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Old Newton Cup 2021 Preview: Make It Aaddeey To Remember

2 July 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Saturday is one of my favourite days on the racing calendar with the cards at Sandown and Haydock generally looking excellent betting material. This preview will be looking at the Old Newton Cup, one of the best middle distance handicaps of the season. This race will be run at 3.15pm at Haydock over twelve furlongs and this is a race for 4yo+.

The ground looks like it will be drying at Haydock, possibly leaving us on the fast side of good by the off time, although there are some showers forecast during the day. At the time of writing they are expected to remain light.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

A maximum field of seventeen are set to go to post here, with two reserves on standby if there are any early non runners. Is there a draw bias over this trip in big fields at Haydock?

Big fields aren’t the norm over this distance at Haydock so even if we include races with as few as 13 runners we still have a fairly limited sample size. We therefore shouldn’t get too carried away with the data unless seeing some very concrete results.

The overall draw data seems even, looking at the win data, but in small samples this can be misleading. The place percentage data has low and then high favoured over middle but with a smaller sample size we probably want to be concentrating on PRB as each runner is contributing to the data set, not just three or four runners.

The PRB figures for low, middle and high are 0.55, 0.49 and 0.46 which points towards the lower the better, with higher draws definitely having more work to do to get involved.

With a potentially strong draw advantage here, but also a small sample size, we’ll want to check how the individual stall data plays out. Firstly we want to see where a good draw starts to become a bad draw and secondly we need to check how legitimate the data looks in this smaller sample size.

Before we go any further, let’s establish how trustworthy this data is. The top five PRB figures for individual stalls are all 8 or lower, five of the worst six PRB figures belong to stalls 9 or above. This doesn’t look particularly random. If we sort all of this data by PRB3 the best performing nine stalls are the nine lowest drawn, the worst performing eight draws are all those in double figures. This definitely doesn’t look random.

It's not as though higher draws can’t win though. Stalls 15 and 16 have the second and third highest win percentages. Double figured stalls have won seven of the nineteen races examined. Also looking at the place percentages, stalls 16 and 14 have the best scores. A higher draw looks more like a penalty of a few pounds rather than a reason to completely oppose a horse.

Pace

Looking at a similar data sample, hopefully we can identify any possible pace bias for this race.

The win percentage data implies not much difference between front running, racing prominently or racing in mid division, with only being held up a disadvantage. There is some merit to the win data, it’s easier to run into the places against a pace bias than it is to win against a pace bias. However in this sample size the place percentage data is going to prove more reliable.

The place percentages tell us that leading can be most advantageous. Front runners have a place percentage of 28.57%, racing prominently is next best with a place percentage of 23.17% and although it drops again to mid division (19.48%) the runners that are held up perform almost as well as those who race prominently 22.43%. That suggests there isn’t a strong pace bias – yes any horse getting an easy lead is likely to outperform their odds but that goes for any race at any course.

In this particular race the pace setup of the race seems much more likely to cause a pace bias (either way) than the course does.

Old Newton Cup Pace Map

So here is the pace map for this race, compiled nicely for us by Geegeez Gold.

A potentially strong pace here which could compromise the chances of those ridden aggressively and improve the claims of the more patiently ridden runners.

The main pace angles are potentially Grand Bazaar, Lost Eden and Zabeel Champion who have led early on two of their last three runs. Brilliant Light can sit just off the pace but has also led in one of his most recent runs.

The likes of My Frankel and The Trader tend to race prominently and should keep the front runners honest throughout.

Draw and Pace Combination

This part of the draw tab is always worth checking in bigger fields.

Low draws seem to perform well regardless of their run style. There could be a concern about those in mid division from low draws but given those held up perform well from low draws, this could just be a quirk of slightly limited data.

For the horses drawn in the middle stalls it seems a front running ride can be a big advantage. The majority of the early pace in this race is drawn towards the middle so if they don’t go off to fast they are well drawn for that run style.

As for the higher drawn runners, those that race nearer the pace perform much better than those that race nearer the rear. Presumably being held up from a high draw results in them being dropped out and forfeiting too much ground early in the race to recover later in the race.

The Runners

These are the runners for the 2021 Old Newton Cup, in early odds order.

Longsider

A handicap debutant for Sir Mark Prescott. He was pencilled in to have his first run since February in last week’s Northumberland Plate over half a mile further but wasn’t deemed ready for that, connections deciding to get an extra week of work into him before going for this race. A potential early warning sign that he won’t be at his fittest.

His form does stand up though. He beat a nothing field over just an extended mile in January 2020 in easy fashion and improved for the step up to this trip last time out at Lingfield in a novice stakes, after just over a year off on stable debut, having previously raced for David Lanigan. He beat the now 89 rated Raymond by 2.5 lengths that day, giving him 5lbs. You could argue that he ran near a mark of 100+ that day the way he beat Raymond but if you watch the race back, Raymond was better than the bare result and has probably improved since for tackling longer distances. Either way a mark of 92 almost certainly underestimates Longsider.

There are negatives too though. He’s going to be breaking from the widest stall, he’s yet to run on turf (that shouldn’t be a problem though, his sire has a better handicap place strike rate on faster turf than all weather surfaces) and there is that doubt about how fit he is for this as he’s clearly been very difficult to train.

Grand Bazaar

A non runner at Royal Ascot due to soft ground and conditions will be more suitable here. He was steadily progressive last season on better ground and can certainly be forgiven a flop on his last start of 2020 which came over 14f on soft ground. He returned in good form at Newmarket when third, but only beaten a short head and a neck. The two that finished ahead of him both went on to place at Royal Ascot in competitive handicaps and it’s surprising that the handicapper left his mark unchanged after that effort.

He’s drawn okay in stall 8 but the question mark has to be field size. His wins last season were in field sizes of 6, 5 and 4 and his good run this season was in a 5 runner field. He hasn’t had many chances in bigger fields but was beaten in field sizes of 9, 10 and 11 last year and given his running style it stands to reason that he could be better in smaller fields. There is nothing wrong with his handicap mark or his form but whether he can run to that level here is open to question.

Aaddeey

A consistent runner who has had just the six starts. His form on good ground is 2121 whereas his worst two performances have come on soft and heavy. He was an okay 5^th at Royal Ascot last time out and if not for the ground being an excuse you could easily argue that the handicapper has him pegged after a 13lb rise for a wide margin win at Newmarket on his previous start. On closer inspection though he could, and should, still be well handicapped.

On seasonal debut at Newbury, he was slowly away and strong at the finish over what now looks an inadequate 10f. He finished runner up in what has turned out to be a very strong handicap. The winner, who was less than a length ahead, is now running off a 13lb higher mark. Next time out Aaddeey won a small field Newmarket handicap by an easy 4.5 lengths so a 13lb rise seems fair, especially when you consider that the runner up won comfortably on his next start. The 3^rd home, beaten 9.5 lengths, has finished runner up on both starts since so if anything a 13lb rise for that run looks quite lenient.

Given the ground went against him at Ascot, 5^th in a strong race was a decent effort. He looks ready for even further already so a strong pace would help him (he’ll surely be a contender for the Ebor next month) and the only real negative is the draw. Stall 13 isn’t the end of the world but it isn’t ideal either, especially for one that is normally patiently ridden.

Valyrian Steel

A winner on his last two all weather runs at this distance, making his all weather form figures 111. In comparison his turf form figures now read 145. His turf win came against a now 66 rated maiden and he’s been well enough beaten in both turf handicap runs, weak at the finish on both occasions. His turf mark has gone up for winning on the all weather and even his all weather form doesn’t particularly stand up to much scrutiny, the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th from his most recent (narrow) win have all been beaten since. Opposable.

Zabeel Champion

Trained by Mark Johnston, who has won three of the last eight renewals of this. Resumed progress this season and has now won five of his last nine starts. He was third last time out at Ascot, ahead of Aaddeey, but with conditions more in his favour. He’s consistent so being nudged up 1lb for his recent place isn’t a concern, it’s just a question of how much improvement does he have left in him after twelve starts? He doesn’t have to lead but will surely be very close to the early gallop and the inclusion of several other front runners in this field could compromise his chance in this, although there is no reason why he can’t run well again.

Midnights Legacy

Took advantage of a race rather falling apart on his most recent run, although he was handicapped to win a race of that nature. He’s four from eight on turf on the flat and has won two out of three here at Haydock, seeming not to stay on his only defeat here when tackling 14f. He’s the sort to continue running well but the winning distance of his last race, which hasn’t worked out, means he’s gone up 8lbs and others now look better handicapped in this.

My Frankel

Unbeaten in two all weather starts but only one from four on turf. He does have some good turf form to his name though. He beat the subsequently 87 rated Naswaary by 1.5 lengths in a Leicester maiden off a long absence and even ran okay in Palace Pier’s Sandown maiden over a trip that would have been far too short.

The key to My Frankel seems to be a fast surface and he hasn’t had that on his last two turf runs which have resulted in distances beaten of 36 lengths and 28 lengths. The ground is unlikely to be rattling quick here so you’d have to have some reservations but he’s capable of running well if transferring his all weather or fast turf form to this contest, for all stall 15 is a concern.

Dark Jedi

Improved by a stone last season after transferring from Charles Hills to Tim Easterby. His wins came at 9f and 10f but he was runner up to Euchen Glen in the Old Borough Cup here on soft ground so there are no question marks at all over stamina. That winner has since rated a stone higher whereas Dark Jedi is only rated 2lbs here so it’s difficult to make a case for him being badly handicapped, especially as he’s completely unexposed at 12f+.

He didn’t make his seasonal debut until a week ago and would need to improve on that run but it’s entirely possible that will have brought him on, with this potentially the plan all season. Even if he has come on for that he appeals more as a place bet than a win bet.

Pablo Escobarr

Highly tried throughout his career and successful at both listed and Group 3 level. He’s only rated 3lbs lower than his highest official rating which probably doesn’t leave him well handicapped, although he did place in a Meydan handicap off a 1lb higher mark on good ground over this distance, but was sent off favourite for that race so still ran slightly below expectations. Hasn’t been at his best on his two runs this season, finding only a little improvement in a first time visor last time out. That headgear is retained and a more truly run race here might suit him better but this requires a career best when he’s not running within a good few pounds of his best form this season.

Win O Clock

Disappointing at Ascot last time out given the ground had seemingly come in his favour, dropping away in the straight. He’s only been dropped 1lb for that run and whilst he is fairly handicapped when there is plenty of juice in the ground, he is almost certainly badly handicapped on fast ground. He’ll probably be well placed in this from stall 4 but that’s the biggest positive and unless they receive lots of rain on Saturday he’s very opposable.

Soto Sizzler

Runner up to Midnights Legacy last time out at Epsom, a course where he tends to run his best races. This looks a much stronger race and although the return to slightly better ground should suit, he’d only appeal against this field if the race was being run at Epsom. On this more traditional course he looks to have place prospects at best.

Brilliant Light

Still relatively lightly raced and has the run style to overcome stall 14. He’s run at trips between 10f and 14f this year, probably best suited by this distance on the balance of his form. He’s dropped 5lbs from his last two runs which still leaves him 6lbs above the rating of 93, off which he was 3^rd in Meydan in February. That run was the last time he raced without headgear, which is left off here, and Marco Ghiani’s soon to be dispensed with 3lbs claim is very useful. The odds of around 18/1 probably underestimate his chances but his most recent runs have been disappointing.

Pirate King

Big improver on the all weather over the winter, winning four of his seven races. Hasn’t run since January but was due to run at Royal Ascot until the ground turned soft so shouldn’t be short of work. On his latest run he beat Midnights Legacy who reopposes here on 7lb worse terms so he’s well handicapped and overpriced on that form.

He has only raced on artificial surfaces in ten runs for Charlie Fellowes so it’s difficult to figure out if his improvement has been due to joining that stable or switching to the all weather. He didn’t look well handicapped on turf for Harry Dunlop off much lower marks but didn’t immediately improve when switched to the all weather for Fellowes. In fact his Kempton form doesn’t give him much hope here, all his improvement came at Lingfield. That has to be a concern here off a career high mark.

Scarlet Dragon

Made his move and hit the front far too early when looking for a repeat win of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, ending up well beaten in the end. He’s now 3lbs higher than his 2020 Ascot success but he took advantage of some below par performances that day and given his best performances have generally come with plenty of cut in the ground under Hollie Doyle he has work to do here.

Alounak

Formerly smart but has not matched any of his old form since joining Andrew Balding at the start of last season. In fact he’s struggled to beat any runners home in the majority of his races but he has run well on soft ground at the last two Royal meetings at Ascot. He was runner up in the Hardwicke last season and wasn’t beaten too far in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes this year. This isn’t soft ground or Ascot though and he’s only dropped 2lbs which gives him ground to make up on the likes of Zabeel Champion and Aaddeey.

The Trader

Not the most consistent but capable on his day. He was well beaten last time out behind Midnights Legacy at Epsom and seemed in the grip of the handicapper on his previous run. Decent ground here will suit but even if he bounces back to his absolute best this is much deeper than anything he’s been competitive in before.

Lost Eden

He's been potentially overlooked slightly in the market here given he was disputing favouritism in the early betting for the handicap won by Midnights Legacy at Epsom. He was withdrawn from that race because the ground turned soft and that was also the reason he became a non runner at Ascot. Better ground here should therefore suit but he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped on what he's shown to date. He won a weak all weather novice in April by 9 lengths which gave the handicapper the unenviable task of giving him a rating. The runner up in that race was a now 66 rated maiden and Lost Eden, although remaining with scope to improve, has done little to suggest he can win this off 96.

The Verdict

There aren’t many at big prices here that make much appeal. Lost Eden is probably overpriced based on the ‘could be anything’ factor but his form doesn’t really back up his mark. Brilliant Light could run well at a price but he’s very risky based on his Royal Ascot reappearance. Dark Jedi could improve on his seasonal reappearance but the bookies have taken no chances with his price given he’s much more likely to run into a place than win.

Longsider is the one with loads of potential. Just a week ago though he was deemed to not be ready enough for the Northumberland Plate and he’s clearly been difficult to train so he is opposable at the price, especially from his car park draw.

Grand Bazaar has good enough form to win this but still has to prove himself in bigger fields and he shouldn’t get an easy lead here.

The best bet in this contest comes down to how much significance you put into the draw data. Zabeel Champion is a pretty safe bet from stall 7. If they don’t go a crazy pace he should be well enough placed, the pace data suggests the lead is the best place here and prominent racers have often done well in this particular race. He ran a rock solid race at Ascot, proving he is as good as ever if not miles ahead of his mark anymore. He's very closely matched with Grand Bazaar on their Newmarket form but Grand Bazaar may be too reliant on small fields.

At a similar sort of price to Zabeel Champion, AADDEEY seems the one capable of rating much higher. He’s still very lightly raced and has only been given one chance at this distance on decent ground and he beat a subsequent winner with limitless ease on that occasion. He’s much higher in the weights here but ran well on the wrong ground last time in a good race. It seems the only things that can probably keep him out of the frame here are a draw bias and a pace bias. He can race in mid division and there should be a good early gallop so the pace bias isn’t too much of a concern, it’s just the draw. With a lower draw he’d rate a confident bet but stall 13 isn’t so terrible that it can rule him out here. Mark Crehan even takes off a useful 3lbs, he’s two from four for the stable when riding single figure priced runners.

Sectional Timing, and How To Use It

30 June 2021/in Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Much has been made of sectional timing in the past 18 months or so, including by me, and it can indeed offer great insight into how races were run. But the challenge for publishers, including here at geegeez.co.uk, is to successfully answer the question, "How do I use sectional timing to inform my betting?". That will be the main focus of this article, but before that a spot of revision.

What Are Sectionals? And why should we care?

I recorded this video a little over a year ago and it is actually very good (I wouldn't normally say that about one of my recordings!) in terms of breaking things down. So, if you prefer to watch/listen rather than read, this is for you. If you prefer to read, scroll beneath the video box...

[Hint: if I speak too slowly for you, click the cog icon bottom right and change the playback speed to something more suitable]

I've written previously in some of my Clock Watcher posts about various terms and concepts related to sectionals, and those can be accessed from here.

The following blog posts are also useful if you want to really understand sectional timing concepts (and I would encourage you to block out a bit of time and work through them). They're here:

Why Sectionals Matter - by Tony Keenan

What Is The Point of Sectional Timing in Horse Racing - by me

An Introduction to Sectional Timing - by Simon Rowlands

Tony's piece is quite high level and a good flavour of the subject; mine is a little lower to the ground but still overview stuff; while Simon's excellent paper is chapter and verse on both the mechanics and some practical applications of sectional data.

Understanding Sectional Data Terminology

Let's quickly whizz through some of the key terms and concepts applied to sectional content. First up, what even is a section?

Section

A section is simply a part of a race. A race is a 'section', though given that it is the start-to-finish section it doesn't tell us much about the sub-plots within the narrative. Sections are not quite arbitrary and they can be of varying lengths depending on who/where the intel is coming from.

Here at geegeez.co.uk, we have three different section types: by furlong, call points and OMC.

By furlong, as the name suggests, has a variable number of sections depending on how many furlongs there are in the race; 'call points' breaks a race into five roughly equal chunks; and OMC breaks a race into Opening, Middle and Closing chunks.

Sectionals

Within each section, we can establish the amount of time taken, distance travelled, and position in the race (and lengths behind the leader, or in front), as well as things like stride length and cadence (which are very much for another day).

Once we have, for instance, the sectional time, we can make comparisons: with the same horse in other race sections, with other horses in the race within the same section, and with historical data for races run over the same track and trip.

Sectional percentage

Rather than raw times, e.g. a 12 second furlong, we tend to convert those times into percentages of the overall race time, e.g. the horse completed the five furlong race in 60 seconds and recorded a 12 second furlong in the middle of the race, therefore that sectional percentage was 100% (see image). Do not get unduly hung up on the 'how'!

Finishing speed percentage

Finishing speed percentage is a sectional percentage where the 'to' of the section is the finish. For example, the section might be two furlongs out to the finish. We calculate finishing speed percentage in the same way as we do other sections, and this specific number tells us whether horses were finishing faster or slower than 100%. More pertinently, when compared with 'par', it tells us about the performance against historical standards.

This is important because some courses have, for instance, uphill finishes where the closing section will be slower than it is for level or downhill sections of the same track. Runners in all other races over that course and distance (and indeed other distances at the same course) will have encountered the same topology, allowing for comparisons. [Hopefully that makes sense]

Par

Par in the sectional context is an attempt at defining how much energy (in percentage terms) 'should' be expended in each part of a race based on our understanding of prior truly run races over the same course and distance. What is a truly run race? Good question. It is one where it can reasonably be considered that the leader at each section went close to optimally in terms of efficient use of its energy.

We calculate par not by averages but by a logarithmic scale of race rank percentiles. [Again, these are mechanics, you don't need to know this: I merely share for the more curious!]

In layman's terms, the par percentile in a five-furlong race (where most are truly run, but a fair number are overly fast) will be greater than the par percentile in a mile and a half race, where many more contests are tactical. Specifically, we use the 38th percentile to establish par for five-furlong races at a given track, and the 20th percentile for twelve furlong races.

Par is a line in the sand against which to compare performances in a race.

Enough with the terminology, how do we actually use this stuff?

Using Sectionals to Understand the Past, and the Future

As with all form study, sectionals provide historical performance context for today's race: they help us understand what a horse is capable of - and, importantly, what it might have to offer under a slightly more favourable setup/ride. This video outlines some scenarios to mine for and, if you prefer blog posts, beneath the video is a 'words and pictures' version of the same.

Upgrade figures (UP)

Let's look at some examples, starting with a very obvious one originally flagged in this post.

Punchbowl Flyer came into the Wokingham unbeaten in his previous two races and exited that race having finished no better than eighth of 21. But he was first home on his side of the draw and, crucially for this article, had a solid upgrade figure - see the right hand UP column in the image below.

The UP column contains sectional upgrade figures calculated based on finishing speed performance against par. A figure greater than five or so implies a horse may have been compromised by the run of the race and may have more to offer next time.

As we can see (in the middle of the image below), Punchbowl Flyer returned to winning ways just a few days later.

The coloured blobs show how PF raced in the Wokingham based on his time spent in each section: fast (orange), even to fast (yellow), even (green), slow (blue), slower (bluer)! Like many others, though to a greater degree, he went too hard too soon.

The line above the coloured blobs show his 'Future Form': a win at 11/4 in a £10k handicap.

Making a list of upgrade horses is a simple way of highlighting runners who might be ready to win soon.

Here's an example of a little novice sprint at Wolverhampton the other day, where a contested lead meant two horses completely blew each others' prospects:

Both Beauzon and Sidcot Swallet might be worth another chance if looking like getting an easy lead.

Beware the well beaten outsider with a big upgrade figure

Sometimes you'll see a big upgrade against a no-hoper beaten half the track. Remember, the figure is calculating inefficiency, and you'll find a few horses who were ridden inefficiently but who likely would not have been competitive even under an ultra-efficient ride. Here's an example:

Juriste, a 66/1 shot, was beaten 26 lengths in this 1m6f contest. He might be capable of a lot better but the balance of probabilities is that he's flattered by his upgrade figure of 12. As with all form reading, we still have to make subjective judgements along the way, though most are fairly clear-cut.

Big Upgrades in Slowly Run Races

Upgrade figures are NOT speed figures. They are 'inefficiency calculations'. When I was first playing with our UP numbers I tried applying them to a pure speed rating (Topspeed, though that's academic). They didn't really tell me anything, which wasn't a surprise as the two scales (UP and TS) are totally unrelated. But what I did discover, again far from a shock, was that bigger upgrades often occurred when the race was slow early.

That doesn't mean the upgrade figure has less merit; far from it. It is very useful to know, objectively, which horses are capable of producing a notable gear change off a steady gallop if today's race looks like being steadily run.

Fast Finishers

A second 'use case' for sectional data, and kind of a subset of the first one in a way, is identifying horses whose finishing effort was a good deal quicker than the race finishing speed as a whole. We call these fast finishers and they can be easily spotted in a couple of ways, one prescriptive and the other user-definable. Let's start with the easy way...

Easy Fast Finishers

We recently introduced a Fast Finishers report, which flags all of today's (and tomorrow's) runners that produced a finishing speed percentage which bettered the race finishing speed percentage by 2.5% or more. It looks a lot like this:

In this extremely convenient example from yesterday, the top two - based on 'sectional upgrade' (the right hand column, Sec Upg) - were tidy winners, at 3/1 and 5/1 respectively. Coincidentally, they also recorded the two largest finishing speed percentage differentials (FS% Diff). This is not usually the case.

As a side note, FS% Diff is calculated thus: ((Horse FS% / Race FS%) x 100) - 100

Taking the top one: ((105.14 / 98.52) x 100) - 100 =

(1.06719 x 100) - 100 = 106.719 - 100 = 6.719, rounded to 6.72

That's a verbose way of saying it is not Horse FS% - Race FS%!

