joint win with the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi, they are on 12.

To add to the winner, Coolmore’s partners also own Tennessee Stud, who finished fast from off the pace for the Joseph O’Brien stable. This son of Wootton Bassett was bred by Joseph’s mother Anne-Marie. Wootton Bassett has been the runaway star of the Coolmore firmament of late and his fee for this year was raised to an almost unthinkable €300k.

But even at that lofty price, in this Derby line-up he wasn’t the most expensive of the 14 sires (New Bay, Ghaiyyath, Sea The Stars and Frankel were doubly represented). Juddmonte’s Frankel’s fee is £350k. Dubawi, with one runner yesterday, has the same fee for his services at Darley Stud.

Every November the stud fees for Coolmore’s stallions are made public. I was shocked in 2023 that Australia, the 2014 Derby and Irish Derby winner and a son of another outstanding Epsom hero in the peerless Galileo, had his fee for 2024 reduced to €17,500. If potential clients needed any further encouragement, his dam is the Oaks winner Ouija Board.

I mentioned it to one of Coolmore’s stallion sales team at the time, who said it reflected his lack of popularity, probably because his progeny often needed time. He added that the only people that seemed to have confidence in him still were Aidan and Anne-Marie who sent a good number of mares to him.

Checking on my facts, I was further stunned that the 2025 fee was down to ten grand (Euro, about £8,400). Aidan and Anne-Marie sure know their stuff. It’s not too late for Australia to start going back towards the €50k at which he began his stallion career. Note, for example, that he is still at Coolmore while others have been sent elsewhere due to the hard-nosed realism that characterises the stud’s management. Of the 20 published stallion figures for flat race rather than jumps sires, only one was listed at a lower figure.

Watching from home due to entirely foreseen but inescapable circumstances, I was momentarily fooled into thinking that Lester Piggott had come back to ride in the Derby in the second running after his death. As the horses walked around, I noticed just how similar Rossa Ryan carries himself on a horse. When you get the chance, have a look. No doubt he’ll win the race one day, but the Dante Stakes winner Pride Of Arras never looked in with a chance.

One fact that certainly didn’t fool me was the dispiriting sight of the sparsely populated Hill. Every first Saturday in May, in Louisville, Kentucky, upwards of 100,000 squeeze in, a tradition in US racing that goes back to the days of the famed War Admiral/Seabiscuit match race at Pimlico in November 1938, where upstart Seabiscuit met his regally bred Kentucky Derby-winning rival and humbled him.

When I used to go to Epsom with my dad in the 1960s, there were more people there during the three-day (now one) Spring meeting in April than deigned to turn up on Saturday.

All the years I used to go there when with the Daily Telegraph, I arrived for breakfast in the old lads’ canteen, waiting for a glimpse of a few of the contenders having a leg shake in the morning, and the crowd was already building up. Many scores of buses lined the straight and the Hill was packed. On Saturday there was a sprinkling of people and even Ollie Bell and former England hockey goalie Sam Quek couldn’t disguise the fact that there was enough room for kids to play impromptu football matches.

Apparently, the Jockey Club, who run Epsom, is considering how to deal with the problem. The remedy is simple. Charge a tenner for cars and allow free admission. Then people will begin to flock back, find it an enjoyable experience and one that will develop as the years go on. I’ve never been so embarrassed. Derby Day once was a great British tradition. For most of our much-changed society, it’s an irrelevance. Thank goodness ITV think it’s worth making the effort.

Many say switching from Wednesday was a big mistake but, since Covid, it seems so few people these days have physically to GO to work, that simplification is a red herring.

It’s not as if there’s loads of competition from other sports at this time of year. On Saturday, England played a World Cup qualifying match against Andorra. Who? Our brave boys, rated number four in the world, hammered the opposition (rated 173 – I didn’t know there were that many countries) by a single goal to nil. Some of them are on £300k a week. Worth every penny I’d say.

- TS

Evaluating Jockeys by Percentage of Rivals Beaten

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In this article I will put 35 jockeys under the microscope, writes Dave Renham. These are the riders with the most rides per year, on average, over the past four years. The data has been taken from UK flat racing (turf and all-weather (AW) and the full years 2021 to 2024.

Introduction

I have further limited the findings to mounts sent off at an Industry Starting Price (ISP) of 20/1 or shorter, in order to try to eliminate most of the horses that had little or no chance; and, further, because very big-priced winners tend to skew profit figures.

For this piece I will primarily examine the data using ‘Percentage of Rivals Beaten’, although I also plan to look at strike rates and A/E indices. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a calculation based on a horse's finishing position in relation to field size. It makes key distinctions between a horse finishing, say, fourth in a seven-horse race (PRB 50%, three rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals) and finishing fourth in a sixteen-horse race (PRB 80%, twelve rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals). We express the PRB as a number between 0 and 1. So, in the examples above, 50% is 0.5 and 80% is 0.8.

As racing researchers we can often be blighted by small sample sizes when analysing, for example, win strike rates. Hence, there is a strong argument to suggest that PRB figures are a more accurate metric, simply because they make datasets bigger: they award a sliding performance score to every runner in every race, whereas win strike rate only awards the winner a score with all other finishers getting zero.

Today's offering has a slightly different flow from usual I will be writing it "as I go along". In other words, I’m sharing the research and my thinking process stage by stage, rather than doing all the research and then writing about my findings afterwards. Thus, my main commentary will appear to be in the present tense. If that makes sense, let's crack on (and if it doesn't, it soon will!)

Top Jockeys' PRB: Overall

I will start by sharing the average PRB figures for each of the 35 jockeys over this four-year period. They are ordered alphabetically across two graphs:

 

 

 

 

To provide a benchmark, the average figure when combining these jockeys was halfway between 0.58 and 0.59, so 0.585 to be precise. Oisin Murphy has the highest PRB figure, 0.64, followed by five jockeys tied on 0.62 – William Buick, James Doyle, Rob Havlin, Jack Mitchell and Danny Tudhope. Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen have the joint lowest PRB figure of 0.54.

It should be noted that all riders in this sample are above the 0.5 PRB benchmark and so even the lowest in the cohort are out-performing the norm.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 6/4 or shorter

Although I have restricted qualifiers to those priced 20/1 or shorter, there are clearly some jockeys who have more rides at shorter prices than others. Hence, I am assuming that jockeys should have higher PRBs because of this. To help analyse and potentially confirm this hypothesis I am going to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had with horses priced 6/4 or shorter. The table shows the splits:

 

 

There is a huge variance here, from William Buick with more than 13% of his rides sent off 6/4 or shorter, to Cam Hardie at less than 1%. Of the six jockeys with the highest average PRBs I noted earlier, five of them were in the top six for the highest percentage of rides (highlighted in blue in this table). Therefore, we can see there is a strong looking correlation between price and PRB, as we should expect.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 12/1 to 20/1

It makes sense next to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had when the qualifiers were bigger prices in order to consider both ends of the price spectrum. Therefore, below is a table showing these percentages when considering percentage of rides from runners priced 12/1 to 20/1.

 

 

The three jockeys with the highest percentages (shown in blue) are the jockeys who had the lowest overall PRB figures shared earlier, namely Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen: this is further evidence of clear positive correlation. Also, the lowest four percentages in this group are for Messrs Buick, Murphy, Doyle (James) and Mitchell.

At this early point in my research I am starting to appreciate that despite the fact that PRB is a really useful metric, for this type of research the price of runners is also very important and can significantly sway the balance one way or the other. Hence, the market will be factored in for the remainder of what follows.

Top Jockeys' PRB by Price Range

Having established the importance of the starting price, I have decided to calculate PRBs for different price bands for all 35 jockeys. The brackets I am going to use are again based on Industry Starting Price and they are as follows:

 

 

In the table below I have collated the PRBs for each jockey for each price band. The average figures for all jockeys in the list are shown in blue at the bottom of each column, and I have highlighted any PRB that is at least 3% above the average or at least 3% below the average. The 3% ‘above group’ (positive) is highlighted in green, the 3% ‘below group’ (negative) is in red.

 

 

The colour coding helps to highlight jockeys that seem to perform above the norm and those that may have performed below what might be expected within each price band. There were three jockeys who obtained two ‘greens’: Robert Havlin, Clifford Lee and Kieran O’Neill. And there were four jockeys who obtained two or more ‘reds’: William Buick (3), Holly Doyle (2), Joe Fanning (3) and Rob Hornby (2).

 

Top Jockeys' PRB: All-Round Performance

I am thinking that another way we could analyse these data is to simply add up each jockey’s six PRB figures in the above table and compare them.  Below, then, are the riders with the top ten combined PRB figures when adding the six values together:

 

 

It could be argued that these are the top 10 performing jockeys from my original list of 35 as their totals are based on the overall performance across different price ranges. From looking at these findings I would be happy to see one of these ten riding a horse I am keen to back. Rab Havlin, who has consistently shown positive figures in the research to date, tops the list on a combined total of 3.99. (0.88 + 0.76 + 0.68 + 0.65 + 0.55 + 0.47).

