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It's 1st September, the kids are about to go back to school, the nights are drawing in, and those hot balmy evenings are soon to be a thing of the past. OK, so point one may not be applicable to you, and point three wasn't applicable to any of us (!) but, nevertheless, the month of September is the beginning of the changing of the seasons. And it's also the time when we welcome back an old friend.
Yes, I am of course (of course!) talking about Peter May's UK National Hunt ratings! Dormant from May to August, where Peter feels they don't really produce as well as he'd like, they're now ready to burst forth once more until the end of next April. So, what are they and how do we use them?
They are ratings, numerical barometers of a horse's prospects in a given race, and they appear on your racecard in the 'SR' column. I think we might change that to 'PJM' because SR - speed rating - is not quite right. You see, Peter's numbers are derived from a neural network: he's been doing artificial intelligence since long before it became fashionable. And they're much than a measure of speed; they include a number of form considerations making them a sort of composite of, in Racing Post terms, RPR (Racing Post Rating) and TS (Topspeed) - both of which we also publish on geegeez. Here's an example:
But how have they performed? Well, it's important to consider that no rating set should be expected to be profitable to follow blind... although Peter's actually were last season. Backing the top-rated on his numbers in every NH race from September 2022 to April 2023 at Betfair SP would have yielded a 14% return on investment:
This was an outlier in terms of annual performance so I don't propose anyone bets the top one blind, and nor would Peter. But it's indicative of two things:
The predictive power of the ratings
The relative value of the ratings
In terms of predictive power, the top one won just about a quarter of all races last season. In terms of value, these figures are under bet because they're less fashionable than, say, Timeform or Racing Post Ratings, which are virtually ubiquitous and suffer from a profitability perspective as a result: if everyone knows something finds winners, that thing will affect the odds available such that the sum of those winners cannot pay for the sum of its losers. If fewer people know about something, it has more of a chance to pay its debts. If you see what I mean.
Anyway, like I say, blind betting is not the way forward. But what about a few angles?
You may not know that 'SR Rank' is a variable in Query Tool, which makes experimentation with these ratings easy.
Let's look at the last three years (1st September 2020 to 30th April 2023), by SR rank - keep in mind these figures are to SP, so not as sexy as BOG or BSP returns:
During that time, the top rated won 23% of all races and lost around 10.5% of stakes. Not bad but not great either. Notice the strong linearity in the win and e/w strike rates as we get further away from the top-rated.
Let's now look at the top three rated by race code - SR only covers hurdle and chase races, so no National Hunt Flat:
Win strike rates are similar (though average hurdle field size is greater, note the larger number in the IV column), and ROI is slightly better for chases - though again, not something to get stoked for. Nor either was there anything of direct value in terms of going, distance, class, or handicap/non-handicap.
One interesting angle is combining the race favourite with SR top 3 rated. Favourites in UK NH hurdles and chases in the sample period have won 35% of the time for an SP loss of just 4.7% - which is a lot of fun for negligible damage if that's the way you roll... but only betting those jollies which were also top 3 on SR reduced starting price losses to 3% at a winning clip of 39%. That's going to be a reasonable profit at BSP or BOG, albeit with the important caveat that we don't know the SP favourite in advance.
*In fact, and this is cherry-picking, using the top 4 SR rated and SP favourite reduces losses to a mere 2.78%
Another element unknowable in advance but, like market rank, at least somewhat predictable is run style. Regular readers will be aware of the enormous general importance of run style and, particularly, of a forward position. This next table shows the top 3 rated SR horses by run style, where 4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 midfield, and 1 held up:
It's worth labouring the point because that top row is so alluring: we cannot know the race leader in advance of the race. But Dave Renham has done plenty of work to show how predictive recent run style is, i.e. if a horse led in its recent races it is notably more likely to lead today.
To close, let's overlay three components: SR rank, market rank, and run style. We know that the top 3 (or 4) SR's combined with the SP favourite have performed well; and we know that those top 3 SR rated racing on the lead have fared extremely well, so let's combine these angles to give us SP favourites in the top 3 SR which led:
Because we cannot predict the SP favourite or which horse is going to lead, it's worth asking how much value the above actually offers. Well, I believe a fair amount. Even if we went with the first two in the betting, and those with a led or prominent run style, and the top 4 in SR, we'd still have effectively broken even over a three year period and 8000 bets. At SP.
These horses win, a lot, and there are ways to profitably incorporate them into your broader form reading - and ways to analyse the historical data using Query Tool to find further angles. So, yes, welcome back National Hunt SR!
Matt
p.s. you can of course do similar research for flat races within QT - and you might well find similarly attractive angles 😉
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Cookie_Ascot_2022.jpg387830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-09-01 07:18:572023-09-01 07:18:57Welcoming Back an Old Friend after the Summer
This is the third article connected with my attempt at creating simple ratings for certain horse races, writes Dave Renham. The first piece looked at how you could create a simple ratings method; the second tested this simple idea using some historical results. As the results were quite promising, I thought I would extend the number crunching to more past races, and in this third article I will report back my new findings.
To give some context, I was looking for a method for rating handicap races and, as far as weighting was concerned, I decided to give each factor a similar one. In order to do this I used the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) metric.
The rating method I came up with involved five factors or variables – these were:
Draw – splitting the draw into thirds;
Most Recent form – for this factor I used last time out (LTO) finishing position;
Recent Market data – LTO price was used for this one – so the Industry Starting Price the horse was returned in its most recent race;
Long term form – for long term form I used career placed percentages in handicap races.
Fitness –I used days since last run to create the PRB figures for this final variable.
For more ‘meat on the bones’, the first article explains in depth what the individual PRB values were within each of the above categories. Here's the link.
Essentially each horse ends up with five PRB values and therefore when rating a race, we simply add up the five PRB figures for each horse giving them a final total or rating score. The horse with the highest total becomes top rated, the second highest total becomes second rated and so on.
In the second article I did some back testing on the ratings, although for this stat-busting exercise I decided to ignore the draw factor by focusing on longer distance races. ‘Time’ was the main reason for ignoring the draw – it was something that was going to take far too long to collate the necessary information. Hence my ratings were ‘trimmed’ – now they would be created by using the four other PRB figures produced from LTO position, LTO price, career handicap placed percentages and days since last run.
For this next batch of testing, I kept the first three rules mentioned above, but changed the runners rule to 10 to 12 runner races. Before sharing the results of this second phase of testing, let me quickly share my thoughts on what I perceive to be the most important finding. For any ratings to have the ‘potential’ to be useful, they need to show strong similarities with the actual betting market. The first phase of testing did see this happening. For example, the top rated runner started favourite in over 41% of the races rated. Just 3.7% of top rated runners started 7th, 8th or 9th in the betting. Ultimately if your ratings do not mirror the betting market that well, then the chances are they are going to be dud.
Of course, as punters, we are looking for value, and the hope is also that the ratings throw up value selections. The first set of results shared in the second article offered some promise in that regard.
OK, it is time to look in detail at the 10 to 12 runner 2018 results. For the record this comprised of 362 races in total.
Firstly, let's review how the top rated horses matched up against the actual betting market.
This graph perfectly shows the type of sliding scale one wishes to see. It is similar to the one we saw when analysing the 8 to 9 runner race data.
Over 35% of the top rated runners started as the favourite, while more than 72% of the top rated runners started in the top three in the betting. Compare this to 8th or bigger in the betting which accounted for just 5.1% of all top rated runners.
Let's now look at the second top rated runners next in the same way:
Again, this graph gives the type of results that suggest the ratings are fairly accurate in terms of assessing potential chance of winning. We would expect the highest bars in the graph to be on the left hand side once more with a sliding scale going from left to right. 57.2% of the 2nd rated runners ended up in the top three of the betting compared with 2.3% ending up in the bottom three of the betting (10th or worse).
So once again the top section of the ratings are looking good. Time to take a look at the lowest rated to see how they fit against the market. Firstly let us look at the market rank percentages for the lowest rated runners. To begin with let's review the 12th rated runner in 12 runner handicap races:
This graph is effectively a mirror image of the first two we saw, which is exactly what I would hope to see. Over 66% of the bottom rated runners ended up 10th or lower in the betting.
Now a look at the 11 runner races (bottom rated):
An even better set of figures here in terms of correlation. This is probably due to the fact that the 11 runner sample size was around 33% bigger than for 12 runner races.
I don’t see the need to show the whole graph for the 10 runner races as well, but the results were similar once more. The bottom rated runner appeared 8th, 9th or 10th in the betting market over 63% of time, while only 12% of them ended up in the top three market positions.
It is very pleasing to see that the results we got for 8 to 9 runner races are being replicated here. Essentially these simple PRB based ratings are looking like providing a relatively sound framework in terms of forming our own market – if nothing else. I discussed some ideas about how to form a betting tissue/market in this article which preceded this series. These ratings could be used in conjunction with that – or even be used in a stand-alone manner.
Time to see how the ratings fared in terms of winning – their win strike rate. In the 8 to 9 runner results, the higher rated runners comfortably out-performed the lower rated ones. Obviously, I'm hoping for the same scenario here:
These results are reasonably positive – the top rated runner has done extremely well and we do get the type of sliding scale one would hope for. In truth, the 8 to 9 runner data looked stronger, but when you analyse win and placed data, the picture looks more clear-cut:
This graph gives excellent correlation with higher rated runners hitting higher win and placed strike rates; lower rated runners doing the reverse.
It is time now to look at the performance of the individual rating positions in terms of profit/loss to BSP. At this point it should be noted that in the whole data set for this article, there have been some unusually big-priced winners. The ten highest BSP prices of winners during this study were:
Within the type of sample size used for this piece, huge priced winners are a common problem when trying to use BSP as a value metric. That is why in other Geegeez articles, where appropriate, I have quoted BSP on shorter priced runners only. Unfortunately using this shorter priced idea will not work effectively on the rating positions data due to very small sample sizes (for the lower rated positions in particular). Therefore, in this case, the BSP profit/loss figures for individual ratings positions shown below may confuse matters for some readers, but hopefully you'll still get the gist at least:
We do have to take the profit/loss figures here with a pinch of salt however; especially the lower rated ones. Ordinarily strike rates of 4.1% and 5.2% are not going to produce stunning returns of 78.6 pence in the £ or 57.2 pence in the £.
Thus, instead of dwelling on these skewed figures, it makes more sense to dig deeper into the top-rated runner results as these prices as a whole are much shorter. In fact 88% of all top rated runners were priced 12.0 BSP shorter.
I want to look at two main areas when it comes to top-rated runners. Firstly I want to delve into profit / returns, so here are the profit/loss stats for top-rated runners in terms of their market position.
It is interesting to see that the top-rated runner has made a decent looking profit when actually starting as the favourite. From a ratings value perspective though, I would have liked to have seen slightly better figures from the poorer market positions. Having said that, 362 races is too small a sample to see a potential pattern emerge such as that, especially when just 63 top rated runners started 5th or higher in the actual betting market. It is heartening to know that top rated runners that were 5th or bigger in the betting did make a profit of £11.15 from these 63 runners, but we need much more data. Not just on top rated runners but on other rating positions too.
Secondly, I wanted a breakdown of how far clear of the 2nd rated the top rated was. This is something that I omitted to think about when penning the last article. Hence for this next table I have combined the relevant stats from both articles to include all 8 to 12 runner handicap results. This gives us a bigger data set for analysing the gap between the top two rated runners. Here are the findings:
Before commenting on this, it must be stressed that despite expanding the sample size, it is still a relatively modest one. However, one could not have dreamed of a much better set of results (well, I suppose I could have, but you have to have some sense of realism!) The bigger the gap, the better the results – both from a strike rate and returns perspective.
My next port of call was looking at ratings position versus betting market position. I wanted to compare the performance of horses that are rated better than their odds position, compared to those who are not. Here are the results:
As with the 8 to 9 runner data, horses ranked better than their price ranking have done best from a profit/loss perspective. There is a big differential here, but as I have already stated, the BSP data for all these races is not too reliable, and hence I would not read too much into this.
Before finishing, I have one more set of figures I want to share. As I did in the previous piece, I want to look at the actual rating scores and group the lower rated runners as a whole, and compare them with the higher rated runners. Tthe lowest possible rating using my PRB scores is 1.64; the highest possible is 2.39. The groupings I have used are horses that were rated 1.64 to 1.84, and horses that were rated 2.18 to 2.39. These are exactly the same groupings I used in the 8 to 9 runner article. Here is the comparison of wins, runs and strike rate for our two groups in 10 to 12 runner handicaps:
These stats are what one would have expected based on all the previous data shared in this article. However, it is always nice to have expectation validated in black and white.
I have not added the BSP profit figures as the 1.64 to 1.84 group had two of those huge priced winners I alluded to before (353.78 and 137.3). Such winners totally skew the profit/loss column making a comparison a mockery (as we have seen twice before in this piece, with the profit/loss figures for individual ratings positions, and with the rating rank v market rank BSP comparison). For the record, the 2.18 to 2.39 group, which did not have big priced winners skewing the results, lost a modest 20 points to BSP equating to an ROI of -4.7%.
So that’s currently where I’m at. There has definitely been further promise in this latest piece of research. I will decide where I go next with this over the next few days and any new ratings research will be written up and shared with you in the very near future.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ratings1.png320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-08-29 08:54:352023-08-29 08:58:20My Simple Ratings Method, Part 3
The fashion had been highly acceptable for the first three days of York’s Ebor Festival, but I hadn’t been prepared for what was to confront me on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford. I arrived early as usual, and it was only when I ventured from the box after an early cup of coffee, that ranged before me was a sea of colour.
