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By this time next week it will all just about be done, writes Tony Stafford. The 2022 flat limps on for another three weeks after Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot, but William Buick will have collected his first Champion Jockey trophy and Baaeed will probably have brought his career-ending tally to 11 from 11 – three behind Frankel – and be ready for a glittering career as a stallion.
If we thought the deaths in recent times of Prince Khalid Abdullah, Frankel’s owner-breeder, or Hamdan Al-Maktoum, who never lived to see his best-ever horse race, would mean a curtailment of two of the three giant Arab racing and breeding teams, evidence last week in Newmarket, both on the track and at the yearling sales, would have confounded that view.
Much was made of the first sales purchase by Hamdan’s daughter, Sheikha Hissa, of an expensive yearling; and then on Saturday, Chaldean, bought as a yearling by Prince Khalid’s successors for 550,000gns from Whitsbury Manor, won the Dewhurst Stakes. That made it four wins in five career starts and enough to stake his claim as champion juvenile of the year.
As Ryan Moore prepared to ride Coolmore’s Aesop’s Fables in that race he made little secret of the fact he expected the other Juddmonte contender, the home-bred Nostrum, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, to prevail.
Ryan would have been surprised had he been in the stands rather than on the back of the Aidan O’Brien runner on his way to the start to see the lack of confidence in Nostrum in the face of sustained support for Chaldean. The Andrew Balding horse was ridden by 51-year-old Frankie Dettori, able to take advantage of the Group 1 meeting exemption from on-going riding bans.
The Italian had been on board when Chaldean won the Group 2 Champagne at Doncaster in emphatic fashion last time out and he must have been worrying that he might not be fit to take the ride when he made an unscheduled flying dismount three furlongs from home in the opening Zetland Stakes: his Gosden-trained ride, Liftoff, clipped heels and fell. Rarely has there been a more appropriately named casualty.
Frankie said as he was still hot after his exertions in the big race he felt all right, but that those half-century old bones might be suffering a bit the following morning. Reprieved as he was, once he drove Chaldean to the front after a furlong, he was never going to let go, quickly seeing off Nostrum and Richard Kingscote before the last furlong. Here, Royal Scotsman proved a more resolute challenger, and the winning margin over the Jim Crowley-partnered and Paul and Oliver Cole trainee was just a head.
While the three days of Tattersalls Book 1 were never dull, it was still very much a private party between Godolphin and Coolmore, only relaxed to let in the next level of buyers when they condescended to leave the stage to the rest.
Suffice to say that the near 400 yearlings that found new owners over the piece, did so at an average of almost 300,000gns with plenty exceeding a million quid and one at £2.8 million. The total aggregate was £125 million. Tatts can count themselves satisfied at their commission on that first part; look forward to a less dramatic but also far from negligible Book 2, today to Wednesday, leaving Books 3 and 4 to mere mortals in the second half of the week.
Of course, then we have the December Sale, featuring top-class racing and breeding fillies and mares at the end of next month and into the first days of December. One of the busier young men at the sale last week was Ollie Sangster, son of Ben and Lucy and grandson of the late Robert.
He was seeking out potential owners and yearlings to join in his new venture training from one of the smaller yards at the spectacular Manton Estate, previously owned by his grandfather and, on his death, his sons. Now the property of Martyn Meade, who trains there in conjunction with his son Freddie at one end of the farm, while Brian Meehan continues having been on site for two decades, Ollie will have use of those wonderful downland gallops. As the backdrop to his entire life so far, no wonder he is excited at the prospect.
Ollie has done all sorts of jobs in the racing and breeding business considering his relative youth, but the last three years have brought plenty of excitement as he owns a minor share in the top-class filly Saffron Beach.
He shares the Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained four-year-old with his mother and James Wigan. It’s a real family affair as Jane is his step-aunt. Congratulating him on managing to get a piece of such a smart filly, he said, “I was in her from the start.”
The records show Saffron Beach changed hands as a foal for 55,000gns and since then she has won six of her 13 starts, two at Group 1 level and total earnings of £805,000. A daughter of the exciting young sire New Bay, she has been a late addition to the December sale and I reckon she is guaranteed to be one of the most desired lots on offer, almost certainly well into seven figures.
Ollie’s father Ben has, over the past few years, re-centred his Swettenham Stud breeding interests close to Manton House which remains his family home. He hopes that if Ollie’s training project takes off, he might have to find a new base for the mares and young stock.
A final note on the Newmarket Future Champions meeting which, apart from high-class two-year-old races, also included a cash-depleted Cesarewitch. Club Godolphin stepped in as sponsors otherwise what would it have been worth? As it was, £103,000 to the winner for such a major race was a disgrace, considering that was only one-third the amount the winner received four years previously.
There was yet another Irish winner, but this time not for Willie Mullins who had switched his better stayers to the Irish Cesarewitch the weekend before. Handicap ace and recently banned and reinstated Charles Byrnes was successful with the 147-rated hurdler Run For Oscar, who strolled home under David Egan more than three lengths to the good from the Hughie Morrison pair of Vino Victrix and star hurdler Not So Sleepy, who was adding a third place to two fourths in 2019 and 2020.
They provided a joint 72 grand to the Morrison owners. Second and third in 2018 would have brought 138k, almost twice as much. Only 21 horses, rather than a ballot-requiring 32, bothered to turn up, while the reinvigorated Irish Cesarewitch, worth seven times as much as last year, carried a similar payout to the winner as ours had been in 2018. Willie Mullins didn’t win it, that race going to Aidan and the three-year-old Waterville, who got up late to beat the Mullins pair Echoes in Rain and Lot Of Joy.
With the wonderful Kyprios apparently done for now, and Stradivarius finished – don’t worry Bjorn Neilsen isn’t looking for food banks yet, he sold a Frankel yearling last week for 2 million gns – Trueshan is left as the top candidate for the British Champions Long Distance Cup. At least, that was, until Aidan decided against running pre-race favourite Waterville at Newmarket and now has Ascot in mind for the improving young stayer.
While the jockeys’ title race finishes at Ascot, the trainers’ championship continues to the end of the year. But, the Vertem Futurity the following weekend at Doncaster apart, all the action for the big stables will be overseas.
Charlie Appleby’s remarkable winning spree in recent weeks has got him back a few quid in front of William Haggas. We can expect Baaeed to pick up the £737k for the Champion Stakes but if last year’s Derby winner can follow him home and Modern Games can pick up the £623k in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Inspriral will be tough of course – it might not be quite all over. It probably is though, in all consciousness!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Chaldean_Dewhurst2022.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-10-10 06:46:022022-10-10 06:46:03Monday Musings: Almost, but not quite, done
We are coming to the end of the Flat season and, for many of the on-course workmen, that means the work, whilst not exactly drying up, certainly shrinks in size, writes David Massey. At the risk of getting into politics, a tough winter lies ahead for plenty of them and, with meetings already being lost to hard ground, the sooner the rain comes, the better.
I'm one of the luckier ones in so much as I've got the writing if meetings are abandoned, but all the same, a change in the weather is much needed if we are to get back to anything like a normal fixture schedule. Replacing a lost Ludlow with Chelmsford one night might keep the shops happy, but it's hardly a like for like.
Anyway, I digress. I was due to work at Warwick for their season opener a couple of weeks ago, on this occasion writing up some paddock notes; but the funeral of the Queen saw racing cancelled on the day. That gave me time to study Tuesday's Warwick card in some detail, and I duly turned up at the meeting with great confidence that I had it all worked out.
The afternoon went like this: the stone cold place lay I had in the first almost won, the paddock standout in the second couldn't jump for toffee, the back-to-lay in the third fell at the second. The paddock pick in the fourth went lame and pulled up. No bet in the next two races and the high point of the day was my each-way third in the bumper. We held a two minute silence at Southwell the next day, not for those we have lost, but for the amount of money I managed to do in in one afternoon.
It really is amazing how many times I approach a meeting thinking I've all the winners, only to watch the money drain away as I go on the Chevy. The more I try the worse it gets. You have to be true to yourself and not change tack, because you might miss a good-priced winner you fancy if you start (literally) changing horses in midstream, so you stick to the plan. On this occasion, it did not work, and the drive home consisted of trying to justify my selections to myself whilst listening to PM on Radio 4.
Anyway, on to Southwell the next night, and a shift for S&D. I always enjoy an evening at Southwell, even if, as it did here, it rains, as everyone knows everyone else and you're guaranteed a few laughs. We normally take the mickey out of Stan, a fellow worker for Barry Johnson and an ardent Man U supporter, as he's convinced they'll win the league this year (actually, he's convinced every year). I write this just as his team had their backsides handed to them by their City rivals at the weekend; I am very much looking forward to seeing Stanley later this evening.
My next stop is Haydock on the Friday. After the Warwick disaster, and confidence at a low ebb, I have few expectations the afternoon will be any good. Again, I'm writing up paddock notes. Haydock has a wonderful paddock, one of the best in my opinion, with plenty of viewing spots under the trees, and as it is of such a size you can really compare horses with one another.
The first favourite, Rogue Spirit, sweats up very badly and starts misbehaving. It gets a black mark from me and I decide to lay it. Rogue Spirit then proceeds to go down to the start like a dream and come back even better, winning an easy two lengths. Here we go again... Or do we?
I have the next down to two on paddock looks and of the two, I just prefer Helm Rock. A quick look at his form says he will enjoy the softer underfoot conditions and I invest each-way. The relief when he wins at 8-1 cannot be understated. In the next, Double Cherry gets a near-perfect score on fitness and coat from me. He looks outstanding. I've already backed Speycaster but I'm happy to have another good each-way bet on Double Cherry. After getting hampered a furlong out I'm cursing my luck as it looks like he's got the wrong end of the photo, but the slow-mo tells me otherwise. My luck is changing, and it's about time!
There's no bet in the next but I really like the Clive Cox newcomer on looks in the maiden, and go in again at 4-1. When he wins, I'm getting myself right back in it, and then, oh the pain, as my decent each-way bet on Red Derek is done in the final few strides by Pentland Hills. Never mind, this has been a good day, and the Warwick disaster is but a distant memory. Remember, kids - when you're backing winner after winner, you're never as good as you think you are, but when you're backing loser after loser, you're never as bad as you think you are either.
A day's work on the pitch at Chester for their final day of the season follows. It's absolutely mobbed, good money all day, but we (and indeed, quite a few of the books) take a cash hit when the owner backs his Emiyn down the line. Suffice to say when it wins at 16-1, he needs a bag to carry all the readies around in. Fair play to him.
One thing I really wish Chester would sort out is their phone signal, and Wi-Fi. For a track that prides itself on customer experience, it really is very poor. I get a better signal at Fakenham, and, like Yarmouth, that's three and a half hours from anywhere.
Last Thursday, following a 3-hour drive down the M6 (I'd been in Blackpool on the Wednesday night, Morrissey in concert at the Opera House, superb gig) I once again found myself at Warwick. From five paddock picks, four of them won. I suppose that's hardly surprising, given six of the seven favourites won but all the same, it's nice to know your eyesight isn't yet requiring of another trip to Specsavers.
The next couple of weeks are going to be quiet on the work front, as the good lady turns 50 next week and we're off to Cornwall for some fun and frolics with a few friends. We will be taking Champions Day in on the way back though, so I'll let you know how that goes. You might be there, of course, so please say hello if you see us. What then? Ah, Cheltenham, my old friend, it's so good to see you again...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/oncoursebookmakers.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-10-05 08:16:022022-10-05 08:16:02Roving Reports: Slings and Arrows
It was good enough to chat to Sir Mark Prescott and Kirsten Rausing in the sunshine of York before and after Alpinista’s fifth consecutive Group 1 success back in the summer, when she beat the gallant Oaks winner, Tuesday, in the Yorkshire Oaks, writes Tony Stafford. Yesterday I contentedly sat at home watching her battling performance in holding off a series of strong challengers up the last 200 metres to collect the £2.4 million first prize in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The press and media were queueing up again, on an awful Parisian autumn afternoon to catch the now emotional Sir Mark – yes, he does sometimes let that relaxed urbane countenance slip! This tender side, in full view if not quite revealing actual tears, followed the victory of the same grey five-year-old mare, as she equalled a record that had stood from 11 years before the popular Baronet was born.
It was in 1937 that Corrida had been the last of her age and sex to win a race that then was only 17 years into its history. Now the Arc is rightly acknowledged as Europe’s championship race. Sir Mark, a trainer for 52 years, plotted Alpinista’s path to greatness with the same patience that for half a century he has set up maiden three-year-olds to win strings of races as they improve and learn on the job, starting low and frequently ending high.
In her case, Alpinista didn’t start low at all, winning on her first juvenile start at Epsom’s August meeting. That alone should have told us she was different. Quickly up to stakes company, although finishing only sixth in a Goodwood Group 3 and then filling fourth in a Listed race at Longchamp, her first of many overseas sorties, on her final juvenile start.
Sir Mark gave her a reappearance on July 20, 2020, no doubt because Covid had not only interrupted the early part of that season for everyone on the racecourse but inevitably delayed all the time-honoured training regime he had made second nature over the decades.
But having finished fourth in that Listed race, this time at Vichy, she made up for lost time with a victory at the same level at Salisbury before outperforming her 33-1 odds when second to the Oaks winner, Love, in the Yorkshire Oaks.
From then, there has only been one more defeat, next time in the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes behind Antonia De Vega at Newmarket, her final three-year-old start.
Thereafter, Sir Mark has produced a two-season, eight-race unbeaten sequence that could have been modelled on some of his more celebrated handicap coups, except that the last six of the eight have been at Group 1 level.
Last year involved a late summer/autumn German Group 1 hat-trick starting with a defeat of future 2021 Arc winner Torquator Tasso in Hoppegarten, a race of which Prescott modestly said her rival was “unlucky in running”. There was no hard luck story yesterday, though, as Torquator Tasso was brought with a perfect run down the outside by Frankie Dettori, but Luke Morris and his grey co-conspiratress were never contemplating defeat.
Afterwards, Prescott said that Morris had been with him for 12 years, a span that probably leaves him at least as long to go to match George Duffield. There can be few occupations anywhere in this uncertain world with the career security of Heath House’s stable jockey. Or indeed as the quiet assistant trainer William Butler might ruefully opine, “Nor assistant to Sir Mark!”
That self-effacing gentleman at least is not threatened in his post, but it reminds me of an exchange at the Daily Telegraph when a colleague, anxious to know what would happen when his department boss – he was the deputy - was leaving in the coming weeks. The Sports Editor, said, “Don’t worry old boy, your present position is assured!”
It embarrasses me (a little) to say he took the hint and quickly left and, a few short months later, I was appointed Racing Editor since which time it’s all gone downhill!
Alpinista was one of six UK-trained winners on the two-day Longchamp card with three on the opening day, added to by another three yesterday. That tally does not include Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios, who, I must say, put up the best performance I have ever seen from a flat-race stayer.
In the two-and-half mile Prix Du Cadran, the previous winner of the Gold Cup at Ascot, Goodwood Cup and Irish St Leger, a Galileo colt, cantered along for the first two miles of the journey, as first Quickthorn (briefly, but alas with little conviction) and then Lismore set the pace.
By the turn in, the Coolmore runner had taken the lead totally untroubled and started to draw away inexorably. There was still more than a furlong to go when he began to find it all so boring and showed a liking for the fans on the stands rail, so in the manner of the 2014 2000 Guineas winner, Night of Thunder, he thought he would come and say “Bonjour” to the Turfistes that side.
It’s easy to overstate the amount of ground conceded by such a manoeuvre, but it caused Ryan Moore a degree of discomfort for a while. Not to worry, he still had a full 20 lengths to spare passing the post, and probably three or more gears that Ryan hadn’t troubled to utilise.