Next, here are the lowest ten combined PRB totals from our sample of the top 35 riders:

 

 

As can be seen, we are talking small margins here so despite these ten being at the bottom we know that they are all still top-notch riders. However, in terms of PRB figures within certain price bands, they have performed with slightly less success than the rest of the jockeys in this sample.

To complete the set here are the remaining jockeys (positioned 11th to 25th) with their PRB totals. Due to the bigger group, I am using a table rather than a graph:

 

 

Top Jockeys: Other Metrics

I stated earlier that PRBs are arguably the most accurate metric but it always prudent to consider other metrics where possible in order to attain a stronger 'feel' for the data.

We know that finishing fifth in an 18-runner race will produce a better PRB figure than finishing eighth in the same the race, but usually finishing fifth does not make punters money (unless those generous bookie types are offering extra places).

At this point, then, I am thinking about the key battles in terms of finishing first rather than second and, therefore, I am going to share the wins, runs, strike rate, profit/loss and A/E indices for all 35 jockeys. As with the PRB data this does not include rides on horses priced over 20/1 ISP. Profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair SP less 2% commission. The A/E indices are based on Betfair prices and any figure above 1.00 has been coloured in green:

 

 

Somewhat surprisingly, 18 of the 35 jockeys have secured a profit which is impressive considering there are not any really big BSP winners to skew the returns. In fact, the highest winning BSP was 46.0 and there were only three winners in total above BSP 40.0, and only 23 above BSP 30.0 (out of total of nearly 12,000 winners).

Rossa Ryan, Saffie Osborne and William Buick have the best ROI%s (above 7%), and they each have one of the top five A/E indices. Impressively, Ryan has made a blind profit in each of the four years, Osborne and Buick matching that feat in three of the four years surveyed. There are two jockeys that made a loss in each of the four years, namely David Allan and James Doyle.

Conclusions

All this is helping me, and hopefully you, to start building a more complete picture of jockey performance; or, at least, the performance of these 35 top riders. The PRB data have given us an extra layer on top of the usual metrics we focus on. However, it is becoming clear to me that for this type of jockey-based research we do need other metrics (win percentage, profits, A/E indices, etc) to bring betting utility to the party.

I am just starting to expand the jockey PRB research into other areas and there is plenty more to share; so I have come to the realisation that this article will spawn a second piece. Thus, it is probably too early to draw any key conclusions from the research so far as there are more pieces of the puzzle to add.

However, next week I have a Royal Ascot article ready to go, so it affords me a little extra time to do further digging for part two of this jockey deep dive!

- DR

Monday Musings: Camille

/in /by

All those Derby trials wins will have come to nought if a Ballydoyle colt doesn’t win next Saturday’s Betfred-sponsored 12-furlong skirting of Epsom Downs, writes Tony Stafford. Never mind Epsom, Aidan O’Brien and his Coolmore backers have turned winning French colts’ Classics this year into an art form.

At least, when future French turfistes look back at the record books, they will maybe delude themselves that the title Mrs Susan Magnier, stored away for further use in the copious Coolmore blue-chip name bank, had been for French-owned and trained Classic winners. But, no, Henri Matisse and Camille Pissarro, respective winners of the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) and yesterday’s Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) are just two more Aidan O’Brien examples of the right horse in the right race.

The human Pissarro, born in the (now US-owned) Vigin Islands but soon living in France, started life four decades the earlier of the pair and went through various stages of Impressionism. He died right at the start of the 20th Century (1903).

Matisse, a draughtsman as much as a painter, survived from 1869 into the middle of the last century. Great artists both, great names for a Classic winner, especially those staged in the land of their distinction.

Just as in the Poulains, Ryan Moore gave yesterday’s winner an exemplary ride. Camille Pissarro had made his own impression as he finished third with a strong finish over the mile at Longchamp while Ryan swept home in front on Henri Matisse. Henri will be staying at a mile at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes, and no doubt a clash with Irish 2,000 winner Fields Of Gold, in a fortnight.

I heard someone say yesterday watching the coverage that Aidan reckons the Prix du Jockey Club is more a race for milers than authentic 12-furlong Derby horses, thus none of the trial winners was in yesterday’s line-up.

Two Ballydoyle colts were in the 16-strong field though and it is always easy to earmark outsiders from the stable as cannon fodder if they are there to control the pace. That was the perceived lot of Trinity College, not such a massive 'rag' considering the make-up of the race – at 24/1.

He was quickly away under Wayne Lordan but wasn’t allowed to have it all his own way as Bowmark, the second string working on behalf of the Gosdens’ number one (Detain) and ridden by Tom Marquand, was busily doing his half-spoiler role for the horse that came home a close sixth in that busy end to the French 2,000.

Ryan, from stall one, was always in a lovely clear spot on the rail, a couple of lengths behind the leaders and nowhere near as far back as his mount had been in the mile race. His most dangerous (and probably only) moment came when he needed to scoot past Trinity College, a Dubawi colt running in the colours of Derrick Smith’s son Paul, best known hitherto for the St Leger winner Kingston Hill. Not much room, but he found what there was.

Paul will have loved to be involved so closely in the action here and Trinity College added to his already sterling service in the race by staying on for fourth and 70 grand which Paul shares with the usual suspects. They were behind Cualificar (Godolphin, Andre Fabre and William Buick) and Detain, ridden by Christophe Soumillon.

Wootton Bassett added further lustre to the riches provided to Coolmore Stud with this latest Classic success and he also sired the third home, running in the Abdullah colours of Field Of Gold.

With £708k available to the winner, trainers and owners with horses in the big field outside the main placings would be excused for looking further down the list. They would find, if they didn’t know already, that French money may be generous and with premiums for French-breds doubly so, but they only go down to fifth place, that 35k going to a horse from the Graffard stable.

As to the premium qualification, only the runner-up, a son of Lope De Vega running for Godolphin, was French-bred and that entitled connections to an extra £100k or so.

An unsatisfactory day for the French then – shame after the Fellowes/Shoemark affair and Shes Pretty in the 1,000. Sadly, Charlie’s Luther, fourth in their 2,000 was on the outside all the way and dropped out of the lucrative places this time.

And so to Epsom. I was talking to someone close to the stable a week or so ago and his slant on the ease in the Derby market of The Lion In Winter was explained away as “He goes to France”. They don’t always get it right.

Once backed back into favouritism after the initial shock of that Dante Stakes sixth place when he didn’t run too badly under a less than full-on Ryan Moore finish, he is now available at 6/1 and you never know how much transformation Aidan could have wrought in the short time since.

Everyone now assumes Ryan will be on the Leopardstown trial winner Delacroix, but while he looked very good that day, the opposition in a five-horse affair (two O’Brien tailenders) was hardly extremely testing. Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, and the Dante winner Pride Of Arras complete the quartet at the top of the betting.

I was very impressed with the way the Beckett three-year-old creamed through the field on the far rail and the Ackroyd family horse would make a nice change in the way of such as Sir Percy in leaving the race of the season to a smaller owner.

My first fleeting experience of the man who was by 2025 to have an authentic Derby prospect, a year after his Arc win with Bluestocking and with a yard with close to 200 horses in his care, came approaching a quarter century earlier; in fact it might have been even longer ago.

Ralph had just arrived as a pupil assistant to David Loder, who at the time was the king of the well-prepared first-time-out two-year-old. Ralph used to smilingly and good-naturedly amble his way around Sefton Lodge stables, in the manner of a youthful Pride And Prejudice aristocrat, but it seemed his casual style didn’t cut too much ice with 100 miles an hour Master Loder.

I seem to recall just one comment made by his then employer. “Lazy bugger!” All that time afterwards, the mature Ralph still seems to lope his way pleasantly around, and when he does agree to an interview, it’s still the same languid delivery. We’re not all the same, thankfully.

And now after what one might have regarded as an inauspicious start, Ralph Beckett is truly part of the powerhouse of English training.

- TS

Geegeez Pace Ratings in 5f Handicaps, Part 2

/in /by

Last week I shared my research into how the four-race pace totals on the Geegeez racecards performed across UK 5f handicaps in 2024 (excluding 2yo nurseries), writes Dave Renham. You can catch up with that article here. The results overall were impressive given we were looking essentially at raw figures with minimal additional ‘tinkering’.

Introduction

This week I am going to focus on the same dataset but combine the pace rating positions / scores with Dr Peter May’s ratings (the SR column in the Gold racecard).

To recap, the pace tab shows the running styles of the horses for a maximum of their last four races. Each past running style is given a score of between four and one. The splits are as follows:

4 – Front runner / early leader

3 – Prominent racer

2 – Raced in midfield / mid division

1 – held up near or at the back early

The SR ratings are derived from a neural network developed by Peter May. They are much more than a measure of speed; they include a number of form considerations making them a sort of composite of, in Racing Post terms, RPR (Racing Post Rating) and TS (Topspeed) - both of which we also publish in the racecards.