Looking closer, the wearers of those extravagant dresses were rarely past mid-teens, some even as young as eight or nine. It was Travellers’ rather than Ebor day, and by no means for the first time, but I had generally gone home before the final day of the meeting, so it was totally unexpected for me.
But regulars were fully aware of the make-up of the day and watching more closely, you could also discern the young men, again many in early teens. Both sexes were immaculately turned out, suits and ties for the boys, fulfilling the old-time posh enclosure style requirements (largely relaxed nowadays) and the girls, beautifully coiffed and their dresses looking fit for a catwalk at Paris Fashion week.
As I made my way out of the stand aiming at the paddock, those 70 yards were a minefield – no hint of trouble, just difficult to navigate through the throng which swayed back and forth all day.
I learnt that the travellers come from all over the UK for this day, swelling the crowd on Ebor Day on which inevitably Frankie Dettori, now operating without his long-time business manager Peter Burrell, took the riding honours.
He conveniently collected the big race (£300k) on Absurde and the other half-million Group 2 City Of York Stakes on Kinross to end a most astonishing fortnight of achievement.
Referring to the Burrell issue – Pete was the man who set up the book deal when I ghosted Frankie’s Year in the Life book. Frankie said the other day: “That must have been 25 years ago! <27 in fact> and added, “Pete didn’t like that I was retiring – it was as if he was the one retiring.”
You would have thought that the rider/manager bond would have been able to withstand this after 35 years together but apparently not. The way Frankie is riding though, you wonder whether he might go through his enjoyable winter spell in California with Bob Baffert and think, maybe, “just one more year?” - the punters will love it if he does.
A little admin followed by a catch up: I failed to deliver an article last week – I was almost halfway through an Ebor preview when we were forced to take our 15-year-old lovely little Yorkie Josephina to the emergency vet. She had suffered a sudden seizure and they said there was no alternative but to euthanise her. Here we are, on a happier day not long ago...
Tony Stafford and his beloved pooch, Josephina
The week before, I suggested Frankie had probably picked up around £40k for his percentage of the half-million first prize for the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville. He took a few days off after that and from that point, he had ten more rides, mainly at York.
Five wins from the 11, with two second places both in valuable contests and one third place, his total tally of prize money amounts to £1,882,000. His percentage – bearing in mind the place earns a jockey considerably less – will still be the best part of £150k. Nice work.
Before he changed out of his civvies, a smart light-blue suit as befitted the general air of sartorial elegance on the day, Frankie spotted Brian Meehan in the paddock. “What a winner, 16/1, why didn’t you tell me?” “Why would a jockey want to know?”, asked Meehan before Isaac Shelby’s run - he finished a slightly disappointing fourth to Kinross.
Frankie had time for his lightning change into the Kinross livery while I spoke to Sam Sangster about his ever accelerating career as a buyer of yearlings. The 16/1 shot Frankie referred to was Friday’s Newmarket debut scorer Jayarebe, who had tracked and then outpaced 4/11 shot Broadway Act, a Charlie Appleby/ Godolphin colt who had already had a good debut.
Sangster had bought him for €180k at Arqana’s October Yearling sale and the colt was passed on to the returning Iraj Parvizi, owner of Meehan’s 2010 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Dangerous Midge at Churchill Downs 13 years ago. Parvizi had been out of racing for some time and Meehan’s predictable comment was, “It’s great to have him back.”
Jayarebe could be in line for some big-race action and the decision seems to be the Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile rather than the Dewhurst at seven. That would seem sensible for the son of Zoffany who is a half-brother to a true two-mile mare and decent staying hurdler, Ian Williams’ Malakahna.
Sam Sangster said that the 180k he paid for Jayarebe was comfortably the most he’d ever paid for a yearling; Isaac Shelby cost €92k to his bid two years earlier. The Greenham winner, and runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas and the Lennox at Goodwood has picked up £340,000 on the track but realised a good few times more than that (Sam remains coy about just how many times) to Wathnan Racing before the French Classic.
He says he has bought 12 Group performers, ten of which have been trained by Meehan – the other two by Nicolas Clement in France. Four of them have been Group 1 performers, although he has yet to supply a Group 1 winner. The average price paid for those smart performers has been a very modest £51,000, given the amazing prices paid at the sales these days. He truly is Robert Sangster’s son.
When I spoke to Brian Meehan on Friday morning, he was very measured in his analysis of Jayarebe. “He’s very, very nice.” On Saturday I tasked him with, “You put me away. You said he was very, very nice. He’s very, very, very nice!”
In performance terms, on debut he beat a field chock-full of potential and almost all with big-race entries this autumn. He put up the fastest time of the day, rare enough for a two-year-old. You could imagine Derby thoughts going through the minds of trainer, owner and talent spotter. It’s early days but if he did win the Royal Lodge, it could be within the realms of possibility.
Deauville’s month of excitement came to a climax with a big win for Paul and Oliver Cole, their Jack Darcy winning the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville at 11/1. A winner of his first two races, Jack Darcy’s best run since had been a second place to the smart William Haggas seven-year-old Hamish, who would have been top-weight for Saturday’s Ebor if he had taken up the entry. But 10st9lb (including a penalty) would have been too much, requiring a 9lb higher weight-carrying achievement than Sea Pigeon’s 44 years earlier, in 1979, to win.
It was great last week to see Sea Pigeon’s winning Ebor rider, Jonjo O’Neill, still looking in his prime. He reported his team at Jackdaws Castle is ready to go as the jumps season gathers pace. One jumps trainer, though, whose horses are always primed obviously is Willie Mullins.
When I bumped into him, asking if it was right that he was expected in the same place that had been my base all week, he said: “Sorry no, I’m off to do the day job. Maybe later.” You could say it was day job done after Absurde had won with a peach of a ride from Dettori. Later I saw him leaving the track and said, “You might be okay at the day job, but you aren’t much good at coming up for a drink.” He laughed and said: “Next time.”
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Absurde_Ebor2023_FrankieDettori_WillieMullins.png318830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-08-28 03:54:262023-08-28 10:52:11Monday Musings: Ebor Wrap (and a word on a late friend)
Still something of a quiet summer on the courses for me, writes David Massey, with York throwing up little to report, although Craig David on the Saturday last was a busy day. Or it least it might have been, had the bookmaker in front of me not broken down (his equipment, not him personally) and been unable to take a bet all afternoon. Sadly, all he did was prove a blocker for me as he tried to get his equipment going but alas all to no avail. Let me demonstrate what a difference it makes - for the first four races whilst he tried without success to get going, I took 40 bets a race. Once he decided there was no way he could work and moved his kit from in front of me, I took 140 bets a race for the last three. Position is everything in the ring.
I see from the latest missives coming from the BHA that attendances are up slightly year on year. No doubt these music events have something to do with that but whether they make a difference to betting turnover is a different matter.
Haydock last Friday saw me working the Silver ring for the Nile Rogers and Chic gig. I've seen them twice in the last few years and they are an excellent outfit. You know more Nile Rogers compilations than you think you do, and you always find yourself singing along to Get Lucky at some point in the evening. Anyway, I digress. We're told there's a crowd of around 12,000, which would be about a thousand more than when Madness played here last year, and business that night was colossal, arguably the best I've known in the past 18 months or so. We simply couldn't get everyone on quick enough. So there are high expectations for the evening and we have three pitches (and six workers) in the ring.
However, through nobody's fault at the track, the place absolutely stinks. A local farmer, clearly no fan of Chic, has manured his ground and with the wind blowing in the wrong direction, Haydock doesn't so much rock, as honk. It's awful and very offputting.
Business is always slow to get going on these music nights, with many not turning up until halfway through the card (but will, of course, count in the official attendance) so we're not too downhearted when the first couple of races are poor. However, even when it does get going, it isn't the beano we expected. It's moderate stuff and everyone is betting early, so the last ten minutes before race time we barely strike a bet.
This is very much a "selfie" crowd. Lots of photos taken for social media to show everyone what a great time you're having, but little of that involves having a bet. One woman has a hat on that reads "RIDE" from where I'm stood; thinking that's a bit of a bold statement, it's not until she turns slightly that I can see it actually says "BRIDE". A relief all round, not least to her soon-to-be husband, I guess!
One bloke asks me for a tenner twist forecast 1 and 4 in the next. I inform him I don't do reverse forecasts. "In that case I'll just have a tenner win on 3". Work that one out, because three days later, I certainly haven't.
Twist forecast. Only at Haydock and Aintree do you get asked for those. Reverse forecast everywhere else. I suppose I should be grateful he's not asking me for a Liverpool Round-The-Clock. (Google it, if you're unsure. You can't call yourself a settler until you've done one of those manually. Fun for all the family.)
I've another punter who has, shall we say, had a Tizer or two. He's talking so fast I can't understand a word. We appear to be communicating in Morse Code. Dot dot fiver eight dot, dash each way. He seems happy enough, mind.
Sadly the final race is a three-runner affair, not what you want for the lucky last, and you know what's coming - everyone will back the outsider of the three. I make an easy £20 for myself backing and laying it pre-race - that's my petrol paid for - and when the jolly wins there's little to pay out. We've won on the night but business has only been fair. The only consolation is a call-in at the cheapest chippy in Britain on the way to the digs; fish and chips twice, and a portion of chips, just over £13. And they say you can't eat value.
Saturday is Ladies Day at Haydock, with an expected crowd of 8,000. The weather forecast is for some showers early but clearing up after 2pm. We can only hope that's right.
Sadly the Eau De Farmeur Gilles is still in the air, worse if anything, giving off a right pong. We get up and betting, slow to start again. However, we hit a problem. For some reason, the master pitch can't see my bets. This is a major problem as they can't get a picture of the whole book. I'm frantically trying to make things work, running up and down the ring (one pitch at one end and mine at the other) but nothing works. I give Tech Support at Newmarket a call but they can barely hear me with the PA, as is usually that case at Haydock, too loud in the background. In the end they have to take over the software from their end, a very useful tool, but they do fix the problem (server issues) within a few minutes. Sadly they're about to jump for the first and I've taken five bets. A waste of a race.
Race 2. I take my first bet and nothing comes out the printer. It was working fine ten minutes ago and now it isn't. Restart everything. That doesn't work. It's now hammering down with rain as well. Now the keyboard has frozen up. This is a disaster. The printer is still having none of it either. Ring Tech Support again. Now it turns out the USB port the printer is in has packed up. I'm soaked to the bone running up and down the ring and right now I want to throw everything in the bin and go home. I'm trying hard to listen to Ian as he explains how I can fix things but all I can think about is being in a warm fluffy pair of pyjamas with my tea in front of me. That's only six hours away, I tell myself. Hello, the printer's working again. I take two bets on Race 2 before it's off a minute later. That's two-sevenths of the afternoon wasted.
And in truth is doesn't get any better. Business is so poor I take 110 bets all afternoon. There's nothing to report of any interest, other than it was so windy by Race 5 my trousers had dried out completely. Attendances may be up, but on days like today, my spirit isn't. I realise not every week can be Royal Ascot but days like today really make me wonder how much of a future some of the smaller rings have.
I'm home for half eight and in comfy PJ's ten minutes later. Let's see what four days of the Ebor Festival bring...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/LisaWilliamson_Celerity.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2023-08-16 16:16:142023-08-16 16:16:14Roving Reports: Let The Music Play
A bright sunny Sunday smack bang in the kids’ school holidays, writes Tony Stafford, and what’s to do? “I know”, says Dad, “How would you like to go horse racing? You’ve seen it on ITV on Saturdays and always seemed to like it, especially when my bets win. But there’s nothing like being there.”
Looking at his computer – he doesn’t bother with newspapers nowadays, it’s all on the screen. “Oh dear”, he says. “Only Windsor and Leicester and nothing over jumps, which we always find more exciting. It’s a bit far to both, so we’ll have to give it a miss this time. You’d think there would be more choice right in the middle of summer.”
Dad’s right, you would have thought so. As a telly punter, no doubt he wouldn’t necessarily go into the intricacies of the day’s two programmes, but I have. Eight races at Leicester and seven at Windsor. The Thames-side track comes out just on top on prizemoney but only because it includes on the card a qualifier for a series contest, the £15,462 to the winner Juddmonte British Stallion Studs Restricted Race (Bands C and D).
A race designed for cheaper buys that might have some talent, it was by £10,000 and change the most valuable on the card. Apart from one 0-65 handicap, worth £5,234 to the winner, all the other five races carried a first prize of less than £4,500.
There was no stand-out race, value-wise over at Leicester. The top race was a handicap which carried £6,281 to its victor. All the other seven races were worth less than 5k.
Leicester did cater for slightly better class, if inadequately remunerated, horses, viz a 0-85 nursery, £4,711 and that six grand race which was 0-80. Otherwise, the upper limits in card order were 65, 75, 68 and 55.
Windsor, as stated above, had its most valuable (sic) prize in handicaps for a 0-65. Lesser prizes were affixed to a 0-60 amateur riders’ race and further contests with upper limits of 68 and 52.
Sundays in Ireland are usually planned to appeal to the likes of Aidan O’Brien and the other top trainers, but yesterday’s card, apart from one Listed race for fillies and mares, worth €32,450 to the winner, was humdrum.
