Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded three qualifiers...
...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 12.02 Southwell
- 1.12 Southwell
- 1.55 Musselburgh
- 3.55 Ludlow
...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...
Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.
We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.
Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.
We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.
As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...
...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...
...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...
Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.
Summary
If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.
Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.
Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