SR Ratings by Win Strike Rate and P/L

My starting point for this article is to see how the SR ratings performed in 5f handicaps in 2024 starting with win strike rate. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

The rating position correlates well with the win strike rate, although the 5th and 6th rated are reversed. Top rated runners have won just over 17% of the time, while those rated 7th or higher have definitely struggled from a win perspective.

I want to now look at the profit/loss figures for the top three rated runners from the SR ratings. This is because later in the article I will combining the top three in the SR ratings with the top three horses in terms of their four-run pace totals (which I order highest to lowest and call the Pace Ratings Rank). Here are the results in terms of the top three ranked in the SR ratings:

 

 

As we can see, the top-rated SR runners would have lost a small amount if backing all qualifiers blind. Second rated have nudged into profit while the third rated have seen losses around the 8p in the £.

Combining SR Top Rated with Pace Rank Top Rated

Now we know the raw performance of the SR ratings I will begin to combine them with what I call the Pace Ratings Rank. Let's first look at what would have happened if only backing runners that were top rated by both set of ratings. Here are the numbers:

 

 

This is a positive start to the Pace / SR collab! The strike rate has equated to just under one win in every five with returns of over 16p in the £. There were also 26 qualifiers that finished runner-up which is another strong positive meaning that 50 of 124 finished in the first two.

If we expand this slightly to the top three of the ratings for both, we get the following results:

 

 

We have increased the number of bets by around 6.5 times whilst keeping a similar strike rate, although return on investment is slightly less. On the upside, though, we would have made more money in profit terms (from a bigger outlay of course). There were 126 qualifiers that finished second including some at tasty BSP odds such as 40.21, 47.97 and 46.0. There was also a third that was beaten just over a length in a 28-runner handicap at BSP odds of 123.97. The horse in question, No Half Measures, raced at Ascot (21/6/24) and was arguably very unlucky having been the best finisher in the far side group in a race where nine of the first ten home raced up the centre of the course.

Considering we are just combining two different ratings in this way, to get such positive results for higher rated runners in both sets, with no other considerations, is extremely encouraging. Now, I appreciate it is just one year of handicap results at one distance, but 809 horses is a decent sample.

Performance of the Lowest Rated on Pace and SR

Let's now switch and combine lower rated runners from both the Pace Rankings and SR ratings. I am looking at the results of horses rated 8th or lower in both rating sets. Here are their combined results:

 

 

These are very poor results which breeds more confidence in our earlier positive findings when combining higher rated runners from both rating sets.

Top Three Rated on Pace and SR by Handicap Age Restriction

If we split the 809 horses that were top three rated on both Pace Rank and SR Rating into 3yo only, 3yo+ and 4yo+ races we get the following results:

 

 

All three returned a profit, and all three had relatively similar ROIs. These figures demonstrate that these higher rated runners from both sets of ratings have performed consistently regardless of the ages of the horses taking part.

Top Three Rated on Pace and SR by Selected Courses: Positive

I want next to examine the performance of the top three rated on both metrics at a selection of courses that between 2017 and 2023 had the strongest front running biases over the 5f trip. I sourced these courses in the first article by examining individual track performances of early leaders / front runners during that seven-year prior time frame. I used a combination of win percentages, placed percentages and A/E indices to formulate the list.

To recap the 12 courses were: Ayr, Chelmsford, Chester, Hamilton, Kempton, Leicester, Lingfield, Redcar, Ripon, Thirsk, Windsor and York. In that piece I examined solely the top-rated runners from their previous four-run pace totals rather than the top three.

Here now are the figures for horses that were in the top three of both the Pace Ratings and the SR ratings when running at one of those 12 courses:

 

 

That's another very solid set of results with a strike rate close to 20% and returns of over 21p in the £.

Composite Ranking Performance

My next port of call was to combine the ranking positions of both sets of ratings to create an overall numerical total. Hence if a horse was top-rated in the SR ratings and ranked 5th in the Pace Ratings/totals that would score six (1+5); if a horse was ranked 4th in both it would score eight (4+4) and so on. Now we know already what a total of two has achieved as those were the results shared earlier for the top-rated in both. Below I have combined the numerical totals into bands in a graph that shows the strike rates for each one:

 

 

This graph offers further evidence that combining the higher rated runners in each set produces better strike rates. We have the sliding scale of percentages that we always want to see when looking at any type of rating-based data set. Meanwhile, the 2-4 band (i.e. SR 1st/ Pace 1st, SR 2nd/ Pace 1st, SR 1st/Pace 2nd, and SR 2nd/Pace 2nd) have a very solid strike rate close to 19%.

Using the same calculation method and the same bands I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures. This metric considers all finishing positions based on the number of runners in each race. It is a useful metric to analyse where possible. Here are the splits:

 

 

The chart presents further strong evidence of the positive correlation we have seen throughout this article in relation to the importance of ranking position within the two sets of ratings. 58% of rivals beaten for the 2-4 band is a materially high PRB figure.

Let me now share the runs, wins, profits / losses for each band:

 

 

It is pleasing to see the 2-4 band producing the best ROI% and also seeing the 5-7 band in profit. The 11-14 group have proved profitable but essentially, they had the biggest-priced winner in the whole year (BSP 127.21) which skews their bottom line considerably. The 20+ band would, not surprisingly, have produced very poor returns from a very low strike rate.

Top Rated on SR and 15 or 16 Pace Total

In the first article I looked at some of the data for the highest four-race pace totals, namely 15 and 16. Hence, horses that had gained these scores had led early in either three or all four of those runs. Based on historical research, I've shown that it is reasonable to think that these horses are the most likely to lead in their next race. So what would have happened if we had backed the top-rated SR runner when they had a pace total of 15 or 16? The results read:

 

 

This gives us a small cohort of runners but even from a small sample the figures look promising. The PRB figure is an excellent 0.62 which adds confidence to this small set.

Top Three Rated on SR and 15 or 16 Pace Total

What happens if we expand this to the top three rated in the SR ratings with runners who had a pace total of 15 or 16? The splits are:

 

 

The number of bets has nearly tripled and although the strike rate and the ROI% have dropped a little, the results are still very positive. The PRB has dropped a little too, but it still stands at a very strong 60% of rivals beaten.

Top Three Rated on SR and Pace Rank, ISP 12/1 or shorter

Finally in this piece I am going to go back to look at the results for horses that were in top three of both the SR ratings and Pace Ratings / totals. To date I have not put in any price restrictions, but as we all know a BSP 100.0 winner can skew the bottom line considerably. One of the main reasons I haven't is because all of the bigger priced winners (BSP 30.0 or more) came from horses that were not in the top three of both. If anything, other rating position bottom lines have been the ones that have been skewed.

However, I felt it only right to share the figures for the top three rated in each when we restrict the price, and to make it clean I am using an Industry SP price cap of 12/1. So, just to clarify, the figures below are those for horses that were in the top three of both ratings and were priced ISP 12/1 or less. The figures are as follows:

 

 

These figures are better than the overall figures for top three in both. A 14p in the £ profit over 720 bets would have been an excellent return. The PRB for these runners is a very strong 0.60. All of this from just two things that can be very easily found on the Geegeez Gold Racecards.

Now that looks very good value to me!

- DR

p.s. if you're unclear how to find these, follow the steps below:

1 Look for 5f UK (turf or AW) handicaps, and ignore 2yo races

 

2 On the PACE tab, select 'last 4 races' and 'Data' view, and sort by Total. Then find the top rated or top three rated in the SR column. In this example, from last night, Jeans Maite was top rated on both last-four Pace Score and SR - and, as you can see from the second image below, won at 7/2 (BSP 4.97).

 

Made all, won!

Monday Musings: Pity Kieran

/in /by

Until a day or so after the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, my mind briefly projected back 39 years to the 1986 Derby early in June at Epsom, writes Tony Stafford. The Khalid Abdullah-owned Dancing Brave was the hot favourite for the race having won the Guineas easily but, after turning Tattenham Corner, virtually last on the wide outside under Greville Starkey, his long run up the middle of the track never looked like wresting the prize, and he finished second.

Shahrastani (HH the Aga Khan, Michael Stoute and Walter Swinburn) was the beneficiary of Starkey’s over-confidence. From that point, nobody believed the two horses were in the same parish in terms of ability, not even when Shahrastani won the Irish Derby by eight lengths later that month.

When Dancing Brave turned out next time in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, Starkey shot himself in the foot and lost the mount on the best horse in the world. After Dancing Brave came out on top, reversing the form with Shahrastani, the jockey turned and gestured to the grandstands (and probably intending the press box) in a manner that suggested HE was the man.