That never means small fields and, with the big guns elsewhere or just taking a Sunday off, the other six races were worth two each at €14,750, €11,800 and €8,800 for a total of €104,250, still comfortably more than the £77,000 for the two UK meetings.
It’s unfair to compare with Deauville which featured the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, worth £505,664 to its winner and a handsome £25,309 for fifth place. Fifth in the bulk of the UK races yesterday ranged between £367 and £214, not enough to pay the jockey and entry fees, never mind the ever-escalating transport costs and training fees.
Generally, two-year-old novice and maiden races here do not even carry a fifth prize nowadays, but the Juddmonte qualifier did break out from the norm with £906 for fifth place and even £453 for sixth.
The four Deauville Group 3 races, each worth a not exceptional £35,398 in comparison with their UK counterparts, had a uniform £3,539 for fifth place, near as makes no difference to matching the win prize for 12 of yesterday’s 15 UK contests.
Now take Dad’s other gripe. No jump racing. Indeed, the stables with summer jumpers have been put on an artificial hold for two weeks, ironically at a time when the recent weather would have allowed plenty more to run than would have been the case in last year’s exceptionally hot and dry weather.
They start again on Saturday at Perth and Market Rasen when there’s also four flat fixtures including Newbury with its Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. There’s no jumping next Sunday either, I’m afraid Dad, just Sandown (Sunday Series finale), Pontefract and Southwell hoping to attract the family audience.
If our mythical Dad had not been dissuaded already he might have asked whether Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore, William Buick and Oisin Murphy would be there to sign autographs. No dice. Indeed, the only thing Dettori had to worry about yesterday was not breaking his ageing ankles with his flying dismount after Inspiral won that Gallic Group 1 for the Gosdens and owners Cheveley Park Stud.
https://youtu.be/ke9UdusqV9A
That probably works out at around 40 grand for the ever-accumulating veteran whose farewell tour is proving lucrative in the extreme.
Jamie Spencer would have been delighted too with his share of the 100k Light Infantry earned for the David Simcock stable for third and Neil Callan picked up some handy pocket change for his fifth place, referred to above, for Kevin Ryan on Triple Time.
The aforementioned Moore and Buick had to be content with smaller rewards having trailed home in the last three in the big one. Buick won a Listed (24k to the winner) and Moore was second in another. Even the top jockeys don’t have it all their own way every day.
Cut back to the sort of owners, trainers and rides who ply their trade at the lowest end of the UK horse racing pyramid. One trainer sent me details of a recent runner he had in a 0-60 race at Carlisle. The entry fee for this £3,000- odd to the winner contest was £37.45. Jockey insurance was £24.42. Jockey riding fee was £131.60 with £26.32 VAT and a processing fee by Weatherbys of £36.42 plus £7.28 VAT. Expensive things to push, those computer buttons. The total outlay, never mind transport to the track and training fees, was £263.49.
That same owner/trainer was bemoaning the fact that, as he sees it, the smaller owners with lower-grade horses are subsidising events like the Sunday Series which does not carry entry fees. Six lots of races carry extraordinary amounts for the grade of race and the last of six Sunday dates next weekend at Sandown will carry total prize money of £225,000.
Yet the take-up has been less overwhelming than might have been expected by trainers. The last of the series at Haydock eight days ago featured six races and none went ahead with the intended full field of 12, although one non-runner in the last reduced that to 11. The other field sizes were 9, 7, 11, 7 and 6. I can understand that person’s suggestion it was a waste of money.
Last Thursday’s latest instalment of the Racing League hardly suggested that this competing Sky Sports Racing Thursday series was doing much better than its Racing TV equivalent. The seven races, culminating in a richest flat race ever at Chepstow (echoing a similar situation at Yarmouth two Thursdays previously) still struggled to fill fields. The numbers here were 12 (full), 6, 11, 8, 10 and 8, with 11 for the big one.
Ian Williams, always one to aim for the big money, has regular runners in both series. He says that there is a real fear that if the take up does not improve, neither series is safe for the coming season. His horses in the Racing League run under the banner of Wales and the West, one of seven regional teams. They lead the way after two rounds with 319 points ahead of Ireland (242) London and the South (231), The North (217), The East, so Newmarket (187), Yorkshire (147) and Scotland (58).
As much as the presenters on the channel try to keep the team competitiveness interesting, it’s all so much a contrived enthusiasm. Punters want to back winners and are not bothered that the Wales and the West second string got up for third to stretch their points advantage.
These two competitions of course owe more than a sideways acknowledgement to the daddy of them all, the Shergar Cup, which started in 1999 and despite nowadays being less of a magnet for top jockeys, has a formula which has stood the test of time. Its latest edition happened conveniently on Saturday while both the other events that mimic it to a degree or another, were still ongoing.
There were some nice camera shots from the inside in close finishes on ITV on Saturday and it was clear that the Ascot grandstands were packed as usual. Ascot has that magic whatever time of year, although some people suggested to me that Craig David performing after racing might have had a bit to do with it.
The day before, I tried out one of racing’s most notorious traffic hotspots, the M6 on a Friday. I left home before noon and it took me almost exactly seven hours to complete the 260-odd mile ordeal thanks to one accident and some long established road works leading to my destination.
I had time for a quick bowl of soup before going into the paddock and was surprised to see just how calm Tom Dascombe’s Dufresne looked as he went around before the race as his horsebox preceded me by only two vehicles into the course. Imagine how long the poor horse had been on his feet rocking around.
The object of my journey was in the same race, the Michael Bell-trained Wootton’s Jewel fading to a very disappointing fourth after making the running in that novice race for juveniles.
Dufresne was a couple of places further back but considering he probably didn’t get the chance to have a quick rest in his box in the racecourse stables before being readied to run, that was a very fair effort, Next time, Dufresne could well do much better for owners Sleeve It Ltd and Tom Dascombe.
In the last piece I wrote on Geegeez I attempted to demonstrate to readers how you could go about creating a rating method in order to help you to analyse a race, writes Dave Renham. This article continues on from that simple ratings method, as I have decided to dig into the past and do some testing using historical results.
To recap, I was looking for a method for rating handicap races and, as far as weighting was concerned, I decided to give each factor a similar emphasis. In order to do this I used the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) metric.
The rating method I came up with involved five factors, as follows:
Draw – Using the Draw Analyser tool rather the draw tab in the racecard in order to define a more precise date range, I set what I felt were relevant parameters. These parameters had to ideally a) match the race in question; and b) give me a big enough sample size.
My ideal date range is a recent one such as 2016 to 2023, for handicaps only and, in terms of runners, covering a spread of plus or minus two runners compared with the field size of the race I was rating. So, for example, if it was a 10-runner race, I would set 8 to 12 runners on the Draw Analyser. The Draw Analyser gives PRB figures for individual stalls as well as grouping them into thirds. I used the thirds method for the ratings, grouping low draws together, middle draws together and high draws together.
Most Recent form – for this factor I used last time out (LTO) finishing position. For the relevant PRB figures I looked at two full years of handicap race data (2021 and 2022) to give what should be incredibly accurate readings. This amounted to several thousand races. The PRB figures had a range from 0.60 for winners last time out to 0.41 for horses that finished 9th or worse LTO.
Recent Market data – for this factor I used LTO price – so the Industry Starting Price the horse returned in its most recent race. Once again I used 2021 and 2022 handicap races to create these PRB figures. The PRB figures had a range from 0.60 for horses priced 6/4 or shorter LTO to 0.36 for horses that priced 40/1 or bigger LTO.
Long term form – for long term form I used career placed percentages in handicap races. Again the data for the PRB figures was taken from the two years of 2021-22 handicap results. The PRB had a range from 0.58 for career placed percentages of 51% or more, down to 0.44 for those who hit 20% or less.
Fitness – for this final factor I used days since last run to create the PRB figures. To give the most accurate scores I used the same data set (’21-’22 handicap races) as I had done for the previous factors. The PRB figures ranged from 0.61 for horses that returned to the track within three days to 0.43 for horses off the track for 71 or more days.
So, essentially when rating each race, I took the relevant five PRB figures for each horse and added them up. The horse with the highest total became top rated, the second highest total became second rated and so on.
After writing the original article my plan was to rate a few races and see how the figures worked out. This is something I am still in the process of doing and will feed back my findings in a future article.
[I initially had no intention of back testing results because I thought it would take far too long. However, using a bit of excel, a fair amount of copying / pasting, and a few shortcuts I thought of as I was going along, I managed to get a year’s worth of ratings data in a few hours. The only ‘problem’ is that to do this I had to ignore the draw factor. The main reason for this was that it would take me far too long to gather the draw data (probably several months). But there were other reasons as well, one being that a good proportion of course and distances do not have a significant draw bias so trawling through masses of these types of race would not really improve the ratings or make them more accurate.]
So my ratings would be created using the four other PRB figures based on LTO position, LTO price, career handicap placed percentages and days since last run.
When you create ratings or systems and then back test them on past results, it is important to ensure that you use a different data set. This is a common mistake people make – one I made the first time I tried to create systems back in the early 90s. Hence, having used a data set of 2021 to 2022 to create all the PRB figures, I needed to choose a different year for the testing phase. I chose 2018.
A year of handicaps gives me plenty of data to work with. I did however want to narrow that down by looking only at 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps, as this would avoid handicaps with younger, less exposed runners. My assumption is that these ratings will work far better in races that involve older horses. I also chose to try and eliminate any draw factors by choosing handicaps races of 1 mile 1 furlong or more. Without the draw in the ratings, it made no sense to test shorter distance handicaps where draw bias can be extremely relevant and potential skew some ratings results (without the draw PRB being considered). Finally, I looked at 8- or 9-runner 3yo+/4yo+ handicap races for the basis of this article.
Just to reiterate I am back testing my ratings on:
Year - 2018 (UK racing)
Age group - 3yo+ / 4yo+ handicaps
Distance - 1m1f or longer
Runners – 8 or 9
Before sharing the results of my testing, let me discuss briefly what I am hoping to find. For the ratings to have the potential to be useful/effective, more often than not, they need to show strong correlation with the actual betting market. If your top two rated horses are consistently near the head of the actual betting market this is a far more positive sign than if they are consistently near the foot of the betting market. Of course in terms of making a profit from your ratings, you are looking for them to be more accurate than the actual betting market and throw up value selections. Not easy!
OK, let’s dig into my findings:
Firstly let's see how the top rated horses matched up against the actual betting market.
This graph is extremely positive with over 41% of the top rated runners starting as the favourite. Indeed 79% of the top rated runners started in the top three in the betting. There is a definite sliding scale, too, showing the type of correlation you would be hoping for. Let me look at the second top rated runners next in the same way:
Again, this graph gives positive results. You would expect the higher bars in the graph to be on the left hand side once more, and they are. Just over 72% of the 2nd rated runners ended up in the top four of the betting.
So the top section of the ratings are looking good. How about the lowest rated? Firstly let us look at the market rank percentages for the lowest rated runners. To begin with let me look at the 8th rated runner in 8-runner handicap races:
The graph is reversed compared with the first two we saw, which is exactly what we are looking for. 44% of the lowest rated runners were at the bottom of the betting market in 8th place. Less than 17% of them ended up in the top four of the betting. Further positive news as far as the ratings are concerned.
Now a look at the 9-runner races (bottom rated):
A similar lay out to the 8-runner races with nearly 72% of 9th rated runners ending up 7th, 8th or 9th in the actual betting market.
I have to say that I am extremely pleased with the correlation to date between my ratings and the betting market. For something that is relatively simple (just four parameters), it is mirroring the betting market well.
So these ratings, on the evidence we have so far (based on 324 races), definitely show some potential. Time to see how the ratings fared in terms of winning – their win strike rate. Clearly I was hoping that the top rated runners would comfortably out-perform lower rated ones. Here are the findings:
More positive news with the top two rated runners both securing strike rates in excess of 20%. Also a clear break between the top four rated and those rated fifth to ninth. The 7th rated is very slightly out of kilter, but this can happen – the important fact is the trend from top rated to bottom rated is downwards.
What I now want to look at is how the ratings would have performed if betting on them. I am assuming that we are backing at £1 level stakes to Betfair Starting Price (BSP). Here are the findings:
The results for the top rated runner are a little disappointing, losses of around 17p in the £. Horses ranked 7th have made surprisingly high profits, but most of the big priced BSP winners happened to pop up in this specific ranking position. I doubt these figures would be replicated again – this is just the type of outlier you can get when analysing BSP profit/loss.
When taking the top four rated as a whole, they have outperformed horses rated fifth to ninth as the table below shows:
Considering how big priced runners on Betfair can skew the figures, these grouped results are very heartening.
I must admit I am pleasantly surprised with these initial findings. I am intrigued to see how the ratings work with shorter distance races where I can include the fifth parameter – draw bias.
My next port of call was looking at ratings position versus betting market position. I wanted to compare the performance of horses that are rated better than their odds position, compared to those who are not.
Just to clarify, some examples of horses that are rated better than their odds position would be as follows (I appreciate for many I am just stating the obvious, but just in case there is any confusion in my English/grammar):
And here are examples where they are not (these include identical positions in the rank of the ratings compared to the actual market rank):
My hope is that I see better returns for horses that are rated better than their odds position, compared to those who are not. This would suggest that the ratings can potentially pinpoint some value selections.
