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The second of three articles requested by readers was on the subject of the Profiler tab, which we introduced to Geegeez Gold racecards this time last year. So, in this post, I'll show you how it works and outline some use cases, including how you can get around the inflexibility of 'today's race conditions'.
I've recorded a video for those who prefer to watch/listen, and below that is a written version of the same (or very similar content). These links will take you to any specific section you might be interested in.
Profiler is a racecard tab that breaks a horse's (or jockey's or trainer's or sire's) form down by a range of race condition variables. In the example image below for a horse called Raha, we can see the FILTERS block at the top, common with our Full Form tab, and, beneath that, Raha's Going performance profile. All other variables are closed in the image, to highlight what is available to users.
The cyan coloured row with red edges highlights today's race condition: in this case, the going for today's race is good to soft.
WHEN should I use Profiler?
Profiler undoubtedly works best when there is a good amount of evidence in the form book. Its value is in compartmentalising that evidence such that patterns are easily visible. As such, it is typically more useful when researching the profiles of jockeys and, in my opinion, especially trainers and sires.
The example below shows trainer Paul Midgley's profile for going, distance and class.
Ignoring the cyan rows we can immediately see that he is almost a pure trainer of five-furlong sprinters, and his record at that trip is some way above his record over longer. We can also see that his all-weather form is not as good as his turf form; and we can see that his Class 1 and 2 record is inferior to lower class races, in win and place percent terms at least.
This is a five furlong race, so we can use the 'Distance' filter in the top block to narrow our analysis down only to that range. And I've also selected 'Hcap' as that is where the majority of Midgley's horses ply their trade. Let's see how the figures look now, for five furlong handicaps:
His record on good to soft or faster turf and, contrary to earlier perception, in higher class races is excellent. Note that the strike rate in Class 2 is much lower but the ROI is positive, just.
Things to be wary of with Profiler
As with all data sets, including Query Tool results, we need to be sensible and challenge the output rather than blindly accept it because we've been seduced by the black figures in the P/L column. In the example above, it makes sense that a relatively unfashionable trainer like Paul Midgley would be profitable in better class 5f handicaps while only maintaining a moderate strike rate in such company: as bettors, we have to be comfortable with long losing runs if we wish to play 7% hit rate trainers; it's not for the faint hearted, or those whose bankroll may be short stacked!
Outlying percentages or profit figures should always be treated with deep scepticism. Why is this singular condition so profitable? Does it make sense that, for example, Midgley 5f handicappers would show a positive ROI on good to soft ground particularly? Answer: almost certainly not, but his 5f 'cap runners' form on all turf going have a broadly aligned place percentage. That's far more reliable in the round.
Which leads me on to my next point: place percentages are more reliable than win percentages. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is more reliable again and we'll look to add that to Profiler at some point before too long.
HOW Should I use Profiler?
So that's what Profiler is, how it works, and a couple of things we need to be careful about. But how should we use it? While you'll quite probably have your own ideas about utility, allow me to suggest a couple. These take the form of either knowing more about today's race, or creating shortlists/QT angles/tracker entries. Let's begin with the latter.
These profiles can only be generated when a horse has run plenty, so the list of better class all-age handicaps in the second post above is instructive; but you might also run a query in Query Tool to get a list of Class 5 all weather six-furlong handicaps, for example.
Trainer Profiles
We've already looked at this to some degree with Paul Midgley above. But what if we want to test a specific scenario not linked to today's race conditions? Let's say we wanted to examine the widely-held contention that Venetia Williams-trained runners go well in deep ground over marathon trips; but alas Venetia has no runners today. Then what?
First port of call is the search box on the racecards and, having identified the person (or horse) we wish to investigate, click the arrow by their name to see if there are any upcoming entries:
In this case, Venetia has an entry later in the week. So I click on that entry to go to the racecard for it:
Hmm, it's a shorter distance good ground novice race. Does that matter? Not necessarily. I go to the Profiler tab, RESET MY FILTERS (important!), and then select the TRAINER button and Venetia's runner:
In the above, I've also chosen handicaps only and 'All NH'.
Now, looking at win or place strike rates in the going section can be misleading for two reasons. Firstly, races on bottomless ground generally have fewer runners than races on 'terra firmer'. And secondly, as punters, we need to know what the money impact is, so that's the ROI column.
As it happens, in this case, the ROI figures align with the win/place strike rates in that they are more positive. ROI for heavy ground is NOT positive, but it is closer to break even than for the majority of other going categories. The same is true for longer distances in the main, though not extreme distances (beyond 3m4f), although samples are small.
But the fact that this race is at 2m2f and on good ground is a bit of an obstacle to what we want to achieve in looking at deep ground and longer distances. The solution? Go to the Full Form tab for Venetia and find a recent race in which she saddled a runner on heavy ground over a trip. Here's Profiler for Royale Pagaille's astonishing performance in the Peter Marsh in January:
Note that I've selected all NH handicaps on heavy ground. We can see that those parameters were unprofitable in the last five years (the 'Heavy' line in the Going column). But looking at longer trips, it is indeed the case that there might be a small bit of juice in Venetia's heavy ground handicappers over trips from two-and-three-quarter miles or so, and up.
Sadly, though not remotely surprisingly, changing the date range to the last two years - something you absolutely should do, compare longer-term with shorter-term time frames - reveals the edge has evaporated:
But I don't want to leave you without after all this, so one Miss Williams edge that remains is in small fields:
The above is the two-year view of Venetia Williams' heavy ground handicappers (chase and hurdles) in small fields (2-7 runners). In such races she's been consistently profitable over one, two and five years. I was curious as to why, and it looks like most of them go from the front (group 4), or close to the front (3) - thanks QT!
[The 'null' run is where the run style could not be deduced from the in running comment]
Sire Profiles
Sires can be profiled in the exact same way as trainers above; and, as with trainers (and jockeys and horses), we can create either tracker or QT Angle entries - with associated notes - to be alerted of our profiles.
Unexposed Runners
A second sire use case is when trying to understand more about a horse having its first run, or its first run under different conditions. We may not be able to know how that individual horse will perform but we can get an idea of what might happen based on all runners with at least a 50% common lineage.
Here's Our New Buddy, stepping up two furlongs to a mile and a half tonight on her second handicap start:
She's been beaten far enough - 12L, 11L, 9L - in her most recent three runs for many to overlook her chance. But should they be so dismissive? Let's find out:
In Profiler, I've selected Our New Buddy and SIRE (New Approach) and Flat/Handicap/Age (3)/Distance (1m4f).
The trip should be a positive and, at this distance, progeny of New Approach have done well in lower level handicaps (see Class 3-6). I've included field size and weight as examples, though I'd not be getting too stoked about them as supporting ballast.
More credible is the bottom row of the Trainer Snippet intel on geegeez, see image below:
Our New Buddy may get whacked again this evening, but there are reasons to believe she can show more for the extended range and for the second try in handicap company.
As with all horseracing data - and indeed information in any other sphere - nothing is alpha and omega: we need to get as much awareness as we can in order to make the most informed decisions we can. Profiler is one more tool in our kit bag to that end.
Good luck,
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/profiler830x320.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-07-15 10:42:182021-07-15 11:09:10How to Use the Profiler Tab
Reassuringly he was always there; then, half-watching Racing TV the other day, suddenly he wasn’t. People of my generation always used to ask, “Where were you when the news came through that JFK was assassinated?” For the record I was in a little street in Bow, East London, with just about my first proper girlfriend and her family, writes Tony Stafford.
Bloodstock people of all ages now will relate their whereabouts at the time of the passing of the greatest stallion of all time. Galileo, aged 23 and sire of 91 Group and Grade 1 winners at the time of his death late last week is no more. No longer is that the figure either, Bolshoi Ballet making it 92 in New York on Saturday completing an Aidan O’Brien / Ryan Moore Grade 1 double with Santa Barbara, now respectively Derby and Oaks winners after all.
Galileo’s legend though will continue to develop, with a couple more crops of those whole-hearted, ultra-genuine performers yet to grace the track, mostly from Coolmore Stud and Ballydoyle who monopolised his progeny from the time Teofilo and others showed him to be a sire for all seasons and more importantly all ages. Messrs (and Mrs) Magnier, Tabor, Smith and of course the whole Aidan O’Brien family owe him a massive debt of gratitude.
Having had him as my equine hero for a decade and a half and as the password on almost all my electronic devices such as they are, it was gratifying that on a visit for the Champions Weekend in September 2018 along with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman I got to meet him.
Minutes later we were allowed into the Coolmore museum and saw the life-size and oh so realistic embodiment of his sire Sadler’s Wells whose apparently never-to-be broken tally of records has indeed been shattered by this phenomenon.
Typically Alan gave him a cuddle and for months afterwards would show anyone within reach the pictures, asking, “Who do you think this is?” I, of course, would have been tempted to say, “Surely it’s you!” but most people are less unkind.
I remember sitting in the late George Ward’s Ascot box, along from the Royal Box – a fair way along if I’m honest – telling the heroic combative boss of Grunwick, the company that produced the Instaprint and Tripleprint photo services long before cameras did the same job instantly, about him.
George had been through an awful front-page making ordeal with the unions decades earlier but came through it and got interested in racing, becoming a major sponsor and a leading light in the Racehorse Owners Association.
I told him, “George, you have to send a mare to Galileo, he’s only €30k!” He said, “That’s too rich for me, I’ve just a few ordinary mares.” Fair enough and of course by the time the next lot of nominations were considered his fee had already increased notably.
Sadly George died soon afterwards and now the equine object of my admiration, long since designated as having a “private” fee is gone, too.
One quote I saw (and a figure too that was often bandied about) was that you needed to stump up €500k to unlock the golden gates to his magical semen. But such was the flexibility of John Magnier’s marketing skills that the way to Galileo’s heart (as far as breeders’ mares were concerned) could often be through foal shares. The mare had to be pretty good in most cases but the numbers also needed to be kept up, so “private” had to be the way to go.
I could imagine breeders sitting down around a table at Royal Ascot, Longchamp or Newmarket sales asking each other: “How much did you pay?” I bet they always erred on the high side!
A slow computer early this morning limited my intended analysis of the Coolmore stallion roster 2021 but as far as I could tell, from 24 of the 26 other sires listed to be standing as Flat stallions this year, their combined fees amounted to just about half a million Euro – equivalent to one top-priced (no deals) Galileo.
Two exceptions are the highly-promising pair Wootton Bassett, a relative newcomer, but now raised to €100,000 and No Nay Never, up to 125K after his progeny’s exploits in his first few years’ activity. Two nice Wootton Bassett winners over the past weekend will keep him in breeders’ headlights.
Their upward momentum is reminiscent of a similar hike for No Nay Never’s sire, Scat Daddy, another shrewd buy from Coolmore, running in Michael Tabor’s colours in the US towards the end of his career. He had just been promoted to a fee of $100,000 at their Ashford Stud, Kentucky, base after a brilliant start when he had an accident at the farm. His untimely death came with a stunning book of mares waiting in vain for his services.
There can be little doubt he would have been a realistic US-based counterpart to Galileo if the evidence alone of the unbeaten Triple Crown winner Justified is considered. Two other sons of Scat Daddy, plus two of No Nay Never, grace the present Coolmore Ireland roster. Caravaggio, by Scat Daddy, has made a great start with his first two-year-olds this year and Coolmore has taken the hint - he will be based at Ashford in 2022.
Also at Ashford is the other Triple Crown hero of the modern age, American Pharoah, while the horse that came nearest to a UK Triple Crown, which would have been the first since Nijinsky in 1970, Camelot stands at only €45k in Co Tipperary. He is the sire of Santa Barbara, who thus on Saturday belatedly joined the four other Group 1 winning three-year-old fillies at Ballydoyle. Needless to say Alan has pictures with both Triple Crown winners, but I didn’t make that trip.
Two of the five, Empress Josephine and Joan Of Arc, both Classic winners this year, are daughters of Galileo. As far as my haphazard researches allow, I believe seven sons of Galileo are standing at Coolmore and Churchill, the 2,000 Guineas winner of 2017, is already off to a flying start with eight individual winners in his first crop.
Apart from the Flat-race squad, Coolmore NH has a further 18 stallions between Castle Hyde, Grange Stud and The Beeches where six more sons of Galileo ply their trade, so to speak. Classic winners Capri, Soldier Of Fortune and Kew Gardens are among them along with Order of St George, a dual Gold Cup hero from Ascot.
Two non-Galileos working away there are his fellow Sadler’s Wells horse, Yeats, the four-time Gold Cup winner and the multiple Group 1 winner, Maxios (by Monsun), busiest of the lot last year with 298 mares successfully accommodated. At €7k a pop, his new increased price, that’s good business.
If there is to be a sire to step into those size 14 shoes – not really but you get the illusion! – it has to be St Mark’s Basilica (Siyouni-Cabaret/Galileo). Now I know why, straight after that epic Eclipse win at Sandown that brought a best in the world rating of 127 to eclipse (ha!) Palace Pier, one insider said, “They are hoping he might be the one to replace Galileo.” He better not lose from now on then, but I fail to see why he should.
Back in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s when Robert Sangster, Vincent O’Brien and his son-in-law John Magnier were going hard in the bloodstock business in the US having acquired Coolmore from Tim Vigors, the great Northern Dancer was commanding fees of $1 million.
Such was his allure that when Henryk De Kwiatkowski was looking for mares to send to his Horse Of The Year, Conquistador Cielo, he paid 3.8 million dollars for a mare in foal to Northern Dancer. She lost the foal – and he didn’t pay the extra for foal insurance. Conquistador Cielo, subject of a $36 million syndication proved to be pretty rubbishy as a stallion but Henryk had another horse, by Northern Dancer, who did turn out pretty good at the same time. That was Danzig and he at one stage was getting quite close to the magic million too. Pity I didn’t find a mare to send to him (for free!) when I was offered the chance.
As the Old Testament would say, Northern Dancer begat Sadler’s Wells; Sadler’s Wells begat Galileo; Galileo begat Frankel, Teofilo, Minding, Love and many more champions besides. There are legacies and legacies, but none like Galileo’s. Rest in peace, we’ll never forget you and I can’t wait to see you standing next to your dad in the Coolmore museum. I’m sure Alan will let me know when the star attraction is ready for viewing.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Galileo_TonyStafford_HarryTaylor_AlanNewman.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-07-12 09:38:122021-07-12 09:38:12Monday Musings: Remembering a True Legend of the Turf
Plenty of very competitive races to get stuck into on ‘Super Saturday’ but the main race of interest is surely the John Smith’s Cup at York (4.05pm). This is one of my favourite races of the season and it’s often won by a horse capable of mixing it at Group level.
A massive field of 22 set to go to post for this one, one of the biggest fields you’ll see go around a bend all season, so is there a draw bias?
According to the data above, there isn’t much between low, middle and high. Middle draws have produced the most winners (13) whilst there is little between low and high from a win perspective (9 and 10 respectively).
There isn't much between the place percentage data either. Middle draws once again have a very slight edge with a 20% place strike rate but low comes in at 21.94% with high draws not far behind at 20.41%.
The PRB data also backs up the suggestion that there isn’t much of a draw bias with low draws producing a PRB of 0.50, middle draws at 0.51 and high draws 0.49.
Looking at the individual stall data, there isn’t a huge amount between a lot of the stalls again. The main thing that stands out is the extremely high stalls tend to perform relatively poorly but there is very limited data for these. Stalls 17, 18 and 19 do have a decent sample size and they are amongst the poorer stalls for place percentage and PRB but stall 17 has won this twice on ground that is good or softer and stall 22 has won before on faster ground.
Given the data I’d prefer to be drawn between 3 and 16 inclusive but very high draws look a slight disadvantage rather than a reason to rule out a runner.
Pace
York tends to be a pace track over sprint distances but is it fairer over this extended 10f?
This course and distance looks pretty fair from a pace perspective on easier ground. Not many winners manage to make all, with a relatively poor win percentage of 4.17% but the place percentage doesn’t perform too badly at 18.75%, even if it is statistically the least successful run style for place purposes too.
The best win percentage belongs to prominent, followed by held up whilst the place percentages suggest mid division is very slightly favoured over prominent. The place percentage backs up the win percentage data in front runners doing least best and hold ups doing next least best but there is very little in the figures suggesting you shouldn’t be put off any run style unless the pace map shows an extreme likely pace outcome.
John Smith’s Cup Pace Map
This is the pace map for the 2021 John Smith’s Cup, based on each runner’s last two runs.
Very interesting that there is a ton of likely early pace in this contest. A huge eight of these runners led early last time out and three of them have led early on at least their last two starts. There is so much pace that you’d probably think twice about even backing anything that races prominently as they could be too close to a pace collapse.
Judging by the likely pace in this race, preference would be for runners who should be held up in mid division or in the rear.
Draw and Pace Combination
One more data view before we look at the runners.
This heat map shows the likely best run styles for each draw in this race. Historically higher drawn front runners have performed better than their lower drawn counterparts whereas the best draw for prominent racers has been low.
We are probably more interested in the best draws for mid division and held up given the likely strong pace and the data from previous races suggests a middle draw is slightly preferred for both of those run styles. There is very little between low and high draws for the more patiently ridden runners.
The Runners
Here are the main contenders for this year’s John Smith’s Cup, in early odds order.
Astro King
Progressive this season in top handicaps and was runner up in the Royal Hunt Cup on his latest start. He’s gone up 4lbs for that run but gets to run off the same mark here so is 4lbs well in. Connections have often said he’ll be better going back up in trip (raced exclusively at a mile this season but ran over 10f last year) and several of his runs back that up but the ground has to be a slight question mark here. His poorest run to date came on soft ground over this trip and any rain that falls on Saturday is likely to decrease his chances of winning. He’d have been a solid contender on fast ground but he’s opposable on good to soft or worse.
Surrey Pride
Boasts rock solid claims after a course and distance win here in May. He won pretty comfortably that day, looking to have improved since a successful 3yo campaign, and a 6lb rise surely underestimates him given how that form has worked out. The 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th have all won since which is extremely hot form and I’m a big fan of course form when betting at York, especially when there is some cut in the ground.
One common misconception in racing is that horses that don’t want fast ground automatically want soft ground and vice versa. Surrey Pride is one of those horses that doesn’t want extremes of going. He finished 4th on his only run on good to firm, his form on soft or heavy ground reads 5557 and his form on good or good to soft reads 61111, with the only defeat coming on debut (in a maiden that worked out well). If the ground doesn’t soften beyond good to soft on Saturday (there is a bit of rain forecast) he’s the one to beat. The one question mark is being drawn in the highest stall. It’s probably a disadvantage, but not a massive one and not one that hasn’t been overcome before (Farraaj won from stall 22 in 2014).
Aaddeey
I gave this horse a good write up for the Old Newton Cup on Saturday only for the ground to soften and for him to be withdrawn. It’s unlikely the ground is going to be perfect here and the drop in trip has to be considered a pretty big negative. He did run well over 10f at Newbury on seasonal debut in what was a warm race but he’s 15lbs higher here courtesy of improving for running over 12f. A strong pace will help him but he’s probably going to get 14f this season and on ground that is softer than ideal he’s worth taking on.
Dawaam
Owen Burrows’ runner is four from five on the all weather but yet to reach the places in three efforts on turf. You couldn’t say he doesn’t go on turf as he was only beaten 5 lengths in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot last time and he’s technically 8lbs well in here. However he did fail to beat a rival home on his only run on good to soft ground and that came off a lower mark than this so he’s a bit of a punt in this and surprisingly short in the betting, the fact that he’s 8lbs well in probably largely determining that.
Ascension
Happiest when the mud is flying so his run on fast ground in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out is easily forgiven. He was a comfortable winner before that on good to soft ground at Newbury in a fair handicap but probably flattered by running on the favoured near side rail on that occasion and not necessarily the best runner in that race. This is his first run over further than a mile and he hasn’t looked to be crying out for this test to date but his sire has winners at all trips and the dam stayed 10f so there are possibilities.
Fishable
A Ripon specialist (form figures there of 1141) but does have York form too. He was runner up over course and distance last season on soft ground and then although only 8th in first time cheekpieces here behind Surrey Pride in May, he missed the break by about 5 lengths that day and was badly squeezed up when in the process of running a big race. He has gone up 3lbs since for winning again at Ripon.
He looks to have a major form chance but he did make all last time and trying those same tactics here would probably be a mistake. He has also been held up plenty of times though and it might just be a case of connections choosing to ride him more prominently when he goes to Ripon, tactics that are suited to that course. Stall 18 is probably slightly higher than ideal but not the end of the world.
Al Zaraqaan
Progressive on the all weather over the winter but hasn’t run to the same level on any going type since on turf. He did run better on turf at Group 2 level on fast ground than he did on soft ground in a listed race but he’s not going to get fast turf here and he’s yet to prove he’s capable of winning a big handicap off a mark of 107 on turf. He does have further progression left in him though.
Good Birthday
Won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar this season and it’s a race that has worked out very well. He was well placed that day though and probably not the best horse in the race and he didn’t back it up next time out at Newmarket when well beaten. The ground might have been more to blame that day than a 4lb rise and easier ground will undoubtedly suit more here. He’s been well beaten in two runs at York and isn’t always the most reliable so although he’s capable of running well if on a going day, others look better handicapped.
