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Luna Lux: Another Cookie?

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In November 2017, when we were all younger and many of us were better looking, I embarked on a jolly boys’ outing to northern France. But this wasn’t your average lads’ weekend away; no, this was a sortie to the sales – a half-cooked fantasy gaining momentum through peer group pressure!

Coquelicot, bought as a yearling at Arqana in November 2017

Coquelicot, bought as a yearling at Arqana in November 2017

The innocence of (relative) youth, allied to one too many croissants during a classroom session with Ron, a master of the catalogue, led to us looking at a few yearling fillies at the Arqana November sale, and subsequently securing one of that small group.

She had an emerging sire on her page, and a proven producing mare. The filly we bought was named Coquelicot and she’s now seven, rising eight. So how did it go?

As is the way with such long-term projects, progress was not linear. Our plan was for her to be dual purpose, having a few spins on the level before her hurdling career and then back to flat handicaps later on.

As it has panned out, that’s exactly what she’s done, though not exactly as we envisaged. A growing pain as a two-year-old scuppered her early flat runs and, instead, she ran in ‘junior bumpers’ – National Hunt Flat races for three-year-olds.

On 20th November 2019, a day shy of two years after we acquired her, Coquelicot – Cookie – made her debut in a fillies’ junior bumper at Warwick. In a field of ten, she was sent off 11/2 and, turning for home on the business lap, she looked like tailing herself off.

My first racecourse thought with any syndicate horse is always, “please don’t be useless”, and here those fears seemed well founded. But wait, what’s this? After getting tapped for toe and looking like falling out of camera shot, she found her racing gear and motored home... for second – behind her Anthony Honeyball stablemate, Belle de Manech (also bought at Arqana).

We were delighted: we had a racehorse! But that was just the beginning of an odyssey which has yet to end. Another second place, this time at Newbury, was followed by wins at Taunton, Huntingdon and – memorably, as Covid took a grip on the nation – in Listed company at Kempton, rounding out a remarkably successful bumper season and incubating some hot hurdle dreams through those warm locked down summer nights.

Cookie’s debut season over hurdles was, erm, disappointing, to say the least. The problem was she didn’t really make a hurdle shape over a hurdle. It was more of a snooker table shape, in spite of extensive schooling. And yet still she wasn’t beaten far: in 2nd, 3rd twice and finally 4th, she was never more than eight and a half lengths behind the winner.

The following season, on 3rd November 2021 and having had a maiden jaunt on the flat at Nottingham just a week before, Cookie won her handicap debut over three miles at Chepstow. But she wasn’t really right for some reason in the 2021/22 campaign and just one further effort followed, a valiant second to a good – and tough – mare in a valuable handicap hurdle at Hereford (that’s easy for me to say).

Then, last year, it all came together again. Cookie once more began on the level at Nottingham – finishing one place and a couple of lengths closer than she had a year prior in the same race – before heading to Ascot for the three mile handicap hurdle being staged this weekend. Under an inspired Rex Dingle she led them a merry dance and gave her owners – including yours true – one of the days of their lives.

Incredibly, she was still not done, rocking up next at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and delivering a similar verdict in similar fashion, this time with Aidan Coleman doing the steering. Next stop was Kempton the day after Boxing Day and here she gave best only to a well-handicapped mare in Glimpse Of Gala, still collecting up five grand for her second place.

To this year and, after a slightly flat effort in a £100,000 handicap hurdle where she perhaps had too much use made of her against a hotly contested early pace, she reverted to flat races. One more run was needed to qualify for a handicap mark on the level and, that box duly ticked at Southwell, she returned to Nottingham’s familiar turf in gloriously wet conditions.

Under Andrea Atzeni, Cookie just kept rolling all the way up the straight, eventually bashing her closest pursuer by an easy four lengths. She’d have doubled up at Pontefract on her next start, too, but for a difficult transit; and she was again close up in fourth – beaten just three-quarters of a length – at Ascot in a race where her stamina strengths were not brought to the fore.

Her debut this season was at Newmarket in a £15,000 handicap where she ran second to an old warrior, with nine lengths back to the third and another nine to the fourth…

...and on Monday she tried Listed company for the first time over hurdles, in a three mile mares' race at the same track where she claimed her Listed bumper win, Kempton. Unbelievably, she made all to win unchallenged, from a mare rated 10lb higher than her, by six lengths! Now we have to consider raising our sights still further and have the Grade 2 Warfield Mares' Hurdle at Ascot in January on the agenda.

At some point, though we have only one eye on it just now, she will go to the breeding shed and she’ll be a valuable proposition there. First, though, she will have further opportunities to add to a record of eight wins and seven seconds from 23 career starts; she’s only twice been out of the first four in her life, and one of those was a fifth place effort. She is the sort of horse any owner, regardless of depth of resources, dreams of.

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And so here we are again. No trip to France this time but what was lost in being up close and personal in Deauville was more than gained by time with the videos and the catalogue; and we had the best in the business, Highflyer Bloodstock, on the ground across La Manche.

A shortlist was drawn up, a budget established, and our agent set to work. Tessa Greatrex, one of the Highflyer three (along with Anthony Bromley and David Minton), loved a filly whose page was impossible to ignore so loaded was it with Black Type – an indicator that members of the family on the maternal side have performed well, either winning or placing, in Pattern races.

Vetting sailed through, the hammer fell at our very top price of €50,000 and, rather than the usual buyer’s remorse, I am still cock a whoop at the filly we’ve secured. So allow me to introduce you to LUNA LUX. Here she is, arriving at Potwell Farm.

 

 

And here she is meeting her new mates. I love the way she handles herself with quiet authority. Note, she's a yearling in a field with mostly two-year-olds which is why she looks a little smaller than some.

Luna Lux is by Masked Marvel out of Black Luna, and she has a year younger half-brother by Doctor Dino.

Masked Marvel was a very good three-year-old, winning the St Leger by an easy three lengths, and has a National Hunt pedigree to die for: by Montjeu out of a very high class German-bred mare. His first 2yo’s hit the racetrack in 2018, so his oldest crop are now only seven.

He can already boast the likes of Grade 1 winners Teahupoo and Sel Jem, Cheltenham Festival winner Maskada (who, incidentally, finished third behind Coquelicot the day Cookie made her debut), the rapidly improving Heltenham, Aintree Grade 1 second Marvel de Cerisy, the smart French mare La Danza, and nine-time (!) winner Geromino.

He has a 43% winners to NH runners ratio so far (20 individual winners from 47 horses, according to Racing Post’s database) which, when you consider most of his progeny to have raced are yet to reach their peak, is impressive; and he’s had 52 wins from 285 runs overall under National Hunt rules (18% strike rate).

That puts him third overall amongst all NH stallions to have had at least 250 runners in the past five years! And, though it’s not really relevant in this context, backing all Masked Marvel’s on all starts would have delivered a 17% ROI at Betfair SP – 49 points profit.

 

 

So far so (very) good. But what of Luna Lux’s mum, Black Luna? Well, she was a very, very good race mare indeed. She had 18 races over obstacles, eleven hurdles and seven chases, winning six and placing on another six occasions.

Her wins included a 2m2f Listed hurdle, a 2m6f steeplechase and, on her final start, a twenty length demolition of a conditions field in a 2m4f hurdle. She was also second in a Listed chase on her penultimate start.

Black Luna is by Soldier Of Fortune, the same sire as Coquelicot, and her page is awash with Black Type. Her dam, Back The Winner, was Listed placed herself and, as well as Black Luna, threw Jazz In Montreux, an eight time National Hunt winner including at Grade 3 and twice at Listed level. And, further down the page, is the name Hiddenvalley Lake, well known to devotees of the winter game.

 

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So Luna Lux is bred for this job, all right. She was born and raised at Maulepaire, one of the best farms in France.

 

 

And this week she made her way to Potwell Farm, home of Anthony Honeyball Racing, where she’ll be given time to settle in and get over the strains of the sales.

Thereafter, she’ll be broken in and lightly trained with a view to making her debut in 2025. If you think that’s a long way off, consider that it will be 2024 in 39 days’ time!

I’ve syndicated her into tenth shares and she sold out to existing syndicate members within a week.

Like Coquelicot, because of Luna Lux's pedigree, she'll be a valuable broodmare down the line almost regardless of how her racing career goes.

She may or may not be as good, and as fun, as Cookie - then again, maybe she will! - and it will be an incredible journey finding out.

Matt

Roving Reports: Pointless

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“The road to the Superbowl is long, and pointless.”

The Simpsons fans among you will recognize this line from the said Superbowl episode where various misdemeanors happen, including Homer having fake tickets (which appear to be printed on crackers), then getting locked up in Superbowl jail, getting busted out by Dolly Parton (no pun intended) and finally ending up in the winning team’s locker room, writes David Massey.

There’s been no winning team at Fakenham on my last two visits over the past few weeks, I can tell you, but the road there has indeed seemed both long, and as it turned out, pointless.

Let me start by saying I’m certainly not knocking Fakenham at all, a track I’ve extolled the virtues of on many an occasion, but circumstances have made things difficult this autumn. (It isn’t winter until December, whatever the weather feels like.)

Fakenham’s first meeting took place at the very beginning of November and, filled with the joys that lay ahead, was picked up at 9.30am from Bingham, midway between Nottingham and Grantham, for my lift to the track. The same old routine ensued on the way there; a McDs’breakfast at Long Sutton, plenty of football and racing chat with driver Daren, and of course the Radio 2 10.30 music quiz. Not Popmaster any more though, not since Ken Bruce moved to pastures new, but the lesser imitation Ten To The Top. Daren used to get a six-point start on Popmaster; not any more he doesn’t, with the new quiz far more random given the incremental scoring system.

So far so good then. All very familiar and all’s well as we reach the track in plenty of time. The weather forecast doesn’t look as good as it did earlier, with some hefty showers now forecast around racetime. We’ll deal with it as we have to if it comes.

In the meantime, a visit to the home-made cake stall is obligatory; two slices of lemon drizzle (one for the wife, before you accuse me of having them both) and a tremendous sausage roll to go with my lunch. This is what courses are missing.

I’m with the S&D firm, called in to work the rails at the last minute as business is expected to be good for the first fixture of the year. We get betting an hour beforehand and as ever, it’s slow to begin with. Then, a spaceship appears overhead.

Well, it feels a bit like that scene in Independence Day when the aliens arrive on Earth and it all goes very dark, but it is nothing more than a massive black cloud, which right now, is worse. It envelops the track and everybody dives for their wet weather gear. Sadly, I’m too late. The rain comes in very quickly, the wind whips up and the rain is hitting me horizontally as I try desperately to get the waterproofs on. By the time I do, my trousers underneath are soaked, and this is also a bad time to discover a hole in your left boot. I get back on the joint but it’s pointless; there’s nobody in front of me as everyone has run for cover.

By the way, the bookmaker’s umbrella - the most pointless invention since somebody came up with the idea of those “Baby On Board” car stickers you put in the back window. (Well, I was going to ram you, but now I know you’ve a baby in the back seat... To be fair here, if I see one that says “Show Cats In Transit” it does make me want to give it a little nudge. Just to keep the felines on their toes, you understand.) Utterly useless as protection from the rain when the wind’s up. You’re as well standing there with a sieve on your head.

The rain finally abates just before the first race but it’s killed the business off. I’ve taken eight bets for the grand sum of 90 quid. As the race jumps off we try and get dried off, but at halfway a horse slips up on the bend and brings another one down. We all look at one another. This could be a very short afternoon indeed.

Post-race, it takes a consortium of jockeys and officials about five minutes to decide racing can’t go ahead after walking the track. “Like ice”, is how it’s described by one of the jockeys. Ten minutes later, the bing-bong goes, and it’s all over. Racing is abandoned.

Six hours on the road to bet on one race that the favourite wins, and staff all have to be paid regardless. It isn’t a good afternoon to be a Fakenham on-course bookmaker.

Undaunted by this sorry episode, the call once again came in on Monday of this week to work at the track Tuesday. It’s a Greene King Day at Fakenham, and the Bury St Edmunds-based brewery often give out loads of free tickets for these days, resulting in a good crowd that have a bet. I’m on the firm again.

An earlier start time means a 6.50am alarm call and an 8.30am pick up at Bingham. Traffic is bad though and we set off ten minutes late. Indeed, we’re already debating whether we have time for a McD’s within a few miles of setting off, with a slow-moving tractor not helping the situation; the pick for pitches is 11.10am, and Google Maps is currently forecasting our arrival at 10.50am. That doesn’t leave you a lot of wriggle room if you get caught behind an articulated lorry or farm vehicle, which is almost always 1.01 in the run in north Norfolk.

However, man must eat, and so a swift drive-thru is required. You can imagine our joy when the car in front of us gets his food, yet doesn’t drive off; instead a woman darts out the passenger side to use the facilities inside, but rather than park up, the car does not move from the food window. I’m just about to get out and politely enquire if he wouldn’t mind kindly sodding off as we’re in a rush, when he finally moves off. 10.56 sez Google Maps. Squeaky bum time.

Delighted to say that for the rest of the journey we encounter little traffic and get there at 10.47 thanks to Daren’s judicious decision making at roundabouts. Amazing how much time you can make up by knowing which lane you should be in.

I’m with S&D again, on the rails, working Pitch 3 which is the least attractive of the four (end picks 1 and 4 best, then 2, then mine) and whilst the weather is at least dry, if cold, there don’t appear to be many people about….

I will not bore you with the details of the afternoon. All you need to know is this - seven races, over which I took less than seventy bets, and bar a £200 wager on Pretending in the fifth, the biggest bet I took all day was forty quid. It felt like a very long afternoon and reports of a big crowd had been greatly exaggerated. Worse still, the cake stall was absent.

The next fixture at Fakenham is their Christmas one, on the 19th. I think I might wear my Christmas jumper - the one that says “BAH HUMBUG” across the front - for that one…

- DM

Jockey Profiles: de Boinville and Cobden

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This is the first in a new series of articles looking at the performance of some top National Hunt jockeys. In this initial offering I will be looking at Nico De Boinville and Harry Cobden. Both jockeys have the backing of huge stables with De Boinville riding primarily for Nicky Henderson and Cobden for Paul Nicholls.

I have analysed NH data for UK racing from 1st Jan 2016 to 31st Oct 2023. The main vehicle for my data gathering has been the Geegeez Query Tool, but I have also used the Geegeez Profiler. Hence all profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. All tables include A/E indices, an indicator of sustainable profitability. In addition, when data has been pulled from the Geegeez Profiler Tool, I have also shared the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures.

Let’s start with De Boinville.

