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Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdle Races

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This is the second instalment in my latest series on run style bias in National Hunt racing. After analysing non-handicap hurdles last time, it is time to move onto handicap hurdle races.

Pace, or the running styles of horses, has long been an area of interest as any bias can potentially give us an edge when analysing a race. It is still an area that many punters ignore, and the longer that goes on the better as far as I am concerned!

Apologies for the regular readers of these pieces, but for new readers I must give a quick explanation of pace (or run style, which for our purposes are interchangeable) and how Geegeez can help you.

The first furlong or so of any race sees the jockeys try to manoeuvre their horses into the early position they wish them to adopt. Some horses get to the front and lead (referred to as front runners); some horses track the pace just behind the leader(s); other horses take up a more middle of the pack position, while the final group are held up near to, or at the back of the field. Geegeez racecards have a pace tab which is split neatly into four sections which match the positional descriptions above. So we have: Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets are the scores that are assigned to each run style, which for a mathematician like myself are really helpful as I can make easy comparisons between different runners, courses, trainers, jockeys, etc.

As with my previous research I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids many falsely run races which are more likely to occur in a small field scenario.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall run style dataset for all handicap hurdles races in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all my number crunching – the pace section on Geegeez is another area on the site where you can gather individual course run style data from:

 

These figures are far more even than we saw in the non-handicap hurdle research. In non-handicap hurdles we saw front runners (early leaders) win roughly 18% of the time, form the smallest run style group. Here, though, leaders have won only around 12% of the time. That is to be expected given the generally more competitive nature of handicaps when set next to non-handicaps. Further, before we write off a leader / front running run style bias, it should be noted that the A/E figures still give front runners a positive market edge (1.06), as does an impact value (IV) of 1.35 - meaning early leaders are winning about a third more often than the overall population of handicap hurdlers.

That said, it is clear that the front running bias is weaker in handicap hurdles compared with non-handicap hurdles.

The success for each run style section has stayed extremely consistent over the last 12 years or so, as the following bar charts illustrate. I have split the handicap hurdle data into two in order to compare 2009 to 2014 results with those for 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

 

That's an amazingly strong positive correlation across all four categories in market influence (A/E) terms.

 

Comparing the strike rates give us a similar picture of consistency:

 

Now it is time to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to see whether any stronger edges emerge. With the data being consistent across the years I will review the following over the full time period (Jan 1st 2009 to July 31st 2021).

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Distance

Let us first look to see if race distance affects the strike rates or A/E values. I have split race distances into three parts as I did for the previous article: the groupings are again 2m 1f or less; 2m 2f to 2m 6f and 2m 7f or more. Here is a comparison of strike rates within each group:

 

These are a remarkably consistent set of figures for each run style group, regardless of distance.

Below are the Actual vs Expected (A/E) figures*.

* A reminder that you can read about all of the metrics we publish on geegeez.co.uk in this article

 

Once again, there is correlation across the board: perhaps slightly poorer front running stats for the longer distances, but that is probably not statistically significant. All early leader / front running A/E values are in excess of 1.00, which is noteworthy.

 

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Course

The second area to analyse is by racecourse.

Normally I like to concentrate on positive front running courses but to give readers more useful information I feel it is also worth sharing the course records where front runners perform relatively poorly. These tracks have all seen front running win strike rates of under 10% in the past 12 seasons, which may only partly be explained by field size:

 

We need to be wary about Cheltenham’s low figure as this is skewed by the fact that the average field size there has been a huge 16.5 runners. Hence, as front running tracks go I would liken it to Wetherby – below average, but nowhere near as poor as the raw strike rate performance implies.

Moving onto to the positive courses in terms of front running (early leaders) performance, and below is a look at those tracks with a handicap hurdle race front running win strike rate% greater than 13%:

 

14 courses make the list and I want to compare this list to the course list with the highest front running A/E values, with the hope (and expectation) of seeing most of the courses in both graphs:

 

As can be seen, 13 of the 14 courses appear in both graphs / lists – Leicester and Ayr are the ones to appear just once. This is extremely positive, implying the run style advantage to those who go on from the outset is still not fully factored into the market (insofar as it is predictable before the race begins - nobody said this was an exact science!), and it makes sense to look at a couple of these courses in more detail.

Bangor on Dee

Bangor-on-Dee tops the front running list in terms of strike rate and lies second when comparing A/E values. You may recall from the first article in this series that Bangor also topped the front running charts in non-handicap hurdles over 2m 1f or less. I did not look in detail at other distances at Bangor in that piece but I can reveal that the 2m4f trip in non-handicap hurdles saw a front running win strike rate of 32.6 % with a huge A/E value of 1.79. This add further confidence to the very positive looking handicap hurdle data here.

Let me break the Bangor handicap hurdle data down. I am going to be looking at percentage of winners from each run style section. Here is how the percentage split looks for all courses. This will help us when trying to appreciate the strength of any bias:

 

Over this trip the front running bias is moderate – the percentage figure for winning front runners is 16% compared to the all courses average figure of 15%. The one group that has performed above the norm here is the mid division group – 23% of the winners at Bangor compared with 18% for all courses.

Over two and a half miles, we see a big difference with front runners winning roughly a third of all races: 33% compared with the overall course average of 15% is a very significant finding and a very strong looking front running bias.

 

Onto the longest Bangor hurdle distance now of three miles:

 

Again, a decent enough front running bias over this trip. 22% of all winners have been front runners which gives them a solid edge of around 50% on the average front running strike rate at all courses across all distances. The A/E value for front runners over this trip is an attractive 1.66.

At Bangor therefore, potential front runners over 2m4f and beyond are definitely worth noting.

 

Ascot

I was quite surprised to see Ascot as giving front runners such a clear edge in handicap hurdles. I had perceived Ascot handicaps to be very competitive and thought front runners might actually struggle. However, at all distances Ascot’s front runners perform extremely well. Below are the two mile data:

 

23% of two mile Ascot handicap hurdle races were won by front runners – remember the average all courses figure stands at 15%. The A/E value is strong at 1.68.

 

I have lumped the intermediate 2m 4f and 2m 6f data together as they are similar distances and give us a bigger collective data set:

 

There is a stronger edge here with 27% of races won by front runners and fully 60% won by front runners or prominent racers. The front running A/E value is a huge 1.83.

 

Over the longest Ascot hurdle range of three miles, the figures are thus:

 

Again, there is a really solid front running edge (A/E 1.70) and, related, it seems harder for hold up horses to prevail (22% strike rate compared with the all courses average figure of 32%).

 

I have one final stat to share regarding Ascot handicap hurdles: fancied front runners, whose price was 6/1 or shorter, won 15 of 41 races. If you had been able to predict that these 41 horses would lead early, backing all of them would have returned you an impressive 88p in every £1 bet. Oh, for a crystal ball!

 

Other strong course / distance front running biases

Below is a list of other course / distance combinations where front runners have done especially well in recent years:

Sedgefield 3m 4f

The marathon distance of 3 miles 4 furlongs at Sedgefield would not necessarily be a track and trip where you’d expect handicap hurdling front runners to thrive. However, the stats suggest otherwise – the bar chart below compares the win strike rate percentage for each of the four run style categories:

 

Front runners have enjoyed a massive edge, backed up by a huge A/E figure of 2.26. It also can be seen that hold up horses have a miserable record showing that is extremely difficult to make up ground here over this distance. Most lower class marathon handicap hurdlers lack a gear change: who knew?!

 

Haydock 3m

Not quite as strong a bias as the Sedgefield one, but a significant advantage to the front again nonetheless:

 

Front runners with this kind of strike rate coupled with an A/E of 1.92 is not to be sniffed at!

 

Cartmel 2m 1f 

The final course/distance combo to share graphically is Cartmel's 2m 1f win strike rate, which demonstrates another strong looking front running bias:

 

Front runners in this context have produced a very satisfactory A/E value of 1.63.

 

Sticking with Actual vs Expected, there are five other course and distance combinations whose A/E value for front runners is in excess of 1.50 – they are:

Catterick 2m

Ffos Las 2m

Newbury 2m and 2m 1f

Exeter 2m 1f

Musselburgh 2m 4f

 

Those are well worth noting, and may provide a starting point for your own Query Tool research should you feel so inclined.

 

Hold up horses

For fans of hold up horses, there is a handful of course and distance groupings where the late runner A/E sneaks above 1.00. The A/E values are in brackets in the table below:

 

In races at these tracks and over these distances, front runners do not enjoy the advantage, conceding that to hold up horses. For the record, the Lingfield Park data in each grouping is very small indeed so caution is advised.

 

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles: Summary

To conclude, front runners enjoy far less of an edge in handicap hurdle races when compared with non-handicap hurdles, but there are still a number of courses (and/or specific course/distance combinations) where we need to be aware of a possible edge.

Elsewhere, there is a smaller number of track/trip combinations that tend to favour hold up horses.

Knowing how a race may pan out from a running style perspective is always an important factor to consider, and the knowledge of any potential biases a significant bonus. Hopefully the information above, allied to specific race pace maps found on this website, will give you a leg up with your handicap hurdle betting.

- DR

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Handicap Draw and Pace Bias

/in , /by

The big meeting this weekend is hosted by Newmarket as it’s Cambridgeshire day. The Cambridgeshire itself is certainly one of the toughest races of the season but I’m expecting to highlight some fairly strong course biases in this article so perhaps the race isn’t as difficult to figure out as it initially seems.

Cambridgeshire Draw Bias

On initial inspection, it might seem as though there isn’t much of a draw bias in the Cambridgeshire.

There is virtually nothing between win percentages and PRB data for the low, middle and high draws whilst the place percentages hint at high being slightly favoured over low and middle. The highest third of the draw has a place percentage of 16.67% whilst middle and low have place percentages of 14.35% and 14.14% respectively.

The individual stall data may reveal more of a Cambridgeshire draw advantage though.

The first thing to catch the eye is the fact that 8 of the top 9 PRB figures belong to double figured stalls and 6 of those are 19 or higher.

According to the draw data line graph, which is showing PRB3 data (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten), there is an increase in performance around stalls 20-24 so perhaps that is the sweet spot.

There is no rock solid trend here but it does seem a trend has been developing in recent years. It seems more often than not runners are favouring the stands’ side (high draws) and four of the last five Cambridgeshire winners have finished very close to the near side rail. All of those last five runnings have been won by horses drawn between 21 and 29.

Looking only at big field, 9f races here since 2016 there is now a clear bias towards those drawn high. Low draws have a PRB of just 0.42, middle draws have a PRB of 0.52 and high draws have an impressive PRB of 0.56.

The PRB3 line graph representing individual stall performance now shows what seems to be an increasing advantage towards those drawn high. There is though a slight peak in performance around the 12-14 stall mark as well for some reason.

The important points to note with this more recent draw data are that the top 21 stalls for PRB3 are all double figure numbers and 9 of the worst 13 performers are single figure draws. This strongly suggests we want to avoid low draws in the Cambridgeshire.

Cambridgeshire Pace Bias

Here is the data from the Pace Analyser for Newmarket’s 9f course in big fields.

It's a fairly small sample, as you’d probably expect, so take win percentages with a slight pinch of salt but it’s interesting to see that front runners dominate for win percentages. Early leaders have a very impressive win percentage of 9.38% which is more than twice the next best win percentage of 4.65% which belongs to mid division.

Given the sample size, the place percentages should give us a stronger idea of any likely Cambridgeshire pace biases. The top place percentage belongs to front runners as well but the difference in place percentage between front runners and mid division is negligible. There is also only a small drop off for prominent but the figure that really stands out is the place percentage for held up. That place percentage is just 11.65% and the win percentage is just 2.91%.

It seems that we want to avoid hold up performers in this race just as much as we want to avoid single figure stalls.

Cambridgeshire Draw and Pace Combination

This is the heat map, sorted by PRB since 2009.

And this is the same data but only for 2016 onwards.

The more recent data seems to be the data we should concentrate on but some of the trends should be cross referenced with the overall data as we are dealing with a limited sample size for this recent data.

Logic would dictate that if front runners getting the near side rail are at an advantage then leading from a high draw should be the best combination but it actually seems as though front runners are doing extremely well from middle draws. Leading from a high draw is also an advantage , but possibly not quite as much of one.

A higher draw does seem to suit prominent racers better than a middle draw though but that switches back again when dealing with those racing in mid division. Perhaps those on the near side rail that are settled in mid division find it too difficult to get a run through.

We’ve established that those that are held up do struggle to run into the places and it seems there isn’t much difference whether they are drawn in the middle or drawn high.

Cambridgeshire 2021 Pace Map

Any talk of pace biases is irrelevant without looking at the pace map as course pace biases can always be reverses depending on the pace setup in a race.

I often use pace maps that only show the last two runs but the majority of these are seasoned handicappers who have seen plenty of action so the above pace map takes into account their last four races. It’s worth noting this suggests there isn’t likely to be a pace burn up but no less than eight of these were early leaders last time out and three of them have led on both of their last two starts so it is probable there will be a bit more of a contested speed than this pace map initially suggests.

I’ve added two blue boxes and a green box to the pace map. The blue boxes show groups of runners that are likely to be disadvantaged by draw and/or pace whilst the green box highlights where the winner is most likely to come from. Based on the data from more recent years you could easily put a line through anything drawn 18 or lower so feel free to be more harsh with your own calculations.

Back to the pace setup, there is some pace amongst the lower numbers but three of the more likely pace setters are drawn in stall 29 or higher. With the ground possibly faster on the near side plus the majority of the pace this side too, I’m becoming more and more confident that the top half of the draw, and probably the top third, is the place to be.

How Well Handicapped Do You Have To Be To Win The Cambridgeshire?

This is an important question to ask. In these big handicaps you often hear about the ‘group horse in a handicap’. That’s not crazy talk either, in 2019 subsequent Group 1 winner Lord North took this race and the year before future Group 3 victor Wissahickon landed the spoils.

Last year’s winner, Majestic Dawn, is back again this year off a 10lb higher mark. Lord North, eventually rated 25lbs higher than when winning this and his stable mate, Wissahickon was rated 10lbs higher than his winning mark for this race within 6 months.

The 2017 winner, Dolphin Vista, was rated a stone higher than his rating when winning this within 5 flat starts whilst Spark Plug, winner in 2016, went up 8lbs for his victory and never rated higher.

Third Time Lucky (2015), subsequently rated 11lbs higher whilst Bronze Angel, who won this twice off marks of 95 and 99, also won handicaps later in his career off 104 and 105 with his rating going as high as 111.

Meanwhile Educate, the 2013 Cambridgeshire winner, went up 8lbs to a mark of 112 for his victory and although never rating higher, he did run to that mark of 112 several times in the next year.

So ideally you are going to need a horse to be capable of running to at least an 8lb to 10lb higher mark in the near future if they are going to have a chance of winning this.

On the subject of the official ratings, it’s also interesting to see what sort of rating does well in this race. You need a runner well enough handicapped to win but also classy enough to get into the race in the first place. This year there is 24lbs between the top weight and the bottom weight.

In the past 11 years all winners have been rated between 107 and 87 – difficult to rule many out on that for win purposes (only the top weight and two bottom weights).

Nine of the last eleven winners have been rated 94 or higher which would rule out the bottom thirteen horses as likely winners. A relatively big six of the last ten winners have been rated between just 94 and 99 and only a third of the field fall into that ratings band this year. Four of those are drawn in single figures if you wanted to narrow those runners down further. That would leave just the following runners:

Does The Cambridgeshire Suit Milers or Ten Furlong Horses?

This intermediate distance of 9f means we’ll see a mix of milers stepping up in trip and ten furlong horses dropping down in distance. Very few of these will have run at this distance last time out, or possibly at all in their careers.

Eight of the last eleven winners of this raced at a mile just before taking this contest and five of those subsequently won a race over ten furlongs or further. This probably suggests this is slightly more of a speed test than stamina test and milers definitely have a good record in this, or at very least horses with the speed for a mile (some may have raced over 10f previously as well).

Cambridgeshire 2021 Thoughts

A lot is made of John Gosden in this race. Yes he has won two of the last three renewals but he’s also only won two of the last ten, just as many as Marcus Tregoning. Gosden’s two runners both head the betting having both been given seemingly favourable high draws, although being drawn 30+ isn’t statistically as much of an advantage as being in the mid to high 20s.

Uncle Bryn didn’t make the grade to be a Derby horse this season but he returned from a 113 day break to win an average Ascot handicap last time out. He got the run of the race on a day where front runners dominated and he’s 2lbs badly in with his penalty. Frankie Dettori seems to have chosen stablemate Magical Morning over him and I think I’d agree with Frankie’s choice.

Magical Morning brings some really solid handicap form into this but he very much got the run of the race when winning off a 7lb lower mark at Sandown in July and he’s been beaten in his other five handicap starts. Given most runners need to be 8lbs to 10lbs well in to win this, I just can’t see him being a 114+ horse.