The publicity-shy Prince Khalid and trainer Guy Harwood clearly did not enjoy the histrionics and immediately switched horses in midstream as it were, leaving Pat Eddery to step into Greville’s misguided shoes. Pat was on Dancing Brave for the rest of his illustrious career, which culminated in an eighth win in ten career starts in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, again coming from a Starkey-like position way out of his ground to beat Bering and Shahrastani.

Neither Prince Karim Aga Khan, who died this year, nor Prince Khalid is with us now but their long-established bloodstock empires remain largely undiminished by the inevitable family transition. Both have been heavily involved in the 2025 Guineas Classics of the three major European racing countries, which culminated in Ireland this weekend.

Aga Khan IV, who died this year aged 88, still seems to cast a hypnotic spell over the racing administrators in France where the bulk of the operation’s horses are housed.

How else could the authorities that demoted Charlie Fellowes’ Shes Perfect from the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches have had their cockeyed verdict maintained by the French appeals system. Fellowes and jockey Kieran Shoemark both said they were received and treated very well when they travelled over to state their case.

As if one was needed. As I said somewhere before, it was a case of legalised thieving.

Shoemark was thus suffering a third career-shattering setback within a week and a half of Classic action on and off the track. My initial mention above of Dancing Brave and Greville Starkey is apt enough but could have been more so. Both Dancing Brave and the 2025 beaten 2,000 Guineas favourite Field Of Gold sported the Abdullah silks.

John Gosden so obviously blamed Shoemark, but I doubt the jockey, who had ridden Field Of Gold in all his previous starts and accepted blame for the defeat, would have expected such summary justice. How many jockeys have been guilty of a similar blunder but kept their jobs? Obviously, having never won a 2,000 Guineas meant defeat hurt him badly, but as they say… That’s racing BJ.

It must have been so galling for Shoemark to have sat and watched as Ireland’s habitual champion jockey Colin Keane stepped in to perform the steering job in Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas and win as he liked. Roy Keane or even the legendary Clapton-based dog trainer of the 1960s, 20 stone Paddy Keane, could have won on him!

That was one instance when the error was obvious. But Big Johnny Gosden sacked him for a misjudgement. At least Starkey got a second go and if he’d done a Ryan Moore or William Buick and just professionally went over the line with maybe a tiny hint of a smile, all probably would have been well.

Shoemark’s sacking denied me a more concrete excuse for drumming up the earlier Abdullah superstar story. Colin Keane didn’t err by over-celebrating as Field Of Gold won Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas in a common canter. Why do they say a common canter, by the way? Canters like the one exhibited by the son of Kingman are anything but common.

*

If I can digress to an element of my extensive recent use of NHS facilities, I hope nobody is offended. I had an MRI scan on my brain recently and when the results eventually came through, I jumped for joy.

Further interpretation revealed all the individual complicated areas were “unremarkable”. To think I once considered myself contrastingly remarkable in that area. The bottom line is that I’m not suffering from Alzheimer’s! Hurrah.

*

Sunday’s results affirmed that when Aidan O’Brien claims to be a couple of weeks behind, he’s not kidding. Look at the 1,000 Guineas result from Newmarket where his top-class 2yo of 2024, Lake Victoria, had finished only sixth. Yet here she started odds-on against several of the fillies that finished ahead of her, suggesting we would get a different result.

So it proved, Ryan Moore bringing Lake Victoria to challenge a furlong out and then easing clear for a margin of a little more than two lengths. That was a third win for his upwardly mobile team on the day at the Curragh. Earlier, the juvenile Albert Einstein won the Marble Hill Stakes and was inserted as favourite for Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes, while Los Angeles, brave winner of the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) will have a host of options to choose from.

But enough of Aidan and his 11th Irish 1,000 win. I was inclined to think it would have been a few more. Returning to Mr Gosden (now augmented by son Thaddeus), the stable’s long-standing number two rider Robert Havlin, conjured a win from the air at Goodwood a few minutes after the Classic success when hot favourite French Master Houdini-ed his way along the rail to nick the 1m6f handicap.

No hint was given by the joint trainers, nor expected by their faithful servant, that he might be in line for some star rides. The 2004 Directory of the Turf – I like to keep up to date – lists his address as Manton House, where Gosden was the trainer for Robert Sangster at the time.

Havlin moved with him as the back-up man in the next few years and at the age of 51 is one of the senior riders in the weighing room.

His situation – nice enough as he picked up a couple of grand for that ride the other day – reminds me of a time in the mid-1970’s when the Racing Editor at the DT, Robert Glendinning, was coming up to retirement age.

He had served during the war in a unit where Kingsley Wright, an irascible gentleman, was an officer. Blow me down, Kingsley was the sports editor when I came to the racing desk and Bob, who had no compunction about telling US what to do, used to behave as though they were still Captain and non-commissioned officer (if that, I never found out).

Both were Yorkshiremen, as was Noel Blunt, who had been a redcap (the hated Military Police) in his conscription time and had climbed the pole to be deputy racing editor, to the extent he would sit in Bob’s chair on Bob’s day off.

We used to go to a pub called the Albion for Sunday lunch as did lots of people from the St Paul’s Church Choir, so in need were they of the gargantuan portions. My shifts didn’t always work for me to have lunch, but Noel’s did and he used to buttonhole the boss whenever he could, considering there were always sports journalists from the Daily Mail and Daily Express hanging on every word.

So Bob is retiring, and one Sunday Noel plucked up the courage to ask the question he’d been agonising over for months. “What’s happening when Bob retires, Kingsley?” Kingsley: – I wasn’t there, but I know what his movements would have been – says, taking off his glasses and leaving them next to his pint: “Noel, your present position is assured.”  Still the most ingenious put-down line I’ve heard. Later that day, Noel announced that he wouldn’t be going to the Albion any more. “It’s no longer value-for-money.”

Soon after, we heard a guy was coming down from the Manchester office to take the job, Kingsley’s son Chris, whose favourite times of the day were when he took his breaks in the local hostelries. Within weeks Noel was off to the Sporting Life! Who says nepotism is dead?

There is no question that sitting in as number two has been full value to Havlin. No doubt Kingsley’s response would have been Big John’s answer if at any time over the last 20 years Rab had had the cheek to ask that question.

  • TS

Roving Reports: Technical Issues, Please Stand By…

/in /by

Spring has well and truly sprung in May, writes David Massey. The winter jumper has (almost) been packed away, the shorts are back on and will be until September now, and the cereal has been changed. By this I mean, for eight months of the year my chosen breakfast is Weetabix with hot milk on. A malty delight, I'm sure you'll agree. But from May to August it's the summer cereals - take your pick from bog-standard corn flakes through wholewheat hoops to Special K with red berries in. Fairly sure the last named counts as one of my five a day, along with the two segments of Terry's Chocolate Orange I allow myself with a yoghurt each evening. Orange is the key word here, ignore the other bits. 

I have been to three of our most picturesque courses in the past few weeks. Newmarket for the Guineas meeting, followed by two days of Chester and, last week, three days of York. Newmarket and Chester also have something else in common, namely I have more wi-fi and connection issues there than anywhere else in the country, and that includes Fakenham, despite the Norfolk venue being in the middle of nowhere. 

Anyway, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. Newmarket saw myself and the wife head down for two days of quality Flat action, although not before I'd been at Cheltenham for the Hunters evening. "You just can't leave it alone, can you?" said Vicki to me on 2000 Guineas Day as she caught me looking at Worcester's Monday card at the time. She's right, it's an addiction. "Hello, my name is David, and I'd like to start by saying I can't stop looking at poor quality jumps cards between May and September." Sympathetic nods from the rest of the room. 

Vicki very much drives the Trackside bus during the Flat season and I take a back(ish) seat, although I'm more than happy to stick my oar in when it comes to the all-aged handicaps, as that's where I'm happiest. So the Saturday, for all we've a Group 1 on the card, backed up by some other class contests, is very much a game of two halves, Brian, with Vicki taking the first five and me the last four, as the World Pool want nine races today and by Jove they're going to have them. However, with the last four all being handicaps and Vicki doing other work on the day, I'm going to help out and cover as much as possible late on. But, those wi-fi issues. It means finding a sweet spot in the paddock and not moving, or I lose connection completely. Some repeaters around the paddock - as Cheltenham have done - might be nice. So not only am I struggling to relay information, it also means I can't get the live pictures from Uttoxeter. (There's no helping me. Save yourselves.)

The wife is having the same issues and is struggling to place a bet, so I'm pleased it isn't only me, in that respect. Newmarket's free wifi has all the signal strength of two tin cans and a bit of string, so that's of no help. I decide we're going into Newmarket tomorrow and I'm buying a dongle to solve our tech problems. 