Nico De Boinville: Overall Record

Let me first share De Boinville’s overall stats by looking at his performance on every single runner during the period of study:

 

 

This is a very solid set of figures – a win rate of more than one win in five, and an above average A/E index of 0.92 (the figure for all jockeys stands at 0.87). Losses of 11p in the £ to SP are also better than ‘average’ and if backing to BSP you would have made a small blind profit of £142.54 (ROI +5.5%). However, he has had a BSP winner at 130.0 which essentially is the reason for the + figure.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Year

Yearly stats are my next port of call. Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph indicates, De Boinville has been consistent in terms of yearly winners / placed efforts. There was a slight dip last year in 2022, but in 2023 he has won nigh on a quarter of all his races.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

A look at the results by splitting them into different price bands:

 

The Evens and shorter group have performed above the norm, getting close to a break-even situation. These short-priced runners have done especially well in chases hitting a win rate of over 71%. The 7/4 to 5/2 group has edged into profit, so this price range has offered some value. However, I would not be confident that it will continue in subsequent seasons as the slightly inflated results are probably down to statistical variance.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Distance

A look at De Boinville’s record at different distances now. I have grouped them into four distance bands and to begin with I’m comparing win and each way strike rates:

 

 

This graph shows that the shorter the distance the better for De Boinville. If we look at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) they correlate with the win/EW strike rates:

 

 

The 0.62 figure for the two mile or shorter races group is extremely impressive, as is the 2m1f to 2m2f group; less so the three miles or longer PRB figure of 0.48.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Race code

It is time to see if Nico’s record is better over the bigger obstacles, the smaller obstacles or on the level:

 

 

There are stronger figures across the board in hurdle races – a higher strike rate, better returns, and a higher A/E index. Backing all his mounts over hurdles to Betfair SP would have yielded a profit of £325.45 (ROI +21.1%), with six of the eight years producing a profit. Of course, a few big-priced winners have helped but hurdle races seem to be the races to concentrate on. Handicap hurdle races have produced the bigger profits to BSP but non-handicap hurdle races have also yielded a BSP profit.

Handicap chase results have proved to be poor by comparison. A strike rate of 13.2% has seen SP losses of 33p in the £; the BSP figures are not much better with losses standing at 27p in the £.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Racecourse

Below is a table displaying all courses where De Boinville has had at least 80 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

In general, the course strike rates are over 20% although Aintree and Cheltenham both dip below this mark. This is due to the competitive racing / bigger average field size you get at both tracks, and the A/E figures at those courses are actually top and third in the list. Uttoxeter results also come in at under 20% (15.65%) with a modest A/E index and PRB figure, so this looks a course to be a little wary of.

The Newbury figures are strong and are particularly impressive when focusing just on hurdle races. In these races at the Berkshire track, De Boinville has won 34 of his 116 starts (SR 29.3%) for an SP profit of £57.96 (ROI +50.0%). This profit almost doubles if backing to BSP standing at £106.62 (ROI +91.9%). However, don’t get too excited about the overall profits as a 50/1 winner (BSP 84.9) is almost solely responsible for the bottom line. Having said that, if you look at hurdlers at Newbury priced 2/1 or shorter, the record is very good (and profitable) – 22 wins from 38 (SR 57.9%) for an SP profit of £8.05 (ROI +21.2%); to BSP this edges up to +£10.33 (ROI +27.2%).

 

Nico De Boinville: Record by Trainer

Along with Nicky Henderson, only Ben Pauling has used De Boinville more than 100 times going back to the start of 2016. However, they have not joined forces at all in 2023, and only six times in 2022. Hence, I will simply focus on the combination with Henderson:

 

 

Let me compare these figures with his record with all other trainers combined:

 

 

There is a quite a difference as you can see. The strike rate for Henderson is more than double, and his runners have produced better returns, with both the A/E index and the PRB figures higher. Of course, this was perhaps to be expected as Henderson has a glut of quality horses.

There are a couple of Henderson / De Boinville stats I’d like to share:

  1. Henderson is not a huge fan of horses returning to the track quickly, but the jockey/trainer combo has done well when a horse is returning off a short break of two weeks or less. There have been only 50 qualifiers, but 13 have won (SR 26%) showing a profit to SP of £25.08 (ROI +50.2%).
  2. When De Boinville rides Henderson horses aged 3 or 4 the record reads 80 winners from 258 (SR 31%). Profits have been modest to SP (+£12.66, ROI +4.9%), but to BSP they look healthier at £56.53 (ROI +21.9%).

Nico De Boinville: Record by Class of Race

There are some interesting stats when looking at Graded / Listed races as the graph below of win strike rates show:

 

 

Grade 3 races, which in National Hunt are all handicaps, have provided a strike rate of just 1.1% - this is due to just one winner from 93 attempts. Of these 93 Grade 3 contestants, 39 of them were priced 8/1 or shorter. All 39 were beaten and only nine managed to place. 13 of the 39 were favourites, while 32 were in the top three of the betting.

In races of Class 2 or lower, De Boinville has hit win strike rates above 20% in three separate classes (Class 3, 4 and 5 events). He has only ridden in 41 Class 6 races, winning 6 (SR 14.6%), while in Class 2 events he is 46 from 299 (SR 15.4%).

Nico De Boinville: Record by Run style

Regular readers of my articles will know I am fan of sharing run style data. To begin with here is a breakdown of Nico’s run style performance in terms of win strike rate across ALL races:

 

 

Front runners (led) have edged it over prominent runners in terms of strike rate, both groups have secured a better than one-in-four win rate. If we examine the A/E figures we can see that they correlate with the SR%s as the following chart shows:

 

 

The led A/E index is decent at 1.05 which suggests these runners would have been value investments. Horses that raced mid-division or further back early would have offered punters poor value.

The two sets of run style data clearly show that when De Boinville is riding, a horse racing close to or up with the pace is what, as punters, we are hoping for.

Nico De Boinville: Additional stats

Before moving onto Harry Cobden, here are some extra stats for De Boinville that I feel are worth knowing:

  1. His record in novice events is poor from an ROI perspective. Despite a strike rate around the 25% mark, in novice chases you would have lost over 24p in the £ to SP (19p in the 3 to BSP). In novice hurdle races the figures are similar with 25p in the £ losses to SP, 15p in the £ to BSP.
  2. Horses priced 14/1 or bigger in novice events are 0 from 123.
  3. De Boinville has secured a better strike rate on fillies and mares (22.8%) compared to their male counterparts (21.4%). The female runners would have also produced a blind profit to SP of £27.57 (ROI +5.6%); to BSP this increases to +£128.50 (ROI +26%).
  4. Sticking with fillies and mares, when they have started Evens or shorter, 36 of the 45 have won securing an 80% strike rate. Returns have been positive, too, as one would expect – 31 pence in the £ at SP, 37p using BSP.

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Harry Cobden: Overall Record

Let’s now shift our focus to Harry Cobden and start by looking at his record on all horses in all UK NH races:

 

 

These figures are remarkably similar to those for De Boinville. The strike rates are within 0.21 of a percentage point and the ROIs are both around the -11% mark.

Now it is time to break down these data, firstly by year.

Harry Cobden: Record by Year

Here is a graphical breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph shows, Cobden has managed a win strike rate of 20% or more in six of the eight years, with the other two years just missing out (18.5% and 19.5%). Likewise, seven of the eight years have seen each way (win & placed) strike rates hitting over 40%. Overall, his figures look very consistent.

Harry Cobden: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Let us see whether any market / price patterns can be found by breaking down Cobden’s results by Starting Price bands:

 

 

The shorter priced runners (first three rows in the table) have provided similar results to those for De Boinville. Horses priced Evens and shorter have effectively broken even, while the 7/4 to 5/2 have again snuck into profit. As a rule, Cobden’s price stats suggest that horses 5/2 or shorter look the ones to concentrate on.

Harry Cobden: Record by Distance

A dive next into Cobden’s record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands I did earlier and am looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

These are a more even set of stats than those for De Boinville, with only a slight drop in longer distance races (3 miles or more). If we look at the PRB figures we get the following splits:

 

 

A much more even grouping for Cobden than we saw for De Boinville. He seems to ride all distances well, especially distances of 2 miles or less.

Harry Cobden: Record by Race code

The next table illustrates Harry’s record by race code.

 

 

Chases and hurdle races offer similar looking stats, certainly as far as strike rate and ROI% is concerned.

The results in bumpers (NH Flat) are poorer when considering the whole-time frame, and losses have been steep at over 27% (27 pence in the £). However, 2022 and 2023 would have seen you break even thanks to a strike rate of just over 20%.

Harry Cobden: Record by Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Cobden has had at least 80 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

Wincanton is the course that initially catches my eye. Not only has he ridden there more than anywhere else, but he has secured the best strike rate of all courses, too. A small profit to SP has also been achieved and the PRB figure of 0.68 is extremely high considering we are talking about over 300 rides. Not only that, but his record there has been very consistent hitting a strike rate of over 25% in each of the eight years. Hurdle races have provided the best results with 61 wins from 171 rides (SR 35.7%) for an SP profit of £40.86 (ROI +23.9%).

Taunton is another track with an excellent PRB of 0.68 – his rides at the course have seen a decent SR% again; this time 28.3%, but no blind profit. Like Wincanton, the hurdle results at the Somerset venue are the best with a 31% strike rate for a break-even scenario.

Other tracks where Cobden has done well include Newbury, Plumpton, and Worcester. Before moving on I will mention his record at Musselburgh. He has only had 24 rides there, but has been successful on 11 of them (SR 45.8%) for a profit of £13.21 (ROI +55%).

Harry Cobden: Record by Trainer

During the period of study, Cobden has had 100 plus rides for two trainers – Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard. Cobden had ridden over 600 times for Tizzard when that trainer passed the baton to his son Joe in April 2022. Hence, I will focus on his combination with Paul Nicholls:

 

 

He has secured a strike rate just above one win in four, but losses are slightly bigger than his overall P&L. For comparison purposes, here is his record with all other trainers combined:

 

 

As we can see the strike rate drops markedly to around one win in every six rides, but losses have been smaller. The PRB is lower, while the A/E index remains the same.

Harry Cobden: Record by Class of Race

When sharing Nico De Boinville’s stats earlier, it was shown that his record in Grade 3 contests was extremely poor. We see a similar situation when looking at Cobden’s results as the graph below shows:

 

 

Once again, the results for Grade 3 contests (remember, all of which are handicaps) are quite woeful, especially when we consider his overall record. It should also be noted that 39 of his rides in Grade 3 contests came from horses in the top three in the betting. Of these, just one prevailed.

Harry Cobden: Record by Run Style

Finally, in terms of main sections, let’s look at the run style splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

This breakdown shows how effective Cobden is when taking the early lead. A strike rate of 35.3% is exceptional. If you had been able to predict pre-race which of his horses went into an early lead you would have secured an SP profit of £126.04 (ROI +16.2%). Conversely, backing all hold up horses would have seen huge losses of £472.71 (ROI -47.8%). As one would expect the A/E indices for his Run Style runners correlate with the win rates:

 

 

The clear takeaway here is that Cobden on a front runner is a potent combination.

Harry Cobden: Additional stats

Before concluding this piece here are some extra stats for Harry Cobden that are worth knowing:

  1. Good to firm ground is relatively rare in NH racing but Cobden has scored 33.6% of the time when racing on this ground. He has won 45 races from 134 rides. A small 4p in the £ profit to SP would have been achieved if backing all such runners blind.
  2. When Cobden rides a horse for a second time in their careers having won on them last time out, he has an excellent strike rate of 28.6%.
  3. He has a modest record in maiden races in terms of returns. Losses of over 28p in the £ would have occurred if backing all qualifiers. If you exclude trainer Paul Nicholls from these figures the losses are even greater at over 40p in the £.

Main Takeaways

Below is a 'cut out and keep' table of the main takeaways from this research.

 

That’s all for this article – two jockeys for the price of one! I hope it has uncovered some angles that may prove useful for readers over the coming months.

- DR

Horse Racing Metrics: A/E, IV, PRB

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Throughout this site, in editorial content and on our award-winning Gold reports and racecards, there are references to various measures of performance or utility: horse racing metrics. Although some of the concepts may be new, their application – and therefore your understanding of them – is generally straightforward.

This article offers a brief run down of the metrics used, notably Impact Value (IV), Actual vs Expected (A/E) and Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB). In the following, I explain how the metrics are arrived at; but if you’re not a geeky type, simply make a note of the ‘what to look for’ component for each one.

Impact Value (IV)

IV helps to understand how often something happens in a specific situation by comparing it against a more general set of information for the same situation.

For example, we can get the IV of a trainer’s strike rate by comparing it with the average strike rate for all trainers.

Let’s say a trainer saddled 36 winners from 126 runners, a strike rate of 28.57%, during the National Hunt season.

And let's further say that, overall in that season, there were 3118 winners from 26441 runners. That’s an average strike rate of 11.79%.

We could simply divide the two strike rates:

28.57 / 11.79 = 2.42

Or we could do the long version, which at least helps understand the calculation. It goes like this:

('Thing' winners / All winners) / ('Thing' runners / All runners)

 

In this case,

(36 / 3118) / (126 / 26441)

= 0.011545 / 0.004765

= 2.42

 

What to look for with IV

An IV of 1 is the 'standard' for the total rate of incidence of something. A number greater than 1 relates that something happens more than standard, and a number less than 1 implies it happens less than standard.

The further above or below 1 the IV figure is, the more or less frequently than ‘standard’ something happens.

The example IV of 2.42 means our trainer won at a rate nearly two-and-a-half times the overall trainer seasonal average: 2.42 times, to be precise.

Note that very small data samples can produce misleading IV figures.

 

IV3

IV3 is a derivation of IV created by us here at geegeez.co.uk to help ‘smooth the curve’ on chart data. You can see examples of this when looking at draw data on this website.

IV3 simply adds the IV of a piece of data to the IV's of its closest neighbouring pieces of data, and divides the sum by three.

For example, the IV3 figure for stall five at a racecourse would be calculated as:

(IVs4 + IVs5 + IVs6) / 3

where IVs4 is the Impact Value of stall 4, the lower neighbour of stall 5, whose IV3 we are calculating, and IVs6 is the Impact Value of stall 6, the upper neighbour of the stall whose IV3 we are calculating.

Thus, in the below example which shows stalls 1-5, the IV3 figure for stall 2 is the average of the IV figures for stalls 1, 2 and 3:

(1.98 + 2.27 + 2.55) / 3 = 2.27

 

 

 

As with IV, the greater the value the better, with anything above 1 representing an outcome which occurs more frequently than standard.

N.B. For the lowest and highest stalls in a race, IV3 is calculated from an average of the stall and its sole neighbour (stall 2 in the case of stall 1, and stall H-1 in the case of the (H)ighest numbered stall).

 

What to look for with IV3

Used on this site mainly in charts, IV3 shows a smoother, more representative curve when looking at the impact of stall position.

Example IV Chart:

 

Same data plotted by IV3:

 

 

Actual vs Expected (A/E)

Whereas IV tells us how frequently, relatively, something happens, as bettors we need to know what the implied profitability of that something is. In concert, they are a powerful partnership, with favourable figures denoting an event that happens more frequently than average and with a positive betting expectation.

A/E, or the ratio of Actual versus Expected, attempts to establish the value proposition (profitability in simple terms) of a statistic. The 'actual' and 'expected' are the number of winners.

The ‘actual’ number of winners is just that. In the case of the IV example above, the trainer had 36 winners from 126 runners. Actual then is 36.

But how do we calculate the 'expected' number of winners?

We use a formula based on the starting price (you could just as easily use Betfair Starting Price or even tote return if you were sufficiently minded - we've used SP), thus:

Actual number of winners / Sum of ALL [entity] runners' SP's (in percentage terms)

So far we know that to be 36 / Sum of ALL [entity] runners' SP's (in percentage terms)

 

To establish a runner's SP in percentage terms, we do the sum 1/([SP as a decimal] + 1).