Here are the returns for each:
These figures suggest the rankings are doing a pretty good job – it seems there has been more value when the rating rank has been better than the market position.
Before winding this piece up, I have one more set of data to share with you. I am looking at the actual rating scores and grouping the lower rated runners as a whole, and comparing them with the higher rated runners. Now the lowest possible rating using my PRB scores is 1.64; the highest possible is 2.39. The groupings I have used are horses that were rated 1.64 to 1.84, and horses that were rated 2.18 to 2.39. These groupings from 2018 3yo+/4yo+ handicaps would have produced the following results:
The strike rates should come as no surprise based on the evidence of the ‘Ratings Win SR%’ graph shown earlier, but the differences in returns are even wider than I had expected. It is another indication that these simple ratings have some real potential.
I'm to park things here for now and start further number crunching for the follow up article. The data set of 324 races is a decent one, but before making too many bold claims, I think we need to look to how these ratings fare in other races. Research wise, I plan to analyse the 2018 data from 10- to 12-runner races next. Once that’s done, I will write it up and share my findings.
I traded the first seven races of the day from Ayr and Ripon. Below is the crib-sheet for each race along with a brief description of the trading decisions.
Ayr… Good/Soft
2.25
Roman Secret @2.9… Was outpaced on his debut, possibly due to being green, but did keep on well in the closing stages. Consensus is that he will be suited by stepping up a furlong to 7f, but this is not backed up by his dosage numbers [which I utilise in these situations]. He has a poor draw on the outside (0.44 PRB). His sire’s record with 2yo’s is 6% win/21% place against 9% win/26% place for all ages.
Prior to the race, Roman Secret was a bit reluctant to enter the stalls. In the race itself, he never really travelled but I failed to trade him! The crib sheet notes were quite strong, but I was wary that the race was full of debutants and perhaps a little trigger shy on the first race of the day.
3.00
One Dickie @2.26… Took a very keen hold last time in blinkers and disappointed. Headgear change to cheekpieces here, but if he pulled again in the early stages, I would trade him. He also has an awkward head carriage, but that isn’t useful for trading as he runs decent numbers when displaying that trait anyway.
Turbo Command @4.6… Has taken a keen hold when disappointing and is rarely seen over 1m (7f his optimal trip to date).
In the race, Turbo Command did take a hold and I laid him at 4.7. He took the shortest route however and when the favourite looked in trouble, I traded out @7.2. Surprisingly, he stayed on very well into second place, although I was relaxed having traded out.
3.35
JKR Cobbler @ 2.16… Was up 4lbs for last win when he was potentially favoured by being held up in a decently run race. Being held up and drawn high gave a 0.26 PRB and so I would watch to see if the scenario of a slow race and him being held up wide may occur.
Bernie The Bear @ 4… Looks thoroughly exposed and so I would trade at any sign of weakness.
In the race itself, JKR Cobbler wasn’t far from the pace and Bernie The Bear gradually drifted in the market through the race and I was never able to secure a price close to his bsp. No trade.
4.10
Flyawaydream@ 1.67… He was predicted to race prominently on the Geegeez pace map, which is an advantage here.
Glasses Up @4.8… Was an 8yo with 58 runs! But was falling down the weights considerably to a mark below his last winning one.
In the race, Flyawaydream was slowly away and I could have traded at that point, since it was a deviation from the anticipated, but I lacked conviction and only got involved when he was niggled at the back of the field. I laid at 2.72 (a little late) and then backed him back @4 (which, in hindsight, was premature) when he briefly looked like he might rally. I think I was wary of him being a Prescott ‘improver’ and conscious that the race was weak. Despite that, it was my most profitable trade of the day.
Ripon… Soft
2.45
Night Eyes @1.95… Lowther Entry. Most experienced in the field and should lead.
Roast Chestnut @3… Had shown promise on his debut.
It was a tricky race to call throughout and I was never tempted to trade it.
3.20
Juri @5.9… 3yo debut (but the trainer stats were positive for stable debutants). Wearing a hood on debut and going down to the start early suggested he was perhaps not straightforward. I thought he was worthy of single focus in the race. He also drifted appreciably in the betting.
Corellian Star @3.1… 3rd run but on dosage stats I wasn’t convinced that 5f was far enough for him (though tempered because of the soft ground).
Prior to the race I saw Havana Pursuit @8 look very reluctant to post. I placed a lay at 8 (anticipating a drift because of his antics), but as soon as I pressed the button, he came to life and went down to post perfectly well! Simultaneously, he was backed into 6.4! My reason for the trade was no longer valid and so I swallowed a red by backing him at 6.4. He went on to be backed into less than 4!
In the race, Juri was both slowly away and jinked to his right (drawn on the outside). As I had sole focus on him, I was hitting the lay button and got some at 13. He briefly recovered and I backed him back @21. I then saw on my TPD (Total Performance Data) Par Chart that he had used a lot of energy getting back in the race and had another lay @36 when he looked beaten. I had no need to trade out of that final lay.
3.55
Ey Up It’s Maggie @ 2.38… Had won off this mark and had a valid excuse for her last run.
Storm Fox @ 4.8… Had run poorly on the ground many times.
In the race itself, Storm Fox grabbed the stands rail and although he raced at the upper end of the pace chart, I could never justify a trade and his price gradually ran away from me.
A day I traded conservatively overall. I traded three of the seven races. I managed to take a ‘red’ pre-race on Havana Star which highlighted an important ‘rule’ that if your reason for entering a trade disappears, then you should exit regardless of price… no finger crossing!
If anyone has any questions, then please feel free to leave them in the comments section and I will answer them.
- Russell
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/pw5.png320830Russell Clarkehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngRussell Clarke2023-08-09 14:02:562023-08-09 14:02:56In-running trading diary, part 2
In my previous article I went through some basic ideas in terms of trying to create your own odds line or betting tissue, writes Dave Renham. In this piece I am going to show you how to go about trying to create a rating method in order to help you when analysing a race. There is no perfect way to rate a race; there are no perfect ratings, so this idea / method I am sharing is just one of thousands of potential ways to rate a horse race.
Two problems in the past I have found with rating a race have been firstly which factors to use, and secondly what ‘weighting’ or importance do I give to each one. Let’s look at factors first:
Factors / variables to use – to start with, one important thing to be aware of is to make sure the factors you ‘rate’ do not overlap in any way. A simple example of this would be using ‘last time out (LTO) finishing position’ but using ‘LTO beaten distance’ as well. These two factors are very similar as they are both measuring last time out performance and they should not be used in combination in terms of rating races; rather, choose one or the other.
For me I do not want to over complicate things so I would be looking for a handful of factors/variables to use in my ratings. Here are the factors I tend to concentrate on when trying to develop a rating system, and what ‘measure’ I would use:
Most Recent form – either LTO finishing position or LTO distance beaten
Recent market data – LTO price or prices from last 2-3 runs
Long term form – some stat connected with the horses’ overall career
Fitness – days since their last race
Draw – past C&D draw stats split into thirds
Weighting of factors/variables – this is tricky in my opinion, and I have no magic bullet to share with you I’m afraid. What I have struggled with in the past is which stats to use for each factor – win strike rate, placed strike rate, A/E indices, etc. Not only that, but how on earth do you ‘weight’, for example, LTO position versus days since last run? How do the individual LTO finishing positions compare with a grouping of days since the horse ran last? What grouping for days since last run do I use? I cannot use individual days, so do I group it in weeks, blocks of 10 days, etc?
There are lots of questions, but no clear cut answers. Suffice to say, you just have to go with your gut instinct in terms of weighting factors. Once you have rated a few races, you will get a feel for what you may have to adjust to improve them.
For this article I will be using the five variables mentioned above in an attempt to create simple ratings for horse races. As far as weighting is concerned, I am basically going to weight each factor in a similar way. In order to do this, my stat of choice is going to be the PRB stat (Percentage of Rivals Beaten).
Percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) – Before becoming a member of the Geegeez family I had not really delved into this metric much. However, now, I think it is arguably the most important racing stat I consider. For more information on PRB (and the other metrics used on geegeez.co.uk) check out this article.
On Geegeez you can find the PRB stat in a variety of areas which can be accessed from the racecard – individual horse records such as:
On the Profiler tab:
In the pace / run style tab:
And in the draw tab:
Hence, we can find the draw PRB stats needed for my simple rating method on Geegeez. For the remaining stats we need to make use of several hours of number crunching I did prior to writing this article.
How is this simple rating system going to work?
Essentially, I am going to use the five factors mentioned earlier and find the relevant PRB figures for each horse within each factor. Then I am going to add up the five PRB scores to give me their final scores or rating. I said it was simple! I would suggest trying this idea in handicap races; I would use a different idea for say 2yo races or 3yo maiden races.
Right, let’s go through each factor one by one:
Draw – I would like to start with one of the tabs you can use on Geegeez. Let us imagine we have a 1m handicap at Pontefract with 9 runners. I would actually go to the Draw Analyser tool rather the draw tab in the racecard in order to use a more precise date range. Hence this is what I would enter in terms of parameters:
As you can see, I have chosen a recent date range (2016 to 2023); handicaps only due to it being a handicap, 7 to 11 runners (+ or -2 from 9 runners), full ‘going’ range from hard to heavy, and ‘Actual’ rather than ‘Card’ as this takes non-runners into account.
In this imaginary 9-runner handicap example, any horse drawn 1 to 3 would get a ‘0.60’ PRB ‘rating’ figure, those drawn 4 to 6 would get ‘0.48’ and draws 7 to 9 the figure would be ‘0.42’.
Most Recent form – for this factor I am going to use LTO finishing position. For the PRB figures I have looked at thousands of handicap races to give the most accurate readings. Here are the PRB figures for LTO finishing position:
As you can see LTO winners have a PRB figure of 0.60 when running in their next race; compare this with horses that finished 9th or worse LTO whose figure is much lower, not surprisingly, at just 0.41.
Therefore, when rating each horse you simply need to look for their LTO finishing position and assign the relevant figure from this graph.
Recent Market data – for this factor I am going to use LTO price – so the price the horse was in its most recent race. Here are the PRB figures, again taken from thousands of races:
Another sliding scale here as you would expect with shorter priced runners LTO producing higher PRB figures. Hence a horse that was priced 11/2 LTO would be assigned a rating figure of 0.55, if they were priced 25/1 LTO their figure would be 0.44, etc.
Long term form – for long term form I am going to use career placed percentages in handicap races. The data shared again is taken from thousands of races to give us the most accurate figures possible. I have split the percentages into four groups as the graph below shows:
The beauty of this stat from a Geegeez perspective is that you can find these percentages by using the ‘Instant Expert’ tab from the racecard. All you need to do is to adjust the distance tab (top left of screenshot) to include all races (I use the full range from 5f to 4m4f), click the handicap tab (top right of screenshot), and for ALL flat races click the ‘Flat & AW’.
In the above example, the horse at the top has a career placed percentage of 43% and as this lies between the ’36 to 50%’ grouping, this horse would be worth a PRB figure of 0.54.
Fitness – for this metric I am using days since last run (DSLR) with once more thousands of races analysed to create accurate PRB figures. Here are the splits:
As you can see this metric is going to be quite even for most horses, as the vast majority of runners will have been off the track for between 8 and 70 days. The 8 to 14, 15 to 28, 29 to 42 and 43 to 70 groupings are very close together in terms of PRB figures.
And that’s it for configuring my factors. Hopefully it has been fairly self-explanatory.
However, let me give you a fictitious example which hopefully will help. I will stick to the 9-runner mile handicap race at Pontefract that I used for the draw data earlier.
Firstly here are our imaginary horses and their relevant stats:
From here we can convert these into the relevant PRB figures for each individual stat:
I have totalled up the five PRB figures for each horse to give them a final total (furthest column on the right). These totals are their final rating figures and I have ordered our imaginary horses highest to lowest below:
From these ratings, you would hope there is good chance that the winner will come from one of the top three (Fireball, Frazzle and Dobbin); likewise you would hope the bottom three rated (Monty, The Closer and The Gooner) are unlikely to produce the winner.
How you deploy your ratings is going to be different for each individual. You may want to use them as a basis for an odds line – in a 9-runner race, each horse theoretically has an 8/1 chance of winning so you could initially price up the middle rated horse at 8/1. This horse is Plodder – from here you could assign the rest of the prices using Plodder as your starting point, and then adjust them to get a book percentage of close to 100%. Once done you could compare them to the actual prices on offer to see if there are any horses that potentially offer you value.
An alternative approach is to simply compare the actual market position with your rating positions. Let’s say for argument’s sake Dobbin, your third rated horse, is priced up at 10/1 and is 6th in the betting, you might perceive this to offer value. Likewise if the top rated horse Fireball is third in the betting priced 5/1, again you might perceive this horse to offer you some value.
Essentially how you interpret the ratings is going to be personal to you – again there is no right or wrong way. What ultimately matters is how predictive your ratings are. I have not back tested this rating idea as yet, but it is on my ‘to do list’, as I have enjoyed researching and writing this piece. What is likely with a first ratings attempt is that I will need to make some adjustments – for this idea it may be that I am underrating one particular factor and overrating another. If that proves to be the case, I could apply some multipliers to the relevant PRB figures to help with that adjustment. For example, I may need to multiply the underrated PRB figures by 1.10 and the overrated ones by 0.90 to give more accurate overall ratings. However, that is for another time.
Until next time, I’d encourage you to experiment for yourself and if you find anything interesting, feel free to share in the comments below.
DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LTO_PRB.png320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-08-07 12:04:222023-08-07 12:04:22How To Create Simple Horse Racing Ratings: Example
There have been a few Goodwood meetings where the term Glorious did not exactly comply with weather conditions, writes Tony Stafford. Indeed, the lavish sponsor Qatar, whose name affixes to several races, in the process making the meeting’s prizemoney extravagant by most UK standards, is a more accurate term nowadays.
What was glorious and equally extravagant though was the performance of Quickthorn in Tuesday’s Goodwood Cup. It was notable for the less than gushing praise allotted to Hughie Morrison’s six-year-old gelding compared to the deluge of compliments afforded to his jockey Tom Marquand’s front-running ride.
Tom sent him quickly into the lead, maintaining the speed for the first half of the race by which time he was a good dozen lengths to the good.
It’s worth reiterating here, lest we forget, that in opposition were the winner, Courage Mon Ami, runner-up, Emily Dickinson, third home, Coltrane, and fourth, Eldar Eldarov, from the Gold Cup at Ascot six weeks previously. In between Aidan O’Brien had found time to win a Group 2 at home with Emily Dickinson.
On television and on the racecourse the commentators glowed with praise for Marquand as he merely had to keep his mount going to maintain a sizeable lead – albeit diminishing to six lengths at the line. It was a very good ride, replicating his 14-length win on the same horse at York last summer.
Excuse me if I misheard, but I understood the stewards had the also rans in to ask about their “misjudged” riding, as they had “allowed” Quickthorn and his rider to go around 20 lengths clear at some stage.
But this was a Group 1 worth £283k to the winner, and therefore worth at least 20 grand for the winning jockey. I doubt they were in any way culpable, just guilty of taking pains not to go too hard after what they considered a pace, if not too quick for the leader to maintain, certainly one to burn up their mounts in the early part of the race if they pursued it too energetically.
In finishing order, the beaten jockeys were Moore, Murphy, David Egan, Atzeni, Dettori, Buick, James Doyle, Rossa Ryan, Crowley and Kingscote, hardly the least talented band of ten to challenge for a major race.
In the event they provided a rousing conclusion (for the not inconsiderable place money) with a short-head, short-head, neck, and one and a half lengths separating Emily Dickinson (£107k), Coltrane (£53k), Eldar Eldarov (£26k), Giavellotto (£13k) and the favourite Courage Mon Ami (a puny £6,750 for Frankie to take a piece of.)
I always (additionally having been lectured by the Editor over the years) take no more than a passing interest in Racing Post speed-figures but it is remarkable that, having gone so quickly in the early stages, the winner of a two-mile race should record the fastest speed figure of the entire meeting.
Their RPR’s also sometimes have a sickly sweet aroma of fudge about them, too, but since his head second to the very well handicapped and subsequent Irish St Leger winner Sonnyboyliston in the 2021 Ebor at York, Quickthorn has run 14 times and only once recorded an RPR below 100. That happened when he collapsed late on (and was by no means the only one!) behind last year’s champion stayer Kyprios in the Prix du Cadran (2m4f) last October.
His overall record boasts nine wins in 22 starts, with three second places and one third. As well as that Ebor near miss, he was also close behind Princess Zoe in last year’s Sagaro Stakes. By the way, the moving of that great mare from Tony Mullins earlier this year smacks of ingratitude if ever I heard it.
Criticism of last week’s Goodwood Cup jockeys was the obvious way to go, but Oisin Murphy, who won twice on Quickthorn earlier in his career, told Morrison he dare not chase him as when his mount Coltrane, ridden by Rob Hornby, attempted that in last year’s Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York, he was beaten more than twice as far as at Goodwood. The question now is whether Hughie will attempt the Lonsdale double but when I spoke to him after the race, he seemed to be thinking more in terms of drawing stumps for the year. “He doesn’t seem to like the winter, so we can always bring him back next year if we are kind to him now.”
His earnings are a touch short of £800k, putting right the near miss of a slightly bigger prize in that 2021 Ebor. Morrison had been without a Group 1 win since Sakhee’s Secret gave him his second July Cup, two years after Pastoral Pursuits also won that Newmarket sprint. In between, the 10-year-old Alcazar won the Prix Royal Oak. Also a gelding, if the typical Morrison training pattern holds firm, what more could come from Quickthorn?
**
I recently outlined how Paddington is quickly creeping up on the Iron Horse sequence of Group 1 wins of his O’Brien forerunner Giant’s Causeway. His emphatic Sussex Stakes victory on Wednesday made it four Group 1 wins since the end of May and leaves him only needing to collect the Juddmonte at York already to match the achievements of the old champion.
Many more options are available to this later starter and now Ryan Moore has confessed publicly that Paddington could be the best horse he’s ever ridden. He even suggested that the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe may not be beyond his scope. If that was either the seventh in a row (with the Irish Champion in between) he surely will have eclipsed Giant’s Causeway. Slip in a race at the Breeders’ Cup and the Coolmore cup (and even their superlatives!) will runneth over.
My second favourite horse at the moment is one that hasn’t won a race this year, but the doughty sprinter Apollo One, dubbed trained by Peter Charalambous and James Clutterbuck, but firmly in the Chambo camp, is a true star.
Saturday’s latest instalment of his sequence of near misses in sprints came in the Stewards‘ Cup in which, remarkably considering the meeting was to be called off immediately afterwards, all 28 horses stood their ground.
Annoying for two, previous winner Summerghand, who was withdrawn lame at the start, and the sole three-year-old Rumstar, who dropped to his knees as the stalls opened jettisoning his rider Rhys Clutterbuck, only 26 completed the six furlongs that was finally about to succumb after a day-long deluge on top of all the earlier drenchings during the week.
When I spoke to Pete last Monday, I got the feeling Apollo One, up near the top of the weights with his rating of 100, might not run. The ground had been good to firm when he ran a one-length second of 27 in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot and similarly when also second to prolific winner Badri in a close finish on Derby Day at Epsom.
He’d never indicated an equal facility for handling heavy ground, for that assuredly was what it was on Saturday. But Richard Kingscote got him away alertly from his stall one off the stand rail and he was always heading the pace on that side as the contest devolved into the customary three groups.
Apollo One maintained his pace and above all his action in the ground all the way to the line but could not quite match conceding weight to the penalised Aberama Gold, a six-year-old ridden by Goodwood ace and soon off to Hong Kong Andrea Atzeni and trained by David O’Meara for lucky owner Evan Sutherland. Aberama Gold earned his penalty only seven days before in another valuable race at York, but nowhere near the £128k on offer on Saturday.
Charalambous had the consolation of collecting the £60k second prize for pcracing.co.uk which he heads and now can be looking at the Portland at Doncaster and, realistically now the heavy ground question has been positively answered, the Ayr Gold Cup.
Behind him in third and fourth were two eight-year-olds, Bielsa and previous Stewards’ Cup consolation winner Mr Wagyu. Quite a week then for the old boys, but Paddington stood firm for the Classic crop and bestrode the meeting with his sheer class and toughness.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Quickthorn_GoodwoodCup2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-08-07 06:23:162023-08-07 06:56:45Monday Musings: Still Glorious despite the weather
They're only just through the group stages of the Women's World Cup and it's kick off time for the Football League on Saturday (Friday night, in fact). What follows is my once a year foray into the footy where I try to find a sustaining ante post multiple to keep us warm through the next nine and a half months. We've had good times and bad times down the years, and this one is more likely to be a zero than a hero, truth be told. But before I share where I'm guessing this season, let's have a quick squint at the previous campaign.
Last Season: Pass the Sick Bucket...
I rolled with a yankee this time last year, and it didn't go especially well, I'm afraid. My four picks were:
- Premier League Dual Forecast: Man City-Liverpool at 8/11 (1st-5th, Liverpool finishing fifth after a lamentable two-thirds of a season was a minor miracle - never had a chance)
- Championship Promotion: Burnley at 7/2 (1st: made all, pulled clear, comfortably)
- League One Promotion: Bolton at 4/1 (5th, lost in play-off semi-final)
- League Two Promotion: Mansfield at 9/4 (8th, missed play-offs on goal difference)
After the Premier League bet sunk pronto - again - we got a fair run for, ultimately, no money with Burnley always looking strong and both Bolton and Mansfield teasing us remorselessly. In truth, neither of the latter pair threatened the auto places and we (me, and you if you followed me in) got just about what we deserved. But we did nearly get more than we deserved!
No more yankees, not this year anyway, and I'm dodging the Premier League, too. I was tempted to put Bournemouth up for relegation because I think it'll take a while for Iraola to impress his style on the squad; but there are plenty of drop candidates - and I get that market wrong every year, even being 'smart' enough to avoid the obvious promoted clubs (who look weaker this term but are priced accordingly). Nope, no EPL for me this time. Instead, I'm having a cut at a perm trixie, and it's probably fair to say it's a tad ambitious...
Championship Promotion
The market is perennially made by the Prem droppers, and Leicester do look strong bounceback contenders. But I'm far less sold on Leeds and especially Southampton. The best team not to get promoted last term, especially after Christmas, was Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough. He's done admirably so far, and has kept the squad together as well as adding one of the best keepers in the division from last year. There's a fair chance that 28-goal Chuba Akpom might move on (Sheff Utd strongly linked) but even if they don't keep him Carrick's rolodex grants him the pick of the Premier League's youth ranks in the loan market. They ought to go well with a good start.
League One Promotion
I've doubled up in both League One and League Two this season, hoping to hit one in each section, dreaming of getting the lot. First pick here is Portsmouth, a team who are pretty much always thereabouts. They were a little underwhelming last season, granted, finishing only eighth after a first half where they accrued a moderate 31 points. They'll need to start better, then, which is not a gimme given the number of players they've brought in; but if they gel, the likes of Christian Saydee, who did well on loan at Shrews (from Bournemouth) last season, and experienced cat Will Norris can offer a bit of extra quality at either end of the pitch. Colby Bishop had a breakout season last time, bagging 20 goals, and he'll be aiming to improve on that.
More leftfield is Blackpool. Relegated from the Championship last year, they have cashed in on top scorer Jerry Yates, who has been signed by Swansea for £2.5m. That theoretically gives manager Neil Critchley a fat wallet with which to go shopping. He returned in May having previously got the Tangerines promoted, and will need to secure a striker as a priority. Kyle Joseph will be part of that goalscoring solution, arriving from Swansea - though he was on loan at Oxford last season - as will the less than prolific Shayne Lavery, but Critchley will be looking for more firepower. Lavery and new signing Albie Morgan have been lively in pre-season and this feels like a side that will improve as time passes. Hopefully not too much time.
League Two Promotion
I was tempted to go with Mansfield again, and the likes of Wrexham and Stockport are obvious players, but commensurately short in the market. In the end, I've sided with one shortie: Notts County. They were very much in the shadow of Wrexham's Hollywood boys last term but managed a whopping 107 points themselves. Having signed ex-Prem striker David McGoldrick - 20+ goals in League One last season in spite of being 36 - they'll score plenty and should be in the vanguard throughout.
More speculative - a good bit more - is MK Dons. A bit of a yoyo club, the Dons were relegated seven seasons ago to this division and finished third a year later to return to League One. 21st in that section last term sees them here again but it was a bizarre turnaround from their third place finish in L1 the campaign before. Even allowing for that being an overperformance, to get relegated was a shock to most. They have the financial clout, amongst others this season it is fair to say, to strengthen before the window closes and, if necessary, again in January; that makes MK look a bit of value in a highly competitive division. The beauty of League Two of course is that there are three automatic promotion places and play-off positions down to seventh, so plenty of possible outs.
The 2023/24 Wager
Using oddschecker, I pieced together the best prices, which wasn't too difficult as it happened because most of them were with Betway, a firm who won't let me bet 30p on a horse but will happily lay a fair liability on footy. Saying that, they did restrict the last of my eight doubles and trebles, as you can see from the image below. I put the rest on with Hills, whose boost actually made them a better price anyway. Go figure.
[If you just want to make one bet with one bookie, Betway offer the best overall odds at time of writing]
So it's a perm trixie this year: eight doubles and four trebles as per the glamorous image to the right.
This is a highly speculative wager - more so than usual - and it will very possibly return zero, with a miracle jackpot scenario of about £9,600.
But for a season's worth of entertainment for £3 if you want a 25p slice of the action, or whatever stake suits your budget and your gullibility/conviction* (*delete as applicable) in my selections. For that three quid, you'd still be cheering an unlikely - but possible - £96 payoff, and we ought to get at least some sort of run for the pennies with almost any double getting us our money back. Caveat emptor if you follow me in. Obviously.
This one's for the dreamers, the fantasists and the windmill tilters.
Good luck,
Matt
Ps who do you like, and why? Leave a comment below and let us know
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/football.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-08-03 21:58:562023-08-04 08:11:142023/24 Football Season Preview
And so to Friday, the last of four days previewed here, and a day when I'll be in attendance at the track. Us travelling pals' mantra, "The sun always shines and we always win on Goodwood Friday", looks under serious and two-pronged threat this year, however! We start with the staying handicappers in the...
1.50 Goodwood Handicap (2m4f, Class 2, 3yo+)
Two and a half miles up the track from a flip start and then back down again. In the past dozen years, only two horses from the top three in the betting have won, so it's worth taking a swing at something.
