Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 3.35 Chepstow
- 4.55 Hamilton
- 5.15 Leopardstown
- 6.35 Killarney
- 7.00 Epsom
- 8.40 Epsom
And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..
It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.
The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.
Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).
The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.
Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!
That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...
...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...
...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...
We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...
...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.
Summary
Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.
To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.
And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...
I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