For instance, 4/1 SP would be 1/(4 + 1), or 1/5, which is 0.20,

evens SP would be 1/(1 + 1), or 1/2, which is 0.5,

1-4 SP would be 1/(0.25 + 1), or 1/1.25, which is 0.8, and so on.

 

The sum of our trainer's 126 runners' starting prices, calculated in the above fashion, is 33.15.

Our A/E then is 36 / 33.15 which is 1.09.

We can then say that this trainer’s horses have a slightly positive market expectation, and in general terms her horses look worth following.

 

What to look for with A/E

As with IV, a score above 1 is good and below 1 is not good, though in this case the degree of goodness or not goodness pertains to market expectation, or what might be summed up as ‘likelihood of future profitability’.

A dataset that shows a profit but has an A/E below 1 is probably as a result of one or two big outsiders winning. Such runners have a low expectation associated with them and are far less likely to represent winners in the future.

Clearly, then, we’re looking for an A/E above 1. But we need also to be apprehensive around ostensibly exciting profit figures when the A/E doesn’t back that up. That is, when the A/E figure is below 1.

Note also that very small data samples can produce misleading A/E figures.

 

Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB)

One of the main problems with assessing horseracing statistics is that we’re often faced with very small amounts of information from which to try to form a conclusion.

For this reason, I personally prefer place percentages to win percentages, as there are more place positions in a small group of races than there are winners. Thus, it tends to lead to slightly more representative findings.

PRB tries to take this race hierarchy a step further and produce a sliding scale of performance for every runner in a race based on where they finished.

So, for example, in a twelve-horse race, the winner beats 100% of its rivals, and the last placed horse beats 0% of its rivals. But what about those finishing between first and last?

The calculation is:

(runners - position) / (runners - 1)

 

The 4th placed horse's PRB in a 12-runner race would be calculated as:

(12 – 4) / (12 – 1)

= 8 / 11

= 0.73 (or 73%)

 

The full table of PRB’s for a 12-horse race is below.

 

 

A word on non-completions

There are different interpretations of how to cater for a horse which fails to complete (refused to race, unseated rider, fell, pulled up, etc).

Some exclude those runners from the calculation sample, others use a 50% of rivals beaten figure. The traditional way of dealing with non-completions - the way its creator, Simon Rowlands, has managed them since introducing %RB  around 15 years ago - is to recode pulled ups as joint-last (so will be >0% if more than one), and fell etc as neutral (50% of rivals beaten).

Whilst I can see the rationale behind both of those, the approach we have taken is more literal: we assume a non-completing horse to have beaten 0% of its rivals. This is unfair on the leader who falls at the last but nor does it upgrade a tiring faller or a horse pulling up at the back of the field.

There is not really a perfect way to represent non-completions in PRB terms; this is at least a consistent interpretation which is of little consequence in larger datasets or where non-completions are rare (for example, in flat races).

 

What to look for with PRB

PRB is helpful when attempting to establish the merit of unplaced runs; for example, a horse finishing 5th of 24 in a big field handicap has fared a good bit better than a horse finishing 5th of 6.

A PRB figure of 55% or more can be considered a positive; by the same token, a PRB figure below 45% should be taken as a negative, all other things being equal.

The problem with PRB is that it assumes, as per the rules of racing, that every horse is ridden out to achieve its best possible placing. In reality that frequently fails to happen: horses whose chances have gone are eased off and allowed to come home in their own time.

Thus, the further from the winner you get, the less reliable is the PRB figure.

PRB2

As the name suggests, this is the PRB figure, expressed as a decimal, times itself. This is also sometimes written as PRB^2, which means the same as PRB2.

So, for example, if the percentage of rivals beaten was 80%, or 0.8, the PRB2 figure would be 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64

The reason this is useful is that it rewards those finishing nearer to first exponentially, as the table and chart for an 11-runner race below illustrates.

 

 

 

The chart lines start and end in the same place but, in between, they are divergent.

The difference in the values is greater the further down the top half of the field a horse finishes, and then gravitates back towards the PRB line in the latter half of the field (where PRB2 scores are lowest).

This is significant when looking at, for example, trainer statistics. Let’s take an example where two trainers have the following finishes from three horses, all in eleven-runner races (for ease of calculation):

 

 

Using our reference table above for eleven-runner races, we could calculate the PRB’s, using decimals rather than fractions, as follows:

Trainer A: 1.0 + 0.5 + 0.0 = 1.5

Trainer B: 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 1.5

Both have a score of 1.5 which, when divided by the three runs, gives a PRB rating of 0.5.

But Trainer A had a winner and Trainer B failed to secure a finish better than 6th, so should we afford them the same merit?

Some will argue yes, but I prefer – and PRB^2 offers – to recognise all that has happened but to reward the trainer with the ‘meaningful’ placing to a greater degree than her perma-midfield counterpart.

Here’s how PRB^2 views the same trio of performances:

Trainer A: 1.0 + 0.25 + 0.00 = 1.25             / 3 = 0.42

Trainer B: 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.75           / 3 = 0.25

This time we see the preference towards Trainer A, who had the same average finishing position but the more worthy finish in that one of his runners won.

That, in my view, is a more meaningful statistic for all that it is not straightforward to know what a ‘good’ PRB^2 figure is.

What to look for with PRB^2

Anything above 0.4 on a reasonable sample size implies ‘good’ performance whereas anything below 0.3 on a reasonable sample implies ‘poor’ performance, though there is some scope for different interpretations between 0.3 and 0.4.

 

PRB3

PRB3, not to be confused with PRB^2, is used in the same way as IV3 when there is a logical and linear relationship between a data point and its closest neighbours. The example we used in IV3 was stall position and that holds equally for PRB3: it would be the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its closest neighbours. Another example might be the rolling monthly percentage of rivals beaten for a trainer, although this will always be historical in its outlook (we cannot know next month's PRB).

As with IV3, its primary utility is one of smoothing the curve to make patterns in the data easier to spot.

 

Horse Racing Metrics Summary

Throughout the site, figures relating to Impact Value, Actual vs Expected, and Percentage of Rivals Beaten are referenced. There is nothing to be afraid of; rather, each metric simply provides an appropriate way of easily understanding the data (and, crucially, its utility), and comparing it within the context of the entity under investigation.

Monday Musings: Two Young Guns

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Last week, as I detailed the overwhelming power of the big yards in the UK and Ireland, on the flat and it seemed even more so over jumps, I should have conceded that there is always room for a talented upstart to pick up a piece of the pie, writes Tony Stafford.

He or she has to have at least one well-heeled and convinced supporter to crash the big boys’ party; but two young Newmarket jumps trainers showed at Cheltenham this past weekend that they are on the fast track to success.

Both are based in the least likely of hotbeds for training jumpers in the UK. Newmarket, for all the merits of the schooling facilities of the Links, just behind Newmarket golf club and across from the Cambridge Road polytrack gallop and thence the Rowley Mile, has fewer jumping trainers than ever. Maybe that will start to change.

Cast your minds back 14 hours to the last race of Cheltenham’s three-day Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting. The favourite, a 9/4 shot, was sent out by a young man who didn’t have his first jumps runners until earlier this year. He made a great start, collecting five wins between the beginning and end of the 2022-23 season in late April.

Another eight successes under NH Rules have followed this campaign and, in between, 13 have come off 50 runs from 25 individual horses in his first campaign on the flat.

Ben Brookhouse is the name and the winners have flowed ever since from the nicely compact and centrally situated Saville House stable, occupied to good effect for many years and still owned by Willie Musson.

Ben’s jewel in the crown as far as buying horses is concerned is his father Roger, a long-standing owner for the Pipe stable. Brookhouse senior has some well-regarded animals sprinkled around a few major Irish yards, notably with Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead.

But the decision was made for Ben to train all the UK runners and yesterday’s impressive second bumper win for Brechin Castle under Jack Quinlan was as decisive as it was noteworthy and eye-catching for both trainer and long-neglected jockey. It ran in Roger’s colours, too!

Jack Quinlan has been just about the only professional jump jockey to be based in Newmarket for several years. Many questioned his stubbornness in remaining close to his family, but the association with Brookhouse has coincided with a general wider appreciation of his qualities.

An Irish point-to-point winner, Brechin Castle was prepared by the champion of the Irish pointer ‘conditioning and selling-on lark’ in Colin Bowe. He upgraded an original €52k yearling buy to a €165k project, merely by winning a point by a length; but as they say, it’s how they do it.

Pointers that turn into bumper and then jumping stars can come from all types of background. Brechin Castle’s sire Shantou died as a 28-year-old: yes, I kid you not, when Brechin Castle was already three years old. His dam’s sire, dual Derby (French and Irish by seven and then four lengths for Henry Cecil) Old Vic was 25 hen he passed away in 2011. Plenty of proven breeding talent to go with Classic performance.

The trick with Irish point winners is to find the ones with a touch of speed. We saw it from Brechin Castle on his UK debut at Sedgefield last month when he stretched 19 lengths clear. Yesterday, he drew alongside a Paul Nicholls previous winner up the home straight and had a comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths to spare at the line of this Listed contest.

Of Ben’s five National Hunt wins before the season change-over, one was Listed bumper horse Aslukgoes, and he won twice with veteran hunter chaser Espoir De Teillee, each time ridden by Fern O’Brien, Fergal’s daughter. He also had a juvenile hurdler and staying novice to complete the eclectic score.

The flat campaign continued to reflect both his versatility and the varied composition of his stable. When we talked at an Epsom evening meeting in the summer, he said how lucky he is to be able largely to buy what he likes when he goes to horse sales. “Sometimes, though, if when I got one home, Dad doesn’t want it, I’m stuck with it until I can find an owner!”

Among the dozen winners, there were a couple of smart two-year-olds, Ben clearly intent on making his name as a dual-purpose trainer. In that respect he is following the example of his latest employer, Ian Williams, to whom he was assistant trainer until branching out this year.

Amazingly, James Owen, the other ground-breaking Newmarket handler to show his credentials at Cheltenham, also only took out his training licence this season. Before that, he had been one of the most successful trainers of Arabian horses in the UK.

He is now fully committed to the new job, though, and recently moved into Green Ridge stables in the Hamilton Road. When I had a connection with horses trained in Daryll Holand’s Exning yard – at the time the late Shaun Keightley was in situ – James Owen stabled his horses in a smart, but small, much newer building just to the right of the entrance.

Gay Kelleway was next door. As I mentioned, Owen was the top trainer of Arabian horses and the old maxim that if you can train one type of horse, you should be able to make a go at others seems to be ringing true in his case.

Owen started even later in the year – after the 2022-23 season end – than Brookhouse, but when Burdett Road, owned by the Gredley family, bolted up in the Triumph Hurdle Trial that opened Saturday’s programme, it made a lot of people take notice of this young man, probably many for the first time.

Burdett Road isn’t the only horse to give a salute to Bill Gredley’s East End of London heritage, Burdett Road going from Mile End Road to Commercial Road [and where the editor plays football on a Saturday morning! - Ed.] For this most successful businessman and Classic-winning owner (User Friendly won two Oaks’s and the St Leger against the boys in 1992), Owen has seven among those to have run so far this year. I doubt that this speedy gelding will be the last to win a good jumps race for his talented trainer, who is already up to 22 for his initial season.

Burdett Road had been a nice three-year-old when trained by Michael Bell, winning the Golden Gates Stakes at Royal Ascot and two other races on the flat before running third in two Group 3 events. A 100-rated horse ought to make a decent hurdler if he stays and on Saturday Harry Cobden was at pains to give the Muhaarar gelding a chance to last out the trip on the testing Cheltenham track.

He sat an exaggerated last of nine and only when they came down the hill approaching the home turn did he make any sort of move. Still three lengths adrift at the final flight, Cobden only needed to clear the obstacle safely. That achieved, he sprinted up the hill for a six-and-a-half length success.

As was pointed out afterwards, none of the Irish we’ll see and fear next March was there - no doubt Mr Mullins is honing the skills of the latest batch of Auteuil acquisitions - but rarely do you see horses scoot up that hill on soft ground in that manner.

James Owen said afterwards he would look forward hopefully to good ground at the Festival next March to harness his speed.

As Nicky Henderson wisely averred yesterday after Jonbon’s authoritative return in the Shloer Chase, a lot can happen before then, but Ben Brookhouse and James Owen will both be picturing a repeat of this weekend’s spectaculars to warm the long winter nights.

- TS

Dave Renham: NH Q&A

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This article is slightly different from my usual pieces in that I am going to address some of the questions you have asked in the comments over the past couple of years, writes Dave Renham.

As the turf flat season has come to an end, I will concentrate on some of the National Hunt questions that have been posed. Any profit and loss figures quoted have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price less 5% commission. Data have been taken from UK NH racing going back to 1st Jan 2017. Here we go...

 

Does the market position of the horse on debut make any difference in their next few runs?

For this answer I am going to combine the stats for all horses having their second, third, fourth and fifth careers starts. Horses that were favourite on their debut have gone on to win just under 20% of the time when grouping together all the results of their next four races. The graph below shows the second to fifth run combined strike rate for different market positions on debut:

 

 

The graph shows that the position a horse appears in the betting market on debut has an influence on their success early in their careers. In terms of returns, favourites on debut have got close to breaking even if you had backed them in all of their next four starts. Compare this to horses that that were 5th or higher in the betting market on debut – they would have combined to lose you over 20 pence in the £.

 

How successful are beaten favourites on their next start?

Horses that were beaten favourites last time out scored in 18.6% of their next starts; but backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of 6p for every £1 staked. Looking at horses that were beaten favourite two starts back, they have produced a strike rate of 17.3% with slightly higher losses of 7p in the £.

Horses that have been beaten favourites on both of their last two starts have won just under 20% of the time, but losses have been steeper at 9p in the £. These are generally worth swerving!

 

Is wearing blinkers for the first time a positive or a negative?

Trainers turn to headgear in an attempt to make it easier for the horse to focus on what is in front of them rather than being distracted by other horses or the crowd etc in their peripheral vision. Hence, trainers hope that the application of blinkers will help the horse concentrate better and thus perform better. However, the stats point to the fact that horses in first time blinkers are a negative.

First time blinker wearers have won 8.5% of their races (205 wins from 2402 runs) producing losses of £367.95 (ROI -15.3%). One positive stat worth sharing is that if the horse was prominent in the betting (SP of 9/4 or less), this subset of first time wearers made a profit, albeit from a small sample. There were 104 qualifying horses of which 49 won (SR 47.1%) for a profit of £28.75 (ROI +27.6%).

Trainer Gary Moore has a good record with horses wearing blinkers for the first time scoring 7 times from 28 Runners (SR 25%) for a profit of £30.27 (ROI +108.1%). Yes, it is a very small sample but there are two other positives I can share. Firstly, seven other runners were placed, giving Moore a win and placed strike rate of 50%; and secondly, I checked his 2013 to 2016 results also and he won 5 from 18 (SR 27.8%) for a profit of £30.42 (ROI +169.03).

