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Two-Year-Old Runners on 2nd Start: Part 2

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This is the second of two articles looking at two-year-old runners (2yos) on their second career starts. The first piece looked at last time out (LTO) performance, LTO course, market factors, sires, damsires and some jockey stats. You can read that here. This one focuses exclusively on trainer data. I have collated stats from UK flat racing for six full years, from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf and all weather data. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP for short), with commission of 5% taken into account.

Overall 2yo second run stats for trainers

I am going to start with a full table with all trainers who have had at least 100 two-year old second starters in the past six seasons. I have ordered the trainers by win strike rate:

 

* C Johnston in 2023; ** Jack Channon in 2023

 

A familiar face heads the list – Charlie Appleby. His 37%-plus strike rate is remarkable but, despite that whopping win percentage, he has failed to make it into blind profit. This is, naturally, because many of his runners start at short prices. Seven other trainers have secured strike rates of 20% or higher with juvenile runners making their second career starts, which again is extremely noteworthy. Just one of these seven in profit though: Hugo Palmer.

In terms of A/E indices Messrs. Palmer, Dods, Dalgleish, Osborne and Tinkler are above the magic 1.00, although Nigel Tinkler, with a strike rate of under 5%, is not a trainer for the faint of heart to follow.

At this juncture it makes sense to compare the performance of trainers' 2yo debut runners with their 2yos having a second run. In the following table I have broken this down by strike rates and A/E indices for each trainer. I have ordered them by trainers who have seen the most improvement in strike rate from first to second start:

 

 

In the final column I have divided the second run win percentage by the debut one to give us a type of Impact Value. I call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR) and I also used this idea in the previous article when comparing sire stats. The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut. I have highlighted any CSR figure of 2.00 or more in green as these are much higher than the average. The CSR figure to bear in mind is 1.52. This is the average CSR figure when looking at the strike rate comparison for second starters compared with debutants; that is, on average a two-year-old is 1.52 times more likely to win on its second start compared with its debut (7.96% vs 12.08% in case you were curious).

Ed Dunlop has a very high CSR figure but that is because his debut runners having won less than 0.6% of the time. His second starters still only win on average once in every 15 or 16 races. Ed Walker, Michael Dods, William Haggas, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Hills, Sir Michael Stoute and Andrew Balding are the group of trainers who I would be expecting to see excellent improvement between first and second runs. Some of their runners should offer us decent value.

Brian Meehan is one specific trainer whose second starters look poor value, especially when comparing the stats to his debut runners. With debutants his A/E index stands at an impressive 1.36, for second starters this drops markedly to 0.76. Eve Johnson Houghton has a similar slide (1.38 to 0.79) which is also worth noting. Ths is essentially saying that Brian and Eve have their two-year-olds ready to fire on day one, which in itself is well worth noting.

 

Distance breakdown: trainer performance in 5f and 6f races

I want to split the trainer data by distance now and for this piece I am combining the sprint distances of 5 and 6f, and then will be looking at races of 7f or further. This is because it gives better sized data sets. So, to start, here are the win strike rates for trainers who have had at least 75 two-year-old second starters over 5f / 6f. I have split the data into two graphs – the first with strike rates of 16% or more:

 

 

William Haggas stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of win record. He also has an A/E index in excess of 1.00 (1.09), as do three others - Michael Dods (1.24), Andrew Balding (1.15) and Clive Cox (1.02). For the record these three have made decent profits to BSP, while Haggas would have just about broken even. Of the remaining trainers, all made a loss bar Tom Dascombe, who made a small profit. Dascombe will be interesting to follow this year in his second season after the move from Cheshire to Lambourn and without the support of Chasemore Farm.

Now for those with strike rates under 16%:

 

 

There are still some relatively decent strike rates here as well, on the left-hand part of the graph at least, although only Keith Dalgleish managed a BSP profit. No trainer in this group had an A/E index of 1.00 or more and, for the record, Richard Hughes and Tim Easterby had the poorest A/E indices (0.64 and 0.54 respectively) with both making significant losses.

 

Distance breakdown: trainer performance in races of 7f or further

There are 10 trainers who have secured a strike rate of 16% or more in these longer distance races:

 

 

Charlie Appleby strikes at a preposterous close to 40% and backing his runners would have seen you break even to BSP. Here are these trainers' A/E indices which give us a better indication of overall value:

 

 

Hugo Palmer, Archie Watson and the Charlton stable have figures above 1.00 and they are trainers who, over 7f or more, I think we should keep on the right side (more often than not).

At the other end of the scale, these are the trainers with lower strike rates over 7f+. As there are quite a few I’ve put their results in tabular form rather than in a graph.

 

 

Andrew Balding’s bottom line looks impressive but he had a 232.24 BSP winner in 2020 which accounts for most of his profit. Having said that, even without that outlier, Balding still made a positive return. The three trainers at the bottom – Richard Fahey, Sir Mark Prescott and Tim Easterby - are trainers I think should be swerved with 2yo runners at 7f or beyond when making their second start.

Before moving on there are a few points worth making.

Firstly, Clive Cox has a vastly contrasting distance record: over sprint distances his second starter strike rate is 21.9%, over 7f+ it is just 8.8%. A/E indices also have a chasm between them at 1.02 vs 0.60.

Secondly, Richard Fahey has a similar bent to his stats with much better sprint results: strike rates of 15.6% compared to 6.9%; A/E indices of 0.88 to 0.59.

And third, Roger Varian’s stats are somewhat remarkable from the point of view that his strike rate has been exactly 20% for both distance groups and his A/E indices are almost identical, too, at 0.67 and 0.68.

 

Market breakdown: trainer performance with top three in the betting

As we know, profit figures can be easily skewed by big priced winners. Hence it makes sense to analyse trainer data where it is a more level playing field – or at least where we can perform a fair price comparison. Here are the data for trainers when their 2yo second starters have figured in the top three of the betting. A minimum of 75 runs has been used as the cut-off point:

 

 

It seems right that Charlie Appleby hits a small profit considering his overall figures.

Any trainer with an A/E index of 0.90 or more I feel can be considered much more a positive than negative when it comes to their more fancied runners. Ten trainers have achieved that, of which six have edged into profit. These are Charlie Appleby, the Johnston yard, Archie Watson, Team Crisford, Hugo Palmer and Tom Dascombe. The other four - William Haggas, Charlie Hills, Clive Cox and Richard Fahey - made losses and only Cox had losses of worse than 7 pence in the £.

On the other side of the coin, Saeed bin Suroor’s record is surprisingly poor with qualifiers from the top three in the betting – a win rate of roughly one in six, but losses close to 30p in the £ and a very poor A/E index of 0.56.

So far in this article I have looked at more general trainer stats – but now I want to focus in on a few specific trainers starting, not surprisingly, with Charlie Appleby.

 

Individual Trainers with Second Start Two-Year-Olds

Charlie Appleby

We have seen already that Charlie Appleby has an impressive overall strike rate, but this does not mean he is a money making machine for punters. If only it was that simple! Strike rate is important but betting is essentially about getting a value price - having 50% of winners at 10/11 keeps you in the game but loses you money, whereas 15% of winners at 8/1 means long losing runs but wins you money. Such is the challenge for us punters: winners, or profit?

From my personal experience it is harder to find value with short prices and this is why one cannot just blindly back Appleby runners, or indeed almost any other short-priced 'no brainer' angle. This is perhaps neatly illustrated when we breakdown Appleby’s profit with horses from the top three in the betting. As the previous table showed, these runners did make a small 5p in the £ profit for him. However, all the profits came from horses second and third in the betting. These combined to produce returns of just under 26p in the £, whereas favourites lost just over 4p in the £.

I have dug deeper into the Appleby stats and one angle that does stand out is jockey based. I touched upon jockeys in the first of these articles when I compared second starters that were ridden by the same jockey who had ridden them on debut, with those who have seen their jockey change. As a general rule I found that horses ridden by the same jockey outperformed those which were not. For Appleby this bias is pronounced as the table shows:

 

 

William Buick has been responsible for 72 of these 103 ‘same jockey’ runners. His strike rate was 45.8% and backing these runners would have returned you £16.06 (ROI +22.3%). James Doyle has had an even better strike rate albeit from a much smaller group of runners. He had a success rate of 52.2% (12 win from 23) for returns of 19p in the £. Hence any 2yo second starter from the Appleby yard who is ridden for the second time by either Buick or Doyle is a horse that potentially offers some value.

We have seen good consistency before with Appleby runners and his second starters seem no exception. They have proved versatile by going / ground conditions as the graph below shows:

 

 

All the strike rates are above 30%; it should be noted that the highest one (tapeta) is from a small sample (7 wins from 15) so this may be artificially high.

Here are some additional Charlie Appleby stats, both positive and negative:

  1. Appleby 2yo debut winners have a relatively modest record when running for the second time. They have backed up this win just 14 times from 60 (SR 23.3%) for a loss of £25.02 (ROI -41.7%).
  1. The value in terms of debut performance has come from horses that finished 5th or worse on debut. On second starts Appleby has secured 19 winners with these runners from 58 (SR 32.8%) for a profit of £10.59 (ROI +18.3%).
  1. At the highest level (Class 1 races) Appleby's runners on second start have won just 7 from 41 (SR 17.1%) for a loss of £18.07 (ROI -44.1%).
  1. Second time runners returning to the course where they debuted have done well, scoring nearly 50% of the time. 16 wins from 33 (SR 48.5%) have created a BSP profit of £17.36 (ROI 52.6%).
  1. Appleby has done well when sending second starting 2yos to Newmarket. He has been rewarded with 24 wins from 53 (SR 45.3%) for a healthy profit of £19.48 (ROI +36.8%).

 

Richard Hannon

I have chosen Richard Hannon next as he has had the biggest number of second starters in the past six seasons.

The eagle eyed of you would have seen already that his record in sprint events is better than 7f+ races; specifically, he has a strike rate of 17.3% for sprints compared to 10.6% for longer races. Here are some other Hannon second starter stats I would like to share.

  1. Just like Appleby, having the same jockey on board that rode the horse on debut has been a plus. These horses have won 37 of their 224 starts (SR 16.5%) for a small profit of £11.29 (ROI of 5.0%); the record of horses with new / different jockeys is 53 wins from 450 (SR 11.8%) for a loss of £73.50 (ROI -16.3%).
  1. 2yos returning to the track within two weeks of their debut have a surprisingly good record. 40 have won from 244 (SR 16.4%) for a healthy profit of £90.27 (ROI +37.0%). Amazingly, Hannon has made a profit with these runners in five of the six years which shows good consistency.
  1. Horses that finished first or second on debut have a good record with 26.1% of them winning on their second starts (35 wins from 135) for a profit of £40.06 (ROI +29.9%).
  1. Hannon has scored nearly 41% of the time with second time starter favourites, making the smallest of profits, £1.93 (ROI 1.8%).

 

Richard Fahey

Another Richard and another trainer who has had a decent number of runners. His overall strike rate with second starters stands at just under 13% and I have found a handful of useful stats – positive, negative and neutral.

  1. Clear favourites for Fahey have secured 33 wins from 73 2yo second starters (SR 45.2%) for a profit of £11.68 (ROI +16.0%).
  1. 2yos that won on debut have proved profitable on their second starts thanks to a strike rate of 17.9% producing returns of 56p in the £.
  1. Second starters who race at Beverley have scored 26.5% of the time (13 wins from 49) for a break even scenario.
  1. Having the same jockey on board as on debut has once again seen a big difference in performance, just as we saw with Appleby and Hannon runners. Fahey horses retaining the same jockey for the second run have won 19.8% of races (A/E index 1.06); those horses whose jockey has changed have won just 8.4% of their races (A/E index 0.60).
  1. Second starters racing on all weather tracks have a poor record with only 7 wins from 104 (SR 6.7%). Losses have been steep at 54p lost for every £1 staked.
  1. 2yos that have had their second start in September or later in the year look worth avoiding. Just 11 wins from 153 (SR 7.2%) for a loss of £67.11 (ROI -43.9%). For the record, if the horse was not favourite or second favourite Fahey saw just 3 wins from 121 runners.

 

Other trainers

Here are some individual stats that I have unearthed related to other trainers:

  1. Andrew Balding has an excellent record with horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd on debut. On their second starts they have gone onto win 25 times from 89 (SR 28.1%) for a profit of £31.68 (ROI +35.6%). Balding has secured profits with these runners in four of the six years.
  1. Kevin Ryan has reverse stats compared to Balding. Horses that finished in the first three on debut would have lost a whopping 46p in the £ if backed blindly on second start.
  1. Sir Mark Prescott has sent 99 2yo second starters to all weather tracks, and only one has managed to win.
  1. Tim Easterby has a dreadful record with horses running again within two weeks of their debut, with just one win from 104 runners.
  1. William Haggas has a good record with 2yos that have dropped in class since their debut. He has secured a 34.2% strike rate thanks to 26 winners from 76. These runners have returned a profit of £9.84 (ROI +12.9%).
  1. Karl Burke is another trainer that does particularly well when retaining the same jockey who rode on debut – 36 wins from 150 rides (SR 24%) for a profit of £45.34 (ROI +30.2%).

 

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

Below is a summary of my main takeaways from this article; but there may be stats above that are far more important to you, so keep that in mind!

  1. Ed Walker, Michael Dods, William Haggas, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Hills, Sir Michael Stoute and Andrew Balding all enjoy much higher strike rates on second starts compared to debut runs.
  1. Brian Meehan and Eve Johnson Houghton are two trainers whose second starting 2yos offer relatively poor value, especially when comparing second runs to debuts.
  1. William Haggas, Michael Dods, Andrew Balding and Clive Cox have good records with 2yo second runs in 5-6f races. In contrast, Tim Easterby looks a trainer to avoid.
  1. Hugo Palmer, Archie Watson and the Charlton stable do well in races of 7f or more with their second starters.
  1. Charlie Appleby, the Johnston stable, Archie Watson, the Crisford stable, Hugo Palmer and Tom Dascombe have good records with second starters when in the top three in the betting. Saeed bin Suroor has a particularly poor record with these fancied runners.
  1. Charlie Appleby runners have a very good record when the same jockey who rode on debut rides on the second start. In particular, look out for William Buick and James Doyle. Appleby also does well with horses that finished out of the first four on debut, as well as horses that ran at Newmarket.
  1. Richard Hannon does well with horses that return to the track within two weeks of their debut. He also does well with debutants that won or finished second on debut.
  1. Richard Fahey second starters that start clear favourite have a strong record. On the negative side, avoid second starters if racing on the all weather, or if racing after August.

 

There is a fair bit to get your teeth into in this article and hopefully it has started to point you in the right direction, as well as steering away from some treacherous paths. For those readers who do not generally bet in 2yo races, I hope this, and the previous three articles, may have changed your mind.

- DR

Monday Musings: Route To Gold

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The problem with the international and even domestic racing programme is that when you get older, and appreciably so in my case, it spins ever faster, writes Tony Stafford.

It seems it was only a few months ago that I was looking back at a just concluded UK jumps season and saying that by the time of my next offering, 40 per cent of the UK Classic races will have come and gone. This time round we’ll have had a Coronation too – the second in my lifetime!

Thank goodness we had the Craven meeting to wean us back to flat racing of young, well-bred, and beautifully prepared horses, just in time for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday when Messrs O’Brien Sr., Balding, Appleby, C., and the Gosdens, father and son, will move back into focus.