Having seen off now retired Stradivarius and Trueshan at Goodwood, Aidan and the boys will be aiming at shorter rather than keep to the stayers but, still only four, it will be tempting to call in at Royal Ascot for the next few Gold Cups. Yeats was great; Stradivarius was very good for a long time, but this is a late-in-career phenomenon to add to the Galileo legend.
Having watched Luxembourg struggle in the soft ground yesterday, I wonder if Aidan is already thinking “next year’s Arc” for a Classic winner, albeit the Irish St Leger. He is improving so quickly the problem will be just which demanding prizes they challenge for.
*
It was good to have ITV cover the races up until the Arc and Sky Sports Racing the subsequent events, but when comparing what came up on those screens, with results as published in the Racing Post, there was generally a pattern to discern. Not in every case, but mostly, the punters watching on the box will have expected being paid out on those prices and will probably have been disappointed at what the bookies returned them.
The most blatant example on a day when Andre Fabre, three months my senior whereas Sir Mark is two years less a day younger than me, almost single-handedly kept the home fires burning with two Group 1 victories. His Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Belbek was 16-1 or thereabouts in both versions. Contrastingly, after his Place Du Carroussel finished strongly to deny Nashwa and Hollie Doyle in the Prix de l’Opera, Sky Sports Racing flashed up 66/1, but if you found her, the Post says she was a 41-1 chance.
Hollie got her revenge a little later when Richard Fahey’s The Platinum Queen became the first two-year-old filly to win the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp since the celebrated sprinter Sigy in 1978 after a fine performance by horse and rider. Her 9-4 on the box, was as low as 7-5 with the firms. Alpinista was only a shade shorter in the Post whereas Kinross and Frankie won the Foret at only 11/8. Don’t say the bookies never show mercy – they returned 17-10.
On Saturday, there was nothing to choose between 7-10 (Post) and 4-7 (SSR)about Kyprios while Anmaat’s 23-10 was better than the 15-8 from the broadcaster. There was a big disparity though in the 13-5 about William Haggas’ Sea La Rosa and the telly’s 7-2 in the Royallieu. Then again, with so many well-backed UK-trained winners, they must have been onto something of a hiding.
Now all the big players will come back to the UK, making the annual trek to the sales at Tattersalls in Newmarket to start inspecting the choice Book 1 offerings that will be going through the ring and will be their prime targets as they seek to re-stock.
I doubt Tatts will be worrying about their gas and electricity bills with 5%, the guineas rather than pounds, if you are too young to know, commission on every sale and the prospect of many millions of pounds, euro, dollars, yen and whatever else you care to mention, sure to change hands. It’s worth a watch, Tuesday to Thursday, to see exciting bidding, big-name owners and trainers and, like me, you can keep yourself warm at someone else’s expense. Or else you can watch it at home online, but then you’ll be footing the bill!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Alpinista_Arc_2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-10-03 07:20:502022-10-03 07:20:50Monday Musings: Sir Mark’s Arc
The first Sunday in October is the traditional date for Europe's middle distance Championship race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Run at Longchamp over a mile and a half (2400 metres if you prefer) the race invariably cements the reputation of a champion elect or elevates the status of a hitherto underrated contender.
Consider last year, when Torquator Tasso was considered a shock winner by most measures, including the betting - he returned 72/1 on the French tote - but he had already been first or second in five Group 1 races! That quintet included a G1 score in the Grosser Preis von Baden on his prior start. Since his Arc glory day, TT has run second in both the G1 King George at Ascot and the Grosser Preis von Baden, missing by just a head in the latter.
In 2020, Sottsass, a dual Group 1 winner including when claiming the 2019 French Derby, prevailed on his second Arc attempt; he'd been third the year before having prepped with a win in the G2 Prix Niel: that brace of 2019 contests were his only other races at twelve furlongs.
And so it goes, back through Waldgeist, a triple G1 winner; the brilliant queen, Enable, twice; double G1 winner Found (who was also second in top grade a remarkable nine times before, and once after, her Arc win); Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion victor, Golden Horn; and twice prior to that the magnificent mare, Treve. There are simply no poor winners of the race, though some are bigger prices hiding in plain sight.
Sottsass was 7/1, Waldgeist 13/1, Treve 11/1 in her second Arc, and before her, Solemia was 33/1, and Danedream 20/1. In other words, it's a race that can be played at a price if that's your thing. And fillies have a great record in the Arc, too: between 2011 and 2018, seven of the eight Arcs were won by fillies and, in the three renewals since, fillies have run second in two of them.
Part of this performance by females can be attributed to weight concessions: three-year-old fillies receive four pounds from three-year-old colts and seven pounds from older fillies and mares; and they receive ten pounds from older colts.
With Baaeed now a confirmed non-runner, the market has begun to settle and a deep list of possibles, even without the top rated horse in Europe, is assembling. We'll get to the form in a minute, but first a brief squint at recent history...
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Draw Bias
What about the draw in the Arc, of which much is usually made? Below are the stall positions of the first six home since 2008. Note that in 2016 and 2017, the race was staged at Chantilly while Longchamp was being renovated.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw bias? First six home stall numbers
Eleven horses have made the frame from the inside three stalls in the twelve Longchamp renewals sampled above. That excludes the Chantilly 'combination Ted Rogers' (remember Dusty Bin?!) in 2017. But a horse from the outside three stalls has won three times, too, again excluding Chantilly. So is too much emphasis put on the stalls lottery?
Perhaps not, at least not in terms of Arc winners. As the little table below illustrates, those housed in the lower half of the stalls have won nine of the past dozen Longchamp Arcs: 75% of them. But the minor podium spots have been equally divided on both steps; and with many/most bookies paying four places at least in the days leading up to Arc Sunday, a high draw has been no impediment to finishing on the ticket.
Summing the top four positions into high/low gives a 25-23 verdict in favour of low, though of course the most material difference is in the win row.
I hope it goes without saying that this is a tiny, just about meaningless, sample size so caution is advised for all that trigonometry dictates a horse drawn low will travel less distance and should, with a clear run, therefore have a small edge, all other things being equal (which they never are!)
Arc Winning Nation
Looking at those same 14 renewals of the Arc from a nationality perspective, a few slightly surprising points emerge. The scorecard is as follows:
France 6
UK 4 (3 for John Gosden)
Ireland 2 (1 for Aidan O'Brien)
Germany 2
It was a bit of a shock, to me at least, that Ireland's haul in recent times has been so 'normal' given the volume of high class middle distance horses from that nation. And, particularly, that within those figures, Aidan O'Brien's record is just, well, good rather than excellent. Here is APOB's tale of the tape, and I've included 2007 because it's kind of relevant as you'll see:
2021: Snowfall 19/5 6th
2020: No runner
2019: Japan 9/1 4th, Magical 19/1 5th
2018: Capri 25/1 5th, Kew Gardens 8/1 7th, Nelson 100/1 8th, Magical 40/1 10th, Hunting Horn 40/1 16th
2017: Order of St George 8/1 4th, Idaho 25/1 8th, Winter 9/1 9th, Seventh Heaven 50/1 14th, Capri 20/1 17th
2016: FOUND 6/1 1st, Highland Reel 20/1 2nd, Order of St George 14/1 3rd
2015: Found 18/1 9th, Tapestry 33/1 16th
2014: Ruler of the World 12/1 9th, Tapestry 14/1 13th, Chicquita 40/1 15th
2013: Ruler of the World 7/1 7th, Leading Light 10/1 12th
2012: Camelot 2/1 7th, St Nicholas Abbey 14/1, Ernest Hemingway 150/1 16th, Robin Hood 500/1 18th
2011: So You Think 9/2 4th, St Nicholas Abbey 33/1 5th, Treasure Beach 28/1 14th
2010: Fame And Glory 9/2 5th, Cape Blanco 11/1 13th, Midas Touch 40/1 17th
2009: Fame And Glory 6/1 6th, Grand Ducal 300/1 17th, Cornish 500/1 18th
2008: Soldier of Fortune 9/2 3rd, Duke of Marmalade 4/1 7th, Red Rock Canyon 250/1 16th
2007: DYLAN THOMAS 11/2 1st, Soldier of Fortune 10/3 5th, Yellowstone 150/1 11th, Song of Hiawatha 150/1 12th
In fact, Aidan has won the Arc only twice, in 2007 and in 2016 when he had an incredible clean sweep of the medal placings. Aside from that, he has just one further top three finish since 2007, which was Soldier Of Fortune's third place in 2008. When you look at the quality he has aimed, and the prices at which some were sent off, that's not the strongest pointer to Luxembourg's chance. Nor, naturally, will it prevent Luxembourg from winning if he's good enough: it didn't stop Found or Dylan Thomas after all. But at the prices...
Meanwhile, Germany has 20/1 and 72/1 winners for its brace in the sample period. That, according to my fag packet calculations, from just eleven runners. Of the nine non-winners, It's Gino dead heated for third at 150/1, and all bar two finished in the top nine.
The full German-trained form string since 2007 (oldest to current) reads: 6th / 3rd 11th / 13th / 9th 12th / 1st / 8th / 6th 7th / 1st
That's pretty impressive.
The last non-Gosden trained British winner of the Arc was Workforce, brilliantly conditioned in 2010 by Sir Michael Stoute. Without going into the specifics of it, the likes of Hurricane Lane, Adayar, Stradivarius, Enable (twice), and Ghaiyyath have all been beaten for Team GB in just the last three years alone. A few have rattled the woodwork in the wider sample period - Sea Of Class narrowly failed to beat Enable, and Youmzain was famously second twice - but the overall record does not inspire confidence in the challenge of les rosbifs.
The home team saddles far more runners than any of the raiding squads and it is therefore little surprise that they have the most wins in recent years. There was Solemia at 33/1 (tipped on these pages, astonishingly) but, she aside, the longest priced French scorer since the superdam Urban Sea prevailed at 37/1 in 1993 was 13/1 Waldgeist three years ago. That's probably not out of kilter with what the maths would expect but it does serve as a note of caution for us reckless moulin-tilters!
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winning Age and Gender
Five-year-olds occasionally win the Arc. Waldgeist did in 2019, so too Marienbard in 2002, Tony Bin in 1988 and Star Appeal in 1975; but you'll already have the impression that it's not a regular occurrence. That outlying quartet aside, every winner back to the five-year-old Le Paillon in 1947 was aged three or four. Runners older than five rock up in dribs and drabs most years, and this year may include the good (but not great) Aussie mare, Verry Elleegant, and Broome as well as a couple of Japanese entries. That latter trio if lining up would surely serve pacemaker duties only.
Between 1994 and 2011, three-year-olds won all bar three Arcs; since 2012, they've won only three. Further, two of the three-year-olds to win - Treve and Enable - doubled up at four. Why such a poor record for the three's? Well, given nothing has materially changed about the race conditions, it can only be down to the quality of the Classic cohorts and the rub of the green.
On gender, fillies and mares receive a healthy allowance from the colts. The biggest weight disparity is between a three-year-old filly and older colts, the younger ladies getting ten pounds from the more mature gents. In theory, this is simply to level the playing field, and it is a smarter cruncher than this scribbler who can posit against that theory. But since the German-trained three-year-old filly Danedream bashed up the trendsters, we've witnessed Solemia, then Treve twice, Found, and Enable twice bring it home for the fairer sex. Seven in the last eleven years.
But it runs deeper than that. Tarnawa got closest to Torquator Tasso last year, likewise Enable to Waldgeist in 2019, Sea Of Class was closest to Enable a year before that, and the likes of Taghrooda, Shareta, Sarafina, and Snow Fairy have also made the frame; as well, of course, as the brilliant winner in 2008, Zarkava. Fillies and mares continue to outperform their representation and, to some degree, are still under appreciated by the market.
*
Where does that leave us exactly? For many, it will doubtless leave you cold - or at least tepid - because the pen that inscribes the form book is more powerful than the blunt sword of statistical sophistry wielded hitherto. Or, in slightly plainer English, it's been quackery rules so far.
Still, I'm counselled by my rummage against being too hot on Aidan, or on Team GB, or on a Frenchie at a price; and never to dismiss a German runner out of hand. Moreover, I'll only slightly mark up an inside post and believe that a good horse can win from any post position. I will discount all but the most interesting five-year-old, and all older than that; and I will give a bonus point to any filly in the field. Devil take the hindmost.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Video Form
Some, perhaps most, will disregard historical profiles in favour of which animals have done what on the track and, in fairness, it seems reasonable to at least consider those exertions*. So what follows is a quick whizz through many of the key races. Keep in mind that runners in some recent trials, especially the French trio of Niel, Foy and Vermeilles, may not have been 100% ready that day. For what they're worth, my quick notes are alongside each recording.
*sarcasm alert
Irish Champion Stakes (1m 2f)
Looked very strong 10f form.
Vadeni - a little inconvenienced against the rail - and Mishriff closing on first run getters Lux and Onesto.
Lux by Camelot out of Danehill Dancer mare: offers hope but no guarantees
Onesto by Frankel out of Sea The Stars mare: plenty of stamina there. Already won the G1 GPdP over 12f, beating Simca Mille
Grand Prix de Paris (1m4f)
Onesto last to first, great turn of pace; but steady enough gallop (Eldar Eldarov outpaced)
Simca Mille - needs supplementing - tried to make all, coming back at Onesto (tenderly handled) at the line.
Prix Niel (1m4f)
Race fit Lassaut gave Simca Mille, back from a break, a two length start but couldn't quite bridge it. Winner has bags of 12f form (1121) at the trip.
Japanese Do Deuce might improve for the run but was well beaten
Prix Vermeille (1m4f)
La Parisienne locked up on the rail, splits came late, quickened smartly but not quite getting there.
Prix Foy (1m4f)
Last to first for the smart gelding (who is therefore disqualified from Arc entry), Iresine. Broome and Verry Elleegant were verry (sic) disappointing.
Grosser Preis von Baden (1m4f)
Small field, tactical, Torquator Tasso prominent, took lead but run down by Mendocino in shadow of posts.
Prix du Jockey Club (1m 2.5f)
Vadeni chased leaders from inside draw, quickened impressively. Al Hakeem, Onesto and Lassaut the rear trio, 10L from the lead, all finished well, no chance. Al Hakeem finished best.
Prix de Diane (1m 2.5f)
Nashwa (Prominent throughout, first run in straight) held off La Parisienne (ground saving rail run, got split 1 1/2f out, finished well but slightly too late)
Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f)
Alpinista (unbeaten in last 7, all 1m4f, last 5 at G1 level, including vs males) tracked leaders, smooth run to lead 2 out, ran on well. Tuesday held in second.
Takarazuka Kinen (1m4f)
Titleholder always front rank behind pacemaker, kicked first, won by daylight. Had previously won over 2m.
Arc Market Overview with Form Comments
To the right is a snapshot of some of the major betting lists courtesy of our mutual friends at oddschecker.
Luxembourg is the tenuous favourite, available at 9/2 in a place, and they then bet 7/1 the field. Clearly, the implication is this is still a very tough wagering puzzle!