Front runners have won two and been placed a further four times since 2009 for a small win and each way profit, while those racing handily have also out-performed compared with horses racing in the second half of the field early. Those patiently ridden types have account for more winners and places but from many more runners, as this handy little QT chart illustrates (4 means led, 1 means held up).
It's no surprise that such a marathon is often won by a predominantly National Hunt or dual purpose trainer.
Tentative favourite is the 2021 winner, Calling The Wind, but he's a stone higher in the ratings and weights - and two years older - so in spite of the outstanding Neil Callan taking the ride, I'm looking elsewhere. Tritonic won over a mile and a half here last year and was a good third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last time. He's not been missed by the market and has a clear chance.
Ian Williams has won this three times since 2008 and saddles Law Of The Sea and Hydroplane. LOTS was just behind Tritonic at Ascot and had legitimate excuses when whacked at Newcastle last time, where he was struck into. He was fourth in the Chester Cup earlier this year on soft ground and looks value at around 16/1. Meanwhile, Hydroplane was sixth in this race last year and a staying on second over two miles at the track in May. He has form on sodden surfaces and is another to consider.
Another dab hand at this sort of gig is Hughie Morrison, whose Quickthorn lagged up in the G1 Goodwood Cup on Tuesday. He won this in 2007 and 2016 and has Vino Victrix, a winner over two miles here last August (good to soft), this time. It's fair to say Vino's form has not been at the same level in three spins so for this season but he's dropped a couple of pounds as a result and it might have been that this was the plan. Won't be a shock winner, and is playable at 16's or so.
2.25 Thoroughbred Stakes (1m, Group 3, 3yo)
Just seven go to post for this mile Group 3 and they're headed by the ultra-impressive Newmarket scorer Nostrum. He made all on quick turf there, and may not get a freebie up top on a slower surface now. But he doesn't need the lead; indeed, that was his first time from the front having previously been prominent in two scores - one at this G3 level - and a Group 1 third in the Dewhurst. If he handles the slower ground, he's much the most likely winner.
According to official ratings, Nostrum is five pounds clear of his field, three runners rated 109 to his 114. They are Bold Discovery, Epictetus and Galeron. Bold Discovery is an Irish raider, trained by Jessica Harrington, and winner of a Listed mile contest last time on good to firm. He's got two pieces of G3 placed form on softer than good from last season and may be overpriced in the 'without the favourite' market.
Frankie rides Epictetus for Johnny and Thady, but this chap has been disappointing in three races since taking a ten furlong Listed on soft at Epsom in April. He was second to Silver Knott in a G3 and then to dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin in the G1 Vertem Futurity last backend, but possibly hasn't trained on. Whether he has or hasn't, I'll let him beat me if he's able to.
Galeron is another who may have peaked in his career already. The Charlie Hills inmate won the hyper-valuable Goffs Million (more than half a mill to the winner) at Irish Champions' Weekend last September, and was a fair fourth then fifth in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas's. But he ran no race in the St James's Palace Stakes and looks opposable.
One who definitely is improving is the Britannia Stakes winner, Docklands, who travelled like a Group horse in that 29-runner handicap to complete a hat-trick this year. A feature of Docklands' ability is his gear change, which was showcased in a small field win two back at Ascot. There, he barrelled away from his rivals in the last quarter mile - note the sectional times from 2-1 and 1-0 in the result below.
That effort was on soft ground and the Britannia was run on good to firm, so there are no going concerns. He's got a bit to find with the favourite on figures but if that one goes forward it could make for an exciting shootout in the final two furlongs with Docklands very likely to close from further back.
Two others in the race, the more interesting one being Knight, a Group 3 seven furlong winner on heavy last backend. However, he flopped in the Greenham and has not been sighted thereafter until now. Watching brief. Montesilvano represents Joseph O'Brien, and went forward in France last time before getting run out of it late; his main contribution here might be to challenge Nostrum for early primacy; the first time tongue tie will need to elicit about a stone and a half of improvement for him to prevail.
This looks a bit of a match between Nostrum and Docklands, the former with class on his side, the latter a progressive and versatile - and worthy - opponent. Docklands is a solid price at around 9/2 for a small sporting wager. Of the remainder, the 16/1 about Bold Discovery is less appealing than the 11/4 betting without the top two in the market.
3.00 Golden Mile Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)
Normally, I'm all about the low draws in this race. In point of fact, on quicker turf I consider it just about the strongest draw bias race in the season. Which may be perceived by some as weird given it's a mile race around a turn; but the big field traditionally favours those charting the shortest route into the lane, even when the going is testing.
I'm sticking to my low draw guns, and devil take the hindmost. Let's begin with Tacarib Bay, who turns out quickly having 'won' the race on the far side (1st of 14 there) in the International on Saturday. I think he's better drawn here, and he both handles soft ground and stays a mile. The 12/1 probably won't last, 10/1 is still acceptable I'd say.
Lattam, drawn one inside Tacarib Bay, deserves to be favourite: he loves wet turf, is a specialist miler and comes here in blistering form. What's not to love? Well, he'll need to get a clear passage with his hold up run style but, with plenty of the races unfolding in the middle of the track, that's less of a concern. Sky opened 9/2, a fifth seven places, so that's nearly money back with six in front of him and the perhaps the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.
A third low drawn mudlark is Revich, bronze medallist in the race last year off a pound lower mark, and from an impossible draw in 15. The first six home that day were drawn 2-1-15-7-4-9 so it really was a terrific effort. He's another hold up type and this will undoubtedly have been the plan. He's 14/1 in a few places, including Sky with their seven places, and is my final dart.
One year the inside stalls will flounder, and it could be this year. But it's still the percentage play with some well suited horses emerging from that section.
3.35 King George Stakes (5f, Group 2, 3yo+)
Back on the straight track and a Group 2 which is one of my personal favourites of the week. That is not to say I've been especially good at finding the winner; no, I just love sprints on fast tracks like Goodwood even if it will be a touch slower than usual with the deeper turf. It's a bit of a specialist's race with only five horses winning since 2014, thanks to Take Cover's brace and Battaash's remarkable four-timer.
Charles Hills, trainer of Battaash, was also responsible for last year's winner, the subsequent Group 1 Royal Ascot scorer, Khaadem. Both those two lads were by Dark Angel, coincidentally. Speaking of coincidences, Hills has two live contenders this time around in the form of Equality and Equilateral - wait, what, really?! Different owners, same stallion - Equiano, hence the similar names.
They've probably both got it to do to beat the brilliant mare, Highfield Princess. Yes, she's been beaten three times this year, but they were all excellent efforts; she's a soft ground five furlong Group 1 winner last term and, for all that she may be drawn away from the best part of the track, is probably a fair enough price at around even money if that's your thing.
It's not really mine, so it will be each way and/or without the favourite instead. The logical place to start on that plan is with the Hills duo and, particularly, Equilateral. Now eight, he's been on the go for 36 career races; the last time he encountered softer than good was in June 2020 when he was runner-up to... Battaash... in the Group 1 King's Stand. Obviously he's three years longer in the tooth now, but that form fits well here. Frankie rides and he's drawn close to the stands rail which has been favoured to the point I write.
Equality has been beaten twice in handicaps at Goodwood and also on soft ground, so I'd be keen to field against him (cue easy win, natch). More interesting to me is Nymphadora, trained by Andrew Balding. Balding is having a fantastic week and this filly's best form is all on the easy side of good and over five furlongs. She's drawn low which might be a concern, however.
The best of the draw - I presume - goes to Ladies Church, trained by Johnny Murtagh. I respect everything he sends across from Ireland but her best form is on good ground. One off the rail is the Clive Cox-trained three-year-old Kerdos, who has plenty to find on the book. He was sent off favourite at York last time, when only sixth behind Nymphadora and, if that run can be overlooked, he has a progressive profile. A tiny play at 25/1 won't hurt the bank too much.
I got stuck into Raasel in the handicap here on Tuesday, and that was expensive. He now doubles back in the Group 2 which, on the face of it, seems odd; but he was second in the race last year, handles give underfoot and has an otherwise excellent track record. He's 28/1 and could outrun those odds.
4.10 Glorious Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 4yo+)
A Group 3 over a mile and a half, older horses only. One horse towers above his field on ratings, the William Haggas-trained Hamish, who was withdrawn from the Group 1 Ascot showpiece last Saturday and now rocks up two grades lower. He carries a three pound impost for his previous achievements, which include four - count 'em! - Group 3's, and second in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. He is versatile regarding run style though was beaten when odds on in a further G3, that on heavy ground and when possibly over the top for the season. In spite of a short price he is the likely winner.
Stablemate Candleford could give him something to think about: he was an impressive winner of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot 2022 but is yet to win in Class 1 company. Mimikyu, for the Gosdens and Frankie Dettori, won the Group 2 Park Hill on good to soft and a novice race on soft, and she will keep running when others have cried enough.
Hard One To Please, a Swedish raider and a cash machine back home, is a hard one to peg. He has a form line with Outbox, rated 103, but was probably value for more than the head margin of victory that day. However, that was a home fixture and this is away; probably not good enough but an interesting runner nevertheless. Likewise, Epic Poet, whose French form puts him in the same postcode as all bar Hamish; he did fluff his opening British line at Newbury a fortnight ago though will presumably come on plenty for that first dance in eight months.
It would take an inspired mind, and an inspired ride from Neil Callan, to envisage Jack Darcy in the winner's enclosure post-race. Could happen but very unlikely.
4.45 Nursery Handicap (6f, Class 2, 2yo)
Not for me, thanks.
Gun to head, Loaded Gun. Andrew Balding has oodles of winners at this track and this meeting, and this chap was a half length third over five Goodwood furlongs two back before winning going away over the same trip on soft at Chester. He's by Magna Grecia, who won the Racing Post Trophy on the soft side as a juvenile, out of Temerity, whose only win came on soft, so he should handle the trip and conditions.
At much bigger prices, Dapper Valley represents another Goodwood trainer in the form of Richard Hannon. He won easily on debut in a Newbury five furlong maiden on soft before finding Listed class a bit too tough twice since. He's not certain to stay or to be good enough, but he's a big enough price - 20/1 as I write - to justify a small guess.
Obviously brutally competitive.
5.20 Coral Handicap (1m3f, Class 3, 3yo)
Another tough race to close the card. Loads of pace, almost all of it drawn outside, is an interesting feature. In the circumstances, it might pay to be patient for all that on the front has historically often been the way to prevail.
The one with soft ground form and a Champions League jockey in Ryan Moore is Nader King, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He's owned by Saeed Suhail and these connections all celebrated a win in this race with Poet's Word in 2016. They did also have Deal A Dollar, only seventh in 2019, and Baritone, for Coolmore this time, third in 2018. Two wins and a third from four runners is impressive. He broke his maiden on soft ground but, perhaps more notably, finished second on soft to a certain King Of Steel, Derby second, King Edward VII winner and King George third. That's a lot of King's in there.
In the longer grass - much longer as he's the outsider of the field - we have Rathgar, a horse with good form on soft and which has been struggling on faster ground recently. He won a nine furlong novice on good to soft here and, by Ulysses, he ought to stay eleven furlongs. Tom Marquand rides, he has the inside stall and tactical pace to sit behind the wide-drawn presumed trailblazers. 33/1 is a very sporting offer.
*
And that, dear friend, is that. There will be a further seven races on Saturday, including the brilliant Stewards' Cup, but I shall be playing footy while nursing a hangover. So allow me to thank you for your company this week, hope sincerely that you've landed on a good one or two, and invite you to consider the geegeez racecards as your digital assistant this weekend (and beyond). If you're not already using them, you can put that right here.
To Thursday, the middle day of five on the Sussex Downs, and another octet of head-scratchers over which to ruminate. The feature is a ten furlong fillies' Group 1, the Nassau Stakes, and a belter it looks, too. We start, though, at 1.50 with the...
1.50 Kincsem Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 3yo)
Mark Johnston won this race just the eight times (!) since 1998, while John Gosden has four scores in the same timeframe. Both have their sons on the license now and both teams have multiple representatives this year, two for John and Thady, and three for Charlie. 23 of 25 winners since since 1998 were returned 12/1 or shorter.
A couple to consider, then, are the 1-2 from a Newmarket July meeting handicap, Killybegs Warrior and Obelix. The latter is two pounds better off for a 3/4 length beating, and he travelled like the best horse before flattening out up the hill. On this slightly easier track, he might be able to reverse the form. Both have shown a good level on softish turf.
Dylan Cunha was a top tier trainer in his native South Africa and is quietly establishing himself in Newmarket. He saddles Silver Sword, ridden by Cunha's countryman, Greg Cheyne. This fella refused to race on his first two starts - where three strikes means you're out - before showing his true colours in good maiden company. He has since stepped forward further in handicaps, waltzing away with a Ponty mile event last time. He's a danger; so too are many others!
2.25 Richmond Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)
Aidan O'Brien has won this Group 2 twice, from nine runners, since 1997, so it's not a race he frequently targets. Clive Cox has a better record: two wins and a further place from five runners. APOB saddles Unquestionable, Cox Jasour, and that pair head the market. Jasour was impressive when scoring in the July Stakes, also a Group 2, last time and though the ground is likely to be quite different here he's clearly a very fast colt.
The once raced winners Vandeek and Sketch are 'could be anything' types, with no subsequent runners from their maiden scores to test the form at time of writing. The bubble looks to have burst with Asadna, who at one point had the clock watchers purring but hasn't yet backed up the mighty impression of his first day at school.
