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This affects all of us

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This affects you. And me.

It affects all of us, either directly or indirectly. So we need to take action.

At this stage, the action is very small but will make a difference.

I am talking about the impact of affordability checks on the sport of horseracing. And specifically about a petition that needs your support if you love racing and want to see it continue largely as you know it.

In the rest of this message, I'll explain my thoughts on the subject in more detail; but if you're in a hurry, please take (literally) 30 seconds to add your name to the 71,180 and rising who have already signed.

At 100,000 names, the petition must be considered for debate in Parliament. We need as many names as possible so that it is discussed in Parliament.

Here's the link - please do add your voice. As I outline below, I believe we're at a crossroads, not just for racing, but for freedom of choice in this country.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/649894

As promised, a little more detail on my own views regarding the situation.

How we got here is a bad look

Racing has, for a long time now, had a reliance - arguably an over-reliance - on bookmakers as its primary funding model. Bookmakers pay a levy (tax) on profits, and they also make media rights payments for broadcasting race video and audio both in shops and online. Of course, those profits come from punters enjoying their racing but losing money; and the media rights payments are for race streams so that punters can watch the action. That's (kind of) fair enough.

But we've seen in the recent past racing get behind much less defensible projects such as the retention of large stakes on Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) in betting shops. Again, racing was deriving a profit share from these machines and, as a consequence of this really poor strategic decision, irrevocably conjoined betting with skill to pure luck gambling in the eyes of many with political clout.

The fact is, it matters where the money that funds racing comes from. It matters that punters get to enjoy their recreational spend and, in my view, it matters that there is a chance to win; with FOBTs the only chance is to lose between 3% and 10% over time. By lobbying so vigorously for the maintenance of the huge 'per play' stakes, racing's parliamentary advocates implied that there is no difference between casino games and betting on horses. This, obviously and crucially, is wrong. There is a massive difference. It is the difference between certain loser and potential winner; between self-defeat and aspiration. To make those two poles one was a crushing misjudgement; moreover, they fooled nobody in government which voted overwhelmingly for the reduction in FOBT stakes which came into being in April 2019. Clearly, that hardly enhanced the reputation of the sport in the corridors of the decision-makers.

Alongside this borderline dereliction of duty was the unequivocal dereliction of duty of both the bookmaking industry and the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC), the latter an entity established to oversee the former. Prior to the arrival of Sarah Harrison to the Commission in late 2015, and pretty much since her unfortunate and untimely departure in early 2018, we've seen a painfully ineffectual regulator. Before Harrison's arrival, bookmakers failed routinely to undertake necessary checks on high staking gamblers. Indeed, they actively encouraged such play with VIP accounts, tickets to football, boxes at the races and so on. Often without ever making any enquiries as to source of funds or affordability. And the Commission palpably failed to police the situation.

During Sarah Harrison's tenure, heavy fines were meted out to a vast array of bookmakers for such failings. There was barely a single operator that wasn't guilty to some degree of neglecting to safeguard punters in the quest for profit.

But the real legacy of a decade, maybe more, of reckless abuse by operators, and an all gums and no teeth regulator, is a lasting distrust of both. What we are now seeing is a huge over-correction by UKGC under the wobbly (some might say desperate) stewardship of Andrew Rhodes, electing to burden the consumer with the failings of itself and the industry it purports to regulate.

Now we're here, everyone is on the back foot

So that's something of how we got to here, a landscape where everyone is on the back foot. As the betting industry has, like everything else, pivoted from offline to online, we've gone from almost zero regulatory oversight to the very real threat of choking nannyism.

A large factor in this is that the UK Gambling Commission is fighting its own existential battle, with many across the political spectrum calling for its winding up and for an ombudsman to be introduced in its place. This is a shame but reflects a catalogue of serious and ongoing failings. Perhaps UKGC perceive their best route back to vague respectability to be a belts, braces and bicycle clips measure like affordability checks; if they do, that in itself demonstrates they are not fit for purpose.

UKGC has undertaken not one but two requests for feedback from the betting public in recent years. They have been inundated with a record number of responses, the vast majority of which are understood to have been for a retention of the status quo. The Commission have so far refused to share the responses in spite of 'freedom of information' requests, and have stated they will not release any such information until after a decision has been made on affordability checks. In a court of law, this might be considered to be withholding evidence. Of course, I'm not a lawyer - very, very far from it - so let's consider this no more than conjecture on my part. There is (a) smoke(screen) here, though, regardless of whether there's any underlying fire.

One other key element is that racing, and betting operators, have long since resisted any move to counter restrictions on betting accounts. These prevent winning punters from getting a bet of more than a few pence on which, after a certain liability (say, £1000) seems reasonable - they are businesses, after all - but prior to that point restrictions are at best against the spirit of fair play. Worse, many bettors are finding their losing accounts restricted! And most trading floor veterans would agree that the algorithms making these wonky calls are too defensive. Bizarre.

So, when those self-same operators, and the racing industry, come out now arguing that affordability checks will lead to bettors going to the black market, they are conveniently ignoring that that has been happening for some considerable time as a result of account restrictions. Even racing cannot have its cake and eat it.

Thus, the current clamour for a 'right to bet' is actually a call for a 'right to lose', which almost amounts to the same thing for many bettors but removes those crucial elements of aspiration and skill play.

Let's helicopter up

That's so much bluster about the parish of racing and betting, but let's zoom out a bit because there's more in play here.

Geegeez.co.uk has always advocated for accountability in its editorial, which is why we provide information - data, racecards, reports - and not tips. We treat our readers and subscribers as grown ups and we have an expectation that they behave as such. So there's no blame here: you make a bet and it loses, it's on you. Cool? Good.

That comes from a core personal belief that, for good or bad, we own what we do. When it turns out well, yay us; when it's bad, regroup and do it differently next time. But we own it. That's only common sense, isn't it?

Governments, especially Conservative ones (though party politics are irrelevant here), should allow grown ups to be grown ups notwithstanding that a small minority will be unable to do that. The upshot is that proportional checks and balances are sensible and necessary. Proportional being the operative word.

We're currently witnessing the threat of sweeping disproportionality (affordability checks) around what has become a political hot potato; and racing's previous forays into Westminster have lost it many friends. Recent attempts at rebuilding bridges seem to have made some progress, thankfully; how much we'll discover when the announcements are made regarding the detail of the forthcoming gambling legislation.

In my opinion, governments should, as far as possible, be 'laissez faire' with consenting adults' rights to spend their money as they wish. I don't want to be told what to do with my dough, and I'd guess you don't either. The current proposals are a serious encroachment on that fundamental civil liberty so, while I find it somewhere between sad and tragic at how we've ended up here, we need to stand up for more than just a right to bet/lose/win; we actually need to tell government to mind its own beeswax a bit and let us be.

Signing this petition will help to ensure that Westminster and the UKGC hears what ordinary punters like you and me think of their draconian proposals; and it will also, I hope, offer pause for thought about the role, and scope, of government intervention in the legal behaviours of UK citizens. We do not need to be nannied, and the tail should not wag the dog.

Here's the petition link again - please do sign it. (It'll take 30 seconds to sign, and then you'll need to click a link in an email they'll send you to verify yours is a real email address).

Please also encourage anyone else you know who loves racing to add their voice to this genuinely important statement. Now is not a time to assume others will do this for us. Your small action here will count. Thank you.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/649894

Matt

Monday Musings: They Did It!

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So Auguste Rodin, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore did it, writes Tony Stafford. At the forefront of the Irish stable and its Coolmore ownership team’s £2.7 million return from their trip to Santa Anita, the dual Derby winner emerged as a true champion, not least because of the courage of his trainer.

When the son of Deep Impact trailed home a distant last in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot following his odds-on success at the Curragh, the knives were out.

The Derby form is rubbish they said – “when isn’t it?”, you might ask – and even his win dropped to ten furlongs for the Irish Champion Stakes still had its detractors.

But now, fully justifying (more of that word later) the decision to skip Ascot’s Champion Stakes day and the almost certain heavy ground – I sincerely believe the authorities need to do something about that – he came onto fast turf at Santa Anita and showed the sort of instant acceleration that has impressed the Ballydoyle cognoscenti from day one.

As ever with Aidan, the back-up riders are just as vital. Didn’t Padraig Beggy in 2017 and, three years later, Emmet McNamara emerge from the Chorus Line on the home gallops to win the Derby? They partnered back-up horses, Wings Of Eagles (Beggy) and Serpentine for McNamara, only to disappear from view pretty much thereafter, left with just their memories of that incredible career-garnishing achievement.

There was a bit of a Beggy/McNamara element to this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but it wasn’t that Aidan picked from the 70 or so riders that normally partner first and second lots of the incredibly talented team back home.

This time he “borrowed” a young jockey that has quickly got to near the top of the Irish riding tree, from son Joseph. Dylan Browne McMonagle – still only 20 – has ridden 59 winners in Ireland this year from 539 rides, putting him third only behind champion Colin Keane and Billy Lee.

In a year made difficult for Aidan by the long-term injury early in the year sustained by Wayne Lordan, you might have thought the master of Ballydoyle would have cast his net a little wider. From his 105 domestic wins, Ryan Moore has travelled over for 52 from 123 at 42% and ultra-reliable Seamie Heffernan has 32 from 150 at a more than handy 21%. With Wayne eight from 54 in the spring, there’s just 13 to go round. Surely Dylan would have picked up the pieces. He did, one win from nine rides.

His employment by O’Brien in the UK has been even more sparing, just a single ride on Champions Day at Ascot on Broome, and there he was again on Saturday on the same quirky old veteran apparently making up the numbers in the deep Turf field.

At Ascot, over what has become more his distance in the near two-mile Stayers Championship race, he faded to finish sixth of eight. His perceived role at Santa Anita was to help make the running and ensure a decent pace for the favourite. In the end, Dylan’s knowledge of the horse gained from Ascot did not help at the start as the seven-year-old dwelt as the rest of the field hurried on their way.

Maybe it was good fortune, but McMonagle didn’t rest on his laurels, trying to get to the front and Broome was prominent until understandably beginning to weaken as the last turn approached. Inevitably he fell into the laps of still travelling rivals and certainly Frankie Dettori on King Of Steel and Jim Crowley on Mostahdaf took a rapid diversion to the outside to avoid him.

The trigger effect was a nice gap on the inside. If ever you needed to know how much distance a horse can lose in the US when going wide on the bend this was evident as without doing too much, Ryan, having been some way back in seventh or eighth, was able to enter the straight just behind the lead.

The rail runner route was never more famously displayed than by Calvin Borel in his successive Kentucky Derby wins in 2009/2010, and when it works it looks very clever. Ryan confessed there was an element of good fortune in it but, again, to have a horse talented enough to accept the invitation is rare.

Clearly, Aidan O’Brien doesn’t need to employ a rider regularly to appreciate his talent and here we come to the day before when I’m sure McMonagle must have feared the worst when the local veterinary panel deemed River Tiber unfit to run in Friday’s Juvenile Turf race.

O’Brien took it on the chin in a little more restrained manner than Jessica Harrington, there with an owner who had nothing else to show for their trip. Aidan, of course, had back-up once more but, with Ryan Moore’s first pick an absentee, Frankie Dettori was booked for second string Unquestionable with McMonagle on longshot Mountain Bear.

Although only a winner of a maiden race previously, Unquestionable made plenty of friends with his second, a length behind Richard Hannon-trained Rosellion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting. Ryan promptly pulled rank leaving Dettori without a mount, unless…

Well, “unless” didn’t happen, and while Ryan came the inside route to get by the Americans in the straight while Dylan went widest of all, collecting with a flying finish the not inconsiderable runner-up prize of £141k as the trainer supplied the one-two.

If the Coolmore partners didn’t have enough pockets to cram the £2.7 million (less deductions!) into by 24 hours later, I’m sure Joseph’s protégé would have been planning what he might be doing with what must have been an unexpected windfall.

European horses once again made the Americans look ordinary in most of the turf races, with Mick Appleby’s Big Evs more than living up to his sprinting prowess back home by giving the home speedsters a lesson in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. If Godolphin had a quietish time of it, the identity of Big Evs’ sire, their first-season sensation Blue Point, would have kept them smiling wherever Sheikh Mo and co were last weekend.

While the two best male and female stars from the Ballydoyle academy were back home munching away unaware of their joint objectives in next year’s 2000 and 1000 Guineas, their paternal relatives, Just FYI in the Juvenile Fillies’ and Hard To Justify in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf which followed, were adding both lustre and the degree of versatility to their sire.

City Of Troy’s and Opera Singer’s return to action will be awaited with interest. I can tell you, if you are being impatient, the first weekend in May will come around quicker this time than any year previously. Then we can see if my exaggerated comments about City Of Troy are indeed Justified.

- TS

Monday Musings: The Rising Star of the Rising Sun

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Back in the spring, the racing world, both in Europe and the United States, was in a state of panic, writes Tony Stafford. The cause? The belief that horses raised and trained in Japan were becoming impossible to beat when they travel over to Dubai or indeed the United States for the Breeders’ Cup in the late autumn.

This fear was exemplified by the remarkable four-year-old colt Equinox, easy winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic over a mile and a half on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan last March. Soon in the lead he wasn’t remotely bothered to see off Ralph Beckett’s smart colt Westover, winner of last year’s Irish Derby and, more recently, runner-up to Ace Impact in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three weeks ago.

Equinox was given an official rating as the world’s best racehorse after that performance. Yesterday at Tokyo racecourse, he made his record six wins and two second places in just eight runs, taking his earnings above £10 million. Then again, prizemoney over there is pretty good.