Horses I'm for and against - and those I've backed (braced for impending arrest by the aftertime police), and why, are thus:
Luxembourg has bounced back from early season setback, comes here relatively fresh and has a chance of staying on pedigree. Would back him at a bigger price (had a small saver at 6's)
Alpinista has rock solid credentials in terms of trip, grade and consistency. Mare has beaten many of these, including Torquator Tasso prior to his 2021 Arc score and an obvious contender despite being a five-year-old. (Had tiny e/w saver at 15/2)
Torquator Tasso won last year on heavy but has strong form on sounder surfaces. Second the last twice in G1 company, running to similar level as prior to last year's Arc
Titleholder is the first Japanese runner in the list. Has won from 1m3f up to two miles. I cannot peg this form but winning - twice - at or around two miles suggests he might be too slow for this. [And I might be completely wrong about that]
Adayar won the Derby and King George last year before a good fourth in the Arc. Sole run in 2022 was an ungraded conditions event last week so has a bit to prove in spite of the ease with which he did it there (as the 2/7 favourite). Very well backed today - see line of blue in image
Onesto is a three-year-old colt with strong form. Winner of the 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris and second in the Irish Champion, he may not want it soft. Has a fine turn of gear, but will be "ridden for luck" from the back most likely
Vadeni is an uncertain runner and not a guaranteed stayer (by Churchill, though out of a Monsun mare) who has yet to race beyond ten and a half furlongs; took a while to get going in Irish Champion then tightened on the rail before finishing best. Prix du Jockey Club and Eclipse winner, good chance if he runs and stays
Westover has too much to prove after his King George blowout. Won a typically weak Irish Derby and was third in a pretty weak Derby. Not for me
La Parisienne is unlucky not to have won the French Oaks (Prix de Diane) and Prix Vermeille, both Group 1's, Gerald Mosse giving her a soupçon too much to do on each occasion. Looks like she stays and is a 3yo filly getting all the allowances. Backed her e/w at 33/1. 20/1 still reasonable, I think
Do Deuce represents the land of the rising sun and can be expected to step forward from his Prix Niel effort. Probably didn't enjoy the slow ground there and, if it comes up good, he'll be more interesting than the Niel trial suggests
Al Hakeem is another I took a small piece of at 33's, win only. Sole '22 defeat was when given (way) too much to do in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he recorded the best closing sectionals. Has won again since and is trained by 2020 winning trainer Jean-Claude Rouget (Sottsass)
Lassaut is also trained by Rouget and ran the classic French prep when accelerating from far back to not quite get up in the Prix Niel (sent off favourite). This is his trip and he's a dark horse for all that he has plenty to find on the book at this stage. Had small e/w at 33/1, currently readily available at 40's!
Simca Mille needs supplementing and there must be a good chance of that as he's won four from five this year, including the Niel. Was second to Onesto (tried to make all) in the Grand Prix de Paris, so his face fits for all that he may be swamped in the final furlong. Backed tiny e/w at 40's
Mendocino brings the Grosser Preis von Baden form to the table, seeing off Torquator Tasso there (ridden by TT's Arc-winning jockey, Rene Piechulek). Looks an Autumn horse and, as a German-bred and -trained four-year-old, likely to finish in the first half of the field
*I also had a cheeky go at 33/1 Baaeed prior to the Juddmonte. It looked interesting for a while... sigh
As you can see I've chanced a couple of quid in a few directions, and cannot yet discount a further wager, perhaps on Vadeni or Do Deuce when ground and entries are better known.
*
There remain a lot of horses with strong credentials and, whilst I respect Luxembourg and particularly Alpinista, there is value against the head of the market. I'm not hugely sold on any of TT, Titleholder or Adayar - which is not to say they won't fill out the first three places, natch - and I'm completely against Westover.
Vadeni would be very interesting on top of the ground if he's allowed to run; and Do Deuce also very likely has more merit than his prep blowout. But I think 20/1 La Parisienne and 33/1 Al Hakeem are two that could shorten (or shorten further in the case of the filly) and as such might be a sliver of value.
Good luck, it promises to be a fascinating Arc even in the absence of Baaeed.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/TorquatorTasso_Arc2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-09-28 11:27:042022-09-30 18:41:012022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview, Tips
Autumn was already setting in on the second Sunday of October last year when the Curragh staged the Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch, a long-established two-mile handicap, writes Tony Stafford. The race was billed as a Premier Handicap, and it attracted the customary full field of 30, with reserves on the day not getting a run.
The race was won by Line Out, a 79-rated home-bred nine-year-old of the Lillingston Family’s. The victory would have been greeted with many a fond memory of the late Alan, the family fountainhead, whose son Luke and daughter Georgina (formerly Bell) are still very much to be seen around the racecourses and major sales in Ireland and the UK.
Worth £47,200, or its Euro equivalent to the winner last year, it was staged as usual the day after its big Newmarket brother. That race has had multiple name changes over the years, a process that has accelerated more in recent times, just as the prize money on offer has also fluctuated. On that point UK trainers might be entitled to say “alarmingly”, but none of them in any case has found it easy to deprive the Willie Mullins jumpers of their annual winner’s prize when he lines up his squadron of class jumpers every October.
Nicky Henderson managed it last year when the one-time Hughie Morrison grey eight-year-old gelding Buzz with Oisin Murphy (remember him?) galloped past Mullins’ mare Burning Victory, the rest toiling. Mullins had won the three previous editions while Roger Charlton and Morrison had scooped the prize in the two years before that.
I digress. With 30 in last year’s Curragh field, in a race oft considered an afterthought for unsuccessful cross-Irish Sea challengers, or a second division for those that didn’t get in the HQ contest, the truth was probably somewhere in between. True, the relative prize was a clue, but so were the ratings.
Only two of 30 to take part in the Irish Cesarewitch last year were rated 100 or higher. In the Newmarket line-up of 32 the previous day, nine were rated 100 or above.
I promised a look at the recent administrative history of the race, so here goes. In 2017, the last year of a long period of various bookmaking alliances with the race, Betfred carried the banner, and the race was worth £155k to the winning horse. He was Withhold, trained by Roger Charlton for Tony Bloom, chairman of Brighton FC.
The following year, amid the heady atmosphere of the BHA promise of vastly increased support for top staying handicaps, a £1 million Ebor was mooted, though never actually realised. In that context we still had the Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch in 2018 and the almost unimaginable £307,250 to the Mullins winner Low Sun, was gratefully received by all concerned.
In 2019, though not quite in the half-million bracket, the Emirates Cesarewitch still carried a £217,000 prize for another Willie Mullins hurdler of repute, the classy Stratum landing another nice touch in the race for Bloom, this time at 25-1.
Then came Covid and two major drops in funding as Together For Racing International lent their apparently worthy, if a shade unwieldy, title to the name of the second half of the Autumn Double, as those old-timers still regard it. I’ll tell you in a minute why I should still have been in there with a chance bar Saturday’s bad luck!
But back to money. In the circumstances, to pull up a first prize of £124k to reward the 2020 heroine, Mullins’ Great White Shark, was to be applauded following Covid’s savage interference with the first half of that racing season. To manage only four grand more for last year was less meritorious.
When what remains of only 53 entries in the race on Saturday week turns up on Newmarket Heath, there could be a rare instance of the great race not filling. Newmarket takes a maximum field of 32 – but if they did away with stalls for that one race the track could accommodate the entire 53 comfortably. It was a shock, though, that the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch, by which name it now exists, is worth only £103,000 to this year’s winner, barely a third of what was available just four years ago. It does not seem anywhere near good enough.
Hopefully the much publicised, and subsequently de-anonymised in terms of participants, two days of urgent talks between key industry people in London last week trying to solve racing’s ills will eventually bring some optimism to the sport. I can’t wait for developments. Maybe Matt Chapman can organise a Masked Delegate competition for next weekend’s televising.
Now though I return to the Irish Cesarewitch, because a seismic shift has occurred where that two-mile Premier handicap of 30 runners on the Curragh is concerned. In 2022 it is all of those things, but rather than wait until after its Newmarket senior member has been contested, the now Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch took place yesterday with a new €500,000 total fund and with €324,000 to the winner – making it seven times more valuable than in 2021.
Last year, Mullins and Joseph O’Brien each managed to dredge up five candidates from their middle-ranking handicappers for the race and Aidan also sent a couple of his own. Yesterday’s race, however, was a beast of a totally different colour. To understand the transformation in quality, where there were two last year rated 100 or more, yesterday there were 16.
Having experienced the uncertainty many times that goes with waiting to find out if your horse gets in a race, I can imagine the conflicting emotions in the Racing Office at Ballydoyle as the declarations cut-off time approached. In the event, Aidan’s gamble to wait for the race with his three-year-old colt Waterville paid the ultimate dividend.
Waterville had won only once in five starts but, significantly, that was on the one occasion he tried two miles, in a handicap off 84 at Limerick in June. He had only one more run, finishing second in a 1m5f conditions race the following month. Since then, the gamble – of Truss/Kwarteng proportions – was whether the new mark of 99 was enough. When those declarations landed, he was last of 30 to get in the race. You guessed, yesterday he overcame his inexperience, as the 5-1 favourite under Wayne Lordan, to pick up the first prize in a tight finish.
Interestingly, for once the two Cesarewitch races are spaced conveniently. Aidan also entered Waterville, a son of Camelot out of a mare by stamina influence Hernando, in the newly-styled Club Godolphin Cesarewitch. I expect he will now send the now market leader to try to defy his penalty.
The identity of the trainers of the first 15 horses home yesterday was a lexicon of that country’s star handlers, apart from Jim Bolger, who has hardly bothered training stayers for many years.
In finishing order, it was Aidan O’Brien, Willie Mullins x 2, Joseph O’Brien, Dermot Weld, Joseph O’B again, Jessica Harrington, Joseph with the next four, then the sole interloper although a man from a great Irish racing family in the person of Richard Hughes, before a final one more each for Aidan and Joseph and then Ger Lyons. That merely covers the first half. The profile of many of the beaten horses fits them for either Newmarket or the Champion Stayers race at Ascot the following weekend.
I hinted at a frustrating Cambridgeshire. In all the years I tipped for the paper it was one of my most successful races and I loved to stand at the top of the old grandstand and peer down with the binoculars as they approached the last six furlongs while swelling from blobs to finite form.
Watching Dual Identity there yesterday, for much of that now screen-aided nine furlongs, was simply a blueprint for an imminent Cambridgeshire win, so easily was he going. In the Kennett Valley Thoroughbreds colours carried with distinction by Dual Identity’s older teammate Sir Busker in the William Knight stable, it seemed just a case of queueing up to collect as he bossed the much smaller far-side group.
Andrea Atzeni pulled him out quite a long way from home, and with no feasible competition nearby, had no option but to kick him on inside the last two furlongs as he sensed the stands group had the advantage.
While Dual Identity, after striking the front moved inexorably further and further clear of his toiling main rival, the solid block of stands runners was gradually generating the power of the pack. Just as victory looked assured, in the last 50 yards the last few strides brought first one, 25-1 shot Majestic, then on the line a second, Bell Rock, both with 5lb claimers, to head Dual Identity, even though he gave no sign of faltering.
The fascinating point, as ever, will be in the handicapping of the race. Will the BHA handicappers treat it as a single entity, raising the winner a little more than the second and third (by a nose)? Or, rather, will he regard this as two races and have sliding-scale assessments of merit according to relative position on the course?
If the normal standards are to be followed, Dual Identity could represent a handicap certainty next time out. Then again, I thought he was before Saturday having watched the film of Sandown. I told Ed Chamberlin after the race I thought Dual Identity was one of the unluckiest losers of a big handicap I can remember. Of course, that was to forget all those races when half the field on certain days at Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket, Newbury or indeed Ayr and Doncaster need not have bothered turning up so unequal were ground conditions on either side of those courses!
I’ll be off on Saturday to Ascot to test whether Dusky Lord should have been better rewarded in terms of numbers by the various bodies assessing his brilliant win at Ayr two weeks prior. Roger Varian has him lined up for the Group 3 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes over six furlongs. If he wins that, Jonathan and the rest of the Dusky Lord partnership will be in clover!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Waterville_IrishCesarewitch2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-09-26 08:40:272022-09-26 09:27:54Monday Musings: If you build it…
That little 'go faster' stripe icon - which might have a colour change in coming days to make it 'pop' a touch more - indicates that a horse has finished quickly in one of its recent races. That, in turn, means it might be worth a second glance today. Specifically, it's highlighting a horse that appears on the Fast Finishers report for any of its most recent three runs. And, to be absolutely clear how horses appear on that report, the Fast Finishers (FF) report displays a list of those horses who finishedmore than 2.5% quicker than the race finishing time in the closing (C) section.
You do NOT need to know this - you only need to know that if they have the indicator they are capable of rattling home late under the right circumstances!
IMPORTANT NOTE: you need to opt in to viewing sectional data, which you can do in the 'Racecard Options' section of your My Geegeez page 👇
Without turning this into a sectional timing sermon, horses that close well have often performed better than their finishing position suggests, and can be value bets in upcoming races, assuming a similar race setup. Let's consider the case of Ayr Gold Cup winner and recent 'fast finisher', Summerghand. This is his form string (ignore the top line, which is the Ayr Gold Cup win).
Clicking the 'Show Sectionals' radio button top left presents a different perspective, with a number of things to pick out:
In the above visual, I've 'hovered' over the running line (the bit with 14 14 14 12 4) to reveal the race detail - jockey, position/field size, distance beaten, winner, odds, weight, headgear and, importantly, the in-running comment. "did well in the circumstances, 1st of 4 in group".
To the right of the running line is a little orange 'go faster stripe'. This means that not only was Summerghand a fast finisher, he was the fastest finisher in the race. As can be seen clearly from the first of the two form images above, he righted the injustice of Ripon's fast finish with a big field handicap win at York next time out. After that he was never nearer in a small field Listed race at Newmarket that wouldn't have played to his ability to finish in a truly run race, before doing just that to get the lot in the AGC.
It is important to note with all sectional data that, as is perfectly highlighted above, there are gaps in our knowledge. The gaps are due to the continued lack of availability of Course Track (Racing TV tracks) data. This is a source of ongoing deep frustration but it doesn't stop the subset we publish - for those tracks covered by Total Performance Data - shining a light on runners with the ability to 'do business' at the end of a race.
As we move to a time of year when all-weather racing will take place most days, TPD's sectional coverage at Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton will provide us with many opportunities to back fast finishers when it looks like they'll get a similar race pace to aim at. For more on sectional timing, check out these posts.
Enjoy!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/summerghandagc.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-09-20 10:33:562022-09-21 08:45:59New: Fast Finisher indicators
This series on all-weather tracks continues with the second of two articles looking at the Irish course of Dundalk. The first looked at run style and the draw, and can be viewed here; this piece delves into a variety of other areas in relation to the sole Irish all-weather loop.
The track was resurfaced in April 2020 and reopened in July 2020, so for this article the focus will be on the races run after the renovation work, from 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022. I will occasionally compare the new data with some past data to try and gauge whether there are any significant differences compared to the results from the old surface. That past data will be covering a similar period in terms of elapsed time and volume of races – 1st January 2018 to March 31st 2020.
I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have noted many times before, we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either early prices and best odds guaranteed (BOG) or the exchanges.
Dundalk Trainers
The first port of call in this part two is to analyse the most recent trainer performance (12/7/20 to 31/8/22). One shy of thirty trainers have saddled 75 or more runners in races at Dundalk over the past two and a little bit years and so I have included them all.
Dundalk Trainers: Record of those saddling 75+ runners since the new track was laid (up to 31st August 2022)
It is perhaps no surprise to see just six trainers in profit; in terms of A/E index, seven trainers are above the magic 1.00 figure. It may be helpful to compare this most recent data with that from the pre-renovation sample period to see if any major changes have occurred. Below are all the trainers that had at least 75 runners in both time frames and I have compared their win strike rate percentages. The green column are the most recent:
Trainer comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation
In terms of these win percentages the figures for each trainer generally correlate; it seems that Johnny Murtagh and Richard O’Brien have seen the biggest downturn in results. However, in reality, the sample size is still quite small in trainer terms, so we should be careful not to read too much into it, well not just yet anyway.