Saturday at Sandown was a joyous event in many ways with top-class performances through the card, staged on the first spring-like afternoon of the year it seemed. Even if Paul Nicholls was unable to conjure the earnings needed to break the UK trainers’ record for a season, such as Kitty’s Light, giving another boost for Christian Williams as his family tries to cope with his daughter’s illness, and Jonbon, taking another sure upward step as a two-mile chaser with Nicky Henderson, enthused the massive crowd.

It was less of a cliff-hanger though in the normal way of a Nicholls/Martin Pipe or Nicholls/ Henderson last-day tussle and the jockeys’ championship, a third for Brian Hughes, was a one-horse race probably from October.

The identity of the top trainers on its prizemoney, rather than winners, criterion, was pretty much set in stone. Nicholls, Henderson (sneaking into second with a memorable last day double), Dan Skelton and, solely due to his Cheltenham Festival domination, Willie Mullins, predictably led the way.

That Mullins could add £1.72 million in the UK to the more than €7m in Ireland is remarkable. What may be less appreciated is that he sent 88 individual horses over here for the 106 combined runs it needed to earn the big bucks, considering only eight were wins.

As my former associate Derek Hatter always used to say, it’s only different numbers and that applies to everything in life. Racing is certainly a numbers game. The top three UK trainers had respectively 166, 142 and 212 individual horses representing them; fifth-placed Fergal O’Brien saddled 208 individuals on his way to 141 wins and £1.61 million in earnings.

Mullins’ domination of Irish racing – for a while challenged by Gordon Elliott who, though still a factor, in championship terms has been put firmly back in his box – extended to 17 winners over the five days of the recently-concluded Punchestown Festival. His earnings last week alone – €1,783,905 according to my admittedly questionable addition – almost exactly matched his whole UK season’s tally, depending on whose currency rates you use.

The domination of the top four trainers depends entirely on their purchasing power and having a stable full of owners who will pay the ever-increasing prices needed to acquire raw material from the Irish pointing field or the plethora of spring juvenile races in Auteuil and other French tracks.

These are more often of fillies who, like Lossiemouth, the outstanding juvenile of the season and a dual Grade 1 winner (in the Triumph at Cheltenham and again at Punchestown on Saturday) won or ran well on debut thus catching the attention of Harold Kirk, Mullins’ principal French talent scout.

Their shopping trips do not always produce instant gold. One private purchase, a gelding bought after two second places from Guillaume Macaire, the most successful French jumps trainer of the past two decades, illustrates that point. He was acquired on behalf of Sullivan Racing Ltd, whose red colours, previously associated on the flat with Richard Hannon, had become a significant part of the Mullins team.

The horse was called Lucky One, a gelded son of Authorized, the 2007 Derby winner and sire of Tiger Roll. He was no doubt selected as a prospect to rank alongside such as Sullivan’s smart winners Duc De Genievres and Eglantine Du Seuil, among several others.

Incidentally the narrow winner and favourite of that race, Aveiro, trained by Francois Nicolle, was bought on behalf of the Coolmore owners and so far, four years on, hasn’t made it to the track since.

Mullins did get Lucky One to the races, but only once and then a full 14 months after that French race. He finished fourth of 16 in a novice hurdle at Punchestown in February 2020.

The following winter he had moved to Paul Nicholls where he had two wide margin wins in eight starts and by the end of that season was rated 143, so smart. Moved again to Dan Skelton, he struggled with that high mark, and after five runs, was passed on at the Doncaster May sale for £18,000.

The trainer willing to take a chance on a horse that had been originally with a French legend and since had been under the care of three of the four outstanding handers in these isles as the stats show (only Nicky Henderson can plead innocence) was Sophie Leech.

Sophie and husband Christian have a 30-box yard at Westbury-on-Severn, near Gloucester, once occupied by my mate the late David Wintle and owned by another pal Keith Bell. Christian was formerly racecourse manager at Warwick and he and Sophie started training in 2007.

On Saturday at Auteuil, the same Lucky One, a 12/1 shot, who had been nurtured and developed in those prestigious environments for the larger part of his life, won the most valuable jumps race run in France so far this year.

Mme Sophie Leech, as France Galop describes her, picked up the Grand Course de Haies de Printemps, and £70k as near as makes no difference, at Auteuil on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday morning – “We go via Calais and it’s only ten hours”, said Christian, “and he’s already in the field.”

The Leech duo have successfully exploited the system of French jumping which has far fewer handicaps than is the case in the UK. “Older horses, like Lucky One, who might now be struggling in handicaps, have plenty of conditions races available to them. It’s almost as though they are back in novice company, and they are obviously much easier to win. Also, these old boys seem to enjoy the travelling,” he said.

It truly is a route to gold and Christian, still revelling in the enormity of the win, says Sophie has already decided on challenging for the French Champion Hurdle, over just more than three miles, on May 20.

Christian says: “He’s unexposed over further, but the way he kept battling over 2m5f suggests he’ll stay. The company will be hotter, but the top French hurdlers keep beating each other. No doubt Willie Mullins will send over one or two as usual. I wonder how he will feel if Lucky One was to beat him!”

Now though this upwardly mobile couple will be hoping that the 20 horses at present in their yard might be increased because of this amazing success. Their three winning horses, the other two are Demoiselle Kap and John Locke, have earned almost £180k just this year.

“In the UK, as we find with our runners here, the expected return is around 10-15% in our experience. In France, we’ve found you must be hopeless if you can’t at least break even with a jumper.”

Clearly the Leeches – there, I had to say it at least once! – are thinking about applying for a three-month licence for next winter. “We would be based at Cagnes-sur-Mer and that would make that course and Pau, whose season follows, much easier to reach, We have done well down there, race programmes clearly suit our horses. Paris is okay, but getting to the Riviera or to Pau, which is near Spain,is much more difficult,” he said.

Lucky One is the right name for a horse that is helping put this talented double act on the map, not that they have had much attention paid to them by the racing media. “It’s like flogging a dead horse,” says Christian. At least where the racehorses are concerned their training talent clearly has the desired effect, making it pay for their owners and themselves. And rather than flogging dead horses, they are extending their effective racing careers.

- TS

Roving Reports: The National’s Still Grand

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This year's Aintree adventure, as always, starts not on Thursday morning but on Wednesday evening, with my lift to Aintree picking me up, complete with luggage (four work shirts, two pairs of trousers, assorted toiletries, an Aldi 'bag for life' full of wet weather gear, another bag containing all the electricals and laptops I'll need for the trip, including an extension cord and adaptor - absolutely essential when staying away) at 8pm, writes David Massey. There's no need to go any earlier, with the purpose of the trip merely to put us in the right area for Aintree on Thursday, as the pick for bookmaking spots takes place ridiculously early: 10.15am Thursday and Friday, 10am Saturday. Bookmakers tackling the M6 on the relevant mornings have been known to miss their spots. You're much better off staying local and we're just half an hour away, in Warrington. 

We're also taking our friend Steve, who is working for a different bookmaker this week, along with us and dropping him off at his Premier Inn, which is in Warrington but a different one to ours. Sadly, the info Steve has about his residence for the week is limited and we end up dropping him off at the wrong one. "I'm in Room 16", he tells the receptionist but it seems someone called Danielle is already in Room 16, so unless Steve has, er, booked a friend for the evening we are in the wrong place. A quick phone call reveals he's in the one a mile down the road (who knew there were so many Premier Inns in Warrington?) so we pack all his stuff back up, and head off again. 

Once he's in the right place we head to ours, and get our first good result of the week. "I'm afraid the rooms you have booked are being renovated", we are told on arrival, "so we've upgraded you to the Premier Plus rooms." What a touch. Walk-in rainfall shower, here I come...

It's only 9.50pm so I head for a pint next door, only to find the doors of the place locked. It's an early night then. I'll get the double up next morning when I head for breakfast at 7.45am, only to still find the doors firmly bolted. So it's breakfast in the Premier Inn instead, and I have to say it was very good indeed. 

We head for Aintree good and early and arrive at the car park around 9am. I say car park - regular readers might recall the bookmakers' "car park" is little more than an overgrown patch of land opposite the track. It's normally £60 for the three days, but the cost of living has also affected car park owners, it seems, and it's an eye-watering £90 this time around. 

And the state of it. It's bad enough in dry weather, with the vines on the ground waiting to literally trip you up at any moment, but two days of wet weather have turned it to something akin to where you might have staged Junior Kick Start thirty years ago. 

So, hauling the gear on suddenly becomes an Olympic sport, and I'm sweating and knackered before we've even got going. 

In the mornings I can avoid the tedium after the pick by using the press facilities, which I do every day, but for the rest it really is a case of standing around waiting to get going. And when we do, as expected, business comes in dribs and drabs. 

Initially Stage Star is popular but the moment 2-1 Banbridge appears on the board, in come the Euros for him. And they're right, with Stage Star finding it coming too quick after Cheltenham and the fresher Banbridge coming out on top. Banbridge had been my Cheltenham banker, so it was a blow to see him taken out there; this is some compensation. 

Zenta is no good in the next and Shiskin lands the £700-£400 I'd taken, although it looked most unlikely for 90% of the race. We bet with and without the favourite for the Aintree Hurdle and I take the inevitable each-way bet on Constitution Hill. The bloke in question has a tenner each-way; enjoy your £1.25 profit, sir. 

It's strange weather, this. The sun is out but it isn't warm, with the wind keeping the temperature down. However, I'm stood right in the sun and can feel its heat, so take precautions and slap a bit of sunscreen on my bonce. Behind the joint, however, Colin is in the shade and not only has his anorak on, but is reaching for his gloves. 

Famous Clermont is popular in the Foxhunters and the Irish are back with the Euros for Dancing On My Own in the Red Rum. Dysart Enos is barely a good result in the last and that's Day One done. Punters in front, for sure. 

Tea/dinner (dependant on where you're from) is Nando's, with the forever-locked pub now forsaken. I do like the occasional Nando's, and we order the family platter for the five of us. There's plenty left over at the end and I'm only too happy to help clear up. As Colin often points out, "if ever there's an eating competition between the bookmakers, we're putting you in to bat." Harsh. But probably true. 

Thursday is the quietest day of the three, Friday and Saturday are busier and so we are joined by two more workers, Paul and Martin (aka BMW). Martin joined us last night and immediately had a result. On checking in he was told the room he had booked had been trashed by the couple in there the night before (trashing a Premier Inn, how sad do you have to be?) and so had to have a different room, one with a wet room. As compensation, free breakfast. The best sort of breakfast there is. 

The sun is well and truly out today, and shaven-headed Martin goes straight for my sunscreen. I like working with Martin, he always has a tale to tell from his days working with Racing Raymond (most of them utterly unprintable for this column) and, given he has an eye for the ladies, today is most definitely his day. 

The sun does not last long. Showers are predicted from 2pm and whilst the timing is about right, the rain is set in. It's never a good thing for business, and especially on a big day like today. The ladies have already abandoned their heels for flip-flops, but my word their feet, in the mud and rain, become filthy very quickly. On the plus side, whilst their dress length may be short, their betting knowledge is longer, and they know a fiver each-way is a tenner, not a fiver, and don't back favourites each-way. Having said that, you all know I took a £2.50ew Gerri Colombe in the first. 

The handicap hurdle that follows is one of those where they all latch on to the same runners, namely Pull Again Green and Camprond. When neither can be found with radar at the finish, it's going to be a winning race. 

They all want Luccia in the next, but I don't fancy her and place lay her. She doesn't win but in rolling in third costs me a few quid. The Irish pile into Fakir d'Oudaries in the next and I take a €400 bet at 2s, but he can never quite get to Pic D'Orhy and that's another good race for us. Not as good as the Topham, though - not a single bet is struck on my joint on Bill Baxter. A skinner in the big race, and only five people have backed anything in the frame. Incredible. 

We've had two very attractive ladies betting all afternoon with us, not only attractive but good fun to chat to. (Note; Martin is doing most of the chatting.) It's their first time at the races and have had the crash course from us, so know what they're doing by now. One has her last tenner on Apple Away in the next, and I'm delighted for her when it wins. As is she. Punctuation in the last isn't a skinner, perhaps surprisingly, as two people have crystal balls better than mine and have had a tenner each-way on him. One admits to backing the wrong horse, but decided to stick with it anyway, which turns out to be the best decision they'll have made all day. 

With the results very much turning in the bookmakers' favour, it looks like a Friday night Nando's is once again on the cards. We troop over but it's absolutely packed, and as we don't fancy a 90-minute wait, it has to be Pizza Hut instead. The lady serving us is on her last day of service with the company and it would be very easy for her to basically go through the motions with us before she packs up for the night, but far from it. She talks us through all the deals, and couldn't be more attentive if she tried. She gets a good tip. 

Saturday. Grand National Day. We're at the track before nine and having heaved the gear through the ploughed field that is the car park, head on in. Straight away it is noticeable how much security has tightened. Everyone's on edge. Even the mush (the umbrella, for those unaware) gets searched. There's clearly a feeling something is going to kick off, but as yet, where and when remains a mystery. 

In the press room there's donuts and, later, champagne kicking about. I wouldn't normally, not that early anyway, but it seems rude not to. Pork pie, you say? Don't mind if I do. I take another piece for later. 

Let's get betting then. The place feels rammed and despite the first hardly being a betting heat, with Jonbon a 2-11 chance, the forecast option is very popular, with Jonbon to beat Calico the choice of the punters. We're staring at a big payout before Calico departs at the last; maybe that's an omen for the day. 

Or maybe not. Loads of £20 and £50 bets come sailing in for West Balboa and she duly obliges in the next. A monkey comes in for Hermes Allen to recover the Cheltenham losses but Irish Point proves too good for them. He's going to be a force next year, for sure. Not many back Sire Du Berlais either, although one bloke is on a roll, having started with £30 on West Balboa, playing £60 of that up on Irish Point and has now had £100 on Sire Du Berlais. I advise him he can buy lottery tickets at all good newsagents. His next move is £130 on Midnight River at 7-1; when that wins, I tell him to buy two. 

And now, Grand National time. A grand is thrust my way, the punter wanting £500 e/w on Fury Road at 33s. The simply matter is if that wins, we haven't enough float to pay him, so he's laid half that. He's happy and has the rest next door. £100 bets are flying around my ears, mainly for Any Second Now, Delta Work (again, a £250 e/w laid) and Le Milos. 

Then the announcement rings out. "There will be a delay to the start of the race." 

And that's really about it, we hear no more from the PA (as deafening as ever, they haven't listened to a word we said about it last year) until they are going down. However, the power of social media tells us everything that's going on over on the far side, and protestors are indeed now on the course. I'm not here to get into the politics of it all, I shall leave that to others far cleverer than I, but I can tell you it was a massive pain on the day. The only positive I could find was that the ridiculous one-hour gap to the last (utterly unnecessary, 40 minutes would be more than enough) was bridged to around half an hour. 

Remarkably, Corach Rambler is a decent result. Not many have backed it, and the payout queue is not a long one. All we need to do now is get the last out of the way, with business unsurprisingly dropping right off (many head straight for the exits after the National) and head home. 

Farewell car park, I hope you've dried up by next year. Better still, had some concrete over the top of you. I think that's probably asking too much. Knackered, but paid up and with a little bonus, it's time to go back to Nottingham. See you all next time.