Nicholas T
Not many horses win the Northumberland Plate before coming here but he does have plenty of form over this trip and is on a roll having put together back to back wins. He’s taken his form to a new level this season over trips further than this and it’s likely he could struggle off a career high mark now.
Bright Start
Probably been better on all weather surfaces to date and his only win came on dirt in Meydan over the winter. He has run well on a variety of going types on turf and can’t be completely ruled out having finished a nose runner up to a progressive type last time out but his turf form does leave him needing to step up and he could be ridden too close to the pace here.
Johnny Drama
Took his form to a new level over the winter on all weather surfaces and if he translates that improvement back to turf he’s well handicapped considering his turf mark is 9lbs lower than his all weather mark. He has been runner up over course and distance off this sort of mark twice so he’s not completely ruled out even if he hasn’t improved. His turf form last season requires a step up though and he could be a bit too close to the early gallop for comfort here.
Lucander
An interesting one at the price. He won over course and distance last season on soft ground which gives him a 100% record at York from two runs. He was runner up in last season’s Cambridgeshire off a 1lb lower mark on good ground and returned in good form this season, finishing 2nd at Newmarket behind an enterprisingly ridden rival. The third in that race has won since. Only beat one home last time in the Royal Hunt Cup but a mile on fast ground wouldn’t have suited. He’s often held up in mid division which should be perfect from his middle draw and the easier ground and return to York should help him improve from a poor effort last time out.
Data Protection
Tends to run his best races at Newmarket or Epsom and was well below par when favourite on his only try at York. Likely to help set a strong pace and has work to do off a career high mark.
Cockalorum
In the form of his life at the moment although this is a big step up from the class 4 handicaps he’s been winning. He made all for both recent wins too and those tactics are unlikely to see him to best effect here.
Dark Pine
Proved his recent improvement wasn’t just down to all weather surfaces when winning at Chester before finding heavy ground over further at Royal Ascot too much. Not handicapped out of this off 4lb higher and could go well at a price but obviously needs to improve again in this company.
Hartswood
Has a bit of a reputation as a York specialist despite just the one win here, having also filled the places in several top handicaps here. Won last time out when getting the run of the race at Newcastle and still has a chance of landing a decent race at this course off his new mark. He’s only tried this distance once and didn’t seem to stay so would have made much more appeal in the mile handicap earlier in the card but it will be interesting to see how he takes to this trip here at York.
Victory Chime
Had limitations exposed last time out at listed level and has generally performed best at front runner friendly tracks. Much more competition for the lead here and probably not well enough handicapped.
Winter Reprise
Needs to step up massively on what he’s done this season and seems very reliant on leading early, which will almost certainly compromise his chance here.
Palavecino
Hasn’t quite matched his all weather form on turf despite not having a split mark and it’s a slight worry his best turf form seems to have come at Chester. Another that could be too close to the early gallop and doesn’t look well enough handicapped.
What’s The Story
Has a good record at York and runs in this for the fourth consecutive year. This trip seems to stretch him a little and his best chance of a win off this mark would be on fast ground over a mile here.
Sky Defender
Inconsistent and difficult to win with but has shown he can run well off this sort of mark and has strong course and distance form. Probably too reliant on getting an easy lead though which he won’t get here and needs to bounce back from a poor run.
Strait Of Hormuz
Still lightly raced and better than the bare result in both runs this season. He’s only 3lbs higher than when winning a decent handicap at Doncaster last season over this trip and didn’t seemingly stay further on his next two runs. He dropped back to this trip last time out at Epsom and although beaten 11.5 lengthsit was a day of exaggerated winning distances and Strait Of Hormuz met trouble in running and had to be snatched up. He does have form on softish ground but he’s probably better on good or better, which means the ground has probably gone slightly against him here. He’s worth watching out for on better ground though and should outrun his odds, especially if less rain falls on Saturday than is forecast.
The Verdict
A fair few of those near the head of the betting look worth taking on for reasons outlined above and although Strait Of Hormuz is very likely to outrun his odds, especially if the course doesn’t catch any more showers, he probably needs even faster ground to go close in a race of this nature.
I’m so much more confident betting on course form at York and Lucander, Fishable and Surrey Pride all have strong course and distance form to their names. The fact that Lucander is unbeaten in two runs here makes him really interesting and there are obvious reasons for him to bounce back here from a poor run but he would have appealed slightly more if he’d run just a bit better at Ascot last time. He’s still massively overpriced and worth covering though, especially with Laura Pearson riding and claiming 5lbs.
Fishable may not have won here but he’s unlucky to not have placed in both course and distance starts and will find conditions perfect here. If he’d got a clear run behind Surrey Pride last time he’d probably have finished 3rd or 4th and would be going into this a shorter price. He’s been in good form all season, is consistent and after just ten runs should still be improving a little. The only slight worry with him is being ridden too close to the pace but he’s been held up in all three visits to York (didn’t have much choice last time admittedly after missing the break).
Assuming Saturday's rain isn't enough to send the ground back to soft though SURREY PRIDE looks the most likely to go well. We’re yet to see how far he can go on good/good to soft ground and he’s proven over course and distance with his last race working out well. He’s been held back for this since and his run style is ideally suited to a course like this where he can make up ground on the bridle. The draw isn’t ideal but his run style should be.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racingfotos_54810711165.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-07-09 11:43:182021-07-09 11:43:18John Smith’s Cup 2021 Preview: Take Pride To Emerge On Top
A dilemma that faces punters from time to time is when a trainer saddles two or more runners in the same race, writes Dave Renham. Do you take the obvious option and back the shortest-priced runner? Or is there value in backing the outsider of the pair? Whichever approach you take, it’s likely that many of you can recall times when you backed the wrong one!
The scope of this article is restricted to looking at trainers’ performance when they have exactly two runners in the same race. The data has been taken from UK flat races (turf and all weather) from January 1st 2014 to June 28th 2021. I have restricted it to two runners purely for ease of data compilation, as well as the fact that not many trainers run three or more horses in the same race on a regular basis (Aiden O’Brien the obvious exception).
All profit and loss is calculated to Industry Starting Price. For the shorter priced horse of the pair I will call this the “first string”, the bigger priced runner will be known as the “second string”.
Let us first look at trainers that have had at two or more runners in the same race on at least 100 occasions (hence at least 200 runners overall). There have been 49 trainers that qualify against that stipulation:
Below are the combined results of all runners for each trainer (i.e. both first and second string):
Not surprisingly, just three of the 49 trainers show a profit when looking at both strings as a whole. It is hardly likely that backing both runners for every trainer in every race is going to make a profit long term. But let's see what happens when we break the data down and compare strike rates between first and second string runners. I have done this in four graphs in order to show the comparison pictorially and, hopefully, more clearly.
My approach was to add up the winners and work out which percentage of all the winners came from the trainer’s first string (shorter priced runners) and what percentage came from the second. For Charlie Appleby, for example, he has had 85 winners of which 61 were first string runners (71.8%); 24 winners came from second string runners (28.2%). The blue bar accounts for first string runners, the orange bar for second string.
Overall, when combining all 49 trainers, roughly 75% of the winners have come from their first string entries, thus 25% from their second string. I would guess these figures would be roughly what we might have expected.
As can be seen, however, there is a wide fluctuation when analysing the performance of individual trainers. John Bridger, for instance, has had no winners from his second string runners, whereas Scott Dixon has very even stats with 17 first string winners (56.7%) compared to 13 second string winners (43.3%).
Trainers to note with first string runners
Eight trainers have made a blind profit to SP with their favoured runner of the pair, while a couple have essentially broken even. The table below gives their individual stats ordered by win profit / loss.
Of course, we have to be careful when looking at relatively ‘raw’ data like this: two trainers have made a profit purely due to one big priced winner each - Mick Appleby's figures are skewed due to an 80/1 winner, while Gary Moore had a 50/1 winner. It is also worth noting that Dean Ivory had two winners at 50/1 which make up most of his £123 profit (though he was still profitable even allowing for that brace of bullseyes).
Let's now dig a little deeper into some individual trainers.
John & Thady Gosden
The Team Gosden partnership, whose stats include Gosden Senior on his own previously, have broken even with their first string runners from a very decent sample size. I thought it would be worthwhile to see if breaking the data down further may reveal a potentially profitable angle or two.
With that in mind, let's first look at race type – the bar chart below compares strike rate (in blue) and ROI% (profit/loss) in orange.
As can be seen, there were crippling returns in handicaps from a modest strike rate (relatively) of around 13%.
The Clarehaven yard enjoyed similar strike rates, at around double the handicap clip, in maidens and other non-handicaps (e.g. Group, Listed, Stakes races etc), excluding novice races; similar returns, too, with a tiny loss in maidens and a tiny profit in non-handicaps.
Far and away the best figures for Gosden’s first string runners have come in Novice races, where they've notched a strike rate of 33% with strong returns of 14p in the £ at SP.
The Novice race stats can be improved slightly if we focus on the front end of the market. Gosden’s first string runners that have started 4/1 or shorter have provided 35 winners from 97 (SR 36.1%) for a profit of £20.19 (ROI 20.8%).
Roger Varian
There are some interesting data to share also regarding Roger Varian. His first string runners have an excellent record when sent off at single figure odds. Under these circumstances Varian’s runners have provided 27 winners from 98 runners (SR 27.6%) for a healthy profit to SP of £36.82 (ROI +37.6%). This can be improved further if we ignore handicaps, with 23 of the 75 runners winning (SR 30.7%) for an overall profit of £38.19 (ROI +50.9%).
If we focus on horses 10/1 or bigger Varian has managed just one win from 39 attempts.
A final side note for Varian is that he has struggled at Ascot with just 1 success from 23 in this context doubly-represented context.
Richard Fahey
The record of Richard Fahey with his first string runners is also interesting. Overall his figures look relatively modest – 177 winners from 1305 runners (SR 13.6%) for a loss of £265.74 (ROI -20.4%). However, when we break it down we see some big differences:
Virtually all of Fahey’s losses have occurred in handicap races. In maidens and novice events he has broken even, and from a small sample of runners in low grade sellers and claimers made a tidy profit.
Breaking the maiden data down further, focusing on Fahey runners priced 8/1 or shorter has produced 29 winners from 103 runners (SR 28.2%) for a healthy profit of £46.49 (ROI +45.1%).
Worst First String Returns
Before moving onto second strings, it is worth sharing the stats of the trainers with the worst overall returns for the first strings:
I was surprised to see Sir Michael Stoute languishing in this list; he some very poor figures indeed. Clearly the first strings of the above trainers are worth avoiding in most, if not all, circumstances.
Trainers to Note with Second String Runners
To finish off let's briefly look at trainers' second string performances. As you would expect strike rates are much lower and profits are generally hard to come by. Indeed the highest strike rate in our sample of 49 trainers is just 9.9% for Charlie Appleby, with the next best a mere 7.3% for the Gosden stable.
Messrs. Burke, Dascombe, Ivory, Dixon, Hammond and Beckett were the only trainers to make a profit on their runners, and only because of a huge priced winner here or there which skews their figures.
Some high profile trainers have very poor records with their second string runners as the line graph below shows. The blue line represents their individual strike rate and the orange line shows their return on investment (ROI%). All trainers in the graph have shown losses in excess of 33p in the £; Jamie Osborne stands the worst on that front with an 85p loss for every £1 bet. Ouch!
Trainer statistics as we know come in many forms – course stats, favourite stats, horses on debut, etc. The ones I have shared with you in this article are less well advertised. Hopefully you will find them useful either pinpointing possible bets or, just as importantly, helping to avoid poor value ones.
- Dave Renham
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/aidanobrien_irishchampionsweekend.jpg320829Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2021-07-06 01:59:412021-07-06 07:49:02When Trainers Run Two in the Same Race
The sports pages yesterday were dominated by a certain football match in Rome and, much earlier on Saturday, the 18-year-old world number 338-rated female tennis player wowing the home crowd at Wimbledon, writes Tony Stafford. At least on a par, ten miles down the A3 in Esher, St Mark’s Basilica was deservedly making his own headlines.
There is winning a Group 1 race, indeed one completed in slower time for the Sandown Park ten furlongs than the two handicaps over that trip on the card, and then there’s winning it like a potential champion.
You can list a big winner’s credentials but when it gets into the top level it is rare to find a horse running past fully tested Group 1 performers in a few strides and drawing away. That is what St Mark’s Basilica did in swamping Mishriff and Addeybb for speed once Ryan Moore unleashed him.
Afterwards there was the inevitable qualifying of the performance, commentators suggesting Addeybb, who battled back to wrest second off Mishriff, and the third horse may have both come to the race a little under-cooked.
Well here’s the rub. Both horses had already won Group 1 races this year, Addeybb continuing his Australian odyssey with another defeat of the brilliant mare Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April while Mishriff earned his owner Prince Abdulrahman Abdullah Faisal just about £10 million when annexing his own country’s Saudi Cup and the Dubai Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night.
Those wins illustrated his versatility, the former over nine furlongs on dirt and the latter a mile and a half on turf, so Sandown’s mile and a quarter will have fitted comfortably within his parameters.
When Mishriff drew alongside Addeybb in the straight on ground possibly a little less soft than ideal for the leader, he looked set to win, but St Mark’s Basilica was poised in behind in this four-horse field and, when given the signal by Ryan, he sailed serenely clear.
Sandown’s tough uphill conclusion often provides sudden changes in momentum. By the line St Mark’s Basilica was, either from loneliness or simply feeling the effects of the sudden change in velocity that took him clear, definitely if marginally coming back to the rallying Addeybb.
But William Haggas’ seven-year-old is a battle-hardened winner of 12 of 23 career starts. Mishriff, handled skilfully by the Gosdens, has won six of 11, but until Saturday his only defeat in the previous six had been in Addeybb’s Champion Stakes where he appeared not to appreciate the very testing ground.
Saturday’s success makes St Mark’s Basilica the winner of four Group 1 races in succession starting with the Dewhurst. That normally is the race that signals the champion juvenile of his year and then he went on to hoard both French Classics open to males, the Poulains and Jockey Club, where his electric burst heralded the type of performance we saw on Saturday.
In a year where four-fifths of the Aidan O’Brien Classic winners have been four different fillies and none of them Santa Barbara, the fifth has been going a long way to eradicate the overall disappointing showings – so far, and remember it is a long season – of the other colts.
A son of Siyouni – also the sire of Sottsass, the 2020 Arc winner, now standing his first-year stallion duties for €30k a pop at Coolmore Stud – his two French Classic wins made him an obvious object of admiration for French breeders as previously mentioned here.
Unfortunately, their pockets will need to have become much deeper than anticipated with each successive Group 1 victory and if the speed that has characterised all his wins remains or, as is more likely, intensifies with experience, he will easily outstrip his sire’s appeal – and stud fee.
Any thought that he will end up anywhere other than Co Tipperary is fanciful and with all those mares needing partners he will have an enviable stream of potential mates. One slight difficulty is that his dam, Cabaret, is by Galileo.
Cabaret was an unusual product of Galileo on the racetrack, atypically precocious enough to win twice including a Group 3 by mid-July of her two-year-old season but never nearer than seventh in four more races. Sold for £600k at the end of her four-year-old season – double the yearling price at which she joined Coolmore – she has been the dam not only of St Mark’s Basilica but also Aidan O’Brien’s 2,000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia, by Invincible Spirit.
Post-race quotes of 6-4 for the Juddmonte International look just about spot on in a year when you get the impression that Aidan is being more confident in narrowing down his candidates for the biggest races to the single most deserving.
Of course, there’s still Love as a possible for the Juddmonte as she won reverting to ten furlongs at Royal Ascot, but why wouldn’t O’Brien prefer to keep her in her comfort zone for a second Yorkshire Oaks at a mile and a half? Then it is the small matter in three weeks of the King George, for which in a vastly over-round market, Love and the Derby winner Adayar are vying for favouritism at around 2-1 or 9-4, with St Mark’s Basilica moving in close at 4-1 if Aidan wants to stretch him out to 12 furlongs as soon as that.
And what of Snowfall? A 16-length Classic winner is not one to ignore wherever she runs. It’s great having a lot of good horses: the trick is knowing where to run them.
One trainer who never seems to be at a loss in choosing the right target for his equine inmates is William Haggas. With 67 wins from 266 runs, but more pertinently having won with 49 of the 106 individual horses he has run this year, the Newmarket trainer operates at a better than 25% strike rate despite many of his horses having to run in high-class handicaps.
If they sometimes are not raised as rapidly as those of his fellow trainers who might have a much less healthy strike rate, the economy with which they often win is at least a contributary factor.
But they are invariably well bet, so for Haggas to be losing under a fiver to level stakes for those 266 runners is miraculous. I saw Bernard Kantor, a patron of Haggas, again last week and we were musing as to whether his Catterick winner Sans Pretension – remember she was DROPPED 2lb for that! – would ever be reappearing.
The next day, Bernard excitedly told me, “She is in at Yarmouth on Wednesday,” about his Galileo filly. I’m sure he will have seen a later and much more high-profile entry in a fillies’ race at Ascot on Friday. I could be tempted as there’s another horse on the same card I really ought to go to see. I had planned to wait until post July 19, so possibly the King George, but maybe I will try to go this week. I bet Sans Pretension will not be too far away in whichever race the shrewd Mr Haggas decides upon.
There are some jewels that one’s eye will often pass over when looking for something in the Racing Post records. While Haggas has had nine winners from 41 runs in the past fortnight there is another area where he has plenty to prove.
Like Ryan Moore, who won a hurdle race first time on the track for his dad before ever riding on the Flat and who has not revisited that discipline since, Haggas had a go at jumping. I know he had at least one winner over jumps, Fen Terrier on October 20, 1995, at Fakenham, but possibly only one.
The 6-4 second favourite, a daughter of Emerati owned by Jolly Farmer Racing, won narrowly with the 5-4 favourite Dominion’s Dream, trained by Martin Pipe, ten lengths behind in third.
William has had a further seven runners over jumps in the intervening 9,389 days without another win. I wonder if he considers he has something to prove. Probably not!
Another of my favourite meetings will come and go without my attendance this week. Whenever I think of Newmarket July I go back to the day when Hitman broke the track record in the competitive ten-furlong three-year-old handicap for owners the Paper Boys, and Brough Scott insisted I do an interview for the telly.
My then wife was blissfully unaware of my association with the Henry Cecil colt, that was until a colleague on a day off who was interested in racing congratulated her on the win in the office the next morning. Other similar offences were digested and clearly taken into account before the eventual inevitable domestic rupture!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/StMarksBasilica_Eclipse2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-07-05 03:07:252021-07-04 22:11:35Monday Musings: St Mark My Words!
The Eclipse always gets the bulk of the attention on the Sandown card but it’s very rarely a good betting race and I find the so called ‘Coral Challenge’ which is a one mile class 2 handicap, often with a decent sized field, is the race to get stuck into. This year looks no different. The race is due off at 2.25pm with a field of fifteen declared.
Just like at Haydock, it looks as though the ground will be drying out as we get closer to the off time but there are some showers forecast on the day of the race. This is Britain, during the summer, so it’s always possible they’ll get plenty more than is forecast. As it stands we’ll probably be looking for runners that don’t enjoy extremes of going.
Let’s take a look at potential draw biases for this race.
We have a fairly decent sample size here and the first thing that stands out is just 6 high drawn winners compared to 14 and 15 from low and middle respectively. The place percentages back up the win data with low and middle producing place strike rates of 23.72% and 25.15% respectively, which both compare favourably to the place percentage of 17.31% for high draws.
The PRB figures suggest that middle is the best place to be with a PRB of 0.53 compared to 0.5 for low and 0.47 for high.
With middle possibly preferred and high draw runners seemingly at a disadvantage, we need to check the individual stall data for sweet spots.
Some slightly strange data with stalls 14 and 15 producing strong PRB figures, surprising given the overall poor PRB for higher numbers. Stalls 7, 9, 10 and 11 all have poor records, which suggests that area of the draw could be at a disadvantage but the very best PRB figure belongs to stall 8 at a whopping 0.64.
With the slightly random nature of the PRB data I’m going to look into the place percentages. Stalls 9, 10, 11 and 13 all perform relatively poorly here whilst some of the best performers are stalls 6, 8, 7, 3 and 5. It looks the case that you can run into decent finishing positions from any draw but the most important finishing positions, the win and the places, are most likely to be taken by those drawn in a low to middle area. However given the slightly random nature of some of this data I wouldn’t write off anything drawn high.
Pace
Hopefully the pace data will be a bit more straight forward to interpret.
Yes it is! The win percentages and the place percentages both follow a similar pattern whereby leaders have the best record, prominent is next, mid division is third best and being held up is worst of all. A win percentage of 19.51% for front runners and a place percentage of 43.90% look extremely impressive compared to the other run styles and it seems pretty clear that any runner getting even a whiff of an easy lead will need strong consideration.
In terms of volume, the most common run styles that win or place are prominent and it definitely looks a case of the closer to the pace the better.
Early leaders are profitable to follow for win purposes (Win PL of 17.50) and even more profitable for each way bets (EW PL of 30.63).