One trainer who did make the list due to not quite having enough runners is the Ballydoyle maestro, Aidan O’Brien. However his recent figures since the resurfacing work are worth sharing: 17 wins from 59 runners (SR 28.8%) for a profit of £32.86 (ROI +55.7%). His A/E index stands at a solid 1.06, too. He had a similar overall strike rate prior to this at 27.1% (1/1/18 to 31/3/20), although he made a small loss during that period.
Going back to the original table, Ger Lyons is the only trainer to secure a strike rate in excess of 20%, and he has a couple of worthwhile stats to mention:
In handicap races, Lyons' record reads 13 from 62 (SR 21%) showing a profit of £24.30 (ROI +39.2%).
Horses that wear NO headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheek pieces etc) have provided 24 wins from 97 runners (SR 24.7%) for a profit of £16.65 (ROI +17.2%).
Before moving away from Lyons it is worth sharing his run style data in terms of win %:
Ger Lyons runners by run style: Dundalk Racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022
As can be seen, Lyons horses taking the lead early have fared exceptionally well, securing 11 wins from the 23 runners that adopted that position. It is also worth noting that a further eight of these were placed, meaning 19 of 23 either won or were placed. The racing performance of Lyons' prominent racers has also been excellent, scoring once in every four runs on average. His record with hold up horses / mid pack runners is less good, however, both registering at under 10%.
Another trainer worth noting is Michael Halford. He has shown a small blind profit overall and his best time of the year seems to be October to December where he has secured a strike rate of 18% (23 wins from 128 runners) and returned a profit of £54.72 (ROI 42.7%). Halford's handicap runners have provided his most profitable results with a return of 33p in the £ across all such runners. It does look best to avoid his older runners, though: those aged six-plus have triumphed just once in 32 attempts.
Dundalk Racecourse Jockeys
It's time now to look at the record of jockeys riding Dundalk over the past two years or so. The minimum number of rides to qualify is again 75, and here are the top ten in terms of win strike rate:
Dundalk Jockeys: Record of those riding 75+ times since the track was renovated (up to 31st August 2022)
The percentages even for the most successful course jockeys are relatively modest, but Dundalk often has big fields which is naturally going to affect the figures. Indeed the non-handicap average field size is 11.4 runners per race and the handicap average field size is 12.6. Over 53% of all races in this period saw a maximum field size of 14 runners.
Let's again compare this most recent data with that from 1/1/18 to 31/3/20 to see if there are any marked differences in jockey success. Here I am listing all jockeys that had 75 or more rides in both the time frames (most recent data again is in green):
Jockey comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation
With modest sample sizes you would expect the odd significant fluctuation due to luck or statistical variance, but in general nothing stands out too much. Conor Hoban is a jockey who seems to have enjoyed the new surface with a fairly decent uptick in his win strike rate. He is the only jockey in fact to have had A/E indices of over 1.00 during both timeframes. The stats suggest to me that he rides this course as well as anyone. Hoban has a very good record with horses nearer the top end of the market: since the re-opening, Hoban's record on horses priced 8/1 or shorter is 11 wins from 37 (SR 29.7%) for a profit of £20.41 (ROI +55.2%). For the record, in the similar timeframe prior to the renovation his mounts made a profit in this same odds group. I do feel Hoban is a jockey that would be a good one to have on side at Dundalk.
Gender bias at Dundalk?
I have noted before that there has always been a small but significant gender bias when it comes to flat racing, with male horses outperforming female ones. On the all-weather this bias tends to be a bit stronger and the recent Dundalk stats (12/7/20 to 31/8/22) are an example of this:
Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022
As can be seen, males have a better strike rate by around 2.5%; better returns (6½p in the £) and higher Actual/Expected and Impact Value indices. They may look relatively modest differences but should still be factored into your betting in my view.
The figures for male and female runners from before the resurfacing (1/1/18 to 31/3/20) are very similar:
Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 1st January 2018 to 31st March 2020
We can see similar differences in strike rates and returns; likewise, the figures for A/E indices and IVs are virtually the same.
When I looked at Chelmsford data previously, there seemed to be a strengthening in the gender bias in the 2yo to 4yo age groups and a levelling off in horses aged 5 and above. This pattern is not really repeated here although 4yo females have really struggled winning just 5.4% of the time (A/E 0.65; IV 0.71).
Dundalk Racecourse: Market factors
With Dundalk generally enjoying big fields the overall market data was interesting to dig into. I mentioned earlier that 53% of all races have a maximum field size of 14; furthermore, over 80% of all races have been contested by 12 or more runners.
Firstly let's take a look at the win strike rates for different ranks in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to betting position of 9th or more:
Dundalk performance by market rank, 12/7/20 to 31/8/22
In general we see a sliding scale although the sixth and fifth in the market are out of synch: this is almost certainly one of those rare statistical anomalies. The win percentage for favourites is relatively low with the average field size the driving factor behind that.
A look at the A/E indices now:
Actual vs Expected by market rank: Dundalk racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022
The sixth market rank figure of 1.00 is a statistical anomaly as mentioned above. Ignoring that, the most interesting number for me is the 0.82 one for those 9th or lower in the betting lists. This group of runners (roughly 3000 of them) have actually broken even to Betfair SP. It is also worth noting that second favourites have broken even to Betfair SP.
A quick look now at combining trainers with market rank – I have looked at trainer performance with horses from the top three in the betting (minimum 50 qualifiers). Here are my findings:
Trainer performance when saddling one of the top three in the betting, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022
To offer some context, all trainers have combined to produce a win strike rate of 20.2%, an ROI of -14% and an A/E index of 0.86. In that light, Jessica Harrington and James McAuley have performed significantly below the norm which is worth noting, while Eddie Lynam and Ado McGuinness are the top performers.
Finally in this section on the betting market I want to look at handicap races with 12 or more runners, and consider the market splits. There have been 371 such races which gives us a large swathe of market data to examine. I have split the market into three as I do with draw data to investigate the percentage of winners within each ‘third’ of the market. Hence in a 12 runner race the market position splits would be as follows:
Low 1/3 – top 4 in the betting
Mid 1/3 – 5th to 8th in the betting
High 1/3 – 9th to 12th in the betting
I have made some statistical adjustments to render these figures as accurate as I can, but there are occasions when ‘joint’ market positions exist; and, further, 13 and 14 runner races do not quite divide perfectly by three. However, I am confident these percentage splits are as near to ‘spot on’ as is possible:
Approximately two-thirds of 12+ runner handicaps are won by the most fancied third of the runners. As punters we are always looking for value, but we must operate within the generally extremely efficient confines of the market.
Sires at Dundalk
Let us know turn our attention to the performance of winners at Dundalk based on their sire. Below is a table of all sires to have had at least 100 runners at the track in the sample period (ordered by strike rate):
Sire performance at Dundalk, 1/7/20 to 31/8/22 [100+ runners to qualify]
I think we need to wait another year, perhaps two, before we make any sweeping conclusions about the performance of individual sires on this new surface. Horses that race regularly here will skew the sire stats a little especially when the sample size is around the 100 to 130 mark. Once we get more sires with 200+ runs it will be a good time to re-examine the data in more detail. For example, the Canford Cliffs figures look vastly inflated to me when I compare his progeny record at Dundalk with long term performance across similar surfaces in the UK and Ireland. Likewise, Holy Roman Emperor is not a sire that tends to produce a win strike rate of just 1.67% - what we know of his record more generally is that he is nearer the 10% mark.
As a researcher and indeed a punter one needs to be aware that statistical analysis can have some limitations. In racing, sample size is often one such limitation, and appreciating where and when this is a potential limitation will help us in our quest to make a long term profit from horse racing. Gathering stats is one thing; understanding their relevance/importance is even more key.
Horses for courses at Dundalk
In closing, I'd like to look at some horses that have excelled at Dundalk since the resurfacing work. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races and possess a strike rate of 25% or more at the track. Further, they must have raced at least once in Ireland or the UK in 2022. These are the horses to qualify. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):
Course specialists at Dundalk racecourse, 1st July 2020 to 31st August 2022
Most of these runners deserve close scrutiny whenever they run at Dundalk, if past performance counts for anything. The five runners with PRB figures of 0.80 or higher are particularly noteworthy.
Whatharm has had a relatively poor time of it on the turf this year so his handicap mark has dropped. It will be interesting to see if a return to Dundalk will spark a return to form.
Dundalk is a track that will have plenty of racing this Autumn and Winter. From now until 16th December they will be racing every Friday, and for eight consecutive weeks from the start of November up to Christmas they will be racing on Wednesdays, too. Hopefully this article and its predecessor, part one, will help us all to be (more) profitable at Dundalk and potentially give us some pennies to spend over the festive period: it's not that far away now!
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AndySlattery_BlinkerKing.jpg317830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-09-19 16:27:522022-11-10 11:56:32All-Weather Analysis: Dundalk Racecourse, Part 2
It is a little known fact that, wherever you are in the British Isles, you are exactly three and a half hours away from Great Yarmouth, writes David Massey. It matters not whether you live in St Neots, Norwich or, in my case, Nottingham, it will take you 210 minutes to arrive on Yarmouth's golden seafront. Fact.
Yarmouth's Eastern Festival, which takes place mid-September each year, is something of a bookmakers' jolly. There's something for everyone - low grade handicaps, maidens where you'll find a good chunk of 3yo handicap winners for next year and, occasionally, you might well see a Group horse in the making: we may have seen one of those this year. More on that later.
I always travel on the Monday before racing on the Tuesday. This is inevitably a good decision as it means I can meander down early afternoon, miss the worst of the traffic, and relax Monday evening. I set off at half one and arrived at my B&B (Sandcastles, I use them every year, highly recommended) at exactly five. See, told you.
As you might remember from last time, I've agreed to work the Tuesday this time as Rob, aka S&D Bookmakers, is short of a worker on the day. Rob, who has a bungalow in the area, is also travelling down on the Monday and we're meeting for a carvery at half six. What neither of us realised is there's a pub quiz on. It's been ages since I took part in one, but I do like a quiz. (I was virtually a pub quiz semi-professional in my late teens and early twenties, either compiling or taking part three or four times a week. I have an excellent story about how that all started, but that's for another day.)
We stay for the quiz, and despite the massive disadvantage we have of just being a two against teams of five, we aren't here to win, just have a bit of fun. After a moderate opening round on questions about our recently passed-on monarch, round 2 is about Marvel Films.
I look at Rob hopefully here, as he's a massive sci-fi nut and I know he likes the Marvel stuff. Expecting a full house, I take a back seat and let Rob drive.
It is at this point I discover another disadvantage; Rob has a memory like a sieve. Every question goes like this.
"I must have seen this film [that the question relates to] ten times."
"Great, what's the answer then?"
"I've no idea."
We score one out of ten. We will eventually finish joint-ninth out of twelve teams on the evening, a round on sport helping us haul ourselves off the bottom. Still, it was fun...
Day one at Yarmouth. Towcester used to be the place where east met west, north met south, but since its sad demise (I still hope against hope it will return one day) Yarmouth has taken on that mantle. There are plenty of familiar East Midlands faces around, and a good mix of books from various compass points. Rob has stuck me on the grass, right at the back; a good pick, as there are plenty sat down around me.
It would be fair to say Yarmouth's crowd is not a young one. Many are there for an end-of-season holiday themselves and given the place is still somewhat camped in the 1980s, the crowd follows suit. We're not going to take any big bets, and there's no danger of us running out of pound coins either. Indeed, one woman has two £2.50 ew bets every race, and pays with five £2 coins each time. She explains she saves them up all year and then uses them as her betting kitty over the three days. Those are the sort of punters you are dealing with here.
There are a couple of well-known bigger punters around the ring, in fairness, but they have their favourites to bet with and I don't expect to see them come my way.
The maiden on the card produces some lively betting. Plenty want to be with the favourite, Proverb, but the paddock judges are telling me that Zoology is the nicest horse in the parade ring. However, he's doing a lot wrong too, shouting and is very green, so he may be one for another day.
They're wrong. Zoology goes down to post well, and isn't the slightest bit green in the race, leading early and powering away from what looked a decent field to win a ready four lengths. It's easy to get carried away with these first-time performances but it's clear from post-race interviews connections feel they have something very special.
Dance Havana at 40-1 is a good result, although that is the third winner on the card for one old dear who is having a quid each-way each race. Her husband, also having similar bets with less success, is not happy. "I'm giving you my money and you're just giving it back to her!" he exclaims. She backs winner Cumulonimbus in the next, too.
From nowhere, one of the big punters rocks up, and asks what I'll take on the next favourite. I'm happy to lay him a monkey - as we've got four pitches on the track, there's every chance he will try and get more on with another one - but it duly wins, and it makes a dent in the float. Still a winning day, though.
Wednesday, and I'm free, to do what I want, any old time. I was keen on Hot Chesnut running a big race in the first but the drying ground has put me off somewhat. However, after seeing how fit she is pre-race, I can't resist, and go in anyway. Others think the same, as she's going off a lot shorter than was predicted. With good reason too, it turns out, as she flies home and is only narrowly beaten. I've won enough for an ice-cream, with a Flake.
Next up, I see one of the biggest 2yos I've ever seen in my life in the shape of Blindedbythelights, trained by Sir Mark Prescott. It is unsurprising he doesn't have the pace for 7f on debut but the way the penny drops late on suggests 10f nurseries at the back end of the season might be the plan. Don't say I didn't tell you!
The listed John Musker is the highlight of the three days, often attracting good horses. I remember Sir Andrew Lloyd-Webber turning up by helicopter to watch So Mi Dar win back in 2016. I don't think he had an ice-cream, though. His loss. This year, Shaara wins for the Gosdens again - she's not in front before the line, and she's not in front after it, but she has her head down at the right time which is good news for me, as I had a few quid on.
Sadly, the rest of the card falls away, with few runners for the final three races (one is a match) but no matter because it's now time for the greyhounds.
Another highlight of this holiday is a trip to the dogs to watch the East Anglian Derby on the Wednesday night, but recent events mean that we are watching the semi-finals tonight instead. There are six other opens on the card, too, so it's a quality night regardless. We've booked a party of twelve in the restaurant earlier in the year (seats soon sell out) and the food we are served is excellent, it must be said. After the meal, we all go down to watch the semi-finals and are delighted when the six, Carole's Legacy, wins the second of them, as we are all on to a man and woman. The oi oiiii's go up late, as she's not in front until the final few strides, but she's paid for the night. Rob, generous as ever, picks up the drinks tab for the evening before we all go our separate ways.
I've time to kill Thursday morning so go for a stroll down the seafront after breakfast. It is noticeable the arcades and seafront shops open later than has been the norm when I've been here before. Saving on the leccy, maybe? That theory is backed up by the fact a few of the arcades don't have their frontage lighting on when they do get going for the day. Seems the cost of living crisis is biting everywhere, even when you've got the odds stacked very much in your favour.
Alongside the racing, the crown green Festival Of Bowls tournaments have been on all week, and after picking a 'paper and a coffee up, I plonk myself down on a seat to watch for a while. It's a very relaxing backdrop, but it isn't helping me find any winners today. I've already made the decision I'll only stop for the first four races, as I want to take the maidens in, and I'd like to get home for a reasonable hour.
The biggest crowd of the week turn up for Ladies Day. Remarkably, I'm in need of the sun cream, as the rays are strong when big yellow does appear. Bigger crowds do not always mean better, though, and the books are complaining business is not strong. To be fair, some would still find complaint if they were taking ten grand a race, but it is clear from the lack of queues that there's some merit in what they say.
The few bets I have on the day go west in the main and, when the 80-1 shot Premiere Beauty wins, you know it's time to go home. Martyn Of Leicester has won a chunk on the race and is giving it plenty as I walk out the track - I suspect the next three winning jollies might have quietened him somewhat - and set off back for Nottingham. I have the best result of the week on the way back, filling the car for £1.51 a litre near Sleaford. This must be what winning the lottery feels like. Home for half seven, it's been a great week.