- DM

Monday Musings: Déjà vu

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There is no question that one male and one female jockey transcend all others in the perception of people who may not be regular followers of our wonderful, but undeniably niche, sport. ITV are valiantly and very professionally increasing coverage on the main free channels it controls and nowadays have great flexibility on which platform they use. Tough if you can only receive ITV1, but even you would have seen both those famous people in action on Saturday.

More accurately, the gentleman, Frankie Dettori, was in frequent, albeit unrewarding sight at Newbury. Rachael Blackmore, his female counterpart, Darling of Cheltenham, and Aintree, was on a first visit to Ayr along with her boss Henry de Bromhead.

She was there to ride another of Scotsman Kenny Alexander’s horses, in the same colours as the great Honeysuckle. At a Cheltenham meeting full of epic events, that superstar’s final act on a racecourse in winning the mares’ race at the Festival last month, following two Champion Hurdles, was the highlight of the week for many.

With the TV cameras and presenters watching every move on Saturday, Rachael successfully negotiated one fence on her mount Telmesomethinggirl, before being dumped unceremoniously when unseated at the next.

Being deposited on the turf – and Ayr’s was less than ideally receptive as the host of absentees from its £120k to the winner Scottish Grand National, testified – must have been a jolt.

Hopefully, she will be fit for one of her’s and de Bromhead’s most important fixtures, the five days of Punchestown, starting tomorrow. As with Leopardstown at Christmas and the Dublin Racing Festival in February, there is massive prizemoney available, and she won’t want to be side-lined for any of it.

Meanwhile Dettori had already bitten the turf 20 minutes earlier. The 52-year-old is, as everyone knows, in his final year as a jockey and he will be hoping to cherry-pick the best of opportunities all around the world right up until his final day.

He has a regular spot in California whenever he chooses to take it for Bob Baffert. This will always almost guarantee a top prospect or two for his final Breeders’ Cup in the autumn. Meanwhile he would dearly love another UK Classic winner or two to go with the 20 he already possesses as he stretches deeper into his sixth decade.

Hopes were high that Chaldean, the Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned colt he rode to victory in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes, would sort out the first of those five possible additions. Despite being slightly uneasy in the betting as the horses milled around behind Newbury’s stalls before the off, nobody could have anticipated the shocking outcome soon to occur.

The gates opened and Chaldean obviously made a troubled exit, as Dettori was dumped even before his mount could take a step, his horse suffering both from a violent left-handed swerve by the horse in the neighbouring stall to this right and the fact there was no horse to his left to help correct the unwelcome deviation due to two blocks of stalls connecting at that point. Chaldean decided, jockey or no jockey, to show these upstart horses what’s what and joined in the race all by himself. Meanwhile the Italian was slowly picking himself up in a state of disbelief. Unlike in almost every other sport, when something like that happens, that’s it – no comeback.

One man’s dismay can usually mean joy for somebody else and that was the case for Brian Meehan, once a regular challenger for Group and Grade 1 prizes around the world, but now operating on a smaller scale. The numbers might be down, but the talent and awareness of the ability of the horses he does control is firmly intact.

When discussing the race with me on Saturday morning, he acknowledged that Chaldean might be the superstar of the 2023 Classics, so his horse Isaac Shelby would not be taking any notice, he’d just be doing his own thing. Isaac Shelby broke nicely from his low draw at the left-hand side well away from the favourite. Sean Levey soon had him ahead and must have thought he was seeing things as the riderless Chaldean came into his vision off to the right.

In fairness, Chaldean would have been the only other horse he did see, as the Meehan colt settled into his stride and, when anything looked like getting on terms, he kept pulling out extra. At the line, he had three lengths and five and a half lengths in hand of Roger Varian’s colt Charyn and the Gosdens’ Theoryofeverything. If anything from the race is going to win the 2,000 Guineas, it is surely only Chaldean.

This is in large part because Meehan and close collaborator Sam Sangster, who bought the Night Of Thunder colt for £92,000 as a yearling, have not swayed from the original plan to go for the French 2,000 Guineas over a mile at Longchamp, rather than Newmarket on Saturday week with Isaac Shelby.

Time enthusiasts will have noted the Greenham was run in two seconds’ faster time than the immediately preceding Fred Darling (or whatever it’s called nowadays), for Classically-intending fillies. Its significance may be diminished, as that was the exact difference in the two races’ times last year.

Isaac Shelby won his first two races as a juvenile, a maiden at Newbury (good to soft) and then the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket on good to firm ground. The going was nearer the opposite end of the spectrum on Saturday, riding at around one second per furlong slow. Saturday’s winner took seven seconds longer than Perfect Power did for the Richard Fahey stable in 2022, so probably not too dissimilar a performance.

Isaac Shelby’s only career defeat came after a slow start and a wide course in the Dewhurst at a time when getting into the middle of the track was very unrewarding. Brian just shrugs that off. It wasn’t his day, is the gist of it. Saturday certainly was!

Perfect Power failed to stay the mile in the 2,000 Guineas but went to Royal Ascot, where he comfortably won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs. Perfect Power retired at the end of the season and stands this year at a fee of £15,000 at Sheikh Mohammed’s Dalham Hall Stud.

Despite a quiet (for them) Dubai World Cup meeting, there is little sign that Godolphin are any less acquisitive when seeking out talented horses at sales, in addition to their extensive and increasingly successful breeding operation. I finally received my Horses In Training Book (thank you Rupert!) this week and note that Charlie Appleby has 254 horses in his care this year.

He’ll have at least one more after last week’s Craven Breeze-Up sale at Newmarket, which I attended only on the first evening. Hence, I missed the sale of the Blue Point colt bought by Anthony Stroud and David Loder for a joint top-priced 625,000gns.

Blue Point, like Perfect Power, also stands at Dalham Hall, and he has gone off like a rocket with his initial lot of juveniles. Blue Storm won for the James Tate stable at Newmarket on Tuesday, making it three already in the UK. I understand he’s had a winner in France, too. [He has, Keran, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget for the Aga Khan, is Blue Point’s sole French runner so far, winning at Tarbes last Thursday – Ed.]

The other joint top was a son of Havana Grey, who on Wednesday was responsible for 28/1 winner Mammas Girl, also ridden by Sean Levey, this time for his long-standing boss Richard Hannon, in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes.

The Hannon stable has always been able to pull one out of the hat in Guineas races, both before Richard junior took over from his father and since. Don’t be shocked if this fast-improving filly – now as short as 6/1 – makes an impact in the Classic.

There have been some artistically planned big-race coups over jumps recently, but nobody seems as sure-footed as Christian Williams, who followed last year’s 1-2 in the Scottish Grand National with another well-executed win in the four-miler on Saturday.

In 2022, his mare Win My Wings led home a stable 1-2, the 13/2 joint-favourite sharing that price with Williams’ other runner, Kitty’s Light, a staying-on second. Win My Wings was retired earlier this season, but Kitty’s Light, having dropped in the handicap, easily won the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time.

Even after being reassessed for that, Kitty’s Light was able to run off 3lb lower than a year ago, and now as the 4/1 favourite he had the typical Christian Williams acceleration at the end of marathon distances. As with Win My Wings last year, his horse seemed to be going nowhere and then shot past the rest of the field to win easily. It was very much a case of Déjà vu.

Watching Robert Sangster’s colours come home in front on Isaac Shelby, it was so good to have a reminder of the long-term owner of Manton. His son Sam, through his Manton House Thoroughbreds syndicates, is keeping the tradition going with Meehan, while Sam’s nephew Ollie, son of elder brother Ben and wife Lucy, is embarking with great promise on a training career there. Déjà vu indeed.

- TS

Two-Year-Old Runners on 2nd Start: Part 1

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Having delved into two-year-old (2yo) debut data in my two previous articles (part 1 here and part 2 here), it is time to move on to 2yos on their second starts, writes Dave Renham. I will split the research up once more into two distinct pieces: this first one will look at a variety factors such as LTO (last time out) performance, LTO course, market factors, etc. The second will be drilling into numerous trainer based angles.

Once more I have researched UK flat racing results for six full years, from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf races as well as all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP) with commission of 5% taken into account.

Firstly let me compare the win strike rates and the win and placed (each way) strike rates for 2yo debutants versus 2yo second starters:

 

 

As you can see, having that racecourse experience makes a significant difference, both in term of winning chances and placed ones too.

These strike rates are similar year in, year out for second time starting 2yos – the graph below shows this clearly with two virtually straight lines:

 

 

Of course the betting market takes these percentages into account when setting the prices so, although second time out juveniles win more than debutants do, it does not mean they are necessarily more profitable. Let us then examine the performance of 2yo second starters by price.

 

Market Factors

The prices shown in the table below are Industry SPs just because they fit to a more uniform price pattern – profits / losses / returns, however, are presented to BSP as previously started:

 

 

From these figures we can see that the shorter priced runners have been quite poor value, specifically those priced 9/4 or shorter. The biggest profits have come from the 25/1 or bigger runners but take out one winner at a BSP of 560.0 and suddenly we see a 100 point deficit. Add into the mix that there were three more winners priced between 300.0 and 500.0 (396.7, 312.79 & 485.27), as well as a miserly 1% strike rate, and we can see that backing such runners is not a sensible option, even if you are patient enough to wait on average for that one win in 91.

 

LTO position (finishing position on debut)

This was not an option to check with debutants (for obvious reasons), but for second starters it is an area we can dive into.

 

 

The first thing to note is that horses that came second on debut actually have a better strike rate than those who won on debut. This is not usually the case – looking at ALL races over the past six seasons (any age group / race type), the strike rate for all LTO winners is slightly higher than for all LTO runners up. Here there is a 7% differential, which may be down to the weight penalty most winners are obliged to carry next time. Having said that, the returns are virtually identical – within one hundredth of a pence per every £1 staked.

The value seems to have been with those horses that finished 5th or worse. Again, though, we need to be aware that those four huge priced winners mentioned earlier all came from runners who finished 5th or worse.

 

LTO course (course they made their debut)

Focusing on the course where a 2yo made its debut. what difference does this make? I have included all LTO courses that have had at least 80 qualifiers. That means just two courses miss out: Epsom and Wetherby. Courses are initially listed alphabetically and I have split Newmarket into results for both the Rowley course and the July one:

 

 

As we can see there is quite a mixed bag in terms of strike rates, returns and A/E indices. In general, I think that the strike rates and A/E indices are more significant than profit/loss, as some course data will have been skewed by very big priced winners. Also I would urge punters to be equally aware of the poorer performing LTO courses. Juveniles which had debut runs at Bath, Beverley, Brighton and Chester look horses to avoid on second starts in general terms; not only do they have poor strike rates, their A/E indices are under 0.70.

There is a significant difference however, when we compare LTO turf courses with LTO AW courses:

 

 

That better than 3% differential in strike rates with 2yo debutants coming from turf courses last time out equates to a 32% relative improvement over those returning after a debut on the all-weather. Likewise, the profit and loss figures to BSP (£1 level stakes) are similarly different:

 

 

All in all, one would prefer to be backing a 2yo on second career run that raced on the turf on its debut, rather than the sand.

If we break the data down further, by looking at horses that started in the top three of the betting on their second start, the LTO course surface made a difference there as well. These more fancied runners scored 26.2% of the time if their debut run was on turf, compared to 23.2% if their debut run was on the all weather.

A debut run at Newmarket has often been considered a positive and we can see the table shows debuts at both the Rowley and July courses have produced high second time out strike rates and good returns to boot. In addition the win percentage / strike rate has been consistently good year on year as the graph shows:

 

 

Three of the six years would have produced a blind profit to BSP, and at this juncture I would like to share more specific data looking at the horses that finished 2nd or 3rd at Newmarket on debut. These runners have secured a one in three win ratio (SR 33.5%) and a small level stakes profit of £18.09 (ROI +7.7%) on their next starts. However, the most remarkable thing is that despite this modest profit, five of the six years have been winning ones:

 

 

It is clear that any horse which finished 2nd or 3rd on debut at Newmarket is worth looking at in some detail on their next outing. In fact all horses that debuted at Newmarket should be looked at as possible betting opportunities especially if other factors offer positive vibes.

 

Sires

Onto sires next, and here is a table of all sires with at least 100 offspring to have had two (or more) runs as two-year-olds. I have ordered them by strike rate:

 

 

There is quite a difference when comparing the likes of Dubawi at the top, with his better than one win in four ratio, and Heeraat at the bottom, whose record is roughly one win in every 50!

Now, in the previous article I looked at sire stats for 2yo debutants so it makes sense to compare the individual sires and their debut and second run stats; here, I will be comparing the 2yo strike rate and the A/E indices.

In the final column I have divided the second run win percentage / SR% by the debut one to give us a type of Impact Value. It is not a ‘true’ IV and I call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR). I have used this type of calculation before in some other Geegeez articles. The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut.

Horses highlighted in green have seen their strike rates at least double; those in red have seen their strike rates fall. A CSR figure to bear in mind is 1.52. This is the average CSR figure when looking at the strike rate comparison for ALL sires. The table is ordered by CSR.

 

In terms of A/E indices, the same trick of dividing one number by the other is an option to compare the two values. However, I think it is simply easier to work out the difference between the two. Here is a list of any sire whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for second starters compared to debutants:

 

 

Twilight Son and Poets Voice have both proved to be far better value with their 2yo runners on second start compared to debut. All six in the table see significant differences. This is something we need to take into account if looking at runners sired by these six.

Reversing the idea now, here are the sires whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for their debutants compared to their second starters:

 

 

All five of these sires have been far better value with their 2yo debutants, and they essentially buck the general sire trend. Any 2yo on second start sired by one of these might warrant a red flag against it.

As a stats man, my mantra is the more information the better. It is true that sometimes ‘more’ can confuse the issue, but in the case of sires, comparing, analysing and having a better understanding of first and second career run data will improve our chances of finding value if backing 2yos on a regular basis.

 

Damsires

As per the first 2yo debutant article, I want to share some damsire data, too. Here are the top 15 performing damsires with 2yo second starters from a strike rate perspective (100 runs / horses minimum).

 

 

Of these 15, five secured a BSP profit (Dalakhani, Dansili, Dark Angel, Oasis Dream and Shamardal); four had A/E indices of 1.00 or higher (Dalakhani, Dubawi, Dutch Art and Bahamian Bounty).

Of all the damsires mentioned I think three are worth keeping an eye out for this year and they are the top three in terms of strike rate – Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal; their figures are solid across the board. For the record, backing all 2yo second starters that were priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter from any of these three would have seen 88 wins from 245 runners (SR 35.9%) for a BSP profit of £45.65 (ROI +18.6%).

 

Jockeys

An area that I thought would be interesting to look at was whether it was better for the 2yo second starter to be ridden again by the same jockey who rode them on debut. My hypothesis was that if the same jockey rode the horse again it should be a slight plus, due to the fact that the jockey would have prior knowledge of that debut run and performance. Also I am assuming that a fair proportion of these 2yos have been ridden at home on the gallops by the same pilot. Let’s check out the findings then:

 

 

It is always heartening to see a theory produce the type of stats expected. As we can see, horses that are ridden by the same jockey for a second time in their career outperform those who have a different pilot. This is true for strike rate, returns and A/E indices.