Astro King is one I had in mind for this for a while. I backed him in the Royal Hunt Cup and this 9f trip on fast ground might be perfect for him off just a 4lb higher mark than at Ascot. Had he been drawn ten stalls higher he’d be a fairly strong fancy but 17 is a bit low for me to get involved, certainly at single figure odds.

In the last six years there have been three 3yo winners, a 3yo runner up and a 3yo third so younger horses clearly go well in this. Anmaat is an interesting contender for this and has the right sort of profile. He’s 2lbs well in having beaten the probably well handicapped Faisal last time out at Doncaster and he definitely looks the sort who could be at least 8lbs to 10lbs well in. He’s maybe drawn a little lower than ideal in 22 and does have to prove he’s speedy enough for this having raced over 10f on his last three starts but he’s certainly place material at the very least.

Irish Admiral is still feasibly handicapped and has seemingly now got his act together but stall 15 is a bit low for my liking. Given stall 2, and his overall form level, I’m also against Montather and surprised he’s as short as he is. Long Tradition could be anything but the form of his recent runs isn’t that strong and he has a little to prove in first time cheekpieces on handicap debut.

Bedouin’s Story is one I am tracking closely. He did second best of those held up at Sandown in July, best of the double figure stalls in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and then again was best of those held up at Chelmsford last time out. He stays this far, even though most of his runs have been over shorter and he’s going to win soon when getting the right set up. This should be run to suit but whether or not his hold up run style will allow him to get involved is a big question mark.

I’m finding it very difficult to make a case for much else, for varying reasons, but one does standout for me at a price of 100/1 at the time of writing with a couple of bookies. Naval Commander ran in a hot race at Sandown last season on ground that was probably a bit soft, on a day where he was a bit too patiently ridden to feature. He was 6th and those in front of him that have continued to race this season have rated 18lbs, 16lbs and 13lbs higher. Naval Commander is just 1lb higher here.

He did win on his next start after that Sandown run. That was his seasonal debut this year in June. At Ascot on his next start he was third – the winner and runner up both won next time out and the 4th has been beaten by a short head since. He was then 6th, beaten a length and a half at York – the winner, runner up and 7th have all won since and the 3rd and 4th have placed since. His only run since was a close third at Epsom when not getting a clear run. He’s still lightly enough raced to prove better than his current rating. I’m not convinced this horse should be any bigger than 33/1 and even at that price I’d have made him a small bet. First time cheekpieces could do anything to him but it’s worth remembering first time blinkers did the trick for Majestic Dawn last year.

All things considered I’m probably sweetest on Naval Commander as well as Astro King and Anmaat. I can’t completely rule out Astro King based on a draw of 17 and then strongly fancy Anmaat from stall 22 but Anmaat is just about on the cusp of how low I’d be willing to go whilst Astro King is unfortunately a bit too low for me (and a shorter price than Anmaat). So my two against the field would be ANMAAT and NAVAL COMMANDER, both each way, at around 12/1 and 100/1 respectively.

Hot Form at Chester

There are a trio of horses that are interesting from a hot form perspective in the 2.35 at Chester on Saturday which is a 7f handicap.

Muntadab’s course and distance success (from stall 8) two weeks ago has been well boosted since with the 2nd, 3rd and 7th all winning next time out. The 5th and 6th also reoppose here but they were well enough beaten to not be of interest here. Muntadab is only 2lbs higher here and is much better drawn in stall 2. He’s unlikely to get quite as easy lead this time though.

The Kodi Kid was an eyecatcher in that race and he’s previously run in hot races at Chester already this season. He’s not entered here but is one for your trackers.

Mossbawn’s last two wins at Thirsk have both worked out well, particularly his latest victory. The 3rd, 4th and 7th have all won since whilst the 5th, who reopposes here, was 2nd on his next start. That 5th, Strongbowe, did best of those held up when behind Mossbawn and he should be marked up for that. He’s 3lbs better off than Mossbawn for a 1.5 length defeat and he should get closer this time around.

Muntadab, Mossbawn and Strongbowe are all well enough drawn and should all be prominent if reproducing their run styles from last time out. I’d be surprised if all three didn’t run well and there is perhaps a tricast, or at the very least a decent single amongst them. Slight personal preference would be for Mossbawn who is lightly raced and on a roll but Muntadab does have that important Chester form.

Pace Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdle Races

/in /by

With the evenings now sadly drawing in, many punters will soon begin to think about the upcoming National Hunt season, writes Dave Renham. So Matt and I felt it was the right time to revisit pace bias in National Hunt racing. In the past I have written several articles for Geegeez on the topic of pace and for this piece I am going to take an in depth look at non-handicap hurdle races.

I appreciate many of you reading this will have read some or all of my previous articles, but for new readers it is important to explain what pace in a race means and how we measure it. Pace in this context is connected with the running styles of the horses. When I look at pace bias my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on.

geegeez.co.uk has an excellent pace analyser tool and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on that tool’s pace data. The data on Geegeez are split into four styles and accompanying points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The numbers in brackets are the pace scores assigned to each section.

For this article I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids falsely run races which often occur when there are small fields.

The first set of data contains the overall pace stats from all 8+ runner National Hunt non-handicaps in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21:

 

It is important to keep in mind that the number of runners in each pace group varies: there are far more runners in the prominent and hold up categories as you can see. 'Leaders' is the smallest group as usually you only get one early leader in this type of race, occasionally two when there is a contested early lead. Hence although raw strike rates have relevance, it is more important to look at Impact Values (IV) and the A/E index (Actual winners/Expected winners).

Leaders clearly have an edge as a whole, with prominent racers the next most successful. Therefore, as a general rule of thumb, in non-handicap hurdle races you want to be focusing on those horses that are the most likely to lead early (or at least race prominently and close to the front end).

When we have looked at draw biases on the flat we became aware that such biases can evolve and change over time. In terms of pace bias, though, I have always hoped (or assumed) that they are less likely to change much, if at all, over time. To check this theory out I decided to split the non-handicap data into two and compare 2009 – 2014 with 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

 

Excellent correlation across all four pace categories so, because A/E is a measure of market performance, this gives increased confidence that the value in any pace biases is likely to replicated in the foreseeable future. Comparing the strike rates shows a similar level of consistency across the two time periods:

 

So we have a good starting point from which to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to establish whether front running bias is stronger or weaker under more specific conditions. As the data seems consistent across the years I will analyse these areas over the whole time period (2009 to July 31st 2021).

 

Impact of Run Style by Race Distance, Non-Handicap Hurdles

I always feel distance is the best place to start when drilling down into pace data. A look first at the shorter distances.

2 miles 1 furlong or less

 

These figures are similar to the overall stats for all distances, so let us review by course. The chart below compares A/E values for all courses (min 50 races) – courses with A/E values of 1.00 or bigger are shown:

 

Bangor On Dee has the highest front-running A/E value at 1.48 and when we break the overall course stats down, we can see other metrics which point to that extremely strong front running bias:

 

Not only does the front running edge strengthen, it is clear that hold up horses struggle even more than the norm. For the record, if you had been able to predict the front runner(s) in each race at Bangor you would have made an SP profit to tune of 38 pence in the £. If only it was that easy!

The next chart shows the courses with the lowest A/E values for front runners over this trip:

 

Doncaster racecourse has the poorest figures for front runners and the overall stats for the course are as follows:

 

I think what this shows is that the course and distance stats are definitely worth drilling down on. The difference between Bangor and Doncaster at this distance range is very significant.

Before moving distances I would like to share some stats around performance of "the favourite" based on their running style:

 

Again, this shows clearly the importance of pace and running style. It still bemuses me how certain trainers continue to hold up their runners, when surely it is generally worth pushing them up with or close to the pace.

 

2 miles 2 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs

It is always difficult to group National Hunt distances ‘perfectly’ when analysing large data sets, but for this article I wanted to split the full gamut of race distances into three parts and this seemed like a sensible middle distance grouping.

Here are the pace data for all courses for all non-handicap hurdle races over the 2 mile 2 to 2 mile 6 trip:

 

The figures are similar to the shorter distances though possibly the front running bias hass very slightly diminished. In terms of courses, amazingly Bangor on Dee is top again from a front running bias perspective – there is unquestionably a marked advantage to those horses that lead early at Bangor.

 

I thought for this interim distance group I would investigate some run style trainer data. I wanted to see which trainers had been the most successful when sending their runners out into the early lead in non-handicap hurdle races of 2m 2f to 2m 6f.

To that end, below are two graphs – firstly, trainer performance with front runners in terms of win strike rate; and secondly, looking at their respective A/E values.

 

 

As you might expect there are a high proportion of trainers that appears in both charts. Nicky Henderson tops both lists but this does not mean he sends a huge proportion of his runners to the front early; it shows, however, that when he does they fare extremely well. For the record here is Henderson's breakdown by running / pace style over this distance block:

 

His front runners clearly do best in terms of win strike rate, A/E value and IV. It is interesting though that only 11% - one in nine - of Henderson's horses actually take the early lead. But nearly half of them win!

It does make me wonder if trainers are really aware of pace bias... Below is his 'pace pie chart' in terms of percentage of runners that demonstrate a particular pace or running style.

 

44% of his runners raced off the pace early which is far too large a number in my opinion.

 

2 miles 7 furlong or more

The third and final grouping are the longer distance non-handicap hurdle races, from just shy of three miles upwards.

 

There are far fewer longer races as can be seen, but the same pattern emerges. Front runners perform best with prominent runners next best.

 

Trainers by Run Style (All distances)

I have already touched upon trainers but thought it might be interesting to create some trainer pace figures. To create the trainer pace figures I have simply added up the Geegeez pace points for a particular trainer and divided it by the number of runners. The higher the average the more prominent the trainer tends to race his charges. I have created trainer pace figures which cover all distances in non-handicap hurdles. Here are the trainers with the highest averages:

 

Rebecca Curtis tops the list and clearly favours positioning her runners nearer the front than the back. Her 'pace pie chart' below demonstrates this even more clearly:

 

As you can see 25% of Curtis's runners take the early lead, while another nigh on 50% race prominently and close to the pace. Ms Curtis is a trainer who understands the importance of forward run styles. It should come as no surprise therefore that you would have made a profit backing all of her runners ‘blind’ during this time frame. For the record, 53 of Curtis's runners were held up, and only 4 won (SR 7.55%). Compare this to 23% and 21.83% win strike rates for her early leaders and prominent racers.

Let us now review Alan King’s pace pie chart as a comparison to Curtis.

 

His pace average stands at 1.99 with a measly 2% of his runners sent into an early lead. Overall losses for King have been significant especially with runners that raced mid division or near the back early.

*

I do believe that pace in a race is something which must be factored in to your betting. Pace biases vary from race type to race type, distance to distance, course to course, etc. However, if you are prepared to do some digging that other punters are not, you will give yourself a significant edge over the crowd.

This article has hopefully offered a good chunk of information to digest, but in reality I have barely scratched the surface. If you really want to profit from run style/pace then the Geegeez tools are there for you to test your own ideas and crunch pace data to your heart’s content.

- DR

Monday Musings: Gordon’s Cunning Plan?

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Six months is a long time in politics, writes Tony Stafford: ask all the Tory ministers who either got sacked, demoted, moved sideways or occasionally up in the latest reshuffle. It’s a long time in the Covid19 story too, ask John Gosden’s mate, former Health Minister Matt Hancock, but it seems it is but a blink of an eye in Irish horseracing.

Gordon Elliott and Charles Byrnes came back from their independent six-month bans for breaches of Rules and in the former case basic decency. Each within days has shown that nothing has changed in their absence.
Immediately after THAT picture of him sitting on a dead horse on his gallops, Elliott was briefly the most hated man who had anything to do with caring for animals. Never mind that all his friends and co-workers insisted he was a true animal-lover, as well he may be and probably is.

But the six months’ absence, conveniently salved by the fact that another local trainer, the little-known Denise Foster, was allowed to be shoe-horned in and keep the show on the road, has been probably a nice summer break for the man.

Denise did her required task to the tune of 30 jumps wins from 275 runners at around an 11% strike-rate. In the latest two-week analysis whereby Racing Post statistics convey whether trainers are hot, cold or lukewarm, she had five runners, all on the Flat, each starting at least 14/1 and with two places before being shown the door – I trust with a nice bouquet of flowers for her trouble.

Elliott, whose last ban-shortened jumps tally was 155 wins from 1,003 thus 15%, started back in the middle of the week before last and already has six wins on the board from 21 jump representatives, at a rate of 29%.

What occurred to my suspicious mind is that the recruitment of Mrs Foster offered a real opportunity for Gordon. Once it became clear that he would be coming back, if not to all the owners – some like Cheveley Park Stud with Cheltenham on the horizon were swept away in all the emotion and opprobrium that descended on the trainer - he could plan for the future.

His biggest supporter, Gigginstown House Stud of the O’Leary brothers, stayed firm, albeit with the well-chronicled promised reductions in the size of their operation beginning to take effect – more than 40 of their horses were in the recent Doncaster sale.

One oddity has already suggested more than a minor reduction. None of the 21 initial Elliott horses wore the maroon livery of Gigginstown – maybe the easing in the holiday Covid regulations will cheer up the always-combative boss of Ryanair?

Having another name on the licence even if Gordie was allowed to keep his nose on the place, was an invitation to get a few horses down the handicap, not that I’m suggesting Denise was breaking any rules. But it’s simple enough to run horses over the wrong trip, on unsuitable ground or even when they are either unfit or out of sorts. The excuses are well-enough noted in the trainers’ lexicon. Expect a constant flood of winners from this undeniably talented trainer.

While Elliott did have some restrictions, the six-month ban on Charles Byrnes, long known as the shrewdest of Irish shrewd trainers, was a ban pretty much only in name.

Even the initial and name on the licence after his misdemeanour was unchanged with Cathal Byrnes holding the fort. Charles was allowed to go into the yard and even take the horses around the parade ring before their races.

Since regaining his credentials Byrnes has had the grand total of two runners, one unplaced jumper and one on the Flat.

UK trainers quite rightly have been moaning for ages about the favourable treatment of Irish horses in our valuable handicaps and I have been right up there in pleading their case. What happened at Cheltenham was a joke and belatedly Dominic Gardner-Hill, head of handicapping has promised a review.

Saturday’s Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket – the winners of which never seem to get anywhere near in the main event the following month – still carried a highly-desirable £20k first prize. Byrnes selected the race for his 79-rated seven-year-old Turnpike Trip who on his last run for Cathal Byrnes had been a close second in a race over a similar trip but worth only €6k at Down Royal.

Back in the Charles Byrnes fold, virtually untouched for a good run and with the incentive of a valuable winner’s prize and some ordinary opposition, here was an opportunity for Clever Charlie to fill his boots.

As the Racing Post joyfully crowed, the gamble was landed by two lengths from Live Your Dream, trying in vain to concede an improbable 22lb to the invader over the marathon trip. The other seven were eight lengths and more behind.

The last time Charles bothered to bring Turnpike Trip across to the UK, he ran in a handicap hurdle at Ascot at the Christmas meeting in 2019, three months after winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Tipperary and three weeks after he ran the brilliant Envoi Allen to eight lengths off  levels in a Grade 1.

Starting only 6/1 from a mark of 146 he finished fourth to Hughie Morrison’s smart dual-purpose horse Not So Sleepy, who at the time was rated 16lb Turnpike Trip’s inferior. The Irish horse was 14 lengths behind the winner, but that horse, who was fifth to Honeysuckle in this year’s Champion Hurdle, is now rated 153 hurdles and 99 on the Flat. All Byrnes had to do once the mark was fixed – and with no sense that maybe he was a blot of Burning Victory proportions at Deauville the other week – he just had to wait for the right valuable race. Job done!

And here was a horse running off 79. Help yourself - Charlie and his pals did.

The new system once it comes into force needs addressing at many levels, not least the ease with which low-grade or rather lowly-rated Irish horses can come and pick off as they like 0-55 races over here.

Handicapping and its potential for unfairness has long been an issue for Hughie Morrison and as he watched his nice three-year-old King Of Clubs toil home behind the placed horses at Newbury on Saturday he must have been screaming with rage.

King Of Clubs has won twice in handicaps, the second off a mark of 86 at Sandown when he finished well and got up on the line to win by a nose. Now there are trainers who would be shocked if such a win entailed more than a 2lb or 3lb extra impost but King Of Clubs got 5lb!
Then when the latest ratings came out on Tuesday, that most hated of concepts in the Revised Handicap ratings feature – collateral form – was brought to bear.

Here horses standing in the box on Tuesday morning can be given more weight because of something a close rival has done since his own last performance. In this case Sandown runner-up Victory Chime won next time at Chester, albeit only by three-quarters of a length, but the BHA handicapper added another 2lb to King Of Clubs’ mark.