Coral Challenge Pace Map
So are any of these runners likely to get an easy lead at a course and distance that seems to suit front runners?
Very possibly is the answer to that. Marie’s Diamond is shown as the sole pace in the pace map but Maydanny is unlikely to give her an easy time of things up front. An early crawl probably isn’t likely given those pace options but they are unlikely to go fast either.
Magical Morning tends to sit just off the pace and that will almost certainly happen here, leaving him well placed. Montatham is another that tends to track the pace so he can potentially be upgraded slightly whilst the pace map may be slightly misleading as far as Acquitted is concerned. He often tracks the leaders but was bumped early last time out, dropped in trip, and didn’t get the early position he likes. Expect him to be on the prominent side of mid division.
Other than those runners this race is full of horses that like being held up. They won’t all be able to be held up here or many of them will end up very wide but those that race in mid division or even prominently might not be seen to their best if they are usually waited with.
Given the course pace data and this pace map I’d be extremely keen to side with one of those mentioned above as likely to be fairly prominent. It’s also worth noting that the ground could be slightly dead on Saturday if they don’t get much rain and it can often be difficult to make up ground on a lifeless surface at the best of times so we could see even more of a pace bias than usual.
Draw and Pace Combination
The draw data was slightly confusing for this race but perhaps looking at it in combination with the pace data could be helpful.
We have established that early pace could be key here but early pace from a high draw is far less effective than from a low or middle draw. Maydanny and Marie’s Diamond are both drawn high, as is the prominent angle Magical Morning.
Meanwhile Montatham and Acquitted, who can both race prominently, are drawn much lower. Low and middle draw PRBs of 0.71 and 0.68 for early leaders are extremely strong, but it’s unlikely either Montatham or Acquitted will lead. Prominent runners from either draw are also seen to good effect though.
A low draw could be deemed an advantage here but low draws that are held up have a PRB of 0.44, the worst of all the draw and run style combinations. Those that race in mid division do best from a middle draw, no great surprise given if they are drawn low they could get trapped on the rail. Sandown isn’t a course where you have much time to recover if you meet trouble in running.
This data suggests low to middle and leading or prominent are the best combinations, although mid division from middle draws can be good too. With not much early pace on dead ground mid division could still end up being too far back though.
The Runners
This is the full field for the Coral Challenge, in early odds order.
Montatham
Last year’s winner is now rated 109, 9lbs higher than when winning this last year, so this would be some weight carrying performance. He’s certainly earned that mark though. The runner up from last year’s race rated 7lbs higher that season whilst the 4th and 5th came out and won shortly after. That win came on fast ground, which Montatham wouldn’t necessarily want, so he can be marked up further from that.
Despite winning this last year off 100, Montatham wasn’t done winning handicaps. He won the Clipper Logistics handicap at York’s Ebor meeting off a mark of 104, beating Sir Busker who is now rated 8lbs higher. The 3rd was Top Rank, now rated 10bs higher and the 5th and 6th both won handicaps shortly after. Montatham has a habit of winning strong handicaps off high marks so he can’t be ruled out off 5lbs higher here.
He should be well placed and the ground will be fine so there are two main question marks. He hasn’t been sighted since the opening weekend of the flat season. He was third in a listed race on that occasion but ran as though the run would do him good. Having now spent 98 days off the track it's possible he’ll need this run too.
The other question mark is the booking of Adam Farragher as jockey, claiming 5lbs. He’s had 388 rides in the UK and Ireland meaning he has plenty of experience but he brings just a 5.15% win strike rate into this. He hasn’t ridden a winner since January – that’s 69 rides without a victory. He’s ridden five times for William Haggas and has gone well on his last two but doesn’t have a winner for him.
Acquitted
He seemingly has an inconsistent profile but he has a major chance on the best of his runs. He was successful twice as a 2yo and started life in handicaps chasing home no other than Palace Pier, getting 9lbs and a 3.25 length beating. His form tailed off on his next two starts and he subsequently missed the second half of last season and was gelded.
He returned this season in the Spring Mile, the Lincoln consolation race, and that race worked out particularly well.
All of the runners who finished in the first ten places who have run since have either finished 1st or 2nd, marking that down has hot form. You could argue Acquitted hasn’t gone on from there but the ground was probably too soft when dropped in trip at Ascot next time out. Acquitted has won on heavy ground but Hugo Palmer thinks he wants good ground – and pretty much nothing else! His run at Doncaster seems to back that up. He does have a good record on the all weather so it was no surprise he ran well at Chelmsford last time out despite everything seeming to go against him. He was bumped at the start meaning he couldn’t get a good early position and then he met trouble in running before staying on very well when in the clear.
The step back up to a mile here should suit, as should a return to prominent racing tactics used on his last few runs at this distance. The negative is a 4lb rise for being beaten almost 2 lengths last time out. Yes he was unlucky but the handicapper has very much taken the view of what might have been rather than the bare form. However coming into this 5lbs higher than when beaten just a neck in that hot Doncaster race isn’t the end of the world.
Magical Morning
Still lightly raced and the Gosden team could hardly be in better form. With Frankie Dettori on board he’s sure to be popular, especially with a potential pace bias in his favour. He was a bit disappointing in the Hunt Cup, ‘only’ finishing 8th and he very much got the run of the race on his final start at Doncaster last season and still found one too good. He’s possibly only averagely handicapped, for all he’s capable of improving, and he probably wouldn’t want any more rain with fast underfoot conditions coinciding with his best form. Dead ground might not be ideal either but he can’t be completely written off for this team with this pace setup.
Pythagoras
The sole 3yo in the line up and it’s possible he could race prominently, although he was held up two starts ago. That run came in the Dante Stakes where he was around 6 lengths behind the subsequent Irish Derby winner – not bad form. He was then ridden prominently when running okay in the Golden Gates Stakes at Royal Ascot. That run came on ground he had won on before and possibly proved this horse is no better than his current rating of 99. Connections will be looking for him to improve for the drop in trip, which maybe he’ll do, but he certainly needs to find improvement.
Ransom
Beaten a similar distance in two handicaps to date but is yet to receive any respite from the handicapper. Being trained by Sir Michael Stoute and having a lightly raced profile hasn’t helped with that, nor has it helped with the prices he gets sent off at. The soft ground probably didn’t suit last time out , in which case his third was a decent effort, and that form is working out just about okay. He was one of the few to get into it from off the pace that day too so can be marked up slightly. He’s not going to find it much easier to close late here though which is the main problem and reason to oppose. He’ll be of interest in other races at other venues but he’ll need plenty of luck here.
Trais Fluors
A winner over course and distance two starts ago before not getting much of a run when running a creditable 10th in the Hunt Cup. The race he won here was well run though and his best form has come on very fast ground so given he’s likely to be held up from stall 12 on dead ground he’s opposable.
Beat Le Bon
Second home on the far side in the Hunt Cup and has been in good form in recent starts. He’s definitely capable of winning a decent race off this sort of mark this season but he’s another that is best on fast ground off a fast pace and he’s unlikely to get the race run to suit.
Plantadream
Improved for his seasonal reappearance last time out when 3rd at Epsom, staying on well when it was difficult to get into races. He’s one to look out for at Lingfield, despite being rated 6lbs higher on the all weather, and although he’s capable of winning a small race off his current turf mark he doesn’t look well enough handicapped for this, especially with the pace setup unlikely to play to his strengths.
Escobar
Generally an Ascot specialist these days who is at his best with plenty of dig in the ground. Didn’t get his underfoot conditions in the Hunt Cup and finished well beaten but had previously run very well in the Victoria Cup. He generally goes quite well at this venue too, he has been 2nd in two previous renewals of this and one of those efforts was off just a 1lb lower mark. He’s handicapped to potentially run well but he’s yet another that would prefer a good gallop.
Marie’s Diamond
Just twelve months ago he placed in the Queen Anne Stakes and now finds himself running in this handicap off a mark of 105. He’s shown versatility with regards to the ground but the main problem seems to be his consistency. He ran well enough in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes on seasonal debut but has been below that form on his last two runs. He’s well handicapped on plenty of his form and poorly handicapped on the most recent two efforts. Getting an early lead here might help but there seem to be no pattern to his form to be able to determine whether or not he’ll turn up for this.
Maydanny
Still had only the ten runs despite seemingly being around for ages. He won two races by wide margins last season but was also below par on several occasions and that sort of inconsistency has been a problem this season too, finishing runner up in the Suffolk Stakes on seasonal debut before barely beating a runner home in the Royal Hunt Cup. Should enjoy a tactical advantage here but his best form in recent times has been on more undulating tracks, on faster ground and over further.
Accidental Agent
In okay form in two runs this season, running well in a Newbury handicap off a 1lb higher mark before a creditable 7th in the Queen Anne Stakes. Doesn’t seem to have much in hand on his current rating but isn’t badly handicapped either, the main issues here seem to be the need for a decent pace and probably being better on straight tracks. He appeals for something like the Balmoral Handicap later this year.
Orbaan
Arguably a bit disappointing for current connections, beaten in seven handicaps off marks north of 100. He returned this season in good form, finishing 5th in the Lincoln, but most of the winners who have come from that race were the runners who were well beaten. He had wind surgery after than and showed up well last week at Newcastle, held up in a slowly run race, traveling best and not beaten far. He’s another who isn’t badly handicapped but is likely to be poorly positioned here when the race gets going. I’d love to see him tried over 7f in a big field.
Bedouin’s Story
Well beaten in the Buckingham Palace Stakes when fairly well fancied and although this step back up in trip will probably suit he needs to come forward massively for that race, his first since February. He seems suited to speed favouring courses and a slowly run race around here is unlikely to play to his strengths.
Fantasy Believer
Can ruin his chances with slow starts and seems to be in the grip of the handicapper now, on turf at least where he is yet to win a race in twelve attempts. A mile and a good gallop are his conditions and he’ll probably only get one of those here.
The Verdict
Pythagoras isn’t completely ruled out if he gets a good early position but he doesn’t look brilliantly handicapped and is pretty exposed now for a 3yo. Maydanny and Marie’s Diamond could be the main beneficiaries of a pace bias assuming they don’t take each other on (Maydanny might just take a lead from Marie’s Diamond) but neither are consistent enough and both are drawn wide.
Magical Memory will definitely be well placed and represents in form connections and a top jockey. If the ground was likely to be fast he’d be worthy of some support but ground conditions may be slightly against him, even if it continues to dry out it will still be no faster than good and on the dead side.
That leaves Montatham and Acquitted as two who should be close enough to the pace who also have leading form claims. The absence since March is a slight concern for last year’s winner plus I’d have reservations about backing a jockey with a less than 6% strike rate riding a favourite, even if Montatham is a relatively straight forward ride. His handicap form from last season is top notch though.
ACQUITTED is the one I am most interested in here. I’ve been waiting to back this horse at a mile on good ground since his Doncaster run in March and even though his 4lb rise for his latest effort is a little harsh, he still looks well handicapped in the grand scheme of things. He seemed to take well enough to first time tongue tie and blinkers last time out and assuming James Doyle makes the most out of stall 2 by riding him prominently like he did in the Spring Mile (first ride on the horse since then) he should be able to go very close.
Several of those likely to be held up here will be of interest in the near future, particularly Ransom and Beat Le Bon, but it would be a surprise if the patiently ridden runners get into this.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/eclispe_ulysses_barneyroy.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-07-02 11:16:482021-07-02 11:16:48Coral Challenge 2021 Preview: Prominent Racers Hold The Key
Saturday is one of my favourite days on the racing calendar with the cards at Sandown and Haydock generally looking excellent betting material. This preview will be looking at the Old Newton Cup, one of the best middle distance handicaps of the season. This race will be run at 3.15pm at Haydock over twelve furlongs and this is a race for 4yo+.
The ground looks like it will be drying at Haydock, possibly leaving us on the fast side of good by the off time, although there are some showers forecast during the day. At the time of writing they are expected to remain light.
A maximum field of seventeen are set to go to post here, with two reserves on standby if there are any early non runners. Is there a draw bias over this trip in big fields at Haydock?
Big fields aren’t the norm over this distance at Haydock so even if we include races with as few as 13 runners we still have a fairly limited sample size. We therefore shouldn’t get too carried away with the data unless seeing some very concrete results.
The overall draw data seems even, looking at the win data, but in small samples this can be misleading. The place percentage data has low and then high favoured over middle but with a smaller sample size we probably want to be concentrating on PRB as each runner is contributing to the data set, not just three or four runners.
The PRB figures for low, middle and high are 0.55, 0.49 and 0.46 which points towards the lower the better, with higher draws definitely having more work to do to get involved.
With a potentially strong draw advantage here, but also a small sample size, we’ll want to check how the individual stall data plays out. Firstly we want to see where a good draw starts to become a bad draw and secondly we need to check how legitimate the data looks in this smaller sample size.
Before we go any further, let’s establish how trustworthy this data is. The top five PRB figures for individual stalls are all 8 or lower, five of the worst six PRB figures belong to stalls 9 or above. This doesn’t look particularly random. If we sort all of this data by PRB3 the best performing nine stalls are the nine lowest drawn, the worst performing eight draws are all those in double figures. This definitely doesn’t look random.
It's not as though higher draws can’t win though. Stalls 15 and 16 have the second and third highest win percentages. Double figured stalls have won seven of the nineteen races examined. Also looking at the place percentages, stalls 16 and 14 have the best scores. A higher draw looks more like a penalty of a few pounds rather than a reason to completely oppose a horse.
Pace
Looking at a similar data sample, hopefully we can identify any possible pace bias for this race.
The win percentage data implies not much difference between front running, racing prominently or racing in mid division, with only being held up a disadvantage. There is some merit to the win data, it’s easier to run into the places against a pace bias than it is to win against a pace bias. However in this sample size the place percentage data is going to prove more reliable.
The place percentages tell us that leading can be most advantageous. Front runners have a place percentage of 28.57%, racing prominently is next best with a place percentage of 23.17% and although it drops again to mid division (19.48%) the runners that are held up perform almost as well as those who race prominently 22.43%. That suggests there isn’t a strong pace bias – yes any horse getting an easy lead is likely to outperform their odds but that goes for any race at any course.
In this particular race the pace setup of the race seems much more likely to cause a pace bias (either way) than the course does.
Old Newton Cup Pace Map
So here is the pace map for this race, compiled nicely for us by Geegeez Gold.
A potentially strong pace here which could compromise the chances of those ridden aggressively and improve the claims of the more patiently ridden runners.
The main pace angles are potentially Grand Bazaar, Lost Eden and Zabeel Champion who have led early on two of their last three runs. Brilliant Light can sit just off the pace but has also led in one of his most recent runs.
The likes of My Frankel and The Trader tend to race prominently and should keep the front runners honest throughout.
Draw and Pace Combination
This part of the draw tab is always worth checking in bigger fields.
Low draws seem to perform well regardless of their run style. There could be a concern about those in mid division from low draws but given those held up perform well from low draws, this could just be a quirk of slightly limited data.
For the horses drawn in the middle stalls it seems a front running ride can be a big advantage. The majority of the early pace in this race is drawn towards the middle so if they don’t go off to fast they are well drawn for that run style.
As for the higher drawn runners, those that race nearer the pace perform much better than those that race nearer the rear. Presumably being held up from a high draw results in them being dropped out and forfeiting too much ground early in the race to recover later in the race.
The Runners
These are the runners for the 2021 Old Newton Cup, in early odds order.
Longsider
A handicap debutant for Sir Mark Prescott. He was pencilled in to have his first run since February in last week’s Northumberland Plate over half a mile further but wasn’t deemed ready for that, connections deciding to get an extra week of work into him before going for this race. A potential early warning sign that he won’t be at his fittest.
His form does stand up though. He beat a nothing field over just an extended mile in January 2020 in easy fashion and improved for the step up to this trip last time out at Lingfield in a novice stakes, after just over a year off on stable debut, having previously raced for David Lanigan. He beat the now 89 rated Raymond by 2.5 lengths that day, giving him 5lbs. You could argue that he ran near a mark of 100+ that day the way he beat Raymond but if you watch the race back, Raymond was better than the bare result and has probably improved since for tackling longer distances. Either way a mark of 92 almost certainly underestimates Longsider.
There are negatives too though. He’s going to be breaking from the widest stall, he’s yet to run on turf (that shouldn’t be a problem though, his sire has a better handicap place strike rate on faster turf than all weather surfaces) and there is that doubt about how fit he is for this as he’s clearly been very difficult to train.
Grand Bazaar
A non runner at Royal Ascot due to soft ground and conditions will be more suitable here. He was steadily progressive last season on better ground and can certainly be forgiven a flop on his last start of 2020 which came over 14f on soft ground. He returned in good form at Newmarket when third, but only beaten a short head and a neck. The two that finished ahead of him both went on to place at Royal Ascot in competitive handicaps and it’s surprising that the handicapper left his mark unchanged after that effort.
He’s drawn okay in stall 8 but the question mark has to be field size. His wins last season were in field sizes of 6, 5 and 4 and his good run this season was in a 5 runner field. He hasn’t had many chances in bigger fields but was beaten in field sizes of 9, 10 and 11 last year and given his running style it stands to reason that he could be better in smaller fields. There is nothing wrong with his handicap mark or his form but whether he can run to that level here is open to question.
Aaddeey
A consistent runner who has had just the six starts. His form on good ground is 2121 whereas his worst two performances have come on soft and heavy. He was an okay 5th at Royal Ascot last time out and if not for the ground being an excuse you could easily argue that the handicapper has him pegged after a 13lb rise for a wide margin win at Newmarket on his previous start. On closer inspection though he could, and should, still be well handicapped.
On seasonal debut at Newbury, he was slowly away and strong at the finish over what now looks an inadequate 10f. He finished runner up in what has turned out to be a very strong handicap. The winner, who was less than a length ahead, is now running off a 13lb higher mark. Next time out Aaddeey won a small field Newmarket handicap by an easy 4.5 lengths so a 13lb rise seems fair, especially when you consider that the runner up won comfortably on his next start. The 3rd home, beaten 9.5 lengths, has finished runner up on both starts since so if anything a 13lb rise for that run looks quite lenient.
Given the ground went against him at Ascot, 5th in a strong race was a decent effort. He looks ready for even further already so a strong pace would help him (he’ll surely be a contender for the Ebor next month) and the only real negative is the draw. Stall 13 isn’t the end of the world but it isn’t ideal either, especially for one that is normally patiently ridden.
Valyrian Steel
A winner on his last two all weather runs at this distance, making his all weather form figures 111. In comparison his turf form figures now read 145. His turf win came against a now 66 rated maiden and he’s been well enough beaten in both turf handicap runs, weak at the finish on both occasions. His turf mark has gone up for winning on the all weather and even his all weather form doesn’t particularly stand up to much scrutiny, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from his most recent (narrow) win have all been beaten since. Opposable.
Zabeel Champion
Trained by Mark Johnston, who has won three of the last eight renewals of this. Resumed progress this season and has now won five of his last nine starts. He was third last time out at Ascot, ahead of Aaddeey, but with conditions more in his favour. He’s consistent so being nudged up 1lb for his recent place isn’t a concern, it’s just a question of how much improvement does he have left in him after twelve starts? He doesn’t have to lead but will surely be very close to the early gallop and the inclusion of several other front runners in this field could compromise his chance in this, although there is no reason why he can’t run well again.
Midnights Legacy
Took advantage of a race rather falling apart on his most recent run, although he was handicapped to win a race of that nature. He’s four from eight on turf on the flat and has won two out of three here at Haydock, seeming not to stay on his only defeat here when tackling 14f. He’s the sort to continue running well but the winning distance of his last race, which hasn’t worked out, means he’s gone up 8lbs and others now look better handicapped in this.
My Frankel
Unbeaten in two all weather starts but only one from four on turf. He does have some good turf form to his name though. He beat the subsequently 87 rated Naswaary by 1.5 lengths in a Leicester maiden off a long absence and even ran okay in Palace Pier’s Sandown maiden over a trip that would have been far too short.
The key to My Frankel seems to be a fast surface and he hasn’t had that on his last two turf runs which have resulted in distances beaten of 36 lengths and 28 lengths. The ground is unlikely to be rattling quick here so you’d have to have some reservations but he’s capable of running well if transferring his all weather or fast turf form to this contest, for all stall 15 is a concern.
Dark Jedi
Improved by a stone last season after transferring from Charles Hills to Tim Easterby. His wins came at 9f and 10f but he was runner up to Euchen Glen in the Old Borough Cup here on soft ground so there are no question marks at all over stamina. That winner has since rated a stone higher whereas Dark Jedi is only rated 2lbs here so it’s difficult to make a case for him being badly handicapped, especially as he’s completely unexposed at 12f+.
He didn’t make his seasonal debut until a week ago and would need to improve on that run but it’s entirely possible that will have brought him on, with this potentially the plan all season. Even if he has come on for that he appeals more as a place bet than a win bet.
Pablo Escobarr
Highly tried throughout his career and successful at both listed and Group 3 level. He’s only rated 3lbs lower than his highest official rating which probably doesn’t leave him well handicapped, although he did place in a Meydan handicap off a 1lb higher mark on good ground over this distance, but was sent off favourite for that race so still ran slightly below expectations. Hasn’t been at his best on his two runs this season, finding only a little improvement in a first time visor last time out. That headgear is retained and a more truly run race here might suit him better but this requires a career best when he’s not running within a good few pounds of his best form this season.