What is also comforting to see is that the yearly strike rates for these same jockey bookings have been very consistent:

 

 

There are less than 1.3 percentage points difference between the ‘best’ year in terms of win percentage / strike rate and the ‘worst’. In my second article, I plan to break this data down further by looking at individual trainer results – I am hoping a few trainers will offer up some strong stats.

 

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

To close, here are the bullet points from the above.

  1. 2yos win just over 12% of the time on second starts compared to just under 8% on debut
  1. Second time starters priced 9/4 or shorter have proved relatively poor value
  1. Horses that finished second on debut have an excellent strike rate of nearly 28% in their follow up run, but they still lost 11p for every £1 staked
  1. A debut run at either Bath, Beverley, Brighton or Chester can be considered a negative
  1. A debut run at Newmarket should often be considered a positive; 2yos racing at Newmarket who finished second or third on debut have a very solid set of figures on second runs
  1. Sires Twilight Son, Poets Voice, Bated Breath, Acclamation, Fast Company and Zebedee see their progeny perform significantly better on second starts compared to debut
  1. Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal are three damsires that are worth keeping on the right side (as a general rule). This is especially true if priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter
  1. Second time starters ridden by the same jockey that rode them in their first run have a much better record than if the jockey has changed

 

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I hope this article has highlighted some useful stats for Geegeez readers. It will be trainer data that comes under the microscope in that follow up. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Tom Told Us!

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Seven weeks seems a fair amount of time, writes Tony Stafford. After all, it’s almost one seventh of a year and one-five hundred and forty-ninth of a lifetime if you judged lifetimes by my earthly experience. Actually, to me it seems like a couple of weeks.

When I sat down to pen my article for the week before the Cheltenham Festival on the night of March 5/6, fresh in my mind was the rather chaotic Cheltenham preview night, enacted behind a small, sort-of select gathering in the Horse and Wig public house along and up from Chancery Lane Station in Central London the previous Wednesday evening.

Two years earlier I had been one of the leading lights (chief guest securer) in a similar, albeit slightly grander and better organised, affair in the same venue. This time, as a last-minute thing, I got a late invitation along with a plea to secure someone significant to star on the panel hosted by Charlie Methven and dominated by Scott (Mr Cheltenham) Ellis.

I thought I had a great idea – and so it proved. “Leave it to me,” I said and worked away at asking Tom Scudamore, in the knowledge he’d just retired from riding and knew his stuff as well as anyone, whether he would come.

Scott and the event organiser, Les Straszewski, were all for him and, with the assurance that with the help of his long-time driver, Tom would aim to be there as soon after 6 p.m. as road conditions allowed.

The rest of the panel was all in place, mikes nicely balanced, Charlie ready to hold forth and Scott armed with ante-post vouchers from the front door to the tube station as I reported seven weeks ago. They probably stretched in truth back halfway to Brentwood in Essex!

Anxious at the lack of arrival and then, more pointedly, paucity of communication, we set the latter in play with a call or two. In the way of such things, like waiting for a kettle to boil, anticipating Tom’s arrival was an unrewarding activity – that is until he finally appeared.

Suggestions that they start without him were considered and only just resisted. Finally, though, after a few frustrating calls which revealed passing various points in West London, gradually edging to Knightsbridge and Piccadilly, the final bulletin came in on my phone’s text. Timed at 19.18 it read: Hi Tony, moving slowly, getting to you as quickly as we can.

Quickly as we can was another half an hour, but thank goodness (says Scott), we waited.

Settling into some rather nice wine, Tom adjusted to the pace of enlightened opinion and was quickly adding his professionalism to gems offered by our two main experts and Joe Hill, son of Alan and Lawney and their co-partner in the family pointing and Rules operation. Tom had ridden regularly for the Hill family, and his retirement had come just a day before he would otherwise have ridden a winner for them.

The one big message he had to offer though, as son of Peter Scudamore, partner to Grand National-winning trainer Lucinda Russell, was that they fully expected to have a Cheltenham winner in the shape of Ultima Handicap Chase candidate, Corach Rambler. The horse had won the race the year before.

Tom revealed that not only were they expecting a repeat in that always-competitive Festival three-miler but were equally hopeful that the nine-year-old would go on to success in the Grand National five weeks later.

Having been in the Charlie Methven role two years earlier – his big contribution was to suggest 16/1 winner You Wear It Well for Jamie Snowden in the Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Novices Hurdle – I was just an observer this time. When challenged by the panel for a bet in the week, I put up Langer Dan and repeated it in the article of March 5/6. I’d forgotten all about it until watching horrified as Harry Skelton drove him home in front of 25 others nine days later!

Scott, however, doesn’t forget - anything! Every snippet of Cheltenham Festival relevance uttered, printed, whispered, rumoured, or overheard is filed away. You can see from the accompanying betting slip, what Mr Ellis did with Tom’s timely bit of info, 4,500 quids-worth, is what he did! Goes to paying towards his trip to the Masters Golf the week before, or at least it should just about reimburse him for the suitcase full of Masters regalia he brought home.

After the fact, Corach Rambler was the obvious winner! [Aren't they always? - Ed.] I had strongly expected Noble Yeats to dominate the race in the way the Lucinda Russell-trained Derek Fox-ridden winner emphatically did. Last year’s winner took an entire circuit and a half to warm up after some surprisingly hesitant jumping quickly had him among the tailenders. They say in racing you can give away weight and distance but never both.

And so it proved, and the much bigger weight compared with last year obviously told. Yet for him to finish a closing fourth, just over eight lengths behind the winner (albeit a winner that could easily have stretched further away if necessary), was admirable, with 17 finishers in the race.

The Irish must have found it hard to believe they couldn’t continue their recent winning sequence, a run of four since One For Arthur in 2017 (one year missed by Covid) also won for Ms Russell.

Although having 26 (two-thirds) of the 39 runners in the final field, and filling second to seventh, six more UK-trained horses finished after them, one better than last year when 18 started for the home team. Best placed then was one-time Nicky Henderson Gold Cup candidate Santini in fourth for Polly Gundry.

For much of Saturday’s race Henderson, having struck on the opening day with Constitution Hill and Shishkin, and prefacing the big race with a bloodless triumph for the superb two-mile novice chaser Jonbon, looked likely finally to collect the great prize after half a century of trying.

His Mister Coffey jumped the Aintree fences with a rare alacrity from the off and was still several lengths clear at the second-last fence but, by then, his stamina reserves had run out. Joined at the last by Corach Rambler, who quickly strode clear up the run-in, Mister Coffey expired to finish only eighth. Gavin Crowell’s Vanillier ran a great race in second.

If we had thought Noble Yeats had made up a lot of ground in the Gold Cup in his previous race, he had even further to retrieve this time and to get as near as he did, reflects greatly on his stamina and resolution. He’ll be back again.

Corach Rambler only usurped him as favourite in the final minutes, despite Noble Yeats drifting to almost double his SP earlier in the day, as the Merseyside police, aided it seems by members of the public, were carting demonstrators away. More than 100 were arrested. As I said, it was obvious really. Corach Rambler had won only narrowly at Cheltenham, but his idling half-length margin was not fooling the chase handicapper who put him up 10lb. That much well in - no penalties after the weights are published - but he’ll be wearing Noble Yeats’ heavy boots in 2024!

Last year, Emmet Mullins worked the system to get his horse in, sold and triumphant. This time it was repeat "offenders", Russell/Scudamore senior and Fox (he needed to pass a late fitness to take the ride having been ruled out of Ahoy Senor’s near miss behind Shishkin, Brian Hughes taking over).

How the champion would have loved to have been asked to deputise in the big one! In the event he sat (I would imagine) disconsolately in the well-appointed jockeys’ room, waiting an hour for his unplaced ride on a 40/1 shot in the bumper. Maybe it’s time for the champion to ride in more of the big races rather than clock up title-winning numbers around the northern gaffs.

One footnote: my good friend Siobhan Doolan took three days off from her busy multi-stranded life to be the face of Aintree’s owners’ dining room.

I am sad to report that over the entire stretch of the meeting, her efforts to placate owners waiting to be seated for lunch brought a very disappointing response from people who should have known better. If the racecourse executive provides a facility for owners, who after all provide the very expensive horses that put on this greatest of all horse racing shows, that facility should be big enough and have sufficient palatable food to last through a day’s racing. Three days in fact.

Neither consideration was successfully achieved by Aintree. But while the people that organised and prepared the food and accommodation came up short, just one front of house face bore the brunt of what she described often as “owners and their friends taking the piss!”. What do they say, don’t blame the messenger. Aintree’s course executive should offer a serious apology to a very popular young member of the racing fraternity.

- TS

Two-Year-Old Runners on Debut: Part 2

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This is the second in a two-parter looking at two-year-old (2yo) debut runners, writes Dave Renham. The first part - which you can read here - looked at market factors, gender, sires and damsires. This concluding half hones in on a plethora of trainer data. I have collated data for UK flat racing for six full years from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf and all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP), with commission of 5% taken into account.

 

Overall 2yo debut stats for trainers

I am going to start with a full table of trainers who have had at least 75 two-year old debut runners in the past six seasons. I think it is important to share as much raw trainer data as possible. I have ordered the trainers by win strike rate:

 

* C Johnston from 2023; ** Jack Channon from 2023

 

Any trainer from Eve Johnson Houghton upwards deserves credit, with ten of those eleven in profit as well as having a decent strike rate. Sticking with strike rate, Charlie Appleby stands head and shoulders above the rest and I will be digging deeper into his stats later in the piece.

 

2yo debutants in 5f races

I want to split the data by distance so I am looking at the minimum trip first. There are fewer 2yo races over 5f compared to six and seven furlongs, so that does need to be taken into account. Here are win strike rates for those trainers who have had at least 50 debut runners over 5f:

 

 

There are three trainers with excellent strike rates of over 20% (Archie Watson, Clive Cox and the Johnston stable); at the other end of the scale Tim Easterby is a pretty dismal 1 from 118. Not surprisingly Watson, Cox and Johnston have all made a blind profit with their runners to BSP. Having said that, I would personally be a little wary about Watson as the last three seasons have been less good than before with only three winners from 27 (admittedly he has had a few near misses).

Another trainer worth mentioning is Michael Bell. He did not have enough runners to qualify for the graph above, but of his 39 juvenile debutants over five furlongs, 10 won (SR 25.6%) for a BSP profit of £17.41 (ROI +44.6%).

 

2yo debutants in 6f races

Up an extra furlong now to three-quarters of a mile, or six furlongs if you prefer. Again, a trainer must have saddled a minimum of 50 qualifiers to appear in the table. Here are all the trainers who qualify, this time in tabular form:

 

 

As can be seen, the profit / loss figures are all over the place – you only have to look at the stats for Jamie Osborne to see that. Just one decent priced outsider winning can turn a very poor run of results into a profitable set.

Richard Hannon has comfortably secured the most winners, but he has had the most runners over this trip. Four of the six study years have actually turned a profit, with only one poor year which was 2020. Hannon's profits have come from maiden races rather than novice events and he has recorded a 19% win strike rate in the month of May. In fact his winning percentage when combining May, June and July results is almost double that of his August to December figure (13.9% versus 7.2%).

 

2yo debutants in 7f races

Onto to 7 furlongs now. The data is based on 50 runs minimum once more and the focus is on the trainers with the highest win percentages:

 

 

Charlie Appleby remains head and shoulders above the rest, but one other stat that stood out was for the Johnston stable. Their record in June in 7f races has been excellent with 14 debut winners from 49 (SR 28.6%) for a BSP profit of £40.41 (ROI +82.5%). Not only that, 12 further horses were placed. I am wondering if this is down to excellent race placement: June is the first full month of 2yo 7f races and many of the big juvenile stars of the future tend to be seen later in the season. Hence the standard of 7f races in June are likely to be weaker in quality compared with later in the year.

Before moving away from the June Johnston data, it is worth sharing that 12 of his winners figured in the top three in the betting from 32 runners returning an impressive over 90 pence in the £.

 

2yo debutants in 1m+ races

A look at the longest distances now. The furthest distance a two-year-old runs is 1 mile 3 furlongs and that has only occurred twice in the last six seasons. Just over 70% of races at 1 mile or more are actually raced at a mile.

Let’s look at the trainer splits (50 runs or more):

 

These are the only trainers to qualify, mainly because longer distance races for 2yos are less common. Indeed, there are nearly twice the number of 7f races compared to races of 1 mile and up.

Charlie Appleby again tops the table to make it a clean sweep at distances from six furlongs to a mile, so now it is time to dig deeper into his record with 2yos making their racecourse debut.

 

Charlie Appleby's 2yo Debutants

To begin with let us look at the yearly breakdown in terms of win percentage / strike rate:

 

 

As the graph shows he has struggled to maintain those staggeringly high figures from the first three years in the review window. However, the figures for 2020 to 2022 are still pretty darn good.

I want to look at jockey data now; William Buick and James Doyle are the two riders Appleby uses the most as the table shows:

 

 

As punters, these type of findings are clearly important. Buick and Doyle have scored twice as frequently when compared to all other jockeys that have ridden 2yo debutants for Appleby. Clearly we should focus our attention on the mounts of Buick and Doyle only.

In terms of price, most of Appleby’s runners are at, or near, the head of the market. I have split his results by different Industry SP price bands but with the results calculated once again to BSP.

 

 

The table suggests that the very shortest priced runners are poor value. From this past data it seems better to focus on horses that are likely to be priced between 13/8 and 7/1.

Here are some other Appleby stats I would like to share:

  1. 2yo debutants over 5f are rare which is why he did not appear in the 5f stats earlier. However, from his 20 5f runners, an amazing 13 won (SR 65%) for a BSP profit of £26.95 (ROI +134.8%).
  2. Appleby has a similar strike rate with male and female runners – male runners have won just over 28% of their starts, females just under 27%.
  3. He does not send that many runners out early in the season. However, if we combine April and May data he has secured 22 victories from only 51 first starters (SR 43.1%) for a profit of £26.48 (ROI +51.9%).
  4. He sends more debutants to turf courses (245 versus 99) but again has similar strike rates. On turf it is 28.6% and on the sand it 26.3%. The A/E indices are almost identical as well (0.91 and 0.92).

 

Trainers and 2yo debutants in the top three in the betting

Moving away from a specific focus on Charlie Appleby now, I want to examine trainer records when their debutants start in the top three in the betting. This avoids big-priced winners skewing the profit and loss figures. It also makes it a relatively fair comparison between the trainers. I have used 50 or more runs once again as my qualifying mark:

 

 

I find this type of table illuminating. Considering the prices (96% of all the qualifying runners were single figure prices), any trainer in profit has fared extremely well. The top five in terms of strike rate - Appleby, Charlton, Watson, Bell and Cox - have secured a profit, and I feel these trainers are worth noting this season when one of their runners is in the top three of the betting.

At the other end of the scale, Andrew Balding has a really poor record: of his 18 favourites just one has prevailed. In Balding's defence, the stable is very much known for horses improving through their early starts. His runners won just 8.2% on debut in the six-year study period, but that shot up to 17.4% on second start, 22% on third start and 26% on fourth start. Not strictly 'on topic' but worth noting.