Before Dubai, Equinox’s last win had been in the Japan Cup and that remains his immediate target even though he had been eligible both for the Breeders’ Cup meeting and the Arc. In between Dubai and yesterday, he raced only once, picking up a handy £1.4 million when a narrow winner at Hanshin.

Yesterday’s prize was similarly remunerative and while he had only a narrow margin to spare back in June, there was never a doubt in regular jockey Christophe Lemaire’s mind that he wouldn’t win. He was slowly away, which needed the jockey to alter planned tactics. Coming wide, he took the lead inside the last furlong, then comfortably held off the five-year-old mare Through Seven Seas.

Lemaire has a great relationship with many leading Japanese trainers, so it was no surprise, given his status as one of the top jockeys in France, that when she was aimed at this month’s Arc, he was booked for the ride. Through Seven Seas finished fourth, three lengths behind the winner and barely a length adrift of Westover.

Although that was an excellent run, it didn’t alter the fact that no Japanese-trained horse has ever won Europe’s autumn all-aged middle-distance championship.

The form lines suggest Equinox probably would have broken the duck for Japan had he not been reserved to clean up millions of Yen at home. The Japan Cup is expected to be at his mercy once more in a month’s time.

Equinox’s name on yesterday’s results jolted me into having a look at the Japanese representation in this week’s Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita and the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Saturday week. That left me with the strong conclusion that a fair degree of consultation goes on behind the scenes before overseas plans are confirmed, or should I say permitted?.

I made it that there are nine Japanese horses entered at this stage on Saturday’s card with only one on Friday. There is never more than two in one race. In the Melbourne Cup tomorrow week, there’s just a single Japanese entry,

I’ve noticed several mares are scheduled to take part while all the male horses are entires, with six-year-old Ushba Tesoro a prime contender for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Winner of his last five, that includes a comfortable success, coming from far back, over the Crisfords’ fellow six-year-old Algiers last March in the Dubai World Cup, a race normally a cinch for the American raiders.

He had a soft warm-up, collecting a puny 250 grand for a little exercising of his ageing limbs in a race in the summer, his one run since Dubai. With £7 million already in the bank, another £2.6 million wouldn’t come amiss before he goes off to stud. He’s Japanese-bred on both sides of his pedigree and as such will be in big demand when he does retire.

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup meeting in Keeneland didn’t seem to interest Japanese stables, with just one token unplaced runner on the entire two days of action. The previous year in Del Mar, though, two females were successful, Loves Only You in the Filly and Mare Turf and Marche Lorraine in the Distaff on dirt.

Both were five-year-olds and, interestingly, 50/1 shot Marche Lorraine was ridden by Oisin Murphy, who might not have had such a long-term association with Japan as Lemaire, but he has spent plenty of time there in recent years. Marche Lorraine, incidentally, is by Ushba Tesoro’s sire, Orfevre.

The Japanese horse whose chance I like best is Songline in the Mile on Saturday. Normally this five-year-old mare – yet another one – would be facing a formidable European contingent, but after Paddington’s defection, there’s just two Godolphin UK runners, one each from Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor, and the French filly Kelina. Clearly the Americans are reacting to the criticism of and danger of injury too on the dirt tracks that have been the foundation of the US sport for more than a century, targeting the increased number of turf opportunities.

The 2021 2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas has been in decent form this year but I have greater regard for this year’s 1000 heroine Mawj, trained by bin Suroor. She didn’t run between Newmarket in the spring and two weeks ago at Keeneland. Ridden there by Oisin, continuing the association cemented in the season’s first classic, he partnered the filly for a comfortable success in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup.

Songline, though, another multi-million earner, has had an excellent season at home, winning two late spring Grade 1’s in Tokyo before returning from her break with an unlucky nose second also at Tokyo three weeks ago. This is one race where there are two Japanese entries; the other, Win Carnation, was fifth in that Tokyo race, starting 18/1 compared with Songline’s SP of even money.

Charlie Appleby does well at the Breeders’ Cup, especially with his juveniles, and he was delighted when front-running Ancient Wisdom stayed on well to win the Kameko Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday. The significance for Charlie was that it was a first Group 1 winner for the stable since May, and at least it will send him across the water with renewed optimism.

Ancient Wisdom’s previous run had resulted in a stylish, also front-running, win in a Group 3 at Newmarket on Dewhurst Stakes Day. The brave course for next spring would be to tackle City Of Troy, the unquestioned juvenile champion of 2023. As they say, someone needs to do it.

The runner-up on Saturday at Doncaster was the David Menuisier colt Devil’s Point, a wonderful result for always-enthusiastic owner Clive Washbourn. The French-born trainer could hardly have gone into the race in better form, having won two stakes races the day before at Chantilly and another double five days earlier at Saint-Cloud, including the Group 1 Criterium International with Sunday. Three of the four winners were two-year-olds.

The main Aidan O’Brien hope on the Santa Anita card has to be dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin who erased the memory of a sub-standard run at Ascot in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with a smart win in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Fourth that day was King Of Steel, the Epsom runner-up who won for Frankie Dettori in the Champion Stakes at Ascot a couple of weeks ago.

Roger Varian also has the Amo Racing three-year-old entered for the Classic on dirt on Saturday, but I assume he takes on his two-time nemesis, although he did finish third when Auguste was tailed off in the King George behind Hukum. There’s a lot at stake for both these smart horses, their owners and trainers this weekend.

- TS

Poor Value Favourites in NH Racing

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I wonder, how many readers back favourites from time to time? Is there anyone reading this who only bets on favourites? It certainly would be interesting to know, writes Dave Renham. Maybe you'll share your answer in the comments below this article. I have two reasons for starting with those questions: firstly, I am genuinely interested to know; and, secondly, this article is based around favourites.

I think it is fair to say that favourites have had a bit of a 'bad rap' in the last ten to twenty years, mainly due to punters being bombarded, correctly in the main, with the concept of value. Thirty or forty years ago I am guessing that most punters had less of an understanding of how to assess value prices. Their mindset would probably be more attuned to winners – if they picked enough winners, they would make money. Of course, we know that this is not the case. You can have 50% winners and still lose money; conversely, you can have 15% winners and make a good profit. I still smile to myself when any of my non-racing friends go to a race meeting and ring me up with the question, “Dave, can you pick me some winners please?”

My reply is always the same, “if you want to back winners then back the favourite – this will give you more winners in the long term”. I do clarify that by telling them that is not the right way to bet, but if they want ‘winners’ then my answer gives them the best chance of achieving that on the day in question. And for once a year punters, this is probably the smartest way to bet - trust to luck. But for those of us more regularly engaged with the puzzle, we need to show more discernment.

With the nights drawing in, many of us in the racing world are turning our attention away from the turf flat season and starting to think National Hunt, and the great meetings and races that will take place over the next six months. In this article, then, the focus will be on National Hunt racing and favourites. More specifically, I will be looking to highlight market leaders that the data suggest are showing as offering poor value. Data have been taken from the last six full calendar years of UK NH racing spanning 2017 to 2022, and I will be sharing the results for clear favourites only (excluding races with joint- or co-favourites).

So why look for a race with a poor value favourite? Well, it is not because I am suggesting laying such a horse, although that may be an option in some cases. Rather, it is to do with the fact that if the favourite offers poor value, then there must be value elsewhere in the race on another runner, or runners. Before I start looking for examples of poor value favourites, let me share the breakdown of win strike rate for favourites by year:

 

 

As the chart shows, the strike rates do not fluctuate too much, with a difference of only 2.7% between 2022 (the year with the highest SR%) and 2020 (the year with the lowest).

Here is the overall record of NH clear favourites over these six years:

 

Essentially this is not a bad starting point in terms of returns, with losses of just over 2½ pence in the £. Hence taking National Hunt favourites as a whole, in terms of betting to Betfair SP, they are not bad value. To give some context, the results for backing all fifth favourites would have lost you 7½ pence in the £, sixth favourites 12p in the £. Suddenly 2½p losses look quite good!

So, we have our benchmark figures here for favourites – strike rate of around 37.5%, losses around 2½p in the £, and an A/E index of 0.94. Let's now break this overall group into subsets.

 

Performance in NH Races by Age of favourite

The first area I want to look at is the age of the favourite in question. Below is a bar chart showing the win percentages for different ages of favourites. There is quite a clear pattern as you will see:

 

 

It should be noted that three- and four-year-old favourites make up only 10.6% of all NH favourites and hence I am more interested in the correlation between favourites aged five and older. As the graph indicates, favourites aged five have the best strike rate and, thereafter, that percentage gradually drops for subsequent age groups. Favourites aged ten and older are clearly the worst performing animals in terms of strike rate.

So, have we potentially found a group of favourites that are poor value? We need to see the overall figures for favourites aged ten or older to see if the drop in strike rate effects the bottom line:

 

 

As shown, being of that vintage does affect the bottom line, with losses of over 11 pence in the £. Also, the A/E index has dropped to 0.87 which is a secondary indicator of poorer value.

Interestingly, these older favourites have performed worse in chases than hurdles. Chases make up most of the races with older favourites and the chase stats read 247 wins from 807 runners (SR 30.6%) for losses of £146.28 (ROI -18.3%); A/E index 0.82.

While I was trawling through some of the data, I noticed a horse called Midnight Moss who was a ten-year-old last year (2022). He started favourite in his last three races of 2022 (all chases) with the following results:

 

Clearly punters were happy to keep giving this fella another chance, but in hindsight these races would have given us a good opportunity to look for value elsewhere. For the record, Midnight Moss has run once as an 11yo in 2023... and yes, you’ve guessed it, he started favourite and was beaten into second again.

 

Performance in NH Races of Favourites that were narrowly beaten last time out

The next group of favourites I want to look at is those runners which were just touched off last time out. I'm including horses that were either beaten by a nose, a short head, a head or a neck in their last race. Here are the figures for that subset of runners who started clear favourite next time out:

 

One would expect the strike rate to be decent, and it is, but the returns are very poor for these favourites. Losses of over 15p in the £ is extremely hefty considering the overall stats shared earlier. This looks to me a classic case of horses being overbet, the theory being that they ran so well last time that they have a very good chance of getting their head in front this time. And so, despite a decent enough win rate, their actual starting prices have averaged out to be much shorter than their true odds of winning.

Before moving on, if we focus on handicap races only then the results for these narrowly beaten last time out runners who start favourite get significantly worse. Horses that were beaten a neck or less in a handicap last time out, and who are racing in a handicap again as the clear favourite have produced the following results:

 

Losses of nearly 28p in the £ are quite shocking for this group of NH favourites.

 

Performance in NH Races of Favourites having their second career start

Horses having just their second run are still relative unknown quantities. Plenty of horses run well on their first start but fail to back it up, whereas others run poorly first time out and then improve out of all recognition next time. It makes sense therefore that horses that start favourite on their second career run may not be the best betting proposition. That was my theory at least; below is the evidence, the table showing favourites who have previously run just once:

 

The strike rate here is high, a fair bit above the average for all favourites; but returns are relatively poor – losses approaching 10p in the £. The 0.87 A/E figure is low also. As with horses that were narrowly beaten LTO, this again looks a case of a group of horses being overbet driving the prices below their true odds. It is also worth sharing that horses which won on debut lose a little bit more again when favourite next time (losses of just over 10p in the £).

Performance in NH Races of Heavy ground Favourites

To begin this section, here are the win strike rates for NH favourites in terms of going:

 

 

The figures are relatively even – the best strike rate has occurred when the going has been the firmer side of good. Having said that, this firmer going is relatively rare, making up just 3% of all NH races. In terms of races on heavy ground, clear favourites have also done well, winning slightly above the norm and losing backers just 2p for every £1 staked.

I am guessing most people will be thinking that previous heavy ground winners are a positive if racing again in such conditions especially if starting favourite (me included). However, this has not been the case as the stats show:

 

Losses are close to 10p in the £ for these past heavy ground winners.

On the other hand, clear favourites have fared far better on heavy ground if they are yet to have won a race on this going, as these figures clearly show:

 

Hence, the data for these heavy ground favourites seem clear-cut: be apprehensive of a previous heavy ground winner whereas don’t immediately rule out if not a previous heavy ground winner. What is most interesting, perhaps, is that the win rate of heavy ground win 'virgins' is also higher than those to have won in the deep mud previously.

 

Performance of Favourites in Handicap chases

Maiden Chasers

Finally, in terms of hard data, I want to explore certain favourites in handicap chases. Firstly, let us consider the performance of handicap chase favourites who had never previously won a race over these bigger obstacles. To qualify they must have raced at least once over fences in their career:

 

These losses are 7p in the £ above the average figure for all NH favourites, which means once again there should be value by ignoring the favourite and looking at the other runners in the race.

Let's further consider the subset of these handicap chase favourites who had not only failed to win a chase but in all previous chase runs had not been placed either:

 

Logic suggested to me that these runners might perform relatively poorly as regards favourites and the figures bear that out. Sometimes results turn out like you would expect them to!

*

This article has highlighted several cohorts of potentially poor value NH favourites based on the last six calendar years of UK jump racing. Now, as I always say, articles like this are reporting on the past; there are no guarantees that the figures shared will be replicated in the future. However, most of the sample sizes are decent and the angles are underpinned by credible logic, which gives much more credence to figures. If I was sharing favourite results with only 50 qualifying runners, or where I was unable to explain the results, then it would be right to be sceptical.