Win O Clock
Disappointing at Ascot last time out given the ground had seemingly come in his favour, dropping away in the straight. He’s only been dropped 1lb for that run and whilst he is fairly handicapped when there is plenty of juice in the ground, he is almost certainly badly handicapped on fast ground. He’ll probably be well placed in this from stall 4 but that’s the biggest positive and unless they receive lots of rain on Saturday he’s very opposable.
Soto Sizzler
Runner up to Midnights Legacy last time out at Epsom, a course where he tends to run his best races. This looks a much stronger race and although the return to slightly better ground should suit, he’d only appeal against this field if the race was being run at Epsom. On this more traditional course he looks to have place prospects at best.
Brilliant Light
Still relatively lightly raced and has the run style to overcome stall 14. He’s run at trips between 10f and 14f this year, probably best suited by this distance on the balance of his form. He’s dropped 5lbs from his last two runs which still leaves him 6lbs above the rating of 93, off which he was 3rd in Meydan in February. That run was the last time he raced without headgear, which is left off here, and Marco Ghiani’s soon to be dispensed with 3lbs claim is very useful. The odds of around 18/1 probably underestimate his chances but his most recent runs have been disappointing.
Pirate King
Big improver on the all weather over the winter, winning four of his seven races. Hasn’t run since January but was due to run at Royal Ascot until the ground turned soft so shouldn’t be short of work. On his latest run he beat Midnights Legacy who reopposes here on 7lb worse terms so he’s well handicapped and overpriced on that form.
He has only raced on artificial surfaces in ten runs for Charlie Fellowes so it’s difficult to figure out if his improvement has been due to joining that stable or switching to the all weather. He didn’t look well handicapped on turf for Harry Dunlop off much lower marks but didn’t immediately improve when switched to the all weather for Fellowes. In fact his Kempton form doesn’t give him much hope here, all his improvement came at Lingfield. That has to be a concern here off a career high mark.
Scarlet Dragon
Made his move and hit the front far too early when looking for a repeat win of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, ending up well beaten in the end. He’s now 3lbs higher than his 2020 Ascot success but he took advantage of some below par performances that day and given his best performances have generally come with plenty of cut in the ground under Hollie Doyle he has work to do here.
Alounak
Formerly smart but has not matched any of his old form since joining Andrew Balding at the start of last season. In fact he’s struggled to beat any runners home in the majority of his races but he has run well on soft ground at the last two Royal meetings at Ascot. He was runner up in the Hardwicke last season and wasn’t beaten too far in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes this year. This isn’t soft ground or Ascot though and he’s only dropped 2lbs which gives him ground to make up on the likes of Zabeel Champion and Aaddeey.
The Trader
Not the most consistent but capable on his day. He was well beaten last time out behind Midnights Legacy at Epsom and seemed in the grip of the handicapper on his previous run. Decent ground here will suit but even if he bounces back to his absolute best this is much deeper than anything he’s been competitive in before.
Lost Eden
He's been potentially overlooked slightly in the market here given he was disputing favouritism in the early betting for the handicap won by Midnights Legacy at Epsom. He was withdrawn from that race because the ground turned soft and that was also the reason he became a non runner at Ascot. Better ground here should therefore suit but he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped on what he's shown to date. He won a weak all weather novice in April by 9 lengths which gave the handicapper the unenviable task of giving him a rating. The runner up in that race was a now 66 rated maiden and Lost Eden, although remaining with scope to improve, has done little to suggest he can win this off 96.
The Verdict
There aren’t many at big prices here that make much appeal. Lost Eden is probably overpriced based on the ‘could be anything’ factor but his form doesn’t really back up his mark. Brilliant Light could run well at a price but he’s very risky based on his Royal Ascot reappearance. Dark Jedi could improve on his seasonal reappearance but the bookies have taken no chances with his price given he’s much more likely to run into a place than win.
Longsider is the one with loads of potential. Just a week ago though he was deemed to not be ready enough for the Northumberland Plate and he’s clearly been difficult to train so he is opposable at the price, especially from his car park draw.
Grand Bazaar has good enough form to win this but still has to prove himself in bigger fields and he shouldn’t get an easy lead here.
The best bet in this contest comes down to how much significance you put into the draw data. Zabeel Champion is a pretty safe bet from stall 7. If they don’t go a crazy pace he should be well enough placed, the pace data suggests the lead is the best place here and prominent racers have often done well in this particular race. He ran a rock solid race at Ascot, proving he is as good as ever if not miles ahead of his mark anymore. He's very closely matched with Grand Bazaar on their Newmarket form but Grand Bazaar may be too reliant on small fields.
At a similar sort of price to Zabeel Champion, AADDEEY seems the one capable of rating much higher. He’s still very lightly raced and has only been given one chance at this distance on decent ground and he beat a subsequent winner with limitless ease on that occasion. He’s much higher in the weights here but ran well on the wrong ground last time in a good race. It seems the only things that can probably keep him out of the frame here are a draw bias and a pace bias. He can race in mid division and there should be a good early gallop so the pace bias isn’t too much of a concern, it’s just the draw. With a lower draw he’d rate a confident bet but stall 13 isn’t so terrible that it can rule him out here. Mark Crehan even takes off a useful 3lbs, he’s two from four for the stable when riding single figure priced runners.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Haydock_DavidProbert.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-07-02 11:16:212021-07-02 11:16:21Old Newton Cup 2021 Preview: Make It Aaddeey To Remember
Much has been made of sectional timing in the past 18 months or so, including by me, and it can indeed offer great insight into how races were run. But the challenge for publishers, including here at geegeez.co.uk, is to successfully answer the question, "How do I use sectional timing to inform my betting?". That will be the main focus of this article, but before that a spot of revision.
What Are Sectionals? And why should we care?
I recorded this video a little over a year ago and it is actually very good (I wouldn't normally say that about one of my recordings!) in terms of breaking things down. So, if you prefer to watch/listen rather than read, this is for you. If you prefer to read, scroll beneath the video box...
[Hint: if I speak too slowly for you, click the cog icon bottom right and change the playback speed to something more suitable]
I've written previously in some of my Clock Watcher posts about various terms and concepts related to sectionals, and those can be accessed from here.
The following blog posts are also useful if you want to really understand sectional timing concepts (and I would encourage you to block out a bit of time and work through them). They're here:
Tony's piece is quite high level and a good flavour of the subject; mine is a little lower to the ground but still overview stuff; while Simon's excellent paper is chapter and verse on both the mechanics and some practical applications of sectional data.
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Understanding Sectional Data Terminology
Let's quickly whizz through some of the key terms and concepts applied to sectional content. First up, what even is a section?
Section
A section is simply a part of a race. A race is a 'section', though given that it is the start-to-finish section it doesn't tell us much about the sub-plots within the narrative. Sections are not quite arbitrary and they can be of varying lengths depending on who/where the intel is coming from.
Here at geegeez.co.uk, we have three different section types: by furlong, call points and OMC.
By furlong, as the name suggests, has a variable number of sections depending on how many furlongs there are in the race; 'call points' breaks a race into five roughly equal chunks; and OMC breaks a race into Opening, Middle and Closing chunks.
Sectionals
Within each section, we can establish the amount of time taken, distance travelled, and position in the race (and lengths behind the leader, or in front), as well as things like stride length and cadence (which are very much for another day).
Once we have, for instance, the sectional time, we can make comparisons: with the same horse in other race sections, with other horses in the race within the same section, and with historical data for races run over the same track and trip.
Sectional percentage
Rather than raw times, e.g. a 12 second furlong, we tend to convert those times into percentages of the overall race time, e.g. the horse completed the five furlong race in 60 seconds and recorded a 12 second furlong in the middle of the race, therefore that sectional percentage was 100% (see image). Do not get unduly hung up on the 'how'!
Finishing speed percentage
Finishing speed percentage is a sectional percentage where the 'to' of the section is the finish. For example, the section might be two furlongs out to the finish. We calculate finishing speed percentage in the same way as we do other sections, and this specific number tells us whether horses were finishing faster or slower than 100%. More pertinently, when compared with 'par', it tells us about the performance against historical standards.
This is important because some courses have, for instance, uphill finishes where the closing section will be slower than it is for level or downhill sections of the same track. Runners in all other races over that course and distance (and indeed other distances at the same course) will have encountered the same topology, allowing for comparisons. [Hopefully that makes sense]
Par
Par in the sectional context is an attempt at defining how much energy (in percentage terms) 'should' be expended in each part of a race based on our understanding of prior truly run races over the same course and distance. What is a truly run race? Good question. It is one where it can reasonably be considered that the leader at each section went close to optimally in terms of efficient use of its energy.
We calculate par not by averages but by a logarithmic scale of race rank percentiles. [Again, these are mechanics, you don't need to know this: I merely share for the more curious!]
In layman's terms, the par percentile in a five-furlong race (where most are truly run, but a fair number are overly fast) will be greater than the par percentile in a mile and a half race, where many more contests are tactical. Specifically, we use the 38th percentile to establish par for five-furlong races at a given track, and the 20th percentile for twelve furlong races.
Par is a line in the sand against which to compare performances in a race.
Enough with the terminology, how do we actually use this stuff?
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Using Sectionals to Understand the Past, and the Future
As with all form study, sectionals provide historical performance context for today's race: they help us understand what a horse is capable of - and, importantly, what it might have to offer under a slightly more favourable setup/ride. This video outlines some scenarios to mine for and, if you prefer blog posts, beneath the video is a 'words and pictures' version of the same.
Punchbowl Flyer came into the Wokingham unbeaten in his previous two races and exited that race having finished no better than eighth of 21. But he was first home on his side of the draw and, crucially for this article, had a solid upgrade figure - see the right hand UP column in the image below.
The UP column contains sectional upgrade figures calculated based on finishing speed performance against par. A figure greater than five or so implies a horse may have been compromised by the run of the race and may have more to offer next time.
As we can see (in the middle of the image below), Punchbowl Flyer returned to winning ways just a few days later.
The coloured blobs show how PF raced in the Wokingham based on his time spent in each section: fast (orange), even to fast (yellow), even (green), slow (blue), slower (bluer)! Like many others, though to a greater degree, he went too hard too soon.
The line above the coloured blobs show his 'Future Form': a win at 11/4 in a £10k handicap.
Making a list of upgrade horses is a simple way of highlighting runners who might be ready to win soon.
Here's an example of a little novice sprint at Wolverhampton the other day, where a contested lead meant two horses completely blew each others' prospects:
Both Beauzon and Sidcot Swallet might be worth another chance if looking like getting an easy lead.
Beware the well beaten outsider with a big upgrade figure
Sometimes you'll see a big upgrade against a no-hoper beaten half the track. Remember, the figure is calculating inefficiency, and you'll find a few horses who were ridden inefficiently but who likely would not have been competitive even under an ultra-efficient ride. Here's an example:
Juriste, a 66/1 shot, was beaten 26 lengths in this 1m6f contest. He might be capable of a lot better but the balance of probabilities is that he's flattered by his upgrade figure of 12. As with all form reading, we still have to make subjective judgements along the way, though most are fairly clear-cut.
Big Upgrades in Slowly Run Races
Upgrade figures are NOT speed figures. They are 'inefficiency calculations'. When I was first playing with our UP numbers I tried applying them to a pure speed rating (Topspeed, though that's academic). They didn't really tell me anything, which wasn't a surprise as the two scales (UP and TS) are totally unrelated. But what I did discover, again far from a shock, was that bigger upgrades often occurred when the race was slow early.
That doesn't mean the upgrade figure has less merit; far from it. It is very useful to know, objectively, which horses are capable of producing a notable gear change off a steady gallop if today's race looks like being steadily run.
Fast Finishers
A second 'use case' for sectional data, and kind of a subset of the first one in a way, is identifying horses whose finishing effort was a good deal quicker than the race finishing speed as a whole. We call these fast finishers and they can be easily spotted in a couple of ways, one prescriptive and the other user-definable. Let's start with the easy way...
Easy Fast Finishers
We recently introduced a Fast Finishers report, which flags all of today's (and tomorrow's) runners that produced a finishing speed percentage which bettered the race finishing speed percentage by 2.5% or more. It looks a lot like this:
In this extremely convenient example from yesterday, the top two - based on 'sectional upgrade' (the right hand column, Sec Upg) - were tidy winners, at 3/1 and 5/1 respectively. Coincidentally, they also recorded the two largest finishing speed percentage differentials (FS% Diff). This is not usually the case.
As a side note, FS% Diff is calculated thus: ((Horse FS% / Race FS%) x 100) - 100
Taking the top one: ((105.14 / 98.52) x 100) - 100 =
(1.06719 x 100) - 100 = 106.719 - 100 = 6.719, rounded to 6.72
That's a verbose way of saying it is not Horse FS% - Race FS%!
Bespoke Fast Finishers
But what if you want to find your own performances of merit? Maybe you don't like our arbitrary '2.5% greater than race FS%' cut off. Fair enough. Here's what to do.
Open up the first result for a meeting, then select the 'OMC' and 'Sectionals' options. I also tend to have the 'Comments' open, and usually 'Running Lines' as well:
Remember to turn sectionals ON on your My Geegeez page in the 'Racecard Options' section. Default display option is 'None'.
OK, with things set up (you only have to do it once), work through the results comparing the race FS% with the runners' FS%'s. Once you find an interesting one, scout the in-running comment (and perhaps the Running Lines as well) to corroborate the numbers. Here's an example from that same Wolverhampton card where a number of beaten horses were compromised by the run of the race:
We're looking specifically at the percentage figure in the closing sectional block. Here, the race closing sectional/finishing speed percentage (3-0) is 103.3%. See the highlighted block top right.
The UP column reveals both fast and slow finishers: Punchbowl Flyer was an example of a slow finisher (did too much too soon) further up this post; and here we can see that all of Parikarma, Risaalaat, Reclaim Victory and, to a lesser degree, Castle Quarter, had too much to do.
Parikarma, whose FS% here was 106.5%, ran over a flat mile at Leicester a couple of days later and finished in similar fashion. She may win soon, perhaps over a slightly longer trip. Those others are all worth noting in their next couple of starts, assuming their general form credentials also stack up. [That is worth re-stating, though it may be quite obvious to some: a horse must have shown it is capable of competing against today's race conditions - or at least not shown it is incapable of competing - in order for any sectional insight to be useful].
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Sectional timing is a very useful means of understanding what happened in a race. As bettors, we need to be alive to horses capable of stepping forward in finishing position terms after races where they were to some degree compromised. Here at geegeez, we've tried to make the information as usable as possible via both our Fast Finishers report and our Upgrade figures, and I hope in the above you've been inspired to experiment with this data for yourself. If you're not currently a Gold subscriber, you can join us here.
Good luck,
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/img_60dc71653527e.png259894Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-06-30 17:14:292021-06-30 17:18:46Sectional Timing, and How To Use It
The weekend in Ireland produced another extremely disappointing performance from an Aiden O’Brien Derby favourite, writes Tony Stafford. If anything, High Definition’s sluggish display in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby was in merit terms inferior even to Bolshoi Ballet’s comprehensive defeat at Epsom.
The discovery of a cut to a hind leg immediately after that race gave connections a straw to cling to with Bolshoi Ballet, while on Saturday a stumble through clipping heels after two furlongs apparently unbalanced High Definition with jockey Ryan Moore apparently never able to get him back on an even keel thereafter.
The common denominator in a period when Irish horses have otherwise been wiping the floor with their English-trained counterparts over jumps and on the Flat has been the two Derby wins for Godolphin on horses trained by Charlie Appleby. Adam Kirby was the unexpected hero in the Cazoo Derby at Epsom but William Buick, only third that day on first string Hurricane Lane, was again in the saddle as that horse put things right at The Curragh.
From the time when his father Walter used to bring him over from Norway, where he was born, while Scots-born Buick senior was the eight times champion jockey in Scandinavia, William always had the mark of a future top jockey.
He used to come along to Newbury racecourse, a tiny lad, and visit the press room where his proud dad brought him and, later on, his two younger brothers, Martin and Andrew. Even years later when he started riding aged 16 as a 7lb claiming apprentice from Andrew Balding’s stable he weighed just about 5st wet through.
Walter took on the job of trying to get him started and initially it proved difficult. Then one day he rode his first winner for Paul D’Arcy, a friend of Walter’s from their riding days before Walter moved to Scandinavia.
That made little difference to the flow of rides and one day Walter asked me whether I could talk to any trainers. William had been enrolled in the Newmarket Jockey School and apparently had made something of an enemy of one of the coaches who found him rather too ready to express his opinions, a tendency that years later cost him a doubling of a suspension when he accused French stewards of being corrupt, a comment he later wisely withdrew.
At the time I was very friendly with Vince Smith and we’d recently arranged for a couple of Raymond Tooth horses to go to him, with excellent results. Vince is no longer a trainer and after surgery for gender transformation, is now known as Victoria Smith.
Vince gave the boy his chance and in the last two months of 2006 he rode the three-year-old handicapper Vacation six times to two wins, two seconds and two thirds, the impetus of which helped get him going. By the end of the year he had clocked up ten wins. Vince continued training for only two more seasons and William rode seven winners from 40 mounts for him with another 13 finishing second or third.
But what I believe was a big step in the making of William was when, as a result of a recommendation by Michael Tabor, William spent the early part of 2007 in the US in the Florida winter base of top US trainer Todd Pletcher. That, rather than run through his claim in egg-and-spoon races on the all-weather, Buick senior agreed, was a better idea and more beneficial for his future.
On that trip, with his dad as chaperone, he was taken under his wing by the great Angel Cordero in his daily track work and returned to the UK a better rider and a much more rounded young man.
While voted the Apprentice of the Year in the Derby awards in both 2017 and 2018 by UK journalists, Buick was actually beaten as champion apprentice the first year by Greg Fairley who had been supported with all the ammunition available from the country’s now winning-most trainer Mark Johnston. Sadly within four years of having maintained a similar level, Fairley found the struggle to deal with maintaining an unnatural weight beyond him.
In 2008 Buick did gain his coveted Champion Apprentice title, although he had to share it with another Andrew Balding rider, geegeez-sponsored David Probert. Within a couple of years he was head-hunted by John Gosden and for four years, during which time he won a first Irish Derby on Jack Hobbs, the pair had spectacular success together.
But the final step on his graduation into the top sphere was being recruited in 2014 by Godolphin with all the winter benefit of winning such races as the Dubai World Cup and its extravagant rewards. That has projected Buick into the same elite jockey grouping as Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore.
Moore has been the Coolmore number one throughout the same period, succeeding Joseph O’Brien, while Dettori, previously the long-term Godolphin number one, switched back to Gosden on Buick’s departure and duly extended his astonishing longevity with the UK’s top stable, most notably with his association with Enable.
William won the 2018 Derby for Godolphin on Masar and, while he could finish only third behind Adam Kirby, who rode lesser-fancied stablemate Adayar, on Hurricane Lane in the Blue Riband earlier this month, he remained loyal to his mount and was rewarded three weeks later with what was a second victory in the Irish Derby.
It required a top-class ride on Saturday as, going into the final furlong, Dettori, riding the Martin Meade-trained Lone Eagle, had poached a clear lead. With none of the home team looking up to making a challenge the two UK colts had the finish to themselves.
Between the Godolphin pair at Epsom was the Richard Hannon-trained and Amo Racing-owned Mojo Star, still a maiden but he was now strongly fancied to correct that status in this Classic. Unfortunately for connections, when Buick first launched his run down the outside of the field he instigated a touch of general bunching to his inside.
Mojo Star was the worst affected in the scrimmage so, while having no time to recover fully, he did well to finish fifth, just ahead of Irish 2,000 hero, Mac Swiney. Wordsworth, in third, was the best of the Ballydoyle runners but a full five lengths adrift of the first two.
So, with a Classic win, there was a little respite for the town of Newmarket, still shocked by the sudden resignation earlier that day of Matt Hancock from his post as Health Secretary and therefore the most constant face of the Government’s during the Covid-19 crisis of the past 15 months. Hancock is the Member of Parliament for the West Suffolk constituency which includes Newmarket.
The former minister was the subject of a leaked picture, probably taken from a phone camera, showing him snogging a woman that turned out to be his future live-in partner, an action contrary to Covid-19 regulations and a few other considerations too, I would imagine. The break-up of his marriage had been announced just before the departure.
I touch on this simply because he was, or rather is, a fan of horse racing and while the financial situation for owners remains as dire as it has been for many years because of the inadequate prize money levels, the sport certainly needs friends in high places. I don’t suppose he’ll be too much use from the back benches.
I digress. Whereas Adayar was a home-bred, Hurricane Lane, a son of Frankel, was bred by Philippa and Nicholas Cooper’s Normandie Stud in Sussex. I first met the Coopers in the spring of 1998 after Hitman, a decent horse I bought as a yearling and had in training with Henry Cecil along with Peter Mines and a few of his pals under the name of the Paper Boys, was beaten a neck by their horse I’m Proposin at Leicester.