Now raised 7lb for a nose, Hughie must have feared the worst for his 93-rated three-year-old. By that single action King Of Clubs can no longer run in 0-90 handicaps whereas without the extra 2lb he still could have.

Faced with horses of a different calibre and with far more experience he predictably found it all too much. Not only is the horse being forced into too strong company too early in his career, with the potential for halting his progress, his owners are now much more likely to succumb to offers to buy him from abroad. These are the sort of horses that should be encouraged to race in this country.

Elsewhere Charlie Appleby continued his world-wide sweep of the big races with two Saturday major pay-days in North America.

Recruiting an available Frankie Dettori for the Canadian International at Woodbine racecourse, Toronto, he collected £206,000 for Godolphin when hard-knocking Walton Street wiped away the opposition by more than five lengths.

Desert Encounter, trained by David Simcock to win the two previous editions in 2018 and 2019, had to be content with second on Saturday.

Then in New York, Yibir, winner last time of the Great Voltigeur at York but side-stepping the St Leger, was found a choice alternative in the Jockey Club Invitational for three-year-olds. Third favourite behind Bolshoi Ballet, already a winner at Belmont in the summer, Yibir came from last to first under guest rider Jamie Spencer, collecting £390,000 for the Appleby yard. That made it an (in the words of Lou Reed) Oh what a perfect day in North America coming home with almost £600,000! For the record Bolshoi Ballet, the favourite, was fourth.

Finally I have to mention my friend Jamie Reid’s (same sound, different spelling!) authorised biography of Victor Chandler which takes us to Longchamp 2007 and his (and three associates’) arrest for unlawful bookmaking at the Arc meeting. I was around in those days and have read this last chapter. Reid is a wonderful writer and was also very close to the subject for the period the book covers, I can’t wait to read the rest of it.

* Victor Chandler, Put Your Life On it. Reach Sport £20.

Ayr Gold Cup Draw and Pace Bias Plus Western Meeting Pointers

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A different format last week but thankfully I still managed to flag up the chances of Hurricane Ivor who won the Portland. This weekend’s big meeting is of course taking place at Ayr. It’s the final day of the Western Meeting and the big races of the day are the Ayr Silver Cup and the Ayr Gold Cup.

I’ll delve into potential draw and pace biases in this race shortly but it’s worth noting that the draw bias does definitely change from year to year in this so the best clue of all is likely to come in the Bronze Cup which will be run 24 hours earlier than these two races. Middle to low looked the place to be on Bronze Cup day.

That’s all the future though, on to what’s happened in the past.

Ayr Gold Cup Draw Bias

This data can be applied to any big field sprint at Ayr, including the Bronze Cup and Silver Cup.

This race can be run on extremely soft ground but it’s normally run on ground that is good to soft or better so it should pay to concentrate on this data.

Historically it has paid to be lower rather than higher. More than half the winners in this sample have come from the lowest third of the stall whilst high has performed better than middle, an indication that you probably want to be drawn one side or the other and not marooned in the middle.

The place percentages are better for low as well with a place percentage of 23.53% for those drawn on the far side of the course. This time around middle performs better than high for place percentage although there isn’t much in it and low is the clear winner again.

All metrics are useful when examining draw biases but in terms of purely finding out if there is an advantage one way or another PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is often the top dog as every runner is contributing to the data sample. The PRB figures for this course and distance are 0.53 for low, 0.51 for middle and 0.46 for high. Again this points towards lower the better.

No draw analysis would be complete without looking at the individual stall data as it’s often not just a case of low v middle v high. There are usually some micro biases and cut off points within the overall draw.

The individual stall PRBs aren’t overly conclusive. The two best readings come from the two highest stalls suggesting a very high draw is an advantage although no other stall, 20 or higher, appears in the top fourteen places.

It’s easy to see why the data favours lower drawn runners. Stalls 2 to 10 inclusive all appear in the top thirteen places meaning nine of the top thirteen stalls are 2 to 10.

Stalls 14 to 25 inclusive all appear in the bottom fourteen stalls as far as PRB is concerned. That’s a sequence of 12 stalls all performing badly, much worse than stalls 2 to 10. This all appears to suggest low is the place to be in this race.

So we definitely want to be drawn low and high numbers have no chance, is that right?

Absolutely not!

In 2020, on good to soft ground the finishing positions of the first 5 home in the Bronze Cup were 21, 22, 4, 14, 24 so higher draws certainly can’t be ruled out. It does seem that low is favoured more often than not though.

Ayr Gold Cup Pace Bias

Big fields can bring about the best in hold up types but do these big Ayr sprints suit the patiently ridden or the prominently ridden?

Despite the straight track and cavalry charge style race the pace tends to hold up remarkably well here. Prominent and mid division produce more winners but from far more runners. In terms of win percentages (9.09%) and place percentages (29.55%) front runners do best of all here. Prominent is next best on the place percentage leader board, followed by mid division, with held up the worst run style for seeing horses to best effect here. When you see a sliding scale like this it’s a pretty sure sign of a pace bias.

One stat that stands out is that backing front runners blind each way in these races gives you a level stakes profit of 17.11 whilst the same strategy for hold up performers yields a 110.71 loss!

Ayr Gold Cup Draw and Pace Combination

I make no secret about my love for the draw and pace combination heat maps on Geegeez Gold and we’re going to see an insightful heat map here.

It’s quite telling that those drawn high seemingly need to be ridden aggressively to be seen to best effect. The best draw and pace combination is leading from a high draw and it produces an amazing PRB of 0.73. Being prominently ridden from high draws also sees horses to good effect but the more patiently ridden you are from a high draw, the more you are likely to struggle.

If drawn low, prominent seems best of all, with low or middle draws seeming quite crucial for those that are going to be held up. If drawn in the middle it seems mid division isn’t the place to be. This often seems to be the case with these heat maps and is probably because horses racing in mid division in big fields from middle draws seem the most likely to experience traffic problems (at least those that are held up can switch wide, those in mid division will be surrounded by other runners and are forced to wait for the gaps to appear).

Ayr Gold Cup 2021 Pace Map

All this talk of pace is irrelevant unless we look at the pace maps for these races. Even if the course tends to lend itself to front runners, an excess of early leaders can cause a pace collapse handing the advantage to those that like to come from behind.

Two things stand out with regards to this pace map. For such a big field there isn’t a whole lot of pace. Just Frank likes to lead, as does Mr Wagyu whilst Brad The Brief tends to only track the leaders.

Second of all, the pace is in the middle of the course. Both of these facts seem bad news for hot favourite Great Ambassador who isn’t going to have a really strong pace to aim at and he isn’t going to have a whole lot to take him into the race either unless he’s switched towards the centre early on.

This probably isn’t going to be the ideal scenario for hold up performers or those that stay a little further. This should be a relative speed test and with the course favouring pace anyway I’d be pretty keen to side with something that races prominently at least. I’ll share some thoughts on some form contenders further down this article.

Ayr Silver Cup 2021 Pace Map

Will we see more pace on offer in this contest?

Possibly a couple more pace options in this one but at the same time the Gold Cup has two real trailblazers, there may be none in this field!

Bergerac tends to lead but he was only ridden prominently last time. Likewise Soldier’s Minute can lead but he often only chases the leaders too. Similar comments apply to Mid Winster and Air Raid. Bergerac seems the most reliable pace option and maybe a couple of other jockeys will take the initiative and go forward to give their mounts the best chance possible.

Unlike the Gold Cup there is a better spread of pace. Bergerac will give the lower numbers a decent tow, Mid Winster should lead the middle pack and the higher numbers will probably follow Air Raid. If the lower drawn runners track over towards the middle we should see a lot more pace there than on the near side rail.

I’d be keen again to support something that will be ridden near the pace in this as I’m not convinced there is going to be enough pace to allow too many to get into this, especially not the most patiently ridden runners.

Ayr Western Meeting Top Trainers

This is a big meeting, Ayr’s biggest, so it’s interesting to investigate which trainers seem to target this meeting.

Given the smaller sample for looking at just September results at Ayr it makes sense to concentrate more on the each way data than the win data. This table is sorted by Each Way %, showing how often these trainers are hitting the frame, and those figures should be cross referenced with the EW PL to see if they are meeting market expectations.

There are some real stand out trainers in this list. The record of Bryan Smart certainly shouldn’t go unnoticed but in terms of trainers who are doing really well with some serious volume the likes of Tim Easterby, Mick Channon and Keith Dalgleish are all trainers to take very seriously with their runners at the Western Meeting here at Ayr.

Thoughts For This Weekend

With this information the immediate thought is ‘how can we profit from it this weekend?’ and I’ll now share my thoughts on some runners who, at the very least, should be able to outperform market expectations.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview

There is rain around for most of Friday but it doesn’t look likely to amount to a great deal and probably just saves them watering the course.

On the assumption of relatively fast ground I most certainly want to be with something that is going to be front rank, something that prefers fast ground and something that is in good form. A low to middle draw also seems an advantage both historically and based on the races that took place on Friday. One runner that fits that category, and pretty much the only runner that does so, is Mr Wagyu. He's had a ridiculously good season, winning five races including the Stewards’ Cup consolation race.

He’s gone up in the weights since that last victory, and has been well enough beaten twice, but with excuses. The first of those defeats came at Ripon, a course where he was beaten 18 lengths, 10 lengths and 8 lengths on his last three tries there. Then last time out in the Portland Handicap he ran really well to finish 6th, finding the extended 5f too sharp on that occasion. It’s certainly true that the handicapper has made life far more difficult for him now but this seems the perfect setup for him. At around 20/1, with up to 7 places on offer at the time of writing, I’d be pretty interested in him, for all a place will be more likely than the win.

Just Frank has shown he is fairly versatile in regards to the ground this season and maybe connections have finally found the key to him at this distance with cheekpieces on. I think he is capable of running well but he’s around half the price of Mr Wagyu and his chance would almost certainly be helped by rain so if the going is good or better I’d prefer My Wagyu. Stall 18 is also a bit higher than ideal by the looks of things.

The majority of the others I like in this race are hold up performers and I think the value is definitely going to lie with those nearer the pace.

Ayr Silver Cup Preview

This takes place just over an hour before the Gold Cup so in terms of draw advantage we are relying on Friday’s racing and historical evidence.

Again, I am very keen to side with something that races pretty close to the pace in this. From a form perspective those nearer the head of the betting all seem to have very good chances and the majority of those market fancies are likely to be ridden fairly prominently. Much might depend on how the ground turns out.

Blackrod will appreciate the step back up to 6f and he’s progressing well. He’s run in some top 3yo sprints this season and has been ridden prominently on his last two starts. His best form is on faster ground and he’s drawn in 10 which seems pretty much perfect. The key thing to note here is he runs off the same mark as when winning over an inadequate trip last time out because that was an apprentice race and this is an early closing race.

Magical Spirit won this last year and has slowly returned to form this season. He should race prominently but he seems best on something resembling good to soft ground. Assuming the ground is faster I’m happy to leave him alone. He’s drawn in stall 4.

Royal Scimitar is a horse I have been following this season. He was only half a length behind Blackrod in July, when drawn on the wrong side of the track, and he is 2lbs better off this time around. He should race fairly handily but the unknown is the first time blinkers. If they have a positive effect he will probably win this, if they don’t he might well finish unplaced. He’s drawn in stall 9, right next to Blackrod, and probably appeals more as a win only bet than an each way if the ground stays fast.

Bergerac is another runner that I’ve personally been following and he’s been really consistent all season. He was runner up at Doncaster on softer ground on his penultimate start, behind a subsequent winner (the third and fourth have finished runner up and third since so good form) and he followed that up with a win at York on faster ground. He’ll likely try to make all from stall 5 which should see him to good effect. Unfortunately he’s 3lbs wrong under a penalty. Assuming there isn't lots of rain he should still run very well and is expected to be amongst the places.

None of those runners are going to make anyone rich so here are two horses at bigger prices that might be interesting, but both are drawn high which looked a negative on Friday. Total Commitment at 16/1 looks overpriced on his Stewards’ Cup 4th. He can lead or race prominently and whilst that effort came on soft ground, he has also won on fast ground. I’d be slightly more interested if the rain came for him as it would inconvenience a few of those fancied horses above that want the rain to stay away.

The other big priced one of interest is Lord Rapscallion. He’s drawn in 23, one stall lower than Total Commitment, and he’s been running in top handicaps all season (4th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 3rd in the Bunbury Cup). He didn’t look to stay a mile last time and he’s interesting based on his only 6f run on turf this season when runner up to Chil Chil (easy winner but now rated 14lbs higher) and in front of Great Ambassador, the ante post favourite for the Gold Cup. He’ll race handily and he handles fast and soft ground, just like Total Commitment. Unless high draws do well in the Silver Cup this pair seems best left alone though.

Assuming fastish ground I think Blackrod and Bergerac are near certainties to be in the frame at the least. If they were to compete on current ratings Blackrod would be 8lbs worse off with Bergerac than these terms which suggests Blackrod should be the pick of the two. Royal Scimitar is risky with the blinkers on but if he takes to them he should beat both Blackrod and Bergerac.

Another Race Of Interest

In May, in this column, I put forward a good case for Redarna at a big price in a Haydock handicap. He ran a blinder that day to finish a close 4th and that race worked out well with the 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th all winning shortly after and the 2nd, 5th and 9th all going close on their next starts. That race was run on heavy ground and in that preview I stated that Redarna would be almost unbeatable off his current mark on easy ground at Ayr.

I made that statement knowing the horse had form figures of 1111241, with that 4th coming at 10f (all other races in that sequence had come at 7f). As it turned out Redarna’s next run came at Ayr but I swerved him that day because of fast ground – his only previous win on fast ground had come off a 21lb lower mark. Unfortunately for me he added another 1 to his course form figures at a fair enough price of 9/2. That was only a five runner race but the runner up has gone close on two occasions since so it’s not bad form.

Redarna is a good horse in cheekpieces at 7f or a mile when racing on good or softer ground. His form figures in this scenario read 12117215014. Interestingly the 5 and the 0 came on his two runs at Thirsk so it seems he doesn’t get on with that course.

Given cut in the ground or Ayr, he tends to run very, very well. At Ayr with cut in the ground he’s pretty much unbeatable (in the right company off this sort of mark). He proved he can win off this sort of mark on fast ground at Ayr in July and two defeats elsewhere on fast ground aren’t of great concern. He’s just 1lb higher than his last win and 1lb higher than that hot form at Haydock in May. On fast ground on Saturday he’ll rate a fair bet, on good or even softer he’d be a stronger bet. He runs in the 4.50.

Other Hot Form To Note

Hot form, that is races that are throwing up subsequent winners or runners that are getting much closer to winning next time out, is my main consideration when finding a bet. There is some hot form on offer in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap (3.25) at Newbury on Saturday.

This race looks set to be dominated by the classic generation with several of the well fancied 3yos yet to fully show their hand, which makes backing those horses, or opposing them, a bit risky. However King Of Clubs surely has to be a very solid selection in the race.

His run at Newmarket at the July Meeting was really hot form. The winner won a French Group 2 next time out and is now rated 21lbs higher, the runner up won a Group 3 on his next run and is now rated 9lbs higher. It was no surprise therefore that King Of Clubs won at Sandown on his next start and the 4th also went in at Goodwood on his next run.

King Of Clubs only won by a nose at Sandown so I didn’t expect him to go up by much, even if he was much better than the bare result (not many got into it from behind). However the handicapper put him up 7lbs for that, presumably as much to catch up on the hot form at Newmarket as to ‘punish’ him for the Sandown win.

It’s reassuring though that the runner up in that Sandown race, Victory Chime, came out and won at Chester a week ago off a 4lb higher mark, once again franking the form of King Of Clubs. He’d rate a decent enough each way choice on Saturday even if there are likely to be a few in this race that are better than their current marks.

Introducing “Bet Finder”

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As longer term readers/subscribers will know, we're constantly investing in improving geegeez.co.uk and, in particular, the toolkit that is Geegeez Gold. In the past year and a half, we've added a new metric (Percentage of Rivals Beaten), the Profiler tab in the cards, a more mobile friendly version of the entire site, new reports for 1st time headgear and sectional fast finishers, and a whole host of smaller changes.

Many of those changes were perhaps geared towards more dedicated or experienced bettors; mindful of that, we wanted to do something that would have broader appeal and, arguably, would be more accessible to our army of casual/time-pressed players. And so, I'd like to introduce you to Bet Finder, the sixth tool in the Geegeez Gold kit bag, and free to all registered users for the remainder of September.

To help you get up and running straight away, there is a video below where I put Bet Finder through its paces and, after that, some words and pictures about the new tool for those who prefer to read than to listen.

What exactly is Bet Finder?

Bet Finder is a tool that allows the quick filtering of the hundreds of horses entered each day down to a handful of interest to you. It is literally push button easy to use.

