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Monday Musings: Who’d be a handicapper?

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I suppose I could mention the Bryony Frost issue and her triumphant return to race riding with a big win in the Tingle Creek on Saturday at Sandown Park, writes Tony Stafford. Certain writers thought that victory was vindication of her situation vis a vis Robbie Dunne and his alleged bullying, swearing and whatever else from last week’s enquiry.

The situation, though, was rather like a jury of 12 men and women true having not agreed a trial verdict on a Friday night then going off to watch together private videos of everything the accused had done throughout his life over the weekend before reconvening on Monday morning. Not exactly the best example of natural justice maybe but, like Hollie and Rachael, Bryony is one of the racing public’s favourites and understandably and rightly so.

Equally, I could refer to Protektorat’s arrogant dismissal of former Gold Cup winner Native River in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree the same day, and again a woman rider, Bridget Andrews, doing the steering and presenting at the fences of brother-in-law Dan Skelton’s much-improved chaser. He now faces the prospect of challenging the Irish heavyweights in the Gold Cup next March.

You have to love the way Dan never, except in the most unavoidable situations, like multiple runners at different tracks, goes outside the family. Brother and Bridget’s husband Harry might not win the title again this year – with Brian Hughes taking it so seriously he is operating twice as fast as last season’s champion. He is however playing the sensible card and helping ensure his own longevity in the saddle by keeping it in the family.

I also loved the effort of the grey mare and proud mum of a two-year-old – “I was courted by a Derby winner don’t you know!”, says Snow Leopardess as she goes on the gallops every day. “I would show you a picture but I don’t have one on me. He’s a handsome chap, by Sir Percy, and it’s his birthday soon”.

I believe the youngster is rising three but could be corrected on that. The bold-jumping grey mare conceived and foaled during the 26 months between her successful trip over to France from Charlie Longsdon’s stable in 2017 and first run back at Newbury in late 2019.

On Saturday at Aintree she treated the Grand National fences with respect but total efficiency. It would have been an awful shame if the front-running performance clear of the field for much of the three miles and two furlongs would have resulted in defeat by a nose rather than victory by that margin over Hill Sixteen.

Lots to talk about, then, but instead I’m going to harp on about the sitting duck syndrome, brought upon domestic owners and trainers by the people whose mandate is to make handicap races a level playing field.

These well-paid officials continually err in several regards. Number one, letting Irish trainers take the mickey. Take the case of a horse who had previously raced in seven maiden and novice races and a single handicap before his owner-trainer, Ronan McNally, a notorious “touch” merchant, lined him up, cherry picking a Huntingdon 0-110 yesterday against ten unsuspecting locals.

The horse, a six-year-old, to tabulate his entire Rules career, had been successively 17th of 20 beaten 53 lengths (25/1); 10th of 20 beaten 64 lengths (50/1); 8th of 15 beaten 74 lengths (150/1); 11th of 20 beaten 63 lengths (200/1); 11th of 13, beaten 19 lengths (200/1); 16th of 18, beaten 33 lengths (50/1); and 10th of 13, beaten 19 lengths (150/1).

Just to make the job look right he was sixth of 20 in his first handicap hurdle at Down Royal, starting at 8/1. You could say that the money was down and he didn’t have a great run but if it was half down then, they went the whole hog on Vee Dancer yesterday.

Choosing a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle and therefore able to book leading claiming rider Kevin Brogan, such was the weight of money he started an improbable 2 to 1 on. It would not be accurate to say he was always going to win as he was on and off the bridle all the way, but he won comfortably by three lengths in the end.

My complaint is that horses like that coming from another racing authority should not be allowed to run in any handicap without achieving a minimum placing: getting at least in the first four let’s say. Watch out for another three or four wins in rapid fire fashion.

He had run off 90 in that Down Royal race and our hurdles handicapper probably thought he was safe letting in him on 10lb more, but these horses have stones not pounds in hand once the hand-brake is let off.

One of the cleverest UK trainers is undoubtedly Gary Moore and I think he has even outsmarted anything he’s done previously in handicaps with his training of ex-French six-year-old Naturally High. This gelding is not only the same age as Vee Dancer but was running in a Sandown handicap hurdle on Saturday off the identical mark of 100.

He duly bolted in, dismantling some progressive young hurdlers having shot the pre-race market to pieces too. He still started odds against but when you examine his life story and the part the UK handicappers played in it, I’m sure you will see my amazement is justified.

Runner-up at Sandown was another ex-Frenchman, the Roger Teal-trained Kamaxos who was conceding him 15lb. His French Flat race mark had been 32, which equates to 70, meaning a pretty routine 45lb difference.

I mentioned Naturally High had also been trained in France, and his last four runs there in 2018 had been two victories in April in a Chantilly conditions event and a Longchamp Listed. He went up in class for his next run but finished 15th of 16 as a 16/1 shot in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby), starting at much shorter odds than three of the four Aidan O’Brien candidates.

After his last run, fifth of six in a Group 2, he was allotted a mark of 47, which he still holds and which translates to 103. That makes him 33lb superior to Kamaxos from whom he was receiving 15lb on Saturday. He arrived at 100 having strolled home in his first handicap at Lingfield running off 88.

How that 88 mark was arrived at beggars belief. Normally horses are required to complete the course three times to be allotted a mark, but first time Naturally High unseated Jamie Moore before running twice more a long way out of the money. He was allowed in on that sketchy evidence but then having won the first time off a gift rating, allowing him in again off 100 was naïve in the extreme. Basically he started 15lb lower over jumps than the French figure when it should be nearer 45 or 50lb the other way!

I’ve no gripe at all with Gary Moore who had a big job to bring back to life a horse that had been bought for €120,000 at the end of 2018. Those two big wins might have started to get certain people somewhere near level with that investment because there is no doubt the money has been well and truly down both times.

It’s hard to see what can stop the hat-trick, save some overdue retaliation by the two-mile hurdles handicapper. Does he have the bottle or will he treat Naturally High (France) and (UK) as two entirely different horses?

*

I’m feeling a little bereft with the breeding stock sales’ conclusion last week and over the weekend in France. High-class racehorses and well-bred mares have rarely been in such demand and for a while on Tuesday any female with the requisite number of limbs and the ability to conceive was almost guaranteed to go to at least six figures.

I do not intend identifying the young lady who relates to this little tale save to say her putative trips to the sales have been mentioned here recently. She had her eye on a Shadwell filly – there were 90 in the catalogue last week – in Wednesday’s sale and hoped to get it for a song as it hadn’t run.

I had suggested going on Thursday when all the big buyers had gone home and she could pick up something very cheaply but at the same time be prepared for its being modest enough. She persisted and when I checked that evening whether she had any luck, she said, “No, it went for 70 grand!”

Now I know people in her situation that might have claimed to have been the under-bidder, like the Irish trainer who made very public that distinction in regard to the sale of triple Champion Hurdle winner Istabraq.

I was changing planes one day in the US coming back from Keeneland sales when Timmy Hyde caught up with me and said: “You were the under-bidder for Istabraq weren’t you? I know you were, I was standing right behind you.

“Well that fe..ing D…. M…..is telling everyone he was!” Saudi Arabia’s loss was Ireland’s gain, although when I asked how much short my 36k bid had been, Timmy said: “J P told me to go to 100 grand!”

- TS

Becher Chase Pace Bias and Grand National Fence Experience Trends

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The Becher Chase is a race I look forward to each year. It’s a great spectacle over the Grand National fences, there is less stamina guesswork than we have to do ahead of the Grand National itself and there are some clear pace and trend pointers, which I'll showcase below.

Becher Chase Pace Bias

Not all races run at Aintree over 3m2f are run over the Grand National course but many are, especially the bigger field races.

Not the biggest of samples but we see some very strong trends in this pace data. The win data isn’t completely reliable given the sample size but still we see a strong win percentage for front runners (10%) and the success rate gradually declines the further back in the field a horse is ridden until you get to held up, which has a win strike rate of just 3.76%.

Now in a sample size like this we need to pay a lot more attention to the place data as three to four times as many runners are contributing to the data set. The place data follows a very similar trend to the win data though with front runners once again coming out on top with a very tidy place percentage of 40%. There is a bit of a drop off between prominent and mid division at 26.17% and 20.48% respectively and then there is a similar drop off down to held up which has a place percentage of just 14.29%.

Front runners seem to enjoy far more of an advantage here than any other run style. Not only do the win and place stats back this up but front runners are also profitable to back blind, generating a Win PL of 3.5 and an EW PL of 10.5. Prominent racers are also profitable to back each way (EW PL of 7.67) but all other run styles are unprofitable to follow, again supporting the case that you want to be as close to the pace as possible here.

When you spot a pace bias like this it can be tempting to think you should only back those that race front rank but that’s not the case. Almost half of the winners in this sample have raced in mid division or the rear, but those run styles have provided many more runners and therefore many more opportunities. So whilst it is an advantage to be on the pace here, it’s by no means impossible to make up ground from the back.

Previous Grand National Fence Experience In The Becher

A previous run over the Grand National fences, particularly a good one, seems to be extremely important in this race.

An amazing 10 of the last 11 winners of the Becher Chase had previous experience over the Grand National course. Add to that the fact that 26 of the last 33 runners to finish in the first 3 in this had also previously run over the National fences and we see a very strong bias towards those who are in some shape or form proven over these obstacles.

So here we see an even stronger trend than the pace bias and in most years the winning tricast will be made up of runners that have previous experience here.

Becher Chase 2021 Preview

A very interesting race again this year with last year’s 1-2-3 all reopposing and taking on 19 other contenders.

The first thing I want to examine is previous course form, and I’ll be using Instant Expert to assist me.

Note that two of the runners (the David Pipe pair at the bottom of the weights) don’t appear in Instant Expert as they have both exclusively raced abroad to date. The pair are well out of the handicap and are the complete outsiders so it shouldn’t make much difference to exclude them anyway.

The course info is what I’m really after above but it’s worth remembering that this is for Aintree in general, not necessarily the Grand National course. These are the runners that have previously run over these fences and their form figures recorded here.

Mac Tottie 1
Kimberlite Candy 22PU
Chris’s Dream UR
Vieux Lion Rouge 7167920951F
Hogan’s Height 106
Le Breuil 73
Tout Est Permis PU
Lord Du Mesnil 9PU
Via Dolorosa 4
Didero Vallis 58

Now obviously a runner without previous National fence experience CAN win this race, and it seems this year more than ever there are some excellent contenders without that experience, but with a couple of bookies paying as many as 7 places on each way bets I’d rather be taking an each way price about one of the above.

So what about the pace for this race? Here is the pace map.

We know that front runners, and to a lesser degree prominent racers, can be favoured here even over the longer distances and with a pretty steady early gallop likely this probably won’t be the stamina test it could be and those that are patiently ridden could be at a disadvantage.

Lord Du Mesnil looks to be the main pace angle with Cobolobo and Via Dolorosa likely to track that runner. El Paso Wood could race prominently too based on his form in France but it’s difficult to predict given he now races for new connections.

You almost certainly don’t want to be in the rear of this field so Chris’s Dream, Domaine De L’Isle, Mighty Thunder and Achille could be amongst those most inconvenienced.

Now looking at the runners, the trio that filled the places last year seems a good place to start. Vieux Lion Rouge bounced back to form in this last year with a 24 length win, taking advantage of a declining handicap mark. Much of his best form is on very testing ground so it’s difficult to read much into an 18.5 length defeat on good ground over just less than 3 miles on seasonal reappearance with this clearly the target. He’s only 5lbs higher this time around so is impossible to rule out.

Kimberlite Candy followed him home and was runner up in the race for a second year running. The ground was probably a bit fast for him in the Grand National, which was his next start and a poor effort but he does need to prove his wellbeing here. He’ll appreciate any rain on Saturday but there are more likely winners in the field.

Le Breuil was third last year and he continues to frustrate. He’s difficult to catch right and ran very poorly on reappearance, plus he’s 4lbs out of the handicap. These fences have a habit of sparking life back into out of form runners and they’ll certainly need to here.