We were all shocked, but Henry, despite Hitman’s having starting the 4-9 favourite after some exceptional homework, was not surprised. “A better horse still needs to be fit to win and Hitman needed the race. When it came to the crucial stage, I’m Proposin <an 8-1 shot that day and winner of his next two races for John Dunlop> was fit, so he won.” A lesson learned from the words of the master! Mainly jumping owners at the time, the Coopers graduated to the Flat before becoming highly-successful commercial breeders.
They reluctantly decided to sell their West Sussex farm in 2017 but continue breeding basing their mares at Coolmore and Newsells Park, the latter of which has changed hands in the past few weeks. Gale Force, a daughter of Shirocco and, rarely for Philippa, not a home-bred, was sold in a partial dispersal of Normandie’s stock in December 2019 for 300,000gns. That was two months after her son, to be known as Hurricane Lane, went through the same Park Paddocks sale ring for 200,000gns.
Part of the reason for the Coopers’ sale was the tendency for all their retired racehorses to come back to the farm and then live to a great age. Now they are kept at Angmering Park, near Arundel, the home of the late Lady Anne Herries and former training base of William Knight, who moved to Newmarket early last year.
The Classic Year 2021 has thrown a few unexpected barbs at Coolmore with Santa Barbara’s defeats in the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks even though they still won both races. Mother Earth’s victory in the Newmarket race and more emphatically Snowfall’s record-breaking romp at Epsom obviously lessened the blow each time.
Yesterday Santa Barbara, with Aidan O’Brien splitting the difference in the ten-furlong Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, feature race on the final day of the Derby meeting, went a long way towards restoring her reputation. Initially looking at best booked for third or fourth, she produced a flying finish between horses in the last half furlong under a left-hand drive by Moore and only narrowly failed to catch the more experienced four-year-old, Thundering Nights.
That filly, sent to Belmont Park for her previous run and an excellent second there in a mares’ Grade 2 for Joseph O’Brien, looked likely to win comfortably but Santa Barbara reduced the margin to a neck.
With four three-year-old fillies at Ballydoyle already Classic winners this year, the in-fighting for a place in the Nassau Stakes line-up will be intense but at least Santa Barbara must now be a contender. As Peeping Fawn showed back in 2007, there’s plenty of time to rebuild a reputation. She won four Group 1 races only starting at Goodwood that year.
It’s the big handicaps at Newcastle that appeal on Saturday and as is often the case, it’s the consolation race rather than Northumberland Plate that is of most interest. These consolation races usually contain far more unexposed, progressive types and for me at least, they are much better betting races.
The Northumberland Vase is due off at 2.55pm and just like the Plate, will be run over an extended two miles. It’s worth noting that whilst the course has been riding fairly slow, forecast rain on Friday should quicken the surface up a bit.
A big field and a round course, any hint of a draw bias here?
Newcastle have only been racing on their all weather surface for five years which leaves us with just a limited data set for big field two mile races. What data we do have suggests that there isn’t much difference between middle and high draws but low draws seem to be disadvantaged.
This goes against convention around a bend so let’s see exactly what the data implies. With a relatively limited data sample it doesn’t seem worth investing too much into the win percentage data, but a quick examination shows just a 3.51% win ratio for low draws, with 5.36% of middle drawn runners winning and a relatively massive 10.53% of high drawn horses emerge victorious.
The place percentage data should be much reliable than the win percentage data and this again points to higher draws being favoured with place percentages of 14.04%, 23.21% and 27.19% for low, middle and high draws respectively.
PRB is a much better metric to use in small samples, again the data points to higher draws. Low draws produce a PRB of just 0.44 compared to 0.52 and 0.53 for middle and high respectively.
With some big differences between low and middle let’s see where the sweet spots in the draw are likely to be.
The first thing that stands out here is the top four individual stalls as far as PRB are concerned are 17, 18, 20 and 16 (in that order). It is worth noting though that these stalls have very few runners so the data could be slightly misleading. Having said that the fact that all four of those stalls do so well seems too conclusive to be a coincidence.
At the other end of the scale, the worst two draws belong to stalls 1 and 2. They have individual stall PRBs of 0.39 and 0.33 respectively which is pretty awful. Stall 5 also performs poorly but stalls 4, 6 and 8 have done well in the past so whilst a very low draw might be highly disadvantageous, the low to middle draws shouldn’t be completely discounted even if it's an advantage to have a higher draw.
Looking at the individual stall data group, which is presenting PRB3 data, it does seem that the higher the draw the better with the line steadily climbing as you move into double figure stalls.
Win percentages can be misleading in smaller samples but it is worth noting that the top seven win percentages all belong to stalls 9 or higher.
Now I’ve watched several of these races back to try and determine a reason for this bias. My theory is that the horses that have been going round off the rail tend to deliver their challenges down the middle of the straight whereas those drawn on the rail tend to challenge closer to the far side rail (not necessarily on the rail). In straight course races they tend to come up the middle to near side and there is every chance a higher draw over this distance spits the higher draw runners out onto the fastest part of the straight.
Pace
Let’s now examine potential pace biases in this race.
Again not a massive sample, so the place percentage data will be much more interesting than the win percentage data. Looking at the win data though it’s an extremely close contest with just 1.52% separating the best and worst records, which belong to front runners and prominent racers respectively.
The place percentage data is also very well matched with most success gained from the front (26.92%) followed by 24.69% for prominent, 21.25% for mid division and 19.33% for hold up performers. That data does suggest you are slightly better off being closer to the pace than further but there really isn’t a huge amount in it and it looks a pretty fair course and distance.
Northumberland Vase Pace Map
Given that this venue looks pretty fair pace wise, I’d be far more concerned with the individual set up of the race then anything else, which is where the pace map comes in.
This race should be run at a good gallop with two last time out early leaders (Rochester House and A Star From Above) and the likes of Margaret Dumont, Bellatrixsa, Mr Chua, Raymond, Al Kout and Red Force One all also having led on at least one recent start.
By contrast, the likes of Zeeband, Indigo Times, Dreamweaver, Cleonte and Monsieur Lambrays are all consistently dropped out in the rear of the field and that quintet all look likely to be suited by the likely good gallop here. Being extremely patiently ridden didn’t look absolutely ideal according to the place percentage data on the Pace Analyser but granted a strong gallop here it might end up being the place to be, or at least mid division could be.
Draw and Pace Combination
Before we get into the runners and riders here I also want to look at one of my favourite parts of Geegeez Gold, the Draw and Pace Combination Heat Map which is particularly useful for big field races that have either a draw or pace bias (preferably both!).
Given the fairly small sample size we are dealing with here these figures can be taken with a slight pinch of salt but by looking at PRB data from previous big fields we do end up with a fair amount of runners producing data.
The heat map shows that a low draw is easier to overcome with a prominent position but leading from a low draw tends to result in a poor run.
If drawn in the middle, prominent or mid division tends to be best whilst higher draws are also seen to good effect when held up with a high draw seemingly the best starting position for front runners.
Given a likely good gallop here, the middle to high drawn hold up performers seem likely to receive some form of advantage.
The Runners
A rundown of the leading contenders for this, in early odds order.
East Asia
On a roll with three wins in a row on turf since joining Ian Williams and has appreciated the step up to two miles on his last two starts, winning both races fairly comfortably. What is interesting here is the fact that he gets to run off his all weather mark which is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark on turf and 7lbs lower than his new turf mark.
The question has to be is he as good on artificial surfaces? That’s a difficult one to answer considering all his previous runs away from turf came on dirt. His best performances on dirt seemed to coincide with the longer trips he tackled, finishing 2nd and 3rd over 13f and 2nd over 2m. Those efforts were off lower marks in the UAE, on a different surface, so there is plenty of guesswork involved.
After this race his all weather mark is either going to look extremely generous or we’ll know he’s much better on turf. Connections are likely to have a good idea if he’s going to be just as good on tapeta as turf so expect a further plunge in the market ahead of a possible success but the early odds are short enough in such an open race for one that has some question marks.
Indigo Times
No question marks about Indigo Times’ love affair with an all weather surface, he has won six times on artificial surfaces but he has never raced here and was beaten off 26lb lower marks on his only two tapeta starts (at Wolverhampton). He did where a hood for those starts and it’s possible it held him back or it may have been the surface. Either way his all weather form since coming away from tapeta and having the hood removed reads 1121111. He has been a bit of a Chelmsford specialist but did win comfortably at Kempton last time out.
The fact he ran well enough on turf in a hood between two slightly below par performances on tapeta in the same headgear is a concern, and he’s probably drawn slightly lower than ideal in stall 5. His hold up run style should be suited to this race though.
Zeeband
Lightly raced and representing Roger Varian so commands plenty of respect. He was progressive at 14f last season on turf and his beating of Ispahan at Thirsk (now 8lbs higher) reads fairly well as Zeeband is also 8lbs higher now and he still ran green that day. There was no disgrace in finding the progressive Prince Alex too good on his final start last year.
He reappeared with a solid 3rd and that form has worked out okay. He hasn’t particularly been crying out for further than the 14f he has raced over so far though and he’s also only run exclusively on turf to date. Add to that he’s drawn in stall 2 and connections have reached for a first time visor and the question marks begin to appear and he’s opposable at the price for all he may win, comments which apply to the two in front of him in the market too.
A Star Above
Moved through the ranks nicely last year for William Haggas, running a particularly respectable 4th in the Melrose Handicap at York, staying on well. He was successful when trying that trip this season, for the first time since the Melrose, in what has turned out to be a pretty solid handicap (plenty of placed form coming out of it).
He was dropped back to 12f on his next start though, possibly a sign connections don’t see him as a stayer, and his prominent racing style could leave him vulnerable here with a strong gallop likely.
Raymond
An seemingly exposed, dual purpose 6yo but on closer inspection he’s had just the six flat starts, producing form figures of 214121. His worst flat performance came at Southwell, so easy enough to write that one off, and he has won here at Newcastle, albeit over 10f in novice company. He has won over an extended 13f at Chelmsford and over 2m at York so has fewer question marks than many of those above him in the betting.
He’s pretty flexible as far as tactics are concerned and was held up in mid division on his most recent start which would seem the best thing to do here.
The form of his latest win has worked out well with the 3rd and 4th both winning since so a 4lb rise looks lenient – the handicapper agrees as he’s since put him up another pound but that new mark hasn’t kicked in here.
Stall 13 looks good and could encourage his pilot to drop him in which will probably be advantageous and he looks to have a solid chance at a fair price.
Byron Hill
Lightly raced and shed his maiden tag last time out over 14f at Yarmouth. He won comfortably last time out and is 2lbs well in here under his penalty but that form has taken a few knocks since, not necessarily a massive worry as those behind him weren’t particularly competitive.
He ran over course and distance last season, finishing 4th, in a race won by Bellatrixsa who reopposes here. He’s well enough drawn in 12 and his run style should suit the pace of this race. He looks the sort to run with credit but there have to be some doubts about how well handicapped he is, for all he is relatively progressive.
Margaret Dumont
Hugo Palmer’s 4yo has looked a thorough stayer since her very first starts (when racing for Mark Johnston). Since joining Palmer she’s raced almost exclusively on the all weather with her only turf run seeing her well beaten over this trip. Fast ground was blamed.
Her all weather form does look the most relevant with a view to this race and she’s been pretty consistent with form figures of 3212. The win came at Chelmsford, no real surprise given she looks a real grinder and she bounced back from her poor run on turf with a solid 2nd to a big improver last time out.
She looks pretty one paced and could get caught out against some speedier types here, even in a race that could bring out her stamina. She won’t get an easy lead either and she’s drawn low in stall 3. Probably one to note when tackling this trip at Chelmsford.
Blow Your Horn
A Golden Horn gelding that has improved as he’s gone up in trip since the winter. The majority of his starts have come on the all weather (has won here) but he seems equally good on turf, softer ground blamed for his latest lacklustre effort. Before that he won on his first try at 14f (at Chelmsford), his second win on the bounce.
He’s now gone up 10lbs for his two wins so needs to not only prove himself at this trip, but also off this mark. Being held up from stall 11 could bring about the best in him though.
Bellatrixsa
All five runs since winning over course and distance have been over hurdles and a hurdle mark of 122 means she could be well handicapped here off 77. Venetia Williams has already plundered the Chester Vase this season and given Bellatrixsa had several future winners in behind her on her last flat run, and has improved since over hurdles, she seems slightly overlooked by the bookies. There is plenty to like about her form and she holds Byron Hill on her last win but she’s likely to be close to the pace from stall 4 which could be her undoing.
Cosmelli
Won this in 2018 off a 4lb higher mark and went close here off a 2lb higher mark in December. He’s run a total of thirteen times over course and distance alone, meaning he has more experience here than many of these have had in their entire careers. His record is two wins and five places from those thirteen runs and he could run well here although he’s not always the most consistent and is definitely vulnerable to an improver.
Brasca
Finished last when only 10/1 for the Chester Vase and has only beaten one rival home in two starts at two miles plus. He does have a solid profile on the all weather (form figures of 1221) and does still look well handicapped at 14f on artificial surfaces but based on his turf form he looks an unlikely winner at this trip.
Vibrance
All four of his wins have come over Kempton’s two miles and ten of his eleven placed efforts have come at that venue too. His one placed run away from Kempton was here at Newcastle over an inadequate trip but that was off a 21lb lower mark.
His form seems to have plateaued at his favourite venue now too so he’s opposable here against more progressive types.
Cleonte
This 8yo has been a credit to connections and although he’s unlikely to ever run to his peak rating of 108 again, he won’t need to in order to get his head in front as he’s rated just 89 here. He was a comfortable winner off a 2lb lower mark at Kempton in March and ran well enough twice on turf after that before finding very soft ground against him at Ascot last time out. That run is forgivable but it came just a week ago and that effort may have left its mark on him.
He only made his all weather debut in November as a 7yo and he steadily ran himself into form over the winter. He ran a good 2nd here in February over course and distance behind a progressive Sir Mark Prescott horse running up a sequence, that runner won on his next two starts. He’s well suited by a good stamina test so a strong pace here would suit and he’s likely to be dropped out from stall 14 which is no problem. He’s one that should be able to outrun his odds if that latest effort hasn’t left its mark but he’ll probably find a few too good regardless.
Red Force One
Beat Raymond in a muddling small field handicap two starts ago, winning on the bridle, but didn’t back that up last time out on softer ground at Epsom. Going back up in trip should suit but probably not this far, he was well beaten at Ascot over two miles when trying this distance last season. He might not be well enough handicapped anyway and could be one of those involved in an early speed duel.
Autumn War
Something to prove after being beaten 22 lengths at Epsom last time out but his better turf form had come on better ground and he seems better over further than a mile and a half these days. Autumn War hadn’t run for a year before making his stable debut in October last year on soft ground, a run that did nothing but blow the cobwebs away. Next time out, up in trip with a visor fitted, he ran out a comfortable winner at Wolverhampton and he followed that up with another win, beating much of the same field again.
That last win worked out very well with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning shortly after, meaning Autumn War has to be considered at least fairly handicapped here off just a 4lb higher mark. He hasn’t progressed since then but all his subsequent starts have come over shorter than his last win and he was found to be lame and to have bled on his last two starts on the all weather respectively. Hasn’t looked to be crying out for this trip but did seem to find 12f too short on his penultimate start so there is some hope of staying this far.
Dreamweaver
Yet to win in seven starts off marks in the 80s and certainly needs to improve for the step up in trip here, which is a substantial one. He doesn’t look well handicapped or a certain stayer so not difficult to put a line through him.
Rochester House
Ran well over this trip on seasonal debut but hasn’t performed to the same level in two starts over further since (does stay further than two miles). He’s rated 4lbs lower on the all weather and although he’s never shone at Kempton (beaten exactly 46 lengths on both starts) he was a winner off a 1lb lower mark over this trip at Lingfield and was beaten only a length off this mark on his only start over course and distance so does have some fair all weather form. He’s likely to get taken on for the lead and is drawn in stall 1 which is enough to look elsewhere.
Monsieur Lambrays
Has improved with racing and finished last season on a career high mark of 92 having picked up two wins in 2020, including one over this trip at York. He’s barely beaten a rival in three runs since that win but got a lot closer on his only run this year, finishing last of four but beaten less than 4 lengths. That form has worked out okay and he’s entitled to improve on that run so he’s probably overpriced, especially as he’s unbeaten in two tapeta runs (both at Wolverhampton at a much lower level admittedly).
Al Kout
Habitual front runner who has been in fairly decent form this season but was well beaten last time out on soft ground (did have previous form on that going). He doesn’t find winning easy with only two career successes and the fact he’s finished second nine times suggests he’s a bit of a thinker. He has been in the frame in eleven out of seventeen all weather starts though and his course and distance runs have produced form figures of 232 off similar sorts of marks. He’s best when dominating small fields though and could get swamped here.
Mr Chua
Progressive last season until flopping in the Cesarewitch and ran no sort of race last time out on his first start since wind surgery. Potential to improve for that and resume progression but he’s going to get taken on for the lead and hasn’t proved he’s as good on the all weather as he is on turf, even if he is back to form.
The Verdict
Fair to say this is wide open, I couldn’t confidently rule out more than a few of these.
I am fairly keen to back Autumn War back on the all weather and I’m happy to forgive his latest run on softer turf but I’m fairly certain 14f is his trip and I’m willing to leave him alone, even at a big price here.
Blow Your Horn seems to have better claims of staying this far, the offspring of Golden Horn have a massive PRB of 0.74 at this trip, admittedly from a sample of just eleven runners. He’ll need to improve for the extra trip but Jamie Spencer could be seen to best effect here holding him up off a strong gallop.
A more reliable option in a difficult race could be RAYMOND though. He’s one of the only market principles with proven stamina and proven all weather form and he won a good handicap last time out, good enough that the handicapper has regretted only raising him 4lbs for the win. He doesn’t have much big field form on the flat but he did win two 14 runner contests over obstacles. There don’t seem any real negatives other than the slight lack of ‘sexy’ profile some of these have and he’s worth an each way wager at around 12/1.
Bellatrixsa is also interesting but the draw and competition for the early lead is off putting.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Gronkowski_Newcastle_Racecourse.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-06-25 11:16:062021-06-25 11:16:06Northumberland Vase Preview: Everybody Loves Raymond
The searing heat of battle that is Royal Ascot is now a fading memory but its impact on the form book will permeate throughout the remainder of this season and beyond. Picking performances of extreme merit is not difficult - Poetic Flare's demolition in the St James's Palace Stakes, Subjectivist's similar one horse show in the Gold Cup to name two - but profiting from such knockout efforts is more challenging, unless you have deep pockets, a fearless outlook and no eye for value.
In this post, then, I'd like to look a bit further down the running orders in search of a few horses who may have achieved more than their notation in the records suggests; and I'll undertake this act of faint clairvoyance (after all, every soothsayer performs their oracle on the basis of what they see before them that the recipient cannot necessarily yet see for themselves) through the prism of sectional timing information.
There is, I hope, slightly less smoke and mirrors than your average gypsy caravan crystal ball encounter in what follows but, as with tarot readings, time will tell on that!
One final note before I begin: this article was inspired by one covering the same subject produced by the perma-excellent Simon Rowlands, which can be read here. We are both looking at the TPD sectional data so there will be commonalities; but there is also sufficient differentiation - as well as an opportunity for me to highlight how readily such performances advertise themselves on these pages - to justify treading a similar path.
A Quick Whizz Through The Mechanics
First of all, finding results for a specific meeting on a given date is as easy as selecting the date, either from the 'Recent Results' or 'Results Search' buttons, and then choosing the meeting in question from the dropdown.
Clicking the red 'Full Result' button for a race takes you to that result. Gold subscribers will see on the right hand side of the result a column called 'UP':
This is the sectional upgrade figure our algorithm has allocated to the horse in question. For example, in the above image Palace Pier got an upgrade of 3. You can also see these upgrades highlighted in certain circumstances on our Fast Finishers report (rightmost column):
I'll not go into detail on how the upgrade figure is calculated but it is of course important to understand what the number is attempting to measure. It is in essence a barometer of how much more a horse may have to give in a more agreeable race setup; put another way, it seeks to quantify the degree to which the way a horse ran compromised its chance. A third way of couching is how sub-optimal, or inefficient, was the performance in terms of energy distribution.
Management summary: the bigger the upgrade figure, the more - notionally - the horse may have had to offer.
To the races... (at last, Ed.)
Tuesday
On the opening day, the Group 1 King's Stand Stakes was quick through the middle section and commensurately slow at the end (finishing speed in the turquoise box of 97% - the colour coding is a little unreliable at Ascot where there is, at this stage, a small sample of data with which to work).
Oxted was a fine, and thoroughly efficient, winner of the race, he and second-placed Arecibo benefiting from well-timed rides. Of the first four home it is clear from the UP column that Battaash should be marked up most. He served it up in that rapid middle section and faded late on. Given that he was coming back from surgery for his seasonal bow, this was a performance of promise and presumably he'll now head to Goodwood for the King George Stakes and then on to York for the Nunthorpe as he has done with metronomic regularity in each of the past four seasons.