Our Airbnb for the night is in Cambridge, and it's a strange one. Normally you take a room in someone's house for the night and to an extent that was true here, but there were about a dozen rooms and seemingly someone living in most of them. The room and place itself were almost new, to the point where the stickers hadn't been taken off the appliances (it's fine, I know how to use a bath, thanks for the help) but it's the first time I've ever known twelve flats within one house. Only issue was the bed was in a corner, so whoever slept next to the wall is pinned in for the night. Unlucky if you need the loo at three in the morning...

We head back to Newmarket for a fancy breakfast in the Tack Room, which is attached to the Racing Museum in town. If you've never been, I recommend it; a touch pricey and you're paying for a bit of theatre (you can gaze lovingly at the statue of Frankel as you wolf your locally-sourced sausages down) but the food and service are always top-notch. Bellies full, we head into town and the EE shop for my dongle. Turns out it's closed on Sundays, which means another day of intermittent signal issues. Oh well. At the moment that's less of a concern than the freezing cold weather. The wind has really got up and you'd not think it was spring. It was warmer than this at Cheltenham on Friday night. The winter jumper makes an unwelcome, if brief, reappearance as the day passes by without much incident, the signal barely holding up again. 

Chester is my next port of call. It's a lovely town, with beautiful Roman architecture, an incredible open-air theatre and, of course, those Grade 1-listed walls. What Chester isn't designed for is traffic, and God help you if you miss your turning in town, it'll add half an hour to your journey as you try and get back to where you were. But I finally arrive at the course with time to spare. I'm here for the first two days of the May meeting, and the sun is finally out. 

Much like Newmarket, Chester is a lovely track to visit as a punter, a more sociable day out you'll struggle to have; although the queues for the ChesterBet pitches tell me this isn't a crowd here for a serious wager. On one of the hottest days of the year so far, lunch is chicken curry. I decide to pass, and go in search of a sandwich. 

I'm not going to bang on about the wifi again, suffice to say Chester, in its own little valley, makes Newmarket seem like 5G Central. There are precisely three places I can stand and get a signal. Thankfully, standing still is very much a physical activity in my wheelhouse, so I get through the afternoon unscathed. Little Trackside hint here: I thought Aidan's Minnie Hauk, who won the Cheshire Oaks, would come on a ton for that, and she is most definitely top of my list for the Epsom version. 

I've left dining arrangements for the evening to "Scoop" Linfoot from the Sporting Life and he's found us a decent Italian, he says. Not only is he right, it's superb, but we have the best result of the day as we're informed it's the Wednesday Special - two courses and a bottle of wine (each!) for twenty notes. And they say you can't eat value. I disagree, if only for tonight. 

Having dined well, it's back to my digs, and I've lucked in here as well. Really comfy place and the lady that owns it is a photographer, and has loads of old cine equipment around the house. Also, a slight obsession with Monopoly memorabilia. She's also got a clapped-out TR7 on the drive she appears to be doing up. So, slightly mad, but in a lovely way, and I'll return here again. In fact, if it was twenty minutes nearer Aintree...

Finally, to York last week. Three days of top-class action and it does not disappoint. York was the first time Vicki and I have shared accommodation and the fact we're still speaking to each other tells you all went well. That, despite me forcing her watch the Eurovision semi-final on the Thursday night, which I think she secretly enjoyed (was all in the name of research, I'd volunteered to do the Eurovision preview for the Life and yes, I did put the winner up, thanks for asking). 

It was also great to bump into some old friends I hadn't seen in a while, and have a catch up on the Champagne Lawn. Not that I was, obviously, with work to do and a clear head needed. The strongest thing I had on the week was a Coke Zero, as I'm trying to be good and cut a little sugar out recently. However, that all went out the window when, on the Thursday night, Vicki discovered The Sweet Lab, a place where all your magical sugary dreams come true. My heart-attack-inducing Galaxy Brownie, slathered in whipped cream, contained about a million calories and ruined all the good work of the day, but hey, it tasted amazing. When are we back here for the Ebor? 😉 

- DM

An Analysis of Geegeez Pace Ratings in 5f handicaps

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In some recent articles I have extolled the virtues of the Geegeez Racecard for Gold members, for example, when looking at Dr Peter May’s ratings (the SR column), writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

Another huge bonus of these racecards is the pace tab. The pace tab shows the running styles of the horses for a maximum of their last four races. Each past running style is given a score of between four and one, as follows:

4 – Front runner / early leader

3 – Prominent racer

2 – Raced in midfield / mid division

1 – held up near or at the back early

Long standing Geegeez members will have read previous articles of mine emphasising the importance of running style / early pace in a race under specific conditions. Usually though I am looking at the performance of different run styles in certain races which is based on knowledge gleaned after the race has been run. For example, how well have front runners performed over a particular course or distance.

In this article I will examine the Geegeez pace figures to see if they can help in terms of giving us an edge pre-race. I have looked at a year’s worth of pace ratings data that was published in the Geegeez Racecards before each race. The focus is on 5f handicaps (excluding 2yo nurseries) as these races tend to accentuate any run style bias. To be clear, the words 'ratings' and 'rankings' are used somewhat interchangeably in what follows. Higher ratings generally equate to higher rankings.

Past number crunching has noted the edge early leaders / front runners have at this minimum 5f distance. [Type ‘sprint’ into the search box here for a five-part deep dive into 5f handicaps]

However, the problem of taking advantage of any front running bias is that we do not know which horse is going to take the early lead in any given race. If we did then most of us would have made enough money to retire by now! The one tool that should be able to help us is the Geegeez Gold pace tab. Logic dictates that the higher a horses’ pace rating total, the more likely it is to lead. Let me share an example of a 5f handicap race run last month focusing on the pre-race pace ratings:

 

 

The first point to note, before we look at the pace totals for each runner, is the performance of early leaders at Wolverhampton. We can see from the green box that they have won nearly 25% of the time and, if able to back them all, we would have made huge profit.

This goes back to what I said previously about how useful it would be if we knew the early leader pre-race. Looking at the pace totals we can see they range from 13 to 7 with Wedgewood the highest on 13.

Hence, we would expect Wedgewood to be the most likely early leader. This is the result, with some additional sectional data.

 

 

As we can see Wedgewood, under geegeez-sponsored jockey Marco Ghiani, did indeed take the early lead and was never headed. Of course, the top-rated runner is not going to lead all the time, and the top-rated runner is not going to win all the time. However, from some past 5/6f research I shared with readers back in January 2021 those with higher pace totals led more often than those with lower ones and therefore we would expect them to win more often.

The sample size in that article was far smaller than I am sharing now but it was big enough to suggest that horses with the highest pace totals of 15 or 16 would take the early lead around 45% of the time, whereas those with the lowest pace totals of 4 or 5 would take the early lead less than 3% of the time.

In this piece I am more interested in the performance of each horse based on their pace totals / positions in the racecard, rather than how many of the top-rated runners led. Essentially, as punters we want to make money and so I wanted to find out answers to questions such as, “has the top-rated runner made a profit?”, “is the top-rated runner better value than those rated say 8 or lower?”, “do horses with pace totals of 15 or 16 perform better than those with totals of 8 or less?”, and so on.

The 2024 5f handicap data I have crunched covers just under 600 races and that means 5200 horses with their individual pace totals. This, then, is a very decent sample, and one that took quite a while to collate! After all the leg work to input the data, I hoped that I would find something worth sharing! Let’s see…

 

Pace Rating Rank

To begin with let’s look at performance based on the ranking positions of runners from their four-race pace totals. In the earlier Wolverhampton example this would mean the following:

 

 

Horses with the same totals such as Four Adaay and Angle Land have been given the same ranking position. I have applied this idea across all the races in the study. On that basis, here are the win strike rates, with those rated 8th or bigger in one group:

 

 

This is the type of sloping graph I had hoped for with the top-ranked pace horse winning more often than the second ranked, who in turn has scored more than the third ranked and so on. However, I had not expected it to correlate so neatly.

Below are the Betfair SP profit and loss figures for the same pace rating ranks.

 

 

The top two ranked (inc. joints) have both nudged into profit which is obviously a clear positive. The 4th ranked runners have effectively broken even, but the 3rd ranked runners have let the side down for ‘the top four’ with quite steep losses. Once we get 6th and bigger in the rankings, we can see losses have started to mount up with those 8th or bigger losing nearly 20p in the £.

Looking in a bit more detail at the top two ranked (inc. joints) if we restrict races to those with 12 runners or less, we see the following results:

 

 

If, therefore, we had stuck to mid-range to smaller field sizes, then the figures improve further for the top two ranked pace runners. These are tidy ‘blind’ profits using nothing other than the Geegeez pace ratings.