Of course, there are other headgear options and the application of first time cheekpieces has produced much better overall results than first time blinkers. The stats show that 10.7% of these runners won and losses stood at only 1.2% - or just over 1 p in the £ lost for every £1 staked.

 

How does the weight a horse carries in a handicap chase affect the result?

Horses are assigned different handicap marks in handicap races which affects how much weight a horse will carry. Better horses with higher handicap marks (Official Ratings) carry more weight. The idea is that the weight will balance out the differences in ability with the theory that any handicap race will end with all runners finishing at the same time. The handicapper does an excellent job, but higher weighted horses still win more often than lower weighted runners. The graph below shows this:

 

 

Top weights in handicap chases are more than twice as likely to win as horses weighted 7th or lower. However, the market does adjust for this. Top weights, despite their decent win rate, would have lost you around 7 pence in the £ if backing all of them ‘blind’. Horses that were 7th or lower in the weights actually turned a small BSP profit. Of course, a few big-priced winners did skew these results somewhat, but even without those you could legitimately argue that lower weighted horses offer slightly better value in these races.

 

What percentage of races are won by a horse from the top three in the betting?

When combining the results of all National Hunt races, the winner comes from the top three in the betting in 73% of races. However, there is a big variance depending on type of race. Here is a table showing the performance of the top three in the betting in different race types. I have ordered the table row from highest percentage to lowest:

 

 

Handicap races are generally more competitive than non-handicaps which is one of the reasons why the lowest figures are for the handicap groups. Having said that, field size plays a part and handicaps tend to have bigger fields which naturally impacts the percentages. In terms of returns, horses from the top three in the betting have performed best in non-handicap novice chases – these runners would have lost you just 1p for every £10 bet (ROI -0.1%).

 

Have you any breeding stats that will help with my National Hunt betting?

Here are my favourite stats connected with breeding.

  1. When looking at French-bred runners, did you know that female horses have outperformed male horses in terms of strike rate? This is unusual as male horses have a general strike rate edge over female runners in all types of racing be it flat, all weather or National Hunt. French-bred runners that are female have won 13.72% of their races; males have won 13.57%. Females have provided by far the best value of the two also – males would have lost you 9p in the £; females would have won you 14p in the £. I should also say that French-bred females have a strike rate edge in both hurdle races and chases. Male French-bred runners enjoy a small edge in bumpers.
  2. There are a handful of sires whose chase record is considerably better than their hurdles one. Muhtathir is one such sire. His chase SR% stands at 18% while his hurdle one is just 7.9%. In terms of A/E indices, his chase index is 1.04, his hurdle one is just 0.61. Another sire with a similar bias is Schiaparelli. His hurdle SR% has been 9.3% (A/E 0.79); his chase SR% more than double that at 18.9% (A/E 1.02). Fuisse has similar stats to Schiaparelli – he has a 21.4% strike rate in chases (A/E 1.14), in hurdles this drops to 11.9% (A/E 0.81). Both Fuisse and Schiaparelli have made blind profits in chases to BSP.
  3. Sire Trans Island performs much better in hurdle races compared to chases. Strike rates are 13% (hurdle races) versus 8% (chases) with the A/E indices standing at 1.10 and 0.70 respectively. Coastal Path is another sire who seems to have a clear edge when comparing hurdle results to chase ones. In chases he has a 12.1% SR% with his runners showing hefty losses of 44p in the £; in hurdle races the strike rate is 17.7% and his runners have made a blind profit of £322.48 (ROI +107.9%).
  4. Poliglote is a sire that only has a handful of hurdlers these days, but he is the only sire to secure a strike rate of over 20% in these races over the lesser obstacles (44 wins from 215 runners). Returns of 73 pence in the £ is noteworthy and hence any hurdler sired by Poliglote is worth close scrutiny.

 

 

Are there any trainers who do particularly well in bumpers?

Let’s start by looking at the trainers with the highest strike rates in bumpers. In order for them to qualify they must have had at least 75 runners and achieved a 20% win rate or higher:

 

 

It will probably come as no surprise to see Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson at the top. However, neither have made an overall profit, losing 4p and 5p in the £ respectively. There is a profitable angle for both Nicholls and Henderson though when we dig a bit deeper into the numbers – and it is the same angle. For both trainers you would have made a profit if ignoring horses on debut and those with just one run under their belt. For Henderson, horses having their second or more career start have won 20 races from 79 (SR 25.3%) for a profit of £23.13 (ROI +29.3%); for Nicholls he has had 21 winners from 69 (SR 30.4%) showing a profit of £18.79 (ROI +27.2%).

There is one more trainer I would like to mention who does not appear on the above graph and that is Hughie Morrison. Morrison is probably better known as a trainer on the level, but he has an excellent record albeit from a smaller sample. He has had 58 bumper runners since 2017 of which 14 have won (SR 24.1%) recording a profit of £24.87 (ROI +42.9%). In fact, 7 of his last 19 runners (SR 36.8%) have won.

Sticking a little bit longer with bumpers, there are two trainers who have done particularly well with bumper debutants. Harry Fry and Anthony Honeyball are the trainers in question. Their figures are impressive:

 

 

Both trainers have been consistent, each making a profit in five of the seven seasons.

 

Which trainers do best with horses that make their career debut in a hurdle race?

Just under 70% of all National Hunt horses have their first ever run in a bumper. However, a good proportion start off their careers by ignoring the bumper route and going straight over hurdles. One trainer excels with these runners, namely Nicky Henderson. His record is outstanding:

 

 

The win strike rate is on another stratosphere with only two other trainers hitting over 20% (20% and 26% for Donald McCain and Paul Nicholls respectively). His biggest priced winner has been at 11/1 (BSP 17) so his results are not skewed in any way. Henderson also seems to target hurdle races at Newbury as 11 of his 18 runners (SR 61.1%) have won there on debut.

There are two stables to avoid, however, when they send an unraced horse over hurdles for their debut. Firstly, Venetia Williams has saddled just three winners from 52 (SR 5.8%) for a loss of £35.65 (ROI -68.6%). In fact, 31 of these runners started at single figure odds so this is not a case of lots of outsiders losing. The other stable to avoid is the Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero yard. They have managed just two winners from 64 runners (SR 3.1%) for a hefty loss of £52.38 (ROI -81.8%). In truth, a fair proportion of their runners have been at the higher end of the price spectrum, but regardless of price I think a wide berth is the prudent call.

 

At the Cheltenham Festival Irish trainers seem to excel. What is the record of Irish trainers in all UK National Hunt Races?

Here are the stats for all Irish trained runners in the UK going back to 2017:

 

 

This is an impressive set of figures. Having said that, 80% of the profits occurred at the Cheltenham Festival from around 28% of the total runners.

The Irish seem to target the better meetings and the bigger prizes. There are four courses where they have had at least 200 runners – all four have seen a blind profit as the table below shows:

 

 

It is no surprise that Cheltenham has seen the best returns, but the Perth stats are strong, too. It makes sense to me that when you see an Irish runner declared at any of these four tracks you should look carefully into their chances. If the race is a class 1 or 2 contest, then that has also been a positive.

 

Trainers with sole runners on the day – are any worth following?

The penultimate question for this piece concerns trainers who have had just one runner racing on a particular day. Firstly, let us see the trainers with the best strike rates with these sole runners.

 

 

The usual suspects of Nicholls and Henderson head the list, but it is interesting to see Ann Hamilton in fourth place. Six of the ten earned a blind profit – Henderson, Skelton, Hamilton, Richards, Lacey and Bailey. As far as Henderson is concerned, if you ignored his runners that started favourite, his record is mightily impressive with 53 wins from 249 runners (SR 21.3%) for a profit of £117.99 (ROI +47.4%). This subset of runners would have yielded a profit in six of the seven years.

 

What is the comparison of novice chase debutants with horses having their second chase start in a novice chase?

This is a very recent question which was asked after I wrote a piece on chase debutants. I was asked about trainer improvement between chase debut in a novice chase and the second chase start in a novice chase. Horses that are racing for the first or second time often contest novice chase events so there is a reasonable data set for some trainers.

Firstly, let me compare the overall strike rates in novice chases between horses having their first ever chase run compared with those contesting a novice chase having only their second run over fences:

 

 

As you can see, and might expect, horses improve for the experience. Remarkably, horses having their second chase run have made a blind profit when they raced in a novice chase on this second start. That 18% strike rate has helped turn a 7p in the £ profit.

Now to compare trainer performance. Below is a table displaying individual trainer strike rates on chase debut and 2nd chase run. Once again, these figures apply only when the race in question was a novice chase. To qualify each trainer has had at least 30 runs for each group. I have also created an extra column where I have divided the 2nd run SR% by the debut SR%. To show an improvement this figure needs to be higher than 1.00. I have ordered the table by ‘improvement’:

 

 

Tim Vaughan has shown a remarkable improvement going from 4 wins from 72 on debut to 9 wins from 33 on second start. There is also a significant differential when comparing the Evan Williams stats. There are very few trainers whose chase debutants out-perform their second chase starters but there are a handful (at the bottom of the table). I hope this table will prove useful to assess how likely a horse is to improve from chase debut to second chase run.

As stated, this final question has been geared to novice chase data only. Not all first- and second-time chasers race in a novice chase. Hence you would get bigger data sets if you allowed ‘all chases’ to be analysed for these two groups of runners. Having said that, I have looked briefly at that data, too, and the results for most of the above trainers are similar.

So, there you have it – a selection of answers to the many questions I have been asked about National Hunt racing in recent times. If you have any specific questions, please post them in the comments. It might inspire a new article!

- DR

Monday Musings: Crossing Borders

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You might not have noticed, but the British flat turf season ended with a whimper, as they say, on Saturday – on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle rather than on the swamp that was Doncaster, writes Tony Stafford. The end-of-season highlight, the November Handicap, sponsored by whoever they can drum up these days, was a denuded affair of half a field compared with its heyday, not that Brian Ellison or the owners of Onesmoothoperator minded as they picked up 36k of Virgin Bet money.

The last actual turf meeting to be completed had been Newmarket a week earlier and it wouldn’t have needed much creativity to suggest to trainers and owners that a decent turf surface there would still have been more likely than anywhere else in the country and could accommodate 20 runners with ease. The horses that turned up had presumably been geared up for a big race opportunity on autumn (or worse) grass and that’s what they could have got at HQ.

Instead, in addition to Newcastle, we had Aintree in the north-west and Kelso in Scotland over jumps, with Wincanton in the West Country and an all-weather card at Chelmsford in deepest Essex. There was again a mystifyingly small field for the first go over the Grand National fences this season in the not-so-Grand Sefton which attracted just eleven.

Meanwhile down at Wincanton, Paul Nicholls had a field day, sending out the first four winners before Anthony Honeyball spiked his guns winning the main race, the Badger Beer, with Blackjack Magic and then going on to complete a double, both with Rex Dingle in the saddle, this time on Good Look Charm.

Nicholls was still happy enough having swept up the other two main prizes, the Elite Hurdle, for the umpteenth time, with Rubaud, and the Rising Stars Chase with Knappers Hill.

I’d been wondering about the definitions of the United Kingdom, Great Britain and the British Isles before offering today’s quiz question. Bearing in mind Nicholls and his Wincanton four-timer, I ask, which trainer sent out most winners in the UK on the Friday and Saturday of last week?

The answer: Gordon Elliott, who provided 11 of the 14 winners at the two-day Down Royal meeting. Benefiting from a minimal representation from Willie Mullins, he had the first four on Friday and the last two after missing the fifth. Then on Saturday, he could not improve on his first five, despite having an odds-on chance in the last of seven races that day.

His tally there equalled his entire score of 11 more on Irish (non-UK) tracks over the previous 14-day period. Down Royal is close to the town of Lisburn, in the Six Counties, and situated around 40 miles from the border with the Republic whether you are travelling south or south-west as the border meanders its way across to the sea.

Of course, all the Down Royal stats apply to Irish racing. Its meetings, and those of Downpatrick, the other (and jumps only) Irish racecourse are staged under the Rules of Irish racing and all their statistics are included in the Irish returns. Many of the top domestic English, Scottish and Welsh jumps stables get a decent portion of their better imports though from the flourishing Northern Irish point-to-point field.

If the successes of Elliott and Nicholls tell you anything, the top stables have been stocking up avidly over the past 12-18 months and are going to be more formidable than ever. £300,000 plus is not unknown for a smart point-to-point prospect and, even then, success is not assured.

To illustrate that observation, three former Irish point winners lined up for yesterday’s finale at Ffos Las. Two that cost 100 grand and 85k respectively finished miles behind the Isabel Williams-ridden (and sourced at the sales) Followango. She paid 8k for the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old and owners W J Evans Racing could increase that probably by at least ten-fold if they wanted to leave the risk to someone else!

Gordon Elliott’s rehabilitation seems to have been largely achieved following the embarrassment of that infamous picture on his gallops. Talent will out as they say, though whether the major owners who decided to leave will ever return is another matter. But training is never plain sailing as he will be quick to admit. Yesterday’s nine runners at Naas, so back home in Ireland, produced no wins and just a couple of consolation second places.

The flat season may be over, the awards having been handed out a while ago at Ascot, but several trainers and jockeys have still been aiming at some of the major prizes available elsewhere. I’m not sure how Hollie Doyle is after unseating from her mount at Fukushima racecourse in Japan yesterday, while Ryan Moore would have been happier if the mare Geraldine, second choice for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Kyoto, had done better than finish in 5th place.

He has the consolation of the rider’s share of 85k, one tenth of the winner’s prize won by Christophe Lemaire on the favourite Brede Weg in this race for 3yo and up fillies and mares.

And the Melbourne Cup last Tuesday week had been a frustration for Simon and Ed Crisford as their former inmate Without A Fight collected the multi-million first prize having previously narrowly denied their present high-class performer West Wind Blows in the Caulfield Cup.

West Wind Blows, again ridden by Jamie Spencer, turned out on Saturday in the TAB Champion Stakes at Flemington but despite starting favourite for the £1 million plus first prize, could fare no better than 9th of 11. Prizemoney went almost all the way down but stopped at £33k for eighth!

There was a trio of UK jockeys riding in yesterday’s Group 2 at San Siro in Milan. The Crisfords targeted the race with hat-trick scorer Poker Face, ridden by James Doyle, while Archie Watson had two representatives with Oisin Murphy and Luke Morris doing the steering on Roman Mist and Brave Emperor respectively.

Once again, the Crisfords were disappointed, Poker Face started odds-on but the honours and the £100k pot went to Watson and Morris, with Brave Emperor striding to a four-length success over the favourite. The second Watson runner Roman Mist was denied third by a short head.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup and Greatwood Hurdle are the big races to anticipate next weekend as the jumps season now gets into full flow. The Paddy Power looks too complicated at this stage, and I’d like to see the first lot of acceptances later today before starting to formulate an opinion.

But I’m more than happy to put forward a tip for next Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle. I always have a great respect for anything that Dan Skelton shows up with and can understand why his Knickerbockerglory is prominent in the market.

However, I was so impressed with the way Punctuation won going back on the flat at Doncaster, after a long layoff for Fergal O’Brien. That powerful win suggested he’d improved since his highly successful jumping stint last winter. Punctuation for me.