3.00 Gordon Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 3yo)
Aidan has run seven horses in this established St Leger trial in the past ten years, winning twice and with all bar one of the septet making the frame. That makes Espionage an obvious favourite and of equally obvious interest. A head second in the Group 1 Criterion International at Saint Cloud last autumn, he's won his sole 2023 start, in the Listed Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. Espionage was easy to back that day, perhaps hinting that there was plenty more to work with as the season progresses. If that's right, he's going to take a lot of beating.
His rivals include The King's Royal Ascot winner - Desert Hero - as well as the third from the Queen's Vase, Chesspiece, the third from the King Edward VII Stakes, Artistic Star, and the winner of the Golden Gates Handicap, Burdett Road. The other to line up, Canberra Legend, was fifth in the Hampton Court Stakes, meaning Espionage was the only one not to run at the Royal meeting. He could be a nice horse in the making and, with a fair bit of pace likely on despite the small field, there should be no hard luck stories.
3.35 Nassau Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 3yo+ fillies & mares)
A Group 1 and a field befitting of the top level. Nashwa is a three-time G1 winner, including this race last year and the Falmouth Stakes over a mile last time, and she handles soft conditions well as she showed when second in the G1 Prix de l'Opera last October. In opposition is the best filly in France, Blue Rose Cen, a winner of her last five races. That quintet includes the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend, the French 1000 Guineas (Poule d'Essai des Pouliches) and the French Oaks (Prix de Diane), the latter being the third G1 on Nashwa's palmarès, achieved a year prior.
Blue Rose Cen tends to race handily whereas Nashwa is a little more versatile. In a race where there is no clear pace angle - though the doubly-represented Coolmore team may send Never Ending Story forward - the French filly may get first run on Nashwa.
Is there anything else in the field to lay it up to this tip top pair? Probably not, though Al Husn has been progressive at a lower level, winning six of her last seven starts. Indeed, her most recent verdict was over none other than Nashwa, on the Newcastle tapeta at Group 3 level. Nashwa went on to win that G1 Falmouth next time up and may have been prepping on the sand. Nevertheless, Al Husn does have one up on her more illustrious rival; so, too, does Above The Curve, who won the Group 2 Prix Corrida earlier this year. She had race fitness on her side there, and Nashwa is expected to be a different proposition now.
This looks a crackerjack of a match to watch but is less appetising from a betting perspective with the market looking about right on the top two and nothing else holding any appeal.
4.10 Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap (7f, Class 2, 2yo)
Nursery handicaps are not my thing. This one has, in recent times, typically been won by a horse lugging nine stone-plus and emerging from a lowish - but not very low - stall. The 91-rated Balon d'Or will jump from box ten and is set to shoulder 9-09, ten pounds clear of his field on ratings, meaning everything else carries less than nine stone!
A pair on 8-13 and berthed in three and six respectively are Bits And Bobs and Mission To Moon. Jim and Fitri Hay got on the scoresheet on day one at their favourite meeting, and they have Phone Tag from stall seven, whose trainer, Hugo Palmer, does well with handicap debutants.
But, honestly, I don't know.
4.45 Buccellati Handicap (1m, Class 3, 3yo)
Another big field mile handicap where the percentage play is to side with inside drawn runners (though that was a disastrous ploy in the fillies' mile handicap on Tuesday). It is noteworthy how little advertised front end speed there is in this twenty horse herd which could make for even more hard luck stories than normal if they stack and pack up. There's a good chance that Joe Fanning goes on atop Charlie Johnston's Cancan In The Rain, and he might be able to control the tempo in a bid to make all.
Skysail was a course and distance winner in May on his first try at a mile. He returns having been second last time out in a similar race and, if not too far from the pace, could again go close. The favourite, Isle Of Jura, appears well drawn in four in his hat-trick bid: he's been geared down when winning the last twice and may be a cut above this lot. He's probably the bet, and 10/3 currently doesn't look unfair.
5.20 British EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes (7f, Class 2, 2yo)
Nope. Next.
5.55 World Pool Handicap (5f, Class 3, 3yo)
High draws dominated the straight track races on Tuesday (when I'm writing this), so the forward-going Democracy Dilemma could be a play from the stands rail position. Hollie Doyle is two from three on David Evans' speedster.
If they go too hard, perhaps the next highest-drawn, Desert Games, will take advantage. He's been consistent in defeat, and in fact I tried to buy him at last month's July Sales (he made too much dough, alas). Nibras Racing had more cash than me and he now runs for them and trainer Hilal Kobeissi. Victory here would get them a third of their investment back, and a fantastic afternoon in the sun (regardless of the weather) to boot.
Desperate Hero is a third high-drawn runner with chances: he all but won a valuable Racing League prize last week and comes here fit to fire from what looks an optimal draw and run style combination. Former geegeez-sponsored rider and friend of the site David Probert will steer.
On to Day 2, Wednesday, at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or Glorious Goodwood to me and probably you. One of the features of the week, if not the feature, is the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at 3.35, and that clash of the generations and the sexes is supported by a trio of 'shoulder' races either side. The action gets underway at 1.50 with the...
1.50 Coral Handicap (1m4f, Class 2, 3yo only)
A three-year-old weight-for-ability contest over twelve furlongs would not be my 'go to' punting puzzle. This, however, is not your average such race. Indeed, previous winners Pether's Moon and Dartmouth ended up high class Group winners and are now enjoying careers as stallions; so it can be an instructive affair. Some pointers pulled from the trends at horseracebase.com as well as our own Goodwood Day 2 trends:
A low draw has typically been advantageous for all that two of the last four winners emerged from double digit berths. The top three in the betting have fared better than expectations, and horses finishing first or second last time have also bossed things. Team Johnston has won three of the last ten and five since 2008, none of them returning shorter than 6/1: they are triply represented. Sir Michael Stoute also has five winners and another eight placed from 22 starters, while Charlie Appleby has a winner and two places from six starters.
Horses last racing at Newmarket's July course or Ascot have much the best record, though those from Newmarket have offered a touch more value.
It's a really tough race to call, for me at least, with virtually the entire field capable of more than they've demonstrated to date; so at the prices perhaps the Sir Michael Stoute angle is the one. His Fox Journey is 15/2 in a place. But I have no clue really.
2.25 Oak Tree Stakes (7f, Group 3, 3yo+)
A pretty strong draw bias race is the Oak Tree Stakes, the winners since 1997 emerging from the following stalls: 2-2-1-10-3-6-1-5-10-10-9-2-2-9-10-1-1-1-6-6-1-5-1-2-2-2. There's a lot of 1's and 2's in that sequence without us thinking we've found the oracle (plenty of 9's and 10's to keep feet on the ground). But 14 of those 26 winners did exit one of the two lowest traps, and they accrued better than 51 units profit collectively.
Internationalangel was a neck second from stall 10 last year when a 66/1 chance, and has box two this time; geegeez-sponsored Marco Ghiani rides. Oscula represented Nick Bradley Racing when winning last year and jumped from stall 2. This year, the same connections have Fast Response exiting the inside gate: lucky Nick.
It's been a fair race for overseas runners, too, specifically from the French yard of Francois Rohaut: he saddled the winner three years running between 2015 and 2017. Add to that Samahram, trained by Francois-Henri Graffard, who would have won with a clear passage last year; and 25/1 Rocques who was fourth of 17 in 2019. Alas, the overseas raiders have had a torrid time at the draw, Samedi Rien getting stall 13 and Sicilian Defense drawing 15 of 16. Only the luckless Matilda Picotte fared worst, with the car park post position.
Breege has stall 3 and was second in a 7f Group 3 here last August. She handles soft ground and is a definite contender.
3.00 Molcomb Stakes (5f, Group 3, 2yo)
Rapid fire sprint action and low may be slightly favoured in terms of stall positions. Big Evs has the highest gate but he's lightning from the start and wasn't stopping at Royal Ascot when making all in the Windsor Castle. He almost overcame an even worse draw at Redcar on debut so that is unlikely to be his undoing. Kyllian is a highly legitimate challenger but Big Evs has achieved plenty more so far and is less exposed after only two career starts.
Barnwell Boy is probably better than he showed when midfield behind Big Evs - he won his maiden here over six - but it's hard to see him reversing places with the winner that day. The rest need to grow a fifth leg on form, but all are entitled to improve to one degree or another.
Big Evs is favourite in my book and about 6/4, but he's 5/2 with the actual layers right now. That looks wrong for all that he has to prove he handles very different underfoot conditions.
3.35 Sussex Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo+)
The feature of the day is a mile showdown between the Classic generation, represented by the Irish 2000 Guineas / St James's Palace Stakes / Eclipse winner, Paddington, and the Fillies' Mile / Coronation Stakes / Prix Jacques le Marois winner, Inspiral.
As a three-year-old, Paddington gets weight from Inspiral, but only four pounds because she is a filly. They have had hugely differing campaigns, Paddington lining up for the sixth time in 2023 here while Inspiral has just her second spin of the year.
And then Paddington has recorded a six-timer improving from run to run while Inspiral has been a touch inconsistent. On her best form she's a danger to the three-year-old champ, especially if he feels the effects of his busy campaign. But there was no sign of fatigue as Paddington toughed it out against a strong stayer in Emily Upjohn last time. That one clunked in the King George at the weekend and it is certainly not impossible that the effort exerted by the winner that day could flatten his energies here.
Inspiral looks a touch over-priced at 4/1 given the busy schedule Coolmore's flagbearer has maintained hitherto.
But there is an outlying scenario where neither of the obvious two turn up. It's unlikely but the picture I've tried to paint above is that it's not extremely unlikely. After all, look what happened to Auguste Rodin and Emily Upjohn on Saturday. Who, then, might be able to take advantage of such a scenario?
With Chindit having blown out twice at this track, albeit on much faster turf, Aldaary perhaps preferring a straight track as when he won the Balmoral Handicap up the straight mile at Ascot, French raider Facteur Cheval is interesting at a price. He handles soft ground - naturellement as it's always soft in France - and, though he's been beaten three times by the same horse recently, he does have a solid turn of foot. Maxime Guyon takes over from Gerald Mosse and perhaps will time his challenge better than the veteran has done.
Charyn ran a bold race when third in the St James's Palace Stakes but he, too, has had a hard campaign and might favour a shorter trip; that said, with no obvious pace angle in the field it may ride more like seven furlongs.
The obvious form horse is Paddington and if he turns up as we know him, he wins. But there are reasons to think he might not, in which case Inspiral is certainly worth a small bet at 4/1. Each way and/or without the favourite players might look to Facteur Cheval as a sporting alternative in a fascinating and high class contest, on paper at least.
4.10 Alice Keppel Fillies' Conditions Stakes (5f, Class 2, 2yo)
The fifth renewal of this, features of the first four being top two-year-olds trainers and commensurately short prices. After that, I'm afraid you're pretty much on your own.
4.45 British EBF Fillies' Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 3yo+)
A race in its eighth year. Ralph 'Raif' Beckett has won two, from just three runners; three-year-olds have won four of the first seven (they've also been responsible for 37 of 63 runners - near enough three-fifths - so not much of note there, except that they've arguably underperformed).
Red Raif runs La Isla Mujeres, who will probably race handily, a feature of three of the four winners. She might offer a fair run for money at 9/2, though I clearly haven't scoured the form with a fine-toothed comb: caveat emptor.
5.20 World Pool Handicap (7f, Class 3, 3yo+)
More like it. A big field brings draw into play, sort of. This has been won in the past ten years in two ways: either an inside post racing handily or making all, or a middle to wide draw being waited with and pouncing late. Looking at the pace map there are quite a few whose recent run style profile does not adhere to that very blunt identikit sketch:
We might give Dark Thirty a point, and then perhaps the likes of Haziym, Baileysgutfeeling, Classic, Farasi Lane and, perhaps, Darkness if ridden patiently, before looking at some actual form. Plenty of that list have shown little to nothing recently, though Haziym is tumbling from a high mark earned in France. Two which have run well lately are Darknessand Dark Thirty, though they're very far from dark Dark horses, if you see what I mean. Splitting a pound between the pair ought to give you one to shout early and hopefully one to challenge him late in a race that appears to have a fair bit of dead wood.
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It looks tenuous tickle territory pretty much all day. Paddington will shock nobody by winning but he is opposable with Inspiral; I am cheering Big Evs at value odds against Kyllian et al; and after that maybe dutching Breege and Fast Response will get a couple of quid back. The rest is even more guesswork than usual on my part!
The wonderful carnival of racing that is the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or always 'Glorious Goodwood' to many, commences on Tuesday and there is a glut of top class racing and, indeed, races full stop. Eight contests punctuate the opening day, beginning with a big field five furlong sprint handicap and headlined later on by the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, arguably the best seven-furlong race in the British calendar, and the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.
My approach this week will be more short hand than has been historically the case, with one race previewed in depth and the remainder given the pointer treatment: I'll suggest what I think are some of the more material factors to consider in your own deliberations. I might lob in a selection or three where I feel that's appropriate. Anyway, you'll see what I mean as we proceed...
The going is currently good to soft, good in places, with plenty of rain forecast. The latest live weather station readings are here.
1.40 Coral Handicap (5f Handicap 4yo+, Class 2)
15 runners in what I suspect will be wet ground. Draw and pace will be factors but so too will an ability to handle the conditions of a big field and soft turf. These are more exposed runners so Instant Expert is a decent port of call. One horse stands out there: last year's Group 2 King George Stakes second over course and distance, Raasel.