Bespoke Fast Finishers

But what if you want to find your own performances of merit? Maybe you don't like our arbitrary '2.5% greater than race FS%' cut off. Fair enough. Here's what to do.

Open up the first result for a meeting, then select the 'OMC' and 'Sectionals' options. I also tend to have the 'Comments' open, and usually 'Running Lines' as well:

Remember to turn sectionals ON on your My Geegeez page in the 'Racecard Options' section. Default display option is 'None'.

OK, with things set up (you only have to do it once), work through the results comparing the race FS% with the runners' FS%'s. Once you find an interesting one, scout the in-running comment (and perhaps the Running Lines as well) to corroborate the numbers. Here's an example from that same Wolverhampton card where a number of beaten horses were compromised by the run of the race:

We're looking specifically at the percentage figure in the closing sectional block. Here, the race closing sectional/finishing speed percentage (3-0) is 103.3%. See the highlighted block top right.

The UP column reveals both fast and slow finishers: Punchbowl Flyer was an example of a slow finisher (did too much too soon) further up this post; and here we can see that all of Parikarma, Risaalaat, Reclaim Victory and, to a lesser degree, Castle Quarter, had too much to do.

Parikarma, whose FS% here was 106.5%, ran over a flat mile at Leicester a couple of days later and finished in similar fashion. She may win soon, perhaps over a slightly longer trip. Those others are all worth noting in their next couple of starts, assuming their general form credentials also stack up. [That is worth re-stating, though it may be quite obvious to some: a horse must have shown it is capable of competing against today's race conditions - or at least not shown it is incapable of competing - in order for any sectional insight to be useful].

Sectional timing is a very useful means of understanding what happened in a race. As bettors, we need to be alive to horses capable of stepping forward in finishing position terms after races where they were to some degree compromised. Here at geegeez, we've tried to make the information as usable as possible via both our Fast Finishers report and our Upgrade figures, and I hope in the above you've been inspired to experiment with this data for yourself. If you're not currently a Gold subscriber, you can join us here.

Good luck,

Matt

Monday Musings: Classic Connections

28 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

The weekend in Ireland produced another extremely disappointing performance from an Aiden O’Brien Derby favourite, writes Tony Stafford. If anything, High Definition’s sluggish display in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby was in merit terms inferior even to Bolshoi Ballet’s comprehensive defeat at Epsom.

The discovery of a cut to a hind leg immediately after that race gave connections a straw to cling to with Bolshoi Ballet, while on Saturday a stumble through clipping heels after two furlongs apparently unbalanced High Definition with jockey Ryan Moore apparently never able to get him back on an even keel thereafter.

The common denominator in a period when Irish horses have otherwise been wiping the floor with their English-trained counterparts over jumps and on the Flat has been the two Derby wins for Godolphin on horses trained by Charlie Appleby. Adam Kirby was the unexpected hero in the Cazoo Derby at Epsom but William Buick, only third that day on first string Hurricane Lane, was again in the saddle as that horse put things right at The Curragh.

From the time when his father Walter used to bring him over from Norway, where he was born, while Scots-born Buick senior was the eight times champion jockey in Scandinavia, William always had the mark of a future top jockey.

He used to come along to Newbury racecourse, a tiny lad, and visit the press room where his proud dad brought him and, later on, his two younger brothers, Martin and Andrew. Even years later when he started riding aged 16 as a 7lb claiming apprentice from Andrew Balding’s stable he weighed just about 5st wet through.

Walter took on the job of trying to get him started and initially it proved difficult. Then one day he rode his first winner for Paul D’Arcy, a friend of Walter’s from their riding days before Walter moved to Scandinavia.

That made little difference to the flow of rides and one day Walter asked me whether I could talk to any trainers. William had been enrolled in the Newmarket Jockey School and apparently had made something of an enemy of one of the coaches who found him rather too ready to express his opinions, a tendency that years later cost him a doubling of a suspension when he accused French stewards of being corrupt, a comment he later wisely withdrew.

At the time I was very friendly with Vince Smith and we’d recently arranged for a couple of Raymond Tooth horses to go to him, with excellent results. Vince is no longer a trainer and after surgery for gender transformation, is now known as Victoria Smith.

Vince gave the boy his chance and in the last two months of 2006 he rode the three-year-old handicapper Vacation six times to two wins, two seconds and two thirds, the impetus of which helped get him going. By the end of the year he had clocked up ten wins. Vince continued training for only two more seasons and William rode seven winners from 40 mounts for him with another 13 finishing second or third.

But what I believe was a big step in the making of William was when, as a result of a recommendation by Michael Tabor, William spent the early part of 2007 in the US in the Florida winter base of top US trainer Todd Pletcher. That, rather than run through his claim in egg-and-spoon races on the all-weather, Buick senior agreed, was a better idea and more beneficial for his future.

On that trip, with his dad as chaperone, he was taken under his wing by the great Angel Cordero in his daily track work and returned to the UK a better rider and a much more rounded young man.

While voted the Apprentice of the Year in the Derby awards in both 2017 and 2018 by UK journalists, Buick was actually beaten as champion apprentice the first year by Greg Fairley who had been supported with all the ammunition available from the country’s now winning-most trainer Mark Johnston. Sadly within four years of having maintained a similar level, Fairley found the struggle to deal with maintaining an unnatural weight beyond him.

In 2008 Buick did gain his coveted Champion Apprentice title, although he had to share it with another Andrew Balding rider, geegeez-sponsored David Probert. Within a couple of years he was head-hunted by John Gosden and for four years, during which time he won a first Irish Derby on Jack Hobbs, the pair had spectacular success together.

But the final step on his graduation into the top sphere was being recruited in 2014 by Godolphin with all the winter benefit of winning such races as the Dubai World Cup and its extravagant rewards. That has projected Buick into the same elite jockey grouping as Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore.

Moore has been the Coolmore number one throughout the same period, succeeding Joseph O’Brien, while Dettori, previously the long-term Godolphin number one, switched back to Gosden on Buick’s departure and duly extended his astonishing longevity with the UK’s top stable, most notably with his association with Enable.

William won the 2018 Derby for Godolphin on Masar and, while he could finish only third behind Adam Kirby, who rode lesser-fancied stablemate Adayar, on Hurricane Lane in the Blue Riband earlier this month, he remained loyal to his mount and was rewarded three weeks later with what was a second victory in the Irish Derby.

It required a top-class ride on Saturday as, going into the final furlong, Dettori, riding the Martin Meade-trained Lone Eagle, had poached a clear lead. With none of the home team looking up to making a challenge the two UK colts had the finish to themselves.

Between the Godolphin pair at Epsom was the Richard Hannon-trained and Amo Racing-owned Mojo Star, still a maiden but he was now strongly fancied to correct that status in this Classic. Unfortunately for connections, when Buick first launched his run down the outside of the field he instigated a touch of general bunching to his inside.

Mojo Star was the worst affected in the scrimmage so, while having no time to recover fully, he did well to finish fifth, just ahead of Irish 2,000 hero, Mac Swiney. Wordsworth, in third, was the best of the Ballydoyle runners but a full five lengths adrift of the first two.

So, with a Classic win, there was a little respite for the town of Newmarket, still shocked by the sudden resignation earlier that day of Matt Hancock from his post as Health Secretary and therefore the most constant face of the Government’s during the Covid-19 crisis of the past 15 months. Hancock is the Member of Parliament for the West Suffolk constituency which includes Newmarket.

The former minister was the subject of a leaked picture, probably taken from a phone camera, showing him snogging a woman that turned out to be his future live-in partner, an action contrary to Covid-19 regulations and a few other considerations too, I would imagine. The break-up of his marriage had been announced just before the departure.

I touch on this simply because he was, or rather is, a fan of horse racing and while the financial situation for owners remains as dire as it has been for many years because of the inadequate prize money levels, the sport certainly needs friends in high places. I don’t suppose he’ll be too much use from the back benches.

I digress. Whereas Adayar was a home-bred, Hurricane Lane, a son of Frankel, was bred by Philippa and Nicholas Cooper’s Normandie Stud in Sussex. I first met the Coopers in the spring of 1998 after Hitman, a decent horse I bought as a yearling and had in training with Henry Cecil along with Peter Mines and a few of his pals under the name of the Paper Boys, was beaten a neck by their horse I’m Proposin at Leicester.

We were all shocked, but Henry, despite Hitman’s having starting the 4-9 favourite after some exceptional homework, was not surprised. “A better horse still needs to be fit to win and Hitman needed the race. When it came to the crucial stage, I’m Proposin <an 8-1 shot that day and winner of his next two races for John Dunlop> was fit, so he won.” A lesson learned from the words of the master! Mainly jumping owners at the time, the Coopers graduated to the Flat before becoming highly-successful commercial breeders.

They reluctantly decided to sell their West Sussex farm in 2017 but continue breeding basing their mares at Coolmore and Newsells Park, the latter of which has changed hands in the past few weeks. Gale Force, a daughter of Shirocco and, rarely for Philippa, not a home-bred, was sold in a partial dispersal of Normandie’s stock in December 2019 for 300,000gns. That was two months after her son, to be known as Hurricane Lane, went through the same Park Paddocks sale ring for 200,000gns.

Part of the reason for the Coopers’ sale was the tendency for all their retired racehorses to come back to the farm and then live to a great age. Now they are kept at Angmering Park, near Arundel, the home of the late Lady Anne Herries and former training base of William Knight, who moved to Newmarket early last year.

The Classic Year 2021 has thrown a few unexpected barbs at Coolmore with Santa Barbara’s defeats in the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks even though they still won both races. Mother Earth’s victory in the Newmarket race and more emphatically Snowfall’s record-breaking romp at Epsom obviously lessened the blow each time.

Yesterday Santa Barbara, with Aidan O’Brien splitting the difference in the ten-furlong Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, feature race on the final day of the Derby meeting, went a long way towards restoring her reputation. Initially looking at best booked for third or fourth, she produced a flying finish between horses in the last half furlong under a left-hand drive by Moore and only narrowly failed to catch the more experienced four-year-old, Thundering Nights.

That filly, sent to Belmont Park for her previous run and an excellent second there in a mares’ Grade 2 for Joseph O’Brien, looked likely to win comfortably but Santa Barbara reduced the margin to a neck.

With four three-year-old fillies at Ballydoyle already Classic winners this year, the in-fighting for a place in the Nassau Stakes line-up will be intense but at least Santa Barbara must now be a contender. As Peeping Fawn showed back in 2007, there’s plenty of time to rebuild a reputation. She won four Group 1 races only starting at Goodwood that year.

- TS

Northumberland Vase Preview: Everybody Loves Raymond

25 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

It’s the big handicaps at Newcastle that appeal on Saturday and as is often the case, it’s the consolation race rather than Northumberland Plate that is of most interest. These consolation races usually contain far more unexposed, progressive types and for me at least, they are much better betting races.

The Northumberland Vase is due off at 2.55pm and just like the Plate, will be run over an extended two miles. It’s worth noting that whilst the course has been riding fairly slow, forecast rain on Friday should quicken the surface up a bit.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

A big field and a round course, any hint of a draw bias here?

Newcastle have only been racing on their all weather surface for five years which leaves us with just a limited data set for big field two mile races. What data we do have suggests that there isn’t much difference between middle and high draws but low draws seem to be disadvantaged.

This goes against convention around a bend so let’s see exactly what the data implies. With a relatively limited data sample it doesn’t seem worth investing too much into the win percentage data, but a quick examination shows just a 3.51% win ratio for low draws, with 5.36% of middle drawn runners winning and a relatively massive 10.53% of high drawn horses emerge victorious.

The place percentage data should be much reliable than the win percentage data and this again points to higher draws being favoured with place percentages of 14.04%, 23.21% and 27.19% for low, middle and high draws respectively.

PRB is a much better metric to use in small samples, again the data points to higher draws. Low draws produce a PRB of just 0.44 compared to 0.52 and 0.53 for middle and high respectively.

With some big differences between low and middle let’s see where the sweet spots in the draw are likely to be.

The first thing that stands out here is the top four individual stalls as far as PRB are concerned are 17, 18, 20 and 16 (in that order). It is worth noting though that these stalls have very few runners so the data could be slightly misleading. Having said that the fact that all four of those stalls do so well seems too conclusive to be a coincidence.

At the other end of the scale, the worst two draws belong to stalls 1 and 2. They have individual stall PRBs of 0.39 and 0.33 respectively which is pretty awful. Stall 5 also performs poorly but stalls 4, 6 and 8 have done well in the past so whilst a very low draw might be highly disadvantageous, the low to middle draws shouldn’t be completely discounted even if it's an advantage to have a higher draw.

Looking at the individual stall data group, which is presenting PRB3 data, it does seem that the higher the draw the better with the line steadily climbing as you move into double figure stalls.

Win percentages can be misleading in smaller samples but it is worth noting that the top seven win percentages all belong to stalls 9 or higher.

Now I’ve watched several of these races back to try and determine a reason for this bias. My theory is that the horses that have been going round off the rail tend to deliver their challenges down the middle of the straight whereas those drawn on the rail tend to challenge closer to the far side rail (not necessarily on the rail). In straight course races they tend to come up the middle to near side and there is every chance a higher draw over this distance spits the higher draw runners out onto the fastest part of the straight.

Pace

Let’s now examine potential pace biases in this race.

Again not a massive sample, so the place percentage data will be much more interesting than the win percentage data. Looking at the win data though it’s an extremely close contest with just 1.52% separating the best and worst records, which belong to front runners and prominent racers respectively.

The place percentage data is also very well matched with most success gained from the front (26.92%) followed by 24.69% for prominent, 21.25% for mid division and 19.33% for hold up performers. That data does suggest you are slightly better off being closer to the pace than further but there really isn’t a huge amount in it and it looks a pretty fair course and distance.

Northumberland Vase Pace Map

Given that this venue looks pretty fair pace wise, I’d be far more concerned with the individual set up of the race then anything else, which is where the pace map comes in.

This race should be run at a good gallop with two last time out early leaders (Rochester House and A Star From Above) and the likes of Margaret Dumont, Bellatrixsa, Mr Chua, Raymond, Al Kout and Red Force One all also having led on at least one recent start.

By contrast, the likes of Zeeband, Indigo Times, Dreamweaver, Cleonte and Monsieur Lambrays are all consistently dropped out in the rear of the field and that quintet all look likely to be suited by the likely good gallop here. Being extremely patiently ridden didn’t look absolutely ideal according to the place percentage data on the Pace Analyser but granted a strong gallop here it might end up being the place to be, or at least mid division could be.

Draw and Pace Combination

Before we get into the runners and riders here I also want to look at one of my favourite parts of Geegeez Gold, the Draw and Pace Combination Heat Map which is particularly useful for big field races that have either a draw or pace bias (preferably both!).

Given the fairly small sample size we are dealing with here these figures can be taken with a slight pinch of salt but by looking at PRB data from previous big fields we do end up with a fair amount of runners producing data.

The heat map shows that a low draw is easier to overcome with a prominent position but leading from a low draw tends to result in a poor run.

If drawn in the middle, prominent or mid division tends to be best whilst higher draws are also seen to good effect when held up with a high draw seemingly the best starting position for front runners.

Given a likely good gallop here, the middle to high drawn hold up performers seem likely to receive some form of advantage.

The Runners

A rundown of the leading contenders for this, in early odds order.

East Asia

On a roll with three wins in a row on turf since joining Ian Williams and has appreciated the step up to two miles on his last two starts, winning both races fairly comfortably. What is interesting here is the fact that he gets to run off his all weather mark which is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark on turf and 7lbs lower than his new turf mark.

The question has to be is he as good on artificial surfaces? That’s a difficult one to answer considering all his previous runs away from turf came on dirt. His best performances on dirt seemed to coincide with the longer trips he tackled, finishing 2^nd and 3^rd over 13f and 2^nd over 2m. Those efforts were off lower marks in the UAE, on a different surface, so there is plenty of guesswork involved.

After this race his all weather mark is either going to look extremely generous or we’ll know he’s much better on turf. Connections are likely to have a good idea if he’s going to be just as good on tapeta as turf so expect a further plunge in the market ahead of a possible success but the early odds are short enough in such an open race for one that has some question marks.

Indigo Times

No question marks about Indigo Times’ love affair with an all weather surface, he has won six times on artificial surfaces but he has never raced here and was beaten off 26lb lower marks on his only two tapeta starts (at Wolverhampton). He did where a hood for those starts and it’s possible it held him back or it may have been the surface. Either way his all weather form since coming away from tapeta and having the hood removed reads 1121111. He has been a bit of a Chelmsford specialist but did win comfortably at Kempton last time out.

The fact he ran well enough on turf in a hood between two slightly below par performances on tapeta in the same headgear is a concern, and he’s probably drawn slightly lower than ideal in stall 5. His hold up run style should be suited to this race though.

Zeeband

Lightly raced and representing Roger Varian so commands plenty of respect. He was progressive at 14f last season on turf and his beating of Ispahan at Thirsk (now 8lbs higher) reads fairly well as Zeeband is also 8lbs higher now and he still ran green that day. There was no disgrace in finding the progressive Prince Alex too good on his final start last year.

He reappeared with a solid 3^rd and that form has worked out okay. He hasn’t particularly been crying out for further than the 14f he has raced over so far though and he’s also only run exclusively on turf to date. Add to that he’s drawn in stall 2 and connections have reached for a first time visor and the question marks begin to appear and he’s opposable at the price for all he may win, comments which apply to the two in front of him in the market too.

A Star Above

Moved through the ranks nicely last year for William Haggas, running a particularly respectable 4^th in the Melrose Handicap at York, staying on well. He was successful when trying that trip this season, for the first time since the Melrose, in what has turned out to be a pretty solid handicap (plenty of placed form coming out of it).

He was dropped back to 12f on his next start though, possibly a sign connections don’t see him as a stayer, and his prominent racing style could leave him vulnerable here with a strong gallop likely.

Raymond

An seemingly exposed, dual purpose 6yo but on closer inspection he’s had just the six flat starts, producing form figures of 214121. His worst flat performance came at Southwell, so easy enough to write that one off, and he has won here at Newcastle, albeit over 10f in novice company. He has won over an extended 13f at Chelmsford and over 2m at York so has fewer question marks than many of those above him in the betting.

He’s pretty flexible as far as tactics are concerned and was held up in mid division on his most recent start which would seem the best thing to do here.

The form of his latest win has worked out well with the 3^rd and 4^th both winning since so a 4lb rise looks lenient – the handicapper agrees as he’s since put him up another pound but that new mark hasn’t kicked in here.

Stall 13 looks good and could encourage his pilot to drop him in which will probably be advantageous and he looks to have a solid chance at a fair price.

Byron Hill

Lightly raced and shed his maiden tag last time out over 14f at Yarmouth. He won comfortably last time out and is 2lbs well in here under his penalty but that form has taken a few knocks since, not necessarily a massive worry as those behind him weren’t particularly competitive.

He ran over course and distance last season, finishing 4^th, in a race won by Bellatrixsa who reopposes here. He’s well enough drawn in 12 and his run style should suit the pace of this race. He looks the sort to run with credit but there have to be some doubts about how well handicapped he is, for all he is relatively progressive.

Margaret Dumont

Hugo Palmer’s 4yo has looked a thorough stayer since her very first starts (when racing for Mark Johnston). Since joining Palmer she’s raced almost exclusively on the all weather with her only turf run seeing her well beaten over this trip. Fast ground was blamed.

Her all weather form does look the most relevant with a view to this race and she’s been pretty consistent with form figures of 3212. The win came at Chelmsford, no real surprise given she looks a real grinder and she bounced back from her poor run on turf with a solid 2^nd to a big improver last time out.

She looks pretty one paced and could get caught out against some speedier types here, even in a race that could bring out her stamina. She won’t get an easy lead either and she’s drawn low in stall 3. Probably one to note when tackling this trip at Chelmsford.

Blow Your Horn

A Golden Horn gelding that has improved as he’s gone up in trip since the winter. The majority of his starts have come on the all weather (has won here) but he seems equally good on turf, softer ground blamed for his latest lacklustre effort. Before that he won on his first try at 14f (at Chelmsford), his second win on the bounce.

He’s now gone up 10lbs for his two wins so needs to not only prove himself at this trip, but also off this mark. Being held up from stall 11 could bring about the best in him though.

Bellatrixsa

All five runs since winning over course and distance have been over hurdles and a hurdle mark of 122 means she could be well handicapped here off 77. Venetia Williams has already plundered the Chester Vase this season and given Bellatrixsa had several future winners in behind her on her last flat run, and has improved since over hurdles, she seems slightly overlooked by the bookies. There is plenty to like about her form and she holds Byron Hill on her last win but she’s likely to be close to the pace from stall 4 which could be her undoing.

Cosmelli

Won this in 2018 off a 4lb higher mark and went close here off a 2lb higher mark in December. He’s run a total of thirteen times over course and distance alone, meaning he has more experience here than many of these have had in their entire careers. His record is two wins and five places from those thirteen runs and he could run well here although he’s not always the most consistent and is definitely vulnerable to an improver.

Brasca

Finished last when only 10/1 for the Chester Vase and has only beaten one rival home in two starts at two miles plus. He does have a solid profile on the all weather (form figures of 1221) and does still look well handicapped at 14f on artificial surfaces but based on his turf form he looks an unlikely winner at this trip.

Vibrance

All four of his wins have come over Kempton’s two miles and ten of his eleven placed efforts have come at that venue too. His one placed run away from Kempton was here at Newcastle over an inadequate trip but that was off a 21lb lower mark.

His form seems to have plateaued at his favourite venue now too so he’s opposable here against more progressive types.

Cleonte

This 8yo has been a credit to connections and although he’s unlikely to ever run to his peak rating of 108 again, he won’t need to in order to get his head in front as he’s rated just 89 here. He was a comfortable winner off a 2lb lower mark at Kempton in March and ran well enough twice on turf after that before finding very soft ground against him at Ascot last time out. That run is forgivable but it came just a week ago and that effort may have left its mark on him.

He only made his all weather debut in November as a 7yo and he steadily ran himself into form over the winter. He ran a good 2^nd here in February over course and distance behind a progressive Sir Mark Prescott horse running up a sequence, that runner won on his next two starts. He’s well suited by a good stamina test so a strong pace here would suit and he’s likely to be dropped out from stall 14 which is no problem. He’s one that should be able to outrun his odds if that latest effort hasn’t left its mark but he’ll probably find a few too good regardless.

Red Force One

Beat Raymond in a muddling small field handicap two starts ago, winning on the bridle, but didn’t back that up last time out on softer ground at Epsom. Going back up in trip should suit but probably not this far, he was well beaten at Ascot over two miles when trying this distance last season. He might not be well enough handicapped anyway and could be one of those involved in an early speed duel.