Before wrapping up there are a couple of other ideas I have had in regard to finding potentially poor value favourites and both involve using Geegeez tools. The first is looking for NH favourites who display a negative run style. Imagining a two mile handicap chase at Hexham as an example, if we look at the run style figures going back to 2016 (8+ runners) in the Pace Analyser tool, we see the following:

 

 

Clearly this course and distance favours front runners/prominent racers. If the favourite happened to be a habitual hold up horse, then this may be an opportunity where the value lies elsewhere. Using Query Tool, here are the results for this group of favourites, by run style (4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 mid-div, 1 held up). There was just one winner from the twelve clear favourites to race in the latter part of the field in these races, whereas those favourites on the lead or prominent won ten from 22 for a better than 22 point profit (ROI 100%) at SP.

 

 

The second idea involves using the Instant Expert tab. The idea behind this one is to look for favourites that do not have many ‘greens’ within the traffic light ranking system. Green data is positive, and here is a recent example where the traffic light system seemed to highlight a poor value favourite. The race in question was the 3:33 at Wetherby on 18th October 2023. Here is a screenshot of the Instant Expert screen for that contest:

 

The favourite was Deyrann De Carjac, but looking along his row, we can see no greens, three reds and two ambers. Now, in this case the figures are looking at win percentages across each horses’ entire career. Whether this is the optimum setting, I'm not sure. You could look at placed percentages instead, or cut the data to the last two years, race code to chase, select handicaps only etc. However, based on the long-term win percentages for the runners in this race, Deyrann De Carjac looked a poor value favourite. Of the remaining runners Mackenberg priced at 15/2 with four greens was arguably offering some value.

Even looking at handicap chase form in the last two years only, Deyrann De Carjac was unappealing, and Mackenberg well suited to conditions:

 

The result of race was:

 

As we can see, Deyrann De Carjac was last of the five finishers. Also, for eagle-eyed readers you may have noticed that he was a ten-year-old racing in a chase – a poor value favourite stat I shared earlier. Mackenberg didn’t win to give the ‘dream’ result but ran well to finish second beaten a short head.

I appreciate this is just one example and this is a very tricky one for which to collect historical data. However, as I said before, there is plenty of logic to suggest it ought pay off in the long term: these horses are showing themselves to be either unsuited or unproven against today's conditions and they're being sent off favourite. That doesn't appeal to me!

I hope you have found this article interesting and also illuminating. If you have any ideas to test for poor value favourites, please drop them in the comments.

- DR

Monday Musings: Farewell with a flourish

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They were all at Ascot on Saturday for Frankie Day part two, 27 years after the seven out of seven, writes Tony Stafford. But in many ways his double there, including the Champion Stakes on King of Steel, was even more compelling, after his cumulative intervening effect on the sport of horse racing. It’s a business too, and these days the financial aspect has become even more crucial at all levels.

Later, in the evening, many of the highest in the land of horse racing had transferred the 30 miles east to London’s Mayfair and were in attendance as Frankie Dettori joined Ronan Keating on stage in a duet at Grosvenor House. According to one friend – my recurring ailment precluded me from either engagement – he didn’t do a bad job of it either.

https://youtu.be/caWQViU6FSs?si=r_APIh1S_t4bc2W7

Frankie certainly knows how to maximise his marketability. At £15k for a top table for ten and 10 grand for one of the remaining of 70-odd in the cheap (sic) seats, it was a high-profile and highly remunerative affair for the jockey, and the hotel; presumably also for Mr Keating and the band, and event organisers Esmond Wilson and James Wintle, son of my late, great friend Dave Wintle, who would have loved to have been there.

There were some who had questioned his idea of a lucrative “retirement” extravaganza only days after the revelation that he would be riding on through the winter in Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, but I thought that was already well documented. Apparently not, and sometimes things you had heard as early as York in August to be fact, hadn’t filtered through to the general public.

My on-the-spot informant, Shaun Ellery, had also been a close friend of Dave Wintle’s and a fair few of the older attendees on Saturday evening might well have taken the trek west to visit Shaun’s Cardiff spot, The Bank Café Bar, in the 1990’s and 2000’s.

Frankie of course is from the next generation, but he’s now in his early 50’s with no sign of slowing down in his life or of being diminished in his ability in the saddle.

If his win in the Champion Stakes, when Man Of Steel came through late to catch Via Sistina on a day when all the other races were won from the front, seemed pre-ordained, it also probably owed a little to good fortune, a recurring theme through his career.

Just as Oisin Murphy sent the comfortably-travelling Via Sistina – also coming from the rear – into the lead on the outside at the furlong pole, he dropped his whip. From there the filly seemed to be in quicksand – it was testing ground anyway – hanging right. Frankie spotted the weakness and pounced.

It made a massive difference in prestige terms to owner Kia Joorabchian of Amo Racing, and trainer Rogar Varian, as well as the jockey and stable staff. The winner’s prize of £737,000 would probably not have been too far removed from the entire amount generated by the Grosvenor House bash, one way or another.

But here comes a supreme irony. If the whip episode hadn’t happened, then the first prize rather than £279k for second, might well have gone to Mrs R G Hillen, owner of Via Sistina. Coincidentally, Mrs Becky Hillen, wife of bloodstock agent Steve Hillen, is none other than James Wintle’s sister!

The first prize would have been nice, of course, but Via Sistina, bought originally for 5,000gns at the 2019 December yearling sales by Steve Hillen, must rank as one of the bargains of the century. The 279 grand for Saturday’s supreme effort – and a magnificent training achievement for George Boughey – has taken her career earnings to £674,000 from 13 races, with five wins and as many places.

Originally with Joe Tuite, who retired from training after the filly’s initial unsuccessful run last year, she won two of seven races for him – I wonder what Joe’s thinking now? Since switching to Boughey, she has never been out of the first three, winning the Pretty Polly at Leopardstown (Group1) and two more races, at Group 2 and Group 3 respectively.

She goes to the December sales and in these days of extravagant demand for hard-running fillies and mares, another massive payday can be anticipated.

I mentioned above the financial difficulties for owners in these days of inflation, high fuel costs for horse transportation and administration fees. Even a trainer at the top like William Haggas must be aware of costs. I recall him and Richard Hannon both being concerned early this year about not having full stables.

In William’s case it was because he didn’t have enough highly-skilled staff at the time to deal with more horses than he felt was viable. Now he tells me this week that when it came to deciding whether to sell at the Horses In Training sale, he needed to be aware of the potential costs for an owner balanced by whether the horse in question was worth retaining.

He said that if he was unsure about an unraced horse winning even a small race, balanced by the amount it would cost to achieve it, he would probably recommend taking up the sale option. Fortunately, for William’s owners, there is a demand for horses from his yard, both from smaller stables in the UK and overseas buyers.

The Horses in Training sale has always been one of my favourite weeks of the season and not least because of the days when I used to loiter on the final day for the drafts of Cheveley Park Stud and the Aga Khan’s lesser individuals to go through the ring.

Sometimes, I would pick up unsold lots privately for 500 quid from Cheveley Park - rather than the stud take them home – or even for nothing in the case of the Aga Khan “boucher” (butcher) horses, as the owner described them to me. He would hardly have wanted to send them back to France to end up on a meat counter.

I recall I did have to cough up £500 for Karaylar from the Aga Khan, but he proved a great buy, unlike most of the others! He became one of David Batey’s first 25 winners, all preserved for history in a video produced for the owner. All bar the last had been sourced by me and trained by Wilf Storey.

Karaylar’s four winning siblings were all sprinters and never tried jumping. Karaylar wasn’t quick, but won twice at Sedgefield, including a John Wade sponsored selling handicap hurdle final over 2m5f and worth £7,000 to the winner, a nice pot in 1996. Wilf truly was (and still is!) a magician.

Group 1 winning trainer Dylan Cunha is hoping to achieve a similar level in the UK as at home in South Africa. When he settles down after Saturday’s dual ending of England’s hopes in two World Cups (cricket and rugby) he will continue moving his string of horses the few hundred yards down the road to his new base in William Jarvis’s yard, Phantom House’s long-time incumbent retiring at the end of the season.

In a year when Tattersalls October Yearling Book 1 sale averaged almost a quarter of a million pounds per horse, and the overall four books still averaged 100 grand despite a falloff in parts of Books 3 and 4, Cunha did some serious shopping.

“We just happened to be there when everyone seemed to have disappeared. We got a nice bunch, in terms of the individuals and the prices we paid that day. Overall, we managed to get 19 at the various sales, and I’m delighted with that.”

Here’s a trainer going places.

- TS

Steamers and Drifters: Part 3

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I was originally not going to do a ‘part 3’, but in the comments a reader asked about early morning odds and if there was any data available in connection with price movement, writes Dave Renham. As that was data I could access, I thought I would do some digging and share my findings. So here goes...

As in the previous two pieces I am focusing on flat and all weather racing in the UK spanning five years from 2018 to 2022. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

If you missed those articles, you can read the overview one here, and the second part here.

 

Change from Early Odds to Starting Price

To begin with I want to look at early morning odds versus opening show odds. Later on, I will be comparing some of this early odds data with SP. As I alluded to in parts one and two the opening show tends to be around ten minutes before the start of the race. Early morning odds tend to be available around 9am. Indeed, these days most bookmakers price up the night before. Alas, I do not have data for this.

Below is a graphic comparing early morning odds to opening show where I am looking at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same price, or lengthen in price:

 

 

As we can see, nearly 53% of all horses drift / lengthen in price, compared with 36.4% who shorten. Roughly one in nine runners see their price stay the same. These figures follow the pattern of previous research but the differential between drifters and shorteners is much bigger.

These data show us that Early Morning Odds are essentially poor value. If your only option is to bet ‘early’ then I would urge you to use a bookmaker that offers BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). If you can’t, then I would suggest you do not make the wager at early prices. Regularly ‘taking’ Early Odds will probably lose money for over 95% of punters.

When comparing handicaps with non-handicaps the percentages splits are virtually identical (in handicaps 52.7% of horses drift, in non-handicaps it is 52.4%.) so the market behaves in a very similar way from Early Odds to Opening Show regardless of race type.

 

Effect of Early Odds price movement on Strike Rate and Profitability

Now I want to look at the effect price movement from Early Odds to Opening Show has on strike rate and profit/loss. In terms of profit/loss I am going to calculate returns to Betfair Starting Price. I have split the runners like I did earlier into three groups – horses that shorten in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’, those that stay the same price, and those that lengthen in price.

 

 

There is the same win percentage pattern here that we saw when looking at Opening Odds versus SP in the previous articles: horses that shorten in price have comfortably the best strike rate. In fact, those that shorten are almost twice as likely to win as those horses that drift. In terms of returns to Betfair Starting Price, horses that shortened in price edged it; but there is less than 1% (1p in the £) between the three groups.

So, we have a very even looking starting point in terms of returns / value. Let's push on...

 

Horses that lengthened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

I want to look in more detail at horses that either drifted in price from Early Odds to Opening Show Odds or went the other way, i.e. shortened in price. Drifters first. I want to know what percentage of these horses continued to drift in price from Opening Show to SP, having already drifted from the morning price to the first one available on the show ten minutes or so before the 'off'. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we can see, 42.1% of horses that lengthened in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’ continued to drift out in price. So, there is more chance that the drift will continue compared with the other two scenarios. Roughly a third of these horses shortened, while a quarter remained the same price.

Below are the strike rates and returns for this cohort:

 

 

Don’t be fooled by thinking the best value has been with the horses that initially lengthened in price and then stayed the same odds. These figures include BSP winners at prices of 1000.0, 538.81, 403.45 and 358.50. Taking those out the ROI was around -6%.

 

Horses that have shortened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

A look at the converse group next, those shortening from the morning to opening show, to give us a comparison. Firstly, a look at what happened between Opening Show and SP in terms of percentage splits:

 

 

Horses that shorten from Early Odds to Opening Show are still more likely to subsequently drift than to continue to shorten. However, the percentages for the horses that shortened and those that drifted are the closest they have been in any of the comparisons made, either in this article or the previous two – there is less than a 5% differential between the groups.

Strike rates and returns for these runners are below:

 

 

The strike rates are much higher in this table than the previous one and it seems that horses that shorten initially and then drift on course are slightly better value than the rest. This time the figures for the ‘best’ group are not skewed by huge 300.0 plus BSP winners.

 

Early priced favourites

This is a new departure in terms of what I have looked at previously but I thought it would be interesting to see what happened to horses that were initially favourite on the 'morning line'. I have focused on those horses that were solely at the head of the betting market (no joint or co-favourites) in the morning. Firstly, a look at how all such runners fared:

 

 

The strike rate exceeds 30% which suggests most of the horses remained as favourite. Losses are very modest at just over 2p in the £. If we split these by race type, we get the following:

 

 

Horses that were clear favourite in non-handicaps as the markets opened in the morning have got close to breaking even, which is eye-catching. The difference in strike rate is to be expected, but I had expected that the returns would be very close to the same.

Earlier I suggested that most of the early favourites are likely to have remained favourite at the off (SP) – let's see if that assertion was correct:

 

 

As expected, the figures back up the hypothesis. Nearly two thirds of these runners remained clear favourite at the start of the race and 86.7% of them were either clear favourite, joint favourite or 2nd favourite.

What was even more interesting, though, is what I discovered when I looked at the profit/loss figures in terms of their final market position. Horses that ended up outside the top two in the betting (eg. 3rd fav+ at SP) edged into profit. The strike rate was down as you would expect at 13.1%, (530 wins from 3804 runners, around one winner in eight), but a miniscule profit of £5.41 (ROI +0.1%) was achieved. We have seen in the first two articles that drifters have tended to offer more value – here is another case in point, albeit not a bankable one in isolation.