The A/E indices are shown in the table but I think it worth graphing them as well to see which trainers have been the best ‘value’ according to this metric:

 

 

The seven trainers with the highest A/E indices are also the seven trainers with the highest strike rates (albeit not perfectly in the same order). The trainers with the lowest five A/E indices (all under 0.65) are the trainers that fill the bottom five places in the strike rate order. As a general rule, you would expect to see that type of correlation with strike rates and A/E indices, but it does not always happen like that.

 

Trainer Jockey combinations with 2yo debutants

Earlier we saw the importance of jockey booking when looking at Charlie Appleby debutants. Well, there are a couple of other trainers where we find similar stats. Firstly Archie Watson:

 

 

Oisin Murphy has not ridden for Watson for over a year due to his suspension, but it is clear from this data that if he, Danny Tudhope, or Hollie Doyle especially is on board then a good run is expected. The 11.1% figure for ‘All other jockeys’ is poor in comparison.

Likewise when we examine the Gosden stable we see a similar pattern. Robert Havlin has ridden 220 of the 512 2yo debutants and his win record far outstrips the rest:

 

 

There is a huge difference in A/E indices, too, with Havlin at an impressive 1.07 and all other jockeys combining to average out at 0.76. The final stat to mention here is that Havlin / Gosden runners have proved profitable over the 220 debut rides to the tune of 34p in the £ at Betfair SP.

 

Trainers and Courses for 2yo debutants

Data is a little limited here so I would not go headlong into backing every combo in the table. However, I still want to share the most impressive course stats for some trainers. The vast majority have produced a six year profit and all bar one have produced a strike rate of 20% or more. The one that did not was close to that mark (19.35%) and, due to a good sample size (62 runs), I thought it was worth including:

 

 

This table is a bit of a 2yo debut Trainer Track Stats, to use Matt's previous trainer-based report terminology. Personally, during this upcoming season, I will be taking note of any of these combinations that have secured a double figure number of wins – I will not back them blind, but I will look at the relevant runners in some detail in order to determine whether I would deem them to a potential bet or not. The Gosden / Yarmouth combo is one I will certainly look out for.

Before I finish, let me summarise some of the key stats this article has highlighted:

 

MAIN 2yo DEBUTANT PART 2 TAKEWAYS

  1. Charlie Appleby has by far the highest win percentage and he is consistent across all race distances. His 13 wins from 20 runners in 5f races is arguably the highlight despite the smaller sample size.
  2. In 5f races the stables of Archie Watson, Clive Cox and Charlie Johnston have the best strike rates of those with 50+ runners over the six-year period.
  3. Over 6f Charlie Appleby and the Crisford stable are the only ones to have secured strike rates in excess of 20%.
  4. The Johnston stable has had an excellent record in the month of June in 7f races.
  5. Over 1 mile+ Charlie Appleby, Ralph Beckett and the Gosden stable have the strongest looking stats.
  6. Charlie Appleby, Roger and Harry Charlton, Archie Watson, Michael Bell and Clive Cox are trainers who have secured good strike rates with 2yo debutants from the top three in the betting. In addition they have all secured individual profits.
  7. Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, Charlie Hills and Andrew Balding have poor records with 2yo debut runners which start in the top three in the betting. All are famously patient trainers.
  8. Charlie Appleby does twice as well with juvenile debutants when either William Buick or James Doyle are on board when compared with all other jockeys.
  9. Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle, and the Gosden stable with Robert Havlin are positive trainer / jockey combos.
  10. There were 12 wins from 41 2yo debutants from the Gosden stable making their racecourse bow at Yarmouth. These runners have produced profits of over 92p in the £.

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I hope you have found the two articles on 2yo debutants useful. I certainly enjoyed uncovering these interesting angles. 2yo debutants will now take a back seat, editorially speaking, with my attention switching to 2yos on their second starts. That is next on the agenda for researching and next week I will be sharing my findings with Geegeez readers.

Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Another Noble National?

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For the whole of the intervening 12 months, I have been insisting that Noble Yeats will win his second Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford. Winner at 50/1 as a seven-year-old last April, he is set to carry 15lb more this time and start at one-sixth the odds. But no matter!

As the legendary Red Rum, half a century ago, and his modern nearest equivalent Tiger Roll showed in their turn, weight is not really the barrier to a repeat win. It’s the aptitude for the fences and a spirit that remains unbroken having run over them, that wins the day.

The three horses had widely differing starts in life. Red Rum, foaled in 1965, started with a dead-heat in a two-year-old selling race at the 1967 Grand National meeting which in those days was interspersed between flat racing and jumps.

It was another six years from that modest start before his epic first win, when Red Rum and Brian Fletcher pegged back Crisp and Richard Pitman from a distance behind as that two-mile specialist ran out of puff on the run-in.

Saturday is his half-centenary and I can still remember that we watched the race in the Managing Editor’s office on the fourth floor of the Daily Telegraph building in Fleet Street. I believe that was the only television set in the entire building and in those days a cup of tea in the canteen cost 10p – amazing, really, how inflation took over after decimalisation two years before in 1971!

I’d tipped him in the paper coming back from the weights lunch the previous month in whatever swish Central London hotel they staged it. Red Rum had 10st 5lb, receiving 23lb from Crisp, the great Australian, trained by Fred Winter. He also won the following year and, after second places to dual Gold Cup winner L’Escargot and then Rag Trade, he completed the hat-trick aged 12 in 1977 under Tommy Stack.

Tiger Roll’s start came a year and a half later in life, in a three-year-old hurdle at Market Rasen, trained by Nigel Hawke. As with Red Rum, he was to change hands before astounding Hawke with what the son of Derby winner Authorized would achieve.

He too won consecutive Grand Nationals as an eight and nine-year-old. He was denied the chance of a hat-trick when the 2020 race was cancelled due to the Covid pandemic. Those two multiple winners were among 14 eight-year-olds that won the race in the period between 1940 and last year.

Noble Yeats was filling that gap, repeating the achievement of Bogskar, the 1940 hero and the last seven-year-old to win before Noble Yeats.

The amazing part of his story was his inexperience over fences. Indeed, his inexperience per se, before his date with destiny. He did not make his chase debut until six months before his Grand National victory, in a 2m2.5f conditions event at Galway, which he won by a neck.

At that point his entire career record had been: second in a point; then third and first in maiden bumpers before a sixth in a Graded bumper and then an easy win in the only hurdle race he’s ever contested.

Following on from that initial chase success, his next win, amazingly, was in the Grand National and the miracle is how trainer Emmet Mullins and the horse’s connections ever got him qualified to run.

The Grand National is a race open to horses aged seven years and upwards (phew, just made it) that have been placed in the first four in any steeplechase of at least 2m7.5 furlongs and must have run in six chases.

Additionally, they need to have run in at least one steeplechase in the current season and have recorded a rating of at least 125.

The cut-off date this year was February 15. So, by around that date in 2022, Mullins and the horse’s then owner Paul Byrne – he wasn’t acquired by Robert Waley-Cohen until after all the red tape had been successfully tied up – had several conditions to fulfil.

His chase programme after the initial win was an unplaced run a in a Grade 3 over 2m4f; sixth in a 2m110y handicap; ninth in the big Leopardstown 3m chase over the Christmas holiday; and then he pulled up in a race the following month. That just left a few days for him to run in a sixth chase and finish in the first four effectively over three miles.

Naturally, original planners Mullins and Byrne had the answer, coming across to England for a Grade 2 novice chase at Wetherby on February 5.  In the event, he was comfortably beaten by the smart Ahoy Senor, but Mullins and Byrne knew they would be fine to set up their attractively packaged Aintree prospect as there were only four runners. All they needed was for Noble Yeats to get round.

That he did for a creditable second and with his rating of 148 already well ahead of the minimum handicap requirement of 125, the deal was duly and swiftly completed. He even went off to Cheltenham for a feeler under the not so young amateur who was going to bow out of riding after partnering him at Aintree.

I must say, if anyone saw it coming I certainly didn’t, but here in Sam Waley-Cohen was one of the old-style amateurs who bar his family and business background, would have made a decent fist of challenging for a jump riding title. Instead, along the way he happily rolled up at Cheltenham, riding the 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run for his father and Nicky Henderson.

His successes at Aintree were even more plentiful, often outclassing his fellow amateurs in the Foxhunters and always seeming to get round whenever he encountered the fearsome fences.  Even against the pros, he had possibly the best radar around the big fences. That was one of the qualities Red Rum’s dual winning rider Brian Fletcher also had at a time when it wasn’t so easily achieved.

Noble Yeats was ninth to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima at Cheltenham, in the race before his big win, giving Sam a nice feel, racing wide all the way. Twelve months on, after the year older Corach Rambler was advertising his 2023 Grand National claims with a repeat Ultima success for the Lucinda Russell team, Noble Yeats’ attentions were fixed on much bigger fish.

He started in the Gold Cup, now with new rider Sean Bowen on board and, while never in contention, the way he finished to take a late fourth place, as the front three headed by Galopin Des Champs had their own private battle, was the most eye-catching Aintree trial you could imagine.

You could just about pick him out a dozen lengths behind the second wave coming down the hill for the last time in the Gold Cup and he was still a long way back two from home. From there he finished fastest of all for fourth. On the long gallop home from the last fence down the far side second time round to coming back onto the racecourse for the two final fences at Aintree, I expect his galloping power to wipe them all away.

Last year’s runner-up Any Second Now gets a nice weight pull and the first two home in the Cross-Country at Cheltenham, Delta Work and Galvin, are two obvious top-class threats for Tiger Roll’s trainer Gordon Elliott. But that fourth place in the Gold Cup and his fantastic fast finish was enough to reinforce my long-held belief that here is the reincarnation of Red Rum, exactly half a century from that little champion’s arrival on the Aintree scene.

- TS

Roving Reports: Here, There and Everywhere

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I was going to write the next part of the blog after Aintree, as I was expecting that to be the next time anything even remotely exciting was going to happen, but last week turned into a busier week than I expected it to, writes David Massey.

It started on Sunday, at Garthorpe Point-To-Point. Having been denied my point fix when Revesby was called off during the cold snap this winter, I was determined to go, particularly as the weather forecast was favourable.

If you've never been pointing, you ought to give it a go. Don't worry about getting lost on the way there - once you're within ten miles of the track, you can follow any dirty 4x4 or Land Rover and be pretty sure you'll end up in the right spot. Tweed is a given, even on a warm day, and if you've a dog, so much the better.

There's a good crowd, maybe somewhere between 800-1000 is my best guess, and they are treated to some close finishes. Sadly none of them involve the horses I back during the afternoon, and my best result is the lamb and mint burger (local farm, naturally) for a fiver which is so tasty, I end up taking a pack of four home. Buy local, buy British, go pointing!

Having done the lot in, I nearly bag a pheasant on the way home. He darts out from a field and runs right in front of the car. How I missed him I'll never know. I see him running off in the rear view mirror, seemingly unaware of his near-death experience. Suffice to say, he's been a sight luckier than I have today.

Monday sees me back on the S&D team at Southwell and that too is reasonably well attended. Fixtures between Cheltenham and Aintree normally see attendances go down, as once the euphoria of Cheltenham is over, people tend to wait for Aintree or switch their attentions to the Flat, and the midweek fixtures are particularly hard hit. However, Southwell bucks the trend, and after I do the punters panel with Steven Powell before racing and give Rostello (11/2) in the first, we've a few more happy punters at my joint. As ever, our regular punters get BOG, and it matters not whether you're having £2 on or £200, they all get it. Plenty of books will give you benefits if you become a regular with them, whether that be BOG or next price up.

Joe Dadancer is my nap on the preview and his win gets me some of the Garthorpe losses back. I like him a lot, it'll be interesting to see where he turns up next.

Market Rasen on the Wednesday is my next port of call. The usual A46 (Northern version) bottlenecks around Newark aren't as bad as normal and I've time for a coffee on the way up. This is a mistake, as for the last ten miles to the track I'm bursting for the toilet. Let that be a lesson to you all. Get to the track first, then have a beverage.

The ground is supposed to be on the soft side, but as I drive into the grassy car park and the back end of my Auris steps out in an Ari Vatanen moment (Google, young 'un) I have my suspicions it may be worse than that. After they come back from the first with plenty of dirt on them, I go back through the card and start laying anything that doesn't want the mud. It's a successful ploy, and it also leads me to back the no-hoper Leskinfere at 10 on Betfair three places. When he rolls in a distant third the Garthorpe losses are but a memory. I celebrate with a chocolate biscuit (the best ones are wrapped in foil, another little tip for you there...) and a strong tea.

Thursday sees me at Warwick, which I wasn't intending doing but I need to pick some bookmaking kit up for Stratford on Sunday and the bookmaker I'm working for will be at Warwick, so it makes sense to meet there and collect it rather than run around like an idiot on Saturday. It's a beautiful day and the sun makes me think Spring is finally here. I shall discover later in the week this is not the case.

One of the regular Midlands bookmakers is missing from the fixture, and indeed all Midlands fixtures for the foreseeable. Swannbet, better known as Graham and Natalie to me, will sadly not been seen for a while as Graham, we find out, has cancer. I send him a message to wish him well and hope we will see him back in his rightful place in the ring before much longer. Sport is important, but it pales into insignificance at times, and today feels like one of those times.

Punting wise on the day, it's pretty much straight across for me with three bets that aren't sighted but I do have a few bob on Mr Palmtree on Betfair, as he looks in superb condition. Sadly I give too much back in running but he does at least ensure the day isn't a disaster. On the way home the police are holding traffic on the M69 due to a bad crash near Leicester; annoying as that is, when you pass the accident and see the mangled wrecks the cars are, you always thank your lucky stars it isn't you caught up in it. A 20 minute delay is neither here nor there compared to our health.

Next morning I get a call from Jason on the S&D firm. "Don't suppose you can work Sunday at Ascot, can you?" I'm not keen, if I'm honest, but Jason is desperate for a worker (most of them are on holiday, it turns out) so I'm happy to oblige this once. I'm already booked to work Stratford on Saturday, so it makes sense to stay over and travel onto Ascot Sunday morning.

I do love working Stratford. I think it's just about my favourite track to work. Always a decent atmosphere and as I've said before, the whole crowd seems to have a bet. It's only small money but you feel busy and you can make a book. However, my hearing seems to be getting worse; I was convinced one bloke asked me for two pounds on something, but when he gets a ruck of nifties from his pocket it's clear he's asked me for two grand. I lay him a monkey of it and tell him if he wants more, go and see my boss. He gets on, but his pick loses. He's back again next race, has a grand on the jolly, and watches that finish tailed off too. We don't see him again.

Both results and business are good and there's a little top-up on wages at the end of the day. Pays for the evening meal, and after a poor night's sleep (I never sleep well away from home) it's off to Ascot.

I get there early as I want to do a bit of work in the press room in the morning. Perhaps unsurprisingly the place is somewhat deserted, but that does mean when lunch comes out (chicken, veg, roasties and Yorkshires) there's plenty to go around. That's very welcome as when I go down to the ring to work, it's absolutely Baltic.

The main stand is basically causing a split between the front and back of the place. Round the back, by the paddock, there's barely a breath of wind, the sun is radiating heat and people are outside drinking and eating. Out front, in the wind and shade, there are polar bears running around wearing anoraks, it's that cold.

It's a family fun day at Ascot so you know what that means. Small money, lots of it, and rather than a fiver I make sure my minimum bet for the day is £2. That works, but it also means I'm out of change by Race 2.