- TS

When Hurdlers Go Chasing

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Some horses are bred to chase, others are not, writes Dave Renham. Some horses are better over hurdles, others are better over the bigger obstacles. In this article I will look at horses making their debut in a chase having switched from hurdling last time out. The data have been taken from UK National Hunt races spanning the seven calendar years from 2016 to 2022. All profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price less 5% commission.

All Runners

Firstly let’s review the breakdown for all first-time chasers that qualify having run las time out (LTO) over hurdles:

 

 

These chase debutants have won around one race in every seven and there is not a particularly good bottom line with all runners combining to lose over 10 pence for every £1 staked. In addition, the A/E index is quite modest at 0.88.

Handicap vs Non-handicap

Diving deeper into the stats, we’ll start by splitting the results between handicap and non-handicap races. Here is the win strike rate comparison:

 

 

As can be seen from the graph, debutants that contest a non-handicap have a much higher strike rate, which is to be expected; but, not shown, handicap runners would have lost a little less money overall. A/E indices are similar with 0.89 for non-handicaps, 0.87 for handicaps. It should be noted that most horses making their chase debut do it in a handicap – 72% in fact. With no clear edge to be had let’s move on to market factors.

Betting Market

How good a guide is the betting market is the next question? Here is the breakdown by Industry SP grouping.

 

 

As is shown, very short prices (less than 1/2) have scored enough times to make a profit. Conversely, the very big priced (40/1+) debut chasers have a dreadful record. They have proved extremely unlikely to spring a surprise and losses of nearly 80p in the £ would be painful had you backed them all. Horses priced between 5/2 and 6/1 (combining the price brackets 5/2 to 4/1 and 9/2 to 6/1) edged into profit from a decent sample size. You could argue that, if there is any value, then this is the price bracket which might offer some.

The 25/1 to 33/1 group looks to me to be an anomaly, especially considering the strike rate exceeds the 16/1 to 22/1 group’s strike rate. My guess is that the significant profit seen for the 25/1 to 33/1 bracket is unlikely to be replicated in the years to come. As a writer/researcher it is all well and good quoting profit figures, but if they are unlikely to be sustainable, for whatever reason, it is important to make readers aware of one’s thoughts and the likely bigger picture. Before moving on, I wanted to try and test whether my theory that the recent results for 25/1 to 33/1 runners was likely to be an anomaly. To do that I crossed checked data from 2009 to 2015 and, during that period, 25/1 to 33/1 shots won less than 2% of the time losing 44p in the £.

 

Gender of horse

This is an area I always look at when researching racing data because there are occasions when the sex of the horse makes a real difference in terms of results and returns. It is also a factor that not many punters worry about, so I feel there is a potential edge to be had in certain circumstances. Let’s see whether that is the case here. Firstly, a look at the win strike rates:

 

 

As we can see there is a big variance in terms of win strike rate. Male horses comfortably outperform female runners when making their chase debut. Now it is important to note that male runners do make up 84% of all runners. However, when we look at losses to BSP female runners have actually lost more in absolute terms than males: females produced a loss of £361.51 to £1 level stakes compare with -£344.48 for males.

When we compare the return on investment, there is a chasm between the two groups. Colts and geldings lost just 6% (6p in the £), while fillies and mares lost over 34% (34p in the £). These stats are powerful and can help give is an edge.

Age of horse

A look at what difference the age of the horse makes. Here are the splits:

 

 

4yo chasing debutants are relatively rare but from this modest sample they have performed well. The main takeaway from this table, though, is that horses aged 9 or older are to be avoided. They win far less often than younger runners, and the returns have been dreadful: nigh on 50p in the £. Mares aged 9 or older making the switch from hurdles to chases for the first time have been rare; but of the 71 qualifiers just 2 won!

The 8-year-old group also perform well below the norm and proved very poor value.

Last time out finishing position

The next area to come under the microscope is LTO performance in terms of finishing position. Let us look at the win strike rates first:

 

 

Last time out winners have the highest strike rates followed by LTO runners up, so a better LTO performance seems to be significant from a win probability perspective. It will come as no surprise that horses that were pulled up last time are a cohort to avoid – they have produced a low strike rate at 9% with losses of over 20 pence in the £ from 749 qualifiers.

The anomaly here is the group of horses that fell or unseated LTO. Their strike rate of 16.1% is higher than I had expected. Not only that, but these runners would have secured a profit of £117.10 to £1 level stakes (ROI +99.2%). At just 118 qualifiers, the sample size is quite small, so I think there is a case for remaining sceptical.

Looking at these results in more detail I realised that they were skewed somewhat by three big priced winners. That helps explain the profit figure. I did back check 2009 to 2015 data for LTO fallers/unseated riders to give more context: the strike rate in that period was 16% as well, but in this time frame they made losses more in line with my pre-research expectations of 16p in the £.

Country of Breeding

A quick look at breeding in terms of the origin of the horse. For this I want to compare the record of British-, Irish- and French-bred chase debutants. Here are the strike rates for each:

 

 

There is a big advantage to French-bred chase debutants in terms of their win chance. Remarkably, backing all French-breds blind would have yielded a profit of £70.55 (ROI +6.2%). French-bred chase debutants have shown good consistency, too, having hit a strike rate more than 18% in six of the seven years under review. Four of the seven years turned a blind profit, two years made a loss and one year broke even. Chasing debutants who are French bred demand close scrutiny.

Trainers

The final area for research is usually a popular one, namely trainers. Below is a table of trainers who have had at least 50 runners switching from hurdles to make their chase debut. I have ordered them by strike rate:

 

 

There is a huge difference in strike rate between Henderson at the top (31.82%) and Hawke at the bottom (5.66%). 13 of the 30 trainers have made a BSP profit with 17 in the negative.

It will come as no surprise to see Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls occupy the top two spots, but despite excellent strike rates neither have made a profit. This is simply due to the fact punters and bookmakers know these two trainers inside out and finding any value for either is relatively rare regardless of ‘angle’. However, there is one Nicky Henderson positive to share and that is with his odds-on runners. They have won a remarkable 24 times from 30 runners (SR 80%). A profit of £6.19 (ROI +20.6%) would have been achieved if backing all of them.

However, the trainer that catches my eye is Dan Skelton. A strike rate of just over one win in every four and decent profits to boot. Let’s dig deeper into his stats. Firstly, a year-by-year breakdown:

 

 

2016 was the one losing year and the only year where his strike rate dipped below 20%. The 2017 to 2022 results were very consistent, and impressive, showing that his bottom line has not been skewed by a few big priced winners.

Harry Skelton has ridden the vast majority of these runners, and this combination has been responsible for profits of £75.76. Backing this duo would have seen you earn over 44p for every £1 bet during the seven-year period (from 169 qualifiers). Here are three more positive Skelton angles:

  1. He has bucked the female horse trend, scoring with 28% of this cohort (10 wins from 35).
  2. His 5yo runners have done particularly well, winning 15 of their 42 starts (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £38.51 (ROI +93.9%).
  3. Skelton has an outstanding record when his chasing debutants tackle shorter distances. In races of 2m 1f or less he has recorded 25 successes from 67 (SR 37.3%) showing a profit of £46.40 (ROI +70.3%).

Dan Skelton looks a trainer to be on the right side of with chasing debutants.

Summary: bullet points

Before I wind this piece up let me share what I think are the strongest stats both positive and negative from my research on chase debutants making the switch from hurdling.

  1. Horses priced 5/2 to 6/1 (Industry SP) seem to be the range to concentrate on.
  2. Avoid horses priced 40/1 or bigger.
  3. Female horses have a very poor record in terms of both strike rate and returns.
  4. Four-year-olds do well albeit from a modest sample. Avoid chase debut runners aged 9 and up, and it is probably also worth swerving 8yo’s.
  5. Avoid horses that were pulled up LTO.
  6. French-bred horses comfortably outperform British- and Irish-bred runners.
  7. Dan Skelton is a trainer to keep a close eye on as his runners have a very good overall record.

With the National Hunt season clicking into gear now, horses making their chase debuts will be appearing more and more regularly. Hopefully, this article will help to point you in the right direction.

 - DR

Breeders’ Cup 2023: The Chalky & Scratchy Show

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The 40th renewal of the Breeders' Cup in gorgeous Santa Anita was an intense cauldron of high-class action. It always is. But there were differences between the 2023 version and those that went before, as outlined in my five takeaways below...

Scratch That

There was a swathe of non-runners, or scratches as they're known across the pond, over the two days. In fact, even before the Euro runners were due to board their flights, a number were withdrawn. Once on the ground at Santa Anita, over the course of the week further scratches were announced including Aidan O'Brien's Pearls And Rubies and, more materially, River Tiber and Bolshoi Ballet; Classic intended runners Mage, Geaux Rocket Ride and Arcangelo; Dirt Mile second favourite Practical Move; as well as the Jessica Harrington-trained Givemethebeatboys and Archie Watson-trained Bradsell.

The withdrawal, on veterinary advice, of most of these - and due to injuries sustained training by Mage, Geaux Rocket Ride and Practical Move - were a feature of a very troubled build up to the race days. Disturbingly, both Practical Move (cardiac arrest) and Geaux Rocket Ride (displaced condylar fracture, failed to recover from surgery, euthanised) died.

 

This was fuel to the fire of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), an entity with a strong presence in liberal California and who were making their point outside the racetrack throughout the weekend. A large banner proclaiming "Horses Are Killed Here" greeted racegoers and passing motorists alike and, while "Horses Die Here" might have been more factually accurate, there is no hiding place from this reality when horses are trained on the track.

Here in UK, where most horses are trained at yards not co-located at a racecourse, injuries and fatalities also happen - away from the glare of the general public. Which is to say that we should not assume this is a problem Stateside to which we are immune.

Of course, the racing surface and the medication regime are areas of longstanding concern which are now being addressed, in part at least, as a consequence of HISA, a new entity seeking to unify protocols across America similar to the way BHA oversee here. Even on this, though, HISA has been legally challenged by horsepeople aghast at the fact they might need to change some of their methodologies. Not a strong look, alas.

Back on the track, the vets were omnipresent. Barn inspections, trot ups and trackwork scrutiny were the last acts of a programme of oversight begun in July.

In total there were 16 scratches from Friday's five-race main card, and many more on Saturday. Some were as a consequence of the natural attrition caused by a long season and the general scope for minor mishap in prepping horses for championship races; but many - too many for plenty of observers - were withdrawn at the behest of the on site vets despite protestations from connections. The upshot is certain to be a reluctance to travel next year for some, with costs estimated in the region of $70,000 all told. That's a bitter, and very expensive, pill to swallow for luckless owners and trainers, even those whose pockets are deeper than us mere mortals.

The Chalkfest

In the US, favourites win at a rate close to 40%, a figure nodding to the absence of a meaningful handicap program - instead preferring a large number of (sometimes very high value) claiming-based race conditions - and the erosion in average field size: small fields equal more winning favourites. But, with field sizes holding up fairly well even after the glut of scratches, this Breeders' Cup was the chalkiest* in the forty-year history of the event. [*the 'chalk' is the favourite, a reference to the good old days of boardmen on track - days long gone]

Saturday began with Big Evs winning the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 3.2/1 locally, a fantastic result for the brilliant Mick Appleby and his team. The Juvenile Fillies winner paid 7/1, Juvenile Fillies Turf winner 9.1/1 and the Juvenile winner Fierceness returned just better than 16/1 on track. Then it got top heavy...

The Ryan Moore-ridden and Aidan O'Brien-trained Unquestionable won the Juvenile Turf at 6/4 on the board to close out Friday's quintet of Cup races, and that began an almost unbroken run of success for horses at, or very close to, the top of the wagering lists.

Cody's Wish (more anon), Inspiral, Goodnight Olive, Master Of The Seas, Idiomatic, Auguste Rodin, White Abarrio and Elite Power all paid 3.3/1 or less - indeed, all bar the wide-drawn Master Of The Seas paid 2.6/1 or shorter. The one spot of respite came from 12/1 Turf Sprint winner Nobals so, if you were looking away from the top end and didn't find him, you were in plenty of betting bother. Signing in on that score.

The table below shows that not only was Saturday's card the lowest average mutuel return of any Breeders' Cup for three-year-old-plus races, but also the entire two-day event had the lowest average mutuel return since the meeting was extended to more than seven races (note the gaps in the first six rows of cells).

 

 

It was a year for keeping it simple, all right, and personally I was guilty of over-complication, as were many finer judges on site in Arcadia. It's very frustrating when it happens this way; as you can see from the full table above, it doesn't normally happen this way!

Vive Les Euros!

We Europeans, or British and Irish if you prefer, focus almost exclusively on the turf. And that's because the trainers who send horses across do likewise: we know these horses and the very fact that they're sent all that way - some of them even getting to run! - advertises their prospects.

But they don't typically perform so well. British or Irish-trained horses won two of the three Friday turf races, and ran second in the other; and three of the four Saturday turf races, and finished third and fourth in the other. In the races our local horses won, there were also four 1-2 finishes. That is almost unheard of dominance.

The Juvenile Turf Sprint was a trifecta for the raiders, which if you happened to select the right three of the six Euro participants (or all of them in combination) paid $1,378.40 for a dollar. Or £1,378.40 for a pound 😉

Aidan O'Brien had a meeting to remember even in the absence of River Tiber and Bolshoi Ballet. He still won both races that pair were engaged in (Juvenile Turf and Turf). As I wrote in the Breeders' Cup Compendium report - showing expert hindsight but little foresight - "Aidan’s record in Santa Anita Breeders’ Cups is also (relatively) pedestrian: five wins from 51, and just 3 from 39 since 2012. 2019 was a washout, as was 2014, and there was a single win apiece in 2016, 2013 and 2012. Put another way, Aidan has had just one winner from the last three Santa Anita Breeders’ Cups combined."

Fortunately, I was prudent enough to add a caveat: "Is that a quirk of a small sample size or something more material? In truth, more likely the former than the latter, but it is cause for pause."

That caveat was needed as the Big Guy from Ballydoyle, a nickname absolutely certain not to catch on, saddled two winners, two seconds, a third and a fourth from just eight runners. That, clearly, was a phenomenal performance, with Ryan steering the brace of gold medallists, notably Auguste Rodin in the Turf. It was a ride suggested by many as a genius effort, but it is rare to ride the rail in a US turf race and get the smooth transit he and his horse did; perhaps tellingly, it was French-based Italian Cristian Demuro, riding the Japanese horse Shahryar in America (!), who drifted away from the inside allowing Moore to save all the ground without losing any of the momentum. You make your own luck, as they say, and this was both good and a bit lucky.

Looking at the two-year-old division, it's clear that the North American cohort is a step behind their British and Irish counterparts in 2023, and that largely extends to the seniors, too. It will be interesting to see how the form converges a year from now.

White Abarrio a very grey look

The Breeders' Cup Classic, normally the ninth and final race on the Saturday Cup card, was run seventh in the batting order to accommodate TV schedules; and it delivered a result that, in truth, very few would have hoped for. The sport in the States is desperate to wriggle free of welfare and doping claims and has been unlucky a fair few times recently; but sometimes, as with Ryan in the Turf, you make your own luck.