But down in the cheap seats are a couple of double digit upgrades. Care does need to be taken sometimes with big UP figures far from the podium positions, especially when achieved by big-priced outsiders. In this case, we have a brace of 11's for 7/1 Winter Power and 40/1 Maven.
And, in this case, my contention is that both should be treated as of just about equal merit. They were drawn next to each other, they were both within a length (or so) of the lead to the furlong pole, and they both faded late. As a Wes wunner, it may be that we don't see Maven again until this time next year, but Winter Power is likely to attend all the midsummer five furlong dances if her nine races in little more than four months last season is any gauge.
In the 1m6f Copper Horse Stakes, the Charlie Fellowes-trained Dubious Affair closed well but just too late. Depending on your view of jockey Jamie Spencer, it was either a great but unlucky ride or a shocking cockup. Very few seemingly take a neutral view of that particular pilot. Personally, I'm in the great rider camp, and he was unlucky here, as were connections of course.
Fellowes' Royal Ascot handicap record is worthy of a mention. After a couple of years getting the hang of things, he's recorded three winners, two seconds and a fourth from ten runners since 2017. The winners were 33/1 twice and 20/1, and Dubious Affair would have been a third 33/1 score.
Wednesday
The feature of the Queen's Vase, a 1m6f Group 2 for three-year-olds, was the steady tempo at which is was run, borne out by upgrades in the teens for most of the first eight home. Kemari benefited from his prominent position, getting first run on waited with rivals. Stowell and Benaud, both 6 1/4 lengths off the lead at the half mile pole closed well but could never overcome the head start they'd afforded those up top. Of the pair, Stowell may be of slightly more interest in future, though both retain plenty of upside in staying company.
I've highlighted the in-running comment for Wordsworth, because he too was probably inconvenienced by the run of the race. Not in a sectional sense but, rather, by dint of the fact that he would likely have benefited from a more truly run event. He's a definite St Leger player in my view.
Indie Angel was a big price but an unambiguous winner of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. Coming from near last to win going away, she could be a live one for a Group 1 like the Sun Chariot in early October.
In the Windsor Castle, Ruthin ran a stormer despite finishing no better than 7th. Drawn 12 of 27, the least favoured part of the track, Frankie jumped in front and tacked left across to the near (stands') rail. Before considering the fuel guzzled in trapping and making the running in a big field five furlong juvenile contest, there is the ground covered in manoeuvring 15 stall widths across the track, quite probably more than the eventual 3 1/2 length margin of defeat.
It may of course all be moot anyway unless you wager US racing because we're unlikely to see Ruthin this side of the pond any time soon. That said, she's one to follow and could end up at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, hosted at Del Mar in early November.
Just behind Ruthin was Guilded, now a three race maiden and a 66/1 shot this time. She too was on the speed and, though berthed better than the US runner, still deserves plenty of credit for this effort. She looks a near certainty (don't quote me!) in an ordinary novice event perhaps on a slightly easier track.
Thursday
Mohaafeth was an exciting winner of the Hampton Court Stakes and looks destined for greater things. In behind, perhaps Movin Time is another to take from the race. Getting no cover and racing wide early was not the plan, and then being interfered with would have lit him up a little; in that context, the fact he hit the front two from home before fading is creditable. A lesser Pattern score is within his grasp.
In the Ribblesdale, Eshaada was an unlucky second. While the winner received an enterprising ride, Rab Havlin controlling the pace through the second half of the race, those in behind were all compromised to some degree - as is generally the case when one gets an easy lead. Havlin kicked at the optimal time for his filly and the others were varying degrees of unable to pull back the leash. Eshaada got nearest in spite of being remarkably weak in the markets all day. Divinely is another who closed from too far back.
The Britannia Stakes featured a number of significant upgrades and, by now, I hope you'll be able to spot them, and add to your tracker if you'd like, by yourself:
Friday
Between Thursday and Friday, it got wet. Very wet. The going pendulum swung a full arc and was heavy for the penultimate day. That will have ruined the chances of many more than those officially declared non-runners.
The opening Albany Stakes was a personal triumph for geegeez-sponsored jockey David Probert, who rode the winner, Sandrine. But it was the filly who followed her home, Hello You, that goes (actually, stays) on my list. A massive sectional eye-catcher (and, in truth, an eye eye-catcher!) on debut when scooting away from her (uncharacteristically well-touted for the track) field at Wolverhampton, she built on that here, travelling nicely to lead at the furlong pole before, I presume, finding her closing kick blunted by the ground. She could be a very smart filly over six and seven furlongs this season.
The six furlong Commonwealth Cup, a Group 1, was controversial as a result of the revised placings of the first two home. Further back were two performances also of merit for the future. While Suesa was on everyone's radar beforehand - the French filly was sent off 9/4 favourite - and ran better than her finishing position suggests, it is the Irish-trained filly Mooneista I'm most interested in.
Trained by the unfashionable Jack Davison, she's been running consistently well, largely in defeat, for two seasons. Here, she closed to within two lengths of the lead at the furlong pole before folding to an eight-length beating at the line. But most of her best form is over five furlongs. When returned to that trip I expect she'll be very competitive.
There were three more sectional possibles for the Tracker in the Sandringham, which I'll again allow you to pick out if you'd like:
Saturday
The Wokingham was a classic two for one race, the far side having much the best of it. But it is the eighth horse home, Punchbowl Flyer, who goes on my list. First of nine home on the stands' side, history tells us he had no chance of taking this race, instead convincingly scoring in his division. Left on 99 by the handicapper, that arguably makes him a winner without a penalty and, given he'd won his previous two he looks likely to be competitive wherever he shows up next. For similar reasons, Lampang may also step forward next time.
Summary
There were some incredible performances last week in Berkshire, and some less obvious ones which might pay their way going forwards. I hope the above has offered a few for the notebooks and, more than that, I hope it's tempted you to play around with this intel on the results. The sectional data appears on results a day or two after the races and it takes, literally, a few seconds to scan a race for big UP figures. Thereafter, a quick squint at the context in which that figure was attributed will leave you with a decision about whether to note the horse for a future assignment.
It's simple enough because we've done most of the legwork: do take a look!
June 21st is upon us. The longest day was to be the freest day until the timid medical advisors to the UK government put the wind up them with fears that the D variant – the virus formerly known as Indian – would cause another surge in infections, writes Tony Stafford.
Well it has, averaging around 10,000 a day for the last week or so, but they are testing many, many more nowadays. Anyone prepared to go anywhere near a racecourse will have enjoyed the experience of things up their nose or aimed at their tonsils.
Since mine were removed in 1952, the year of the Queen’s ascent to the throne – rewarded with a nice ice cream <me, not the Queen> as I recall – I would only be eligible for the nose job, but apparently it’s very much an officialdom-rich environment.
While the infections have risen, the numbers dying most emphatically have not, an average of ten a day for the last week when the “roadmap” was hastily and negatively redrawn. With massive numbers of older people fully vaccinated you wouldn’t expect many deaths, but the silly old advisors want it both ways.
As I’ve said numerous times, I won’t go until everyone is free to go everywhere. I contented myself with a Saturday night day-early Father’s Day celebration with my three 40-plus children and a selection of their issue. Lovely it was too.
So on to the summer and of course from tonight the days will shorten inexorably by three minutes for each of the next 182 and then the semi-cycle will start again the other way round. We’ve already had Royal Ascot and ten of the 12 spring/summer European Classic races – only Ireland’s Derby and Oaks remain in that part of the calendar, and then the St Legers in their various forms and degrees of credibility.
The Irish have won eight of the ten, Jim Bolger picking up the 2,000 Guineas with Poetic Flare and his domestic version with Mac Swiney. Poetic Flare’s demolition job in the St James’s Palace Stakes certainly puts him well ahead among the mile colts this year.
The two Classics decided so far and not to have been won by the Irish have been the Poule D’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000) won by Coeursamba, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, and the Derby (Adayar, Charlie Appleby).
The remaining six have all been hoovered up by Aidan O’Brien and the Ballydoyle team and each of them boasts combinations of the increasingly complex Coolmore pedigrees.
Five individual horses have been involved in those all-important Classic victories, and four of them are fillies. I contend that St Mark’s Basilica, despite his workmanlike victory in the French 2,000 (Poulains) and a more comfortable Prix Du Jockey Club success, both under Ioritz Mendizabal, is vastly under-valued in official terms. He beat a big field in Chantilly and his female stable-companion Joan Of Arc (by Galileo, <really?!, Ed?>) was similarly too good for another large field of home fillies in yesterday’s French Oaks, the Prix de Diane. This time Coeursamba finished only 11th.
On Sunday Aidan relied on a single runner in a field of 17 and the 16 home defenders were no match for another Mendizabal mount who won by just over a length from the fast-finishing Fabre-trained and Godolphin-owned Philomene, a daughter of Dubawi.
That made it single-runner O’Brien challenges in three of the four French Classic races to be run so far – unplaced Van Gogh joined St Mark’s Basilica in the Jockey Club. Therefore three wins and a close second (Mother Earth, ridden by Christophe Soumillon) in the French 1,000. That new-found minimalist approach also extended to Epsom and the Derby where Bolshoi Ballet, the favourite, was left as their only runner having been initially one of six expected to turn out.
Three of the four fillies in question improved markedly on juvenile form, the exception being 1,000 Guineas winner and then Pouliches runner-up Mother Earth, who had already earned her 111 rating for her second place in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf race at Keeneland last November and remains on that figure despite her Classic exploits. She ran another game race in third in much the most testing ground she has faced in Friday’s Coronation Stakes at Ascot behind Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free.
Joan Of Arc took a rating of 105 into the Irish 1,000 and was Ryan Moore’s choice for the race but Seamie Heffernan got up on the line that day aboard Empress Josephine (101) in a private duel between two Galileo fillies. She clearly improved on that yesterday while Emperor Josephine was assessed at 109 after her win.
But the biggest eye-opener was Snowfall, the 16-length Oaks winner at Epsom who went into her prep in the Musidora at York on an official mark of 90. That was upped to 108 after her Knavesmire romp but even so she was still believed by insiders to be second-best among a more normal Oaks quintet behind lightly-raced Santa Barbara, now beaten favourite in both this year’s fillies’ classics in the UK.
It seems to me a master-stroke of fudging by the BHA to restrict Snowfall’s latest mark to 120, not merely because that is 2lb lower than Enable after her Oaks defeat of Rhododendron – what that champion did after Epsom has nothing to do with the assessment - and also 1lb less than Adayar.
The give-away for me is to suggest that Mystery Angel, rated 100 after her fourth (four lengths back) in the Musidora had only equalled her York mark. That ignored she made the running at Epsom in a much bigger field and still had the resources left to stay on and retain second 16 lengths behind the Frankie Dettori-ridden winner, finishing well ahead of a trio of considerably more highly-rated fillies.
If the medical advisors who keep us wearing masks and touching fists rather than shaking hands are timid, they have nothing on the BHA men who fear giving too high a rating to a Classic winner, even one who has set a record winning distance for any UK Classic in living memory and beyond.
Snowfall has made the first big statement that she might be a challenger to Love, her predecessor as an outstanding Oaks winner and star of the stable’s slightly disappointing Royal Ascot, as the season progresses. Love, dropping back two furlongs after a ten-month absence since the 2020 Yorkshire Oaks, made all to win the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.
A third female deserving of mention in that elite grouping must be the David Menuisier-trained four-year-old filly, Wonderful Tonight. She got first run on Broome to win Saturday’s Hardwicke Stakes in style despite its being her first appearance of the year. Her French-born Sussex-based trainer has the Arc, where she has a good chance of getting the soft ground she favours, as her main target.
Broome may not have won but earlier that afternoon his close relative by Australia, the two-year-old Point Lonsdale, won the Chesham Stakes, a race often reserved for the best of the earlier O’Brien juveniles. Ryan had a battle keeping him straight, first going right and as they got close home, more markedly left, but they had enough in hand to beat the Queen’s promising colt Reach For The Moon – Sea The Stars/ Gosdens / Dettori – by half a length.
We had wondered why she chose Saturday to make an appearance. That highly-encouraging performance and the good run later of her King’s Lynn in the Wokingham made it a bit more like Royal Ascot, even when viewed from Hackney Wick. Hopefully, Your Majesty, you and me (and many others besides) can be there for the whole five days in 2022.
The astonishing thing about all four female Coolmore Classic winners is that at no time did anyone at Ballydoyle, and certainly not the trainer nor the owners, believe any of them was within hailing distance of Santa Barbara. My guess from Epsom was that the favourite probably did not stay the mile and a half under the conditions and in the quirky way the race was run, up the stands side with all the direction changing that inevitably happens.
I’m looking forward to seeing her, in what still will be only her fourth race and with a highly-creditable close fourth to Mother Earth at Newmarket on her record, in a suitable race over ten furlongs. The Nassau would be nice, but maybe she won’t be the only one from her stable appearing in that Goodwood Group 1.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/JoanofArc_Chantilly_PrixdeDiane2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-06-21 07:32:352021-06-21 07:32:46Monday Musings: Of Long Days and the Classic Generation
The benefit of betting on the final day of this meeting is that draw advantages have usually been established throughout the week so there is generally less guesswork involved.
It looks as though both sides of the course are much faster than the centre of the course so they’ll almost certainly split into two groups here on either side of the track.
It's still worth taking a look at any historical draw advantages in big fields over this 6f distance though.
Looking at low v middle v high, both middle and high hold the edge over low with a PRB of 0.51 for middle and high and 0.48 for low. There’s not much in it and both the win and place percentage data is also very closely matched so there is no strong long term course bias as far as the draw is concerned.
From previous experience we know the supposed bias can switch from one side to another overnight here and it’s worth repeating that middle looks the place NOT to be this week, so those drawn in the middle will most likely track over to their nearest rail.
The individual draw data chart can help show us possible micro biases in the draw. The above seems to indicate that being right on the stands’ side rail can be of benefit. The top three PRB3 figures in the data set belong to stalls 27, 26 and 28 respectively.
Pace
Ascot is generally considered a pretty fair course as far as pace is concerned but is that true over this trip in big fields?
The best win percentages and place percentages here belong to front runners with 10.42% of early leaders going on to win and 25.00% of them finishing in the places.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an advantage to as close to the pace as possible though as the next best success rate belongs to the most patiently ridden runners. Hold up performers have a win percentage of 6.60% and a place percentage of 21.70% which seems to highlight a bias towards extremes of rides. Exactly half of the winners in the data sample were held up early so whether or not those near the rear early have an advantage, they look most likely to supply the winner but they’ll be represented more than any other run style too.
Wokingham Handicap Pace Map
The pace maps for these big field handicaps are always hugely important. Not only do we need to know how much pace there is likely to be but we also want to find out how that pace is distributed across the track.
You could spend hours alone creating a pace map for this race but fortunately Geegeez Gold has done the hard work for us.
I’ve added a red line to show where the field MIGHT split, assuming they do so, although there is no guarantee it will be exactly there. The majority of the definite pace appears to be middle to high. There isn’t much pace above stall 20 but there is pace closer to the far rail. It will be interesting to see which way Desert Safari goes as he would add extra pace to the far side.
There is definite potential for the stands’ side to be taken along at a stronger gallop once they’ve completely split into two but there is definite pace both sides so it should be a relatively fair contest.
Draw and Pace Combination
It's always worth also examining the draw and pace combination heat map for races where there are possible draw or pace biases and once again Geegeez Gold gives us the data in an easy to consume format.
For whatever reason it appears low drawn front runners perform extremely well with a PRB of 0.66. Leading from a high draw, racing in mid division from a central draw or being held up from a central or high draw seem the other ideal draw and pace combinations.
By far the worst record belongs to front runners drawn in the middle. They potentially have to use up too much energy if the field splits getting to the rail AND getting to the lead. If the fields don’t split then dominating a massive field is never going to be easy either. There are several middle drawn pace angles including the relatively well fancied Punchbowl Flyer.
The main takeaway from this data seems to be that those drawn in the middle are best off with patient rides.
The Runners
Here are the leading contenders for this race, in early odds order.
King’s Lynn
Not many run in the King’s Stand as a preparation for this but that’s the route King’s Lynn has gone. You could probably argue the he was both unlucky and flattered in that race. He met trouble in running and could undoubtedly have finished closer but he was also extremely well drawn in hindsight, running on the fastest part of the track and he was held up off an overly strong gallop. In reality he probably ran close to his rating of 107 but that’s not the rating he runs off here, he carries a 5lb penalty for winning a listed contest and runs off 100 so he’s 7lbs well in.
The good news for King’s Lynn backers is that seemingly pretty versatile with regards to the going. He's also well handicapped on his 6f form last season behind Starman. The bad news is that he’s been beaten in three handicaps previously, all off lower marks, and he seems to have improved this season for the drop back to 5f – this will be a very different test.
He’s impossible to rule out confidently but there are enough negatives to suggest he’s a poor bet at around 4/1.
Chil Chil
Still progressive at the age of 5, he clearly improved from first race to second this season having finished runner up on his seasonal debut before winning by 3.5 lengths last time out. Both of those runs came at Newmarket and he does go very well there but he’s also a winner over this course and distance. He’s gone up 13lbs this season which makes winning this very difficult and he looks reliant on fast ground so Friday's rain has to be considered a massive negative. Stall 30 puts him right on the rail though so he can take the shortest route home.
Rohaan
You don’t get many 3yo runners in this and the last winner from the classic generation was Bel Byou back in 1987. He’s a group 3 winner over course and distance so has plenty of class and whilst that win came on good to firm, he won a group 2 next time out in heavy ground so it looks as though any rain won’t bother him.
What is most amazing about this horse is he was rated just 55 in December and now he runs in a handicap off 112. He’ll be seen to better effect here off a strong gallop than he has been in smaller field group races but he’ll need to be a group 1 horse to win this off such a high mark. If that’s the case then he may have been better served competing for twice the prize money in the Commonwealth Cup a day earlier. As a gelding, though, he was not eligible for that contest.
Pendleton
Caught on the line in a course and distance handicap two runs ago before winning at York, dropped back to 5f. He’s gone up 10lbs for those two runs this season but is clearly lightly raced and very progressive and it’s highly likely he’ll be able to defy this mark at some point this season. He’s drawn in stall 2 so can pop straight out on to the far side rail and he’s likely to race prominently. He’s one that will enjoy the ground although very testing conditions perhaps put an even further emphasis on stamina than he is comfortable with.
It’s worth noting that it was Fresh who beat him here earlier this season and that rival reopposes here on 5lbs better terms. Fresh did have the advantage of a recent run though which would give some hope of reversing the form.
Chiefofchiefs
The winner of the Wokingham consolation race last year, he’s been a big improver since dropping in trip and seems the ideal type for these big field handicaps at Ascot. He also ran well in the Victoria Cup this season when beaten 3 lengths into 7th, not ideally placed. It could be argued that he’s not particularly well handicapped but he was an eyecatcher in a strong listed race on seasonal debut at Doncaster and he is still unexposed in big field sprints. He handles cut in the ground but he looks better on fast ground and his best chance of winning this would have been if the rain stayed away.
Fresh
One of the most lightly raced runners in this field and therefore open to more improvement than most. It was mentioned that King’s Lynn got within 2.5 lengths of the classy Starman last season, well in Starman’s previous race he was only a short head in front of none other than Fresh. This runner has progressed well since then producing form figures of 142251 in handicaps.
He’s generally had some very valid excuses when beaten. The ground was perhaps a little lively when a close 4th at Doncaster, he was a nose behind Stone Circle here last season when one of the only runners to make up any ground on the entire card, he bumped into a rejuvenated Brian The Snail at Newcastle (would rate 13lbs higher a couple of months later, Fresh is only 6lbs higher here) and then on seasonal debut this season he was given far too much to do off a slow gallop in a race where the 1st, 3rd and 4th all won shortly after.
He then beat Pendleton here on his latest start, on good to soft ground, and that runner up franked the form by winning well next time out. Lots to like and has run very well here on testing ground previously.
Desert Safari
Not the most consistent but talented on his day. He’s been below par on both good to firm ground and good to soft ground with a win over 5f on fast ground in between those efforts. He’s bumped into Fresh a couple of times in the past twelve months and wouldn’t be guaranteed to beat that runner on either of those runs and he’s looked mostly speed this season so there have to be question marks about this suiting. He’s capable of defying this mark and Frankie Dettori is an interesting jockey booking but he’s drawn right in the middle and there will be other days for this one.
Tis Marvellous
An Ascot specialist who has won here twice and also placed in two previous renewals of this race. He was also 4th to Battaash in last year’s King’s Stand. The placed efforts in this race came off this mark of 101 and also off 99 so he does need to improve on those but he was in good form off a 2lb higher mark last time out, two lengths behind King’s Lynn and now 8lbs better off.
The problem for Tis Marvellous is the distance. It’s not that he doesn’t stay 6f, he’s just around half a stone better at 5f. Both his course wins and all his best runs here have come over the minimum distance. He also prefers fast ground so his fair chance of hitting the frame has probably turned into a slim chance on the very soft ground. Look out for this runner back here in a month’s time in the big field 5f handicap, on fast ground he’d look a good bet there.
Mr Lupton
A winner at York last time out (a course he often does well at) and still 8lbs lower than his peak rating, although that came 4 years ago. He’s finished 8th and 12th off this sort of mark in two attempts at this race and it’s unclear where the extra improvement is going to come from for him to get into the frame this time around.