It’s no surprise to see Mac Tottie near the head of the betting after winning over these fences last time out. That victory came in the Grand Sefton last month. A 7lb rise for that effort isn’t too much given he should improve for the step back up in trip but softening ground is a slight concern. He has won on soft before but he’s generally considered a horse that is better on a slightly sounder surface.

Chris’s Dream makes some appeal on form. He may not have completed on his only run over these fences but he was going well enough when unseating in the Grand National and he had gone further than this trip when his race ended. He’s unlikely to be ideally placed in this though which is a concern given the likely pace setup.

Hogan’s Height and Tout Est Permis both have pieces of form to recommend them on but neither have the overall profiles to really appeal. Via Dolorosa ran well here last time behind Mac Tottie and he looked a bit of a natural over these obstacles. His stamina is a question mark though and he’s 6lbs out of the handicap.

Meanwhile Didero Vallis was disappointing on seasonal debut but he stays this far, the ground will be no problem and has has completed twice here, albeit well enough beaten on both occasions. If you can get the best of the each way terms he might offer a bit of value at a decent price (around 25/1).

The safest play though at what is still a fair price (7/1) might be Mac Tottie who is still on the up and perhaps he improved for the removal of the hood last time out. The step up in trip will suit and as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing he should go very well. Vieux Lion Rouge isn't a bad price at 12/1 given his record here, especially over trips shy of 4m which he doesn't seem to stay.

Of those without National fence experience Snow Leopardess looks an obvious one with pretty much everything in her favour. She should really appreciate this test but you never know if they’ll take to the fences until you’ve seen them.

Finding Profit in Novice and Handicap Chases

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Hello again! It’s obviously been a while since I last made a contribution here, writes Jon Shenton. These days balancing time is a bit of a struggle due to a change in circumstances. With the pandemic meaning I’m still working from home it’s been difficult to focus on writing after another laptop heavy session in the day job. However, rest assured that I have been keeping the racing cogs whirring during the quiet spell!

For this article, I’m going to have a quick canter around the UK chasing scene. Now we’re into the full swing of the National Hunt season it’s an apt time to focus upon the subject. Let's start with novice chases...

Novice Chase Races

Before rushing headlong into the nitty gritty, from personal experience I initially found the learning curve regarding the complex array of race types and classifications in our sport a tad perplexing (still do, at times!). For those who may be at a similar position here is a link to the BHA’s handy glossary which should assist in understanding what a novice is in the context of the sport.

Glossary of race types - The British Horseracing Authority

In fairness, you may still be non-the-wiser after reading that! Don’t overly worry if it doesn’t sink in, what follows will still be useful, I hope!

Let’s begin with a broad-brush check of the best performing Novice Chase trainers by A/E (Actual vs Expected, see this short article for an explanation). Data only includes SP’s up to and inclusive of 20/1. As stated previously that’s a personal choice and something that works for me, especially when trying to sort the wheat from the chaff. The data runs through to 16th November 2021.

 

 

The above table lays out performance in the Novice Chase division lock, stock, and barrel. It shows the top dozen trainers, sorted by A/E where they have had one hundred or more runners in this discipline during the period in question.

Immediately, Harry Fry reveals himself as about whom to sit up and take notice (and I’ll briefly return to him later). However, the eye is drawn to the powerful Dan Skelton stable, primarily due to the volume of runners in comparison to rival yards.

The Skelton 2020 vintage included progressive luminaries such as Shan Blue and Allmankind amongst others, underlining that this already high-profile operation is still in the ascendant. The class of ’21 has the headline acts of Third Time Lucki and My Drogo to name but two, both being sure to feature in debate across the land over the coming months.

When mentioning this article to one of my good friends, they pointed out that surmising that Skelton is strong at chasing is like giving insight that Lewis Hamilton might win a few grand prix races. In fairness, he probably has a point; however, in my defence, backing this up with hard data and establishing sub-angles / micros within is still valuable to hone understanding around when best to commit to a wager.

With that in mind, it’s of interest to understand how stables perform based on their horses experience level over the larger obstacles. I dare say that most of you will be familiar with data driven intel such as first-time out stats, or performance of first-time handicappers for example. However, data referencing first time over fences is less mainstream so there is always a potential edge in evaluation. Here is the Skelton record by number of previous chase runs for Novice runners.

 

 

The table clearly demonstrates that Skelton novice chasers are worth catching very early in their career over fences: the numbers are very strong for those first time up, as well as those with a single chase run to their names.

Arguably, third time chasers demand respect, too. Although it appears that the market has adjusted and has accounted for this - the first two runs evidently revealing the horses' ability secrets, resulting in a small loss to SP despite a 33% strike rate - the positive A/E figure still implies some betting value going forward.

However, solely focusing on first / second time chasers, and exploring just a little deeper through the prism of race distance seems a sensible next step. The table below illustrates exactly this.

 

 

Performance at the shorter end of the distance spectrum is undoubtedly excellent. A total of 29 victories from 67 for those travelling less than 2 miles 1 furlong is mightily impressive. I’ve also highlighted a small pocket of exemplar stats for those at three miles too: although cherry-picking in this way is not to everyone's tastes, it can be seen that the broader range of three miles to 3m 2 1/2f is a strong collective.

My personal betting approach has been modified over the last year or so in that I no longer back angles blindly and have become far more selective regarding when I wager. Ergo, I’m not going to recommend ploughing in purely based on these stats (it’s not the geegeez way anyway). Nevertheless, a first or second time Skelton chaser in a novice, particularly over shorter distances, gets a huge tick in the box and a place on the race shortlist.

Reverting back to Harry Fry, he’s at the top of the overall novice chase tree with a 32% strike rate and an A/E of 1.22, so it’d be remiss not to check-in quickly, especially as there is one very clear (and perhaps somewhat obvious) trait within the data. That is market sentiment, the table below clearly highlighting that a well-fancied Fry runner is generally a very noteworthy thing.

[Just a point of order here: the 5/1 or greater set includes all prices, not just those up to 20/1 as per the rest of the article]

 

 

A huge tick, then, for a Harry Fry novice chaser that is prominent in the betting lists.

Based on the data so far, it’s a pragmatic step to survey whether there is further value to be attained in the “first time over fences angle (in novices)”. The table below gives the view from 2016 onwards sorted, as usual, by A/E.

 

 

The sample sizes are low in general (compared to the earlier Skelton behemoth at least), though obviously that’s the general nature of the game with racing datasets.

The trick is to assess whether the numbers are driven by chance or whether there might be an underlying performance angle to evaluate. Being data driven punters, we have a clear inclination towards the latter! However, there are several rows in the above table that do need taking with a pinch of salt. Despite this, the stats regarding Nick Alexander, Brian Ellison and the still up-and-coming Olly Murphy merit respect and much deeper consideration (although I'm not going to delve further here today - feel free to do some work and share your discoveries in the comments below!).

That about covers the “best” trainers by A/E. And there is also merit in making a quick tour of the high profile, high volume stables to aid general awareness of the novice chase landscape. With that in mind, here are the 'first time in novice chase' stats for those yards that seem to have runners in every race.

 

 

It's not a huge surprise that our mate Dan Skelton has the most runners. However, it is interesting - to me at least - to note that the master of Seven Barrows, Nicky Henderson, has a marginally profitable record, with a third of his debut novice chase runners prevailing. With Best Odds Guaranteed and general offers (or exchange betting) there is likely to be some value on offer here.

At the other end of the profitability line, giving a wide berth to Evan Williams first time novice chasers seems a sensible general play: mental fortitude is required in spades to knowingly weigh in with a 4.4% strike rate and a moderate place record to boot.

The next table is an education on volume versus value through the Henderson data. It’s immutable that the strike rate in non-handicaps at over 37% is top-class. However, in such races it appears that there is a paucity of value (with a negative 20% ROI). I’d imagine smallish fields and an attraction for punters to a Hendo hotpot results in these often becoming heavily overbet. Conversely, a debutant chaser in a handicap appears to offer value despite the reduced strike rate (still a mighty 26%).

 

 

Handicap Chases

Originally, this was going to be a two-part article broadly split into a first submission on novices, with a sequel covering open company. However, researching both simultaneously there was time-relevant data that I wanted to share now as it’s especially pertinent to this time of year. What is lost in flow, I hope will be offset by good solid insight!

One variable that I often evaluate but seldom find any notable output from is consideration of the age of runners. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time panning for angle gold in this area: searching for snippets regarding weight-for-age, performance of the youngest horses in handicaps, and such like. Success has largely been limited, however I’m optimistic that there is something of at least some interest here. The following table shows performance by age in handicap chases using data from slightly earlier, 1st October 2015, to cover the full 2015-16 season. This data relates to and includes 20th November 2021.

 

 

Despite the small sample size, the four-year-old data are interesting (however, will park that for now).

Further exploration of the six-year-old information is the direction of travel I want to take. Whilst not being profitable as this level, I’m drawn to the c.2+% better strike rate than the other ages, better A/E and only a small loss to SP. Most importantly, though, perhaps is the chunky sample size of nearly seven thousand within which to delve more deeply.

In general terms horses tend to work their way up in trip throughout their careers. On that basis it’s a pragmatic step to inspect the 6yo performance by race distance. The theory being that they’ll outperform at either end of the distance spectrum: shorter distances as that’s where they’ll start their careers, unexposed to the handicapper, or longer trips where they are not fancied in the market due to their relative fledgling career.

 

 

The table can be broadly segmented into two. The green banded area represents short through to intermediate distances and the red box contains data for longer trips. There is more than an inference of better performance (in relative terms) over shorter distances, with strike rates, place rates, ROI, and A/E all consistently a tick or two above the longer counterpart info. I have ignored a small number of runners at beyond 3m 2.5f, incidentally.

Whilst this is not “angle” material per se, it’s an interesting backdrop to aid understanding of the outcome of a given handicap chase.

Taking these 6yo’s over the shorter/intermediate distances and evaluating by the length of time they’ve been off the track opens another potential door. As you might expect by now, there is a table below showing the data!

 

 

The obvious area of significance is within the green box: the aggregated numbers for this area are 496 runs, 109 wins (22.0%) and a 26% ROI, 1.27 A/E.

That pocket of enhanced performance in relation to horses having their first run between six months and a year since their last spin feels like valuable insight.

It may be speculation, but I’d posit that this age is typically of particular importance to an animal's chasing development. Absence may improve the level of capability / ability through maturity, schooling or another unknown change - wind surgery, for instance. Whatever the reason, that green box shows something worth knowing in my opinion!

Taking this one small step further, one of my favourite “against the market plays” is to back specific horses who endured a poor run last time out. Often the market overreacts which, coupled with a horse being off track for six months or more (still a potential against the market play as punters tend to like the assurance of a recent run), can be punting heaven.

Taking the 6yo chase handicappers after a layoff and evaluating whether they hit the frame last time out the below differentiation emerges.

 

 

There is a negligible variance in strike rates between the two datasets. However, A/E and ROI is much enhanced for the horses that failed to place in their last visit to the track.

In summary, keep a track on 6yo’s in chase handicaps, particularly if they’ve had a spell off the course and especially, for potential value, if they also underperformed last time out. I’ve checked and this does also apply to non-handicap chases, although to a much lesser extent.

The rationale of inclusion of handicap data in this article is that being that we’re now into the National Hunt season 'proper', and plenty of horses are hitting the track after a prolonged absence. Of the 496 runners in the off-track 6yo dataset, 415 of them relate to the months of October, November, and December. And of course, all these 6yo’s become 7yo’s in the new year. So, whilst the clock is ticking on 2021, this is something that will form a backbone of my chasing race evaluation in future seasons.

It won’t be so long until the next article, I promise! Until then, thanks as always for reading.

- JS

Geegeez Gold Upgrades: December 2021

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The final upgrades to Geegeez Gold for 2021 can be seen strutting their stuff in the video below... or for those who prefer words and pictures, I've outlined them on this page beneath the vid 👇

The headlines:

- Profiler gets charts!
- Profiler gets PRB!!
- Full Results get sexier sectional charts!!!
- Proximity Form is now a Racecard Options option!!!!

 

What's New in Geegeez Gold?