Consisting of two tabs - Filters and Qualifiers - we begin on the Filters view, which looks like this:

 

Above is the 'fully open' view, and users can hide or show all sections with the '+' and '-' buttons top left:

 

 

Clicking on any blue header block will open that specific section. Here I've opened the 'Basic Filters' section:

 

There are buttons top right for 'Today' and 'Tomorrow', and to 'Reset' the filters.

[Note that when looking at the 'Tomorrow' data, some ratings do not get published until the evening.]

 

Selecting a filter will highlight it and reduce the value in brackets  on the Qualifiers tab button - the number of qualifying horses satisfying the selected criteria.

 

In the example above, I've selected 'Beaten Favourite last time out' and 'Up in Class'. The Qualifiers tab tells me there are three horses matching those criteria.

Clicking the 'Qualifiers' button displays them:

 

The qualifier table can be sorted by any of the column headings, and clicking on the race time will take you to the race in question for further analysis if you're that way inclined.

There is a green 'CSV' button top right in the 'Qualifiers' view from which users may download the filtered list of qualifiers.

Beneath the Bet Finder tool itself is an explanation of what the filters are. Here, for example, are the explainers for 'Advanced Trainer Form Positive':

 

Where can I find the Bet Finder tool?

Bet Finder can be found from the Tools page here, or from the Tools menu anywhere on site.

 

Do I have access to Bet Finder?

If you want it, yes! From now until the end of September, Bet Finder is free to all registered users. From October onwards, it will move into the premium Geegeez Gold service.

If you're not already a registered subscriber, you can register here. If you are, and/or you're a Gold subscriber, just make sure you're logged in and go to the Bet Finder page.

 

I very much hope you'll find this new tool useful, and if you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do share them in the 'replies' space below.

And if you're enjoying some success with a particular combination of filters and are happy to share, please do!

Thanks, and Good Luck!

Matt

Monday Musings: Very Few Racing Certainties

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As a certain young tennis player showed the world last week, nothing is guaranteed in sport, writes Tony Stafford. Certainly, when Aidan O’Brien assembled the cavalry for their dual skirmishes around the Curragh and on the manicured lawns of Longchamp last weekend, he and the Coolmore owners were expecting more than a single winner.

Okay, so St Mark’s Basilica, forced out of York but now refreshed for the task in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday, did see off the dual threat of top older mare Tarnawa and fellow multiple Group 1-winning three-year-old Poetic Flare, but that is pretty much where it ended.

True, Mother Earth should have won the Matron Stakes on the same day bar being pressed against the rail by 25-1 winner No Speak Alexander, whose rider forced Ryan Moore to ease her close home when short of room. It was only the intervention of second-placed Pearls Galore that prevented the 1,000 Guineas and Prix Rothschild winner from collecting a third Group 1 in the stewards’ room.

Luck in general was hardly on their side over the weekend. Innisfree, one of their best-backed horses at Leopardstown, was poised to collect in the Group 3 when going wrong and having to be pulled up by the same luckless pilot.

But when sending seven individual winners of Group 1 races during the current season for such an important two days’ racing not just in Ireland (Champions Weekend), but also in France (Arc Trials Day) and UK (Saturday’s St Leger), one may be forgiven for expecting at least a few of them to win.

The biggest shock of course was the ending of the explosive victory roll throughout the year of Snowfall, from unconsidered winner of the Musidora in May, through the record-making 18-length romp in the Oaks, nine-length demolition in the Irish version, and latterly a more measured four in York.

Cynics said divide it again and make it two but rather than a multiplying factor, it was the linear reduction that applied. Go from nine to four, take off another five, and you get a first defeat. Teona, third at York and a 28-length disappointment in tenth at Epsom, opted out of the Curragh and a return to the Knavesmire, instead restoring her reputation in a Windsor Listed race. Roger Varian had her primed and the resulting one and a half length (that’s the linear version working to a nicety!) put the 1-5 shot in her place.

The tell-tale stat, as if we needed to illustrate further the law of diminishing Snowfall returns, was the location of La Joconde, a daughter of Frankel and part of the regular team of maids of honour attending the queen on her perambulations around Europe.

La Joconde, a 40-1 shot at Epsom, was 11th of 14 there, beaten 34 lengths. At the Curragh, having first stopped off at Roscommon to break her maiden, she was again 40/1 when sixth, beaten 20 lengths, and the gulf contracted to just under seven lengths at York. Yesterday La Joconde, 44-1 under Hollie Doyle, was only half a length behind her principal in third, so some nice black type for her – well, they needed something on which to reflect favourably!

The Frankie Dettori magic on O’Brien horses – often getting on the Ryan Moore discards – didn’t extend to Doncaster on Saturday, either. With the stable number one in Ireland, Frankie had his first experience of riding one-time Derby favourite High Definition in the St Leger but true to form this disappointing animal proved worst of the quartet from Ballydoyle beating only one home.

The Mediterranean (28/1) in third and Hollie Doyle-ridden Interpretation (shortest of the quartet at 8-1) in fourth did as well as could be expected as Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane continued his upward climb for William Buick and Charlie Appleby. Mojo Star, second in the Derby to Adayar and unlucky-in-running in Ireland, ran a big race again but was no match for the winner who is right up there at the top of the tree.

High Definition had been favourite for all three earlier starts, but now the plug had been properly pulled and he was relatively friendless at 14’s. In all honesty he should have been double those odds but highly-held reputations earned on the Ballydoyle gallops are not easily relinquished, especially among the bookmakers.

Reappearing at York in May after an interrupted preparation he was a rusty third behind Hurricane Lane in the Dante. Yet there he was next time at the Curragh, again favourite, this time for the Irish Derby, and you could hardly have imagined a less enthusiastic performance: always loitering at the back while Hurricane Lane was again doing their untroubled business while others, notably Mojo Star, were getting hung up in traffic.

The final straw ought to have been the Great Voltigeur back at York, the traditional St Leger trial, when again unbelievably favourite, he mooched into sixth of eight. He was a decent enough juvenile but the glitter has evaporated on the track in his Classic year. It happens to the best of trainers and even Aidan.

Talking of final straws, Hughie Morrison, spitting blood when Sonnyboyliston edged out his rallying Quickthorn for first prize in the Ebor, citing how well handicapped Johnny Murtagh’s horse had been, now has chapter and verse on his side as Murtagh’s stayer collected yesterday’s Irish St Leger. Rated 113, he got the better of 117-rated Twilight Payment to earn the greater part of €300k more to swell his month’s earnings to half a million, Raducanu proportions almost!

Quickthorn beat the 2020 St Leger runner-up Berkshire Rocco, conceding him weight in a conditions race at Salisbury last week, proving much too good despite losing 20 lengths at the start. No doubt he’ll be giving weight to Murtagh’s horse next time!

Appleby and Buick again had the wood on O’Brien and Moore at the Curragh yesterday in the National Stakes when Native Trail saw off Point Lonsdale in a clash of two unbeaten colts. Both had gone through the ring at Tattersalls: Point Lonsdale, by Australia, at the yearling sales when a 575,000gns purchase by MV Magnier. His four wins in a row – a maiden, Listed, Group 3 and Group 2, all with comfort – explained the 8/13 starting price.

But Native Trail, a 210,000gns acquisition from the Craven Breeze-ups this year, had won two, with a narrow success in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at the July meeting at his home course, suggesting better to come. So it proved, Native Trail overturning the favourite after a short, sharp tussle. He must have moved right to the top of the two-year-old rankings after that.

Hard as the high-profile defeats had been, it must have been even more disappointing that Love and Broome, back in Group 2 company having both added in numerical terms to their top-level success – Love’s Ascot victory had been a little palled by two subsequent third places, admittedly in the King George and Juddmonte – could not convert the lower-level opportunities.

Broome had won the Group 1 Prix de Saint-Cloud but a return to France for his Arc Trial in the Prix Foy proved a disappointment as the Japanese Deep Bond made all in this full dress rehearsal for four-year-olds and up. Anyone fancying a bet on the big race next month would be well served placing a bet on course on the PMU as the hordes of supporters of the Japanese horses always distort even markets on world pool races.

Love’s defeat came from an unlikely source. When my friend Nicolas Clement bought a filly by Derby-winning Galileo stallion Ruler Of The World for Jonathan Barnett he paid the princely sum of €21,000 (his budget was €40k!). Clement has been adamant all along that she is the most promising of his fillies for next year and expects her to make a debut late next month. His reasoning was that Ruler Of The World is a vastly underrated sire.

As the result of yesterday’s Group 2 Blandford Stakes is digested it will show that La Petite Coco was winning for the fourth time in five starts for Paddy Twomey. She got up in the last stride to deny Love, with the third horse three lengths away. Already rated 110, La Petite Coco looks one to follow.

She has been the joint most productive filly by her sire in Ireland, from only a small representation, as he is based in France. Pineapple Express, trained and ridden by father and son Andrew Slattery (x2), was beaten a neck in the 23-runner finale handicap there yesterday. That made in four wins and three seconds in ten 2021 outings for her. I can’t wait to see Jonathan’s filly on the track.

**

In other news, it will hopefully be off to Yarmouth this week, either Wednesday or Thursday, for the three-year-old Dusky Lord, in whom Barnett is a partner along with Theona’s trainer, Roger Varian. I expect Roger to be in a decent mood when I speak to him before the race.

One very sad note was the death of Andy Stewart, owner of Big Buck’s and so many great jumpers, starting with Cenkos, over the past three decades. I knew him from even before he set up the company of that name with which he made his fortune.

We first met when he worked with investment bankers Singer & Friedlander, sponsors of a big chase every year at Uttoxeter. He liked to talk about his team of greyhounds at Hove stadium, with little thought of moving up into horses. That he did and with Paul Nicholls too was a joy for so many, especially the way in which he embraced horse racing and how graciously he treated everyone he met.

  • TS

Doncaster Racecourse Pointers: Draw Bias, Pace Bias, Top Trainers and Top Jockeys

/in , /by

I’m going to be changing the format of these ‘previews’ going forward, hopefully for the better. I’ll be doing a little less research on individual races each week and concentrating more on data and angles that can be useful for more than just one race a week.

If you have any feedback on the newer format, or any extra angles you'd like to be included, feel free to drop a reply below.

Doncaster is the feature meeting on Saturday with the highlight being the St Leger. I’m a bit more partial to some of the quality handicaps on offer there though, notably the Portland Handicap which is run over 5.5f.

Portland Handicap Draw Bias

On the subject of the Portland Handicap, is it best to be drawn low, middle or high?

In big field sprints (5f to 6f) on ground that ranges from good to firm to good to soft it appears there is a slight disadvantage being drawn on either of the flanks, whilst the very centre seems to underperform slightly too.

The line graph above shows the PRB3 data (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten) spread across the track and is a great representation of where you might want to, and not want to be drawn. The main takeaway is that being drawn in the bottom five stalls is probably lower than ideal with the highest three stalls also seemingly the place not to be.

The draw and pace combination heat map is a great tool for showcasing any potential draw and pace combination biases. It looks as though leading from the middle is very effective, despite needing to dominate a large field, but the very best combination is racing in mid division from the centre third of the draw. You would think that there was a fair chance of not getting a clear run given that combination as there will likely be horses either side but whilst that will always be a possibility, it’s clearly not been a barrier to success with runners perhaps spreading out enough to allow clear runs through.

If drawn low, being held up is ideal but there is very little in the PRB figures for each run style with low draws. From the higher draws mid division does worst of all with almost nothing between the other run styles.

Overall this looks a very fair course and distance and it would be a bad idea to rule anything out completely based on draw or pace biases but it seems that the very low and very high draws do struggle a little whilst early leaders, or those that race in mid division, from middle draws should perhaps be marked up a little.

Both graphs are available in the draw analyser tool and also on the racecard draw tabs for each race.

Doncaster Pace Bias

A few major handicaps aside, you don’t tend to get too many huge field races at Doncaster meaning the draw can have less of an effect in many cases. Without draw biases it can be a bit more difficult to narrow fields down or find runners that may have an edge due to course biases.

It’s still worth being aware of any potential pace biases the course can throw up.

It’s not always wise to lump such a wide range of distances in together as pace biases can vary plenty depending on the distance of the race but it seems that the data is pretty similar at trips of a mile or further in mid sized fields run on good to soft or better ground.

In general this looks a very fair track in terms of pace as hold up horses are not at a disadvantage. Generally in racing it is an advantage to be nearer the pace and many courses can give an extra advantage to front runners but that is not the case at Doncaster. In fact it is the worst run style statistically for most of the distances involved in this sample.

A course not favouring front runners doesn’t necessarily mean you should only back hold up performers. That run style does marginally have the best place percentage here across all of these distances combined but prominent racers do almost as well. As with all races, the individual pace maps should always be considered and if there is likely to be a pace collapse than those that are patiently ridden will normally benefit whilst a lack of early pace will often suit those ridden nearer the pace.

As an example, there is a lot of early pace in the Portland Handicap this year, as you’d probably expect for a big field sprint. No fewer than eight of these runners have made the running on at least one of their last two outings.

With a possible burn up likely those ridden in the rear half of the field could be advantaged. We already know that it’s a bit of a disadvantage to be drawn very low or very high meaning those in the blue box on the pace map above could be in the sweet spot and are likely to be seen to best effect. It would be no surprise at all if the winner was to come from one of those runners and some quick form study should be able to narrow it down further. If you wanted to be kind you could add Hurricane Ivor into the mix – he’s drawn a little lower than ideal but has run well in several races this season that have worked out to be ‘hot form’.

At the other end of the pace scale there is the Park Stakes.

Here we have just one front runner so the progressive Danyah could get an easy time of things up front. Whilst front runners might not do as well in slightly bigger fields over longer distances here, the best place to be on good or faster ground in this field size over 7f here is on the lead. Front runners have the best win percentage (19.19%) and the best place percentage (36.6%).

Top Doncaster Trainers

If you’re looking for the best trainers at Doncaster racecourse here are the top Doncaster trainers who have had five or more winners in the past five years, sorted by IV (Impact Value). So we are seeing how often they win at this course relative to their counterparts.

Near the very top is John and Thady Gosden, who will have plenty of runners at the major meetings at Doncaster. They’ve enjoyed a very good 2021 as the metrics outperform the previous record for John Gosden before he was joined on his license by son Thady.

Owen Burrows is also amongst the top trainers here and it’s worth noting that his runner on Saturday is Danyah, previously noted as being the likely recipient of an easy lead in the Park Stakes.

Some other trainers to note, who are profitable across all metrics, include Andrew Balding, Ian Williams and James Fanshawe so pay particular attention to any entries at Doncaster, for all meetings, from those stables.

At the very top of the tree though is David Elsworth who has an IV of 3.38, followed by Martyn Meade with an IV of 3.04. Meade is also profitable across all metrics.

Top Doncaster Jockeys

Sometimes it can pay to look at A/E (Actual v Expected) when trying to find the best jockeys at Doncaster as this metric takes into account the market and as we know, not all jockeys are afforded the same opportunities.

Ignoring A/E for just a second, the jockeys most likely to have winners here, with the top IV figures, are Frankie Dettori followed by Jane Elliott, Ryan Moore and Andrea Atzeni.

The name that stands out from that list is Jane Elliott and she is the jockey with the top A/E figure of 2.32. That puts her well clear of the next best jockey Rowan Scott who has an A/E of 1.57. For whatever reason she appears to ride this course extremely well. The fact that she doesn’t get as many opportunities though means she won’t be seen at this racecourse as often as many others.

David Egan and Andrew Mullen are no strangers to this course and they both have very respectable A/E figures and both are profitable to follow here. The much criticised Jamie Spencer also seems to get on pretty well with Doncaster, the long straight giving him plenty of time to get his rides into contention.

Hot Form at Doncaster

One runner I have already mentioned above is Hurricane Ivor. He’s drawn a little lower than ideal, but only by a couple of stalls, and he has some pretty hot form to his name.

In July Hurricane Ivor was 2nd over 5f at Ascot and although the winner has somewhat let the form down since, both his runs have come on ground that was faster than ideal. The 3rd has won since and the 4th has won twice since so it’s clearly a decent form line.

However an even better run potentially, off this mark and crucially over this seldom used distance of 5.5f came last time out at York.

Hurricane Ivor once again ran to Ascot form by beating Mondammej who won his next start after this. Mondammej reversed form with Jawwaal next time out but only just and Jawwaal was a fast finisher. The fact that they both ran very well again next time out in the same race gives this form good perspective.

The winner of this race, Copper Knight, only narrowly went down to Mondammej in that next race too whilst Live In The Moment was 2nd next time in a listed race despite the ground being too fast and not being favoured at the weights.

Another factor to note when weighing up hot form is run styles and course biases. The first two home in that York race above were both up with the pace the whole way whereas Hurricane Ivor was held up, and he didn’t get a clear run. He can be marked up from that performance and should have an excellent chance on a track where hold up performers do better, as long as the draw doesn’t catch him out.