Gulliver
Has seemingly gone on any ground in the past but seems better with plenty of cut in the ground these days. It’s also worth noting that his four turf wins have all come at York. He finished runner up here on soft ground off a much lower mark back in 2017 and was a good 4th in this last year off a 3lb higher mark so he’d have definite claims on that form. Thoroughly exposed but does have a chance, especially now the rain has fallen. Place claims at the very least.
Hey Jonesy
Last year’s winner. Very much an in and out performer who barely beat a rival home in five start’s after winning this race last year but he bounced back to form last time out at Chester over further than ideal. He was admittedly well placed but the well placed runner up in that race has won since and he now comes into this just 1lb higher than when successful last year. This looks a deeper race this year and making all from stall 12 won’t be easy but he can’t be confidently ruled out with this clearly the target for a long time.
Punchbowl Flyer
Relatively exposed for a 4yo but evidently still improving having won his last two starts including a big field sprint on soft ground at Haydock. Plenty of cut seems important to him so connections will have been delighted to get the rain. He’s made all for his last two wins and won’t find dominating as easy here, especially as he’ll have a little crossing over to do from stall 19.
Great Ambassador **RESERVE**
Interesting if he gets a run. He has been well enough beaten in two starts here last year but both of those came over a mile and the effort on soft ground in last season’s Britannia Handicap wasn’t bad either. He had some interesting form on fast ground as a juvenile, finishing less than a length 2nd to subsequent Group 1 winner Pyledriver and also in a Goodwood maiden when third to runners that would rate 96 and 101. The 4th was subsequently rated 116!
You could argue that he’s better on the all weather, his form figures on artificial surfaces read 2121 whilst his turf form figures read 230773. However he was held up off a slow gallop last time when third on turf off a 1lb higher mark and he did have that good fast ground form on turf as a 2yo. A big field sprint at a course that can suit all weather runners could see a career best. The rain probably isn't ideal but he did perform fairly here on soft ground over a mile at last year's Royal meeting and he may get home better over the shorter trip..
Danzeno
An extremely consistent sort who has finished in the first three in all but two of his last fifteen runs, dating back to the start of the 2019 season. He’s run in this race for the past three years, finishing 17th, 3rd and 9th. He comes into this in good form and is potentially well drawn in 29 but he’s difficult to win with and is probably best at 5f these days, or at least an easier 6f.
The Verdict
It's entirely possible I haven’t mentioned the winner from the above (there have been a couple of 33/1 winners in the past decade) but seven of the last ten winners were 18/1 or under and with some exciting runners near the head of the market there is a very good chance it’s one of those that leads this field home.
It’s worth noting that five year olds do very well in this race, six of the last eight winners were that age. By far the most fancied five year olds this year are Chil Chil and Pendleton. The ground has probably gone against Chil Chil so by far the most appealing 5yo is Pendleton but he might be vulnerable to a stronger stayer late on.
King’s Lynn may well win but he’s a crazy price considering the depth in this contest. Rohaan is probably a bit more interesting than King’s Lynn. It will be a monumental effort to win this off a mark of 112 but even if you don’t like his group race form, he still gave a pound and a short head beating to Diligent Harry who is rated 106 heading into the Commonwealth Cup on Friday so it’s difficult to argue Diligent Harry is badly handicapped. I just have a gut feeling he won’t win from that mark but it will be interesting to see how he goes.
Chiefofchiefs and Tis Marvellous are both thoroughly exposed and would have been interesting each way shouts had the ground been better. Of the exposed brigade it is now Gulliver who appeals most given he has run well here on soft in the past, ran well in the race last year on ground that was probably too fast and he was a bit of an eyecatcher last time out at York, finishing well from miles off the pace.
The unexposed one of major interest though may well be FRESH who looks decent value at around 14/1. He looked well ahead of his mark still when beating Pendleton last time out and that runner up franked the form since. Fresh has run twice over course and distance and he’s been beaten a nose (unluckily) and he’s been victorious by a nose so he clearly goes well here. Really he should be unbeaten in two starts here and this will be the the strongest pace he's had to aim at here. He's weighted to beat Pendleton and really shouldn't be a bigger price than that one.
If Great Ambassador gets a run he'd be interesting but the ground may well have gone against him. If he was particularly strong in the market he might be worth a small win only bet.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/wokinghamhandicappreviewtrendstips.jpg353830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-06-18 11:50:052021-06-21 07:34:24Wokingham Handicap 2021 Preview: Value Seekers Could Be Feeling Fresh
Day four of five, Friday, at Royal Ascot features a brace of Group 1's, the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes, as well as the usual smattering of inscrutible juvenile dashes and impossible full field handicaps. We're guessing on the ground a little at this stage (Wednesday lunchtime) and, given the forecast, I'm working on the basis of somewhere between good to soft and soft. [Why can't it ever just be dry all week for Royal Ascot?]. Let's crack on...
2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo)
Juvenile fillies stretching out to six furlongs opens the Friday card and 15 are due to go to post. With no Wesley Ward wepwesentation, it's an Anglo-Irish affair, the Irish component brought by O'Brien's Senior (Aidan) and Junior (Donnacha). Aidan brings Prettiest, an atypical fast starter for him, who made all at Navan just over a fortnight ago. Indicative of a thawing in the cold war between Darley and Coolmore, she's a Dubawi filly out of, naturally, a Galileo mare - and not just any Galileo mare, but three-time Group 1 winner, Alice Springs: nice pedigree! Prettiest is bred to get further in time but she's also bred to be very, very good.
Donnacha's Elliptic was a winner over five on debut before being given a little too much to do from the back of the field in a six-furlong Curragh conditions event. By first season sire Caravaggio, she'd be a terrific early notch on his score card if prevailing though she looks to have a bit to find on that Curragh effort for all that the stiffer six here may suit.
Hello You would be a significant scorer for the nascent Amo Racing ownership team, spearheaded by football agent, Kia Joorabchian. He has invested significantly, as Tony Stafford alluded to earlier in the week, and an early success on the big stage would doubtless trigger further welcome loosening of the purse strings at a time when a number of racing's wealthiest ownership entities have lost their figureheads.
Getting back to Hello You, she was mightily impressive in sprinting more than six lengths clear of what looked a competitive field in a Wolverhampton novice last month. If you're a little sniffy about it being an all weather race, then note that last year's Albany winner, Dandalla, also won her sole previous start on the all-weather, as did 2014 Albany winner, Cursory Glance; and 2017 Coventry winner, Rajasinghe.
We can see from her running lines (on the 'show sectionals' component of the inline form on the race card) that she was seventh, more than four lengths behind the leader at the second point of call (half a mile from home), and she was still four lengths back in fifth at the two pole, the third call point in the image. A furlong later, the fourth call point, she'd taken a narrow lead which, by the line (another furlong later) she'd extended to six and a half. She's smart.
Team Crisford, father Simon and son Ed, send out Flotus, a daughter of the once subfertile but now fully loaded (!) Starspangledbanner. She was most of five lengths ahead of her closest pursuer in a Goodwood novice run on soft ground. She'll handle conditions and looks to have plenty under the bonnet.
Oscula, the Woodcote winner, has been impressive on the helter-skelter cambers and undulations of Brighton and Epsom the last twice so is clearly a well-balanced and talented filly. Whether she has the same degree of progression of some of her rivals here is another question, as is the expected slower turf. Still, she's answered all questions thus far and adds to the puzzle.
Not many win Newmarket six-furlong novices on decent ground by five lengths-plus, which is testament to the ability of Cachet, a Highclere Thoroughbreds daughter of Aclaim, himself a very good seven furlong horse. That said, the Newmarket form has taken a few knocks, the second, fourth, fifth and seventh all off the board at least once since.
Andrew Balding won the six furlong Coventry on Tuesday and runs Kirsten Rausing's Bobby's Kitten filly, Sandrine. She won a Kempton novice on her only start and had Oscula back in third as well as a next time winner a place behind her. Balding's juveniles usually improve for their first run. Geegeez-sponsored jockey David Probert rides.
The Gosdens' Qatari-owned Sunstrike was nine lengths behind Hello You on debut before winning by a small margin at Kempton; she has plenty to do to reverse places with Hello You.
Albany Stakes tips
The daily jelly-nailing exercise that is a) pinning down the novice form in the book and b) isolating those with most progress to come. It was impossible not to be taken by Hello You's debut in a race where plenty were backed and perhaps she will be the big winner Amo seek after their Mojo Star ran that incredible second in the Derby. The purply-bred Prettiest (5/1) is another expected to be on the premises, and perhaps 16/1 Sandrinecan reward each way support at a double figure price and give David P a big winner. I'm sticking mainly with 5/1 Hello You here.
**
3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)
A three-year-old Group 2 over a mile and a half for the Ascot Derby, as the King Edward VII Stakes was originally known.
Eight go to post one of which, Gear Up, ran in the actual Derby. He was well beaten off there having led and looks to have a fair amount on his plate again; that said, he did win a French Group 1 last October when the going was heavy so might bounce back.
The favourite is Alenquer, who continued his upward trajectory when beating subsequent Derby winner Adayar in the Sandown Classic Trial. That form is working out well further down the finishing order, too, the likes of Sir Lucan scoring in Pattern company since. Alenquer had run two good races on soft ground last term and racing manager Armando Duarte is bullish about his chance. But then, I suppose he would be.
Back in third at Sandown, less than a length behind the winner, was Yibir. He's been beaten twice since, on the quirky pistes of Goodwood and Chester, so while this more conventional circuit might suit better he looks opposable.
A horse I quite like is Sir Mark Todd's Tasman Bay, apple of the former-showjumper-turned-racehorse-trainer's eye (ah, hyphens). A big chap, Tasman Bay was impressive when scooting clear of his rivals in a Newcastle novice, and gallant in defeat to first Hurricane Lane and then John Leeper, both of which contested the Derby (the former finishing third). He has more on again here but is expected to improve with time and racing and he could hit the board.
From the Roger Varian stable comes Title, a maiden winner at the third time of asking three weeks ago at Yarmouth. He did that well having failed by fine margins twice previously and, as a son of Camelot, might appreciate the slight step up in distance and easier ground. He has a bit to find on the book with some of these but should bridge at least some of that gap.
The Coolmore entry is The Mediterranean, a - you guessed it - son of Galileo. He was a close second in a Listed race at Leopardstown over this range a fortnight ago and is another with more to offer.
Gloucestershire, the horse not the county, takes a giant stride up in class from the Kempton maiden he won on his lone juvenile racecourse visit. Trainer Martyn Meade must be pleased with how he's working at home to tackle a gig like this but he will need a chunk more than he showed at Sunbury.
The octet are completed by Belloccio, a Listed winner on soft ground last backend who was well behind Alenquer in the Sandown Classic Trial and Hurricane Lane in the Dante. A return to softer footing may bring him closer to his Esher rivals but it is hard to envisage a full reversal of placings.
The projected pace looks even:
King Edward VII Stakes tips
ALENQUER could be a very good horse and 2/1 understates that a touch for me. He met with a setback which removed any notions of a supplementary Derby entry and yet he comes here bidding to frank the Derby form in a roundabout way. There are others sure to be capable of more but so is the favourite who starts from a higher level of demonstrated ability. I expect he'll just about win.
**
3.40 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)
A brilliant addition to the Royal Ascot Group 1 roster is this six furlong sprint for three-year-olds only. This year the market is headed by a pair of overseas raiders, one from America and one from France.
French sprinters are not typically as good as British and Irish ones - see the roll of honour for their Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye for confirmation of that (they did get the winner last year) - but our Gallic cousins have a fast filly in the form of Suesa. She is unbeaten in four starts ranging from five and a half to six furlongs, all on softer than good and all at Chantilly, most recently in a brace of Group 3's. She seems tractable in terms of run style, having raced very prominently and from midfield, and has a fine turn of foot albeit that French races are often a little steadier in the early furlongs than this is likely to be. Suesa looks the real deal and has a strong chance of completing the five-timer.
The American runner is Campanelle, Wesley Ward's 2020 Queen Mary and Prix Morny winner. Those two victories prove she can handle this track, soft ground and Group 1 company (at Deauville in the Morny). She ran with credit while not quite getting home in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and this will be her first run since that early November effort. That means we have to take both fitness and progression from two to three on trust; on the flip side, the very fact she's here implies ticks in those boxes: in Wez we truzt.
The shortest of the domestic party is Dragon Symbol, Archie Watson's Cable Bay colt having all but won a Haydock Group 2 last time. That was on heavy ground and it was a first defeat in five races. Oisin Murphy takes over from Adam McNamara and any give in the track is expected to suit.
Supremacy was a good winner of the six furlong Middle Park Stakes, Group 1, last autumn where he beat the proven Group 1 horse, and St James's Palace Stakes second, Lucky Vega. But he clunked last of eight on his 2021 debut having been sent away a shade of odds on. He gets first time blinkers here which is interesting, not necessarily in a good way. This Mehmas colt likes to lead in his races, but so do a few others.
Also prominent in the Newmarket autumn Group 1's last term was Miss Amulet, Ken Condon's filly running second in the Cheveley Park. She followed that up with a fine third - one place in front of Campanelle - at the Breeders' Cup before, as with Supremacy, blowing it big time on seasonal bow. But, unlike that one, Miss Amulet was stretching out to a mile in a true run heavy ground Irish 1000 Guineas. She patently failed to stay under those much more testing conditions than the tight turning firm ground mile at Keeneland. This straight six with a bit of ease might be ideal and she is expected to bounce back to some degree.
Measure Of Magic had fair form as a juvenile and she's won a couple of six furlong good ground Listed contests already this campaign. A step up is required to challenge the pick of these but she's moving in the right direction. Similar comments apply to the Ado McGuinness-trained A Case Of You, winner of four of his five starts either side of the turn of the year. That quartet includes a Group 3 verdict over Lipizzaner, and another G3 score last time out. His run style is just off the pace so this could set up if he's good enough. Soft side of good looks a prerequisite.
And I must mention a favourite of mine, Laws Of Indices, who was less than a length behind A Case Of You last time and has plenty of solid Group 1 form. The harder they go the better it will suit this second string to Ken Condon's Commonwealth Cup bow.
Most of the others don't really look good enough.
The pace map suggests plenty of early sizzle spread right across the track:
Commonwealth Cup tips
A great race which could easily go the way of one of the overseas pair of Campanelle and Suesa. But I'm going to roll the dice each way with a couple of longer prices in the shape of 25/1 Miss Amulet and 16/1 A Case Of You. The former is dropping back to a more suitable trip and the latter looks really nicely progressive and has optimal conditions. A penny win and place on 28/1 Laws Of Indices, too, because he might just bag one of these big ones. Every chance the trio fail to cut any ice but they're a scintilla of value in a very open race. Should be a cracker.
**
4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)
The scene for the second Group 1 of the afternoon is the round mile over which Classic generation fillies will strut. The winner of the 1000 Guineas (and second in the French 1000) takes on the Irish and German 1000 Guineas winners in a proper smash up for mid-season mile primacy.
Mother Earth deserves her place at the head of proceedings having beaten all bar Coeursamba in two Classics. She was convincing on good to firm at Newmarket, and also quickened well in soft ground to lead at Chantilly before being run down by the winner that day. However, she only just got best of a four-way photo for second while the Newmarket Guineas form received no boosts from either the Oaks or the Irish Guineas.
That Irish equivalent was snatched on the line by the fast finishing Empress Josephine who needed every single yard to get by better fancied stablemate Joan Of Arc. Soft ground and a well run race were a feature of the Empress's two wins (from four starts) and she may get at least most of what she wants again here. Ryan Moore cannot defect from Mother Earth but he will be acutely aware that this filly, ridden as at the Curragh by Seamie Heffernan, may once more prove an unwelcome thorn in his side.
If those are father Aidan's duo, sons Joseph and Donnacha are both represented, too. Joseph sends last year's Group 1 Fillies' Mile winner Pretty Gorgeous to the party; that G1 triumph was on soft ground and while she was only seventh in the Irish 1000, she was beaten just three lengths after a difficult transit. Stripping fitter here, she'd be another credible player if getting back to her Fillies' Mile level. Frankie Dettori rides.
Donnacha's Shale has the outside post, 13, which will not help but she did beat Pretty Gorgeous twice last season - as well as losing to her twice - including when claiming the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs. Her two verdicts over PG were on good ground, her two defeats to that one on softer, the balance of her form suggesting she might not want too much rain (for all that she outclassed her rivals on soft to heavy in her maiden).
The Jenny Come Lately is Ed Walker's Primo Bacio, who was fourth in the Fred Darling before seeming to take a big step forward in a York Listed contest over seven furlongs. That was her first attempt at a mile and it was also on good ground; she's yet to race on anything more juicy than that. She looks short enough in the market.
Rejoining the Guineas thread, Novemba is a dark horse having made all in the German 1000, with fully seven and a half lengths back to the second. Dusseldorf, like this race, is a right-handed round mile and stall one will allow David Egan to pursue the same tactic if connections wish to. It's pretty hard to quantify that form but she did quicken smartly and may just be capable of going wire to wire.
The unexposed trio of Alcohol Free, Snow Lantern and unbeaten dual wide-margin winner Potapova are others with bits of chances in a fascinating and seemingly well up to scratch renewal.
Here's the pace map, excluding the overseas raider Novemba who is drawn 1 and will go forward:
Coronation Stakes tips
A great race in prospect. Luck in running could be a factor and one who will probably be out of trouble up front is 14/1 Novemba. She seems to have matured well from two to three and will give us a run for small money. If Novemba is taken on for the lead the likelihood is that this will be quite a test, as it was when Empress Josephine ran down Joan Of Arc at the Curragh. Her quote of 6/1 is slightly more tempting than the 7/2 about Mother Earth. It wouldn't be a surprise to see 6/1 Pretty Gorgeous go close but she won't be on my ticket this time.
**
5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)
Despite the big field in a handicap on the straight track this typically goes to a filly at the top of the betting lists. Or at least it did prior to 2017, when the previous nine winners were priced 11/1 or shorter. Since then, we've had winners at 20/1, 11/2 and then 33/1 the last twice. And this time it's 12/1 the field. TWELVE to one. Hmm.
Those two double carpet pokes were both trained by Charlie Fellowes and ridden by Hayley Turner so, while Charlie has nothing this time, Hayley rides Professional Widow. Second in three maidens, the Widow made no mistake at Nottingham on handicap bow (1m, good to soft) off 80 last time and is up just three pounds for that.
Jockey braces is a feature of the past six Sandringham winners: before Hayley, Jamie Spencer rode two and before him Frankie Dettori rode two. And, actually, in the four years before that, Richard Kingscote rode two.
Many people are now aware of Jamie Spencer's record on the Ascot straight mile; it sets up perfectly for his patient pace judgement. And, while it always looks dreadful when it doesn't quite come off, that's the nature of the riding style and all punters backing Spencer should know it comes with the territory. For me he's one of the best riders in the weighing room and has one of the best clocks of any jockey riding in Britain: excellent on the front end, excellent (in the right circumstances) from the back.
Let's put some factual meat on that rhetoric bone: since 2008, Spencer has ridden 33 horses in 20+ runner Ascot straight mile handicaps. He's won on four of them (+28 at SP) and made the first four on eleven occasions (each way +64.75). In the same time frame in all field size handicaps over the same course and distance, he's won 12 of 59 (+70.5) and placed on 26 (each way +124.68).
The Charlie Hills-trained Prado gets Spencer's services this time and she's a 33/1 chance at time of writing. It's easy to make her case: in four career starts she won a Salisbury novice before running (a distant) second in a soft ground Group 3 and then a respectable sixth in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes. Her most recent, and only 2021, spin was fourth over the round mile here, a piece of form that ties in with Primo Bacio in the previous race through Creative Flair. We know she'll be held up, as she has been in all her races to date. No better man and all that.
One who showed impressive acceleration in her most recent two races is Glesga Gal. She was flagged on the Fast Finishers report for the second of the pair as a result of the first, and she again showed that rapid last section as can be seen in the image below.
The three coloured blocks relate to 'OMC' sections, which is simply shorthand for the Opening, Middle and Closing parts of the race. As can be seen, in this case over seven furlongs that equated to the start to five furlong pole (S-5), five out to two out (5-2), and two out to the finish (2-0). The top trio of blocks are the RACE sectional data, and the trio inline against the winner are the RUNNER sectional data.
The green shades at the top indicate a fairly evenly run race. Compare against that the dark orange for Glesga Gal's closing quarter mile which she completed in 22.99 seconds and a finishing speed (i.e. the time of that section compared with the time she took to complete the whole race) of 107%. That's impressive.
Finally, look at the running lines bottom left in the image - the five bold figures with superscript numbers adjacent. These equate the five 'call points' - simply points during the race - and we can see what they are from the remaining data in the same row as the running lines, namely S-5, 5-4, 4-2, 2-1, and 1-0. Anyway, from the running lines we know that she was more than three lengths back in fifth at the third call (4-2, so the two furlong pole), had closed to within half a length of the leader by the furlong pole before running away by most of four lengths at the line.
