Racing Insights, Friday 08/03/2024 geegeez.co.uk

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one UK qualifier plus one in Ireland...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

7.15 Dundalk
7.45 Dundalk
8.15 Dundalk
8.30 Newcastle

...which doesn't actually give me a great deal of choice, seeing as I don't really 'do' Irish racing. That said, Enola Grey's race above is the joint third-highest rated race in the UK and the day's second most valuable, so let's have a closer look at the 7.30 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard tapeta...

Sole LTO winner and bottom weight Danielsflyer comes here on a hat-trick after scoring over course and distance a week ago. Hartswood, Lahab, Hortzadar, Gainsbourg, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey and Star Shield have all won once in their last seven outings, whilst Paris Lights has lost seven in a row and Torchlight, King Sharja and L'Argent have yet to win after four, three and four attempts respectively; L'Argent was also 0 from 4 in France.

The card also indicates that Hartswood, featured horse Enola Grey and Star Shield are fast finishers, but the latter pair of that trio are both up one class here, as are King Sharja and L'Argent, whilst bottom-weight hat-trick seeker Danielsflyer is up two levels, making life tougher.

Better news for Torchlight, who drops two classes for her second handicap outing; Lahab also makes a secind handicap appearance, whilst it's handicap debut day for King Sharja, who runs for Ruth Carr for the very first time after leaving Richard Hannon's yard.

Not only is this his handicap and yard debut, it's also his first run in almost ten months, during which time he was gelded, so he might well need the run. Lahab and Hartswood are coming off short breaks of 52 and 61 days respectively and the rest of the field have all had at least one outing in the last month.

Half of the field (Hartswood, Hortzadar, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey, Star Shield and Danielsflyer) are course and distance winners, whilst Gainsbourg has also won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...but the overall picture isn't great for many of these. Kng Sharja makes an A/W debut and Star Shield's record on the A/W especially at track/trip is particularly poor. Thnakfully the place stats from those races above give me more to work with...

...from which, I'm going to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield from my enquiries leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 12 over a course and distance that has tended to suit the higher-drawn (7+) runners most...

...which is another tick for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight, who will run from widest of all. Mind you, there are no bends to contend with, so she just needs to aim straight! Those 150+ races above don't seem to have much of a pace bias and horses have been able to win with any running style...

Leaders have fared worst of all, but the difference in strike rates isn't huge and I wouldn't rule Lahab out of the running, simply because his recent runs have shown that he likes to set the pace...

Summary

A bit of a strange one today, as very few of these are in good form and the form horse is up two classes. We didn't get anything from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats led me to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield. We then discovered that those drawn highest seemed to have an advantage which was better news for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight and the lack of any distinct pace bias leaves all four in my thoughts.

Of the four, it's easy/sensible to discard Star Shield on current form, leaving me with my three vs the field, but I think that without any clear guidance from the toolkit (and this does happen, we're not perfect!), the smart move is to call no bet and walk away, move to your next race and that's what I'll do here. I think that my final three will all go well here, but I really can't call it in what look a super-competitive event, as exemplified by the 6pm market, where the top seven in the odds are separated by just 1.5pts...

Good luck whichever way you play this one, but I'll keep my money in my pocket.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Friday) for Saturday's racing, as I'm travelling down to Exeter so sort some University stuff out for my daughter, so I'll be back Sunday evening with a race preview for Monday. I hope you all have a great weekend.

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