It's worth noting that Copper Knight, Mondammej and Jawwaal all reoppose here too. The two to concentrate on at the weights are probably Hurricane Ivor and Jawwaal given Copper Knight and Mondammej have gone up in the handicap since. It's very interesting that Jawwaal has Doncaster form figures of 321011. He was below par in this last year though and whilst Hurricane Ivor is drawn a little lower than ideal in this year's Portland, it has to be said that Jawwaal is possibly drawn a little too high.

Monday Musings: Treatment of Trainers and Jockeys Chalk and Cheese

/in /by

On the fateful Saturday evening of July 17 this year, an apprentice seemingly with the world at his feet made a misjudgement for which he is still paying, writes Tony Stafford. Had he been able to maintain the income per month with rides and percentage of winners of the first half of the year he would have added around £7,500 to his earnings so well was he progressing. Instead, Mark Crehan was given a 28-day salutary suspension in the manner of the old Army traditions which historically governed the Jockey Club’s total domination of racing.

On that Saturday, having only his fifth ride for Sir Michael Stoute – three of the previous four had won – he thought he was passing the winning post in the lead on Aerion Power, when he was in fact just at the half-furlong pole.

Replicating the same mistake that many riders have made down the decades, he eased his mount and was immediately horrified when two of his rivals continued urging theirs and went past him. He rallied Aerion Power to good enough effect to claw back second place, but Connor Beasley riding Colony Queen had a neck to spare at the line.

That was 51 days ago, and it was precisely one day before that when he last rode a winner. He has yet to add to the 38 he had clocked up from 225 rides in the first half of the year. Since his ban ended his ten rides have been sprinkled with near misses, one for Sir Michael who showed his support in the best way possible, and George Boughey his boss with five.

It is not just the loss of earnings but the complete halt to his momentum that is so frustrating. The late John McCririck was always most vociferous in cases like Mark’s: “Ban them for life,” might have been his coda such was his one-eyed concern with the men in the betting shops and their small daily wagers.

It seems, though, that there are mistakes and mistakes and, depending on who is making them, the penalty can be way out of proportion. The same month as Crehan’s blunder, Jessica Harrington’s course representative allowed the three-year-old filly Aurora Princess rather than the two-year-old Alezarine to run in the 2yo maiden at the Galway Festival. She finished first, unsurprisingly, but the error was discovered and she was automatically disqualified, the race going to the favourite from the Aidan O’Brien stable who had crossed the line second.

Later Mrs Harrington said it was an “indefensible blunder” and got a ticking off and a €2,000 fine. Life goes on for the top people, Aurora Princess winning as herself at Clonmel the other day. Alizerine made her “real” debut early in August and was unplaced.

A more amazing error – one described by Aidan O’Brien as “a million-to-one chance” was the mix-up in caps for two of the trainer’s runners in Deryck Smith’s purple colours in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last autumn. Mother Earth, the subsequent 1,000 Guineas and Prix Rothschild heroine, ran as Snowfall, called over the line third in this Group 1 race, while Snowfall in eighth was identified throughout as Mother Earth.

Considering the pair has now won five Group 1 races between them and Epsom, Curragh and Yorkshire Oaks winner Snowfall heads betting on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a £4,000 fine was, with hindsight, hardly swingeing. I doubt the penalty troubled Aidan’s liquidity any more than Jessie’s two grand or even the bargain-basement £1k handed out to their similarly high-powered UK counterpart William Haggas this weekend.

A last fortnight tally of 15 winners from 50 runners with around £316,000 in first prizes alone is testament to his talent, power of stable and ability to find races all the way through his team. Winning Saturday’s September Stakes at Kempton with his father Brian‘s Hamish, brought back to fitness after a long absence for a tendon injury, was the emotional highlight of an eventful weekend, crowned by the fifth and finest success for the unbeaten Baeed in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp yesterday. Useful yardsticks Order Of Australia (Aidan) and Victor Ludorum (Fabre) followed this late challenger for Europe’s champion miler status over the line in Paris.

But over at Ascot on Saturday all was not well. There was a £38k handicap on the card and Haggas horses Chalk Stream and Candleford crossed the line in the first two places, Chalk Stream well ahead of his much longer-priced and apprentice-ridden stablemate. On weighing in, however, Candleford’s rider drew light and Haggas admitted that when saddling him he left the weight cloth on the head lad’s bucket and simply forgot about it.

So Candleford ran with a much lower weight than required and the trainer’s immediate worry was whether the BHA handicappers would take that into consideration especially as the £18k second prize was forfeit. Trainers receive a higher share of winning prizes than jockeys and William can expect more than £30k to go into his Weatherby’s account just for the last fortnight’s work.

There is absolutely no complaint intended about the trainer, apart from an unexpected lapse, just that the three examples I’ve listed are so blatantly lenient in comparison to the draconian treatment of Mark Crehan. I was pleased to see Frankie Dettori joining Sir Michael Stoute in pledging his support for the lad, but as with prizemoney and the scandal of the Cambridgeshire, referred to last week, something seriously needs to be done.

I note that while the Cambridgeshire, traditional first leg of the Autumm Double in the days when bookmakers were prepared to risk a few quid in case someone might get them both – in my time on the Daily Telegraph I managed it a couple of times – is worth £61k to the winner, the Cesarewitch over twice the distance, carries more than twice the money – £128K.

The top weight in the first leg has a handicap mark of 109 and there are 121 entries. Top weight in the Cesarewitch is 108 and 94 have been entered. It seems ridiculous given the tradition that there should be such a disparity. Among the latter race’s entries and now with a 4lb penalty after her €40k free kick in France the other day is the 2020 Triumph Hurdle winner, Burning Victory.

Yet to run on the Flat either in her now home base of Ireland or in England, she has two Flat wins in France to her credit for Willie Mullins this summer. I was gratified to see that the BHB handicapper thought she merited 96 rather than the French 88 when Cesarewitch entries were made and the 4lb more as against the French 11lb for Deauville brings them in line. How about her being the one from his 14 entries that is most fancied – he usually lines one up in particular for it? The fact she is only 12/1 suggests the guess might have some mileage.

As the ink was barely dry – yes I’m still living in the dark ages, but at least I don’t talk about quill pens! – on last week’s article, I started reading a book that has been on my shelves for years and one I have always assumed I’d read. I hadn’t!

Called Horsetrader, it was written in 1994 by noted author Patrick Robinson, with Nick Robinson, and outlined the 20 years of Coolmore stud dominance in racing and breeding and then the challenge made to them by Arab owners, particularly Sheikh Mohammed. Unexpected meetings in life can propel our future in a totally unexpected direction, and it was such an unlikely eventuality that years later brought Robert Sangster, heir to the Vernon’s Pools fortune, into a partnership with John Magnier and his father-in-law, Vincent O’Brien.

In his schooldays at Repton College, Sangster had an opinion that Vincent O’Brien must be the greatest trainer of racehorses in the world. “Had the Irishman not won three consecutive Grand Nationals and three Gold Cups and Champion Hurdles in the post-war era before turning to the Flat?”, he reasoned.

Later, as he was feeling his way in the family firm, Sangster used to meet up with several of the other well-connected young men in Liverpool where Vernon’s was based. There he met Nick Robinson, grandson of businessman Sir Foster Robinson, once a top cricketer and now a horse breeder outside his commercial interests.

Sangster’s chosen hobbies were golf on the Hoylake links where father Vernon would become Men’s Captain and mother Peggy, Lady Captain, and more seriously boxing. He won a dozen fights unbeaten before going into the army as a private soldier and another dozen in the service as a heavyweight. His godfather had taken him under his wing, often travelling down to London for big fight nights and for tuition with the great middleweight British champion, Freddie Mills.

But racing under Robinson’s prompting came into his life and it was with a horse trained locally by Eric Cousins, who was to be his first trainer before he graduated to Vincent, that he became enraptured by the sport.

On one of their Kardomah coffee house meetings, Nick Robinson told the gathering that Cousins’ horse Chalk Stream – I knew the name was familiar when seeing Saturday’s race – would win the Lincoln. It was 1960 and young Robert became captivated by the thought of a horse being “laid out” to land a big gamble, especially when his friend knew chapter and verse and also “everything it seemed” about racing.

Chalk Stream lost that race but won the Liverpool Autumn Cup in the days when Aintree still staged Flat racing, and from then there was no stopping him. Derby winners, stallions, champion owner and eventually breeder accolades all followed in great profusion over the next four decades.

I’d only got to page 6 when I saw fit to text Robert’s son Sam saying: “Now I know why you and your brothers are who you are!”

The book ends in 1994 when our hero is still intertwined with Coolmore, preparing to keep his massive new investment in Manton along with his 100 broodmares and breeding rights to some of the best and most highly valued stallions in the world. The latter chapter, just as successful but now with Michael Tabor and Smith joining Magnier and Aidan O’Brien, equally deserves telling.

I did a little research about Patrick Robinson, born in Kent but who now lives in the USA and is 81. Initially I assumed he must have been Nick’s son, but now am prepared to guess he was his elder brother as Nick is 77. As usual there’s nobody to ask once Wikepedia fails me at 3 a.m. on Monday morning.

Sadly I heard at the sales at Newmarket last week that Nick Robinson hadn’t been well. Robert Sangster of course died impossibly long ago in 2004 aged only 67. Two Derby wins – although he had owned Dr Devious before selling him too – 27 European Classic races and more than 100 Group 1 horses fell to his colours. Happily they are still seen on a number of the Sam Sangster syndicates based at Manton under Brian Meehan.

Quite a few were in action at the recently concluded Racing League where Brian, Alan King and Roger Charlton joined forces. Despite a paucity of publicity outside Sky Sports racing’s coverage, Meehan reckons it was a very good initiative that should be persevered with.

Six evenings of six races with £25k to each winner has been a target for some of the leading trainers and he believes there is scope for an expansion next year. “When it happens you should come along. You would enjoy it!” As I enjoy anything to do with racing or sales, I’m sure I would.

- TS

Old Borough Cup Preview and Tips: Autumn War and The Trader Look Value Calls

/in , /by

A really good day of racing lies ahead if competitive racing is your thing but it does have to be said, a few of these big handicaps this weekend have slightly underwhelming turnouts. Several of the heritage handicaps are closer to half full than reaching their maximum fields and I’m not entirely sure why that is (prize money seems largely in line with what is was last year).

The big 7f handicap at Ascot makes plenty of appeal as a betting medium but personally I feel as though I never enjoy much success in these Ascot cavalry charges (even if there are fewer runners this year) whereas I find I have plenty of success in Haydock handicaps for whatever reason so I’m going to go with the Old Borough Handicap, generally one of my favourite races of the season.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Only the 12 runners this year so is there still any sort of draw bias?

I’ve only included races run on good to firm to good to soft in this sample. Haydock is prone to being soft or heavy, especially this meeting, but if we include races on softer ground the data might be less relevant as the runners tend to explore different ground in the straight on softer ground. We end up with a small sample but hopefully the data is more reliable.

The win data suggests low is NOT the place to be, but in small samples the win data isn’t particularly helpful. The place percentages have high as the best but low not far behind and middle comes out worst. This data is either slightly misleading or suggests no real bias.

The PRB data is most reliable in small samples as every runner contributes to the data sample. The PRB data for this is in line with the place percentages in that high is best, followed by low, then middle.

If we want to expand our data sample, rather than changing the going parameters in the Draw Analyser, we can instead include extra distances. By including 12f races as well we get this data:

We again see a similar trend here with low draws performing poorly for win purposes, but still bettering middle when it comes to place percentages and PRB. In fact this time around the best PRB score belongs to low, instead of high, for all there is very little in it.

Given the field size isn’t huge here and the data doesn’t really have any strong biases I’m inclined to think that the draw shouldn’t have too much bearing on this.

Pace

Should we ignore pace as well?

We should never ignore pace - even at fair tracks there can be a pace bias due to the individual pace setup of the race.

The majority of winners here tend to be held up but that’s how the majority of runners are ridden. The best win percentage does lie with those held up but the best place percentages are with prominent racers and then front runners. Overall there is very little in the figures here and no strong pattern. This suggests that this course and distance is one of the fairest, both in terms of pace and draw. Barring a very weak early gallop or very strong early gallop in this contest it should be the best horse on the ground that comes out on top.

Old Borough Cup Pace Map

So will there be an individual pace bias in this race?

There isn’t a huge amount of pace in this one which could give those who race nearer the pace a slight advantage. Hochfeld is a habitual front runner whilst The Trader and Noble Masquerade tend to race prominently but other than that the rest seem likely to be delivered late.

Anything that wants further could be inconvenienced the speedier types at this trip could benefit.

The Runners

Here is the field for the 2021 Old Borough Cup, in early odds order.

Global Storm

Had been largely consistent, if not progressive, until finishing a well enough beaten 10th in the Ebor a fortnight ago. This is much easier but that performance won’t be good enough to win this. There is a suspicion that his very best form has come at Newmarket with course form figures 1161212. On top of that he seems a bit better with cut in the ground. He did finish a fair 3rd at Ascot in the Copper Horse Stakes proving he doesn’t ‘need’ Newmarket but that Ascot race has worked out really poorly, not throwing up one subsequent flat winner.

On the subject of form not working out, Global Storm’s 2nd at Newmarket over this trip on his penultimate start hasn’t worked out either, not one of the first nine finishers has won since. He’s definitely short enough in the betting all things considered, for all this isn't the strongest renewal of this race.

Noble Masquerade

With this race possibly suiting speedier types due to a like steady gallop, Noble Masquerade certainly won’t lack for speed having won over 11f this season. He does have to prove his stamina though. He seemed not to stay 14f last season at York, and generally looked to not be staying 12f. He started this season off over an extended mile and ran very well but his form really took off this season when headgear was applied, producing form figures of 2121. In regards to stamina, he rallied okay over 12f at York on his penultimate start when runner up but probably improved again for a slight drop in trip at Windsor when winning by 4 lengths. That was only a 5 runner race and Noble Masquerade has been hit with a 6lbs rise in the weights for that effort.

Given he’s by Sir Percy you’d probably expect him to stay this far, the image above shows the record of Sir Percy progeny in flat handicaps and they have won over as far as 2m1f and only have a marginally worse place percentage at this trip than at 12f but it has to be a concern that Noble Masquerade has been beaten in all five starts over 12f or further whilst he ran so well over an extended mile earlier this season. For all he’s one of the more progressive ones in the line up he’s a risky bet at the price.

Rajinsky

Throws in the occasional bad run but he’s a solid yardstick in these staying events. In fact his last six runs at 2m have resulted in form figures of 221232. However this race isn’t over that distance, it’s over 14f and his form figures over this trip are 12946. Those better runs came off 11lb and 8lb lower marks and he looked in need of further when behind Global Storm at Newmarket in July in that handicap that hasn’t worked out well. Even under ideal conditions he finds it very difficult to get his head in front so whilst he’s normally a reliable place bet at 2m, he has to be taken on over this 14f trip, especially without a strong gallop on the cards.

Rhythmic Intent

Another fairly reliable runner who ran very well last time out at York. He was a staying on 5th over 12f in a race where it favoured those who were up with the pace so to make up the ground he did suggested he’s one to be with very soon. He shaped as though in need of further that day but the ground was probably more of a factor than the distance in how he ran. His form figures on good to firm read 03645 whereas his form on good to soft or soft reads 3321311472027. Those efforts suggest not only is he much better on softer ground, but also that he’s clearly not as well handicapped as he was previously. In fairness though, he’s also been competing in much better races.

He does stay this trip, he won over 13f last season and he was a creditable 4th in this last season but he got his ground last year and was still beaten off a 1lb higher mark. He should prove more reliable at 12f on soft ground before the end of the season for all he could run pretty well here.

Autumn War

He seems to have rediscovered his form again, undoubtedly because the cheekpieces have gone back on for his last few runs. His form figures in this headgear read 11422 and he finished lame for that 4th. He ran very well last time out over 2m and if you watched that run you’d think he needs all of that trip but his last two wins have come over this distance in races that have worked out well at Wolverhampton and he’s been runner up over this trip on turf on his last two attempts.

The negatives are that he can race a bit awkwardly and he probably doesn’t put absolutely everything in. He needs to be delivered late and would have made far more appeal had there been more likely pace on offer. He should run well though at a very fair price. I’d certainly take him to finish ahead of Rajinsky over this trip.

Indianapolis

A frustrating sort who is on a nice mark now but he still seems incapable of taking advantage – or even finishing in the places. He’s finished either 4th, 5th or 6th on his last four runs and looks a bit paceless and a bit tripless. You could argue he’s worth a try over 2m2f but he’s flopped on both tries at this distance. Connections have clearly had similar thoughts as they swap the cheekpieces for a visor on this occasion in an attempt to sharpen him up but he was well beaten on his only run in a visor so it’s difficult to predict a sudden resurgence.