Autumn War

Something to prove after being beaten 22 lengths at Epsom last time out but his better turf form had come on better ground and he seems better over further than a mile and a half these days. Autumn War hadn’t run for a year before making his stable debut in October last year on soft ground, a run that did nothing but blow the cobwebs away. Next time out, up in trip with a visor fitted, he ran out a comfortable winner at Wolverhampton and he followed that up with another win, beating much of the same field again.

That last win worked out very well with the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th all winning shortly after, meaning Autumn War has to be considered at least fairly handicapped here off just a 4lb higher mark. He hasn’t progressed since then but all his subsequent starts have come over shorter than his last win and he was found to be lame and to have bled on his last two starts on the all weather respectively. Hasn’t looked to be crying out for this trip but did seem to find 12f too short on his penultimate start so there is some hope of staying this far.

Dreamweaver

Yet to win in seven starts off marks in the 80s and certainly needs to improve for the step up in trip here, which is a substantial one. He doesn’t look well handicapped or a certain stayer so not difficult to put a line through him.

Rochester House

Ran well over this trip on seasonal debut but hasn’t performed to the same level in two starts over further since (does stay further than two miles). He’s rated 4lbs lower on the all weather and although he’s never shone at Kempton (beaten exactly 46 lengths on both starts) he was a winner off a 1lb lower mark over this trip at Lingfield and was beaten only a length off this mark on his only start over course and distance so does have some fair all weather form. He’s likely to get taken on for the lead and is drawn in stall 1 which is enough to look elsewhere.

Monsieur Lambrays

Has improved with racing and finished last season on a career high mark of 92 having picked up two wins in 2020, including one over this trip at York. He’s barely beaten a rival in three runs since that win but got a lot closer on his only run this year, finishing last of four but beaten less than 4 lengths. That form has worked out okay and he’s entitled to improve on that run so he’s probably overpriced, especially as he’s unbeaten in two tapeta runs (both at Wolverhampton at a much lower level admittedly).

Al Kout

Habitual front runner who has been in fairly decent form this season but was well beaten last time out on soft ground (did have previous form on that going). He doesn’t find winning easy with only two career successes and the fact he’s finished second nine times suggests he’s a bit of a thinker. He has been in the frame in eleven out of seventeen all weather starts though and his course and distance runs have produced form figures of 232 off similar sorts of marks. He’s best when dominating small fields though and could get swamped here.

Mr Chua

Progressive last season until flopping in the Cesarewitch and ran no sort of race last time out on his first start since wind surgery. Potential to improve for that and resume progression but he’s going to get taken on for the lead and hasn’t proved he’s as good on the all weather as he is on turf, even if he is back to form.

The Verdict

Fair to say this is wide open, I couldn’t confidently rule out more than a few of these.

I am fairly keen to back Autumn War back on the all weather and I’m happy to forgive his latest run on softer turf but I’m fairly certain 14f is his trip and I’m willing to leave him alone, even at a big price here.

Blow Your Horn seems to have better claims of staying this far, the offspring of Golden Horn have a massive PRB of 0.74 at this trip, admittedly from a sample of just eleven runners. He’ll need to improve for the extra trip but Jamie Spencer could be seen to best effect here holding him up off a strong gallop.

A more reliable option in a difficult race could be RAYMOND though. He’s one of the only market principles with proven stamina and proven all weather form and he won a good handicap last time out, good enough that the handicapper has regretted only raising him 4lbs for the win. He doesn’t have much big field form on the flat but he did win two 14 runner contests over obstacles. There don’t seem any real negatives other than the slight lack of ‘sexy’ profile some of these have and he’s worth an each way wager at around 12/1.

Bellatrixsa is also interesting but the draw and competition for the early lead is off putting.

Royal Ascot 2021 Clock Watcher: Sectional Horses of Interest

23 June 2021/in Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

The searing heat of battle that is Royal Ascot is now a fading memory but its impact on the form book will permeate throughout the remainder of this season and beyond. Picking performances of extreme merit is not difficult - Poetic Flare's demolition in the St James's Palace Stakes, Subjectivist's similar one horse show in the Gold Cup to name two - but profiting from such knockout efforts is more challenging, unless you have deep pockets, a fearless outlook and no eye for value.

In this post, then, I'd like to look a bit further down the running orders in search of a few horses who may have achieved more than their notation in the records suggests; and I'll undertake this act of faint clairvoyance (after all, every soothsayer performs their oracle on the basis of what they see before them that the recipient cannot necessarily yet see for themselves) through the prism of sectional timing information.

There is, I hope, slightly less smoke and mirrors than your average gypsy caravan crystal ball encounter in what follows but, as with tarot readings, time will tell on that!

One final note before I begin: this article was inspired by one covering the same subject produced by the perma-excellent Simon Rowlands, which can be read here. We are both looking at the TPD sectional data so there will be commonalities; but there is also sufficient differentiation - as well as an opportunity for me to highlight how readily such performances advertise themselves on these pages - to justify treading a similar path.

A Quick Whizz Through The Mechanics

First of all, finding results for a specific meeting on a given date is as easy as selecting the date, either from the 'Recent Results' or 'Results Search' buttons, and then choosing the meeting in question from the dropdown.

Clicking the red 'Full Result' button for a race takes you to that result. Gold subscribers will see on the right hand side of the result a column called 'UP':

This is the sectional upgrade figure our algorithm has allocated to the horse in question. For example, in the above image Palace Pier got an upgrade of 3. You can also see these upgrades highlighted in certain circumstances on our Fast Finishers report (rightmost column):

I'll not go into detail on how the upgrade figure is calculated but it is of course important to understand what the number is attempting to measure. It is in essence a barometer of how much more a horse may have to give in a more agreeable race setup; put another way, it seeks to quantify the degree to which the way a horse ran compromised its chance. A third way of couching is how sub-optimal, or inefficient, was the performance in terms of energy distribution.

Management summary: the bigger the upgrade figure, the more - notionally - the horse may have had to offer.

To the races... (at last, Ed.)

Tuesday

On the opening day, the Group 1 King's Stand Stakes was quick through the middle section and commensurately slow at the end (finishing speed in the turquoise box of 97% - the colour coding is a little unreliable at Ascot where there is, at this stage, a small sample of data with which to work).

Oxted was a fine, and thoroughly efficient, winner of the race, he and second-placed Arecibo benefiting from well-timed rides. Of the first four home it is clear from the UP column that Battaash should be marked up most. He served it up in that rapid middle section and faded late on. Given that he was coming back from surgery for his seasonal bow, this was a performance of promise and presumably he'll now head to Goodwood for the King George Stakes and then on to York for the Nunthorpe as he has done with metronomic regularity in each of the past four seasons.

But down in the cheap seats are a couple of double digit upgrades. Care does need to be taken sometimes with big UP figures far from the podium positions, especially when achieved by big-priced outsiders. In this case, we have a brace of 11's for 7/1 Winter Power and 40/1 Maven.

And, in this case, my contention is that both should be treated as of just about equal merit. They were drawn next to each other, they were both within a length (or so) of the lead to the furlong pole, and they both faded late. As a Wes wunner, it may be that we don't see Maven again until this time next year, but Winter Power is likely to attend all the midsummer five furlong dances if her nine races in little more than four months last season is any gauge.

In the 1m6f Copper Horse Stakes, the Charlie Fellowes-trained Dubious Affair closed well but just too late. Depending on your view of jockey Jamie Spencer, it was either a great but unlucky ride or a shocking cockup. Very few seemingly take a neutral view of that particular pilot. Personally, I'm in the great rider camp, and he was unlucky here, as were connections of course.

Fellowes' Royal Ascot handicap record is worthy of a mention. After a couple of years getting the hang of things, he's recorded three winners, two seconds and a fourth from ten runners since 2017. The winners were 33/1 twice and 20/1, and Dubious Affair would have been a third 33/1 score.

Wednesday

The feature of the Queen's Vase, a 1m6f Group 2 for three-year-olds, was the steady tempo at which is was run, borne out by upgrades in the teens for most of the first eight home. Kemari benefited from his prominent position, getting first run on waited with rivals. Stowell and Benaud, both 6 1/4 lengths off the lead at the half mile pole closed well but could never overcome the head start they'd afforded those up top. Of the pair, Stowell may be of slightly more interest in future, though both retain plenty of upside in staying company.

I've highlighted the in-running comment for Wordsworth, because he too was probably inconvenienced by the run of the race. Not in a sectional sense but, rather, by dint of the fact that he would likely have benefited from a more truly run event. He's a definite St Leger player in my view.

Indie Angel was a big price but an unambiguous winner of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. Coming from near last to win going away, she could be a live one for a Group 1 like the Sun Chariot in early October.

In the Windsor Castle, Ruthin ran a stormer despite finishing no better than 7th. Drawn 12 of 27, the least favoured part of the track, Frankie jumped in front and tacked left across to the near (stands') rail. Before considering the fuel guzzled in trapping and making the running in a big field five furlong juvenile contest, there is the ground covered in manoeuvring 15 stall widths across the track, quite probably more than the eventual 3 1/2 length margin of defeat.

It may of course all be moot anyway unless you wager US racing because we're unlikely to see Ruthin this side of the pond any time soon. That said, she's one to follow and could end up at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, hosted at Del Mar in early November.

Just behind Ruthin was Guilded, now a three race maiden and a 66/1 shot this time. She too was on the speed and, though berthed better than the US runner, still deserves plenty of credit for this effort. She looks a near certainty (don't quote me!) in an ordinary novice event perhaps on a slightly easier track.

Thursday

Mohaafeth was an exciting winner of the Hampton Court Stakes and looks destined for greater things. In behind, perhaps Movin Time is another to take from the race. Getting no cover and racing wide early was not the plan, and then being interfered with would have lit him up a little; in that context, the fact he hit the front two from home before fading is creditable. A lesser Pattern score is within his grasp.

In the Ribblesdale, Eshaada was an unlucky second. While the winner received an enterprising ride, Rab Havlin controlling the pace through the second half of the race, those in behind were all compromised to some degree - as is generally the case when one gets an easy lead. Havlin kicked at the optimal time for his filly and the others were varying degrees of unable to pull back the leash. Eshaada got nearest in spite of being remarkably weak in the markets all day. Divinely is another who closed from too far back.

The Britannia Stakes featured a number of significant upgrades and, by now, I hope you'll be able to spot them, and add to your tracker if you'd like, by yourself:

Friday

Between Thursday and Friday, it got wet. Very wet. The going pendulum swung a full arc and was heavy for the penultimate day. That will have ruined the chances of many more than those officially declared non-runners.

The opening Albany Stakes was a personal triumph for geegeez-sponsored jockey David Probert, who rode the winner, Sandrine. But it was the filly who followed her home, Hello You, that goes (actually, stays) on my list. A massive sectional eye-catcher (and, in truth, an eye eye-catcher!) on debut when scooting away from her (uncharacteristically well-touted for the track) field at Wolverhampton, she built on that here, travelling nicely to lead at the furlong pole before, I presume, finding her closing kick blunted by the ground. She could be a very smart filly over six and seven furlongs this season.

The six furlong Commonwealth Cup, a Group 1, was controversial as a result of the revised placings of the first two home. Further back were two performances also of merit for the future. While Suesa was on everyone's radar beforehand - the French filly was sent off 9/4 favourite - and ran better than her finishing position suggests, it is the Irish-trained filly Mooneista I'm most interested in.

Trained by the unfashionable Jack Davison, she's been running consistently well, largely in defeat, for two seasons. Here, she closed to within two lengths of the lead at the furlong pole before folding to an eight-length beating at the line. But most of her best form is over five furlongs. When returned to that trip I expect she'll be very competitive.

There were three more sectional possibles for the Tracker in the Sandringham, which I'll again allow you to pick out if you'd like:

Saturday

The Wokingham was a classic two for one race, the far side having much the best of it. But it is the eighth horse home, Punchbowl Flyer, who goes on my list. First of nine home on the stands' side, history tells us he had no chance of taking this race, instead convincingly scoring in his division. Left on 99 by the handicapper, that arguably makes him a winner without a penalty and, given he'd won his previous two he looks likely to be competitive wherever he shows up next. For similar reasons, Lampang may also step forward next time.

Summary

There were some incredible performances last week in Berkshire, and some less obvious ones which might pay their way going forwards. I hope the above has offered a few for the notebooks and, more than that, I hope it's tempted you to play around with this intel on the results. The sectional data appears on results a day or two after the races and it takes, literally, a few seconds to scan a race for big UP figures. Thereafter, a quick squint at the context in which that figure was attributed will leave you with a decision about whether to note the horse for a future assignment.

It's simple enough because we've done most of the legwork: do take a look!

Good luck,

Matt

Monday Musings: Of Long Days and the Classic Generation

21 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

June 21^st is upon us. The longest day was to be the freest day until the timid medical advisors to the UK government put the wind up them with fears that the D variant – the virus formerly known as Indian – would cause another surge in infections, writes Tony Stafford.

Well it has, averaging around 10,000 a day for the last week or so, but they are testing many, many more nowadays. Anyone prepared to go anywhere near a racecourse will have enjoyed the experience of things up their nose or aimed at their tonsils.

Since mine were removed in 1952, the year of the Queen’s ascent to the throne – rewarded with a nice ice cream <me, not the Queen> as I recall – I would only be eligible for the nose job, but apparently it’s very much an officialdom-rich environment.

While the infections have risen, the numbers dying most emphatically have not, an average of ten a day for the last week when the “roadmap” was hastily and negatively redrawn. With massive numbers of older people fully vaccinated you wouldn’t expect many deaths, but the silly old advisors want it both ways.

As I’ve said numerous times, I won’t go until everyone is free to go everywhere. I contented myself with a Saturday night day-early Father’s Day celebration with my three 40-plus children and a selection of their issue. Lovely it was too.

So on to the summer and of course from tonight the days will shorten inexorably by three minutes for each of the next 182 and then the semi-cycle will start again the other way round. We’ve already had Royal Ascot and ten of the 12 spring/summer European Classic races – only Ireland’s Derby and Oaks remain in that part of the calendar, and then the St Legers in their various forms and degrees of credibility.

The Irish have won eight of the ten, Jim Bolger picking up the 2,000 Guineas with Poetic Flare and his domestic version with Mac Swiney. Poetic Flare’s demolition job in the St James’s Palace Stakes certainly puts him well ahead among the mile colts this year.

The two Classics decided so far and not to have been won by the Irish have been the Poule D’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000) won by Coeursamba, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, and the Derby (Adayar, Charlie Appleby).

The remaining six have all been hoovered up by Aidan O’Brien and the Ballydoyle team and each of them boasts combinations of the increasingly complex Coolmore pedigrees.

Five individual horses have been involved in those all-important Classic victories, and four of them are fillies. I contend that St Mark’s Basilica, despite his workmanlike victory in the French 2,000 (Poulains) and a more comfortable Prix Du Jockey Club success, both under Ioritz Mendizabal, is vastly under-valued in official terms. He beat a big field in Chantilly and his female stable-companion Joan Of Arc (by Galileo, <really?!, Ed?>) was similarly too good for another large field of home fillies in yesterday’s French Oaks, the Prix de Diane. This time Coeursamba finished only 11^th.

On Sunday Aidan relied on a single runner in a field of 17 and the 16 home defenders were no match for another Mendizabal mount who won by just over a length from the fast-finishing Fabre-trained and Godolphin-owned Philomene, a daughter of Dubawi.

That made it single-runner O’Brien challenges in three of the four French Classic races to be run so far – unplaced Van Gogh joined St Mark’s Basilica in the Jockey Club. Therefore three wins and a close second (Mother Earth, ridden by Christophe Soumillon) in the French 1,000. That new-found minimalist approach also extended to Epsom and the Derby where Bolshoi Ballet, the favourite, was left as their only runner having been initially one of six expected to turn out.

Three of the four fillies in question improved markedly on juvenile form, the exception being 1,000 Guineas winner and then Pouliches runner-up Mother Earth, who had already earned her 111 rating for her second place in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf race at Keeneland last November and remains on that figure despite her Classic exploits. She ran another game race in third in much the most testing ground she has faced in Friday’s Coronation Stakes at Ascot behind Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free.

Joan Of Arc took a rating of 105 into the Irish 1,000 and was Ryan Moore’s choice for the race but Seamie Heffernan got up on the line that day aboard Empress Josephine (101) in a private duel between two Galileo fillies. She clearly improved on that yesterday while Emperor Josephine was assessed at 109 after her win.

But the biggest eye-opener was Snowfall, the 16-length Oaks winner at Epsom who went into her prep in the Musidora at York on an official mark of 90. That was upped to 108 after her Knavesmire romp but even so she was still believed by insiders to be second-best among a more normal Oaks quintet behind lightly-raced Santa Barbara, now beaten favourite in both this year’s fillies’ classics in the UK.

It seems to me a master-stroke of fudging by the BHA to restrict Snowfall’s latest mark to 120, not merely because that is 2lb lower than Enable after her Oaks defeat of Rhododendron – what that champion did after Epsom has nothing to do with the assessment - and also 1lb less than Adayar.

The give-away for me is to suggest that Mystery Angel, rated 100 after her fourth (four lengths back) in the Musidora had only equalled her York mark. That ignored she made the running at Epsom in a much bigger field and still had the resources left to stay on and retain second 16 lengths behind the Frankie Dettori-ridden winner, finishing well ahead of a trio of considerably more highly-rated fillies.

If the medical advisors who keep us wearing masks and touching fists rather than shaking hands are timid, they have nothing on the BHA men who fear giving too high a rating to a Classic winner, even one who has set a record winning distance for any UK Classic in living memory and beyond.

Snowfall has made the first big statement that she might be a challenger to Love, her predecessor as an outstanding Oaks winner and star of the stable’s slightly disappointing Royal Ascot, as the season progresses. Love, dropping back two furlongs after a ten-month absence since the 2020 Yorkshire Oaks, made all to win the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

A third female deserving of mention in that elite grouping must be the David Menuisier-trained four-year-old filly, Wonderful Tonight. She got first run on Broome to win Saturday’s Hardwicke Stakes in style despite its being her first appearance of the year. Her French-born Sussex-based trainer has the Arc, where she has a good chance of getting the soft ground she favours, as her main target.

Broome may not have won but earlier that afternoon his close relative by Australia, the two-year-old Point Lonsdale, won the Chesham Stakes, a race often reserved for the best of the earlier O’Brien juveniles. Ryan had a battle keeping him straight, first going right and as they got close home, more markedly left, but they had enough in hand to beat the Queen’s promising colt Reach For The Moon – Sea The Stars/ Gosdens / Dettori – by half a length.

We had wondered why she chose Saturday to make an appearance. That highly-encouraging performance and the good run later of her King’s Lynn in the Wokingham made it a bit more like Royal Ascot, even when viewed from Hackney Wick. Hopefully, Your Majesty, you and me (and many others besides) can be there for the whole five days in 2022.

The astonishing thing about all four female Coolmore Classic winners is that at no time did anyone at Ballydoyle, and certainly not the trainer nor the owners, believe any of them was within hailing distance of Santa Barbara. My guess from Epsom was that the favourite probably did not stay the mile and a half under the conditions and in the quirky way the race was run, up the stands side with all the direction changing that inevitably happens.

I’m looking forward to seeing her, in what still will be only her fourth race and with a highly-creditable close fourth to Mother Earth at Newmarket on her record, in a suitable race over ten furlongs. The Nassau would be nice, but maybe she won’t be the only one from her stable appearing in that Goodwood Group 1.

Wokingham Handicap 2021 Preview: Value Seekers Could Be Feeling Fresh

18 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

It’s been a great Royal Ascot so far and Saturday’s toughest race has to be the Wokingham Handicap, which will be run at 5pm.

There will be a maximum field of 28 going to post and it looks set to be run on very testing ground after Friday's heavy rain.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

The benefit of betting on the final day of this meeting is that draw advantages have usually been established throughout the week so there is generally less guesswork involved.

It looks as though both sides of the course are much faster than the centre of the course so they’ll almost certainly split into two groups here on either side of the track.

It's still worth taking a look at any historical draw advantages in big fields over this 6f distance though.

Looking at low v middle v high, both middle and high hold the edge over low with a PRB of 0.51 for middle and high and 0.48 for low. There’s not much in it and both the win and place percentage data is also very closely matched so there is no strong long term course bias as far as the draw is concerned.

From previous experience we know the supposed bias can switch from one side to another overnight here and it’s worth repeating that middle looks the place NOT to be this week, so those drawn in the middle will most likely track over to their nearest rail.

The individual draw data chart can help show us possible micro biases in the draw. The above seems to indicate that being right on the stands’ side rail can be of benefit. The top three PRB3 figures in the data set belong to stalls 27, 26 and 28 respectively.

Pace

Ascot is generally considered a pretty fair course as far as pace is concerned but is that true over this trip in big fields?

The best win percentages and place percentages here belong to front runners with 10.42% of early leaders going on to win and 25.00% of them finishing in the places.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an advantage to as close to the pace as possible though as the next best success rate belongs to the most patiently ridden runners. Hold up performers have a win percentage of 6.60% and a place percentage of 21.70% which seems to highlight a bias towards extremes of rides. Exactly half of the winners in the data sample were held up early so whether or not those near the rear early have an advantage, they look most likely to supply the winner but they’ll be represented more than any other run style too.

Wokingham Handicap Pace Map

The pace maps for these big field handicaps are always hugely important. Not only do we need to know how much pace there is likely to be but we also want to find out how that pace is distributed across the track.

You could spend hours alone creating a pace map for this race but fortunately Geegeez Gold has done the hard work for us.

I’ve added a red line to show where the field MIGHT split, assuming they do so, although there is no guarantee it will be exactly there. The majority of the definite pace appears to be middle to high. There isn’t much pace above stall 20 but there is pace closer to the far rail. It will be interesting to see which way Desert Safari goes as he would add extra pace to the far side.

There is definite potential for the stands’ side to be taken along at a stronger gallop once they’ve completely split into two but there is definite pace both sides so it should be a relatively fair contest.

Draw and Pace Combination

It's always worth also examining the draw and pace combination heat map for races where there are possible draw or pace biases and once again Geegeez Gold gives us the data in an easy to consume format.

For whatever reason it appears low drawn front runners perform extremely well with a PRB of 0.66. Leading from a high draw, racing in mid division from a central draw or being held up from a central or high draw seem the other ideal draw and pace combinations.

By far the worst record belongs to front runners drawn in the middle. They potentially have to use up too much energy if the field splits getting to the rail AND getting to the lead. If the fields don’t split then dominating a massive field is never going to be easy either. There are several middle drawn pace angles including the relatively well fancied Punchbowl Flyer.

The main takeaway from this data seems to be that those drawn in the middle are best off with patient rides.

The Runners

Here are the leading contenders for this race, in early odds order.

