Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...
but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 4.30 Cork
- 4.50 Sandown
- 5.30 Beverley
- 6.50 Cork
- 9.00 Haydock
...and I think I'll focus upon the 4.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Listed race for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed two miles on good/good to firm ground and here's how they're expected to line up...
Surprisingly for a race of this grade, none of this field won last time out, but Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion were runners-up in Class 2 handicaps, whiulst Trueshan was third here over course and distance in a Group 3 contest. Run For Oscar, Sleeping Lion and Miss Cynthia are the three without a win in their last four starts, having lost each of their last 10, 10 and 12 starts respectively with the latter still a maiden.
Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion's chances of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by the step up in calss, whilst Roberto Escobarr's debut for Ian Williams also sees him step up from Class 2.
9st 2lbs is the standard allotted weight here, but the two females, Miss Cynthia and Night Sparkle each receiv a 5lb allowance, but this still leaves Quickthorn 2lbs better off than Trueshan at the head of the ratings with Sleeping Lion worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior to Quickthorn.
All bar the two females have won over this trip already with both Quickthorn and Roberto Escobarr having won over course and distance...
Instant Expert suggests that Sleeping Lion had has trouble getting his nose in front on good/good to firm ground and further inspection shows that his best form has been on the A/W at Kempton and he has also performed better over shorter trips. Elsewhere no real cause for concern with the highest drawn trio looking like the ones to focus here, not withstanding the fact that Roberto Escobarr might well need the run after a six month break.
Those drawn highest have actually fared a little worse than par here over longer distances, but it's not a huge bias and the draw really shouldn't be the reason why a horse loses a race that's two miles long...
...but pace might be a different issue completely with this type of race suiting front runners more than the other running styles.
If we then look at how this field has raced in their last couple of outings...
...we're looking at the same three runners from Instant Expert.
Summary
Instant Expert and Pace profiling have both led us to Quickthorn, Trueshan and Roberto Escobarr. The latter looks the weakest of the trio and will probably need the run anyway, but might not bad for a small E/W punt at 14/1 with Bet365, but the first two home here really should be Quickthorn and Trueshan and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with the latter.
Trueshan and Quickthorn were the last two home of five in the Gr 3 Sagaro Stakes at the start of May with Trueshan 11 lengths clear of Quickthorn, despite carrying 7lbs more. They meet again on equal terms, so I'm with Trueshan here.
The bookies disagree, mind you, with Quickthorn currently 13/8 and Trueshan at 9/4.
*prices taken from Bet365 at 4.15pm Thursday
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
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