 

Trainers – Early Odds v SP

To finish off this piece I want to look at some raw trainer data, comparing their respective runners' Early Odds to SP. I have chosen 45 trainers and compared win strike rates and A/E indices for their runners within the three groups: horses that shortened from morning odds to SP, horses that stayed the same price in that time frame, and horses that drifted from morning odds to SP. I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

 

 

As one would expect, most trainers have a significant difference in strike rate when comparing drifters to horses that shorten in price. Stuart Williams for example has a three times better strike rate with his horses that shorten in price compared to his drifters (19.01 v 6.28). Indeed, his runners that have shortened in price have made a small profit of around 4p in the £.

Julie Camacho seems to be a trainer to note if her runners shorten from early odds to SP. She has had 451 runners that have contracted in price, of which 86 have won, producing a healthy £99.59 profit to BSP. This equates to impressive returns of 22p in the £.

In terms of Early Odds to SP drifters, Brian Ellison runners that fit that profile look worth avoiding: 44 wins from 838 qualifiers showing hefty losses of £341.35 (ROI -40.7%). Likewise, Ed Dunlop has a similarly poor record with drifters thanks to only 77 wins from 1195 (SR 6.4%) for a loss to BSP of £440.90 (ROI -36.9%).

A few trainers have made profits with their drifters, but many have been helped by the occasional huge priced BSP winner. One trainer who has been less reliant on big-priced winners has been Charles Hills. He has saddled 149 winners from 1240 drifters turning a profit of £277.50 (ROI +22.4%). This record actually improves if you ignore his big-priced runners (BSP 40.0 or higher) – a £433.44 profit returning over 42p in the £. I did check the data for his 2023 drifters, and he has made a decent profit this year so far, too. Very interesting!

 

*

 

So, there we have it. The data collection for these three market movement articles has taken a while, but I hope Geegeez readers are able to take plenty from it. Perhaps the main message is, more horses will drift than shorten be it comparing Early Odds to SP or Opening Show to SP. So, if you can, bet late or bet Betfair SP. Also, when viewing the overall findings there is more value in drifters. This was highlighted especially in the second article where I looked at more significant (i.e. bigger) price movements.

From a trainer perspective, each trainer will have slightly different patterns of price movement, but the trainer tables in articles one and three will assist in that regard.

Good luck.

- DR

Monday Musings: Troy Worth Weight in Gold

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There was a space next to me for Aidan O’Brien to slide into as we had a late lunch on Saturday, delayed by the excitements we’d just seen on the track, writes Tony Stafford. To my observation that I’d written that City Of Troy was the best two-year-old I’d ever seen, performance-wise, after the Superlative Stakes back in July, Aidan simply said: “He is”, adding, “I know you did, I read that in your column again last week”.

Ever generous with his comments, I’m sure ITV viewers would have heard the same sentiment a little earlier, but like many other people I was at the time too carried up in the euphoria of seeing a performance so rare in a championship race. Even some of the great horses have made hard work of winning the Dewhurst Stakes on their way to 2000 Guineas or Derby triumph the following year.

Frankel comes immediately to mind as one that didn’t struggle, having comfortably beaten O’Brien’s Roderic O’Connor (Irish 2000 Guineas winner the following May) in his Dewhurst on his fourth start of a 14-race unbeaten career. Two other Group 1 winners were his victims in his first three two-year-old appearances.

Nathaniel (two King Georges) gave him a tussle on debut on Newmarket’s July Course while O’Brien’s Treasure Beach (Irish Derby) was only third when they met in the Royal Lodge immediately before the Dewhurst. These were notable early scalps for the colt that brought such lustre to the end of Sir Henry Cecil’s epic career, and to Prince Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms.

That Frankel is the yardstick to which City Of Troy has aspiration to be measured was immediately and inevitably emphasised as Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith called Saturday’s winner “our Frankel”. If Aidan and Ryan Moore are to be believed, he is.

They waited for Ryan to report back after finishing second in the opener behind one of two smart Charlie Appleby winning juveniles on the day before taking the final fateful step to run. Ryan said, confounding the relatively quick time, which he explained was due to the strong following wind, that the ground was deep and holding.

A quick consultation between trainer and Messrs Tabor and Smith resulted in the decision to let him take his chance. As Michael said: “He can only lose”, a throwback to the 2000 Guineas debacle for subsequent dual Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner Auguste Rodin. It isn’t the races you lose that count, but those you win. Now they know he can handle deep ground.

Of course, I wasn’t by any means the only media observer of the July humbling of subsequent Vintage Stakes winner Haatem to express extravagant comments. On Racing TV, Nick Luck’s first words as Ryan pulled up the son of US Triple Crown winner and Coolmore stallion Justify were: “Find me a better two-year-old and I don’t think you will. Not this year anyway.”

On his programme on the channel yesterday morning, he had Hughie Morrison, Racing Post’s Lee Mottershead, and recently retired jockey Louis Steward, and all three agreed with the presenter that here was a horse out of the ordinary.

Luck confessed that as the year went on and various other options rather than the conventional UK Classic format were being mentioned, with the Middle Park and Kentucky Derby as tentative plans, and I quote, “I cashed in my Guineas and Derby bets”. Silly Nick!

Back to Aidan, and when you think that he and the Coolmore partners have won a joint-record eight Dewhurst Stakes, six of them since 2013, for him to consider City Of Troy unquestionably the best, that is some recommendation indeed.

As we munched away, he explained, “We’ve never been able to get him tired and that hasn’t ever been the case with any of our horses before him”. To go back and watch the last furlong of his three runs – on debut at the Curragh challenged in the form the furlong pole but pushed out before going away for a comfortable victory; on the July Course exploding clear of decent opposition; and now, when asked, again surging away going up to the line, without ever seeing a hint of interruption in his perfect stride pattern in any of them.

 

Sectional times by furlong for the Dewhurst Stakes field, the winner accelerating impressively away on soft ground

 

It’s one thing to do it on fast summer going, quite another to replicate it on deep ground, but as he sailed along happily in front, initially at a steady gallop and then one marginally increased by Ryan before a quickening between the penultimate and final furlongs, the gulf in class was starkly evident.

As with Frankel in his 2000 Guineas, when the fringe performers were catching him to a minor degree at the line after the verdict was long decided, so it was on Saturday. Willie Ryan, a Derby winning jockey in his younger days and long-time observer of all the greats with a close up of Frankel’s career and more recently all the best Godolphin horses in Charlie Appleby’s yard, was adamant. “I know the Rowley Mile is a great front-runner’s track, so Ryan was right to dictate, but to do it like that in any championship race, and especially the Dewhurst, was very special.”

Justify may have won the 2018 Triple Crown in the US, as had another Coolmore America stallion, American Pharoah, two years earlier, but the equivalent feat has yet to have been achieved here since Nijinsky and Vincent O’Brien from the same yard in 1970. Camelot went close for the team in 2012, winning the 2000 Guineas and Derby before finishing runner-up in the St Leger, but if ever a pedigree suggested they can finally end the long wait for another, City Of Troy surely has it.

Galileo’s final crop of two-year-olds this year signals an imminent end of a golden era for Coolmore and the partners’ trainer, but he leaves Frankel as his top successor. Inevitably, Galileo appears prominently in City Of Troy’s pedigree and increasingly we will see the Justify on Galileo mares cross as it becomes obvious how effective it is, with so many high-class racemares the great champion has bequeathed the operation. Like his ill-fated but still highly influential sire Scat Daddy before him, Justify, who was bred by John Gunther, produces top-class turf horses.

With eight three-year-olds and a dozen juveniles to represent him in 2023 from Ballydoyle, the results have been spectacular already. City Of Troy’s exploits against the boys have been almost mirrored by Opera Singer, five-length winner of the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at the Arc meeting two weekends ago. She is by Justify out of a mare by Sadler’s Wells, of course the sire of Galileo.

City Of Troy’s dam, Together Forever, had already produced four classy winners before City Of Troy. She is by Galileo and if that wasn’t evidence enough, her mother was by Theatrical, another noted stamina influence.

The year of 2024 promises to be tremendously exciting with potential dreams of the first Triple Crown for 54 years. Whereas Frankel did not get the opportunity to show that he would have been just as superior to all-comers at a mile and a half – the ten furlongs and 56 yards of the fast York track in an easy demolition of his Juddmonte International Stakes rivals on penultimate start was the furthest he attempted - I’m sure City Of Troy will tackle that longer trip. Hopefully that will happen at Epsom on the first Saturday of June.

As media director Richard Henry observed to fellow Coolmore executive Christy Grassick as they walked towards the winner’s circle straight after witnessing the sublime performance of their stable star, “Now we know what we’ll be thinking about through the winter”. Clearly, he cannot wait for the first Saturday in May.

Neither can I!

- TS

Roving Reports: In Between

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We're into the bit of the season I call the "in-between" bit, writes David Massey; the Flat season starts to wind down, although there's still some good stuff to come, and the jumps hasn't really got going, with Chepstow today the signifier that things are about to go up another level.

The return of the evening meetings at Southwell will be my main work in the ring for the next few months. As I've said before, Southwell is one of the strongest betting rings in the country, you'll often get exchange prices or even bigger on some occasions, which makes it a great place for punters but hard to win at for bookmakers.

As an example, the one I work for just about broke even after expenses over the winter last year. You'd wonder why they bother, but work is work and there's always the hope that results will be better for them this time around.

We were at the first of the evening meetings a couple of weeks ago and weren't expecting much in the way of either a crowd or large wagers. Well, how wrong could we have been....

After a fairly quiet opener (in which I tipped the winner Papa Ricco at 14-1, just as an aside ;-)) it all kicked off in the nursery that followed. Literally the first bet I took was a £30ew on the winner Lotting's Lass at 40-1, swiftly followed up by another £25ew and £20ew from his mates. Then in come the each-way bombs for third-home Elliott; a £150ew and a £200ew, the latter from a well-known racing personality. Finally a £200 win on the well-backed runner-up Amroon just on the off. Suffice to say my payout sheet was a large one after the race, and the firm were well and truly behind.

You'd have thought having an 18-1 chance win the maiden would help but no, we took plenty of scores and ponies for winner Sir Terence Hadley, and The Pug was no better in the next. Sniper's Eye attracts two monkey bets at 4-5 before winning the next and third home Running Star is the each-way bogey to give us another kicking. I've twice been to the boss for more float money already before War Defender is a well-backed winning favourite in the sixth, and not even Dance Time at 33-1 in the last gives us any respite, with plenty of small tenners and fivers laid at 33s and 40s. An awful evening, and a shocking start to the new Southwell season.

Compare that to Tuesday night's meeting - a smaller crowd, barely a big bet taken on my joint (the biggest I took was £100 all night, and that won) and nine races with 35-minute gaps between the first three. Those, my friends, are long and boring nights. Thank goodness it wasn't cold.

The appeal for having nine races (and ten can only be around the corner, you feel) for tracks is obvious enough - hello, more media rights money - but for both punters and bookmakers alike it feels like a marathon. Most people had left after seven races and by the time the last came around the stands looked pretty sparse. If we are to have these nine-race cards, can we not have 25-minute gaps? It isn't like there's anything else on most of the time, so you're not clashing with anything.

The spell of recent unexpected good weather saw a decent crowd at Stratford on Monday, too. I'd been called up as the firm I was working for also have pitches at Pontefract and, with the sun out, it made sense to work an extra pitch. Plenty of people enjoying themselves but not a lot of betting action, it must be said. The crowd we were betting to can be best summed up as thus - for the third race, the novice hurdle, one punter came up to my pitch and had £20 win on a 150-1 shot and a tenner each-way on the 7-2 fav. I politely enquired if he'd got one the wrong way round. "Actually, no, but I can see your point, it would make more sense to have the £20 on the favourite and the outsider each-way, wouldn't it?" The boss wasn't happy as he switched his bets around but after he'd backed the winner he thanked me and bet with us all afternoon. See, customer service, it's what it's all about!

Other than those fixtures I've not been about a lot. We, that's the new Mrs Massey and me, had a very pleasant day out at Newmarket for the Sun Chariot and managed to fail to back a single winner. It was good to be there for Inspiral's win and subsequent Frankie Group 1 leap to keep the crowd happy, but all the same it would have been nice if I'd had the chance to roar one home.

I've been to my local track, Nottingham, a couple of times, too, and thankfully the punting there has been a lot more successful. I have bailed out of Wednesday's Nottingham card as the weather forecast suggested a very soggy day ahead - they were right - and given I fancied nothing at all, I chose to stay home and have a study up for the weekend!

We're off to York tomorrow as it's the good lady's birthday so please do come say hello if you see us loitering by the paddock!

- DM

Steamers and Drifters: Part 2

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In this follow-up article I am once again looking at market movement between the bookmaker’s opening show and the returned Starting Price, writes Dave Renham. The data I've used has been taken from 2018 to 2022 for all UK flat and all-weather racing. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

In the first piece, which you can read here, the overall stats showed that a bigger percentage of horses drift (lengthen) in price from their opening price than shorten, when comparing market movement from opening show to SP. The biggest difference can be seen in horses that open 10/1 or bigger; of these over 42% drift in price compared with 29% that shorten.

Up to now in this research, I have not considered how much the price changed. Clearly all price movement is not the same; for example, a horse can drift from 4/1 to 9/2, but another 4/1 shot could drift far more dramatically out to 10/1 as an extreme, but perfectly credible, example. Likewise, horses that shorten in price can vary markedly in terms of how much their price contracts.