Next door to me is Steve Bailey, aka Stevie Stretch. Steve, like me, enjoys these family days and is happy to show the kids how things work (all within the 18-plus boundaries, of course). Two mums are by his joint with three young kids, the youngest of which keeps touching all Steve's change. And like most kids, the more he tells her not to touch it, the more she touches it. I sneak up behind them, gesturing to Steve to be quiet, before sticking my head in and saying, in a stern voice, "I hope nobody is touching the change over here." You've never seen a kid put her arms by her sides so quickly.

Do you remember me telling you on a previous blog how, on these days when you're dealing with mainly novice punters, how they work their way from the top of the board to the bottom? As such, Blueking D'Oreaux, number 1 on the race card and top of the lightboard, is a real punters result on a day like today. Loads have had their £2.50 and fiver each-ways on; the other joint has taken a £100 win bet at 40-1. There's some serious concern we might run out of money, for all that's obviously a good result. I scrape together what I can spare for Jason's four-grand payout and it leaves me with about £300 after we've paid out. I need a result in the next to get the cash flow back up; Black Gerry provides respite, although I'm delighted for the lady who had a tenner each-way as her grandad, Gerry, had passed away earlier in the week, she tells me.

My only bet of the day, Charging Point, looks like winning coming to the last but gets it all wrong and I have to settle for the place money. I swear it's getting colder and by the time we get to the last the place has emptied quite a lot. Get paid, pack up and go home. On the way back I call into Toddington Services for food, sadly I'm in there the same time as about 500 jubilant Bolton supporters on their way back from Wembley after winning the Papa Johns Trophy earlier. So, fast food it ain't, with a 40 minute wait for a Chicken Royale and a drink. On the way back to the car I hear my name called; it is none other than Laura Morgan, trainer of Charging Point. "Caught you in the act", she says, referring to my unhealthy meal. I tell her I thought her horse was unlucky and she agrees. "He's off for a break now", she tells me. And I'm off home, getting back about 8.30pm, with an aching back and legs. Standing around in the wind all day really takes it out of you. Especially at my age...

- DM

Two-Year-Old Runners on Debut: Part 1

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Two-year-old (2yo) races on the flat are a bit ‘marmite’ – some people really focus on them, others avoid them like the plague, writes Dave Renham. The issue with 2yo, also called juvenile, races is often lack of form / information. This is especially the case when it comes to a 2yo making its racecourse debut.

In this article I wrote last year I looked at some basic trainer data for 2yo debutants, but did not go into any real detail. What follows is first of two parts where I will expand upon these initial findings by looking at many other areas, as well as updating any figures from that 2022 piece.

I have gathered data for UK flat racing for six complete years from 2017 to 2022 and this includes turf and all weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP for short), with commission of 5% taken into account. [If you have a 2% Betfair account, keep that in mind with the quoted figures]

Market Factors with 2yo Debutants

Let me begin by looking at the performance of 2yo debutants by price. The prices shown are Industry SPs because they fit to a more uniform price pattern – profits / losses / returns are to BSP as previously started:

 

 

As we can see, the shortest priced 2yo debutants have been very poor value – those priced evens or shorter would have lost you nearly 20 pence for every £1 staked. There has been better value in bigger priced horses – those priced 15/2 or bigger. It is interesting that the 15/2 to 9/1 bracket has provided five winning years out of six; likewise five out of six winning years for the 10/1 to 14/1 bracket also. The two biggest price brackets proved much more volatile as you would expect with some big winning years and some years with heavy losses.

Now we know using ‘starting price’ as a basis for a bet is not perfectly possible as we do not know the SP or BSPs until after the ‘off’. However, if betting late we can at least get very close to betting at the desired price.

 

Top three in the betting

Sticking with market factors, I want to do a little bit of digging into debutants who start in the top three of the betting. From the price data we have seen so far it seems unlikely that we will find many profitable avenues. However, as with all stats busting, it is not just positive angles that are useful to find; finding negative stats is equally worthwhile as horses that are avoided due to these adverse findings will certainly aid our bottom line come the end of the year.

I want to share two specific areas in terms of 2yo debutants who were in the top three in the betting. Firstly let's review some course data. I have only included courses that had at least 100 qualifiers. The table is ordered by strike rate:

 

 

There is quite a difference between the ‘top’ course, Yarmouth, and the ‘bottom’ one, Sandown, in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. Both courses have similar field sizes and in general it is a fair comparison. Now Yarmouth traditionally has been a course that some of the top trainers target with their juveniles. I am not sure if that is why debutants from the top three in the betting have done well there; however, it is always worth checking course stats in conjunction with other factors to see if we can gain any edge.

Of course, this subset of data is reporting on the last six seasons only so, with course stats, I often back check a different subset of data to see if results correlate. When I went back further and looked at the previous six years (2011 to 2016) I noted that four of the top five courses - Yarmouth, Nottingham, Leicester and Doncaster - all had virtually identical strike rates and A/E indices. Therefore I would hope and expect that similar results will occur this year and in the near future, at these four courses at least.

The second area I want to look at is time of year. The graph below shows the monthly breakdown of the performance of 2yo debutants in terms of A/E indices, when in the top three of the betting. I could have equally shared strike rate data as that correlated showing the same pattern.

 

 

The value in these runners clearly lies in April and May. In fact this cohort made a profit in both months, with May showing solid BSP returns of 13 pence in the £. Therefore if you are looking to back horses near the top of the betting April and May seem to be the months to focus on. In contrast June and July have seen very poor results. The A/E index for ALL 2yo runners in ALL races is 0.89 which gives you a useful figure for comparison purposes.

In general though, my personal market advice if using price as a guide, is that there is more likely to be value in those horses that are around the 15/2 mark or bigger. Hence, I would not be put off bigger priced runners, especially if I had other valid reasons for betting the horse. Of course these animals will have a low strike rate, even if they are ‘good value’, so it is not a strategy for the short term or the faint-hearted.

 

Gender of horse with 2yo Debutants

I always look at this factor when I research anything racing wise. Males as we know outperform females from a strike rate perspective across all race ages / types etc. That does not always mean that you should prefer male runners over female runners as prices will compensate for the general strike rate differential. If we compare ALL 2yo runners in the past six seasons (not just debutants), we will see that males had a win strike rate of 12.05%, females at 9.61%. Let us look at the 2yo debutant figures now:

 

 

The strike rates have narrowed, but there is a chasm between the two in terms of returns. Why is this the case? The simple answer is that most of the really big priced debutant winners have been male over the past six seasons. Is this likely to continue in the future? Well, there’s the million dollar question. My guess is ‘not’ for two reasons. Firstly I cannot find a logical reason to explain why males have had more big priced winners in this time frame. Secondly I did back check a previous six year period (2011 to 2016) and for this series of results females actually came out as the profitable sex. Sometimes we have to accept that there is no pattern or edge to be truly found regardless of what the raw profit and loss figures indicate. The relatively lowly A/E number is a strong reminder to 'proceed with caution'.

 

Sires of 2yo Debutants

Onto sires (fathers of the horses) next. Here are top ten performing sires in terms of win strike for 2yos on their debut (minimum 100 runs):

 

 

What is useful about this specific sire data, is that each horse has just run once. Sometimes sire stats can be skewed when horses rack up multiple wins; this is not the case here.

For those of you who have read my sire articles before, most of these stallions will be very familiar to you – Shamardal, Kingman, Dubawi, Frankel are ‘regulars’ when it comes to good win records. Unfortunately, Shamardal won’t be having any 2yo debutants this year or indeed in any future year as he sadly passed away in 2020.

Of course win strike rate is not the only statistical ‘measure’ we are interested in. A/E indices, which we looked at earlier, are another measure I like to analyse where possible. The graph below shows the sires with A/E indices above the magic 1.00 figure:

 

 

It is good to see four sires appearing for the second time – Night of Thunder, Lope De Vega, Mehmas and Kingman were all in the win SR% top ten. These four in particular are worth close scrutiny this season when a 2yo debutant is sired by one of them.

Looking in more depth at Kingman, we can see that there has been excellent consistency year by year. Here are his 2yo debutant win strike rates split by year:

 

 

His first season as a sire with runners on the track was 2018 so there is no data for 2017. The strike rates show good correlation, which is unusual for sire stats, especially debutant sire stats. One would hope to see Kingman hit the 20%+ mark once again in 2023.

Before moving on from Kingman, it should be noted that his record with these runners is better over ‘further’. Generally his 2yo debutants perform better at 7f or further compared to the sprint distances of 5 and 6f. This is actually the case when you look at all of his 2yo runners as a whole.

Dubawi is a sire who has scored slightly better than one win in every six on 2yo debut, but overall would have lost you 21p for every £1 bet. However, sticking to debutants at races of 1 mile or more, we could have secured a profit of 13p in the £ thanks in part to a healthy strike rate of 21.2% (25 wins from 118).

We know that for all the positive angles we come across there are bad stats too. Indeed, there are typically more bad ones than good ones. Thus it makes sense to look at sires with the poorest records over the past six seasons. Below are those sires who have the lowest win strike rate percentages with 2yos on debut:

 

 

Not only do they have low win percentages, but the A/E values are very poor (Adaay excluded). I would not be keen on backing a 2yo on debut if sired by one of these ten. Combining these sires in one group, and excluding any horse that started favourite, their collective record reads just 39 wins from 1285 runs (SR 3.0%) for a loss to BSP of £644.27 (ROI -50.4%).

 

Damsires of 2yo Debutants

Damsires are the final port of call for this first article. Damsires are the sires (fathers) of the dams (mothers) of the respective horses. The grandfather on the female side as it were – sometimes known as maternal grandsires. Here are the records of all damsires who have had at least 100 2yo debut runners (minimum win strike rate 10%):

 

 

There are a fair few in ‘the black’ but, as we know, most of these profits are likely to be down to a big priced winner or two. However, any 2yo making its racecourse bow whose damsire has an A/E index above 1 is worth keeping an eye out for. Nine of the damsires in the table have achieved that – Dark Angel, Sea the Stars, Marju, New Approach, Galileo, Teofilo, Iffraaj, High Chaparral and Barathea.

Galileo has been the damsire of nearly 450 2yo debutants in the past six seasons and it is worth noting that there is a fairly significant difference in strike rates with turf runners versus all weather runners:

 

The turf strike rate is about two-thirds better than his all-weather win percentage, and there is a clear difference in A/E indices as well. Do not be fooled by the profit figures, however; these have been heavily skewed by two of the all weather winners which were priced at 130.0 and 41.61.

As I did with the sire data, it is worth sharing the poorer strike rates as well – below are those damsires with a strike rate below 6%:

 

 

It is perhaps best to avoid these damsires, although I did find some interesting data regarding Oasis Dream when it came to distance stats, as the graph below shows:

 

 

Clearly for this damsire, what distance the 2yo debutant is running over makes quite a difference. At the minimum distance, the 10.1% strike rate is actually above the average figure for all damsires. Obviously the 7f and 1m+ figures are way below the average. Hence any Oasis Dream debut runner over 5f should not be immediately dismissed from calculations. Whereas I think you can safely draw a line through most such runners trying 7f or more. Going the extra mile in terms of research will occasionally bring some greater insight that has the potential to keep us ahead of the crowd.

 

MAIN TAKEWAYS

  1. Very short priced debutants (evens or shorter) have been poor value.
  2. Horses from the top three of the betting have done well in April and May. In contrast these runners have performed poorly in June and July.
  3. In general horses priced 15/2 or bigger are likely to prove better value than shorter priced runners.
  4. 2yo debutants sired by Night of Thunder, Lope De Vega, Mehmas and Kingman should be seen as a positive.
  5. Sire Kingman has been extremely consistent and it is worth noting he has a better record at 7f or more.
  6. Adaay, Australia, Bated Breath, Holy Roman Emperor, Helmet, Zebedee, Poets Voice, Twilight Son, Equiano and Heeraat are sires to avoid. This is especially true if the relevant juvenile debut offspring are not favourite.
  7. Damsires Dark Angel, Sea the Stars, Marju, New Approach, Galileo, Teofilo, Iffraaj, High Chaparral and Barathea have all offered some value in the past six seasons in terms of 2yo debut runners.

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In the second and final part of this juvenile debut series, the focus will be on trainers. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Easter Eggs

/in /by

For once, the start of the new turf flat season at Doncaster is not left jettisoned out on its own, writes Tony Stafford. Thanks to the convenient proximity of Easter, Good Friday racing in the UK – they still have refrained from joining in on the holy day in Ireland – features three flat-race programmes this week.

Ranged conveniently geographically apart – in the far north at Newcastle; Home Counties at Lingfield and on turf in the west at Bath – all three are staged on Arena Racing tracks.

I always used to love the early morning Good Friday drive to Lingfield where the All-Weather Championships were held until 2021. Newcastle took over for the keynote fixture last April and for the second instalment, seven “championship” races again carry total prize money of £1,050,000 – one race of £200k, five worth £150k and an opening 3yo Listed of an even £100k.

The last part of the Lingfield approach involved a slow crocodile through the streets of Lingfield village and then location in a massive marquee with some average fare for the invitees. Now Lingfield has a lesser, but still good quality card, entirely of handicaps.

It’s uniform in terms of rating limitations – upper maxima of 80,85,90 or 95 - and with five races of the seven for four-year-olds and upwards, it has been designated the All-Weather Vase meeting.
Last year Chelmsford got the third spot but Bath, where early-season mud is often on offer compared with the hard-baked, non-watered ground that can occur in high summer as it did last year, is back again.  This is again a uniform card, another level down in ability terms from Lingfield, with upper ratings respectively of 75, 70, 60, 3 x 55 and a lowest 52 for the seven races.

Lingfield has a total of 173 entered for its septet, with guaranteed money of £65k for four and £45k for the other three, making a total of £375,000 on the day. Maximum fields are guaranteed for five of the races, while a couple might fall a little short.

If anyone doubted how many ordinary horses are in training and how hard owners and trainers are willing to seek a chance to run them, let Bath tell its own story. In race order 42, 30, 72, 80, 66, 47 and 73 horses have been nominated – all handicaps with respectively 17 allowed in each of the first two contests and 14 in the other five. There is no provision for any race division. Total money available to be won here is a straight £200k, including £26,000 apiece for the 0-52 and 0-55’s, and making £1,625,000 for the three meetings on the day.

I wonder whether the Arena management team are happy with their change of venue for the big show. There have been compliments paid about the Tapeta track there in the past but there has not been universal approval of certain aspects of track management in the latest deep winter period. Some trainers have been telling me that the surface has been very different this winter, even vowing not to return.

Maybe that’s why, at Saturday’s five-day stage, only a total of 80 horses were entered for the seven races, collectively worth £1million-plus.

Last year 66 horses contested the seven races on the inaugural Newcastle staging and it does not take much imagination to suggest that it might be hard to match that after the 48-hour stage on Wednesday.

But the most disappointing aspect must be that only four horses are coming from overseas to Gosforth Park. Joseph O’Brien has recent Dundalk wide-margin winner San Andreas in the Mile race while Ado McGuinness has Hood’s Girl, also a Dundalk specialist, in the Fillies’ and Mares’ race, and Harry’s Bar in the Sprint.

Christopher Ferland has recent Chantilly winner Loubeisien entered, also for the Sprint, one of the races in the programme the French used to win for fun in the early Lingfield AW Championship. She is her country’s only entry this time around.