Jumps season is just around the corner now, boys and girls...
Some weeks, I worry right until the moment when I finally open the keyboard, wondering what to put into these rambling epistles, writes Tony Stafford. Often, it’s a lottery, with random episodes of equal, often minimal, importance to weigh. Other times, like this weekend, I’m spoilt for choice.
Monday Musings is not an organ of record, unlike my long-term employer, the Daily Telegraph, its great rival the Times, or another of my early parking places, the Press Association. Even before then, on a local paper it was instilled in me to chisel out the “who, what, when, where, why, how and to whom” coda for story compiling half a dozen years before the start of my DT days half a century ago.
Among the formula’s most exacting adherents of PA vintage was David Thomas, son of the Sporting Life’s celebrated Chief Racing Reporter, Len, who had been for decades and still was a doyen of the 'paper. If his issue was a doyen of anything, it was repetition, as upon confronting a winning trainer after a race, he would ask, bright bowtie to the fore, “how many do you have in this year?”, “where does the owner come from?” and, more acceptably, “where will he go next?”
In fairness, the domicile of the owner was important, too, as local papers needed those lines from the exciting world of horse racing and sport to flesh out their parochial coverage of robberies, brawls outside public houses and the misdemeanours of local politicians. How I loved Police Calls at Leyton nick in metropolitan Essex in my first newspaper job on the Walthamstow Guardian! Up to a point! I presented “Tommy” with a 1972 copy of Horses In Training one day and dared him to ask another trainer his worn-out trilogy. He defied me, but not until the next day!
There are more than enough “proper” stories elsewhere in this comprehensive, authoritative electronic publication to keep everyone on point, and to allow me an old man’s self-indulgence. In reverse order, in best Miss World mode – if we’re still locked in the 1970’s – the heroes are Hughie Morrison, Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian.
Hughie has been around the longest of the three and equally I’ve known him the longest too. A shade chippier than the others, he finds plenty not to admire about the administration of the sport, and trains at his own pace. He takes any injury the horses sustain as if it were to himself and opportunities for his horses are minutely sought out. On Saturday, his scouring of the Pattern programmes led to two of his progressive fillies collecting Group 3 races, at home at Newbury and in France at Chantilly. The latter foray Hughie declared necessary as he reckoned there was such limited domestic opportunity for the cross-Channel traveller. “Just one other suitable race before Christmas,” he said.
She was Mrs Fitzherbert, a Kingman filly owned by Sonya and Anthony Rogers. Her emphatic success at Chantilly earned €40k for the win and a decent multiple of that in inherent paddock value for her legendary owner-breeders.
The Arbibs, father and son, were the happy beneficiaries of the earlier winner, Stay Alert, as her jockey David Egan needed to, for she was apparently securely trapped on the rail inside the last furlong. But after belatedly worming a small gap, his mount got him out of trouble with instant acceleration to be ahead and back hard held before the line.
Before this challenge against the boys, which brought not just a similar prize but also the promise of much more to come, Stay Alert had been in line for the big fillies’ race on Champions Day next month, and the way she accelerated will make her a threat to even the top fillies at Ascot. “Had she not,” Hughie reminded me beforehand, “given Nashwa a real battle at Newbury earlier in the summer?”
Egan, with confidence emanating from last weekend’s St Leger win on Eldar Eldarov, rather than shrink after the sacking following Mishriff’s too-late finish into second behind Vadeni in the Eclipse, was riding the second of four consecutive winners on the day, more of which later.
I wouldn’t say replacing him has been a conspicuous success – the Eclipse was by far Mishriff’s best run of an unproductive year! The many millions he won for owner and trainer back in Saudi Arabia early last year obviously counted for nought in the face of that one slight misjudgement on a track where any jockey – the best down - can get into trouble even in a three-horse race.
Egan had his day in the sun while William Buick was off travelling to North America for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. The champion-elect had two mounts at Woodbine in Canada, while as Buick can only sit on one horse and be in one place at a time, former Godolphin habitué, a certain L Dettori, had the gig at Belmont at the Big A – presumably Aqueduct was needed to fulfil some of its near-neighbour’s dates. [It was/is, as Belmont is under reconstruction - Ed.]
The three horses, Nations Pride at the Big A, and the juvenile Mysterious Night and French 2,000 Guineas winner Modern Games in Toronto, all bolted up. They showed, as if we didn’t know already, that North American turf horses are a pretty crummy bunch, relatively speaking at least. Each of the trio won by at least five lengths – cumulatively just over 17 – and picked up a combined $1,450,000 - £920,000 according to the Racing Post. However, with the pound at a long-time low against the dollar, it currently converts at a shade more than £1,250,000, and so made it a very worthwhile trip indeed for all concerned.
Buick will not have been even a trice concerned at Egan’s clean-up job, which also encompassed an impressive Mill Reef Stakes victory for Sakheer, who looked one of the fastest juveniles so far seen out. By common consent that put a classy gloss on an astounding day for his trainer Roger Varian.
With a second St Leger in the bag, Varian has been flying up the trainer charts in recent weeks, but even he would not have anticipated a seven-timer on a single day. The wins came nicely spread around the nation with three each at Newbury and at Ayr’s Western meeting and one at Newmarket. Had Cobalt Blue not been caught on the run-in at Wolverhampton it would have been an eight-timer!
I know I’m putting it at the bottom, but my race of the day, and one of amiable Roger’s septet, was Dusky Lord. This was his eighth run of the season and second win. I’d travelled a total of 1,800 miles to see each of the previous seven, in representing Jonathan Barnett, the football agent, one of those in the Partnership in whose colours he runs.
Six days earlier he had raced from the worst stall of all in the Portland at Doncaster, frustratingly as it was a target I’d suggested for him all year, and he was never able to overcome the disadvantage. David Egan, who won on him at Newmarket in the spring and finished a close second on the four-year-old at Glorious Goodwood, was adamant. “He ran well.”
Armed with that intelligence, Varian declared him for Ayr, happy he had not had too hard a race thanks to Egan’s sensible ride. While he missed by only a few horses and a couple of pounds to make the Big Show, he slid in almost at the top of the Silver Cup, albeit with a massive weight – 9st 11lb.
So, in front of the TV, I was happy to see Jack Mitchell, who had won on Dusky Lord at Newcastle last year, get him away well in the middle group. From then on it was 70 seconds of regret that I’d not taken another road trip – this time 975 miles, there and back.
From here let me leave you in the hands of Timeform. They reported: "Dusky Lord turned out again quickly, having been drawn out of things in the Portland, proved a revelation back in headgear <cheek-pieces>, showing much improved form, rare to see a handicap of this nature won with such complete authority; midfield, tanked along, quickened to lead over 2f out, drew clear, impressive; it’s hard to see even a big rise in the weights being enough to stop him being of interest again."
The Silver Cup has been an adjunct of the Gold Cup for at least a decade. I checked the last eight and each time the Gold Cup, as one would expect, has been run in the quicker time, always between 0.2 sec and 0.8 sec faster. Saturday’s big race went to now 15-time winner Summerghand, trained by David O’Meara. His time was 0.93 sec slower than Dusky Lord’s.
The Racing Post, to my mind, often does a fair bit of massaging of their speed figures. Summerghand’s figure was 72, compared with Dusky Lord’s 95, which represents a second and a half or seven and a half lengths' difference. Yet to arrive at such a low mark on what is clearly Summerghand’s best run of the year, they felt obliged to give him his smallest time performance of the season after 79, 75, 88, 76 and 85.
They clearly felt they had to minimise the figure for Dusky Lord as it would have been in the stratosphere. After the way he won, without being slightly challenged by his 24 rivals, the margin of the win and the fast time, Timeform have raised his mark from the high 90’s to 109. Phil Bull, Timeform’s founder whose whole ethos was based on the accurate interpretation of times, will be turning in his grave!
I think the partners have a Group horse of the future. What a day for Roger Varian, David Egan, Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Hughie Morrison! Not too shabby for Dusky Lord and his owners either!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/duskylord_ayrsilvercup2022.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-09-19 07:19:142022-09-19 08:59:38Monday Musings: A Dusky Beauty
As they say, prediction is difficult, especially about the future; and what better frame upon which to overlay such haphazard clairvoyance than three 25-runner straight track sprint handicaps? Today and tomorrow, Ayr continues to host its Western meeting which, among many enticing puzzles, features the Ayr Gold Cup and its *two* consolation races, the Silver and Bronze Cups.
Each features a straight line three-quarter mile charge that begins in a chute, runs slightly downhill for the first third before plateauing and then rising a touch until a furlong or so from home where it flattens out. It can be difficult for horses to make ground between three and one furlongs out, and those with a position in the first half of the field are often favoured especially on good or quicker going.
The turf this year looks like being good, good to soft in places and, with the weather drying out, that may also prove an inconvenience to late runners. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is difficult.
The purpose of this piece is not to tip the winners - I know my limits! - but, rather, to try to shortlist the fields based on what we know of the recent past and on this weekend's distribution of speedy early horses.
Ayr Historical Draw / Run Style Heat Map
History is our best friend when it comes to guessing about tomorrow, or this afternoon, or whenever after now, and the following image illustrates the history of 16+ runner six furlong handicaps at Ayr on going between good and good to soft:
It shows a fairly even distribution with the possible exception of horses drawn high that are waited with: this group has struggled a smidge. Front runners and prominent racers have exceeded the 50% percentage of rivals beaten metric average across the track, though by fine margins in the main.
2022 Ayr Bronze Cup Pace Map
Here's how the pace map looks for the Bronze Cup. There's a fairly even distribution of early toe, with Never Dark - who ran well yesterday - low, Monsieur Kodi middle, and Fast And Loose highest of all.
My opening gambit is that the winner may be drawn either in stalls 1 to 6, or in 18 to 25; which is to say I'm lukewarm on the prospects of those drawn middle - especially if, as often happens, the field splits into two and travels close to either rail.
2022 Ayr Silver Cup Pace Map
Pundits often scratch their heads when trying to explain how a draw bias reverses from one race to the next. The reason for this reversal is almost always because there wasn't a draw bias in the first place; rather, there was a proliferation of pace on one side of the track which allowed some horses in that group to get a quicker lead than their counterparts elsewhere on the piste.
A group of fast horses can appear anywhere across a level playing field and be the differentiator, a fact seemingly too tricky for some broadcasters to conjure with. (In fairness, they probably don't have great data viz like us 🙂 )
To the Silver Cup and, bar Emperor Spirit in stall one, the pace looks to be in the bigger numbers here, and I'd be betting the winner to emerge from the highest third or so of the stalls.
2022 Ayr Gold Cup Pace Map
The main event itself, the 2022 Ayr Gold Cup, is more difficult to predict pace wise. As is shown in the visual below, Bergerac (stall 8) and Mr Wagyu (15) are the clear pace horses. But both have options. Will Bergerac tack across towards the far rail (from where stall one emerges)? Will Mr Wagyu turn right from the gate and race up the stands rail? Or will one or both stay centre?
I don't know, and the answer to which stall the winner starts from may depend heavily on this factor. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is... never mind.
From a punting perspective, I'm guessing the two quick early horses jump and run; that is, they go straight rather than deviating towards a rail, towing the group between them - in stalls 9 to 14 - into the race. With so few horses in the pace map's 'prominent' column, they each have a chance to get a relatively uncontested lead, with sufficient distance across the track between them to not take each other on; in that scenario, they are credible all-the-way victors.
2022 Ayr Cups Summary
On paper, or a computer screen, the Gold Cup looks tougher to fathom from a draw/pace perspective than the consolation races. Not that the Silver and Bronze Cups are straightforward to decipher. So, just for fun, I'll say that the Bronze Cup winner will be drawn low, the Silver Cup winner high, and the Gold Cup winner middle. Imagine the pundit confusion should that entirely credible scenario come to pass!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AyrDrawBias.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-09-16 08:13:472022-09-16 08:14:242022 Ayr Gold/ Silver/ Bronze Cup Draw & Pace
My series on all weather tracks continues with the first of a two-parter looking at the Irish racecourse at Dundalk, writes Dave Renham. This is my first detailed piece of research on Dundalk and I am hoping to find some credible angles which will help us all when having a bet there. The track is 1m2f in circumference and left handed and as you can see in the picture below the 5f distance starts from a chute which joins the round course at the penultimate bend.
Dundalk was resurfaced in April 2020 and reopened in July of that year. So, for this article, the focus will be on races run from 12th July 2020 (the first fixture after the renovations) to 31st August 2022. I will at times be comparing the new data with past data to try and gauge whether there are any significant differences compared to the results from the old surface.
I have used the Geegeez toolkit - Query Tool, Pace and Draw Analysers - for all the data collection: these can be accessed from the home page from the Tools dropdown menu.
Running Style at Dundalk
For regular readers of my Geegeez articles, they will know that I believe the run style of horses at certain distances is important and is still an underused approach when taking into account all punters as a whole. For the new readers, I will briefly discuss what is meant by run style before doing some digging. In essence, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race. These are split into the following four categories:
Led (4) – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent (3) – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These numbers can be a useful tool for crunchers like myself as they can be used to create different numerical representations.
When analysing Dundalk run style, and indeed later when analysing the draw, I will be looking at individual distances – mainly the shorter ones with the main focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The shorter distances are more prone to ‘bias’ both in terms of run style and draw.
Dundalk Racecourse 5f Run Style Bias
Let's look at the shortest trip first. Below are the run style (pace) figures taken from the Query Tool for the period since the resurfacing (12/7/20 to 31/8/22):
Early leaders / front runners have had a strong advantage it seems, albeit from a relatively modest sample. This is a pattern that we have seen over the minimum trip of 5f at several courses, both on the all weather and on turf, especially on turning tracks; so, despite the sample size, the chances are that this front running bias is likely to continue. The A/E (Actual vs Expected) indices and Impact Values (IV) also correlate strongly which gives more confidence to the findings*. Combining win and placed percentages (each way) also seems to confirm the bias:
Hold up horses have a dreadful record in handicaps over five furlongs at Dundalk: a front runner is roughly four times more likely to make the frame than any individual hold up horse.
I looked back at the 5f data before the resurfacing of the track, going back as far as I could to 2009, and the front running bias existed then, too. The win percentage of 16.1% and the win / placed percentage of 40.3% are slightly below the more recent figures posted by front runners, but they were still much stronger than any other run style category during that time frame.
My conclusion is that the surface change has not made it more difficult to win from the front in 5f handicaps, indeed it has perhaps made it easier. The next year or two will help to confirm or deny this early view.
Before moving onto to 6f handicaps, I decided to dig a bit deeper into the more recent 5f stats and I looked at the performance of front running handicappers in terms of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB). This is a measure to help with determining the strength of a bias, and it helps by awarding every runner in every qualifying race with a 'score' based on the number of rivals they beat. The winner will have a score of 1.00 (100% of rivals beaten) and the last placed horse will have a score of 0.00 (0% of rivals beaten). The fifth horse home in a nine-horse race, for instance, will have beaten four rivals (6th, 7th, 8th and 9th) and lost to four rivals (the first four home) for a PRB of 0.50 (50% of rivals beaten).
A score of 0.55 or higher is considered a good advantage, while 0.45 or lower can be viewed as a negative.
Getting back to Dundalk five furlong handicaps, I found that front runners over this trip had a PRB of 0.64. This is further proof of the advantage front runners have. I did the same calculations for hold up horses, too, and their PRB stood at a lowly 0.40.
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SIDEBAR: How I calculated PRB for this article
PRB figures can be found on Geegeez in different areas. For example if you click on the record of a horse you will see something like the following:
Here we have not just the win, placed, profit, prize money data, but also the PRB figures. In this case the turf PRB (0.62), all-weather PRB (0.52) and the overall PRB (0.57). You can get this PRB info also when clicking on the records of trainers, jockeys and sires.