Alright Sunshine

Talented but unpredictable, Alright Sunshine was a narrow 2nd in this two years ago. It’s not clear what his best trip is – he has looked a stayer but then confounded that by winning over 12f earlier this season, albeit in a relatively uncompetitive race. That was his first run in a visor but it didn’t quite work so well second time out when he was midfield in the Northumberland Plate.

If on a going day he has the form to go close in this but he’s not one to completely trust and he’d make more appeal if there was more pace in the field.

Hochfeld

Probably the sole pace angle in the race and he could go well if things go his way. He definitely runs the odd terrible race but most of those come on softer ground. On faster ground he’s generally a more solid proposition and he ran a decent 4th over 2m at York, a trip that probably slightly stretches him, but he had no excuses when slightly disappointing last time out at Newmarket, a course he has previously won at.

Looking at his better performances, four of his five handicap wins have come in single digit fields but he was 2nd of 20 in the Northumberland Plate this season. He has a 50% place strike rate on good to firm which reads well with that going likely this weekend but a few other stats gathered from the Profiler tool are a worry. He’s won 3 out of 4 for Franny Norton but has not placed in five runs for Joe Fanning who rides here. He hasn’t managed a place in 5 runs in September, in fact he’s only placed in 1 of his 11 runs in the final four months of the year during his career.

He’s also seemingly much better on very sharp courses so Haydock might not suit as well as some others. He’s run here four times and has run just about okay on three occasions but was poor on the other attempt. I’d have loved to have been able to make a strong case for him given he should get an uncontested lead, and I’m not completely ruling him out, but he doesn’t look a bet even at double figure odds.

Island Brave

A pretty reliable runner who was just behind Hochfeld last time out over 2m. He’s running like a horse who isn’t badly handicapped but isn’t well handicapped though, generally finishing around the places or just outside. He runs here off a mark of 98 and his last win came off 97 whilst he’s also won off 96, 95 and 93. His last two wins have come over 2m but he has won at this trip, admittedly three years ago. He’d make more appeal over further and this probably isn’t the pace setup to bring about a career best from him so expect to see him staying on well but maybe only finishing into 5th or 6th. If he drops a few pounds he’s one to look out for over 2m on a sound surface.

Nicholas T

An absolute credit to connections and he’s taken his form to a new level this season winning the Northumberland Plate on his first run beyond 13f. That win came off just a 2lb lower mark so he’s not handicapped out of this but he does need to bounce back from some lesser runs. His run in the John Smith’s Cup wasn’t dreadful considering he was poorly placed how it was run, then a mile at Ayr wouldn’t have suited next time out. He went up a full mile in trip last time out at York and ran pretty badly but he was unruly before hand and that can’t be completely held against him.

The form of his wins haven’t really worked out and his form seems to have dropped off but he is capable of bouncing back. I just wonder whether he might be a better bet at Ayr later this month, a course where he has won seven times in the past.

The Trader

All his wins and all but one of his placed efforts have come on good or better ground so the fact that his last five runs have come on ground ranging between soft and good to soft suggest he should improve here on a sounder surface. On his last start on good to firm he won, beating Hochfeld into 2nd, and The Trader is a further 1lb better off here. That is the only time The Trader has gone beyond 1m4f on fast ground so whilst he has to prove himself over the extra furlong here (that win came at 1m5f), he is unexposed as a stayer.

Assuming he bounces back to form on better ground, he should get the run of the race here given he is likely to track Hochfeld. He’s a risky proposition, and it’s a concern he’s done all his winning in small fields, but he’s probably overpriced given the likely pace setup.

Sextant

Formerly quite smart for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s largely struggled for Keith Dalgleish. He did put in a much better effort last time out though here in a small field though, a scenario that probably wouldn’t have played to his strengths. He hadn’t run badly at Royal Ascot behind Global Storm in a race not run to suit in fairness and there is every reason to think he’s getting ready to strike off a mark 7lbs lower than his peak rating for his previous yard.

He used to lead early or race prominently but slow starts this season have meant he’s invariably been held up. If they don’t go very fast early here he’d find it easier to recover from a slow start and maybe race in mid division or even more prominently, especially given a fair few of these will likely take a pull. There are certainly worse bets at this sort of price.

The Verdict

A disappointing field for this with no bombproof looking candidates. Scottish trained trio Alright Sunshine, Nicholas T and Sextant are all capable of outrunning their odds and potentially taking this, especially Sextant who is quite tempting.

Assuming it doesn’t rain hard Rhythmic Intent is best avoided and whilst I think Autumn War isn’t to be underestimated, he’s not the most willing in a finish so he’s possibly one to back place only, for all he’s not a terrible each way bet by any means.

Autumn War appeals as the best value place bet in this but the best value win bet could be THE TRADER. If you excuse his recent form on account of the ground he comes here 2lbs lower than his last winning mark (this season) and he’s likely to be well placed off what will probably be a fairly steady gallop. He’s got the speed for shorter but should stay this far (proven over nearly this trip). He's worth chancing for win purposes but could just as easily bomb out so perhaps isn’t an each way proposition.

Monday Musings: A True Goodwood Celebration

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There was a lovely moment at Goodwood racecourse on Saturday afternoon, writes Tony Stafford. The Celebration Mile, initially the Wills Mile and a feature of the late summer fixture since 1967, was always a post-York and pre-St Leger highlight.

In the early 1980’s no trainer did better than Guy Harwood with three wins in four years, via smart trio To-Agori-Mou (1981), Sandhurst Prince the following year and Rousillon in 1984.
At around that time, his Pulborough, West Sussex, stables, financed by the family motor sales business, was one of the top yards for big race wins in the UK. Stable jockey Greville Starkey, yet to be compromised by his poor ride on Dancing Brave in the 1986 Derby and then an overly extravagant celebration after the horse won his next race in the Eclipse, rode all three.

Owner Khalid Abdullah was never a man for extravagance of any kind – save in terms of having legions of high-class racehorses – and Pat Eddery took over from that point. Dancing Brave proved one of the greats and Eddery had a long time as the Saudi Prince’s principal jockey.

In the early 1980’s the race had a lot of prestige, not quite of the level from the earliest days when such as Habitat, the peerless Brigadier Gerard and Kris adorned the race’s Roll of Honour; but it was still a major event very much to win. It fell in 1999 to Cape Cross, later sire of Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, having been disqualified as a three-year-old two years earlier.

Anyway, I mentioned a lovely moment and that came with the strong finish and narrow victory of Lavender’s Blue, trained by Amanda Perrett, daughter of Guy Harwood. It is almost impossible to believe that Amanda, with the considerable help of husband Mark, previously a top-class jumps rider, has been holding the licence for a quarter of a century since her father’s retirement.
In that period she has initially “waxed” to a best score of 60 a decade or so ago to if not quite “waning”, she certainly has had to accept much smaller figures. In the regard that she is suffering from the familiar story of established trainers struggling to attract new owners.

The 2021 version of Horses in Training listed 24 horses in her care. The fact that she has won 19 races from the 23 that have run – two juveniles of her original trio are yet to appear – speaks volumes of the efficiency of her operation.

One owner who has stayed loyal over the years, especially since the retirement of the late John Dunlop, has been Benny Andersson, 25% of storied Swedish pop group Abba in terms of personnel and 50% of the writing team.

In the persona of Chess Racing - celebrating the musical he and Bjorn Ulveaus wrote with Tim Rice – he bred Lavender’s Blue, a daughter of Sea The Stars from a Danehill mare. The decision to keep her in training as a five-year-old, apart from getting her trainer back in the big time where she belongs, has brought handsome dividends with her future stud career in mind. One day at Newmarket two years ago in the owners’ room he sat quietly with the Perrett’s at the next table to me and Peter Ashmore, a pleasant, quiet and very humble man. The memory of that day alone makes me enjoy the mare’s success.

On Saturday she needed to peg back the multiple Group 1 world traveller Benbatl as Godolphin’s seven-year-old initiated another return after injury, and also overcome a previous winner of the Group 2 race in Duke Of Hazzard.

The Celebration success added to a Listed win at the start of her season and then she was a close third in the Dahlia Stakes, a nine-furlong Group 2 on 1,000 Guineas Day, behind top-class Lady Bowthorpe, whose subsequent heroics could have prepared us rather more than the 20-1 SP on Saturday suggested.

As the Amanda Perrett stable has rationalised itself, the famed Pulborough gallops do have another occupant and one who this year has had a much higher profile. French-born David Menuisier has always been regarded as a man who takes time with his horses and he too has a smart filly in his care.

Menuisier had worked initially in the UK with John Dunlop and, while he was there, he came under the scrutiny of Marcus Hosgood, the long-time right-hand man to Dunlop whose influence in finding suitable races for the Arundel inmates should not be under-estimated. I met Hosgood at Arundel when there just the once with Prince Ahmed Bin Salman to watch a few Thoroughbred Corporation-owned horses go through their paces.

Reputedly that was a luxury even the stable jockeys for Dunlop never experienced, that singular gentleman preferring to restrict galloping duties to the trusted home-based work riders. Since taking out a licence himself, horses like Thundering Blue have advertised Menuisier’s talent and this year Wonderful Tonight is only a 10-1 chance in betting on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe despite her disappointing run behind Snowfall in the Yorkshire Oaks when the fast ground was not in her favour.

A few years ago I bumped into Marcus Hosgood at a gathering of former Raceform employees – many of whom have gone on to bigger and better things - myself qualifying as the one-time part-time Editor of the late, much-lamented Racehorse weekly publication. The event was organised by my almost exact contemporary Will Lefebve and we met in a pub close to the former Raceform base in Battersea, South-West London. Chatting about Menuisier, the shrewd Hosgood declared him the most talented horseman he had ever met. Praise indeed!

Amanda Perrett is no mean horsewoman either and where her yard contains, give or take a few mid-season arrivals, two dozen animals, Menuisier has three times as many in his care and stands on 31 wins, so the family firm is more than holding its own. I’m pleased to see that my friend Alan Spence maintains an interest with Amanda in a half-share with stable stalwart John Connolly in a progressive staying Gleneagles three-year-old called Eagle One, a winner and close second in his last two starts.

Jockeys have been restricted to riding at a single meeting from the resumption of racing after the Covid19 break last year and will again have to live with that rule for the whole of 2022, something I agree with. I see Jim Crowley has come out in favour of a continuing bar on racecourse saunas, which has been in place for the same period.

In the days of Guy Harwood’s pomp, most of the top jockeys would ride in the early races at Goodwood then after the Celebration Mile hightail it for the major races on the Windsor tea-time fixture which ended the year’s evening racing in those days.

Apart from the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes, which is still going after around 40 years’ existence, there was and still is a Listed race and a valuable sprint handicap. I used to follow the jockeys’ route for what I now see is the 60-mile trip, largely because it was on my way home – sort of – and in those days I could never resist an opportunity to see top-class racing.

Twenty-one years ago, having seen Sir Michael Stoute win the Celebration Mile with Medicean, later sire of Dutch Art, I followed on to Windsor and Stoute again had the answer with the three-year-old Adilabad. Stoute may not have quite the firepower of old against the 200-plus teams that lead the sport these days, but the talent is clearly intact as he showed as his five-year-old Solid Stone picked up the 34k first prize of the Winter Hill Stakes on Saturday.

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Last week I was getting rather hot under the collar when pointing out the apparent favourable treatment accorded to Irish stables in handicaps on the Flat and especially in the big UK races over jumps. I added for good measure that the French are not immune to allowing Irish horses into races with obvious chances and gave the illustration of a race due to be run at Deauville last Thursday.

Willie Mullins had orchestrated a very clever plan with his 2020 Triumph Hurdle winner Burning Victory who joined his stable after earning a 40-kilo rating (UK/Ire 88) following her three-year-old season in France.

Sparsely campaigned apart from over jumps, she had been sent for only one Flat run since her exportation to Ireland, and that two months ago when Mullins sent her across to Lyon Parilly for a minor conditions race and she had no trouble in winning it by five and a half lengths. To say I was surprised – I did have an interest in the race – that her rating remained firmly on 40 for a race with a €27,500 first prize plus 45% owner’s premium thus just about €40k to the winner is an understatement.

It was worth going for – indeed impossible to ignore - and Burning Victory duly won the race by almost two lengths. Too late for Thursday’s home opposition the handicapper closed the stable door after Mullins’ mare had bolted, giving her 5kg more (11lb). He should have done that before the race.

I was mentioning this situation three days before the race talking at Brighton to Owen Burrows, one of the trainers likely to be most affected by what could be a significant reduction in the Shadwell operation after the death of Sheikh Hamdan earlier in the year.

The twin subjects of our talk were handicappers – and, as he says, how long it takes (and costs) for a horse to come down the handicap in the UK before it is well enough treated to win a race – and the always testy subject of moderate prize money about which he feels people in racing do not complain enough.

Burrows reckons our system with the high administrative and ever-increasing feed costs encourages (or compels) smaller trainers especially to run horses deliberately below their true form to get one big chance to retrieve the high costs with a major bet.

As to prize money, reacting to my tale of the €40k for the equivalent of a 0-88 handicap he surprised me with the case of the Cambridgeshire, run next month and traditionally one of the prime handicaps of the season. This year it carries what I believe given its prestige is a derisory £61k first prize: in 2020 the understandable excuse for lower prizes was Covid and at just shy of £75,000 might have been acceptable in the circumstances.

In 2019 John Gosden’s Lord North, a Group 1 horse masquerading as a handicapper, romped home and collected to all intents and purposes £100,000. Owen wanted to know, where did the missing £40k go? I’d like to ask Jockey Club Racecourses the same thing. The prize is just about 50% more than Burning Victory won for an open goal in Deauville. Something is very wrong somewhere.

Choose Excellency As Value Bet In Live Beverley Contest

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Largely smaller fields than we normally get on a Saturday and for me, the race of most interest is the Silver Cup at Beverley, due off at 2.05pm. This is a 10f handicap for 3yos only. The weather forecast looks dry so this race should be run on ground the fast side of good.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Pace

The draw shouldn’t have much of an impact here given the small field but there is every reason to think pace will still be a very important factor.

There are some fairly strong pace biases at Beverley over shorter trips and even at this 10f distance there is still a bias towards those ridden nearer the pace.

We have a reliable sample size here in smaller fields and the data shows that early leaders have a 24% win strike rate and 51.2% place percentage. That’s some way clear of the 14.04% win percentage and 36.09% place percentage for prominent racers and the figures for mid division and held up make for even worse reading. There is clearly a strong bias towards early pace over this course and distance.

Unless there is likely to be a strong early gallop in this race then those that race nearer the speed should certainly be marked up. The pace map will tell us more about this.

Pace Map

Here is the pace map for this race.

The two Mark Johnston runners are likely to dominate early in this, both tending to enjoy leading. It’s possible they could take each other on and set this up for something a bit more patiently ridden but given they are from the same stable you’d imagine team tactics will be agreed and they’ll perhaps dispute the lead at a reasonable pace with no other likely front runners in here.

The majority of the rest of the field tend to be patiently ridden. Life On The Rocks was prominent very early last time out but soon lost place and was in a distant last place after a few furlongs.

No Recollection is tactically versatile so his early position is probably most difficult to predict out of the whole field.

Jockey Course Record

Given tactics are likely to be so important in this race it’s worth taking a look at jockey performance at Beverley from the past five years.

The top jockey in terms of A/E and IV is Stefano Cherchi. He’s not the most experienced around here but he’s clearly adapted well to the course and he seems a good jockey booking for Farhan. The only jockey who has had fewer rides here is Tom Marquand but he has ridden a winner here before.

Ben Curtis has ridden more winners here than any of the other jockeys in the past five years. He’s closely followed by Paul Hanagan but that pair have clearly also had the most opportunities.

Paddy Mathers and P J Mcdonald have seemingly underperformed which could be a concern for Life On The Rocks and also the well fancied Barn Owl.

The Runners

Here’s a look at the seven runners, in early odds order.

Barn Owl

Looked like a return to further would suit on his penultimate start at Sandown so it was perhaps a little disappointing he could ‘only’ manage second place at Ripon last time out in a five runner race. In fairness the ground was probably softer than ideal on that occasion and he's worth another try at that distance.

He’s still lightly raced, has finished 2nd in both handicap starts to date and gave 5lbs and a short head to a runner now rated 85 in a novice race earlier this season meaning he looks well handicapped off 84 here but there is a suspicion this trip might be on the short side for him. First time cheekpieces go on which may sharpen him up but he’s probably not one to take a shortish price about.

Titian

William Haggas won this last year with the smart Ilaraab (also had the runner up two years ago) and he bids to repeat that feat with seasonal debutant Titian. He shed his maiden tag in September in a Newcastle novice and followed that up with a respectable third in a Doncaster nursery off a 1lb lower mark. That nursery form has worked out respectably enough so there is every chance he begins his 3yo campaign on a good mark but there is an issue.