 

Pace Rating Total

Let’s pivot now to the four-race pace totals covering each horse’s most recent four runs. The maximum total a horse can attain is 16 (four 4s), and the lowest is 4 (four 1s). I have looked at win strike rates first below to see if there is a similar pattern to the Pace Rating Rank graph shared earlier. I have grouped the individual totals up so have joined 15 with 16, 13 with 14 and so on. Here are the findings:

 

 

We see the same type of pattern as before, although the 4 to 6 group have just ‘spoiled’ my ideal pace score graph by winning slightly more often in percentage terms than the 7 to 8 group. Again, though, this highlights that horses which have shown more early speed in their most recent four races have a better chance of winning 5f handicaps than those which have not shown gate speed. As we know, higher strike rates do not necessarily mean bigger profits, so let’s see how the returns figures have panned out:

 

 

Those horses recording a four-race pace total of 15 or 16 have combined to make a sound profit equating to returns of over 16p in the £. The general pattern is that as the rating totals drop the losses start to increase, although the 4 to 6 group buck that trend.

Pace Ratings at Different Courses

I want to look at some course data now although with only races from one calendar year, several tracks have limited samples to potentially analyse. Hence, as Baldrick would say, “I have a cunning plan”. The first phase of this plan was to back check past pace/run style course data in 5f handicaps from a longer prior time frame. I chose 2017 to 2023, and I examined the course performance of early leaders / front runners. By using win percentages, placed percentages and A/E indices, I was able to order the courses from the most front-runner biased to the least.

From there I decided to group the 12 most biased courses together in one group (group A) and the 12 courses with the weakest front running biases in a second group (group B). The idea was simple: I wanted to compare the 2024 performance of top-rated runners across both groups, with the hope being that the Group A stats for front runners would be far superior to those for Group B. Here are my findings:

Group A

The 12 courses in this group are Ayr, Chelmsford, Chester, Hamilton, Kempton, Leicester, Lingfield, Redcar, Ripon, Thirsk, Windsor and York. Funnily enough, due to plenty of past course / run style number crunching, if I had been given the task to decide what I thought the strongest 5f course biases were without any past stats at my fingertips, I would have chosen 11 of the 12. Knowing that gave me good confidence in this past course data.

So, looking at the top-rated runners in the Geegeez Pace Ratings at Group A courses we see the following results:

 

 

These results are rather impressive both from a strike rate perspective (4% higher than the figure for all courses) and a bottom line one. Returns of over 41p in the £ are not to be sniffed at.

Group B

The ‘dirty dozen’ courses in this group are Ascot, Carlisle, Chepstow, Doncaster, Goodwood, Haydock, Newbury, Newcastle, Newmarket, Nottingham, Sandown and Yarmouth. When looking at the top-rated runner across all courses combined, we get the following:

 

 

Wow! This is an even bigger differential than I had expected. Returns at these 12 courses have created losses of over 26p in the £. It does seem that the 2017 to 2023 data was a very accurate reflection of the relative front-running biases at these courses.

One would hope that we witness a similar difference between the course groups when looking at horses that achieved a pace rating of 15 or 16 although the sample sizes are a little on the small side now:

 

 

Again, we have a significant difference between groups in both strike rate and returns. As previously mentioned, the sample sizes are smaller than ideal but with the correlation between the two data groups being so strong we can have more confidence as a result in these second set of figures.

 

 

Top Rated by Age Group

The final area I want to delve into today is top-rated pace runners, and the 15-16 pace score runners, across the three main age groupings. These are 3yo only races, 3yo+ races and 4yo+ races. Let’s first compare the strike rates for the top-rated:

 

 

I have to confess these figures surprised me. I expected the top-ranked to score more often in 4yo+ handicaps where the runners are more exposed. However, it is the complete opposite with the top-ranked winning more often in 3yo only races. It should be noted that the average field size for 3yo only races was slightly smaller than for both 3yo+ and 4yo+, but not enough to make any significant difference to these percentages. Of course, strike rate is only one piece of the puzzle and when we look at the overall figures for each in terms of top-ranked in the four-race pace totals we see things change around a little:

 

 

The 3yo only top-ranked pace runners did make a profit, but the 4yo+ top-ranked pace runners performed especially well on the profit front. It wasn’t such a good read for the 3yo+ top-ranked runners with losses edging towards 16p in the £.

Now it’s time to see if the horses with a pace rating of 15 or 16 have performed in a similar fashion across the different age ranges. Here are my findings:

 

 

The sample size for 3yo only races is small, but they once again have secured the highest strike rate, albeit only just greater than 4yo+ qualifiers. Once again though the best value by far has been in the 4yo+ races with some impressive profits and returns achieved.

*

Whilst this article has looked only at a single year's worth of 5f handicap pace rating data, the findings across the board have correlated positively. Moreover, with nearly 600 races in the sample we should be fairly confident in the data.

I for one will be keeping an even closer eye on 5f handicaps in the future as there seems to be value in the top two rated runners, and those that have totals of 15 or 16 points. Of course, all the horses with totals of 16 will be top-rated (or joint top-rated), while those scoring 15 will often be either top-rated or second top.

For those who have enjoyed this week’s offering the good news is I have a follow-up piece to share next week – and it’s got some excellent payoffs!

- DR

Monday Musings: Hegemony

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A friend asked me the other day, “If a bookmaker offered you even money about Aidan O’Brien winning the Derby this year, would you take it?”, writes Tony Stafford.

The question arose after the pre-York blanket dominance in the trials at Chester, Lingfield and Leopardstown and before the possibly temporary reputation tarnishing of The Lion In Winter, that one in the ruck behind Ralph Beckett’s Pride Of Arras in the Dante Stakes.

Amazingly, in view of the ease of the Ackroyd family’s horse’s victory on the Knavesmire, The Lion In Winter has hardened back in price after an initial ease by the bookmakers. In some places he’s a shorter price than his York conqueror.

Michael Tabor had suggested the day before that The Lion In Winter was running later in the piece than is normal for returning Derby candidates from the Ballydoyle stable but then, on June 7, the Derby is as late as it can be for a first Saturday in the month.

Anyway, the latest ante-post prices for the big race list the Leopardstown trial winner Delacroix as favourite at 5/2 ahead of Godolphin’s 2,000 Guineas hero Ruling Court (4/1), emphasised by trainer Charlie Appleby during York as firmly on target for Epsom Downs.

But after him and the two Dante protagonists, three of the next four are from the Coolmore team and their joint odds take out 66% so appreciably more than the requisite 50% for even money. And that’s not all their potential runners which, as we said last week, do not preclude an O’Brien win at long odds.

I was minutely involved with the win of Oath in 1999 and for me that seems not so long ago, recalling embarrassingly cavorting next to the unsaddling enclosure with his lad after his win for the Sir Henry Cecil stable and the Thoroughbred Corporation of Prince Ahmed Salman. It’s salutary to remember that Aidan hadn’t even won the race by that time.

Now he has – and how – with ten of the last 24 (or 42%) falling to him. Interestingly, until he starts getting different owners in the yard, he still won’t match either Sue (wife of John) Magnier and Tabor who have 11 thanks to the win of the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi in 2011 on top of Aidan’s ten.

By last year, they had all exceeded the nine of Lester Piggott, the foremost Derby jockey of all time. Piggott’s skill at riding the difficult Epsom track was only exceeded by the powers of persuasion he used to get on a feasible candidate when he didn’t have a retained ride (and sometimes when he did!) through his long career.

As I write on this Sunday morning, there are still 20 days remaining before the Derby and you can add another three since the Dante. In normal circumstances, 23 days between runs is rarely regarded as inadequate time to recover from the early exertions and build on that for an improved display next time.

Last year, City Of Troy had 28 days between an abject performance in the 2,000 Guineas and his dominating display in the Derby. What’s a few days when they are being managed by a genius? In the meantime, Delacroix is a solid enough flag-bearer having won as I said last week the significant Leopardstown Trial in such authoritative manner.

A closer look reveals O’Brien’s first two Derby wins in successive years, Galileo and High Chaparral, were the second and third of his 17 wins in the former Derrinstown, now Leopardstown, Derby Trial (talk about hegemony – it’s more like annihilation of his training colleagues). No Derby winner has come from the race since, although Dylan Thomas in 2006 won the Irish Derby and later the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Another superb winner of the race was subsequent peerless stayer Yeats who was scratched from the 2004 Derby for which he was the hot favourite at the time through injury a few days before. Four Gold Cup wins in succession guaranteed his place in racing folklore and was the crowning achievement for David and Diane Nagle’s Barronstown Stud, never mind its being responsible for 29 winners of 44 Classic or Group 1 races around the world.

All in all, I say to my friend, therefore, on the stats alone, evens would be a good price, if anyone would be daring enough to offer it. I do have a sneaking feeling though that Pride Of Arras, with only two –  both winning – career runs behind him, may have at least the potential improvement of the hitherto harder-worked Delacroix or even The Lion In Winter.

Then we always have the debate about which horse is the more likely to have progressed and will stretch out even further for trying 1m4f around Epsom. Usually, the class horses keep going and all the worries about stamina every year are dispelled in the two minutes and 40 seconds or thereabouts. Few, if any, of the O’Brien runners in the Derby have failed through lack of stamina. Normally, class tells.