PRB on Profiler

Profiler has rapidly gained a sizable fan base, and hardly surprising as it readily cuts through the form to showcase optimal conditions for horses, trainers and sires - and even the odd jockey. This round of upgrades has a few treats for those Profiler fans, none bigger perhaps than the addition of PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) to the Profiler tables.

This new column, found on the right hand side, tells us how a horse (or trainer or jockey or sire) performed against the variable, and the sub-categories within it. For example, if you wanted to know how progeny of Frankel have fared by going, you can view that by win and each way percent, and now also via the PRB data.

 

A PRB of 0.50 equates to 50% of rivals beaten, in other words "we beat as many horses are we were beaten by", while 0.55 or better is a good performance and 0.45 or lower is a poor performance in general terms. With Frankel here, we'd expect him to go well and he does; but he does best away from soft or heavy turf. [The blue highlighted row is the going of the race in question and not really relevant to what I'm trying to illustrate].

PRB can be especially useful when the sample sizes are smaller, as every performance - be it a win, a place or a last placed finish - is awarded a score.

 

Charts on Profiler

Whoop! We've added charts to Profiler. You can view the data in line or bar format, and may select any of the variables within Profiler from a dropdown. Thereafter you can chart that variable against any of win strike rate, each way strike rate, win profit/loss, each way profit/loss, and of course, PRB.

Here's that going PRB in bar chart format:

 

And here is the line chart version:

 

There are controls on the line version, which include zooming in and out, and exporting to an image or csv file.

 

Also on Profiler...

We've also moved the Trainer, Jockey and Course variables to the bottom of the list. This is simply because they have so many rows that it can make scrolling down the Profiler page a little unwieldy. They're still present, of course, just a bit further down as a means of rendering the rest of the information more accessible.

 

Proximity Form: Racecard Options item

Proximity Form is a handy gauge of how well a horse ran based on the distance it was beaten. But, until now, users needed to select it via Full Form each time they logged in. Hereafter, it's simply a case of checking the box on your My Geegeez page:

 

The Px Form traffic lights will then automagically appear on the left hand side of your Full Form:

 

Full Result Sectional Chart Makeover

Finally, we've also deployed the same charting software we use on Profiler and Full Form for our sectional timing charts on full results. They look nice. 😊

 

Hovering over a runner name (or 'Par') at the bottom of the chart will highlight that line, making it easier to view the context. Hovering over a point on the chart will, as before, bring up a bunch of info about the horse at that point during the race.

 

Extra Racecard Filters

And finally, as an unadvertised bonus (!), we're also bringing you a couple of extra race filters on the racecards menu page. They are:

- A breakdown of National Hunt races by race code

 - A breakdown of race type by handicap or non-handicap (replacing handicap or all)

These filters should be online later this week... everything else is live right now. Hopefully there's something of interest for you in the above.

Matt

Newcastle Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias

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In this second article of a new series where I have been looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we travel up North (from where I'm writing, at least) to Newcastle, writes Dave Renham. Newcastle changed from a turf flat course to an all weather one in 2016, employing a Tapeta surface for the new project.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias
Kempton Park Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Lingfield Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Newcastle Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

 

Run style is connected with the position a horse takes up early in a race, usually within the first furlong. This early position can be really important over certain course and distance combinations as we have seen in many of my previous articles on the subject; and not just on the flat, but in National Hunt racing too.

Geegeez.co.uk has two key resources to help you investigate run style. In the Tools tab of Geegeez there is the Pace Analyser which looks solely at run style / pace, and you also have the Query Tool which can be used to investigate run style / pace along with other factors such as going, draw, trainer, class, etc. For all of these articles I use the Query Tool because, as previous noted, it can test more angles in combination with running style. Running style is often linked with the word pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.

The stats I am using for this piece are based on the site’s pace / run style data. For those of you unfamiliar with this data it is split into four sections, each of which has a numerical value. The highest is 4, which equates to horses that lead early, down to a value of 1, which is given to horses that are held up at, or near, the back of the field early. Horses that race prominently (just behind the leader) score 3, and horse that race mid pack / mid division are assigned a 2.

As with the previous article in this series I will be looking at individual distances - primarily the shorter ones - with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 17th May 2016, the first meeting on the Newcastle tapeta surface, up until 30th September 2021.

 

 

Newcastle 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We'll start with a look at the shortest trip. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures for Newcastle:

 

The 5f front running bias is a solid one, but not as strong as some other all-weather minimum distances. Also hold up horses, which struggled badly elsewhere, have been much more competitive here. This is probably down to the fact that Newcastle’s 5f is run on a straight track whereas others we have looked at are run round a bend.

The strike rate for front runners has been relatively consistent when splitting into groups of three years (2016-2018, and 2019-2021):

 

Front-running strike rates have been relatively consistent at between 15 and 16%, assuming field size has remained largely constant, which it has.

 

Onto market leaders next. Let me share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Newcastle with you across all running styles:

 

As with the previous favourite stats I have shared in this series, front running favourites fare exceptionally well, albeit in this case from a small sample size. Overall, favourites have struggled over this course and distance losing 18p in the £, while front running favourites would have yielded returns of 76p in every £1!

 

Newcastle 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Onto 6f handicaps now. The run style (pace) figures are as follows:

 

The overall stats again suggest a front running bias, but it is little less potent than it is over 5f. Having said that, front runners have a similar edge when you combine the win and placed stats (each way stats) for each grouping as the graph below shows:

 

One area where there is big difference in terms of front running performance comes when we look at field size. In smaller (8 to 10 runner) fields, those on the front have done much better than in bigger fields (11 to 14).

 

These stats are quite contrasting; it may be down to the fact that hold up horses (which make up comfortably the bigger run style section) are much more competitive than is usual over 6f. Bigger fields means more hold up horses, of which only one needs to come through to win. To offer more confidence in these findings, the front running win and placed stats (each way) correlate with the win percentages as this graph below shows:

 

Looking at the fate of favourites over six furlongs at Newcastle and I'll start with their performance across all running styles:

 

This is the first time we have not seen an edge for front running favourites. That might be down to the relatively small sample of 25 runners; and we do get a more familiar picture if we combine the top three in the betting when looking across all running styles:

 

Front runners from the top three in the betting have re-established a significant advantage. Indeed, if you had access to a crystal ball pre-race, knowing a) who was going to lead early and b) if those leaders would be in the top 3 of the betting at the off, you would have made a profit of 61p for every £1 wagered. Sadly, it's not always the easy to discern (though, naturally, the tools on geegeez give you a far better chance than Joe Punter).

All in all, front runners remain the most interesting group in 6f handicaps at Newcastle from a run style perspective.

 

Newcastle 7 furlong Run Style Bias

The 7f trip is also run on a straight course and here are the run style splits:

 

We are now edging towards parity in terms of run style win performance with a relatively even set of figures. Horses that race mid division have the poorest record, but hold up horses are now almost on par with front runners in terms of SR% and A/E values.

Interestingly though, front running favourites conform to the ‘usual model’ of easily outperforming their counterparts as the table below illustrates:

 

A 45p in the £ profit could have been achieved by backing all favourites that took the early lead. Interestingly, favourites that were held up also would have made a small profit of 6p in the £, though their win strike rate has been notably lower than the trailblazers.

In conclusion 7f at Newcastle is not a combination where a run style / pace edge is easy to find.

 

Newcastle 1 mile Run Style Bias

This is the longest distance where horses race on the straight track at Newcastle. Here are the figures:

 

In contrast to what we've seen so far, though perhaps hinted at by the 'changing of the guard' seven-furlong range, front runners struggle over this mile trip, whereas hold up horses actually perform best. Indeed if you had backed all 1114 hold up runners you would have actually made a starting price profit which is impressive. Let's see if we can find any angles where the hold up run style bias strengthens.

One area where hold up horses do seem to have a stronger edge is when the field size gets close to or up to maximum. 14 runners is the ceiling, and if we look at 13 or 14 runner handicaps the hold up bias strengthens. First a comparison of the SR%s.

 

Hold up horses have roughly double the strike rate of the other three pace categories. Their A/E [market performance] values correlate perfectly too:

 

This is a very impressive A/E value of 1.21 for hold up horses in bigger field mile handicaps at Newcastle. The other three run style categories labour at between 0.56 and 0.60, where 1.0 is a par score.

In terms of market position, hold up horses that were in the top three in the betting perform well: of the 289 runners, 68 won equating to a decent strike rate of 23.5% (A/E 1.14; IV 2.70).

Compare this to hold up horses ranked 4th or lower in the market and the strike rate collapses to 5.82% (48 wins from 825 runners), while A/E value drops to 0.93 and IV drops markedly to 0.67.

As far as favourites go, let me compare the performance of each specific run style.

 

Hold up horses that start favourite perform well but they been marginally out-performed by prominent racing favourites. What is interesting is the dreadful record of front running favourites, albeit from a small sample, with just a single winner from 27 to attempt to make all.

So the mile trip definitely favours hold up horses; keep an eye out for maximum or near maximum sized fields which seems to strengthen the bias.

 

Newcastle 1 mile 2 furlongs Run Style Bias

This is the first distance where the horses race on the round course.

 

In truth, I had expected a more come from behind profile to be effective at this course/distance combination. However, prominent racers have fared best and relatively comfortably best at that.

 

Newcastle 1 mile 4 furlongs Run Style Bias

Finally a look at the 1½ mile trip:

 

Prominent racers again have the best of it and that close-to-but-not-on-the-speed run style looks the preferred approach on the turning track in 8+ runner 10-12 furlong handicaps.

Newcastle Run Style Bias Conclusions

Over five furlongs front runners have a very decent edge and they also fare best over 6f. However, over 7f the front running edge has all but disappeared, while hold up horses have the call in mile races. Finally, over the longer distances of 1m2f and 1m 4f, run on the round course, it is prominent racers who have an overall advantage.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Of Hughie’s Fighting Fifty-Fourth…

/in /by

They could have done a better job of it. After all, the two ITV racing presenters, Ed Chamberlin and Francesca Cumani, on Saturday sitting in their studio at Newbury and principally watching the Ladbrokes (morally the Hennessy) Trophy Chase did have some high-grade professional help, writes Tony Stafford.

You would have thought Ruby Walsh, normally the best race reader among television pundits who knows exactly where every rider and horse are throughout every race, jumps or flat, and Sir Anthony McCoy would have known better.

Their preamble to the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle at snowy, windy Newcastle was restricted by its proximity to Newbury’s feature, but A P found plenty of time to laud former Champion Hurdler Epatante and, after the thrilling finish, praise Nicky Henderson for getting her back in top shape.

It was a fan club all round rather than an objective appraisal and they got half their wish, Epatante clinging on for a share of the £88k combined first and second prizes. I’ll come to her co-star in a moment, after saying there was plenty of mention in the short time available beforehand for Paul Nicholls’ second favourite Monmiral, evergreen Sceau Royal, and the striking grey, Silver Streak.

One name missing from their deliberations was that of Not So Sleepy, making his return to jumping following an unplaced effort at Aintree after a much better fifth in last year’s Champion Hurdle, two places and just over three lengths behind Epatante but ahead of Silver Streak.

As such, these were the first three home-trained finishers in Honeysuckle’s first Champion Hurdle and, Buzz apart if he takes the shorter route, there isn’t too much around that will obviously subvert their position come March. Neither, on the evidence of yesterday’s outstanding Hatton’s Grace hat-trick by the Champion, will the now 13-race unbeaten record for the mare be challenged seriously any day soon.

Saturday’s partisan attitude would be understandable if Epatante was still being considered as having a chance to avenge her defeat, but it is routine enough for serious Champion Hurdle contenders to begin their season at Newcastle. Nicky Henderson has achieved more mind-boggling feats of a revivalist nature than this. She really must be the apple of A P’s eye. It certainly sounded it.

Now seven years of age, J P McManus’ mare is the veteran of 14 races and nine victories, the first two coming from three runs as a three-year-old in AQPS Flat races in her native France.

Not So Sleepy has also won nine races, four on the Flat and five over hurdles for owner-breeder Lady Blyth and trainer Hughie Morrison. He is rising double digits in age, a factor that never phases Morrison who can always point to the victory of his ten-year-old gelding Alcazar in the 2005 Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp, a race in which the second and third home were respectively six years and seven his junior.