Titian ran well on racecourse debut on soft ground and followed that up with a disappointing effort on fast ground at Goodwood, well beaten at 9/4. He won on the all weather and then ran well in his nursery race on good to soft. The evidence points to him being better on softer ground, just like his dam was. On faster ground here, off an absence, he's opposable.

Farhan

He's more exposed than many of these but he’s run to a fair level of form so far. He won last year at the fifth attempt, taking a 10f novice at Pontefract on soft ground like a horse with a future over staying trips. Given that effort he put in a very encouraging seasonal reappearance at Salisbury on good ground, going down by just a short head to No Recollection, who reopposes here 3lbs better off.

That run again suggested Farhan may be better over further, although he would have won on that day had he not made a mess of the start (missed the break by several lengths). A step up to 12f failed to bring about improvement next time at York though. He ran a fair race in 4th in a warm handicap, possibly finding the fastish ground slightly against him.

He missed the next 83 days but put in a good return at Sandown three weeks ago, finishing runner up back down at this trip. He showed a little more early speed that day, perhaps because he was running on the slowest ground he had encountered all season, and got within a neck of the winner. He’ll win a race before the season is out on testing ground over 10f or even over 12f but he is likely to find things happening too quickly here assuming the ground is faster than good.

Life On The Rocks

Richard Fahey has won this twice in the past five years and he’s solely represented by Life On The Rocks here. All three of his runs last year were at a mile, on fast ground, for Kevin Ryan. He ended the season with a 2nd, beaten less than a length, by Tribal Art, who won just this week off a mark of 82, making Life On The Rocks’ mark of 76 looks fairly lenient, especially as he looked like he’d improve as a 3yo over further throughout last season.

He didn’t reappear this year until two weeks ago, having moved stables in the interim, but once again ran well in defeat finishing 3rd off this mark. He was last of all after a couple of furlongs despite breaking well but flew home late. If he didn’t handle the track then that was an excellent run off a lay off. If he’s a bit quirky now and doesn’t give his all early on then he’s going to struggle around here. If he’s able to hold a handy position this time around he could run very well but there are a few unknowns.

March Law

The most lightly raced runner in the field and another that hasn’t run this season. Ben Curtis has ridden the winner of this race for the past two years and he’s booked for the ride. He was a good 2nd to Battleground in the Chesham Stakes last year at Royal Ascot, with that runner winning a Group 2 on his next start. March Law followed that up winning a soft ground novice at just 2/9, scrambling home by a nose in a two runner race.

He’s likely to be advantaged by the run of the race here but he’s obviously had an issue or two and the fact that his best form has come on soft ground is another concern. Maybe one to monitor in the betting, especially in relation to his stablemate.

No Recollection

Handicapped to finish ahead of Farhan on the bare form of their meeting earlier this season but given Farhan started very slowly that day that’s probably not the case. His form has tailed off since then so it’s probably no surprise that connections have had him gelded since his latest disappointment. Given he’s trained by Alan King, that decision may have also been made with a hurdling career in mind.

His early season handicap form would give him a fair chance here, he was 3rd to Mohaafeth in April, receiving just 6lbs from a runner that has subsequently rated 27lbs higher. His run style may or may not be an issue here. He led early when beating Farhan but he’s often been held up too. On his last two tries at this trip he has led and tracked the pace so there is a good chance he’s prominent early.

Mr Excellency

The field is completed by Mr Excellency, a second runner for Mark Johnston. He won his first two starts at this trip, making all in both, before perhaps finding softer ground against him at Glorious Goodwood. A 2lb rise for his most recent win certainly shouldn’t have been enough for him to be beat 23 lengths on his next start.

He’s still unbeaten at this trip on fast ground and his first win over this distance worked out pretty well. The runner up won on his next start, the 3rd met trouble in running and found a sedate gallop against him on his next start but still ran creditably and the 4th has finished 2nd since (this week). He’s 6lbs higher here which is fair and he proved that run was no fluke when following up next time, albeit in a very small field.

The Verdict

Barn Owl probably wants further, Titian and Farhan probably want softer, as may March Law. Two of those are also returning from layoffs. This suggests there might be a bit of value lurking lower down in this race, especially with a potential pace bias looking likely.

Life On The Rocks looks fairly treated and could/should improve on his latest outing. If he finds himself in last place after a couple of furlongs again though it will probably be curtains for him so he’s probably just one to watch, or to back in running if well placed after a few furlongs.

No Recollection isn’t out of this if bouncing back to form after a gelding operation but it’s possible he ends up being held up by choice and he does need to return to his earlier season form. He’s not ruled out but is risky.

MR EXCELLENCY also comes with some risk after his last run but it’s entirely possible that effort was solely down to the ground and his yard’s runners often have no problem bouncing back to form after a poor run. If leading he could get a big advantage here – you’d have to think the stable instructions will be for the two Johnston runners NOT to cut each other’s throats at the head of affairs early on. Assuming he doesn’t go off too hard he looks far too big a price as the outsider of the field.

It might be a slight concern that Ben Curtis would appear to have chosen the stablemate but it’s worth noting Connor Beasley is 3 from 7 when riding for Mark Johnston at Beverley. Curtis on the other hand is just 2 from 9.

Using Market Rank to Assess Trainer Performance

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When it comes to horse race betting, the role of the trainer is of pivotal importance to a great many punters, writes Dave Renham.

That may simply be the trainer themselves, with no filters applied: just as some punters have favourite jockeys, many have favourite trainers and, equally, other trainers they tend to ignore. Trainer form at the course, trainer form over the past 14 days, trainer records with 2yos, the trainer / jockey combo are examples of slightly more refined potential ‘trainer weapons’ in a punter’s armoury.

Personally, I feel trainers and trainer stats have their place but for me they are far from the ‘be all and end all’. Having said that, I believe that digging a little deeper into trainer performance can be a useful exercise. Looking for an edge that most punters would be unaware of is always worth investigating!

A Different Approach to Assessing Trainer Form

In this article, then, I am attempting to evaluate trainer performance in a different way from the ‘norm’. The basic idea is to compare the odds rank of each trainer’s runners with their finishing positions. This is intended to offer a much broader perspective of trainer performance, rather than simply focusing on winners, strike rate and/or returns. I am hoping that we may find a few lesser known trainers whose horses tend to outrun their odds – an ‘over performance’ if you like.

The data I have collated covers three full seasons of UK flat racing (2018 to 2020) and I have focused solely on handicaps. I am using handicaps because they are generally a more consistent data set to use where runners have a theoretically more equal chance in the round.

As with any method there are potential flaws or issues that need to be discussed. Principally, the comparison of finishing position with odds position is going to hinder horses that start favourite as they will be unable to ‘over perform’. The best they can do is match their odds position by winning the race. Hence trainers who have had a good number of favourites will be at a disadvantage using this approach. Having said that, there are ways to try and balance the data as I will attempt to demonstrate later.

There are three possible outcomes in terms of position in the market compared to finishing position:

  1. Expected result – eg a horse 3rd in the betting rank finishes 3rd, a horse 7th in the betting rank finishes 7th etc;
  2. Positive result – eg a horse 5th in the betting rank finishes 2nd, a horse 9th in the betting rank finishes 5th etc;
  3. Negative result - eg a horse 4th in the betting rank finishes 6th, a horse 2nd in the betting rank finishes 4th etc.

 

Trainer Performance

So let us look at trainer performance using these parameters. Firstly, here are the top 25 trainers in terms of positive results using this approach. The table shows the breakdown of terms of total runs, number of positive results, number of negative results and number of expected results. It also breaks these down into percentages – positive percentages, expected and positive percentages combined, and negative percentages:

 

All trainers have a ‘positive and expected combined’ percentage of at least 60%. Lisa Williamson tops the list with 61.12% of her runners outperforming their position in the odds market (82.54% positive / expected combined). However, her overall win strike rate is around 3% so although her runners tend to run above expectations she is not a trainer that we can easily exploit. Indeed, most of the trainers in this list have relatively modest overall win strike rates, but I would say if you fancy one of their runners, you can at least expect it to run well and more likely than not to run better than its price suggests.

In order to try and find a group of trainers that we may be able to profit from, it makes sense to look at a more focused type of runner nearer the head of the market. To that end, I narrowed the search to horses that were not favourite but were priced from 4/1 to 12/1. The theory is that these runners will go closer to winning if they outperform their odds position. It also eliminates favourites who ultimately can only match their market rank, not exceed it:

 

Brett Johnson, who is second in the list, has made an SP profit within this price bracket of 18p in the £. His runners have hit the frame an impressive 42% of the time. Indeed, several of the trainers in this table made a profit to SP and they are shown in a bar chart below. It shows their win strike rate% in blue and their percentage profit in orange. They are ordered with the most profitable starting from the left:

 

For the record, four other trainers would have made a profit betting to Betfair SP – they were Christine Dunnett, Antony Brittain, Grace Harris and Linda Perratt.

Trainer Performance: Comparison Values

Another way to compare finishing position with market position is to calculate what I will call a ‘Comparison’ Value. In order to explain clearly what I mean, let me show you how to calculate this figure by using a simple example.

We start by looking at the difference between the market position and the finishing position. Let us imagine trainer ‘A’ has had 10 runners with the following results:

 

So ten races and we then add up the difference column. This gives us a total of 12. To get our ‘Comparison’ Value we then divide this total difference by the total number of races. So in this example we have 12 divided by 10. This gives us a ‘Comparison Value’ of 1.20. In other words, on average the runners from this hypothetical trainer have finished 1.2 places higher than their odds rank suggested they should.

Clearly trainers can achieve positive or negative Comparison Values depending on their overall performance. I have calculated these figures for all trainers over this three year period – again I have ignored any favourites for the same reason as discussed earlier in the article.

Below are the trainers who have achieved a figure of 1.00 or greater.

 

The figures are slightly skewed due to the fact that most of these trainers primarily run less fancied horses. It therefore makes it easier for them to outperform their odds rank over time. Thus it again makes sense to use this ‘comparison’ method closer to the head of the market, by deploying our 4/1 to 12/1 price bracket (and again excluding favourites). This creates a more level playing field.

At this point the figures for all trainers drop markedly and only three have managed a positive Comparison Value – Michael Attwater, Derek Shaw and Mike Smith (R Michael Smith). However, here are the top 30 trainers within this price bracket in terms of highest Comparison Values:

 

I do feel these trainers are ones to keep on the right side of with runners that are priced around the 4/1 to 12/1 mark in handicaps. Not only would I look to exploit them for occasional straight win bets, I would look closely at each way options (doubles and trebles) as well as placepot options. For any spread bettors out there, an unconventional way of evaluating trainers and their likely performance has definite potential. Maybe one of the ideas mentioned here could provide the genesis of that sought after edge.

Summary

No method, idea, or rating is fool proof. Ideas I have discussed in this article certainly come into that category. However, in order to try and stay ahead of the game, it is worth our while thinking ‘outside the box’. Going against the crowd often pays dividends as you are more likely to obtain value for your selection, if the masses aren’t backing it too.

There are countless ways to analyse data: I’m not saying what I have done here is perfect, but it is a different slant and was interesting and enlightening from my personal perspective. I hope you’ve taken something from it as well.

  • DR

 

Monday Musings: Sonny Side Up Again for Irish Raiders

/in /by

Throughout the Cheltenham (especially) and Aintree spring jumping Festivals, much of the conversation within the media but more importantly among trainers and owners was the manner in which Irish trainers’ horses seemed not just to outrun their handicap marks but almost to transcend them, writes Tony Stafford.

For ages Willie Mullins has been able to take aim at some of the fattest staying Flat-race prizes over here, having a well prepared line-up of Championship-class jumpers primed to run away with races like the Cesarewitch.

No wonder then that much of the build-up to Saturday’s Sky Bet Ebor at York was dominated by the expectation that once again the home trainers were going to be caught with their pants down. Mullins was coming and unleashing a horse that had not seen a racecourse since October.

The world’s greatest jumps trainer is renowned for bringing back former stars from long absences for easy victories and Mt Leinster, a six-year-old by Beat Hollow, told a compelling tale. Starting out life as an average bumper horse and then hurdler, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire. However once Willie’s son Patrick got onto him in qualified riders’ Flat races (amateur and conditionals) and lastly the Kildare Amateur Riders’ Derby his progress was remorseless.

After an initial Flat-race win over a mile and a half he next found the concession of 11lb to the talented and versatile Wonder Laish beyond him. It was his following victory that projected him into a different league. At Listowel he gave 11lb and an easy five-length beating to French importation Cape Gentleman who had already shown winning form at home for Nicolas Clement.

Following that performance he won again at 3 to 1 on to end his season. Meanwhile, Cape Gentleman was running away with the Irish Cesarewitch before embarking on a successful winter over jumps. Last time, in the highly-competitive Galway Hurdle, Cape Gentleman was a creditable third to Mullins’ Saldier, another of those smart jumpers that seem to mop up valuable handicaps at will.

In the event Mt Leinster proved a severe Ebor disappointment, finishing in the rear division; but, never fear, the UK handicappers still managed to extend their reputation for charitable largesse in the Irish quest for the holy grail of the half-million pound Ebor pot with its £300k to the winner.

Few doubt that, as good a champion jockey as was Johnny Murtagh, he is shaping as though he will become an even better trainer. When he brought his four-year-old Sonnyboyliston to Chester for the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes – he was a good third behind Ballydoyle’s Japan and subsequent Goodwood Cup winner, Trueshan – maybe the Ebor was already in his sights.

He might have expected a rise in his horse’s mark of 109 and that seemed the most likely outcome after a comfortable victory back home in Listed company. That is not to understand those compliant handicappers who left him unchanged. Thus on Saturday with those impeccably solid Graded form credentials, he was, remarkably, 3lb lower than when easily winning an admittedly valuable Curragh handicap for Murtagh last autumn.

On Saturday, Sonnyboyliston duly took advantage of that leniency and, having passed Hughie Morrison’s fellow four-year-old Quickthorn, he just managed to resist the gallant runner-up’s late rally by a head. Morrison reckoned the winner may have been getting lonely in the lead and also that had the rain started when predicted on Saturday rather than when the horses were in the paddock for the race it would have helped his horse but would not have inconvenienced the winner.

There are occasions when trainers do not mind their horses being reassessed up to the full value of their victories and Quickthorn was a case in point. He reappeared this term on a mark of 84 – a full 28lb lower than Sonnyboyliston at the end of last year – so needed to do something special to get into the most valuable handicap of the year which was Morrison’s rather wishful ambition.

This process got a big boost when Quickthorn won by a wide margin at Haydock on his return, bolting clear in the heavy ground up the straight. Raised 13lb for that and then another 6lb more for success in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot it meant he just squeezed in on Saturday, but even so only 6lb lower in the weights than Sonnyboyliston. Great progress then from Quickthorn, but the Irish got the big money again.

When the dust settles Morrison will need a rethink as the guaranteed extra few pounds will put most UK handicaps beyond his reach. The trainer will be targeting long-distance Group races in France where the four-year-old will have more chance of getting his favoured soft ground. Morrison has exploited this division with such as his subsequent Melbourne Cup runner-up Marmelo, the durable and talented Nearly Caught and from an earlier vintage Alcazar, who won a Group 1 for Morrison aged ten.

It’s not just over here that the big Irish teams seem to get plenty of help. One of the balloted out horses for the Ebor was the 2020 Triumph Hurdle winner Burning Victory when she infamously took advantage of Goshen’s last-flight misfortune.

The now five-year-old was number 47 in the Ebor list so never had a chance of getting in but the pragmatic Willie spotted an opportunity at Deauville on Thursday and I will be shocked if at the final stage today (around 11 a.m. BST) she has not stood her ground.

This is a two-mile handicap and with 34 eligible before today she will be in the first half of the divided race for which the winner gets €27,500 plus 45% owners’ premiums, so just short of €40k, well worth the road/ferry fees.

When Burning Victory left France as a three-year-old before switching to Ireland she had a 40 kilogram rating, equivalent to 88 on this side of the Channel.  Appropriately Thursday’s race is called the Handicap de la Manche. <The advantages of tote monopoly - €40k and that’s just to the winner for a 0-88, goodness!>.

While being employed exclusively over jumps in Ireland since her arrival she has been back on the level in France this summer. A conditions race over 2m1f at Lyon Parilly in June fitted nicely between runs in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival and seventh place in the previously-mentioned Galway Hurdle.

She won that modest event by five and a half lengths, surely evidence enough that she is better than an 88, as you would expect of a Triumph Hurdle winner benefiting from two years of Mullins’ training. But the French handicappers have left her on her historical mark. You would have thought they might have seen Willie coming. I’m sure Clement’s Fitzcarraldo, whom I had planned to travel over to see in that same race, will have the Mullins mare to beat even though receiving 19lb from her.