The Coolmore boys like a little insurance and while they weren’t intimately involved in ownership at the business end of the 2,000 Guineas, it didn’t upset them too much that the Godolphin winner Ruling court is by their US-based stallion Justify, sire of course of last year’s Derby hero City Of Troy.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby a couple of weeks ago was a setback for Journalism, a horse they had bought into with a view of his standing as a stallion in their Ashford Stud in Kentucky alongside Justify and their other Triple crown winner American Pharoah when he retires from racing for the Michael McCarthy stable.

He had been outstayed at Churchill Downs by Godolphin homebred Sovereignty, but that horse was immediately declared an absentee from the next leg of the Triple Crown, the half a furlong shorter Preakness Stakes run at Pimlico last Saturday evening.

In his absence, Journalism, understandably, was the even-money favourite to get his name on the Classic honours board and, after a bit of a barging match, got up close home by half a length from Gosger.

In the old days, any interference in races in the US brought instant and inevitable disqualification. Not so now it seems, yet in France, as in everything else in that country, they have their own standards. I’ve had a few looks at the disqualification of Charlie Fellowes’ Shes Perfect after their 1,000 Guineas last weekend and declare it as legalised thieving.

Interference to Zarigana was negligible and Kieran Shoemark on the original winner was blameless, instantly correcting her leftward drift by changing his whip into his left hand. Zarigana did have a tiny inconvenience, mainly from the horse in the sandwich between the two fillies, and probably suffered the most difficulty when Mickael Barzalona dropped his whip a furlong from home. His negligence was rewarded with a promoted Classic winner. Shameful.

That coming eight days after Shoemark’s being outmanoeuvred in the 2,000 Guineas by William Buick on Ruling Court was a double kick in the teeth for the rider. Worse came in between, a public dressing-down by John Gosden, saying he and son Thady would now be choosing “best available” for their horses not already committed to retained owner arrangements.

The first painful effect of that came on Saturday in the Lockinge Stakes. Lead Artist, on his favoured fast ground, turned around Sandown form to edge out Dancing Gemini by a neck over the straight mile. In eight previous races, Shoemark had been in the saddle. Here he was supplanted on the Juddmonte-owned four-year-old by Oisin Murphy. Some transgressions are treated more leniently than others. Is that what two-tier justice is about?

The winner’s prize was £226k. Generally, jockeys receive around 8.5% of the winner’s prize, so I reckon Kieran’s ejection has already cost him £20k and the embarrassment that goes with it. That John Gosden! Some man!

- TS

Two-Year-Old Sires in 2025

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It is several years since I analysed two-year-old (2yo) sire data and so, early in the flat season, I felt now was a good time to revisit, writes Dave Renham. This article examines eight years of UK flat racing data (turf and AW) spanning from 2017 to 2024. I will be comparing win strike rates, as I usually do for this type of article, but for the first time in my sire research I will also share Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB for short) data. There is a strong argument to suggest that PRB figures are the most accurate metric, so I am excited to be able to include them. Further, I will include some A/E index calculations and these will be based on Betfair Starting Prices. (For more on A/E and other metrics used on geegeez, and why we use them - and why we think you should, too - check out this post)

If you have not read a sire article before, let me briefly set the scene. Sires are the fathers of the respective racehorses, and they typically have an influence on their progeny (offspring).  For example, if the sire was originally a sprinter there is a good chance that his progeny will perform better at sprint distances than over say marathon trips. Sires also vary in quality, which will generally influence the next generation in terms of inherent ability. Some sires, for example, achieve around one win in every five starts with their progeny, others are nearer one win in 20. Using sire data is particularly useful for 2yo races because the actual horse form can be sparse or indeed non-existent if the two-year-old is making its debut.

Sires: All Two-Year-Old Races

Let's begin by looking at some sire data for all 2yo races. To qualify a sire must have had at least ten progeny runs in 2024, and 275 or more in total over the eight years. In addition, to make the following list they needed to be in the top 50 in terms of win strike rate. I have ordered them alphabetically:

 

 

In terms of win strike rate, then, Dubawi heads the list at 23.26%, followed by New Bay (21.23%), Frankel (19.83%), Kingman (19.2%) and Night Of Thunder (18.15%). From a PRB perspective, Dubawi (0.65), Frankel (0.63) and Kingman (0.63) are the top three. They are followed by French sire Siyouni (0.62), Sea The Stars (0.61) and Lope De Vega (0.61).

From a betting viewpoint, however, Dubawi and Frankel have not offered particularly good value with Betfair A/E indices of 0.93 and 0.89 respectively. Backing Dubawi progeny blind would have yielded losses of over 9p in the £, and Frankel over 16p in the £, at Betfair SP.

 

Sires: Two-Year-Old Races by Distance

I want to look at some distance data now. I have split the full set into three cohorts: races over 5 and 6 furlongs, races over 7 furlongs or a mile, and races over 1m1f or more. For the record there are on average only 30 races per year for 2yos over 1m1f or more, so for some sires there is limited data there. If a sire has had 20 or fewer qualifying runs over the distance range, I have left that entry blank.

The table shows the win strike rates and PRBs for each distance range. Sires are listed alphabetically once more and any individual sire’s PRB distance range value which is 0.05 higher than one of their others has been highlighted in green:

 

 

Let me drill down into some of these sires in terms of distance performance/preference starting with New Bay.

New Bay stands at Ballylinch Stud for €75,000 which looks a bit of a steal based on his 2yo results to date. In terms of distance his offspring have run only 22 times at 1m1f or more so it is at shorter ranges I would like to concentrate. His progeny's strike rate over 7f to 1 mile is more than double that of his 5f-6f figure, and the difference in the PRBs is a very significant 0.10. The Betfair A/E indices show a chasm between the two also with an index of 1.01 for the shorter sprint distance and 1.53 over the longer 7f to 1m range.

New Bay had his first crop of 2yos in 2020 and the graph below shows the win and each way (win & placed) strike rates by year for the 7f to 1m distance:

 

 

The each way figures are all over 40% with 2024 nudging over 50. 2023 saw a slight dip in the win rate but, overall, this performance has been extremely impressive. Backing all qualifiers blind would have yielded a profit in every year to BSP with three of the five seeing ROI%s of over 80%. In terms of yearly PRBs and A/E indices we see the following:

 

 

These figures correlate well with each other and with the pure win strike rates. Over 7f to 1m, New Bay looks a sire to keep on side.

 

Havana Grey is a relatively new sire on the scene (first crop 2022), but his progeny have already shown a strong preference for sprint trips. Considering his runners over 7f-plus first, this group would have lost us nearly 60p in the £ if betting all 153 of them (14 won).

By contrast, switching to shorter trips (up to six furlongs) his issue have fared particularly well when strong in the market. Those starting in the top two of the betting have secured 74 winners from 204 (SR 36.3%) for a profit of £26.13 (ROI +12.8%). Additionally, Havana Grey progeny that have taken the early lead over these sprint trips have performed well above the norm, winning 38 from 108 (SR 35.2%) for a profit of £108.67 (ROI +100.6%).

 

For No Nay Never, the 6f trip specifically looks optimal. Below are the yearly win and each way strike rates for No Nay Never two-year-old progeny at six furlongs:

 

 

These are consistent figures and, in terms of yearly PRBs and A/E indices, we see the following:

 

 

Five of the seven annual PRB figures are above 0.60, while all bar one of the A/E indices are over 1.00 - excellent numbers.

No Nay Never is a fine 2yo sire worth keeping in our corner; and his record at distances other than six furlongs is solid, too. At 7f-plus his runners have secured a BSP profit in five of the seven years (five of the last five).

 

Soldier’s Call has only thrown two crops of racing age thus far - 2025 will be his third - but already there is a strong suggestion that the shorter the trip the better for his juveniles. That should come as little surprise given that Soldier’s Call was a top-notch sprinter himself (2nd in the Nunthorpe, 3rd in the King Charles III (formerly King's Stand), 3rd in the Abbaye). At a flat 5f only (thus, excluding 5½f) his strike rate was a tad above 16%, while at 6f it was 9.2%, and over 7f+ just 1.4% ( 1 win from 74).

 

Sires: Two-Year-Old Races by Going

The next area I want to look at is the going. I will share PRB figures for turf versus all-weather, as well as splitting the turf going into four subsets – good to firm/firm, good, good to soft, and soft/heavy. Any value within each sire’s groupings that I perceive to be strong or weak I have coloured green (positive) and red (negative). These are only my interpretations of the PRBs and that may differ slightly from how others may perceive them. Anyway, here are the splits:

 

 

This table offers a few useful sire pointers, four of which I'd like to highlight.

Firstly, returning to New Bay we see that his progeny PRB figure on good to firm or firmer has been poor in comparison with his figures for other ground conditions.

Mayson has performed far better on easier ground (good to soft, soft and heavy), while Acclamation has been better with firmer conditions (good to firm+).