At this point I want to discuss what I mean by "significant price changes" as we need to be clear that looking at the difference in two prices does not necessarily tell the whole story. To help explain what I mean, let me give you some context. Let us consider two horses:

Horse A – whose opening price is 40/1 and whose SP is 20/1

Horse B – whose opening price is 6/4 and whose SP is Evens

If we focus solely on the prices, Horse A has shortened more because 40/1 to 20/1 is a 20-point truncation, whereas for Horse B moving from 6/4 to Evens is only a 0.5-point move. However, in terms of the chance of winning, Horse B has actually improved its chances more. In order to appreciate this, we need to understand the percentages behind the odds – in other words the percentage chance of winning according to the odds. The table below illustrates this:

 

 

As the table shows, Horse A has improved its chances of winning by 2.4% (4.8% minus 2.4%). However, Horse B has improved its chance of winning by 10% (50% minus 40%). Knowing and understanding betting odds in terms of the percentage chance of winning is very important. When I wrote my article on trying to create an odds line, the percentage chance for each horse was something I touched upon. Without it, you cannot easily create an accurate odds line.

At the end of this article, I have produced a table with fractional odds, decimal odds and the implied probability (percentage chance of winning) for betting prices. Readers, if required, may use it as a ready reckoner to convert odds into percentages.

It is now time to compare horses that shorten considerably from opening show to SP with those that lengthen/drift considerably. I am going to only consider horses whose prices have changed, in win percentage terms, by 10% or more. Hence the 6/4 to Even money horses mentioned earlier will count, but not the 40/1 into 20/1 ones. (N.B. The word ‘steamer’ is often used about a horse whose price starts to drop dramatically so for the rest of the article I will use ‘steamer’ for horses that shorten in price).

Let's look at strike rates first – for horses whose win chance changes by 10% or more due to their odds move:

 

 

These figures correlate with the findings of the first article and the general data set. Steamers have won 5.5% more often than drifters. However, this does not mean that steamers have produced better returns. In fact, it is quite the contrary as the graph below shows:

 

 

These strong steamers actually lost over 13 pence in the £ betting to Betfair SP; drifters lost just 1p in the £. The full breakdown of the results is as follows:

 

 

A 10%+ change in win percentage between opening odds and SP only occurs roughly once a day on average. Hence, this type of percentage movement can be considered a major price change.

I thought it might be interesting to breakdown the results further by splitting them by the odds at which they opened. Here are the stats for the steamers:

 

 

I have tried to group them so that the number of runs for each group is similar. What seems to be clear is that the worst performing steamers from a profit/returns perspective were those that opened at 11/2 or bigger. The shorter prices of 6/4 or shorter also fared relatively poorly.

Onto drifters now. There are not many big prices here because a 10%-win probability movement is impossible for horses priced 9/1 or bigger. For an extreme example to illustrate this, a horse drifting from 9/1 (10% chance) to 1000/1 (0.1% chance) has a win probability price movement of only 9.9%:

 

 

The results for drifters are more consistent in terms of profits/returns – there is very little difference between the worst performing price band and the best one.

It is clear from this data that if betting at BSP, significant drifters are better value than significant steamers.

 

Trainers

It is not worth looking at individual trainer data for the strength of steamer/drifter (+ / - 10%), as the sample sizes are going to be too small. Therefore, I am going to focus on trainer data for those horses whose prices changed in win probability terms by 5% or more, rather than 10%. This would include, for example, a horse shortening from 8/1 to 5/1, or one drifting from 6/1 to 10/1. I also restricted the runners a little by looking at horses that opened in price between Evens and 50/1. I ignored odds-on runners and those priced 66/1 or bigger for two reasons: firstly, because the majority of punters do not bet in these price brackets and, secondly, the individual trainer sample sizes are extremely small.

Steamers - As noted above I have broken down trainer performance where the win probability implied from opening odds to SP has improved by 5% or more. Trainers with at least 100 qualifying runners are listed. They are ordered by strike rate/win percentage:

 

 

The strike rates are decent as you might expect for steamers, but only a handful of trainers have made a profit. The Johnston and Channon stables have both done well from a profit perspective, as has Mick Appleby. Of course, for steamers, any value is gradually diminishing as the price is contracting.

Ten trainers have produced losses of more than 20 pence in the £, which is quite significant especially considering we are using BSP. The Crisford stable has the worst returns, edging above 30% for their losses.

Of course, if you could predict the steamer before it started shortening in price, and bet before it moves markedly, then the likelihood is that most of the trainers in the list would become profitable. Unfortunately, none of us has a crystal ball, which makes those types of predictions somewhat tricky! What would be interesting to find out is what percentage of horses that initially shorten from opening show, continue to shorten. Likewise, it would be really useful to know what percentage of horses that initially drift from opening show continue to drift. However, I do not have that information and guess the only way to find out would be by doing a live day by day data gathering exercise. That’s for another lifetime!

 

Drifters – Switching to drifters now below is a table of trainer performance where the win probability change from opening odds to SP has decreased by 5% or more. Trainers with at least 100 qualifying runners are once again listed.

 

 

There are six trainers in profit here with Stoute, Haggas and Balding drifters performing particularly well from a returns  and strike rate perspective. Indeed, all trainers in the above table have combined to secure a small profit of £21.52.

The two trainer tables I have shared indicate that at this 5%+ level of steam/drift, bettors might be better off backing drifters rather than steamers. In fact, if we look ALL trainers as a whole for both groups, we get the following overall figures:

 

 

Steamers, as we have come to expect, have the better strike rate, but drifters are offering punters much better value. So, the question is, do you want more chance of winners, or more chance of a profit?

Going back to the stats for Sir Michael Stoute in the second table above, his non-handicap drifters have totally outperformed his handicap drifters as the chart below shows:

 

 

Strike rates are similar but there is a big difference in the profits. Non-handicap drifters of this strength (5%+) would have secured Stoute followers impressive returns of 70 pence in the £ to BSP.

I must admit this has been a very interesting area to research. It is something I have looked at before but not in as much detail. It may be worthwhile comparing early morning odds to SP odds in a future piece, and also at some point I should see if the patterns I have found in these two articles correlate with National Hunt data. Anyway, as ever, I hope you have found the research enlightening, and all comments are appreciated as it helps me with my future work.

- DR

 

p.s. here is the table I mentioned earlier with fractional odds, decimal odds and the implied probability (percentage chance of winning) for betting prices.

Fractional Odds Decimal Odds Implied probability (% chance)
1/100 1.01 99%
1/5 1.2 83.3%
2/9 1.22 81.8%
1/4 1.25 80%
2/7 1.29 77.8%
3/10 1.3 76.9%
1/3 1.33 75%
4/11 1.36 73.3%
2/5 1.4 71.4%
4/9 1.44 69.2%
1/2 1.5 66.7%
8/15 1.53 65.2%
4/7 1.57 63.6%
8/13 1.62 61.9%
4/6 1.67 60%
8/11 1.73 57.9%
4/5 1.8 55.6%
5/6 1.83 54.5%
10/11 1.91 52.4%
Evens 2 50%
21/20 2.05 48.8%
11/10 2.1 47.6%
23/20 2.15 46.5%
6/5 2.2 45.5%
5/4 2.25 44.4%
11/8 2.38 42.1%
7/5 2.4 41.7%
6/4 2.5 40%
8/5 2.6 38.5%
13/8 2.62 38.1%
7/4 2.75 36.4%
9/5 2.8 35.7%
15/8 2.88 34.8%
2/1 3 33.3%
11/5 3.2 31.2%
9/4 3.25 30.8%
12/5 3.4 29.4%
5/2 3.5 28.6%
13/5 3.6 27.8%
11/4 3.75 26.7%
3/1 4 25%
16/5 4.2 23.8%
10/3 4.33 23.1%
7/2 4.5 22.2%
4/1 5 20%
9/2 5.5 18.2%
5/1 6 16.7%
11/2 6.5 15.4%
6/1 7 14.3%
13/2 7.5 13.3%
7/1 8 12.5%
15/2 8.5 11.8%
8/1 9 11.1%
9/1 10 10%
10/1 11 9.1%
11/1 12 8.3%
12/1 13 7.7%
13/1 14 7.1%
14/1 15 6.7%
15/1 16 6.2%
16/1 17 5.9%
18/1 19 5.3%
20/1 21 4.8%
25/1 26 3.8%
33/1 34 2.9%
50/1 51 2%
66/1 67 1.5%
100/1 101 1%
1000/1 1001 0.1%

 

Monday Musings: An Expensive Game

/in /by

Last week’s Tattersalls October Yearling Sale Book 1 in Newmarket highlighted the extravagant cost of owning a high-class racehorse, writes Tony Stafford. Top price was two million guineas – yes, Tatts are still in the Dark Ages financially speaking – which actually pales in comparison with some double digit million-dollar sales in Keeneland, Lexington, Kentucky in the1980’s.

It’s still steamy enough, though, even when the Frankel colt in question is shared out between the Coolmore partners and Peter Brant, of whom I spoke last week.

Of course, they didn’t buy only one, but the thought’s just the same. Add up to £100 a day (or more) to that initial investment for their young horse after initially breaking and pre-training, to inhabit one of the premier yards in the business and you begin to understand the extent of the investment.

Then, when this routinely “beautifully bred” individual eventually arrives in his yard, the top trainer is liable to say, “He [or she] will need time. If he/she runs as a two-year-old, it will be in September or October, or we may even have to wait for the all-weather in mid-winter.”

I watched on Thursday in the buffet dining room – no, if you were wondering, I’ve only ever in all my 55 years at this sale been invited once into the posh dining room. Thus, it’s dish of the day (at 18 quid!) for me and John Hancock, bloodstock insurance man extraordinaire, but he couldn’t be there last week due to dog minding duties. He’ll be in his usual spot today onwards though for Book 2 when the prices will have cooled more than somewhat, but not for Dish of the Day!

So, we gathered by the screen, watching the second run of my friend’s horse (he was invited to lunch) at Salisbury. We thought he would win but a combination of soft ground, a longer trip and different and, as it proved, less judicious riding tactics, brought disappointment.

That’s an aside. My point is that this race was worth £5,400 to the winner – the owner gets around 70% of that - second prize was £2,535, third £1,268 and fourth £634. That works out as around two months’ keep being retrieved for the winning owner, without of course the additional fees for the extras needed during his training at home and the now excessive diesel costs of getting the horse there.

Luckily for the winner, another successful project for the Goodwood Owners Group, he was trained nearby at Guy Harwood’s Pulborough stables by David Menuisier. Gail Brown has headed up the now 30 years of the group and this representative of the 2023 intake, Goodwood Odyssey, has 140 members to defray the cost. He was a £50k buy.

Runner-up Sea The Thunder was also trained relatively close at hand, by Ralph Beckett near Andover, Hampshire. This horse was bred and is owned by John and daughter Tanya Gunther, who bought back their son of Kingman for 200,000 guineas last October.

I met the Gunthers later on Thursday at Newsells Park Stud’s cosy entertaining facility adjacent to the boxes where the yearlings from the farm that topped Book 1’s aggregate of sales were housed. I must thank Gary Coffey of Newsells for that invite.

The Hertfordshire nursery recruited the Gunthers’ Without Parole to join their stalwart sire Nathaniel (Enable and Desert Crown, no less) three years ago, and the couple were marking time waiting for the last of three of his yearlings to go through the ring.

In realising 120k, their colt out of Midnight Hush, who looked the part beforehand, was an excellent result for a first-season yearling whose sire stands for only £7,000, so this was a cause for celebration. Six more Without Paroles will be offered this week in Book 2.

Before the Gunther colt’s sale, as I munched a second piece of carrot cake and sipped a follow-up cup of Newsells’ excellent coffee, Tanya kindly gave me a Without Parole keyring, a substantial metallic piece that will help me avoid further losses of my keys. I said to John, “Without Parole probably describes life in any sphere of racing, breeding, training and even writing about it”. He agreed, saying he’d been involved since his mid-20’s. I’m up to more than 55 years now and there’s no sign of it ending and rarely ever a day off.

Back to that Salisbury race. The horses following the runner-up went through the ring for 60, 150, 150 again, 13k (bought as a foal as usual by the shrewd Julie Wood), 170, 78 and 70 while the last horse home never went through a sale ring. That’s an average of a little over 100k – not looking the most equitable of investments all round, so far, you might think. Then again, those that do well, can expect big bids, usually from overseas. That’s the crock of gold at the end of the UK racing rainbow.

The average sale price on the three days of Book 1 was almost 250k. I expect this week’s numerically bigger three days of Book 2 might come close to a six-figure average. In that context it might not be too churlish to suggest owners deserve to be treated generously by racecourses when they do go to the races.

Gail Brown, who also entertains the winning owners in her room within the owners’ bar at Goodwood meetings, will no doubt ensure a good number of “her” syndicate members can get in to see their horses run. Some tracks nowadays have syndicate rooms as well as the normal owner entertainment areas.

Newmarket on Saturday staged a meeting which featured the £165k to the winner Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies and mares and was won in brilliant style by the favourite Inspiral, trained by John and Thady Gosden for the Cheveley Park Stud, and ridden by a delighted Frankie Dettori.

Earlier on the card, the Tattersalls October Auction Stakes offered a guaranteed £150,000 total prizemoney. Entry in this was restricted to horses that had not been bought in either Books 1 or 2 last year, but for those recruited from the two lesser sales, Books 3 and 4, which will occupy Thursday to Saturday in Park Paddocks and some other lesser Tatts sales through the year.