PRB figures are also shared in the Draw Analyser:
In this example (taken from Chester) we see the PRB figures back up the win% data showing a strong low draw bias and, particularly, a negative bias for high-drawn horses.
The PRB figures shared earlier for front runners and hold up horses in 5f handicaps at Dundalk were not taken directly from a page on the site; rather, I manually calculated them. It was not difficult to do and I’ll now offer a quick explanation of how I calculated that front running figure of 0.64 (in case you want to examine this type of idea yourself).
Firstly, in the Query Tool I looked for all horses that had gained a 4 pace rating in 5f 8+ handicaps:
This generated the following results:
These are the figures seen at the start of this article is the very first table. From here I clicked on the qualifier tab, thus:
With 20 qualifiers per page, there were 3 pages of qualifiers in total. I copied each page of data and pasted into Microsoft Excel. I then created two new columns using a simple formula – ‘Rivals beaten’ and ‘Rivals Not Beaten’:
I then totalled up the Rivals Beaten column (286) and the Rivals Not Beaten column (161). To calculate the PRB figure you add together the two totals (447) and divide the Rivals Beaten number into this total (286 divided by 447). This gives us the 0.64 figure shown earlier.
I personally will do these run style PRB calculations for other courses now unless the data set is too big. Copying and pasting a few pages of qualifiers is relatively quick; however, doing it, say, for 100 pages is probably going above and beyond!
SIDEBAR ENDS
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I have also looked at the 5f non-handicaps stats – data is limited as there have only been 17 qualifying races (with 8+ runners). However, the win / win & placed (each way) stats suggest a strong front running edge here too:
All the stats I have shared do seem to point to a strong front running bias over 5f at Dundalk regardless of race type.
Below is a PRB heat map overlaying draw thirds and run styles for 8+ runner handicaps at Dundalk since 2020:
It is clear that low and led/prominent, or indeed almost any led/prominent position is hugely more beneficial than being waited with further back.
Dundalk Racecourse 6f Run Style Bias
Up a furlong now to six furlongs, and a look at the handicap run style stats over this distance since the resurfacing work; again 8+ runner races only to qualify:
At first glance these stats suggest that front runners have a slightly stronger edge over this extra furlong. The IV for front runners of 2.7 is high; as is the 1.79 A/E index.
Here are the win and placed percentages (each way):
There is a strong correlation here when comparing the each way stats with the win only stats – they paint the same picture.
Looking at the data from before the resurface (all the way back to 2009), front runners won just over 16% of races so the bias was evident but maybe not quite as strong. Hold up horses had a win percentage of 5% which is a bit below the more recent figure.
A look now at the PRB figures for front runners versus hold up horses since July 2020. Front runners have a huge PRB of 0.68, while hold up horses are down with a PRB of 0.43. These are similar to the 5f figures as one would probably expect. (These were calculated using Excel as outlined above).
It makes sense to share the non-handicap stats as I did over 5f. Here is a graphic of the win / win and placed (each way) run style percentages for non-handicap races over 6f:
In terms of win percentages, prominent racers have nudged ahead of front runners, but when we look at the win & placed (each way) figures, front runners lead once more. The strongest aspect of these data, it seems, is the quite dreadful win record for horses that race off the pace either in mid-division or held up: both run style win percentages loiter below 3%. This from 34 races giving us a small but probably satisfactory sample size.
All the 6f handicap statistics point to the fact that front runners have a very strong edge. This advantage looks even more potent than over 5f. If this is the case, then perhaps it is down to the fact that over 6f the full turn comes into play; over 5f, because of the chute, there is effectively only a half turn (see first image at the top of this post). This is just conjecture, but it feels like a plausible suggestion. In non-handicaps, prominent racers and front runners combine to have a monster edge over those midfield and hold up horses in the first quarter mile or so.
When reviewing the draw / run style heat map we again see the difficulty slow starters face in getting competitive:
Dundalk Racecourse 7f Run Style Bias
Let's move on to 7f now (12/7/20 to 31/8/22):
Front runners are not the most successful group over this range; over seven furlongs, the accolade goes to prominent racers. There is still a run style bias in play here with runners close up or on the pace early having an edge over those further back. What is noticeable at most tracks is that the front-running win percentage tends to drop as the distance increases past the shortest races distances of five and six furlongs. This is mainly because the horses behind the early leader have more time to make their challenge and can eventually get to the front themselves.
Looking at the long term data going back to 2009 up to the time the course was resurfaced, front runners won 11.8% so they were slightly more successful during that period. However, a change of one percentage point is not statistically significant. It looks like the 7f run style picture has not really changed much since the renovation work.
7f non-handicaps have a similar spread of results since the resurfacing occurred – front runners have an edge with a 13% success rate; prominent racers 11%; midfield 9% and hold up horses were worse off again at just 4% (though there is some selection bias in the latter cohort due to horses of very limited ability, or those not yet ready or able to show their full ability, sometimes running in non-handicaps).
This time, the PRB heat map overlaying draw and run style is less conclusive, but it does suggest middle to high and not held up could be beneficial.
Dundalk Racecourse 1m Run Style Bias
The stats are similar over a mile with regards front runners – those most forwardly placed have won 11% of races in the past two years. Their A/E index stands at 1.13 and Win Impact Value at 1.48 suggesting a small edge still. Having said that, it is not a course/distance combination where I would looking to use run style bias as a key part in my selection process.
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In conclusion, looking at run style as a whole across the shorter distances, front runners have a clear advantage over sprint trips (5f-6f) in handicaps. In non-handicaps this is true over 5f and to a lesser extent over 6f. Having said that, hold up horses and horses that race mid-division early really struggle over five and six furlongs regardless of race type. Over 7f (both handicaps and non-handicaps), horses that front run or race prominently have had the edge over horses that race mid-pack or at the back early. Once we get to 1 mile and further it becomes a relatively even playing field.
Draw Bias at Dundalk Racecourse
With the draw I like to compare recent time frames of a similar length. This is because draw patterns can (and do!) change at any time. Also, at Dundalk they have adjusted the rails on the home turn, putting in a false rail which potentially has ramifications for the draw. This change occurred more than five years ago so it makes sense not to include races before the false rail was introduced. Hence I will be looking at 8+ runner handicap draw data from July 12th 2020 to August 31st 2022, which is clearly the key data, but then comparing it with the prior two years before the resurfacing and after the false rail addition (going back to the start of 2018). Still with me? Good!
When I look at the draw my first port of call is to split the starting stall numbers into three roughly equal thirds and compare win percentages; percentages of around 33% across the board give us a completely level playing field in terms of the draw, deviations from that may imply an advantage or disadvantage.
Dundalk Racecourse 5f Draw Bias
Since the resurfacing in 2020 here are the draw splits over 5f (8+ runner handicaps):
There looks to be a clear edge to lower drawn horses here with those drawn very high struggling commensurately. Let us look now at the data in terms of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB).
This backs up the win% breakdown showing good correlation, though perhaps not as striking as in pure win percentage terms. Another snippet worth sharing is that horses drawn five or lower have won 69% of the races from just 44.5% of the total runners.
Time to compare the win percentages from this post-renovation period with data from the two years or so prior, specifically 1st January 2018 to 31st March 2020:
The results are very similar and the sample sizes are virtually identical. It could be that the new surface has slightly strengthened the low draw bias; it will be interesting to monitor the results of the next 12 months to see if this is the case.
As far as the draw is concerned I rarely look at non-handicap data unless I have a huge sample size. Here we have less than 20 races and so it is probably not a worthwhile proposition to dig into the numbers.
Dundalk Racecourse 6f Draw Bias
Below are the 6f draw data by thirds:
There have been nearly 60 races so we have a decent sample size with which to work; low draws seem to have a strong edge, but my initial enthusiasm is tempered by the PRB figures:
This is a good example of why digging deeper into data is important and why we need to be cautious of small samples, even when they're relatively large in the context of horseracing analysis. The figures here suggest a slight lower to middle bias exists but nothing more. We need to be wary of that 50.8 win% for the bottom third of the draw, which is almost certainly inflated. The each way figures for each third are also virtually identical, which lends more credence to the PRB figures.
Looking at the data from 1st Jan 2018 to 31st March 2020, I would suggest a strong low draw bias was in existence as the win percentages and the PRB data correlate strongly this time. Win percentages first:
These are the equivalent PRB figures:
0.59 is a huge PRB figure for the lowest section of the draw. Hence my reading of the draw at Dundalk over 6f is that the new surface has some an effect in nullifying a previous low draw bias. Given the choice I’d still prefer to be drawn low, but it is marginal. Essentially I would not see the draw as a major factor over 6f at Dundalk.
Dundalk Racecourse 7f Draw Bias
Below are the 7f data and the draw splits since the course was resurfaced are as follows:
It's relatively even this time, although middle draws have won a shade more often than the other two sections. The PRB figures are as follows:
These figures correlate with the win stats suggesting if there is any edge, it lies with the middle draws. Previous to this (1/1/18 to 31/3/20), the PRB split had been similar with 0.54 for middle draws once again, but the 0.47 and 0.50 were reversed with low draws at 0.50 and high at 0.47. It seems therefore that a middle draw looks to have a small advantage over 7f but it does not look strong enough to easily exploit.
Other Dundalk Draw Observations / Conclusions
I have looked at draw data for a mile and beyond but the thirds are very even and essentially it looks like only the 5f distance is of real interest here in terms of a usable draw bias. At the minimum range, a low draw does seem to have a tangible edge and is something we should factor into our selection process.
If you, like me, are interested in exotic ‘draw based’ bets, note that a profit could been secured in 8+ runner 5f handicaps (12/7/20 to 31/8/22) combining the five lowest drawn horses in full cover tricasts: this would have provided four winning payouts and returned a profit of 52p in the £. It should be noted that a five-horse combination tricast/trifecta bet involves 60 bets so it can become a costly wager during a long losing run. Of course the beauty of tricasts is that payouts can be massive, which is why punters like me are lured into them!
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That concludes part one of this Dundalk analysis and it’s time to research part two. My study to date suggests that, in terms of run style and draw, we have the following biases to work with this winter:
Handicap biases
5f – front running bias; low draw bias
6f – front running bias
Non-handicap biases
5f – front running bias;
6f – front runners/prominent racer bias
Dundalk, as a track, does not offer as wide a range of biases as, say, Chester, but over five and six furlongs the run style edge in particular should give us a leg up over the uninformed.
They stood in the owners’ lunchroom at Doncaster yesterday on Mike Cattermole’s cue and perfectly observed the requested two minutes’ silence, writes Tony Stafford. Then, on the big screen behind the excellent cold and hot buffet, was the unforgettable image of Her Late Majesty’s greatest moment as a racehorse owner – never mind winning the Gold Cup with Estimate – the grainy St Leger victory of her home-bred filly Dunfermline in 1977, her Silver Jubilee.
Alone now of the principals of that moment, the indefatigable Willie Carson is still very much with us. With that distinctive head looking down style, along with the rhythmic punching action, he kept Dunfermline in touch with the super horse that was the previously unbeaten and never again vanquished dual Arc winner, Alleged, and Lester Piggott.
Unbelievably, the filly can be seen closing the gap that Lester began to extend once taking the lead at the four-furlong pole. In the last furlong, the filly joined her rival and inexorably gained the advantage. You can see Lester pointedly easing Alleged in the last few strides – no sign of a rat-tat-tat response once he knew the Vincent O’Brien colt was beaten.
Seven years earlier, the same peerless pair, O’Brien and Piggott, had arrived at Doncaster with a similarly unbeaten American-bred colt in the shape of Nijinsky. In his case he did indeed win the St Leger but his exertions in becoming the first (and last) Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 prefaced defeats in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champion Stakes.
Alleged, a late developer whose fragile forelegs had persuaded connections to race him in Europe despite his dirt pedigree, did not contest either of the earlier UK Classics. Piggott’s restraint on Town Moor left him fresh enough to win his first Arc three weeks later when Dunfermline did well to finish fourth. He followed up impressively in Europe’s Championship race twelve months later before retiring to stud in Kentucky.
In another uncanny moment, as the Dunfermline race was being shown, and the Royal hearse was making its six-hour roadside-packed way from Balmoral to Edinburgh, trainer Ben Hanbury happened to sit down at the next table to myself. We showed our respective respects without talking and I’m not sure quite how I recognised the former Newmarket trainer, soberly dressed, without the colourful trousers he always wore at Keeneland where Midway Lady was bought.
She won five of her six races and was unbeaten at three in 1986 when she won both the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Injury prevented any further active involvement but she bred an Oaks winner in Eswarah, trained by Michael Jarvis, in 2005. You guessed it, Midway Lady was a daughter – the best daughter – of Alleged.
Earlier, on my way to the track, I listened to a Radio 5 Live broadcast where I’m sure I heard that Dunfermline, situated between Perth and Edinburgh, was to be one of the towns where the car could be seen.
I bumped into fellow Arsenal fan and Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan (Benny The Dip, 1997) in the seats outside the Press Room as they milled around before the start of the big race. He had driven Frankie Dettori to the races, laughing as he related the former champion had cried off riding Emily Dickinson for the Coolmore team to partner another filly, Ralph Beckett’s Haskoy, for whom a £50,000 supplementary entry fee was paid.
“I’ve backed Emily”, said Willie. “Frankie keeps switching off winners”, he laughed. Ryan agreed that to consider the St Leger in any ground as a mile and three-quarters race was mistaken. “It’s a long 14 furlongs anyway, but here with that five-furlong run-in it’s really a two-mile grind”, he said.
Ryan works for Charlie Appleby in his day job – “From the floor, not on top anymore”, but went on to say that the trip on that track would be the worry for New London, the favourite for the race. His stamina appeared to run out in much the way of Alleged all those 45 years ago as he finished third behind the Roger Varian-trained Eldar Eldarov.
Frankie got one thing right, Haskoy going past the post three places ahead of Emily Dickinson in second, but what he didn’t do correctly was to satisfy the stewards that there was nothing wrong with his riding. They found he had caused interference to fourth home Giavellotto, trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Neil Callan.
They demoted Haskoy to fourth, promoting Giavellotto to third and also giving New London a knock-on promotion to second. It’s quite a big deal in prizemoney terms, second and third both doubling up their original earnings while Haskoy, far from gaining a profit on the deal after the £50k supplementary fee, is now in deficit. No wonder Beckett, “under the interference rules”, is planning an appeal.
If the last few days have been a changing of the guard in terms of the Monarch, it was very much a similar situation in the race itself. The previous five winners had all either been sons or grandsons of Galileo. Yesterday he didn’t have a representative and the only second generation runners were sixth-placed 150-1 shot El Habeeb, by Al Rifai, and last home Lizzie Jean (100-1), by Nathaniel. He died last summer, so a maximum of two more crops of three-year-olds can represent him as Classic contenders.
The winner, third-placed over the line New London and fifth home Emily Dickinson were all by Dubawi, Galileo’s sparring partner for the past decade. Now, with a freer field for a few years at least, he can enjoy a King Charles III-like interregnum at the top of the stallion charts until the next King of the Sires comes along.
For Varian it was a second St Leger triumph, following Kingston Hill eight years ago, but a first for David Egan, the highly personable and talented son of weighing room legend and shrewd bloodstock dealer, John.
I had the good fortune to be representing Jonathan Barnett, one of the owners in Varian’s sprinter Dusky Lord, along with part-owner Jennie Allen at her home course. We stood in the paddock together with trainer and rider before the race. Dusky Lord had a near impossible draw but ran well. I was delighted for both trainer and rider, for whom Eldar Eldarov looks a stayer to follow.