Too Darn Hot has had excellent results on easier ground (good to soft or softer) hitting a strike rate of 23.5% (24 wins from 102 runners) for a profit of £38.50 (ROI +37.8%).

 

Sires: Two-Year-Old Races by Gender

The penultimate sets of 2yo sire PRBs I want to share are connected with the sex of the horse – in other words, whether the progeny was male or female. I have included the win strike rates as well as PRB and, again, I have colour coded some PRBs either positive or negative based on my perception of the specifics of the individual sire’s data:

 

 

Possibly the most powerful stats from this table come from Kodi Bear. Looking at the bare numbers it seems as though males have had a significant edge; this is further underlined when comparing the profit/losses, returns and A/E indices:

 

 

As the table above shows, there is a differential of around 37p in the £ in terms of returns; males have much better figures across the board.

 

Sires: Two-Year-Old Races when Betfair Market Leader

Finally in this piece I am going to look at the results when the 2yo has started favourite on the Exchange. In the table I have included the sires that had 50 or more runners start favourite during the eight year study period:

 

 

Just over half (19 of 37) returned a profit to BSP which is more than I was expecting. It is interesting to see Dubawi and Frankel again both making losses, with their high profile progeny typically wildly over-bet. The PRBs for the sires listed range between 0.83 (Harry Angel and New Bay) down to a very skinny 0.71 (Muhaarar).

There are seven sires that, based on these past stats, are worth noting when starting favourite in the future. They are Bated Breath, Harry Angel, Kodiac, Lope De Vega, New Bay, No Nay Never and Oasis Dream. All have been profitable, all have A/E indices of 1.10 or above, and all have PRBs of 0.80 or more in this context.

 

*

There were a few more tables than usual in this piece, but I felt that was necessary to convey the differences between sires under certain conditions. I hope this will help us when betting on 2yo races this season and beyond.

The fifty sires discussed have combined to father around 40% of all raced 2yos in UK between 2017 and 2024. That is not, of course, to say that we should ignore other sires but these are the most prominent.

It is important also to note that many sires imbue their progeny with no obvious preference for distance or going or whatever else. We must recognise the limitations of datasets, and that even neutral statistics have some utility in our betting, albeit probably less so than positive and negative ones.

- DR

Monday Musings: When You’re Luck’s Out…

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I haven’t seen a proper replay of the French 1,000 Guineas finish - after that stewards’ enquiry I can’t be bothered to call it by its actual name, writes Tony Stafford. It’s hard not to be sorry for trainer Charlie Fellowes, his group of owners known as Basher Watts Racing 2 and jockey Kieran Shoemark, the team associated with Shes Perfect.

Sky Sports Racing elected to show the entirety of the 4.10 race from Plumpton, a series final hurdle race for inexperienced riders, with the big race (4.05 at Longchamp) showing commentary-free in a small right-hand corner of the screen. They played it after showing a re-run of the finish of the Plumpton race – maybe they were frightened that Peter Savill might get the needle if they went over to a Classic while it was actually being run?

After going over the line narrowly in first, the local stewards turned the verdict over in favour of Zarigana, running in the colours of the late Aga Khan. Everyone will be commiserating with Shoemark after the abrupt sacking as number one for the Gosden team following his fast-finishing second place on Field Of Gold in the previous weekend’s 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

A quick riposte on the next available weekend would have been a massive boost for him, but my own sympathies are at least as much directed to the owners who paid €50k for the Sioux Nation filly (out of a Galileo mare, no less) at Arqana’s May Breeze-Up a year ago. It was at that auction that Ruling Court, the horse that denied Field Of Gold and Shoemark, went through the ring 18 lots later for €2.3 million.

It would have been a remarkable Classic double on the same day for the sales company. Fellowes had fancied his chances of avenging a neck defeat by Zarigana in the Prix De La Grotte (Group 3), over the same course and distance last month.

In that context her price of 18/1 about Shes Perfect against the 4/5 of the favourite was a real aberration. Sadly, the stewards decided to allow yet another Classic win for those famous Aga Khan colours, denying Charlie Fellowes a crowning glory to his training career.

Immediately after the race, the jubilant owners, all booted and suited alike, were probably working out what each of them would be collecting from the £269k first prize. Their sights and no doubt their excitement was modulated with just over 100 grand to divvy up for second.

With 4th, 6th, 11th and 13th in the fillies’ Classic, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore had a fleeting opportunity to see how the other half lives.

Leading into the Newmarket Guineas weekend, the story going around was that the Ballydoyle horses were a couple of weeks behind where the trainer would have liked and the single runner in both the 2,000 and 1,000 finished out of the frame.

Things move swiftly though in the pre-Derby and Oaks segment of the season and, since last weekend, O’Brien has won three Derby/Oaks trials at Chester; the Derby and Oaks trials at Lingfield on Saturday and Leopardstown’s time-honoured eliminator yesterday too.

To those manoeuvring performances, there was the more meaningful one-three in the French 2,000 Guineas that immediately preceded the fillies’ race. Here, Moore on Henry Matisse got the better of Andrew Balding’s Jonquil with Camille Pissarro a fast-finishing third after a crazy early gallop.

Fellowes did well here too. He had also given Luther a bright chance beforehand, conceding that a wide draw didn’t help. He flew down the outside for fourth, a short neck behind the O’Brien second string, again under Shoemark.

That sequence of O’Brien winners inevitably will have the York bookmakers dreading what to expect from the one talking horse of the spring among Coolmore’s Derby candidates. The Lion In Winter, who had the 2,000 Guineas hero Ruling Court back in third place when they met in last year’s Acomb Stakes over seven furlongs of the course in August is primed for his re-introduction in the Dante Stakes.

It was in this race 12 months ago that we saw a Derby-level performance by William Haggas’s Economics, but he reckoned the colt was too immature for the Derby at that stage of his development, and he duly sidestepped the Classic.

There will not be any similar reservations this time I’m sure, especially if the Lion In Winter can cope with Ruling Court’s stablemate, unbeaten supplementary entry Alpine Trail, who made his tally three from three in the Newmarket Stakes at the Guineas meeting.

Now it’s ten and a half furlongs, a trip more commensurate with The Lion In Winter’s pedigree. He is by Sea The Stars, unbeaten champion and Derby winner in 2009 from a staying female family, with the broodmare sire Lope De Vega also a good stamina influence. I can’t see why they are questioning his stamina – but every year of course they do!

He too was a sales buy, from Goffs Orby Book 1 in September 2023. The only surprise apart from his having ability, is that he cost a relatively modest €375,000. Some may say, a cup of tea. This game gets you thinking that way sometimes.

To list the Derby bit-part players for Aidan – a wise enough policy granted the wins within the past ten years of 40/1 shot Wings Of Eagles and Serpentine, 25/1 in the “Covid” Derby. I wonder whether Boris Johnson ought to have sponsored it. Serpentine was sold to Australia after a dull end to his Ballydoyle career and has run 16 times there for one win. His last run on January 1, was one of his worst, 14th of 15 in a Group 2 handicap. Not all the Williams acquisitions turn to gold.

Delacroix, impressive in an admittedly thin Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Group 3 over ten furlongs at Leopardstown is sure to be in the Epsom line-up. The race has had several titles over the years, but the finest of them was when Golden Fleece beat Assert in the 1982 edition before Golden Fleece won the Derby so stylishly and Assert the French and Irish Derbys.

Both carried the Robert Sangster colours, Golden Fleece trained by Vincent O’Brien and Assert by his son David.

I had a particular interest in that race as fourth was Duke Of Dollis, who had the unfortunate task of taking the pair on twice for two places, previously when third in the Ballysax Stakes.

He ended up coming over to the UK and, trained by David Elsworth, turned up in a seller at Windsor. In those days it wasn’t regarded as de rigeur to claim horses, so I sent my deputy Adrian Hunt to do the dirty work.

Elsie wasn’t delighted but to his credit Adrian was always one to keep things close to his chest – unlike me! Sent to Roddy Armytage, Marcus’s father and a very good trainer, he recorded a hat-trick over hurdles for a team of very nice people who we managed to put together as a syndicate.

- TS

Ad Hoc Almanac Race Preview

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It's Friday, there's lot of racing - much of it high quality - and so why not do a race preview, or three?

In the video below, I've tried to showcase a few of the more accessible components of Geegeez Gold and Lite, as well as throwing in a couple of the less well-trodden areas of what we have.

As ever with such videos, the main point is to showcase what's inside Geegeez racecards rather than to pick winners. Of course, I hope to hit one of those, too!

Before watching the video, a quick polite reminder that I'll be taking the Flat Track Almanac link down on Sunday so time is running out. You need to be premium (Gold or Lite) subscriber to see the Almanac download link on your My Geegeez page, and you can take a 30 day trial for £1 here.

 

 

Good luck

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1