I did say I planned to drive over but the old-time there and back in a day via Eurotunnel – my chosen mode of travel in the French Fifteen days – seems so tied up by Covid-flavoured red tape that it is looking increasingly unlikely that I can be there.

You do not need to take a test to enter France, or so I believe, as long as you have the correct number of vaccinations, which obviously I do.

But on returning to the UK you need one form showing you were tested between one and three days prior to that return from France with documentation of where you had been staying. Then two days after arrival it’s another test and not a free NHS job or even so I understand the £60 Boots special but a full-blown £125-a-go test from designated chemists and the like.

One trip I am definitely going to undertake is to toddle down to Brighton to see my friend Jonathan Barnett’s other active horse, the three-year-old Dusky Lord, try to overcome inexperience (one run last year) and an injury absence in a little maiden race.

I loved going to Ascot for the King George and today will be only my second appearance since Burning Victory’s Triumph Hurdle day. Maybe it will be an omen if I can’t make it to France. She was one of the luckiest Festival winners of all time and perhaps the luck might have run out. Alternatively Willie might think why bother to pick up another 40 grand? We live in hope.

Deauville continued apace yesterday and the Prix Morny was a triumph for the Richard Fahey stable with Perfect Power. He had been a desperately unlucky fifth at Goodwood on his latest appearance behind Asymmetric.

Alan King’s sprinter was again in the field and actually took the lead in the last furlong but had no answer to the finishing speed of Perfect Power (a son of Ardad) who held off another finisher, Trident, trained by Andre Fabre and running in the Tabor colours.

The Coolmore owners’ York had been mainly frustrating from the moment St Mark’s Basilica had to be scratched from the Juddmonte International owing to an injury sustained on the home gallops. Late sub Love proved no match in third behind six-length winner Mishriff who starred in a Gosden family revival stunningly shared by the ultra-game Stradivarius, holding Spanish Mission in the Lonsdale Stakes, undoubtedly the thriller of the week.

At least Snowfall was able to maintain her winning sequence in a third Oaks, copying Love last year with wide-margin wins at Epsom, the Curragh (Irish) and York (Yorkshire). Some churlish observers were reading down the distances, 16 to eight to four and discerning something sinister from them.

Aidan O’Brien seemed to be considering Champions weekend in Ireland as a preliminary before her top target in the Arc for which she is the 3-1 favourite. I’m sure “the boys” would be content with another halving to a victory by two lengths on the first Sunday in October. But then again as York showed us last week, a lot that can happen before that.

- TS

Ebor Handicap 2021 Preview and Tips: Away He Goes Ticks All The Boxes

/in , /by

It’s quality not quantity as far as the live races on Saturday are concerned and as I’m a big handicap fan the choice seems to be the Melrose or the Ebor, both run over the same course and distance. I love a 3yo stayer but there are just too many unknowns in the Melrose with so many lightly raced runners meaning it’s the big one, the Ebor Handicap, that I’ll be previewing this week.

The race is due off at 3.35pm and as usual it will be run over York’s 1m6f course. There are 22 runners (plus reserves) to go through and hopefully the race will be run on good to firm ground. There is rain forecast on Saturday but the vast majority is likely to fall after the race and after racing finishes as things stand. This of course could change between now and Saturday though.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

The effect of the draw on round course races can sometimes be overlooked, and sometimes overestimated, where do you want to be drawn over this course and distance?

Not much between the win figures but slightly against convention the place percentages and PRB figures suggest low is slightly disadvantaged with a considerably lower place percentage compared to middle and high and a slightly worse PRB score than the higher draws.

This is something that should be investigated further with the individual stall data.

It’s worth noting that eight of the best nine individual stall PRB figures belong to double figure draws with 16, 18, 19 and 20 filling the top four positions. This would suggest the higher the draw the better.

Stalls 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 are all amongst the poorer performers with PRB figures between 0.47 and 0.39.

Stalls 1 and 20 have both previously won this race so you can clearly win from anywhere and no draw should be written off but slight preference would be for something drawn in the top half of the draw, all other things being equal.

Pace

The shorter trips here favour early pace, what about this distance?

Quite the opposite when it comes to the 1m6f distance here with hold up performers bossing it in terms of both win percentage and place percentage. The place percentages suggest there isn’t much between mid division and front running with prominent coming out worse of all with a place percentage that is three times worse than that for the most patiently ridden types.

It’s not impossible to make all here but it’s pretty clear that on fast ground it will be difficult to dominate and in most cases those that are held up and delivered late may have a distinct advantage.

The individual pace make up of each race will obviously have an impact on this but granted an even to strong early gallop the best value could be gained from hold up performers in this race.

Ebor Handicap 2021 Pace Map

Here is the pace map for the 2021 running of the Ebor Handicap at York.

There clearly isn’t going to be an extremely strong pace in this with just one recognised front runner (Mt Leinster) but Makawee has led in two of his last three starts (was held up on his penultimate run making his average run style look slightly less prominent). Max Vega is another who has led in two of his last three runs so there should be no shortage of pace and at the very least we’ll likely get an even gallop that could give a slight edge to the runners that are held up.

Draw and Pace Combination

With such a big field here we could witness some micro advantages within the usual draw and pace biases so the draw and pace combination heat map will help highlight those.

What this heat map tells us that front runners are best served by a middle draw with prominent racers doing best from a low draw (but not doing well in general). Low draws that race in mid division seem to perform extremely poorly but they do much better from middle to low draws and the draw doesn’t seem to matter at all if you are held up.

So whilst a low draw had seemed a slight disadvantage according to the draw data, this helps highlight that it is no disadvantage at all if you are going to be held up but the stats aren’t good for all other run types with low draws.

The Runners

Here are the runners for the 2021 Ebor Handicap, in early odds order:

Live Your Dream *FIRST RESERVE*

The ante post favourite for this isn’t guaranteed a run, he needs one to come out. Quite a few of the field would prefer rain so maybe he’ll get a run but most entries are going to want to see how early Saturday’s rain turns up which could count against him.

On form he has obvious claims having bolted up in an uncompetitive Wolverhampton handicap before winning a 15 runner heritage handicap over this trip at Newmarket at the July Festival. That looks pretty solid form, even if it hasn’t worked out particularly well, and he can’t really be crabbed for beating everything he’s come up against comfortably at this trip or further.

Sonnyboyliston

Yet to race on faster than good but his better form has come on better ground so there should be no issues with underfoot conditions. One of his most interesting pieces of form is his 4.25 length victory at the Curragh 11 months ago which worked out well and that effort suggests he was more well in than the 9lb higher mark he now runs off.

His form has been slightly underwhelming this season though for one of his rating. He won a pretty poor listed race in June over 12f and his two runs over further haven’t particularly advertised his claims for this – he was behind three of these rivals last time out over course and distance including Roberto Escobar who he has to give weight to here.

Hamish

Still lightly raced and certainly a horse to be interested in given he won twice over course and distance in 2019 before being beaten just a neck by subsequent group 1 winner Trueshan off level weights. He only managed one run last season though, which was an eyecatching run at Royal Ascot.

His form is top notch and he’s certainly capable of proving better than his handicap mark of 108 but he hasn’t been seen for 428 days and on top of that he’d prefer softer ground by all accounts, for all he has won on good to firm here previously. In these big handicaps you tend to get one horse who shortens dramatically just before the off and Hamish looks like that sort of runner. Either way he's certainly one to watch in the market, even if he is already well found.

Ilaraab

Likes it here as he’s won both starts on the Knavesmire but he’s pretty ground dependent (was withdrawn on good ground last time out). He beat an okay field by 3 lengths here in May off a mark of 102 which was a smart effort but he seemed to have his limitations exposed somewhat next time out at Royal Ascot in deeper company. The return to this venue may suit but he’ll want plenty of rain and he still has to prove himself over this trip.

Mt Leinster

The sole runner for Willie Mullins, who had several well fancied entries at the five day stage. He’s only had four runs on the flat producing form figures of 1211. In September last year he beat 101 rated Cape Gentleman in a listed contest by 5 lengths so the fact he runs off 102 here is interesting, especially as he was giving Cape Gentleman 11lbs that day.

He certainly looks well handicapped but he hasn’t been seen for 314 days and there has to be a ground concern as all his wins have come on soft ground and he’s been beaten all seven times he’s raced on anything better (even yielding). Yet another that will likely want rain.

Tribal Craft

He's been running very well this term and a 2 length defeat at the hands of Wonderful Tonight last time out at Goodwood is certainly no disgrace, even in receipt of 3lbs. That effort means he’s 4lbs well in here but once again, he’s one of those that surely wants rain having been kept to soft ground all season. Ignoring a three runner novice race win he’s been beaten in all eight runs that have come on good to soft or faster.

Fujaira Prince

Last year’s winner has only had one run this season so far and it was a fair 3rd over course and distance in listed company, leaving the impression he’d come on for the run. His win in this last year came on soft and he does prefer cut in the ground but he’s run well on good to firm and good ground previously, in fact he’s run well everytime he’s reached a racecourse given he’s yet to finish out of the first 3 in all 11 starts.

He’s up 6lbs from last year’s win which doesn’t rule him out and this has surely been the plan all season. He followed up last year’s victory with a 2nd place in the Irish St Leger so he’s clearly very useful but he could end up finding a couple better handicapped.

Mirann

Plenty of solid form in the book and stays the trip. Only 1lb higher than a decent 4th at Royal Ascot in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap. The ground could be a problem though. If it stay fast then he’s unproven on it and his best form is on softer. If it does soften then there are almost certainly better handicapped runners with give in the ground.

Away He Goes

He's 2lbs well in following a career best 2nd in the Goodwood Cup. That effort came on soft ground but his previous three wins have been on much faster ground so he could be capable of better yet, especially as he’s not fully exposed after 15 runs so far (only 4 of those have been at further than 12f).

He has work to do with a couple of these based on his run in the Silver Cup Stakes here but a bigger field and stronger pace will be in his favour and he’s not to be underestimated, for all he might be even better over 2 miles than this trip. Drawn extremely wide but that’s not necessarily a disadvantage.

Humanitarian

Another one that comes here off an absence, Humanitarian hasn’t been seen since winning over 12f at Newbury 11 months ago. That win came off a 455 day break meaning he’s had just the one run in the past 26 months. He’s seemingly one of the few that wants the rain to stay away here and he’s proven he can run well after a long break already. The horse he beat last time out, Dubai Future, has subsequently rated 11lbs higher and Humanitarian runs off just a 4lb higher mark here. He’s unproven over this trip but oth his runs at 12f suggest he’ll stay.

Quickthorn

Mudlark who won back to back races on testing ground earlier this season before finding things happening too quickly on good ground in the Silver Cup Stakes when behind several of these. He was poorly in at the weights that day and would be capable of a bold showing on soft or heavy here given his profile but it’s hard to see the ground softening enough in time for him. Something like the Old Borough Cup at Haydock (usually run on testing ground) would be a suitable target after this.

Roberto Escobarr

Very lightly raced still and a 4 length defeat of Matthew Flinders last season (rated just 1lb inferior to Roberto Escobarr now) suggests he could be well handicapped still. He’s 2 from 4 here at York, has won his only start on good to firm (beating a subsequent listed winner) and ran well last time out in the Silver Cup Stakes just half a length behind Fujaira Prince who he now gets 7lbs from. Roberto Escobarr was well placed in that contest but he does look decent value here.

Shanroe

A handicap winner over this trip last time out on good ground which took his flat record to 3 from 5. He’s won on soft ground but he’s also run several good races on good ground so underfoot conditions shouldn’t bother him. The handicap he won in October over this distance off an 18lb lower mark worked out well, which you’d hope for given his subsequent rise in the weights, plus the form of his latest win is pretty solid too. Very few negatives and he’s at the right end of the weights to progress further.

Alounak

Not the most consistent but he’s come good on his last two starts and he’s shaping as though worth trying over this trip. He seems pretty reliant on very soft ground though and the form of his Old Borough Cup win hasn’t really worked out so he could be vulnerable whatever the ground.

Global Storm

Slightly surprising to see him available at twice the price of Live Your Dream given they were separated by less than a length at Newmarket with Global Storm now 3lbs better off. His better form has generally come at Newmarket but it’s also generally come with a bit of cut in the ground too so if the ground was to ease even slightly he might have better claims of reversing that form. Global Storm did prove himself away from Newmarket when placing at Royal Ascot and given his consistent profile there will certainly be worse each way bets out there.

On To Victory

Won last year’s November Handicap in testing conditions and ran extremely well to get as close to Hukum as he did at Goodwood in May, surely running above his rating of 104. It was therefore a bit underwhelming that he was only 5th off this mark last time out in a handicap at that same venue when getting his ground again. Three of his four wins have come on soft, the other came on good to soft, so he needs rain to be at his best and he needs to improve on that latest run but he has a chance on his best efforts and Saffie Osbourne claims a useful 5lbs.

Pablo Escobarr

Runs against his full brother Roberto Escobarr here, who seems to have a decent chance if the rain stays away until after the race. Unsurprisingly he seems to have a similar going preference to his brother and he seems to have a similar level of ability too. He was rated 5lbs higher last year and hasn’t been the most consistent but he’s probably been campaigned with this in mind and should be cherry ripe now.

He was quite well fancied for this race last year but the ground went against him and connections have been playing with different headgear since. Cheekpieces go back on here for the first time since he was a good 3rd in a listed race over an inadequate trip last year and he’s been shaping as though this sort of trip and big field could be what he wants. Not very reliable but probably overpriced if the rain stays away.

Euchen Glen

A credit to connections who is extremely versatile. He put in a rare below par effort last time which is a slight concern but more of a concern is the fact that he’s 15lbs higher than when winning last year’s Old Borough Cup and 14lbs higher than when 5th in this race last year.

Blue Cup

A slightly frustrating sort who finally came good at Epsom in June when winning by a wide margin and he backed that up with a decent effort in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot when 4th. He ran less well last time out at Newbury and he’s on a stiff enough mark now having gone up 16lbs since his last win and this trip isn’t one he’s sure to see out.

Eagles By Day

Just one win outside of maiden company but it did come over course and distance on good ground in last season’s Silver Cup Stakes. He’s been highly tried since but without any success and in all probability his mark flatters him. He’s only had one run this season, perhaps by design, but he’s got plenty to find.

Makawee

A regular at this venue with a total of eight runs here and he generally seems to run her race with form figures of 15220333. She got 5lbs and an almost 3 length beating from Roberto Escobarr over course and distance earlier this season and is unlikely to reverse that form on these terms.

Max Vega

Still lightly raced and he’s looked better on softer ground to date. With that in mind he didn’t run too badly on seasonal debut on good ground in the Silver Cup Stakes behind several of these given he was poorly positioned, may have needed the run and would have find the surface lively enough. He was 2.25 lengths behind Away He Goes for example and he'll get 5lbs from him here.

Unfortunately if the rain comes and the ground goes in his favour this probably become a more competitive race and he could get found out still. On good to soft he’d represent fair value though.

Mekong

Not the force he was for Sir Michael Stoute and hasn’t really run to form since early last year. Difficult to see him bouncing back in such a competitive race.

The Verdict

A tremendously tricky puzzle to solve, complicated further by the possibility of the ground slowly easing throughout the day. At the time of writing this rain is likely to hit towards the end of the card (and after) so the race being run on ground softer than good seems unlikely for now. That would be a negative for the likes of Ilaraab, Mt Leinster, Mirann, Tribal Craft, Alounak, Quickthorn, On To Victory and Max Vega, amongst others. That’s almost half the field plus Fujaira Prince, Hamish and Global Storm would prefer the rains to come, even if they have run well on faster ground before.

Hamish in particular is very interesting still. He’s been extremely consistent to date on the racecourse and has even proven he can run well off this sort of absence before. He’s still a risky proposition though given the absence and the ground so unless there is sustained market support he’s probably not one to get too involved in at the price.

If the ground does stay on the fast side then Live Your Dream, Sonnyboyliston, Humanitarian, Away He Goes, Roberto Escobarr, and Pablo Escobarr should all run well. Humanitarian is very interesting and like Hamish, he’s proved himself off an absence before but still plenty has to be taken on trust. The Escobarr brothers are probably overpriced but neither are particularly reliable.

The Silver Cup Stakes could be a key bit of form for this given six of these ran in the race and the pick of those could be AWAY HE GOES. He seems a better horse with a run under his belt so should improve beyond several of those in that race (he doesn't have to improve much to beat Sonnyboyliston on these terms). He’s completely unexposed as a stayer, ran a career best last time out, will enjoy the big field scenario and he’s run well on fast and soft ground so for those of us having an early bet on the race he’s a safe candidate. On his last handicap run, earlier this year, he was runner up off an 8lb lower mark, beaten less than a length behind a horse that was 11lbs well in who enjoyed the run of the race more than Away He Goes, who in hindsight was also running over an inadequate trip. He’s officially 2lbs well in here but could still have more in hand than that. He's only a suggestion though in such a difficult race.

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