Not So Sleepy has had an unusual as well as a lengthy career for a high-class dual performer. He won first time out in October of 2014 as a juvenile over a mile and half a furlong at Nottingham. First time out at three, he was the narrow winner of Chester’s Dee Stakes, a Listed race but perhaps one long overdue a re-grading.

Successful before Not So Sleepy were Derby winners Oath (1999) and Kris Kin (2003), while since then, future Irish 2,000 Guineas and Breeders’ Cup winner Magical and the multiple Group 1-winning Circus Maximus (2019) have also won the race.

I was with the Oath team at the time and, forgive the after time, managed to get a nice price about Oath’s following up at Epsom from Simon Clare, Corals’ course rep at the time. If you think Not So Sleepy is long-lasting, then the same Mr Clare was presenting the prizes on behalf of Saturday’s sponsors to connections of Cloudy Glen who won the Ladbroke Trophy in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings. Simon hardly looks a day older and deserves congratulations for the way he has sailed serenely through all the mergers and takeovers that have been so prevalent in the world’s biggest betting organisations.

The Chester 2015 win for Not So Sleepy understandably brought a reaction from the handicapper and he started life in that sphere on 107. Equally unsurprisingly, wins proved elusive and it was not until his 17th career run, on Oaks Day 2017, more than two years later, that he won a ten-furlong handicap off 98 under Adam Kirby.

Another 18 months were destined to pass with continued struggle meaning that not until January 19th 2019, after he had run 32 times, did Morrison experiment with hurdles. Sleepy ran three times, fourth running free at Kempton, then winning unchallenged at Wincanton before proving much too exuberant on a return to the West Country track where he finished a well beaten fifth of eight.

Back on the Flat and still with a mark in the 90’s, that summer he had a programme of six runs culminating with an excellent fourth of 30 to Stratum in the Cesarewitch. Here is where the Morrison imagination stepped in. Clearly believing a hurdles mark of 122 would be manageable given the jumping and the tearaway tendencies could be overcome, Morrison lined up an Ascot handicap that November. He bolted in and, a month later and raised just 5lb, he ran away with the £85k to the winner Ladbroke Hurdle back at Ascot on only his fifth jumping appearance.

Not So Sleepy was as a result one of the favourites for that season’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but after a couple of false starts he found himself on the wide outside of the massive field and was hampered at the start, losing all chance. His 15th of 24 was disappointing but not enough to dissuade connections of a Champion Hurdle challenge. This soon fizzled out as Epatante strode home up the hill to a popular success.

Back on the Flat he polished off a little race over a mile and a half in late summer at Pontefract under Graham Lee, the prelude to another fourth place in the Cesarewitch, as Willie Mullins completed a hat-trick in the great Autumn staying race.

That was the ideal preparation for another jumps campaign. Unfortunately in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle he set off in front but unseated Johnny Burke at the first hurdle. Chastened, Hughie and Lady Blyth sent him to more familiar surroundings of Ascot where he delivered win number two in the Ladbroke.

This time, it was doubly satisfying as Buzz, a horse Hughie had nurtured (I used that word about their relationship last week and I still like the sound of it!) through his early career but had been whisked off by connections to Nicky Henderson for jumping, could get no nearer than second.

Buzz, two years his junior, was well ahead of Not So Sleepy later on when second at Aintree and he has since won the Cesarewitch, denying Mullins a fourth consecutive win in the race by beating Burning Victory and then the Coral Hurdle this month.

Although only fifth in the Champion Hurdle of 2021, Not So Sleepy far exceeded his handicap mark. At the time he was 7lb clear lowest in the entire field on 149, raised briefly to 155 before Aintree but again down to 152 for Saturday.

Again in a big race, he improved on anything he had done before. Epatante had been dropped to 154 after last season’s Champion Hurdle, but she received 7lb from the geldings on Saturday. Sceau Royal, another length and a half back in third and fourth-placed Silver Streak were both on 158 while the disappointing Monmiral is rated 153.

After Sceau Royal the gaps were six and a half and then eight and a half lengths. It seems inevitable that Not So Sleepy should be raised to at least 158, so his highest-ever figure will have been achieved as a rising ten-year-old. Not many trainers could manage that!

As to the way the race evolved, the complete outsider Voix Du Reve, Not So Sleepy and the grey Silver Streak formed the leading trio all the way round with the others grouping behind them.

One acknowledgement of Not So Sleepy’s performance was forthcoming afterwards, one of the experts saying he had been in the lead group but still rallied at the end.

My contention is that had he bothered to jump either of the last two flights properly, he would probably have won outright, and the verve with which he battled back, running in between the other pair up the run-in after the second mistake, spoke volumes.

Tough doesn’t cover it and when you consider how most of the way round with his unusual head motion out to the right between the jumps, you got the feeling he was playing rather than racing in a championship race, that is doubly valid.

I don’t suppose as a ten-year-old he will end the trainer’s Champion Hurdle blank – and something would need to cause Honeysuckle to miss the race on yesterday’s showing. Yet as long ago as 2002, Marble Arch, another of his Ladbroke Hurdle winners the previous December, finished second to Hors La Loi in the Champion Hurdle with a very youthful Ruby Walsh in the saddle.

Hughie is on target for his usual tally of around 50 Flat wins but at a markedly highest-ever strike rate of 18%. It is widely accepted he can train anything - juveniles, champion sprinters, middle-distance stars or top stayers. Indeed if he hadn’t come up against a future Irish St Leger winner, Sonnyboyliston, running off a gift mark in the Ebor, he would have easily beaten his best prizemoney tally too.

And what of Not So Sleepy, a veteran of 54 races, yet sound as a pound and honest – if quirky – as the day is long? He no doubt will continue to thrill and entertain us hopefully for a year or two to come. Maybe after Newcastle A P and Ruby will give him a little more pre-race respect next time he turns up when they are on the telly!

- TS

How Newbury’s Pace Bias Changes Over Fences At Different Distances

/in , /by

Newbury and Newcastle host the top action this weekend with the more competitive racing seemingly coming from Newbury.

The ‘Ladbrokes Trophy Chase’ is the highlight on the card, run over 3m2f, and it will be very interesting to examine any potential course pace biases at that trip and compare them to shorter distances.

Newbury Chase Pace Bias Over Longer Distances

Here is the pace bias data for bigger field handicaps over 3m+ at Newbury.

Not a huge sample size but not a poor one either. As such the win data can be taken with a slight pinch of salt but that seems to suggest that the closer you are to the pace the better. Front runners and prominent racers score a 11.36% and 10.62% win percentage respectively. That compares extremely favourably with 5.17% and 2.92% for mid division and held up respectively.

Given the sample size more notice should be taken of the place data but that also follows a similar trend with front runners coming out best again 34.09% and the data tailing off the further back you go until you reach hold up performers. They have a place percentage of just 13.87% - a huge drop off from the performance of the other three run styles. 

Each way bets on front runners and prominent runners are both profitable to back win and place, producing EW PL of 1.5 and 4.5 respectively whilst as you’d expect, following runners that race in mid division or the rear has been unprofitable. It’s also worth noting that despite lesser representation, front runners and prominent racers win almost twice as many races as their patiently ridden counterparts (17 winners compared to 10 winners).

Overall Chase Bias At Newbury

So how does the above data compare with shorter trips at Newbury?

This shows the performance (place percentage) of front runners and prominent racers combined across various chase trips at Newbury in the same races as the earlier pace data. The distances are shown along the bottom, in furlongs. There is no really clear trend unfortunately.

You’d normally see a stronger early pace performance at shorter trips and that is the case here with 16f and 17f coming out best of all. It’s much poorer between 18f and 22f, and also over the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase distance of 26f, but it appears that over 24f (3m) there is a clear increase in the effectiveness of early pace here.

That’s not to say early pace isn’t effective over 3m2f here, in fact front runners still have the best win and place percentages over that trip, but it seems that racing in mid division is more effective over the extra distance than it is over the shorter distances (and 3m).

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Preview

With pace being analysed in this article we’ll of course want to note the pace map first.

Front runners do well over this course and distance but this might not be the race for them with a likely contested early speed. There are four fairly strong contenders to lead early in this, Remastered, One More Fleurie, Eklat De Rire and Cloth Cap, so this could setup for something ridden a little more patiently.

That doesn’t mean it will be ideal to be held up miles off the pace as despite looking a pretty fair course it’s clearly still not easy to make up plenty of ground here. So with that in mind the likes of Cloudy Glen, Kitty’s Light and The Hollow Ginge will need to run particularly well to get into this.

Ontheropes is likely to be a pretty warm order for Willie Mullins having won impressively last time out. He seems to have quite the engine and obviously the trainer has to be massively respected whenever he sends anything over but the majority of his form is on very testing ground so there is a slight unknown as regards to the ground. Potentially not one to get stuck into at a shortish price.

Eklat De Rire also has ground concerns in terms of being unproven and he’s also lacking big field form too which could count against him. He is also likely to sit very close to what will probably be a strong gallop. He’s one of a few here that could be anything but I’d prefer to have something a bit more ‘solid’ running for me in a race like this.

Fiddlerontheroof’s latest win has taken a knock since and he’s still got to prove himself over this far. There are certainly no stamina doubts about Enrilo who was first past the post but demoted to 3rd in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup Chase over 3m5f, a race that took place on good ground. He’s gone well fresh previously and should be able to sit a little way off the pace so he’s certainly one of those more solid contenders, for all he’s short enough in the early betting.

Around Enrilo in that bet365 Gold Cup were Potterman and unlucky loser Kitty's Light and they reoppose here. Despite the likelihood of a decent gallop here, Kitty’s Light might not be ideally placed as he is often very patiently ridden. Potterman on the other hand may be just about ideally placed and he seems to love good ground. He ran very well last time out and despite being 6lbs higher than when unseating in this last year he looks a good each way punt at around 14/1 with up to 7 places on offer with the bookies for this.

I also wouldn’t want to rule out Brave Eagle from getting into the places at a big price (25s general at time of writing). He was 8th in this two years ago off a 9lb higher mark when hampered twice and he ran very respectably after almost a year off last time out. He’ll be entitled to come on plenty for that and for anyone who can get on with the bookmakers with the better each way terms he’d be worth a small interest.

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias

/in /by

Welcome to the first article of a new series where I will be looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, writes Dave Renham. All weather racing is now a ‘staple’ of our winter racing diet and there will be plenty of betting opportunities, starting today, in the coming months for punters at all of the six British courses, as well as Dundalk which I'll not be covering. For this series of articles, I will also not investigate Southwell as they  changed the surface from fibresand to tapeta from 7th December 2021.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias
Kempton Park Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Lingfield Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Newcastle Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

 

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes early in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools menu tab. There is the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which can be used to undertake this type of research for yourself. Running style is often linked with pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.

The stats I am sharing here are based on the site’s pace / run style data. These data on Geegeez are split into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the score assigned to each section. The numbers are really helpful as you can drill down into them to help build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be.

Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

Chelmsford City Racecourse is the first all-weather track under the microscope. I will be looking at individual distances with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data have been taken from 1st January 2016 up until 30th September 2021, five years and nine months' worth.

 

Chelmsford 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We'll start with a look at the minimum trip where the race start is close to the bend (see image at the top of this post). Let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

 

These figures clearly illustrate that the advantage is to horses that have led, or disputed the lead, in Chelmsford 5f handicaps. Horses that have race mid-division or further back early have a relatively poor record, both in win terms and profitability. As the shortest race distance, 5f races allow the least amount of time for runners to make their challenge from the back. Hence at most courses, both all weather and turf and especially around a turn, there is a strong front-running bias.

The success of front runners has been fairly consistent as the graph below shows; here I have looked at the winning strike rates (SR%) of front runners split into two year groupings (2016-2018 and 2019 to Sept 30th 2021).

 

As you can see there has been a similar front running performance in terms of strike rate: marginally better between 2016 and 2018 but probably not statistically significant. The A/E values correlate in the same way:

 

Again these were slightly higher in the 2016 to 2018 period (1.69), compared with an A/E value of 1.57 over the past three years. One might expect that market edge to erode further in coming years but there still appears plenty of 'juice' for now.