Last year five French and three Irish horses made it to Newcastle, Yann Barberot providing the 10/1 winner of a finish of two short-heads in the 6f Sprint. Joseph O’Brien’s San Andreas finished second in the mile race then, just nosed out by the William Haggas-trained five-year-old My Oberon.

Last week’s article majored on the fact that older horses can have a second rewarding life after being in training in the UK. A year on, San Andreas will be coming back to the North-East to aim at a nice prize. His conqueror from last year has since been moved on to Australia and Annabel Neasham’s stable. Ms Neasham was saying over the winter that she had a host of potential owners waiting to get into ownership of any the horses from Europe that she manages to acquire.

My Oberon was one of those and on Saturday at Randwick racecourse in Sydney, the now six-year-old, running in the ownership names of D F Degenhardt, Hirecha Racing Et Al, which probably encompasses a good proportion of those striving for a piece of the ex-British action, had his finest hour to date.

A winner first time on arriving Down Under in a Group 2 last October, he had a few less rewarding runs until this weekend. Annabel lined him up for the 20-runner Grade 1 handicap, The Star Doncaster Mile and again he was involved in a close finish.

Not quite a nose this time, but a short-head and it made a difference of £955k to D F D and company. Favourite Mr Brightside won it for the Hayes family and Lindsay Park Racing and partners who collected the first prize of £1,3778,000. Neasham’s team were left to slink home with a paltry £423,000 for their trouble and afternoon’s entertainment.

In his UK days, My Oberon took three runs (starting as a late-developing three-year-old) to get off the mark for William Haggas and after that first win he was already rated 109. He never dropped below 108 or reached higher than 114, thus a solid Gr2/Gp3 performer. In his 16 runs in the UK and France he won five and placed five times. He collected £350k, a reasonable figure, which averages out at just north of 20 grand a run, satisfactory enough you would say.

Five outings in Australia have, by comparison, brought spectacular riches to the new owners, who are already up to £563,000 with plenty more to come one would imagine.

Many believe UK and Irish racing are the best equine environments in which to develop talent, but rewards outside the top levels are simply falling behind many other administrations. Owners are almost forced to sell horses of the order of a My Oberon and with what can be earned elsewhere, they do carry a decent sell-on value.

Saturday’s Pertemps Network Lincoln looked an above-average version of the traditional Doncaster flat season curtain-raiser beforehand and the way the first three came away from the rest of the 22-runner line-up suggested it was. It was great to see a revival of form not just for David Menuisier and Migration, a seven-year-old top-weight running off 107, but also for owners the Gail Brown Partnerships.

Gail looks after the winning owners after every race at Goodwood all season but also runs syndicates based on Goodwood. These have been going through a quieter spell, but this big win will have cheered her up.

I say big win, but for a race with the tradition of the Lincoln and its place as the season curtain-raiser it’s a shame to be worth only the same as the average of all seven races at Newcastle on Friday. Migration’s previous most important win came fittingly in a near £40k to the winner race at Goodwood and no doubt if the ground is on the easy side for the May meeting there, he will be back for another crack at one of the bigger pots available.

Until Migration and Benoit De La Sayette breezed past up the stands rail, Awaal for Simon and Ed Crisford, looked like winning a big race on the Saturday after they also came up a little short in a rather more valuable contest in Dubai a week earlier. Their Algiers was second in the Dubai World Cup, picking up £2 million. No doubt Awaal, Arab-owned, will be plying his trade in the Middle East in the future after this fine run off 102.

Doncaster was hard work for the horses and everyone over the weekend, but isn’t it great to have flat racing on turf back again?

I’ll be going to Southwell tomorrow for the first run in the UK for Ray Tooth’s ex-French gelding Sea Urchin, trained by Ian Williams. The champion is booked to ride and I well remember William Buick coming clear down the middle of the track to win on Ray’s filly Catfish at the Glorious Goodwood meeting for Brian Meehan a decade or so ago. I think they will have their work cut out to beat the James Ferguson horse Zoology, but it will be great to see those grey and pink colours on the track again.

- TS

Spring Mile / Lincoln Video Preview

/in , /by

To mark the return of flat turf racing to Britain, I've recorded some thoughts on the two big field mile handicaps being run at Doncaster tomorrow. The Spring Mile and the Lincoln are both Class 2 straight mile handicaps and both have 22 runners as I write. The ground is currently soft, heavy in places, with the sky taps still turned on - so heavy might be what we get.

With all that in mind, I share my thoughts in the video below. In it, I share:

- Common features between the races
- Draw / run style biases
- Instant Expert overviews
- Some picks!

[*As ever, if I speak too slowly for you, use the little cog icon bottom right on the video to choose a faster playback speed]

Good luck!

Matt

 

April on the Flat: Focusing on the turf

/in /by

For flat fans the wait for the new turf season is almost over, with the Lincoln fixture taking place this weekend, writes Dave Renham. Indeed, for fans of Irish flat racing, it has already begun! For me it is the most exciting part of the year as all the winter number crunching and research I have done gets ‘tested’.

In this article I will be looking at results in April (UK racing only) going back ten seasons, focusing on turf racing only and hence excluding the all-weather. Due to Covid there was no racing in April 2020 so I have gone back to 2012 to get the tenth year of data. Profits / losses have been calculated to Industry SP, and also quoted to Betfair Starting Price when appropriate.

I will be concentrating on general factors including market data, trainers and last time out (LTO) performance. I will drill deeper when applicable, for example to make comparisons with handicap and non-handicap results. So let’s get cracking:

Market Factors in April Flat Racing

So how do fancied flat horses fare in April on the turf? Here is the breakdown of the performance of top three in the betting:

 

 

In terms of returns to SP, second favourites have lost the least amount of money (just). To BSP second favourites have again done best of the three, losing just 2.4p in the £. Favourites would have lost you 7p in £, and third favourites a similar amount (7.1p).

Moving onto strike rates, second and third favourites have won as often as they should when comparing the data with other months of the year. Taking the ten years as a whole, favourites have under-performed in April when compared with other months. The overall strike rate for turf flat favourites (all months over 10 years) is 31.7%, so the 29.39% figure for April is just over 2 percentage points lower. I suppose this is to be expected – we have a good proportion of favourites making their seasonal debut after several months off and so fitness and form lines are likely to be a little ‘blurred’. Favourites therefore have not been particularly good value at this time as year, when looking at the whole data set. However, I do want to look at favourites in more detail and, as will be seen, recent favourite performance has seemingly ‘improved’.

Favourites in April

First things first, let me look at the yearly win and each way strike rates. Each way strike rates combine and win and placed horses:

 

 

The last five years has out-performed the previous five for both winning favourites and each way market leaders. If I group this 5-year data in a table it may be easier to see the recent trend more clearly:

 

As the table shows there has been an uptick in strike rate, returns, A/E indices and Impact Values over the past five seasons. The win & placed (EW) strike rates reflect this also with the last five years showing 4.5% more favourites filling an each way position. So a better recent record for favourites, but despite this improvement their figures are still a little shy of favourites at other times of the year in terms of strike rate and returns.

 

April Favourites by race type

Time to compare handicap market leaders versus non-handicap ones:

 

As one might expect, non-handicap favourites have by far the higher strike rate. However, returns are virtually identical for both groups in terms of A/E.

One positive stat worth sharing is that if we focus solely on 3yo only handicaps, favourites have actually made a small profit in this month. 3yo handicap favourites have had 194 wins from 663 runners (SR 29.3%) for a small profit to SP of £7.28 (ROI +1.1%). This profit edges up to £40.68 (ROI +6.1%) when betting at BSP.

Looking at a relatively poor favourite stat now from April handicaps – horses that were favourite in 4yo+ handicaps won 23.2% of the time, but lost nearly 16p in the £ to SP (12p to BSP).

 

April Favourites by age

A look at the age of favourites now. Having seen the 3yo handicap data, I am expecting that age group to edge this:

 

 

As I had expected 3yo favourites across all race types have secured the best results – in terms of strike rate, return on investment, A/E index and Impact Value. 3yo favourites actually would have broken even to BSP if backing every single one in April going back to 2012. One age group where favourites perform relatively poorly in this month is 2yos. If we graph 2yo favourites across all months we can see that April is the month with the lowest strike rate, and compared to May to August there is a significant difference. (I have not included March as there were on 13 2yo favourites in total during the time frame).

 

 

Hence I would be wary of backing 2yo favourites at this time of the year. This makes sense as, in most 2yo races in April there is virtually zero form to go on, with 73% of juveniles making their debut in this month. This is likely to be a key factor in the lowish strike rate.

With 2yo favourites struggling a little there must have been value elsewhere. Amazingly perhaps, if you had backed all 2yos 5th or bigger in the betting market you would have made a profit, even to Industry SP! OK, the profit would have only been £38 to £1 level stakes which equates to around 3½p in the £. To BSP, though, these figures would have seen around £500 in profit, returning over 45p in the £. On average you would have only had 5 or 6 winners from roughly 100 bets each year, and there were five winning Aprils out of the 10. I wonder if there are any brave punters out there who will try this out in 2023?!

 

Trainers: April Turf Flat Racing

Let us now analyse trainers on the turf in the month of April. Let me begin by looking at the ten-year figures as a whole. I have included trainers who had at least 100 runs in April and have secured a strike rate of 11% or more, and I have ordered them by strike rate:

 

 

There is a fair smattering of profit as you can see – just under half the trainers on the list have proved profitable to SP. It should be noted that this will often be due to the odd big priced winner. Hence let us look at trainer performance with only the runners priced in single figures (minimum runs 60):

 

 

There are now nine trainers in profit to SP; however this figure increases to 15 if using BSP.

Let's dig into Charlie Appleby who heads both lists – first, here is his overall turf record in April (all prices). 197 of his 213 runners have been priced in single figures and, as the two tables above show, he has made a profit with all runners and with shorter priced runners only. His figures on the face of it are mightily impressive. Appleby's first year with results was 2014 and he had just one winner from 17 runners. From there he has ‘flown’. Here is the yearly breakdown by Win Percentage (SR%):

 

 

Five of the eight Aprils have proved profitable to SP; to BSP this becomes six (2017 profitable). Four of the last six Aprils has seen a strike rate in excess of 35% - Appleby has a good record all year round, but he clearly has his string ready to fire from the get-go.

I find it interesting that Appleby's win percentage in handicaps and non-handicaps is remarkably similar, as the next table shows:

 

 

There are comparable returns, too, with both race types returning over 20 pence in the £. This shows a good level of consistency. That consistency can also be seen when we look at his returns (ROI%) to SP across different market ranks:

 

 

As the bar chart shows Appleby has seen profitable returns across the board. He definitely looks a trainer to keep on the right side of this coming April.

Before moving away from trainers, here are some additional statistics that will hopefully give us more chance of making a profit through the first month of the flat turf season:

  1. Along with Appleby, the following trainers have been profitable to SP with favourites – William Haggas, Roger Varian, John (JJ) Quinn and Richard Fahey.
  2. Roger Varian has proved to be profitable when saddling runners at Newmarket in April thanks to a strike rate close to one in four. Focusing on his runners that started favourite or second favourite, his record at HQ reads a very impressive 13 winners from 22 (SR 59.1%) for a profit to SP of £25.25 (ROI +114.78%). To BSP this improves slightly to returns of 121p in the £.
  3. Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien has not sent many runners over in April, but as a rule they have struggled with just four wins from 49. He is just 3 from 32 with horses priced in single figures, and has had only 1 win from 16 with favourites.
  4. Richard Fahey tends to be a fast starter in April. He has secured profits at the following courses – Catterick, Leicester, Beverley, Redcar and Thirsk. Not only that, but his strike rate at all five courses has been 20% or higher. Horses from his stable that are making their seasonal debut have also made sound profits to SP; to BSP these runners would have returned you a profit in eight of the ten Aprils. In addition to this, Fahey has secured a 23.5% strike rate with his 2yos and six of the ten seasons would have secured profits to BSP. His overall figures with his 2yos show a 24p in the £ return to SP, 40p to BSP.
  5. If you are looking for a trainer to spring a surprise in April, then Richard Hannon is arguably the most likely. He has saddled eight winners priced 25/1 or bigger in April from only 72 qualifiers. The next best any other trainer has achieved in the time frame is three wins – one of those, Tim Easterby, had 250 qualifiers to obtain those three wins!

 

Last time Out (LTO) Factors

The final area I wish to look at in this piece is connected with LTO factors. Firstly, a look at the race code of the last run. Now, because all weather racing goes on all the year round, there is a good percentage of turf runners in April that had raced on the sand LTO. Some horses also raced LTO in a National Hunt race as the table below indicates. I have added Betfair SP data to the table this time:

 

LTO runners who raced on flat turf have the best strike rate but to BSP they are the only group to make a loss. Now, of course, big prices can skew vast data sets like this, and so what the data tell me is that there seems no real edge to what type of race code the horse ran in last time out.

Moving onto last time out finishing position – the graph below gives us the spread in strike rates:

 

 

It is interesting to see horses that finished second LTO actually won slightly more frequently than LTO winners (in percentage terms). As a rule the graph shows the normal type of trending down as we go from left to right. LTO winners actually have broken even to BSP, so don’t be put off by a horse that won LTO, even if that win occurred the previous turf season.

 

MAIN TAKEWAYS for APRIL TURF FLAT RACES

  1. As far as the market is concerned, second favourites have proved to best value, especially to BSP.
  2. Favourites have produced very similar returns in non-handicaps and handicaps.
  3. Favourites in 3yo only handicaps have made a small profit.
  4. 2yo favourites generally under-perform, as do favourites in 4yo+ handicaps.
  5. Charlie Appleby tends to start the season in very good form. His runners deserve close scrutiny regardless of price.
  6. Favourites from the yards of Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Roger Varian, John Quinn and Richard Fahey have been profitable in the past ten Aprils.
  7. Roger Varian has an excellent record at Newmarket, especially with horses from the top two in the betting.
  8. Aidan O’Brien is one of the best in the business but his UK runners in April have really struggled recently.
  9. Richard Fahey is a trainer to generally keep on the right side of.
  10. LTO winners have broken even to BSP during the period of study.

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So there we have it; hopefully this article will help your punting this month. It is not an easy month to make a profit so I would urge selectivity where possible.

However, before I go, as a bonus here are three pointers to the first big meeting of the year at Doncaster.

  1. Favourites have had a poor record in the last ten meetings losing 31p in the £ to BSP. Favourites have performed particularly poorly in handicaps with just 10 wins from 93, losing 43 pence in the £ to BSP. Odds on favourites have made a small profit however (11 wins from 15).
  2. Third, fourth and fifth favourites have all made a profit to BSP.
  3. Richard Hannon is the only trainer to secure a strike rate in excess of 20% from those trainers who have had at least 25 runners (11 wins from 52).

- DR

Monday Musings: Old Stagers

/in /by

Another big international meeting, the fourth of its stature since October, Dubai World Cup night following the Saudi Cup last month, the Breeders’ Cup in early November and the Arc meeting in late summer has been and gone; naturally, with a sideways acknowledgement to Champions Day back home in Ascot soon after the Arc, writes Tony Stafford.

Three conclusions occurred to me after Saturday’s latest extravaganza at Meydan. First, that the world’s biggest races nowadays seem ever more susceptible to older horses. Second, the Japanese can win the world’s most valuable and coveted international events more readily nowadays than anyone else, be they on dirt or turf.