King’s Lynn

Not many run in the King’s Stand as a preparation for this but that’s the route King’s Lynn has gone. You could probably argue the he was both unlucky and flattered in that race. He met trouble in running and could undoubtedly have finished closer but he was also extremely well drawn in hindsight, running on the fastest part of the track and he was held up off an overly strong gallop. In reality he probably ran close to his rating of 107 but that’s not the rating he runs off here, he carries a 5lb penalty for winning a listed contest and runs off 100 so he’s 7lbs well in.

The good news for King’s Lynn backers is that seemingly pretty versatile with regards to the going. He's also well handicapped on his 6f form last season behind Starman. The bad news is that he’s been beaten in three handicaps previously, all off lower marks, and he seems to have improved this season for the drop back to 5f – this will be a very different test.

He’s impossible to rule out confidently but there are enough negatives to suggest he’s a poor bet at around 4/1.

Chil Chil

Still progressive at the age of 5, he clearly improved from first race to second this season having finished runner up on his seasonal debut before winning by 3.5 lengths last time out. Both of those runs came at Newmarket and he does go very well there but he’s also a winner over this course and distance. He’s gone up 13lbs this season which makes winning this very difficult and he looks reliant on fast ground so Friday's rain has to be considered a massive negative. Stall 30 puts him right on the rail though so he can take the shortest route home.

Rohaan

You don’t get many 3yo runners in this and the last winner from the classic generation was Bel Byou back in 1987. He’s a group 3 winner over course and distance so has plenty of class and whilst that win came on good to firm, he won a group 2 next time out in heavy ground so it looks as though any rain won’t bother him.

What is most amazing about this horse is he was rated just 55 in December and now he runs in a handicap off 112. He’ll be seen to better effect here off a strong gallop than he has been in smaller field group races but he’ll need to be a group 1 horse to win this off such a high mark. If that’s the case then he may have been better served competing for twice the prize money in the Commonwealth Cup a day earlier. As a gelding, though, he was not eligible for that contest.

Pendleton

Caught on the line in a course and distance handicap two runs ago before winning at York, dropped back to 5f. He’s gone up 10lbs for those two runs this season but is clearly lightly raced and very progressive and it’s highly likely he’ll be able to defy this mark at some point this season. He’s drawn in stall 2 so can pop straight out on to the far side rail and he’s likely to race prominently. He’s one that will enjoy the ground although very testing conditions perhaps put an even further emphasis on stamina than he is comfortable with.

It’s worth noting that it was Fresh who beat him here earlier this season and that rival reopposes here on 5lbs better terms. Fresh did have the advantage of a recent run though which would give some hope of reversing the form.

Chiefofchiefs

The winner of the Wokingham consolation race last year, he’s been a big improver since dropping in trip and seems the ideal type for these big field handicaps at Ascot. He also ran well in the Victoria Cup this season when beaten 3 lengths into 7^th, not ideally placed. It could be argued that he’s not particularly well handicapped but he was an eyecatcher in a strong listed race on seasonal debut at Doncaster and he is still unexposed in big field sprints. He handles cut in the ground but he looks better on fast ground and his best chance of winning this would have been if the rain stayed away.

Fresh

One of the most lightly raced runners in this field and therefore open to more improvement than most. It was mentioned that King’s Lynn got within 2.5 lengths of the classy Starman last season, well in Starman’s previous race he was only a short head in front of none other than Fresh. This runner has progressed well since then producing form figures of 142251 in handicaps.

He’s generally had some very valid excuses when beaten. The ground was perhaps a little lively when a close 4^th at Doncaster, he was a nose behind Stone Circle here last season when one of the only runners to make up any ground on the entire card, he bumped into a rejuvenated Brian The Snail at Newcastle (would rate 13lbs higher a couple of months later, Fresh is only 6lbs higher here) and then on seasonal debut this season he was given far too much to do off a slow gallop in a race where the 1^st, 3^rd and 4^th all won shortly after.

He then beat Pendleton here on his latest start, on good to soft ground, and that runner up franked the form by winning well next time out. Lots to like and has run very well here on testing ground previously.

Desert Safari

Not the most consistent but talented on his day. He’s been below par on both good to firm ground and good to soft ground with a win over 5f on fast ground in between those efforts. He’s bumped into Fresh a couple of times in the past twelve months and wouldn’t be guaranteed to beat that runner on either of those runs and he’s looked mostly speed this season so there have to be question marks about this suiting. He’s capable of defying this mark and Frankie Dettori is an interesting jockey booking but he’s drawn right in the middle and there will be other days for this one.

Tis Marvellous

An Ascot specialist who has won here twice and also placed in two previous renewals of this race. He was also 4^th to Battaash in last year’s King’s Stand. The placed efforts in this race came off this mark of 101 and also off 99 so he does need to improve on those but he was in good form off a 2lb higher mark last time out, two lengths behind King’s Lynn and now 8lbs better off.

The problem for Tis Marvellous is the distance. It’s not that he doesn’t stay 6f, he’s just around half a stone better at 5f. Both his course wins and all his best runs here have come over the minimum distance. He also prefers fast ground so his fair chance of hitting the frame has probably turned into a slim chance on the very soft ground. Look out for this runner back here in a month’s time in the big field 5f handicap, on fast ground he’d look a good bet there.

Mr Lupton

A winner at York last time out (a course he often does well at) and still 8lbs lower than his peak rating, although that came 4 years ago. He’s finished 8^th and 12^th off this sort of mark in two attempts at this race and it’s unclear where the extra improvement is going to come from for him to get into the frame this time around.

Gulliver

Has seemingly gone on any ground in the past but seems better with plenty of cut in the ground these days. It’s also worth noting that his four turf wins have all come at York. He finished runner up here on soft ground off a much lower mark back in 2017 and was a good 4^th in this last year off a 3lb higher mark so he’d have definite claims on that form. Thoroughly exposed but does have a chance, especially now the rain has fallen. Place claims at the very least.

Hey Jonesy

Last year’s winner. Very much an in and out performer who barely beat a rival home in five start’s after winning this race last year but he bounced back to form last time out at Chester over further than ideal. He was admittedly well placed but the well placed runner up in that race has won since and he now comes into this just 1lb higher than when successful last year. This looks a deeper race this year and making all from stall 12 won’t be easy but he can’t be confidently ruled out with this clearly the target for a long time.

Punchbowl Flyer

Relatively exposed for a 4yo but evidently still improving having won his last two starts including a big field sprint on soft ground at Haydock. Plenty of cut seems important to him so connections will have been delighted to get the rain. He’s made all for his last two wins and won’t find dominating as easy here, especially as he’ll have a little crossing over to do from stall 19.

Great Ambassador RESERVE

Interesting if he gets a run. He has been well enough beaten in two starts here last year but both of those came over a mile and the effort on soft ground in last season’s Britannia Handicap wasn’t bad either. He had some interesting form on fast ground as a juvenile, finishing less than a length 2^nd to subsequent Group 1 winner Pyledriver and also in a Goodwood maiden when third to runners that would rate 96 and 101. The 4^th was subsequently rated 116!

You could argue that he’s better on the all weather, his form figures on artificial surfaces read 2121 whilst his turf form figures read 230773. However he was held up off a slow gallop last time when third on turf off a 1lb higher mark and he did have that good fast ground form on turf as a 2yo. A big field sprint at a course that can suit all weather runners could see a career best. The rain probably isn't ideal but he did perform fairly here on soft ground over a mile at last year's Royal meeting and he may get home better over the shorter trip..

Danzeno

An extremely consistent sort who has finished in the first three in all but two of his last fifteen runs, dating back to the start of the 2019 season. He’s run in this race for the past three years, finishing 17^th, 3^rd and 9^th. He comes into this in good form and is potentially well drawn in 29 but he’s difficult to win with and is probably best at 5f these days, or at least an easier 6f.

The Verdict

It's entirely possible I haven’t mentioned the winner from the above (there have been a couple of 33/1 winners in the past decade) but seven of the last ten winners were 18/1 or under and with some exciting runners near the head of the market there is a very good chance it’s one of those that leads this field home.

It’s worth noting that five year olds do very well in this race, six of the last eight winners were that age. By far the most fancied five year olds this year are Chil Chil and Pendleton. The ground has probably gone against Chil Chil so by far the most appealing 5yo is Pendleton but he might be vulnerable to a stronger stayer late on.

King’s Lynn may well win but he’s a crazy price considering the depth in this contest. Rohaan is probably a bit more interesting than King’s Lynn. It will be a monumental effort to win this off a mark of 112 but even if you don’t like his group race form, he still gave a pound and a short head beating to Diligent Harry who is rated 106 heading into the Commonwealth Cup on Friday so it’s difficult to argue Diligent Harry is badly handicapped. I just have a gut feeling he won’t win from that mark but it will be interesting to see how he goes.

Chiefofchiefs and Tis Marvellous are both thoroughly exposed and would have been interesting each way shouts had the ground been better. Of the exposed brigade it is now Gulliver who appeals most given he has run well here on soft in the past, ran well in the race last year on ground that was probably too fast and he was a bit of an eyecatcher last time out at York, finishing well from miles off the pace.

The unexposed one of major interest though may well be FRESH who looks decent value at around 14/1. He looked well ahead of his mark still when beating Pendleton last time out and that runner up franked the form since. Fresh has run twice over course and distance and he’s been beaten a nose (unluckily) and he’s been victorious by a nose so he clearly goes well here. Really he should be unbeaten in two starts here and this will be the the strongest pace he's had to aim at here. He's weighted to beat Pendleton and really shouldn't be a bigger price than that one.

If Great Ambassador gets a run he'd be interesting but the ground may well have gone against him. If he was particularly strong in the market he might be worth a small win only bet.

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 4 Preview, Tips

16 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 4 Preview, Tips

Day four of five, Friday, at Royal Ascot features a brace of Group 1's, the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes, as well as the usual smattering of inscrutible juvenile dashes and impossible full field handicaps. We're guessing on the ground a little at this stage (Wednesday lunchtime) and, given the forecast, I'm working on the basis of somewhere between good to soft and soft. [Why can't it ever just be dry all week for Royal Ascot?]. Let's crack on...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo)

Juvenile fillies stretching out to six furlongs opens the Friday card and 15 are due to go to post. With no Wesley Ward wepwesentation, it's an Anglo-Irish affair, the Irish component brought by O'Brien's Senior (Aidan) and Junior (Donnacha). Aidan brings Prettiest, an atypical fast starter for him, who made all at Navan just over a fortnight ago. Indicative of a thawing in the cold war between Darley and Coolmore, she's a Dubawi filly out of, naturally, a Galileo mare - and not just any Galileo mare, but three-time Group 1 winner, Alice Springs: nice pedigree! Prettiest is bred to get further in time but she's also bred to be very, very good.

Donnacha's Elliptic was a winner over five on debut before being given a little too much to do from the back of the field in a six-furlong Curragh conditions event. By first season sire Caravaggio, she'd be a terrific early notch on his score card if prevailing though she looks to have a bit to find on that Curragh effort for all that the stiffer six here may suit.

Hello You would be a significant scorer for the nascent Amo Racing ownership team, spearheaded by football agent, Kia Joorabchian. He has invested significantly, as Tony Stafford alluded to earlier in the week, and an early success on the big stage would doubtless trigger further welcome loosening of the purse strings at a time when a number of racing's wealthiest ownership entities have lost their figureheads.

Getting back to Hello You, she was mightily impressive in sprinting more than six lengths clear of what looked a competitive field in a Wolverhampton novice last month. If you're a little sniffy about it being an all weather race, then note that last year's Albany winner, Dandalla, also won her sole previous start on the all-weather, as did 2014 Albany winner, Cursory Glance; and 2017 Coventry winner, Rajasinghe.

We can see from her running lines (on the 'show sectionals' component of the inline form on the race card) that she was seventh, more than four lengths behind the leader at the second point of call (half a mile from home), and she was still four lengths back in fifth at the two pole, the third call point in the image. A furlong later, the fourth call point, she'd taken a narrow lead which, by the line (another furlong later) she'd extended to six and a half. She's smart.

Team Crisford, father Simon and son Ed, send out Flotus, a daughter of the once subfertile but now fully loaded (!) Starspangledbanner. She was most of five lengths ahead of her closest pursuer in a Goodwood novice run on soft ground. She'll handle conditions and looks to have plenty under the bonnet.

Oscula, the Woodcote winner, has been impressive on the helter-skelter cambers and undulations of Brighton and Epsom the last twice so is clearly a well-balanced and talented filly. Whether she has the same degree of progression of some of her rivals here is another question, as is the expected slower turf. Still, she's answered all questions thus far and adds to the puzzle.

Not many win Newmarket six-furlong novices on decent ground by five lengths-plus, which is testament to the ability of Cachet, a Highclere Thoroughbreds daughter of Aclaim, himself a very good seven furlong horse. That said, the Newmarket form has taken a few knocks, the second, fourth, fifth and seventh all off the board at least once since.

Andrew Balding won the six furlong Coventry on Tuesday and runs Kirsten Rausing's Bobby's Kitten filly, Sandrine. She won a Kempton novice on her only start and had Oscula back in third as well as a next time winner a place behind her. Balding's juveniles usually improve for their first run. Geegeez-sponsored jockey David Probert rides.

The Gosdens' Qatari-owned Sunstrike was nine lengths behind Hello You on debut before winning by a small margin at Kempton; she has plenty to do to reverse places with Hello You.

Albany Stakes tips

The daily jelly-nailing exercise that is a) pinning down the novice form in the book and b) isolating those with most progress to come. It was impossible not to be taken by Hello You's debut in a race where plenty were backed and perhaps she will be the big winner Amo seek after their Mojo Star ran that incredible second in the Derby. The purply-bred Prettiest (5/1) is another expected to be on the premises, and perhaps 16/1 Sandrine can reward each way support at a double figure price and give David P a big winner. I'm sticking mainly with 5/1 Hello You here.

3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

A three-year-old Group 2 over a mile and a half for the Ascot Derby, as the King Edward VII Stakes was originally known.

Eight go to post one of which, Gear Up, ran in the actual Derby. He was well beaten off there having led and looks to have a fair amount on his plate again; that said, he did win a French Group 1 last October when the going was heavy so might bounce back.

The favourite is Alenquer, who continued his upward trajectory when beating subsequent Derby winner Adayar in the Sandown Classic Trial. That form is working out well further down the finishing order, too, the likes of Sir Lucan scoring in Pattern company since. Alenquer had run two good races on soft ground last term and racing manager Armando Duarte is bullish about his chance. But then, I suppose he would be.

Back in third at Sandown, less than a length behind the winner, was Yibir. He's been beaten twice since, on the quirky pistes of Goodwood and Chester, so while this more conventional circuit might suit better he looks opposable.

A horse I quite like is Sir Mark Todd's Tasman Bay, apple of the former-showjumper-turned-racehorse-trainer's eye (ah, hyphens). A big chap, Tasman Bay was impressive when scooting clear of his rivals in a Newcastle novice, and gallant in defeat to first Hurricane Lane and then John Leeper, both of which contested the Derby (the former finishing third). He has more on again here but is expected to improve with time and racing and he could hit the board.

From the Roger Varian stable comes Title, a maiden winner at the third time of asking three weeks ago at Yarmouth. He did that well having failed by fine margins twice previously and, as a son of Camelot, might appreciate the slight step up in distance and easier ground. He has a bit to find on the book with some of these but should bridge at least some of that gap.

The Coolmore entry is The Mediterranean, a - you guessed it - son of Galileo. He was a close second in a Listed race at Leopardstown over this range a fortnight ago and is another with more to offer.

Gloucestershire, the horse not the county, takes a giant stride up in class from the Kempton maiden he won on his lone juvenile racecourse visit. Trainer Martyn Meade must be pleased with how he's working at home to tackle a gig like this but he will need a chunk more than he showed at Sunbury.

The octet are completed by Belloccio, a Listed winner on soft ground last backend who was well behind Alenquer in the Sandown Classic Trial and Hurricane Lane in the Dante. A return to softer footing may bring him closer to his Esher rivals but it is hard to envisage a full reversal of placings.

The projected pace looks even:

King Edward VII Stakes tips

ALENQUER could be a very good horse and 2/1 understates that a touch for me. He met with a setback which removed any notions of a supplementary Derby entry and yet he comes here bidding to frank the Derby form in a roundabout way. There are others sure to be capable of more but so is the favourite who starts from a higher level of demonstrated ability. I expect he'll just about win.

3.40 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

A brilliant addition to the Royal Ascot Group 1 roster is this six furlong sprint for three-year-olds only. This year the market is headed by a pair of overseas raiders, one from America and one from France.

French sprinters are not typically as good as British and Irish ones - see the roll of honour for their Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye for confirmation of that (they did get the winner last year) - but our Gallic cousins have a fast filly in the form of Suesa. She is unbeaten in four starts ranging from five and a half to six furlongs, all on softer than good and all at Chantilly, most recently in a brace of Group 3's. She seems tractable in terms of run style, having raced very prominently and from midfield, and has a fine turn of foot albeit that French races are often a little steadier in the early furlongs than this is likely to be. Suesa looks the real deal and has a strong chance of completing the five-timer.

The American runner is Campanelle, Wesley Ward's 2020 Queen Mary and Prix Morny winner. Those two victories prove she can handle this track, soft ground and Group 1 company (at Deauville in the Morny). She ran with credit while not quite getting home in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and this will be her first run since that early November effort. That means we have to take both fitness and progression from two to three on trust; on the flip side, the very fact she's here implies ticks in those boxes: in Wez we truzt.

The shortest of the domestic party is Dragon Symbol, Archie Watson's Cable Bay colt having all but won a Haydock Group 2 last time. That was on heavy ground and it was a first defeat in five races. Oisin Murphy takes over from Adam McNamara and any give in the track is expected to suit.

Supremacy was a good winner of the six furlong Middle Park Stakes, Group 1, last autumn where he beat the proven Group 1 horse, and St James's Palace Stakes second, Lucky Vega. But he clunked last of eight on his 2021 debut having been sent away a shade of odds on. He gets first time blinkers here which is interesting, not necessarily in a good way. This Mehmas colt likes to lead in his races, but so do a few others.

Also prominent in the Newmarket autumn Group 1's last term was Miss Amulet, Ken Condon's filly running second in the Cheveley Park. She followed that up with a fine third - one place in front of Campanelle - at the Breeders' Cup before, as with Supremacy, blowing it big time on seasonal bow. But, unlike that one, Miss Amulet was stretching out to a mile in a true run heavy ground Irish 1000 Guineas. She patently failed to stay under those much more testing conditions than the tight turning firm ground mile at Keeneland. This straight six with a bit of ease might be ideal and she is expected to bounce back to some degree.

Measure Of Magic had fair form as a juvenile and she's won a couple of six furlong good ground Listed contests already this campaign. A step up is required to challenge the pick of these but she's moving in the right direction. Similar comments apply to the Ado McGuinness-trained A Case Of You, winner of four of his five starts either side of the turn of the year. That quartet includes a Group 3 verdict over Lipizzaner, and another G3 score last time out. His run style is just off the pace so this could set up if he's good enough. Soft side of good looks a prerequisite.

And I must mention a favourite of mine, Laws Of Indices, who was less than a length behind A Case Of You last time and has plenty of solid Group 1 form. The harder they go the better it will suit this second string to Ken Condon's Commonwealth Cup bow.

Most of the others don't really look good enough.

The pace map suggests plenty of early sizzle spread right across the track:

Commonwealth Cup tips

A great race which could easily go the way of one of the overseas pair of Campanelle and Suesa. But I'm going to roll the dice each way with a couple of longer prices in the shape of 25/1 Miss Amulet and 16/1 A Case Of You. The former is dropping back to a more suitable trip and the latter looks really nicely progressive and has optimal conditions. A penny win and place on 28/1 Laws Of Indices, too, because he might just bag one of these big ones. Every chance the trio fail to cut any ice but they're a scintilla of value in a very open race. Should be a cracker.

4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

The scene for the second Group 1 of the afternoon is the round mile over which Classic generation fillies will strut. The winner of the 1000 Guineas (and second in the French 1000) takes on the Irish and German 1000 Guineas winners in a proper smash up for mid-season mile primacy.

Mother Earth deserves her place at the head of proceedings having beaten all bar Coeursamba in two Classics. She was convincing on good to firm at Newmarket, and also quickened well in soft ground to lead at Chantilly before being run down by the winner that day. However, she only just got best of a four-way photo for second while the Newmarket Guineas form received no boosts from either the Oaks or the Irish Guineas.

That Irish equivalent was snatched on the line by the fast finishing Empress Josephine who needed every single yard to get by better fancied stablemate Joan Of Arc. Soft ground and a well run race were a feature of the Empress's two wins (from four starts) and she may get at least most of what she wants again here. Ryan Moore cannot defect from Mother Earth but he will be acutely aware that this filly, ridden as at the Curragh by Seamie Heffernan, may once more prove an unwelcome thorn in his side.

If those are father Aidan's duo, sons Joseph and Donnacha are both represented, too. Joseph sends last year's Group 1 Fillies' Mile winner Pretty Gorgeous to the party; that G1 triumph was on soft ground and while she was only seventh in the Irish 1000, she was beaten just three lengths after a difficult transit. Stripping fitter here, she'd be another credible player if getting back to her Fillies' Mile level. Frankie Dettori rides.

Donnacha's Shale has the outside post, 13, which will not help but she did beat Pretty Gorgeous twice last season - as well as losing to her twice - including when claiming the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs. Her two verdicts over PG were on good ground, her two defeats to that one on softer, the balance of her form suggesting she might not want too much rain (for all that she outclassed her rivals on soft to heavy in her maiden).

The Jenny Come Lately is Ed Walker's Primo Bacio, who was fourth in the Fred Darling before seeming to take a big step forward in a York Listed contest over seven furlongs. That was her first attempt at a mile and it was also on good ground; she's yet to race on anything more juicy than that. She looks short enough in the market.

Rejoining the Guineas thread, Novemba is a dark horse having made all in the German 1000, with fully seven and a half lengths back to the second. Dusseldorf, like this race, is a right-handed round mile and stall one will allow David Egan to pursue the same tactic if connections wish to. It's pretty hard to quantify that form but she did quicken smartly and may just be capable of going wire to wire.

The unexposed trio of Alcohol Free, Snow Lantern and unbeaten dual wide-margin winner Potapova are others with bits of chances in a fascinating and seemingly well up to scratch renewal.

Here's the pace map, excluding the overseas raider Novemba who is drawn 1 and will go forward:

Coronation Stakes tips

A great race in prospect. Luck in running could be a factor and one who will probably be out of trouble up front is 14/1 Novemba. She seems to have matured well from two to three and will give us a run for small money. If Novemba is taken on for the lead the likelihood is that this will be quite a test, as it was when Empress Josephine ran down Joan Of Arc at the Curragh. Her quote of 6/1 is slightly more tempting than the 7/2 about Mother Earth. It wouldn't be a surprise to see 6/1 Pretty Gorgeous go close but she won't be on my ticket this time.

