Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...
...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 1.50 Downpatrick
- 4.07 Fontwell
- 4.30 Ascot
- 5.10 Newcastle
- 6.00 Dundalk
- 6.45 Newcastle
...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...
No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.
Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.
Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.
Instant Expert looks like this...
...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...
I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...
...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...
...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...
...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...
...with the top four of obvious interest.
Summary
The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉
Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.
Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.
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