Over in Ireland Kyprios kept up the pressure in the staying ranks, the four-year-old seeing off fellow older gentleman Hamish in the Irish St Leger. By then his Goodwood Cup victim Trueshan had failed to deliver odds of 9-2 laid on in the Doncaster Cup, his erratic steering in the last 100 yards viewed low down from right on the winning line as Hollie tried to straighten him for a final flourish. Coltrane, expertly ridden by one of this site’s ambassadors, David Probert, was a deserved beneficiary of what Alan King clearly believes is the memory of Trueshan’s hard race at Goodwood behind Kyprios and Stradivarius on faster than ideal ground.
It was gloom all round for the Trueshan team of owners. Their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, had taken the 10.30 train from King’s Cross, travel time 90 minutes and arrived via a taxi five minutes before Trueshan’s race – scheduled off time 2.45.
All through what remained of the afternoon, Tony Hunt, Andrew’s “eyes” for the day monitored the denuded Sunday service which promised delays and cancellations, so I thought it appropriate on such a day to offer a lift to Central London.
We had a lovely three hours listening to the Test match, reminiscing about the Queen – yes, I did meet her and shared a few words when she visited the Daily Telegraph and talked about reading the racing page every day! – and learning the latest about Andrew’s great staying hurdler, Paisley Park. What a day!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Coltrane_DoncasterCup_2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-09-12 07:37:282022-09-12 08:04:02Monday Musings: Doncaster Pays its Respects
As we move into September, the weather is starting to change, and my mind is drawn to the autumn and winter racing programme, writes Dave Renham. I will be looking at National Hunt racing in the near future but, before that, what follows is the first article in a new series focusing on the all-weather tracks. In it, I will dig into numerous key stats at the six UK all-weather tracks, as well as looking in detail for the first time at Dundalk in Ireland.
I will be using all-weather racing data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 when analysing the UK tracks, giving us the opportunity to examine a plethora of stats and angles. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have mentioned before we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.
I have shared stats about Chelmsford racecourse before in regards to running style, and also I have looked briefly at the draw, too. I will update both of these here, and there is a number of other areas I am going to look into as well. Let's start with running style.
Running Style (Pace) Bias at Chelmsford
When looking at run style, I have always focused on handicaps, and handicaps with fields of eight or more runners. In an article published in autumn last year (2021), the data strongly pointed to a front-running bias in races staged between 5f and 7f; the strongest bias was at the minimum trip, then seven furlongs, and then six furlongs. I have decided to share only the new data since I collated that article, which gives eleven months of results to analyse. Below are the win strike rates for front runners over these three trips in 8+ runner handicaps (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):
The figures correlate well with the longer term data, so in these types of races whoever leads early does have a clear edge. The A/E indices show a similar picture:
The 7f figure is slightly above the long term average figure, but that can happen with smaller samples.
What is clear is that there is a sliding scale in these races when it comes to run style – front runners have the advantage; prominent racers are next best and those mid division or held up are definitely at a disadvantage.
Before moving on, here is the long-term run style picture in terms of win strike rate across all distances at Chelmsford going back to the start of 2017 (8+ runner handicaps):
There's a strong correlation between race distance and front end advantage: generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias; once we get to a mile and 1m2f the bias is minimal. At 1m 5f or further, front-runners are at a disadvantage.
Draw Bias at Chelmsford
Onto to the Chelmsford draw now, and for this area I will again be ignoring smaller fields and sticking to 8+ runner handicaps.
The racecourse map below shows the course is left handed and the lowest draws are positioned closest to the inside. Hence, over the shorter distances one would expect an advantage of some sort for lower drawn runners.
Chelmsford City Racecourse 5 furlong Draw Bias
When I look at the draw, my first port of call is to split the field into three thirds and compare the win percentages. Here are the relevant five furlong draw data for this distance going back to 2017:
An edge to lower drawn horses would have been expected (see above) although, considering the course configuration, it is a relatively modest one. These are the types of percentages one would have expected given that lower draws are closest to the inside rail and, therefore, have the least distance to travel around the turn. Another measure of draw bias is to look at the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) from each stall position. These figures correlate with the win percentages as you will see below:
Those drawn 1 or 2 have a clear edge over the rest of the stall positions. Between those two berths, they have accounted for 40 winners from 128 races (31.3% of all races). Further, their PRB figures are a very high 56% (horses drawn 1) and 58% (drawn 2). Finally on these two draws, they have combined to make a small profit to SP of £23.09 which equates to nearly 10p profit for every £1 bet.
Chelmsford City Racecourse 6 furlong Draw Bias
Moving up a furlong to six furlongs, the win percentages across the three thirds are very even (low 36.1%; middle 30.7%; high 33.2%). However, the PRB figures suggest the lowest third does retain some sort of an edge:
Likewise combining win and placed results suggest this small edge does exist:
All in all, given the choice, I’d rather be drawn very low than middle to high over 6f.
Chelmsford City Racecourse 7 furlong Draw Bias
The low third come out slightly better at this distance, too, with the PRB for the low third (inside draws) standing at 0.53 (53% of rivals beaten) versus the high third’s figure of 0.46 (46%). Anything above 0.55 is a material positive bias while anything below 0.45 is a negative bias.
Chelmsford City Racecourse 1 Mile Draw Bias
In my recent series of articles on draw bias, this mile trip was highlighted as having a relatively strong bias. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentages:
Perhaps it's because mile races start in a chute and they race almost directly into a dogleg bend that figures are similar to the 5f statistics at this range, as are the PRB figures:
It seems therefore that over 5f and 1m - the two distances where the field races very quickly into a bend - we have a playable draw bias, albeit perhaps not of Chester proportions. Essentially over these two trips (and to a lesser extent over 6f and 7f), we would prefer a lower draw than a middle or high one. And especially if combined with a forward going run style.
For the remainder of this article I will be using all race data, not just 8+ runner handicaps.
Top Trainers at Chelmsford Racecourse
I have delved into trainer stats quite a lot recently and the advantage of all-weather tracks, from a punting perspective, is that each year there is a huge number of meetings. This gives a bigger data set and, when it comes to trainer stats, I think that is very important. There are 93 trainers who saddled 70 or more runners during the study period and here are the top 15 in terms of win strike rate. As I mentioned, this incorporates ALL races, both handicaps and non handicaps:
John Gosden at Chelmsford Racecourse
Five of the 15 trainers in the table have been profitable to SP. Seven have A/E indices in excess of 1.00, indicating that their runners have offer bettors some value. It is worth looking at a couple of these handlers in more detail, starting with the Gosden stable. Here are John's (and, more recently, with his son Thady) most noteworthy stats:
Older horses (aged 4+) have provided ten winners from 22 (SR 45.5%) for a small profit of £5.17 (and a large ROI +23.5%).
Horses priced 5/1 or shorter have produced a win% strike rate of 33.7% thanks to 67 winners from 199 runners. Backing all such runners would have yielded a small profit of £13.26 (ROI +6.7%). Compare this to horses 11/2 or bigger in price, where only two of the 79 runners won, producing disastrous losses of nearly 80 pence in the £.
Frankie Dettori on Gosden runners at Chelmsford has won on 13 of his 26 mounts. How often they'll combine this winter remains to be seen, however.
Gosden’s front runners have won 36.5% of their races, while those held up have won just 15.6%.
Richard Hughes at Chelmsford Racecourse
Richard Hughes has a very solid looking record with a one-in-five win ratio and an A/E index of 1.22. In fact, Hughes has been extremely consistent and this can be illustrated by comparing his A/E indices each year (see graph below):
All six years have been above the magic 1.00 figure. He looks a trainer to potentially follow at the course. Here are some of Hughes's strongest snippets:
His record in handicaps is very good – 39 winners from 169 (SR 23.1%) for a very healthy profit of £73.29 (ROI +43.4%).
Hughes is happy to put a claiming jockey on board his runners and they have performed marginally better than professional jockeys, with 19 wins from 84 (SR 22.6%) producing returns of 36p in the £.
His biggest priced winner was 22/1 and he has had an even spread of winners across the price ranges. Horses priced 5/1 or shorter have been a good group for him, as with the Gosden stable; 36 wins from 117 runners (SR 30.8%) for a profit of £21.36 (ROI +18.3%).
Trainers to Beware at Chelmsford Racecourse
Before moving on, here are the trainers with the poorest win strike rates ( all below 7%). It is always worth being aware of trainers that struggle under certain circumstances:
It is interesting to see Richard Fahey in this list. Fahey is not usually a trainer seen this low down the pecking order, and it is not a short trip from North Yorkshire to the Essex showgrounds. Worryingly, he has had 56 runners that started in the top four of the betting and only six of them won. These runners would have produced losses of over 56 pence in the £.
Other notable names in the list are George Boughey and Robert Eddery, both of whose A/E figures are very weak.
Gender bias at Chelmsford Racecourse?
There has always been a slight gender bias when it comes to flat racing with male horses out-performing females. This bias has traditionally been slightly more pronounced in all-weather racing as compared to the turf. For whatever reason, it may not be as strong now as 15 to 20 years ago, but it does still exist, including at Chelmsford, as the table below indicates.
The differences may look relatively modest, but they are significant enough that we, as punters, should be aware of them. A lower strike rate would be forgiven in exchange for a higher ROI but, as can be seen, all data are less appealing than the male cohort. Additionally, when we break this data down further by age group we get the following:
Colts and geldings clearly outperform fillies at 2, 3 and 4 years old but, as the horses get older, it seems to level out.
The A/E indices back this up with excellent correlation with the strike rates:
It will be fascinating to see if any of the other courses display a similar pattern when it comes to age and gender.
Market factors at Chelmsford Racecourse
As we know the betting market is extremely efficient and favourites, for example, have a similar strike rate across all courses. Having said that, there are some differences that will become apparent over this series of individual racetrack articles. Let’s examine Chelmsford in more detail from a market perspective.
Firstly let me take a look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 8th or lower:
A sliding scale, as one would expect, but the win percentage for favourites is slightly higher than the average for all flat courses (34.21% compared with an overall average of just under 33%). This graph also shows how rare it is for outsiders to be successful: those outside of the top five in the market have collectively won less than once every nine races; or, put another way, the top five in the betting win eight out of every nine races at Chelmsford on average.
A look at the A/E indices now:
The value clearly lies with the top two in the betting at Chelmsford, or has done so during the period of study at least. Favourites lost just 4p in the £ to SP and actually made a small profit to Betfair SP.
Two-year-old favourites have the best strike rate of all age groups at just under 41% and they have made a small profit of 4p in the £ to SP, though this may simply be coincidence. That said, if you singled out 2yo favourites that were also top rated on the Peter May speed ratings (published here on geegeez and available to research in Query Tool) you would have had 102 qualifiers, of which 48 won (SR 47.1%) for a healthy profit of £24.33 (ROI +23.9%). For the record, all 300 2yos that topped the speed ratings (regardless of market rank) also made a small blind profit which is impressive.
Before leaving the market / price data section, it should be noted that huge prices have a dismal record at the course. There have been 1969 horses priced 50/1 or bigger and just eight have won. Losses of £1445 would have occurred if backing them, which equates to over 73p in every 3 bet.
Who Are The Best Sires at Chelmsford City Racecourse?
A look at performance by sire at Chelmsford now. Here are the top ten sires in terms of strike rate since 2017 (150 runs or more to qualify):
The top two in the list, Dubawi and Lope De Vega, edged into profit but both have had a big-priced winner which has skewed their stats (Dubawi at 40/1 and Lope De Vega at 33/1). Three of the ten have A/E indices above 1.00, with four more just below that figure. These seven sires - Lope De Vega, Oasis Dream, Dark Angel, Lethal Force, Mastercraftsman, Dutch Art and Showcasing – are worth scrutinising when researching a race at Chelmsford. One other sire, not listed in the table above, has an A/E index of over 1.00 and that is Swiss Spirit. His figure of 1.02 is clearly decent (overall win strike rate stands at 10.7%) and he's another worth looking out for.
A sire that did not make the list due to insufficient progeny runs is Frankel. His record, though, is also worth sharing as he has hit a strike rate of 21.3% thanks to 27 winners from 127 runners.
I also looked briefly at the damsire data and remarkably, and perhaps significantly, Dubawi had the highest strike rate there, too (at 15.9%). Only two damsires have A/E indices of over 1.00 and they are Rock of Gibraltar (1.28) and Danehill (1.11).
Chelmsford Racecourse Horses for courses
Let me finish by looking at some horses that have excelled at Chelmsford since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Also they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify. I have included a PRB column, too (Percentage of rivals beaten):
Krazy Paving, who heads the list, has also been placed a further three times at the track. Furthermore, he has the highest PRB figure, an impressive 0.81. Any horse in that list appearing at Chelmsford in the next few months is definitely worth at least a cursory glance, especially those with the highest PRB figures.
We all know racing is not a simple game – there is no easy shortcut to making long term profits. But I hope the statistics shared in this piece of research will be an aid to you when tackling races at Chelmsford in the near future. Please share any big successes with us in the future – my cut is only 25%! 😉
What is or was your favourite flat racehorse? Once that is revealed the inevitable question, certainly to my own favourite, is why, or more likely, who was he?
I have been unequivocal about mine for more than 60 years. I had already played my first game at Lord’s for London Federation of Boys Clubs when Hethersett, owned by Major Lionel B Holliday, prepared by his private trainer, Major Dick Hern, was one of seven horses to fall in the 1962 Derby won by Vincent O’Brien’s Larkspur.
Hethersett, winner of the three-runner Brighton Derby Trial – oh for that race to be brought back! – beating the smart pair River Chanter and Heron (he of the Sandown race of renown) in a canter so that on just his fourth career start he was 9/2 favourite in the 28-horse line-up.
After the fall at Epsom he came back with a poor run on firm ground in the Gordon Stakes but then three months on from achieving one ambition, I was to taste my first example of a “touch”, three winners in a “Trixie” all in a day on holiday in Bournemouth with my parents and an aunt and uncle. They had grown-up things to do. I played pitch and putt alone at Tuckton Bridge at nearby Christchurch then got to a betting shop in Bournemouth that didn’t mind under-age customers, in time for racing.
I forget how much I collected after the wins of Hethersett (Great Voltigeur); Sostenuto, owned by Phil Bull, in the Ebor; and, Persian Wonder (later a multiple champion stallion in South Africa) in the Falmouth Handicap, but it brought a “put it away!” from my mum when I surreptitiously showed the wad to her from the table behind as we sat down for supper in a café that night. After York I thought Hethersett was my sure thing then for the St Leger and he duly obliged at a nice price, too.
The Major Holliday thing was reinforced when a schoolfriend, Sim Galpert, proved to have an even deeper obsession with the Huddersfield industrialist, whose family firm eventually became ICI and lately Zeneca. One of the business’s biggest claims to fame was that they manufactured 11 million tons of TNT and never had a single loss of life in their factories.
Sim would bang on about the Holliday breeding – all the foals had the same initial as the stallions, Hethersett from Hugh Lupus and a later champion, Vaguely Noble, was by Vienna. Although we lost touch when we both left Central Foundation Grammar School in 1965, I’m sure the white, maroon hoop, armlets and cap stayed with him as they did with me.
Casualties were far more common in the irascible Major’s racing operation. Trainers came and went and at the end of 1962 Dick Hern abandoned ship and moved to West Ilsley, previously the base for Jack Colling who was retiring. I remember with all the venom of youth, regarding Dick Hern as a traitor, an opinion reinforced when Darling Boy, one of the horses he’d taken over, beat Hethersett on the St Leger winner’s four-year-old debut in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket.
He never won in three starts under the name of S J Meaney, the head lad in Hern’s time, Holliday himself effectively the trainer then, and retired to stud for a brief but successful career. He sired Arthur Budgett’s Derby winner, Blakeney, before dying soon after from a brain haemorrhage, caused in Hern’s opinion by the effects of that fall in the Classic.