The draw for front runners does not seem to make too much difference – interestingly it is not the very low drawn front runners who have secured the highest strike rate, it is those drawn 5 to 7. In truth though, individual stall data provide a relatively small sample size so we should not read too much into them.

It is also interesting to look at the performance of front runners in terms of their market rank (position in the betting).

 

As we can see, front runners who are favourites have won more than half of their races. In general, horses that are relatively unfancied (those 7th or higher in the betting market) have been unable to retain their early lead. This of course makes sense, but it shows that it is something we need to factor in if we are thinking about backing a potential front runner: race position is best when coupled with some kind of ability, as predicted by the betting markets!

While digging into market factors I noticed that front runners that were priced 5/1 or less won 24 times from 59 races. This equates to a strike rate over 40%. Not only that, a further 20 placed giving an impressive win & placed percentage figure of 74.6%.

Now you might be reading this thinking that OK, we’d expect this type of market bias. However, let me share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Chelmsford with you across all running styles:

 

Looking at this, do you want to be backing a favourite that is likely to be held up? Or even one that is projected to race mid-division? Naturally, we cannot 100% predict what run style a horse will show in any one race - and sometimes horses miss the break or adopt a surprising tactic - but most tend to conform to a favoured style which helps steer us in the right direction.

Finally in this 5f section I’d like to split the data down further by number of runners – specifically, races with 8 or 9 runners compared with races of 10 or more runners. Here are the relevant A/E value comparisons for each running style:

 

It seems that bigger fields give front runners a slightly stronger edge and hinders hold up horses even more.

 

Chelmsford 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Moving up a furlong to the second sprint trip of 6f at Chelmsford, where they have a longer run to the turn, let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

 

The front running bias is not as strong over this extra furlong but it remains fairly significant. As with five furlong handicaps, the nearer you are to the early pace the better.

The bias has remained relatively consistent since 2016 and the average SR% for front runners over the past two seasons has been 19% (slightly above the 6-year average). Draw wise, front runners are again able to win from low, middle or high – there is no clear draw/pace angle here.

Looking at market rank there is also a similar pattern to the 5f data. Front runners from the top three in the betting have provided 36 wins from 114 runners (SR 31.58%); the rest of the betting market has provided 14 wins from 187 (SR 7.49%). Comparing the A/E values we can see there is much more value in front runners who come from the top three in the betting:

 

It is rare to talk about shorter priced runners being ‘value’ but these front runners seem to be.

Looking again solely at the overall performance of favourites by run style, we can see that front running favourites outperform every other type of favourite in terms of run style:

 

The bias to front running favourites is far less potent than it was over 5f, but nonetheless if you were the owner of the jolly and your horse was sufficiently versatile, which run style would you like the jockey to try and deploy? It’s still a no brainer when front running favourites are 1.67 times more likely to win compared to held up favourites.

As I did earlier with the 5f data I am going to split the 6f data down by number of runners, comparing races of 8 or 9 runners with races of 10 or more runners. Here are the relevant A/E value comparisons for each running style:

 

We see a similar pattern here with 10+ runner races strengthening the front-running bias as well as making it harder for hold up horses to be successful.

In general, it's very good to see the 5f and 6f figures correlate so well.

 

Chelmsford 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Up to 7f now, races at which distance start in a chute and cover the entire back straight before turning for home, and the run style splits for this distance:

 

Surprisingly perhaps, given the longer run to the turn, the front running bias at Chelmsford is actually stronger over 7f than it is at 6f. This is unusual as at most courses the bias to race leaders diminishes as the distance increases, especially when the distance to a bend is greater. This stronger front running bias is difficult to explain; it might be because the 7f races start from the chute and after the initial jostling for an early position the horses on the early speed are able to slow things down a little once meeting the main part of the course. Sectional timing data could possibly help here; but Chelmsford is the only UK racetrack at which an official timekeeper is not permitted to record such information.

Having said all that, in 2021 front runners have actually really struggled, winning just 1 of 22 races. This is something we need to keep an eye on, but I am guessing (hoping perhaps!) it is simply an anomaly. One stat that backs up my theory is that the placed figures for front runners stands at 44.4% in 2021, which correlates almost perfectly with the overall 6-year front running place percentage of 44.9%.

Over 5f and 6f we saw a stronger front running bias in fields of 10 or more runners. Over 7f there seems little difference. The front running A/E values are 1.45 and 1.40 for 8-9 runners and 10+ runners respectively.

As far as the draw is concerned front runners have again had success regardless of stall position. That said, when the front runner has come from the inside stall (draw 1) they have been particularly successful winning 12 of 41 starts (SR 29.27%).

Now a look at front runners in terms of their market rank. Let’s see if the same pattern emerges that we’ve seen at the two shorter distances:

 

A slight outlier with front runners who were 6th favourite aside, the same general picture is painted. Front running favourites do extremely well and let us again review the performance of favourites in terms of their specific run style:

 

The message the numbers continue to hammer home is if you are backing the favourite in a Chelmsford sprint handicap, you really would like it to front run, and you certainly do not want it to be held up.

 

Chelmsford 1 Mile Run Style Bias

It is rare to see very strong front running biases at distances of a mile or more. Let’s see whether early leaders have an edge over Chelmsford's mile, which starts in a doglegged chute, and if so by how much:

 

As expected the front running bias is diminishing – you would still prefer to see your horse leading early than rather midfield or near the back, but run style becomes less of a determinant of success. I am not going to delve deeply into this trip because there is little utility, but I will share the record of the favourite combined with running style:

 

There is not the strong front running bias seen at other trips here but clearly favourites who lead or race close to the pace (prominent) early in the race are much better betting propositions than those who race mid pack or near/at the back. If you had happened to back all favourites that were held up or raced mid division you would have lost 30p in every £ wagered. If you had backed all favourites that raced prominently or led early you would have a tiny overall profit.

 

Chelmsford Racecourse Pace / Run Style Bias Conclusions

All in all Chelmsford has a strong run style bias across multiple distances with front runners having a clear edge. The 5f trip offers the strongest, closely followed by 7 furlongs and then 6f. This group as a collective can be used as a betting angle, and then overlaid with form considerations.

The bias is still evident over a mile but it is relatively modest.

Let me close with a graph that helps illustrate this neatly: it compares the A/E values for front runners / early leaders (4, blue bars) with those for hold up horses (1, orange bars) across the four distances. The disparity at the shorter trio of distances is stark, where over a mile the gap has been been all but closed.

 

- DR

Monday Musings: An APT Comparison?

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Last March, as Rachael Blackmore urged her mount in the Cheltenham Gold Cup to close on stablemate Minella Indo and Jack Kennedy up the hill after the last fence, she would have been excused for saying: “A Plus Tard” or “see you later” in the English version, writes Tony Stafford.

The comment might have been Lostintraslation for some – the much-fancied horse of that name pulled up two from home that day – but after last weekend when both latter horses won major races, the path appears set for a march to greatness for the Henry De Bromhead seven-year-old.

Lostintranslation’s easy win in Ascot’s Chanelle Pharma Chase signalled another pointer to the revival in form of the Tizzard stable – soon by all accounts to have son Joe’s name rather than dad Colin’s above the stable entrance. That effort, though, could not compare with the Irish-trained horse’s performance in running away with the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park.

Most enjoyable for British racegoers as the Irish won this coveted Haydock autumn feature for the first time, was that A Plus Tard carries the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the principal UK-owned breeder which every year produces top-class animals. With more than 100 mares and in excess of 110 in training every year, Flat racing is the bread and butter. Jumping is the winter release.

Under the careful management of Chris Richardson the stud has fuelled on the enthusiasm for jump racing of Patricia Thompson and her late husband David. The couple won the 1992 Grand National with last-minute buy Party Politics, trained by Nick Gaselee and ridden by Carl Llewellyn, and in recent years built up a select team of high-class jumpers in Ireland.

A class apart though is A Plus Tard and although only a seven-year-old he has just entered his fourth season as a steeplechaser, and still has only 12 races over fences (five wins, five seconds and two thirds) on his record.

Much of the talk before Saturday’s race surrounded the possibility that Bristol De Mai would equal the achievement of Kauto Star who won the Betfair four times in the first decade of the millennium with one unseated preventing an unblemished five-race record.

Bristol De Mai, trained for the last eight seasons by Nigel Twiston-Davies and, like Kauto Star, an early acquisition from France after precocious efforts over hurdles, has won three. Initially he beat in turn Gold Cup winners Cue Card and Native River. He was narrowly beaten in the race in 2019 to Lostintranslation before outstaying multiple Grade 1 winner Clan Des Obeaux last November.

As with those two multiple Betfair victors, A Plus Tard started in France. Whereas Kauto Star had already raced nine times (winning three) before his dramatic step up in form to win a four-year-old Graded hurdle at Auteuil when a 36-1 shot in late May, A Plus Tard never raced at that level. His moment came on his fifth and final start (and second win) when collecting a 40k to the winner 4yo handicap early in April 2018 there.

Like Kauto Star and Bristol De Mai before him A Plus Tard switched quickly to chasing, running as early as November of that year and finishing runner-up in a field of 13 at Gowran Park under Blackmore – the first of the 11 races in which they have combined.

Remarkably, three races on and less than four months after that initial association the now five-year-old ran away with the 20-runner Close Brothers Handicap Chase. The only horse of his age in the race, he did so giving weight and a 16-length thrashing to Grade 1 hurdle winner Tower Bridge with 18 other decent performers trailing far behind.

His next run brought defeat in third over three miles at Punchestown at the end of his busiest season with De Bromhead. He was restricted to only three races the next winter, sandwiching defeats on reappearance and when a close third behind Min in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham with a first Grade 1 triumph at Leopardstown over Christmas.

And last season was another cherry-picked campaign of just three races. Again Leopardstown provided the one win, another at Grade 1 level over Christmas but this time without Rachael who partnered instead Minella Indo, who fell before the race warmed up. Darragh O’Keeffe was the lucky man to step into her shoes. Back on A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup as chronicled at the start of the piece, second place to her stable-companion and other regular partner came as their rally up the hill was a little trop tard.

There is an uncanny symmetry about aspects of the early careers of Kauto Star and A Plus Tard. Both started in France and showed precocity. Certainly in the case of Kauto Star, he burned bright for many seasons. De Bromhead’s deliberate planning for his young improving star’s career offers hope that his will also be long-lasting

The Knockeen, County Waterford, trainer has run him sparingly and, with a horse of such talent, there is no need to go searching away beyond the top prizes. I would be surprised if he turned out more than four times, with Punchestown a possible after Cheltenham, especially if he wins the Gold Cup this time. Next will likely be the normal trip to Leopardstown for a Christmas hat-trick attempt.

Minella Indo, who comes from the parallel universe of Irish jumps talent, the point-to-point field, is the De Bromhead version of Paul Nicholls’ Denman. That great chaser was a contemporary of and in terms of merit almost exact counterpart of Kauto Star and he too came from the Irish pointing field.

Kauto Star was by 29 days the senior and in terms of their careers with Nicholls earned almost twice as much as his colleague and rival, collecting £2.2 million from 19 wins in 31 chases. Denman won 14 of 24 for £1.14 million

When Kauto Star won his first Betfair Chase as a six-year-old he was rated 173. Afterwards he even once touched as high as 190 but mostly was rated in his prime in the 180’s.

Although at seven a year older at the time of his first win in the race, A Plus Tard is rated 1lb lower at 172. It is worth reminding ourselves of the ease of his win, and on faster ground than is normal for the Betfair Chase.

Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille kept each other company for more than two-thirds of the race on Saturday before Royale Pagaille got the edge in that private battle, with A Plus Tard always tracking them going easily. He was sent to the front three out and, pulling away all the way home, the finishing margin of 22 lengths over Royal Pagaille could have been much greater had Rachael wished.

Remembering just how impressive Royal Pagaille (rated 163) had been in the Peter Marsh Chase over the same course and distance last January, it was salutary to see a similar disrespectful beating being handed out to him. The winner must be raised for the win although Kauto Star’s rating as he won successively his first Betfair, Tingle Creek (two miles) and the first of his five King Georges brought very little reaction from the handicapper.