So it was that Richard Dutrow Jr, warned off for ten years for a litany of medication violations, returned to training in February this year and saddled the Breeders' Cup Classic winner seven months later. To put that into context, Mahmood al Zarooni, the disgraced former Godolphin trainer (remember him?), was banned for eight years by the BHA in 2013: he returned to a more low key conditioner role in the United Arab Emirates in 2021, saddling just nine runners since.

Bizarrely, Dutrow Jr. inherited White Abarrio from Saffie Joseph, another controversial figure. In May this year, shortly before the Kentucky Derby, he was banned from making stakes entries in Kentucky and New York as a result of two of his horses dropping dead within 48 hours of each other; and, though subsequently reinstated, the constraint led to White Abarrio moving barns. Joseph had previously been suspended for 15 days (15 days?!) for another banned substance found in one of his horses in March of this year.

Frankly, the problem here is not with Dutrow Jr. especially, or with Joseph; nor is it with Bob Baffert or any other high profile trainer receiving doping/ medication suspensions. Rather, it is with the authorities which allow such violations to pass with derisory punishments like the one referenced above that scream, "crack on, we don't really care". It is to be hoped HISA will be able to introduce measures that significantly improve the reputation of US racing in this regard.

The Classic itself was an absorbing race, with two fancied speed horses duking it out on the front end until wilting, before the smooth travelling White Abarrio fended off a spirited effort from the Japanese runner Derma Sotogake, who might have won the Kentucky Derby had he not broken poorly and then had a bad trip. This was a massive effort on his first run since, six months later.

Joy and crushing despair for Cody's connections

On Saturday afternoon, the highlight for many at the Breeders' Cup was the tear-jerking heart-warming win of Cody's Wish, who got up in a protracted stretch duel with National Treasure to win the opening Dirt Mile. Cody's Wish is owned by Godolphin but he's named for Cody Dorman, a young man born with Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome, a debilitating condition that affects both physical and mental functions.

Cody's Wish was a reason for Cody to look forward, something to enjoy in what must have been an unimaginably difficult life for him and his family. Last year in Keeneland, Cody's Wish won the Dirt Mile and the outpouring of joy was immense; on Saturday, as Cody's horse gutsed it out to best his rival, the emotion surpassed even that of twelve months ago. It was a brilliantly bright day in a life of struggle.

And then, almost unbelievably, on Monday we learned that Cody had suffered a medical incident just a day after Santa Anita which claimed his young life a few weeks shy of his 18th birthday. What a dreadfully awful turn of events. Like everyone else, we send our sympathies and best wishes to Cody's family.

*

The 40th running of the Breeders' Cup was a celebration of the sport of horseracing that encompassed an impossible gamut of emotions. They say life begins at 40; we were reminded that it sometimes doesn't make it that far, and that, at the end of the day, racing is just racing no matter how much joy or pain it brings us.

- Matt

This affects all of us

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This affects you. And me.

It affects all of us, either directly or indirectly. So we need to take action.

At this stage, the action is very small but will make a difference.

I am talking about the impact of affordability checks on the sport of horseracing. And specifically about a petition that needs your support if you love racing and want to see it continue largely as you know it.

In the rest of this message, I'll explain my thoughts on the subject in more detail; but if you're in a hurry, please take (literally) 30 seconds to add your name to the 71,180 and rising who have already signed.

At 100,000 names, the petition must be considered for debate in Parliament. We need as many names as possible so that it is discussed in Parliament.

Here's the link - please do add your voice. As I outline below, I believe we're at a crossroads, not just for racing, but for freedom of choice in this country.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/649894

As promised, a little more detail on my own views regarding the situation.

How we got here is a bad look

Racing has, for a long time now, had a reliance - arguably an over-reliance - on bookmakers as its primary funding model. Bookmakers pay a levy (tax) on profits, and they also make media rights payments for broadcasting race video and audio both in shops and online. Of course, those profits come from punters enjoying their racing but losing money; and the media rights payments are for race streams so that punters can watch the action. That's (kind of) fair enough.

But we've seen in the recent past racing get behind much less defensible projects such as the retention of large stakes on Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) in betting shops. Again, racing was deriving a profit share from these machines and, as a consequence of this really poor strategic decision, irrevocably conjoined betting with skill to pure luck gambling in the eyes of many with political clout.

The fact is, it matters where the money that funds racing comes from. It matters that punters get to enjoy their recreational spend and, in my view, it matters that there is a chance to win; with FOBTs the only chance is to lose between 3% and 10% over time. By lobbying so vigorously for the maintenance of the huge 'per play' stakes, racing's parliamentary advocates implied that there is no difference between casino games and betting on horses. This, obviously and crucially, is wrong. There is a massive difference. It is the difference between certain loser and potential winner; between self-defeat and aspiration. To make those two poles one was a crushing misjudgement; moreover, they fooled nobody in government which voted overwhelmingly for the reduction in FOBT stakes which came into being in April 2019. Clearly, that hardly enhanced the reputation of the sport in the corridors of the decision-makers.

Alongside this borderline dereliction of duty was the unequivocal dereliction of duty of both the bookmaking industry and the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC), the latter an entity established to oversee the former. Prior to the arrival of Sarah Harrison to the Commission in late 2015, and pretty much since her unfortunate and untimely departure in early 2018, we've seen a painfully ineffectual regulator. Before Harrison's arrival, bookmakers failed routinely to undertake necessary checks on high staking gamblers. Indeed, they actively encouraged such play with VIP accounts, tickets to football, boxes at the races and so on. Often without ever making any enquiries as to source of funds or affordability. And the Commission palpably failed to police the situation.

During Sarah Harrison's tenure, heavy fines were meted out to a vast array of bookmakers for such failings. There was barely a single operator that wasn't guilty to some degree of neglecting to safeguard punters in the quest for profit.

But the real legacy of a decade, maybe more, of reckless abuse by operators, and an all gums and no teeth regulator, is a lasting distrust of both. What we are now seeing is a huge over-correction by UKGC under the wobbly (some might say desperate) stewardship of Andrew Rhodes, electing to burden the consumer with the failings of itself and the industry it purports to regulate.

Now we're here, everyone is on the back foot

So that's something of how we got to here, a landscape where everyone is on the back foot. As the betting industry has, like everything else, pivoted from offline to online, we've gone from almost zero regulatory oversight to the very real threat of choking nannyism.

A large factor in this is that the UK Gambling Commission is fighting its own existential battle, with many across the political spectrum calling for its winding up and for an ombudsman to be introduced in its place. This is a shame but reflects a catalogue of serious and ongoing failings. Perhaps UKGC perceive their best route back to vague respectability to be a belts, braces and bicycle clips measure like affordability checks; if they do, that in itself demonstrates they are not fit for purpose.

UKGC has undertaken not one but two requests for feedback from the betting public in recent years. They have been inundated with a record number of responses, the vast majority of which are understood to have been for a retention of the status quo. The Commission have so far refused to share the responses in spite of 'freedom of information' requests, and have stated they will not release any such information until after a decision has been made on affordability checks. In a court of law, this might be considered to be withholding evidence. Of course, I'm not a lawyer - very, very far from it - so let's consider this no more than conjecture on my part. There is (a) smoke(screen) here, though, regardless of whether there's any underlying fire.

One other key element is that racing, and betting operators, have long since resisted any move to counter restrictions on betting accounts. These prevent winning punters from getting a bet of more than a few pence on which, after a certain liability (say, £1000) seems reasonable - they are businesses, after all - but prior to that point restrictions are at best against the spirit of fair play. Worse, many bettors are finding their losing accounts restricted! And most trading floor veterans would agree that the algorithms making these wonky calls are too defensive. Bizarre.

So, when those self-same operators, and the racing industry, come out now arguing that affordability checks will lead to bettors going to the black market, they are conveniently ignoring that that has been happening for some considerable time as a result of account restrictions. Even racing cannot have its cake and eat it.

Thus, the current clamour for a 'right to bet' is actually a call for a 'right to lose', which almost amounts to the same thing for many bettors but removes those crucial elements of aspiration and skill play.

Let's helicopter up

That's so much bluster about the parish of racing and betting, but let's zoom out a bit because there's more in play here.

Geegeez.co.uk has always advocated for accountability in its editorial, which is why we provide information - data, racecards, reports - and not tips. We treat our readers and subscribers as grown ups and we have an expectation that they behave as such. So there's no blame here: you make a bet and it loses, it's on you. Cool? Good.

That comes from a core personal belief that, for good or bad, we own what we do. When it turns out well, yay us; when it's bad, regroup and do it differently next time. But we own it. That's only common sense, isn't it?

Governments, especially Conservative ones (though party politics are irrelevant here), should allow grown ups to be grown ups notwithstanding that a small minority will be unable to do that. The upshot is that proportional checks and balances are sensible and necessary. Proportional being the operative word.

We're currently witnessing the threat of sweeping disproportionality (affordability checks) around what has become a political hot potato; and racing's previous forays into Westminster have lost it many friends. Recent attempts at rebuilding bridges seem to have made some progress, thankfully; how much we'll discover when the announcements are made regarding the detail of the forthcoming gambling legislation.

In my opinion, governments should, as far as possible, be 'laissez faire' with consenting adults' rights to spend their money as they wish. I don't want to be told what to do with my dough, and I'd guess you don't either. The current proposals are a serious encroachment on that fundamental civil liberty so, while I find it somewhere between sad and tragic at how we've ended up here, we need to stand up for more than just a right to bet/lose/win; we actually need to tell government to mind its own beeswax a bit and let us be.

Signing this petition will help to ensure that Westminster and the UKGC hears what ordinary punters like you and me think of their draconian proposals; and it will also, I hope, offer pause for thought about the role, and scope, of government intervention in the legal behaviours of UK citizens. We do not need to be nannied, and the tail should not wag the dog.

Here's the petition link again - please do sign it. (It'll take 30 seconds to sign, and then you'll need to click a link in an email they'll send you to verify yours is a real email address).

Please also encourage anyone else you know who loves racing to add their voice to this genuinely important statement. Now is not a time to assume others will do this for us. Your small action here will count. Thank you.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/649894

Matt

Monday Musings: They Did It!

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So Auguste Rodin, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore did it, writes Tony Stafford. At the forefront of the Irish stable and its Coolmore ownership team’s £2.7 million return from their trip to Santa Anita, the dual Derby winner emerged as a true champion, not least because of the courage of his trainer.

When the son of Deep Impact trailed home a distant last in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot following his odds-on success at the Curragh, the knives were out.

The Derby form is rubbish they said – “when isn’t it?”, you might ask – and even his win dropped to ten furlongs for the Irish Champion Stakes still had its detractors.

But now, fully justifying (more of that word later) the decision to skip Ascot’s Champion Stakes day and the almost certain heavy ground – I sincerely believe the authorities need to do something about that – he came onto fast turf at Santa Anita and showed the sort of instant acceleration that has impressed the Ballydoyle cognoscenti from day one.

As ever with Aidan, the back-up riders are just as vital. Didn’t Padraig Beggy in 2017 and, three years later, Emmet McNamara emerge from the Chorus Line on the home gallops to win the Derby? They partnered back-up horses, Wings Of Eagles (Beggy) and Serpentine for McNamara, only to disappear from view pretty much thereafter, left with just their memories of that incredible career-garnishing achievement.

There was a bit of a Beggy/McNamara element to this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but it wasn’t that Aidan picked from the 70 or so riders that normally partner first and second lots of the incredibly talented team back home.

This time he “borrowed” a young jockey that has quickly got to near the top of the Irish riding tree, from son Joseph. Dylan Browne McMonagle – still only 20 – has ridden 59 winners in Ireland this year from 539 rides, putting him third only behind champion Colin Keane and Billy Lee.

In a year made difficult for Aidan by the long-term injury early in the year sustained by Wayne Lordan, you might have thought the master of Ballydoyle would have cast his net a little wider. From his 105 domestic wins, Ryan Moore has travelled over for 52 from 123 at 42% and ultra-reliable Seamie Heffernan has 32 from 150 at a more than handy 21%. With Wayne eight from 54 in the spring, there’s just 13 to go round. Surely Dylan would have picked up the pieces. He did, one win from nine rides.

His employment by O’Brien in the UK has been even more sparing, just a single ride on Champions Day at Ascot on Broome, and there he was again on Saturday on the same quirky old veteran apparently making up the numbers in the deep Turf field.

At Ascot, over what has become more his distance in the near two-mile Stayers Championship race, he faded to finish sixth of eight. His perceived role at Santa Anita was to help make the running and ensure a decent pace for the favourite. In the end, Dylan’s knowledge of the horse gained from Ascot did not help at the start as the seven-year-old dwelt as the rest of the field hurried on their way.

Maybe it was good fortune, but McMonagle didn’t rest on his laurels, trying to get to the front and Broome was prominent until understandably beginning to weaken as the last turn approached. Inevitably he fell into the laps of still travelling rivals and certainly Frankie Dettori on King Of Steel and Jim Crowley on Mostahdaf took a rapid diversion to the outside to avoid him.

The trigger effect was a nice gap on the inside. If ever you needed to know how much distance a horse can lose in the US when going wide on the bend this was evident as without doing too much, Ryan, having been some way back in seventh or eighth, was able to enter the straight just behind the lead.

The rail runner route was never more famously displayed than by Calvin Borel in his successive Kentucky Derby wins in 2009/2010, and when it works it looks very clever. Ryan confessed there was an element of good fortune in it but, again, to have a horse talented enough to accept the invitation is rare.

Clearly, Aidan O’Brien doesn’t need to employ a rider regularly to appreciate his talent and here we come to the day before when I’m sure McMonagle must have feared the worst when the local veterinary panel deemed River Tiber unfit to run in Friday’s Juvenile Turf race.

O’Brien took it on the chin in a little more restrained manner than Jessica Harrington, there with an owner who had nothing else to show for their trip. Aidan, of course, had back-up once more but, with Ryan Moore’s first pick an absentee, Frankie Dettori was booked for second string Unquestionable with McMonagle on longshot Mountain Bear.

Although only a winner of a maiden race previously, Unquestionable made plenty of friends with his second, a length behind Richard Hannon-trained Rosellion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting. Ryan promptly pulled rank leaving Dettori without a mount, unless…

Well, “unless” didn’t happen, and while Ryan came the inside route to get by the Americans in the straight while Dylan went widest of all, collecting with a flying finish the not inconsiderable runner-up prize of £141k as the trainer supplied the one-two.

If the Coolmore partners didn’t have enough pockets to cram the £2.7 million (less deductions!) into by 24 hours later, I’m sure Joseph’s protégé would have been planning what he might be doing with what must have been an unexpected windfall.

European horses once again made the Americans look ordinary in most of the turf races, with Mick Appleby’s Big Evs more than living up to his sprinting prowess back home by giving the home speedsters a lesson in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. If Godolphin had a quietish time of it, the identity of Big Evs’ sire, their first-season sensation Blue Point, would have kept them smiling wherever Sheikh Mo and co were last weekend.

While the two best male and female stars from the Ballydoyle academy were back home munching away unaware of their joint objectives in next year’s 2000 and 1000 Guineas, their paternal relatives, Just FYI in the Juvenile Fillies’ and Hard To Justify in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf which followed, were adding both lustre and the degree of versatility to their sire.