While Sim and I have never spoken in almost 60 years, two other long-standing friends and fellow racing obsessives have stayed in contact. One of them, Peter Ashmore, called to see if I was going to be at Tattersalls sales last Wednesday, and when I said I would he brought me a book of which he was gushing in his praise.
It is called Brigadier Gerard and Me by Laurie Williamson, published by Brigustbooks and is sub-titled, A Personal Journey Through Horse Racing. Chunky, large and with print comfortably sized for senior readers, it has a cover price of £14.99 and extends to 524 pages. Peter said once he started reading the book he couldn’t put it down. I opened it on Friday morning and finished it at Sunday lunchtime.
Laurie was Brigadier Gerard’s groom throughout his entire time in the Hern stable, getting him at the start of his two-year-old year by a fluke – effectively none of the senior lads there cared for his owners, John and Jean Hislop.
This is where my other pal, of even longer duration than Peter, comes in. He is George Learoyd Hill, like me from the London Borough of Hackney, but with a far more interesting life than mine to tell. That said, he says the same about mine.
George’s racing interest was even more immediate than mine and he still had three of his teenage years in hand when he started work at Turf Newspapers in Curzon Street, W1. There, various members of the Jockey Club would pop in and out, taking George under their wing. Old Etonians almost to a man, their number regularly included John Hislop, whom George often spoke to.
Later we were colleagues for seven years at the Daily Telegraph, before George moved on but we’ve stayed firmly in touch. A man with thousands of racing books in his possession, I’m sure this one will be winging its way to him before Peter gets it back.
Like George, Peter and me, Laurie Williamson had a father who initiated and then shared the interest in racing. When the young man had the good fortune to land on Brigadier Gerard it was the incentive for him to stay with the horse for the whole of his career which coincided with the conclusion of his five-year apprenticeship.
Unlike the three of us, Laurie had the wherewithal to keep a detailed diary, so that many of the incidents that would have been confined to the dustbin of a fading memory have been retained in full focus.
John, and especially Jean Hislop, the breeders and owners of Brigadier Gerard, come out as off-hand or even rude and when confronted by the young man who cared day and night for their champion, they never had the slightest interest in giving his opinion house room.
Laurie, after the entirety of the horse’s career, reflected that he had only attempted to speak to John Hislop three times, twice being completely ignored. The one time he did get a reply was before the 2,000 Guineas where although third favourite, the Brigadier beat Mill Reef and My Swallow, the two other champions of that incredible 1971 Classic crop. Laurie asked Hislop what chance he thought Brigadier Gerard had of beating Mill Reef and was told, “if he doesn’t beat him today, he never will!”
On the other hand, Lord Rotherwick, owner of Duration, the other horse Laurie cared for throughout the same period, was very popular with the lads, always talking to them enthusiastically when his horses ran. He was the exception rather than the rule in those days of Military-type discipline and deference in racing stables.
Through the book it became clear that the relationship between Major Hern and the Hislops was not harmonious. Over time their insistence on planning his races themselves rather than taking full notice of Hern’s undoubted skill and knowledge, possibly, in Williamson’s opinion at any rate, was a contributory factor in his sole career defeat in the 1972 Benson and Hedges (now Juddmonte) Cup, his 16th race of 18.
A winner from five furlongs to a mile and a half, Brigadier Gerard has only recently, 50 years on, been given the full credit in ratings terms by Timeform, one of several well-thought-out themes in a book which tries with some success to argue his charge as superior to contemporary Mill Reef, predecessors Ribot and Sea Bird II, Nijinsky, his senior by one year and the sole Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 and more recent superstars Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars and Frankel.
He has an analytical and form-based method, one formulated with those many hours’ studying with his father the implications of the Brigadier’s training and racing. The one regret for me is that he didn’t ask someone like me, a racing person with journalistic, editing experience to run an eye over the finished copy.
Having grown up for all those Fleet Street days, including editing stories from Peter Scott and John Oaksey, two of the most oft-quoted writers in Laurie’s formidable offering, with the Daily Telegraph style book, I can be very pedantic – when I remember, even that was a while ago! Laurie’s book suffers from a comical treatment of possessives to the extent it can halt the flow of consciousness. Happily, though, it never stops the marvelling at this work of a lifetime. Also, the detailed index has all the names, but as Eric Morecambe might have said: “Not necessarily in the right order”! Or matching the pages where they are alleged to be found either in some cases! That index needs another look, too.
I won’t go any further to spoil what I promise is a great read. I knew what was coming for almost of all of it, names, race distances and the like from half a century ago. But then it was still early in my time in racing journalism, and long-term memory beats short-term by a distance, almost in Brigadier Gerard fashion! Younger readers will also find it enthralling.
In conclusion, Laurie confesses he was ready for some time to leave what was basically a five-year term of virtual slavery. It was only the good fortune of having a great horse – in his and probably my opinion, the greatest of them all - to live with, and a boss he respected, to a degree, that kept him there. The dream of getting rides soon evaporated for most of the 18 apprentices promised as such that tended to be there at any time. Despite that, he says it was a period in his life he would never have changed as it brought him in contact with Jill, his wife and mother and grandmother to their children.
When Brigadier Gerard retired back where it all started at Egerton Stud in Newmarket for his career as a stallion, Laurie travelled with the horse in the box from West Ilsley and said his farewells. Later, John Hislop, having heard that Williamson was quitting the yard and going out of racing, issued a decree banning Laurie from ever visiting the horse in his new home. He never again saw the horse that had been the entire raison d’etre of his life for three whole seasons. Nice man, that John Hislop!
Dick Hern was a man of the old school, and his two principal friends among the racing press, Peter Scott, Hotspur of the Telegraph, and Michael Seely of the Times, were allowed where all others were not.
I recall rather fortunately getting to him first after Henbit won the Derby in 1980. I asked him what he thought about Henbit and the race. Deadpan, with no hint of excitement, just a little supressed pride, he said: “He’s a nice horse. I always liked him. That was a good race.” Get the book and see what life was like for boys in stables half a century ago. Laurie survived it and should be proud of the volume he produced. If you’re reading this, Laurie, and you have a re-print in the pipeline, let me correct those irritating literals and that baffling index!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/brigadiergerardandme.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-09-05 07:22:302022-09-05 07:22:31Monday Musings: The Brigadier and The Major
York is the last major Flat festival that I'll work this year (I don't do Doncaster) and it's one that I look forward to more than most, writes David Massey. Yes, it's four days away from home, which is never ideal, but it's always a great atmosphere, and although it is hard work on the Saturday, it never really feels like it.
I'm picked up at half past nine on the Wednesday and it does not take us long to encounter our first issue. The A1 Northbound, a difficult road to navigate at the best of times, is blocked and that means taking the long way round up the M1. This, my friends, is why you set off stupidly early for the races when you're working, as you have to allow an hour for eventualities such as these. The last thing you want to do for a big meeting is miss the pick for your pitch, which for York is 90 minutes before the first each day.
There's a load of gear to hump on once we get there, but once the joint is in situ, we won't have to move it again until Saturday night, another blessing. Not only is the joint heavy but the wheels are broken, and moving the thing is akin to trying to get a wonky supermarket trolley full of concrete blocks heading in the right direction.
I've also got written work to do for the week and head to the Press Room once I'm in. It's hot, and my hat, which looks not unlike that of a cricket umpire's, is attracting some sharp comments from a certain bookmaker's PR man. That's sarcasm, better.
Anyway, suncreamed up and ready to go, the first race is almost a make-or-break one for me for the week, personally. I've had way too much on Makanah each-way here and whilst I'm tempted to lay a little off, I decide to let the majority of it run, and it's more a sigh of relief than satisfaction when he finishes fifth. Thank the Lord for extra places, that's what I say.
A round of applause to whoever does the walk-in music at York, here. Normally, you get some generic nonsense as the winner comes back in - We Are The Champions, Simply The Best, you know the sort - but as Bergerac comes back in, we get the accordion-tinged theme to the 80s detective show that he's named after. This is very pleasing to my ears, and once again, York leads the way whilst others flail in their wake. Keep it up!
Neither Chaldean winning the Acomb nor Deauville Legend the Voltigeur are any good to us, but now it's the Juddmonte and Baaeed time. Will the heavy hitters come out to play? Not with us, as it turns out, but they are around and next door take a £5k bet at 2-5. There's barely a moments worry for the punter as Baaeed saunters clear, quashing any stamina doubts in the process, for a very easy win. He's some horse, and who is to say he won't get the Arc trip? I look forward to Derek Thompson referring to Jim Crowley as "Baaeed's jockey" for the next decade.
Results get no better as the well-backed Alfred Boucher wins the next, before Designer at 14-1 provides some respite. Not for long though, as the 7-2 jolly Streets Of Gold wins the last, and the punters are on top after day one.
We're in the usual digs at Sherburn for the week, and tonight is curry night. Great idea at the time, but not when you wake with heartburn at three in the morning and you've left the Gaviscon at home.
Thursday. I don't fancy much on the card, so when my friend James does his Placepot for the day I ask if I can throw a score in, just for something to watch. He's more than happy to let me, and we've 108 pound lines running for us.
When the 25 poke Swingalong wins the first, followed home by 20-1 rag Queen Me and 11-1 Matilda I assume that's my £20 up in smoke. But no! James, in his wisdom, has put Queen Me in, and with 95% of the Placepots dead and buried after that result, the day has suddenly become a bit more interesting.
It is very noticeable that the crowd is a small one today, much smaller than would usually be the case. It can't be the weather, which is again glorious, so we can only assume the train strike, on today, is having a major impact. So poor is the business that the results hardly matter, which is just as well, with the next three favourites all going in. Excitingly, we are still in the placepot after four legs though, and a four-figure payout looks likely if we can hit it.
When Time Lock goes clear with winner Haskoy in the next then I know we're going into the last leg with two chances. Sadly for us, one of the chances, XJ Rascal, is a non-runner, and that puts us on One Nation instead. Neither myself nor James likes One Nation. I do the sensible thing and lay One Nation for a place, as if it does go belly-up I'll at least have a consolation prize.
It's a good job I did, as neither One Nation nor Scholarship, our other selection, make any impression and the rollercoaster ride comes to an abrupt halt. The placepot pays over £2,700. I can hear the voice of my good lady in my head - "it's why I hate Placepots, there's always one leg lets you down, isn't there?" - but I've had my twenty quid's worth of fun out of the afternoon. Always tomorrow.
Friday comes and on the way to the Press Room I catch sight of Rob Speechley, another of the books, on the Champagne Lawn. Rob has a pitch at York but only uses it for the Ebor meeting, treating the week as something of a leisure week for himself and partner Vanessa. I'm invited for a glass of champagne ("£45 quid for a bottle of Moët? You're almost stealing it" - Rob) and feel it would be rude to turn him down. So rather than doing any work, I've rather been waylaid by Rob and as he refills my glass, I'm wondering whether the firm would really miss me this afternoon if I just stayed here and punted the day away? That question is answered very quickly as the boss walks past, sees the glass in my hand, mutters "press room my ar*e, get yourself on that joint" and walks off laughing.
Whereas Thursday's crowd was disappointing, Friday's exceeds our expectations. It's as if those that couldn't come yesterday have made up for it by coming today instead. I'm next to Paul Johnson today (although once he knew he'd be next to me, he wanted to move pretty quickly, it must be said. Maybe it's my deodorant?) so there should be a few laughs along the way, and on the other side I've got Phil and his wife Cheryl from the West Mids. They're lovely people too, and whilst I chat greyhounds with Phil (he stands at Monmore), Cheryl seems more interested in the "power salad" I've purloined from the press room. She's clearly after snaffling it. I tell her she can have one tomorrow, which seems to pacify her.
So we've got a crowd, can we get a result or two? Farhan is a good start, although Dark Jedi hitting the frame - one of those York horses they all latch on to every time it runs here; see also Copper Knight, Our Little Pony, Escobar, Dakota Gold - hardly helps matters.
Then the almost inevitable announcement that Trueshan is out of the Lonsdale Cup. We'd been betting for about five minutes before the announcement was made, so it wasn't a disaster in that sense as most people had still to bet, but the race has a different shape to it now. Next door, Paul had just taken a lump on it as well, which he has to give back. Someone's quick off the mark and has an £1100-£800 Coltrane with me, but that stays in the bag as Quickthorn takes off and doesn't see another rival.
Noble Style is no good in the next and suffice to say the good people of Yorkshire back their own Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe. The payout queue is a long one. We have to wait until the last and Point Lynas before we get a result, although the resultant 20-minute hiatus for the stewards enquiry after does not improve anyone's mood.
Ebor day comes around. I'm back on the Champagne Lawn early doors, although this time the boss is with me. Not before he's had to hire a tie, though. You don't get on the Champagne Lawn without a tie, but York are on hand to lend you one for a tenner deposit, which seems fair enough. Rob and I chat about our upcoming visit to Yarmouth's Eastern Festival, for which I'll be working for him on the first day, as his right-hand man is having his 40th birthday and has been barred from going anywhere near a racecourse by his missus. I suspect she has something planned, something that probably does not involve a day at Yarmouth Races.
The champagne puts me in a good mood for the afternoon and after making Cheryl's day by delivering her her salad (some women are easily pleased, it occurs to me) we get betting. It's a great crowd, here to enjoy themselves and the racing, and Alflaila gets plenty of them off to a good start. They play it up on Soulcombe and my float is much depleted. Then, disaster strikes...
Remember how, in the last article, a fellow bookmaker couldn't get his board to work just as the Stewards Cup betting got underway? Well, we've now got that, only worse. We realise, too late, that the bets are not coming through from our second pitch into the master book. This means the payout on the last could be even worse, as we can't see their book. The computers are not talking to one another, we can't change prices, and the whole thing is a catastrophe. However, we aren't the only ones. Other books are now having a similar problem, and I field a phone call from a book on the rails, asking me if I'm also having communication issues. It doesn't take a genius to work out that the wifi is suddenly struggling, and the signal is awful. This spells bad news for any books with multiple pitches on the track. People are rushing around trying to work out what their liabilities are, and whether they need to bet anything back. I'm basically on my own here, as Colin is trying to fix everything on the other joint, and whilst I'm not exactly panicking, I'm flat out trying to get everyone on.
The cavalry arrives in the shape of Kev Myles, himself a bookmaker but only at York on a day out. He comes to punch the bets in for me, and I'm so appreciative of the help.
The bets finally come through from race 2 about 45 minutes after it has finished. Luck is on our side, as their book has won £200. We say a silent prayer, thankful of the disaster that's been averted, and crack on with the Ebor.
When Frankie Dettori wins a big race you know full well there's going to be a long payout queue and Trawlerman is no exception, particularly as the Frankie fans were playing it up after Kinross's City Of York win half an hour earlier. It's still a reasonable result for us though, with best-backed Gaassee well beaten, later found to be lame.
It is noticeable how much trade drops off after the Ebor. This tends to happen most years, but it's very noticeable this time around. Again, there are train strikes on the day, which don't seem to have affected the size of the crowd but maybe some have to go early, as the rattlers are stopping running around 6pm. Miss your train and it could prove expensive, and many are deciding to be cautious about travel home.
Which is just as well, as neither Summerghand, who finally gets his head in front this year, nor Phantom Flight, sent off jolly for the lucky last, are any good to us and as at Goodwood, a winning favourite for the last means a happy crowd as they traipse out the exits. The York bagpiper is giving it his all, and "When The Saints Go Marching In" is going down a storm with the well-refreshed audience.
Where next? Well, Yarmouth, of course, and three of my favourite racing days of the year. See you on the coast...
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