As ever, it attracted a big field, so it was surprising that more of the owners and their friends did not take the opportunity to enjoy the excellent facilities and greatly improved food offered in the Al Basti Equiworld Owners Lounge, situated in the grandstand on the corner of the track where the horses come out. From there you can watch the races on several screens and even see the finish by looking through the large rear window.

Over the years, Al Basti Equiworld, from Dubai, has been instrumental in doubling the area of the facilities both on the Rowley Mile and during the summer on the July Course. It has been thanks to Michael O’Hagan, Al Basti’s representative in the UK, and Lynda Burton, the energetic, efficient, and very popular manager, that standards (and staff proficiency) have risen sharply over the past couple of years.

Now they compare with those on most major tracks, although they do not have the scope of, say, Chester or Ascot. On Saturday, some friends of a friend were looking for a day’s racing close to Cambridge where the three brothers were meeting for a rare weekend get-together.

When one, the eldest, turned up in shorts, I was horrified, probably still traumatised a dozen years on after my wife and a friend were excluded from the Members’ enclosure (they had the correct badges) for a Friday night meeting on the July Course because they were wearing designer jeans. We left in a huff and went to Cambridge for dinner.

It seems though that anything goes nowadays at the HQ of horse racing and he and his identical younger twin brothers were warmly welcomed, both into the track and the Al Basti room.  The brothers (one medical doctor, the other a scientist in Cambridge) were less acquainted than Mr Shorts, otherwise known as Rowan, with racing but, having enjoyed the day, they promised a repeat should not be long delayed.

They all backed the last winner – always the best one - about half an hour after they got a family picture taken with none other than Frankie, now in relaxed mood in the room after his big win. The photographer? No, not ham-fisted me, but another Derby-winning jockey in Willie Ryan. Frankie and Willie, like me, will both have enjoyed yesterday’s result from the Emirates, as did my son and grandson, the latter having a rare treat on his birthday weekend.

Space will be more at a premium in the Al Basti Equiworld room next Saturday when hopefully City Of Troy, the colt I believe is the best two-year-old I’ve ever seen, will cement his reputation in the Dewhurst Stakes. He’s a 4/7 shot. The day before, Ollie Sangster will be hoping that Shuwari, slowly away when runner-up in the Al Basti Equiworld Rockfel Stakes on the Friday of the Cambridgeshire meeting, when Al Basti sponsored the whole day’s racing, will make amends in the Fillies’ Mile.

As to the Cesarewitch, Hughie Morrison runs two strong candidates in last year’s runner-up Vino Victrix and the three-times placed in the race 10-year-old Not So Sleepy. I would love the latter to win but it will be tough under his penalty.

- TS

The TRUTH About Steamers and Drifters

/in /by

In this article I am going to look at market movement between the bookmaker’s opening show and the final Starting Price and unearth some truth about steamers and drifters, writes Dave Renham.

In what follows I will be focusing on flat and all-weather racing in the UK spanning five years from 2018 to 2022. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

Typically, the opening show tends to be around ten minutes before the off, and these are the initial prices the bookmakers set. Backing a horse at ‘opening show’ and seeing it shorten in price means you have probably gained a decent edge and potentially some value. Conversely, if you take the opening show price and the horse drifts (lengthens) in price, then you may have lost some value.

However, it is important to note that more horses will lengthen in price than shorten. Here is a graphic to illustrate this by looking at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same, or lengthen in price:

 

 

As can be seen nearly 42% of all horses drift, compared with 34% who shorten. Roughly a quarter of all runners see their price remain steady. It is interesting to note that the percentages are very similar when comparing handicaps with non-handicaps (within 1%), hence the market behaves in a very similar way from opening show until the off regardless of race type.

My starting point for researching this article is very simple – look at opening show versus Starting Price and seeing what effect the differential has on strike rate and profit/loss. In terms of profit/loss I am going to calculate returns to Betfair Starting Price. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to split the runners into three groups:

 

- horses that shorten in price from opening show

- horses that stay the same price as opening show

- horses that lengthen in price from opening show.

 

Using numerical examples:

 

 

Let me start by looking at all races.

 

 

As we can see, horses that shorten in price have comfortably the best strike rate, therefore, unsurprisingly, the market does tend to get it right most of the time. In terms of returns to Betfair Starting Price horses that have remained the same price have proved the best value by a couple of pence in the £. It may be interesting to note that there is little in it between horses which shortened in price compared with those which lengthened.

So, we have a very even looking starting point in terms of returns / value, now it is time to dig deeper.

Horses whose opening show price was 4/1 or shorter

I thought it made sense to look at different price brackets so let’s start with the better fancied runners. It also seemed logical to use the opening show price for this rather than SP as the opening show price is known pre-race. Here are the splits:

 

 

There is the same sliding scale in terms of strike rate, but it is the horses that lengthened / drifted in price that have been better value this time. Horses that shortened in price proved the worst value.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 4/1 or shorter and then lengthened in price

Focusing on this subset of drifters, it is interesting when you compare the results on Grade 1 tracks compared with other tracks. The Grade 1 tracks on the flat are Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York. Firstly, let’s review the win and each-way (win + placed) strike rates:

 

 

There is a difference of 1.6% in the win strike rates; 4.3% in terms of combining win and placed percentages (each way). These differences may look quite modest, but they are significant.

The graph below shows the return on investment (ROI%) to BSP for each group to highlight the significance:

 

 

Now we can see the significance of a 1.6% difference in win strike rates – the returns are over 7p in the £ worse at Grade 1 tracks for these shorter priced runners compared with the non-Grade 1 tracks. Indeed, away from the top tracks we see a situation where one would have virtually broken even backing every single drifter to BSP when it opened at 4/1 or shorter.

Whatever is occurring to create these differences between Grade 1 tracks and non-Grade 1 tracks for drifters, I am not sure. It may be connected with average field size; it may be connected with the quality of racing. It could be a combination of those, or neither.

Sometimes it is not worth speculating, especially as in this case it is nigh on impossible to isolate why. I’m happy on this one that it makes sense to just go with the data.

Before moving on I have checked the 2023 data (up to 27th Sept) and the same pattern for horses that drift/lengthen in price having opened 4/1 or shorter has continued:

 

 

The message according to all the information at my disposal is clear: horses which open at 4/1 or shorter and drift look to be POOR value when racing at Grade 1 tracks; away from these top tracks, such horses seem much better value – taking 2023 into account, going back to 2018 these runners would have lost you just 5p for every £100 bet.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 2/1 or shorter

Going back to data from ALL courses, if we focus on a shorter opening odds criterion of 2/1 or lower, and only look at drifters, we almost get to a break-even scenario. There were 7696 qualifiers of which 2801 won (SR 36.4%). Backing all 7696 runners at £1 stakes to BSP would have lost a meagre £49.13 (ROI -0.6%).

 

Horses whose opening show price was 2/1 or shorter that lengthened in price

If we once again look at the Grade 1 track data compared with other tracks for this subset of drifters, we see the following:

 

 

A similar, if stronger, pattern than with the 4/1 or shorter opening show cohort of drifters. Here, we are looking at a nearly 3% difference in win strike rate which equates to a difference of over 11p in the £ in terms of BSP returns.

As per the table above, drifters at non-Grade 1 tracks opening 2/1 or shorter have edged into profit. For this to happen across such a large sample – over 6500 runners – is interesting and impressive.

 

Horses whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1

Time to look at the data for a bigger odds bracket. Here are the splits for each subset of the cohort whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1:

 

 

It should have been no surprise to see those shortening in price winning more in percentage terms once again. In terms of returns, as with the shorter priced runners, horses that have shortened have been the worst value, albeit by just over 1p in the £.

 

Horses whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1 that lengthened in price

I wanted to continue the comparison between drifters in this price bracket at Grade 1 and non-Grade 1 tracks to see if we get a similar differential as before. I assumed we would, as my expectations were that it would only start to reverse with longer-priced runners:

 

 

As before the non-Grade 1 track data is notably better, both in strike rate terms and BSP returns. However, the gap is starting to narrow, though the difference between the two is still clear. This dynamic has to switch around for bigger-priced runners and we will see whether this is the case shortly.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 10/1 or bigger

Onto double figure priced runners on the opening show now. Here are the results:

 

 

Horses that remained the same price have provided the best returns, while those shortening have marginally out-performed drifters. All groups though show poorer returns than the shorter priced runners we reviewed earlier. Both the shorteners and the drifters offered poor value for the punter.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 10/1 or bigger that lengthened in price

Finally for this section, I wanted to investigate whether this subset of drifters produced converse results whereby horses that raced at Grade 1 tracks performed better than those which did not.

 

 

Here, necessarily, we have the big switch around: horses racing at Grade 1 tracks have the better strike rate for the first time and their returns are much better than their non-Grade 1 track counterparts.

When comparing the results of horses running at a different level of racetrack, splitting up the drifters’ data into opening show price bands has been an eye opener for me. In the future, if my plan is to place my bet late at a Grade 1 track and my horse opens up 9/1 or shorter, I would think twice about backing it if it started to drift. Conversely if I was planning the same at a non-Grade 1 track then I would want to see it drift!

As it stands, the research shared so far has been very general – hence the huge sample sizes. I have not yet considered how much the price has changed, because clearly a horse can drift from 6/1 to 13/2, but another 6/1 shot could drift dramatically out to 10/1 and beyond. In a follow-up article I will be digging deeper into the size of the change in price.

Back to this article and, having looked at the splits in terms of strike rate and returns for different price bands, I thought it would be interesting to go back to where this all started and look at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same or lengthen/drift within each of these bands. Here are my findings:

 

 

This is very enlightening as we can see that the percentage of horses that drifted compared to horses that shortened is similar in the 4/1 or less group, and also in the 9/2 to 9/1 group (green/yellow bars). However, in the 10/1+ group, 42% of all runners drifted, compared to a much lower 28.9% of runners who shortened. These stats are implying that we should delay wagering longer-priced runners by either waiting to the last minute or simply using Betfair SP. For horses that open at prices of 9/1 or shorter, the timing of bet placement seems generally less crucial.

 

Trainers

Changing tack, a quick look at some raw trainer data now. I have chosen 25 high volume flat trainers, and I am simply comparing win strike rates and A/E indices for all of their runners within the three cohorts we’ve used throughout this piece – horses that shortened, horses that stayed the same price and horses that drifted. I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

 

 

There are more greens than reds and, as a rule, the strike rates increase as you read across the columns left to right. This is what we would expect based on the overall data presented earlier. However, George Boughey is interesting as his three strike rates sit very close together, between 17.25 and 17.72%. Horses of his that have drifted have proved much better value than those that have shortened.

Clive Cox has a poor record with horses that drift in price as does James Tate, perhaps suggesting these yards know when to bet! Meanwhile, David Menuisier has done extremely well with horses that have shortened in price. They would have provided you with returns of over 17p in the £ to BSP which is impressive: another yard to follow when they’re fancied maybe?

I wanted to delve a little more deeply into trainer statistics and analyse the percentage of runners for individual trainers that either shorten, stay the same price or lengthen.

Below is a list of trainers whose runners drift far more than they. I have ordered them by highest percentage of runners that lengthen in price:

 

 

It was surprising to see George Boughey in the list and even more surprising to see him at the top. I also had not expected to see Sir Mark Prescott or Gary Moore appear either. It may be that these horses are often put in at defensively short prices on the opening show, bookmakers fearful of shrewd trainers/connections landing a gamble. Elsewhere, some less well-known trainers are arguably more predictable entries in the table.

There are not many trainers where this scenario is reversed with the percentage of horses that shorten in price being higher than the percentage that drift. However, five well known handlers have this profile and are shown below:

 

 

There are some big guns in this list. Punters are aware of the skills of these trainers and hence their runners are usually going to be strong in the betting market. It may be that these yards are, generally speaking, less inclined to gamble their horses, though in the case of Aidan O’Brien that’s not typically the case.

*

It is time to wind up this first article into market movement. There are plenty of stats to chew over and hopefully for punters who bet near or around ‘the off’ it has given some useful data to potentially improve your profit/loss bottom line. You can read part two of this article here.

- DR

Monday Musings: Of Kubler’s King, and Double Impact

/in /by

I know I should be dedicating much of today’s article to celebrating France’s successful conclusion to their horseracing Holy Grail – finding an unbeaten three-year-old colt who can win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, preferably as the favourite for Europe’s greatest race, writes Tony Stafford.

As I watched on a nice big screen at a much more leisurely Epsom racecourse yesterday, I picked out the motionless Christian Demuro near the back of the 15-horse field and not for one moment did I think Ace Impact wouldn’t win.

The sprint, when it finally came, was prototype “Arc”, Ace Impact sailing past them all down the outside with any doubts about stamina, class, or anything else you care to mention, made totally irrelevant by the manner of the win.

France has a true champion, one going by an appropriate name that is sure to adorn many colts and fillies down the road. Sir Philip Oppenheimer can be proud of the sire, Cracksman, bred by him from Frankel out of a Pivotal mare and now standing at Darley Stud.

Unlike Golden Horn, which he also bred, Cracksman didn’t win the Derby, finishing third to one of the least remembered winners, Wings Of Eagles and Padraig Beggy - although one that John Gosden, Cracksman’s trainer, thought a talented performer who might have gone further had he not finished lame in the Irish Derby in which he was a close third to stablemate Capri.

Ace Impact’s owners, who shelled out €75k for him as a yearling at the Deauville August sale of 2021 can sit back and wait for the offers to come flying in. The previous Jean-Claude Rouget winner of the race was Sotssass, who is now standing at stud at Coolmore at a fee of €25k. His racing owner Peter Brant was at Newmarket on Saturday.