The winner that day was Khaadem, subsequently a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner, and Raasel has been running very well in Group company this season. His Goodwood record is 112 and he handles all going. If there is a draw bias it might be towards low numbers, so trap four will be right in the mix. My only slight niggle is his general waited with run style, but he's tractable in that regard and could get a slightly more forward ride here.
Look for horses that can handle, the going, grade and, if they all go, field size. Then look for bookmakers offering bonus places!
2.15 British EBF Maiden Stakes (6f maiden, 2yo, Class 2)
Not really a race I know anything about. Perhaps look to Goodwood trainers such as Charlie Johnston (taking over from his dad but well advertised as having plotted a squad for this meeting), Andrew Balding and, to a lesser extent, Karl Burke and Charles Hills. Richard Hannon runs a lot of horses in Glorious Goodwood 2yo non-handicaps and occasionally hits the target, but he is expensive to follow (-55% ROI since 2016).
Nine of the last ten winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter, though the other was 100/1! The balance of probabilities is that the market will have this winner in its crosshairs.
2.50 Chesterfield Cup Handicap (1m2f Handicap, 4yo+, Class 2)
Team Johnston have won this four times since 2014 and usually at a price, so Outbreak is of immediate interest. He's up in trip from a mile to ten furlongs but was a length third over this range in a valuable handicap on the All-Weather Finals day consolation card. Showing at 14/1 with Sky - six places - that's plausibly playable on the trainer angle alone. The going may make things more testing, which is a concern, but he's a square price to have a cut at.
Moktasaab was third in this last year off a five pound higher mark and will benefit from a waiting ride from Hayley Turner, a fine exponent of such tactics. He's quite likely to have been 'jobbed up' for this and is 12/1 with the same firm and the same place concession.
3.25 Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2, 2yo)
The first Group race of the week is a two year old event over seven furlongs. Winners of this have typically been strong market fancies, though it was a 14/1 shot that prevailed a year ago.
It's a bit too tricky for me.
4.00 Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2, 3yo+)
An excellent race in prospect, and a clear and obvious favourite in Kinross. He was second in the race last year when ridden by Frankie Dettori, and that man remains in the saddle, as he has been in three subsequent wins the most recent of which was the Group 1 Champions Sprint over six good to soft furlongs. He ran well when third in the July Cup last time, again over six, and looks ready to return to seven-eighths. I think he'll win for all that that's a mightily unoriginal observation.
Of his rivals, I am not yet convinced by Isaac Shelby, whose second in the French 2000 Guineas has yet to be backed up by this lad. That said, he's had only the one spin since, when fourth to Paddington in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot; the thinking may be that a true run mile stretches him whereas he can use his turn of foot over seven. Still, he's got it to prove, to me at least.
Pogo has plenty of classy runs to his name which, being a seven-year-old, he's had more chance to achieve. He seems to go on any ground and seven looks his best trip. I can see him running a nice race without having the class or youth to beat them all.
Al Suhail was less than three lengths behind Kinross in the G2 Park Stakes over seven at Donny last September and has picked up a packet of prize money in Dubai at the trip this spring. He ran a creditable race over six at Royal Ascot and can step forward again here. The Park Stakes third was on soft as is most of his best form.
A possible lone pace angle is Audience, who is a steady improver this season for the Gosden squad. He won two back in a fair handicap and then bolted up on seasonal debut this term in a Group 3 a month ago, Jumby his closest pursuer at a distance of two lengths. There are not many miles on his clock and, if he handles the ground - unraced on softer than good - he could be hard to peg back.
That was Jumby's sole defeat in his last five starts, progressing from a Class 3 conditions race to a Group 2 score in the Hungerford last time. He has it to prove on the slow ground but has an otherwise attractive profile.
Closest to 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean twice at the tail end of last season was Indestructible, and he opened his portfolio this year with a score in the Craven Stakes. He's since been battered in both the 2000G and the St J's P and has a good bit to prove at this point in terms of whether he's trained on (and whether his form is good enough anyway).
Winner of the Vintage Stakes last year, over the same course and distance, and also Group 2, was Marbaan. He returns to familiar climes then and may end up the pick of the three-year-olds. That said, Holguin has soft ground form aplenty and comes here off the back of a Listed 7f win at Chester last time. This, naturally, is a step up - two steps up - but conditions fit.
The best horse in this race on official figures, RPR's and Topspeed numbers is Kinross, and he also gets pretty much optimal conditions. Frankie needs to guard against tactical pitfalls in a race where the progressive Audience may get a soft lead; but he rarely misfires on the bigger stages and I think he'll win.
He's an unexciting price but it's hard to find an alternative bet: things look competitive for the places. Audience should get the run of it, while Holguin and Al Suhail are well suited to the conditions; meanwhile, Pogo is a warhorse at this level and Jumby may not be done with his upgrades yet.
But they're all a few pounds behind last year's second, KINROSS.
4.35 Goodwood Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 3yo+)
This looks very competitive indeed with four horses separated by one pound on official ratings. The least exposed is the Gold Cup winner from Royal Ascot, Courage Mon Ami, and that is reflected in his top of the market status. Coltrane, proven on softer turf, where CMA is not, looks a playable alternative to the jolly, though he does have a tendency to find one too good. He's hyper consistent.
At bigger prices Tashkhan stays well and loves the mud, but he has a good bit to find on the form; and Giavellotto is another who could feature. Very tricky.
5.05 Coral Fillies' Handicap (1m, Class 3, 3yo+)
You very likely need to be drawn low to win this. So far, first place has gone to the fillies drawn 1, 5, 5, 7, 15, 2, 3. The winner from 15 ended up winning the next season's Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot so was very smart. Unless there's an equally smart one in here I'd be staying low.
A feature of this field is there looks to be a ton of early speed on, so I'm now favouring low and midfield to held up. That gives me a tentative small stakes shortlist of Back See Daa, Miss Mojito and System (four length 5th in this last year).
Good luck, and don't blame me if trap 20 wins!
5.35 World Pool Fillies' Handicap (6f, Class 3, 3yo+)
If it's genuinely soft, high draws will have it all to do as the heatmap below outlines.
A handy position also looks helpful, which brings in plenty:
Kitai is a Johnston runner that fits the bill, but it's clearly tricky trappy truly treacherous territory.
Now I know what it feels like, writes Tony Stafford. Coming to the end of my eighth decade, I can now honestly tell you what it is to experience pain. Thinking back to my football days, a broken wrist and a regularly sprained ankle were about the size of it.
I’m sure every woman past puberty has been doubled up on a regular basis and most sportsmen – none more so than jockeys – accept it as part and parcel of their lives. Sorry Keith - and boxers!
But I’ve poodled along and, despite the odd bit of skin cancer on my face and Type 2 diabetes for the past 15 years which has realistically only involved taking the tablets (and not passing up biscuits and cakes), have had a trouble-free run. My friend George Hill, who has had his share of scary medical issues over the years, always says I’m made of tungsten. The tungsten has run out.
It started a few months ago with a twinge in the corner of the mouth, usually when eating. That developed to such an extent that I went to a dentist to see if there was a problem. Nothing on the X-ray.
The pain got worse – not permanent, just intermittent concentrated bursts for seconds or minutes, often while eating in company with friends at the races or in restaurants with my wife. How embarrassing! Ask the editor!
I finally booked an appointment with the doctor for last Thursday but went to watch Ray Tooth’s Glen Again at Sandown the previous evening. It was after his race, trying to have something in the owners’ room that the pain got unbearable.
The nice guy who monitors the room and likes Chelsea FC and Surrey CCC said: “If you need painkillers go to the First Aid room in the main stand.” I did, to be greeted with a: “Painkillers won’t make a difference. I think I know what you have.”
To my shame, I didn’t take down her name, but this highly capable woman told me that she had been originally a dental nurse and for 30 years a paramedic. She was clearly the boss, working very congenially it seemed with her two male colleagues: “It’s trigeminal neuralgia.” Relief, I know what it is. I’ll tell the doctor tomorrow.
Then I Googled it after I left her room and, for relief, read horror as I realised I will have this condition for the rest of my life.
I slunk to the surgery on Thursday, telling the GP the symptoms and it took about ten seconds for him to repeat the dreaded name. “I’m pretty sure it’s trigeminal neuralgia, but it’s not entirely certain. We’ll prescribe the usual drug for the condition. Start with one a day for a few days, then go to two.
Thursday, Friday, I had one each day. Saturday, I went to Ascot, had the good fortune to be in a box where the food was laid out in glorious, nay luxurious profusion. To that point, all I’d managed to get down me from Wednesday had been a couple of coffees and a diet coke, but anything that involved access to the right-hand side of my mouth was the inevitable trigger for another shooting pain.
On Wednesday evening, post paramedic, I was trying to put away a little soft dessert, to no avail, and recently retired trainer Harry Dunlop hove into view. I was keen to ask him what he was doing now and just as I began, the pain came at maximum force. All I could do was stand there like a moron; mouth open trying to stave off the agony. Kindly, with an apologetic smile, he moved away.
So what is trigeminal neuralgia? It stems from the trigeminal nerve, the biggest nerve in the brain. That sends signals of pain to the face, ear, upper and lower jaw and teeth. When it gets damaged for whatever reason, the neuralgia follows.
The literature says that the sharp pain, like an electric shock, can be induced by talking, smiling, chewing, brushing your teeth, washing your face, a light touch, shaving (or putting on make-up – pass), swallowing, kissing, a cool breeze or air conditioning, head movements, vibrations, such as walking or travelling in a car. If that catalogue wasn’t comprehensive enough, it can happen spontaneously with no trigger at all.
Looks like I’ll have to change many of the things I thought I could do!
The literature suggests it can never be cured, the medication – a smaller dose, but the same that is given to epilepsy patients, great news eh - can help ease or even stave it off for periods, but it’s always lurking in the background. A bit like the tablets I must take for the diabetes.
If you’d have asked me yesterday morning how I felt, it was still at stage one. I was beginning to see why patients with this condition can go into depression or even worse. I won’t. At Ascot, I drank a coffee without incident, but thinking soup would be the only sensible option, I asked if they had any and a nice bowl of tomato was put in front of me.
I needed two goes. The first when I managed three spoonfuls; the second, a third of a bowl, before the wave of pain sailed in. That was game, set and match and after the King George I went straight home.
Yesterday, though, the fourth day of medication and the second with the full daily dose of two tablets, I thought I would try to drink my soup rather than eat in the conventional way, for lunch. That worked. For dinner, a Tesco Fish Pie, spooned minutely so that it took 25 minutes to consume, also went without a problem, although two or three times, the hint was there. So, you pause, take even more care for the positioning of the next morsel. For now, I’m still clear.
The menu is to go back for a blood test tomorrow (Tuesday) and see the doctor again on Thursday week. As I write this, for the first time in weeks I’m feeling optimistic. Maybe the tungsten is still in there somewhere, but boy does it hurt when that shockwave of pain comes!
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Two years ago, I sat down – eating again, in the days when I could – having a bite before racing at Brighton racecourse and for the first time, met and had a chat with Owen Burrows. He was clearly anxious about his future as Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum had recently died and the entire Shadwell Estate Company organisation was very much up in the air.
He told me: “There’s a big meeting in Dubai next week and all the trainers are worried that the Sheikh’s daughter Sheikha Hissa and the rest of the family won’t be inclined or even able to keep it going.”
At that time most of Owen’s horses ran in the blue and white Hamdan livery and with the prospect of massive numbers of mares, horses in training and young stock on their way to market, it was understandable the uncertainty, indeed trepidation, that all the Shadwell trainers were feeling.
Project forward two years to Saturday July 29th 2023 and within 25 minutes, Owen’s older generation horses in the Shadwell ownership collected two big prizes. The four-year-old Alflaila, in his first run since last autumn, made it four wins in a row and six from 13 career, in the £70k to the winner Sky Bet Stakes at York.
Then at Ascot in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, his Hukum picked up almost exactly ten times that in beating last year’s Irish Derby winner Westover after a sustained battle. Jim Crowley, used to winning big races as recently as last year on Baaed, expressed great joy at picking up this massive pot with a six-year-old entire, whose tally over five seasons’ racing is 11 from 17. At six, he matches dual winner Swain and triple heroine Enable, the only previous horses of that age to win the race in its 73-year history.
This was a second flop of the year for Derby and Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin, whose sudden capitulation before the home turn after which Ryan Moore looked after him, coasting home a long way behind, was a shock, no doubt especially to connections. Minute medical checks will be taken, but Auguste Rodin was not the only disappointment in the race.
Emily Upjohn, who gave Paddington such a brave fight in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown three weeks earlier, probably left her race on the Esher slopes, and never looked like getting Frankie Dettori a last King George winner, finishing 27 lengths behind the first two in seventh.
The Classic generation form was given a small nudge by King Of Steel, second in the Derby clear of the rest and an easy Royal Ascot winner. For a while it looked as though Kevin Stott was bringing the Amo Racing/ Roger Varian representative with a telling run, but he weakened and had to be content with an honourable third.
Tough stuff this Group 1 racing, especially in soft ground. Hukum is tough and Owen Burrows knows how to keep his golden oldies going.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Hukum_KingGeorgeAscot_July2023.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-07-31 05:40:352024-01-04 20:38:48Monday Musings: A Smack in the Mouth
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