Hopefully for some readers that was worth teasing out, because I strongly believe sectional timing information is a powerful attribute in the form reading kit bag.
Long and short, if she can transfer that acceleration from a turning all weather circuit over seven-eighths to a straight turf mile she'll be a player.
One other to mention in a race where I could mention 16 and miss the winner is Friendly from the Ballydoyle team. She was 'just another' filly from that top tier production line prior to the Irish 1000 Guineas where, as a 100/1 shot, she ran to within three lengths of the winner, eventually finishing sixth. She's still a maiden and this would be a great race in which to break her duck. A mark of 102 and top weight won't make it easy but a replication of the Guineas effort would probably be just about enough.
Sandringham Stakes tips
12/1 the field says it all. My three off the tee - all each way with as many extra places as you can find - are the Jamie Spencer-ridden Prado(33/1), the sectional fast finishing filly Glasga Gal (14/1), and is-she-or-isn't-she-really-as-good-as-she-appeared Irish 1000 Guineas sixth, Friendly(12/1).
**
5.35 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)
A big field mile and a half handicap which is framed by one of those counter-intuitive draw biases with which regular readers will be familiar. How is it that a turning track favours middle to high stalls over the lowest berths? Part of it is to do with low numbers either doing too much too early or getting caught in traffic, I guess, but whatever the reason it's a 'thing' and it might impact the chances of runners here. Note, as ever, that nothing is cast in stone and horses have won from all draws; so don't be tearing up the rule book if trap one gets it done!
Overlaying draw awareness onto the pace map gives this technicolour yawn of a visual:
The green zone is middle but not held up and I'll work loosely in that section for my guesses.
Tritonic was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles in the spring on good ground and has Ryan Moore in the plate. He was fifth in the Triumph Hurdle and, before hurdling, he was a consistent handicapper at this level.
Ben Coen was a bit too far back last time aboard Mirann for his guv'nor Johnny Murtagh but that run showed this lad's suitability for a job like this. He won't mind any ease in the turf and looks well-bred (by Motivator) for a step up to a mile and a half.
The favourite at time of writing is Aaddeey, trained by the Crisfords and ridden by James Doyle. A lightly raced hold up horse he bounded away from his field when trying this trip for the first time the last day; he's up nearly a stone for that but it might not be quite enough. He looks a Group horse for all that he might need luck to show it today.
Zabeel Champion, trained by Mark Johnston, was 'rewarded' for winning his last three races by receiving the unkindest cut of all. Gelded first time, then, he's expected to be close up and may hang on for a place.
Winner of three of his last four, Dark Pine deserves his place. Those victories were all at shorter trips and, as a son of sprinter Dandy Man, I'd have some reservations about stamina for this assignment.
No such reservations with the Gosdens/Dettori entry, Grand Bazaar, who has won a similar race at Newmarket and is closely pegged with Zabeel Champion on his most recent outing.
One with the wrong run style and drawn low is Valyrian Steel. In spite of those potentially insurmountable negatives, I was really taken by this horse when he won on debut at Newcastle. Eight and a half lengths off the lead at the first call that day, he won by half a length going away. He followed up in less flashy fashion next time and has since won two of four further starts. A big strider I feel like this could be his kind of thing.
As always, every chance the winner has eluded me in the above.
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes tips
Very tricky. Too tricky, really. I want a tiny tickle on 12/1 Valyrian Steel, and another little bit each way on 11/1 Tritonic, and a third little bit win only on 13/2 Aaddeey. Interest bets only, though.
**
6.10 Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)
A five furlong sprint handicap to watch somewhere with the wallet safely locked away. 25 three-year-olds spread across the track and hurtling licketty-split for the jam stick. This, my friend, is a cavalry charge!
Get It is an interesting pace horse in the low numbers. Fourth in the Windsor Castle last year over course and distance he won a small field novice at Wolverhampton on his sole spin this term (first off a wind op) and it looks as though trainer Clive Cox and connections have tried to protect his mark for this.
Even lower in the stalls is Caroline Dale, third in last year's Group 2 Queen Mary at the Royal meeting, and the Group 3 Princess Margaret over six here, and in a Listed contest at Newbury (soft). This will be her first run of the season so fitness is taken on trust, but she's quick and proven over course and distance.
23 others who could win...
Palace Of Holyrood Stakes tips
Too hard, but I'll have a florin each way on 20/1 Get It and 33/1 Caroline Daleand watch the high numbers sweep the board!
**
And that's that for our preview pieces this week. I hope you've been entertained if not informed by them, and that your betting has been both fun and profitable. It's not easy at Royal Ascot, nor is it supposed to be! Saturday is a day for you to find your own way (assuming you haven't been already), and I wish you luck with that when the time comes.
I’m taking over from Matt for day three of Royal Ascot, but don’t worry, Matt will be back tomorrow. Thursday can often be one of the toughest betting days and with no less than three big field handicaps bringing the curtain down on this card most will be looking for some early winners!
The biggest question mark hanging over Thursday’s racing is the weather, and of course it’s effect on the ground. There are thunderstorms forecast overnight from Wednesday into Thursday and everyone knows how unpredictable these can be. You can get hit with 40mm of rain whilst the next town along can get nothing. They put 10mm of water on the straight course on both Saturday and Monday just to keep it good to firm so it will take plenty of rain to soften this surface, but plenty of rain may well be coming.
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)
Not much to go on here! Early pace is no disadvantage over the minimum trip here and a high draw is generally preferable over this trip. If there is a real star in this field they’d be well capable of overcoming either of those biases though.
Wesley Ward won this in 2013 and 2018 and there will be no hanging around for his runners. Lucci appears to be the stable first string and given he won just a 4 runner race last time he’s very difficult to assess, other than he looks very quick! He could be difficult to peg back from his high draw. Stable mate Nakatomi beat 10 runners when winning his only start on the dirt last time, also showing loads of speed. What effect any rain has on this pair is unknown, but Wesley Ward’s contingent generally prefer fast ground.
Aidan O’Brien also has two wins in this in the past decade and he saddles Cadamosto here. Amazingly he’s been a non runner six times already this season, twice because of soft ground. His sire No Nay Never won this in 2013 and his progeny often act on softer ground so he wouldn’t be without a hope if plenty of rain does fall but stall 2 might not be ideal.
Clive Cox’s runners massively outperform market expectations at Royal Ascot and he won this in 2012 with Reckless Abandon. This year he is represented by Instinctive Move who won well at Bath last time out. That form has been let down a few times since.
Only one runner can boast two wins from two runs and that is William Haggas’ Second Wind. He’s led on both starts so far, defied a penalty in a novice race beating a subsequent winner, looks well drawn in stall 15 and could be interesting at a fair price.
Norfolk Stakes Tips
Lots of unknowns so difficult to bet with much confidence but SECOND WIND has fewer question marks than most and he’s also won on both good to firm and good to soft which is a bonus ahead of an unsettled weather forecast. It will be interesting to watch the Wesley Ward runners in the market regardless of what happens with the weather.
3.05 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)
A likely short priced favourite here in the shape of Mohaafeth for William Haggas. He was relatively well fancied for the Derby before being pulled out because of the rain so he definitely won’t want to see lots of wet stuff and is likely to be withdrawn if the ground is on the soft side. He was impressive in a small field last time out at listed level and looks a very exciting son of Frankel.
One Ruler carries a 4lb penalty in this courtesy of his Group 3 Autumn Stakes victory last season and he faces a quick turnaround having been well beaten in the Derby just twelve days ago. Both his runs this term have come in Group 1 races so sixth places in both the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby can be forgiven and he might find this intermediate trip suits perfectly. He’s versatile with regards to the ground but is vulnerable to an improver.
One feature of this race is a potential lack of pace Aidan O’Brien’s Roman Empire looking the likely pace angle.
It’s not easy to make all over this course and distance, even with an easy lead, and he’ll need to improve to take this having been well enough beaten last time in the Dante.
Given a lack of strong pace it could pay to race prominently here. In handicaps in similar conditions prominent racers have a 47.62% place strike rate. Movin Time is likely to be prominent and he looked an improved performer at 3 when taking a maiden in fairly impressive style last time out. The runner up in that maiden won by 6 lengths next time out and runs in Wednesday’s Queen’s Vase and Movin Time looks capable of further progress over middle distances this season.
Hampton Court Stakes Tips
Not an easy race to figure out but it could be worth chancing MOVIN TIME to prove up to this level (and possibly better). He may enjoy a tactical advantage and whilst several of these have already tried and failed to win good races, he comes here very much on the up.
3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo fillies)
A key form line here could be Newbury’s Fillies Trial Stakes in which the unbeaten Eshaada edged out Gloria Mundi with Aristea and Twisted Reality back in 3rd and 4th respectively. Gloria Mundi was well placed off a slow gallop that day and is poorest drawn of the quartet here so she could be worth taking on. Eshaada undoubtedly looks the one with most potential of the remaining trio and she’s also the best drawn here so she looks interesting, especially if there is rain.
John Gosden has won three of the last four renewals of this race and if he doesn’t win it with Gloria Mundi, the mount of Frankie Dettori, he still has chances with Taslima and Loving Dream. The former looked in need of further when third at listed level last time out. The winner of that race finished 2nd to Snowfall in the Oaks since so it wasn’t a bad listed race but you’d have preferred Taslima to have shown a bit more speed, even at 10f. Loving Dream was well enough beaten in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on soft ground and on his previous good ground 2nd she has plenty of work to do to reverse form with the better fancied Noon Star here.
In hindsight Noon Star’s 3.75 length defeat at the hands of Snowfall looks pretty good form. She’s impeccably bred being by Galileo out of Midday and looks the potential class act in the field, both on form so far and breeding, so she shouldn’t be underestimated.
Aidan O’Brien won this in 2014, 2016 and 2018 so anything he runs commends plenty of respect. This year’s sole runner is Divinely, who has looked happiest on a soft surface to date. It’s a quick turnaround after the Epsom Oaks though so whilst she’d have a decent chance on form, especially if it turns soft, she’ll need to have recovered quickly from a fairly tough race.
Ribblesdale Stakes Tips
An open contest which seems to be the feature of the day. NOON STAR looks a very promising type who has shown form on a variety of going so far which is enough to persuade me she could be the one in this. Eshaada is potentially the biggest danger whilst Divinely has the form to win this but he’s a risk after contesting the Oaks so recently.
4.15 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)
Can Stradivarius equal Yeats’ record four wins in a row in this? Rain would be considered a negative for him but he’s won this on soft for the past two years so it’s possible all rain does is make him a better price.
This definitely looks a tougher renewal than last year though. Tough front runner Subjectivist won’t mind any rain and although he’s yet to prove his stamina, he’s got better the further he has gone. Last year’s Derby winner Serpentine could hamper Subjectivist’s chances though by taking him on early.
Stamina was always going to be Trueshan’s forte as he made his second racecourse start over a mile and a half. He enjoyed the step up to two miles when beating Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup by a wide margin. That form shouldn’t be taken literally but Trueshan confirmed himself a smart horse when finishing runner up to Japan at Chester last month. He’s fairly ground dependent so will want as much rain as possible but if it comes he’d have a good chance.
Spanish Mission has improved as a stayer in the past year or so and won what was admittedly a pretty poor renewal of the Doncaster Cup last year. His Yorkshire Cup victory last time out was a career best when accounting for Santiago who reopposes here. He’s one that won’t want any rain and might not enjoy this test as much as some of the slowly run races he has been running in over shorter.
Connections will be hoping the extra distance can help Santiago reverse that form with Spanish Mission. He got within 2.25 lengths of Stradivarius at Goodwood last year and the key to this horse could be rain. His best performances seem to have come when getting cut in the ground and a combination of this trip on softish ground could see a career best, especially with a couple of front runners in the field.
Ascot Gold Cup Tips
The going will have a massive effect on this race. On faster ground STRADIVARIUS looks a very good thing to equal Yeats’ record. He can often come there like he’s going to win by a wide margin only to end up toughing it out. In fact eleven of his last twelve wins have come by a winning distance of 1.75 lengths or less which is relatively 'unimpressive' for a horse considered a bit of a superstar. If you can find an ‘unders’ bet on the winning distance that might make him much better value.
If the ground was to end up softer than good Stradivarius would still be the most likely winner but the each way value could swing towards SANTIAGO who is still unexposed as a stayer and has spent most of his career racing on ground that was probably faster than ideal.
5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, class 2 handicap, 3yo)
All eyes will be on the Royal Hunt Cup ahead of placing any bets on this and that’s the race most likely to highlight a potential draw bias. Without the benefit of knowing the Hunt Cup result at the time of writing we’ll rely on the Geegeez data to give us the draw pointers.
The data suggests no strong draw bias here but it’s worth remembering that sometimes nearside is favoured and sometimes far side is favoured, which is why both sides of the draw have performed well. It can be easier to get a run when drawn on a flank and the pace data strongly suggests you want to be with something that is patiently ridden so backing central drawn hold up performers will often be riskier than wide drawn hold ups.
Mithras is the early market leader in this for Gosden and Dettori. He only just got home in a traditionally strong Newbury handicap on seasonal debut but this year’s renewal has worked out really poorly and the fact that Mithras was well enough beaten at Sandown next time out is very disappointing and in line with the form of that Newbury run, even if this latest run was in listed company. Perhaps the ground was too soft last time out (might be soft again here) but an 8lb rise for that narrow Newbury win might still be harsh and he could one to take on.
Air To Air is one I’ve had in mind for this race for a while, he looks one of those horses that will be ideally suited by Ascot’s straight mile. He’s been called a few names for seemingly not going through with his effort in the past but after being gelded in March he seems an improved horse. He may have been beaten over 4 lengths when odds on on his following start but he was the only one to make up any ground over what now seems an inadequate 7f. That race has worked out extremely well too.
Bowman, who very much got the run of the race, hasn’t run well since but the runner up has won three times since, the 3rd won on his next start and the 5th went close last time out. Air To Air has since won twice himself and he took apart a fairly decent field last time out on his first start over a mile. He’s a bit more exposed than some but he’s improving and looks the typical Spencer sort on this straight course. His latest win came on fast ground but his previous win in novice company came on soft ground. That softer ground might not be perfect for him but at least he’s proved his versatility.
Roger Varian won this last year and assuming his reserve doesn’t get in he has two high drawn runners in this. Raadobarg has won all three starts this season including the Silver Bowl at Haydock in heavy ground last time out. He’s chased leaders in all three starts this season and could end up too close to the pace, plus he’ll want plenty of rain. Dinoo is the other one for Varian. He’s still a maiden after three runs but split two 100+ rated horses on debut on fast ground before blowing the start in a Group 3 on his second and final start last season. He was once again slowly away in a maiden this season and poorly placed off a modest gallop. You’d hope with a mark of 93 he could have overcome this sort of thing but the mile promises to suit and he could run well if the ground stays fast.
A 7lb rise for winning a 5 runner handicap by less than a length seems a harsh punishment for Aerion Power’s latest success but he shouldn’t be underestimated. The runner up and 3rd came out of that contest and won making that 7lb rise look a bit more acceptable. Stall 1 and a prominent racing style are offputting though and he’d appeal more for something like the mile handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day or one of the 3yo handicaps at the July Festival the following week.
Britannia Stakes Tips
Many of the fancied runners in this seem quite likely to race not far off the pace which is rarely the place to be over the straight mile, especially in this race where there is a lot of early pace spread across the track. Perhaps some will be ridden more patiently but nothing is likely to be ridden with more patience than AIR TO AIR. Confidence would be increased if the ground gets no softer than good and if some of the lower drawn runners go close in the Royal Hunt Cup.
5.35 King George V Stakes (1m4f, class 2 handicap, 3yo)
Only a handicap but often won by a very smart sort, last year’s winner Hukum scored at Group 3 level later in the season. The draw may have a fairly large bearing on the result here.
A massive 17 of last 24 12f handicaps with 16 runners or more on ground ranging from good to firm down to good to soft have been won by double figure draws. Low draws have a PRB of just 0.41 with middle draws and high draws earning PRBs of 0.54 and 0.55. Fairly strong preference would be for something breaking from stall 8 or higher and this information hopefully makes narrowing down this difficult field a little easier.
Handicap debutant Nagano heads the market early for Roger Varian and he’s going to have to be extremely useful to win this from stall 2. He looks at least fairly handicapped off 94 based on his win over Mystical Dawn on his penultimate run (that runner has since gone close off 90) but he’s difficult to back from this draw in such a competitive race.
This is often won by a top trainer so it’s a surprise that John Gosden hasn’t had the winner of this since 1997. He runs First Light here who might be just about okay in stall 7, for all higher would probably have been better. Some will see form with John Leeper and be drawn to that but in that race, when First Light was 3rd, Moktasaab was 2nd, 2.5 lengths ahead of First Light, and he’s since been beaten in a handicap off 79. First Light has since won a soft ground Ripon maiden by 12 lengths but that race didn’t take much winning and there are probably better handicapped rivals, especially if it doesn’t turn soft here.
Sir Lamorack represents Aidan O’Brien who won this in 2019 and he seems to have a nice draw in 11. He ran on soft and heavy as a 2yo but his two runs this season have come on the all weather and good ground. He was withdrawn at Chester due to good to soft ground which might be an indication this runner will want the rain to stay away. He’s already proved himself in handicaps, he was an easy winner of a 10f handicap at Leopardstown last time out and the placed horses from that have placed again so it was okay form. He’s up 15lbs for that win so he’ll need to improve for the step up in trip, which he should do.
Kondo Isami is interesting on his York form. He beat Tashkhan by a short head there and Tashkhan won 3.25 lengths next time out. That runner actually reopposes here but Kondo Isami is 8lbs better off this time around so should have no problem confirming form. Kondo Isami got collared late on next time out at Doncaster over further and he might not have quite stayed, but he was also beaten by a runner completing a four timer so it wasn’t a bad effort. He looks Mark Johnston’s best chance and is well enough drawn in 9.
If the ground got very testing one who might prove overpriced is Act Of Wisdom. He was a heavy ground winner over 10f as a 2yo which suggests he’ll be a strong stayer and fast ground didn’t suit last time out at Newmarket. That 5th last time was still a good effort though with the winner and 3rd winning next time out. From stall 14 he could outrun his odds if the word soft appears in the going by race time.
King George V Stakes Tips
Plenty in this who could be anything and it’s a race that is potentially more interesting going forward than it is a betting medium here. If having a punt the value in this contest could lie with KONDO ISAMI if the ground is no worse than good, he’ll enjoy a likely fast pace and has plenty in his favour. If it’s softer than good then ACT OF WISDOM would come into the equation and he could be a bit underestimated in this. They might not be as potentially well handicapped as some but are both capable of running into a place at least granted suitable ground conditions.
6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, class 2 handicap, 3yo+)
What an easy race to end the card with! As usual in these contests the draw and pace will play their part. By the time this race is run there may be a clear draw bias to either side but without that information at the time of writing it seems an advantage to be drawn in either low double figures or very high (20+).
There isn’t such a need to be held up over this distance as there is on the straight mile. There is still some benefit to being patiently ridden but early pace holds up much better than it does in big fields over a furlong further.
You don’t see many 3yos run in this but William Haggas heads the early betting with Aldaary. He’s a course and distance winner but might have been better served by a mile and he’ll definitely want the rain.
Boardman is interesting chasing a four timer. The way he travels through his races means he should be ideally suited by this course but he’s potentially drawn a little lower than ideal in 9. He beat Ejtilaab last time out and that horse won his next start. He’s another that wants a little bit of rain.
One that won’t want the rain is Karibana who was a bit of an eyecatcher on soft ground here in May before winning at Chelmsford, nailing a well handicapped front runner on the line. He looks like he’d be ideally suited by fast ground at this course and although stall 11 is okay statistically a higher draw might have been preferable.
Persuasion has to be of some interest. He’s looks to have been saved for this since winning at Haydock six weeks ago.
The runner up has won since from a 3lb higher mark, the 4th went extremely close next time out on ground that didn’t suit and has the chance to frank the form on Wednesday in the finale and even the 5th went close on his first run on fast ground since. Persuasion only went up 3lbs for that win and whilst most of his form is on faster ground, he has finished 2nd on heavy ground so even if the ground softens he should be fine. Stall 24 looks good at this stage.
Buckingham Palace Stakes Tips
If the ground stayed on the fast side I’d be inclined to forgive Karibana for stall 11 (low double figures do have a decent record after all) and get involved each way. If betting early or simply looking for a solid selection in this contest PERSUASION seems to tick all the boxes and he can even be backed if the bad weather hits the course as he should be fine regardless of underfoot conditions, something that can’t be said about many here. The majority of the pace in this race is drawn high which could give Persuasion an extra edge over Karibana, even if the ground stays fast.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/palacepier_stjamesspalacestakes2020.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-06-15 19:21:352021-06-15 22:51:22Royal Ascot 2021: Day 3 Preview, Tips
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We can see from her running lines (on the 'show sectionals' component of the inline form on the race card) that she was seventh, more than four lengths behind the leader at the second point of call (half a mile from home), and she was still four lengths back in fifth at the two pole, the third call point in the image. A furlong later, the fourth call point, she'd taken a narrow lead which, by the line (another furlong later) she'd extended to six and a half. She's smart.