5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Despite the big field in a handicap on the straight track this typically goes to a filly at the top of the betting lists. Or at least it did prior to 2017, when the previous nine winners were priced 11/1 or shorter. Since then, we've had winners at 20/1, 11/2 and then 33/1 the last twice. And this time it's 12/1 the field. TWELVE to one. Hmm.

Those two double carpet pokes were both trained by Charlie Fellowes and ridden by Hayley Turner so, while Charlie has nothing this time, Hayley rides Professional Widow. Second in three maidens, the Widow made no mistake at Nottingham on handicap bow (1m, good to soft) off 80 last time and is up just three pounds for that.

Jockey braces is a feature of the past six Sandringham winners: before Hayley, Jamie Spencer rode two and before him Frankie Dettori rode two. And, actually, in the four years before that, Richard Kingscote rode two.

Many people are now aware of Jamie Spencer's record on the Ascot straight mile; it sets up perfectly for his patient pace judgement. And, while it always looks dreadful when it doesn't quite come off, that's the nature of the riding style and all punters backing Spencer should know it comes with the territory. For me he's one of the best riders in the weighing room and has one of the best clocks of any jockey riding in Britain: excellent on the front end, excellent (in the right circumstances) from the back.

Let's put some factual meat on that rhetoric bone: since 2008, Spencer has ridden 33 horses in 20+ runner Ascot straight mile handicaps. He's won on four of them (+28 at SP) and made the first four on eleven occasions (each way +64.75). In the same time frame in all field size handicaps over the same course and distance, he's won 12 of 59 (+70.5) and placed on 26 (each way +124.68).

The Charlie Hills-trained Prado gets Spencer's services this time and she's a 33/1 chance at time of writing. It's easy to make her case: in four career starts she won a Salisbury novice before running (a distant) second in a soft ground Group 3 and then a respectable sixth in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes. Her most recent, and only 2021, spin was fourth over the round mile here, a piece of form that ties in with Primo Bacio in the previous race through Creative Flair. We know she'll be held up, as she has been in all her races to date. No better man and all that.

One who showed impressive acceleration in her most recent two races is Glesga Gal. She was flagged on the Fast Finishers report for the second of the pair as a result of the first, and she again showed that rapid last section as can be seen in the image below.

The three coloured blocks relate to 'OMC' sections, which is simply shorthand for the Opening, Middle and Closing parts of the race. As can be seen, in this case over seven furlongs that equated to the start to five furlong pole (S-5), five out to two out (5-2), and two out to the finish (2-0). The top trio of blocks are the RACE sectional data, and the trio inline against the winner are the RUNNER sectional data.

The green shades at the top indicate a fairly evenly run race. Compare against that the dark orange for Glesga Gal's closing quarter mile which she completed in 22.99 seconds and a finishing speed (i.e. the time of that section compared with the time she took to complete the whole race) of 107%. That's impressive.

Finally, look at the running lines bottom left in the image - the five bold figures with superscript numbers adjacent. These equate the five 'call points' - simply points during the race - and we can see what they are from the remaining data in the same row as the running lines, namely S-5, 5-4, 4-2, 2-1, and 1-0. Anyway, from the running lines we know that she was more than three lengths back in fifth at the third call (4-2, so the two furlong pole), had closed to within half a length of the leader by the furlong pole before running away by most of four lengths at the line.

Hopefully for some readers that was worth teasing out, because I strongly believe sectional timing information is a powerful attribute in the form reading kit bag.

Long and short, if she can transfer that acceleration from a turning all weather circuit over seven-eighths to a straight turf mile she'll be a player.

One other to mention in a race where I could mention 16 and miss the winner is Friendly from the Ballydoyle team. She was 'just another' filly from that top tier production line prior to the Irish 1000 Guineas where, as a 100/1 shot, she ran to within three lengths of the winner, eventually finishing sixth. She's still a maiden and this would be a great race in which to break her duck. A mark of 102 and top weight won't make it easy but a replication of the Guineas effort would probably be just about enough.

Sandringham Stakes tips

12/1 the field says it all. My three off the tee - all each way with as many extra places as you can find - are the Jamie Spencer-ridden Prado (33/1), the sectional fast finishing filly Glasga Gal (14/1), and is-she-or-isn't-she-really-as-good-as-she-appeared Irish 1000 Guineas sixth, Friendly (12/1).

5.35 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

A big field mile and a half handicap which is framed by one of those counter-intuitive draw biases with which regular readers will be familiar. How is it that a turning track favours middle to high stalls over the lowest berths? Part of it is to do with low numbers either doing too much too early or getting caught in traffic, I guess, but whatever the reason it's a 'thing' and it might impact the chances of runners here. Note, as ever, that nothing is cast in stone and horses have won from all draws; so don't be tearing up the rule book if trap one gets it done!

Overlaying draw awareness onto the pace map gives this technicolour yawn of a visual:

The green zone is middle but not held up and I'll work loosely in that section for my guesses.

Tritonic was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles in the spring on good ground and has Ryan Moore in the plate. He was fifth in the Triumph Hurdle and, before hurdling, he was a consistent handicapper at this level.

Ben Coen was a bit too far back last time aboard Mirann for his guv'nor Johnny Murtagh but that run showed this lad's suitability for a job like this. He won't mind any ease in the turf and looks well-bred (by Motivator) for a step up to a mile and a half.

The favourite at time of writing is Aaddeey, trained by the Crisfords and ridden by James Doyle. A lightly raced hold up horse he bounded away from his field when trying this trip for the first time the last day; he's up nearly a stone for that but it might not be quite enough. He looks a Group horse for all that he might need luck to show it today.

Zabeel Champion, trained by Mark Johnston, was 'rewarded' for winning his last three races by receiving the unkindest cut of all. Gelded first time, then, he's expected to be close up and may hang on for a place.

Winner of three of his last four, Dark Pine deserves his place. Those victories were all at shorter trips and, as a son of sprinter Dandy Man, I'd have some reservations about stamina for this assignment.

No such reservations with the Gosdens/Dettori entry, Grand Bazaar, who has won a similar race at Newmarket and is closely pegged with Zabeel Champion on his most recent outing.

One with the wrong run style and drawn low is Valyrian Steel. In spite of those potentially insurmountable negatives, I was really taken by this horse when he won on debut at Newcastle. Eight and a half lengths off the lead at the first call that day, he won by half a length going away. He followed up in less flashy fashion next time and has since won two of four further starts. A big strider I feel like this could be his kind of thing.

As always, every chance the winner has eluded me in the above.

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes tips

Very tricky. Too tricky, really. I want a tiny tickle on 12/1 Valyrian Steel, and another little bit each way on 11/1 Tritonic, and a third little bit win only on 13/2 Aaddeey. Interest bets only, though.

6.10 Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

A five furlong sprint handicap to watch somewhere with the wallet safely locked away. 25 three-year-olds spread across the track and hurtling licketty-split for the jam stick. This, my friend, is a cavalry charge!

Get It is an interesting pace horse in the low numbers. Fourth in the Windsor Castle last year over course and distance he won a small field novice at Wolverhampton on his sole spin this term (first off a wind op) and it looks as though trainer Clive Cox and connections have tried to protect his mark for this.

Even lower in the stalls is Caroline Dale, third in last year's Group 2 Queen Mary at the Royal meeting, and the Group 3 Princess Margaret over six here, and in a Listed contest at Newbury (soft). This will be her first run of the season so fitness is taken on trust, but she's quick and proven over course and distance.

23 others who could win...

Palace Of Holyrood Stakes tips

Too hard, but I'll have a florin each way on 20/1 Get It and 33/1 Caroline Dale and watch the high numbers sweep the board!

And that's that for our preview pieces this week. I hope you've been entertained if not informed by them, and that your betting has been both fun and profitable. It's not easy at Royal Ascot, nor is it supposed to be! Saturday is a day for you to find your own way (assuming you haven't been already), and I wish you luck with that when the time comes.

For now, though, thank you very much for reading.

Matt

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 3 Preview, Tips

15 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 3 Preview, Tips

I’m taking over from Matt for day three of Royal Ascot, but don’t worry, Matt will be back tomorrow. Thursday can often be one of the toughest betting days and with no less than three big field handicaps bringing the curtain down on this card most will be looking for some early winners!

The biggest question mark hanging over Thursday’s racing is the weather, and of course it’s effect on the ground. There are thunderstorms forecast overnight from Wednesday into Thursday and everyone knows how unpredictable these can be. You can get hit with 40mm of rain whilst the next town along can get nothing. They put 10mm of water on the straight course on both Saturday and Monday just to keep it good to firm so it will take plenty of rain to soften this surface, but plenty of rain may well be coming.

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Not much to go on here! Early pace is no disadvantage over the minimum trip here and a high draw is generally preferable over this trip. If there is a real star in this field they’d be well capable of overcoming either of those biases though.

Wesley Ward won this in 2013 and 2018 and there will be no hanging around for his runners. Lucci appears to be the stable first string and given he won just a 4 runner race last time he’s very difficult to assess, other than he looks very quick! He could be difficult to peg back from his high draw. Stable mate Nakatomi beat 10 runners when winning his only start on the dirt last time, also showing loads of speed. What effect any rain has on this pair is unknown, but Wesley Ward’s contingent generally prefer fast ground.

Aidan O’Brien also has two wins in this in the past decade and he saddles Cadamosto here. Amazingly he’s been a non runner six times already this season, twice because of soft ground. His sire No Nay Never won this in 2013 and his progeny often act on softer ground so he wouldn’t be without a hope if plenty of rain does fall but stall 2 might not be ideal.

Clive Cox’s runners massively outperform market expectations at Royal Ascot and he won this in 2012 with Reckless Abandon. This year he is represented by Instinctive Move who won well at Bath last time out. That form has been let down a few times since.

Only one runner can boast two wins from two runs and that is William Haggas’ Second Wind. He’s led on both starts so far, defied a penalty in a novice race beating a subsequent winner, looks well drawn in stall 15 and could be interesting at a fair price.

Norfolk Stakes Tips

Lots of unknowns so difficult to bet with much confidence but SECOND WIND has fewer question marks than most and he’s also won on both good to firm and good to soft which is a bonus ahead of an unsettled weather forecast. It will be interesting to watch the Wesley Ward runners in the market regardless of what happens with the weather.

3.05 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

A likely short priced favourite here in the shape of Mohaafeth for William Haggas. He was relatively well fancied for the Derby before being pulled out because of the rain so he definitely won’t want to see lots of wet stuff and is likely to be withdrawn if the ground is on the soft side. He was impressive in a small field last time out at listed level and looks a very exciting son of Frankel.

One Ruler carries a 4lb penalty in this courtesy of his Group 3 Autumn Stakes victory last season and he faces a quick turnaround having been well beaten in the Derby just twelve days ago. Both his runs this term have come in Group 1 races so sixth places in both the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby can be forgiven and he might find this intermediate trip suits perfectly. He’s versatile with regards to the ground but is vulnerable to an improver.

One feature of this race is a potential lack of pace Aidan O’Brien’s Roman Empire looking the likely pace angle.

It’s not easy to make all over this course and distance, even with an easy lead, and he’ll need to improve to take this having been well enough beaten last time in the Dante.

Given a lack of strong pace it could pay to race prominently here. In handicaps in similar conditions prominent racers have a 47.62% place strike rate. Movin Time is likely to be prominent and he looked an improved performer at 3 when taking a maiden in fairly impressive style last time out. The runner up in that maiden won by 6 lengths next time out and runs in Wednesday’s Queen’s Vase and Movin Time looks capable of further progress over middle distances this season.

Hampton Court Stakes Tips

Not an easy race to figure out but it could be worth chancing MOVIN TIME to prove up to this level (and possibly better). He may enjoy a tactical advantage and whilst several of these have already tried and failed to win good races, he comes here very much on the up.

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo fillies)

A key form line here could be Newbury’s Fillies Trial Stakes in which the unbeaten Eshaada edged out Gloria Mundi with Aristea and Twisted Reality back in 3^rd and 4^th respectively. Gloria Mundi was well placed off a slow gallop that day and is poorest drawn of the quartet here so she could be worth taking on. Eshaada undoubtedly looks the one with most potential of the remaining trio and she’s also the best drawn here so she looks interesting, especially if there is rain.

John Gosden has won three of the last four renewals of this race and if he doesn’t win it with Gloria Mundi, the mount of Frankie Dettori, he still has chances with Taslima and Loving Dream. The former looked in need of further when third at listed level last time out. The winner of that race finished 2^nd to Snowfall in the Oaks since so it wasn’t a bad listed race but you’d have preferred Taslima to have shown a bit more speed, even at 10f. Loving Dream was well enough beaten in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on soft ground and on his previous good ground 2^nd she has plenty of work to do to reverse form with the better fancied Noon Star here.

In hindsight Noon Star’s 3.75 length defeat at the hands of Snowfall looks pretty good form. She’s impeccably bred being by Galileo out of Midday and looks the potential class act in the field, both on form so far and breeding, so she shouldn’t be underestimated.

Aidan O’Brien won this in 2014, 2016 and 2018 so anything he runs commends plenty of respect. This year’s sole runner is Divinely, who has looked happiest on a soft surface to date. It’s a quick turnaround after the Epsom Oaks though so whilst she’d have a decent chance on form, especially if it turns soft, she’ll need to have recovered quickly from a fairly tough race.

Ribblesdale Stakes Tips

An open contest which seems to be the feature of the day. NOON STAR looks a very promising type who has shown form on a variety of going so far which is enough to persuade me she could be the one in this. Eshaada is potentially the biggest danger whilst Divinely has the form to win this but he’s a risk after contesting the Oaks so recently.

4.15 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Can Stradivarius equal Yeats’ record four wins in a row in this? Rain would be considered a negative for him but he’s won this on soft for the past two years so it’s possible all rain does is make him a better price.

This definitely looks a tougher renewal than last year though. Tough front runner Subjectivist won’t mind any rain and although he’s yet to prove his stamina, he’s got better the further he has gone. Last year’s Derby winner Serpentine could hamper Subjectivist’s chances though by taking him on early.

Stamina was always going to be Trueshan’s forte as he made his second racecourse start over a mile and a half. He enjoyed the step up to two miles when beating Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup by a wide margin. That form shouldn’t be taken literally but Trueshan confirmed himself a smart horse when finishing runner up to Japan at Chester last month. He’s fairly ground dependent so will want as much rain as possible but if it comes he’d have a good chance.

Spanish Mission has improved as a stayer in the past year or so and won what was admittedly a pretty poor renewal of the Doncaster Cup last year. His Yorkshire Cup victory last time out was a career best when accounting for Santiago who reopposes here. He’s one that won’t want any rain and might not enjoy this test as much as some of the slowly run races he has been running in over shorter.

Connections will be hoping the extra distance can help Santiago reverse that form with Spanish Mission. He got within 2.25 lengths of Stradivarius at Goodwood last year and the key to this horse could be rain. His best performances seem to have come when getting cut in the ground and a combination of this trip on softish ground could see a career best, especially with a couple of front runners in the field.

Ascot Gold Cup Tips

The going will have a massive effect on this race. On faster ground STRADIVARIUS looks a very good thing to equal Yeats’ record. He can often come there like he’s going to win by a wide margin only to end up toughing it out. In fact eleven of his last twelve wins have come by a winning distance of 1.75 lengths or less which is relatively 'unimpressive' for a horse considered a bit of a superstar. If you can find an ‘unders’ bet on the winning distance that might make him much better value.

If the ground was to end up softer than good Stradivarius would still be the most likely winner but the each way value could swing towards SANTIAGO who is still unexposed as a stayer and has spent most of his career racing on ground that was probably faster than ideal.

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, class 2 handicap, 3yo)

All eyes will be on the Royal Hunt Cup ahead of placing any bets on this and that’s the race most likely to highlight a potential draw bias. Without the benefit of knowing the Hunt Cup result at the time of writing we’ll rely on the Geegeez data to give us the draw pointers.

The data suggests no strong draw bias here but it’s worth remembering that sometimes nearside is favoured and sometimes far side is favoured, which is why both sides of the draw have performed well. It can be easier to get a run when drawn on a flank and the pace data strongly suggests you want to be with something that is patiently ridden so backing central drawn hold up performers will often be riskier than wide drawn hold ups.

Mithras is the early market leader in this for Gosden and Dettori. He only just got home in a traditionally strong Newbury handicap on seasonal debut but this year’s renewal has worked out really poorly and the fact that Mithras was well enough beaten at Sandown next time out is very disappointing and in line with the form of that Newbury run, even if this latest run was in listed company. Perhaps the ground was too soft last time out (might be soft again here) but an 8lb rise for that narrow Newbury win might still be harsh and he could one to take on.

Air To Air is one I’ve had in mind for this race for a while, he looks one of those horses that will be ideally suited by Ascot’s straight mile. He’s been called a few names for seemingly not going through with his effort in the past but after being gelded in March he seems an improved horse. He may have been beaten over 4 lengths when odds on on his following start but he was the only one to make up any ground over what now seems an inadequate 7f. That race has worked out extremely well too.

Bowman, who very much got the run of the race, hasn’t run well since but the runner up has won three times since, the 3^rd won on his next start and the 5^th went close last time out. Air To Air has since won twice himself and he took apart a fairly decent field last time out on his first start over a mile. He’s a bit more exposed than some but he’s improving and looks the typical Spencer sort on this straight course. His latest win came on fast ground but his previous win in novice company came on soft ground. That softer ground might not be perfect for him but at least he’s proved his versatility.

Roger Varian won this last year and assuming his reserve doesn’t get in he has two high drawn runners in this. Raadobarg has won all three starts this season including the Silver Bowl at Haydock in heavy ground last time out. He’s chased leaders in all three starts this season and could end up too close to the pace, plus he’ll want plenty of rain. Dinoo is the other one for Varian. He’s still a maiden after three runs but split two 100+ rated horses on debut on fast ground before blowing the start in a Group 3 on his second and final start last season. He was once again slowly away in a maiden this season and poorly placed off a modest gallop. You’d hope with a mark of 93 he could have overcome this sort of thing but the mile promises to suit and he could run well if the ground stays fast.

A 7lb rise for winning a 5 runner handicap by less than a length seems a harsh punishment for Aerion Power’s latest success but he shouldn’t be underestimated. The runner up and 3^rd came out of that contest and won making that 7lb rise look a bit more acceptable. Stall 1 and a prominent racing style are offputting though and he’d appeal more for something like the mile handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day or one of the 3yo handicaps at the July Festival the following week.

Britannia Stakes Tips

Many of the fancied runners in this seem quite likely to race not far off the pace which is rarely the place to be over the straight mile, especially in this race where there is a lot of early pace spread across the track. Perhaps some will be ridden more patiently but nothing is likely to be ridden with more patience than AIR TO AIR. Confidence would be increased if the ground gets no softer than good and if some of the lower drawn runners go close in the Royal Hunt Cup.

5.35 King George V Stakes (1m4f, class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Only a handicap but often won by a very smart sort, last year’s winner Hukum scored at Group 3 level later in the season. The draw may have a fairly large bearing on the result here.

A massive 17 of last 24 12f handicaps with 16 runners or more on ground ranging from good to firm down to good to soft have been won by double figure draws. Low draws have a PRB of just 0.41 with middle draws and high draws earning PRBs of 0.54 and 0.55. Fairly strong preference would be for something breaking from stall 8 or higher and this information hopefully makes narrowing down this difficult field a little easier.

Handicap debutant Nagano heads the market early for Roger Varian and he’s going to have to be extremely useful to win this from stall 2. He looks at least fairly handicapped off 94 based on his win over Mystical Dawn on his penultimate run (that runner has since gone close off 90) but he’s difficult to back from this draw in such a competitive race.

This is often won by a top trainer so it’s a surprise that John Gosden hasn’t had the winner of this since 1997. He runs First Light here who might be just about okay in stall 7, for all higher would probably have been better. Some will see form with John Leeper and be drawn to that but in that race, when First Light was 3^rd, Moktasaab was 2^nd, 2.5 lengths ahead of First Light, and he’s since been beaten in a handicap off 79. First Light has since won a soft ground Ripon maiden by 12 lengths but that race didn’t take much winning and there are probably better handicapped rivals, especially if it doesn’t turn soft here.

Sir Lamorack represents Aidan O’Brien who won this in 2019 and he seems to have a nice draw in 11. He ran on soft and heavy as a 2yo but his two runs this season have come on the all weather and good ground. He was withdrawn at Chester due to good to soft ground which might be an indication this runner will want the rain to stay away. He’s already proved himself in handicaps, he was an easy winner of a 10f handicap at Leopardstown last time out and the placed horses from that have placed again so it was okay form. He’s up 15lbs for that win so he’ll need to improve for the step up in trip, which he should do.

Kondo Isami is interesting on his York form. He beat Tashkhan by a short head there and Tashkhan won 3.25 lengths next time out. That runner actually reopposes here but Kondo Isami is 8lbs better off this time around so should have no problem confirming form. Kondo Isami got collared late on next time out at Doncaster over further and he might not have quite stayed, but he was also beaten by a runner completing a four timer so it wasn’t a bad effort. He looks Mark Johnston’s best chance and is well enough drawn in 9.

If the ground got very testing one who might prove overpriced is Act Of Wisdom. He was a heavy ground winner over 10f as a 2yo which suggests he’ll be a strong stayer and fast ground didn’t suit last time out at Newmarket. That 5^th last time was still a good effort though with the winner and 3^rd winning next time out. From stall 14 he could outrun his odds if the word soft appears in the going by race time.

King George V Stakes Tips

Plenty in this who could be anything and it’s a race that is potentially more interesting going forward than it is a betting medium here. If having a punt the value in this contest could lie with KONDO ISAMI if the ground is no worse than good, he’ll enjoy a likely fast pace and has plenty in his favour. If it’s softer than good then ACT OF WISDOM would come into the equation and he could be a bit underestimated in this. They might not be as potentially well handicapped as some but are both capable of running into a place at least granted suitable ground conditions.

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

What an easy race to end the card with! As usual in these contests the draw and pace will play their part. By the time this race is run there may be a clear draw bias to either side but without that information at the time of writing it seems an advantage to be drawn in either low double figures or very high (20+).

There isn’t such a need to be held up over this distance as there is on the straight mile. There is still some benefit to being patiently ridden but early pace holds up much better than it does in big fields over a furlong further.

You don’t see many 3yos run in this but William Haggas heads the early betting with Aldaary. He’s a course and distance winner but might have been better served by a mile and he’ll definitely want the rain.

Boardman is interesting chasing a four timer. The way he travels through his races means he should be ideally suited by this course but he’s potentially drawn a little lower than ideal in 9. He beat Ejtilaab last time out and that horse won his next start. He’s another that wants a little bit of rain.

One that won’t want the rain is Karibana who was a bit of an eyecatcher on soft ground here in May before winning at Chelmsford, nailing a well handicapped front runner on the line. He looks like he’d be ideally suited by fast ground at this course and although stall 11 is okay statistically a higher draw might have been preferable.