There was definitely a hint of Kauto Star in the speed with which A Plus Tard disposed of his 2019 Close Brothers rivals at Cheltenham, and again as he cosied up to Royal Pagaille before asserting. This was an exceptional performance but there is still that stable-companion and last season’s Cheltenham defeat to avenge before we declare him the best of the bunch.

Rachael Blackmore also had to make a painful (at least it looked that way beforehand) choice between A Plus Tard and her 2021 Cheltenham Festival winner Bob Olinger when that horse also made his seasonal return at Gowran Park, again with Darragh O’Keeffe as the beneficiary.

Bob, the deeply-impressive unchallenged winner of last season’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Festival, was appearing for the first time since and enjoyed a nice school round to defeat useful yardstick Bacardys (Willie Mullins). This was the champion trainer’s first try at assessing the likely threat to his own best novice chasers later in the season. It might have dented his optimism a bit, but he usually pulls one out of the hat!

One Saturday winner who will offer some hope of a domestic success at the Festival is the Nicky Henderson-trained but Hughie Morrison nurtured and developed grey, Buzz, who followed his Cesarewitch success with another dominant effort in the Coral (to you and me Ascot) Hurdle.

While there is an intermediate distance race for the top-class chasers (the Ryanair) at the Festival, two and a half mile hurdlers are forced to drop back to the minimum for the Champion Hurdle or stretch to three miles and a bit for the Stayers. Otherwise they can wait for Aintree which does cater for them.

I think the level Aintree circuit would be perfect to utilise Buzz’s Flat-race speed and he would be meeting horses partly used up trying either of the possible Cheltenham options. But then, who can resist the lure of Cheltenham? Certainly not, it seems, James Stafford and his Thurloe Thoroughbreds syndicate.

Buzz races for the partners but, with a portion of the proceeds of their victories going to the Royal Marsden, Buzz will always have a feel-good factor going for him.

Never mind additionally that James did casual shifts for me ages ago at The Daily Telegraph and thereafter always greets me on the country’s racecourses as “Uncle Tone”. I can think of worse forms of address – indeed I’ve received a few in my time!

- TS

Haydock Pace Bias Over Marathon Trips On Good Ground

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Seven of the last nine renewals of the Betfair Chase have been run on ground that was at least soft and three of the last five years it has been heavy ground but a very dry spell this year means that we are likely to be racing on good ground on Saturday. This gives us a good opportunity to have a look at potential pace biases on better ground at Haydock.

Staying trips are the main focus at this meeting with three chases over 3m+ and also the Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle so these distances are where I will concentrate my efforts.

3m+ Chase Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

Unfortunately we have a pretty small sample size here courtesy of the fact that Haydock rarely gets extended dry spells but the data we do have suggests that this is a relatively fair course.

Races tend to be more even from a pace perspective over longer distances and that seems to be the case here with front running, racing in mid division and being held up all resulting in pretty similar place percentages. Front runners actually perform poorest of all in terms of placing with a place strike rate of 25% but being near the pace isn’t a complete disadvantage as prominent racers have comfortably the best win and place strike rates. The win percentage when racing prominently is an impressive 17.05% and the place percentage is 38.64%, well clear of the next best 27.66% for mid division.

Despite the small sample there does seem enough of a difference in the data to suggest that racing just off the pace is advantageous over longer trips around the Haydock chase course.

Given how close the data is for the three other run styles it doesn’t seem worth doing anything with this pace data other than simply marking up those that are likely to race prominently. 

The individual pace setup in each race will of course have an influence on this so we definitely shouldn’t blindly assume that prominent racers will be advantaged in every single race but more often than not they are likely to be seen to best effect here.

3m+ Hurdle Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

To be able to get more data into the sample I have included races run over 2m6f as well, a move that is unlikely to dilute the quality of the sample given the similarity in distance.

Again, still not a massive sample but we are seeing a fairly strong advantage towards those nearer the pace here.

Front runners have a place percentage of 29.03% and prominent racers have a place strike rate of 30.77%. There is little between the two but both compare very favourably with mid division and held up with those place percentages reading 22.08% and 20.20% respectively.

So both front runners and prominent racers have a similar record of reaching the frame, as do those racing in mid division and the rear, but there is a pretty big difference between the two pairs of running styles.

So once again, take into account the pace setup in each staying hurdle race at Haydock on decent ground but in most cases mark up those likely to race in front rank.

Stayers’ Handicap Chase Analysis

My preferred race to get involved in on this card would be the chase run at 12.40 over a distance of just over 3.5m. Even on good ground stamina will be at a premium.

Firstly, here is the pace map for this race:

It seems almost certain that Furius De Ciergues will go forward and if similar tactics to recent runs are used on the rest of the field he’s going to get a pretty easy time of it at the head of affairs. He’s an extremely consistent sort having finished in the first 4 on each of his last 13 starts over hurdles and fences and his latest 3rd has been pretty well advertised since with winner Strictlyadancer going in again comfortably next time out. He’s unbeaten in two runs beyond 3m2f and should be able to fill the places once again as a minimum, even if he is 2lbs out of the handicap.

There are four contenders likely to track the early pace and this quartet should be in the best place according to the previous pace data here. 

Speak Of The Devil is a consistent horse on good ground and he’s very much in form having gone close last time out. He could be suited by this step up in trip but he’s generally been running in weaker looking races than this. He does look a fair price though all things considered.

Captain Drake ran poorly last time out but that was off the back of a break and after a wind op so he did have excuses. He has good ground hurdle form but he seems best suited by softer conditions and he’s not the easiest to fancy here. Jersey Bean is another who didn’t run well last time out. On the best of his form he has more than a fair chance but he’s not the easiest to predict.

Defuture Is Bright looks a bit short in the betting based on this season’s form. He’s already had two runs and did improve from first run to second run but he was still 13 lengths behind Furius De Ciergues last time out and he needs to rediscover last season’s form.

Amateur is all about stamina and he’s been a better horse on his more recent starts after a wind op. If he’s fully fit for this he’s a major contender. Silva Eclipse has won here and finished 2nd a further four times but the majority of his best form is on heavy or soft so conditions could be livelier than ideal for him.

This perhaps isn’t the strongest race with several of these having questions to answer so I think I’d prefer to play Furius De Ciergues each way given he is proven over the distance and in the ground and he comes into this extremely likely to run his race which is more than can be said about most of these.

Solid Contender At Lingfield

One runner I have been monitoring for some time is Uther Pendragon who runs in the 11.35am at Lingfield. He’s certainly not the classiest, nor is he the easiest to win with (just 3 wins from 67 starts compared) but he does have a much better record of filling the frame (23 top 3 finishes from 67 starts) and he’s now looking very well handicapped.

He’s put in numerous decent efforts in relatively good races.

On the 22nd December he was a narrowly beaten 3rd over course and distance off an 8lb higher mark. The winner won 2 of his next 5 starts and the 4th won next time out too.

On 12th January he was 3rd again over this course and distance, beaten 1.5 lengths, in a race where the 2nd, 4th and 6th all won shortly after. Uther Pendragon was rated 9lbs higher in that race than he is now.

On 5th February he was a neck 2nd, again over course and distance, and the winner won next time out whilst the 3rd and 4th would both finish runner up shortly after. That run also came off a 9lb higher mark than his current rating.

Then on 18th April at Newbury over this 10f off the same mark again as previous runs, he was ‘only’ 7th, beaten 5 lengths, but the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all won within a couple of outings after. That was an extremely strong race and arguably the best example of Hot Form all season.

Uther Pendragon seemed to lose his form after that but enjoyed the return to Lingfield last time out, trying to make all but ending up in 3rd. That’s not his typical run style so he should benefit from being slightly more patiently ridden from a good draw in stall 2. If he tracks the pace and is in the same form as last time he should be able to at least place again so it will be interesting to see how the bookies price him up.

Your New Daily Email Format

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This week we're upgrading, energising and otherwise invigorating our daily email offering. If you've been receiving our daily digests to this point you'll have enjoyed one click access to all the latest news stories at around 11am each morning. Well, all that's about to change, in a good way!

From any day now, your email will arrive at 7am to allow consumption by the earlier birds in our community. And the content inside has expanded significantly. Below is a breakdown of how the emails will look, section by section.

The top section contains a grid of the day's races. Course names are clickable to view our course guide pages (packed with handy information for the track in question). The going is correct at the time of publication, though might change later in the day so be aware of that; and the race times are also all clickable to go straight to a particular event. Those highlighted in yellow are the free races of the day, accessible to all registered site users.

 

The next section will be familiar as it is what used to be contained within the daily bulletins - news, features and tips:

 

After that, we share an article from the back catalogue of featured long-form articles, often though not always directly relevant to the day's racing:

 

And, finally, there is a reference to the day's free Feature of the Day, a particular part of Geegeez Gold that is accessible to all free users on the day in question.

 

We've tried to include something for everyone, regardless of your time, experience or subscription level; and I'm personally very much looking forward to being able to access all of this directly from my inbox each morning. I hope you are, too!

Matt

Monday Musings: Skeltonham

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The 2021-22 jumps season – in a sort of foreplay since the end of April – began on Friday with three days’ intense action at Cheltenham, writes Tony Stafford.

The top five protagonists for the jump trainers’ championship, always supposing that Messrs Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead do not intrude on a private domestic issue, have positioned themselves nicely for imminent take-off.
At this stage Fergal O’Brien leads the way with 72 wins and £622,548. Paul Nicholls is second on £561,628 from 60 winners.

Dan Skelton, boosted by the weekend, is on £531,752 from a modest 39 wins to date; Donald McCain has £466,295 from 65 and Nicky Henderson, well up to scratch with 50 wins, is lagging a little with £397,633 in prizes.

A couple of seasons ago, Dan and Harry Skelton, emboldened by the lavish support of their father Nick, Olympic show jumping gold medallist and icon of his primary sport for the best part of half a century, would have been the numerical summer pacesetters in the title race.

The trio knew that having a base in Warwickshire worthy of housing the best of bloodstock, would need a trigger to attract owners in a sport where they were accustomed to turning to Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls if they wanted their horses trained in the UK. The Skeltons needed numbers and the summer, with the best horses out at grass, was the time to put them on the board.

Even some of those two perennial champions’ owners had already gravitated to the better prizemoney and overwhelming superiority, talent- and numerical-wise of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott over in Ireland. It appears that the latter’s gauche blunder in being seen grinning and brandishing his phone to the camera astride a fallen horse on his gallops has been forgiven if not forgotten. Memories are long – practicalities are instantaneous.

The Skelton team has now clearly made it to the big league as their principal five challengers over the weekend emphasised. Meanwhile the mid-summer void has been comfortably filled by Fergal O’Brien, formerly assistant to Nigel Twiston-Davies and more recently a tenant of his.

The building of a new yard a few miles away enabled the breakaway from Twiston-Davies and was the catalyst for a major step forward last season when he broke 100 winners for the first time.

After two 60’s in a row, the next two campaigns realised 49 and 63 before 104 at 18% and £796k prizemoney in 2020-21.
Such has been the forward momentum that as we enter winter, O’Brien leads both winner and money categories. That reflects a 60k cushion, but Nicholls, Skelton and Henderson all have more obvious candidates for the very big pots which always define the season’s champions.

Fergal’s stable strength has been nicely augmented by the addition of around 60 horses that the BHA’s favoured barrister, Graeme McPherson QC, has bequeathed (not exactly, but you know what I mean!) to them. McPherson was more the money man than the day-to-day trainer, and graceful withdrawal from the licensee position in favour of giving it official satellite yard status is bound to have beneficial results.

Already several former McPherson horses have shown improved form since the merger and if Fergal intends maintaining his fast pace – 11 wins in the last fortnight – he needs the extra ammunition.

He stepped in with the Listed bumper winner Bonttay on the Saturday of the meeting and as she and stable-companion Leading Theatre led a big field up the hill you could imagine both being high-class jumpers further down the line, an opinion the trainer upheld with a snatched comment: “two lovely fillies” as he walked by. The stable seems to have a bigger proportion of fillies than any of their main rivals, but that merely confirms assistant and partner Sally Randell’s assertion that “they are cheaper to buy”.