And then thirdly, a question. What has happened to all those multiple-coloured caps of strongly fancied members of the home team that used to mop up at their leisure each last Saturday in March as we looked on, marvelling, from back home?

From the moment Coolmore- and Japanese-shared seven-year-old entire Broome swooped late under Ryan Moore to deny Siskany in the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup, the second race on Saturday’s card, Charlie Appleby and William Buick were reduced to an unaccustomed minor role, which was even more surprising given the astonishing success they had all over Europe in the previous 12 months at the highest level.

True, they did go close once more, when Nation’s Pride looked a possible winner before finishing a creditable, close third behind Frankie Dettori and last year’s runner-up Lord North in the Dubai Turf. This was one race with multiple representation for the boys in blue, with Appleby’s second string in 9th and Saeed bin Suroor’s one runner in 13th place behind the Gosdens’ globe-trotting gelding who is also seven.

A feature of World Cup night since its inception in 1996 has been the ability to attract top horses from around the world. With almost half the races confined to dirt, the poor record of European horses in those races was to be expected, whereas the Americans licked their lips and, from the outset, filled their boots. For the record, Michael Stoute with Singspiel in the second-ever running 26 years ago, remains the only UK-trained winner of the Dubai World Cup itself.

Such was, and still is, the draw of massive money that Cigar, undisputed world champion at six years of age when he turned up, led credence to the event and, over the years, some of the greatest US stars were tempted with Curlin, Animal Kingdom and in 2017 Arrogate, all, plucking the prize.

In all, 11 American horses have won the race, an equal figure with the home team, whose first nine wins (eight for Godolphin, one for Sheikh Hamdan) were all supplied by Saeed bin Suroor. The disgraced Mahmood al Zarooni (replaced by Appleby to such brilliant effect over the past decade) and Kiaran McLoughlin, by Doug Watson, an American who has been based in Dubai for 30 years, had one each.

There was much celebrating when Doug’s 6yo gelding Danyah, a 33/1 shot trained for Shadwell Farm, won the Al Quoz Sprint on Turf. Another winter Dubai hardy annual in the Hamdan colours, Dane O’Neill took the riding plaudits.

The last US winner of the World Cup was Country Grammar, as a 5yo last year, when he was a fourth success in the race for Bob Baffert. Since that big money win, Country Grammer was emphatically put in his place by the one horse of the last couple of years whose presence would have been greatly welcomed, but Flightline is already going through his paternal duties at stud in the US.

Flightline beat Country Grammer on his final unbeaten career start in last year’s Pacific Classic at Del Mar by 19.5 lengths, never mind that otherwise the Baffert horse hadn’t been out of the first two for a couple of years.

Second in the Saudi Cup last year before stepping up to win the big one at Meydan, he followed a similar route this time around. He again ran a good second in Riyadh but on Saturday, carrying Frankie Dettori’s hopes of a fifth win in the race as a 52-year-old in his final year as an international rider, he bombed and finished only seventh.

The winner in what developed into an interesting contest, if one lacking glamour and a serious home challenge, was the Japanese Ushba Tesoro. This 6yo entire from Japan was the country’s second winner of the race, by a widening margin from the Crisfords’ (father and son) year-younger Algiers. The previous Japanese-trained winner, in 2011, was Victoire Pisa.

Algiers is a rarity for a horse trained in the UK, being a dirt specialist, and he warmed up for Saturday with two wide-margin victories on the surface. James Doyle had the ride and for once wasn’t upstaged by his friend and colleague Buick, as this race carried £2 million for the runner- up – the winner got £5.8 million!

Ryan Moore was another UK jockey earning his corn, and there is no question that over the past year the former champion has got his best form back. He timed the challenge on Broome around the outside to a nicety on turf and then switched to an equally masterful display on Sibelius, trained by Florida-based Jeremiah O’Dwyer. Jerry has added two syllables and a new career thousands of miles away, since being banned from riding for 18 months in the UK 12 years ago.

Jerry was a likeable Irish journeyman, based in Newmarket, but his involvement with Sabre Light, late in 2008, cost him his riding career. A horse that was switched from Alan Bailey to Jeff Pearce earlier that year became Jerry’s regular mount, and one on which he won several times initially.

The case, I seem to recall, involved a couple of runs a little later and revolved around the horse not winning when certain individuals thought he should (or was it the other way round? – it was the other way around – Ed.) and then needing to put it right next time, whichever way round that was.

It took ages for the authorities to bring the case. Apart from Pearce, who also lost his trainer’s licence – wife Lydia and later son Simon taking over – another former handler, who had won a Classic some years before but by then had handed in his licence, was also rumoured at the time to have known what had been (or not) happening.

Now all these years later, there’s Jerry, proving that everyone deserves a second chance and the fact he trains Sibelius for Japanese connections suggests he might well progress further in his new career.

If there was an equine star on the Meydan card, it had to be Equinox, winner of the Golden Shaheen over 1m4f on the turf. Even money to win for the fourth time in only six starts (plus two close 2nds), he now has £8million in earnings after dominating this from start to finish.

This was another nice payday for Ryan, aboard Westover, the £1 million runner-up, albeit closer at three-odd lengths than the ability gulf between the horses truly represents. Still, it was a good run for trainer Ralph Beckett’s 2022 Irish Derby winner and nice for Ryan not to have a rear view of him this time.

One unsung hero in the World Cup, formerly owned and bred by Alan Spence and the Hargreaves’ and a regular winner for Clive Cox, was 8yo Salute The Soldier. He was only eighth in the big race but won a Group 1 (his second over there) the previous time and has earned more than £1m for Bahrein-based Fawzi Nass.

Alan Spence had something closer to home to celebrate on Friday when his veteran hurdler On The Blind Side won for the Nicky Henderson stable at 50/1. “Were you on, Alan?” I asked. “Not a penny”, he replied, “but am I Happy? Delighted!”

Just so, Anthony Honeyball, whose debutant Crest Of Glory, a 4yo gelding, won the £60k to the winner Goffs UK Spring Sale Bumper. He strode 15 lengths clear of 18 opponents which included a stable companion by the same sire, owned by a Geegeez syndicate. “He had an awful run!” said the Editor. “We’ll bring him back next season all being well, when we have high hopes of him.”

Oh, the name? It’s Dartmoor Pirate. By the same sire, Black Sam Bellamy as the winner, he was seventh despite the difficult run and is rated pretty useful - which the winner must also be!

- TS

Roving Reports: The Carnival is Over…

/in /by

So, how was Cheltenham for you? Game of two halves for me, Brian, with the second something of a disaster compared to the first, writes David Massey. It's normally the other way around; normally I'm grateful to come out of the first two days level, then when the stamina kicks in on the New Course I tend to do better (I can just find slow horses, that's all) as the week goes on. Not this year, though. I could have done with Cheltenham finishing Wednesday night.

Let us start at the very beginning. I began the week at Stratford with my good friend Becky, who I was staying over with Monday night before moving on to Worcester for the rest of the week. I normally stay with her all Cheltenham week but since she moved house a couple of years ago I have to bring my own inflatable bed along, and my back simply won't take a week of that. Last year I was so crippled by the time the Foxhunters came around I could barely walk. So this year I shared a house with Rob and the S&D Bookmaker crew, merely so I could have the luxury of a proper bed at night.

Stratford was windy but I did find a couple of winners to start the week off on the right note and get the fish 'n' chips in with on the way back. Up bright and breezy next morning, I was all ready to get out to the track for an early start but Becky, who is one of the Cheltenham photographers for the week, looked like death warmed up. She'd been coughing a bit on the Monday and that had developed into a chest infection overnight. Cheltenham week is knackering enough if you're fit; if you've not passed the vet, it's a sight harder. I set off, Becky following on later.

I make my first mistake of the week having parked up. Starving and in need of breakfast, there's a chuck wagon doing bacon rolls for six quid. I eagerly purchase and wolf it down as I enter the track. Imagine my joy at finding out the media centre, which is where I'll be this week, is giving out bacon rolls for free to those there early enough. Six quid the worse off, I decide to have one of the free ones, simply so I can average out the bacon rolls at three quid a piece, which hurts less that it did.

I'm with the Sporting Life team this week, which is great, and "Scoop" Linfoot is already busy beavering away. I write up the morning tips with Rory Delargy, based in the dead-tree press room in the main building; for all that the facilities are a little better in there, I'd rather be where I am, based behind the weighing room, as the walk to the paddock is a lot shorter. (Over the four days I shall do over 60,000 steps. Compare that to the Saturday and Sunday that follow where you'll be lucky if I shift me ar*e off the sofa.)

It's good to catch up with people I haven't seen for a year and, in some cases, more, and by the time I've done that and digested Thursday's declarations it's lunch, and then the Supreme.

I've no great opinion on the Supreme but Tahmuras looks really well beforehand and just for a moment I imagine the Brits getting off to a wonder start and giving the Irish a bloody nose on the first bell. It doesn't last long. Tahmuras is well stuffed behind Marine Nationale, the Irish saddling the first eight home.

There's a wonderful moment in the Arkle as the big screen in the paddock reveals Straw Fan Jack finishing with a flourish for fourth, with trainer Sheila Lewis and connections going absolutely bonkers. You'd have thought they'd have won it! How wonderful it must have been for all of them to be in the winners enclosure for such a big Grade 1 event. I was delighted for them all, in much the same way I was a couple of days later for Laura Morgan and co when Notlongtillmay finished second in the Turners. It means so much for the supposed smaller yards when they have horses like these that perform so well on the big stages.

Corach Rambler and The Big Breakaway carry my hopes in the Ultima. The latter is beaten after two fences, some early scrimmaging putting paid to his chances (put a line through this, I still think he could run a big one in the National) but it's deja vu all over again as Corach Rambler storms up the Cheltenham run-in to claim the prize for the second year running.

We all want Constitution Hill to be good and my word, he is, barely coming out of second gear to dispose of State Man et al. Then Honeysuckle brings the house down to win the Mares and it seems the world and his dog is in the winners enclosure, all showing their love for Henry de Bromhead, Rachael Blackmore and the amazing mare.

I'm in the paddock to look at them for the Boodles when, standing beside me, seemingly out of nowhere, is Junglist Matt Hancock. I think about asking what he fancies when I realise that could be a leading question and think better of it.

I like Jazzy Matty in the paddock and invest accordingly. A pleasing result follows as he wins at 18s. Mr Freedom, despite the pilot almost falling off turning in, gets me a nice bit of place money too (where would we be without extra places these days?) and I call it a day on the betting front, heading for the car park as the jolly old favourite wins the National Hunt Chase. A bad day for the books.

Wednesday. Delargy is staying in Worcester too, and I go and pick him up early doors. Sadly the traffic on the M5 is so awful it takes us an hour to get to the track. The free bacon rolls are long gone by the time we are in; in desperation I go hunter-gathering for breakfast and end up with a sausage bap. A bargain at seven notes.

I'm waiting for a couple of friends to turn up in the Vestey Bar around 11am when Pat Neville walks in. He's clearly waiting for someone too. I cannot help but think if his was a Henderson or a Nicholls he'd been getting mobbed by lads asking for tips, but nobody seems to recognise Pat. I go and wish him good luck with The Real Whacker and he thanks me, and tells me he thinks he'll go close. He does better than that as once again, he makes light of Cheltenham's fences in the Brown Advisory and wins by a short-head from the fast-finishing Gerri Colombe. I suspect more people will recognise Pat now. Having backed the Whacker and laid Sir Gerhard for a place my punting is going terrifically, too.

It's a shame that Edwardstone leaves his A-game at home and in the end, Energumene is a facile winner of the Champion Chase. I think we were all hoping for a proper contest and that, sadly, fails to materialise. That's no fault of Energumene, of course, but you want the best horses to perform in the big races and Edwardstone didn't.

The previous week I'd done a piece for the Life with Ed Chamberlin where Ed was utterly disgusted that I'd said Delta Work was the best bet of the week. I'd already had one good bet on him and after seeing him in the paddock, went in again. Turning in I was worried Galvin might do for him but he battled on in a most game fashion to score. Ed childishly sticks his tongue out at me as I walk across the paddock afterwards, but I don't give a monkey's as the nap goes in for the week. I even manage a cheeky each-way fourth on Lecky Watson at 80s in the bumper to finish the day off. My best start to a Cheltenham ever.

If only we had stopped there.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning it rains. Cleverly I get up early Thursday morning, pile into everything that wants it genuinely soft, thinking I'll be in a great position later to trade out of them all. We're in time for the bacon rolls and having tipped the tea-bar lady a fiver when things were going well yesterday, I'm offered two of them. I do not refuse this most generous gesture.

If the nap was Delta Work then Banbridge was the NB, but unsurprisingly he'd been taken out with the rain that had fallen. Money back on most of the ante-posts, so no great damage done. However, once Stage Star wins the Turners and Good Time Jonny the Pertemps it becomes blindingly clear that it certainly isn't soft, and it's only just good to soft, the wind drying things out, and all my morning bets and going to be sunk. The majority of them drift like the Kon-Tiki, and there's no way out of this. Worse, I've shoved them all in multiples, and the value of them now is some way south of the price of a bacon roll. Fugitif offers me some hope in the Plate, but he finds Seddon too good, and by the end of the day I've given back well over half of what I've accumulated in the first couple of days. On the way out I buy a Mars Bar as compensation; it is barely bigger than a Fun Size one. No fun for me today, that's for sure.

Steaks are on the menu Thursday night and Rob tells us about his week so far, two lousy days and one brilliant one. He's confident a few results Friday will see him in front. Rory joins us on the evening and gets pelters from myself for ordering a cocktail for dessert. What's wrong with a sticky toffee pudding? He's not the bloke I thought he was...

I wonder how much that cocktail affected him as at 7am Friday morning I get a text from him. He'd moved hotels the previous day and clearly couldn't sleep. "Any chance we can go early? This place is haunted..."

It is not for me to steal Rory's story, but he was convinced he'd been visited in the night by a cat. "I felt it jump on the bed, then jump over me, and settle down next to me." Having put the light on and seen no cat, he tells me, he started Googling "ghost cats" at 5am and couldn't get back to sleep. On enquiring at reception whether the hotel has a cat, he was told no, "but there was one once". He can't get out of the place quick enough.

By Gold Cup morning there are some tired faces around the media centre. Carol Vorderman appears and does some interviews. Two from the top, please Carol. She's followed in by someone who has been in Love Island; being old I know not who she is, but she seems very sprightly.

Becky, who has been on the Fisherman's Friends all week, looks no better than she did Tuesday when she arrives and looks ready for it all to be over. She has my sympathy. A mid-morning coffee with a friend ends with us chucking £25 a piece into a placepot, which lasts two legs but no further. In fact there aren't many going at all after three legs and the Foxhunters will see the rest of them off, just about. Premier Magic, winning at 66-1, had recently been successful at my local point, Garthorpe. Did I have a penny on? What do you reckon? A tenner each-way on Shantou Flyer, who has been to more Cheltenham Festivals than most racegoers, softened the blow, but for me the week is done. After expenses, a small profit. I hit the M5 soon after to avoid the worst of the traffic and am home for seven.

Aintree next. I'm back on the firm and will be working in the ring, so I'll tell you exactly how small the dresses were on Ladies Day in the next instalment...

- DM

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