Persuasion has to be of some interest. He’s looks to have been saved for this since winning at Haydock six weeks ago.

The runner up has won since from a 3lb higher mark, the 4^th went extremely close next time out on ground that didn’t suit and has the chance to frank the form on Wednesday in the finale and even the 5th went close on his first run on fast ground since. Persuasion only went up 3lbs for that win and whilst most of his form is on faster ground, he has finished 2^nd on heavy ground so even if the ground softens he should be fine. Stall 24 looks good at this stage.

Buckingham Palace Stakes Tips

If the ground stayed on the fast side I’d be inclined to forgive Karibana for stall 11 (low double figures do have a decent record after all) and get involved each way. If betting early or simply looking for a solid selection in this contest PERSUASION seems to tick all the boxes and he can even be backed if the bad weather hits the course as he should be fine regardless of underfoot conditions, something that can’t be said about many here. The majority of the pace in this race is drawn high which could give Persuasion an extra edge over Karibana, even if the ground stays fast.

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 2 Preview, Tips

14 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 2 Preview, Tips

Wednesday, day 2, and another heptagon of sides to take or, in plain English, seven races to decode. Just seven sides to take in the feature Group 1, the Prince of Wales's Stakes at 4.20 also, but they promise a superb race. That main course is for later, before then we've some delicious-looking amuse bouches through which to work...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Juvenile fillies over the minimum kick us off and, this being Royal Ascot, Wesley has a live one at the top of the 22-runner list. She's called Twilight Gleaming and she'll be ridden by the brilliant Puerto Rican jockey John Velazquez. Second on the main (dirt) track at Keeneland on debut, she was an easy seven length winner when switched to the turf course at Belmont next time. You can watch that race here. It is hard to say what she beat, but the time was good even allowing for her being eased down.

As with most Wes runners she's fast from the gate, leading early at Belmont through an opening quarter in 22.22 seconds (they do have 'run up' so that's not from a standing start). She'll get the stiff Ascot five, will probably lead early, and will take some pegging back. Ward is 4-from-13 in this, and has amassed a further three placed runners.

Aidan O'Brien meanwhile is 0-for-15 - Aidan O'fer as my US pal DiLo likes to call him. O'Brien has saddled five placed fillies but, since Sophisticat (who?) was placed in 2001, his record reads 0000842909. And yet, here's Yet, a beautifully-bred daughter of War Front exiting a Dundalk maiden and currently second favourite. Only two horses have emerged from that contest, beaten off the board three times between them. In Yet's defence, she and the second (the reopposing Orinoco River) were seven clear of the rest and the second has not raced since either. We've kind of seen this show before, though, haven't we?

More credible of the Irish, but also more exposed, might be Quick Suzy, representing predominantly jumping trainer, Gavin Cromwell. She was touched off in a Naas Group 3 over six furlongs (soft) last time, when leading but not quite getting home. The winner was a 50/1 poke, the third was almost six lengths away and the 2/7 favourite was fourth. She'd previously won a six furlong Curragh maiden (yielding) by almost six lengths and she arguably brings the best established form to the party. But she's yet to race on fast ground. The drop back to a stiff five might be fine if she can handle the firmness; she won't probably have as much improvement as some of her rivals but they still have to show they can get to her level let alone beyond it.

Nymphadora, trained by Andrew Balding, emerged from arguably the hottest maiden of the year so far. That Newmarket race won by Desert Dreamer has thrown nine UK winners from 21 subsequent starters:

Nymphadora's part in upholding the form was snugly winning the Listed Marygate Stakes at York. The Marygate has been the springboard to Queen Mary success for four fleet fillies.

That maiden's winner, Desert Dreamer, lines up here having won again since, over six furlongs (good, Newmarket). The form is working out well enough with second placed Dashing Rat beaten only by subsequent Woodcote winner Oscula, and third placed General Panic winning a novice next time. Oisin Murphy will ride and I think his filly's chance is understated in the market.

There is a second US raider in the line up, and Frankie steers her. She's called Artos and is trained by George Arnold. Beaten far enough on debut the daughter of Kodiac got the verdict in a tight picture on her sole subsequent spin. That was over five and a half furlongs at Churchill (firm), so she ought to see this out. Whether she's good enough is another matter entirely.

Nick Bradley Racing are one of the owners of the hour, and they've done brilliantly with their buying. Mas Poder was a 22/1 first time starter when only two lengths fourth to Nymphadora in the Marygate and, having run green there, she might narrow the gap with her debut vanquisher.

There are others who deserve their place here, too.

Queen Mary Stakes tips

I imagine Wesley's filly, Gleaming Twilight, will go very close here, and 7/2 is probably fair enough. She might be an in running back to lay for those into such things as it will be a bit of a shock if she doesn't lead. After her I'm inclined to swing at prices in the form of 14/1 Desert Dreamer and 20/1 Mas Poder. There are plenty of extra places if you shop around and want to roll each way.

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

A three-year-old Group 2 over the St Leger trip these days, and a strong trial for that final Classic as a consequence. Aidan O'Brien has won half of the last 14 renewals, so no 'ofer' gags here. And this is a race that perennially goes to a fancied runner, 19 of the last 24 winners returning at 6/1 or shorter.

That gives a shortlist of one: Wordsworth, the Aidan O'Brien-trained 11/4 favourite. Second in two of his three runs either side of a big field ten furlong Curragh maiden win, he was last spotted straining to within a neck of the fairly well-touted Sir Lucan. He has progression and proven stamina on his side, and the fact Ryan Moore has opted for this one over Arturo Toscanini implies he's stable first string (though we all know that supposedly lesser runners from the yard usurp their better-fancied barn mates frequently).

Arturo for his part was a never nearer second of nine in a ten furlong Group 3 at the Curragh, which suggests this sort of range should enable him to conduct himself (geddit?!) meaningfully.

I mentioned Joseph's Royal Ascot blank yesterday and, while that might already be consigned to the dustbin of history, it remains a factor in my considerations as I write this (Monday afternoon) with regards to Ruling, a thrice-raced maiden albeit most recently when staying on over a mile and a half in a Leopardstown Listed.

Perhaps the biggest threat from the home team will be progressive handicapper Dancing King, a well-related but cheaply-bought-as-a-yearling (ah, hyphens) son of Free Eagle trained by the former Mr Queen's Vase, Mark Johnston. He, like Aidan, has seven wins in the race to his name; but unlike Aidan the last of them arrived in 2014. Since then, eight of Johnston's nine Vase runners have been double digit odds; he's still managed a 20/1 fourth and a 16/1 third.

Dancing King is battle hardened, progressive in small field handicaps and stays well. That might not be quite enough against some regally-bred and thoroughly unexposed rivals, but he'll give a run for pennies.

Possible pace map looks as follows, though plenty of these could run to a different style being so lightly raced:

Queen's Vase tips

I've been burned opposing APOB hotpots in this a number of times in the past decade, and I've finally got the message... in time for him to clunk no doubt! But it's easy to see the case for Wordsworth finishing "lonely as a cloud" in front of his field. 11/4 is all right based on trainer records.

3.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies & mares)

The more seasoned ladies step to the fore in this Group 2 the favourite for which is Lady Bowthorpe. That looks spot on after Lady B, trained by William Jarvis, ran closest to none other than Palace Pier in the G1 Lockinge a month ago. Prior to that she'd won a nine furlong Group 2 at Newmarket, a fair leap from the Class 4 all weather handicap she took this time last year. That's the best piece of form in the field.

That is, arguably, unless you take a literal perspective on the Middleton Stakes where Queen Power bolted up by eight lengths. With a couple of the beaten mares there running second in Group 3's since, there is at least some substance to the literal case. But that was ten furlongs. She'd previously been second to Lady Bowthorpe in that nine furlong Dahlia Stakes, and was third in this last year - beaten three lengths - when seeming to lack the miler's gear change. It feels like this might be the wrong slot for her though I fully appreciate that Sir Michael Stoute has been at this game a minute or two longer than me.

Perhaps the most interesting contender is the wildly progressive Double Or Bubble. She's had just four races, with only one horse finishing in front of her and that on debut. The Chris Wall charge was a four length scorer in a Class 2 handicap last time over seven furlongs, though beaten horses from there are 0 from 19 since the race which dents the form somewhat. There's plenty of stamina on the dam's side (by Dalakhani) so she ought to stay the mile.

Onassis won the Sandringham last season at 33/1 and also bagged a heavy ground Listed race two back. She's a likeable and versatile filly but doesn't look good enough. Lavender's Blue has little to find with Lady Bowthorpe and Queen Power on Dahlia form - she was a half length third - which makes her ostensibly interesting at double figure odds. She's run plenty of good races in defeat but was thumped in this last season.

Champers Elysees was a huge flag bearer for the emergence of Johnny Murtagh as a trainer last season, winning the Group 1 Matron Stakes, but she's dipped below that high water mark in a trio of fourth placed efforts since. A return to a sounder surface could see her improve on recent efforts and she's a square price.

And one other at hail mary odds is Indie Angel, trained by the Gosdens and ridden by Frankie Dettori. Surely that already means she can't go off at her current quote of 20/1. She wasn't far back in the Dahlia and the fact she's pitched in here might be a bit of a clue.

The Duke Of Cambridge Instant Expert looks like this - remember, green is good, amber OK, red not so hot (and don't totally believe small sample sizes)

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes tips

This revolves around Lady Bowthorpe, who laid to rest any suspicions that she could only operate at Newmarket when giving Palace Pier a race in Group 1 company at Newbury last time. She's not the wrong price at 2/1 but nor is there much margin for error. No, I'll watch her win while backing a 'value alternative'! Most appealing in that context is 14/1 Champers Elysees, a Group 1 winner over a mile just four starts ago. She has to defy the G1 penalty but gives only two pounds to the most credible of her rivals, and five to the rest. If the faster ground wakes her up, she's a big player. If...

4.20 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

A cracker for the day's highlight, the Group 1 Prince Of Wales.

Love has been backed in the early wagering skirmishes as though she's as least as good as last season. We have a lot in our lives - a lot of horses in our lives - so it's worth a quick refresher as to Love's 2020. It was only three races but, like, WoW!

First up, she sizzled more than four clear of her 14 rivals in the 1000 Guineas. Then she romped nine - NINE - clear of the rest in the Oaks (seems like small beer when next to Snowfall's 16 length destruction in the same race this year!). And finally, in the Yorkshire Oaks, she cruised to a five length verdict. Nothing got even remotely close to her.

But. But... now she goes against the boys and she rocks up to the racetrack for the first time in exactly 300 days. In a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. She will need to be on song.

Last year's winner, by almost four lengths, Lord North defends having won the Group 1 Dubai Turf in his previous run. He was beaten a few times in between and overcame a shallower field than this a year ago. It's not good general practice to oppose Frankie and Johnny (and Thady) but I'm against at the price.

Aidan O'Brien saddles Armory as well as Love. Short enough at around 3/1 he won the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester and the Group 3 Royal Whip at the Curragh either side of his best effort, a two length third in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was a 66/1 chance that day, a price in line with his form either side in the context of that championship race, and I don't really believe it. Again, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

Audarya won Group 1's in France and America last autumn, and this being her seasonal debut implies a similar campaign awaits. I love James Fanshawe and I love this mare; but I don't think she'll be quite ready this time.

I'm struggling to make a case for the 114-rated My Oberon who would look badly handicapped off that mark if eligible for such races. He was whacked in the Lockinge, was whacked in a Redcar Listed as 11/8 fav, and was second in a pair of Group 3's last year. He did win a four-runner Group 3 on good ground when trying a trip beyond a mile for the first time and that must be the key to his case: the step up to ten furlongs is credible on pedigree (Dubawi out of a Sea The Stars mare). If so, they've taken long enough to get there and are hardly pitching in half-cocked in this top rank Group 1. Again, connections are greatly respected but this looks a tough task.

Similar comments apply to Sangarius. And yet I've had a small each way ante post (three places, burglary). Sir Michael Stoute is justly renowned for taking his time to allow horses to achieve their optimum performance levels as they mature, and this chap looks off that production line for all that he showed some precocity at two. As a juvenile he won twice before a midfield effort in the Dewhurst, finishing the season on an official rating of 106. At three he had just two starts, winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes over course and distance on the second of them (having prepped on the Sandown Brigadier Gerard card), and ended the season rated 113. Last year brought a further brace of efforts, again winning on the latter occasion, this time in Listed grade. End of season rating 114.

He still has seven or eight pounds to find with the pick of his rivals, but in each of the last two years he's progressed to win. He was three lengths behind Armory on debut this term (remember, that one is 3/1 here) and four lengths behind Euchen Glen at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last time in a mad (seriously, watch it) prep for this. Today is his big day and, if Sir Michael has it right, he might get into the frame especially if granted the easy lead he sought but did not get at Sandown. Colin Keane is a very interesting jockey booking, though may be Juddmonte's retained rider in Ireland (I probably should know that, apols).

Desert Encounter completes the seven and is a great globe-trotting money-spinner. the now nine-year-old gelding has never won above Group 3 level in Britain and yet has amassed £1.1m in total prize money. Well played! He's been second a fair bit in the past year but he won't be second here. Nor first. Wish I owned ten per cent of him: the days they've had around the world. Lovely stuff.

The pace map, based on UK and Irish form only, looks thus:

Prince Of Wales's Stakes tips

A few imponderables in what could be a cracker. If LOVE is on her A game, she ought to win. She's top on ratings after her sex allowance is accounted for and, unless the three-year-old fillies were a rotten lot last year - not impossible - she could be a fine sight. But she's been off a good while and this is deep. Lord North is well suited to the matter at hand though I'm not completely convinced of his credentials; similar comments apply to Armory except that I'm not at all convinced of his credentials (cue easy win).

I suspect Audarya will have her days later in the year, I don't like My Oberon though expect the trip will eke a little more, and Desert Encounter has no secrets from any of us. That leaves Sangarius as a bet without the first two if you can find it. At time of writing one firm is 22/1 without Lord North, and I'd take anything 8/1 and up without LN and Love, especially if someone offers each way 1/4 1-2.

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

The mother of all head scratchers is the Royal Hunt Cup, a straight mile handicap with thirty runners, and three reserves in case any of the main field try to escape and make life easier for punters! Trends time...

Horses priced above 20/1 are 5/402 in the last 24 years (thanks to horseracebase.com) and -£261 to a £1 level stake. I'll go with the 20/1 or shorter group, who are 19/292 (-£38, so still some work to do. Duh!)

No horse has shouldered more than 9-05 to victory during that time. That's numbers saddle cloth numbers 1 to 5 semi-arbitrarily excluded.

The draw is seemingly against the lowest numbers though I don't have data to bear that out. However, perception is reality and if trainers and jockeys decide low is unfavoured they're likely to race middle to high. Self-fulfilling prophecy thereafter for low, forfeiting ground.

Indeed, in 16+ runner handicaps over a mile on good or quicker, either flank has been beneficial. More material by far is that midfield and held up horses have significantly out-performed those presented more forwardly.

So I want a late runner.

Ignoring those already eliminated, the pace map looks a little like this:

The favourite currently is Finest Sound, a Varian/Atzeni entry and respected very much as a consequence. Stall nine is fine and his form - notably when second in the straight mile Britannia last year (soft) - looks progressive and relevant. There isn't a ton of pace on quick ground, so perhaps a prominent to midfield run style will give his rider options depending on how fast they go in front of him. Obvious player.

But the one I'm most interested in is Irish Admiral. Trap six might put a few off but it shouldn't; so too might a fifth place finish last time, that too is a red herring: the Epsom handicap he contested then was a muddling affair (first three home 12/1, 12/1, 20/1) where the speed held sway, the winner going gate to wire. Unless Maydanny gets a total freebie - possible - this should play to later runners and Irish Admiral protected his mark in failing to land a blow on the Downs. This will be just his sixth lifetime run so there is sure to be more to come.

The Hambleton Handicap at York has been a good pointer to the Hunt Cup historically, and a few from there appear here. They include the very unlucky Brunch, whose second places this season have been in two of the North's most prestigious mile handicaps, the Hambleton and the Lincoln. Up three pounds for a neck defeat last time doesn't help, but this strong travelling hold up type has everything in his favour for another 'in the mix' effort.

Of those in behind, What's The Story (too much weight?) and Ouzo (not good enough?) are overlooked but Matthew Flinders enters calculations. He wasn't persisted with when his York chance had gone and remains on the same mark. Drawn bang in the middle, he'll be looking for gaps from the two pole; Oisin Murphy is better than most at threading the needle in these types of race.

The Irish don't run too many in the Royal Hunt Cup but they're two from seven in the last five years. They have three entered this year: Pepperoni Pete and Bowerman look poorly handicapped but Lafayette is interesting for Noel Meade. Consistent in big field mile handicaps on soft ground he won his maiden on good to firm and has been in the frame in eight of ten starts following his debut.

Royal Hunt Cup tips

Wide open. Obviously. Lots of bookies offering place concessions which is a solid alternative to splitting stakes win only in a race like this. I'll take a small win bet on Finest Sound as insurance and then try a few at bigger prices each way with many places. Irish Admiral at 12/1 and Lafayette at 20/1 are compelling in the latter scenario, as is 16/1 Brunch who will surely be within spitting distance of the first past the post. So many more to consider and that's why they're all big prices!

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

A lesser juvenile race, at least in the context of Royal Ascot juvenile races, and often a big priced winner - 100/1 Flashman's Papers anyone?

Those with two or fewer runs to date are the place to focus, and top four last time out. That leaves plenty but it eliminates some, which is a start!

In the last five years, Aidan O'Brien, Charlie Appleby and John Gosden have won this, with horses priced at 7/1, 12/1 and 20/1. Clearly they all stepped up on what they'd shown theretofore. Wesley Ward, meanwhile, won this twice between 2009 and 2014, but has gone 506000098 since then, all bar one returning 10/1 or shorter. Small samples, yes, but perhaps a reason for caution.

WW's Ruthin is favoured, the once-raced daughter of Ribchester a runaway trap to line victor at Keeneland. Like many Ward Royal Ascot entries, she is electric from the stalls and looks set to take the field along from her middle draw in 12. After that, I haven't really got much of a clue.

Horses exiting the National Stakes at Sandown, the Hillary Needler and Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley, and Epsom's Woodcote have been fair portents of good runs. That brings in Tipperary Sunset and, to a far lesser degree, Guilded, both from Beverley; Bond Chairman and Chipotle from Sandown; and Dusky Prince and Flaming Rib from Epsom.

Cutting to the chase, I'm quite interested in Tipperary Sunset who was game on the front and is now two from two. He's made all on softish turf both spins to date and this will be quicker ground and a quicker tempo; but he looks quite relaxed in his races so probably doesn't need the lead. The Two Year Old Trophy he won was run about six lengths faster than the Hillary Needler in which Guilded was second: she'll have to improve a ton to beat him.

But this is too hard for me.

Windsor Castle Stakes tips

I'll try Tipperary Sunset each way at 12/1 or so with extra places aforethought.

6.10 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 4yo+)

A new handicap on the round course for older fillies and mares. Easy enough, eh? Sheesh.

There could be a lot of pace here and, on the round course, that should make for a strung out field and my guess is advantage midfielders.

Roger Varian has won three Royal Ascot handicaps in the last two years from ten runners. What is more remarkable is that eight of the ten have made the frame. With that in mind, the inside drawn midfield runner Waliyak gets a check. Closer inspection reveals that, although she is making her seasonal bow, she was second in the (straight mile) Sandringham last season and has run over ten furlongs with credit since. She's not appeared to be quite getting home in truly run mile and a quarter races, so if this is the fast pace I expect it to be it could set up for her. Surprising that she's as big as 16/1 for all that she might prefer a bit more juice in the turf.

Lights On and Dreamloper are closely matched on their straight mile 1-2 last time here: there was a short head between them that day, three lengths back to the rest. Both raced handily there, a repeat of which would give them first run on presumed fading leaders but may also leave them susceptible to a mid-pack closer. That said, Lights On's draw in 17 of 18 means Ryan Moore may be forced to ride for luck whereas Oisin Murphy sends Dreamloper from eight which gives him options.

The unpronounceable Dalanijujo is fairly wide but quickened up well at Yarmouth last time off quite fast early fractions. She'd been racing at ten furlongs previously and the drop back to a well-run mile obviously suited; this will be that and William Buick is a jockey positive on the round course.

Naturally, lots of others with prospects.

Kensington Palace Stakes tips

I think Waliyak is a heck of a price if she handles the ground. Roger Varian's recent Royal Ascot handicap record is unsustainably good but this mare has draw, run style, profile and a fine young rider in her corner. I've backed her at 16/1 which is widely available at time of writing. And I've also had a go at Dalanijujo (I don't have to be able to say it to bet her!) each way at the same price. If they don't go fast early, another will probably win. But I'm expecting this big field on the round course will be a fun, but potentially frustrating, wagering watch.

And that's how Day 2 looks from this corner. Sam is taking over for our Thursday (Day 3) preview, and I'm back on Friday. As ever, it's every person for themselves on Saturday.

Good luck

Matt

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 1 Preview, Tips

14 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 1 Preview, Tips

More normal than the 2020 edition, but still not quite normal: that's the best way to view Royal Ascot 2021, a mid- to post-pandemic shot in the arm for British racing and its legion fans. Although no more than 12,000 of those supporters will be able to attend each day, the rest of us will be well served on the box courtesy of ITV and AtTheRaces.

The new normal for Royal Ascot is a quintet of seven race cards, thus 30 becomes 35 through the week. Mostly these additions are handicaps, some of which we saw last year and very few of which ought to meaningfully dilute the quality on show.

As an over-arching principle with Royal Ascot, we are trying to project forwards: most of the runners will have not yet reached the ceiling of their ability and gauging who might progress the most - as well as quantifying what has already been achieved on the basis of scant formbook evidence - is the order of the week. In other words, it's tricky old stuff.

Brevity has not historically been my strong point when previewing big meetings but I shall attempt to keep these daily (Tuesday to Friday, help yourself on Saturday) outlines to 4000 words if possible. Best get to it then...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

A return to the traditional start time and a reinstatement of the traditional curtain-raiser, the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight track mile Group 1 that has produced a couple of surprise results recently but is normally a procession of sorts for a well-fancied thoroughbred.

Accidental Agent in 2018 and, to a lesser extent, Lord Glitters in 2019 were hard to come by - for me at least; either side, though, were 14 victors sent off 15/2 or shorter stretching back to 2005's Royal Ascot at York.

It looks chalky again this time around, as the magnificent miler Palace Pier heads the lists. The four-year-old son of Kingman has won seven of his eight career starts, the last five of which at this trip, and on a range of going from all weather to soft to good/firm. Most of his top class efforts have been with some ease in the ground, a point which is one of only a couple of slight niggles in a very strong overall profile.