Success attracts owners, as the Skeltons illustrate, and now new owners are flocking to the softly spoken Fergal. They had a new owner with them at the sale after racing on Friday and he came away with lot 1, Poetic Music, a debut winner of a Market Rasen bumper for John Butler, at £60,000. “She was our number one at the sale too. I’m delighted we got her”, Sally said.

Two-horse races rarely capture the attention of the racegoer, but Friday’s two-and-a-half mile novice chase in which fencing newcomer My Drogo, a brilliant unbeaten hurdler last winter for Dan Skelton, was meeting Henry de Bromhead’s four-time chase winner Gin On Lime.

The younger Gin On Lime, a mare, had penalties which should have ensured My Drogo’s favouritism and so it proved, the home runner 4-9 with 7-4 against Gin On Lime.

Then at the second-last fence, when Skelton was manoeuvring his mount to challenge on the stands side, he hit the fence hard and could not maintain the partnership. Meanwhile on the inside, Gin On Lime also blundered but as she started to sink to the floor Rachael Blackmore did a passable impression of all those rodeo tricks she must have seen in cowboy films and simply stayed glued to the saddle.

The mare recovered her equilibrium with Blackmore soon back in charge and they set off to the final obstacle which Gin On Line crossed with no further problems. Blackmore had been the darling of the last spectator-limited Cheltenham Festival and here, with the aid of her main supporter De Bromhead, was revealing a new sphere of excellence.

If day one was a major setback for the brothers Skelton, on Saturday the wheel of fortune turned with another spectacular run by Third Time Lucki, the first domestic candidate for the Arkle Chase and a welcome one with all that talent waiting to reveal itself on the other side of the Irish Sea.

Maybe it was a job only half done, but two exaggerated celebrations of Harry Skelton as he crossed the line in front twice in succession yesterday showed how much it all means to win at the home of steeplechasing. First he was in splendid isolation on the always-talented Nube Negra in the Schloer Chase and then the long-time absentee West Cork got the better of Adagio and No Ordinary Joe after a battle up the hill in a high-standard Greatwood Hurdle.

Winning big handicap hurdles with horses after a layoff has been part of the Dan Skelton DNA for some time and West Cork was a prime candidate for such a project. Absent since his second in the Dovecote Hurdle in February last year behind Highway One O Two, he had been dropped 5lb for that Grade 2 second place from the 139 he had earned by his easy defeat of a Nicky Henderson 1/3 shot at Huntingdon.

That generosity by the handicapper was the final piece in the puzzle for the stable whereas top-weight Adagio, only a four-year-old, had been assessed to the hilt on his form of last winter. The third horse No Ordinary Joe pulled hard from the outset yet was still there with a big shout starting up the hill. If Nicky can get this unexposed type to settle better there is no limit to the potential of J P McManus’ gelding.

Nube Negra’s victory, emphatically pegging back one previous Queen Mother Chase winner in Politologue and ending the hitherto unbeaten course record of Put The Kettle On, the reigning champion but one who was never going yesterday, was deeply impressive.

It certainly was not lost on the bookmakers, who promoted him to near the top of this season’s market on the two-mile championship, nor on the younger Skelton, who not satisfied merely with standing in the saddle and pointing to the crowd as they crossed the line, then sated his elation with a rapid-fire first pump. He might find it harder to peg back Brian Hughes this winter, but as he says, he has some great horses to ride.

Some jockeys win a championship and simply want more. Harry Skelton will take another one if it comes, but he’s not going to do the running around riding out and touting for rides on other people’s horses. Why would he with animals of the ability of those Cheltenham mounts?
- TS

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias?

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Cheltenham is going to grab the headlines this weekend so that is where I’ll focus the bulk of my attention. I’ll be looking at pace once again but I’ll be doing it slightly differently this time around.

We all know that pace is extremely important in each race and pace biases exist in some form or another at most UK racecourses but what is often underestimated is relative pace bias. It’s all well and good saying a front runner will be suited by a particular course, but if the horse's recent form has been at a venue that is even more advantageous for front runners then it’s probably fairly likely the horse won’t run as well as the recent efforts (ignoring all other race factors of course).

So this week I’m going to look at how front runners perform at Cheltenham, relative to other racecourses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Hurdles?

Below you’ll see the performance of front runners, in handicap hurdles, at a variety of distances across UK and Irish racecourses. The data is sorted by Impact Value, which shows how often something is happening relative to the other possible outcomes.

There are several important things to consider from the above data.

Over the minimum distance 52 of the 63 tracks examined have a better IV than Cheltenham. That’s not to say front runners perform poorly at Cheltenham. An IV of 0.92 is fairly respectable (1 would be considered standard, anything above that is ‘positive’, anything above that is ‘negative’) but it’s fairly clear that it’s not as easy to make all at Cheltenham over very short distances as it is at other courses.

At intermediate trips front runners perform less well at Cheltenham. All of the metrics drop and the IV for front runners now stands at 0.64. It’s quite common to find the effectiveness of aggressive tactics decreases over longer trips but we now see just four tracks performing worse for front runners.

Over staying trips the IV for front runners is reduced once again, this time to just 0.36. Over these more extreme trips there is only one course that now has a worse IV for front runners and that is Kelso. There are 8 courses that have an IV of more than 2 so it’s quite feasible that a front runner that has performed well at one of those courses before running at Cheltenham is going to struggle to reproduce the same form around Cheltenham if adopting the same tactics once again (again, not taking into account all of the other race factors at play).

It’s possible that Cheltenham simply hosts more competitive races than other tracks which has a knock on effect as to the success rate of front runners but the racing isn’t becoming any less competitive here so it could be wise to expect front runners to struggle to run quite so well here over hurdles as they have done at other courses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Fences?

Now time to look at the same data set but this time over the larger obstacles.

Once again Cheltenham is pretty consistent in where it appears on the list for each distance but over fences front runners seem to perform much better than over hurdles.

Cheltenham is in the top 30% of performers out of these racecourses when it comes to front runner IV over minimum distances, scoring 2.08. It’s one of only 16 courses that has an IV of more than 2. The course also performs well when it comes to ROI (38.51%) and A/E (Actual v Expected) which is 1.74. Just like IV, 1 is considered standard or average for A/E with a score above 1 a good performance and a score below one a poorer performance.

Over the intermediate distances over fences Cheltenham has the exact same rank as over shorter distances but it’s worth noting that this time around the IV is down to 1.82. That’s still an excellent performance but obviously not quite as strong as it was over shorter.

Whilst Cheltenham holds the same rank again, it’s also worth noting that the courses and the order above and below change which is something to bear in mind when considering relative performance of front runners over these differing distances. Only six racecourses see a better front runner performance by IV for both of the distances examined so far.

Over marathon trips Cheltenham drops one place in terms of overall rank however the IV actually goes up, very slightly, to 1.83. Again the course sees a strong performance across all metrics for front runners. Only Hereford and Doncaster have stronger front runner performance across all three distance bands examined.

Overall it seems pretty clear that Cheltenham tends to favour front runners over fences more so than it does over hurdles. Over the smaller obstacles the front runner ‘advantage’ decreases as you go up in distance whereas over fences it seems to increase (slightly) the further you go.

Monday Musings: Breeders’ Cup Digest

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It has taken 362 runs from 126 individual horses and many thousands of motorway miles in their distinctive royal blue vans to earn the Charlie Appleby stable £4,827,062 in win and place money this year, writes Tony Stafford. Thus he enters the last seven weeks of 2021 with an unchallenged situation, guaranteeing his first trainers’ championship in the UK.

It took six horses on a single day <if you count UK time, which for the purposes of the starkness of the comparison, I am> walking the few hundred yards from the Del Mar international barn in the backstretch to the saddling area and back, to add £2,690,000 (55.7% of his entire UK endeavours) on November 6 alone.

Purists will point to the last on Friday at 7.30p.m. (daylight saving kicked in a week later in the US than the UK) and the two on Saturday, but in any event they were all comfortably within a 24-hour time-frame. The clocks went back in California at 2 a.m. yesterday earning the team from Moulton Paddocks a theoretical extra hour in bed. I doubt if any of them even bothered to turn in at all!

Six runners made the walk to potential equine immortality, two adorned with the pre-race red hood which denotes a trainer worries sufficiently about his horse’s temperament to defuse the potential problem of walking through the boisterous crowds that line the route to the saddling boxes.

The red-hooded pair were in Friday’s Juvenile Turf, Albahr, drawn two and next to stable-mate Modern Games in one, and on Saturday in the Mile, again on the Turf track, 2,000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas, drawn one with his better-fancied elder stable-companion Space Blues in three.

Connections of many of the other European contenders would have enjoyed the chance of running from those plum draws around the tightest of tight circuits. Conversely, in the aftermath, the ever-measured Appleby said: “When they do get drawn there on the inside, they potentially can have a much longer wait and therefore more time to get upset if that’s their character.

“We had no inkling that the horses would behave in this way and it is something we’ll have to address when we get home. Happily both horses, and riders Frankie Dettori and James Doyle, are fine. Frankie especially was lucky to be dragged from Albahr and it’s unfortunate that the stalls man who helped him, got an injury from the horse.”

From a dual assault on three races, only their runners in the Turf produced the full complement from the stalls, with seven-year-old Walton Street (Doyle) actually a shorter price at the departure than Buick’s mount, Yibir.

Both horses had been sent to North American on September 18 for their previous races. Walton Street was off first in Canada (10.35 p.m. UK time) for the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine which he won in a canter by almost six lengths.

Ten minutes later (10.45 p.m.) it was Yibir’s turn at Belmont Park and he comfortably put away six fellow three-year-olds in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational. This race as yet carries no official Grade category – it was merely a very valuable Conditions race – and Yabir beat a field including Bolshoi Ballet, who finished sixth on Saturday.

That made it more than £500k for the two September 18 races in ten minutes. Yibir’s strong finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf to peg back Broome, who had raced into what looked like an invincible lead in the straight, alone earned a second-best prize of the weekend of £1.5 million and change.

All three Godolphin winners won convincingly. Modern Games and Yibir both came wide under Buick from some way back and finished very strongly. Contrastingly, Space Blues was always close to the lead and held off a late challenge to win by half a length. He had been singled out by Appleby as the likeliest winner and in fulfilling that prophecy has earned a deserved place at stud after 11 career wins from 19 starts. As a son of Dubawi he will have every chance of making a success as a stallion.

The best Coolmore Ireland position was Broome’s second to Yibir on a day when Japan, the country, not the horse who was fourth to Yibir, posted (like London buses) its first two wins at the Breeders’ Cup. Broome all this year has worn the silks of M Matsushima, a partner in the five-year-old along with the Magnier, Tabor and Smith triumvirate. [Coolmore did record a score, via Wesley Ward, more of which anon]

A son of Australia, you would imagine Mr Matsushima might want to stand the horse in Japan one day. The racing fraternity will be euphoric after trainer Yashito Yahagi’s double that almost matched the exploits of Appleby and Buick. Japan is spectacularly the best-endowed racing authority in the world. While its industry traditionally has been inward-looking, these so-visible wins will provide more of their top owners and trainers with the confidence to target the biggest prizes all around the world.

Easily the more authoritative of the Japanese triumphs was the fast finish provided by Loves Only You in the Filly and Mare Turf race, extended this year to 1m3f to take account of the configuration of the Del Mar Turf course.

It hadn’t helped Audarya’s attempt at a second successive win after her victory over 9.5 furlongs at Keeneland last year. William Buick – guessing wrong for the only time over the two days – dropped her in from her widest draw, got across nicely and in good position on the rail only to run into an equine brick wall turning for home. In the circumstances, fifth and 40-odd grand would have been consolation for the Swinburn and Fanshawe families.

Love’s route could hardly have been worse, three wide all the way. She had the class to strike for the lead in the straight but was soon challenged and in the end could manage only fourth as Loves Only You brought her earnings within a UK Group 1 success of £5million. A five-year-old daughter of Deep Impact, she has a wonderful turn of foot.