We had a chat as the juvenile Group races were adding lustre to the first part of the card but, in the manner of racing at the top end, I’m not sure Peter had much of a second glance at the Cambridgeshire. I said here last week how it’s one of my favourite races and having made the 20/1 winner Astro King my best bet of the day in Trainers Quotes, a line I manage every day, I like the race even more.

I did mention that had Silver Sword been left in by Dylan Cunha, he would have been my confident choice, but the South African, who will be moving into the soon-to-retire William Jarvis’ Phantom House Stables, thought it would be coming too soon after his run in a Listed race at Sandown.

He knows best and that at least eased up the chance to stay with a horse I’d latched onto before the John Smith’s Cup at York in July when he started the astonishingly big price of 50/1 considering what an eye-catcher the ex-Sir Michael Stoute horse had been two races previously on first start for his new stable at Yarmouth.

Daniel and Claire Kubler train the six-year-old Astro King, who had been coming to win his race at York, going narrowly past the leader with a thrilling late run only to be caught in mid-stride, not by the winner so much as the camera which just happened to be situated at the only spot that would have counted against him.

Victory in the John Smith’s would have been a feather in the double Kubler cap. Instead, they had to wait for the Ebor meeting to make amends, the gelding having been raised 3lb, but still having plenty left to continue his upward trend in the Clipper Logistics handicap earning £51k in the process.

Astro King had been a buy from the Sir Mchael Stoute stable at the 2022 Horses in Training sales at Newmarket, for £36k having been originally bought as a yearling for 375,000gns from Book 1 of the October Yearling sales there four years earlier.

Sir Michael had nudged him into the low hundreds by his four-year-old days but after a less successful than expected five-year-old season, Desert Crown’s owner decided to draw stumps.

He had finished second (2021) and fourth in successive Royal Hunt Cup challenges, so understandably that was the first major handicap targeted by the Kublers. That race came between the Yarmouth eye-opener and the John Smith’s so when he trailed home only 21st of 30 at the Royal meeting, it would have been understandable if they had lost faith.

Instead, they embarked on a path mirroring and far out-performing what Sir Michael had achieved two years earlier, the Hunt Cup excepted.

As a four-year old he was 12th of 20 in the John Smith’s as the 7/1 joint-favourite and a close third in the Clipper, again as joint market-leader. He was off 102 when beating only one home in that year’s Cambridgeshire on his final start.

On Saturday, having been raised to 107 after the Ebor meeting win, he topped the weights with a massive 9st12lb. I’ve been limited in my research, lists of pre-1977 winners appearing without the weights carried, but certainly over the past 100 years this has been the biggest weight carried to victory.

It came with quite a comfortable course along the favoured stands side from his draw right on the rail in 35. Richard Kingscote was unhurried and once his determined mount hit the front in the last furlong, he was always holding the excessively gambled-on favourite Greek Order by half a length. Winner and second are both by Kingman but the runner-up, who was receiving 17lb, is a Juddmonte home-bred.

Dan Kubler began training in 2012 and in his first nine campaigns never won more than eleven races in a season. Those numbers have moved up markedly since adding wife Claire’s name to the licence. Claire is the daughter of their principal owners, breeders Gary and Lesley Middlebrook.

A feature of their training pattern has been the willingness to target the valuable prizes on offer in such as the Racing League and Sunday series, so that already this year, from 18 wins at 15% they have amassed £462k, far exceeding 2022’s whole year tally of £326k.

Claire, a qualified accountant, grew up around horses at her parents’ stud. Dan didn’t waste his time either, working for Roger Charlton and Jeremy Noseda in the UK and having spells with Ben Cecil in the US, Francois Doumen in France and Gai Waterhouse in Australia.

Saturday’s great win will give their upwardly mobile career a big boost, not only because of winning a major, prestigious race, but also with a weight-carrying record to boot. I expect a lot of prospective owners will be looking up their Google maps to find their way to Sarsen Farm, Upper Lambourn.

*

I enjoyed a first yesterday. I’ve often tagged onto the end of the scrum inside the Epsom winner’s circle after the Derby or Oaks and watched from near but at the same time oh so far away as the Queen, attended by Bernard Kantor in the days his bank Investec were the Classics’ sponsors, presented the winner’s trophy.

Yesterday, with neither of Strong Impact’s owners in attendance, I represented Ed Babington and my friend Jonathan Barnett as their promising maiden filly gained a facile first win after three good second places this year.

She was long odds-on to do so, but what was a surprise was when Anthony Kemp told me that Clare Balding was there to deliver the very nice glass bowl that went to the winner.

I understand the plan is to keep the 81-rated Roger Varian filly, a daughter of Saxon Warrior, in training as a four-year-old and she has the temperament and physique to develop into a high-class handicapper. The Gary Moore-trained runner-up Soigneux Bell should be watched out for, as he is about to make a start in juvenile hurdles after his second to Strong Impact, trying to concede 12lb. He won his sole race in France over two miles back in May, considering which he showed decent speed over this ten furlongs.

As we waited for the winner’s parcel to be made up, we reminisced that I had actually given Clare her first paid journalistic assignment in the racing pages of the Daily Telegraph. Everything is so long ago, and she revealed that the lovely regular walks she does for Radio Four have been going for 24 years. She has an idea for a special guest for the Silver Anniversary edition next year but I dare not reveal who she hopes willl join her.

- TS

Introduction to Dobbing: Part 3

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This is the third in a short series of articles connected with betting on horse races in running, writes Dave Renham. In the first piece, I discussed the idea of DOBBING which essentially means ‘double or bust’. You either double your money or lose your stake. Just to recap, here is a worked example:

Imagine you back a horse at 20.0 for £5; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so you set a lay at 10.0 for £10. If the horse hits 10.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £5 (less commission). If the horse loses but doesn’t hit 10.0 or lower then you lose your £5 stake.

In the second piece I looked at some in-play horse racing data on the flat and this time my attention switches to National Hunt racing. One could argue that National Hunt racing is easier to trade as the races are longer which generally allows the trader more time to make informed decisions. But does the data support that contention?

As before I am going to look at 20 months’ worth of recent UK data which is a very decent sample in terms of size. In fact, I started my research by splitting the data into two and looked at the overall NH DOBBING percentages for each group. One came out at 44.4%, the other at 44.3%. Hence, I feel we can be very confident that this data set will provide us with extremely accurate figures.

Dobbing Percentages by NH Race Type

My first port of call is to split the data into three race tyoe brackets: steeplechases, hurdle races and National Hunt Flat races (bumpers). Here are the findings:

 

 

There is not much difference between the three, but NH Flat races have offered the best chance of DOBBING, followed by chases and finally hurdle races. Most National Hunt Flat races are around two miles so it should be no surprise to see the DOB percentage at 45.9%. If you remember from the previous article the flat results for races of 17f+ saw the DOBBING percentage standing at 45.2%. Hence the NH Flat figure correlates positively with that.

Dobbing Percentages by Handicaps / Non-handicaps

Onto handicaps versus non-handicaps next and, for this data, I am excluding the NH Flat results (which are all non-handicaps) as we have that figure already. In the graph below I have shown the overall handicap versus non-handicaps splits, as well as then splitting this by chase races and hurdle races:

 

 

As can be seen in the chart above, horses are more likely to DOB in handicap races as opposed to non-handicaps. Meanwhile, handicap chases are the most successful DOBBING-wise although handicap hurdlers DOB only 1% below this figure. The lowest figure goes to non-handicap hurdle races where just 41.3% of horses successfully DOB.

 

Dobbing Percentages by Distance

When we looked at the distance splits on the flat in the second part of this series we saw that, as the distance increased, so did the DOBBING percentages. Here now is the National Hunt racing breakdown:

 

 

As we can see, the same pattern occurs here with the longer the race, the better the chance of a horse DOBBING. In the first article I had alluded to the fact that this might be the case. Races of two miles or less give us the lowest overall percentage (41.9%), whereas the longest distances of beyond three miles have seen horses DOB 46.9% of the time. There is a very strong linearity of improved DOB percentage as race distance increases.

It is interesting to note that races beyond three miles have seen a slightly higher percentage of DOBBERS in non-handicaps compared to handicaps, which is a surprise given the handicap/non-handicap stats I shared earlier. However, for the record, non-handicap chases at further than three miles have seen 48% of runners DOB. This is the highest figure based on distance parameters I have found to date.

Dobbing Percentages by Market Odds

Let's now look at the data in terms of Betfair Starting Price (BSP). For the flat data I used market rank rather than price and the flat DOB% stats were quite even although favourites (that were not odds on) had comfortably the highest figure in those findings. I felt it was worth changing it up a bit and using actual market prices, which is arguably a more accurate measure:

 

 

As with the market data from the flat there is no discernible pattern here. It does, however, look best to avoid the essential ‘no hopers’ priced over 500/1. However, it is surprising, to me at least, to see both the 50.01 to 100 price bracket and the 100.01 to 500 price bracket both hitting over 47%. I can’t explain that one, I’m afraid!

Dobbing Percentages by Courses

A look at courses now. Here are the DOB%s for each course, ordered highest to lowest:

 

 

There is quite a difference between the highest figure, at Newbury, 50.6%, and the lowest, Fakenham, 41.2%. What immediately strikes me is the difference in the configuration of these two tracks. Newbury is one of the biggest in terms of circumference being 1m 7f; Fakenham is at the other end of the scale at just one mile all the way round. Cartmel (one mile circumference) and Plumpton (1m 1f circumference) are other tight/sharp tracks that appear down the bottom of the DOBBING percentage list. Meanwhile near the top you have Ascot and Lingfield whose tracks measure 1m5f round, Cheltenham at 1m4f and Donny at 2m. Kelso which is in 4th spot does buck the trend though being just 1m1f in circumference.

Digging a little bit deeper, there could be something in this theory as I decided to find the average circumference of the top ten DOBBING% courses and compare that with the average circumference of the bottom ten. The top ten courses averaged out at 12.6 furlongs, while the bottom ten averaged out at over two furlongs shorter at 10.4 furlongs. Of course, a theory is simply a theory, but the numbers I have uncovered at least seem offer some support.

I need to add a proviso here that these stats come from only 20 months' worth of data. It is still a decent chunk of data for each course but, ideally, I would like four or five years’ worth.

 

National Hunt Horses with good past DOB%s

To finish this piece, I have tried to find a handful of horses that have, in the past, had a high DOB%. My hope is therefore that this will be replicated over the coming season. So here goes – there are nine in total and I have listed them in alphabetical order:

Ahoy Senor – Ahoy Senor is one of the top 3 mile chasers in the country. He has DOBBED in 11 of his 15 races, but with one of those races seeing him start odds on, this improves to 11 out of 14 (78.6%). In those remaining 14 races he has won five of them, but in six of the other nine he has still halved in price or better in running. I am guessing one of the key reasons for this DOBBING success is that he is habitual front runner. 14 of his 15 starts have seen him take the early lead.

Ashtown Lad – Ashtown Lad, trained by Dan Skelton, is a versatile runner who last season switched between hurdling and chasing. He has DOBBED 76.5% of the time (13 races out of 17). He has DOBBED in six of his seven chases, while in hurdle races it stands at seven out of ten. He has shown a mix of running styles with equal DOBBING success.

Before Midnight – Before Midnight is a 10-year-old gelding trained by Sam Thomas. His career DOB% stands at 75% with 18 DOBs from the 24 races when he has priced 2.02 or bigger. The slight concern is that his DOB percentage has been nearer the 50% mark when looking at the last 18 months or so, which is mainly down to a drop in form. However, he could now be well handicapped so it will be interesting to see what the 2023-24 season brings.

Brewinupastorm – Trained by Olly Murphy, Brewinupastorm has achieved 14 DOBs from 25 races, but this becomes 14 from 22 (63.6%) when you ignore his odds on runs (remember, odds on runners cannot dob because they cannot halve in price on Betfair). He has raced mainly over hurdles and his DOBBING percentage in hurdle races stands at a very impressive 75% (12 of 16 qualifying runs). He has raced nine times in the last two NH seasons DOBBING six times (66.7%).

French Dynamite – French Dynamite is an 8yo Irish chaser. He has achieved 13 DOBs from his 20 runs (65%), including ten in his last 12 (83.3%). He races up with the pace (led seven times, raced prominently 11 times, and held up twice) which may be a factor. Six wins helps, but overall, this horse seems to have very solid potential for keeping up a good DOB percentage this season.

Gatsby Grey – Gatsby Grey is a 7yo trained in Ireland by Oliver Kiernan with just 14 NH races under his belt. Of those 14 he has DOBBED in nine (64.3%). It is interesting to note, too, that he has never started shorter than 5.0 BSP. He has three wins to his name and his recent DOBBING record (since Nov 2022) stands at five from his last seven (71.4%).

Guy – Guy is an 8-year-old gelding trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has raced in chases but was switched back to hurdles at the end of the last National Hunt season. He has raced 21 times in his career and has DOBBED an impressive 15 times, equating to 71.4% of races. He has only won twice in these 21 starts, which was what initially caught my eye, as that would account for only two of the 15 DOBs. Digging deeper he has finished second nine times of which he DOBBED on eight of those occasions.