The other is Ascot's straight mile. True, Palace Pier won on a stiff straight mile at Newcastle, but that was in a 0-100 handicap. And he beat a high class field in the Prix Jacques Le Marois on Deauville's slightly easier straight piste where he benefited from a very well judged ride from Frankie. Sectionals provided by McLloyd reveal he slowed markedly in the final furlong there, but less so than his rivals. And he was beaten up the Ascot straight mile in the QEII on Champions Day on very soft ground.

On ratings, he's five pounds clear of his nearest rival, Order Of Australia. That one recorded his career top in the Breeders' Cup Mile, around Keeneland's tight inner oval and when sent off at 40/1. It was rattling fast there, which it might be here, but this is a straight mile and OOA doesn't have another piece of form within half a stone of that BC Mile effort.

Lope Y Fernandez is eight pounds inferior to the Pier on his best: on my book he's probably a seven furlong Group 2 horse. This testing mile, which I believe rides more like nine furlongs, should be beyond his stamina range.

Because of the tightness of the favourite and vincibility of his closest market rivals, it does look an each way, and especially a 'without the favourite' sort of race. In the latter context, I offer Lord Glitters. Winner in 2019 having been second in 2018, the passage of time is against him a touch but he was a Group 1 winner in Dubai as recently as March. Never nearer than his final position of fourth on domestic seasonal debut in the G1 Lockinge, he'll have been primed for this (as will most of the rest, in truth) and 8/1 without Palace Pier looks a bet.

Queen Anne Stakes tips

For all that I've tried to make a case against PALACE PIER, he looks very hard to beat. And I expect he'll win. This is a great 'without the favourite' race because I'm not sold on the virtue of either of the O'Brien entries and it's 20/1 bar the aforementioned trio in the main market. In that context, Lord Glitters looks a very credible each way without the fav bet at 8/1.

3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

This is a race that perfectly epitomises the guesswork required around a sizable field of nascent racers. It, like most Royal Ascot contests, doesn't especially play to my profiling strengths, though there are always 'ins' one way or another.

The market is headed by Wesley Ward's US raider, Kaufymaker. I can't find a tape of her race but it must be significant that WW pitches her in against the colts rather than going Albany or Queen Mary. There are some youtube videos of her working at Keeneland, and she is a typically big Ward juvenile: she won't be fazed by the colts. Whether she's good enough, who knows? Trainer pointers suggest she's good and Ward is quoted as saying she has a very long stride - which can be seen in the video. Ascot's straight six will test her stamina also, a test that all of her handler's juveniles have so far failed at Ascot. The table below shows two-year-old Wesley wunners (sorry) by wace (really sorry) distance. Wascal wabbit.

It's not a massive sample by any manner of means but it is pretty one-sided as far as it goes. It's enough for me to look elsewhere. But where exactly?

The ratings guys and gals are all over Ebro River, the quirky but talented slow-starter and fast-finisher. He rocketed by his field in the five furlong National Stakes at Sandown last time, that Listed contest run on soft ground. But he's a stressy horse so, while I think he can get the extra eighth I worry his temperament might prove his undoing. Loads of ability.

Gisburn is another to consider having waltzed more than six lengths clear of his Newbury novice field last time. That form may be only okay in behind but he could have hardly been more impressive.

The problem with Ebro River and Gisburn, and also with Irish raiders Masseto and The Acropolis, is that their form to date has been achieved on a soft surface. That, naturally, does not mean they cannot perform as well on a fast track, nor even that they won't improve for it; but it does mean we're in the dark about that element of the conundrum. Angel Bleu is another who fits this category.

Two who are unbeaten in one, both representing the Gosdens, are Dhabab and Tolstoy. The former, a £200,000 breeze up purchase in late April, repaid a sliver of his purchase price on the first day of this month when surging two lengths clear in a Leicester novice, finishing off well. He's sure to improve again - as are most of his rivals - and a straight six clearly holds no terrors.

Tolstoy, by Kingman out of a Frankel mare, and a home bred colt for Sir Robert Ogden, was less eye-catching in getting up late at Yarmouth. But that was a very steadily run contest where he overcame greenness and earned a huge sectional upgrade from us. Gosden runners typically improve a chunk from first to second start and debut winners are normally worth following throughout their careers; as such, this pair are interesting.

Coventry Stakes tips

Very hard. Kaufymaker has to defy Wesley's historical tendency towards five-furlong winners, and beat the colts in the process. Most of the rest of the top of the market are unproven on very fast turf, which makes it speculator territory for me. 17/2 Dhabab has achieved a little more than 12/1 stable mate Tolstoy, but he will have been well tuned by Mocklershill ahead of his mid-April breeze and so may have slightly less progression than his colleague. They are both playable.

3.40 King's Stand Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Always a brilliant race to watch, the King's Stand is a fast five contested by the best speedsters in Britain, and some of the best from further afield. There is, happily, a little more form with which to work this time.

Battaash stands above his rivals on ratings, and is the reigning champ, unbeaten in three in 2020. But he comes here off a fracture injury which required an operation and a pin in a joint. Again, we're into the unknown in terms of how that will affect him especially on very fast ground. If he's the same model as last year he'll very likely win, and after timers may be crowing about getting close to 2/1 about such an obviously brilliant sprinter.

But it's quite a big if for me, especially with a progressive three-year-old in the line up who could have more to offer: something she will need if the jolly's A game is on display. Cue Winter Power, the apple of Tim Easterby's eye and a winner of five of her eight turf starts though not yet above Group 3 level. She was a huge improver as a juvenile, stepping from a mark of 76 on handicap debut (where she won by five lengths on good to firm) to her current 114 official peg. That leaves her nine pounds to find with the favourite but joint third top against the rest of the field. As I say, if Battaash is himself he probably wins; if not, it's up for grabs.

The other two obvious alternatives are Oxted and Extravagant Kid. Oxted enjoyed an annus mirabilis last year and gave trainer Roger Teal a dream time of things. But the five-year-old has not quite been at the same level thus far in 2021. He has run well on his two UK starts this term when placed in minor Group races at Newmarket and York but it might be Newmarket, his favourite stamping ground, in July when we see the best of him.

Brendan Walsh, an Irishman training in America, brings his globetrotting star, Extravagant Kid, a winner of the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup night in March. As an eight-year-old veteran of fifty - count 'em! - races, he's recently been a regular bridesmaid having run second in five of his seven starts since September last year. The exceptions were when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint behind Glass Slippers, and that Meydan G1. Acklam Express, himself a fast horse but not considered a Group 1 sprinter hitherto, was just three-quarters of a length back in third on World Cup night and that, for me, anchors the form a touch. Their prices are 10/1 and 33/1 and I leave it to you to discern where, if anywhere, the value lies.

Liberty Beach is a bit of a heart-breaker, usually running well but in defeat. That was the case when she was third to Battaash in this last year, and when fourth in the Albany Stakes the year before. We're then into the realms of horses with a stone and more to find with an on-song favourite. That's a bridge too far.

There looks to be a ton of speed in the field, which is not hugely surprising but could set things up for a later runner.

King's Stand Stakes Tips

If the Battaash of last year shows up, he will win. But there are reasons to believe he may not, the key one being that injury and subsequent convalescence. But it's also worth remembering that his prior Ascot record, when crowds were in situ, was unconvincing. Running up to Blue Point twice was hardly poor form but it was good form in defeat. 7/4 doesn't quite accommodate those reservations in my view.

This might be the time for Winter Power to bloom into a Group 1 sprinter for all that she has a bit to find in order to do that. This will be only her second start as a three-year-old. Or perhaps Oxted will show he can win Group races away from HQ. He was only a length behind Glen Shiel on soft ground in the G1 British Champions' Sprint in October and, if returning to his best, he will be bang there. Extravagant Kid is normally on the premises and there are no clear reasons why that will not again be the case.

A no bet race for me because of the if's and but's about the jolly and very few plausible rivals at the top of the market; and most of the rest miles out of their ground in known ability terms.

4.20 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

To the round course for this mile Group 1 and a traditional crossing of swords between the major Guineas protagonists. And it's a wide open contest featuring the English Guineas winner Poetic Flare against a raft of unexposed rivals many of which avoided the early Classics. Indeed, Poetic Flare incredibly ran in all three of the English, French and Irish 2000 Guineas, running 162 respectively!

He got no luck in the run in France behind St Mark's Basilica, who himself sidestepped this in favour of the Prix du Jockey Club (which he won), and was only beaten a chin in the Irish version - to his stable mate, Mac Swiney. That's very solid form indeed whichever way you cut it. The negatives? Four runs in the space of six and a bit weeks, and a fifth run since 11th April; and the phalanx of upwardly mobile rivals from major yards. It is nearly four weeks since his most recent race so perhaps he's ready to go again; he's certainly able enough.

What of the remainder? Many chances.

First on the list is the Gosdens' Mostahdaf, unraced at two and unbeaten at three. That trio comprised a Newcastle novice, a Kempton conditions race and most recently the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown. Clearly that form is a beat and three-quarters behind PF, but it is interesting to note that Gosden senior pivoted from Heron to St James's Palace with the 2018 winner Without Parole and the 2019 second, King Of Comedy. A front runner drawn stall 1, but with three Ballydoyle entries in 2, 3 and 4, he may be tactically compromised but will get first run if good enough.

Mostahdaf has so far run only on slow surfaces - standard to slow both AW starts and soft at Sandown - so the terra firmer has to be taken on trust. The trainer's modus operandi is fully taken on trust.

Battleground is in here too. The product of a union between War Front and Found was sent off favourite in the Guineas but trailed home a too-bad-to-be-true last-but-one (ah, hyphens). He'll strip fitter and can be expected to get a lot closer than the last day to Poetic Flare. It's worth noting he won the Chesham last season at the Royal meeting.

Godolphin are represented by Highland Avenue and La Barrosa, perhaps principally the former. That first named has form tied in closely with Mostahdaf, not least when running to within a half length of the Gosden colt at Sandown. He's previously won the Listed Feilden Stakes over a furlong further and on ground a step quicker than the Heron, so has fewer questions to answer for all that his form is a crotchet below his last day conqueror. He'll stay well if it's strongly run.

La Barrosa looked a colt to follow when edged out by a stablemate in the Craven but fluffed his lines having travelled strongly in the Irish 2000. It's possible he didn't handle the very soft ground there - all previous efforts were on good or faster, including a 7f Ascot debut score - and, if so, he might come into the reckoning. But he has to improve a fair chunk on form as well. Not out of the question.

Lucky Vega was a talented - Group 1 winning and placing - juvenile last term, and has run 34 in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas so far this campaign. His wide draw feels like it should be a negative but historically has not been as can be seen below.

A truly run race where he can tack across and finish well might be just what jockey Shane Foley and trainer Jessica Harrington are after.

The one horse to finish behind Battleground at Newmarket was Thunder Moon, previously third to St Mark's Basilica in the Dewhurst on his final two-year-old run. That form puts him in with a squeak at a playable price.

Wembley was the meat in the St Mark-Thunder Moon Dewhurst sandwich but he's clunked twice since and is running out of excuses.

And still there are more, such as 2000 Guineas fifth, Chindit, and facile handicap scorer Naamoos amongst others.

St James's Palace Stakes tips

It's another fascinating contest. Clear form pick is 4/1 Poetic Flare, but they will be queuing up to take him down. In what might be a fast run affair, the likes of 15/2 Lucky Vega and 10/1 Thunder Moon are interesting for different reasons. But I'm keeping my powder largely dry, small bits on the above aside.

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2 handicap, 4yo+)

The first handicap of the week is the two and a half mile Ascot Stakes for older horses. Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore are normally the team, the duo combining six times for three wins and two further places. M C Muldoon is the one this time, not sighted on the flat since October 2018, but in decent form over hurdles this spring.

The fact that Moore will likely have had the pick of the Mullins trio and has opted for this guy is a big clue. The rest is, as with others up the page, taken on trust.

The Irish are responsible for the next two in the betting, both trained by Mullins': Cape Gentleman for Emmet and Rayapour for Willie. The latter is a French import whose form was all on a softer surface. On his first start for Closutton he was sent off 4/6 for a maiden hurdle and, after a two year break, faded into third late on.

Cape Gentleman is more obvious: A Grade 2 hurdle winner at Kempton two back, he'd previously bolted up in the Irish Cesarewitch on soft ground. Quicker is again a reservation.

Royal Illusion is the third Willie Mullins entry: he looks a touch more exposed.

At each way prices, Rochester House ran better than his finishing position in the Chester Cup last time (horror draw) and was fifth in this last year as well as second in the Goodwood Handicap over 2m5f. And Just Hubert won that latter race, is only four pounds higher now, and handles fast ground. Last year's winner, Coeur De Lion, was fifth and sixth in the two previous renewals so clearly handles conditions though he's crept up in the weights a little.

Lots more with chances, natch.

Ascot Stakes tips

Very open and I'll probably be annoyed that Willie Mullins wins it with a horse with impenetrable or no relevant form. Annoyed mainly because I'll have backed something else. My something elses will primarily be 10/1 Cape Gentleman and I'll roll each way with 18/1 Rochester House with a few extra places (seven with Sky, 20/1 five places elsewhere).

5.35 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Still two to go in the new expanded format and Tuesday's penultimate is the Wolferton. The top three in the betting are a combined 7 from 60 over the past 20 years which encourages the quest for a longer price. John Gosden has the best record with four winners from a dozen runners since 2009.

With his son he saddles Forest Of Dean, winner of a valuable York handicap and the valuable Winter Derby at Lingfield in his past six runs. Fast ground and ten furlongs is optimal for this chap; the appointment of Frankie Dettori for the first time since the York score is hardly a negative. Conditions look ideal for a big effort from stall 1 with my only niggle being getting locked up in traffic just behind the leaders.

Forest Of Dean has gone toe to toe with Felix in three of his last four starts, and will do so again here. There may be little between them once more, though I fancy the quick turf might play to Team Gosden over Team Botti.

At the top of the lists is Patrick Sarsfield, second in a similar race at the Curragh not quite a fortnight ago. The Joseph O'Brien runner will be bidding to break his trainer's 27 runner winless streak at the Royal meeting; it's clearly a matter of when not if but with no seconds and only a brace of bronzes from his yard so far, I'll sit the shorties out as a general principle. He was a Group 3 winner last season and is entitled to progress from that seasonal debut so won't shock anyone by passing the jam stick in front.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Solid Stone looks another late maturing sort off that particular conveyor belt, his most recent effort in winning the Royal Windsor Stakes (Listed) a clear peak. That puts him level with Patrick S on ratings but two back from the evergreen Euchen Glen. Now eight, Euchen won around four hundred thousand quid for connections and is a stalwart of the Jim Goldie team; he looked as good as ever when claiming the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last month, but might have been a smidge flattered by the mental tempo of, unbelievably, a four-runner race! He's a strong stayer - has won over two miles - so the harder they go the better for him.

Blue Cup put it all together for the first time in a while when dancing to victory in an Epsom handicap last time. A buzzy type who has often fretted his race away before the start, the first time hood might just be the key to him stepping forward now. His later running style and inside draw suggest a potentially difficult trip, however.

Wolferton Stakes tips

Very open and Joseph's jolly just might do it. But history says taking a flyer at a bit more of a price is often the way to go, so I'll chance 15/2 Forest Of Dean each way. The trainer's record is peerless in this event, the horse has optimal conditions and young man Frankie steering. That's plenty of yesses in a race full of maybes.

6.10 Copper Horse Handicap (1m6f, Class 2, 4yo+)

Ten past six, ladies and gentlemen. Ouch. The Copper Horse is back, and older stayers will rejoice; or at least their owners and trainers will.

It's a staying handicap so Willie Mullins is in the mix. This time he relies solely on Saldier and naturally called Ryan to ride. They say you should add around 40 pounds to a flat mark to work out the approximate hurdle rating. Well, working back from a timber-topping figure of 155 or so gives 115, which makes 103 look on the feasible side..! He was a Grade 1 winner in his prime and bolted up in an egg and spoon job on his first flat run since contesting Pattern contests in France in 2017.

The wheel has revolved once or twice since then but there were at least some embers still smouldering in his belly at Listowel nine days ago, which would have been a tonic to all concerned following a distinctly lacklustre top table campaign over hurdles last winter. He probably just wins, doesn't he?

Good luck with your opening day wagers. If you like another, or some others, feel free to leave a comment below. And thanks, as always, for reading.

Matt

Monday Musings: New Blood

14 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

If there is one thing horse racing in the UK needs above all else it is owners: men or women with resources, a love for the sport and the willingness to put up with the absurd economics of excessive and ever-rising costs against persistently modest returns via prizemoney, writes Tony Stafford.

The new player would need to be committed to the game. Like the brothers Maktoum, now down to two from four after first Maktoum Al Maktoum, Ruler of the Emirate, died in 2006 and, only this year, second in terms of age, Sheikh Hamdan also left the stage.

Nominally third in seniority but the long-term number two auditioning for the top job was Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, now in his 70’s after more than four decades’ involvement in our sport.

We had met in Kentucky and one day I sat with him and Michael (not yet Sir) Stoute as we waited near the famed King’s Head pub and eating house in Dullingham to see the young home-bred stock that the late Richard Casey, subsequently trainer of top handicap chaser Hogmanay, had in his charge. The Sheikh opined, “it doesn’t take ten years to build a breeding operation, more like thirty”. After last weekend, probably 38 years after our chat, with home-bred winners of the 2021 Derby and Kentucky Derby on the Roll of Honour, he has just about made it!

Hogmanay had been one of a package of ten horses I bought without the luxury of having the £100k to pay for them from Malcolm Parrish, owner of a massive stable of his own horses, a sort of precursor to Jim Bolger, but an Englishman based in France with carpet-making mills in Belgium.

Malcolm supervised the training but a M. De Tarragon, his head lad, held the licence and was officially responsible for the 100-head or so horses. I met him in July 1984 in the long-gone Cashel Palace Hotel near Ballydoyle but it was a total fluke as I was really over to meet David O’Brien who at 27 had become the youngest trainer to win the Derby with Secreto.

While the later O’Brien’s seem to have perfected the art of enjoying each other’s major successes, the 1984 Derby brought major tensions as the favourite and previously 2,000 Guineas winner El Gran Senor was lined up for a massive stud deal subject to his winning the Derby. In the race, Pat Eddery on the favourite appeared to be going far better than Christy Roche on the eventual winner but in a desperate finish was beaten a short-head.

The verdict had to delayed while Eddery objected but the result was upheld. Fortunately for the initial Coolmore team, El Gran Senor won the Irish Derby – his task eased by Secreto’s absence – and the Epsom hero also missed both the King George and Eclipse Stakes, retiring without racing again.

I had previously met David O’Brien on my trip that July to Keeneland, invited for my first look at the great Calumet Farm, owned by several generations of the influential Wright family. Then an outsider, J T Lundy married into the family and by this time controlled the place. His stewardship was to become a matter for serious concern in the city, but he had arranged a deal to buy 50 per cent of the would-be stallion for $20 million. The strain of training told on young O’Brien whose sister Sue Magnier says he is much happier tending his grape vines in France where he has been based for many years.

I was to see Calumet later when a previous contact, Henryk De Kwiatkowski, bought it and started the revival of the farm’s fortunes. Upon his death, his own family never having been interested in racing and breeding, new owners came in and it is again at the forefront in Lexington.

Incidentally, my wife recommended I watch the Netflix series The Queen’s Gambit and I was amazed when this epic tale about a female chess genius was entirely centred on Lexington. Right at the start her mother’s car is on New Circle Road, a mini-M25 I cruised every inch both ways during my many visits there. The scene again early in the seven-part series where the heroine plays a tournament at the Henry Clay school also invoked memories of a good friend of Brian Meehan, Henry’s grandson, who had several horses with him at Manton. Great series, you will love it, I promise!

Secreto was owned by a Venezuelan, Senor Miglietti, who also owned the main bus company in Caracas and had, it seems, connections with some less-than-reputable individuals in his country.

Down the decades, other major Arab owners have stayed the course, none more valiantly than Prince Khalid Abdullah, breeder and owner of dozens of the world’s great horses but two will do – Frankel and Enable. His passing, also this year, will no doubt lead to a diminution of seeing his pink, green and white on the racecourses of the UK and beyond and for the blue and white of Hamdan a reduction of 100 is immediately to be enacted.

Two Princes to suffer uncannily similar early deaths at the first years of the Millennium were Abdullah’s countrymen brothers Fahd and Ahmed Salman, both dead in their early 40’s. Their father has since become King Salman in Saudi Arabia.

I brought in Malcolm Parrish and Hogmanay because he was one of the ten horses. We got onto that tack as earlier he had sold two good horses to Michael Dickinson and I had a small part in that. “Want any more?”, he asked then elaborated. “Yeah okay, you can have ten for 100 grand, I won’t put you wrong,” he added.

Hogmanay was one of them but Rod Simpson, who had the job of sorting them out (and on balance did pretty well) said Hogmanay will never stand training, so the £5k he represented in the deal was deducted. For each of his eight wins (seven over fences) and £60k prizemoney a dagger went to the heart. In the end, I did manage to pay for them and there were some very decent animals among them. Later Malcolm bought both Lordship and Egerton studs in Newmarket before passing them on.

With deference to the Dixon brothers who head up the Horse Watchers, and who combine television expertise with phenomenally successful ownership, journalists are hardly likely to make that jump. But one man who has shown signs of joining racing’s big time is the football agent Kia Joorabchian, who has been one of the more visible personalities in the first months of the season.

His horses – 37 have run – have collected 22 wins and more than £400,000 in prizes. That compares with £240,000 in the whole of last season with 18 wins. But what gives the game away is that his horse Mayo Star, a maiden who finished runner-up to Adayar in the Derby nine days ago, earned £241,000 for that one run, so a touch more than for all last season’s exploits.

There is no doubt Kia has gone about it whole-heartedly. Using trainers like Roger Varian, Richard Hannon and Ralph Beckett he has not been shy to spend, paying for instance 460,000gns for a Shamardal colt he sent to Varian. Great King has won one of five starts and is rated 88. Of the horses he has run this year alone – he also has several similarly-expensive acquisitions from the recent breeze-ups in the pipeline - he has spent almost £6milion in acquiring them.

As the man behind the controversial Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano deals a decade or so ago, Kia has become a leader in his business and at 49 he is still a relative young man in racing ownership terms. This year his colours could be represented at Royal Ascot by up to 16 horses. Pivotal to his early success this year have been his two-year-olds with Beckett being joined by George Boughey and Michael Bell as having feasible chances in the juvenile events.

The best candidates in the purple silks must be in the Albany Stakes where once-raced 350,000gns Wolverhampton winner Hello You (Beckett) and twice-successful and cheaply bought Beautiful Sunset (Boughey) are due to line up and are both prominent in the ante-post market. He also has realistic chances with the Varian-trained and seemingly well-handicapped Raadobarg, £200k, in the Britannia, with Hannon’s Sir Rumi (£160k) as a potential second string.