City Of Troy’s and Opera Singer’s return to action will be awaited with interest. I can tell you, if you are being impatient, the first weekend in May will come around quicker this time than any year previously. Then we can see if my exaggerated comments about City Of Troy are indeed Justified.

- TS

Monday Musings: The Rising Star of the Rising Sun

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Back in the spring, the racing world, both in Europe and the United States, was in a state of panic, writes Tony Stafford. The cause? The belief that horses raised and trained in Japan were becoming impossible to beat when they travel over to Dubai or indeed the United States for the Breeders’ Cup in the late autumn.

This fear was exemplified by the remarkable four-year-old colt Equinox, easy winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic over a mile and a half on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan last March. Soon in the lead he wasn’t remotely bothered to see off Ralph Beckett’s smart colt Westover, winner of last year’s Irish Derby and, more recently, runner-up to Ace Impact in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three weeks ago.

Equinox was given an official rating as the world’s best racehorse after that performance. Yesterday at Tokyo racecourse, he made his record six wins and two second places in just eight runs, taking his earnings above £10 million. Then again, prizemoney over there is pretty good.

Before Dubai, Equinox’s last win had been in the Japan Cup and that remains his immediate target even though he had been eligible both for the Breeders’ Cup meeting and the Arc. In between Dubai and yesterday, he raced only once, picking up a handy £1.4 million when a narrow winner at Hanshin.

Yesterday’s prize was similarly remunerative and while he had only a narrow margin to spare back in June, there was never a doubt in regular jockey Christophe Lemaire’s mind that he wouldn’t win. He was slowly away, which needed the jockey to alter planned tactics. Coming wide, he took the lead inside the last furlong, then comfortably held off the five-year-old mare Through Seven Seas.

Lemaire has a great relationship with many leading Japanese trainers, so it was no surprise, given his status as one of the top jockeys in France, that when she was aimed at this month’s Arc, he was booked for the ride. Through Seven Seas finished fourth, three lengths behind the winner and barely a length adrift of Westover.

Although that was an excellent run, it didn’t alter the fact that no Japanese-trained horse has ever won Europe’s autumn all-aged middle-distance championship.

The form lines suggest Equinox probably would have broken the duck for Japan had he not been reserved to clean up millions of Yen at home. The Japan Cup is expected to be at his mercy once more in a month’s time.

Equinox’s name on yesterday’s results jolted me into having a look at the Japanese representation in this week’s Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita and the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Saturday week. That left me with the strong conclusion that a fair degree of consultation goes on behind the scenes before overseas plans are confirmed, or should I say permitted?.

I made it that there are nine Japanese horses entered at this stage on Saturday’s card with only one on Friday. There is never more than two in one race. In the Melbourne Cup tomorrow week, there’s just a single Japanese entry,

I’ve noticed several mares are scheduled to take part while all the male horses are entires, with six-year-old Ushba Tesoro a prime contender for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Winner of his last five, that includes a comfortable success, coming from far back, over the Crisfords’ fellow six-year-old Algiers last March in the Dubai World Cup, a race normally a cinch for the American raiders.

He had a soft warm-up, collecting a puny 250 grand for a little exercising of his ageing limbs in a race in the summer, his one run since Dubai. With £7 million already in the bank, another £2.6 million wouldn’t come amiss before he goes off to stud. He’s Japanese-bred on both sides of his pedigree and as such will be in big demand when he does retire.

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup meeting in Keeneland didn’t seem to interest Japanese stables, with just one token unplaced runner on the entire two days of action. The previous year in Del Mar, though, two females were successful, Loves Only You in the Filly and Mare Turf and Marche Lorraine in the Distaff on dirt.

Both were five-year-olds and, interestingly, 50/1 shot Marche Lorraine was ridden by Oisin Murphy, who might not have had such a long-term association with Japan as Lemaire, but he has spent plenty of time there in recent years. Marche Lorraine, incidentally, is by Ushba Tesoro’s sire, Orfevre.

The Japanese horse whose chance I like best is Songline in the Mile on Saturday. Normally this five-year-old mare – yet another one – would be facing a formidable European contingent, but after Paddington’s defection, there’s just two Godolphin UK runners, one each from Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor, and the French filly Kelina. Clearly the Americans are reacting to the criticism of and danger of injury too on the dirt tracks that have been the foundation of the US sport for more than a century, targeting the increased number of turf opportunities.

The 2021 2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas has been in decent form this year but I have greater regard for this year’s 1000 heroine Mawj, trained by bin Suroor. She didn’t run between Newmarket in the spring and two weeks ago at Keeneland. Ridden there by Oisin, continuing the association cemented in the season’s first classic, he partnered the filly for a comfortable success in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup.

Songline, though, another multi-million earner, has had an excellent season at home, winning two late spring Grade 1’s in Tokyo before returning from her break with an unlucky nose second also at Tokyo three weeks ago. This is one race where there are two Japanese entries; the other, Win Carnation, was fifth in that Tokyo race, starting 18/1 compared with Songline’s SP of even money.

Charlie Appleby does well at the Breeders’ Cup, especially with his juveniles, and he was delighted when front-running Ancient Wisdom stayed on well to win the Kameko Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday. The significance for Charlie was that it was a first Group 1 winner for the stable since May, and at least it will send him across the water with renewed optimism.

Ancient Wisdom’s previous run had resulted in a stylish, also front-running, win in a Group 3 at Newmarket on Dewhurst Stakes Day. The brave course for next spring would be to tackle City Of Troy, the unquestioned juvenile champion of 2023. As they say, someone needs to do it.

The runner-up on Saturday at Doncaster was the David Menuisier colt Devil’s Point, a wonderful result for always-enthusiastic owner Clive Washbourn. The French-born trainer could hardly have gone into the race in better form, having won two stakes races the day before at Chantilly and another double five days earlier at Saint-Cloud, including the Group 1 Criterium International with Sunday. Three of the four winners were two-year-olds.

The main Aidan O’Brien hope on the Santa Anita card has to be dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin who erased the memory of a sub-standard run at Ascot in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with a smart win in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Fourth that day was King Of Steel, the Epsom runner-up who won for Frankie Dettori in the Champion Stakes at Ascot a couple of weeks ago.

Roger Varian also has the Amo Racing three-year-old entered for the Classic on dirt on Saturday, but I assume he takes on his two-time nemesis, although he did finish third when Auguste was tailed off in the King George behind Hukum. There’s a lot at stake for both these smart horses, their owners and trainers this weekend.

- TS

Poor Value Favourites in NH Racing

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I wonder, how many readers back favourites from time to time? Is there anyone reading this who only bets on favourites? It certainly would be interesting to know, writes Dave Renham. Maybe you'll share your answer in the comments below this article. I have two reasons for starting with those questions: firstly, I am genuinely interested to know; and, secondly, this article is based around favourites.

I think it is fair to say that favourites have had a bit of a 'bad rap' in the last ten to twenty years, mainly due to punters being bombarded, correctly in the main, with the concept of value. Thirty or forty years ago I am guessing that most punters had less of an understanding of how to assess value prices. Their mindset would probably be more attuned to winners – if they picked enough winners, they would make money. Of course, we know that this is not the case. You can have 50% winners and still lose money; conversely, you can have 15% winners and make a good profit. I still smile to myself when any of my non-racing friends go to a race meeting and ring me up with the question, “Dave, can you pick me some winners please?”

My reply is always the same, “if you want to back winners then back the favourite – this will give you more winners in the long term”. I do clarify that by telling them that is not the right way to bet, but if they want ‘winners’ then my answer gives them the best chance of achieving that on the day in question. And for once a year punters, this is probably the smartest way to bet - trust to luck. But for those of us more regularly engaged with the puzzle, we need to show more discernment.

With the nights drawing in, many of us in the racing world are turning our attention away from the turf flat season and starting to think National Hunt, and the great meetings and races that will take place over the next six months. In this article, then, the focus will be on National Hunt racing and favourites. More specifically, I will be looking to highlight market leaders that the data suggest are showing as offering poor value. Data have been taken from the last six full calendar years of UK NH racing spanning 2017 to 2022, and I will be sharing the results for clear favourites only (excluding races with joint- or co-favourites).

So why look for a race with a poor value favourite? Well, it is not because I am suggesting laying such a horse, although that may be an option in some cases. Rather, it is to do with the fact that if the favourite offers poor value, then there must be value elsewhere in the race on another runner, or runners. Before I start looking for examples of poor value favourites, let me share the breakdown of win strike rate for favourites by year:

 

 

As the chart shows, the strike rates do not fluctuate too much, with a difference of only 2.7% between 2022 (the year with the highest SR%) and 2020 (the year with the lowest).

Here is the overall record of NH clear favourites over these six years:

 

Essentially this is not a bad starting point in terms of returns, with losses of just over 2½ pence in the £. Hence taking National Hunt favourites as a whole, in terms of betting to Betfair SP, they are not bad value. To give some context, the results for backing all fifth favourites would have lost you 7½ pence in the £, sixth favourites 12p in the £. Suddenly 2½p losses look quite good!

So, we have our benchmark figures here for favourites – strike rate of around 37.5%, losses around 2½p in the £, and an A/E index of 0.94. Let's now break this overall group into subsets.

 

Performance in NH Races by Age of favourite

The first area I want to look at is the age of the favourite in question. Below is a bar chart showing the win percentages for different ages of favourites. There is quite a clear pattern as you will see:

 

 

It should be noted that three- and four-year-old favourites make up only 10.6% of all NH favourites and hence I am more interested in the correlation between favourites aged five and older. As the graph indicates, favourites aged five have the best strike rate and, thereafter, that percentage gradually drops for subsequent age groups. Favourites aged ten and older are clearly the worst performing animals in terms of strike rate.

So, have we potentially found a group of favourites that are poor value? We need to see the overall figures for favourites aged ten or older to see if the drop in strike rate effects the bottom line:

 

 

As shown, being of that vintage does affect the bottom line, with losses of over 11 pence in the £. Also, the A/E index has dropped to 0.87 which is a secondary indicator of poorer value.

Interestingly, these older favourites have performed worse in chases than hurdles. Chases make up most of the races with older favourites and the chase stats read 247 wins from 807 runners (SR 30.6%) for losses of £146.28 (ROI -18.3%); A/E index 0.82.

While I was trawling through some of the data, I noticed a horse called Midnight Moss who was a ten-year-old last year (2022). He started favourite in his last three races of 2022 (all chases) with the following results:

 

Clearly punters were happy to keep giving this fella another chance, but in hindsight these races would have given us a good opportunity to look for value elsewhere. For the record, Midnight Moss has run once as an 11yo in 2023... and yes, you’ve guessed it, he started favourite and was beaten into second again.

 

Performance in NH Races of Favourites that were narrowly beaten last time out

The next group of favourites I want to look at is those runners which were just touched off last time out. I'm including horses that were either beaten by a nose, a short head, a head or a neck in their last race. Here are the figures for that subset of runners who started clear favourite next time out:

 

One would expect the strike rate to be decent, and it is, but the returns are very poor for these favourites. Losses of over 15p in the £ is extremely hefty considering the overall stats shared earlier. This looks to me a classic case of horses being overbet, the theory being that they ran so well last time that they have a very good chance of getting their head in front this time. And so, despite a decent enough win rate, their actual starting prices have averaged out to be much shorter than their true odds of winning.

Before moving on, if we focus on handicap races only then the results for these narrowly beaten last time out runners who start favourite get significantly worse. Horses that were beaten a neck or less in a handicap last time out, and who are racing in a handicap again as the clear favourite have produced the following results:

 

Losses of nearly 28p in the £ are quite shocking for this group of NH favourites.

 

Performance in NH Races of Favourites having their second career start

Horses having just their second run are still relative unknown quantities. Plenty of horses run well on their first start but fail to back it up, whereas others run poorly first time out and then improve out of all recognition next time. It makes sense therefore that horses that start favourite on their second career run may not be the best betting proposition. That was my theory at least; below is the evidence, the table showing favourites who have previously run just once:

 

The strike rate here is high, a fair bit above the average for all favourites; but returns are relatively poor – losses approaching 10p in the £. The 0.87 A/E figure is low also. As with horses that were narrowly beaten LTO, this again looks a case of a group of horses being overbet driving the prices below their true odds. It is also worth sharing that horses which won on debut lose a little bit more again when favourite next time (losses of just over 10p in the £).

Performance in NH Races of Heavy ground Favourites

To begin this section, here are the win strike rates for NH favourites in terms of going:

 

 

The figures are relatively even – the best strike rate has occurred when the going has been the firmer side of good. Having said that, this firmer going is relatively rare, making up just 3% of all NH races. In terms of races on heavy ground, clear favourites have also done well, winning slightly above the norm and losing backers just 2p for every £1 staked.

I am guessing most people will be thinking that previous heavy ground winners are a positive if racing again in such conditions especially if starting favourite (me included). However, this has not been the case as the stats show:

 

Losses are close to 10p in the £ for these past heavy ground winners.

On the other hand, clear favourites have fared far better on heavy ground if they are yet to have won a race on this going, as these figures clearly show:

 

Hence, the data for these heavy ground favourites seem clear-cut: be apprehensive of a previous heavy ground winner whereas don’t immediately rule out if not a previous heavy ground winner. What is most interesting, perhaps, is that the win rate of heavy ground win 'virgins' is also higher than those to have won in the deep mud previously.

 

Performance of Favourites in Handicap chases

Maiden Chasers

Finally, in terms of hard data, I want to explore certain favourites in handicap chases. Firstly, let us consider the performance of handicap chase favourites who had never previously won a race over these bigger obstacles. To qualify they must have raced at least once over fences in their career:

 

These losses are 7p in the £ above the average figure for all NH favourites, which means once again there should be value by ignoring the favourite and looking at the other runners in the race.

Let's further consider the subset of these handicap chase favourites who had not only failed to win a chase but in all previous chase runs had not been placed either:

 

Logic suggested to me that these runners might perform relatively poorly as regards favourites and the figures bear that out. Sometimes results turn out like you would expect them to!

*

This article has highlighted several cohorts of potentially poor value NH favourites based on the last six calendar years of UK jump racing. Now, as I always say, articles like this are reporting on the past; there are no guarantees that the figures shared will be replicated in the future. However, most of the sample sizes are decent and the angles are underpinned by credible logic, which gives much more credence to figures. If I was sharing favourite results with only 50 qualifying runners, or where I was unable to explain the results, then it would be right to be sceptical.

Before wrapping up there are a couple of other ideas I have had in regard to finding potentially poor value favourites and both involve using Geegeez tools. The first is looking for NH favourites who display a negative run style. Imagining a two mile handicap chase at Hexham as an example, if we look at the run style figures going back to 2016 (8+ runners) in the Pace Analyser tool, we see the following:

 

 

Clearly this course and distance favours front runners/prominent racers. If the favourite happened to be a habitual hold up horse, then this may be an opportunity where the value lies elsewhere. Using Query Tool, here are the results for this group of favourites, by run style (4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 mid-div, 1 held up). There was just one winner from the twelve clear favourites to race in the latter part of the field in these races, whereas those favourites on the lead or prominent won ten from 22 for a better than 22 point profit (ROI 100%) at SP.