Hatcher – Hatcher is another trained by Dan Skelton. His DOBBING percentage for his career stands at 65%. He has won six races when odds on, so that 65% is based on his other 40 NH runs where he has DOBBED 26 times. Of those 40 he has won eight. What makes his overall record more impressive is that most of his racing has come at around two miles. As we know from the distance data shared earlier, this trip produces the lowest average of all the NH distance DOB%s. However, there is one caveat: as with Before Midnight his more recent DOB% record stands around the 50% mark so this does need to be taken into account.

Le Tueur – Le Tueur is an 8-year-old gelding who has been racing over fences since November 2021. He has DOBBED 14 times in 23 races (60.8%), but again is not a serial winner with just three wins. It is interesting to see that in two of the three races where he was pulled up, he still DOBBED!

So it’s time to wind up this third piece on DOBBING. I am in the process of starting to crunch some run style data for NH races, but it takes a long time - several weeks in fact. Once done, I will report back on that I’m sure in the future.

- DR

Roving Reports: The 4.00 at Plymouth

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It's been a while since I last wrote an article for Geegeez, writes David Massey. I was very much hoping to do one post-Ebor but other work commitments got in the way and then, before you know it, I'm in Plymouth getting married.

Well, not strictly married as such: we had what's called a civil ceremony, Caroline and me; it takes the religious side of things out of it (neither of us are religious, so it made sense) but we had a great day with our friends, including one or two racing folk among the guests. A little honeymoon in Mevegissey followed, and then it was back home and straight over to the other side of the country (for me anyway) with the annual three-day trip to Yarmouth for their Eastern Festival. The car has done some miles over the past three weeks!

I'll come to Yarmouth later but I haven't told you how this year's Ebor Festival went. In a nutshell, very little big money flying around the ring, results decent, and the most remarkable thing was me driving home at 11.30pm on the Thursday from my digs back to Nottingham as a boiler that was next to my room started making a lot of noise and wouldn't stop. I decided that there was no way I was getting any sleep and so threw a pair of shorts and a t-shirt on and drove back home to get some kip. I arrived back at 12.45 to find the now Mrs Massey somewhat shocked to see me at such an ungodly hour. "I'll explain all in the morning," I muttered as I slumped into bed and straight off to sleep. She was delighted to see me, really.

So you see, it isn't all glam working on the tracks!

I actually had more fun working at York last Saturday. It was a new fixture and you're never quite sure what business will be like on those days. Indeed, after I'd taken the princely sum of £260 on the first I was thinking it was going to be a long afternoon but business did pick up and by the last I was taking £900 on the back line, which made it a lot more workable. We needed a result in the last to make the day worthwhile and got one with Two Brothers grimly hanging on. At that point we were covering expenses and no more, so at least we won on the day.

It was a young crowd, I noticed, and quite a lot of novices having their first time at the races. That included a dad and his three young daughters, none of whom had been racing before but were fully engaged with the whole process, going to the paddock each time, picking their horses and having their £2 bets with me. They backed plenty of winners between them and when I gave them a free £2 bet on the last, Two Brothers was the pick, which really made their day! I'd like to think they'll be back at some point in the future. You don't need fancy gimmicks and music most of the time - just make it reasonably priced, don't have people's trousers down the moment they walk in, and they will come. And hopefully come again.

The young crowd meant two things - a lot of asking for ID's (most have it ready, for young people today getting asked for ID is part of their everyday) and a LOT of debit card bets. Now, our firm has bought some new card machines that are integrated with the software we use to place the bets and my word, it has really sped the process up. Before, you had to punch the bet in, then go to a separate piece of kit, hope the wi-if signal held up as you waved the card machine around in the air, complete the transaction and then print a ticket once approved. That used to take anything between 25-40 seconds. Not now. The new kit spits the ticket out in around 10-15 seconds and makes card betting a breeze. The boss was amazed when I'd done over 70 card bets at the end of play. It's what the young ones call a "game-changer", I believe.

It's a way off but there will come a time when card bets are going to take almost as much business as cash, so you might as well get used to the technology now. A lot of books have adapted to it but many haven't - whilst you might not necessarily need it for somewhere like Fakenham, you almost certainly will at Sandown, so to me it makes sense to get on board with debit cards now. Whether we like it or not....

And so to Yarmouth last week. I normally work at least one of the three days but not this year, it was something of a well-needed break after, er, the break I'd had the week before in Cornwall. The weather was not kind, with a very stiff breeze on both the Tuesday and Wednesday that was right into their faces up the home straight. Plenty of plastic garden furniture went flying, including one old boy who got up to pour himself a tea out of his flask, only to watch his chair disappear from under him and head towards the furlong marker as he did. Thankfully it missed everyone but it could have been nasty. The results were stupendous on the Tuesday and I know of at least one firm that caught sight of a couple of Newmarket faces quietly backing the 25-1 newcomer Cross The Tracks in the ring and cottoned on pretty quickly it ought to be a runner; they won over £2k for themselves on the race. That pretty much makes your week, unless you absolutely do it wrong for the next two days. I'm pleased to say they didn't and won well across the Festival.

I thought the maidens/novices on the Tuesday weren't that great but the Wednesday was a different kettle of fish. The Goldolphin pair that won their respective races, Romantic Style and Edge Of Blue, were both very nice horses physically and should do well, but at the end of the piece today I'll point you in the direction of a couple that might not be stars but should win a race or two next year.

Punters definitely got a bit back on the last two days and a few books that were crowing after the Tuesday were a little quieter by the middle of the final afternoon. There was a double-figure winner on the Thursday but that aside, on an eight-race card the biggest winner was a 9-2 chance. I won a bit on the week, mainly down to the away meetings at Beverley and Uttoxeter rather than anything I backed at Yarmouth, but I couldn't help feel the whole meeting lacked the fun that previous years had. I think I might give it a miss next year and just take the new Mrs Massey away for a week somewhere nice. I hear Kelso is lovely around this time of the year...

Anyway, to finish off with, here's the two I've put in the tracker labelled "Future Handicaps".

Apeeling (Andrew Balding) is well-named, as she did indeed make plenty of appeal on looks and the dam, Satsuma, has produced a few useful sprint winners. However, she doesn't have the stamp of a sprinter - not yet, anyway, she's quite long-backed and has length rather than power and maybe 7f might be her thing. She's time to fill out but her second to the impressive Romantic Feeling was a big step in the right direction and was no fluke. She should be up to winning races.

Gamblers Kitty (Chris Dwyer) already has the size of a three-year-old: he's not only lengthy but tall with it and hasn't filled his frame out yet. He behaved well pre-race but was very green in the race itself, having little idea until the penny dropped very late and, once it did, he stayed on nicely under hands-and-heels to finish fifth to Cross The Tracks. There's plenty to come from him and he's definitely worth monitoring with next year in mind.

Good luck.

- DM

Monday Musings: Still Not Sleepy

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They raced for a lot of money in Ireland yesterday, the Friends of Curragh Irish Cesarewitch carrying a £292k first prize, for which 30 horses turned up, writes Tony Stafford. You would have won a lot of money, too, if you had found the Joseph O’Brien-trained winner, the potential heir to the Ballydoyle job one might suggest, sending out 150/1 shot Magellan Strait for a victory which prompted a quiz from the stewards.

The magical Joseph might well have been a little more confident of his shortest-priced horse of four, third home Dawn Rising, who had won Ascot’s Queen Alexandra Stakes as the 2/1 favourite under Ryan Moore at Royal Ascot back in June.

The two O’Brien stayers were split by another veteran of big-race success in the UK, Dermot Weld’s Falcon Eight, successful in the 2021 Chester Cup under Frankie Dettori.

The winner and second do not have the much less well-endowed but still probably more prestigious Newmarket version in three weekends time on their agenda, but 13 from yesterday’s race do, and I’ve managed to find another 11 from various races over the past couple of days even including an unplaced runner in the Preis von Europa in Cologne, Germany, yesterday.

That was the Saeed bin Suroor-trained Live Your Dream, who is very high up in the weights. This 14 was bolstered by Saturday’s Turners Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket, won nicely by Andrew Balding’s Grand Providence, clearly enjoying the extended trip. Eight of the nine that followed him over the line have the big-race entry.

Ryan Moore, amazingly, was back after riding in Sydney the day before, but his mount, Aidan’s Tower Of London, understandably favourite after his creditable fourth behind stablemate Continuous in the St Leger only eight days earlier at Doncaster, could not make his lenient mark tell.

In all, Willie Mullins had six runners in the big race. The ease with which Ireland’s champion jumps trainer knocks off our big flat long-distance races, matched only really by his main Cheltenham protagonist Nicky Henderson, is well chronicled, but here he was well and truly on the back foot.

Of course, all his sextet, plus one in a consolation race for those missing out on the big one, have Newmarket entries, where he will be aiming to add to his hat-trick from 2018-20. One of those, Stratum, was in the field but Brighton and Hove Albion FC’s chairman Tony Bloom was probably far too engaged watching his team beat Bournemouth (boo! – Ed.) than to take more than a passing notice of his veteran’s 25th place.

Expect an upgrade if he turns up at HQ, and the same probably goes for Jackfinbar (8th), Lot Of Joy (11th), Echoes In Rain (13th), Mt Leinster (22nd) and M C Muldoon (27th after making the running for David Manasseh and partners).

Echoes in Rain had finished second in the inaugural big-money Irish Ces last year, behind the then Aidan -trained Mr Waterville, who is now with Chris Waller in Australia. Ryan rode him into fourth place at Rosehill on Saturday and no doubt he has the Melbourne Cup as his main objective as had Tower Of London. Maybe the latter raid may be under review.

But the one trial that caught most of us out – yet it shouldn’t have if we had examined the very extensive history of his career – was the all-the-way gutsy win of 11-year-old Not So Sleepy in a quite valuable (by UK standards) 1m5½f handicap at Newbury.

Since making a winning debut over a mile as a juvenile at Nottingham almost nine years ago, the home-bred Not So Sleepy has now won ten races for Hughie Morrison, five each on the flat and over jumps. Not So Sleepy has raced 63 times (46 on the flat) with six second and five third places along with ten fourth’s, including in the Cesarewitch’s of 2019 and 2020. Under both codes he has won around a quarter of a million and nudged over a combined £500k on Saturday.

When he won his third-ever race in the Group 3 Dee Stakes his rating jumped up to 107 after that Derby trial. It has never dropped below 94 despite two long losing sequences – 13 in succession after Chester over the next 18 months, then another 15 following his Epsom Derby Day handicap win as a five-year-old.

Running well enough with places in tough races not to get much respite from the BHA officials, Not So Sleepy got a late and in many circles highly questionable switch to hurdling as a seven-year-old. The cynics were preening themselves after he was far too free on debut at Kempton, but he then bolted up at Wincanton which earned a 125 rating. One more pulled up run ended that mixed campaign.

So now it was back to the flat, for another six winless runs, but a portent of what might be in the future was a fourth in his first try at the Cesarewitch behind Stratum. Now it was back to hurdling, winning two Ascot handicaps by making all in devastating fashion, his mark already up to 144 by the time he turned out for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury the following February.

That year, the big field produced two false starts and after being in a great position to jump first time round, Not So Sleepy found himself hampered at the eventual departure and the then eight-year-old was never in contention. Hughie and his owners Lord and Lady Blyth still had the ambition to run in the Champion Hurdle, but he was pulled up.

A break followed until the autumn, when under Graham Lee he won a Pontefract handicap off that career lowest 94 before his fourth place to Mullins’ Great White Shark at Newmarket in Cesarewitch number two. He then resumed over hurdles, jinking and unseating at the first flight in the 2020 Fighting Fifth won by Epatante, before gaining a second win in the Betfair Exchange Hurdle at Ascot.

This gave Morrison great satisfaction as he beat a former stable-companion, Buzz, whom the owners had moved to Henderson after Morrison had successfully managed physical issues in his early days on the flat.

He then ran a much improved race, fifth in Honeysuckle’s first Champion Hurdle, before taking in the Chester Cup, finishing a close seventh. He still got his lengthy summer break, but instead of a third run at Newmarket, a close second in a Doncaster handicap was the prelude to a dead-heat with Epatante in the 20201 Fighting Fifth before a fifth place behind the same J P McManus mare in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the same position, a little closer than the previous year, behind Honeysuckle in her repeat championship.

He continued with two relatively disappointing runs in summer 2022 but was back in top form with a third after taking up the running a mile out in last year’s Cesarewitch.

Three hurdles runs, two behind the new star Constitution Hill, including once more in his fourth Champion Hurdle, preceded the usual summer break. And you can guess the rest.

He returned at Newbury on Saturday, his trainer joking before the race, having heard the news that Constitution Hill was to continue hurdling, with a wry: “Whatever happens today, I can categorically state that Not So Sleepy will NOT be going chasing this winter.”

So next month, he will be trying to match another of his rival Henderson’s achievements. Nicky won the 2008 Cesarewitch with the 11-year-old Caracciola who proceeded to win the Queen Alexandra at age 12. Morrison has a Group 1 win on his record with 10-year-old Alcazar, but if Not So Sleepy does the deed at the fourth time of asking, that would be a bigger achievement to my mind.

Both the Cesarewitch and Cambridgeshire began life in 1839 and they are two of my favourite races. I was hoping to write a piece today outlining why I thought Dylan Cunha’s Silver Sword was a good thing to win the race next Saturday, but the trainer is unwilling to run him back so soon after his eye-catching run last week in Listed company at Sandown. He prefers to wait for a race he has in mind at Santa Anita in November. If only!

In his absence, I would love to see William Knight make up for last year’s unlucky defeat of Dual Identity, who won most impressively recently at Sandown. All we can hope is that Knight, who has had no luck this year, might have it turn his way this weekend for a change.

- TS

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