Kia will have a major interest of course in the Euro 2020 championship as will another of the big soccer (and many other sports) agencies, the ICM Stellar Group’s boss, Jonathan Barnett.

From an earlier generation than Joorabchian, Jonathan, along with partner David Manasseh, sold the agency last year to the American group, but they remain in day-to-day charge. Their major players at the competition include four of the England squad (Mason Mount and Jordan Pickford, who played yesterday, as well as Jack Grealish and Luke Shaw who watched the 1-0 win from the subs bench). Gareth Bale (Wales) and Kieren Tierney (Scotland) will also be well to the fore at the championships.

Less than an hour after full-time at Wembley, Jonathan was watching his lightly-raced four-year-old Fitzcarraldo winning with a fast finish at Longchamp for trainer Nicolas Clement. Fitzcarraldo was a €27k buy that took time to mature but now looks like a stayer with a future. Clement, who is head of France’s trainers’ association, has a record of bargain buys having paid £30k for Ray Tooth’s Group 1 winner and later 2,000 Guineas second French Fifteen, who has been sending out jumps winners as a stallion lately.

Given a £40k budget to buy a yearling last autumn, Clement came up with a €21,000 daughter of Derby winner Ruler of the World and he rates her very highly. That’s the way Barnett, also owner of the decent handicapper Year Of The Dragon with William Knight, prefers it, rather than the Joorabchian method.

I bet the people that have been recruited to buy the Amo racing horses would be horrified at M. Clement’s behaviour. Watch out for Fitzcarraldo. I would not be at all surprised if later in the year the jumping boys come calling for this big strong gelded son of Makfi. Maybe then the Clement business acumen that turned a £30k colt into a £1.3 million Classic prospect and future stallion will be rather more in evidence.

Two Against The Field At Prices In Live York Handicap

11 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Most trainers, jockeys and bettors will have one eye on Royal Ascot here but there is still some good racing on Saturday and most of the live races look fairly solvable – ahead of a week where there will be many impossible looking puzzles!

This week’s preview is going to focus on the 2.35 at York, an eleven runner 7f handicap at York that will be shown live on ITV4.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Not the biggest field so unlikely to be much draw advantage but let’s see.

The win data here slightly favours middle draws, whilst the place percentages and PRB data suggest there is a very slight edge towards those drawn high. A difference of just 0.02 PRB between low draws and high draws suggest there is pretty much nothing in the draw in this field size and it’s pretty evident you can win from anywhere.

Don’t let the draw put you off anything or draw you towards any of the runners in this contest.

Pace

There are some significant pace biases over shorter distances here at York, but what about at 7f?

Once again we see some very fair data for this field size. The win and place percentages both suggest there is a marginal advantage by being slightly closer to the pace but with so little difference it looks a very fair course and distance. The place percentage for front runners in these conditions is 29.31% and the place percentage for hold ups is 28.13% so everything has a very even chance it seems.

Pace Map

With very little natural pace bias here the pace of this individual race should have a much larger bearing on the outcome than the course.

Not a huge amount of pace on here with Dazzling Dan looking most likely to take them along. It’s worth noting that Manigordo has been on the pace in two of his last three runs but he was unable to lead last time against several other front runners. Up in trip and with less pace on here he’ll have no problem getting the lead if he wants it.

National League is tactically flexible and has made the running in the recent past. He was held up last time but that was when slowly away at Chester from stall 8. Expect him to be much closer early on in this.

Ostilio has been a front runner for much of his career but he’s shown no spark in either of his runs this term. It’s difficult to expect anything different from him here but if he was back on his game he is potentially another pace angle.

Whatever happens this will probably be run at an even tempo. The likes of Golden Apollo and Queens Sargent will certainly be hoping the pace setters go off too fast as it will suit their come from behind style.

The Runners

A run through of each horse’s chance, in early odds order.

Dazzling Dan

He’d only previously tried 7f on heavy ground before this season but won comfortably on his first attempt at the trip on fast ground at Yarmouth, albeit only a four runner race, before a respectable 3^rd over the trip on good ground at Newmarket, a course where he has historically shown his best form.

He finished his 3yo season rated 104 and after an indifferent 2020 he was given a wind op when rated 90. His Yarmouth win was off 87 and he's back up to 91 here leaving him still well handicapped on his older form. It’s difficult to judge the strength of the form of either of his runs at this trip this season but it is worth noting that he was ridden prominently last time out, as were four of the first five home. He's also not guaranteed to be as good at York as he is at Newmarket.

Gifted Ruler

Lightly raced having had just five starts, two of which came last year as a 3yo. On this first of those he was 9^th of 11 at Lingfield, not beaten a great distance and looking as though in need of a stiffer test. He then improved dramatically on that effort back on turf, beaten just a short head in a six runner contest. That form was okay but nothing special. He’s been gelded since.

He’s still got plenty of potential but does need to improve again and he’s seemingly improved for a run in both seasons so far so could need this.

Baashir

Unraced as a 2yo and started last season well with a narrow 2^nd on debut (winner gave him 7lbs and rated as high as 91 that season) followed by an easy win on his next start in a weak novice. His form tailed off on his next two starts and he was subsequently gelded.

Started this season in good form again, finishing 2^nd to Cryuff Turn at Nottingham. The winner won again two starts later whilst the 3^rd was beaten just a nose on his next run so that’s strong form but that race was run over a mile on good to soft ground. Baashir was then dropped back to this 7f on his next start, at Chelmsford and was beaten 4 lengths, not in the same form. It’s not clear if this horse needs easy ground, a mile or is best fresh. It’s possible all three are the case. He’s opposable at 7f on fast ground but would have strong claims if able to repeat the form of his run behind Cryuff Turn.

Manigordo

Won at 25/1 three starts ago when making all over 6f at Thirsk in a race where not much got into it. That effort looked a fluke when he beat just one home at York but that race did come on easier ground and he bounced back to form next time out when 3^rd at Hamilton on faster ground. When winning at Thirsk he was reported to have improved for the drop back to 6f but on his latest run he did look worth another crack at 7f, for all he didn’t look particularly well handicapped.

National League

I was quite keen to be with this horse last season and flagged him up at the St Leger meeting when he was 3^rd at 25/1. He still hasn’t won since his 2yo days though and has to be considered a disappointment.

His best form has generally come on the all weather or on ground with plenty of dig in it, which is a worry here, but his 2^nd at 7f on good to firm at Redcar this season was a good effort as was his 7^th in the Spring Cup at Newbury on ground that was just on the fast side of good. He was slowly away last time at Chester and never picked up. The consequence of that has been connections deciding to dispense with the visor. It’s difficult to make a strong case for him, especially for win purposes, but it would be no surprise if he placed.

Golden Apollo

He's run well in some big sprint handicaps here in the past and although he’s done most of his racing at 6f, he has run well on all four attempts at this course and distance despite the fact that records will show he didn’t place in any of them.

He won the Ayr Silver Cup less than two years ago off this mark so isn’t badly handicapped, it’s just a question of his current form. He ended last season with a poor run in the Ayr Silver Cup and then didn’t look competitive on his seasonal debut at Haydock last time out, albeit on pretty testing ground. He has generally improved not only for his come back run each season, but also his second run, so it’s possible next time may be the best time to catch him although he could run well here.

Queen’s Sargent

Seems to have become poorly handicapped since his win in April and has been beaten in all ten handicap starts that have come off a mark of 87 or higher. Only two of those have come over 7f on fast ground though and on both of those occasions he has gone close to placing, beaten 2.25 lengths each time, in much deeper, big field handicaps. He’s probably not quite well handicapped enough to win this but should run well and might not get a better opportunity to win off this mark.

Admirality

One that has potentially been overlooked too much by the bookmakers for this race. I previewed the Haydock race in which he made his seasonal debut and I wrote this about his chances:

“A frustrating 7yo who has won just once in eighteen runs for Roger Fell but finished runner up on five occasions in that same period. He’s relatively versatile but is probably at his best over 7f on fast ground, his last nine turf runs on good or better at this distance have yielded form figures of 222133522. He won first time out two seasons ago but seemed to improve for the run last year. No seasonal debutant has even placed from this yard in the past 30 days from twelve runners which is a concern.”

He duly ran as though needing the run, competing 1.5f out and getting very tired in the closing stages. A drop back to 6f on soft ground next time was never going to suit so that ran is forgivable too and he finds himself back under ideal conditions, 4lbs better off than he started the season.

He has run well in 2^nd on both course and distance starts, finishing runner up to a course specialist on the first of those efforts on ground that was probably slightly softer than ideal before being beaten only by Documenting, a horse that would win a big field Ascot handicap on his next start off a 6lb higher mark.

Admirality is certainly not a horse to trust in a finish, he’s finished runner up five times since he last won, but he should outrun his odds here.

Golden Spear

Won in good style at Chester last month (had previously run well there) but hasn’t been in the same form in two starts since. He’s run some decent races here at York in the past but has been a non runner three times on good to firm in the past and the only time he has been allowed to run on ground this fast he was below form. The chances of him running a career best on fast ground look slim, being declared a non runner looks more likely.

Ostilio

Won the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot as a 3yo and finished that season a Group 2 winner, rated as high as 115. He still won a listed race last season but since moving to Paul Midgely he is yet to beat a rival in three tries, being beaten 47 lengths, 31 lengths and 20 lengths respectively. He’s only been dropped 2lbs since his last run so a sudden revival doesn’t look on the cards.

Troubador

Showed good form here (and elsewhere) as a 2yo and although he ran well on his second start as a 3yo he seemed to run progressively poorer as the season went on last year, being beaten 13 lengths on his only try at 7f (on good to firm), before being beaten 16 lengths here over 6f. He was beaten 10 lengths on his seasonal debut this year and looks best opposed.

The Verdict

I can’t confidently rule out any of the first eight in the betting here, and I don’t fancy any of them particularly strongly to win either! Dazzling Dan is probably the right favourite given he’s run well in these conditions on two recent starts and he seems a bit more consistent than most of these. Baashir looks a better handicapped horse but he’s yet to prove he can go on from his early season runs.

Most interesting at the prices are probably QUEEN'S SARGENT and ADMIRALITY, who both have ideal conditions and both of whom seem pretty consistent when getting these conditions. On a meeting at Thirsk (a course both enjoy) last season there is very little between them on these terms so they could finish close together yet again.

I’m not convinced Queen’s Sargent is quite well enough handicapped to win nor am I convinced Admirality has the bottle to finish better than 2^nd. Both are around 10/1 so could be considered each way wagers but the bets I’d be most interested in would be Admirality to finish exactly 2^nd (usually available with SkyBet as a minimum on day of race, he can be backed to finish 2nd to the field in forecasts as an alternative) and also a Tote Swinger on the pair. Not a race to get heavily involved in though.

Geegeez Gold: June 2021 Updates

9 June 2021/in Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Just a few small tweaks this month, and some minor bug fixes.

DR / RS columns in Card form

The biggest of the small changes, for me at least, is the addition of draw (DR) and run style (RS) columns to the racecard inline form. These valuable snippets of info can help understand whether horses were compromised by their pace profile in relation to the race conditions and, by the same token, whether they were favoured by those things. In other words, whether a horse can be marked up or down for recent runs.

Of course, in the case of jumps races - as can be seen above with the 22nd December form line - the output shows only run style (RS). In case the notations are not self-explanatory, they are:

L - Led
P - Prominent
M - Midfield
H - Held up

I'm excited about this change!

Gelding notifications

We have also added a gelding notification to the cards where a horse or colt had previously raced as an 'entire' (i.e. with his testicles still attached!) but is now sans noix. We record this for the first three runs post-gelding, as g1, g2 and g3. This race today articulates the full gamut of g123:

You may of course elect to use the g1 notification in conjunction with our recently published 'Trainer 1st Headgear / Surgery' report (shortened to H/S1 to us in the know!) which can be found here.

Bits and bobbins

A few other minor amends have also been taken care of, some of which you may not have even been aware were broken...

We changed the obnoxious green odds toggle on the card to a more congruent colour:

We reinstated official rating on Full Form mobile view:

We centred the 3LR label in pace data view (man, you've *no idea* how much this annoyed me!!)

😖

😍

We made the season dropdown on Full Form contextual to a horse's previous run:

And we removed the 'Show/Hide Inline' buttons from the Horses for Courses and Hot Form reports. Because there was nothing to display inline!

All tiddlers in the grand scheme of things, but the ongoing removal of friction and the addition of bits of information amounts to a great deal over time. I hope there's something in the above that will make your Gold experience marginally better.

Matt

Monday Musings: Epsom Wonders

7 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

Friday morning 6 a.m. and I was keeping one of an increasing number of early-morning assignments with my good friend Steve Gilbey, long-term right-hand man of Raymond Tooth, writes Tony Stafford. He habitually – for Steve is very much a man of routine – starts his morning at crack of dawn at the North Audley Street, Mayfair, Grosvenor’s Café just along the road from Selfridge’s.

His first unofficial action is to help the early-morning setting out on the generous pavement of nine round tables and 36 chairs, using his boxing and security-man strength to speed up the operation.

But as we approached on Friday, there was a difference. A nicely-tanned, fit-looking gentleman came towards us, beaming at Steve, interrupting his own initialising that first task of the day at the café.

“How are you, my friend?” he asked. Steve had often mentioned the owner over the years but only on our previous visit the week before to my enquiry, said: “No, it’s been ages since I’ve seen him; he’s been stuck in South Africa because of Covid”.

So here we were on the morning of the Oaks and I was being introduced to the café owner, Mr Bernard Kantor. It wasn’t exactly a year before, more like eleven months, that Mr Kantor was standing alongside The Queen on the presentation dais for the Investec Derby as she gave the trophy to the Coolmore partners of shock winner Serpentine.

Co-founder and long-term managing director of the bank which had for ten years sponsored the entire Derby meeting, he had since retired upon reaching the age of 70 – you would guess ten years less when you see him.

So here was a highly-successful man actually enjoying the physical release of helping his bijou business – “I love it, it is so old school”, he says – start its day.

We had a pleasant chat, as racing people usually do, with the news that he had already been speaking to his trainer William Haggas and expected a call from him before we left after our toast and in my case some very tasty bacon in between.

As we went out, he thrust a napkin with an email address and imparted the news that Sans Pretention was fancied for the 3.00 race at Catterick that afternoon. When I got a chance to look up the race I discovered not only was the Haggas-trained three-year-old a daughter of Galileo but that she was owned and bred by a certain Bernard Kantor.

Naturally she won and this went along as just another of the ridiculously-fortuitous encounters I have experienced in my long life – even longer than the man who sponsored the Derby and who in 2018 dreamt on the morning of the race he might be winning it himself.

Haggas-trained Young Rascal, a son of Intello, had just come out on top in the Chester Vase, beating Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee, but at Epsom while Dee Ex Bee filled the same position behind Masar, Young Rascal was back in seventh.

He won two more Group 3 races, both at Newbury, and a Kempton Listed to make his career tally five wins from ten starts and then he was passed on to Australian interests to continue his career. There is clearly a strong bond between owner and trainer and Kantor describes Lester Piggott’s son-in-law as “the perfect gentleman, someone who brings great credit to his profession and to racing”.

Obviously, there was little time to sample the benefit of the experiences of a man whose husbandry of his company even though he had basically lived in London for almost a quarter of a century, maintained its South African roots, always with the theme of inclusiveness of the entire population of his homeland.

But he did offer one nice moment. One year as they were erecting the presentation platform for the Derby, one of his staff showed him the three steps he had sourced up which the monarch would climb to reach the presentation area.

“I said, “can you get two taller steps?” and he asked me why. “Wait and see”, I told him. “So when the Queen came to the top step of two I had to bend down to reach her hand to help her up. As I did, right behind me a massive banner depicting “Investec” came into view. I thought he knew why then”, said Bernard.

By the way, I can’t wait to go back and try to get in between the two powerful senior citizens at least to take a couple of chairs out and next Tuesday is already in my diary. As I said, the bacon is delicious and so too are the lunches according to Steve. Grosvenor’s is open until five p.m. so if you want to sit in the sunshine just up the road from Selfridge’s, and sample “the life” I can heartily recommend it.

Ten hours after we left the café, a filly won the Cazoo Oaks by six lengths more than Shergar had won the Derby; four more than St Jovite’s margin in his Irish Derby and only second in terms of a Classic-winning distance in an attributed leading racing nation to Secretariat’s 31-length romp in the Belmont Stakes.

Big Red, though, was unbackable and faced only four vastly-inferior non-staying opponents already worn out by taking him on in the Derby and Preakness. Snowfall wasn’t even her stable’s first choice, that distinction going to beaten 1,000 Guineas favourite, Santa Barbara.

Two starts before the Oaks, Snowfall had finished eighth at 50-1, beating only two home in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket although if you have another look at the race you will hear the commentator calling her a close third in her pink cap.

But that was the day the caps between her and better-fancied stable-companion Mother Earth were inadvertently switched, so the white cap, intended for Mother Earth ended on Snowfall who was just hunted up once victory was out of the question.

The Aidan O’Brien team were given a disciplinary sanction for the mix-up but events for the two fillies in 2021 have been ample compensation. Mother Earth, ridden by Frankie Dettori as Ryan Moore partnered the much-lauded favourite Santa Barbara, won the 1,000 Guineas and on Friday, Snowfall, also with Dettori as Moore was again more-or-less obliged to stay with the now Oaks favourite but Santa Barbara never held up much hope as Dettori landed on his feet on an O’Brien Group 1 winner.

There was a race in between the 50-1 no-show and the best Oaks winner of all the years I’ve been watching racing and probably any in the previous two centuries. That was the Musidora when Moore made all the running on the 14-1 shot and just when it looked as though the better-fancied challengers would be coming to get her at the end of the ten and a bit furlongs she opened out again. Most observers on the day thought she might struggle to repeat it at Epsom.

I mentioned last week that O’Brien horses could suddenly make massive strides from two to three. Already up from an official 90 after the Fillies’ Mile, she was raised to 108 after York and with the look from that race and in her pedigree that stamina would not be a problem, she had to come into the Oaks argument.

But this was not an argument. Projecting the late York surge away from the trio that were chasing her at York another almost two furlongs on a more testing track and on rain-drenched ground clearly produced extra dimensions of superiority.

In the last furlong and a half, perfectly in tune with his filly, once Dettori grabbed the stands rails with a little tickle to the long-term leader Mystery Angel, the margin stretched exponentially. As with Secretariat who, once his far-inferior rivals were stone cold, put in an exhibition for the Belmont Park crowd, so did Snowfall in leafy Surrey.

If the Epsom finish line had been another furlong on, 30 lengths would have been a realistic margin. How Snowfall can lose the Arc off bottom weight with all the allowances against her elders and male opponents is hard to imagine. I wonder how daring Dominic Gardner-Hill will be in rating her after this?

We all expected, especially once Aidan removed his other five acceptors from the path of favourite Bolshoi Ballet, his own ninth Derby to go with the same record number of Oaks (Oakses? Ed.) looked almost a case of going down and coming back.

But while that can happen occasionally in a Derby, there are always potential pitfalls. Afterwards everyone was musing on why the favourite had so clearly under-performed. It was only as the generous praise for hard-working Adam Kirby, winner on Charlie Appleby’s well-deserved second score in the race with strong staying Adayar, that Aidan O’Brien was tweeting a ghastly-looking wound on the favourite’s off-hind leg where he had been struck into in the early scrimmaging.

Hopefully he can be brought back to full health to challenge Adayar later in the season, though maybe their future diverging distance requirements might make that unlikely.

Not 24 hours later, with last year’s Dewhurst winner St Mark’s Basilica annexing the Prix Du Jockey Club yesterday in such emphatic fashion to add to his earlier French 2000 Guineas success, Coolmore and O’Brien instantly re-established themselves at the top of the three-year-old colts’ division, too. It all makes for an exciting year.

Adam Kirby is such a nice bloke. One day coming back from a race meeting up north, one of my tyres blew but luckily it was close to the services on the A14. I limped into the garage and luckily noticed Big Paulie, formerly Adam’s driver, who had just stopped to re-fuel.

Paulie looked into the car, spoke to a bare-chested and clearly sleepy passenger who hastily pulled on some clothes and came out to look with Paulie at the damage. Within minutes they had changed the tyre with minimal help from the driver and we were all on our way. As I reiterate, very nice bloke is Mr Kirby!

Godolphin’s second win in four years started an astonishing day, rounded off by Essential Quality, who made the Belmont Stakes – the third leg of the US Triple Crown – his sixth win in seven career starts.

Before yesterday, Essential Quality, a son of Tapit and, like Adayar a home-bred Godolphin colt, suffered that sole defeat when fourth to the controversial Medina Spirit, absent from the field last night and with his trainer Bob Baffert now under a two-year ban from having runners at Churchill Downs.

Even if Medina Spirit is disqualified, as seems inevitable after two positive drug tests, the latter in a laboratory Baffert chose to carry out the test, there is no prospect of Essential Quality being the beneficiary beyond being promoted to third. Had he won the Derby, I’m sure trainer Brad Cox would have run him back in the Preakness.

In any case it was a memorable weekend for Godolphin, but even if they win ten more Derbys and three US Triple Crowns, it will never wash away for me the memory of a horse and jockey in perfect synchronicity slicing up the last furlong in the biggest show of superiority I have ever witnessed in a championship Flat race.

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Draw

Pace

Old Newton Cup Pace Map

Draw and Pace Combination

The Runners

Longsider

Grand Bazaar

Aaddeey

Valyrian Steel

Zabeel Champion

Midnights Legacy

My Frankel

Dark Jedi

Pablo Escobarr

Win O Clock

Soto Sizzler

Brilliant Light

Pirate King

Scarlet Dragon

Alounak

The Trader

Lost Eden

The Verdict

What Are Sectionals? And why should we care?

Understanding Sectional Data Terminology

Section

Sectionals

Sectional percentage

Finishing speed percentage

Par

Using Sectionals to Understand the Past, and the Future

Upgrade figures (UP)

Beware the well beaten outsider with a big upgrade figure

Big Upgrades in Slowly Run Races

Fast Finishers

Easy Fast Finishers

Bespoke Fast Finishers

Draw

Pace

Northumberland Vase Pace Map

Draw and Pace Combination

The Runners

East Asia

Indigo Times

Zeeband

A Star Above

Raymond

Byron Hill

Margaret Dumont

Blow Your Horn

Bellatrixsa

Cosmelli

Brasca

Vibrance

Cleonte

Red Force One

Autumn War

Dreamweaver

Rochester House

Monsieur Lambrays

Al Kout

Mr Chua

The Verdict

A Quick Whizz Through The Mechanics

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Summary

Draw

Pace

Wokingham Handicap Pace Map

Draw and Pace Combination

The Runners

King’s Lynn

Chil Chil

Rohaan

Pendleton

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