 

 

The second idea involves using the Instant Expert tab. The idea behind this one is to look for favourites that do not have many ‘greens’ within the traffic light ranking system. Green data is positive, and here is a recent example where the traffic light system seemed to highlight a poor value favourite. The race in question was the 3:33 at Wetherby on 18th October 2023. Here is a screenshot of the Instant Expert screen for that contest:

 

The favourite was Deyrann De Carjac, but looking along his row, we can see no greens, three reds and two ambers. Now, in this case the figures are looking at win percentages across each horses’ entire career. Whether this is the optimum setting, I'm not sure. You could look at placed percentages instead, or cut the data to the last two years, race code to chase, select handicaps only etc. However, based on the long-term win percentages for the runners in this race, Deyrann De Carjac looked a poor value favourite. Of the remaining runners Mackenberg priced at 15/2 with four greens was arguably offering some value.

Even looking at handicap chase form in the last two years only, Deyrann De Carjac was unappealing, and Mackenberg well suited to conditions:

 

The result of race was:

 

As we can see, Deyrann De Carjac was last of the five finishers. Also, for eagle-eyed readers you may have noticed that he was a ten-year-old racing in a chase – a poor value favourite stat I shared earlier. Mackenberg didn’t win to give the ‘dream’ result but ran well to finish second beaten a short head.

I appreciate this is just one example and this is a very tricky one for which to collect historical data. However, as I said before, there is plenty of logic to suggest it ought pay off in the long term: these horses are showing themselves to be either unsuited or unproven against today's conditions and they're being sent off favourite. That doesn't appeal to me!

I hope you have found this article interesting and also illuminating. If you have any ideas to test for poor value favourites, please drop them in the comments.

- DR

Monday Musings: Farewell with a flourish

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They were all at Ascot on Saturday for Frankie Day part two, 27 years after the seven out of seven, writes Tony Stafford. But in many ways his double there, including the Champion Stakes on King of Steel, was even more compelling, after his cumulative intervening effect on the sport of horse racing. It’s a business too, and these days the financial aspect has become even more crucial at all levels.

Later, in the evening, many of the highest in the land of horse racing had transferred the 30 miles east to London’s Mayfair and were in attendance as Frankie Dettori joined Ronan Keating on stage in a duet at Grosvenor House. According to one friend – my recurring ailment precluded me from either engagement – he didn’t do a bad job of it either.

https://youtu.be/caWQViU6FSs?si=r_APIh1S_t4bc2W7

Frankie certainly knows how to maximise his marketability. At £15k for a top table for ten and 10 grand for one of the remaining of 70-odd in the cheap (sic) seats, it was a high-profile and highly remunerative affair for the jockey, and the hotel; presumably also for Mr Keating and the band, and event organisers Esmond Wilson and James Wintle, son of my late, great friend Dave Wintle, who would have loved to have been there.

There were some who had questioned his idea of a lucrative “retirement” extravaganza only days after the revelation that he would be riding on through the winter in Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, but I thought that was already well documented. Apparently not, and sometimes things you had heard as early as York in August to be fact, hadn’t filtered through to the general public.

My on-the-spot informant, Shaun Ellery, had also been a close friend of Dave Wintle’s and a fair few of the older attendees on Saturday evening might well have taken the trek west to visit Shaun’s Cardiff spot, The Bank Café Bar, in the 1990’s and 2000’s.

Frankie of course is from the next generation, but he’s now in his early 50’s with no sign of slowing down in his life or of being diminished in his ability in the saddle.

If his win in the Champion Stakes, when Man Of Steel came through late to catch Via Sistina on a day when all the other races were won from the front, seemed pre-ordained, it also probably owed a little to good fortune, a recurring theme through his career.

Just as Oisin Murphy sent the comfortably-travelling Via Sistina – also coming from the rear – into the lead on the outside at the furlong pole, he dropped his whip. From there the filly seemed to be in quicksand – it was testing ground anyway – hanging right. Frankie spotted the weakness and pounced.

It made a massive difference in prestige terms to owner Kia Joorabchian of Amo Racing, and trainer Rogar Varian, as well as the jockey and stable staff. The winner’s prize of £737,000 would probably not have been too far removed from the entire amount generated by the Grosvenor House bash, one way or another.

But here comes a supreme irony. If the whip episode hadn’t happened, then the first prize rather than £279k for second, might well have gone to Mrs R G Hillen, owner of Via Sistina. Coincidentally, Mrs Becky Hillen, wife of bloodstock agent Steve Hillen, is none other than James Wintle’s sister!

The first prize would have been nice, of course, but Via Sistina, bought originally for 5,000gns at the 2019 December yearling sales by Steve Hillen, must rank as one of the bargains of the century. The 279 grand for Saturday’s supreme effort – and a magnificent training achievement for George Boughey – has taken her career earnings to £674,000 from 13 races, with five wins and as many places.

Originally with Joe Tuite, who retired from training after the filly’s initial unsuccessful run last year, she won two of seven races for him – I wonder what Joe’s thinking now? Since switching to Boughey, she has never been out of the first three, winning the Pretty Polly at Leopardstown (Group1) and two more races, at Group 2 and Group 3 respectively.

She goes to the December sales and in these days of extravagant demand for hard-running fillies and mares, another massive payday can be anticipated.

I mentioned above the financial difficulties for owners in these days of inflation, high fuel costs for horse transportation and administration fees. Even a trainer at the top like William Haggas must be aware of costs. I recall him and Richard Hannon both being concerned early this year about not having full stables.

In William’s case it was because he didn’t have enough highly-skilled staff at the time to deal with more horses than he felt was viable. Now he tells me this week that when it came to deciding whether to sell at the Horses In Training sale, he needed to be aware of the potential costs for an owner balanced by whether the horse in question was worth retaining.

He said that if he was unsure about an unraced horse winning even a small race, balanced by the amount it would cost to achieve it, he would probably recommend taking up the sale option. Fortunately, for William’s owners, there is a demand for horses from his yard, both from smaller stables in the UK and overseas buyers.

The Horses in Training sale has always been one of my favourite weeks of the season and not least because of the days when I used to loiter on the final day for the drafts of Cheveley Park Stud and the Aga Khan’s lesser individuals to go through the ring.

Sometimes, I would pick up unsold lots privately for 500 quid from Cheveley Park - rather than the stud take them home – or even for nothing in the case of the Aga Khan “boucher” (butcher) horses, as the owner described them to me. He would hardly have wanted to send them back to France to end up on a meat counter.

I recall I did have to cough up £500 for Karaylar from the Aga Khan, but he proved a great buy, unlike most of the others! He became one of David Batey’s first 25 winners, all preserved for history in a video produced for the owner. All bar the last had been sourced by me and trained by Wilf Storey.

Karaylar’s four winning siblings were all sprinters and never tried jumping. Karaylar wasn’t quick, but won twice at Sedgefield, including a John Wade sponsored selling handicap hurdle final over 2m5f and worth £7,000 to the winner, a nice pot in 1996. Wilf truly was (and still is!) a magician.

Group 1 winning trainer Dylan Cunha is hoping to achieve a similar level in the UK as at home in South Africa. When he settles down after Saturday’s dual ending of England’s hopes in two World Cups (cricket and rugby) he will continue moving his string of horses the few hundred yards down the road to his new base in William Jarvis’s yard, Phantom House’s long-time incumbent retiring at the end of the season.

In a year when Tattersalls October Yearling Book 1 sale averaged almost a quarter of a million pounds per horse, and the overall four books still averaged 100 grand despite a falloff in parts of Books 3 and 4, Cunha did some serious shopping.

“We just happened to be there when everyone seemed to have disappeared. We got a nice bunch, in terms of the individuals and the prices we paid that day. Overall, we managed to get 19 at the various sales, and I’m delighted with that.”

Here’s a trainer going places.

- TS

Steamers and Drifters: Part 3

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I was originally not going to do a ‘part 3’, but in the comments a reader asked about early morning odds and if there was any data available in connection with price movement, writes Dave Renham. As that was data I could access, I thought I would do some digging and share my findings. So here goes...

As in the previous two pieces I am focusing on flat and all weather racing in the UK spanning five years from 2018 to 2022. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

If you missed those articles, you can read the overview one here, and the second part here.

 

Change from Early Odds to Starting Price

To begin with I want to look at early morning odds versus opening show odds. Later on, I will be comparing some of this early odds data with SP. As I alluded to in parts one and two the opening show tends to be around ten minutes before the start of the race. Early morning odds tend to be available around 9am. Indeed, these days most bookmakers price up the night before. Alas, I do not have data for this.

Below is a graphic comparing early morning odds to opening show where I am looking at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same price, or lengthen in price:

 

 

As we can see, nearly 53% of all horses drift / lengthen in price, compared with 36.4% who shorten. Roughly one in nine runners see their price stay the same. These figures follow the pattern of previous research but the differential between drifters and shorteners is much bigger.

These data show us that Early Morning Odds are essentially poor value. If your only option is to bet ‘early’ then I would urge you to use a bookmaker that offers BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). If you can’t, then I would suggest you do not make the wager at early prices. Regularly ‘taking’ Early Odds will probably lose money for over 95% of punters.

When comparing handicaps with non-handicaps the percentages splits are virtually identical (in handicaps 52.7% of horses drift, in non-handicaps it is 52.4%.) so the market behaves in a very similar way from Early Odds to Opening Show regardless of race type.

 

Effect of Early Odds price movement on Strike Rate and Profitability

Now I want to look at the effect price movement from Early Odds to Opening Show has on strike rate and profit/loss. In terms of profit/loss I am going to calculate returns to Betfair Starting Price. I have split the runners like I did earlier into three groups – horses that shorten in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’, those that stay the same price, and those that lengthen in price.

 

 

There is the same win percentage pattern here that we saw when looking at Opening Odds versus SP in the previous articles: horses that shorten in price have comfortably the best strike rate. In fact, those that shorten are almost twice as likely to win as those horses that drift. In terms of returns to Betfair Starting Price, horses that shortened in price edged it; but there is less than 1% (1p in the £) between the three groups.

So, we have a very even looking starting point in terms of returns / value. Let's push on...

 

Horses that lengthened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

I want to look in more detail at horses that either drifted in price from Early Odds to Opening Show Odds or went the other way, i.e. shortened in price. Drifters first. I want to know what percentage of these horses continued to drift in price from Opening Show to SP, having already drifted from the morning price to the first one available on the show ten minutes or so before the 'off'. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we can see, 42.1% of horses that lengthened in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’ continued to drift out in price. So, there is more chance that the drift will continue compared with the other two scenarios. Roughly a third of these horses shortened, while a quarter remained the same price.

Below are the strike rates and returns for this cohort:

 

 

Don’t be fooled by thinking the best value has been with the horses that initially lengthened in price and then stayed the same odds. These figures include BSP winners at prices of 1000.0, 538.81, 403.45 and 358.50. Taking those out the ROI was around -6%.

 

Horses that have shortened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

A look at the converse group next, those shortening from the morning to opening show, to give us a comparison. Firstly, a look at what happened between Opening Show and SP in terms of percentage splits:

 

 

Horses that shorten from Early Odds to Opening Show are still more likely to subsequently drift than to continue to shorten. However, the percentages for the horses that shortened and those that drifted are the closest they have been in any of the comparisons made, either in this article or the previous two – there is less than a 5% differential between the groups.

Strike rates and returns for these runners are below:

 

 

The strike rates are much higher in this table than the previous one and it seems that horses that shorten initially and then drift on course are slightly better value than the rest. This time the figures for the ‘best’ group are not skewed by huge 300.0 plus BSP winners.

 

Early priced favourites

This is a new departure in terms of what I have looked at previously but I thought it would be interesting to see what happened to horses that were initially favourite on the 'morning line'. I have focused on those horses that were solely at the head of the betting market (no joint or co-favourites) in the morning. Firstly, a look at how all such runners fared:

 

 

The strike rate exceeds 30% which suggests most of the horses remained as favourite. Losses are very modest at just over 2p in the £. If we split these by race type, we get the following:

 

 

Horses that were clear favourite in non-handicaps as the markets opened in the morning have got close to breaking even, which is eye-catching. The difference in strike rate is to be expected, but I had expected that the returns would be very close to the same.

Earlier I suggested that most of the early favourites are likely to have remained favourite at the off (SP) – let's see if that assertion was correct:

 

 

As expected, the figures back up the hypothesis. Nearly two thirds of these runners remained clear favourite at the start of the race and 86.7% of them were either clear favourite, joint favourite or 2nd favourite.

What was even more interesting, though, is what I discovered when I looked at the profit/loss figures in terms of their final market position. Horses that ended up outside the top two in the betting (eg. 3rd fav+ at SP) edged into profit. The strike rate was down as you would expect at 13.1%, (530 wins from 3804 runners, around one winner in eight), but a miniscule profit of £5.41 (ROI +0.1%) was achieved. We have seen in the first two articles that drifters have tended to offer more value – here is another case in point, albeit not a bankable one in isolation.

 

Trainers – Early Odds v SP

To finish off this piece I want to look at some raw trainer data, comparing their respective runners' Early Odds to SP. I have chosen 45 trainers and compared win strike rates and A/E indices for their runners within the three groups: horses that shortened from morning odds to SP, horses that stayed the same price in that time frame, and horses that drifted from morning odds to SP. I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

 

 

As one would expect, most trainers have a significant difference in strike rate when comparing drifters to horses that shorten in price. Stuart Williams for example has a three times better strike rate with his horses that shorten in price compared to his drifters (19.01 v 6.28). Indeed, his runners that have shortened in price have made a small profit of around 4p in the £.

Julie Camacho seems to be a trainer to note if her runners shorten from early odds to SP. She has had 451 runners that have contracted in price, of which 86 have won, producing a healthy £99.59 profit to BSP. This equates to impressive returns of 22p in the £.

In terms of Early Odds to SP drifters, Brian Ellison runners that fit that profile look worth avoiding: 44 wins from 838 qualifiers showing hefty losses of £341.35 (ROI -40.7%). Likewise, Ed Dunlop has a similarly poor record with drifters thanks to only 77 wins from 1195 (SR 6.4%) for a loss to BSP of £440.90 (ROI -36.9%).

A few trainers have made profits with their drifters, but many have been helped by the occasional huge priced BSP winner. One trainer who has been less reliant on big-priced winners has been Charles Hills. He has saddled 149 winners from 1240 drifters turning a profit of £277.50 (ROI +22.4%). This record actually improves if you ignore his big-priced runners (BSP 40.0 or higher) – a £433.44 profit returning over 42p in the £. I did check the data for his 2023 drifters, and he has made a decent profit this year so far, too. Very interesting!

 

*

 

So, there we have it. The data collection for these three market movement articles has taken a while, but I hope Geegeez readers are able to take plenty from it. Perhaps the main message is, more horses will drift than shorten be it comparing Early Odds to SP or Opening Show to SP. So, if you can, bet late or bet Betfair SP. Also, when viewing the overall findings there is more value in drifters. This was highlighted especially in the second article where I looked at more significant (i.e. bigger) price movements.

From a trainer perspective, each trainer will have slightly different patterns of price movement, but the trainer tables in articles one and three will assist in that regard.

Good luck.

- DR

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