No UK-based jockey has as strong an association with Japanese racing as Oisin Murphy, who spends as much of his winters – and collects as many billions of Yen – as he can riding over there. His association with Deirdre, now a seven-year-old on whom he won the 2019 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, was a comparable breakthrough to Saturday’s at the time.

Oisin was seen congratulating the Japanese rider Yuga Kawada straight after the Filly and Mare Turf and two hours later he joined the party in his own right, partnering Marche Lorraine, also a five-year-old, in the Distaff on the dirt track.

This race was supposed to be a private affair between some fast locals, but they went much too quickly, cancelling each other out and all giving in before the straight. Oisin could be seen halfway down the back going best, his red cap moving forward while his mare, a 50-1 shot, was still under restraint. That collapse up front meant he got the lead too soon and in the end it took a triple champion’s ability to keep her going for a short-head verdict.

I loved the day’s final race, the Classic, where Knicks Go beat Medina Spirit, and I also very much enjoyed Life Is Good, runaway winner of the Dirt Mile and Golden Pal, flying winner of the Turf Sprint, the last named for Coolmore America and Wesley Ward.

Also, I’ve never seen a horse running in a million plus dollar race but not for betting purposes. The former favourite too, Modern Games bolting up to a chorus of boos from the crowd who had been obliged to give back their tickets for refund as the horses waited to go. [Worse still, our esteemed editor had ‘singled’ Modern Games in the last leg of a Pick 4: his sole option re-routing to the non-winning favourite in the race!]

No boos from the Doncaster crowd on the final day of the 2021 turf season at Doncaster. John Butler’s Farhan, the 9-2 favourite for the season’s final big event, the November Handicap, ridden by Hollie Doyle, bolted up. The only piece of luck was that the three-year-old son of Zoffany squeezed in exactly as number 23 at the foot of the weights. The triumph (and landed gamble) was delivered with military precision by trainer and rider on probably Hollie’s last year not to be asked to ride at the Breeders’ Cup.

Butler has another important assignment this week. On Friday Poetic Music, an easy bumper winner on debut at Market Rasen, is lot number 1 at Tattersalls Cheltenham post-racing sale. A big filly, she looks the type to figure in black type juvenile fillies’ races for the rest of the season. So bid away – you will be making someone very happy!

One happy camper – and he always has winners when in the US for the Breeders’ Cup – was my already mentioned editor Matt Bisogno, who runs the Geegeez syndicates. Their mare Coquelicot was an easy winner at Chepstow last week, adding a first jumps success to three including a Listed in bumpers. The only way is up, Matt!

November Handicap Draw and Pace Bias Revealed

/in , /by

The flat turf season has it’s last hurrah of the year this weekend with the November Handicap the big betting race on Doncaster's card.

I recently went through straight course biases at Doncaster, the home of the November Handicap, and if you want to remind yourself of my findings ahead of this meeting you can click here to do so.

This article will be concentrating on the round course though and I’ll be previewing the November Handicap runners as well.

Doncaster Round Course Pace Bias For The November Handicap

The pace data at Doncaster for both the 10f distance and 12f distance are both very similar so I am going to combine them here so that this information can be used for other round course races, including the British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes on this card, run over 10f.

In big fields here (14 or more runners) it seems as though it is best of all to race prominently. The best win and place percentages are recorded for this run style (8.02% and 24.69% respectively).

The metrics for front runners give out some slightly contrasting data. The win percentage of 6.67% is bettered only by prominent racers however the place percentage of 13.33% is comfortably the worst performer. Given more data contributes to the place percentages it may seem wise to put more emphasis on this data.

The place percentage for mid division is only very marginally worse than that of prominent so it doesn’t seem to be any sort of disadvantage to follow this run style here however there is a drop off when it comes to hold up performers so it’s probably best to mark this run style down slightly when looking through each field unless the horse in question appears to have plenty in hand and/or there is a strong pace likely.

November Handicap Draw Bias

There wasn’t much variance in the data between distances as far as the pace bias at Doncaster on the round course was concerned but there does seem to be a slight shift when it comes to the draw bias at Doncaster so this time I will only be looking at the 12f distance over which the November Handicap is run.

The win data seems to suggest that ‘not low’ is best as 25 of the 30 wins have been scored by runners drawn either middle or high. The place percentage data is much closer and implies that middle is best of all with low and high both evenly matched - a far cry from the win data.

The PRB data could be most telling here given every runner contributes and this once again suggest middle is the best place to be. It’s not exactly a massive advantage as middle has a PRB of 0.53 compared to 0.49 for high and 0.48 for low, but there does certainly seem to be a bias towards those drawn in the middle.

It’s now time to look at the individual stall data to dig into this further.

Looking first at the place percentages, of the top fourteen stalls, the lowest six stalls are not particularly well represented (only 2 and 5 feature) although 2 does come out with the best over place percentage. In the bottom nine stalls for this metric, three of them are stall 4 or lower and three of them are stall 19 or higher. This is suggesting that the very lowest and very highest stalls could be a bit of a disadvantage which is why we’ve probably seen the middle stalls top most metrics in the low v middle v high comparison.

If you go through the individual PRB figures, nine of the top ten performers are stall 9 or above, which backs up the impression once again that despite low generally being perceived as the place to be around a bend, this probably isn’t the case here. Six of the worst eleven performers are stalls 8 or below.

This isn’t a huge sample so the PRB3 data is most reliable in giving us an overall idea of the best areas of the draw and this is represented in the line graph at the bottom of the image above.

In line with the rest of the data I have highlighted, the very best parts of the draw seem to be between stalls 9 and 18. The very best place to be drawn is probably in the mid to low teens to be precise.

These are only micro advantages though, stalls 2, 5, 7 and 8 all produce plenty of places over this course and distance so it’s not a case of ruling out the majority of the singles figures, or the draws that are 19+. If deciding between two or three runners on a shortlist it may be best to favour those drawn as central as possible though.

November Handicap Draw and Pace Combination

This heat map suggests that leading isn’t going to be a great tactic here, but it’s especially ineffective from a middle draw, which is statistically the place to be in general.

If leading isn’t a good run style for those drawn in the middle, what is? Prominent racers perform extremely well from middle draws, in fact they are seen to best effect of any draw/pace combination here. Mid division is next best for this draw followed by being held up.

If drawn low, there is very little difference in performance between being held up, racing in mid division or racing prominently.

It’s interesting to note that the best tactics for those drawn high are being held up. It’s certainly a case of the more patient ride the better for those drawn high, presumably those that aren’t dropped in suffer a particularly wide trip around the bend.

November Handicap 2021 Preview

As usual, I’d like to take a look at the pace map for this race first.

It looks like the pace is going to come from the very lowest and very highest stalls, courtesy of Whitehaven and Nuit St George. The latter was 3rd in this last year off a 6lb lower mark and a better draw so he could be up against it to reach the places this time around.

There are plenty who can lead in the centre but don’t necessarily habitually lead. It’s unlikely anything will be able to beat Whitehaven to the lead from stall 1 so the likes of Cardano, First Light, Skycutter and Wells Farhh Go should all be prominent as a minimum from their middle draws, and it’s worth noting that run style can be somewhat advantaged from that draw.

We know that the best run style for those drawn high tends to be held up so the main two from the high draws to make appeal on a draw and pace combination are Flyin Solo and Platinumcard, whilst Farhan and Prince Alex should also be considered.

A decent test at the trip seems likely given the softish ground (could be quite tacky with no rain in the more recent build up) and the presence of several pace angles.

It will need to be a decent pace to suit a few of the well fancied runners, notably Calling The Wind and East Asia. I liked Calling The Wind for the Cesarewitch apart from the draw and whilst he seemed to prove his speed for this trip two starts ago at Newbury, he’s gone up another 3lbs since then and might not be well enough handicapped over this trip in this company. East Asia bounced back to form with another win 10 days ago (his 4th of the season) and another 5lbs on his back might not be enough to stop him based on how he won that but he does need to translate all his progression this season to this trip (won on seasonal debut over 12f but off a 20lbs lower mark).

First Light has been the early favourite. He represents John Gosden who has won this race six times, including three wins since 2009. He’s one of three 3yos in this and the classic generation dominated this in the 90s and 00s (11 winners in that period) but they’ve managed just one win from 34 runners since 2009. This age group has the 5th worst place percentage since then, only 7yos have performed worse. It is the 4yos that have the clear best place percentage (23.26%) whilst 6yos are next best but some way off with just 17.5%. The best win percentage also belongs to 4yos.

The trainer name and record in this does seem to have had an effect on First Light’s odds. He won an Ascot handicap in July, a race that has worked out okay at best, and he followed that up with a very poor effort in the 14f listed race last time out. He wasn’t totally disgraced given his rating and the distance (he’d also been off for two months before) but he looks a poor favourite all things considered.

Sam Cooke was sent off just 7/2 for this race last year and is only 1lb higher this time around plus he arrives here in top form so he merits plenty of consideration. He seems to have finally learned to settle again in recent starts and he’s well drawn here but despite previously seeming suited to a soft surface, all his best form this season has coincided with faster ground so there are some questions to answer. It would be no surprise if he ran well but the ground has suddenly become a bit of an unknown for him.

Mr Curiosity could still be anything and he was backed last time out as if defeat was out of the question - and it was as he won by over 5 lengths. That was a poor race though over further and he's not guaranteed to be as well handicapped over this distance in better company. He's preferred to First Light at similar prices and would probably make a stronger favourite than that rival but opposable overall.

All of Global Storm’s best form has come at Newmarket so I’m happy enough to take him on, whilst I’ve always been a Rhythmic Intent fan and he was runner up in this last year but he threw in a bad performance last time out and his win in the Mallard Handicap has probably left him a bit high in the weights. He was behind Dark Jedi last time out over course and distance and that rival travelled like a dream that day only to get beaten late on by a well handicapped rival. He’s gone up 2lbs for that which makes life tougher but he could easily run into a place.

It will be interesting to see if first time blinkers can bring about a return to form for Deja, who is well handicapped on last season’s form but he’s been well off it this season.

The pair I am most interested in from a handicapping point of view (and this is a handicap after all) are Flyin’ Solo and Farhaan. Both are maybe drawn a little higher than ideal but have some good handicap form to their names and should still be open to more improvement.

Flyin’ Solo won one of the best handicaps of the season in April at Newbury over 10f - he’s subsequently a stone higher but the runner up has won off a stone higher mark and the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th have all won subsequently. He won a York handicap comfortably next time out on good to soft ground (the softest ground he has encountered) and having gone up 9lbs for that he’s looked just about in the grip of the handicapper since, albeit running pretty well in defeat.

Those runs might be better than they seem though.

At Windsor he was poorly placed as the race developed and the other five runners to finish in the first six all finished either 1st or 2nd shortly after suggesting it was a decent race. Then last time out he was 3rd in a race where the winner and 5th finished runner up next time and the 4th won shortly after. He picked up an injury in that race too, which is why he hasn’t been seen since.

The fact that he’s been gelded since suggests he could have more improvement left in the tank. This will be the softest ground he has encountered but his career best performance came on the softest ground he has run on so far and he’s by Roderic O’Connor whose offspring perform best from a place percentage perspective on either good to soft or soft ground. Flyin’ Solo’s sire was a heavy ground Group 1 winner himself.

Farhaan has been consistent this season, finishing runner up on four of his five starts this year. He excelled in soft ground on his final start as a 2yo but hasn’t had soft ground since and has probably run his two best races this season on the two races he’s had on good to soft ground. Those were a 2nd over 10f at Sandown, staying on well to be beaten just a neck, and also a 2nd in the Old Rowley Cup, generally one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. He's had a pretty light campaign, is very consistent and remains completely unexposed over this sort of test.

Summary

I can see both running very well and being amongst the places. Farhaan’s tendency to finish 2nd and the recent record of 3yos in this race is slightly off putting so preference would be for FLYIN' SOLO, representing 4yos who do so well in this. This being his first run since a slight injury is a bit of a question mark but he’s still had just 8 starts so should have plenty more left to give and there should be enough pace to carry him into the race. The fact that he comes here a fresh horse at the end of a long season could be what gives him the biggest edge.

East Asia and Calling The Wind should run well enough, possibly without being quick enough whilst Dark Jedi is another who should provide a decent run for each way punters. 

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